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Dec 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 10, 2024
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0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game, with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
Welcome in, everybody, Tuesday morning edition of On Numbers Game, with Kelly Bidlin holding it down in downtown Las Vegas at our Circa Sportsbook studios. I'm Ben Wilson. Kelly, great to be back with you, sir.
0:45
Big show for us today. And as we, we get rocking for the NBA Cup, it is back today. I know you are very extra fired up for the quarterfinals getting underway tonight, sir. That's right, I'm excited, NBA Cup.
0:55
Gil's not here. This gets to be like the, you know, when you get, like, Family Guy, there's, like, the meg-episodes of Family Guy they always make fun of? This is like the Kelly episode of a Numbers Game. NBA Cup, baby.
1:05
Let's get way too excited for it. I, I am pumped. I'm pumped, and Ben, I've got bets on both games, which I really didn't think I was gonna have, uh, probably- Interesting... about 24 hours ago. Yeah. Interesting.
1:15
I thought you would've said, like, the Marge Simpson episode, but okay. [laughs] So that's all right, just based on last night. We have a loaded guest list as well.
1:21
Drew Dincic going to kick things off in 15 minutes from NBC Sports talking not only the NBA Cup, but also a little Week 15 of the NFL. It is a Champions League soccer day today. Let's go.
1:32
So we'll get Paul Carin from True Media Sports at 10:45 Eastern as well, after we talk some NBA Cup individually, get Kelly's plays, and then Will Hill, our longtime VSiN contributor, joins us top of our 11:00 AM Eastern hour, uh, to talk all things, uh, NBA.
1:46
We'll have NFL, maybe some college basketball with, and college football with Will, and then Nick Whelan on the NBA from SiriusXM at 11:30 Eastern.
1:53
We start, though, with a look back to what happened last [laughs] night, Kelly. And, uh, if, if your name, uh, you know, essentially, [smacks lips] uh, is not Amon-Ra or Rкие, you're, you're feeling pretty good today.
2:04
But unfortunately for Mr. Rкие, shades of Leon Lett last night.
2:08
Uh, what, 31 years and I guess a, a couple of, uh, uh, you know, like, what, like, 500 maybe feet, uh, to, to the left of where the old Texas Stadium used to be. Yeah.
2:17
[laughs] Um, a s- similar situation as he, uh, he tries to field a blocked punt.
2:22
It allows Cincinnati to get the ball, and for us, you know, from the betting angle, this is a second straight week as Cincinnati scores a late Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase 40-yard touchdown.
2:31
Second straight week where if you're on the underdog in Monday Night Football, you just get your, your heart ripped out in as gruesome and gory fashion as humanly possible.
2:39
Uh, Bengals, even though they dominated the box score, Kelly, never the right side as far as actually covering the spread.
2:45
Uh, and not only do they get the ball back late when Dallas should have had it in Brandon Aubrey field goal range in a 20 to 20 game, sending the three survivor entrants who were on Cincinnati into peril and panic.
2:58
Instead, the Bengals move down, and not only do they get a game-winning field goal, but they, not, they do better than that. They get the covering touchdown as it lands 27-20.
3:06
Uh, and y- you just feel for the dog bettors who, as we discussed yesterday, a lot of folks on Dallas. That was a big, big move, got all the way down to four and a half at close, down from the six and a half number.
3:16
Uh, and it's, it's really been, I- wouldn't you say for- Wow... underdog bettors, just the, the season in a nutshell, right? So many- Mm-hmm... favorites that find ways to win and cover. Yeah, absolutely.
3:25
I, I, I didn't even see that's where it closed. It all, it got all the way down to four and a half? Yeah. Wow, that is wild. Yeah, y- yeah, I know you and I were both talking, both leaning Dallas.
3:33
There's, uh, we, we always talk about the weird feelings in betting you get sometimes.
3:37
Is, i- i- isn't that a, uh, a good one, Ben, when you were leaning really close to one side [laughs] and then you get something fluky like that that happens at the end of the game?
3:44
You're like, "Thank God I wasn't involved in that one." Um, yeah, brutal beat [laughs] if you were on Dallas. I, uh, Dallas, it, I guess I'll say the over too bet.
3:53
I mean, I don't know about you, but after you're watching that first half play out and you, y- you kinda start, immediately start thinking a lot of what we talked about yesterday, how is either one of these defenses slowing down the other?
4:04
Uh, both offenses pretty much doing whatever they want. Rico Dowdle e- ends up finishing with 131 yards on the ground. The Cowboys' running game, um, looking pretty good.
4:14
And, uh, you know, a, a, a game of consequence, I guess, for both sides that, uh, ends up, uh, e- ends up ending in a very, very wacky way.
4:23
I, I, you know, I thought it, it was a little bit of ball don't lie situation, right? I thought Burrow with that missed face mask call, uh, was pretty egregious.
4:30
And then [laughs] you know, just a short while later, blocked punt that gets [laughs] recovered by the punt team, which, Ben, I don't know if I've ever seen in my life, to be honest.
4:40
You know, and it's crazy you bring that up, Kelly, because I thought the same thing. I'm like, I, I feel like this doesn't happen.
4:45
I mean, everybody knows the, the Leon Lett play, even if you're not old enough to remember, just because of how, uh, infamous it became, which was on a blocked field goal where there was nobody around the ball.
4:54
And then I'm thinking, I, you know, there, there has to be another situation, and I, I s- I see this from a guy who, who's been on with us at VSiN in the past, uh, Scott Rachel at Rachel Radio.
5:03
Literally the exact same thing happened in a Cowboy game with the exact [laughs] same coaching staff, including the same special teams coach- [laughs]... in 2021. And I'm watching the video.
5:12
It was at Broncos Cowboy game, uh, when, when Denver, I remember Denver went into Dallas as nine-and-a-half-point dogs and just blew out the six-and-one Cowboys.
5:20
That was their only home loss of the regular season, I believe, that year. And the same exact thing happened. So for s- it w- this is just a weird Cowboy thing, I guess, but- Yeah...
5:29
uh, they're the ones who, who blow it, and y- you can't help now but wonder.
5:32
I mean, did you see the, the Micah Parsons, uh, interview sh- interview shot they, they, uh, aired on SportsCenter last night, where he was literally in tears talking about his, his f- his, uh, his teammate, his linebacker, DeMarvion Overshown, who suffered a bad injury, who had been this s- unbelievable bright spot- Mm-hmm...
5:46
emerging as a second-year player on the Dallas defense.
5:49
You know, Cowboys, as much as we viewed them as their season being basically over, you know, they still were technically in it, and this really puts a nail in the coffin on their playoff hopes.
