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Dec 12, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 12, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 12, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy. Morgan & Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. They have over 100 offices nationwide and more than 1,000 lawyers.
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0:26
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
[upbeat rock music] Coming to you from the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las Vegas, this is a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. I'm Scott Seidenberg in for Gil. He's Kelly Bidlin. He's often here.
0:51
Often, yes. Often. All, all, all the time, yeah, yeah. Often here. Scott, it's good to have you, man. Uh, it's good to be here, Kelly.
0:57
Let's get everybody ready for NFL week number 15, which will kick off tonight, Thursday Night Football, between the Rams and the 49ers. But we have NBA Cup action, which we gotta discuss from last night.
1:08
The semifinals are now set here in Las Vegas. We will have, uh, the Hawks advancing after beating the Knicks 108-100 last night.
1:17
The Rockets, a 91-90 win over the Golden State Warriors with a little controversy at the end of the game, as, uh, there was a jump ball situation that was instead called a foul.
1:31
Free throws to the Houston Rockets, who nailed two to win the game, 91-90. Steve Kerr not happy about that. Warriors bettors not happy about that. Or were they, Kelly?
1:41
[laughs] Because even though the Warriors lost the game, they still covered the number. Yeah, this is always what we talk about, uh, at NBA betting.
1:51
It, it's small fa- you know, these smaller lines, you know, take the points, lay the money line situation [laughs] just to, for your own sanity, uh, reasons at the end of games like this. But it was, yeah, wild finish.
2:01
I mean, pretty, uh, pretty crazy the Warriors didn't end up winning this game. Up seven, uh, there b- pretty late, Houston able to come back, win the, win this game. Um, big win for Houston.
2:11
We talked about it all leading up to this game. 15 in a row- [laughs]... the Golden State Warriors had won. The last time the Rockets had won was 2020, February of 2020.
2:21
So a big win for a young Houston team, uh, that's gonna move on here and be- when one of the most impressive teams early in the season now go on to face Oklahoma City in the semifinals, setting up, I think, a great semifinal.
2:33
I... This NBA Cup for me, Scott, has been, I think, awesome these first two years, 'cause you really have got a- gotten some of the hot teams early in the season- Sure... that have gotten far, far into this cup.
2:43
Think Pacers of last year. Now you're talking about some of these teams like the Rockets advancing. Um, sets up a great Western Conference, uh, match up here on Saturday night.
2:52
Yeah, and what's interesting is when you look at these NBA Cup games, and certainly we've seen it in the semi- in the quarterfinals, I, I should say, these games are going under.
3:01
Three and one to the under in the four quarterfinal games, and the games last night not only went under- Yeah... but they went under by a mile. We're talking 30 points.
3:09
If you played alternate unders on the Knicks and the Buck- on the Knicks and the, the Hawks, and you played alternate under on that Warriors game, I mean, you cashed with ease and got a pretty nice plus money payout.
3:19
And I think it's something to pay attention to as we move forward into these semifinals here in Las Vegas. First off, yes, it is a, an NBA style arena. It wasn't built for the NBA. Mm.
3:32
But it's not like they're playing in a, a, you know, a, a stadium like a f- like a Final Four. You're in a football stadium where the sight lines are off, or they're playing in a smaller gym.
3:41
Like, this is still a big arena at T-Mobile. Yeah. And so the sight lines aren't going to be as difficult as they would be if... But it is still a newer location that these players might not be familiar with.
3:52
So I always tend to lean to unders in those situations, like when we have these exhibition games that are played- Mm-hmm... in other arenas that you're not used to, or the international games in somewhat.
4:01
So if we take a look at the lines, I think the unders are gonna be the way to go when these games happen here this weekend. Hawks and Bucks, we're looking at 231, which that right away seems like a big number to me.
4:14
Rockets-Thunder, 215 and a half. Little bit more reasonable on that one. Yeah. But I still wanna lean under on both of these semifinal games coming up here this weekend.
4:23
Yeah, Hawks-Bucks, uh, Hawks-Bucks a little bit different animal to me. This was same thing we talked- Ben and I talked about yesterday on the show. I...
4:30
It was, by my numbers, Knicks were probably the best bet of the quarterfinals, but this Hawks team has been so random to start the season that I- Mm-hmm... stayed far away from it.
4:40
And I think that will continue with me even total-wise. We saw Milwaukee, I mean Milwaukee in their quarterfinal matchup, lucky to escape with a win.
4:47
Their defense was absolutely horrible, and that's gonna be something that they're gonna have to figure out as the season goes on. And what we're seeing, and the other natural that I... Great...
4:55
Y- you broke down the stadiums and arenas perfectly. The other thing is just you do get a higher level of intensity on defense- It's a playoff game, yeah... when there's something to play for, right? Mm-hmm. Sure.
5:03
Every one of these guys got 100 grand after these wins last night. [laughs] Like, it's something, yeah? Like, they... You got Trae Young rolling the dice in the center of Madison Square Garden.
5:09
He's ready to get out to Vegas. So you do see that intensity level step up. I, I hear it. I mean, I was on under the Warriors- uh, Rockets last night. I think that would translate a bit over to Rockets-Thunder.
5:20
W- Interested to see where that number moves to. 215 and a half, obviously pretty low, uh, for an NBA game already. But you're just... Y- you're talking, I'm looking back at their last 11 games.
5:29
This is number two and number three defense, uh, defensive rating in the NBA going up against each other.
5:34
This Houston team has really built their foundation of what they are this season on the backs of that defense, and this Thunder team, uh, we saw it building last year. But they are...
5:44
Uh, they might be making a statement in this NBA Cup of, uh, uh, you know, "Boston, watch out, here we come for a, uh, for a championship this year," 'cause this team's got everything they need to go win it.
