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Aug 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025
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46:39
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. We appreciate you taking us in however
0:21
you do, through any one of those methods. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Biblin, everybody. Hey. Hey.
0:26
You think, you think, you think DoDo's trying to fix my posture, or do I just keep getting, uh, tall people sitting in this chair? Oh, is that what's happening? Yeah, I think it's, I think it's tall people. I'm short.
0:35
Man, you, you, you look great, man. So everybody comes by, I'm just gonna look- I'm just gonna hover like this for the first segment... I'll do that. [laughs] You know the most, who's the mo- Here's a trivia question.
0:43
Who's the most unsettling person, uh, VSiN host to sit in that when you have to interview them? 'Cause their posture is so unbelievable. Oh, I don't know. Who- Mike Samich, perfect posture.
0:52
S- Samich, yeah, that's a good call. Perfect posture. You think that's a perfect posture thing or, like, a back issue thing that, like, he had to adjust his posture? I think he's trying to send a message.
1:00
I think he's trying to intimidate. I think, no, I think he is, too. Yeah. I think he is, too. That's exactly what he's doing. Uh, packed Friday show.
1:05
Paul Carr, moving the chains, and when I say moving the chains, two and one two weeks ago to start the Premier League season, two and one last week. Or was the Premier League last week?
1:14
I, I don't even remember, but it's two two and ones in a row. Pr- Prem and Prem. Prem and Prem. Yeah. Oh, man, I forgot to update the, the, the record. Uh, we'll take a two and one from him every week- Yeah, yeah...
1:21
on his three-pack of, uh, soccer plays. We got Prem ticket, uh, Prem Picks from him coming up this hour, and it is Friday.
1:27
That means Falica and Fezzik, but because we've added a third hour, we got a, it's a little bit of a spread out now. Falica gets the top of hour number two, Fezzik gets the top of hour number three. Dr.
1:37
Bob is usually the third part of this, but we had him earlier in the week, and he's like, "Yeah, I'll see y'all next week. I got a wedding to go to," was the exact quote I got from him.
1:45
I do like the- Cool, fine, pick a wedding over us. That's fine... uh, I do like the guest planning by me and you sometimes.
1:50
We're like, yesterday me and Gil were sitting around after the show, we're like, "Did Bob say something about not being on Friday? I think he did." "Hey, Bob, we'll see you Friday, right?" He's like, "I'll see you guys."
1:58
[laughs] Uh- Yeah, he definitely said on Tuesday, "See you next week." Yeah. And I was like, "All right."
2:03
Uh, Falica, though, with all his college football thoughts as he heads into a, uh, a big noon kickoff at Fox Sports with Texas and Ohio State, but I really do wonder if just this one time he'd rather be back at ESPN for Lee Corso's finale.
2:17
Uh, 'cause I know Lee meant so much to him and means so much to him, uh, and so we'll talk to Chris about that and, of course, all of his picks in college football and beyond.
2:25
Uh, and then Fezzik, a whole bunch of stuff on Fezzik Friday, everything that's on his mind in the sports betting world, and there is a lot on his mind.
2:32
AFC South, we'll get to that as well on the show, and how about some September wins in Major League Baseball? Yeah. We'll do that, uh, here in about 15 minutes.
2:40
Um, tennis play's coming up momentarily, but first- Who's, uh, did, uh, did you catch anybody else besides Caesars with them posted yesterday? Yeah, Circa, right behind you, buddy. Oh, wow. They had them up already.
2:49
Yeah, just turn around. They're there. Okay. Um- Made a b- made my bet this morning. Oh, you did? Made my bet. Nice. Also made my bed. Didn't do... That sounded like I said I made my bed. I didn't make my bed.
3:00
Yeah, it did sound like that. [laughs] That's a lie. Uh, but I made my bet. That's a lie. [laughs] Yeah.
3:04
Uh, t- okay, tennis picks coming up, another, uh, nice winning day at, uh, the US Open yesterday with, uh, two more dogs hitting, plus 175 and a plus 178. We'll get to that, but we got to start with Micah Parsons here.
3:15
The, the thing that I don't know that we really thought would happen, you know, with, uh, McLaurin got signed by Washington, Hendrickson got signed by Cincinnati, they worked it out however they worked out, but Heyward just decided, "Okay, I'll play for you Steelers," and the only one looming was Micah Parsons in Dallas, which we said many times here seemed a little more contentious than all of them, and that was saying something, 'cause it certainly wasn't pleasant in the other situations.
3:39
But the result ends up being that Jerry Jones has decided to trade Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers.
3:46
As I'm sure you know by now, Cowboys receive a 2026 and 2027 first-round pick, so two first-rounders, and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, a Pro Bowler himself, but who's not a youngster, right?
3:58
Been in the league for 10 years. And with that, by the way, Parsons, 188 milli over four years, 136 of which are guaranteed. It's like Kelly's contract here at VSiN, similar guarantees. I cannot imagine.
4:12
If we got paid that way, oh, boy. Oh, boy.
4:15
Oh, I was just telling you off-air, at, at KBL in the '90s, we once, oh, we came one number away collectively as a station from hitting the first Powerball that was over $100 million. Yeah.
4:23
And we said, "Oh, my God, if we had won this, half, or half the people would've left, half would've stuck around and just been horrible humans. It would've cr- it would've destroyed the station." Anyway.
4:31
And it's just, you can't do this everywhere in corporate America- [laughs]... 'cause I just would, like, the, you would not incentivize me to work harder, you know? Oh, I, I think Mike is incentivized.
4:38
Uh, here's how the odds moved on the news.
4:41
Packers to win the NFC North goes from two to one to plus 165, to win the NFC from nine to one to six to one, to win the Super Bowl from 19 to one to 12 to one, and for Jordan Love to win MVP from 25 to one to 20 to one.
4:55
How about that? Cowboys other direction. Before the trade, plus 650 to win the NFC East, now they're eight to one.
5:02
Cowboys to win the NFC from 25 to one to 30 to one, and Cowboys to win the Super Bowl from 55 to one to 70 to one. Kelly and I, we, uh, went too quickly on our NFC power rankings. Yeah. Yes- yesterday we did them.
