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Feb 14, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 13, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 13, 2025
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34:31
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Transcript
0:00
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0:56
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, welcome into a Numbers Game.
1:13
He's Kelly Bedell, and I'm Joe Cirillo, getting ready to take you through this Thursday morning as we gear up for the weekend ahead. Kelly, a lot of NBA action last night. Can't say the same for the weekend ahead- Yes...
1:25
but we'll have, you know, the Slam Dunk Contest, the All-Star Game. Are you an All-Star Game bettor? This tells me a lot about someone's personality. Uh, it's a great question. Uh, All-Star Game bettor?
1:35
No, not for, not for the past few years. Have different format once again this year, so I don't even really know if there's gonna be good betting possibilities for that.
1:44
Now, the Three-Point Contest, I'll, I'll get involved with. It, it, it- Now, you're, you're gonna be sitting there Saturday night eating a thing of Domino's and just firing away three point contest bets.
1:52
Oh, come on, we can do better than Domino's, man. Come on. I would hope. I, unless- Unless you want to sponsor this show, Domino's- [laughs]... then I'd love you.
1:57
Uh [laughs] I, I think that's what my high school Saturday nights used to look like, Domino's and firing away, you know, Three-Point Contest and Dunk Contest bets.
2:03
The, the, uh, uh, look, Three-Point Contest, I'll usually pick two or three guys a- a- and then just, uh, and ride with that. 'Cause I think there is, uh, like, you could at least handicap that a little bit.
2:13
You can look at stats from the season, wide open three-point attempts, who's shooting what, and, yeah, it's a little bit more of a gut feel thing, and it's smaller bets.
2:20
I'm not saying it's a huge, great betting opportunity. But it's, uh, it's one I like to get involved with. And then you watch the other nonsense that goes on. I, I mean, it also is- The Skills Challenge...
2:29
about your only option Saturday night. If you're not a college hoops guy, I obviously am, Kelly not so much. Yep.
2:33
If you're not a college hoops guy, that might be your only option Saturday night to get some action out there. Uh, might as well have been a three-point shootout at Madison Square Garden- Mm-hmm... last night.
2:42
Knicks-Hawks overtime, and, uh, they don't call it under time, guys. 149-148 the final there at MSG. I thought the Knicks early were gonna run away with that one, Kelly. Yeah, it was look- And then Atlanta just lingered.
2:54
Yeah, it was looking like that. And man, it was so much s- too, way too many games, way too many games. We don't ever get- We never need every team in action.
3:01
Like, there was, I, you know, you and I were joking about it, we'll get to it, and I'm like, I'm watching Thunder and the Thunder game, and don't even realize this ga- this game is going like this at the end, where it's, uh, becoming a tie game and going to overtime.
3:13
I have to switch it over for OT. Uh, but yeah, it just a cra- a crazy high-scoring game, Knicks-Hawks. We expected it to be, uh, you know, a good one.
3:21
We talked about that yesterday, and it was like, "Yeah, we both got a lead, Knicks, but I'm not laying the points with what we've seen Trae do, uh, in the Garden before." So yeah, great game.
3:29
Knicks come on, uh, come out on top. Yeah, I was thinking Knicks would win.
3:32
I was leaning Atlanta plus the eight because of the spot for the Knicks traveling back from Indy and coming, g- you know, coming home, second leg of a back to back.
3:39
One interesting trend that in the second half I think we need to start paying attention to, Knicks starters on the back end of a back to back, uh, their numbers are through the roof going over.
3:49
Points numbers, Brunson averaging over 30, KAT averaging about 35, all in the second leg of a back to back. That's interesting.
3:57
Uh, I actually thought you were gonna go maybe bring up that they were, that they were giving up more points, just because those guys play so many minutes already.
4:03
Well, in, in this game they did, but no, they're scoring a ton- Okay... in the second leg of a back to back, and it showed again.
4:08
Brunson had 36 in the win, Karl-Anthony Towns had 44, 10 boards, double double, Josh Hart 18, 10 boards, double double. Uh, it was just, you know, an offensive outburst for the Knicks. Mm-hmm.
4:18
Coming off a game in Indy where, uh, I believe one of our guests yesterday made the great point, kind of an emotional game at, at the Pacers. Obviously, it's a regular season spot in early February.
