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Aug 5, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 5 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | August 5 2024
00:00
43:48
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you haven't heard, VSiN is now proudly owned by Mussburger Media. What? When did this happen?
0:13
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Or if you're looking to subscribe to VSiN for the first time, please visit, please visit, rather, vsin.com/special to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N slash special. It's Gil Alexander. It's Wyatt Tomchek.
1:02
Wyatt, I just got a, uh, text. You tell me, uh, if this is, uh, real or not, okay? You be the judge. Is this a real text or not? "Hello, I am Emma from Deloitte US Recruitment. Are you need a new job?" Hmm.
1:14
Are you need a new job? I hope you don't need a new job. Boy, they just, they don't make spam texts like they used to. Well, you know...
1:20
Wait, so the, the, my package not, uh, being available, that's, that's not a real text? [laughs] I should, I should- Son of a gun. I should respond. I doesn't, I does not. Um, by the way, we get texts, we get tweets.
1:33
This is from Chris Falica of The Bear talking about my, uh, sort of talk there at the beginning about taking swings at teams this year in Major League Baseball, probably more than you ever should at this point.
1:43
I think it's more of an open race than it ever has been. He says, "Should be round-robinning Mariners, Twins, Royals, Padres, D-Backs in exactus," he says. Let's see what Mark Borchardt says about this.
1:56
He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. You can follow him @basewinner and basewinner.com. What's happening, Mark? Yo, I'm having a great time.
2:07
This has been a fun season for me, actually.
2:09
Do you agree with what I, I, uh, the previous segment, I sort of said, and I don't want to be prisoner of the moment, but I feel like this year more than any other, we do not have a team that stands above the fray.
2:23
This is more of a free-for-all than it ever has been before. Is that true or not? Yeah, I, it's hard to tell.
2:31
You know, I would, I would argue that the, that the Dodgers are, are probably the cream of the crop, but the, all their guys are hurt. I mean, Freeman's been out for, uh, talk about an undisclosed location.
2:42
I, you know, and he, I don't know where he, if he's gonna come back tonight. So, and you put Freeman in there, then Betts is coming back, and then, and then Muncy. I, I think that that's, that's probably...
2:53
And, uh, talk about Yama be-- Yamo not be there, and where's Yamamoto? So you have all these injuries with this Dodger team, uh, but if, if they're healthy, I, that's a, that's a really good team.
3:04
It's a big if, though, Gil. Yeah, Freeman, of course, absent because of, uh, of an illness to his son, which has obviously been something he's had to tend to.
3:12
Um, so let me just ask you, pardon me, let me just ask you this, though.
3:17
So my, my theory being, folks should absolutely, because of how the playoffs are already, right, baseball even in years where there was a supposedly dominant team in a regular season, whether it's the Yankees or Dodgers or whomever, even in those years, the way that the playoff shakes out, right, best of threes, best of fives if you're lucky enough to clear the best of threes, those are still, like, cruel rewards for s- for playing 162 games, winning a division.
3:43
Like, you could go out, as Billy Beane famously said, "My shiz doesn't work in the postseason," right? That's the thing. So now you have it where these teams are not nearly as dominant, at least to, at least to my eye.
3:57
Shouldn't you be taking swings at teams that are sort of bubbly right now, that are kind of under the radar to the casual fan? And if so, what would those clubs be?
4:10
Well, I tell you, if, if you're gonna look for a long shot, I, I would have to say you wanna go with a team that has a good bullpen.
4:17
And, uh, a couple weeks ago, one of the, one of the many weeks that you've been out, uh, on vacation, Gil, I'm still giving you crap. [laughs] What?
4:26
I thought, I thought, uh, I thought Texas, I thought Texas was a good opportunity. You know, I have their bullpen ranked number one in baseball, and they're getting deGrom back, so, like, that's a huge deal.
4:37
Like, arguably the best pitcher in the league. When's he coming back? And it's like, I, I, you just can't get enough information on it.
4:43
So, so Texas for me at, like, whatever price, uh, especially if they get deGrom back, 'cause that's, that, that's an, an automatic win with the best bullpen. Cleveland's pretty good.
4:53
Um, a- I think they're 11 to one to win the whole thing, and, uh, their bullpen's number two in baseball. So I think for me it's like, you know, these bullpens are, are so important, uh, in,
5:04
you know, postseason play towards the end of the, end of the season. A- and the Padres have done pretty good. They're two, seventh in baseball.
5:12
So, uh, those would be three teams that I would, I would say would have as much chance as the next team based on- Hmm... on the ability of their bullpens, Gil. Based on the ability of their bullpens.
5:22
'Cause the two teams I threw out were the Diamondbacks and the Royals. I feel like the Royals' starters are sort of under the radar. We'll get to the Cy Young tracker a little later on.
5:32
Um, but they're three deep, which has always been a great sort of, you know, uh, understanding your, your bullpen emphasis.
5:39
That's always been a tried and true, uh, way of, you know, having success in the postseason, having good frontline rotation.
5:46
The Diamondbacks kind of, you know, the Diamondbacks are getting starting pitcher reinforcement coming, uh, with Merrill Kelly being the biggest example of that, and they did address the bullpen.
5:57
And they're kind of doing everything they're doing so quietly. I just wonder how you feel about those two teams. Well, looking at the Diamondbacks, I, I don't, I don't share your sentiment.
6:09
I, I don't, I don't like Zach Gallen. I think he's about league average. Jordan Montgomery's been pretty bad. Um, um, Faut has really been fighting. He's, he's fighting the battle, and he's good.