5:14
I had the, uh, Packers fifth and I had the Cowboys 10th. Guess what they are today. Third and 14th. Yep, sounds about right.
5:23
I have only the Eagles and Lions better than the Packers now, and the Cowboys drift all the way down where only New Orleans and Carolina are worse. Seriously.
5:35
Cowboys, are they, are the proverbial over team this year, the Cowboys? All offense, no defense? Oh, I have m- I have made a list of those teams to go over later. Yeah.
5:44
That is my single biggest takeaway from all of our off-season NFL prep, of h- the ridiculous amount of teams- Bengals, Cowboys... that have, that have average to above average offenses, Gil- Yep...
5:57
that their defenses are then below average to terrible. Yeah.
6:02
And it will take weeks before I even consider any of those teams in an under Well, here's what Cowboys great Michael Irvin, Hall of Famer, had to say about the Micah Parsons trade on his podcast I know he,
6:17
he loved Michael Parsons. So in order for us to be right here, something had to go down that hurt Jerry personally to make this
6:34
crazy, dumb move. The Gambler and his Cowboys is the series that is out right now.
6:52
This is a gamble The Gambler should not have taken. Wow. Wow.
7:00
Cowboys great Michael Irvin, who was just on ESPN yesterday promoting that m- uh, series, saying there's no chance that Jerry Jones will trade Micah Parsons, and then that happened. Wow. Wow.
7:10
Um, my initial reaction, and I think my, my, my biggest conviction on this is you cannot trade a generational player like this before his prime. Right?
7:23
The only player besides Reggie White to go four straight seasons with 12 sacks in each of those seasons. Um, multiple Pro Bowler after being Rookie of the Year. Game changer. You cannot trade a, a player like this and
7:42
justify it to me. But let me give the other side of it, just for, for argument's sake. Yeah, sure. The other side of it is- There's another side...
7:51
the other side of it is, and I got this from a couple Cowboys fans, and this could fall under the category of are they being serious or are they trying to cope?
8:01
And the argument ag- And the argument for this is, well, what if you determined that you are not a- anywhere close to being a Super Bowl team, not anywhere close to being a Super Bowl team,
8:12
and you just have to say to yourself, "Well, if we're not close to being a Super Bowl team, are we really gonna allocate $47 million a year to make Micah Parsons the highest paid non-quarterback in the history of the NFL?"
8:24
Which is what the Packers ended up doing with him.
8:26
And so if you take that position, this is actually a very responsible move by the Cowboys because they got two first round picks out of it, albeit probably later in the first round, and they get a Pro Bowler in Kenny Clark to boot.
8:43
And this may allow them now to tank for Arch, right, in the process as well. Mm-hmm. That's the other side of the argument.
8:52
See, but that, that one doesn't- I, here's my, here, here's my counter to that counter before you chime in. Yeah.
8:55
My counter to that counter is even if you believe that, do you really believe Jerry Jones did that out of being a rational mind or because his ego got hurt and he just happened to fall into that argument?
9:07
Uh, it's, it's also, sorry, BS because the timing. You would've done this before the draft- Before the draft... earlier in the sea- uh, earlier in the off season- Yep...
9:16
when you would've had more suitors and could've gotten more back for Micah Parsons. Yep. And I do think you could've, they could've gotten more back.
9:22
I, this is, it's not a complete unfair when you just look ba- uh, look at what they got back. Like, there are some Cowboys... The Cowboys fans can justify, "Hey, we've got something to, to look forward to in the future.
9:33
We didn't get completely fleeced," but this could've and should've been better if you were actually gonna trade Micah Parsons. It, it wasn't Luka Dončić bad, speaking of which. Right. Dallas, great summer, huh?
9:42
God bless. Great summer you're having. Luka Dončić gone, Micah Parsons gone. Two crown jewels of your professional team athletes.
9:51
Uh, Luka, they got, you know, arguably less for, but Micah, I agree with you, probably could've, probably could've gotten more. Yeah.
9:58
But I do, I, you know, even if you were to lean into the Cowboys fan coping argument of this and like, well, actually, you know, maybe...
10:06
'Cause I said it about Washington and I was trying to be rational about the McLaurin thing, like, yeah, but we, you want your GM to GM, and maybe this is the first time that [laughs] they took the position that Jerry Jones actually did something as a GM.
10:17
My counter is, yeah, 'cause his ego got hurt somewhere along the line. As Michael Irvin said, he must've got hurt personally. And d- let's not act like he did this 'cause he wanted to.
10:27
He fell into this, if that's your position. Oh, come on, Gil. You clearly didn't see Jerry Jones presser then yesterday. [laughs] The, him and Stephen said at least 97 times that we need to focus on stopping the run.
10:39
Okay? Not, it wasn't pass rush or nothing. Oh, God, how many times? We gotta stop, we gotta focus on stopping the run. Uh, Jerry did drop in there the team might be better. Oh, stop it. So we're, yeah, that was said.
10:49
Just stop it. And, um, both him and, both Jerry and Stephen both, uh, both said don't rule them, uh, don't rule out them making a big trade at some point this, uh, season. Oh, that's exciting.
11:00
Dude, you already made your big trade and you lost the crown jewel of your, of your franchise. Jerry's getting up there. You- Some of that was a little- You cannot trade this dude. I don't care what anybody tells me.
11:08
You can't. You can't. You can't. He can't. W- what did I text you yesterday? Again, bu- Like, you can't draft someone perfectly, a, a can't-miss prospect. Yes. And guess what? You didn't miss.
11:17
He was awesome, and then four years in- You messed it up... sorry, see ya. So bad. And then to someone in the conference. So bad. Again, another highlight from the counterargument.
11:30
Well, if you can't get it to third down on defense, might as well get rid of him. Yeah. You stink on first and second down, and he can't really show his talents on third. Stop it. Just stop it.
11:41
Tennis picks and MLB Most Wins in September next on a Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] The numbers tell the story.