4:28
But still, given the history between the two teams, their rivalry in the playoffs, kind of an emotional spot.
4:33
You could've seen this being a letdown, and it almost was in the second half, but collected themselves, got the win in OT. Yep.
4:38
Yeah, I mean, honestly, two, two big games for the, for the Knicks, uh, back to back with, uh, just the Eastern Conference and how it's shaping up.
4:45
Uh, a- and yes, with what has happened with these teams and the Knicks before in the past. Now, Oklahoma City, you mentioned your best bet- Yeah... laying 13 and a half. That was pretty sweat free, huh? Got there easily?
4:54
Okay, I got 12 and a half, Joe, so it was really easy, okay? Oh, excuse me.
4:58
[laughs] But no, the, uh, it was one of those games, one of those classic bets of, okay, we, we say this all the time, but I'm sorry, I'm gonna say it again.
5:04
We all love to complain about the bad beats and close losses we have. Remember when you get lucky and get one home that you should not and, and had no business getting home. Thunder was that for me last night.
5:15
The Miami Heat scored eight points i- uh, in the fourth quarter, and, uh, if you had team total under on Miami, you got there. If you had Oklahoma City laying the points, you got there.
5:26
I, it, it just, it, ridiculous fourth quarter. I couldn't believe they, I couldn't believe it. I was watching it and was like, "Is this really gonna have a chance?" And they actually got home.
5:33
So that was, uh, that was a good one for the evening, and, uh, we'll, uh, I'll take that kind of luck every time, Joe. I, it, it's one of those, it's still lucky, you gotta remember it.
5:42
But it was kind of part of the handicap, was we knew the Heat were dealing with some illness flying around. They had multiple guys out because of it.
5:48
I think no shocker when you get to the second half, they were, they looked dead tired, uh, and especially in that fourth quarter were not able to do anything against this OKC team.
5:55
And you did, to your credit, we were talking about two teams in this respect, Boston and Oklahoma City.
5:59
And you pointed out that these two teams, 'cause I had mentioned the Celtics game potentially playing the first half, they were laying five against San Antonio. That got there with ease, full game got there as well.
6:09
But you had mentioned that the way that the Celtics and Thunder are constructed, if the game is close after three quarters, they can just completely run away with it- Right... in the fourth. Yep.
6:18
And so that did, you know, I, I don't know if that's exactly how we thought the Thunder-Heat game was gonna play out, but it did get you home- Yeah... in that case. Exactly. Yep. No, no, it absolutely is.
6:25
It's just they're so, they're so, both teams so deep, so much talent. And, and you go up against some of these other teams, Miami, Miami a good example, especially when they have a couple guys out.
6:33
You're already a little short on talent and what's available in your starting lineup, and then when you go to compare benches, uh, just OKC, what they can throw out ya, throw at you is overwhelming.
6:41
How about that Houston-Phoenix game? Two cold teams coming into play. The Suns up by eight going into the fourth quarter, and Houston laying six and a half outscores them by 16 in the fourth quarter, 35-19.
6:54
Not only do they get home with the win, they get there with the cover as well, an eight-point win for a team that was trailing by eight going into the last quarter. Yeah, it was impressive.
7:02
I mean, this is, you know, we brought it, we've brought it up the past couple days, but definitely if you're betting NBA, you gotta bookmark a couple of these teams to keep your eye on.
7:10
I, we, it's easy for us to forget about things when we hit this All-Star break and we don't play basketball for almost a week. Um, when we come back, it's bookmark things like where are the Phoenix Suns at?
7:20
Where are the Dallas Mavericks at? Where are some of these teams at that, uh, you know, we had a lot of questions about and, and honestly, I've been fading, uh, you know, the Suns and the Mavericks.
7:28
And that, you know, go over to the Dallas Golden State game.
7:31
Okay, Mavericks end up playing, uh, playing well and getting a W, and I, honestly, Joe, I think that changed my mind a little bit about Mavs going forward with what they were able to do last night of just, a, you know, outside of really one game, they've, they've, they've fought.
7:43
They've at least fought in almost every one of these games so far, uh, without AD, without Luka, and, uh, it's, it's been impressive.
