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Aug 7, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 7, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | August 7, 2025
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44:52
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. I said YouTube TV, is what I said right there. Yeah.
0:20
Just in case you were wondering. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlack in the hizzy. What's up? On a Thursday. How you doing, man? I'm doing great. We- It's a beautiful Thursday in Las Vegas.
0:29
It's a beautiful Thursday on the show because what happened here is that Stevie Fezzik can't do the show tomorrow. Mm-hmm.
0:36
So we have, uh, we have wedged, we have, uh, jerry-rigged him, we have crowbarred him into the Thursday show. That's right. So, so Steve Fezzik for a half-hour this hour, followed by Unscripted with the Crag Man.
0:49
Uh, we tried to, we tried to come up with, you know, Zach Kidd couldn't make it today.
0:52
Usually it's the, uh, the Zach and Crack show on Thursday, and then we were like, "Well, Zach can't make it, so how do we f- do we have any guests that rhyme with crack?" [laughs] And we were like, "Pete Futak," right?
1:03
Yes. So we're like- So we lied to you in the promo if you were like that. We lied to you in the promo. Yeah.
1:06
So we said it was gonna be Futak and Crack, and then f- then Fezzik said he couldn't come tomorrow, so we've changed Fezzik and Futak. So it's Fezzik and Crack on a Thursday is what I'm saying. That's right. Let's go.
1:14
All I have to say. Go ahead. The heavy hitters. Oh, it took me f- 50 sec- 50 minutes to get that out.
1:19
You ever seen the, uh, wasn't it, was it a Curb Your Enthusiasm where they had like the, the carpool lane where they had like the dummy in the side seat? Yes. HOV lane.
1:26
The, the crew and I were coming up with, uh, we should just have like a dummy Kelly in the seat here for the first two segments. Like, I could've just taken the day off. We got Steve and Crack for an hour and a half.
1:34
Well, there's still time. Still [laughs] time. [laughs] By the way, I have an update for you, Kelly.
1:39
Kelly, we sent Kelly to Montreal, uh, a couple weeks ago, uh, hoping for him to get this date with Leila Fernandez, slide into her DMs. She was, uh- I me- I was too early, man. She, she, oh, you were, dude.
1:49
We sent you too early. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That was afterward, yeah. She won in DC. I have an update on the date. She went on the date. Oh, are you serious? There's, there's not much to tell.
1:55
She was super nervous about it. She didn't know what to wear. She didn't know, uh, if she, if she should wear makeup or not. She went on the date. She thinks it went well. She hopes he thinks it went well.
2:03
I'm bizarrely fascinated by this. Yeah. Maybe not how we should be leading the show, but I'm fascinated by this. I have just a, just a, a pro- I have a follow-up question. Wasn't this her first date ever?
2:10
First date ever, 24 years old. And, and this was still just a random solicited person online? A dude. Some dude just- Some dude... just, just hit her up.
2:19
Imagine if that happened in other sports, where like, you know, what if, what if Kelsey Plum did that? Sure. What if- Or the other, or, I mean- Or the other way around. Yeah.
2:28
What if Josh Allen- What if, what if- Bad example. What if- What if Trevor Lawrence wanted to go out on a date? What if Shaedon Daniels did that? Yeah. Yeah. No? Anyway, speaking of that, let's l- It is fascinating.
2:37
I'm glad... let me start with, with, by the way- Be careful, Leila. It, it isn't with, uh, yeah, exactly. [laughs] That's very true. But you be careful. Be careful, 'cause nothing bad happens in DMs.
2:44
Uh, besides Fezzik and Crack, we'll talk Offensive Player of the Year, which we didn't get to yesterday in the NFL. Uh, let's start out with some picks. I do have some tennis plays. Naomi got home yesterday.
2:53
There you go. Um, after Maddie Keys didn't show up the day before against Clara Tauson, Naomi sure did. Straight set win over Clara Tauson.
3:01
So Naomi, uh, we hit as a w- we had, like, 35 cents of CLV on this, so thankfully the CLV came home.
3:08
Naomi's in the final today in Montreal, I think you say at Montreal, against Victoria Mboko, the Canadian, uh, upstart who is just gonna be a fabulous tennis player.
3:19
But we have this- Got a lot of excitement about her, right? Oh, massive excitement, but the, here's the weird thing. They're playing the final in Montreal today, as they are in Toronto, by the way, on the men's side.
3:28
Of the National Bank Open. And they are starting in Cincinnati today.
3:33
So what they've done is they've, they're wedging the two 1000 tournaments into a three-week span before the US Open, which they don't do with the Sunshine Double.
3:41
They don't do that with the Miami Open and, uh, Indian Wells before that. They do that over four weeks. You know, one tournament ends, the next one begins. Here they're, they're overlapping.
3:50
So, like, Naomi and Mboko, I don't know when they're playing their first round match in Cincinnati, but anyway, I have four plays. Right. Wait, so how does that, yeah. Are they getting a bye?
3:59
Uh, the winner will, but Mboko's in the first round. She's not getting a bye. [laughs] I, I, uh, how does that scheduling work? I don't know. That's crazy. They're gonna, that, that's what I'm saying.
4:08
They are gonna, they're, they're- It's kind of cool.
4:09
Like, if you're, if you're running out of time, I don't mind the idea, but, like, from a betting standpoint, and then just from trying to win a tennis tournament standpoint, this sounds tough.
4:17
Well, I, I have Osaka today in the final in Montreal. Laid minus 158 on Naomi Osaka to beat Mboko in, uh, in Montreal. But then in Cincinnati, three plays today. Two on the ladies' side, one on the men's side.
4:32
On the ladies' side, Katie Boulter versus Olga Dan- Danilovic. Have Boulter at minus 113. Um, two players who have floundered in the last six months in terms of their hardcore data.
4:44
Uh, I'll take the better of two evils, in my opinion. Boulter over Danilovic. Then the upset, um, predicting Yafan Wang, uh, over Peyton Stearns.
4:51
Peyton Stearns, when we last saw her, was losing to Venus Williams, 45-year-old Venus Williams. Oh, yeah. I don't know what's going on with her, but plus 146 on Yafan Wang.