11:58
They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a num-... game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
12:05
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
12:14
Producer number nine, Kelly Midland, so much more than a producer. Hey. He- what's going on? What's happening to you? You on third puberty? [laughs] I, I had to, uh, I had to, I had to ma- I, I don't...
12:26
We had a open rolling problem too. Oh, really? You didn't, you didn't see my great acting just now. Oh. No, I did not. Yeah. Hmm. Show rejoined just on me. Really? Yeah. Oh, did not see that.
12:36
Maybe we should do that for Right On The Rig. Yeah. [laughs] It's a good way to catch us off guard. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets that beat of the book.
12:43
Chris Heath, "Based on Fezz's passion for '80s, '90s wrestling, I assume he's a fan of some other form of sports entertainment." Uh, Bama Sluggers has a question for Fezzik when he comes on later.
12:52
"Can you ask Fezz if a 14, 12-point teaser at minus 120, uh, minus 110 a good option for the NFL?" Oh, he has, he has comments on that.
13:01
Brian Schaefer, again, he says, "Minnesota and the Bills," oh, on our Exacta segment. He goes, "Minnesota and the Bills just to meet, a match up at the Super Bowl, 50 to 1." He says, "Not a bad pizza money bet."
13:13
And then JC is, uh, showing me a, a little GIF of, uh, Color Me Badd. He says, "Young Gil in the '90s trying to push his CD out the trunk. I'm here all week." Ah, Color Me Badd.
13:25
What's your favorite Color Me Badd song, Kelly? I do not know. Okay. I'm gonna go I Adore Mia Moore. Thanks for asking. Um, we have Mr. Felica on the show? No, we do not. We do not. Oh, Mr.
13:36
Fel- We're, we're, we're efforting Christopher Felica. Uh- Li- live from a Fox commercial set, I believe... known colloquially as The Bear. That's coming up on the show. Um, NFC, uh, excuse me, AFC South.
13:47
Do you want me to get an AFC South team in? Do you want me to do that while we wait for Chris? Sure. Do you wanna do that? Let's start, 'cause we're gonna talk AFC South a little later on the show.
13:54
Uh, but let's start at, uh, well, [laughs] okay, now I'm told it is Chris Felica. There's your tease for the exciting AFC South coming up later on the show, along with Steve Fezzik.
14:02
Uh, Chris Felica joins us now from Fox Sports, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:07
He's also, of course, not only on big noon Saturdays, Texas-Ohio State tomorrow, but also the emperor of the Bear Bets empire, podcast empire over there at Fox Sports, @ChrisFelica, F-E-L-I-C-A, on Twitter.
14:20
How you doing, man? Where you, where you calling from? I, I'm in, I'm in our meeting room.
14:25
We're waiting to knock out a bunch of promotional stuff and marketing obligations for the, uh, for the show, and I'm told that we have a specific order that we need to go in.
14:33
So, um, I, uh, my, my spot in the lineup has not come up yet, so we'll, uh, we'll, we'll knock this out before we head down there. Okay.
14:39
Well, I wanna start with this, and I, and your Fox cohorts there, if you can sort of shut them out from this particular question. [laughs] I know you love being at Fox. I know this is awesome, Texas-Ohio State.
14:48
I know this is the beginning of a, of a great college football season over there at Fox.
14:52
But if you could, for this one Saturday, if you could be back on the set of College GameDay because it's your buddy Lee Corso's last day, would you choose that option? Oh, i- in, in a heartbeat. I, I think what,
15:06
and I was thinking about this, uh, last night, and I'm 53 years old. I was a part of that show for 27 years. That sh- I, I was a part of that show for more than half my life. Wow.
15:17
I, I mean, it, it, it's obvious that all of those people, uh, involved in that show are much more than, than friends. I c- I consider them family.
15:26
And, uh, li- like, like I've said, Lee is responsible for giving me the, the, the nickname Bear. Uh, he, he, Kirk and I were having, having brunch one day, and Lee walked by us, and, and then, and looked at the table.
15:39
A- a- any- anyone who's been out with Kirk and I know that any dead space on a table, uh, is a wasted space. Like, you need to fill every inch of the table with food.
15:48
[laughs] So, so Lee looks at the table, he looks at Kirk, he looks at the table again, and he looks at me, and he just says, "Look at you, Felica. You're just like a bear. You eat, you sleep- [laughs]...
15:59
you poop, you sleep again- [laughs]... you do it all over again." [laughs] See, I bet you, you thought I was gonna say the S word- I did... on, on, on Potty Mouth Friday. Thank you. That's right.
16:08
On, on Potty Mouth Friday, but you, but you, but you're welcome.
16:10
Yeah, he's responsible for giving me this, this nickname Bear, and this little persona, and who's to know that m- m- my career doesn't take off because I had this adorable little, cute little catchy nickname?
16:21
But no, he, he is, he, he's great. And just to give you, like, the personally, on a personal level, like the type of guy that he is, I mean, back when I was...
16:29
I wasn't making much money in, uh, uh, however many years ago it was. And
16:34
I, I'm sitting down in, in the meeting room looking at, like, flights for vacations and how much pri- how much they cost, and I'm kind of mumb- mumbling out loud like, "Ah, it's too much money.
16:44
Let me see how many miles they are, and, and I, I need, like, 30,000 more miles," or whatever it is for that. And, and Lee's, Lee's kind of wandering around, pacing, 'cause Lee could never sit still. Uh, and, and
16:56
I di- uh, no, I wasn't, like, talking out loud so he could hear me, but I'm gonna debate. He, he, he hears, and when I'm, when I'm done, he comes over to me, and he's like, "How many miles do you need, Felica?
17:07
Just call, just call Dawn on, on, on Monday and have her take care of it. Just take them out of my account so you and Molly can go, go on vacation."
17:14
So it's like, I, I wasn't doing it to have him, like, pick up miles to, to give me to go on a vacation, but that's just the, uh, the, the, the type of guy he was. Uh, just a good, genuine person.
17:25
And, and I'm sorry, one more, one, one more Corso story- Yeah... which, which the betting public, I think- Please... will, will, will appreciate.