6:18
So, uh, for me, their, their starting pitching is probably mid-pack. Um, the Royals are, are an interesting study. Uh, I don't like their bullpen particularly. They're about mid-pack from a bullpen standpoint.
6:31
Uh, the starting pitching for me, there's better starting pitching out there, uh, including, I have them right between the Cubs and the, and the Nationals in, in my starting pitching rankings.
6:41
So, uh, I don't share that sentiment.
6:42
I know the, I know the market's different and, and I'm, k- I don't know if I'm in the, you know, the minority, but, uh, you know, based on the way I do it, Gil, and I look at strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball percentage.
6:54
Those are pretty much the metrics I use for that. And, uh, I, I don't, I'm, I'm not really that thrilled on either team. Sorry, Gil. [laughs] No, that's all right.
7:02
That's why, that's why we have you here, 'cause I wanna get your perspective.
7:05
'Cause your, yours is the most numbers driven, and you're, you know, you're the guy who a few years back, 2021, you came on this show, I think it was July 31st. I don't think it was August 5th.
7:15
So it was five days before this three years ago, and you said, "Robbie Ray, AL Cy Young, 100 to 1," and it cashed. Do you have a Cy Young play, AL or NL right now that you like?
7:26
It's, this is a really tough market to, to predict, Gil, i- in, in my opinion. I, I don't really have anything from a, from a standpoint of value, I guess. I, I like Skeens. I mean, I bet Skeens every time he comes out.
7:40
There's nothing that... I mean, he's, he's striking out m- you know, multiple guy- you know, up to 10 strikeouts every, every time he comes out. Like, how can you not bet this guy?
7:49
How can he not be the, the, uh, the Cy Young winner? And people, "Well, he doesn't have the sample size." Well, I mean, how much do you need? Is 100 innings enough? And that's the question, right?
7:59
So how many innings is enough for Skeens to, to win? And for me, I, I think that 100 innings is a pretty good display of, of how talented you are.
8:07
And if you had to guess, if you had to, you know, if you wanna watch the tape back, this guy's just dominant. I mean, I, I tell you what, Gil, you know, there's, there's never...
8:16
Th- there's, there's very few pitchers, maybe you get three or four per year, where you feel so comfortable with that bet. Yeah. And with Skeens, like, first five, Skeens, man, boom. Man, I just...
8:27
[laughs] Hey, okay, beat me. Beat me with this guy, you know? And, and so for, for me, it's, it's Skeens in, in that, in that, uh, in that National League.
8:34
But it's, I don't think you're gonna get any kind of, kind of superior... I, that hundred to one thing, that was maybe lightning in a bottle, Gil.
8:41
Uh, and, and maybe that's a once in a lifetime thing, but I'll take it 'cause I'll be ahead for my lifetime, unless I live past 100, which maybe I will, you know, if I keep myself up, right? Yeah.
8:49
Skeens, by the way, two to one to win the NL Cy Young.
8:51
And after the break, uh, before I launch into some football, AFC East, I'm gonna talk about Tom Tango's Cy Young tracker, which we always talk about here on this show.
8:59
And even, like, Skeens's last performance where he didn't have a quality start, from the tracker, like, Skeens has no chance now.
9:08
Like, it just, it's, the, the formula, it's so funny, 'cause you and I will get into the metrics, but the formula to, to, you know, to figure out who actually will win Cy Young is so simple, and Skeens is, like, in seventh right now according to that.
9:22
So we'll get into that. Uh, before we go, though, your plays today, sir. What do you have? Um, it's a tough card for me. It's, uh, I'm gonna go with the crapper parlay here today.
9:32
Uh, and we'll start with this Oakland A's. The second, uh, second leg of the base winner parlay, uh, the White Sox.
9:39
I- the, the, you wanna talk about probability of losing 20 games, even at, uh, minus 200, like, underdogs, so, like, the, the favorite's minus 200, right? The probability of losing 10 [laughs] straight is only 1.7%.
9:54
20 straight, it's like, it's less than, like, two-hundredths of a, of a percent. It's unbelievable how this, how bad this team, not just from a talent standpoint, but you still have to be pretty unlucky.
10:05
So I'm gonna go with, with, with the A's here. I like Sears a lot better. They're gonna bring up a guy, the White Sox Kai Bush, and, uh, uh, maybe he sh- he belongs still in the bush leagues, uh, by, by my numbers.
10:17
And then I'm gonna go, I'm gonna tie him in with the Reds, Gil. And Reds, Oakland parlay pa- pays plus 173, so that's really my best play of the, of the day, Gil. Yeah. Um, this has just been epic.
10:28
Like, do you have historical numbers? Like, how bad is this team in your whole database? Are they the worst ever? Uh, I, I don't, I couldn't really tell you that 'cause I, I d- I don't really keep track of it.
10:39
After, after two years, I, it, it gets deleted. All right. Well, we give you credit for the, for the double result. White Sox lead after five, lose game, because that has been your Rembrandt this year.
10:51
Mark Borchardt, everybody, at Base Winner. We'll come back, AFC East and that Cy Young tracker next.
10:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you haven't heard, VSiN is now proudly owned by Mussburger Media.
11:14
To celebrate, VSiN is offering its lowest price ever. Special three-year offer. This week only, get three years of VSiN Pro access for just $350. That saves you over 75% off the monthly price.
11:24
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today.
11:25
Get instant access to everything we do, including our daily best bets with a leaderboard to see which VSiN expert has the hot hand, betting splits to show you where the money and bets are moving for every game, betting systems and analysis from professional handicappers, 24/7 video access, plus access to all of our betting guides.