5:53
Odds to win the NBA Cup right now, the Thunder are the favorite, plus 125, followed by the Bucks at plus 230. And if you're interested, Rockets plus 400, Hawks plus 600.
6:03
The NBA Cup semifinals this weekend here in Las Vegas.
6:07
We focus our attention now on football, where the biggest story in the NFL was actually a college football story, as Bill Belichick returns to the sidelines, and he will be coaching at the University of North Carolina.
6:21
And I know a lot of people, including myself, were waiting to see which team was going to reach out to Bill Belichick to try and hire him. I- I'm not so sure that... 'Cause I've heard this, Kelly.
6:31
I've heard this from other hosts and other podcasts and whatnot saying, "Oh, this is an indictment on the organizations that are looking for coaches in the NFL." Hmm.
6:39
This is, he doesn't want to coach the Jets, he doesn't want to coach the Giants, he doesn't want to coach the Raiders. All these teams, not interested to Bill Belichick.
6:46
Well, why would North Carolina be more interested than an NFL program? And I think it's because of the way that college football has changed in the NIL era. Now, some coaches, not happy about it, they decide to leave.
7:00
We saw Jeff Hafley decide, "I'm not gonna coach at the college level anymore. I'm gonna take a job in the NFL." Coach from Boston College joins his buddy Matt LaFleur and becomes the DC over in Green Bay.
7:10
But for Bill Belichick, this is the perfect time for him to take a college job. Because it's not so much about recruiting anymore. It's become an NIL business, and that is why
7:23
you hire someone like our very own Mike Lombardi. Mike Lombardi, if you haven't heard the news, uh, will be departing VSIN as he joins Bill Belichick to be the general manager at North Carolina.
7:35
And this is a new position. We saw it with Woj- Yeah... leaving ESPN, becoming the general manager at St. Bonaventure.
7:40
Like, this is a position that these college programs are opening up because college sports now is a business... Well, it was always a business. Mm.
7:48
But more so than building a program, it's how do you work the transfer portal? How do you work with your NIL budget?
7:56
And I'll say this, with Bill Belichick becoming the head coach at North Carolina, this NIL budget has just gone through the roof. [laughs] It's, uh, it is fascinating, 'cause you're right.
8:06
We- we've seen some of these college coaches struggle with it and almost have to, uh, you know, like give it up, right? Mm-hmm. A- and give up their college careers.
8:14
And I think this is gonna be a really interesting test case, uh, with Bill Belichick coming in here. Is the, is it... I think a lot of us think this is more translatable to what an NFL front office- Yes...
8:23
with situation looks like these days. And we're gonna see it with Bill Belichick and Michael Lombardi heading in, heading in there if this, it really is the case in college football now.
8:33
A- a- you know, from all of us here at VSIN, I know everybody's sad, but congratulations to Michael, uh, who's been here for six years now at the network, done, uh, a lot of great work in his time here.
8:41
And this is, uh, you know, big move, a- a- and this is gonna be... I, I, it's gonna be really interesting to see how it shakes out.
8:47
I think from a, from a personal level when it comes to Belichick, a- a- he's so associated with the NFL- Sure... to me, it almost makes me a little sad- Mm-hmm...
8:55
that we're s- we're gonna be s- talking about him in the college ranks. But with how much college football's changed- Mm-hmm...
9:02
I think these guys are gonna be really interesting to see how they handle it compared to some of the other programs out there.
9:07
Yeah, I've seen the people that are out there saying, well, is Bill Belichick gonna go into some 17-year-old's living room and sit on the couch and talk to the parents and recruit the kid to North Carolina?
9:16
No, he's gonna have a staff that's going to do that. Yeah. I mean, I can't picture Belichick sitting on the couch going, "You know, we got a great program, great facilities over there in Chapel Hill.
9:24
And I think you're gonna, your son's gonna do a great job when he comes over here and be a part of our program." No.
9:28
But what Bill Belichick is going to do, and what Michael Lombardi's going to do, is they're gonna take a look at the backup tight end, let's say, on Iowa, and offer him X amount of dollars in NIL money to transfer over to North Carolina, and then turn him into the next Rob Gronkowski.
9:43
Yeah. Like, that's what they're gonna do.
9:45
They're gonna find talent and work the transfer portal, work this NIL era, this new, this new world of college football that we, that exists now, and that's how they're gonna build this program.
9:57
And having guys that have done it at the professional level better than anybody- Mm-hmm... this is going to pay off in dividends for North Carolina. I'm gonna ask you right now, Kelly,
10:07
winning a championship first, North Carolina or one of, let's say, the four teams that we think will be looking for head coachin- head coaches in the NFL? Talking Jets, Giants... Well, not, maybe not Giants. We'll see.
10:22
Uh, Jaguars, Bears, one of those teams. Raiders. Okay, I'll still, I'll still go with the NFL answer. A- a- any of those teams [laughs] who... Do I get the field? Do I get the, I get all of them?
10:32
[laughs] Then I'll, then I'll go with the field. The, the old team, all the teams that you just broke down. I think just still we, I, we're, we're interested to see how the NFL mindset, I think, translates- Mm-hmm...
10:42
over to college football, but it's still, you still gotta build a program- Sure... build a culture, all that, right? Mm-hmm.
10:47
Even if you can recruit some of the younger guys or, or get even some of the young transfers, they might take a couple years.
10:52
The NFL, we see how quick you can change a, uh, a program around in a year or two if you get the right draft picks too, right? That's fair. That, that's fair. So I, I think that's the...
11:00
It's kind of a cop-out answer, but to answer your question- [laughs]... I'm gonna go with the NFL teams. That's fair. Well, good luck to Belichick and, of course, to our very own Michael Lombardi there at North Carolina.
