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Aug 5, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 5, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | August 5, 2026
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. For all those idiots who believe in analytics This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] No, I am not Gil Alexander.
0:14
Dustin Sweetolson filling in today, tomorrow, Friday on the program. Kelly Bidlin, as always, is here. Lot to get to here this hour with our next guest.
0:25
Will Hill, VSiN betting analyst, foxsports.com, hanging out with us now in studio. Also the host of the critically acclaimed Should've Bet More podcast. And just so you feel normal, like Gil's here- We get tweets...
0:39
Kelly. We get tweets. We get tweets. He's my echo here. We get tweets. We get tweets. Uh, we get tweets. So people writing in, correcting us about some things real quickly. I wanna give credit where credit is due.
0:49
Jason Stark, the franchise tag is collectally, collectively bargained. That makes it legal. Same way MLB players are under control for six seasons. I still think it's unconstitutional, the, the franchise tag in the NFL.
1:00
Chris writes in, bigTampaChris05. This is where sometimes I think I remember my notes, and sometimes, uh, I don't. I, I said the, the offense for Tampa Bay was gonna be half Josh Grizzard, half Zack Robinson.
1:12
It's half Liam Cohen's offense, Kelly. There you go. Which makes a little bit more sense. That was more successful there. More tweets coming in at VSinLive, @DustinSweetolson, @KellyBidlin.
1:22
And now you can follow our next guest on X at, not the Will Hill, he is, Will Hill. What's up, buddy? What's going on? I think you said the next hour we have a lot to do. I think I signed up for a half hour.
1:32
Yeah, half hour. Okay, I was just- Well, well, we, we-... closing stuff out... I, I don't know if you know this, the show continues after you leave [laughs] Oh, good point. Good point.
1:38
I figured, you know, after I go, it would shut down. And sometimes into my own car on the way home. Yeah, well. Well, it's a dangerous game. Yeah. There you go. I'm not, I'm not your therapist. Again- No [laughs]...
1:45
sometimes you confuse me sometimes. I'm on the phone yelling about JVT and Stormy and something they're talking about on their show. So I was just yelling at Kelly. I was reprimanding him. The NFC South.
1:54
News coming out now. Jaylon Walker, the, the outside linebacker, he's done for the year with an ACL. James Pierce is probably suspended. But Kelly tells me that you kinda side with him.
2:03
You think the Falcons might be worth a look at four to one to win the, win the division? Yeah, I think you can get a le- a, a little over four to one, which, which I like.
2:09
But it's just, it's not a division where you're gonna need 11, 12 wins. I mean, the division winner last year had eight wins. And all right, everyone loves the Saints. May- maybe, like I, I know the schedule.
2:19
Everyone, you know, Shuck played well. Maybe that team will pop. But, you know, Tampa did not play well the second half of last year. And, uh, you know, Carolina, are, are they really gonna duplicate it?
2:27
So I just think it's a, it, it's kind of a low bar to win that division. There's a lot of talent. I mean, how long we've been waiting for Kyle Pitts? They got some skill guys. They got some guys on defense.
2:37
And I, I don't care what you think of Stefanski. Even if you think he's maybe a little overrated, he's a two-time coach of the year. Going from Ra- Raheem Morris to Stefanski is a massive upgrade.
2:46
Mor- Morris didn't even know when to call timeouts. [laughs] Things like that. And plus, you know, let's just say it's Tua. You're keeping him indoors. He's not playing in New England or at the Jets- Yeah...
2:54
or at the Patriots, where you get these 25 degree games and he's warming up and you know the game is over, and he can't throw the ball 13 yards. You're at least keeping him in his habitat. So I don't know.
3:03
Could they go 9 and 8, 10 and 7, and, and steal the division? Crazier things have happened. I think that four to one's a little too high. Now, have... To, to be fair to Dustin, have you bet it? Have you bet it?
3:12
'Cause I have not bet it. I don't think I've bet it yet. I, I- Okay... I, but I, I will. You will? Okay. Yeah. I, I- A lot of these are just, you know, w- Yeah...
3:18
where and when and shopping and just finally getting around to. But I, I, I will definitely bet it. Well, yeah. Well, and I...
3:22
Look, a lot of these, and I think thi- this is one of them, where like you kinda wanna see what happens in training camp, right? And if injuries rack up.
3:28
And look, if this keeps happening on the defensive side of the ball, yeah, I don't think I'm gonna be in on it. Yeah, I just think the defense was so critical last year.
3:34
And losing [laughs] those two guys, it kinda eliminates everything that they, they picked up some ground on. You mentioned Raheem Morris. It just got me thinking. Outside of... The only argument I can make is Adam Gase.
3:44
Is Raheem Morris the worst two-time head coach in the NFL? Ooh. Yeah, man. I mean, I'm- You gotta be up there... Adam Gase is pretty bad. I'm trying to think of who the other candidates would be. I, there's...
3:56
I know there's one. Listeners will, will, will, will, will tweet in, but I'm tell... I know there's one we're forgetting that's major. But to get two cracks at it and to be that bad, it's almost impossible.
4:07
He's on the short list, for sure. [laughs] He's on the short list if nothing else. It's a few guys. You're... Will Hill's in studio. Host of the Should've Bet More podcast. VSiN betting analyst.
4:16
You see him all over the network of course. Let's go over to the NFC North, because this is the division that I can make a case for all four teams here, Will. Like I- Mm-hmm...
4:27
I don't really understand the Lions love other than the schedule. I, I... The schedule is why, but they're starting a rookie tackle on offense. They still need a second edge rusher on the other side of Hutchinson.
4:39
They needed cornerback help before they lost [laughs] Terion Arnold. Now he's not gonna be playing football anytime soon.
4:45
I get that they're plus 170, but to me, doesn't this feel like a dis- division you take a shot on a little bit further down the board? I like Minnesota, and I didn't like them last year.
4:54
But it feels a little bit, to me, like the team two years ago, where- Mm-hmm... can Murray do his best Sam Darnold impression, where you put him... And I think O'Connell's a little overrated.
5:02
I mean, he's been there f- five years now and, and his performances in big spots have not been inspiring.
5:07
They had a chance to beat the once, uh, be the one seed and play the Lions that Sunday night, and really, you could point to that date.
5:12
And since then, everything has gone downhill because they got destroyed on Sunday night against Detroit. The next week they get buried by the Rams, and they let Darnold go, and they missed the playoffs last year.
5:20
But, uh, I could see Murray. Murray had some really good years in Arizona. Mm-hmm. And just under a better system with better weapons. You know Flores is gonna put a top 10, maybe even better, defense on the field.