11:40
This limited time offer is available to both current and new subscribers. If you're an existing subscriber that'd like to add three years to your account, please email us at
[email protected]
.
11:50
Or if you're looking to subscribe to VSiN for the first time, please visit vsin.com/special to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N/special. Gil Alexander, uh, back in the fold here on The Numbers Game.
12:00
Wyatt Tomchek alongside, and Warren Sharp kind enough to join us this morning courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
12:06
Warren, the, uh, the author of his Sharp Football Analysis 2024 Football Preview Guide, which, uh, Warren, once again, for VSiN subscribers, what's the deal?
12:18
Uh, the deal is if you go to sharp.football, you can get this guide for 50% off, which takes the price down to just over, uh, $15. Beautiful. Just put in the... B- by the way, you don't have to be a VSiN subscriber.
12:30
Just anybody listening to this right now puts in VSiN as the promo code. Uh, all right. Let, let me just talk about something that we...
12:37
Let, let's start where we left off, and you were talking about how the Niners have, for the second year in a row, the worst rest disadvantage.
12:45
And again, what Warren's talking about is heading into a game, if, uh, the Niners are coming off, let's say, a Monday night game, and their opponent is coming off the previous Thursday night game, just to give an example, right?
12:56
That's a what? That's a minus four, would that be, Friday night? Yes, that would be a minus four rest disadvantage. And if you aggregate that over the c- over the full year, the Niners just get the worst of it again.
13:08
You, you, you brought up something off-air, too. Is Kyle Shanahan and are the Niners aware of this? And if they are, Warren, do they complain about this? I'm always curious.
13:21
I don't know if I've heard any coach complain about, uh, rest per se.
13:26
I have heard back, like, I wanna say in 2017, '16, '17, when I first started looking into it, it was because I did hear something from the Buffalo Bills camp.
13:35
I don't know if it was their head coach at the time or something, but they had been getting screwed by the schedule for a little, for like two years in a row, and so I did some analysis.
13:44
I was like, "Whoa, what's, what's going on here?" And then I started going in a little bit more detail every single year.
13:48
Eventually, Peter King picked up on it, saw 'em and wrote about it, uh, in his w- n- no, no longer is being published, but his famous, uh, article.
13:57
But yeah, I mean, there, there's a lot of people that, um, aren't necessarily even aware this is as big a- as big of a deal as it is.
14:04
I mean, I thought I heard Kyle Shanahan mention it, uh, but not g- didn't necessarily complain about it per se.
14:10
Like, if you look at the Kansas City Chiefs last year, w- this is like a betting focus show, so let's talk ATS, let's talk betting a little bit.
14:16
The Kansas City Chiefs last year, they had that stretch from weeks like 12 to 16 where they were at a rest disadvantage every single week.
14:24
And when they had a rest deficit last season of two or more days, they had that in five games. They covered the spread in just one of those five games. They won only two of those five outright.
14:36
When they played any other game where they weren't having a rest deficit of two or more days, they went 12 and 3 ATS and 13 and 2 straight up.
14:45
We're talking about 80% cover rate, and that's the best team in the NFL, the team that went on to win the Super Bowl. They were great when their w- rest was not an issue.
14:54
But as soon as rest became a little bit of an issue, 1 in 4 ATS, covering only 20% of those games, switching back from 80% cover rate in their other games.
15:04
I mean, if you wanna say rest doesn't factor into games, uh, that's fine. Go ahead and think what you wanna think. Let there continue to be record number of games that, this year there's 101 games that are being played.
15:16
That's 37% of the entire schedule out of the 272 where one team has a rest advantage over their opponent. That is the most in NFL history. Keep throwing all those rest disadvantage situations onto the schedule.
15:28
If you don't wanna bet them, fine, leave them to me. We'll bet those games. And, uh, you know, these games do, uh, end up covering at a rate that is profitable if you're just betting on rest situations.
15:40
Yeah, and the Niners, by the way, 'cause, uh, 'cause it does occur to us that, you know, people listening, "Yeah, but the Niners got to the Super Bowl."
15:45
Niners were 0 and 3 ATS, uh, lost by, uh, against the spread by a whopping 32 and a half points combined in their three worst r- uh, rest deficit games, despite being favored by 14 and a half, 9 and a half, and a 4 and a half points in those three games.
16:00
They just won, they won just one of the three. And all told, they were 2 and 2 outright, 1 and 3 against the spread when playing with a rest deficit of two-plus days.
16:08
But then the other games, they went 9 and 3, covering the spread, uh, in 58% of those. So again, this stuff does matter. Give us w- uh, when you look at the f- the full season then in total,
16:20
give us like a season win total that you look at, Warren, and you're like, "Well, based on my analysis, this d- this looks way off to me." Uh, way off, you're talking about just based upon rest?
16:32
Well, uh, rest- Or are you talking about the- Rest or rest and beyond, either way.
16:37
Um, well, if you're looking, if you're looking purely at rest, like one of the teams that I sort of had some intrigue with but couldn't get all the way there was the Indianapolis Colts, and I did not like their schedule of rest this year.
16:50
Th- th- their, their rest schedule is really problematic this season, so that kind of took me off of that one.
16:58
Um, you know, I think the Ravens lost some things this year, uh, from, from a personnel perspective along the offensive line.
17:05
Um, and so I have some questions about the Baltimore Ravens this year, but they're in such a good rest situation that I couldn't, you know, back their unders because of their great rest situation this upcoming season.
17:18
It's the, it's the best in the NFL, number one largest, and it's the largest rest since at least 1990 and likely in NFL history. I didn't have the data to... I track all this stuff back to 1990.