11:09
Now, as we focus in on the NFL, it's week 15. It'll kick off tonight, Thursday Night Football between the Rams and the 49ers.
11:15
Lots of familiarity between both of these coaches, between both of these teams, obviously playing in the division.
11:22
And it's interesting when you focus in on a game like this that has so much familiarity, because we can look at prior match-ups, and we could look at coaching history.
11:32
But I think what we really need to do is you almost have to throw out priors a- and get rid of any bias that you might have in regards to both of these teams, and just focus on what we're looking at right now.
11:45
Because it's obvious this is not the same San Francisco 49ers team that we're accustomed to seeing, and the Rams right now playing at a level that, frankly, is maybe the best they've looked- Yeah... all season long.
11:58
He's Kelly Billy, and I'm Scott Seidenberg in for Gil. We will take a look at Thursday Night Football, maybe cook up a same-game parlay for you as well.
12:06
Coming up next, it's the Numbers Game here on VSIN, the sports betting network.
12:09
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
12:26
[upbeat music]Back here on A Numbers Game. I'm Scott Steinberg, in for Gillies.
12:32
Kelly Bidlin here on VSiN, the sports betting network, as we take a look at tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Rams and the 49ers, kicking off week 15.
12:42
And the 49ers now down to a two-and-a-half-point favorite as the market has followed Circa, which was the first to move it down to two and a half, and we are at 48.5 now for the total.
12:52
So we've seen a movement towards the under, and we've seen a movement here in favor of the Rams moving this off the key number of three and down to two and a half, which I- I don't think we can, you know, overstate how big of a move that is.
13:06
Yeah. So pay attention to that. That is a big move going from three to two and a half. So obviously Circa making a statement, and the rest of the books following based on the action that they are receiving.
13:16
When we take a look at tonight's game, and from a props perspective, something that I talked about earlier in the show was Matthew Stafford targeting tight alignment wide receivers. Now, what does that mean?
13:28
Well, you watch football, guys. Think about this. Your wide receivers, they can e- they, there's, uh, different ways that they can line up on the field.
13:34
They can go split out wide, and so they're by the numbers or close to the sideline. They could be in the slot, which is, like, in between, like, the tight end and the wide out wide receiver.
13:44
Or they can be in tight, which the Rams utilize a lot of tight formations, meaning you're gonna see these wide receivers really close to the offensive lineman by the line of scrimmage.
13:55
Matthew Stafford is targeting the tight targets at the third highest rate in the NFL. So there's only two other quarterbacks that are throwing to these tight targets more than Matthew Stafford.
14:04
The 49ers defense, meanwhile, has allowed the ninth most yards per play, 8.7, and the fifth highest EPA, the expected points added, versus tight targets. So how do we take advantage of that? Well,
14:18
I looked at the Rams, and I looked at all their stats this year. And the receiver that has run the most routes on tight targets is Colby Parkinson,
14:30
so much more than the next highest receiver or tight end for this, the La- the Los Angeles Rams. And I looked at his prop for tonight. His total yardage, receiving yardage, eight and a half.
14:46
Now, Kelly, can you pull up Colby Parkinson's game logs, please? [laughs] And why don't you tell me what he's done in the past four weeks? Well, you want the good news or the bad news, Scott?
14:55
Just, just, just read them off to me. What do we got? All right. Past four weeks. Last week, one catch, one target, 11 yards. Okay, so that's an over. Yep. Week before against the Saints, one catch, one target, 13 yards.
15:08
So that's an over. [laughs] Week before against the Eagles, one catch, two targets, 10 yards. So that's an over. Week before against the Patriots, one catch, one target, 19 yards. I'm catching a theme here. Ladder up.
15:22
I'm catching [laughs] I'm catching a theme here when it comes to Colby Parkinson. No, I'm not gonna bet his receptions props over- Yeah, right. Yeah... or even under, because it's probably a half, to be honest with you.
15:32
But at eight and a half yards, literally we're just asking for him to catch one ball. And based on the stats, the 49ers are vulnerable to tight target receivers.
15:43
The guy who lines up as a tight target for the Rams is Colby Parkinson. One catch to go over eight and a half yards seems like a interesting prop bet for tonight's game. I also teased out an anytime touchdown score.
15:59
You did, yep. Now I'm going to, as they say, ladder- Ladder [laughs]... ladder this. As the kids say. Yeah. Because I'm also gonna talk about this player's yardage prop, and that player is George Kittle.
16:10
George Kittle has, is having a tremendous season for the San Francisco 49ers. Much more impressive game log. [laughs] Mu- [laughs] much more impressive than Colby Parkinson.
16:19
Kittle right now has recorded plus 250 receiving yards over expected, which is the fourth most in the NFL, plus nine and a half receptions over expected, the sixth most in the NFL. He's recorded
16:37
387 yards after catch, which is the third most amongst tight ends in the NFL.
16:44
And his 70.2% catch success rate, uh, and his yards after the catch, seventh highest among tight ends, seventh highest amongst all receivers in the NFL. How do the Rams defend the tight end position, you ask?
17:00
Good question. An average of 5.46 receptions per game and an average of 55.85 yards per game. George Kittle tonight has a juiced over on his yardage at 59 and a half. His reception prop is at four and a half.
17:18
Which one is more appealing to you? Oh, man. Um- Receptions or yardage?
17:24
I o- I mean, I think naturally I w- I'm, I'm more of a yardage guy anyways, but then especially when we talk about a guy like Kittle, the run after catch ability- Mm-hmm... it's just, uh, you, you, you could get there.
17:33
I mean, what, what, what's the yardage again, Geor- 59 and a half. 40... 59 and a half. I mean, w- with George Kittle, that could be three, three catches. It might- Yep... it might be all you need.
17:40
So I w- especially with him, I would gravitate towards yardage. I, I lean towards the yardage as well. Now obviously the reception numbers are there when it comes to the Rams' defense.