5:00
And then on the men's side, Zizou Bergs versus Jacob Fearnley at plus 112 for Zizou Bergs. So Osaka in Montreal, Boulter, Wang, and Bergs in Cincinnati.
5:10
One of these days I, I will power rank, uh, names in tennis, but Zizou Bergs is definitely up there. You should name, when you have a son, you should name him Zizou. I, I, it's a great, that's a great name.
5:20
Zizou Bidlack. I, I would consider it. Zizou Bidlack. Zizou Bidlack. Yeah. That, that, that rolls off the tongue. Yeah. Zizou. You look like a guy who would have a son with a first name of, that starts with a Z.
5:28
[laughs] Zachary Bidlack or something like that. Yeah. Here's Z- here's me, here's my son Zizou going to the zoo, checking things out. Zizou. You wanna keep going, or? No, no, we're good. Okay.
5:41
[laughs] We, uh, preseason NFL football today. Let's go. Uh- Pumped... let's, uh, so we have three games. We have another line move in the Giants game, first of all, we should point that out.
5:51
That's not, that, that's not one of the games today, right? Yeah, that is Saturday. But- That was one flashing this morning... but that's, so, so this is another example of there was a wave already.
6:00
So the, the Bills were favored to begin with. Then there was a move on the Giants, 'cause I guess people figure, "Well, what do the Bills have to play for," right? They just wanna get everybody unhurt in three games.
6:11
And then it was announced today, this morning, Josh Allen's not playing, the confirmation of Josh Allen playing. Correct. Which everybody kind of knew anyway, and so then it moved again, Giants minus three and a half.
6:24
I really do wanna track this notion, and let's, we, we should probably rehash- This moves, like, two and a half points off of that. [laughs] It's just so- I, I bet the Giants.
6:32
I bet it before it moved, um, just, to just, just 'cause I can't help myself when I see a move like that. And what I was thinking though, Gil, like, we've brought up multiple of these examples.
6:41
I kinda want, I, I need to hear from an oddsmaker, you know? Like, what are they, 'cause, because we always talk about why is it moving two and a half points off of news that we kinda expected to hear at some point?
6:50
So are the oddsmakers setting this number assuming Josh Allen's gonna be in there or not be in there? Um, that's a good question. Or, or is it just...
7:03
First of all, we don't know that that announcement is coming until very late, I suppose, right?
7:09
Like, so there's no, there, we, we have no idea, we, we don't know that every team is gonna make their announcement for their quarterback until right before game time or whatever. Sure, sure.
7:16
At some point it will come, right? But I don't know that, it just feels like there's waves of people that don't hear stuff or don't care about stuff until they hear something like that. A- and maybe that's mostly it.
7:29
I just, I just think that's it, and I don't know. Odds make, I don't know. I, it's, preseason is such its own animal.
7:35
We should probably rehash that discussion we had from the other day, which is, again, for those who think that this is a degenerate activity, betting preseason, uh, it is not.
7:45
Because we don't know the motivat- In the e- in the regular season, we are all aware of motivation. Everybody wants to win.
7:52
We are all aware, generally speaking, due to injury reports, of who is going to play and who is not. Uh, and you can count on a depth chart manifesting in a game.
8:00
In preseason, we know not about motivation from team to team, and we do not know b- the depth charts, right? We figure it out as the, it's, it's an information race, right? Yeah.
8:08
It's a Googling contest, or it's a Twitter feed contest. And so, like, tonight is an, is a fascinating example, and Fezzik is gonna come in here and talk about this. Mm. Um, because Fezzik goes oppo on this, right?
8:19
What we were s- and earlier this week is, and we have, so over the last th- 1,100 preseason games in the NFL, and remember, it's three weeks now, uh, second year of this, or second year of three weeks, or I can't even f- remember how many.
8:32
Uh, I, I think we're more than that now. More than that now, yeah. Three or four maybe, I would guess. Yeah. Um, so it used to be four weeks.
8:40
So now that it's three weeks, there's certain things that we as, as bettors can't do anymore.
8:45
It used to be that we'd have this week two trend that we'd bet into, and even on a show like this, which is not a trend show, but that was one that always worked, teams coming off a loss versus teams coming off a win.
8:54
But now it's three, three weeks. Every team sort of plays it differently, so you can't count on, "Oh, we're all playing all the starters in week three of a four-week, uh, preseason set."
9:03
But what we were saying is that at 1,100 preseason games here in this three-week set, um, or not in the three-week set, but the last 1,100, we have 447 of them that have had line moves, preseason games, of more than a point and a half.
9:18
And of those 447, if you bet those pre-steam, you'd be hitting at a ridiculous 65% ATS. But if you bet them post-steam, and we never talk about, we never ever say, "Hey, might as well bet it post-steam." Yeah.
9:32
We never do that in anything else. But you'd still be hitting those at 58%. Now Fezzik probably gonna come in and say- That's insane... "I'm gonna go the other way on this." Yeah.
9:39
Because again, e- even, even us saying it right now, this goes against our DNA, our betting core DNA. But I'm gonna track this. I'm gonna see if the Bengals cover six. Yeah, yep.
9:51
I'm gonna see if the Giants cover three and a half now. I'd, I'd love to know if this works out. Uh, I mean, I was, I, I, I was shocked when j- you and Drew were discussing this the other day- Yeah...
10:01
and that percentage of after the move. I mean, you're talking, I mean, Colts, Ravens tonight, right? Or, or Bengals, Eagles, basically the same thing.
10:09
I mean, you're talking about a near six-point move in a game that has a total in the mid-30s. It's fantastic. Like, that is massive in a football game. It's, it's fantastic.
10:18
Um, yeah, a couple other things that, like, we didn't get to yesterday, I just wanted to bring up quick about, like, preseason, and if you are looking to bet it, and kinda where to start.
10:25
Matt Humans has a great article up at vsin.com. He wrote, uh, last week I believe on this. I, uh, we talked a lot about the coaches.
10:31
I think, uh, just on the basics of how, how you're handicapping these teams, I, I always look at the coaches. Who cares, who doesn't care? 'Cause those are always interesting.