5:31
Schedule's not horrible. They avoid the Seahawks. They avoid the Rams. They play the NFC South.
5:36
And you're gonna beat each other up in that division, so nobody, I don't think, is gonna go, you know, 5 and 1, 6 and 0 in division.
5:42
But as long as you maybe go 4 and 2 in that division, again, a little over five to one, uh, I, I think there's value there. And Detroit to me is gonna be an over team game to game- Yeah...
5:51
because I, I don't like their defense at all. I think they'll still be able to move the ball with Gibbs and St. Brown and Goff and, you know, playing indoors.
5:58
But, uh, yeah, I, I, I think they're gonna be really challenged. That's not a championship defense. Just not.
6:02
Isn't, isn't it funny how we, a lot of us go from, "Eh, I don't know if you can win with Kyler in Arizona, but Kevin O'Connell says he likes him, and if Kevin O'Connell likes him, I like him."
6:11
Like that, that's just kinda my mindset. If, if- If you're gonna get the, the sign off from KOC, then, uh, he, he knows he can utilize you in a way you haven't been used before. [sighs] I, I...
6:21
The only thing I'm saying is, like, I don't even know if I need that, Dustin. Like, I, I've always been a little bit higher on Kyler, I think, than most.
6:26
It's just for more it's, can Kyler stay healthy- No, the problem is-... can he stay on the field, right? The problem is Kyler's eyes aren't higher on Kyler because- [laughs] That's right. [laughs]...
6:34
uh, I, I- His hiatus... I know people think it's a joke. The more I watch him, the more I think he legitimately doesn't see receivers downfield. Like, I just- He's tiny...
6:42
I just don't think he can see them unless he rolls out of the pocket- Mm... is the problem, but you have Jefferson. Jauan Jennings was a very sneaky signing by them. Yes.
6:50
I think those two guys can take that short stuff that, that, that he likes to throw and do the most, whether it's Jennings moving the chains, whether it's Jefferson picking up yak. And then you touched on Flores.
7:02
They benefit from Brian Flores will never be a head coach again in the NFL. His defenses are always elite. He turns regular corners into superstars. W- where are you at with Green Bay and Chicago?
7:14
'Cause I think we're all a little low on Green Bay. And maybe we should give Matt LaFleur a little credit, but I, it, I'm having trouble getting there. Chicago has the hardest schedule, Will.
7:22
I think Chicago [laughs] might be the best team in the NFC potentially. I mean, Ben Johnson's really good. [sighs] Caleb Williams showed th- that growth by, what were they, plus 22 in turnovers.
7:31
They won so many close games. They had so many comebacks. That stuff, I mean, we talk about it all summer, that stuff usually does even out.
7:38
And I, and by the way, I think Minnesota gets Green Bay week one, so no Parsons. When you play Green Bay kinda matters because- Yeah. Yeah... you wanna play them before Parsons comes back.
7:45
And I think they play Green Bay kinda before the, uh, the tundra starts to freeze. And I know Minnesota's been hit pretty hard here.
7:52
Not pretty hard, but they, they went from being, you know, week one underdog to a, to week one favorite. So the, the market seems like Minnesota. I, I'm kinda torn on Green Bay.
7:59
I, I'm a little downer on Detroit than, than most people, I think, the more I look at it. I, I'm kinda torn on Green Bay.
8:04
I, I think Chicago probably regresses, but Green Bay's an interesting team because middle of the season, I mean, they looked like a, uh, like a legit contender to win the whole thing. Yeah, yeah.
8:12
And then they just, they lose their last five or six games just, uh, when, when you include the playoffs and that loss in the playoffs, it's just all [audio drops]. Well, no Parsons, no Hafley, Romeo Dobbs is gone.
8:20
It, it's, it's a lot of transition- Mm... and a lot of pressure on Matt LaFleur, [laughs] who's been a really good coach. You're right, by the way. They go, the Bears, to Green Bay week five.
8:29
Parsons says he expects to come back week six. And by the way, th- shout out to the listeners. They always come through. Boudin Boy writes in @NateBeSaucy, "You're thinking of Dennis Allen." Den- That's a good one. Yeah.
8:41
Dennis Allen. That's a really good one. That, that's probably the holy trinity, though, of getting two cracks at it. Yes, he is. Dennis Allen, Adam Gase, Raheem Morris. And then, uh, ooh, we should just touch on this.
8:50
Figlish 50 writes in, "Apparently Will, not the Will Hill, does not skip arms day." Oh, not at all. Yeah. Look, we should've- What's, what's your routine?... all done sleeveless shirts today, man. Look at this. Yeah.
8:59
Or I should've gone with Will. How many days a week are we hitting arms, Will? Pa- uh, I, I mean, a few days a week. I've got a little routine, but I've, uh, [laughs] I've packed on- Look at-...
9:07
a couple pounds since, uh, [laughs] since last time... look at those calves. I need to get on the, uh- Those jeans... I need to get on the Kelly routine here of, uh- I, I did arms day yesterday... losing a couple.
9:13
I'm hurting, but they ain't looking like yours, man. Well, I, I did chest day yesterday. Oh, we should've worked out together. I wish I could've done belly day. That's the one I need to work out the most.
9:20
[laughs] There's not enough of that. I'm, I'm still working on the, that, that, uh, alleged ab muscle that exists, so, so can't wait to see those one day, Dustin. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sure, sure.
9:28
Maybe in 20 more years? Yeah. I love when people go, "No, you, you have abs. It's just hidden underneath all of that." I'm like, "It's gonna take a long time to get there, brother."
9:35
[laughs] Will Hill is in studio hanging out with us. We're gonna do a double shot with Will. We'll do some baseball- I'm gonna jump, I'm gonna jump in real quick, Dustin.
9:42
The NFC North, bets have, that you guys have made. No, I haven't placed any. Have you made anything? I did make the Vikings one. You made the Vikings one. Yeah.
9:49
So I do think w- it's another division, we've talked about this before, Will. See it pretty similar to the, to the South, it's just opposite, right?
9:57
Like, all these teams, I think, are more bunched together than what a five to one on the Vikings would indicate. I think you've mi- make a stab at the Bears. That's a good one.
10:06
The one bet I made on the Bears, you might like this one, Dustin, over their total points scored for the season. Oh. So 415 and a half, where I'm just isolating that on the offense.
10:15
I don't need to worry about where they finish at in the division. I don't need to worry about the win total. Uh, just worry about that offense continuing to hum, which I think they're gonna do just fine.
