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Aug 31, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 31, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 31, 2026
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46:15
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Monday morning to you, it is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Ritlin. Heyo.
0:30
Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish. How you doing, man? I'm doing fantastic. Beautiful Monday here in Las Vegas. How was your weekend? It's a beautiful Monday. The triple digits are in the rear view.
0:41
Yeah, dude. As of yesterday. Did I see like, I was like 83 driving in today. Well, what I mean is the high is not gonna get to triple digits anymore- Oh... I believe. Huh. I believe we've been guaranteed that.
0:50
Wait, really? No. I mean, it's not guaranteed, but that's what the forecast says. [laughs] That would be nice. Uh, I am very excited for today's show. Specifically, do you know why? MLB September most wins. Mm-hmm.
1:01
A check of the calendar, and Kelly Ritlin did the checking for me. He r- he just learned that August has 31 days in it. That's right. He learned that last week. Still August today, everybody.
1:10
That means we get to take a crack at MLB September most wins after my worst performance of the year on the Detroit Tigers in August. It was the first team this year we didn't get to 500 with.
1:20
Didn't get within four wins of the, uh, of the promised land. Obviously didn't win it. Um, we'll give it a crack for September. I've got my number three, my number two, and my number one.
1:29
And let me just say this, if my number two hits, and I, and the one that I came closest to playing but didn't, I am going to hate myself, 'cause I feel like I should almost play them too. Yeah, but I was gonna say.
1:40
Maybe I should. You, you've never done that. No. But, like, there's no reason why you couldn't. No reason why I couldn't, except for by the time I do it, then people will knock it down and then I can't get the price.
1:49
Yeah, that's true. Yeah. We're, we're gonna do it in a little bit. You got time. Maybe we'll, we- You got at least one commercial break, right? You think I, you think I can go three and a half minutes back and forth?
1:58
Maybe I can make bet. I think- Then I'll do the bet, I'll come back, then I'll go a second time to collect it. I think we could figure it out. Yeah. Okay. Maybe we'll do that. Um, again- Okay...
2:08
conversations we should probably have off air. Greg Peterson will join us, uh, from the Baseball Betting Show. He'll give his fab five Major League Baseball today. Four weeks left in the MLB season.
2:17
Four weeks, because September, when we do September most wins, it's not a full month of baseball, it is four weeks. This is really an interesting sort of thing just from our fan hood perspective.
2:27
The NFL season starts about as late as it ever has, right? Mm-hmm. Labor Day falling when it does, NFL season starting a week from Wednesday.
2:36
We will only have two and a half weeks of regular season baseball from that point forward, which is really a small amount, 'cause baseball sort of ends a little earlier- Yeah... than normal, and then it's the playoffs.
2:47
I do enjoy that crossover. Uh, I do. Well, October will be great, but I'm just saying it's, it's less baseball overlap than- Mm-hmm... than in most years. So, which is not a bad thing.
2:57
Just, just clears the way for football. Mm-hmm. So we'll talk to, uh, Greg about his plays today. Four weeks left in the season, all the races, um, coming down the stretch. Wes Reynolds, talking golf.
3:07
I know you have a lot to say about the, uh, the way that Scottie Scheffler wrapped things up yesterday. NFL week one, we'll take a look at that.
3:13
And Adam Burke a little later on talking, uh, all things baseball, everything he's betting on on the heels of the NFL betting guide 2.0. We'll ask him about that as well. Coming up. First thing, though,
3:24
you know, there's only one way to start here. Montreal Max, uh, tweeted yesterday, and he was like, "Is this your March Madness?" He was like, "Is the US Open tennis your March Madness?"
3:33
I was kind of like, yeah, it kind of is. Mm-hmm. The first couple days of the US Open, um, Indian Wells is kind of my ACC tournament, the, you know, the tournament that is closest to my heart.
3:42
But this, it, it is March Madness. And last night, again, the biggest story sort of globally in sport, as they say across the pond, Novak Djokovic loses to Mariano Navone in five sets in the first round of a major,
3:57
breaking his 78 Grand Slam streak of winning first round matches, dating all the way back to 2006. That's crazy. In other words, a different lifetime, different generation- Mm... since we've seen that happen.
4:11
I think just by point of comparison, Roger Federer had 65 in a row. Novak, 78. Meaning he missed a couple along the way, most famously the one in Australia during COVID.
4:21
But 78 in a row, he loses, and it really is a function of his body just has broken down entirely. We saw him in Cincinnati against, um, Thiago Agustín Tirante. He lost to Tirante.
4:35
He was vomiting on, right off court while the match was going on there. That we could, we could have passed off to, oh, maybe it's the heat. We have no such excuse yesterday.
4:46
I didn't realize that happened in Cincinnati too. Oh, yeah. Yeah. He vomited not once, but twice I think last night. We showed one. Yeah, right. If you're squeamish at home, don't look kind of thing.
4:55
Um, and he has been saying, you know, he has some sort of chronic thing happening. And, um, I don't know, it just had Ali versus Trevor Berbick vibes last night. Mm-hmm.
5:05
It had Sugar Ray Leonard versus Terry Norris vibes to use sort of boxing references b- from back in the day when the greatness was extinguished.
5:13
But I even asked on the, on the podcast, on the US Open preview pod that I did with Drew Dinsick and Zach Cohen, our own Zach Cohen, I asked, I, I said, "Is, is this Novak's last Slam?"
5:25
And 'cause this, it's not the most surprising thing in the world, 'cause we kind of like, this is...
5:29
Look, he, he had that unbelievable win against Sinner in the semis in Australia, where Sinner was two of 18 on break points.
5:36
Somehow he got to the finals, lost in the finals, got knocked out in the third round of the French against João Fonseca, got to the semis at Wimbledon, now a first round, first round exit.
5:46
And it's just, it was tough to watch last night. Yeah. Novak was crying on the court in the fifth set, 'cause I think Zach, uh, via text last night said it best.
