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Dec 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | December 6, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:35
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, every ticket us in, we are grateful. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin alongside everybody.
0:46
How you doing, man? I'm doing great. How about you? Uh, it's a football Friday. Yeah. Football. Football. Football. Uh, can't wait. Uh, we will have in the second hour Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob.
0:57
Can't really beat that lineup, can you? Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob, Falica and, uh, Dr. Bob on college football. Uh, Falica might have some pro pl- picks as well.
1:05
They are the bookends to Steve Fezzik in studio talking National Football League, not just this week, but also look aheads with Stevie, uh, later on the show. Uh, this hour we'll talk Premier League.
1:15
Paul Carr, who, uh, had a little road bump this week. He was, uh, I think he went 0 for 3 after a 3 and 0. Oh, really? Um, he's still up on the year, about five units or so.
1:23
Paul Carr will join us to give his Premier League picks from this weekend. Jason Weingarten as well.
1:27
And are we sure in the National Football League, a question we ask ourselves each and every Friday, estamos seguros about things in the NFL? That's right. We'll do that. Kelly asks the questions, I try to answer.
1:39
Are we sure? But we gotta begin, Kelly, with last night's Thursday Night Football game. What a game it was. Lions 34, Packers 31. Uh, Packers get the money against the spread. Uh, it soars over.
1:53
Let me just say, though, that this is one of those games where people go, "Oh, yeah, it soared over. It was easy over." Yeah, you hit the royal flush of everything. Right, [laughs] yeah.
2:02
You, you converted both fourth and goals early, and then you didn't convert the fourth and, and whatever it was in your own territory, and Goff threw a, uh, a pick- Mm-hmm...
2:12
in, you know, very, uh, deep inside their own territory. So it was kind of like an over, uh, uh, you know, just cavalcade of over things happening. So 34-31, the Lions get it done.
2:22
The Lions move to 12 and 1 on the season. Obviously huge for the division, the, uh, NFC North. Obviously huge for number one seed implications as both the Vikings and the Eagles chase them for both of those things.
2:37
I wanna w- without going through the whole game, I just wanna focus on one thing. I have just one general question, um, about this game. Let me just go through the fourth downs real quick and get your reactions to them.
2:48
10 to 7 Detroit. This is in the second quarter. 10 to 7 Detroit. Uh, Detroit has a fourth and goal at the two after Montgomery was stuffed for a one-yard loss. They go for it, Goff to Gibbs, touchdown.
3:01
11 seconds left in the second quarter, 17 to 7. Sure, yeah. Great. You like that one? Great, great game. Yeah, yeah. By the way, at half- I was so worried Gil was gonna do this too. I'm like, they're...
3:09
I'm like, in watching the game- Yeah... I'm like, all right, have we officially hit the point where they've gone for it so many times I'm not gonna be able to remember- Well-... on the spot- I'm getting to a-...
3:17
which is which? Yeah... I'm getting to a macro question here. [laughs] By the way, at, at halftime, Jordan Love was 3 of 7 for 31 yards. I, I was just gonna pull up to your point about the over, right? Yeah.
3:27
Like, the Packers had 298 yards of offense. Yeah. It's a lot when you're seeing 65- No... points put on the board. No, they ran 45 plays and had 31 points though. [laughs] Right, yeah.
3:38
No, I m- but it really was about the fourth downs, right? So, okay, there's that one. By the way, the enti- the h- entire halftime show, they never m- mentioned once that Jordan Love was 3 of 7 for 31 yards.
3:47
Like, they had to go back to Kirk and Al- I was gonna s-... before it was even brought up.
3:50
I, I, I was gonna say, I thought I heard someone mention it right as they were going into halftime, but yeah, I didn't watch the halftime show. All right. That, so that was the first fourth down, so they're up 17 to 7.
3:58
Now they're up, now it's Green Bay 21-17. Green Bay's up. Detroit fourth and one at the, at their own 49. Goff sneaks for a first. I don't think anybody had a problem with that one. No.
4:08
Uh, later, four- The sneak effective. Effective. The sneak effective for the Lions. That's, uh, write that one down for later. The sneak effective- Oh... is the name of his new album.
4:16
[laughs] Later, fourth and goal at the three, Goff to Patrick. Touchdown. They go for it fourth and goal at the three, down four points.
4:24
That's with, uh, 4:30, uh, what is that with, uh, do, do, do, do, doo, with 5:02 left in the third- Yeah, no problem... to go up 24-21. That one I, I think that one I was a little bit d- more down the middle.
4:35
Like, it would've been okay with a field goal, but I would've gone for it there, and no surprise, Dan Campbell did. Same score, 24-21 Detroit. Detroit fourth and one at their own 31.