5:58
So you just have to wonder on the short week with an emotional loss like that, how do they get themselves up off the mat now going to Carolina, who is set to likely be favored here for the first time- In 34 games.
6:10
It's, it's fascinating for the handicap this week. Oh, good, we actually got an exact number on those games. Thanks. I was trying to add that up yesterday during the show, uh, [laughs] when last time- I know...
6:17
they had been a favorite. Good job. No, I'm, I'm with you. I mean, we talked about it yesterday when we were going over these games. I, I, I think Carolina's the only way you could look.
6:25
We wanted to see how this played out last night. Now that you've got Dallas out of things, I, yeah, it's still Carolina's the only way I could look, Ben, but I'm not making that bet.
6:35
I wouldn't make that bet with your money. I'm not making it with my money. Panthers 5 and 0 against the spread since November first. The, the 33 game streak from, from Evan, uh, Evan Abrams, Evan H.
6:44
Abrams, or you, or you follow him. Longest streak without being favored since the Browns from 2015 to 2018 had 37 straight games as an underdog.
6:52
And, and i- and ironically, as much as you're saying, "Oh, why would Carolina be favored?"
6:56
You know, the way Bryce Young is playing, Carolina may, probably has the better quarterback in, in the game when you compare it to Cooper Rush, who, uh, you know, like, it's not like you expect a ton from Rush as a backup.
7:05
But, uh, he has struggled, uh, mightily just with completing throws that are out there in the open for him. And this game is now touch two. It is touch two at Circa behind you- Yeah... Kelly, and a couple other books.
7:15
One and a half, they're most of the market. Yeah, one, yeah, one and a half, twos. Yeah, so really not much movement from what we've seen, uh, uh, the other day. And my apologies to the Cowboys.
7:24
Uh, sorry, I forgot basically everybody in the NFC is still alive, uh, technically for a playoff spot. So, yeah. Yeah. Yes. They're, they're still out there. Technically. Technically. [laughs] Technically. Yeah.
7:32
[laughs] It's got a lot of work to do. Technically so. Well, like, and, and Cincinnati, I mean, same way. We were joking yesterday. Oh, the, the Panthers are technically still alive, so they're, they're- Uh, yeah...
7:39
a big game this weekend. Look, Car- I mean, Car- people making fun of all the, the folks who were on the Carolina over four and a half wins, like, that is not dead by any means.
7:48
[laughs] I mean, there's a, there's a legit path there. Three, three wins so far for Carolina. They, they could pick off a couple more before- Yeah... the season is over. As far as the Bengals- And, and, and whoa...
7:56
uh, yeah... pump the brakes real quick. As wa- as, as well as we c- we've been talking about how they're playing, uh, they still ain't picking up Ws is the problem.
8:02
They might be covering spreads, but they're not picking up Ws a lot here. [laughs] I d- base- I'm not very good at math, but if they do cover the spread, they will win this week. [laughs] There you go.
8:09
That's at least the thing for Carolina. There you go. They would need, they would need one more some way, somehow to get over that win total.
8:15
And for Cincinnati, the, the joke has been, all right, y- you watch CBS, which you would think would be more pro Bengals chances since that is the AFC network.
8:22
They don't even have Cincinnati in their, at least this past week, they did not have Cincinnati in their Still In the Hunt graphic, which they're usually very, uh [laughs] they're very liberal about the teams they include, Kelly.
8:32
Meanwhile, Fox did have Cincinnati in the, in the Hunt graphic. So Cincinnati's technically in.
8:36
They went from 14 and a l- 14 to 1 down to 11 to 1 after last night, and a lot of it is schedule based since they get, you know, four teams in the AFC.
8:45
It's, uh, Tennessee, and that, that line reopened Cincinnati either four and a half or five on the road next week. You'll get Cleveland at home.
8:52
Th- uh, then you get Pittsburgh i- late in the season in a, in a p- in a potential spot, and you wonder, all right, how much will Pittsburgh be playing for? That's week, uh, 18 there.
9:01
And then you also have a, a game at home against Denver. But it's always a thing. You have to look at, at teams on the other side of that.
9:07
So Cincy's three back of the two team, of the three teams tied at eight and five for the three wildcard spots with four weeks to go. You know, Denver's probably the one team who would be most likely to fall out of that.
9:18
But as, as you made a bet yesterday, we didn't really have a chance to get to it on the openers. You know, Denver out of the bye has a, a really good opportunity with, with a game at home against Indianapolis.
9:28
A really fascinating matchup since both teams are out of the bye. Indy's certainly desperate- Mm-hmm... as well at six and seven.
9:33
Uh, but if Denver at least takes care of business there, uh, now you'd look at the path for Cincy and, you know, even if they are to win out, I, I don't know that an, an 11 to 1 bet really makes all that much sense, uh, because of, because of what is at play with the other teams they're trying to chase.
9:48
Yeah, I, I would need much longer odds than that. I mean, the d- even the Dolphins won game better than them, right? Uh, it's still technically in that mix as well.
9:56
I think I'd like their chances even better than Cincinnati's, um, to make it. And, and yeah, I, I mean, massive game this weekend. You're right, I did bet the Broncos, uh, on the opener.
10:05
The line's come down, uh, pretty significantly. I know we got Drew Dincic coming up next. I, I believe he's on the other side, but we'll find out. Um, I think his numbers ha- had the, this spread pretty far off.
10:15
I just think Denver coming off the bye, Sean Peyton experienced head coach there, they know what's in front of them. They know they, uh, control their own des- destiny here, getting into the playoffs.
10:25
Colts are one of the teams you've gotta hold back. And man, Anthony Richardson has been playing a little bit better. This Colts team has looked a little bit better.
10:33
But Ma- Ben, they've, they've been one of the toughest teams for me to handicap all season long.
10:37
It, it, it feels like they, they wanna lean on that running game more, but then you still, you, you, you always see these wild incompletions from Anthony Richardson.
10:45
Um, I do think he's playing a little bit better ball, but I think a- asking them to go into Denver, pick up this win, uh, straight up i- is a pre- is a pretty tough ask. So yeah, I'm, uh, I am on Denver this week.
10:56
And like you said, Cincinnati, a lot of things are gonna have, have to go their way for them to, uh, end up making it. Yeah, I certainly, based on just b- you know, basic numbers, would have leaned the Denver way.
11:05
I th- assumed that number would be pushing near a touchdown based on the Denver performances, and certainly it is way, way lower than that. We're down to three and a half at a couple shops. Yeah.
11:14
Uh, four is most of the market.
11:15
Th- I just am always concerned when you have a team playing so well, or even if they aren't playing well, getting lots of breaks like Denver, uh, [laughs] having to go back to the last Monday night game.