5:57
You got the feeling that was the first moment where Novak Djokovic finally entertained retirement. Mm-hmm. Like, it finally hit him. In that moment, and all, and, and all that came rushing in at that moment.
6:13
I- 'Cause physically just am unable to go. Yeah. I f- I felt the same way. Is it the... I mean, is it the beginning of the end, or is it the possible end end? I think it's the end of the end.
6:23
I know a lot of people now who are, like, not tennis hardos are like, "Oh, what do you think? Is he?" Yeah. "Where do you think his best shot..." His best shot was here. Right. Exactly.
6:30
Or at Wimbledon two, two Slams ago. Like, it- we've do- he hasn't won a Slam since 2023. Also, and these guys, for the most part, most of these great athletes do not like to go out- No...
6:42
by playing bad at their sport for a period of time before they finally retire. Right. I mean, it, it happens at every s- I mean, even Michael Jordan, who- Yes... went out on top, then came back. Mm-hmm. Right?
6:55
Um, I just mentioned a couple boxers. Yep. But, but boxing is littered with those kinds of guys, right? And tennis is the same way, right? Like, no one wants to go out o- o- on, on anything but their own terms.
7:05
But father, father... What's the expression? Father Time is undefeated. Undefeated, yeah. I just hope he's okay. I hope whatever's chronically- Well, yeah... bothering him is not anything more serious.
7:13
It, it is amazing 'cause even during the match last night, I mean, he's just [laughs] he's capitulating the whole time. He's, like, barely trying. He's still winning points- I know... against professional tennis players.
7:23
So I, I... The, from a betting perspective, I, I, I watched most of it. Uh, I mean, from the beginning watching him was like, okay.
7:30
By the time we got to the second set, it's l- very obvious this is not, you know, something's up. They're not the same Novak Djokovic. [laughs] I still didn't have the stones to go run a live bet against him. No.
7:38
We saw, we saw it at the end of the first set. Yeah. And then some people did get in on it, like Felika got in on it. Good on him. But- But even, but even that was kind of like, did you...
7:47
I mean, Novak still went up two sets to one- Right, right. Yeah... and then up a break in the fourth. So it's not like that was, that wasn't...
7:54
It didn't turn out to be the correct handicap for at least a couple more sets. 'Cause it look, at two sets up, the, up two sets to one and up a break in the fourth, you're like, "Oh, he's doing it again." Mm-hmm.
8:04
But it was not to be, and so, uh, tough to watch just from a... Forget the betting standpoint. For, for the betting standpoint, helps us greatly for those of us who had the, uh... By the way, I lost one future yesterday.
8:15
Barbora Krejcikova bounced out of the first round on the ladies' side. I saw that. That was the longest shot of the, uh, of the quarters. That goes out.
8:23
But it helps us greatly from a betting standpoint, not to be callous about it, but that's what we're here for.
8:28
For those who, who, uh, tailed on the Daniil Medvedev seven to one to win the Novak Djokovic quarter, um, we picked the right quarter, right? That was the whole point, was that Novak seemed vulnerable anyway.
8:41
Didn't think he'd go out in the first round, but seemed vulnerable anyway. So Medvedev, our seven to one, very much alive.
8:47
And by p- and, and you know, a lot of people, I know Zach and, uh, Chris have Nakashima at seven to one as well. Some people might have Big Foe.
8:54
By data, by hardcore data, year-long data, Daniil Medvedev's the guy to beat. By six-month data, Nakashima's the guy to beat. So pick your poison there. Um, Nakashima having a really good summer.
9:07
So Krejcikova's gone, 14 to one. She's out in a blink. But everybody else here just one day in, obviously, uh, still going. Medvedev wins his, uh, his first round match in straights against Hugo Gaston.
9:21
As far as the individual matches yesterday, oh, boy. Uh, I had six plays. Four completed. Two are carrieso- carry over to today. I went one in three. Would you like to hear about two of the losses? Sure.
9:36
One of them we were two points away from winning, Renata Sarasua. She lost. And if that wasn't enough for you as enough grotesqueness in the morning, is that, that's a word.
9:46
Then I had a young lady by the name of Hannah VandeWinkle. She was taking on Carolina, uh, Karolína Plíšková. She was up six two, five two with a match point. Guess what happened? Oh, God. Yeah. Oh, God. Yeah. Yep.
10:01
Today- I, I got some insight as the, uh, as the- I'm so, I'm so numb to this at this point that it's just like, but that one was brutal. Yeah, that was, uh- Six two, five two with a match point lose.
10:10
I didn't realize it was like that when you- Oh, no. It's terrible... when Drew texted. Yeah. When Drew texted the wrong group. By the way, I s- I send this, I, I meant to send it to Drew and Zach.
10:17
By accident I sent it to a Drew Kelly one. Kelly comes back with, "Hey, uh, that's, that's too bad. But watch Drew talk about s'mores," and he sends me a video of them. I didn't know what was going on.
10:28
And I'm like, uh, I'm- Sorry, I didn't know you had L's... I'm like, uh, "Too soon, Kelly. Too soon." I don't know what you guys are talking about. I'm sorry. [laughs] Today, four plays.
10:36
Uh, obviously two carryovers from yesterday. Two carryover from yesterday. Today four plays. They're all dogs. Uh, here are the, uh, we, uh, the, again, the outrights that are, you know, still going.
10:45
Obviously the tournament's barely started. Iga is in action today. Got her to win the women's side seven to one. Carlitos to win the men's side plus 175. Anisimova to win quarter number three on the ladies' side.
10:56
Daniil Medvedev to win quarter number three on the men's side at seven to one. Four to one on Anisimova. Krejcikova is already a loser. Four plays today in tennis. Two on the men's side, two on the ladies' side.