4:44
With 1:29 left in the third quarter, they pitch the ball- Yeah... to Jahmyr Gibbs. Here, we're so arrogant and cocky we're gonna pitch this. We're gonna, we're gonna see if it can get back to the line of scrimmage.
4:55
Nope, stuffed for a one-yard loss. Short field for Green Bay. Of course they score, and Green Bay goes back up 28-24. So I know it sounds easy to do this results-oriented wise- No, we're, that, that we're getting the...
5:05
We're not going to be results-oriented by the question- Okay... I'm just about to ask. Well, well, that was the one where I was like, "Are we really gonna do this here? Like, I don't know about this one, guys."
5:13
And, uh, like I would, I would've been punting away there- Okay... and yes, it got stuffed. What I, my point is that everyone is being results-oriented. Okay. Right?
5:20
That they won the game and so everybody's gonna wash away that play. But if, again, what was it? If it w- what's the example? If it was Brandon Staley, they'd lose their minds, right? Mm-hmm. Okay. One more.
5:31
Fourth and inches. Now, this is on the final drive. This is the one that everybody's talking about. This is one I have no problem with, by the way. Um, there was a hold on Ragnahl. The score's 31-31.
5:40
Hold on Ragnahl that brings Detroit back to their 40-yard line. Yeah. So they end up with a fourth and inches at the Green Bay 21 after Montgomery was stuffed by Zane Anderson on third and one. Mm-hmm.
5:51
So fourth and inches at the Green Bay 21, tie game, well within field goal range with 43 seconds left.
5:57
Campbell decides to go for it because he wants to be able to run the clock down to three seconds to win the game, uh, on his racket, if you will.
6:04
Goff falls While handing the ball off, Montgomery still gets it, Bates kicks the field goal, Detroit wins the game 34-31.
6:12
So the question should be this to me, 'cause again, if you were on Detroit's side or Green Bay's side, it could have gone either way in terms of the spread. Detroit wins, Green Bay loses.
6:21
I don't think there was anything that shocking about the result. But it does beg the question, and here it is:
6:28
Are you worried if you're a Detroit Lions fan or if you have Detroit bets, as I do, by the way, I have Detroit matchup bets in the Super Bowl with both Kansas City and Baltimore. Are you worried that Dan Campbell is so
6:44
hell-bent on going for fourth downs? And I don't say that because of the last one. I say that because of the one in his own territory. Yeah. That's what allows me to ask this question, right? Yep.
6:53
Are you worried that he's so hell-bent on doing this that he actually doesn't know what he's doing, and that it is all by this mythical feel, and that it is going to inevitably get them in the postseason?
7:08
And let me just add to that, oh, by the way, it already has last year, right? Because we talked about the royal flush of overs in this game yesterday. Remember the NFC Championship. Remember the NFC Championship.
7:21
There was about four different fourth down situations. What's the opposite of a royal flush? They went 0 for 4- [laughs]... in decision-making in the NFC Championship. Yeah.
7:30
And they squandered a three-score lead, if you recall, and San Francisco ends up going to the Super Bowl. So I, I, I think it's a valid question, and I'm, and I'm not asking it rhetorically. Yeah, yeah.
7:39
Do you think that this will ultimately torpedo the Lions? I mean, look, I think it's, I think it's of course a valid question 'cause we almost sa- saw... Well, uh, just even last night, right?
7:49
You almost saw it play out within that game last night. I think that, um, look, I think that there is always gonna be, it's always gonna be opponent dependent.
7:57
It's always gonna be dependent on what your current team makeup is, right?
8:01
I think they were in a situation last night where they knew with the defensive injuries, them pr- keeping the, their foot on the gas pedal was in their benefit, and I think in most situations with the Detroit Lions, as long as it's not [laughs]...
8:13
This is the problem. This is the problem. As long as it's not in absurd, absurd situations like, like it was for, to be for them to go to fourth in their own territory- Right...
8:21
but in most situations when you're actually thinking about going for it on fourth down, they have the personnel to make it work. I'd usu- I most of the time do not have a problem with it.
8:30
Real quick, NFC champ- Is that a cop-out answer? Like, I don't even know. Uh, no, no, that's a fine answer. I, I'll, I'll get to a bigger point for me though.
8:36
Real, r- real quick, the NFC Championship last year, 'cause people won't remember. Mm-hmm. There were four instances of this. They were up 14 to 7.
8:43
They had it fourth and 6 at the San Francisco 46, and he decided to punt, and every Niners bettor was thrilled at that moment. Later in the game, they were, uh, later in the game,
8:56
it was fourth and goal at the Niners three. They were up 21 to 7, and they kicked a field goal to go up 24 to 7. All right? Remember, they ended up losing this lead. Yep.
