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Dec 13, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 13, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 13, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:36
Coming to you from the Circa sports book in downtown Las Vegas, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Vidlin. This is a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:46
Week 15 of the NFL season got off to an exciting start. Thrilling. [laughs] And I s- I say that, you know, facetiously. Ah, man. A 12-6 win for the Rams over the 49ers.
0:57
Congratulations to all of those who cashed the no touchdown scorer at 225/1 at Circa sports book. I don't know a single winner, though I, I haven't seen Jeff Benson tweet anything out about a winner.
1:10
Have you seen anybody tweet- No-... a, a winner?... I have not. No? I don't even know what I would've guessed the odds on that were. 200- 225/1. All right...
1:16
yeah, it, yeah, it was less at other sports books, but Jeff had tweeted out that it was, uh, 225/1 here at Circa for the no touchdown scorer last night.
1:23
And apologies for all of you that were relying on any players in week one of your fantasy playoffs. I, for one, went against Cooper Kupp, who put up a big zero, so I have a big smile on my face this morning.
1:33
[laughs] But another reason is because our best bets cashed last night. We gave out Colby Parkinson over eight and a half receiving yards. He finished with two catches for 21 yards.
1:46
That's the second most receiving yards on the Rams last night. [laughs] I, I, I, I was looking for him on the box score today. I'm like, "Where's he at?" I'm like, "Oh, because- All the way at the top...
1:54
I went too far down, Scott. Yeah, I went too far down." All the way at the top, yeah. Puka led the way with the, uh, 97 yards, but Colby Parkinson was the second leading receiver on the Rams with [laughs] 21 yards.
2:05
And wh- when did he get his first catch? Was it the fourth quarter? Yeah, it was on- but remember, when we handicapped this, we talked about how in each of the last four games he had only one reception. Yep.
2:14
But each of those four games he had gone over the eight and a half yards. His one catch that he had on a designed play action rollout went for seven yards. And Scott texted me that last night.
2:24
I'm like, "Yeah, this is gonna turn her off." [laughs] I said, "This is such a bad beat.
2:27
We lost by one and a half yards," but then he got the catch on the crucial possession at the end of the game to get a first down and secure the victory for the Rams.
2:35
I found myself questioning a lot of things last night about both teams and their play calling. Again, no touchdowns were scored.
2:42
Yes, it was wet and rainy, but the conditions really weren't that bad that the offenses should've, should've been this inept last night. Brock Purdy certainly had a bad performance.
2:53
I wondered if it was either the familiarity between both of these teams and both of these coaches, or the fact that on a short week of preparation, the game plan was simplified.
3:02
And I think it's a combination of both, and it's something that we really should be focusing in on when we have these match-ups as we progress throughout the NFL season and eventually into the post-season, is familiarity between coaching staffs and familiarity between teams.
3:17
Yeah, it's, uh, it's interesting you bring that up 'cause I thought the, I thought the first half the teams looked like... I thought it was pretty apparent that it looked like the weather was worse, th- way- Mm...
3:27
worse than they expected, right? It maybe wasn't terrible, but it was worse than they expected, and they were having trouble dealing with that.
3:33
Still amazes me today in the, in, in today's NFL that with all the communication equipment they have, with all the equipment they have on standby like cleats and gloves and everything, sometimes still just need a halftime to reset- Yeah...
3:44
'cause it was... I mean, Stafford, Stafford's first half, four for, four of 12 for 23 yards. Second half, 12 of 15 for 137. Much better. So yeah, much better, and conditions got better. Like you're talking- Mm...
3:55
about weather wasn't nearly as bad in the second half. For the 49ers, we cashed the George Kittle receiving yards over 59 and a half, barely, in one of the bets that I felt should've never been a sweat because- Yeah...
4:06
[laughs] he had a monster first half, and then all of a sudden we were waiting for one catch just to get him over, which he did. He finished with 61 yards last night for the 49ers.
4:15
Speaking of the 49ers, the six points that they scored, the second lowest under Kyle Shanahan. The first lowest, three points in his very first game as a head coach. Wow, that's a good note.
4:27
So this is the lowest amount of points that they have scored since his very first game as a head coach, and I think we all can just accept that the season is gone. It is over now for the San Francisco 49ers.
4:39
They will regroup and come back stronger in 2025. But for the Los Angeles Rams, everything is right in front of them. Yesterday we talked about their odds to win the NFC West. It was at plus 160.
4:50
Well, after the win last night, they are now minus 115, which makes a lot of sense. Because as we mentioned yesterday, they are in control of their own path to win this division.
5:01
Because they have that win over the Seahawks, all they have to do is go into that final week with one loss behind Seattle, and if they win that game, it's an NFC West championship game.
5:12
If Seattle wins, they're division champs. If the Rams win, they are division champs. So everything ahead of the Rams right now and their schedule, let's just be honest here.
5:22
The remaining games for LA, the Jets and Cardinals, I'm, I'm excluding that Seattle game, the final game of the season. Mm. But they're fav- they're gonna be favored in both games- Yeah... Jets and Cardinals.
5:33
And then the Seahawks, they're dogs coming up on Sunday night against the Packers, and then they'll be home underdogs against the Vikings next week before going to the Bears for an, a get right game possibly, even though the Bears could still be fighting, uh, just a little pride at the end of the season, before facing the Rams.
5:51
There is a great chance for that game, the final game of the regular season, to actually not be for the NFC West title if the, if, if- The Seahawks lose to both the Packers and the Vikings.
6:02
Yeah, that's, uh, just ch- checking lines real quick for next week. So you got Seahawks catching two and a half on the look-ahead against Minnesota. Mm-hmm.
6:09
Rams, Jets, I do not see for some- I mean, the Jets take money every week, but we know it's just ridiculous. Like, they, they've been favored in nine games this year- Right. Yeah... for some reason. I know, right?
6:18
[laughs] It- it's, it's just every week. Rams, Rams three-point favorites, two and a half, three- Yeah... uh, on the road against the Jets. And that, and that makes a lot of sense. Mm-hmm.
6:24
And we're gonna be joined by Steve Fezzik, two-time SuperContest winner, professional bettor, coming up in our second hour, and I'm gonna ask him about these future lines.
6:31
As he always does with Gil, he gives out some plays for the upcoming weeks. Yep. And we know that the Jets take money, because they have all season. I've been watching the Jets... I'm a Jets fan.
6:40
I've been watching them take money all season, and it makes absolutely no sense why they flip from short dogs to short favorites, and yet they keep on losing these games.
6:49
So I'm curious, if we wait on the Rams-Jets game, do we actually get a better line on the Rams? Mm-hmm. I'll ask that of Steve Fezzik coming up a little later on in the program.
6:59
Once again, I'm Scott Seidenberg alongside Kelly Bidlin, in for Gil here on A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You can hit me up on Twitter @scottsonair.
7:08
Uh, we'll get into some, uh, soccer coming up a little later on in the program as well. We got- Paul Carr on a heater, man. Yeah, he's, uh, killed Champions League this week. We're gonna bring him on.
7:16
We'll talk Premier League with him, and then, like you said, we got Steve, uh, joining us in the second hour. Uh, yeah, I did wanna ask you one question. These, these things get lost with a, with a team that wins.