11:05
They are all underdogs. Uh, James Duckworth, the Australian, is, uh, the first play on the men's side. Duckworth is a, let me get the exact number here for you. Plus 140. Thank you.
11:17
He's a plus 140 dog, uh, against, um, Matteo Arnaldi. Also on the men's side, Harry Wendtken, plus 247 versus Luciano Darderi. That's a big, big dog.
11:29
And on the ladies' side, Daria Snigur, plus 240 versus Diana Schneider, and Elisabetta Cocciaretto, just like saying that, plus 160 versus Katarina Siniakova. So, uh, two on the men's side, two on the ladies' side.
11:43
All big underdogs today as the numbers come back to the dogs' side. That was an interesting week of favorites coming in. Yeah, a lot of favorites from you. Yeah. Very odd. Very odd. Golf over the weekend as well.
11:58
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13:21
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. A couple things, uh, Lionel Messi.
13:39
Lionel Messi, by the way, named after Lionel Richie of the Commodores. Do you know that? [laughs] No, I had no idea. It's true. Yeah, they actually met finally. Really? Yeah.
13:46
Lionel Messi has just announced his retirement from, uh, the Argentinian national team. Okay. And he just... Did, did, did he score, like, four goals in a game, like, on Friday or Saturday or something? He did.
13:57
I missed it. He, [laughs] he did. It was very- Handicapping takes But it might have been longer ago than that, but. Um, there's that.
14:03
And by the way, and to the, uh, to the person who, uh, asked the question, and I wanna give him credit for this question once again.
14:09
This is from the person who asked the question, it was, uh, GV, New Jersey/New York, asked, "Hey, in the monthly MLB wins thing, has everybody before this season always made the playoffs?"
14:20
And I pointed out that the first three months of this year, we could have three teams that will miss the playoffs. Reds, Mariners, Marlins. Mariners will have something to say about this here down the stretch.
14:31
It's the second straight year where our March, April, May, and June teams didn't make the playoffs, 'cause last year- Oh, wow. Yeah. Last year, the first three months of 2025, it was the Mets, Cardinals, and Astros.
14:42
None of them made the playoffs, and then the next three teams did, which appears that could be the case this year as well after the Red Sox and Phillies have won the last two months.
14:52
So anyway, there's the, uh, there's the answer to that question. Saturday. Yes, sir. I f- how could you, how could you miss the Inter Miami CF Montreal game? How could you miss that on...
15:03
And th- you had better things to do on a Saturday? [laughs] How dare you? S- sorry. Inter Miami wins 7 to 1, four of those by Lionel Messi. Named after the great Lionel Richie of the Commodores.
15:15
You know who knows something about Lionel Richie of the Commodores? This guy. Wes Reynolds, who was not named after Wes Unseld of the Washington Bullets.
15:21
Uh, he is part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. You can follow him on Twitter @wesreynolds1. That's the number 1. Wes joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Good morning, sir.
15:31
Four goals in one game, Gil. Easy like Sunday morning, right? That's right, except it was a Saturday, Wes? Yeah, it was. It was a Saturday. Yeah. So it, it, it, it was close. Yeah. It was an Earth, Wind & Fire song.
15:41
[laughs] We could make a Saturday claim, but then I don't think the Commodores have anything with Saturday in the title. Wes, did you have Scottie Scheffler this weekend? I did not.
15:48
I did bet the without, so I got that half right, but I didn't get the guy in second, right? [laughs] I know, unfortunately, like the, uh, like the previous couple weeks. But, uh, yeah.
15:57
Uh, Scottie, I think, uh, you know, he probably... And we're gonna do, by the way, Kelly, Matt, and I, an, an award show kind of on, like, give our Longies or whatever we're gonna call them, the Long Shots Awards.
16:08
And, uh, I'm sure Scottie Scheffler is gonna be in very high consideration for player of the year, uh, with his performance late in the playoffs. He gotta win it at this point, right?
16:18
There's n- there's no controversy here, is there? I wouldn't think so. Yeah. I, I know majors get valued, and, and, and all, and all the players kind of have that mentality, right? You know, how do you do in the majors?
16:30
How do you do in the big four events? And, and he didn't win one this year, but he was in contention in, in I think about three out of the four of them. And, you know, it's not like he won, you know, little events.
16:42
Maybe the American Express, even though that was a very good field. But you win two playoff events, and you have that many top fives and you have that many top 10s. I think consistency throughout the season also matters.
16:52
'Cause you had a lot of guys earlier in the year that won big tournaments, and they kind of faded away- Yeah... at the end of the season.
16:59
Maybe ran out of gas a little bit, and he kept playing consistently throughout the calendar year. Who's going to win the, uh, the Arnold Palmer Award for the, uh, rookie of the year? I think it's down to two.
17:12
Because rookie of the year is kind of funny. Uh, you know, a, a weird thing with some guys start late. Like, some guys, if they start right out of college, where their college season goes into, like, April and May.
17:23
Like Jackson Koeven, uh, the kid out of Auburn, uh, that was, uh, on the national championship team. He won a tournament in late July, but he hadn't been on the tour but for, like, several weeks.
17:34
So I think if you're looking full season, it might be Chris Ryttan, uh, the Norwegian who won the Truist, or Alex Fitzpatrick, the younger brother of Matthew Fitzpatrick. Uh, those seem like kind of the top two to me.
17:46
But these guys all start at different points now. So, like, you could be a DP World Tour player and be a, an old grizzled veteran, and if you get in the top 10 on their Race to Dubai, you get a PGA Tour card.
17:59
So you can be, like, a rookie now at, like, 35 or 40 years old, even though these guys are pretty young, in their early 20s. But I think it's gonna come down to the two Europeans, Ryttan or Fitzpatrick.
18:09
Back to Scott- Yeah. Back... Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead. No, is it... Th- this is what. Remember we talked about it? I know, I know you bet Pence, and that was at, like- I did bet Pence... I bet Pence is gonna be great.