9:08
So i- in that case, first half, he was conservative, conservative. Then, uh, 24 to 10 Detroit in the NFC Championship. It was fourth and two. This is in the second half now, in the third quarter.
9:19
It's fourth and two at the Niners 28. Goff incomplete intended for Reynolds. All right? That allowed the Niners to catch up in the game, right? And then 27-24 Niners,
9:32
9:52 left, then the Detroit gets the ball left, so there's, uh, g- gets the ball back. There's plenty of time in the game.
9:38
They end up with a fourth and three at the San Francisco 30, down a field goal with 7:38 to go in the game, and then he decided to go for it.
9:47
And here are my notes from the NFC Championship last year, 'cause I was on the Niners. He goes, I said, "Goff under pressure, incomplete, intended for Saint Brown. Dan Campbell, you beautiful bastard."
9:55
[laughs] So I, I just wanna say this. I say this as a guy who has Dan Ca- has the Lions bets. This worries me. Mm-hmm. It worries me because the Lions talent-wise are a better team than everyone else. Yep. Okay?
10:13
If you were not better talent-wise than everyone else, then this kind of aggressive approach at all times, which we dis- which he displayed l- l- yesterday, then I get it.
10:25
But if you're the best team, what you are doing is artificially placing yourself in high leverage situations a little too many times for my liking, because you are opening the door for a lesser opponent to have a fighter's chance when they otherwise would not have.
10:43
Okay. Does that make sense? Uh, completely makes sense. Completely understand it. I think this is where it gets tough, 'cause I'll go back to what I said about this game.
10:51
It's, I think you also have an advantage though, if you're knowing, if you know and think I, my offensive line is so dominant- I-... my short game is so dominant- Kelly, I get it...
11:00
give me another down, not many teams are gonna be able to slow me down. Kelly, I get it, but you're not gonna bat 1000 doing that. [laughs] I know, I know. Panay sul, shmanay shmul.
11:09
[laughs] You're not gonna go five for five. Yep. You're, you're not, right? And they didn't. And so, and so I'm just saying, as a team that is better than everybody else, he's a little too much on this stuff.
11:20
He's a little too extra, as the kids say, and I'm worried about it as a guy who has Lions bets. Yeah. Just saying.
11:26
No, no, I, I, I, I think it's a really fascinating conversation 'cause what you just said is absolutely correct. Yeah. Could you make the mistake of allowing a team- Yes... that shouldn't be in the game- Yes...
11:37
to get in the game? Be- And yes, of course they can... and because they've done it before. Yep. They've done it before. Last night they, last night everything worked out, right?
11:46
So people are going to minimize because of results, 'cause people are results oriented, people are gonna minimize the fact that they did go for it [laughs] fourth and short at their own 31.
11:58
And at that point, I think we were all like, "What are you, what are you doing, man?" Yeah. Yeah. That one was- And Green Bay took the, took the lead right after that.
12:04
Now, I'm just saying, I think that's the macro question from last night. Wanna hear Dan Campbell's thoughts on the other side? We will. Let's do that. And are we sure about other questions in the NFL? That's next.
12:13
Numbers Game, presented by the Sports Betting Network. The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
12:31
Hour number two of a Numbers Game right here at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. We just appreciate that you choose one of them.
12:40
It's Gil Alexander. It is K. Michael Bidlin, producer number nine, right, right here to my left. [laughs] So you're right. Yeah, well, I just saluted. [laughs] This is... By the way, you being K.
12:51
Michael Bidlin completely changes your brand. I know, right? [laughs] Just K. Michael Bidlin. Uh- Well, I know we r- we had a lengthy discussion about this at one point.
12:59
I can't remember if it was Primetime Action or a Numbers Game. Sounds like- Oh, that's right. Probably Primetime Action. Yeah... sounds like a great mystery novelist, uh- Yeah... that's how I should go.
13:08
What's, uh, what, what's the names? What are they called? Like pen names or whatever. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Little, uh, yeah, pen name. Like Samuel Clemens- Yeah... Mark Twain. Yeah, yeah. Pen name.
13:16
I'm blanking on the actual term for that. Yeah. K- K. Michael Bidlin will be your pen name. K. Michael Bidlin, yeah. Okay. Uh, we get tweets that beat the book. By the way, it's football Friday.
13:23
We got Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob here momentarily. Jeff Staples, Cigar City Jeff, um, "I really like the over 170 and a half rushing yards for Jetsey tonight. National game exposure and last chance for a Heisman push.
13:35
He'll get a ton of carries." And- I, by the way, real quick on that. Yeah. I don't know if I'd... Like, I, I think I'd go alts one way or the other. Yeah.