17:31
Like, one of, one of the weekly pre-meeting routines was, like, w- the meeting started at 9:00 AM, 10:00 AM, whatever time, uh, it did.
17:41
Lee would always be there early, 'cause coach's time meant the meeting started at 10:00, you were there at 9:45.
17:48
So, like, I would typically be there, and when I would walk in the room, the first thing Lee would do would be to walk over to me and kind of, kind of lean in and be like, "For, for my friends at the country club."
18:01
Like, I would always have to give him, like, one pi- Who my favorite pick was, uh, o- o- o- of the week, and he would kind of lean in, lean in with, with, with, with one ear, and it turned in, he had to lean in with his good ear, uh, 'cause the hearing that, that he lost after the stroke.
18:13
So, uh, L- Lee always said people, people only care about who's gonna win and by how many.
18:18
So, uh, he, uh, he certainly understood the, uh, the importance of, uh, like when he would pick a, a team to win by, uh, a touchdown and a safety, th- that, that was significant to some. Significant to some.
18:29
I honestly, he, he is an American treasure. Uh, Lee Corso, 90 years old, his final College GameDay tomorrow, uh, for the Texas-Ohio State game after 38 seasons, 38 plus seasons on College GameDay.
18:44
So you said you spent half your l- over half your life there. He spent more than a third of his life there, you know, uh, as well.
18:50
And it's just, again, College GameDay, and I'll say this again, Chris, of all the things that ESPN ever did, maybe 30 for 30s, maybe there's something else I'm forgetting in there, but College GameDay was the institution we all loved beyond, b- beloved.
19:02
I don't think there's anybody I've ever heard say, "Ah, this show is t-" Like everybody loved College GameDay. And so, um, anyway, a tribute to Lee Corso tomorrow.
19:11
It's gonna be, uh, emotional to watch, more so for you than anybody else. About Texas and Ohio State, this is flipping as people thought it would. We're showing a pick 'em right now. I saw. It had to a pick, right?
19:22
Well, some- I think it's even ticking Texas's way in some spots, but consensus it's a pick right now. Wow. Circo went to a favorite late last night- Yeah... after taking a 500K bet- Yeah...
19:32
and then it got bet back to pick 'em. There you go. I hear it's Circo. So what's the deal? Where do you stand on this game tomorrow? I hate the game from a betting standpoint.
19:43
Um, I came on a few weeks back a- and talked about betting under 50 and a half.
19:49
So I think it's my, it's my, uh, to quote my, channel my inner Gil Alexander from Washington Na- Washington Nationals World Series obligation now to kind of bet a little bit over 42 and a half or 47, uh, look, look for a nice little four or five-point middle there, uh, on the, uh, on the total.
20:06
Look, I mean, I, I could tell you w- whatever. Like, I think ultimately Ohio State will win.
20:13
I almost think it's a little bit of an advantage for Ohio State, the fact that they have a new offensive coordinator, uh, in Brian Hartline, who has never called plays before.
20:21
I'm sure Ryan Day will be in his ear helping him out. And a new defensive coordinator in Matt Patricia, who you really don't know what he's going to do defensively.
20:29
So I think that kind of has Texas a little, like, on edge. That element of surprise might be a, uh, a factor. It's all on the Ohio State offensive line.
20:37
Uh, if they can protect and give Julian Sayin time to throw the ball, I think they're gonna be able to make plays in this game. But, uh,
20:46
if I h- push comes to shove, if I had to make a pick of the game, uh, I would pick Ohio State just 'cause I do think Texas might have a few more question marks, certainly maybe on the interior of their defensive line.
20:59
All right. What's your, uh, what's your favorite play tomorrow? Maybe it's on the Fox end. I don't know. Uh, Ohi- uh, USC. Uh, yeah, I, I saw I think USC up to 36 now or 35 and a half. I still like it.
21:13
Uh, I, I see all the makings of like 49-7, uh, USC against Missouri State. A completely overmatched opponent. I think the SC defense, uh, is gonna be really good.
21:24
Uh, last year with Anthony Lynn in his first year, they did a good job improving the defense. This year I think they're gonna be even better. Uh, quarterback obviously will continue to develop throughout the year.
21:36
They really like their, their, their, their running back, Room, I have to say Room just, just for you.
21:41
[laughs] But, uh, a- again, this is the type, this is the type of game that I think they can put a big number up, excite their fan base, get ready for the year.
21:48
It almost feels like SC is a little bit under the radar, and there aren't as many expectations for, for SC as there normally are.
21:57
And that might work out to be their, to be their benefit, uh, th- this year, 'cause usually it's, like SC's- Yeah... overhyped, overhyped, overhyped.
22:04
But because they couldn't seal the deal on so many of those games, uh, in the, in the fourth quarter last year, feels like they're being a little f- bit forgotten about just because you have three legitimate national title contenders in the Big 10.
22:15
But, uh, SC minus the, uh, 36, I guess, whatever, we'll, we'll go with that now, uh, i- is my favorite play of Saturday. Favorite play of Saturday. How about today? It sounds like you're leaning into that.
22:28
I'm leaning into Sunday. Ah. Uh, I am, I am scared at how much I like Miami plus the points against Notre Dame. Sure. I'm scared how much I like them on the money line against Notre Dame.
22:40
Uh, the, the, the last time, well, the only time in the last 10, 15 years I've been this excited about a football season, Aaron Rodgers lasted three plays for the Jets. So, uh- [laughs]...
22:49
I'm sure, uh, should go well, uh, for, for me as a football fan, but I think people are going to be surprised at how good the Miami offensive line is and how revamped their secondary is, uh, especially in this, uh, uh, uh, on the defensive side of the ball, they had their secondary revamp.
23:07
Defensive line will be good. Bacon has lost a ton of weight. Uh, Mario Cristobal has done a, an unbelievable job with his staff just stacking talent the last three years.
23:17
A- and I think that, along with plugging in certain spots in the portal, uh, I think this is the year that it really pays off. I, I love them Sunday night.