11:23
I don't like betting on those teams coming out of their bye week when you have all that positive rhythm, positive momentum disrupted naturally. Mm-hmm.
11:30
Whereas the bye did come at a much better time for Indianapolis, a chance to reset for them. Matchup to watch there, though.
11:35
I mean, it's, it's an Indianapolis O line that has been good creating holes on the ground for Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, top six in the league. Denver, top five run defense.
11:44
That's what, what this comes down to, at least for, for me, Kelly- Yes... as part of the handicap, and that's the matchup I, I'm not sure we know a, have a definitive answer to yet, because that is strength on strength.
11:54
And, uh, maybe Drew Dincic will have some thoughts on that on the other side. We're getting started, Tuesday edition of The Numbers Game. Drew Dincic will join us up next from NBC Sports and Bet the Edge podcast.
12:03
Talking NFL Week 15, as well as the NBA Cup when we come back right here on The Numbers Game.
12:22
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12:52
Tuesday edition of a numbers game. A lot of NFL talk so far about the transition, not only into some NFL, but some NBA with our guy Drew Dincic as we go out to our progressive guest line.
13:00
I need, Kelly, I need to ask Drew a question here because you've been talking about how when we're doing shows remote, you like to just stare into my soul, and I, I, I can, I can d- I can definitely feel it on my side of the camera.
13:10
Drew, I n- Drew, when, when you're doing spots, can you feel Kelly's, you know, his intent gaze staring you right, right in, right deep into the heart over there? I'll go a different direction.
13:18
It, it brings me a little bit of peace, you know? Oh. It brings me a s- it centers me. It brings me some calm- [laughs]... uh, to know that, uh, that, you know, that I need to be on my best behavior, you know? Oh, wow.
13:29
Th- I- That, that's the look that I give She can, she can say that Yeah, sure. [laughs] I more feel like caffeine osmosis coming, coming my direction. But I, you know, to each his own, e- each interpretation.
13:38
Drew Dincic from NBC Sports Bet The Edge podcast. So Kelly was just, was teeing it up. He, he believes that for week 15 of the NFL, Drew, uh, you are gonna be oppo of him looking at Indianapolis.
13:48
Were you part of this, this wave of Colt money that hit the market yesterday as we're down to three and a half, uh, in some shops? Yeah, I agree with this.
13:55
Uh, and I think the Colts are very live, not just to win this game, but to s- storm, uh, into the seven seed right now.
14:01
I think 10 wins gets you the seven seed in the AFC, and, uh, the, right now at least, the Colts have the tiebreaker over the Steelers, albeit it is very unlikely that comes into play.
14:11
Um, but a head-to-head win against the Broncos b- basically flips, uh, probability, uh, for playoffs, uh, between those two teams. Right now I have it 60/40 Broncos.
14:21
A win by the Colts would actually make it 70/30 Colts for me. So, um, got a lot of ways to attack this obviously.
14:26
You know, the money line price for the Colts in this game's not that different than the make the playoff price for the Colts. Um, if the Colts lose, lose this game, I don't think there's really a way in for them.
14:35
Um, but, uh, you know, they're, they're playing, um, they're playing their best football right now. Uh, they're coming off of a by where their, um, wide receivers are getting healthy.
14:46
I'm expecting Josh Downs to be a full go. Michael Pittman and, uh, Alec, Alec Pierce needed, uh, uh, you know, definitely needed the break, uh, to get right 'cause those guys were playing through injuries.
14:56
The offensive line needed the break to get better, uh, and play through injuries.
15:00
And then in general, um, I think the, uh, defense, while not really willing to go to war with this defense often, um, they do play pretty squarely into exactly what Bo Nix has not shown us he has any ability to solve.
15:17
When you go over the tape against the, uh, the Browns, obviously the Broncos scored a billion points in that one. 14 of which were obviously generated by defensive touchdowns.
15:25
Um, but when you split out, uh, Brown's coverage between, uh, man coverage and zone coverage, Nix was useless against man, and he was very effective against zone.
15:35
And Gus Bradley, I think is, in general, uh, willing to tack into z- uh, man pretty aggressively, which I think should, uh, keep this Broncos team in a bit of check.
15:44
Uh, to make things a little bit more challenging for the Broncos, it was very obvious in that Browns game how much they miss Riley Moss.
15:50
I'm not expecting Riley Moss available in the secondary here, so there's gonna be a lot of places to pick at, uh, if you are S- Shane Steichen and you have, uh, an elite set of weapons who can get open downfield.
16:00
So, uh, yeah, I think Colts cover this number. I think Colts win, and, uh, if I'm the Broncos, uh, I'm, I'm very nervous about what my path to the playoffs look like if I lose this game. So Dr- Drew and Kelly Oppo here.
16:11
Drew Dincic joining us here on a numbers game at Whale underscore Capper, by the way, if you don't follow Drew already.
16:16
Are-- what do you make, too, of the, we've had a number of moves here coming overnight from Monday now into Tuesday. Lot of, uh, Buffalo money pouring into the market off the- Oof...
16:24
the huge offensive output against Detroit. Is this more because we've seen Buffalo?
16:28
They've just looked like a different team when they're indoors and what they can, what they can really unlock with the Josh Allen-led offense.
16:34
What do you make of that specific matchup now as we see the Lions get, here getting bet against, down to, uh, as low as one and a half? Do you make Buffalo and Detroit a pick 'em on a neutral field? Uh, I do.
16:44
And I think the sentiment is probably more related to speculation about the defensive injuries for the Lions. Um, the spine of the defense, the interior of the D line, uh, everyone is hurt, and they all matter.
16:59
[laughs] And I think, uh, the fact that your D line now, uh, which did play up in that, uh, first half against the Packers before the injuries really set in, um, you know, what- if you, if you deplete that unit, now, now you're not stopping the run on top of, uh, you know, having relatively little hope of succeeding in the red zone as far as defense goes.
17:19
So the-- I think actually weirdly, um, this creates a paradigm where Detroit, if they want to win this game, isn't just you have to score every time you have the ball, which they can do.
17:32
It's you have to score every time you have the ball, and you have to create relatively long drives where you are matriculating over the balance of 10 minutes of, uh, time of possession.
17:42
And then you just need to be able to create one, maybe two turnovers of Josh Allen to win this game. And that's a pretty fragile state, uh, especially if you are a favorite.
17:52
And so I completely understand why there is Bills money coming in.
17:55
Um, I kind of actually lean under 40-- 54 and a half right now, uh, just because I do think there will be a premium from both of these teams to, uh, try to lean into the run and have more sustained drives and protect their defense a bit.
18:10
Uh, in order to get to 55 points, you're gonna need, you know, basically superlative red zone success from both of these teams combined with some explosive plays.