13:43
Like, if you're going over, I'm laddering that up, or- UNLV was his worst performance earlier in the year... right, yeah. It was- Yeah...
13:48
his worst performance, so there might be some value on the alt unders too if you think UNLV could show up and do that.
13:53
Edward Perez at Boomerizzle, he said, "Yes, absolutely think this could happen with Campbell, and if it does, he will repeat," talking about him, you know, making a bad decision in the playoffs that will cost the Lions.
14:05
Uh, he says, "And if it does, he will repeat over and over how he had total 100% confidence in his players, in essence putting it on them in a way where the players can't be upset if things go wrong."
14:14
[laughs] I am glad you brought up last year, 'cause that game, you c- like, you can't forget that when it comes to- No... the resume of Dan Campbell- No... and what he's done. Nope. 'Cause it was, it was ugly. Yes.
14:26
Jack Hannon at SteelerJack50, "During the course of the playoffs, Campbell will cost the Lions a game. Inevitable. A month ago I would've said the same thing about Sirianni, but someone talked some sense into him.
14:35
Not happening with Campbell." Stringfellow Hawk says, "In concert, a very special evening with saxophonist K. Michael Bidlin." [laughs] Dgen Southern Gent, "Gil, I loved The Food That Built America.
14:48
I've never been more proud to be an American than I was learning about early US culinary entrepreneurs. Binge-watched the show like crazy. Also, check out Booze, Sex, and Bets That Built America." [laughs] Hold on.
14:59
I, I'm not aware of that one. That's interesting. You got, like, two words into that, I was like, "Well, I'm far more interested in that one."
15:04
[laughs] The, the Food That Built America, I just wanna say this before we get to Falica. Where's this on? It's History Channel, I believe. Okay. We grew up- I'm gonna write this one down...
15:11
we all grew up, you and me both, Kelly. Yep. We all grew up at a time in American history where we just took for granted stuff was on the shelves. Mm-hmm.
15:21
Cereals galore, candies galore, pizzas, uh, you know, pizza options, you name the f- frozen foods. Well, guess what?
15:30
If we went back, like a generation or two before us, none of that stuff existed, and so this is the fascinating story, and it's so well done, of how all of that came to be. You know what I just figured out? K.
15:42
Michael Bidlin's first book is what it's gonna be about, is when, is when, when I was living in Russia- Yes... and free Russia started to get all of the American foods. Oh. And it was crazy. K. Michael Bidlin.
15:52
Like when McDonald's first opened in Russia, oh my gosh. New York Times number one best-selling list. Watch out. Best seller, here it comes. Gonna hit the mic.
15:59
Ladies and gentlemen, Chris Falica will have a best seller once, uh, once- Far more... soon in the future I'm sure. He is The Bear from Fox Sports.
16:06
He's also got The Bear Bets podcast, which he does with our buddy Will Hill, Sammy P, Jeff Schwartz, a cast of characters. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line from Boise, Idaho. How you doing, Chris?
16:17
I, I'm, I'm well. A nice little gray morning here in, uh, in Boise. You, you know what, another shot, it's, it's not like, uh, Food That Made America, it's more of a sports-related deal.
16:28
Have you guys started checking out that Game Seven series on Amazon Prime? No. It's like stories and game... Like, uh, the, the... I've, I've watched a couple of them.
16:37
They had one on game seven of the 2003 World Series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. It's really good. And then I watched another one on game seven of the Oilers-Flyers- Oh, wow... final.
16:48
Like, it, it's r- it's really, really... I, I would suggest checking out.
16:51
I think, like, Mark Messier and, uh, a- and Da- David Ross I, I think are kind of like co-executive producers on it, and it, it's really entertaining.
17:00
So if you got some time to kill, uh, once college football season, uh, ends here or whatever else, uh- I didn't, I didn't even know that existed. Wow. Yeah. I, I didn't, I didn't either. My, my...
17:10
We, we were flipping through the channel the other day for, and, and to see if Hard Knocks has started yet, and, uh, it had not.
17:16
And then, like, "Hey, if you like this, we suggest this," and it was Game Seven, so we're like, "Yeah, let, let, let's watch this and see what's going on." And, uh, yeah, really entertaining.
17:24
By the way, nobody needs to tweet in. Chris knows that the Yankees/Red Sox was the 2003 AL Championship. He misspoke. Please don't- I te- oh, yes. Oh, yes... come after him. Yes. I, I'm aware. Yes. Thank you.
17:32
He's a- I'm sorry. [laughs] Uh, all right, uh, championship, college championship fever. Today and tomorrow, nine games. Uh, you have bets in how many of them? I have bets that I like in four of them. Okay.