23:24
I hope, um, I hope I'm sitting there on Sunday with a, uh, a Liverpool win over Arsenal in the morning and a Big C's win over Notre Dame on Sunday night. Do we get you for one more segment, Chris, or are you bouncing?
23:36
Love some ice cream. Um- Ice cream... I, I, l- let, I, I, ice cream. Let, let me, let me find out. All right. I'll let you know if I went for break. Ice cream. Maybe he'll stay for one more. We'll find out.
23:45
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:57
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Thanks for tuning in however you do. We are grateful.
24:08
Gil Alexander here, Kelly behind the glass. Because- It is time, ladies and gentlemen, for Fezzik Fridays. Hit it.
24:16
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. Aw, yeah.
24:26
Stevie Fezzik, everybody, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. How you doing? It's that time. Love this time of year. Football. Thank goodness.
24:35
I know it's that, and how we know it's that time is that on our group, uh, text with, uh, Will Hill, Chris Fallica, and Todd Wisniew, you have no tolerance for any outside topics at this time of year. That's right.
24:46
Someone posts that Belgium's in the Congo, and I say, "We'll talk about it in April." [laughs] Great. Why April? Can't we do it in February for God sakes? Why April? No, we- March Madness still?
24:55
I'm, we got- Part of it... we got- Okay... Wisniew's like, like nightly basis, he's gotta bet his, you know, college football live. He has no time to talk about anything but sports. A- April's good. Let's do April.
25:07
All right. Um, we got a lot to talk about here, Steve. I don't know if you know this, college football and pro football. College football in full effect.
25:14
Now by the way, was any takea- here's the thing: we've, we've only had, we had week zero obviously, and then we had 17 football games in college football yesterday, and I'm sure, I haven't heard this, but I'm guessing if I go around, people are like, "Oh, did you see?
25:27
Everything went under. Da, da, da, da, da, da." You have something to say about quick reactions to things like this?
25:32
Yeah, so historically actually, not the 40-point favorites plus, but the, but the favorites have, just typically do well in week zero- In the early season... and week one. Yes. But the unders do well as well.
25:45
And so there's reinforcement for me that, hey, look to play unders, look to play alternative unders in terms of derivatives, team totals under.
25:53
When you see a game dropping like Georgia Tech, Colorado, and it's 55 and then it goes 53, 51, normally like if it's week eight, I'd say pass it. All right? Mm-hmm.
26:04
Week zero or week one, I'm like, get, get a chunk of it. Get a piece of it.
26:08
S- Find a way to get in on the unders because not only did the, the main board games go six and one to the under, but like all the, the extra games and the, a- and, and the, the added games, they went under the tune, to the tune of two-thirds and it wasn't close, frankly.
26:24
Like there were seven games. So Rutgers game soared over. Yeah, more than two-thirds of the games went under, more than two-thirds of the underdogs covered. Yeah, so the dogs covering I think is an aberration.
26:33
The unders I don't feel is an aberration. I think you can- Got it... take this going forward, and think about this: six of the seven games, I mean, there are games lined at 60, opened 65, 61.
26:42
There, they, I think only one game get over 43. I mean, these games went not just under, but way under. I'm still waiting for Miami of Ohio to score. Uh, Minnesota got a pick six.
26:52
Uh, Buffalo got a pick six against Minnesota. [laughs] They still didn't score because somehow the guy- Boise, Boise State... got caught from behind. Boise State was terrible yesterday. Uh, it was just awful. Yeah.
27:00
And, and, and I do think if there's a lesson in the Boise, I know, I think Boise played one good game in Georgia once, but when, when you get a team [laughs] going to the heat and humidity of South Florida, um, and, and traveling multiple time zones like Boise, they just wore out in that game completely.
27:15
Okay, so your sentence there was a good clarification, which is, uh, while the underdogs are hitting, typically these are favorite weeks, so don't, don't read into that too much, but the unders, go with it. Yes. Okay.
27:28
Very much so. Um, one of your favorite topics, I always caution people, I'm like Steve Fezzik, nice in, nice in real life. Eh, Twitter Fezzik, not so much, @fezziksports. Uh,
27:40
what is your l- what is your latest sort of heat check on the sports betting industry? What is, what is g- stuck, stuck in your craw right now? I, I think we all need to be careful.
27:50
I think I need to be careful because we're all gonna make mistakes. Like the, the, this is, I mean, so think about just in terms of betting, even the best bettors in the world are gonna be wrong 45% of the time.
28:00
So, um, you can have basic principles and, and things you, you stand for, but there's always exceptions to the rule.
28:06
There's always gonna be that rare time when it's right to play Moneyline parlays, when it's right to buy points, when it's right to play teasers even at bad odds.
28:13
So I think I, I, I was thinking to myself driving and I was like, "Be, um, Stevie, like be, b- b- don't try to say like a sweeping statement of this is right or this is wrong because typically you're gonna, you're, you're gonna be incorrect.
28:25
Be more flexible." Be more flexible. Uh, specifically with you, um, you're having a bad year in baseball? Yeah, baseball I just looked. I'm down 51 units- Oh... after winning over 30 units- Ooh...
28:39
the, each and every year before. So I had a three-year run where I won over 100 units and I was like, "Why am I having such a bad baseball?" And I know why. Because I correctly identified the value in the favorites
28:51
and that it was a, a league of haves and have-nots, and guess what's happened this year? All the haves have really [laughs] had bad second halves.
29:00
And so, um, fading teams like the Dodgers, like the Yankees, like the Mets, backing teams like Colorado and the White Sox would've made you a lot of money.
29:10
I just never got onto those trains, so b- I didn't do a good enough job. It's interesting, you know, uh, as you know, before I was a primarily a tennis bettor years ago, I was primarily a baseball bettor.
29:20
Um, did nothing else really b- besides betting baseball for years and I n- and you were an aggregator of my plays. Aggregator's a kind word, Stevie, but I notice you play a lot of favorites.
29:31
Has this always been your thing to play a lot of favorites? 'Cause that is r- rife with peril. Y- y- you know, it's interesting because I was, I was like, "Look at, me, I know more than the..."