10:39
Even, like, the Sean McVay example we were talking about, go look at what he's done in the preseason. The straight-up results c- tell you, "Okay, he doesn't really care all that much." Doesn't care.
10:46
ATS, though, it's kinda baked into the number. Mm-hmm. 'Cause the oddsmakers know this as well, so he's really more like 500 when it comes to that. Quarterback depth charts matter a lot to me, Gil. Yeah.
10:56
A lot of these teams, I, whoever your second, third stringer is that I know we're gonna end up seeing a lot of, those matter a lot to me.
11:03
So Matt Humans I know put up every single, uh, depth chart for every single team with the quarterbacks. Uh, that is, that is basically where I start when it comes to this, and I know Steve brought this up.
11:14
Keep in mind about that one point, right? About how many of these games c- uh, could land on one, because teams are gonna wanna go for two and not go, you know, you're not gonna go for a tie these games.
11:24
Um, so- I have it, I have it... it's a lot of great stuff. Quarterback depth chart bookmarked team by team, division by division. Yeah, it's great. Um, what are you most looking forward to?
11:31
Are you, are you more looking forward to a Joe Burrow playing a several, several drives? Oh, I know. By the way, he'll play more next week. Or Shedeur Sanders playing, like, half a football game or more?
11:41
Looking more forward to Shedeur Sanders. Me too. Me too, absolutely. Offensive player of the year, National Football League. We will discuss it with Parameters next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
[upbeat music]The Sports Betting Network We've mentioned it before, we'll mention it again.
12:09
Circus Survivor, the quest for $14.2 million, 10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest.
12:18
Episodes air nightly, 9:00 PM Eastern through Saturday on VSIN. Then catch the final five episodes August 12th through the 16th. That's next week, also at 9:00 PM Eastern. Miss an episode? You can watch
12:28
all of them, vsin.com/survivor. At least the first five episodes up there at vsin.com/survivor. We get tweets @beatingthebook, always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. Best listeners in the game.
12:40
I'm not making that up. Numbersguys, "Any futures pick at Cincinnati, ladies or men?" Um, Iga's +450. It's always squirrely, the event before a, a slam, but I will have a little bit on Iga at +450.
12:53
I haven't, I haven't seen any quarters yet, uh, but the only two, uh, ladies in her quarter, Maboko and Anisimova, are the only, uh, scary names, and we saw what happened with Anisimova at Wimbledon.
13:05
Not to say that that will happen again on hard courts, but I like her quarter. Uh, Mikey P, "Follow-up question on that charity tennis tournament.
13:11
When somebody pops an Achilles, are the announcers allowed to talk about it?" Yes, [laughs] they are allowed to talk about it. Are you wishing that on somebody? You should not do that.
13:19
Uh, Tberg_95, "Fezzik doesn't like this theme since a lot of it was caused by Raz." Easy to see that. Oh, [laughs] well, see, see what the... It's the smart listeners. Smart listeners. I, w- I love Raz. I know you do.
13:30
Raz and I are good. I know. Jamie Leyva, "I'm glad Matt Youmans is getting a break from the food list. Bring it back in a few years similar to the McRib. Take it away and the people will want it more.
13:39
Have a fantastic day, gentlemen." Uh, Wiseguys Wager, "It's gonna be the best Thursday with Fezzik and Crack. Thanks for putting together a great show." Kelly Bidlin always, uh, putting together great shows.
13:50
Scotty, Leisure Suit Kobe, uh, is watching the Survivor documentary. He binge-watched five. He might have, he might have OD'd on it. Uh, Steven Brosek, uh, eight, uh, 1870, "Zizou kind of like Zazu?
14:01
So let me introduce Zazu Bidlin and Simba Alexander, BFFs for life." Oh, that's very nice of you. Talking about Zizou Bergers, one of the tennis picks.
14:09
Uh, Chance Copperpot, "Shout out to ProphetX for having the best odds by far." Uh, what does he watch? Oh, Toronto-Colorado. He, he was talking about one of the baseball games happening then.
14:19
But it is a cro- It, it is a, in many, many sporting events. And again, you can ask your own price at a shop like that. Um, and then, uh, let's see here. Uh, and we got others here.
14:31
Oh, G- uh, Gibby, "What are your thoughts on using profit boost on future markets? Example, 10% profit boost would take the Lions to win the Super Bowl from 10 to 1 to 11 to 1." Steve Fezzik is here. Your thoughts?
14:42
Uh, su- sure. Well, if you're using bonus bets, you wanna bet big underdogs just in general, so absolutely. All right, let's go back to your, to your boot camp. So Todd and I were on Friday.
14:52
Bill Ady came by on Saturday, along with Anthony Curtis, Bill Krackenberger, and Jared Smith. Oh, and, and just everyone was a star that spoke, and the audience was a star. So many great questions.
15:04
I anticipate the v- the m- certainly the majority of people who attended are gonna come back. Everyone had such a good time. No one left. We went till Saturday, 6:00 PM. We were only supposed to go till 5:00. Wow.
15:13
Not one person left. Think about that. Lot- Las Vegas Chris showed up as well. I, you know, and so I'm gonna lead with Las Vegas Chris, because he gave the best advice of any of the experts, all right?
15:23
Best EV, and he just emphasized to everyone, especially those who are getting older, get into the doctor, get your, your annual testing, your blood work, get everything done that you're supposed to get done at your age, because you know what?
15:35
It's like, in this day and age, there's no reason not to. So he w- absolutely sh- He, he was a star recommending that. Well beyond sports betting, that's the best advice you can get. 100%.
15:45
Uh, the biggest, the biggest, I don't know if biggest, but o- one of the major killers is the, the slow-rolling, you know, internal thing that ca- that you don't detect living your life but is underneath the surface.
15:58
And so that is... And, and no one knows better than Chris, who is a cancer survivor. Yeah, so that was great that he gave that. You know, Anthony Curtis I thought gave tremendous advice.
16:07
Now, he's a guy that has, he and Frank B.