17:49
Let, let's- Um, I, I like, uh, I, I like Penn State's team total under in the game. Uh, I, I, I don't think they're gonna have a ton of, uh, success scoring.
18:00
However, I will say this about this game, a- and I, I talk about this and maybe I read too much into it, and maybe I'm full of you know what, but this is one of those games where I haven't heard one person pick Penn State yet.
18:15
[laughs] That's all I need. And- Yeah... and I, I, I think Matt Youmans I think was someone who mentioned it. I think some other people, they mention on, like, their power ratings have Oregon Like five, five and a half.
18:27
And this line hasn't moved. It's at three and a half solid.
18:31
Like, that would worry me and that would make me feel, uh, that the oddsmakers are very comfortable with their position here in taking Oregon money and that they kind of have a feeling that Penn State might be the right side in this game.
18:43
So, uh, but I, I do think it'll be a lower scoring game, uh, in Indianapolis tomorrow night. Uh, I do like Georgia minus the, getting the two and a half rather against Texas.
18:53
Uh, this could just be a situation where it's not a great matchup for Texas. And look, I, look, I know that first game was weird.
19:00
You had the seven turnovers, you had the bizarre incident where the officials kind of reversed the, the pass interference call and gave Texas a, an interception, and Georgia special teams dominated, and you saw Arch come in.
19:14
But also in that game, you gotta remember too, Georgia played without two of their offensive line starters. So like their offensive line is gonna be better now.
19:21
They, they're gonna get, uh, Trevor Etienne back in some capacity, uh, tomorrow. He's not 100%. He's not gonna play the entire game, but I, I would expect to see him out there.
19:31
Texas has got issues now on the right side of the offensive line, uh, w- with Banks and does Goolsby play. I, I, I just, I think Georgia just has kind of the recipe.
19:42
Uh, the beat Texas offense there frankly has been a little underwhelming, uh, this year. So I took Georgia plus two and a half. I, I took Clemson plus the two and a half against SMU.
19:51
Uh, again, this is a, are the oddsmakers that off in their number to open Clemson as a three-point favorite in this game and have it swing all the way across to the other side now?
20:03
Now SMU is a two and a half point favorite, three point favorite. Now I, I don't think they're that off in, in their power ratings. And I... But I, I just think Clemson's the...
20:12
Look, I don't think Clemson is a great team at all. They easily could have lost to Pitt. Fell behind Virginia Tech. Got blown out on their home field against Louisville. But, but I, I think the amount of pressure now
20:23
on SMU, kind of with the committee basically telling them, "You better win or else you're going to be out," uh, I, I think that's a lot. I think you look at SMU's schedule, they played,
20:35
five of their eight conference games were against, uh, ECC teams that did not have a winning record in conference play, so they kind of got a schedule advantage. Uh, I, I do like Clubnick.
20:44
I think he's gonna give SMU even some problems.
20:46
I know the SMU offense have been great since Jennings came into play, but, but I think this is one of those games where we're gonna be looking up at Dabo at the end of the game and, "Oh, the whole, the whole little, yeah, little old Clemson.
20:57
Everyone counted us out, and here we are again win- winning the ACC." Hmm. So I do think, I do, I do think Clemson is the right side here. And, uh, I like Iowa State against Arizona State.
21:07
I think the lo- Arizona State's injuries at wide receiver is a big deal. I know Iowa State has struggled to stop the run.
21:13
But if they don't have to devote as much resources in the, at John Hickok's defense to slow down a passing game and they can kind of focus on Skattebo, uh, I think obviously that makes their, uh, their, their task that much easier.
21:26
Uh, I think Iowa State has kind of been a little underappreciated this year. They got two great wide receivers. And, uh, and I like, I like the Clones here. I, I see that ticking down to, uh, to one and a half now.
21:36
I'd still take it. I, I mean, I took them plus two, but one and a half is still fine. Let's do a little rapid fire here. Yeah. I think, I think you already answered this.
21:43
Uh, and that was, the first one was going to be if SMU does lose to Clemson, Clemson gets in as the ACC champion- [clears throat]... you, you do believe Alabama will be in, uh, at the expense of SM- Yeah...
21:54
at the expense of SMU? Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I think they, that Ward Manuel, they basically spelled it out, uh, the, the other night and said it without really saying it. A- and you know what's funny too?
22:04
I, I was kind of anti-Ole Miss all along. I'm like, "Oh, you can't lose those three games against unranked teams." But, but now I'm just kind of doing all these sorts that I do at the end of the year.
22:14
Like, I'm wondering, like... And, and I hate, like, the, the simple answer being like, uh, if you were an opposing coach, which of these three teams would you least wanna play? I think the answer would be Ole Miss.