29:40
Because I came out like four years ago and I'm like all these square balls, like these dinos keep saying you can't win p- you know, playing any, any favorite above, you know, minus 140.
29:51
And I was like, I was crushing it playing, you know, the minus 180s and the, and the minus one and a half run lines, and the market just wasn't correcting how bad...
30:00
Look at last year, the Chicago White Sox and, and look at like, you know, teams like Colorado and, uh, and how the league had, uh, there was no parity. Teams were suddenly losing 100-plus games.
30:09
Famously remember when we were at the M and we were talking about, will one team lose 100 games? Yeah. And we made that bet, and like five teams that year lost 100 games. It, it was the easiest win ever.
30:19
Maybe it was four teams.
30:20
Uh- And that just hasn't happened this year, so I correctly adjusted to play favorites three years ago, four years ago, two years ago, and I incorrect- and I did not make the adjustment this year, so that's on me.
30:33
You could say the same about your contest performance as well? It hasn't gone as well recently? That contest has been good. Oh, okay. So- You know, I, I mean, I mean, two years ago, I finished 21st in Millions.
30:42
I, I, I got the piece of, of, of, yeah, I got the 400,000 from Survivor. I finished second in the Westgate Super Contest, um, the season win contest last year. Yeah.
30:52
And I'm in contention in the MLB season win contest, you know, this year. So, um, I, I mean, I can't, I can't complain. I did well in the VSIN NBA contest. Right. So, um, but, but, it's a great point,
31:05
I was in the VSIN College Football NFL, um, [smacks lips] invitational- Right... not once, but twice, and I sucked in that. I was, like, around 500 last year. Mm-hmm. And two years ago, I was below 500.
31:18
So I mean, that was unheard of for me to be that bad, um, in contests, like, back in, in, you know, the 2000s. So what's going on? I think I was a little lazy.
31:29
Played a, played some off numbers without really thinking about them that much. Should've examined that more, and I think the market's just gotten harder to beat. The combination of those two.
31:39
Um, maybe this isn't the proper segue have we ever, after we talked about a couple, uh, sideways performances from you as, in certain things, but let's talk, let's get one college football play and one pro football play here.
31:50
Uh, you have a first quarter under in the Georgia Tech/Colorado game. Is that right? Yeah, and I think, I've, obviously, Colorado a different team. Travis Hunter is gone. Sanders is gone.
32:00
They're not gonna be nearly as good, and they're gonna be much worse on offense, and the market understands that, and that total was, like, 55, and I, I don't, I didn't check what it's down to, whether it's 50, um, for the game.
32:11
So I'm gonna play the first quarter under. I'm sure the 10 and a half's gone. Probably wouldn't get a 10 on... As long as we can get a 10 on first quarter under.
32:17
If there's another theme that I took away, was that these teams are just so conservative to start the year.
32:24
They're trying not to turn the ball over, make the big mistake right out of, um, the summer, and they're not, the offense, offenses are not just, um, struggling, but they're very conservative.
32:36
So we'll go first quarter under 10. Under 10. I, we, I see you had a 10 and a half minus 130, but that's not ra- roundly available. I'm, I'm guessing that it's not- Yeah... it's no longer available. Yeah.
32:46
I'm trying to be conservative and give out plays that people can actually bet. All right. Here's one. Week one in the NFL, you like the Falcons as a dog against- Yeah, the Tampa Bay-... the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah.
32:55
I, you know, I'm, had an epiphany here. I'm thinking about this.
32:58
So last year, Tampa Bay was supposed to win, eh, about be a 500 team, and it was the Falcons, they had that easy schedule, and their season win number was nine and a half to 10, right? Mm-hmm.
33:07
The Falcons basically last year are what Tampa Bay is this year, all right? What they, uh, real high expectations. What has really changed? Well, Tampa had that great offensive year.
33:17
Bucky Irving, you know, was, became a stud running back, and Baker had a great year, and they had, uh, uh, the receivers were so good. But Tampa's injured, so you know, Worsley their lineman is down.
33:29
Um, of course these guys are coming back. Godwin is injured. Uh, McMillan is injured. Mike Evans is, like, 100, and they're gonna wanna get him 1,000.
33:37
He's, he's gonna set the NFL record for 1,000-yards seasons if he gets it this year. I think that's gonna hurt them.
33:43
I think they're gonna [laughs] throw too much to Evans each and every week thinking in the back of their mind, "Oh, we love him. We'd love for him to get this record."
33:49
The bottom line is the m- the, if Penix is okay, I'm not sure that Tampa's any better than Atlanta, and Atlanta's home.
33:57
Atlanta's getting plus two and a half, and I would never, asymmetric risk, I would never, ever give out a plus two and a half minus 105. Why? 'Cause I can get a plus three potentially.
34:07
There's no way I'm gonna get a plus three. If, if, if a plus three pops up, like, there's [laughs] like, people are gonna be, like, flying in from LA to bet plus three.
34:15
They're gonna go crazy because it, it, it has so much value. So bold prediction, this game will close Pick 'em, and we can take plus two and a half reduce vig.
34:22
Uh, I'm on Atlanta as well, plus two and a half in that ballgame. Uh, real quick with it, we flashed up on the screen that you were on Texas plus two, but you don't wanna...
34:29
You, you're not recommending that pl- obviously, the line has moved now a bit, but you, you don't- It, it- You wouldn't come on and recommend it anymore. Why? Because it's not plus two anymore.
34:36
Well, no, but I'm, but it sounded... I, obviously, that point, but it, that's what I was saying before. But it sounded like you just don't feel as strongly about the team either, it sounded like. Ooh, ooh.
34:45
So let me clarify that. I'm, I feel every bit as strong. Okay. I think that this is truly a 50/50 game. Okay.
34:51
So if I can get either team, I'll let the vagaries, this is my friend Leon, um, the eight of clubs method of betting, okay?
34:59
He's let the wind blow a line one way or another depending upon what syndicate likes what and who's betting the most money. If I can get Texas plus 107, I like Texas. If I get Ohio State plus 105, I like Ohio State.