18:16
Yeah. But we talked about it then, and we're like, th- this whole conversation right there is why, like, this award has not picked up more steam as far as a, uh, a, a conversation just over the years.
18:27
'Cause you got these, he's got these guys coming in and out. You don't really know who's a rookie, when they're a rookie. Like, the fact that Koeven's not even gonna be in the conversation, Wes, seems a little silly.
18:35
But yeah, it's, it's probably down to those two. Let's go back to Scottie Scheffler for a second. This is from Kyle Porter, so I don't know if you caught this.
18:40
Scottie Scheffler yesterday set, set the all-time record, past Tiger Woods, for the most money earned in the history- Mm-hmm... of the PGA Tour. And Kyle Porter breaks it down. By the way, it's 130-plus million now.
18:52
Tiger was at 120, a mere 120 plus. Thanks, Liv. Um, yeah, exactly. Mm-hmm. Li- Liv helps, right? Uh, Scottie Scheffler, though, first 70 PGA Tour events, per Kyle Porter, zero wins, 11 top fives.
19:04
He made $9 million officially his first 70 PGA Tour events, 70 events, 9 million. His next 100, 22 wins. He won 22 out of the next 100. I don't know if you know that, Kelly, but that's more than, uh, 20%. That's 22%.
19:20
That's pretty good. Uh, 58 top fives, good God, and 121 million, officially. And I think someone else broke it down yesterday that of his 130 million, 78 million of it's the last two years.
19:37
Yeah, no, that- Last, no, last 28 months, exactly. 28 months, pardon me. No, it makes sense 'cause it's even... I, I know we've got Justin Ray, too. Since the beginning of the 2022 season,
19:47
P- wins on the PGA Tour, 22 for Scottie Scheffler. So we said 22 since the beginning of the 2022 season. Man, that's a lot of 22s. Uh, Scottie Scheffler with 22, Rory with 11.
19:57
Godderup, Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark with six wins since the beginning of 2022. So Wes, I've, um, you know, we get into this little sports talk, radio talk every once in a while, especially this time of year.
20:07
Gi- give me the, give me Scottie Scheffler in the all-time golf pantheon pecking order at this point. He probably, I would say, maybe back end of the top 10, uh, you know, or certainly approaching that.
20:22
It's so early in his career. Like, you think he's going to be there, barring that he stays injury-free, of course.
20:28
But, you know, obviously, the top is Tiger and Jack and Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Tom Watson. Uh, uh, I, I, r- Rory, I think, is actually in the, in the all-time top 10.
20:42
So, and then you go back to the older guys like Gene Sarazen and, and, and Walter Hagen. But I think Scottie is on his way to getting in that top 10.
20:53
You know, once he finishes off that Career Grand Slam, 'cause that's kind of what, what Rory did, like, last year, right, at the Masters where it's kind of like, you know what? He's probably a top 10 player of all time.
21:03
He's certainly the greatest, arguably the greatest European player ever now, uh, wi- with what he has done. So I think that's where you're gonna see Scottie.
21:11
But, uh, where you're throwing those money or that, that, those dollar figures around, man, th- those are like chump change. I mean, these guys were, like, persecuted.
21:19
They had to create a whole new tour 'cause they weren't making enough money- [laughs]... uh, uh, funded by a, a certain government over there in the Middle East.
21:26
So, uh, but, uh, but I think that tour, uh, might be, uh, ending very soon. Um, I feel like also when I ask that question, just as it's coming out of my mouth, it's an unfair question because I think- It's very unfair...
21:37
you know, well, specifically with golf, I think it is. Yeah. Because in golf, I think you tend to romanticize the ancient players more than in any other sport. Mm-hmm.
21:47
Like tennis, people don't go around being like, "Oh, that Margaret Court, that Ken Rosewall." It's like- "Like, you can't beat those guys." But in golf, if you say Ben Hogan- Yeah...
21:55
or Gene Sarazen, uh, who my friend, or Bobby Jones or somebody, you know, someone like that, like, you, you, you're reticent to ever say that someone was as good as those guys, right?
22:07
Not to mention Jack and Tiger- Yeah... who we saw. So I, for me- Yeah... for me, this is an impossible conversation- Yeah... because of two things, and one of them's, one of them fair, one of them unfair.
22:17
Equipment and how it has changed and evolved over time, we, we don't know what- That's right... Jack Nicklaus would, could be like if he was using- Right... today's equipment, right? Oh, true.
22:24
Now, the other one- Wise in tennis, too...
22:26
the other one where I'm not going to give any excuse to the older players, the fact that, like, Tiger Woods had to come around and revolutionize how these guys get in shape and exercise.
22:36
Like, I'm not gonna hold it against Scottie Scheffler that nobody cared about exercising on the PGA Tour in, in the 1980s. Like, th- they all could've done that. Everybody does it on the tour now. They go crazy. Yeah.
22:47
Who was, who was Tiger's, uh, was it Mark McNamara? What was the guy's name? Who was his buddy? Uh, who was it? Who won a couple of Ma- Mark O'Meara... Mark O'Meara. Yeah. Not Mark McNamara.
22:54
Mark O'Meara won two majors, right? Mark O'Meara tells the story about Tiger where, like, they, they went, and they played a tour- they played a, a round of golf together, and Tiger shot a 59. Mm-hmm. Right? On a...
23:05
And the next day they went out, and Tiger, first hole, [laughs] he had a, it was a par three on the first hole, wherever they went to play, and he had a hole in one.
23:14
And Mark O'Meara walked off the course, got in his car, and drove home. He's like, "It's, I gotta- [laughs]... I'm not doing this anymore." [laughs] This is in... Uh, can you imagine, 59 in the first hole the next day?
23:25
Yeah. You're like, "This is it," as it... But you're right. It was just something so... And Scottie wasn't that. Now, to the point of did Tiger...