7:26
Mm-hmm. What do you feel about McVay and his... I mean, we all know McVay loves field goals. Yeah.
7:30
But oh boy, I think almo- I think every one of those fourth downs that they settled for a field goal- They could've gone for it... last night, I woulda gone for it. Yeah. Uh, th- well, you also have to...
7:39
Whenever you talk about fourth down plays and aggression and should you go for it on fourth downs, you have to look at the third down plays as well. Yep.
7:46
Because what's so important, and people forget this, if your strategy, like Dan Campbell, is to go for it on fourth and short all the time, your third down play calling is different.
7:54
So, uh, Ben Johnson, for the Lions, knows, "Hey, I can call a certain play on third down, because if we're within one to two yards, we're gonna go for it on fourth down." McVay's calling the game.
8:04
I don't know how he's calling the game. Last night, it didn't look like the Rams. It just didn't. Mm-hmm. And, and that's why I question, was it a short week of preparation?
8:11
But I gave out the numbers yesterday, and I'll repeat them again, and I'll update it now with the ATS win for the Rams last night. But Sean McVay on short rest, 15-6-1 against the spread.
8:22
He thrives on short rest, so it can't just be a dumbed down play calling sheet or, or, you know, uh, just a simplified game plan because of the short week.
8:33
Maybe it was because of how familiar him and Kyle Shanahan are with each other's playbooks and the play calling style. It could have been the, you know, maybe they just saw something within the- That's a good point.
8:43
Yeah. They saw something within the defensive line of the 49ers, and they said, "Hey, we're gonna be able to run on this team all game. So why... Let, let's just not expose ourselves to any mistakes.
8:53
We don't want Stafford throwing an interception," because the worst thing you can do in a game that you feel you have control in is up the variables. Mm. Right?
9:03
Up the opportunity for you to allow the other team back in the game. I think Sean McVay knew, looking at that 49ers team last night, that they were gonna win the game and that they could be in control the entire game.
9:14
And the worst thing they could do is h- have Stafford throw an interception, turn the football over, and give the 49ers some life.
9:20
If they just ran the ball, ran the ball, and ran the ball, they were gonna be able to move it downfield. Unfortunately, they settled for field goals- Yeah...
9:27
but it didn't matter last night, because Brock Purdy was, was not good. They, uh, uh, the, the Niners needed the rain to continue apparently- [laughs]...
9:33
'cause they, they looked like the better team when it was pouring out there. As soon as it stopped, it completely flipped. Absolutely. So, uh, that kicked off week 15 of the NFL season.
9:42
We got a full slate of games coming up on Sunday and then a double header on Monday Night Football. So I wanted to quickly look at the market rundown and see if... where we've had some movement from Thursday into Friday.
9:54
Obviously, more injury reports come out on Thursday, practice situations get clarified.
9:58
I know for the Bucs, Bucky Irving did not practice once again, which I, I don't think that they do the same type of, uh, what's the good word I'm looking for? Chicanery- [laughs] That's a good one...
10:08
that, that they did last week when Bucky Irving, uh, w- did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, practiced on Friday, and then they said, "You know what? He's gonna be good to go." What'd he get?
10:18
Three carries for five yards- Right. Yeah... and he didn't play the rest of the game. So I don't think they pull that, again, the great word, chicanery- [laughs]... again, uh, with Todd Bowles and the Bucs.
10:28
I think that if Bucky Irving is on this injury report, he's not gonna play. Yeah, it's a little scary. Uh, Mike Evans, uh, probably a bigger deal out there for, for the Buccaneers.
10:36
I'm on that side this week, so that'll be a little bit of a sweat. But, you know, Chargers, they, we, we, we got a banged up Justin Herbert it sounds like, too, and I, I mean, I have a feeling he's gonna go.
10:45
He did practice yesterday- Mm-hmm... Scott, but that is... I mean, a, a hobbled quarterback is never great to have out there. So we'll see how much that ends up affecting him. Yeah.
10:53
We know George Pickens likely to miss another game. Uh, Kenneth Walker's gonna be interesting for Seattle. Now, that game's Sunday night, so they have more time.
11:00
But all indications were earlier in the week that this was gonna be Kenneth Walker returning- Yeah... for the Packers.
11:06
Now, does Zach Charbonnet having a phenomenal game last week kind of allow Seattle to take a step back with Kenneth Walker? I don't think they can afford to. I don't think so either. Yeah. I don't know about you.
11:15
I like how you put it, because I was certainly surprised that Charbonnet looked that good last week. I don't really think that's the same... That wasn't the same guy I've seen basically his whole career so far.
11:24
Um, and Kenneth Walker, uh, he's... I mean, I, I don't think we talk about the Seattle team enough, but he is an underrated, under the radar good back in the NFL. Mm-hmm.
11:33
And, uh, having him healthy out there would be, be huge, I think. Oh, absolutely. So we're gonna continue to look at the NFL week 15 schedule.
11:40
I have some interesting trends when it comes to these games, including one that, Kelly, you're gonna say makes absolutely no sense. Right.
11:49
[laughs] Because it contradicts everything that you would think heading into a specific marquee matchup for this Sunday's games. I'll give you that trend coming up next. I'm Scott Seidenberg. He's Kelly Bidlin.
12:01
We're in for Gil. Well, I'm in for Gil. He's always here. It's A Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:29
Back here on A Numbers Game, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Biblin here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:35
Paul Carr will join us in about 15 or so minutes from now to give us his best plays for the upcoming soccer weekend.
12:42
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12:56
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13:05
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13:16
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. I talked about the Giants' ineptitude when it comes to their red zone practice yesterday, which is fascinating.
13:28
Again, 0 of 17 on red zone passes yesterday. Line right now, 16.5, the Ravens are laying at the New York Giants, total of 42.5. I, I like the under.
13:40
I lean towards the Giants, but I'm, I'm, I'm not gonna bet it because I just can't. Yeah. I can't trust it. But here's what I can trust, Derrick Henry.
13:50
Kelly, I'm, I'm all over Derrick Henry props in this game, but specifically his longest rush prop. This is where I wanna focus in on. You can find his longest rush prop at 20.5 yards.
14:03
Some- it might be more if it's juiced and people have bet into this market, [clears throat] maybe me. [laughs] I'm not saying I move lines, Kelly.
14:12
[laughs] I'm just saying, like, uh, that, that, that there's been bets placed. Um, but 20.5 is, is a line that I'm seeing out there. And Derrick Henry this season has forced the third-most missed tackles in the NFL.
14:25
He's also gained the most yards after those missed tackles out of any running back in the NFL. It ma- He's tough to tackle. It makes sense. Yeah. It makes sense. He looks like he's tough to tackle. Yeah.
14:35
You know, Scott, you're- I, I wouldn't stand in front of him. [laughs] The New York Football Giants, meanwhile, have allowed the second-most yards in the NFL after missed tackles.
14:45
They're right around 12th or 13th in missed tackle rate, so it's not like they're one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL, but as it gets colder later in the year, motivation lacks.
14:57
I don't know how many guys are gonna wanna stand in front of Derrick Henry and take him down. But anyway, they allow the second-most yards in the NFL after missed tackles.