35:12
I truly feel it's a coin flip. It's close. It's a 50/50 game. Thus, when Texas was plus two, I liked them. Okay. Thank you for the clarification, 'cause all fair, it sounded a little different than that. Mm.
35:22
So, um, and Bob, by the way, I don't know if you heard this, he's got Texas three points better than Ohio State, but a trend takes him off this game. He does not playing Texas against Ohio State. Fair enough.
35:31
He's not playing at all. More with Fezzik, uh, contests that he loves, survivor talk, and more Numbers Game, VSIN, the sports betting network.
35:39
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35:54
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36:02
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36:14
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36:26
Uh, we have, uh- And we'll lead into questions from Fezzik here among these tweets, but let me get to these, uh, first. By the way, first of all, the first of the two tennis picks, Emma Raducanu with a no-show today.
36:36
She gets rolled by, uh, by Elena Rybakina. That doesn't even come close to hitting the over. Someone who watched that has got to, uh, tell me. I, I've got a few tweets about how Raducanu was just getting rolled in that.
36:47
That is completely out of the blue to me, so sorry about that one, guys. They can't all be winners. Uh, this is- Young Gil went four and one with a bunch of underdogs the day before. Uh- I believe...
36:58
three and two, and then three and one, yeah. Yep. Yeah. Well, you, I got the point there. Thank you. Sean Fox plays, "There ought to be a stat of expected completions given how good or poor the throw location was."
37:08
Oh, talking about the football previews. "Everyone brings up wide receiver drops, but how many of those throws were actually catchable, as that guy has no idea where the ball is going when released?"
37:17
Yeah, they try to be, I know it's subjective to a point, but they try to be pretty detailed about what could have been a catch and what shouldn't. But you're right, there is some subjectivity, uh, involved in that.
37:27
Uh, Scott, New York Mets 16, "Monie in the middle, lost on Kelly." I hear you, Gil. Thank you for that. Um, I'm glad someone picked up on it.
37:35
Tom F., "You know it feels great heading into a long weekend having a 26-year-old game-wrecking superstar traded out of your division. Would recommend all." Yeah, I don't mind that part. That's for sure.
37:45
And then here are a few for, uh, young Steve Fezzik from our listeners. Best listeners in the game, by the way. No doubt. This is, uh, this is from earlier in the show, Steve.
37:53
I wanna get to, uh, to the first one here, because this, uh, this gentleman was the first one to ask about if you are just a... I'll, I'll give it in his words.
38:02
He goes, "Was Fezzik ever a sports fan, and does he enjoy watching sports, or is he just a human computer?" I became a computer right after I went to school and started studying all this probability and statistics.
38:14
I'm a, an actuary, which is just a math geek, all left-brained. But back when I was a kid in the '70s, Big Red Machine, you know, Tony Perez, m- greatest clutch hitter of all time. I brought him up earlier, yeah.
38:25
Um- Yeah [laughs]... and, you know, that, that lineup, Cesar Geronimo hit.308, batting eighth. And, and having, and being, like, the best center fielder in the league, uh, that was the greatest lineup of all time.
38:35
You know what's interesting? They almost don't win any World Series. If they don't win that game seven- Yeah...
38:40
if Bill Lee doesn't throw the, um, the moonball to Tony Perez, who homers to cut the lead from 3-0 to 3-2, the Reds lose that game, they trade Perez, and they never win a World Series. Crazy.
38:51
And how m- and how many did they win in that stretch? Just two. They won '75 and '76. '75 and '76.
38:54
And then, um, Eric the Red won one for them fr- in 1989, you know, beat the- Beat the, beat the Red Sox in '75, Carlton Fisk famous homer in game six.
39:02
Beat the Yankees in '76, and then the A's, swept the A's, the big, bad A's, in 1990. Uh, yes. Yeah. Um, you know, but, but the one thing, so growing up in Cincinnati, that was just...
39:11
Uh, I, I, Dayton, uh, I was a enormous fan. And the Bengals, Bob Trumpy, Big Pete Johnson, you know, um- There you go. He's not just a human robot. Come on, now. He has, he has actual human emotions. Iggy Woods.
39:21
[laughs] Okay, don't do the dance, Steve. [laughs] Don't do the dance. Chris Heath, uh, "Based on Fez's passion for '80s, '90s wrestling, I assume he's a fan of some other form of sports entertainment as well."
39:31
That's true. You're a big wrestling guy. And then Bama Sluggers, "Can you ask Fez if a 14, 12-point teaser at minus 110 is a, is a good option or not?" It could be.
39:41
Uh, a 12-point teaser, so you'd, you'd look to a 14 and a half. P- ties probably lose.
39:46
I haven't priced it, so I don't have the answer, but I would think the sweetest spot would, of course, be the 14 or 14 and a half point favorite, which you'd get down to, like, the minus two or minus two and a half.
39:56
Uh, okay, you, you briefly touched on this. I don't wanna gloss over it. Uh, Westgate has a contest in college football that you really love. Oh, I'm, I'm loving this. So college football, we've been waiting for this.
40:07
So their lines come out on Wednesday, and the deadline, crack, the deadline's today. Get our picks in [laughs]. [laughs] So, like, I think it's 4:00 PM. Not sure. Don't quote me on that.
40:16
But, um, it's starting this week, and the market is needed $500, so the price is right, Ma. You know, you don't have to, you don't have to pay very much money. You can have up to 10 entries.
40:26
So I went ahead and, and got eight entries into the Westgate College Football Contest, and so, um, I will be submitting right around 2:00 PM today. Okay. Um, let's talk about your survivor strategy again.
40:38
I think we need to bring this up one more time. Yeah, so my pass posting strategy, but my goodness, um, I'm, I'm shocked that there's controversy about this, because there is controversy.
40:50
Um, there will be some people that will take the Eagles, who are now currently, like, laying minus 7.2, so the market did change a little, which is in my favor, to be fair, because the Eagles were, like, a 6.8 point favorite.
41:01
What I'm, what the heck is Fez talking, saying a team's minus 6.8, meaning there's sevens, but there were some six and a halves. Now there's sevens and some seven and a halves.