17:29
Uh, in some cases I can go all the way through NFL history, but in their particular case I did not, but I suspect that it's the best, uh, in NFL history.
17:37
O- one team that I am encouraged by, uh, Gil, this upcoming season doesn't necessarily re- relate to rest because they're basically a net neutral, uh, they're only minus one day net rest, uh, is the Detroit Lions.
17:50
And there's a couple of factors for that, uh, but one of which is, this is all like X's and O's, the stuff that you and I originally started talking about years ago that, you know, I would come on and we'd break down like some of the X's and O's of the game.
18:01
But, uh, with the Detroit Lions, they blitzed at one of the higher rates of any team in the NFL last year, and they got really good pressure, but they were not getting sacks. And I did the calculations.
18:12
This team's pass defense, it's in the Detroit Lions chapter of my book- Uh, they ranked number 31 against the pass last season.
18:20
However, however, and everybody knows that, like, they were terrible pass defense, and that's why the Niners were able to come back in that NFC Championship game and win was because they were able to pass the ball on this bad pass defense of the Detroit Lions.
18:32
However, if the Lions simply did not blitz at all last year, no blitzes, they would've been a top 10 pass defense.
18:39
They were excellent at still getting pressure when not blitzing, just natural pressure, and they were really good defending the pass.
18:46
But the, th- when they blitzed, they ranked dead last in the NFL in basically every single metric, EPA, yards per attempt, et cetera.
18:53
So I think that if they reduce the number of blitzes, and I've brought this information up, I'm talking about it publicly a lot, hopefully they're looking at it as well.
19:03
Um, and in addition, they went out, their first two draft picks were both in the secondary. They also added Carlton Davis via free agency in the secondary. They brought in a lot of new corners.
19:11
They're overhauling that secondary.
19:13
If they can get similar pressure, I like the additions that they made upon the defensive line, I think this team is gonna be, like, it, it's not really a, a shock to say I think the Lions are gonna be good this year.
19:24
I think the Lions are, like, right there to get back to the Super Bowl, in my opinion, this year. And the other thing that's a factor, although he hasn't been having a good camp, is Jake Bates.
19:32
Jake Bates, and if he's there and is able to kick some of these deeper field goals, the Detroit Lions ranked number 25 in field goal make rate over the last four years.
19:42
Uh, that's why Dan Campbell doesn't attempt them very much is because he has no con- he has more confidence in his offense than he does in his field goal kicking unit.
19:49
But Jake Bates could be that secret weapon, although I do hear he's struggling in camp, which is something that's a little bit unfortunate for me, because I'm definitely invested in a lot of the Detroit Lions futures this season.
19:59
And your bets, your bets are mainly on totals during the year, Warren? I'm on, uh, like, their over, uh, 10 and a half. I also took a alt win total. I also took them to win the most games in the NFL.
20:11
Uh, they were, like, I don't know, like, 11 to one or something like that, so they weren't the favorite in that category. Um, I wanna say I took them to score the most points in the NFL. Mm.
20:21
Uh, this is, this is now a well-known statistic as well, but they play 14 of their 17 games in domes.
20:27
Um, and we know Jared Goff splits, like, betting against him when he plays outdoors in the rain, that's definitely a thing. He plays a lot worse when he's outdoors, especially when he's in the elements.
20:37
And to play 14 of your 17 games in domes, that are a lot more comfortable for him.
20:42
Uh, and, and I just love, you know me, I'm very much so into play calling and offense coordinators, and I love the fact that it's a coup that they got their offense coordinator back this season.
20:51
Same similar situation to, like, the Chiefs somehow being able to retain Steve Spagnuolo year after year, even though he's one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
20:59
I think the Lions able to retain their offense coordinator is really gonna continue the upward trajectory of this offense. Uh, Warren, I can't say enough about the guide.
21:07
Again, it's the 2024 Football Preview from Sharp Football Analysis. Uh, VSIN, if you put in that, 50% off.
21:15
Um, but just, just for the scheduling alone, again, three games in 10 days, four games in 17 days, where the NFL has just gone crazy on both of those.
21:23
Warren has all of those instances where it happens, which teams and when, when bye weeks are negated, all of that in the guide. Uh, can't thank you enough, Warren, and appreciate any continued success, man.
21:36
Yeah, thanks for having me, Gil. Let's try to do it again sometime this season. Where do they go again? During these convos. Where do they go again? Let's- Uh, just go to, go to sharp.football. Sharp.football.
21:44
Let's absolutely do it during the season. Warren Sharp, everybody. Thank you, Warren. Right here on a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. Spanky on the other side at the desk talking Bet Bash 3.
21:55
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22:43
Let's go, Alexander. We get texts, we get tweets. Lou Finicaro, Gamblu, has texted in about the Warren Sharp segment. Uh, he said, "It pays to wade through 550 pages of Warren. Great segment.
22:55
I scour through that like a gold miner." It's very true, man. The scheduling alone, just to have that by your side as you handicap games from week to week. Like, "Oh, I'm on this team.
23:06
Oh, wait a minute, they have a rest disadvantage here. I should lock into that." And you think you can pick up on that week to week, but having that as a guide is a, uh, as a guard rail, I should say, is a good thing.
23:16
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Haven't read tweets this morning yet.
23:20
This is from, uh, JasonH11, "How many days does Wyatt have to be in the producer chair to be considered producer number nine and a half?" Uh, we don't do halves. It's gotta be three months in a row.