15:05
So I wanna look at Derrick Henry, not his overall rushing prop, which he'll probably still go over, but it's juiced because they're a 16.5-point favorite against a bad Giants team, but his longest rush.
15:17
He's had 29 carries this year of 10 or more yards. That's an average of 2.2 per game, a 12% rate, which means 12% of his carries go for double-digit yards. The Giants defense, meanwhile,
15:31
has allowed the third-most double-digit runs in the NFL, average of 4.15 10-yard runs per game, and a 14% rate of double-digit runs. So 14% of opponents' carries are going for double digits against the Giants.
15:49
And if you're asking, "Well, what's the game log look like? How many times has Derrick Henry gone over this number?" In 10 of 13 games this year- Wow... he has had a rush of over 20 yards.
15:59
In one game he had a rush with 19 yards, so that would've been a bad beat for you. Yeah, yeah.
16:03
But let's say you got the prop at 19, I mean, that's 11 of 13 games this year, but still, 10 of 13 games he's going for 20 or more. I feel pretty good about Derrick Henry longest rush over 20.5 yards. Yeah, I like it.
16:14
I, I, always like, always like kind of reading into it when we go through numbers like this and it's like, you know what I took out of that, Scott? Man, these, uh, these Giants linebackers suck.
16:21
[laughs] Like, they must suck. Like, 'cause you talked- They have a really, they have a really good pass rush. Right. Yeah. They just can't defend the run.
16:27
I mean, 'cause you talked about the missed tackle rate- Mm-hmm... and all that, so it's, okay, so it's getting cleaned up on the back end somewhere, but, uh, those initial tackles are not getting home. Yeah. Yeah.
16:36
A- and if you're interested, if you, if you're somebody that plays, like, defensive props, you could look at the Giants' secondary and look at their tackles.
16:42
Because if you think about it, who's gonna get the tackles when Derrick Henry- Right... breaks through the line? Yeah. It's not gonna be the defensive lineman, it's not Dexter Lawrence, it's not Brian Burns.
16:51
It's gonna be those guys in the secondary that are gonna have to clean up- Yeah... those missed tackles. Safeties coming down. Yep.
16:55
So that could be a- an angle to look at if you are a pl- someone that plays defensive props at a sportsbook that does offer those tackle props. Do you ever get involved in the, with those?
17:04
I do get involved with sack props. Okay. Okay. Because, and there was one that I played this year actually on Brian Burns. I rarely do. That's why I bring it up. I played one on Brian Burns of the Giants.
17:12
It was the game against Carolina, and to me that was like, you know, we talk about the revenge spots. This was a revenge spot for Brian Burns. Remember, Carolina didn't wanna give him- Right... the long-term contract.
17:21
They trade him to the Giants for nothing. The Giants pay him, and it was the second play of the game he got a sack on Bryce Young. [laughs] Took a feeling.
17:28
So it w- A- a- and the line was only, it was over a quarter of a sack. It wasn't even over a half a sack. So all he had to do was get a half a sack and you would cash that bet.
17:37
And people are asking if you don't know what a half a sack is. It's like, if you and your teammate meet at the quarterback, y- you're both gonna get credited for a half a sack there.
17:44
So, uh, that happened on the second play of the game. So that, I do get involved in sack props, not so much tackles props. 'Cause you can get a bad beat on tackles props, I think. Oh, totally.
17:53
I'm trying to look up right now, too. I, I don't see any of the Giants safeties listed, uh, under the tackles props for [laughs] Retractions.
17:58
It's just so bad that p- the, the book- sportsbooks probably getting cleaned up on these props.
18:02
[laughs] Uh, the other prop I like in this game, sticking with the Ravens rushing attack, kind of a similar theme, but their backup running back, Justice Hill. Uh, his prop, it was at 12.5 yards.
18:12
It has gone up to 14.5 yards. I still like it at 14.5 yards. If you look at the amount of carries he gets this year, the bulk of his yardage comes from when the Ravens are leading.
18:22
They're 16.5-point favorites in this game. They're going to be leading.
18:27
And so when Derrick Henry already has 200 yards and two touchdowns against the New York Giants, Justice Hill will get some carries there in the second half. So I like Justice Hill over 14 and a half rushing yards.
18:38
Like it. I like it. Co-sign? Yeah. All right. We co-sign on that. But that was, that was when we were, we were talking about it a little bit during the break.
18:43
Man, it feels like Justice Hill gets way more run than he actually does. Well, 'cause he does catch the football a lot. Right. Yeah.
18:48
But again, in a game where they're 16 and a half point favorites, I don't ca- he's not gonna get a lot of receiving yards. Mm-hmm.
18:53
I don't think he's gonna be in there on passing situations, 'cause we expect the Ravens to dominate the Giants in this game. Yeah.
18:59
So you know what's interesting about this game as well is you look at the situation that the Ravens are in coming off their bye as an away favorite, and that's normally been a historic trend that people talk about, away favorites after the bye.
19:13
So I went and I looked up since 2012, again, we go back to that year, how, how do these teams do? Well, it's actually not that great. It's not a good ATS number aga- against, uh, as an away favorite.
19:26
It's not great as a double-digit favorite. Two and four ATS as a double-digit road favorite after the bye. What's interesting though is if you look at the unders for these big favorites after byes,
19:42
five and one to the under. If you look at overall away favorites after a bye, 16 and nine to the under. And what if those teams are coming off of a loss like the Ravens are?
19:55
Well, you would think, again, kind of like I mentioned with the Buffalo Bills last segment, the defensive intensity picks up. Mm-hmm. 23 and 10 to the under with the opponent scoring an average of 16 points per game.
20:07
Now, the Giants team total is listed at 12 and a half in this game. Th- this al- and it also isn't like, it's not a situation where the Ravens are... Like, the Ravens have something to play for still too. Exactly.
20:16
You know what I mean? Exactly. It's not like they're locked into a playoff spot. I ca- I don't think I can bet the Giants team total under because it's so low.
20:23
Like, you can almost, you could backdoor your way into scoring 13 points in the NFL. R- right, yes, absolutely. But I do like the under 42 and a half in this game because I don't trust the Giants to score.
20:32
Yeah, I do too. And I think the Ravens are just gonna run, run, run, run, run. And so I could see this being, like, one of those, h- I mean, would it surprise you if this was a 20, 20, 27-six final? No, not at all.
20:44
Not at all. Even 31-10? Well, that would be borderline cashing the over 'cause it's 42 and a half. I don't wanna go 41. But I, I, I lean towards the under because one team's gonna score, the other team's not.
20:55
So under 42 and a half between the Ravens and the Giants.
20:59
You know, there's another away favorite that's coming off of the bye, and they're actually a pretty big favorite as well, and that's the Washington Commanders, who are on the road at the New Orleans Saints.
21:10
And this line has gone up with the quarterback news. It's gonna be Jake Haener at quarterback, not Derek Carr. I know there are conflicting reports.
21:17
I think ESPN said, "If Carr can't go," but NFL Media reporting that it will be Jake Haener making his first career start in this game.
21:24
Washington moves from a six and a half point favorite to a seven and a half point favorite, which I, it, it makes me believe that obviously part of that six and a half was Derek Carr not playing, 'cause Derek Carr is not, it's not one point to the line.