16:11
have mentored, worked with Mattress Mack, that sometimes is portrayed, he's the guy that, the furniture guy that guarantees if Houston wins, you don't have to pay for your furniture, and then he hedges it in the Vegas markets.
16:22
And people think he's kind of like an older gentleman that's just a square ball that's, you know, putting bets down. Nothing is further from the truth.
16:29
He got multi-millions of dollars of bonuses from the state of Colorado setting up accounts to the point where, like, he lost millions and he won double that in bonuses they gave him because of the huge volume that he played.
16:42
But Anthony, what I loved, he's making millions in bonuses for Mattress Mack.
16:46
Here we, here he is at Boomers, just opens up a new sports book in Vegas, Casino Valley Verde and Ellis Island, $250 sign-up bonus, only a three-time rollover. There's Anthony.
16:56
He's like, "If there's money on the ground to pick up, I'm gonna pick it up. 20- Give me a $20 match play or give me a multi-million dollar bonus. Whatever it is, I want it." Tremendous advice.
17:07
Boomer Sportsbook, brand new in Vegas. Yes. Joe Asher's, uh, book. Yes. He's a big fan of mine. Um, so- [laughs] And me too. [laughs] And it's a 200 fi- $250, you would go and grab it too, right? Of course.
17:21
Have you grabbed it already? No, because I wanna drive my wife down, so we'll do it. Okay. And we'll grab our $500 free bonus. Okay. I think, I think Crack is all about that, too. Yeah, absolutely. Little bit.
17:30
Uh, you mentioned Crackman. Brilliant discussion of parlays. He likes to... When do we use parlays?
17:36
We wanna circumvent some limits, so he'll play overnight, and he doesn't, the Crackman doesn't play two-team parlays in Vegas. They only pay 13 to 5. You get short paid by a little bit versus a mechanical parlay.
17:48
You get short paid huge if you play a four or five-team parlay.
17:51
The four-team are only paying 11 to 1, but the Goldilocks right in the middle, the nice payout is the three-teamer at six to one, where you're not paying any extra vig at all, and it's a good deal, and he'll, he'll wheel a bunch of three-team parlays college basketball season on the overnight.
18:06
So that was great advice, Crack saying, you know, what he liked to do. Okay Um, did we forget somebody? Yeah, Jared Smith Jared Smith, yes. I love this.
18:15
And, and, and Jared, he comes out, he's like, "I am not a professional gambler, you know, so take what I'm telling you, you know, with a grain of salt," but, like, how to attack certain things. Home Run Derby.
18:24
He did a great job with Home Run Derby. Home Run Derby, who... He's like, "Don't focus on the dudes hitting the ball. They're all very competent and great at hitting home runs."
18:34
He says, "Handicap," I mean, obviously you can handicap the hitters, but, "Handicap the pitchers," something a lot of people just ignore because if you have a bad pitcher, anyone who's played Todd Wisniew in the rally game and has to face his third ball that's spinning like a- [laughs]...
18:48
mercury going around the sun- [laughs]... the wizardry of, of, like, having to face that, imagine having a pitcher that can't throw a good meatball down the middle. You're not gonna win the Home Run Derby.
18:56
So he handicapped the pitchers [laughs] and went nine and one this year in the Home Run Derby. So it's, it's, like, think, he's showing you not how to win the Home Run Derby, think outside the box- Yeah...
19:06
and approach things differently than everyone else. All right, that was, uh, Fezzik's boot camp, you, you and Kevin O'Neill with your boot camp. Will you do it again next year? Oh, 100%. Kevin just did a- Yeah...
19:15
tremendous job putting this all together and getting p- and, and staying on schedule, et cetera.
19:20
And, like, I explain, like, how to become a diamond member in 35 minutes on, you know, at, at Caesars with their 10 times points. Yes. Things like that. Now, will you, now, will you, Bet Bash is next week.
19:30
Will you attend Bet Bash? I'll sw- I'll swing by. Yeah. Um, you know, Bet Bash is fantastic. I would say Bet Bash is really just, a lot of it's really fun, too. It's great for networking.
19:42
It's great for dink- for drinking on all of these open bars. It's, like, the time of your life at Circa, so I... Bet Bash is a big party.
19:50
I don't know, you know, we had a really nice dinner and brunch, but we weren't partying, you know, this past week.
19:55
I guess the point for me in all this is, because there's, you know, I don't know if you know this about gambling Twitter, but they know all.
20:00
I, I just think that the point of all this is all of us can learn things, right? We're always learning, and- It was my boot camp. Yeah And I learned a tremendous amount. Yeah. You know?
20:09
So I think anybody who takes the approach, "Oh, I know everything. I don't have to... This, look at this guy," right? It's a little, it's a little ridiculous. Number of- Yeah...
20:17
professional touts that attended my boot camp, zero. Yeah. Number of internet tough guys- [laughs]... that said that my boot camp had little or no value- Yeah... zero. You know what?
20:27
If you think a pizza's l- if, if you have a review and you say a pizza's lousy, at least maybe try a slice of it. Like Dave Portnoy, try a slice of the pizza before you give it a 3.0. All right. Yeah.
20:37
Before you go, and I, you know, again, thank you 'cause you can't be here tomorrow, uh, so it was nice of you to just pop in today.
20:43
You obviously, uh, dispensed advice, and this is why I'm not asking you to dispense any advice that you gave at your, uh, at your boot camp.
20:49
But just as folks head into the first real games, obviously the Hall of Fame Game is behind us, but the first real games of pre-season, give us the m- again, the macro in terms of, it doesn't have to be pre-season.
21:00
May- maybe about the season itself. Have you, have you stepped up your season longs? What g- for those who have never heard you before, give a, give your best bit of NFL advice right now.
21:10
Most of my handicapping is what's called top-down, where I'm following the steam, or I'm following someone else. But I do think you should pick one sport, bottom-up handicapping, where you can set a line on every game.
21:22
So I did this in my boot camp, but I'll give an example of a bet where I have a power rating on every NFL team, and I sh- I went through every one.
21:29
And a complete idiot's guide to a bottom-up NFL, um, um, sports betting method. And what I say is you can start with the season win numbers.