18:18
And I'm not really sure either of these teams is, you know, is, is served by, uh, you know, kind of attacking explosively.
18:26
So this, uh, to me looks like it could be a surprise under, even if there is just ab- absurd offensive efficiency in this game.
18:34
Um, and I haven't played it yet, but, uh, I, I definitely understand why there's- Love for the Bills Right. Move of three and a half points to the over, Drew, what you're talking about.
18:42
You are paying a premium if you wanna go over now at 55 in the Bills-Lions game. We'll get to NBA Cup in a second. Any other NFL early you've bet here for week 15? Um, I'm kind of surprised that there's Steelers money.
18:56
This is the one move in the market that I really just didn't have, didn't see coming, honestly. Um, Eagles at four looks good to me. Uh, I like the Seahawks at plus three.
19:05
I kind of am, again, a little bit blown away that we're getting a, a somewhat reasonably priced three on Seattle at home here, considering that Seattle is, um, you know, getting consistently better week by week.
19:18
Their defense is now very clearly top seven, uh, as far as quality of play and, and just ability to, uh, limit opponents.
19:25
And I, you know, the Seahawks offense, it is Jekyll and Hyde depending on how aggressive the pass rush they are is, they are facing, and the Packers have not shown an ability to consistently generate pressure.
19:36
So, uh, I'm not worried at all about the Seahawks going score for score and, and getting the win against the Packers here. So that, that number looks, uh, quite wrong to me.
19:44
And, uh, and then, you know, everything else that I'm showing edges on right now are, are pretty, uh,
19:50
uh, pretty suspect games where motivations are in question and jobs are, you know, on the line, and I'm not 100% sure I have the, the, uh, the intestinal fortitude to play some of these terrible dogs. Yeah.
20:01
[laughs] All right, Drew, NBA Cup. Let's get to the good stuff. Ooh. Starting tonight, quarter finals, Magic at Bucks. Uh, the early game Mavericks at Thunder late.
20:11
Uh, I've got Wisconsinite Ben Wilson I'm doing the show with, Wisconsinite Nick- Mm-hmm... Whalen coming on later, so I know there's gonna be a little built-in bias. I like the Bucks, though, tonight.
20:20
Talk me out of it, Drew. You're the only... I- you're the voice of reason when it comes against the Bucks.
20:25
Uh, well, I was usually I'm the voice of reason, saying there's value on the Magic, and I do not feel that way right now. [laughs] No way, no how.
20:32
Um, this Magic team in the absence of Franz Wagner is gonna look quite different, uh, especially against league competition playing for something. So, um, I'm with you 100% here.
20:42
I could see this Bucks, uh, this Bucks team boat racing the Magic in this spot, and, uh, it's really disappointing and just, you know, I, I, I was having a great Saturday.
20:52
It was, you know, Christmas parade here in Long Beach. [laughs] 70, 70 degrees. I, you know, e- everything's going my way. Yeah. And then, uh, yeah, then this hits the wire. Then that alert hit. Then that alert hit.
21:01
Yeah, then this hits the wire. Franz Wagner, torn oblique. Um, I was, uh, I was using, I was spending that, uh, MIP money on Christmas presents, Kelly. Um, I don't know. I don't know.
21:11
We're gonna have to, uh, gonna have to defer some credits, cards today. No, I'm just kidding. [laughs] Um, but, uh, it, uh, that was, uh, that was really, really a bummer. Yeah.
21:18
And it's gonna take the Magic a little bit of time.
21:19
'Cause it, it hurts their defense really for this match-up a lot, and I think the Bucks are gonna basically be able to pick their number, and, uh, I think the Bucks, uh, probably go into the finals.
21:29
Well, that's not gonna help me out, Ben. This might be a rather large wager for me tonight. Uh, Bucks.
21:33
[laughs] Anything else in the late game for you, and anything tomorrow, uh, with the Hawks-Knicks, Warriors at Rockets? Yep. I played the Mavericks at plus five.
21:41
Um, I w- thought it was gonna go, I thought it was gonna move more. Um, the fact that you can get four and a half still I think is a really good bet.
21:48
Um, this number should be more like three in my opinion, and the Mavericks are sort of the clear, clear, clear and obvious buy low in basically every way right now. Mm-hmm.
21:57
Um, I think the Mavericks are gonna get a top two seed in the West. They could run down the Thunder for all I could tell you.
22:02
Um, but they look now like they're playing like at the high quality team we saw at the end of last year's regular season, which was the second best in basketball.
22:09
Um, they're gonna absolutely put pressure on this Thunder team. They can win. Um, and if I had to in the blind pick, uh, you know, with our NBA Cup final, I would take Bucks, Mavericks right now.
22:19
Drew Dincic with us here on The Numbers Game. Follow us at, h- follow him @will_capper from the Deep Dive podcast and, uh, NBC Sports.
22:25
That would be, would, that would be your, your final here if we're, we're putting you on the spot, Bucks, Mavs NBA Cup? Yeah, I think the Knicks cover and win against the Hawks, but that's a pretty weak opinion.
22:36
That number looks right to me. Uh, and I think the, uh, the Rockets can eke out a win against the Warriors.
22:41
Um, and, uh, I don't really f- favor either the Knicks or the Rockets in, uh, their potential semifinal match-ups, but, uh, I'll tell you what, Bucks-Knicks total can't get, can't be high enough. Uh, yeah.
22:51
Seriously, that'll be, uh, you, you'd figure. I'd put in the, in the 240s for that one there. Drew, as always, man, appreciate the time. Thanks for joining us. Hey, best of luck, guys.
22:59
And we'll get into Kelly's NBA Cup best bets. I'm glad, you know, the Wisconsin influence.
23:03
It's, you know, it doesn't impact our betting, Kelly, but, you know, y- you got Drew to maybe push you over the edge, so we'll talk NBA Cup- Yeah... when we return right here on The Numbers Game.
23:10
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is The Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:25
Hour number two of The Numbers Game starts right now with Kelly Bismth holding down the fort at our Circus Sportsbook Studios in downtown Las Vegas. I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil next couple of days.
23:35
Lot for us to talk about here in the second hour of the show. We'll get to some of our college football playoff props. We have some win totals for individual teams out. We'll do that in 15 minutes.
23:44
Nick Whalen from SiriusXM NBA and Rotowire joins us at the bottom of the hour to talk NBA Cup tonight, little NFL week 15.
23:52
And we, Kelly was, uh, was just fascinated by Paul and I's, uh, you, you were, what, what, what, uh, phrases did I use? Fixture congestion? Fixture. Uh- Once you dropped fixture congestion near the top, I was out of it.
24:03
I was like, "I don't know what's going on anymore." [laughs] You're done. That took me, like, 90 seconds to even figure out.