10:23
It's two separate conferences, obviously. But explain to me how the Vikings are plus 154 to make the playoffs, but the Steelers are plus 140 [laughs] to make the playoffs. Like- Yeah, different conference.
10:35
By the way, I did bet this too. Vikings 22 to one to be the one seed. I d- maybe it, maybe I like it. I don't, I don't, I don't think it's crazy. Okay. I, I mean, they were there with Sam Darnold a couple years ago.
10:46
There you go. I, I, I, I regret when I w- when I look back at the, the VSiN NFL betting guide, 'cause I had the Giants over seven and a half wins. I wanted to have a long shot in there as a playoff team.
10:53
The Vikings are a playoff team. Like, I, I think they're at the very least a wild card team, but they, you're right, they can win this division. And a lot of this stuff, obviously.
11:00
I mean, we talk about these teams till we're blue in the face all summer. You lose your quarterback. Now, maybe McCarthy can be okay, but if Kyler Murray- No... loses- No, he can't...
11:08
you know, yeah, I mean, it's, it's- Come on, as a Vikings fan. He showed some pro- I, I was never a fan of the pick, never a fan of him. He showed some progress at the end of the year.
11:16
I mean, I know it was, like, the Cowboys late in the year on a Sunday night. He showed some season. Okay, I at least see it, but I mean that's, you have to caveat all of these statements. Well, you know what?
11:24
Hey- If you lose your quarterback, you're done. He's better than Max Brosmer. I can say that confidently. [laughs] There you go. But I, like Max Brosmer is maybe the worst thing I've ever seen on a football field. Yeah.
11:33
Well, one of the best things you'll see happened at Yankee Stadium last night. Have the Bronx Bombers found their savior for the rest of the way for their offense?
11:41
We'll ask Will Hill about that when we return on a Numbers Game. [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
11:58
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12:06
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets.
12:10
Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro[upbeat music]
12:25
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Justin Sweetolson, Kelly Bidlin hanging out here on a numbers game.
12:37
Thanks for hanging out with us however you may be tuning in, Sirius XM channel 158, YouTube TV, VSiN Watch App, radio affiliates across the United States of God bless America. Second segment here with our guy Will Hill.
12:49
We went football first. We gotta talk baseball next. He will be a part of Bet Bash later today, live taping of the Bears Bets podcast, I believe. More... That seemed like more of a question, but yeah. Yeah. I think so.
13:01
Now I'm, as- I'm, like, questioning it. I don't know if it's a li- Is it? I think so... is it a live show or is it a live taping? I don't know, I don't know what we're doing. I think it's a live show.
13:07
I think there's gonna be audience members there, so- Oh, really?... I think, I think- Oh, wow, okay... I think we'll all find out at the same time, apparently, but, uh- Oh, maybe we st- we storm the stage, then. Yeah.
13:14
But, I mean, ugh. Hopefully no one throws a shoe at you like the president had a while back. [laughs] Yeah. All right. Uh, last night you were traveling. Your family's with you here in Vegas.
13:24
Were you able to ca- ca- uh, see any of what went down with the Yankees? The debut of George Lombard Jr., he turns a couple double plays.
13:33
He hits a home run where, I mean, he looked like he was ready for that pitch his entire life. How do you feel about what you saw last night from the Bombers? Yeah.
13:40
And I don't know if you saw this, but his brother, I think, made his, uh, pro debut in, like, single A and hit a home run. Yeah. Same exit velocity, same launch angle, which is just almost bizarre.
13:51
But, uh, I mean, look, it's long overdue. I think part of it was, you know what, we didn't have the greatest trade deadline. We didn't get the big splash, although I think Garcia's a tremendous addition, a good bet.
13:59
Oh, yeah. I think a little bit it's, you know what, let's make the fans happy here.
14:02
Let's just try to, try to save the relationship this way and bring up the kid and, and make everyone forget that we didn't really add a reliever, add a catcher. But this all comes down to Judge.
14:10
If Judge isn't back, uh, forget it. Yeah. If Judge is back, that's all of a sudden, you got Judge, you got Rice, you got Garcia.
14:16
You got a hell of a one, two, three with, uh, w- with Freed and Schlittler and Cole, and maybe Rodon comes back, and, you know, you could move the Weathers and the Warrens of the world to the bullpen.
14:25
So it's all dependent on Judge, and nobody knows. Cashman says, "You know what? We'll see. We're optimistic, but there's nothing concrete."
14:33
And you run the risk, if you bring him back too early, where you're so tempted to bring him back. But if you- No... bring him back too early, he's done.
14:38
He has a, uh, you know, he, he resets it or, you know, he, he re-injures it. Y- you gotta forget it. You, see you next year if there is a next year. So the, it, it all comes down to that, and that's a big unknown.
14:48
No, no, no chance to, to do what you wanna do, which is win a World Series, if Judge isn't healthy. So I, I, I agree with the moves in that retrospect. But one, over/under
14:58
Anthony Volpe starts at shortstop, I'll put the number at five and a half the rest of the way. The rest of his career, or- The rest of the season. [laughs] Oh, under. Under. It's over.
15:08
Uh, I mean, maybe they try to make him learn second because- Yeah... Chisholm's a sec- Chisholm's a free agent, and they just, they go that route where, all right, we move Volpe to second.
15:17
Uh, Lombard's the shortstop of the future. But I would say under, I think it's, it's...
15:21
uh, unless he gets hurt or just completely, you know, a few weeks from now he's hitting 130, you probably stick with Lombard, I would think. Yeah. They, they, they moved Duvall.
15:29
They didn't make an addition in the bullpen. No. But I, I think the thought is Weathers goes to the bullpen where he has experience in the past.
15:35
Maybe, you know, Warren goes to the bullpen once you get into the postseason. Catcher, though, feels like the head-scratcher. Why they didn't make a move there.
15:43
Now, Austin Wells, I believe, homered the first game after the trade deadline. Yeah. But it, it's a little bit... Do you anticipate...
15:50
I, I know the reports are saying that he's not going to, but do you think the Yankees get forced and have to play Ben Rice at catcher? [sighs] I, I think if he could, he would.
15:58
I just, I think he might be so bad at catcher that that's probably- [laughs]... not gonna happen. And look, I, I mean, uh, you, you need a catcher.
16:04
Uh, Wells' numbers are just, it's almost like the, when the pitcher used to hit in the National League. But here's the thing, we talked about this a lot doing these shows before the deadline, Dustin.
16:11
There weren't that many sellers. No. Uh, the, the Rockies were gonna ask for an arm and a leg for Goodman. Uh, the Twins are right there, so everyone's, "Oh, I'll just get Jeffers." The Twins are in a playoff spot.