23:33
I lo- it's always interesting when people say, "Oh, Tiger didn't have as broad of a field of players to play against." Yeah, because he was so dominant. How do you know? Yeah.
23:41
Yeah, 'cause he wa- I don't think that's fair... he, he, 'cause he was beating up on a bunch of out of shape dudes. But then Scottie had Liv, right? Yeah. So there's that. Anyway, Wes, sorry.
23:50
But I miss the charm of the old days, though. Me too. Uh, you know, when you... Those, those famous picture where Arnold Palmer's just got a cigarette in his mouth, and he's taking an approach to the 18th.
23:59
It's like, I miss that. I miss guys, you know, getting- John Daly... hung over and pitching no-hitters in baseball, you know? Oh. Yeah, amen. So there's a certain charm of that before sports science evolved.
24:09
I do agree with that. Uh, Wes has some college football thoughts, maybe some plays. That's next. It's The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:16
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:32
I just have to add to the water rankings that I gave my rankings, right, Evian one, uh, I don't even know the name, Aquapona two. I got, I don't know it either.
24:41
Fiji three, and Darnell Glenn, who has been our, uh, what, a Numbers Game employee of the month a record 47 times, you know what he says? He thinks Arrowhead is the best water.
24:54
I think that is grounds for just dismissal I think he was joking, but I'm not sure He was, he, he was not joking I, I, I'm pr- I'm pretty sure- Was he joking?...
25:01
like 10 years ago I pulled up a, a bl- like some breakdown study on bottled water, and Arrowhead was like one of the bottom ones as far as like cleanliness and stuff Ch- Chris Foster said it best. Chris Foster said...
25:12
[laughs] Deep Thoughts with Chris Foster said- He did. He did... Arrowhead is like someone else drank the water first and then you drink it. It's like a full bottle of backwash Oh my God.
25:23
[laughs] Adam Burke joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. He is the managing editor of vsin.com. He is part of the glue, maybe the whole glue.
25:31
Not the whole glue, but he's most of the glue that holds this whole operation together. He joins us now. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter, of course, @skatingtripods. Good morning, Adam. Hey, how's it going, boys?
25:41
Doing very well. Would you Guardians just go away, please? Just go away. I'm sc- just so annoying. They lose a bunch. They're trying And they did this last year, too.
25:49
They lost a bunch in a row, and you're like, "Oh, they're gonna go away." No, then they come roaring back. Um, okay, you have a trio of baseball plays for us today, none that do involve the Guardians. What do you have?
26:00
Yeah, Guardians don't play today, so that's good. I'll actually be able to enjoy my evening. [laughs] So that'll be nice. Um, so I'm gonna take a big shot here with the Giants and the Braves.
26:08
I'm gonna take a shot on the Giants in this one at a big underdog price. Uh, Anthony Molina gets the start here. He was a guy who was a farmhand for the Braves, came over to the Giants in the Tyler O'Malley trade.
26:18
Uh, so we'll see how he does in this one. I'm mostly looking just to fade Bryce Elder. Um, you know, his FIP in the second half, very, very high, 484. I just... I'm not a big Bryce Elder guy.
26:29
And, and look, this is a really, really strange situation for both of these teams. This is a makeup game from June 18th. So both of them are losing an off day.
26:37
But the Giants played a double header against the Diamondbacks on Saturday, so they had Sunday off to travel, whereas the Braves had to play yesterday, finish off their sweep in extra innings against the Rockies.
26:48
So if I'm the Braves, I'm leading my division, I, I'm kinda pissed off to be losing an off day here.
26:53
Gotta travel to DC and take on the Nationals coming up here, uh, during the week, and then play a wraparound four-gamer against the Phillies. Pretty big series next weekend for them.
27:02
Just swept the Gi- the Dodgers at home. Like, I don't know, maybe this is just a really, really flat spot here for Atlanta. Whereas the Giants, I mean, they're not a good team. Obviously, their record shows that.
27:12
But maybe the competitive juices get flowing when you play some of the better teams that are in the league, you know, especially a division leader like the Braves. So I think the Giants are worth it here today.
27:21
I, I'm not gonna say this is a punt for the Braves, but I don't think they're gonna be super invested in this one. Uh, and Elder's a guy that I wanna fade anyway. I don't wanna lay a big price with him.
27:29
So Giants in that plus 175 range, I think is, is worth a shot here.
27:34
And I did think about plus one and a half in the minus 130 range, uh, as an alternate way of playing this one, but figured I'll just go ahead and hope that the Giants show up today. Come on, Giants, get them a big score.
27:44
I love that whole handicap. It was sort of like a sheepish thing where I was like, "I don't know. Maybe the Bra- [laughs] maybe the Braves will have a letdown spot. Maybe the Giants will show up for it."
27:51
That's how you gotta do it with these Giants. I'm with you. Plus 174 on the San Francisco Giants at Truist Park in Atlanta tonight. Uh, you have a couple more for us. Yeah, a- AL Central matchup here, Twins and Tigers.
28:04
This is a price play for me, taking the Tigers at a plus money price. Uh, Jackson Jobe on the mound, Taj Bradley going for the Twins.
28:12
I just don't really see a scenario where this game is that much more than a coin flippy type of line here. Uh, and, and in some respects, I kind of even like the Tigers a little bit because Jobe's had one bad start.
28:22
Gave up six runs to the White Sox. Other than that, he's been good, induced a ton of weak contact, been very, very effective. Taj Bradley is really good, too, but, you know, second half here, 484 ERA.
28:34
You know, he's still missing a lot of bats, but he's walking more guys, giving up some more home runs.
28:39
A guy that may be getting a little bit tired, maybe kind of fatiguing a little bit here, uh, this late into the season with, you know, kind of an elevated workload.
28:47
A guy who was hurt, you know, fairly often down there with the Rays and everything. Uh, Jackson Jobe is pretty strong. You know, coming back from injury, made some rehab starts. He's made four starts at the MLB level.