17:48
Like I said, on average against tight ends, the Rams are allowing 5.46 receptions per game. But I think the yardage is the way to go here because of how great he is, as you mentioned, after the catch- Mm-hmm...
17:59
and I just gave those numbers. He is one of the tops in the NFL in yards after catch and yards after catch over expected. So he's getting more yards than what we're, what he's supposed to be getting- Right...
18:10
based on all of the analytics here. Now, as far as the anytime touchdown, which right now it's at plus 130. Anytime you get plus money is obviously a good thing. Would you like it to be higher odds? Sure. Shop around.
18:23
Different books have different odds on anytime touchdown scorers. But the reason why I love George Kittle to score a touchdown is because he is the number one red zone target for the 49ers
18:33
He has accounted for 27.7% of the 49ers red zone targets. He leads the NFL with 113 yards, eight touchdowns, and five receptions over expected in the red zone this season.
18:49
So when Brock Purdy gets, gets within the 20, he's looking for one man, and that's George Kittle. So it might be chalky, but I like George Kittle anytime touchdown plus 130. Yeah, I like that. I, I do like that.
19:02
I think the Niners, uh, I, I mean, especially, I like the Rams. I, I don't know. Which, which side are you leaning to in this game? I guess we haven't really talked about that one yet.
19:10
At the two and a half, it's teasing the Rams up. So teasing the Rams up? Okay. So- Yeah. At the three it was the Rams, but I don't want to lay... I don't wanna take two and a half. Yeah, especially...
19:16
I mean, if I like the Ram- if I like the Rams, there's also the, there's also the game state, right, where the Niners are playing catch-up a little bit too, right?
19:23
I, I think that's where we, we, we see Kittle even more active. Um, but yeah, you mentioned the red zone stuff. That is absolutely massive.
19:30
And with all the injuries they've had with the ru- uh, with the running backs, Grendel looks like he's gonna go tonight, but still, I don't know how confident you, you are with hi- with, with him and his ability.
19:38
I think re- exce- I, I think we should see an active Brock Purdy as well tonight, and we were talking about his favorite red zone [laughs] target. Mm-hmm. One of his favorite targets, period.
19:47
Um, I think that makes a lot of sense with Kittle. Now, Zach Cohen brought up something with us last segment in regards to Deebo Samuel. Yeah. And I made the joke, "The squeaky wheel gets the grease."
19:55
That's what they say. But how many times this season have we seen wide receivers throw fits or say something to the media, and then the team kind of force-feeds that player- It's incredible... to appease them?
20:07
Well, if you haven't paid attention to the news, Deebo Samuel tweeted out that he's not hurt, he's just not getting the ball. To then, a lot of 49ers fans reminded him that he leads the team in drops.
20:17
Uh, the tweets have been deleted. [laughs] And when asked about it, Deebo said, "You read what you read."
20:23
So he's not taking back his comments, but I gotta believe that this is something that Kyle Shanahan has addressed with him, and may be something that Deebo has addressed inside that offensive room with his quarterback Brock Purdy and the other receivers.
20:37
We know the injuries that they're dealing with. He's not having a good season, but he still is a tremendous offensive weapon.
20:45
I just feel like with the injuries to their backfield especially, they find ways to put the football in Deebo Samuel's hands. Maybe it's running the ball, so you could take a look at his rushing plus receiving prop.
20:55
Or maybe it's these short screen passes, to which case maybe his receptions prop is interesting. Yeah. I, I... It'll be interesting to me. I just pulled up his game log. I understand why he's frustrated.
21:06
It has not been much. Now, he was... He did get five carries last week in that blowout against Chicago. Um, you know, it... Th- those were, those were early- Mm-hmm...
21:15
uh, uh, in that game, so maybe he'll even be more active. I do think with the running back injuries, I'd look at ru- rushing plus receiving volume. We were talking about this pre-show.
21:22
I am absolutely 100% with you on, uh, Scott, on the trend of as soon as a wide receiver starts to complain. [laughs] On Wednesday, whenever they open up prop markets, I'm in. I got in on A.J. Brown yesterday. I...
21:34
There, there's even more I've gotta consider now, Deebo, I haven't- Yep... I didn't even take the time to consider yet.
21:39
But they're almost automatic bets for me these days, 'cause it is, it's incredible how it, how, how much the game plan seems to be force-feeding these guys.
21:46
And something you can take a look at, too, is when these books open up first drive props. Mm. You can look to maybe get a guy to get a reception on that first drive.
21:55
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22:48
We focus on the ice coming up next right here on A Numbers Game, here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
[upbeat music] Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy.
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Morgan & Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. They have over 100 offices nationwide and more than 1,000 lawyers. Their fee is free unless they win.
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For more information, go to forthepeople.com/bestbets or dial #LAW, #529 from your cellphone. That's F-O-R thepeople.com/bestbets. This is a paid advertisement. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
23:35
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:41
[upbeat music] Back here at the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las Vegas, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Biblin. This is A Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:54
As we shift our attention away from the NFL for just a moment, let's focus on hockey, because we might have cooked up a best bet or two or three for tonight's heavy slate of action.
24:06
Joining us on the progressive guest line, he is the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NFL, Jake Hahn joining us here on A Numbers Game on VSiN.
24:14
And Jake, the first place that I wanna start is with the New Jersey Devils, who k- are coming off one of the most crushing defeats, and I say that because it crushed my wallet as well the other night, when they absolutely dominated a game against Toronto and lost in overtime.
24:31
When you watch a game like that play out, do you like to back the team that is coming off of that crushing loss, or do you typically fade that team?
24:39
How do you handle a game that played out the way that that Devils and Maple Leafs game played out? Yeah, I think it's a great conversation and a great, uh, betting angle. Thanks for having me on t- uh, today, guys.