16:19
The Twins are right there for a playoff spot. So there's just, when there's not that many sellers, there's not that many teams to choose from.
16:24
I guess you coulda, you know, forked over the prospects for Adley Rutschman, but that's just, that's, uh, it's, again- Well, the, the Red Sox are getting crushed. Yeah.
16:32
So the, the Red Sox, despite winning and being the hottest team in baseball, they got annihilated 'cause they gave up way too much for Adley Rutschman. That's a price the Yankees weren't willing to pay.
16:40
Nobody wanted that trade, apparently. That's what, that's what I've learned over the past couple days. Well, now if, if, if the Red Sox do win a World Series, then they- Then they win... then they win.
16:47
[laughs] Uh, Will, Will, who's the, uh, it... Are these odds fair right now to win the AL? Is it still the Yankees? Should they be that big a favorite at plus 260? No. I mean, I wouldn't bet them at plus 260.
16:57
Rays plus 450, I would need more. The Red Sox- Who scares you? I mean, everybody. It's- Everybody? Once you get in, it's just... Boy, I, I, if I had to bet right now, Baltimore at 35 to 1 just- I do...
17:08
because you know what? Will- If they get in, who knows? Will, I've been doing it all season. [laughs] I'm so wrong about this Orioles team. I had them at the same number to win the World Series and the American League.
17:19
That's how disappointing they've been. Hey, it's the American League. A good week and al- all- It's true... is forgiven, and you're right there. I mean- Well, how about, how about Texas? Texas gets swept by Houston.
17:28
I know. They go from buyers to sellers. [laughs] I know. I know. And just a week ago they, it looked like they put the finishing touches on Seattle. They won three out of four, had a chance to sweep them.
17:37
They lost that Sunday game, then they played terribly since. I can't deal with Texas. They've drove me nuts for two years ago, for two years now. Last year I had them- Yeah... win the division.
17:43
This year I had them plus 450. I wish I had gotten off it once they took a nice little lead against Seattle. Yeah. I had- I don't trust them... I had plus 340 to win the division.
17:51
I was, I was being offered a pretty good cash out. Yeah. And I went, "No, they're, they're up." Right. "Why am I gonna do this?" Of course. The ca- and the cash out's never really- No, I know...
17:58
a fair bet, and you're better off maybe just betting one of the other teams. The problem is it's not a two-team race. It wasn't just them or Seattle- Yeah... or them or Houston.
18:04
There's three in the mix, and you, once you start, "Well, I'll bet the other two teams," it's not even worth it.
18:08
Well, I was told over the weekend after the Dodgers traded for Tarik Skubal it's a one-team race for the World Series. They're plus $1.60 to win it all. And don't look now, but they've lost five in a row, Will.
18:19
[laughs] I mean, it's, isn't it baseball? It's wide open. I, I know we all, like, hype up th- these loaded rosters. You lived this as a Yankee fan.
18:28
And I tried references, referencing this on social media and got crushed over the weekend. It was good for baseball when everyone hated the Yankees. And I think it's good for baseball that everyone hates the Dodgers.
18:38
Do you believe the Dodgers are inevitable here? No. No, I mean, the favorite, the rightful favorite- Yeah... but last year they took, I mean, Toronto not only could've won, should've won.
18:48
I mean, it took a million different things for them not to win. And two years ago, the Padres were up 2-1 at home with Cecil on the mound. Uh, the Dodgers were, were throwing a bullpen game.
18:55
They were very lucky to get out of that. And remember, it was, uh, it wasn't that long ago where, you know, the Dodgers were chokers.
19:00
They lost in the first round to Arizona and to San Diego, and they couldn't win despite all the talent. The last couple years, you know what? The ball broke their way and they won. Ball bounced their way.
19:08
I like what the Cubs did, though- Oh... because they've got a good defense, a good offense, and they got guys that can pitch into that defense. Holmes. Garrett's an underrated pickup. Gausman doesn't walk people.
19:18
He's been a little unlucky. I think they really revamped... The, the reliever from the Angels is good. I think they really revamped their pitching staff. I think they're still 18 to 1 to win the whole thing- Yeah...
19:26
in some spots. I bet 'em 20 to 1 at the deadline. I just- That's a good mo- that's a good bet. Now, I, I did bet it when I thought they were getting Detmers. There was that one report out there- Right...
19:32
and it seemed legit. But I, I'm good with Clay Holmes as the, as the other guy to, to Detmers. I th- thought that was a really smart move. And then you mentioned the defense.
19:40
Up the middle, when you're that strong defensively with PCA, Swanson, and Horner, you're taking away so many hits that would break through another team right now.
19:49
I, I think the Cubs are the biggest threat right now to the Dodgers, and we're seeing that they're, they're favored to sweep 'em today. The, the Cubs are the favorite i, in the third game of the series.
19:58
Which you can't get the Dodgers too often at a plus price, but I don't know that I want any piece- I am on, I'm-... of Eric Lauer. I, I don't know Oh, I'm on 'em. I'm on 'em. Oh, you're on the Dodgers? I'm...
20:05
Yeah, I hate it. I hate it, but it's just- Yeah... they're gonna lose six in a row. [laughs] Yeah, I mean, that's a d- [laughs] that's a dangerous thought process as a bettor. [laughs] I know, I know.
20:12
Like, you know, it's not gonna happen again, is it? Then you just... Yeah, it's... But I know what you mean. I just, I, I don't know that I want any part of Lauer. But yeah, I, I like what the Cubs did.
20:20
Holmes is a ground ball machine. Gau- Gausman doesn't want people. I, I think they're live and I saw at Caesars, and maybe these numbers changed overnight, Cubs to beat the Red Sox in the World Series exact is 100 to 1.
20:30
Red Sox- Hmm... to beat the Cubs is 150 to 1. I think it's one of those years. Now, the last couple years have been a little choppy.
20:36
I think this is one of those years where you could play some long shots with, uh, with, with the exacts, whether it's in the ALCS or in the World Series. I like that. I, I, I don't think...
20:44
I think it's, it's completely... I know it's a cliche. I think it's completely wide open. We are...
20:48
We're always pretty much a- as a group, everyone at the beginning of every year is all in on the Mariners because of their pitching, and then the games start happening, and then you're all out on the Mariners.
20:58
I hate saying this out loud. They're 22 to 1 to win the World Series. [laughs] Would you consider it just 'cause the number is so drastically different now? I mean, I don't think it's crazy.