28:57
Probably just a little bit more in the gas tank for him at this point in time. And Tiger's bullpen better by ERA, better by expected ERA in the month of August.
29:06
So just a price play here, a price grab for me on the Tigers. Uh, you know, getting that plus 105, plus 110 type of price range on them against the Twins here today.
29:15
If the Tigers are gonna make this interesting, it's gotta start now. There's no time to waste. I mean, this is third-best run differential in the American League. Nowhere close to a playoff position right now.
29:25
Five and a half back out of the wi- the third wild card position. Uh, how about this? This is a, uh, a battle of two division leaders.
29:34
The s- the, uh, the White Sox with a three and a half game lead over your Guardians in the AL Central. The Houston Astros now with a two-game lead over the Rangers and a five-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West.
29:46
The Astros trying to get above 500 in the end. They're 69 and 68 right now, uh, trying to avoid being a division winner with a losing record. So far so good, but it's dicey. What do you got?
29:58
Yeah, it is dicey, although I do think that they put one in the win column here tonight.
30:02
Easy to say this is my favorite play of the night because it is the only minus money play in the minus 125, minus 130 range here for this one. Uh, but Peter Lambert has reverse platoon splits.
30:12
Righties have hit him well, lefties have not. Lefties only batting 179 this season against Lambert, 262 slugging percentage. And the guys who are really dangerous in this White Sox lineup are left-handed bats.
30:25
So I think that Lambert's in a decent spot here tonight to neutralize what is a pretty good lineup, especially because he's held lefties in check so much from a power standpoint.
30:34
Whereas for Anthony Kay, strikeout percentage under 15% against right-handed batters, 9% walk rate. 16 of the 18 home runs that he's allowed, they've got a 478 slugging percentage against him, 374 on base percentage.
30:49
This is a bad, bad matchup for him. You know, the Astros are very right-handed heavy lineup. Probably have seven righties at least in the lineup here for tonight against Kay. Uh, just not a good spot for him.
31:00
Little bit worried about the Astros' bullpen. Pretty heavy workload over the last few days. Josh Hader's pitched three of four and four of six. He may not be available tonight.
31:08
Uh, but the Astros' bullpen's been pretty solid Throughout the course of the season here.
31:12
So I'll trust that they'll figure this thing out late if they need to, but based on the s- on the platoon splits here, really, really big starting pitching advantage for Houston.
31:21
Uh, so I laid this number down there at, uh, what is it? Dyken Park, whatever we, we call it now. 'Cause I loved when it was the Juice Box, when it was Minute Maid Park. Yeah.
31:29
Uh, but I like Houston at home here in this one. I love the Juice Box. Um, last thing on baseball, four weeks left in the regular season. Four weeks from now,
31:38
uh, who is the team that right now is on the outside looking in that will make the playoffs? Who's the team on the inside looking out perhaps that won't?
31:46
Either AL or NL, or will it just be status quo and nothing will really change? Always, always putting me on the spot with these things. I'm so sorry. Um, no, it's fine. It, it... Look, I...
32:02
The obvious answer here is that Cleveland falls out, right? [laughs] I mean, you know, I can totally see Baltimore sneaking in.
32:07
Uh, Toronto is just all of a sudden kinda hanging around a little bit, just a game out in the, in the AL wild card.
32:14
Um, you know, Scherzer turning back the clock, like, a decade, throwing the 10 strikeout game over the weekend. Um, I don't know. The Blue Jays strike me as a team that- They're getting in...
32:22
they- they're just gonna find a way to get in, I think. Yeah. I think they're getting in. Blue Jays' schedule is easy. I think there's some karma, right? Losing game seven last year.
32:31
They, they deserve to be in, for God sakes. Let's go. Yeah. I think so. Yeah. And, and Cleveland, I mean, a- again, I just... They got, they're gonna be carried right now by Parker Messick.
32:41
And, and at some point- Yeah... this kid's gonna hit a wall. He just has to. Okay. College football, how'd you do week zero? Did you make any bets? Uh, yeah.
32:49
Week zero, I mean, I had, uh, New Mexico State against Florida State, and, uh, there were early returns on Florida State, not particularly strong.
32:57
Uh, a lot of people out there seem very upset with the performance that the Seminoles had, so that was nice. I had the under in the Jacksonville State and North Dakota State game.
33:05
Did not expect that final to be as lopsided as it was. Uh, really concerning performance from Jacksonville State offensively.
33:12
I took San, uh, Sacramento State against Eastern Michigan just thinking, you know, Eastern Michigan's not a team that I like very much this season. That one didn't work out.
33:20
Sacramento State's talent level, particularly in the trenches, is just not FBS caliber. Um, and Eastern Michigan's a team that I don't think is very good. So that was a really bad sign for Sacramento State going forward.
33:31
Like many, I laid the TCU price. Uh, Jaden Craig looked really bad. Oh, he looked so bad. You know, he did not look good at all. Yeah, I agree. Um, and I mean, look, credit to North Carolina.
33:39
I mean, the, they were really good defensively last year, and nobody talked about it because the offense was so bad.
33:45
They come out and put forth a really good defensive effort without their DC, Steve Belichick, in that one. So found out a lot, had kind of a break even-ish type of week.
33:54
Um, but you know, this is a big week here, where you got a very high variance environment with 43 FBS versus FBS games. A good opportunity for us to, you know, see what most of these teams are about here this week.
34:06
I mean, I'm with you though, but besides North Carolina getting the W, which I acknowledge they got it, good for them, I don't know if we can say the defense is good, 'cause Craig missed about three passes- Yeah...
34:16
that were gonna be huge gainers. And it was just like, "Where are you?"
34:19
And part of it was maybe the ball was wet, but it did, it, it certainly affected him more than, uh, more than the other side of the field was affected.