21:37
Now, you need to tweak them based on strength of schedule, but let me give an example. Miami's supposed to win seven and a half games. Indianapolis is supposed to win seven and a half games.
21:46
So based on their season win numbers, those are two equal teams, and they both have a power rating of minus two. It just turns out if you're projected to win one game less than average, that would be a minus two.
21:56
So if I have two teams rated at minus two, if they played on a neutral site, that line should be pick 'em. Well, Indy is hosting Miami, NFL week one, and give them one and a half for home field.
22:06
Indy should be minus one and a half, and Indy was the underdog, plus two and plus one and a half.
22:10
That was a play for my clients, and that was an, that was just a n- the numbers spit out Indy has to be favored in this game, and so I gave out in my seminar Indy, you know, plus one and a half as a best bet.
22:20
Talking about week one of the regular season. Week one, regular season. Regular season. Yes. Just wanna- Bottom-up handicapping... just wanna clarify that.
22:26
Uh, where would you, real quick five second answer, wh- where would people go if they wanna learn more about creating their own power ratings? Do they come to you? Would you, would you talk to them at Fezzik Sports?
22:34
Oh, e- e- e- exactly. Just go Twitter @FezzikSports. Would you talk to them like a gentleman and not be terrible to them? Just call them dumbos? Depends- Oh... how nice they are to me. No more, it's leaving.
22:44
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23:25
Tony Farmer on Twitter, "My girlfriend just asked me what I was doing this morning and I said, 'I'm enjoying salty crack.'" Salty Bill Krackomberger, everybody.
23:34
Oh, this is JasonH11, "So what's Kelly doing on his day off?" Kelly said, "Watching pre-season line moves." Wish I could do that, except I have a show to do here. How you doing, Billy? Okay? Green Bay's minus three now.
23:46
Green Bay's minus three? Look at last break. What are we talk- what did we just talk about? Yeah. Green Bay. Mm-hmm. Come on. There's w- is there a big s- look at this. Green Bay major line move to this break.
23:53
Did I, did we do that? Did I do that? No, [laughs] I'm not, I'm not... Listen, a- a- and of course I didn't do it. No.
23:59
But it just so happens that, um, Kelly sent me an article about Aaron Glen- Aaron Glenn reveals that their starters are gonna play. Yeah.
24:06
Well, I, I, I said now at pick 'em or first half pick 'em, Green Bay first half h- has better starters. I think they're the better team.
24:14
And then all of a sudden now I look up and, and, and the, the major line move on the screen is Green Bay. So just situational there. Um, maybe someone grabbed it on, on, on the break.
24:24
If some- if someone asked you what's the, what's the time of year, 365 days, of a sports betting calendar, what is the time that you love more than any? Pre-season football's right up there, isn't it? Right up there.
24:36
Is that one- Right, it's, it's, it's right up there. If you had to rank, what's better? Uh, I'm part of, I'm part of a lot of these moves, so, um, I, I really like preseason football. Yeah.
24:47
Um, I, I like getting the best of it, but however, you have to watch out getting the best of it because if you're laying one with a sportsbook that the li- you're talking...
24:56
Look at this, this, um, this, this Cincinnati game, the Bengals, they were plus one and a half- Yeah... the other day. Openers dogs. Then they went to seven here. Right here at Circa they were seven.
25:08
You're talking about eight and a half point move. Sportsbooks don't really like that too much when you do that to them. Now, you can be ha- I- i- in Vegas, we're different than the sportsbooks back east.
25:17
In Vegas at least, Circa, The Westgate, uh, Super, uh, the, the, a couple other ones in town, the South Point, they're gonna take it, they're gonna move it and over move the line,
25:28
and they're gonna take the hit from the originator. But, um, if you're playing back east with those books, they just close your account. Basically, they limit you to 10 bucks the next play.
25:39
I think it's just so unfair what they do. Take a bet. I'm not saying take a big bet. Take a $500 bet from the originator or a coup- maybe a couple of their followers.
25:48
Um, you know, it was a big controversy, I haven't got to talk to you about, that happened on our show last week when I tweeted that, uh, segment, that, that first tweet out about that group that contacted me, um, in, it was actually in, in North New Jersey and New York.
26:04
When they contacted me about betting five of them together, how they all got their bets in- Oh, s- same IP address? Yeah, same IP. Yeah. Actually, I found out now four of them were same IP, one wasn't- Yeah...
26:15
on their, on the... But, uh, one account was down a couple hundred thousand and now is d- down 80, so they got 120 back. These are big, big amounts, by the way. So, um, we, I had some pushback there.
26:29
About a dozen people of those 100 comments, so roughly I'm gonna say 15%, even on the show when it was repeated, I was surprised at all the pushback by the, by the people.
26:41
They said, "Oh, well, of course you shouldn't get paid if you and your buddies bet the same game." Like, the, here you have, th- this is like the Mother Teresa- What? What?... of sports betting, these guys are.
26:52
The, the- th- these companies will rip your eyeballs out and take your first kid from you. What was the, what was the- Uh, ruin your family, and you guys wanna stick up for sportsbooks now? Jesus, Mary, and Joseph.
27:01
What was the rationale? I don't get it. They're saying that that's in the terms and conditions. Terms and conditions says you can't bet together.
27:08
Well, that, but that's designed, right, for sportsbooks to, uh, if it's, if it's a s- I don't, I don't know what, what they're... Well, they're more worried about, like, some syndicates doing that, right?
27:20
Or, you know, but, but, like, the notion of friends getting together and that being enforced- Yeah. Yeah... is kinda ridiculous.
27:26
I guess 'cause I said the words, "Three, two, one, go," which really didn't happen in the situation, but I'm used to doing that.
27:32
You know, the great Billy Walters, that's the way it used to work before these apps, before you could bet on the computers. You know, not, I s- I shouldn't say computers, but there was a giant phone room.
27:42
Matter of fact, that guy that I talked about that wanted to come on the phone- Yeah... he, he, he come on the show, he was one of those guys in that room, and that's the way it worked. Three, two, one.