21:08
I get it, but I'm, I'm not betting it. I'm, I'm not saying it's gonna happen. I have 12 to 1 from the preseason, so I, I, I don't really want any more exposure.
21:15
I bet them every year a- a- and they pretty much let me down every single year. Where do you come down on the MVP debate? Because Shohei Ohtani not gonna be pitching here. He's still pretty favored at minus $1.40.
21:25
PCA's plus 110. I gotta tell you, Will, I, I don't think Ohtani's having a year that warrants being the MVP. It's like the Judge thing. It all comes down to if he pitches.
21:34
I think if Ohtani pitches again, he's got enough good pitching banked where he's... I think he's eight and two with a 170 ER, even though he hasn't pitched well recently. He's gonna hit, what's he at, 28 homers?
21:43
So he's gonna get to- Yeah... 35. I mean, that's, that's still a hell of a resume. I would...
21:47
If I had to bet it right now with current numbers, I would bet Ohtani, but again, a lot of that is the uncertainty of when Ohtani's gonna pitch. I think he's gonna, gonna push to pitch.
21:54
I think he's got more pull in the organization than he lets on. He wants these MVPs. He wants all these personal athletes. Are you nervous about Slittler? Minus 130 AL Cy Young.
22:03
Are we starting to see some of the cracks because he, he just has never thrown this many innings? I think he... I, I think that's fair, but I also think every time he has one of these starts where he pitches bad...
22:11
He had a Tigers one a couple months ago. He pitched terribly. You know, he's wearing down, he's tired, and then he comes out and he shoves the next game. So, a mild concern. I think it's fair to have some mild concerns.
22:20
All right, a minute to go. Tell us, where can everyone find you guys today doing the live Bears Bets podcast at Bet Bash? Yeah, Bear Bet podcast I think is 1:00 Pacific, so 4:00 Eastern.
22:31
I think we're doing that live from, uh, from Bet Bash. Then I'm hosting VSIN Prime Time tonight with Femi Abegunde, 4:00 to 8:00 Pacific.
22:38
Oh, it's like the old days, the, the Mike and Mike double header where they'd host Mike and Mike in the morning, then do SportsCenter at 6:00. It, it... This is gonna sound dumb. Is this your first time...
22:45
This isn't your first time hosting a show in this studio, is it? Uh, so I've recorded podcast segments and been, I've been a guest, but to host a four-hour- This... Okay... show in the studio, this'll be the first time.
22:54
All right. It's all yours. Well, hey- It's all yours... I want, I want you to enjoy watching live action with three cameras blocking your view. [laughs] Also should have bet that too. HeyGorses the podcast. Check it out.
23:04
He's Will Hill. Give him a follow next at notthewillhill. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Come come with the kick drum.
23:22
See if you can get that m- movie reference for you. I'm Dustin Sweetolson. That's Kelly Bedlam. We will examine the quarterback tiers put out by Mike Sando of The Athletic later on in the program.
23:32
Still to come, Kelly found a fun market to go head-to-head with win totals in the NFL. The ones that jump out to you that might be worth looking at as we get set for the NFL season.
23:42
The Hall of Fame game right around the corner on Thursday. It's Carson Beck versus Kenny Pickett. And when you're drafting- It's gonna change...
23:48
your fantasy teams this year, if, uh, you wind up with either of those, things have gone very poorly- [laughs]... for, for either the, the Panthers or yourself. One, one or the other. Right, yeah.
23:56
I, I, I like to say this, Kelly, and by the way, you can tweet me your answers, @dustinsweetolson, @kellybedlam, @vsinlive.
24:03
I can tell everything I need to know about a person based on their favorite cheese and what type of toilet paper they purchase for their home. Oh, God.
24:12
Everything I need to know about you I can tell with those two things. I also feel like the next thing I'm gonna say is a great way to identify who someone is.
24:19
How you approach putting together a fantasy football roster- Hmm... says everything that I need to know about you. For example, I am a running back hoarder.
24:28
I will have starting running backs on the bench before I have, like, wide receiver two sometimes. I am someone that just... Oh, man. And it's an old school mentality- Yeah, it is...
24:37
that has not done well for me, but I just, I don't wanna have to deal with screaming bad running backs. And to help us put together our rosters this year, our guy Nick Whelan's gonna join us.
24:47
Rotowire senior analyst @whelan. You can find him on X, the L is a one. And he comes up after us on Prop Points with Jeff Erickson every day.
24:55
Nick If you're gonna give me your identity as someone who puts together many fantasy rosters, how would you describe yourself as a fantasy owner? Late quarterback and usually late tight end.
25:09
Uh, I am not willing to pay a premium for the quarterback position unless, unless you're getting extreme value. There, there, of course, are exceptions.
25:17
If you're playing in some of these big overall contests, you know, where your league is just one of 100 plus and you're playing for a big prize, then, you know, I think maybe there is an argument to, to lock in someone like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the past.
25:30
But guys, I, I just can't get on board with, you know, so many elite running backs, as you said, Dustin, and elite receivers available early on with, you know, paying a second or third round price for Josh Allen.
25:41
And to me, it's even more of a sin, you know, paying a fourth, fifth, sixth round price on some of these quarterbacks who, by the end of the year, I, I think could be finishing behind players like, I don't know, Matthew Stafford last year, who was, you know, right at the top of the board in terms of fantasy there with Josh Allen.
25:57
Jared Goff, uh, is another guy I really like. You can get him well after pick 100. Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence are widely available in that range.
26:06
I will tell you, I have an embarrassing amount, a questionable amount of Kyler Murray already on my fantasy teams.
26:12
Well- I am all in on Kyler Murray, Minnesota Viking, and again, this is somebody you can get in the 10th or 11th round in a lot of drafts. So I like to wait on quarterback.
26:20
That has served me well for the most part in the past. And this year, guys, it...
26:24
Look, I, I'm not gonna tell you not to draft Brock Bowers because maybe he comes out and has the greatest tight end season we've ever seen. He's certainly capable of that.
26:31
If you took Trey McBride early last year, yes, it worked out, but again, I don't wanna be drafting a tight end in the middle rounds. Mm.
26:37
I think you're sacrificing a ton of value when, hey, you could get Mark Andrews, who has been a perennial top five tight end with the exception of last year, in the 11th or 12th round sometimes.
26:46
The, uh, I, I just fired up a, uh, fantasy league for the first time in years, Nick. I as well ended up with Kyler Murray, which I was not surprised about at all.
26:56
[laughs] I don't wanna say it was a strategy, but I was very okay with getting him late. I'll put it that way.