24:07
I'm like, "I think that probably means it's, like, a Wednes- like, an NBA Wednesday for me, where there's a lot of games just, like, going on at the same time." Am I right- Yeah... or no? I don't even know.
24:16
Well- Uh, it, it just means you're playing a crap ton of games in a short amount of time, so. Oh, so it's like, it's like one of these two-week stretches they have- Yeah...
24:23
where they've gotta play, like, in three different leagues. Okay. Now I got it figured out.
24:26
'Cause, like, so the traditional schedule is you play one match every week, but now we've added all, you know, you've got these, these league cups, and you've got the Champions League and Europa League and- The Champions League goes all year now, so yeah.
24:37
Yeah, it, it basic- [laughs] Anyway, uh, a guy, you talk about fixture congestion, a guy who is on, uh, it's, it's a show congestion. He's on a lot of shows 'cause he's awesome.
24:44
He's Will Hill, joins us on our Progressive Guest Line. Right now, Will, our, our, our very long time BS& contributor, Shoulda Bet More podcast as well, uh, contributed to The Bear Bets podcast.
24:53
How you like that transition, Will? I'm, I'm, you know, I always try to be professional when I'm around you, so good to see you, buddy.
24:59
Uh, it was smooth, it was impressive, but I expect nothing less at this point from you. Yeah. Okay. I, no, I, I'm just trying to suck up to Will. I'm gonna...
25:05
I'll, I'll be, apparently I'm on the Megapod this week, Will, so thank you for, uh, for... thank you for inviting me. It's, uh... even though it's not your podcast, but I, I appreciate you. Of course. Of course.
25:13
[laughs] I'm the share- new chief in town this week. New ch- new chief in town. Uh, Will, Will Hill get, getting me on the Megapod, I appreciate it.
25:19
Well, we, we haven't really talked MLB at all because when this stuff breaks on an NFL Sunday and when we come into the Monday, it's really all NFL recap.
25:27
But the, the huge news with the ripple effects around baseball, Will, the Juan Soto signing, who chooses, apparently chooses the Mets over the Yankees, and these reports come out that, you know, Yankees at the 12th hour, they, they had a ch- they, you know, it was a 16-year offer originally and, and the, the agencies from Scott Boras' side went back, said, "Hey, can you just, like, take off the final year, keep the price the same?"
25:48
And they were like, "Too rich for our blood," even though at that point you're talking a $760 million contract.
25:53
Uh, at least for you now in, in looking at the Mets who've shorted, uh, to, s- to, uh, below the Yankees now, they're, they're shorter than the Yankees to win the World Series next year, uh, how, how real do you see this being now for a Mets team that has not been shy about spending, it's just can they get to the finish line and actually put it all together?
26:10
Yeah, I mean, you have to think this isn't the final move, and that's maybe why Soto was sold on going to the Mets because, I mean, there's been years of Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees, you know, passing on the Bryce Harpers and the Machados and the Seegers and the Freddie Freemans and not being involved in Ohtani, though he wanted to go west maybe.
26:24
But, uh, I think Soto more than anything from what it sounds like, and you're starting to see leaks of, "Hey, the Mets paid for the suite for Soto and his family. The Yankees weren't willing to do that."
26:32
I, I don't know what any of this is true, but, uh, look, if he wanted to go back to the Yankees, there was enough money there.
26:38
I, I think probably the tiebreaker for me was, uh, it was a better deal, it was a better contract.
26:43
Uh, but, but maybe he was just sold on the fact that, "Hey, m- maybe once I sign with the Mets, they're gonna keep spending, and if I sign with the Yankees, that's not gonna be the case."
26:50
Uh, you know, if you talk to Yankee fans, and I'm a Yankee fan, a bunch of my friends are Yankee fans, it's a lot of, uh, you know, too, too much money anyway, Mets overspent.
26:57
It, it's a lot of, you know, sour grapes, bitter ex, uh, you know, bitter ex-boyfriend kind of things. That's... Let's face it, that's what happened. The Mets came in and they stole the Yankee's girlfriend.
27:06
The Mets have been second fiddle on the field, off the field since forever, and they came in and, and, and changed that with... in one fell swoop.
27:12
They took one of the best players in baseball in his prime, and they stole him away from the Yankees. It's a devastating blow for the Yankees. Uh, it, it takes them off the shortlist of contenders.
27:21
Soto and Judge covered up a lot of the Yankee flaws, and you could say, "Hey, they're gonna reinvest that money into other players." Maybe. We'll see. I'm sure they'll get somebody, but there's no replacing Soto.
27:31
Uh, it, it crushes the Yankees. And, uh, look, if, if the Mets...
27:34
Uh, they're gonna need some pitching because, you know, Montas and Clay Holmes, who reunites with Soto oddly enough, that's not championship pitching right now. But, uh, there's still a lot of pitchers out there.
27:43
There's Freed, there's Burns, there's Sasaki. If they get one or two of these guys and they keep adding and adding, we'll see if they bring Alonso back.
27:49
You put Lindor on that team with, uh, with Soto, uh, the Mets are, are building a juggernaut. Now, look, it's...
27:54
they're still in a division with the Phillies, the Braves, so I wouldn't be going to rush the b- the, the bet the Mets because, you know, they could have a good year. Win 94 games, still come in at second or third.
28:01
They have a lot of competition in that division. Uh, I think this hurts the Yankees more than it helps the Mets, but the Mets are, are certainly building a juggernaut here.
28:08
So Soto already became, uh, one of my favorite players when he, right after the World Series, just brought up it's, it's basically open for business for me. I, I, uh, applaud him big time for that.
28:17
Do you guys think it's even deeper than that, though? Like, was he always gonna stay in New York City one way or the other and he just played all of us? No, I think he was gonna go for the most money.
28:27
I mean, these guys, we, we could talk about motivations and, you know, trying to get in these guys' heads, which I'm trying to do a little bit here. These guys usually just take the best deal, the most money. Yeah.
28:34
The, the Mets offer was more money. It was a $75 million signing bonus. The Yankee offer was less. It was more money for, uh, you know, one, one fewer year. Like, it, it was more money.
28:43
So you could sit here and say, "Well, the Yankees offer was still pretty good. It was respectable." It was, but it w- it wasn't the Mets offer. So these guys usually take the, the most, uh, you know, the biggest offer.
28:53
Uh, I've heard this floated out there, too, that maybe, you know, Cohen with his background in finance got into Soto's ear and said, "Hey, I can make you even more money, stock market, investment, things like that, so I'm gonna pay you this, but I can help you make even more money."
29:05
And maybe Soto, not that he needs the money, but maybe that was, you know, s- something that went into it as well. Good on him. Yeah, he's like- Money's awesome...