21:38
It's a lot more than one point movement on the line for Derek Carr not playing in this game. But I do think that- Yeah... you know, once it gets officially announced, obviously more money comes in on Washington.
21:48
It moves it an extra point from six and a half to seven and a half. Are you concerned laying it this many points with Washington on the road? Oh, man, great question.
21:58
I, I, you tied them into a teaser with the Rams from last night, but I, I love them as a teaser leg this week. So- Oh, from seven and a half down to one and a half, for sure. Yeah.
22:06
Yeah, laying the full seven and a half, it's a great question. It's definitely still the pl- it's definitely still the side I would lean to. Might end up being a, a Circa Millions play for me this week- Hmm...
22:14
just 'cause of a kind of a lack of- Well, contest line, contest line, though, is gonna be less, actually. Seven and a half. It is seven and a half. Seven... Oh, it is seven and a half? Okay. Yeah, it came out yesterday.
22:20
Yeah, I wish it was seven. Well, the West Gate had six and a half in their Super Contest- Oh, really?... 'cause th- their lines come out a day earlier. Oh, wow, okay.
22:26
So it's in, yeah, uh, they come out on Wednesday, Circa comes out on Thursday. So obviously check your contest lines. I, but to answer your question, no, I'm not overly concerned with this guy.
22:34
I, I think this Commanders team has, has come back down a, a little bit more towards league average- Mm-hmm... here over the past few weeks.
22:40
But this Saints team, without Derek Carr, with the injuries that they have, I think you're talking about a bottom five team in the NFL right now. Oh, for sure.
22:47
A- and we saw that in the games where Spencer Rattler started. Right. Now, Haener's better than Rattler, but we still see the offense is not the same without Derek Carr.
22:54
And yes, I do agree, seven and a half going down to one and a half on the six-point teaser. Maybe pair it up with the, uh, Buffalo Bills up from two and a half to eight and a half.
23:03
Let's get those soccer plays coming up next with Paul Carr. I'm Scott Seidenberg, he's Kelly Bidlin. It's a Numbers Game here on VSiN. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:22
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23:51
Back here on A Numbers Game, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil here on VSiN, the sports betting network. And joining me now in studio is two-time Super Contest winner. He is Mr.
24:02
Steve Fezzik, who you often see alongside Gil here on A Numbers Game in his normal Friday segment. Fezz, I feel it's like the ultimate crossover, as one of our, uh, listeners tweeted at me.
24:11
Uh, it's like when a TV show crosses over characters. This is like you and I now crossing over from all the podcasts that we do every single week to now being here in for Gil. Throw Mama From the Train.
24:21
[laughs] Kriss Kross. Kriss Kross. Well, I talked about Army-Navy. Before we get into the NFL, uh, let's talk about the Army-Navy game real quick, 'cause I know that you're on the under. You tweeted that out.
24:30
You made no secrets about it. The whole, the whole world is on the under. 17 of the last 18 years, this game has gone under. I like Army laying the six and a half, but I actually think this game goes over.
24:41
I'm just afraid to bet the over because I, I'm going against the market. Yeah, and while you're going against, if you look back just the last 10 years- Mm-hmm...
24:50
uh, they haven't gotten past 38 points, and they've had overtime games.
24:54
And I think that at some point, I like fading t- trends that don't, that, that just happen by happenstance under a harvest moon when the Bengals are playing the Browns, and the, the temperature's below 50 degrees.
25:08
[laughs] This happens, it's just random noise. But here's an example where obviously both the, both these teams in chess terms run, they play an opening that's an inferior opening. It's a bad opening- Mm-hmm...
25:20
the option. It, it's like if everyone played the option, no one would score because you c- it, it, it's not the forward pass is optimal.
25:27
But because it's so quirky, it works when you play against Memphis or teams like that.
25:32
But when you have to play another team that's used to playing against this chess opening that sucks each and every day in practice, guess what?
25:39
It doesn't work, and so no one can capture the other team's king, so no one can score. So the under makes sense. Yeah, and like I said, 17 of the last 18 years have gone under. The- these have been one-score games.
25:50
Uh, eight of the last 10 years between these two teams have been decided by one score. Hey, six and a half is still one score, so I can, you know, I can cover the seven, and- Is seven and a half one score?
25:59
Seven and a half, oh, it could be, yeah. It's one possession. It's one possession. [laughs] It's actually two scores if you count the two-point conversion as a score.
26:06
Uh, but yes, the market has been dipping down here on the total 38 and a halves, uh, we're seeing across.
26:12
There's th- there's a 39, 38 and a half, so make sure you keep an eye on what the market is doing as we lead up to kickoff of Army-Navy coming up tomorrow.
26:19
Speaking of the market, Fezz, let's go to the NFL where we see a bad team. And, and what do we mean by bad team? I mean, the Carolina Panthers have three wins, okay? I actually don't consider them a bad team.
26:30
Their record is bad, but I don't think they're that bad. They've covered five straight games, and you could argue, as I have, they're playing better as of late in these past couple of games.
26:39
Look no further than the last three games that they lost after their bye, where they arguably could have won all three of those games.
26:46
Now they're two and a half to three-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, who have more wins than them, who have a bigger name brand than them, who some would say are a better football team than the Carolina Panthers, yet the Panthers are favored.
26:59
Is the market telling us the Panthers are the side? No, the market is telling you the Panth- the Panthers were the side. Mm. All right? So were. Explain.
27:08
Because on the look ahead line, the Panthers were plus one and a half. And then on the early week line, I give this out to my clients, Ca- Carolina minus 120. Okay. Readily available.
27:17
What's changed since Sunday night, Monday morning? Nothing. Nothing has changed. Well, maybe the injury, or, well, actually, probably bad, worse on Dallas with the injury news of DeMarvion Overshown being out. Yes.
27:28
So the news has gotten worse for Dallas. That's probably the only thing I can think of that has changed. Sure, fair enough. Um, but the bottom line is that now, like, like I used to run betting syndicates, all right?
27:39
I n- I know I'm Fe- Fezzik's the old guy, you know, get off his lawn. [laughs] Um, was lousy in the Visa Invitation. I did get eliminated. A- and largely true.
27:47
But the bottom line is, I can tell you, if you submitted a ticket, you said, "We got Carolina minus three, Fezz. I put that into our portfolio," you'd be fired. Mm.
27:55
You would, like, literally, like, like, "What, what am I paying you for?" You'd, like, like, like... The idea is you wanna do y- do your homework throughout the w- the week, the betting cycle, get the best of it.
28:04
We talk about Army-Navy. I'm fine if you wanna play over 37 at post. Fine. That's a, you know, but don't play over 39. Um, but like with Carolina, you gotta get a Carolina certainly at less than three.
28:14
So if you get a Carolina and get a minus two and a half, lay a dollar 10 still, I would, I would endorse that. Anything more, I think it's just become too expensive. So yeah.
28:21
So you would say, and, or if you played it early, obviously, then you accept playing Carolina. You mentioned minus 120. Money line's up to now minus 150, even minus 155. Would you play a baseball game?
28:31
Would you play the Cincinnati Reds- Mm-hmm... minus 155 knowing you could've played minus 120 earlier in the betting cycle? No, I, 'cause I- Rarely, right? Rarely. Yeah. I, I- Yeah... feel terrible about that. Yeah.