34:27
Uh, week one, what have, what have you made so far bet-wise, or what are you looking to make? College football. I haven't bet anything yet. I mean, these lines have been up for a very, very long time.
34:36
So, you know, now I'm kinda curious to see where the market goes as betting limits are, you know, uh, are much bigger at all the shops that are out there. You've got people taking much stronger positions now.
34:47
Just kinda waiting to see how things sort of play out a little bit here, uh, you know, before I dive in. I mean, I have my numbers.
34:52
Most of them are very close to the market, which is, you know, kinda what you want early on in the season here. Uh, but I, I do like Stanford right now, getting 24 and a half against Miami.
35:00
I was impressed with Davis Warren. I think Miami might have a little bit of growing pains with all the roster turnover. Ooh, I like that answer. I like it, too. Okay. Adam, appreciate it. Football's here.
35:11
NFL a week, well, nine days away. Can't wait. Thank you so much, Adam. Take care, guys. Maybe some tennis head-to-heads. Well, at least we found one head-to-head. We got one! Next on The Numbers Game.
35:21
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36:06
Get started for just $9.99, or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We get tweets made of the book. This is from, uh, PK Mountain Steeler Den.
36:21
"I like to scroll watching sports. If I'm watching something, even Red Zone or whatever, I'm focused on watching that, not my phone, and therefore like to scroll to see updates.
36:29
Don't know if I'm right, but were there no news/sports scrolls at all until 9/11?" Wow, that was all over- No... that, that was all over the place. No, it came earlier than that, right? But it's later than you think.
36:41
But beginning part of that ding, ding, ding, that's what I'm talking about. The, if you can give me the scores on the bottom so I don't have to go to my phone, I liked that.
36:48
Do you remember a time, you might be too young for this, there was a time for a large part of our lives of people my age- Yeah... where they didn't show the, they don't have a score bot on the screen during games.
36:59
You're like, "What was the score again?" No, that is, that's, yes, that's another one that you can't believe- Yeah... how much later that started. Oh my God. That was, like, not till the '90s. Mm-hmm.
37:08
Listener Lance, oh, listener Lance is, is, is rolling right now. He's got Pete Crow-Armstrong, 200 to one most home runs. PCA now two homers behind Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has 40.
37:22
Pete Crow-Armstrong after a five home run outburst this weekend has 38. PCA, he also has MVP, 40 to 1. You're winning that one, Lance. You're winning that.
37:33
Both preseason bets, I'd like to say I'm a highly skilled futures bettor, but I am just a Cubs fan. PCA two back of the home run lead. Let's go. Real N- ESPN with the bottom line since 1995.
37:44
Real Nicks, "Is it possible to already be done with college football? [laughs] Now I know why it's called week zero. That was a prediction for the number of wins I would have Saturday. Oh, well.
37:52
I'm off to donate blood to make back some of my losses." And Brendan talking about the tennis coverage on ESPN, he says, "NASCAR does that, too. Goes away from the action for some simulation or something lame."
38:02
Wes Reynolds kind enough to join us for a second segment. Uh, Wes, uh, before we get to your college football, you said you wanted to say something about Novak last night? Were you watching?
38:10
Y- yeah, I was watching the end. And, and, and, you know, he was just... You know, you could tell, like, he was getting kind of a tear in his eye because- Oh, yeah... he, it's like he knew it was over last night.
38:20
And, and, you know, just to see him. And, and obviously for the kid from, from Argent- Argentina. I for- I forget his name, uh, but. Navone. Yeah. Yeah, Navone. Like, that's the biggest win of his career.
38:31
I know he won, like, some 250 event on clay earlier this season, but that's the biggest win of his life, and it's like nobody outside of his box is rooting for him.
38:39
But this is, "I get to win on court at Ashe Stadium against the greatest of all time." And, you know. So I felt sorry for him, but then for Djokovic.
38:47
And I think he, the reality just set in and I thought, you know, Novak was still classy to sign for the kids that waited- Yes... and stayed late for the match- He was... at Ashe Stadium.
38:56
And, uh, you know, I hope it's not the end, but I hope it is the end because I think he should go out, like, on his terms, you know? He has that, he has that right to do that, and he has earned that right.
39:07
But it wa- You know, that, uh, I don't know if it was an injury or maybe it's just Father Time being undefeated, but that was sad.
39:14
And then to follow it up with Venus Williams who had, like, several set points and, and I'm like, "I thought she retired like 10 years ago." So I, I, I don't know.
39:25
Uh, that wa- that wa- that was a little bit of a sloppy, uh, late-night match. I don't know what the Venus thing is all about.
39:30
I know she said it's for health insurance, and she acted like she wasn't joking, but I, I don't know what that's about. Again, she turned pro in 1994.
39:38
Um, and then the Djokovic thing, just to follow up on what I said earlier. It did feel like a boxer in that fight beyond his prime, right? Who knew. You know, it's like the look in their eyes is Ali against Berbick.
39:49
It's Sugar Ray Leonard against Terry Norris. Uh, that's what it felt like last night.
39:53
And, uh, I hope it's, you know, m- first and foremost, I hope this chronic illness that he is talking about, I hope he's okay because there's certainly something going on with him beyond heat.
40:04
This was, you could have made that excuse in Cincinnati, but this was not temperature related last night, uh, at Ashe. So I just hope he's okay. And yeah, I mean, he's, he hasn't won a, he hasn't won a slam since 2023.
40:16
And for those of us who have watched tennis closely, it, it's not gonna happen anymore. This was, this was the shot. And so it's, it's over. And, um, Zach said it best. Zach Cohen said it best.
40:26
When he was crying it was kind of, and I think Zach is right, that was the moment where it felt like it finally hit Novak for the first time that it was over. Now, maybe he was just- The reality hit him, absolutely.
40:40
Yeah. Maybe he was in pain physically, too. I'm not denying that. But it felt like that was the moment.