27:02
Uh, the other one, you sent us over a list of running backs, and I think for kind of the basic fantasy strategy, Dust- Dustin, how do I handle things? This always used to be something of mine, too.
27:11
I'm avoiding older or injury-prone running backs- Yep... and running backs just on bad football teams. Well, yeah.
27:17
And Nick, you sent us a list of three running backs that you're trying to avoid early, and I think all three of these kinda check this, that box.
27:26
Yeah, look, I, I will say I don't necessarily have a problem drafting veterans.
27:30
You know, I, I tend to go for the reliable production as opposed to trying to get ahead of the market and, you know, be the guy who, you know, kinda cashes in on the, the huge value of the year.
27:40
Because in my opinion, more often than not, that's how you, you end up losing your league. But I am 100% with you on avoiding what, what I will admit are good players- Mm... on bad teams.
27:50
And there are two of those guys, especially early in drafts, who I, I just can't get on board with, and, and one is Astrageni, who is all the way up to an ADP now of nine overall. Wow.
28:00
I'm looking at the last two weeks over at the NFC, which is where you see a lot of these high-stakes contests that have been going on for months, and it, it, it just bucks the trend that we normally see in fantasy football, which is reacting to the previous season, right?
28:13
And usually overreacting oftentimes. But Astrageni was a huge letdown last year. We, we were taking him at the one-two turn, and despite me really liking the player, the situation was brutal in Vegas.
28:24
And I, I know the Raiders went shopping in free agency. They made all these additions. Maybe most importantly, they have a better head coach in, in Clint Kubiak.
28:31
But I, I just can't believe we're not getting more of a discount, uh, given what we saw last year from this team and the fact that, yeah, on paper they look better, but it's still the Raiders.
28:40
Do we really expect this offense to take a massive step forward? And look, the problem I have with, with dr- drafting Astrageni at that eight, nine, 10 spot is you, you are paying for peak production.
28:50
Like, just a, an okay or even a, a well above average season for Astrageni, you still might be taking a loss- Mm-hmm... on that pick.
28:57
So I, I just can't quite get on board with it as much as I want to make Astrageni happen. And then the other guy is Devon Achane, who I, I like even more as a player.
29:05
We saw what he could top out as last year, even in a bad situation with the Dolphins. But I mean, this is just a full-on strip down of the roster, like, that we have not really seen in [laughs]
29:15
the NFL in quite some time. I mean, how many, how many Dolphins players overall- [laughs]... could the average NFL fan name right now? Especially if you're taking Achane out of the mix. Maybe they can name Malik Willis.
29:24
Maybe they can name Greg Dulcich, who could very well be the leading receiver- [laughs]... for this team as a tight end. It's just a brutal situation in Miami.
29:31
I know we expect the volume to be there, but Achane is somebody we had serious, serious injury concerns about just two seasons ago, and I, I think that could resurface.
29:40
I'm not willing to pay a second round price for the only good player on the Miami Dolphins. Nick Whalen is our guest dropping thought bombs here. Love it.
29:47
You can catch him on Prop Points coming up after us on VSiN and read him over at rotowire.com. Let's talk about value.
29:54
Let's look at some, maybe some sleepers that aren't the conventional guys at the top of the board that you think make some sense.
30:00
This time a year ago, all the hype, Nick, was a, a running back outta Washington named Jahmyr Crossy Merritt. I drafted him in several- Mm... leagues. That did not end well.
30:08
Feels like the wide receiver version of that right now in training camp is Kansas City's Cyrus Allen, [laughs] who I'm sure he's just gonna be sitting there and I'm gonna take him over some veteran who looks like a wide receiver four on a team that has a better year.
30:20
Where are you seeing value in some guys that people probably aren't thinking about? Yeah, I mean, Cyrus Allen is somebody you probably don't even need to draft in, in most leagues.
30:29
You know, if you're in a, a really deep format or, or an overall contest, maybe you pop him with the last pick.
30:34
But I, I think the average player in your home league is not even thinking about Cyrus Allen, which is a, a good name to bring up.
30:39
Look, I, I find myself liking a lot of players ar- around or after pick 100, specifically, you know, we talked about the quarterbacks and, and the tight ends, but I, I think there's some running back value in that range as well.
30:52
You know, someone like Rashaad White in Washington, and he's been steamed up now into the 90s in some leagues in more competitive formats.
30:58
But again, in your home league you're probably getting Rashaad White after pick 100. The same goes for Kenneth Gainwell now in Tampa Bay.
31:05
And this goes hand in hand with some of the injury concerns and the fall off that we saw last year-... for Bucky Irving, but I've been drafting a ton of both of those guys.
31:13
You know, one of the, one of the last running backs I'm really comfortable taking, and, you know, you don't want him to be your RB2, but I'm okay in theory with him as an RB3, somebody you can slot in when you have a plus match-up, is Jordan Mason with the Minnesota Vikings.
31:27
Look, I, I'm, here in Wisconsin I watched Aaron Jones for a number of years. He was incredible with the Packers. This is not the same version of Aaron Jones. He's had health issues throughout his entire career.
31:36
I don't think that's just going to magically disappear as he gets into his mid-30s. It crept up once again last season.
31:42
And look, I told you I'm all in on Kyler Murray, I'm all in on this Vikings offense taking a huge step forward.
31:48
I think that trickles down to Jordan Mason, who had some really, really nice advanced numbers last year, but was kinda sucked into this black hole that was the Vikings offense under J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz.
31:58
So I, I think we're seeing some other players for Minnesota rise based on that Kyler Murray-led optimism. But you can still get Jordan Mason in the 10th or 11th round.
32:07
All right, Nick Whalen, Wisconsinite, before you get outta here, what's, uh, what's your favorite cheese? Dustin led that, led us into that. I... Do we have this conversation with Nick last time? I don't believe so.
32:15
I don't think we did. Nick Whalen, what's the best cheese? I, I should start asking every guest this. You really should. [sighs] I, I feel like this always comes up, whether it's, like, movies or something like this.
32:23
I'm not a big cheese guy. I'm really not. I'll, I'll eat cheese- What? Not a cheese guy? I like cheese curds- What?... quite a bit. Um, but I don't... I'm not, I'm not- Wow... putting cheese on most things, you know?
32:32
If, if, uh, if I'm eating lasagna, for instance, you know, obviously I'm, I'm willing to indulge. Okay. But I'm not going out of my way to add cheese. Like, when, when you ask me, "What's your favorite cheese?"
32:40
Like, I'm sc- I'm scrolling through, like, some of the default names I know. I do not have a go-to answer- Don't worry-... by any means. I'm not a huge cheese fan. Don't worry, Nick, Dustin has the answer for you.