28:42
And, and I do it in hockey all the time sometimes. [laughs] Like, I feel... Like, I, I had the Devils last night at minus 155. I coulda had it at minus 135. Now, when something changes dramatically- Mm-hmm...
28:52
okay, that's different. Like, so like if you had gotten the weather report, like it was gonna pour- Mm, makes sense... cats and dogs in the second quarter, that's different.
28:59
Well, then, you could say, "I'll play under 47 and a half even though I could've played under 49," right? That's fine. You know, that's different.
29:04
And so looking at the market, there actually is still two and a halves out there that are available. Uh, slightly juiced, so minus 115, so you would say the line is, like, between two and a half to three.
29:15
Yeah, so a 2.75.
29:16
And, and it's, uh, no secret, like, like, I'm maniacal about these three-point spreads, and a big reason is, like, I, I ran a syndicate betting parlay cards, and you can go back and ask the sportsbook directors.
29:27
They'll all- Mm... confirm it. Joe Lupo hates me. Um, but, like, we loved the NFL three.
29:31
We loved it so much because even if it was a solid three, if you could play plus three and a half, if you can play plus three and a half to this day or minus two and a half, those are 55% bets. Mm. Either one, okay?
29:42
So, um, getting the best of a, of a three, especially if, if it moves to the other side of the three, and you can get, like, if you can lay two and a half on a game that's 3.15, or if you can get plus three and a half on a game that's mu- that's, that's 2.85.
29:53
What do I mean by 2.85? Like, I'd say this Carolina game right now, right around 2.75, right? Split two and a half to three on the odds screen. Makes sense.
30:01
Another game that's kinda similar if we look at the odds board is the Green Bay, Seattle Sunday night game, where earlier in the week it was Seattle plus three.
30:09
Now it's down to two and a half as we've seen money come in on the, uh, Seahawks, which has pushed Green Bay. I'm seeing here at Circa two and a half, minus two and a half, minus 115 on Green Bay.
30:21
So the pros don't always agree on things, okay? Mm. We have disagreement on games. So, like, early in the week, Right Angle Sports gave out the Packers minus two and a half, all right? And it went to three.
30:30
Now, on the look ahead lines, I gave out Seattle plus three. I did, that was one of the, my look ahead plays I gave here- Mm-hmm... with Gilly last Friday. So I was disappointed that that number had disappeared.
30:40
Thank you, Raz, for moving the number back to three, and I w- I, I just think they're completely wrong. I could be wrong. But I, like, in my power ratings, I have the Packers, um, two points better than Seattle.
30:51
So how, when the game is in the Pacific Northwest with the 12th man and a big home field, both these teams have big home fields, can Seattle possibly be catching a full field goal? It makes no sense.
31:03
I mean, you can talk about situational match-ups, whatever. It's just, it doesn't...
31:08
Even if they ha- the Packers had it, Seattle's j- from a power rating perspective, I make the game pick 'em, so I have to play plus three big.
31:16
Speaking of Seattle, you know, last night we saw the Rams beat the 49ers, which improved their odds to win the NFC West. They are in control of their own path, actually.
31:23
All they gotta do is just win out, and if they beat Seattle the final game of the season, they're going to be the NFC West champs. They actually, they have a much easier schedule.
31:32
The next two weeks, they're gonna be favored against the Jets, they're gonna be favored against, uh, the Cardinals, and then the, the game against the Seahawks.
31:38
The Seahawks, meanwhile, after this game against Green Bay, which they are two-and-a-half-point dogs, they're gonna have to face the Vikings. What would you set that line at right now
31:49
v- uh, based on what happens here on Sunday night? Well- So if a win or a loss. It, it, I, probably doesn't matter unless it's a blowout. Okay.
31:55
And it, it's a really easy line to set because the Packers and the Vikings are almost equal teams.
32:01
So if my numbers make Seattle pick 'em, but the market says that Seattle should be a two-and-a-half-point dog, the, I think the perception is Green Bay's slightly better than Minnesota, so, so, I mean, Minnesota has to be a small favorite of less than three.
32:13
I'm glad you said that because the look-ahead line right now up on DraftKings is Minnesota minus two and a half at minus 110.
32:21
Now, if we think Minnesota and Green Bay are even teams, and the line on Minnesota-Seattle is minus two and a half, if Green Bay becomes a three-point favorite, inherently, isn't there value on the, the Seattle plus three?
32:34
Oh, of course. Yeah. Yes. Yeah, yeah. So I'm, I mean, and, and this is a case where I never bet plus two and a half, and I, I'm, I'm arguing with people on Twitter and, you know, s- like,
32:44
I, I get frustrated sometimes- [laughs]... because, because I'll say things, and, like, I, I go back to, like, go, just go find 100 geeks from, like, from the Ivy Leagues that bet sports for a living.
32:55
It's not my opinion. They'll agree with me, all right? Yeah. And, and maybe they're all wrong.
32:59
You know, maybe, maybe it's wrong to double a seven against a four, but probably it's right 'cause that's what every good, you know, author, you know, tell- tells you to do.
33:06
But asymmetric risk, if a line is two and a half, I don't bet plus two and a half. Even if, even if I like the game, because there's been so many games, Scott, where I said, "There is no way,
33:17
no way this line could possibly go to Minnesota minus three," but as sure as the sun comes up tomorrow, I might be betting Seattle plus three just based upon which way the wind blows at some point in this betting cycle.
33:29
Well, coming up next, I think I'm gonna make Steve Fezzik proud, like a proud papa watching, uh, his child grow or a proud teacher watching his student, uh, graduate, because I'm gonna tell you why the Seahawks are one of my favorite teaser legs of the week.
33:43
He's Steve Fezzik, two-time Super Contest winner. I'm Scott Seidenberg. This is A Numbers Game. We're in for Gil Alexander here on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
33:53
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
34:21
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34:28
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34:37
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34:52
Visit vsin.com/jansanity and let the Jansanity begin. Scott Seidenberg back here on A Numbers Game in for Gil Alexander here, alongside two-time Super Contest winner Steve Fezzik, professional handicapper.
35:07
Professional bettor. That's a better- I'm a much better bettor than handicapper. It's a better term. It's a- I, I, I'm a-... better bettor... I'm a much better gambler than I am just, like, a pure handicapper.
35:16
Well, I know, I, you're, no, no, I, I don't know anybody better at the actual execution of the bets than Mr. Steve Fezzik.
35:22
Uh, speaking of the execution of bets, I teased out a teaser last segment saying Seahawks plus eight and a half and maybe pairing them up with the Buffalo Bills going from two and a half to eight and a half.
35:33
But at the current market, Fezz, you would say wait on the Seahawks' six-point teaser. Now, again, I always say this on all of my shows. I said it yesterday. I'll repeat it again here for the audience.
35:45
When we talk about six-point teasers, we only wanna do minus 120.
35:48
The best price in the market, minus 120 on the six-point teaser, and only do, do the traditional long teasers going through the key numbers of three and seven.
35:57
That being said, why is it smart to wait on pushing the Seahawks up from two and a half to eight and a half? 'Cause I'm not sure you're gonna be going through the three and seven. I think likely you will.