7:50
So I, I know I was talking about kind of looking at them as being a fade candidate for me going forward, but let's see what an All-Star break does. You get some time for these guys to coll- recollect their thoughts.
7:59
I think it's going back to Phoenix with Kevin Durant, all the trade rumors and everything going around.
8:04
I'm sure that guy has not been a ha- happy camper the past week or so, but okay, now you get a week to chill out, relax, recollect yourself. Especially with the Phoenix Suns, we know how much talent they have.
8:13
Can you actually put it together on the basketball court is the big question. So I think it's couple of, you know, bookmark these ki- type of notes for when we get back to, in action next week.
8:21
It, it's funny that you beat me to the Kevin Durant stuff, 'cause my next question I was gonna ask you is how frustrated do you think that guy is right now?
8:29
42 minutes last night, which I feel like is uncharacteristically- Mm... a dash high for him. 37 points, 5 boards, 9 assists, also uncharacteristically high for him.
8:37
But listen to the rest of the starting five he's working with. Royce O'Neale, Nick Richards, Bol Bol, Tyus Jones. Yeah. I mean, is that what he signed up for in Phoenix? [laughs] Right, exactly. Yeah, exactly. So yeah.
8:49
It's, uh, these are the type of things. We gotta see how he... The, the problem is Durant, is once he gets on the court, he's still Kevin Durant. You know? Right.
8:55
It's just, uh, you know, we'll see if anything ha- more happens off the court. I, I mean, it couldn't save them in the fourth quarter, though.
9:00
They went into that with an eight-point lead, end up squandering that lead and losing the game, not even covering. Uh, Golden State, Dallas, you mentioned that game.
9:09
Do the Mavericks deserve more credit, or do the Warriors deserve more criticism after a game like that? Man, I think it's...
9:16
I, I'm gonna, I'll, I'll go a, a little bit of both, which I guess is the, uh, the easy way out. But I- Kelly's running for office over here... yeah, I'm gonna go Dallas more credit, though.
9:22
I'll give, I'll give Dallas more credit. Way to step up y- and get a W here after everything that's happened the past couple weeks.
9:28
I think Golden State, and we're g- we're, we're gonna talk about it next segment [laughs] but I think Golden State hosting the All-Star game, I think maybe that was the prime candidate, and I whiffed on this completely.
9:40
I, I laid five and got out to eight, closed at eight with Golden State- Wow... so a lot of people whiffed on this.
9:45
I think Golden State's thinking about hosting an All-Star game in San Francisco and not really enjoying being on the road right now, and, uh, we- they need a week for them, for them to get their team together here and go forward.
9:56
Is it bad that I had no idea this weekend's All-Star game was in Golden State? Mm, no. I had no clue. No. That, that's how little I pay attention to the NBA All-Star game.
10:04
[laughs] I feel like- I don't even know the format this year. Kelly, what is the format? It's, I feel like we're now in the rotation, too, with the, like, uh, you know, like the Pro Bowl.
10:10
I've gotta double-check every year, too, where I'm like, "We're not- We do that in Orlando now, right? Yeah, like, we're not going back to Hawaii or anything, right? We're just in Orlando now and everything.
10:17
So yeah, we'll, we'll talk to All-Star game a little bit more tomorrow. But they, yeah, they've, we've redone formats where they're drafting teams and all that stuff. Yeah, what is the format? Is it four teams?
10:25
It's, it's four teams. I'll have to pull up all the details. Yeah. I don't even know them off the top of my head. That'll be for tomorrow, for sure. This makes sense, you guys.
10:31
What do you think about Kyrie moving forward? Can Kyrie single-handedly will this team? It's a great question.
10:36
It's a great question, 'cause it's, it is the question when it comes to the Dallas Mavericks, and I think from the basketball player standpoint that we've seen on the court, Kyrie Irving, yeah, he can.
10:46
And, and, it, it, lo- one of the big knocks about the Luka trade was, man, so much of this team was constructed to play around Luka Dončić.
10:53
Now, a lot of that still applies for Kyrie Irving, but it, you are asking him to just do an incredible amount on the basketball court, both, both scoring and assisting the ball, uh, running this offense completely.