24:49
And I watched almost the entirety of that New Jersey-Toronto game, and you could probably run that thing back 100 times, and I would say New Jersey probably wins it, like, 96, 97 times [laughs] That, that's how dominant it was.
25:01
I mean- Not making me feel better. [laughs] No, exactly. I'm, I'm, I'm sorry, I'm just piling on at this point, but, you know, Stolarz plays great between the pipes.
25:08
And the, the Leafs do have, uh, high-end talent, so if you keep them in the game long enough, you know, they can have their mark like they did in, in that overtime as well.
25:15
But I would be more likely to back the team coming off that heartbreaking loss than fade them, especially when that team is the New Jersey Devils. The, the way that this team can play, and they can just swarm teams.
25:24
Now, LA's a, a tricky match-up tonight. They tend to defend quite well, and they're coming in on a, on a big win streak right now. They're, they're playing some excellent hockey, so tough to go up against the Kings.
25:33
I think it's a six-game win streak they come in on at the moment, but I just love the, the way the Devils are playing.
25:38
If they play exactly like they did against the Leafs a couple nights ago, uh, I think they win, uh, against, against the Kings tonight.
25:44
I think you're getting a pretty good line just because LA's coming in o- on this win streak right now. A- absolutely. And, and I actually just ran a trend here in the database taking a look at some recent history.
25:54
So I went back as far as 2021, you know, post-COVID years, so the past three-plus seasons.
26:00
If you lost a game where you had over 35 shots on goal and your opponent had fewer than 20, so that would mean it's a pretty one-sided game in your favor, but you lost that game. Well, since 2021, those teams respond
26:15
34 and nine record. That's winning at 79.1%. Give me the Devils tonight as my best bet. So it sounds like we're both either winning or losing money on the Devils tonight- [laughs]...
26:26
because I, I, even before we spoke and before you gave me that stat, I, I did, uh, it did jump out to me a- as one of the plays I really like tonight just based on the line.
26:35
And again, I ac- I actually really do like the LA Kings, the opponent tonight, but at, at some point, they're gonna have to lose a game here.
26:40
Uh, and this is just what New Jersey, uh, does to teams or have, have done over the last few years. They can just swarm you, uh, possess the puck a lot.
26:47
They can run up the shot clock, and I trust their goal-tending situation a little bit more than LA's right now. So you could probably find a minus 140, maybe a minus 145 out there on New Jersey.
26:58
If, if you wanna risk it with the puck line, I, I think you could probably do that, but I, I think the money line's the safer play tonight. So how do you handle Toronto now, who comes off- Yeah...
27:06
of that surprising win in New Jersey? They're at home tonight facing the Anaheim Ducks, who come in on the second of a back-to-back, and Toronto is a massive favorite.
27:15
I'm looking at minus 440 for the Maple Leafs here- Whoa... against the Ducks. Yeah, I, I tend to avoid these big favorites in the NHL, guys. It's just, it's not worth paying up this price, right?
27:25
Especially when there's 14 games on the board and, and you could find some, some other better numbers out there. E- like, even Leafs on the puck line, you gotta lay a little bit of juice with that.
27:32
That's how, uh, that's how heavy this is. But I, I do think they probably win this game going away at the end of the day.
27:37
Anaheim on that second half of a back-to-back, like you mentioned, they are gonna go with Lukas Dostal tonight, uh, between the pipes, who's been relatively good this year.
27:45
So I think the case for Anaheim would be basically what Toronto did to New Jersey the other night, right? Where Toronto dominates the shot clock.
27:51
Dostal plays really well, and he's been capable of stealing games for Anaheim this year. So if you wanted to make a case for Anaheim, that would probably be it.
27:58
I just think it's too much, uh, to not enough here, and, and Toronto's probably gonna win this one comfortably.
28:03
Well, speaking of big underdogs, the other night we saw the San Jose Sharks go to Carolina, where the Hurricanes were minus 500 favorites and almost lost that game.
28:11
Because San Jose, if, people that don't watch hockey are just gonna, like, they say the Sharks are the worst team in the league.
28:17
They're always, you know, at minus 500 for the favorites, and they're getting massive plus money. But this is one of the best young, talented, fast, aggressive teams that I've seen in the past couple of years.
28:28
They're plus 170 tonight in St. Louis. Are, can you talk me off of betting the Sharks tonight- Uh-... or are you riding with me here?
28:36
I, I, you're, you're talking to the wrong guy if you wanna be talked off San Jose this year- [laughs]... because I, I love this team. And look, they're still gonna lose their fair share of games.
28:43
They're still very much early in a rebuild. This is year two. They just drafted first overall and got Macklin Celebrini last year. So they're still building towards something.
28:51
But they're ahead of, of where I think a lot of us thought they were going to be.
28:54
And at, in terms of, of betting, you know, daily fantasy, all these sorts of things, there's a lot more value in this team than I thought there was going to be coming into this year.
29:02
The Celebrini shot prop has been great. Uh, the Eklund point prop is a market that I, I've really liked as well, a young Swedish forward for San Jose that's been excellent.
29:10
You could go up and down the list and I think find a lot of value, even just outside the total and the money line, but that's a big number. Now, St.
29:16
Louis has been playing much better since they made the coaching change and they brought in Jim Montgomery. He has given this team a little bit of a boost. I actually don't mind the over in this game, uh, guys. Ooh.
29:26
I, I, we don't know exactly who the goaltenders are going to be. Uh, it could be Alexander Georgiev, uh, for San Jose, who just came over from Colorado via trade.
29:34
Uh, so over five and a half, over six, depending on what kind of price you wanna p- uh, play. And I also love a prop on the, the St. Louis side, Dylan Holloway, over two and a half shots on goal.