36:07
I think this game will close 2.25. What's Fezzik talking about with 2.25? That means the market'll be twos and two and a halves. But what if I'm wrong?
36:15
What if, um, obviously the, we heard support earlier in the week at VSiN about playing Green Bay. What if this line goes to three or 2.75 even? So there's two and a halves and threes, and you could bet a plus three.
36:27
Just mathematically, betting a plus three minus 110 lays over playing a teaser. Why? Because when you play a teaser, on each leg you're essentially playing plus- Eight and a half minus 280 each leg.
36:41
Don't say, "Fez, I'm not laying minus 280, I'm laying minus 120." I assure you, you're laying minus 280. Yeah, if you parlay two minus 280s together, it's minus 120. Exactly. Yeah.
36:49
So you are indeed laying plus eight and a half, laying minus 280, and that is an inferior bet than playing a plus three, lay- even laying minus 115. So you need to be cool. You need to wait. Need to wait.
36:59
And see where this line goes. And if you, you know what, if you see a two, hit w- a sharp book, bingo, then go right ahead and fire in a teaser. You need a dance partner with it though, right?
37:07
Well, I was thinking the Buffalo Bills, going up from two and a half to eight and a half against the Detroit Lions. The only trepidation I have with it, and I like it, is the 54 and a half total.
37:17
So all things being equal, I like 37 totals, and I don't like 54 totals because there's inherently more variance.
37:24
By the way, with all this teasers and basic strategy, Stanford Wong wrote a book, Sharp Sports Betting, and he has an entire chapter on what a, exactly a Wong teaser is, because this has gotten so misconstrued.
37:34
People believe a six and a half point favorite, teasing them to a half-point favorite, is a Wong teaser. People believe an eight-point road favorite, teasing them to minus two, is a Wong teaser. It is not.
37:43
Get Stanford Wong's book. I know Stanford well. And, uh, Don Pozinski, by the way, wrote a book on win more, lose less before Stanford did, and he talked about these teasers also.
37:52
Uh, one other teaser that I think would qualify is taking the Minnesota Vikings at seven and a half, down to one and a half. At seven, I don't think I would include it in a teaser. At seven and a half, I would.
38:04
Yeah, so then the Vikings are, like, 6.95 in the market. Mm-hmm. So you could even get 'em on minus seven, even money. Um, what's interesting with the Vikings, you really, you, you...
38:13
I like the Vikings, so I think the line's gonna go higher. Yeah. So I'd be fine with two- Especially 'cause it's a Monday game. Uh, yes.
38:19
And my power ratings make the game eight, and the Vikings were just laying three and a half at Chicago, and they're up 11 late in the game.
38:25
So if they're laying three and a half at Chicago and the Vikings are surging and the Bears stink, clearly the Vikings minus seven looks cheap even. At that number, you don't even have to pay vig.
38:33
So I'm, I'm fine with the Vikings being included. Let's talk about some of your best bets here for week number 15, Fez. Uh, you were on the Rams last night. Congratulations.
38:42
Cashed that one with them winning- Gave it back with the Niners, played the money line back, so I wound up losing on the game. So, oh, so be it. Now, why did you do that?
38:48
Uh, because the Niners, I bumped their power rating a point and a half by, h- after they outgained- But did-... the Bears 300 to four in the first half...
38:54
but did the number get to a point where you felt that it, it was a buy point on the 49ers? Yeah, so I upgraded the Niners a point and a half, and the market downgraded them. Mm-hmm.
39:03
From the, the look I had, the Niners were, uh, the line was, um, Niners minus three, and then the Niners were minus two and a half- Yes... which didn't make any sense to me for that much of an adjustment.
39:11
So you found value once it went down, once the line went down, you found value on the- And then the wrong team won by three. Yes. Which it frequently does. Yes. Uh, you like a couple plays here.
39:19
Let's get into them for week 15. Let's start with the Cleveland Browns against the Kansas City Chiefs.
39:25
Part of me is rooting for you just because I wanna watch Jameis Winston have a post-game press conference after he wins, 'cause he's the most entertaining guy to watch in sports right now. Okay, let's be fair.
39:34
I don't like the Browns at all plus four at the current number, so f- $80 fine. These are plays I gave out last week on Gilly's show, and that's why you got to tune in. We are gonna have two plays, look-ahead lines.
39:42
Really? So I gave out Cleveland plus six a week ago, so I'm taking a victory lap at closing line value, and shows how, why am I able to get, like, such good CLV here when I'm playing these games a week ahead of time?
39:54
CLV, closing line value. Because I'm playing checkers. I'm playing against the bookmaker's line look ahead. I'm not playing against the world- Mm... that has hammered all these lines into play.
40:04
So, um, just to summarize, um, last week I did already, I gave out the Rams plus three. I also gave out the Browns plus six, Eagles minus four and a half, Bucs plus three.
40:13
You can still bet that, so that's still bettable. C- Seattle plus three, you probably are gonna be able to fi- maybe be able to find that. And long donezo gone, I gave out the Bills-Lions, Scott, over 51 and a half.
40:25
I don't th- uh, th- that number's going, boys, and it ain't coming back. [laughs] At what point, though, we always talk about playing back. At what point would you play back on that game? 55. Sammy Hagar.
40:37
[laughs] I can't score 55. [laughs] Uh, but let's talk about some of these games, though. So you did like Cleveland at plus six. Obviously, you don't like it now at plus four.
40:47
But just overall in that game, I mean, we're seeing Kansas City win these games but not cover at a historic rate. This is now, what, seven straight games that they have not covered against the spread.
40:59
And what a contrast. You watch those flaky Bengals at the end of the game. Whoo, let's get it in the end zone, right? Mm-hmm.
41:05
As con- contr- contrasted by Kansas City, let's gain six yards to Kelce, catch a pass on his knees- And have our third-string kicker kick a field goal...
41:12
and ricochet the, the, the, the, the, the, the art of the dump, like The Color of Money. Make it look like you're trying to miss the field goal. Ricochet it off the, the goalpost.
41:19
Um, but K- uh, Kansas City's very adept at that four-minute offense, doing just enough to win.
41:25
So gun to my head, I would still, I would still look Browns, but nothing has changed really, and you're getting two points less. Mm.
41:32
Speaking of lines that have changed, what's your take on that Steelers game against the Eagles now? You like the Eagles. You gave it out at minus four and a half.
41:40
We're looking at the market now, and it, it, we're seeing Philadelphia is laying five, oh, five, you can, there's five and a halfs on the board here, Fez. I, I hate to go against Tomlin as a dog.
41:51
It's been so strong, and it makes sense. Um, but the, and, and I keep hearing the Eagles have internal problems- Mm-hmm... and A.J.
41:58
Brown, they, d- dude, if you're a wide receiver, just shut up and catch the ball, you know? Stop crying for the ball, um, in the media. But I, I, I, the Eagles, I've been super high on the Eagles all year long.
42:08
I got them and Baltimore as my best teams in the NFL, so my power rating's like Eagles. Eagles right now, five and a half, and the Steelers, I, I, I'm on the Steelers, uh, full disclosure.
42:17
I, I love Pittsburgh in this spot. Five and a half just feels like too much in a game that I think is going under. I think this is a low-scoring game. You mentioned A.J.