11:08
I, it, it's just, it's tough. I think Kyrie's that good of a player that, that yeah, he can do that, but not to have the o- the other surrounding talent, uh, to take them to another level is gonna be the problem.
11:19
Kelly, how about this Lakers-Utah game? 131-119, Jazz get their 13th win. Uh, I mean, how concerned should you be? Obviously, Luka's minutes still restricted, only played 23. Mm.
11:30
But if, if you're the Lakers, you expect to blow them out of the water, a team like Utah. How, how concerned should LA be?
11:36
Yeah, and, um, I don't think a ton, except, except for I'll keep going back to at the center position. My double double didn't get home with, uh, Walker Kessler. I know, I was tracking that for you.
11:45
Yeah, with Walker Kessler, but he was still a beast inside with six blocks.
11:48
It's just th- these are the type of things that they're gonna have, uh, they, they're gonna have some problems with, with some of the bigs that they go up against.
11:54
So it's, the, a- as far as the Lakers' offense and Luka Dončić and all that, I'm not worried about that at all. Let's give it time. Uh, that will come together.
12:02
It's just, uh, do they have the right team makeup for this to go forward? I mean, this was not the plan.
12:07
The plan was to add, uh, Mark Williams, uh, uh, before the, before the trade deadline and go forward with a real center in your lineup, but they don't- Yeah... they're not really, they don't really have that right now.
12:17
No, they're definitely lacking size down low. Folks, we've got a great rest of the show coming up. How about these guests we've got to round out our number one?
12:24
More NBA talk with Vsan's own Zach Cohen coming up in about 20 minutes. Then Phil Bobbitt, motorsports handicapper, gonna break down everything you need to know about the Daytona 500.
12:35
On the other side, we'll look at last night's college hoops card, and I'll already start dishing out some best bets in college basketball for the night to come. It's a numbers game. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo.
12:45
Don't go anywhere[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:03
Folks, sports betting never slows down, and neither should you.
13:05
With the Daytona 500 coming up this weekend, the NBA and NHL seasons in full swing, the PGA Tour underway, and March Madness, as well as the MLB season right around the corner, there is no shortage of action to wager on just 'cause football's over.
13:21
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13:24
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13:36
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13:46
I'm Joe Serallo alongside Kelly Bidlin, and getting ready to take you back to the progressive guest line with that Daytona 500 just days away.
13:55
Who better to break it down with than our friend Phil Bobbitt, motorsports handicapper from over at CBS Sportsline. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at SpeedwaySteve2. Phil, how are you today?
14:06
Thanks for hopping on, man. Good morning, fellas. I am thrilled to be here. It's the start of NASCAR season. I'm excited. Let's get some winners in the, in the account. Yeah, we're getting- Oh...
14:14
the season started, and, you know, speaking of winners, not just this weekend, how about for the full season? You've got a couple futures to, uh, start us off with. We've got a couple plus money winners here.
14:23
We're, we're gonna go with Chase Briscoe over one and a half wins. You can find that at Bett Rivers. Uh, we like Chase this year. It could be his breakout season.
14:31
He's upgrading into a JGR Toyota from a lame duck Stewart-Haas wagon. He won twice in that lesser equipment in the past years. Bad stuff. This is a big performance bump.
14:45
Martin Truex, who retired, was in that car last year. He won 16 times in six years in that car. We like Chase Briscoe over one and a half wins. The next one we like is Shane van Gisbergen under one and a half wins.
14:58
That's plus 112 over at Bett Rivers. This guy is irrelevant on the oval, so you can throw 30 races out the window. There are only six that matter to him. He's one of the best road course racers in the world.
15:10
The ovals are a different beast. He's just not ready. Um, we think he's gonna win one, but he won't win two. Phil, it's awesome having you back.
15:18
Just a reminder for everybody listening out there, if it's your first time catching Phil, he, uh, he, he reached out to us.
15:23
We brought him on before the first F1 Vegas, and I don't even know how many bets he gave out, Phil. I think the story I tell is you gave out, like, 12, and you hit 11 of them or something like that. It was insane.
15:32
So, uh, Phil Bob, it's always our go-to, uh, racing guy here on a numbers game. Um, so look, I need you to break this down. We got Daytona 500. We know it's huge this weekend. We have the...