40:44
And it's tough to watch, uh, whether you're a fan of his or not, anyone from greatness, uh, fall from grace like that in such a public way. Um, 24 slams. Greatest of all time, though, by that measure. Um,
40:57
part of the big three with Federer and Nadal. We will always have that golden age. College football, Wes. How'd you do this past weekend? You make any bets? I did okay, actually, uh, for week zero.
41:07
Usually it's, you're kinda trying to survive because we're all jonesing, right? Yes. We're all, you know, to get back into it.
41:13
And, you know, ended up surviving and, uh, you know, being on the right side of a couple of the ones that had some chicanery. Like, the, uh, the Hawaii-Stanford late.
41:21
Now, now I would, took the conservative route and laid the money line and thinking I was smart, but then Hawaii has the football and they're already inside the number. [laughs] So I'm like, "What an idiot I was."
41:31
And then of course- Yeah... they get the, uh, fumble return for a touchdown. So I did he- I did see one thing, though. It's like, oh man, Stanford got in the back door. It's actually not the back door. No.
41:41
It's the front door when the favorite- Not the back door. Yeah... gets ahead of the number late. And then it's the back door when the underdog gets with inside the number.
41:50
So it was kinda one of those weird things where I guess people are calling it a bad beat. There's a, there's, I think, a, a line of demarcation between bad beat and tough beat.
42:00
It was a tough beat if you had Hawaii, but it wasn't a bad beat because Stanford was the right side, and probably the deserved side if you really go inside the stats and look at yards for play and all that stuff.
42:11
And the fact that Hawaii did nothing, like, the first three quarters on offense.
42:14
I think they had seven points, and then all of a sudden Stanford, uh, decides to kinda crap the bed a little bit [laughs] and make this- Hmm... uh, a lot tighter than it needed to be. Technical term. I agree with that.
42:23
Yeah, probably not a bad beat. You're right. Just a tough one. Uh, what about week one? What are you looking at? Uh, couple I played. Uh, I, I'm still looking at the card, obviously.
42:34
And man, you, you used to have that graphic up, all these big games. Like, you usually get one or two in week one, and you've got so many featured match-ups. Uh, a couple I played. Uh, this is a Friday night game.
42:45
I laid the 10 with Michigan State against Toledo, and I don't think Michigan State is gonna be great this year. Uh, Pat Fitzgerald, by the way, is back in the Big Ten. Mm-hmm.
42:54
Lawsuit now settled officially with his alma mater at Northwestern.
42:57
So he takes over in East Lansing, and I don't think that they're gonna be that good this year, but I think they're finally playing the right quarterback. Uh, Olesio Maholovich, if I'm pronouncing that name right.
43:08
He was the back door man last year. Like, he got me in the back door, like, three times when they put him on to mop-up duty.
43:14
'Cause now Aidan Chiles, by the way, is the starting quarterback at Fitzgerald's alma mater, Northwestern. But they're playing Toledo. Toledo, new regime there 'cause Jason Candle went and took the Yukon job.
43:25
So I know the Mac against the Big Ten. Like, the Mac teams kinda always get up for the Big Ten, right? Because a lot of those kids wanna play at Big Ten schools.
43:34
But- I think Michigan State is the right way to go, even though I don't think they're gonna win a lot of games this year.
43:40
I think they get the Fitzgerald era off to a, off to a, uh, right start at least to go 1 and 0 against the Rockets. Spartans favored by 10. That's a Friday night game this week.
43:50
Week number one, remember, extends all the way through Monday night with the NFL not playing. Uh, what else piques your curiosity amongst the, uh, the bigger games perhaps?
44:01
Uh, well, uh, I, I'm interested I think in the, uh, in the Wisconsin-Notre Dame on Sunday. Because now Notre Dame, like it's, it's kinda like, okay, they're gonna be in the national championship, right?
44:14
They got left out of the playoff and, and, uh, you know, now they're here and they're playing Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, by the way. So this is a neutral site game.
44:23
Wisconsin, this is kind of the make or break year for Luke Fickell there. They've been a real disappointment.
44:29
Like, you thought they got him at Wisconsin, they're gonna start to win big, and they've gone nowhere but backwards. Uh, should be an improved team this year.
44:36
They have Colton Joseph, the, uh, transfer quarterback from Old Dominion, so I think the offense should be better.
44:41
Like, they were like dead last in offense in, amongst the Power Four teams in FBS in pretty much almost every category. So I think their offense is gonna be a little bit better.
44:52
I kinda lean Wisconsin inside the number because I think Notre Dame, that's probably gonna get to 21 because, you know, Notre Dame's that mission team that, you know, is wanting to make up for last season.
45:02
So you might wait on some of these. And, and the steam, if you looked at week zero, a lot of the early moves, i.e. TCU and North Carolina, wait on those numbers.
45:13
If you see a number moving early in the week, it may come back like, uh, on a Friday or Saturday, kinda like that USC number got too outta whack against San Jose State, and then San Jose State gets popped and they hang within the number the whole game.
45:27
So wait on that. You may get more than 21 here if, uh, you're looking to take Wisconsin. Yeah. When we used to have Dr. Bob on, he'd move it and then sometimes it would come back.
45:35
I asked this of, maybe you just answered it with, uh, Notre Dame, but I asked this of, uh, Kelly earlier, of all the big favorites, I usually ask this on the mega pot for the NFL, and I say, "Who's the most likely to lose outright?"
45:45
I won't say it in college football, but who's the most likely to have to play a competitive game into the fourth quarter of all the big favorites this weekend?
45:54
They're not a big favorite, but of those high-profile games you have listed, I think Ole Miss is gonna get all they want from Louisville on Sunday night. We accept the answer. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it as always.
46:05
You bet, guys. Thank you. Wes Reynolds, everybody, @wesreynolds1. That's the number one. Adam Burke will join us. We'll talk some NFL on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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