29:44
You can get that around plus 125, maybe plus 130 if you shop it a little bit. Uh, he's, he's been firing it in a, a nice offensive spot for St. Louis lately. You mentioned Celebrini.
29:53
He's plus 200 to win the Calder Trophy as the NHL's Rookie of the Year right now. That's the second favorite behind Matvei Michkov of the, uh, Philadelphia Flyers. I, I think Celebrini's the play here.
30:04
Y- at plus 200, obviously I'm a little late to the, to the boat. I, I think I'd like to get a better number than that.
30:09
But the way that he's playing, with all due respect to Michkov, who's scoring a lot there i- in Philadelphia, I don't know what goes on with torch sometimes and the playing time. I think Celebrini's the play here.
30:19
Who do you like in this market? Well, I, I watched that train go by, like a train that I miss in Toronto trying to get to work e- every single day, because I, I remember he came back from his, his injury.
30:28
He missed a few weeks at the start of the season. He comes back. I, you know, pull up the sportsbook. Okay, what- you know, what, what's the, what's the Calder odds looking like? And he was about seven to one. Hmm.
30:38
And I thought, "Man, that's a, that's a big number for a guy with this kind of ceiling." And then you wait just a little too long, it goes to four to one, you feel like you, you missed the boat.
30:45
And now, like you said, it's up to the two to one. But I still think if, like, if you were getting into it right now, he is probably the play for me, just with his high-end ceiling.
30:53
Mitch Kov does continue to dazzle in Philly, and, and I really like him as a player moving forward, but Celebrini would be my pick. If you're looking for a long shot, though, uh, Dustin Wolf, the Calgary Flames- Ooh...
31:03
new goaltender. If a- anyone could build a case, I think it's a goalie starter on a team that could possibly make the playoffs. So a bit of a long shot, but I, I do think Celebrini wins.
31:11
Jake, well just look- if, just looking at the Stanley Cup futures, if y- Let's just say you're a guy who happens to bet a lot of NBA, like myself, on a nightly basis- [laughs]...
31:20
and you've been checked out of the NHL season- Yeah... a bit so far. I, one thing I love about the NHL is we've only got, what, four teams that are shorter than 10 to one right now, uh, to win the Stanley Cup. Yeah.
31:31
W- where would you be looking at right now for a team to win it all if somebody wants a ticket to just have in their pocket for this season that you think has some good value on right now?
31:39
So, so it's, it's funny you ask me that, uh, Kelly.
31:41
And a- actually, as a guy that m- mostly follows the NHL during this time, I, I'm not afraid to dabble in some NBA plays, uh, here and there, uh, as well, which actually have, have gone decently well.
31:51
Uh, for me, sometimes it's good to not be too bogged down by info, right? You just- Yeah...
31:54
jump in as somebody that casually follows, and you're like, "Yeah, this looks like a good play," and you don't overthink it a little bit too much. So there's something to be said for that.
32:00
But in terms of the cup futures, I actually placed a cup future bet earlier this week, uh, really just based on number than anything else. But I found a 35 to one on the Washington Capitals. Wow.
32:10
Now, this, this team has taken a lot of people, uh, by surprise, myself included, guys. I had them as not a playoff team this year, and they've slowly made a believer out of me. So I get it.
32:20
There's a lot of better teams, I think, on paper that you could say, yeah, they should beat Washington in a, you know, best-of-seven type series. But this is strictly a play on the number.
32:28
As a team that's leading the Metropolitan division right now, and we're getting 35 to one on a team that I believe will certainly be a playoff team and might even have home ice advantage in the first round.
32:37
So that's where I'm going. Uh, guys, I, I think if you're looking in that, you know, closer to the top tier, uh, I do think the Minnesota Wild are interesting to me. That was my pick, Jake. Yeah.
32:46
That's who I was gonna tell you. Well, well- Minnesota. Yeah, exactly. And I, I think your reasoning for it would probably be how well they defend. Yes.
32:54
They're getting good goaltending from Philip Gustafson, and they've been doing it with guys on the shelf. Like Mats Zuccarello's been hurt for a couple weeks, he's still on injured reserve.
33:01
Joel Eriksson Ek, who's one of the better two-way players in the league, is hurt right now as well, and it doesn't seem like they've, uh, missed a beat. So I'm with you on Minnesota there.
33:09
18 to one right now on the Minnesota Wild, who have the fewest expected goals against in the NHL, and one of the top- Like-... expected goals for. So Minnesota, a very underrated team in the market.
33:20
All right, Jake, before we let you go, give us another best bet that you're looking at for tonight's busy schedule. Yeah, it's tough to narrow it down, guys, because I, I could go right back to Washington.
33:28
I just sung their praises in the futures market. I don't mind them tonight on the puck line against the Columbus Blue Jackets. I still don't think they're getting enough respect, uh, in the markets.
33:36
We talked about the Devils. I think we agree on that one. I like the Avs on the puck line as well.
33:40
It feels like Colorado is really starting to get this thing turned into gear, and they, they're just gonna be too much for Utah tonight, especially at Ball Arena, where they historically play well.
33:49
Uh, and I don't mind the Montreal Canadiens as a very slight home dog. I, I'm seeing some signs of life from this team lately.
33:56
Pittsburgh is playing a little bit better, uh, but getting a little bit of plus money with Montreal as the home dog, and I might have to fire up the Patrick Laine goal prop and shot prop as well.
34:05
Ever since he's come back, he's, he's given Montreal a bit of a spark offensively. Real quick, Jake, we got about 30 seconds left or so. VGK takes on Winnipeg tonight. The Jets are coming off a route of Boston.
34:15
It was eight to one, but forget about the score. There were so many fights in that game that- Yeah...