23:33
Three months, good segment. Yeah? Yeah, yeah. That's, that's the rules. Uh, this is from Mr. Bomb Apple. Mr. Bomb Apple, "Welcome back. I feel whole again. Thoughts on my Padres as a long shot for the ring?"
23:44
Like I was saying in the first couple segments, you gotta take a shot on, on a team that most folks aren't really considering.
23:50
The Padres are always a kind of, like, you know, cool person's pick anyway, and they're playing good baseball right now.
23:56
So again, based on the number, the number that you can find, they are, they are set up pretty nicely. It's just, can you get to the point where you can see them winning it?
24:05
They're, they have as good a chance as anyone, in my humble opinion, they really do, in a wide open Major League Baseball season. Uh, and this one is from Joby. Uh, "Welcome back.
24:15
Hope you could take some time today to use your platform to talk about the big news in the industry that dropped last week, namely DraftKings planning on surcharging players' net winnings at a rate of 3 to 5% in some states starting January 1st, 2025."
24:27
Don't get me started. I was gonna wait for, uh, Crack on Thursday to talk about this. That's when we'll do it, I promise you we will talk about it then.
24:34
And of course, I think it will probably come up on the panel that I am, uh, honored to moderate on Friday at BetBash III, which includes Billy Walters, where we talk about, uh, legislative stuff in gambling and just, uh, is there a voice for the bettor kind of thing, bettor being O-R.
24:52
Spanky, the organizer of BetBash III, joins us right now at the desk, at the shield here at the D. What's happening, man? Oh, nothing much, man. Thanks so much for having me.
25:00
We're getting really excited about BetBash and, um, you know, I, I make this pilgrimage on your show every year, Gil, to talk BetBash, so thank you so much for continuing the tradition. Bro, I appreciate it.
25:10
I, I'm honored to, uh, be a moderator once again. Other VSiN hosts as well, right, are doing stuff at, at BetBash?
25:16
Yeah, you know, we're trying to get a- as many people involved as possible, and, um, it's just, uh, it's such an exciting time. You know, this is, um... I- it's, it's...
25:24
W- we really ramped it up this year with 24 seminars and six live podcasts, so that's the big new addition this year. Uh- Wow. Yeah, so we're really bumping up the educational content and, and, and whatnot.
25:35
Six live pod- so this is BetBash III. This is old- BetBash IV, actually, 'cause- Four? The first one was in Jersey City. Yeah Oh, that's right. That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:44
BetBash was, the first one was in New Jersey. You're absolutely right. Yeah. So this is the third one in Vegas, but BetBash IV, so this is old hat for you now. This doesn't make you nervous anymore.
25:51
No, you get a little butterflies, um, you know, n- uh, nervous I wouldn't say, you know. I'm excited, you know, it just, there's always a level of excitement.
25:58
It doesn't get old, you know, the Hall of Fame is, this is our second year doing a Hall of Fame, and this is, uh, you know, you know, the list of, uh, luminaries that'll be present, um, is just unbelievable, so it's, it's, uh- So- It's incredible...
26:11
to the person hearing about BetBash for the first time, what, what, what's your, what's your elevator pitch? The greatest collection of gamblers in one spot? What is it?
26:19
Yeah, you know, I, BetBash, there's a four-prong process, networking, education, legends, and fun. That's kind of what we're looking at, and if you like any one of those things, um, you should come on down.
26:28
The, you know, there's, n- networking is the biggest thing, where you get to meet other sports bettors, you know, guys that love to do this m- either for a living or recreationally or a little bit in between.
26:38
Um, and if you wanna learn about sports betting, um, i- it, it's, it's, it's not just for experts, it's for amateurs. We have a sports betting 101 panel, uh, seminar that we're doing at BetBash, and I was surprised.
26:48
There's, I think, 90 people signed up for sports betting 101, and I would think there wouldn't be that many, but- Wow...
26:53
we, we, we get a lot of, uh, you know, int- intro guys that are just wanna learn about, um, you know, sports betting, dive deeper, and say, "This is the time to do it," because you'll be rubbing elbows with some of the world's greatest.
27:04
And, um, and a lot of the world's greatest come here, and not that nobody knows who they are. Um, you know, I don't even know some of them, uh, how good they are.
27:12
[laughs] But there are some I know, but not every, uh, people like to keep it quiet, so. So BetBash is August 6th through the 9th. Yes. So, so starts officially tomorrow. Yes.
27:22
Um, but really gets really full steam right after that, I would say. Yeah, tomorrow we have, you know, we, we have a couple of VIP events for early, you know, for guys that wanted to jump in.
27:31
We have a, a golf tournament, a poker tournament, and then tomorrow night is, we have the, uh, the opening night registration cocktail party. And, you know, everything's open bars. We have four open bars during BetBash.
27:40
If you go to the Hall of Fame, it's five.
27:42
Um, and, um, you know, and then Wednesday, like you said, Gil, that's when it really gets vamped up with the speed networking event that we have, which is kind of this- So explain that to people. Yeah.
27:51
So speed networking essentially is, is like, um, you, you fill out a form, you know, it takes two minutes to fill out, and then, uh, an algorithm runs, and a computer kind of matches you up with the 15 best matches.
28:02
So it's kind of like speed dating, but, um, you're not dating anybody, you're just networking, trying to create synergies with other fellow sports bettors and, or other things.
28:10
Could be handicappers, could be guys that might have a bankroll, ideas, you know, it could be mentors.
28:15
There's so many different classifications that you could, that you can mark yourself, and then it'll match you accordingly, and it's, it's, you know, people, there's people I know that come to BetBash just for the speed networking.