32:49
C- consider this. Okay, what is it? Con- ju- now just consider the source here. That's the dumbest thing ever said in the history of VSiN. [laughs] I know. I just wanna be very clear. I know.
32:57
As someone who had the record for a lo- you don't like cheese? Oh, man. I, I'm, I will eat cheese, but I am not going out of my way to consume cheese. Cheese fries.
33:07
If I have the option, I'm probably not putting cheese on something. You, you represent your state so well. Y- uh, b- born, born in Green Bay? Self, self-hating. I know. Born in Green Bay, Jacksonville Jaguar fan.
33:16
Yeah, you, dude, you're- Ooh. Ooh... you're a self-hating Wisconsinite. [laughs] We're revoking your privileges. Ugh. We look forward to prop points later on today after us on the network. Thanks as always, Nick.
33:26
Appreciate the time. Yeah, tough way to end the segment, guys, but appreciate you having me. [laughs] So I saved the tough question for the end.
33:32
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
A Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Dustin Sweetolson in the power chair filling in for Gil Alexander today, tomorrow, Friday. We got a lot lined up. I'm forcing Kelly to do a lot of- Power chair.
34:04
I like that... it's from, uh, the Mike and the Mad Dog 30 for 30. [laughs] That's good. I like that. I like that. "I was in the power chair, okay?" [laughs] "Sitting there right in front of the, the producers, okay?"
34:12
That's how, uh, Francesca handled it. He, he thought, you know, I'm, I'm in the number one chair when it was like- That was a pr- that was a pretty good impression, too. Ah, you know what? I'm not good at impressions.
34:19
Eh, that wasn't bad, though. I'm not. I, like, I got who it was, you know? Like, M- Matt Humans does a good impression of me, but he just does the, the laugh from Eric in, in Billy Madison. He goes [laughs].
34:29
[laughs] 'Cause that's how Dustin Sweetolson sounds. That the... That's what Humans does. That's his impression of me. [laughs] It's pretty good, though, right? It's pretty good. Yeah.
34:36
I mean, I'm getting a little excited. Not gonna lie. I got a big guy, I'm a big guy with a high-pitched laugh. Oh. I don't know how that happened, but unfortunately it's the lot I was, uh- Oh, man...
34:42
I was given in life, so. [laughs] That's, that's the deal. All right. I'm curious what our next guest thinks about what went down last week on the show. In case you missed it, Gil Alexander was on vacation. Oh, man.
34:52
He joined us to look at the most wins in baseball for the month of August. He gave out the Detroit Tigers, and it was 60 to 1. Yep.
35:00
Steamed it all the way down to about 20 to 1 on the market, and he acknowledged, "Look, they're gonna trade Tarik Skubal. I still believe in the Tigers."
35:08
Don't look now, but Detroit's still winning baseball games, and we go to the source now as Paul Sporer, Tigers fan, joins us right now.
35:17
You know him from FanGraphs, @SporonX, and he joins us on the Progressive guest line.
35:22
Did you happen to catch Gil breaking down your Tigers and why he liked them to have the most wins in Mark, i- i- in the month, and did you think it was a crazy bet?
35:30
[laughs] I missed the breakdown directly, but we talked about it on text, and I, I didn't think it was crazy. I, I, I see the merit to it.
35:37
The only reason that I'm not, like, super gung-ho about it, even as a Tigers fan, like, I think they can s- keep winning games still, but that bullpen stinks.
35:45
And one, one of the things that always bothered me was, like, as they were making this comeback, I thought they should've been one of the first teams to act and start rebuilding that bullpen.
35:54
It doesn't take a lot to do that. You can do that in late June, early July, and if it doesn't work, even maybe flip those guys, right?
36:01
Just go get some waiver wire guys, maybe a trade for somebody from, like, a, uh, one of the terrible teams out there. Maybe jump on the Mets early. They had relievers for days.
36:10
That's the tough part for Gilliam is that this bullpen, they're just wretched.
36:17
So even when the good starters that they do have left, like Troy Melton last night, are getting leads and the offense is getting leads, I worry about the pen.
36:24
And I'm not just talking about the bridge to Kenley, but really Kenley himself. He's allowed some nasty walk-offs this year. So I see some merit in it, and obviously [laughs]
36:36
with two aces gone he's got an uphill battle, but, uh, I think it's gonna be tough 'cause of the pen. Oh, man. We'll see. We'll see how it plays out. A great start for you, Gil.
36:43
Uh- I hope he's right, obviously- But, uh, yeah... a- as, as a Tigers diehard.
36:46
Uh, Paul, just looking at the American League, uh, in general, I mean, we got Yankees are plus 260 to win the AL, then it drops down to the Rays at plus 450.
36:55
At which, which team in the American League do you believe in the most at this point to make a run in the playoffs? Man, I'm all over the Red Sox still.
37:04
Now, I came into the season on them, and so when they were playing horribly I'm, you know, questioning myself, "What a terrible call. What were you thinking?"
37:11
And so then when they came around, you know, a little bit of confirmation bias, like, yes, this is what I was thinking. But also I think- They were getting to their level. Mm. They were playing at a low level.
37:19
Same with the Tigers, right? Both those teams got out to just catastrophic, uh, starts that really put them, uh, behind the eight ball.
37:26
Of course, the Red Sox got the mega win streak that really put them back into contention completely. The Tigers played consistently well since June 1st and then did nothing to, to reinforce it.
37:36
But I look at this Boston team, even if they don't get Crochet back, I really, really like how they set up. I think they still have a lot of depth of pitching, even after trading Connelly early.
37:45
We'll see what happens with Mead. Obviously, that immediately blew up on them, which is just bad luck.
37:51
But if Mead and Adley can come back, both of whom are injured right now, those are two big reinforcements into their lineup that has been hitting a lot better.
37:58
Uh, the Yankees, I understand why they're at the top because they have the great pitching, and if and when Belly and Judge come back, I, I can see them as the number one.
38:07
But right now, Boston's my number one seed in the, in the American League right now. You can still get the Boston Red Sox 15 to 1. You mentioned no Crochet.
38:15
How about them doing it without Roman Anthony, who a lot of people- Right... thought would be an MVP candidate this season as well. [laughs] Dustin, wh- where is Christian Campbell? He's on the side of a milk carton.
38:24
A- a- as far as another guy. Like, right? Yeah. So, you know, between no Anthony, no Campbell, pretty much no Crochet, and then they've come back around, that's pretty, pretty impressive. By the way, the...