42:24
Brown, though, a- and it's very interesting because Kelly and I talked about this when we were previewing the, the 49ers game, uh, from last night. As we talk about the squeaky wheel getting the grease, right?
42:35
Deebo Samuel talks, and by the way, Deebo, if you're gonna complain about not getting the football, maybe you should try catching the football when it's thrown to you, 'cause, uh, that could have been a touchdown that changed the entire game.
42:45
I'm not sure the Rams were the right side last night. You know, when you're, when, w- yeah, having watched the game- Mm... boy, there was a couple spots, you know, certainly if it had kept raining- Yeah...
42:53
that would've, I, I think, benefited the Niners more. But that deep ball- Well, Deebo catches that ball, he r- he's running into the end zone for a touchdown. And the Niners win. And the Niners win that game.
43:00
But you mentioned A.J. Brown. He's another guy who's been complaining. Would you look towards A.J. Brown props to think that maybe Jalen Hurts is gonna look and target him early?
43:11
Well, in pre-production, we looked up the, the first drive, right? A.J. Brown to get a catch. Mm-hmm. You know, so, so, so, so, hey, all right, fine. Well, here you go.
43:20
Throw him a, a quick slant and get him on the board so he's not on, he's not on my back all game long if he's bagels in the first half, right? See, that's what, that's the way I think.
43:29
A- and the market right now, let's see, A.J. Brown to catch a pass on the Eagles' first offensive drive is minus 110.
43:38
You gotta think, and, and it doesn't always happen, but I know we had cashed this with the Malik Nabers with the Giants earlier in the season, and it just seems to always happen where these teams or these quarterbacks focus in on getting the guy the football just to say, "Hey, we heard you all week," even with the 49ers.
43:55
Er- first drive, Deebo Samuel got a pass thrown at his way. You know- Mm... he didn't catch it, but they threw it him. Second play of the game, they said, "Hey, Deebo, here you go." Dropped it, or it was incomplete.
44:04
I think A.J. Brown, it's gonna be the same thing. I think on the first Eagles possession, they give A.J. Brown one of those short screen passes, just put the ball in his hands and say, "Here you go."
44:12
Or f- or first quarter, you know, you play- Or first quarter catch you can do-... you, you play usage, yeah... if you don't wanna do that. Uh, he's Steve Fezzik, two-time Super Contest winner. I'm Scott Seidenberg.
44:19
Coming up, we have best bets for week number 15, plus, as I mentioned earlier in the program, I am playing in this World Poker Tour event representing VSiN for our friends over at Poker Now, and Fezz is gonna give me some advice when it comes to playing in a poker tournament.
44:35
You ready for this? I'm ready. I think the question is, am I ready for this? You know, it's funny, people are like, "Why is the, why is the sports bettor, you know, giving you poker advice?"
44:42
It's like, I, I assure all, I, I can address poker and blackjack issues, and Scott'll tell you, I am, like, the world's worst guy to talk blackjack. [laughs] You never wanna play blackjack with me. Oh my goodness.
44:52
Best bets and more coming up next. [upbeat music] Scott Seidenberg in for Gill. It's a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
44:58
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
45:16
Hey, stay tuned to VSiN because coming up after a Numbers Game, it's Money Moves at noon Eastern with Stormy Banton and former NFL player Jeff Schwartz.
45:25
Then make sure you stick around for Prop Points with John Hanson at 2:00 PM, followed by Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00. It's all coming up next right here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
45:36
I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gill here on a Numbers Game alongside Steve Fezzik, two-time Super Contest winner, and it's time to get to the best bets.
45:45
And best bets are brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Fezz, I know you have best bets. Obviously, you gave out some last week here for week 15. I'm curious about your week 16 bets.
45:56
I'll go first with, uh, one of my best bets here for this upcoming, uh, slate of games, and I will start with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
46:04
I know I'm going up against you, so good luck to you, but you have four and a half, I have five and a half. Eagles win by five, we'll take it, we'll both celebrate, okay?
46:11
[laughs] Uh, I th- That, that, that's a, that's a s- very slimmy middle, but okay.
46:15
[laughs] But I think this game is gonna be a low-scoring game because everything that the Eagles do well offensively, the Steelers are able to defend, specifically Jalen Hurts' ability to run the football.
46:28
Jalen Hurts is scrambling at the highest rate in his career, and the Steelers have only allowed nine scramble runs this year. That's eight fewer than the next highest team. They defended Lamar well.
46:39
They defended Jayden Daniels very well. Both those quarterbacks didn't have a single scramble in their games.
46:44
I think Pittsburgh contains Jalen Hurts, so it'll be all about Saquon Barkley and whether or not he'll be effective here against the Steelers' defense.
46:51
And then when it comes to the Steelers' offense, I think the Eagles actually can defend what they do best, which is the play action game. I see this as being a very low-scoring game.
47:00
What it comes down to for me getting the points, Mike Tomlin as a dog. He's five and 0 ATS this season, but he's not just an underdog, Fezz. He's an underdog with a good team.
47:10
I looked up the history of 10-win teams playing against each other, double-digit win teams.
47:16
Since 2012, the underdogs, you know, okay, do pretty well ATS, but in recent history, it's been that much better, 22 and 16 against the spread since 2021. So edge goes slightly to the dogs.
47:30
I'm old enough to remember, boy, the Broncos in their first three Super Bowls with Elway didn't get that memo, did they, you know?
47:35
[laughs] Uh, also, w- uh, in that game where the Giants are heavily underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens, I don't think they're gonna be able to tackle Derrick Henry.
47:45
I don't think they're gonna be able to stop the run. I think Denri- Derrick Henry has a big day, and I'm gonna look at his longest rush prop over 20 and a half.
47:53
He's gone over this 10 of 13 games this year, and now he faces one of the worst rush defenses in the entire NFL, a team that allows the second-most yards after missed tackles and one of the highest explosive run rates against in the NFL, the New York Giants.
48:07
So give me- Like it... De- Derrick Henry longest rush over 20 and a half.
48:11
And to go along with that theme, Justice Hill, the backup running back for the Ravens, I'll take his over 14 and a half rushing yards because I think in the second half, specifically in the fourth quarter, when the Ravens are up big and Derrick Henry's already rushed for 250 yards and four touchdowns, [laughs] they'll just put the backup in.
48:28
Bold statement. Justice Hill will have a longest rush over 20 and a half. Oh, I like that, Fezz. I like that a lot. That's a la- that's a ladder, layer, whatever you wanna call it.
48:37
Yeah, uh, repeating bets that I did give out earlier in the program, I am on the Carolina Panthers against the Dallas Cowboys. We played that whole "what if" game.
48:45
If you look at the last three games, if Carolina had won those three games, this line is easily three, maybe even three and a half when you consider the Cowboys' injury status.
48:54
So I think the Panthers certainly have to be upgraded, minus two and a half, a great number to play on them that is available widely in the market. And then I'll take the under 54 and a half in that Bills-Lions game.
49:05
That number's just too stupid to me. Now, r- real important as far as optimal betting. So let's say you agree with that under on the Bills lines, which I do, and the whole world has 54 and a half.