28:25
They'll fly in late Tuesday night, do the speed networking Wednesday, they're out Wednesday afternoon. Now are those people, those people are looking for what? Outs?
28:33
They, they, most of them I, I, the ones I know are looking for outs, but just looking to connect, and it's the easiest, most structured way. In two hours- Outs...
28:40
you can make 15 connections, and all you need, you know, a lot of them are gonna be duds, obviously.
28:44
You can't make 15 great connections, but I always say all you need is that one connection, and then that could just skyrocket. People have made huge, huge connections.
28:52
Lives have changed, and I say that not being facetious.
28:56
I- lives have changed, um, at BetBash because of the speed networking event and because in general, just, you know, a lot of people like to network at the bar, um, but speed networking is kind of structured for those guys that are a little bit s- under a shell that, and- Yeah...
29:09
you know, we make them get out a little bit more, and, um, and it's kind of structured, so they have to talk to each other. I've met a couple gamblers in my life that have been in a shell. Yeah.
29:17
[laughs] It's quite, quite a personality trait. By the way, Jason Weingarten, to your point, Jason Weingarten got a gig at Pinnacle- Yes... through the speed dating as well.
29:24
Yes, one, one of, one of many huge connections. Yeah. One of many huge connections. Wow. What's, uh, by the way, this year is closed? This year is full already?
29:31
Well, we have, we have a few general admission tickets that we're selling.
29:34
Um, the, the VIP, uh, tickets are all gone, so if you want, the Hall of Fame induction ceremony is all sold out, Legacy Club after party all sold out.
29:42
Um, we have a few, uh, general admission tickets whi- which we anticipate to sell out by the end of today. Okay. Where would they go to get those? Uh, BetBash.co. Bet- BetBash, BetBash.co. Yes, sir. Very simple.
29:54
Okay, for general admission tickets. Uh, what has been the thing about this? Maybe you already said it. Maybe it was the, like, the betting 101, where so many people show up for that.
30:02
But what's been the biggest surprise of all of this for you that you couldn't have anticipated?
30:07
The biggest thing, I think the, the big breakthrough that made, you know, the coup de grace of BetBash is the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame.
30:12
You know, uh, we went up, M- Matt Metcalf and I kind of asked Derek, uh, two years ago, asking Derek, you know, "Can we, um, y- you know, can you h- ho- house the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame?"
30:23
And he altered his sports book, you know- Yeah... put a, put, you know, put an, a, an enclave inside his sports book, in the world's most beautiful sports book, the world's largest sports book, and he was all in.
30:33
I thought he was, there was a little bit of resistance. He was just, "Yeah, let's do it." And, um, you know, Derek's all about preservation of legacy and, and remembering.
30:40
You know, you go up to the Legacy Club, you see busts of all the people that have built Las Vegas, you know, the Binions and the Boyds and the Gawns.
30:46
You hear all these names, and now when it comes to sports gambling, there are guys that have kind of laid the groundwork for people like you and I to be able to do what we do, and I think it's great to be able to honor those, um, inductees every year.
30:58
So that, that's the big special thing that, that kind of really, really, um, hit home with me.
31:03
I used to say this also at the South Point all the time, and I used to say it in Jimmy Vaccaro's and Chrissy Andrews presence, which is we really are lucky because, well, first of all, we're all getting older.
31:12
Those guys are getting older, and we're getting older, and so this- we are going to look back at this time as like, wow, what a privilege it was to rub shoulders with the legends who really made this industry.
31:24
Have you announced the Hall of Fame inductees for this year? Yes, absolutely. They're, they're on sghof.com, Sports Gambling Hall of Fame, sghof.com.
31:32
Everything's been announced, and you just mentioned Chris Andrews, Jimmy Vaccaro. They're part of the, uh, selection committee. Jimmy Vaccaro was inducted last year. Yeah.
31:39
Um, and, and it's just gonna be an incredible, incredible list, uh, uh, of inductees. You know, Ron Sacco, who is, uh- Oh, yeah... the godfather of bookmaking, um, Jimmy Evarts, who is the co-founder of Pinnacle Sports.
31:51
Geez. You know, Richie Bocciaieri, who is a legend in Las Vegas, Nick Bogdanovich, another legend. And then we also remember those that have passed on.
31:59
Um, Vic Salerno is another one who hasn't passed on, um, but Vic Salerno f- uh, introduced computerized wagering to Nevada. Geez, amazing.
32:06
Like, you know, that's, you know, to- it's just unbelievable what these guys have done. So for those who can't make it this week, but are wondering, "Okay, you're doing it again next year.
32:15
When might be my first opportunity to purchase tickets for next year?" So we're gonna give- we're gonna have tickets on sale only for BetBash attendees, um, you know, special rates just for this year's BetBash attendees.
32:25
We gotta hook up the people. You know, they show us love, we'll show them love. Right. But we'll then put on tick- put tickets on sale probably in, um, in October, um, for next year's BetBash.
32:34
Okay, for BetBash dot- BetBash five... BetBash five at betbash.co. Spanky, everybody, who by the way, let me just say, you might be the only person that could have pulled this off. Oh, no, no, no.
32:45
It just, i- if you have passion, you always get it done. That's what I believe. Thanks for coming by. Appreciate it. You're the man, Gil. My man. Spanky coming back with Samich Zamobombing on the other side.
32:54
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game.
33:10
Don't forget, you can become a VSiN Pro subscriber today. NFL and college football betting guides, unlimited access to betting splits, daily best bets, early bird price of $175.