22:25
Ole Miss. But like, like, like I would probably have them. I mean, they, they crushed South Carolina with Sellers. Their loss in Florida is nowhere near as bad as Flori- as, as, uh, Alabama's loss at O- at Oklahoma.
22:38
I don't know. I, I, I think, I think the committee got it wrong with the ordering of those three. I, I said earlier in the week, I said a couple things.
22:43
One, Ole Miss has the most to be angry about, in my opinion, and two, I gave you your props on the whole suggestion of here's, here's how the committee could have gotten out of this whole controversy about, "Hey, a championship game is not supposed to hurt you if you lose."
22:58
Right. Just rank Alabama ahead of SMU going into this week. Correct. Exactly. Right? Just do that. Let, let them know where they stand. Exactly. Yeah. Okay.
23:06
The o- the second one is we don't know what the match-ups are gonna be quite yet. We have some sense- Mm-hmm... but we don't really know.
23:11
What is your sense of right now if I say, "Chris Feliko, who's the best team in college football? Who's, who's probably the team to beat?" You would say? [sighs] So hard, right? Like there isn't- It is hard.
23:20
I, I, and I'm probably gonna get laughed at for saying this, but I think it still could be Ohio State.
23:26
I, I, I think Ohio with, with the defense that they have, and you wor- and, and the Michigan bugaboo pressure to win, that game is all for them.
23:33
You might be in a situation now where they just let it rip and, and, and you're seeing Abuka a- and Jeremiah Smith get balls, and you're gonna get a home game.
23:41
You're gonna get either warm weather or an indoor quarterfinal, semifinal. Like, Ohio State might be really over- overlooked right now and undervalued to win a title. Uh, real quick, I need a five-second answer.
23:53
Jeanty, how many yards does he have to get tonight to win the Heisman, or is there no amount of yards? Your hunch. Nah, no amount of yards. It's, it's over. Travis Hunter is your Heisman winner.
24:01
Well, I worry about that as well. Chris Feliko, enjoy Boise, man. [upbeat music] Chris Feliko, everybody. The Bear from Fox Sports. Coming back with Steve Fezzik in studio.
24:12
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24:30
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24:53
Back at Circa, Gil Alexander, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Kelly Bidlin also, uh, in the house behind the glass. Uh, Steve Fezzik standing by. First, your tweets though.
25:02
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Roger Jones @bracowins, "Guys, I think, um, Motor City, Dan Campbell's decisions are easy to follow when you look through the prism of Applebee's continuous wings.
25:13
When the server asks, you don't punt, you say more." Todd Wishnev all over that on the Megapod.
25:18
Uncle Bush, "Do you think, uh, to Jason's point, there may be a reverse bias on Travis Hunter with some national voter hate on Coach Prime causing to vote against Hunter?"
25:27
I'm sure there will be some, um, as, [smacks lips] how can I put this?
25:33
I, I would hope people would not use their vote as their own, you know, through their own personal biases to that extent, but I'm sure there will be a group, Uncle Bush, that will be voting because of their dislike of Coach Prime.
25:45
Johnny Ringo, "Pen name, pseudonym." Yes, both are okay, by the way. Pseudonym, uh, obviously is a, is a word, but pen name is what they refer to, uh, Mark Twain also, uh, a real name, Samuel Clemens.
25:57
Talking about Kelly and, uh, K. Michael Bidlin. The RGB, "Me, R. Gary Beard, got you all started on the first initial conversation [laughs] prior to the Super Bowl." Maybe, maybe it was you, RGB. Mr. Bomb Apple, "Was Dr.
26:09
Bob being a line bully on the pod? I could feel Todd wanting to push back and was waiting for a showdown. For once, Toddy seemed intimidated."
26:17
Well, because Bob's been on before and, and we've accused Toddy of being rude to Dr. Bob, so maybe he was, uh, sort of, uh, tamed by that a little bit. Accused. [laughs] Accused for the background. It's factual.
26:28
Anthony, Anthony Turtolo, "I watched the, the, uh, Yacht Rock documentary last night. Thanks for the recommendation." So good, right? Uh, Joe C, "The best is still Skill Alexander and Kelly Bin Laden. L- LOL."
26:38
JasonH11, "The History Channel has a bunch of great Built America series. The Titans Who Built America is fantastic, as is The Food That Built America. The spinoffs are all excellent as well."
26:48
Uh, Bobby Knuckles has asked Chap- [laughs] ChatGPT to write a synopsis for Kelly's first horror novel under the pen name K.
26:56
Michael Bidlin, uh, in case the game show host career doesn't pick up, and he, he actually provides it. Uh, boy, this stuff is amazing, this AI. Eric Cheshire, this is a great point, Eric Cheshire, "Here's an angle.