38:35
what has happened to Anthony, and that's injury, so I don't wanna go too hard on him. Sure. But the, the fade of Campbell is why I don't wanna hear about how bad the prospect haul is that, that teams give up.
38:45
Prospects are prospects, and things aren't guaranteed with them. So I know they got a little bit of heat for that Adley deal. I thought it was fine.
38:54
They paid to get a premium catcher, and whose health, when healthy is a premium catcher, and that's what it costs. It costs money to get player, good players.
39:02
Paul, the irony is that that deal's going back the prospects to Baltimore, who have refused to part with all of kind of the same- Yes... type of player for- Yep...
39:11
for a decade now, and they have nothing to show for all these top graphics. Nothing. Because the odds of all of them or most of them working out i- is slim to none. Adley was the- No use...
39:21
beginning of it, and they didn't utilize him to capitalize on this window. You- you're dead right. They, they, they have really lost that window now.
39:28
They still have some of the guys there, but they'd have to kind of create a new competitive window here. They never really had the pitching.
39:34
I thought they were gonna follow the Cubs model with, you know, with the Bryant, Baez, Rizzo era, which was build the foundational hitting, which they had with Gunnar and all his lookalikes.
39:43
All, all those guys kind of look the same with that moppy hair, uh, a- and the really good athletics. But they never brought the pitching. And when they didn't re-sign Burns, and I know he blew up, right?
39:53
He m- he probably would've just blown up with them, too, uh, injury-wise. But, like, they didn't re-sign him. They didn't go out and be aggressive.
40:00
The, uh, the ownership even gave the Orioles the go-ahead on money, and Elias said, "No, I wanna do it this way," you know, "with one hand tied behind my back."
40:07
I don't know what they're doing in Baltimore, but they do get another group of prospects here. We'll see if they can turn that into anything. But I think the prospect hugging has gone too far.
40:16
I was glad to see that the, that things loosened up in this deadline. We saw 10 top 100 guys go, and I like that. I think you should be trading prospects when you have a real chance to do something.
40:26
Paul Sporer's our guest. Fangraphs.com. @Sporer on X is where you can find him. Speaking of prospects, the Detroit Tigers acquired a few from the Dodgers in exchange for Tarik Skubal. They lose the Dodgers.
40:37
Skubal's first start at Wrigley Field, first one in a Dodger uniform. Mm-hmm. Cubs are going for a sweep today. The Cubs are favored to complete the sweep.
40:46
Your perspective on the Dodgers, 'cause Paul, like, while I love what they did because I, I think having a team to hate is good for baseball. I think having a team- I agree. Completely agree there...
40:53
going all in is really good for the sport. Uh, you always need an enemy here, and dynasties are actually good for baseball, but they're plus a dollar, what, 50 to win the World Series.
41:03
You've watched baseball your whole life. It's never a sure thing that a loaded team like that finishes the job. Who would you anticipate being the biggest challengers?
41:13
Well, you know, when you're, when you're starting to look back, I think the NL is obviously much tougher than the AL there. So I think they're gonna have a, a tougher row to hoe just in general.
41:22
I wanna say the Brewers, but we've been on this whole like why doesn't their stuff work in the playoffs? And I don't know if you guys are familiar with the YouTuber, uh, Foolish Baseball.
41:31
He does amazing YouTube breakdowns of baseball-related topics, and he did one on the Brewers and basically said that they're bad pitcher merchants.
41:39
And what, what, what the breakdown was was that they beat up on the worst pitchers, and that's part of why their stuff doesn't work in the playoffs necessarily or hasn't to this point.
41:47
So while I want to say that team, I really think their chief rival in the Central, the Cubs, the team beating the Dodgers right now, poses the biggest risk to them, especially because they're gonna keep adding by way of, of getting guys healthy, right?
42:01
And a few other teams will, too.
42:02
But not only did they go out and make a lot of aggressive moves that I liked, the Cubs, but they're gonna get Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera, and of course, Clay Holmes, one of their acquisitions, are likely to come back.
42:12
Now, nothing's guaranteed when guys are hurt, but if they get all three of them back with everything that they have, with the hitting and defense that they have, I really think this Cubs team is loaded for bear.
42:21
And when they lost Cade Horton and Justin Steele this year, and they, you know, two legs cut out from under them, I thought they were gonna have a really tough time.
42:28
The way they've managed in-season, I've been super impressed with.
42:31
I think not just because they're taking two of three right now and maybe a sweep today, but I think they have a chance to topple the Dodgers in October as well. Yeah. Can I play the award game with you guys real quick?
42:41
Yeah. I'll b- I'll play it with you. Of course. Cy, AL Cy Young. Schlitter minus 130, Dylan Cease plus 110. These numbers seemingly just have not budged in like, what, two weeks now, Dustin, it feels like, right? Right.
42:51
Yeah. Rasmusen down at 22 to 1, Logan Gilbert 40 to 1, everybody else 45 to 1 or longer. Would you guys go Schlitter, Cease, or somebody else? If you had to bet $100 today, I'll start with you, Paul Sporer.
43:05
Yeah, I've never taken the favorite in these when there's so much time left. Like, o- outside of, like, an Ohtani thing, which even then it's like, why? Because it's probably minus 1,000.
43:13
But you know, like, I'm never jumping on these favorites when it's, when it's this wide open. Drew Rasmusen for me. I, I love him. Okay. I think he's, I think he's a true ace. He's a, he's a modern ace, right?
43:22
Because he is more of a five and dive six guy, six-inning guy, but he's an absolute monster.
43:27
And even though I hate that team performance plays a role in these individual awards, the fact that the Rays are good won't, you know, will help him there, too. So give me Rasmusen. Yeah. Dustin, Swedelford.
43:36
I like where your head's at, just because, one, Schlitter, I've been concerned about the innings all year long. Yeah. He's never thrown as many as he's already thrown, and we're seeing it start to wear.
43:44
Cease is the most volatile guy out there. Rasmusen at 22 to 1. H- here's the one that, that I don't really understand.
43:50
I think Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, both, both from the Guardians, might have a case before- Mm-hmm... it's all said and done. It's just Gavin Williams' CRA- Great calls... needs to be a little bit lower.
43:58
But at the prices, I, I don't hate the idea of looking there. There's just not a lot of great options. Paul, appreciate the conversation as always, man.
44:05
Everyone check out Paul on X, @Sporer, and over at FanGraphs as well. And, uh, who knows? Maybe we'll be talking about your Tigers in the postseason still, even without Tarik Skubal. They did it in '24.
44:15
Let's see if they can do it again. Great talking with you gents. Take care.
A Numbers Game
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