27:50
You know, you have Tradewinds, you have Heritage, you have Chris, you have Pinnacle, and, and everyone had their own book to dial.
27:57
This is when they were dialing bets, and, uh, you, you would dial it, three, two, one, go. Bang, all the books would get hit together. So that's why I probably just said that because I've been around since those things.
28:06
Dinosaur-ish. So, um, but I was surprised by all these people that were pushing back and saying, "Oh, this is terms and conditions. What are you doing? I've been betting for years."
28:17
And even the pros came at me, said, well, they said they're pros, "Oh, you know, I win a lot more money than you think and that's not right that you guys do that." I said, "First of all, it wasn't me.
28:25
I'd be happy to say it was me." Right. Um, it, it, by the way, in the past it has been me, I'm not gonna lie, but this situation, like, I, I, I don't have a single dime in this, so it didn't matter to me financially.
28:36
I just thought that the book in hand that the guy was down, he was, he was down 210,000. He showed me all of his NFLs throughout the year. I said, "Please don't send me no more."
28:45
All of his yearly NFL five, five and 10 and $20,000 bets, lose, lose, lose, lose, lose. Uh, and then, but he's had winning weeks. He won 50, 60,000 one week, but he lost overall 210,000.
28:57
Got back 120, and him and the rest of the guys are not getting paid, and they're getting ghosted by the sportsbook.
29:04
But these people that are st- under, by the way, you know, maybe the answer is this, they're under anonymity on a computer, on, on, on Twitter, and on, on YouTube in the comments.
29:14
They're the ones that are saying, "Well, of course you shouldn't get paid five guys bet together the same side. Are you crazy? Of course you shouldn't get paid. It's in the terms and conditions." I, I, I, I don't get it.
29:27
I don't, I don't, I don't get... Like, it, th- this shouldn't... There are so many things in terms and conditions. You think people read that? Anyone ever see Willy Wonka?
29:36
Remember Willy Wonka when the kids came in, they had to sign the board, and it was bigger, and it got smaller and smaller, and the father said, "Don't you dare sign that, Veruca." "I'm signing it, Daddy."
29:45
And they sign it. [laughs] That's, that's what, they, you know, there's so many terms and conditions, and it's all to protect them.
29:51
Basically, all the sportsbooks' terms and conditions, at any time they could say, "We're not paying you." They could find a reason. Well, right.
29:59
The, the, what, what was lost at what you just said is when they were $210,000 down- Yeah... nothing, nothing happened. No. It's the 120 back that all of a sudden it became an issue. Yes, because him- Yes.
30:09
So this is- But, and, and the other accounts were up money, though. The other accounts just- Yeah... uh, did win some money. Uh, I think one was down, but three of them won, and yeah, they're, they're not paying them.
30:18
Well, right now. We're gonna see. I think these kind of things help them, though. Um, so maybe there's a little bird dog in there for the Cayman. I'm joking. [laughs] But, um, yeah. No, but, but- For the, for the Cayman.
30:28
[laughs] Yeah. No, but I mean, it, I, I was just... That surprised me a lot.
30:32
I'm sure after this show again, when it goes on, if it goes on YouTube, for some reason the VSIN guys are like, I don't know, they only play 15 minutes instead of the whole show. Um, I'm pissed off at that, too.
30:41
I'm gonna tell Bill later. No, they did a great job editing that, though, I thought. No, editing was great. Yeah. But the whole show was not on. Oh, yeah. And people are asking me. Yeah.
30:47
And, and you know what I tell them? Go to the VSIN app. I think you can watch on the VSIN app. You can, yeah. Right? The whole show. Ev- every show on the network- Yeah...
30:52
every hour, you can go back on the VSIN watch app and watch. Yeah, but then they get shaken down for, like, four bucks or something, right? I mean- No, no, no, just go on there. For real? Yeah. All right, good. Yeah.
30:58
Well, there you go. See? Shaken down. [laughs] I'm just kidding. I had a great conversation with Bill Ledeai, I told you that- Yeah... at that Fezzik seminar. Yeah. Where he stayed for the whole thing.
31:07
And I told you, he put you on a pedestal. I'm telling everybody. He loves, he loves, he, he loves, uh... So Gil didn't know. No, I'm joking.
31:14
Gil knows, but yeah, Bill appreciates our segments here, me, Fez, and he appreciates you. Just wanna let you know, just letting you know. Well, thank you. That's very kind of you to say.
31:21
No, it was, it, it, he, he, he- Yeah... stood up and talked about it, and just in general. And that was a better- that, that was a really good seminar. You know, I wasn't scheduled to do any speaking.
31:29
I just was going there. We weren't either, necessarily. Yeah, I was just going there. Yeah. And then he said, "Do you, you know, can you come up and say something?" And I stayed there for like...
31:37
I, I talked, I gave away stuff there and talked about my history more than I've ever talked anywhere. Like, the original Planet Pinnacle, people don't realize- You're talking about the Fezzik boot camp. Yeah. Yeah.
31:48
Pinnacle Sports, I think that's their URL now, or pinnacle.com or Pinnacle Sports. I mean, they're illegal in the United States, so, um, but Pinnacle Sports did not, was not Pinnacle Sports.
31:58
They were called planetpinnacle.com. But they might've been the last place to take internet bets. They were old-school business guys, uh, you know, they were really, really schooled, but some of the best...
32:11
The, the two guys at the top were Stanley Thompson and Jimmy Everett. Jimmy went in the Hall of Fame last year.
32:17
Um, they had, they had stage names of Henry and Monty, and, uh, the- George's was, was the, one of the, the other guy, but George wasn't in Curacao. Those two guys were.
32:25
And Planet Pinnacle was the original sportsbook, but they were old-school phone call guys.
32:30
They were probably the last sportsbook to say, "Oh, okay, I guess we gotta open up this thing on the internet, open up a site, then you wanna..."
32:37
And they, they had a big stage like this with some of the geniuses that Henry trained. Then they had a giant sea of phones with 60, 70 phone clerks at first that were taking the bets.
32:49
And by the way, they lost money the first year. Pinnacle lost money the first year, and yet Stanley said, "Yeah, we're gonna, we're, we're going to 103 on the NFL. I don't care, 103 on both sides."