29:10
he's like, "Sir, yeah, if, if 760 is not enough for you, sir, let me, let me, let me tell you how I can make you even more." [laughs] Was definitely the, the conversation there.
29:18
Will Hill with us right now on a Numbers Game @NotTheWillHill, where you can follow, uh, William on the Twitter machine. How about college football playoff, Will?
29:25
We, we went through some of the opening lines from yesterday. Uh, been minimal line movement since then.
29:30
Anything you're looking at with the four games that are officially lined and anything in the futures market for you now that the 12 team playoff is set?
29:36
Yeah, it'd be dog or pass in these first four games, I think in all of them. Uh, I think I like Tennessee the most. I don't know if we're looking seven, seven and a half. We'll shop around.
29:45
Uh, I just think the matchup of Ohio State's offensive line, which is still banged up, uh, going against Tennessee, which has Pierce, which has, you know, took a couple NFL guys, maybe two or three NFL guys, uh, in that front four for Tennessee, is a bad matchup for Tennessee.
29:58
Obviously, the weather in these college football playoff games is gonna take, you know, be a factor here as we're playing, uh, cold weather in December, late December. Uh, I just think that's a close, low-scoring game.
30:08
Emil Iava starting to play a little better. That Vandy game, they averaged seven and a half yards per play. And I think Herbstreit on that, uh, that selection show, which took forever to...
30:17
I think we were 23 minutes in before we got one team announced.
30:20
Uh, he actually made, I thought, a point that was really interesting, really insightful, that, uh, Ohio State, if it doesn't go well early, watch out because they're at home and that home field advantage, so to speak, could work against them, where, hey, they go three and 0 early.
30:32
Everyone's uptight. Everyone's on Kelly and Day.
30:35
Uh, if they go three and out the first couple series, that, that might start to get very awkward, very uncomfortable in that building, and that might start to t- the crowd might start to turn on Ohio State.
30:42
So, uh, I think from a matchup standpoint, I think Tennessee matches up well, defensive line versus offensive line. I go back to that Indiana game, uh, with, with Ohio State, where I thought Indiana was live.
30:52
I, I wasn't sold on Ohio State. I was a week early because Ohio State laid the egg a week later. Uh, I, I think that game got away from Indiana because they dropped a punt, they gave a p- punt return touchdown.
31:01
Now, Indiana couldn't really move the ball, but Ohio State didn't really run the ball a- and they haven't run the ball with these offensive line injuries. So to me, that's a closer game.
31:09
I like Tennessee getting the points. And, uh, again, I, I liked e- either the dog or nothing in all of these games. I think Indiana getting a lot of points is, is, is live.
31:17
I just think, what's been the theme all year with college football? It's been parity. There's no great team. There's no dominant team. So why are we gonna go out and lay a touchdown or more in any of these games?
31:26
I think, uh, really all of these dogs are live. So Tennessee getting the points, Indiana getting the points. I even think that's a lot of points in Clemson versus, uh, versus Texas.
31:34
So I, uh, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple of upsets. I, I think one or two of these underdogs is gonna win and, uh, to me, there's one I'm, I'm sort of afraid of.
31:43
It's Penn State versus SMU, just because I don't know if SMU can hold up, uh, just their offensive line against Penn State defensive line.
31:50
Uh, they were the more dominant team, you know, f- from the third, from the second quarter on really against Clemson in that game. So to me, I, I, I think all of these lines are a touch high, though.
31:58
Sitting seven and a half right now, Notre Dame. Eight and a half, Penn State. 11 in the Texas game, hosting Clemson. And then a sev- there are still some seven and a halves out there, Will, for Tennessee and Ohio State.
32:07
Actually, one eight still in the market, uh, as well, as Will Hill joins us right now.
32:11
As far as the National Football League for week 15 as we, uh, we turn our attention forward, uh, anything that's jumping out to you here on the early card? Yeah, I'm gonna take the Panthers.
32:21
I think you get like, get a minus a point or so, or minus a cheap- Yeah... money line taking on the Cowboys. They've played pretty well.
32:26
I, I thought they were gonna get destroyed by Philly, and there were a couple moments in that game where, hey, bounce of a ball, Philly had a chance to get margin.
32:32
I thought Philly got really conservative, just kind of a strange game plan where they didn't look to put the foot on the throat o- of Carolina. But Young has been viable. He's been decent.
32:40
Uh, the defense played a little bit better last week after not holding up ag- ag- in, in the run against Tampa a couple weeks ago.
32:46
But if you just look at their last month, their last five games, I mean, they could have easily won three, four, five in a row here. They, they should've beaten Tampa.
32:53
Chuba Hubbard fumbles in overtime in field goal range. Uh, Kansas City was a coin toss game. Uh, you know, last week Leggett drops a ball that would've given them a lead with 44- Ugh... seconds left.
33:03
So to me, Dallas, yeah, we were, and we were all kind of r- rooting for Carolina. If you had nothing, just kind of rooting against the guy- Yeah... who bet 3 million, at least I was.
33:09
And I, I'm rooting for Minnesota to somehow- Right... you know, possibly get the one seed. So once... And you know how it is, 'cause I laid the points with Philly.
33:16
Once the team doesn't cover for you, you're like, "Screw 'em, I want 'em to lose the game straight up." Of course. But Carolina's been competitive here. I just think Dallas off of a short week. Uh, Overshown is now hurt.
33:25
I just think it's two teams going in different directions, so I do like Carolina o- on the cheap price there. And there's still some threes with Miami against the Texans. To me, just kinda two toss-up teams.
33:34
When Miami has Tua and they have their guys, that's still like a top 10 team, uh, as long as the weather's okay, and as long as, you know, they're, they're playing a team that's, uh, you know, not one of the elite teams in the league.
33:45
So to me, this is a toss-up game. Miami still playing for the chance to, "Hey, we run the table, we can get in the playoffs." So I think getting three there is a lot.
33:53
That was one that, uh, Kelly and I, we, we discussed yesterday. I'm, I like that Dolphin side, too, especially 'cause so often we see the NFL with handicapping. You remember what you saw last.
34:00
Dolphins should have lost outright against the Jets. Right. Seem a little sour, the, the general thought and, and perception on where Miami is at.
34:08
Uh, y- yeah, h- as far as these teams, too, like what team are you the most, I, I would say, like your, your personal thought on is the most down on relative to the market? For me, it's clearly Houston, where I- Hmm...
34:18
I'm just not a believer in them whatsoever. Market continues to like them. Is there a team f- for you, Will, that you just find yourself week in and week out feeling much worse about than where the market has them at?
34:27
I would say Houston, but just to give a different answer, I can't trust a team with no kicker like Baltimore. Their pass defense is so bad. Yeah.