27:06
If you're on Clemson money line, FanDuel has SMU three to one to miss the playoff better than Clemson plus 108." It's great advice.
27:14
Uh, if you believe that those things are correlated, then absolutely go to the miss the playoff market. If you believe that the, that it's a, it's a this cause and effect kind of thing for that.
27:26
Uh, not only do we get tweets, we also have texts that go on throughout the show. We're in a group text, me, Felika, Will Hill, Steve Fezzik, and Todd Wishnev.
27:34
Here's just a brief exchange, uh, two, uh, one, one back and forth. Fezzik listening to the, uh, Megapod, "Todd interrupts too much." Todd, "I agree. Let's get Stevie and, and, and Will to be the regulars."
27:45
[laughs] A kind of a back, back and forth between each other. And then this is- [laughs]... uh, Steve Fezzik who says, and let me just start Stevie with this.
27:52
By the way, Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, in studio, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Steve says, "I hate Starbucks. Am I allowed to explain that?
28:01
At Jackpots and their selection of food is so much better and cheaper prices." Hello, sir. There's a new h- head guy at Starbucks, and he's, like, doing all this stuff like he's gonna analyze his company.
28:12
CEO you're talking about. Yeah. Yeah. How about this? How about have one really good food item instead of nothing but crap that's eight, eight, $8 bad old bagels? Just one.
28:23
Have, like, one of these, like, they have these little Cinnabons at Jackpot. Yeah. Oh, they look glorious. Why, why do you... Kelly had the, the proper, uh, comeback to this.
28:30
He said, "Why does Steve insist on getting food at Starbucks?" It's free. [laughs] I get a $10 food comp at Caesars- Oh, that's what it is...
28:37
and I get, I get four free dr- drinks, and I get a $10 food comp, and I, I'm a wizard at this, and I can't get anything I like 'cause their food is terrible.
28:44
Um, so if you're listening, Starbucks, get one, like, freshly made breakfast sandwich like the Dunkin' Donuts has the meal deal. They have a great breakfast sandwich, way better than Starbucks. All right.
28:53
Uh, here's again Steve Fezzik's tweets providing us with these segments. Oh, dear. Uh, not his tweets, pardon me, his texts. The, we're not doing the tweets, for God's sakes. No.
29:01
Uh, "Let's discuss why the Dan Campbell late game decision to go." As everything with Steve's texts, he voices them, so none of it makes any sense, but you wanna describe, you wanna talk about Dan Campbell.
29:10
Yeah, so the, the very last decision, I'm gonna make the case it, it's a total slam dunk.
29:14
Excellent points that people are saying Detroit's a dead not over team, so they going for it more, even if they're favored, makes a lot of sense for this team as opposed to a defensive team, but boom, we're in the moment there.
29:26
Let's say we kick the field goal, and let's assume we're gonna make it all the time just to simplify all the analysis. I would say, okay, Detroit's up three, Green Bay gets the ball.
29:34
They probably win, it feels like about 70%. Would you, does that seem like a reasonable number- Okay... at that point in time? Sure, yeah. Make Detroit, like, minus 250. Yeah. Um, Green Bay plus 200. Okay.
29:43
Okay, so let's use the 70%. Now let's go for it, okay? How often are we gonna make it if we go for it? If we, if we get it, we win. I would say we'll get it about two-thirds of the time.
29:52
Okay, so right off the bat, we're gonna win, play 100 times, we're gonna win 67. Mm. But there's gonna be 33 times that we don't get it, but we don't lose when we don't get it.
29:59
It just, the game continues, and Green Bay does become the favorite to win. I would say of those 33 games, maybe Green Bay goes 20 and 13. I'm, I'm throwing numbers out of my you know what. Yeah.
30:09
But the point is cr- im- just put em- input your own numbers. It doesn't matter if you use any reasonable assumptions. So of those 100 games, when they fail on the field goal, Detroit's still gonna win 13.
30:19
So 67 plus 13, that's 80%. Yeah. Detroit's gonna win 80% if they go for it. They're only gonna win, like, 70% if they kick the field goal. It's not even close. It's so far apart, you have to go for it.
30:30
I agree with you 100% on the, on the last one. Agree with you 100%. Are, are there, is there a big groundswell of people who thought he, what he did was wrong? I don't know. Oh, there was...
30:39
Well, I, in the moment, the announcers always- Yeah... are, are, are sissies, so they're all like- [laughs]... "Oh, I can't believe they're not kicking the field goal." Sissies.
30:46
[laughs] Um, but do you agree with my overall-... sentiment, which is that's fine on that particular one.
30:53
But earlier he went for it fourth and short in his own territory, and my big fear as someone who has Lions tickets, right, match-ups in the Super Bowl, is that, and it did last year in the NFC Championship, is that Dan Campbell doesn't really do this in any w- way other at this point than, "Uh, this is my brand, I gotta go for it."