33:00
They knew that they just were part of some, you know, they, they, they knew that, eh, you just got some- They had some, they had some negative variance... yeah, just part, I was gonna say part of some variance. Yeah.
33:09
Part of some variance, and, uh, they had destroyed it years after. And why? Because they were a betting book. People don't know, a betting book.
33:18
They actually took bets from people and held the line maybe even for a couple seconds, and got on the phones and started betting it everywhere themselves. They knew who the sharpest sports bettors were, and they bet it.
33:29
And when we come back from the break, I had a meeting with one of the guys in town that runs a book. I told him, "I, I get it. You guys sh- are supposed to bet.
33:36
You get sharp bets, you're supposed to have bookmakers you bet with." Bill Krackenberger, @BillKrackman with a K on Twitter. Wise Crack's the name of his podcast with John Orlando.
33:44
Coming back on The Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:36
So let's, let's recap again what happened in that, uh, to the line again in the, the Green Bay game, if we could. Again, so Aaron Glenn comes out. This is a Green Bay-Jets game we're talking about. Right.
34:50
Um, Aaron Glenn comes out and says they're playing the starters. Yes. The Jets aren't. Yes. So we see a brief move in the Jets' direction. Kelly sent me the text on, live on the show.
35:01
Aaron Glenn said that's why the game went from, like, two down to, like, pick minus 15- Yeah... or even minus one, minus 05, meaning it was Green Bay favorite.
35:11
Now, that could have been an easy setup, 'cause it's real easy to set. Listen- Yeah... if this doesn't take, uh, the amazing Kreskin, you can bet Circa- [laughs] Yes...
35:20
and bet maybe a, a, a Chris or a Pinnacle or j- all you bet, bet it, all you have to do is bet Circa. Cir- my account i- is, is, forget it. It's so hot for, it's like morphine.
35:30
So you, you get a, immediate, immediate jolt. I bet, and they're gonna move two to three points. Westgate, two to three points.
35:36
So all I do is give them a bet on the wrong side, which I haven't done, so I'm not saying that. They're gonna move, and then what happens?
35:42
Everyone that's line managers in sportsbooks across the world, not just Vegas, not just the United States, the world, is told, "When Circa moves, you guys move."
35:51
So, um, you can literally manipulate the line, and that is obviously what happened there. Um, even though that Aaron Glenn said that, well, Green Bay is also playing their starters.
36:01
So, and the Green Bay starters are probably a lot better than the Jets starters. So that's why tomorrow, watch what happens tomorrow. This will become a play when the first half line comes up tomorrow.
36:11
Green Bay will become a play, and God forbid you can get a quarter, a first quarter, and God forbid you can get teasers. There's so many opportunities for things now. There really is no teasers that you can get.
36:22
I- if you have a sportsbook that, perfect example, if you have a sportsbook that takes a teaser, I know we're all over the place back and forth here, guys, I apologize, but, like, if you have a sportsbook that, that, that takes teasers, um, there are places, there, there are some places, maybe in far off places, um, that, that you should be, you know, betting, betting certain teasers around the low totals.
36:42
I'm tr- I was trying to look at the teaser. I can't find it. It's gonna be, uh, maybe the Carolina-Cleveland game.
36:46
I think it's r- o- one of the low totals, if you can bet, like, Carolina, uh, on a six-point teaser when, uh, or when the total's 32, or the opposite way, um, on a lot of these, um, I, I usually don't bet teasers to 10, uh, and a half, or if you can bet, like, a six-and-a-half point teaser with, uh, I'd pick the lowest total.
37:04
Uh, Green Bay, uh, okay, Detroit, uh, uh, Atlanta.
37:07
32, boy, if you can see a total that's 32 and you could tease a side to plus 10 and a half, well- Obviously it's, you know, you have a good chance of, of winning that, but the problem becomes now the teaser prices, these sports books have all adjusted.
37:22
I cannot play a teaser in this town, 'cause it's too, the, the, the teaser juice is too high. I think DraftKings is one of the best. Mind you, I have to give DraftKings credit, but I am.
37:30
I think the DraftKings teaser price is very good compared to anywhere- It was last year too... near in Vegas. Yeah.
37:37
Uh, but going back to what Kelly, uh, text me, and then the major line move came because a syndicate group went out on the Green Bay Packers after they heard Kelly. No, I'm just kidding. Yeah, yeah. No, but- Just-...
37:49
just situational, that, that, that's what happened there. And you can see these line moves are crazy, but, um- The other one we talked about earlier.
37:55
Yeah Kelly got the Cincinnati Bengals minus three and a half when the first half line came out. That's six everywhere now, first half. Did he get that line? He did.
38:02
And that's funny because we talked about DraftKings having that earlier when I came on air. DraftKings still had that first half line at minus three and a half, and as we see here, three and a half, I just refreshed.
38:14
How can they ho- how can they have that? You wanna complain about you throwing people out. Still three and a half at DraftKings? Yeah. First half, three and a half. [laughs] By the way- Geez...
38:23
minus six, minus 15 at a couple books here in town. I mean, to be real blunt, that's a middle. That's a... I, I don't middle things, but, you know, it, it's a first half.
38:33
I don't, it's tougher to middle first halves than full games. Um, i- i- now I, normally I, I would, I, on key numbers maybe, but this is three and a half. Four is a live number. Five's dead.
38:43
Six, yeah, maybe it could land on a side. But, um, a- anyway, that, for me- All right... it'd just be a bet. I'm not middling anything there. Same thing with their Colts minus three and a half, minus fift- minus $1.12.
38:56
As you can see, it's minus four, minus 31 or minus four and a half, minus 20. That's just a, that's just a bet it, reset and go to the next one.
39:06
So there's a couple bets, uh, that, that are mathematically, if you have DraftKings, they're definitely worth playing first halves. All right. Uh, you're, you're getting a chance to do your podcast- Yeah...
39:15
live at Bet Bash? Yeah, I've never been to the Bet Bash before. Um, so Spanky asked me, John, and Randy- Randy McDean...