49:13
Oh, we're waiting till we get to 55. We'd be cool. Yeah, yeah. We'd be cool. So never ever- Be cool. Be cool... never ever, if you look at the, like, like this is what people do.
49:21
I'm gonna shop for the best number and I'm gonna go bet it right now. Well, if the best number is the same at every single book in the world- Mm-hmm... and you have all these outs, just, just wait. Wait.
49:29
Th- th- which, depending on which way the wind blows, someone's probably gonna go to 55. And then that's the case.
49:34
So obviously I'm giving out what's available right now, but the advice would be to wait because this line should go up, and then we can just bet the under 55.
49:42
And it doesn't have to go up, it just has to pop up at one book. Just has to pop up somewhere. Yes. Just keep your apps open and keep an eye on that. Let's take a look at Kedley- Kelly Bidlin's best bets. He's got A.J.
49:50
Brown over 75 and a half receiving yards. We kind of talked about that last segment with the squeaky wheel getting the grease. Buccaneers at plus three.
49:59
Bills and Lions, he's on the over, gave that earlier, at 52 and a half. Obviously we've seen that go up. Lions at two and a half. Broncos minus four and a half.
50:08
And Packers money line for Kelly Bidlin there on the best bets. Fez, let's get to your best bets, not for this week in the NFL, but for week 16 coming up next week. What do we like?
50:22
And, and just putting a bow on week 15, I agree with Kelly's, um, play. I already gave this out. Bucs plus three, that's still widely available. Mm-hmm. Boom.
50:30
Chargers are missing their best running back, uh, their best tight end, and their best wide receiver. The lad is- [laughs]... is injured.
50:37
By the way, if you love all this prop talk, um, Prop Points with John Hanson is a tremendous show. Oh, yeah.
50:43
That's, that is the one show that I personally listen to, other than Gilly's show, sorry, Gilly, um, each and every week. So definitely if you haven't listened to it, check out John and the fine work that he does.
50:53
Can't wait to hear, I mean, about how everybody got messed up with, uh, last night's game, you know, with everybody going unders. Well, Puka went over.
51:01
George Kittle went over, which we hit, and our boy Colby Parkinson went over. The, uh, Gurando, I mispronounced that one- Gurando... wound up, Gurando wound up going over- [laughs]... um, wh- wh- which is shocking.
51:11
Cooper Kupp did not, though. So if you pl- if you had Cooper Kupp- Did he play last night? I didn't see him. If you had Cooper Kupp in fantasy in your week one of the playoffs, I feel sorry for you.
51:18
But Fez, let's get to your week 16 best bets. What are we looking ahead to? Go to the Queen City, uh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Battle of Ohio, uh, over 49. I checked the weather. It's gonna be cold, but should be fine.
51:31
Hey, the Bengals finally play an under game that'll, that's because Cooper Rush was the quarterback. We got Jameis Winston. He'll throw four touchdown passes. Who he throws them to- [laughs]... we will see.
51:41
We're gonna go- Split them two and two. We'll go over 49. Uh, w- and, uh, what else did you say? Eagles, Commanders I see you're looking at for next week. Yeah, so you made the case the Eagles are an under team. Mm-hmm.
51:51
Um- Best defense in the NFL since the bye. Yes. And so, you know, Washington, Philly, I see l- quite a bit of running on both sides. I'm gonna go under the 48.
51:59
Surprised that line right now is Eagles minus three in Washington? No. No? Okay. No. Po- power rating-wise, I got the Eagles seven points better than an average team, Washington two points better.
52:08
That makes it five on a neutral. That actually makes the Eagles a three and a half point favorite. What happens to this line if the Steelers beat the Eagles? Not much. It's, it,
52:17
week three and four there can be radical changes. Mm-hmm. But this late in the year, I think we know how good both these teams are. I don't think it really matters much. Okay. Uh, that i- that'll do it for the G-...
52:27
Oh, actually we have to get the Paul Carr's best bets, who gave us the Premier League plays. I love the way that you have to pronounce it properly. It's not Premier League, it's Premier League. Got it.
52:35
Fez, Premier League. Uh, he's like, he likes Arsenal win to nil. That means they have to win in a shutout, minus 120 versus Everton. On Sunday, Man City, Man United to play to a draw. That's at plus 360.
52:47
He also gave out a bonus bet on that game if you want to do the double chance, which is Man United to win or have a draw. That was still at plus money as well.
52:55
And then on Monday, Bournemouth money line over West Ham at minus 135. Paul Carr been on an absolute heater here with Gil. So, uh, those are his best bets.
53:04
And best bets, as I mentioned, brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. VSiN recommends every bettor make the G Bank Visa Signature card part of their betting toolbox.
53:13
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53:40
If you've been watching this show, you see me wearing the little VSiN, uh, polo. Billboard. Billboard, yes.
53:46
I'm going to be representing VSiN, courtesy of our friends over at Poker Now, in the World Poker Tour $5 million free roll- Don't screw it up... at the Wynn, coming up a little, a bit later on it this morning.
53:55
Actually, uh, the cards will be dealt in about an hour from now, so I gotta head over there and get my checks, as they say. That's the poker lingo for chips. Fez, give me your advice. Don't get stacked with one pair.
54:08
If you've got, if you got aces and you raise, you get a caller, and the flop comes queen, eight, three, and all the money winds up going in, you lose. Thank you. Have a good day.
54:17
So, but like, pot control, don't bet the turn. Bet, bet after the flop, C-bet it, check the turn. So pot control. Um, stop falling in love with crap. King, jack, queen. Mm. King, queen, ace, jack.
54:29
Somebody raises in early position, throw that trash away. That is not how you're gonna make money. Now, one of my fears is that I'm gonna get blinded out, okay?
54:37
And I'm gonna, you know, maybe I catch a cold run of cards- Play tight. Good...
54:40
or, or I'm just playing way too tight, and I get to a point later on in the afternoon where I'm sitting here going, "I only have like seven big blinds left." Well, you're already blinded out at that point.
54:50
I'm already blinded out at that point. You've already screwed up at that point. Yeah. So at what point do you, you have to start being aggressive, trying to make blind-stealing moves?
54:57
If you go t- back-to-back orbits and you haven't played a hand, which could easily happen- Well, sure, yeah, of course... boom, and a guy raises, we talked about this pre-production.
55:04
So, uh, now you, everyone knows you're just a tighty, all right? Mm-hmm. You don't play anything but premium hands.
55:08
So you pick up eight, 10 of diamonds on the button, and the guy before you raises, and he's a, a maniac, he's playing all these hands. Don't call. Re-raise him. Put the pressure on him.
55:17
You're only doing it with queens, kings, or aces because you're a tighty whitey guy, you know? Yeah, that's a, that's a solid point. He's Steve Fezzik. Check him out @FezzikSports. Two-time super contest winner.
55:26
I'm Scott Steinberg. Follow me on Twitter @ScottsOnAir.
55:29
I'll be updating my status throughout the day, so hopefully there'll be multiple updates and not just one update in about an hour from now saying that I'm eliminated. [laughs] Don't call. Fold or raise. Do not call.
55:39
My thanks to Kedley- Kelly Bidlin. [laughs] This has been a Numbers Game. Stormy and Jeff Schwartz coming up next on Money Moves right here on VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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