34:34
And I know like all the talent, I know their A game is basically as good as anybody, but when you just don't have a kicker, these games are so close, you can't just...
34:41
Uh, um, a missed kick is a turnover, and they're very trustworthy in terms of Tucker and running him out there. So Baltimore for me has been a stay away the last couple weeks. All right, we'll mark Will down.
34:49
Giants eight to one on the money line this week. Uh, lo- locking in there for W- Will Hill. Always good to see you, [laughs] man. We'll, we'll catch up Thursday on the Mega Pod. Always a pleasure, man.
34:57
I'm sorry the Brewers fell short on Juan Soto. I p- I- [laughs] Yeah, thank, thank you for your condolences. I appreciate it. Yeah. We'll come back, talk some college football playoff next.
35:05
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35:39
As we're back on a numbers game, final half hour for us, and excited to go out to our progressive guest line, get in our guy Nick Whelan. And, uh, we're, you're about to be surrounded by Wisconsinites, Kelly.
35:49
That's right. You're inadequately prepared- [laughs]... on this Tuesday. I don't know if you have. I, I don't know. I am not sure anybody can be prepared. But it's Nick Whelan- [laughs]...
35:56
joining us on the progressive guest line. Uh, Nick from SiriusXM, a fantasy channel, NBA as well. It's, it's been awesome. I do a weekly hit with, uh, Nick over on his fantasy channel talking NFL.
36:06
So great to, great to see you, sir. And also should point out, Nick, excellent golf. Well, uh, ver- it's, which is hard when you live in Wisconsin 'cause you can only play like four months out of the year.
36:15
But, uh, thank- thanks for joining us, Nick. Are you also as high on the Milwaukee Bucks as Mr. Kelly Bidlin is tonight kicking off the NBA Cup here, as they are about seven-point favorites against the Magic at home?
36:27
I, I don't know if I'm quite as high as Kelly. You know, I was watching the show, uh, earlier today, and glad to see that Kelly's on, on the right side of things here.
36:33
But I, I don't know if I'm fully, fully buying back in on this Milwaukee Bucks team.
36:37
Certainly they're in a better spot than they were, you know, if you were to ask me three weeks ago, but have cleaned up on, on some of the bottom feeders in the Eastern Conference.
36:45
You know, got a huge win over the Nets this weekend. But at the same time, I, I think my favorite play for the NBA Cup tonight has to be the under 215 and a half in that Magic-Bucks game.
36:56
Got two of the biggest under teams in the NBA facing off. Obviously, the Magic down Both Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.
37:03
Both of these teams, they take a decent amount of threes, about league average, but Orlando gives up the fewest three-point attempts per game, guys.
37:10
And that's something that we gotta monitor closely any time you're playing an under in the NBA. Orlando also the worst three-point percentage team in the NBA.
37:19
So they're taking a decent amount of threes, but they're shooting them at just a 31% clip. Again, they're down their top two scorers by far. Bucs about league average in pace. Orlando's down at 25th.
37:29
And I think, guys, if you like the under, you gotta entertain, you gotta entertain Orlando here because I think fewer points means tighter game.
37:37
I think the Magic have the better coach i- in this situation in Jamahl Mosley. He's my coach of the year so far. So I would not be surprised if the Orlando Magic hang around.
37:45
I'm staying away from the side, but I have already played the under 215 and a half. And I take a look at some Jalen Suggs props as well. They're gonna be juiced up a little bit.
37:52
He's basically their only, you know, remaining dependable offensive option. But I like the over 24 and a half points plus boards tonight for Suggs.
37:59
Bucs are bottom 10 in the NBA in both points and rebounds allowed to the guard position this season. Would also take a look at Suggs over two and a half made threes.
38:09
He's taking a ton of threes because he has to, and the Bucs give up a ton of three-point attempts per game. Yeah. I know JVT and Zach Cohen here both, uh, betting those same exact props actually.
38:18
JVT over, uh- There we go... on, on the PRA over [laughs] and Zach on the, on the over made threes. I- it- it's funny you say it, Nick, 'cause I was looking, you know...
38:27
Okay, you're thinking who's gonna make up the score, the scoring, uh, deficit here? Who else is gonna contribute? I kind of circled back to the same thing you brought up, though. You wanna look for other Magic players.
38:37
The problem is, depending on them, depending on the minutes that they're gonna get even, like you said, I think Suggs is probably the best look. JVT and I were talking a bit, bit about that, uh, off the air this morning.
38:48
I think he would be the guy to make it up. I... and I agree, unders, under is probably the way I'd look if I'm looking at the total in this game.
38:55
And then when we look ahead to Mavericks-Thunder, I, I think it'd be total, uh, it'd be looking unders, unders as far as the totals go in both games for me tonight. Any, any thoughts- Yeah... on that one later?
39:06
No, I, I, I think you're right. I think you're right. I, I like the under in that game as well. Much higher total, of course, at, at 231 and a half.
39:12
And I will say, like, 215 and a half is, that's a high total for the Orlando Magic.
39:16
You know, they, they'd probably be an even bigger under team if they didn't have so many totals sitting in, like, the 205, 207 range this season. And it, it's just...
39:23
You look up and down that Magic roster and it's like who's, who's scoring for this team? Yeah. How are they getting to 100 and, you know, 105, 110 points in this game?
39:31
But yeah, in the Laker game, you know, a- again, staying away from the sides. Nothing would surprise me there. I, I think I would take the four and a half with Dallas.
39:38
But, you know, OKC, even without Chet Holmgren, they, they've still been a really good defensive team.
39:42
They have the type of guards in Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace, you know, who could give trouble to, to guys like Kyrie and Luka Dončić.
39:49
And I know we're only in year two, guys, of the NBA Cup, so we, we don't have a huge sample to work from. But it, the, the whole goal of this is to kinda make it feel like a playoff atmosphere, right?
39:58
And what do we tend to see in NBA playoff games? You know, better defense, more focus, better coaching. You know, these teams are well-rested coming into these games. They'll be prepared.
40:05
Uh, so I, I think if you, if you factor in, you know, kind of an uptick in, in, in intensity, especially on the defensive end, that, that pushes me toward unders in both of these games tonight.
40:14
Ben, personally- That's such a good point. Yeah... I, I... Like, if we, if we could bet on show side props, I would've lost so much money already.
40:20
I, I'm stunned that Drew Dincic is actually backing the Bucs and then, uh, and then Nick Whalen, no, nothing from him. Absolutely nothing from him. Stay away. Stay away. All right. I, I can't be a homer, guys.
40:30
I can't be too much of a homer. [laughs] It's, you know... Look, there, there's some emotional, uh, emotional hedging going on there, Kelly. It, it, you know, that's just kinda how it is.