33:24
That's full VSiN access through the Super Bowl. Look at those guides, Wyatt, very attractive, both our college and NFL available. Matt Humans, Wes Reynolds, Adam Burke, everybody does such a great job on those.
33:36
McInnis, Steve McInnis. Um, and again, we had, uh, you know, again, by the way, vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today to become a subscriber. And we had Warren Sharp on earlier.
33:46
His guide, we gave a VSiN promo, 50% off, was very generous of him 'cause he hasn't been on the show for, uh, quite some time, so we're very pumped to have him.
33:55
Um, we get texts, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciated. Tim Lawson, "Very excited for BetBash," he says. Um, this is from... Well, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
34:06
This is from Scott C, "What a great guest list this week on a Numbers Game, sports betting insights and info like none other." Very excited to have everybody on this week, and that is a definite drift from BetBash.
34:17
Elihu Feustel, Captain Jack on the show tomorrow, along with Drew Dincic, of course, our regular. Steve Fezzik, Rufus Peabody on Wednesday. Dean Sislen from Prophet, Matt Buchalter on Thursday from, uh, +EV Analytics.
34:30
Looking forward to all that. Fortenbaugh may be chiming in as well. We'll see. Uh, this is from, uh, Norm in Vegas, "Glad you're back. FYI, Hard Knocks returns tomorrow with da Bears in training camp."
34:40
The Giants pre-season one was fantastic, fantastic. Uh, let's see here. Trip Tepper talking about the rest advantage and disadvantages we were talking about with Warren.
34:50
"The rest disadvantage is magnified after week eight when players are more banged up," yes, "and need more recovery time, et cetera. Rest disadvantage in week three, for instance, less significant than week 11."
35:00
I would agree with that. Uh, Mike Rouse, "New shirt? I have never seen you [laughs] wear that specific shirt during ANG." I wore it last, uh, whatever, two weeks ago I wore it. So funny, Rob Moreno texts me.
35:11
He goes, "Ooh, new shirt for Gil." I was like, "He's worn it before." I just noticed it 'cause it, the, the design. Love that y'all are tracking my shirts though. Ladies and gentlemen, he is known for Zamobombing.
35:21
You can follow him on Twitter at zamobomb18. That's the number one eight. It's Mike Samich co-host with the handle courtesy of Progressive Gasline. There's your Zamobomb. What's happening, Mike? Oh, not too much, Gil.
35:32
Looking, uh, looking forward to at least being at BetBash on Friday, gonna get in early Friday to be able to see some of the festivities there, and I didn't know it was salmon shirt day.
35:39
I, I could have worn a salmon shirt just like you, Gil. I just didn't get the word. Well, you know, it takes a man to wear a salmon shirt, Mike, so, uh- [laughs]... we only send that memo out to some people.
35:48
Um, I have a question for you, first of all, with the White Sox.
35:50
This is, uh, so Mark Borchardt f- following up on his earlier segment, and this is, I wanna give Borchardt all the credit in the world 'cause we were doing our, uh, Q2 podcast.
36:00
By the way, Q3 coming up, by the way, Beating The Book Q3, quarter number three derivatives, uh, MLB show. But the White Sox, we wanted to get the numbers on this. White Sox total games played 114.
36:11
Games with l- with the lead after five innings in those 114 games for the White Sox, 42 times. 42 times they have led after first five.
36:21
And as we pointed out many times on this show, they're actually a pretty solid first five team. But here's the deal. Of those 42 times that they've led after five, 22 of those times they have... Let me get this right.
36:36
Games won with lead after five, 22. 20 of those times, 20 of the 42, they have lost. 20 times they have lost after having the lead, uh, after the fifth inning.
36:49
So that is a, that is a unbelievable rate when the average price is between pl- is, is right around seven to one.
37:00
So if you do, again, if you just bet that double result, which not everyone offers by the way, and I know you can in-game this too, but if you have this double result option which is usually a bet that's known for soccer, but that they lead after five and lose after the game and you're hitting that every, you know, if you b- bizarro bet you did it every time and you hit it 20 times, that's 140 units on the ones you won alone.
37:22
So even if you lost all the others, you're just so far up. Just an incredible quirk. Um, have you been fading them, Mike, or is the price is just not something you wanna touch?
37:31
I, I've been looking for unique ways to fade them. So like yesterday I had, uh, first five team total over for the Twins at three and a half. That was mainly 'cause, you know, Chris Flexen on the mound.
37:40
Uh, he gets rocked by the Twins. So I'm looking for creative ways to bet against them, and I think it's interesting in that stat where they, you know, they've, they've been in lead 44 times at the first five innings.
37:49
I'd love to know how many of that was with Crochet and Fried on the mound. Yeah. Because those two pitchers were very, very good. Uh, and today I'm actually fading them in the first five.
37:57
I'm gonna take the Athletics minus a half run, minus 120 first five. We don't have a starter announced for the White Sox, which means it's, it's a chance we have a bullpen game. If not, it's going to be a bad starter.
38:07
On the other side, you got JP Sears, who's actually pitched pretty well. Give up seven earned to the Astros two back, but still has just a 3.02 ERA through this month.
38:15
So he's starting to turn his season around, and I, I, like the fact that you, you hear that they've lost 20 of those games, it tells you how bad the bullpen is for this White Sox team.
38:23
Any time you can target the White Sox bullpen, I think that's a positive thing.
38:26
So been trying to find w- unique ways to fade them because the price has definitely run out on them where it's hard to just bet the other side.
38:33
Yeah, by the way, that scenario, the pricing for these vary, Mark says, Mark Portusch, but they range from plus 650 to nine to one. Ridiculous. Um, okay, you have a couple other first five bets today as well, yes?