41:10
And b- because some people will take the Eagles, should the Eagles lose on Thursday night, when I wake up Friday morning, I don't know. I've incomplete and imperfect information, but you know what, young Gil? Yeah.
41:22
I am a former fellow in the Society of Actuaries. Yes, you are. And you know what actuaries do for a living? I know what they do. They take incomplete and imperfect information, and they make their best- Yeah...
41:31
wild guesses and estimates and projections based upon that. I think about 7%, 8% of the field will take the Eagles. I could well be wrong. Well- It might only be 5%. Let- Might be 12%. What do you think?
41:43
Let's say what y- let, let's talk about what you're referring to, 'cause I brought it up earlier in the week.
41:46
Mike Palm came on another show and, and sort of went, went after you, I'm, I'm not exaggerating about this, and said that you're wrong about so many things and that, uh, you can't be told you're wrong.
41:57
And I made the point earlier in the week, it's like, first of all, I don't know why he didn't just tell you that in person, but secondly, when I brought it up here, you and I talked about this when you first brought it up, and I said to you, I said very calmly, I said, "Well, Steve, it's probably not gonna be as big an advantage 'cause the Eagles are a Thanksgiving play.
42:11
And, um- No doubt... it's a loc- " I said, "It's a locals advantage." 100%. And you, you immediately agreed with both of those points, right?
42:19
But what your poi- your point, the general point of what you're saying, as incremental as the edge might be, is a true point. And anybody who doesn't understand that, I don't know what to tell them.
42:30
You know, you know, there, there's a lot of things here, but I'm, I'm gonna summarize. O- o- one, uh, Mike brings up some excellent, accurate points. The, the, the dentist in South Dakota is gonna enter.
42:39
He's entered Survivor six weeks ago. He, he can't enter more. He's, he's not gonna be able to fly back out here. So the very, very vast majority of people are not gonna play more Survivors if the Eagles do indeed lose.
42:50
Secondly, the Eagles aren't attractive as a Survivor week one, because you wanna save them for Christmas, and you wanna save them for Thanksgiving. So that's gonna make fewer people on the Eagles.
43:00
Um, now, there are some people that are gonna wanna play the Eagles because if they lose, they can re-up. So there is a, um... But this is... Mike's c- totally correct.
43:08
It's a great point with in terms of people, um, that are in Vegas. It only applies to people in Vegas. Um, and he's 100% correct also in terms of in, i- it's very unclear how many people are gonna take the Eagles.
43:22
Now, I go back to, I don't, I don't care about the, the, but, but, but I'm gonna... And, and one thing, I wanna thank Mike, because I am not self-aware nearly enough.
43:30
I had no idea- Well, well, we- I had no idea when I talked briefly with Mike... By the way, and I, I don't, I may have, uh, I never remember saying there'd be 25 million.
43:39
My point was just that there'd be a lot more people that will enter come Friday. Um, and maybe I should have clarified that, but I was totally self-aware that Mike was upset with me, so that's on me.
43:48
That's, I'm, I'm, I'm bad. I need to be better at self-awareness. I should have picked up on that, so that's, that's totally on me.
43:54
Um, but it doesn't take very many people to realize this, because even if only 3% of the people are actually in Vegas and are gonna enter more, guess what?
44:05
Those are gonna be three, the 3% of people that are gonna be like, "I'm only gonna play one Survivor. Now I'm gonna play 10, and I'm gonna sign up my wife, and I'm gonna play 20."
44:12
So in other words, I really feel that we will get 2,000 extra people who will sign up if the Eagles do lose. I could be wrong. Maybe it's only 1,0000. Maybe it's, it, it, maybe it's 3,000. And I don't know.
44:25
He's, Mike's absolutely correct. I don't know how many people are gonna take the Eagles. I think it's gonna be around 8%. If I woke up on Friday morning and Derek Stevens came on and said, "What's the guarantee, Derek?"
44:34
And Derek said, "Well, we've reached the, the, there is gonna be no overlay, but I'm putting 8% more money into the pool," would that be attractive? Heck yes, that would be attractive. Mm-hmm.
44:44
I'm getting out my card and I'm signing up for 10, you know, Circa Survivors. This is, in my opinion, it's the same thing. If the Eagles lose, Derek's giving me 8% more money.
44:54
He might be giving me 10, he might be giving me six, he might be giving me 12. Mike's right. I don't know. But you know what?
44:59
I'm a math geek, and you put 9% extra money or 8% extra money into an overlay on a blackjack tournament, a craps tournament, or a sports betting contest, I'm gonna play a whole lot more. Well said.
45:10
And nobody's been more complimentary of Circa than you over time as well. It should be noted. I, you know, I, I love Circa.
45:15
I, and, and not only do I love Circa, like, like, I love, like, fireworks tonight up at the, um, the Legacy Club- [laughs] Man likes fireworks... the Circa Swim.
45:23
Um, Jeff Benson, the whole staff, the whole sportsbook, everything they do with contests. And, and, and, and in a, in a world in Vegas where the, the suits, uh, don't even connect anymore with the customers,
45:37
Derek Stevens has never been but, anything but fantastic with me, and with all, not just me, e- everyone and all his customers, and he truly roots for everybody to win, and that is just fantastic.
45:48
And he's a gambler himself, so I have nothing but great things to say about Circa and everything they're doing. Good for you, Steve.
45:55
Uh, real quick because we're gonna recap all the bets, Kansas, Wagner also a first-quarter under? Yes, if you can get 14 and a half, because the, the, you know, the one thing, this 14 is, like, so important on a quarter.
46:10
It's hard to score in college football to get over a 14 and a half. So, like, a little thing you can take away, I saw that on the screen. This was at DraftKings.
46:18
If you can i- i- if, if you can get an under 14 and a half when the, when the total on a first quarter's, like, 14 at other places, boy, that's a good bet typically. All right. But not 14, 14 and a half.
46:28
Has to be 14 and a half. Okay. Come back, we'll recap all the bets. More with Steve Fezzik. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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