39:22
to, yeah, we're, we're gonna, the three of us are gonna be doing about an hour podcast, uh, live at Bet Bash next Wednesday, um, 1:00 to 2:00 PM. Please check to make sure. I think that's, that's, that's it though.
39:33
It's Wednesday 1:00 to 2:00 PM, uh, live at Bet Bash. So, um, you know, all the telephone tough guys that wanna say things, come on over and we'll talk to you in person.
39:43
No, I'm just saying, like, you know, these people go after us for everything. I, I'm gonna be at... So well, they wanna be our friend. They sort of are your enemy, Bill. In real life they wanna be your friend.
39:49
They really do. They really do. Yeah. You know, uh, John gave me a, I mean, someone gave me a good line the other day [laughs] and I said, "You know what? That, that's a really, that's a really good line." Maybe you did.
39:59
No. [laughs] What? What? Are you the one who gave me this, "They're rotting from the inside out with hatred"? No. No? [laughs] That wasn't me. No. What- Someone gave me that line...
40:05
what I would say to you is, is nobody who hates on you is having better life than you are. I have a pretty good life. I'm not gonna lie to you. I know. No, not, not that I'm, I'm extravagant with anything.
40:14
I mean- Yeah... you know, I, I, I don't, I'm not an extravagant guy. Um, you know, uh, there's more people in this space though, this is another, another subject I have.
40:25
I know I talked like the whole s- the whole frigging half hour here. It's eight. I'm- I'm sorry... Kelly and I are taking the day off, Bill. No, I am sorry. Go ahead. Yeah. [laughs] Um, there, there, there are so many...
40:34
I, why would, why did I watch it? Well, it was on in the background. There was a network on in the background. I'm not gonna name it. I'm not gonna throw any individual under the bus. It's a blanket statement.
40:42
There are more people though in the space that are just so happy the NFL is back, but they have nothing constructive to... They're like, they're like chicken chow meiners.
40:52
They're like, they go to a Chinese restaurant and they order, "Ah, guy, uh, waiter, give me the chicken chow mein," 'cause that's just, they're chicken chow meiners. Ugh.
40:59
They just wanna talk about, you know, that's an old Philly term I heard. [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] I forgot about it for a decade. Yeah. I said, "You know what? That's what they are though.
41:05
They're just, "Ah, uh, okay," the waiter's, "Oh, chicken chow mein." Mm. That's what they, they're just, "Oh yeah, let's, we're, we're, we're based out of New York.
41:13
Oh, the Jets and Giants, the line is this, and I like the Jets and I like the Giants." Like, there's so much garbage out there.
41:21
I have to tell you right now, I feel listening to your show, when I'm not even on, is, is definitely worth any price, and, and, you know, you can listen for free.
41:30
And, um, a- I'm just, just that's something I wanted to say about value of listening to...
41:36
If I wanna listen to shows to be entertained, um, I'll listen to, there's a couple great shows on VSAN Network that I'll listen just to be entertained, get a couple laughs, giggle, and have some fun.
41:47
You know, but it's fun, it's, it's entertaining, and that's, that's work a lot.
41:50
But if I wanna listen to something to have real information about things that are going to, uh, help you in life, little nuggets, little wisdom things in life, you and your guests, not even using me, um, like s- I think Steve blows me away.
42:06
I, you know, he c- how did I get on an hour today and he only got on a half hour? I don't understand, but that's, that's really, uh, humbling. Um, but yeah, so anyway. I just wanted- Well-... to let you know that.
42:15
I wrote that down. Let me ask you a question about this, the Vegas specifically and 17% down in terms of July to July. No one, you know, in other words, the, the vacancy here is up.
42:30
A- and the reason again, price gouging, uh, there's all kinds of reasons, right? People just don't wanna be in an inferno for getting price gouged- Yeah... in the middle of the summertime.
42:39
Um, there's other factors though as well, right? Obviously with sports betting, everybody's doing all their apps and maybe s- all these years into it, the notion of having, coming to Vegas and making bets in person.
42:50
Uh, the other big one that was thrown out the other day is that the younger generations don't drink as much as older generations. Interesting. Which I think is a broader problem for Vegas- Wow...
43:00
moving forward in the future, right? That they would have to sort of reconsider things if that is in fact a generational trend. And my question to you is, do you think we will see this bleed into football season? No.
43:13
Or is football season the panacea, where it's football season, we're back to normal? Here's the reason why I say no,
43:18
because, uh, I jumped on that train very little in the beginning about, you know, the year over year because of the resort fees, because of parking prices. Who has to...
43:27
My father, he would not go to a casino if he had to pay to park. Right. He wouldn't go. He's just not going. He's going to a local joint.
43:33
So, um, but that m- you see these numbers down, you see the, uh, like you said, I didn't hear 17, I heard 11 or 12, but it's all right, 17%. Yet the gambling numbers weren't down.
43:44
The gaming revenue was not down for July. They still, they still made money on baseball. Still made money betting. Yeah. The, the gaming numbers, some of them were higher than ever.
43:52
I'm talking about even the casinos, craps, blackjacks, machines, those numbers were still high. So I see that and I say to myself, "The true hardcore gamblers are still here."
44:01
Maybe some of the non-gaming revenue people left, um, over the summer for many reasons. Um, there, there's so many different reasons, even political reasons or whatever.
44:11
So, but I think they're coming back for football, Gil. I think football's back. I think these contests are gonna be, you know, you, you got between here and Westgate, you have some sick contests this year.
44:21
I think they're all gonna be back. They're all gonna be overflowed. I think they're gonna, I think that this, uh, this survivor, it, it, it may get like, who knows, m- more, a lot more than the minimum.
44:32
And, uh, I, I think it's great. I think it's great for the town. Uh, in, in general, I think, I think we're okay as a town.
44:37
Yeah, there's gonna be no collection buckets from Bill Krackomberg around the strip trying to help the casinos. That, that, that drinking point generally- Interesting... generationally is an interesting one. Interesting.
44:45
Uh, crack on contests, how many he's doing entry-wise, and more coming up. Numbers game. [upbeat music]
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