38:46
Yeah, I do. Uh, one of my favorites today, look, I, I love whenever I can bet against Patrick Corbin. Probably the worst tenured starter in the majors at this point.
38:54
It's been like four straight years where we just get to bet against Patrick Corbin. Uh, the price right now for Logan Webb and the Giants minus 170.
39:00
Don't wanna lay that juice, but I do wanna look at the first five team total here for the Giants. Sitting at two and a half right now. We're gonna go over the two and a half minus, uh, minus 120.
39:10
And if you look at Patrick Corbin's stats against Giants currently in the lineup, they're hitting 37 for 83 with a 446 batting average. Is that good? Against Patrick Corbin. Wow. That is wild. Like I- [laughs]...
39:21
that's a decent sample size. 83 at bats too. Uh, if you're specifically looking for DFS or looking for a player prop, Michael Conforto, 12 for 34 against Patrick Corbin with five dingers.
39:32
Uh, so Michael Confor- or, but, uh, Michael Conforto, one of those guys you might wanna have in your lineup there if you're looking for it. And then one other play for me here. We're gonna go Astros first five minus 115.
39:42
Got Hunter Brown on the hill for the Astros, a lefty, uh, who has better underlying numbers what is, than what his stats currently say.
39:48
Uh, the Rangers bottom 10 in majors hitting against lefties, and for the Rangers you've got Andrew Heaney on the mound. Uh, he's a righty.
39:55
The Astros, they are top three in the majors hitting against right-handed hitters.
39:58
So perfect storm here with a lineup good against righties versus a lineup bad against lefties, and the proper, uh, arms on the mound for each team. So Astros first five minus 115, the third play for me. All right.
40:08
So Athletics first five against the White Sox laying the half run at minus 120 first five bet. Uh, Giants over two and a half first five team total, minus 120 in their game.
40:19
Logan Webb starting for the Giants on their side. How about the Giants being all adorable and hanging around? [laughs] Uh, and then the Astros first five minus 115.
40:27
By the way, Wyatt, your Atlanta Braves only two games in from being out, if you know what I mean. Out of the playoff picture entirely. Only two games. I'm protesting the rest of the week. Clear. Come on, Braves.
40:40
[laughs] Actually, I shouldn't be, I shouldn't be like egging the Braves on to lose. Like the Mets, if you could start winning games again, this could like be real quick.
40:47
We have a bet here, um, not only in real life, but also in that VSiN contest for the Braves to miss the playoffs. Uh, you have a college football season play you'd like to share. I do. Yeah, I got a team.
40:58
You know, I, I like the Ole Miss over, but everyone's talking about Ole Miss, so I don't wanna come on here and talk about Ole Miss and their over. I wanna come in here and talk about Illinois and their under.
41:06
Their, uh, their team total right now is sitting at five and a half. It's a offense that's not very good. Luke Altmyer looked awful last year.
41:12
It's hard to throw for just 1,800 yards when you start every game, yet that's what he did. Uh, and this is a schedule that I don't think is very favorable for Illinois.
41:20
They've got two easy wins in their first three games. So give them those two games. They've got 10 games left after that. Well, in six of those following 10 games, they're a seven and a half point or more dog.
41:30
Uh, the final four games are all coin flips for them.
41:33
If they lose those six games where they're seven plus point dogs, they would have to go 4-0 in the coin flip games to be able to get over this five and a half win total. The defense isn't very good.
41:42
They didn't do much in the transfer portal. This offense isn't much better. I, I just don't see how Illinois is gonna pull off a big upset, and I don't think that they're gonna win all those coin flip games.
41:50
So give me the Illinois under five and a half team total. You got it. Illinois under five and a half team total. Uh, we did AFC East earlier on the show. We did it through the prism of Aaron Schatz' FTN Almanac.
42:02
They've got it in terms of the, the talent. Jets one, Dolphins two, Bills three, and they actually have the Patriots way better than the market. They say the defense is gonna keep them in a lot of games.
42:16
They got the Patriots winning like seven ballgames. Do you agree or disagree with any of that strongly? Uh, yeah, I disagree with the Patriots part strongly. Yes.
42:27
I, I understand, uh, that the defense was good last year and good a couple years ago, and you could make a case. M- I don't see how this happens though this year.
42:36
Like this, they are so devoid of talent on the offensive side, and they're have, in my mind, holes on the defensive side.
42:42
Yes, they've got some good players, but e- to, to think that this defense is going to pull, do what the Jets did last year, right?
42:47
Where they consistently were in bad positions on the field all the time, and be able to really hold off these teams, especially with three good teams in your division.
42:55
I, I just don't see how the Patriots are gonna be able to win anywhere near seven. I have them for the least wins in the league. I think that was plus 750 when I bet it, and last team to win a game.
43:03
That was plus 800 when I bet it. I, I, I think this Patriots team is, could be historically bad. I'm talking like two and four- or two and 15, three and 14 type levels.
43:12
I wouldn't be shocked if it's the one and 16 season. I think this is a very bad Patriots team. I think they're last winless as well. We went over that market too. I, I'm with you on most of that. They're...
43:21
You're, you're so right about the offense. Like, um, they're trying to mimic the Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Cleveland structure with Rhamondre Stevenson and, uh, you know, what is it? Uh, for the kid from Washington also.
43:36
So it's like, yeah, it's not gonna happen. Not gonna happen at all. Uh, and the receivers are putrid. Mike, appreciate it as always, man. Have a good one, guys. Mike Savage from The Handle. We've done all we could do.
43:47
Enjoy from VSiN
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