31:14
Uh- He's Chris Moneymaker. He's hyper-aggressive. I'm all in. Yes. And he- He doesn't do, use analytics... and- He's just aggressive...
31:20
and because they are more often than not going to actually be the, quote-unquote, "better team," right, who's gonna be a pre-flop favorite, let's just judge it by that,
31:29
that in some weird way he is, he is more likely to open the door for a lesser opponent doing it that way. I just- The Falcons could beat him, not that they're making the playoffs, but- Right...
31:39
i- but with the, that sort of introduction of variance, and what was fascinating about the San Francisco loss is going in they were a big underdog, the Lions, so they should've been hyper-aggressive and go for it, go for it, go for it.
31:50
But now, now we get to late in the third quarter and the th- we've s- we've flipped the switch. Yes. Now it's the Lions that are the nine points favorite. That's right.
31:58
And now you don't want variance, kick the field goal. That's my point. Yeah, exactly. Yes, yes. No, that's h- it's exactly how I see it.
32:04
Again, I say this, I know Lions fans are like, "Oh, g- " No, I'm doing it from a perspective of I've got tickets on your team. I got ti- that's what worries me about him.
32:11
Uh, and the Green Goblin meme is, [laughs] is a great one because it's like, "You're, you're not gonna go for this, Dan Campbell? What kind of, you know, what kind of weakling are you?" kind of thing.
32:21
So I- By the way, shout out to my South Point runner number five that did, you know, make- [laughs]... an appearance on your show. That's right. [laughs] How many of those do you think you have? 'Cause he was like 47342.
32:30
I mean, it was a, is he just standing in line? Probably be easier just to let me bet, but yeah. Uh- Not, n- I'm not, not above my pay grade.
32:36
Here's another one, and then we're gonna get to, inevitably we're gonna get to Steve's, uh, look-ahead plays and what he has for this weekend. But you make a point, um,
32:43
Seattle, Arizona, you say on the total here no one shoulda gotten this, w- what was your phraseology here on this? Oh, no, the, the, the game last night. The game last night. Oh, n- last night.
32:53
So the, the, I talk about asymmetric risk, and what that, what does that mean? Fancy word. Don't lay minus three and a half early in the betting cycle.
33:00
Don't play plus two and a half, because I can tell you, Gilly, there have been plus two and a halves I'm like, "There's no way, as sure as the sun comes up tomorrow, there's no way I could possibly get Pit- the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three hosting the Jets."
33:13
And then what happens? Hmm? Pittsburgh's plus two and a half, and it goes to plus three. All the time, just the vagaries of line moves and the like, so where I'm going here is that
33:21
the only time I would ever lay minus three and a half is one second before the game kicks off. I would w- always wait, so with the Lions, if you waited, you got the push, came down to the three right at post.
33:31
So, um, you should not have lost with the Lions, but if you bet Green Bay, you had plenty of time to lock in plus three and a half, especially here in Vegas, even at minus 110.
33:39
And so you should have won if you bet Green Bay, and should have pushed if you bet the Lions on the game last night. Uh, is, does that kind of stuff, does... I, I w- we generalize that category.
33:50
The ability to analyze the market and line movement, uh, of the market, is that your biggest pet peeve, would you say, about the, the, the general voter, that they don't understand? Oh, I've got dozens of pet peeves.
34:03
I, I know you, I'm talking about- Um- Not, T- Twitter Fezz I know has 35 things. All but one. I'm talking about per, you know, real-life Fezzik. Is that the thing that bothers you the most? Uh, yes.
34:12
The, um- It's up there... it, it, it, it's up there, and just that, that w- I, when we debate things that people think that's Fezzik's p- opinion, okay? Yeah. And it's like, it's not my opinion.
34:21
You take 100 geeks from the University of Chicago and you ask them this question, that are professional sports bettors, and all 100 are going to, you know, side with, "Well, this is the math.
34:31
Of course Campbell should go for it in this situation." Yeah. Yep. Um, okay, how many look-aheads do you have? I have five. How many from this week do you have? I have three.
34:40
Okay, three from this week, three week 14 bets this weekend in the National Football League, and five look-aheads. Lot of action. Week 15. A lot of action. In the National Football League. The man is an action junkie.
34:52
[laughs] That's what we think about you, Steve. We're like, "What an action junkie that guy is." [laughs] Uh, Steve Fezzik, @fezziksports on Twitter. We never say your Twitter handle. @fezziksports on Twitter.
35:00
That's the evil Fezzik. All of those plays right on the other side. That is the evil Fezzik. Tread lightly with that guy. Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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