40:38
Uh, we, we can't get too over our skates there. It's...
40:40
And looking at the Dallas side of it, though, just kind of for the, the future, Nick, and a team you've, uh, with, with since they are a contender in the West, you've followed them very closely.
40:48
But it's a, a group o- over the last 10 games are second in offensive rating, eighth on defense, best net rating in the NBA through this nine in one stretch.
40:55
I've been, uh, playing around trying to think is there a best futures way to bet Dallas, whether it is Luka Dončić in the MVP market, whether it's... You know, Dallas is still eight and a half to one to get to one seed.
41:05
They're about plus 140 to win their division right now. Is that a- Yeah...
41:08
team that you are also looking to find a way to invest some sort of way since the market has not completely caught up as far as the pricing a- as far as Dallas being a legit- Mm... Western Conference true contender?
41:21
Yeah, I think you have to look at the Mavericks right now. And, you know, Dallas plus 550 to win the West is, is where I would direct my attention. You know, 10 to 1 to win the finals.
41:30
That's, you know, match, match it up against, a- against Boston, the team that I likely think comes out of the Eastern Conference. You know, could be, could be a rematch.
41:37
But I think two years in a row that that would be a match up that favors the Boston Celtics. So I would look at Bo- at, at Dallas plus 550 to come out of the West.
41:44
And, you know, obviously you got OKC sitting at the top right now. They'll only get better once they get Chet Holmgren back in the mix. But, you know, the Western Conference, as usual, is much deeper than the East.
41:55
But, like, who else are you, are you really, really scared of right now? It's like I, I know Memphis is ahead of Dallas in the standings. It's, it's a good Memphis team.
42:03
It's still a team that I, I think Dallas could beat in a playoff series. You know, Houston, they're, they're technically ahead of them right now. You know, still a young team. Maybe they, maybe they make a splash.
42:11
Maybe they bring in Jimmy Butler, who knows? But I, I still think that's a team that I would take Dallas, uh, in a playoff series. You know, Golden State, we'll see. Kind of an aging team.
42:19
I'm not really worried about- Yeah... the Clippers, not worried about the Lakers.
42:22
And then, like, you know, the Nuggets and the Timberwolves are the two teams that I think a lot of people thought we would be talking about in this context. And Minnesota looks lost to me, man.
42:30
This is, this is not, [laughs] not a good basketball team. They're a team that looks like they're missing a piece. Uh, that piece might be Karl-Anthony Towns.
42:36
Unless they make some sort of addition, which I don't think they will based on how this team has operated over the last calendar year, I don't really consider them a true contender.
42:44
And, you know, you can never cross off Denver, guys, w- with the way Jokić is playing. But that does not have the feel of a title contending team either.
42:51
So if you're, if you're kinda looking beyond OKC in the Western Conference, okay, which team in, in, in that next bunch do I trust most, it would have to be the Dallas Mavericks, no question.
42:59
That's 10 to 1 there to win it all. As far as the actual NBA Cup and the games still to come, you mentioned Golden State and Houston as two teams who are kinda, you know, you don't necessarily- Yeah...
43:08
worry about them long-term. But they are facing each other tomorrow. That's the Western Conference quarterfinal match up. And it's that weird situation, Nick, where we've already had two games between the two. Yep.
43:17
Golden State has won both. They've been extremely tight. Houston laying two and a half at home tomorrow. How do you see that playing out?
43:24
Yeah, this is a-an-another difficult one, you know, and I will mention, you know, Dallas nine to one to win the NBA Cup I think is actually a, a pretty solid bet, uh, as well.
43:33
If they can get through th-this first game, I think they'll be in a, a pretty good spot. And, you know, if, if you're giving me two and a half with Golden State, even on the road in Houston, I, I think I would take that.
43:42
I, I just, I trust the, the Golden State infrastructure more than I do right now, uh, the Houston Rockets, who at times, you know, have looked like one of the five best teams in the NBA.
43:50
They'll also have these blowup games every now and then where, you know, th- Ema Udoka goes wild or Alperen Sengun just kinda no-shows.
43:56
Like, they, you know, they, they still don't have that, that one guy that you can depend on every single night.
44:01
And I, I think Sengun is, is getting close to, to joining that, that conversation, but he's not there quite yet. You know, Golden State should be healthy coming into this one.
44:09
You know, Steph and Draymond have missed some time over the last couple of weeks, but they should be good to go.
44:14
And keep in mind, Golden State has already beat Houston twice straight up this season without Steph Curry playing in both of those games. And, and one of those they didn't have Steph or Draymond.
44:23
So I know it's difficult to beat a team three times, you're always gonna hear that, but I lean Golden State here w-with Curry and Draymond in the mix.
44:30
And, you know, especially if you're giving me the two and a half, I'll take Golden State to, to, to cover in. Why not?
44:34
We'll, we'll take 'em to win that game straight up and, and set up a match up with the Mavs in the semis. There you go. A little, I mean, look, Dallas and... Dallas plus 155, Golden State plus 120.
44:43
Have, have yourself a day with the- Sure... with the underdogs there. Nick Whelan with us right now on A Numbers Game.
44:47
I have to admit the, when I first looked at the card for the NBA Cup, the first round games in, in the quarters, I, I kinda thought, "Man, Atlanta, th-th-they're just begging to get bet here."
44:55
And they have gotten some money- Yeah... from eight and a half point dogs in New York down to seven. But, you know, the more you dig in on these New York numbers, they've been so good. Best offensive team in the league.
45:03
Last 10 plus games, where are you at on, on Hawks and Knicks tomorrow at MSG? Yeah, I mean, the Hawks, they're, they're begging us to take 'em seriously, especially over these last couple of weeks.
45:13
They've, they banked some, some really impressive wins, you know, hanging in with, uh, w-with Cleveland and Boston, you know, doing the same against Milwaukee last week.
45:21
I, I still think this w- this would be a Knicks spot for me. You know, I ca-can't be going too many underdogs here, guys. I think the Knicks are playing so well offensively right now.
45:29
It, it, it is heavily starting five dependent. They are the highest scoring starting five in NBA history right now. You know, just had another game last night where they put up 91 combined points from that starting five.
45:39
So you worry a little bit about the bench. But I think in this spot I, I trust the Knicks to take care of business. And this could be one to, to look over on as well.
45:45
I know it's a high total at 237, but we know neither of these teams, especially Atlanta, play defense. Not particularly, no. From 233 and a half all the way up to 237. Always great to have Nick Whelan on with us, man.
45:55
Be well. Thanks for joining us. Hey, anytime, guys. Enjoy the rest of the show. We'll come back, wrap everything up with our be-best bets on the other side right here on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
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