34:20
I find it hard to see Winnipeg come into tonight with the same intensity off of that brawl that happened, uh, i- in Boston. What do you think about maybe fading Winnipeg tonight? Yeah, I don't mind that.
34:31
I, I don't love the Jets, uh, at this price against what I believe is a very good Vegas team. Now, the thing about Vegas is they tend to play much better at home than on the road.
34:39
So being on the road, yeah, maybe it hurts them a little bit, but it doesn't mean that they can't go in there and, and win this game in hostile territory in, like you mentioned, kind of an exhausting game for Winnipeg in, in the last one.
34:49
And now you gotta face a, a team that will give you absolutely nothing in Vegas. Vegas defends really, really well. I, I, I kind of like this one to be low scoring, guys.
34:57
I feel like it could be tight, you know, playoff style. Hmm. A lot of checking, so maybe the under six in this one for me. Jake, great stuff. He's Jake Hahn from Sirius XM.
35:05
And boy, that game between the Jets and the Bruins, it was like the old saying, "I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out." [laughs] He's Kelly Hvidlen. I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil.
35:13
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Grab this deal at vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. I gave out my national championship play and filled out my bracket in the College Football Betting Guide.
36:34
I'm Scott Satenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Bidlin. This is a numbers game here on VSIN, the sports betting network. Joining us now on the progressive guest line is Pete Fiutak from College Football News.
36:45
And Pete, before we get into the college football playoffs, we got Army Navy coming up here this weekend, and we always say bet the unders in the Army Navy game.
36:55
But I think the market is starting to buy in and adjust accordingly. When you look at this game, how do you see it playing out? Are you on the unders as well? I know you're not supposed to do this.
37:08
I know, you know, you're supposed to be analytical. You're supposed to take all the data here that says you're right, that you have passing games. Both teams can throw it a little bit.
37:17
They're gonna be- there's gonna be a little more offense than usual. Army has the ability to potentially even cover the spread all by itself if it, if it goes off. So, uh, yeah, the going over makes a whole lot of sense.
37:29
This defies logic and reason. We know how it goes. [laughs] It's almost like an NFL game because they're, the, the, the, uh, the possessions are so limited.
37:37
There's only just a few, you know, times each each team gets it 'cause they're gonna go on these nine-minute drives each. Uh, I think Army wins relatively easily.
37:46
Again, that kind of defies logic and reason as well, because this rivalry kind of goes above and beyond that. Uh, but I am the never screw with the streak guy.
37:55
[laughs] If you're, if, if we're talking, I, I think it's something crazy like nine years that it's gone under or hasn't hit 39. Just if it goes over, tip your cap and move on.
38:08
But I think you go over on this until, uh, these, uh, uh, Military Academy versus Military Academy games go off. 'Cause this year they, against Air Force, they didn't. So I would still stick with the under.
38:19
And the game is in Landover, so in case people don't realize where the game is being played here, it is in Landover, Maryland this year.
38:26
So I guess a pseudo home environment for Navy, although we, you know, both teams and both, uh, academies will be well represented.
38:34
Uh, when you look at these bowl games, Pete, not the college football playoffs, just the generic bowl games that we're gonna see being played starting here on the, uh, 17th, how do you handicap these games and how do you assess the teams from whether it's an opt out, uh, angle or just a motivational angle?
38:52
Yeah, first of all, it's College Football Playoff. There's no S. Ah. [laughs] Heaven forbid you get the, you get, you get a, you get a stern email- It's like the Stanley Cup Final, not the Stanley Cup Finals...
39:01
exactly, or the Open or something- [laughs]... or the Ohio State. It, or otherwise you'll get an email or a text or something saying, "We prefer that it's-" [laughs] I've been on the business end of one of those.
39:11
Uh, it, it's, it's awful. This is, this bowl g- I, I, I don't know how, other way to put it but crudely, this bowl season's gonna suck so bad- [laughs]... because they are just guys in uniforms.
39:24
There's, y- there's nobody left. I mean, 'cause everyone's in the playoff, it's gonna stay. And even the playoff you've got guys, you know, who are, are kind of like, "Well, I'm gonna transfer after the season."
39:34
And like Kelly D- Kenny Dillingham of Arizona State's like, "Well, you know, don't play in this. You don't wanna get hurt, you know?" And it's the playoff, you know? What are you doing?
39:41
So the only way to kind of handicap this is one, just assume i- if you just go, keep going with the underdog all the way across the board, you're probably gonna be okay because we don't know what's coming out of that tunnel.
39:55
The second way to look at this is like if it's NFL pre-season- Hmm...
39:58
where if you can kind of figure out, okay, this coaching staff's gonna play its starters an extra quarter or something like that, then you kind of know how this works.
40:08
Especially right now, we're a little past it already, but o- over the first week if you could've figured out that, you know what?
40:15
This team's probably gonna lose a bunch of its players to opt outs, like Texas A&M's probably gonna lose half its team by the time this, these, this, this thing starts, and the line hasn't jumped yet.
40:24
To me, the easiest pick of this board, because what do we know, the teams who do we know is gonna show up? Army versus Marshall.
40:31
And it started off at I think seven and a half, and then all of a sudden it, people figured out, "Wait a minute, Marshall lost its coach. Marshall lost a bunch of its players. Everyone's kind of in a portal.
40:42
And Army's Army. You know no one's opting out Army." Mm-hmm. Uh, and so as is, even if it was a straight up game, I liked Army minus seven and a half. Now you're doing that and it jumped. What'd it do?
40:53
I think it's now at 13 and a half last I checked- 15 and a half now. 15 and a half. Yeah, exactly. Wow. Uh, because again, Marshall doesn't have anybody left- Mm...
41:00
and it's Army and they're, you know, gonna be s- you know, coming off a Navy where they're still kind of full force. So, uh, so games like that you have to kind of figure out.
41:08
The only other one on here so far, I mean, that really kind of looks like it might be sort of, uh, legitimate to the regular season is the Alamo Bowl because for some crazy reason- [laughs]...
41:19
uh, Coach Prime's guys are still playing. I mean, Travis Hunt said- Do you believe that though, Pete? Do you think by the time we get there it's gonna happen? 'Cause I don't. I don't believe it. How do you... Yeah.
41:29
I- it's a, i- it's a little bit different when you are the coach's son and you're always- Mm-hmm... already have generational wealth.
41:35
And like remember, uh, when Andrew Luck kept playing college football when, you know, he didn't really need the money? Yep. The Mannings always played because they didn't, they stuck around because it was more fun.
41:45
They didn't need, you know, they weren't worried about their, you know, their, you know, how their future was gonna be.
41:50
I, I kind of think a little bit, but remember also that Deion Sanders' Jackson State teams with Shedeur, with Travis, they gacked twice at Jackson State.
42:00
You know, remember they got their doors blown off by South Carolina State in the Celebration Bowl a few years ago, and they lost a heartbreaker a couple years ago.
42:07
And so this is a chance for these guys to win a bowl game- Hmm. Fair... which they've never done, you know? So there might be a little bit something to that.
42:14
And BYU, for the most part- Uh, is gonna be more intact than most other teams. Yeah, Pete, I, I, I believe I caught something on Cam Ward too, making it sound like he was gonna try to play.
42:25
I mean, do you think this is just special situations with these schools specifically this year, or is this a trend we could see continue if w- with teams that are not in the playoff?
42:33
'Cause it's blowing my mind these guys would actually go out there and play in these games. Uh, maybe it's NIL money. Maybe there's a little extra part of the deal. Hmm.
42:40
Maybe it's to showcase yourself to bump yourself up, uh, another five or 10 spots in the, uh, the NFL draft. But you're right, I mean, these guys shouldn't be playing at all.
42:49
I- it's, especially in this now, 'cause when you're... We're really gonna see more than ever just how much of a, these are just exhibitions as opposed to, you know, anything truly meaningful in the world.
42:59
Especially when you've got a college football playoff that's right in the mix of all this, that's gonna be so interesting. Pete, let's talk college football playoffs. Uh, playoff. Excuse me. I don't wanna get the email.
43:10
Yeah, playoff. I, you and I have talked before about the path to the championship- Yep... and how perhaps winning your conference title game is not necessarily beneficial to you. Sure, we have...
43:20
You get the bye and, and you're in the quarterfinal. That's cool, but the path sometimes can be easier.
43:26
I mean, I look at a program like Texas or I, I look at some other teams that ha- that have to play in that first round, and to me, it just seems like the path is wide open for those teams that didn't win their conference title.
43:38
I was gonna say, I thought you were g- I, I heard your, your initial thing. I was gonna guess you were gonna go with Penn State and I was gonna have to chastise you about this. You're... So Texas is your call? Yes. Okay.
43:47
Uh, it... That's, they're not b- It's not a bad call because they've got the guys who... I mean, look, after all of this, it's gonna be Ohio State/Georgia probably- [laughs]... or Ohio State/Notre Dame.
43:57
I mean, Ohio State's the best team. It just is. And if it's not, that means they gagged. Um, so start with, you know, you know, who, who has the talent? But you're right. I mean, part of it is, you know, look, who's...
44:09
Let... You know, we're all among friends here, and you're not Gil, so I'm not gonna get yelled at here for this. [laughs] But if you get Boise State, you know, of course that's... You want that. Yep.
44:18
If you want, uh, uh, Boise State, Arizona State, honestly Clemson. And to your point, can you get out of your first round? Clemson, Texas is gonna wipe them up. Indiana's scary for Notre Dame.
44:29
I, none of my Notre Dame people wanna believe me on this, 'cause Notre Dame is talented enough to actually get to the national championship. I don't think they can win it. Uh, but India- these teams with tempo.
44:38
I'm not counting out SMU. Uh, I don't think- Hmm... they're that great. I don't think they really deserve to be in this, but neither did Alabama, so someone had to be in. Uh, but I...
44:49
SMU, because of the way they play and the tempo against Penn State, because of Indiana and the way they play, those are dangerous games where on the right day, I think they can win. I don't think Clemson can beat Texas.
44:58
So to your point, you gotta be in it to win it. You gotta keep moving. So at least Texas is gonna survive and advance, I think, in this.
45:04
And then Texas over Arizona State, and then they match up with Oregon in the semis, or maybe it's Ohio State in the semis. And it- But you're, you're missing the part of this where it's Texas, so it's gonna blow it.
45:14
Yeah. [laughs] That's true.
45:17
Um, so it- Although I will say, if Georgia gets to face SMU in a semifinal game, I mean, I don't care who's at quarterback for Georgia, [laughs] it's gonna be, uh, a Georgia national championship picture.
45:26
Pete, appreciate the time and the conversation. Good luck with your Army-Navy bets this weekend. Have a good one, guys. Have a nice one. There he is, Pete Fiutak from College Football News.
45:34
And, you know, it's hard to go against the trends, Kelly, of betting an Army-Navy under, because, like, that's the first way you wanna look. It, it's 15 and one, right?
45:43
Service Academy unders- Yeah, yeah, that's what I mean... is where you wanna look. But I will say, and Pete did mention it, these two teams this year are playing differently than they have in the past.
45:53
Specifically Army, they have a passing game, and the number just might be low enough to think, "Ooh, this year could go over." That was my Tony Romo impression by the way.
46:04
Yeah, it's, it's also what we've thought for the past 16 years. Yeah. [laughs] It's so low. How can it not go over? He's Kelly Midlin. I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil.
46:11
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