15:41
We brought you on today though because we've got the Duels going tonight, right? This is gonna help set up the order for Sunday. Walk us through all that and then your bets for tonight. Sure.
15:50
Uh, qualifying was last night, and that set the front row. Uh, then these Duels, there's two 60-lap, uh, races, they're like little sprints, and they'll set the qualifying order for three through 40.
16:02
So, uh, there's two of those races tonight. The first one, we like a little sprinkle on Austin Dillon at 22 to one. The guy's an absolute knucklehead, um, so y- just so you know what you're getting into here.
16:14
[laughs] The price is probably right. But he did win the 2018 Daytona 500. He also won at Daytona in the spring of 2022. He's got RCR power under the hood.
16:24
They always bring good equipment to, to these super speedway tracks. 22 to one has some value, so sprinkle that. We like the Duel 2 a little bit better though. Uh, there's a lot of strong Fords in the field.
16:36
They should control the race. We will see a green flag pit stop, so, uh, the Chevys will be at a, a, a bit of a disadvantage.
16:43
They only have Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Shane van Gisbergen, and Daniel Suarez in the field, so the Fords have a lot more numbers to work with, which is huge.
16:52
So we like Austin Cindric at 10 to one at Caesars, Chris Buescher 11 to one at DraftKings, Noah Gregson 25 to one at DraftKings.
16:59
You can dutch those together in an equal manner and get plus 370 for, for the trio of those guys. Those are all strong, strong Fords, and we'd like them to get it done tonight in Duel number two.
17:11
So Phil, you're talking to me about the strong Fords in this field. I just learned yesterday for the first time that in golf you can bet on the top golfer of a certain country, a certain nationality. That was news to me.
17:22
Now I'm learning you can bet on a, a top car based on manufacturer. So you're talking about all these Fords. Do you have a play for the top Ford this weekend? Uh, I do. I do.
17:33
Uh, the top Ford, we're going a little bit further down the board here. 16 to one, we're taking Noah Gregson. Um, we like Noah a lot, and we, we talked about him on a numbers game before.
17:43
He's the kind of guy that if he wins, he's gonna climb the fence and, and just slam a beer. So he's our kind of guy.
17:48
Um, Noah is also stepping out of that Stewart-Haas, uh, wagon from last year, so it was kind of a, a middling car into a front row motorsports car, which is excellent at these super speedways.
18:01
Um, he has led at Daytona before, uh, last year. He led in Talladega as well last year. Um, he's, he's, he's a, a really, really good super speedway driver. Uh, he, he started 37th in 2022, finished ninth.
18:17
Uh, he started 38th last year. Uh, oh, I'm sorry, and then he finished ninth. He finished third in, in, um, 2022. So we like Noah to, to get out front, um, lead the Fords. Maybe he gets it done.
18:29
He's also plus 240 for a top 10. Yeah, top 10 and the top Ford, uh, for Phil on that one. Phil, I'm just gonna let... I'm gonna tee you up on this one, man.
18:36
You got fi- uh, five outright bets it looks like for the Daytona 500. About plenty of other bets, top 10s, match-ups, everything.
18:44
Uh, just talk us through your outright bets a- and anything else on the board you wanna hit on. Sure thing.
18:49
So the Daytona 500, um, I wish it was a, a lit- a little bit more predictable, but, you know, it's the first race of the year, everybody's excited, you're probably gonna watch it with your buddies.
18:58
So we wanna get a portfolio of guys, that way you have somebody standing at the end, because there's inevitably a huge wreck, somebody'll make a mistake and take out half the field, so you gotta have lots of bullets in the gun.
19:09
So we're gonna take Chase Elliott, there's a rogue 18 to one at BetMGM right now. Uh, we're taking his teammate William Byron at 20 to one at FanDuel. Alex Bowman, 35 to one at DraftKings.
19:20
Justin Haley, um, that's a, a, a name that you might not know, but he won a rain delayed, uh, speedway, super speedway race before, um, and he's 55 to one at DraftKings.
19:31
And then we're also taking Front Row Motorsports, that's a trio of Zane Smith, Todd Gilliland, and our guy Noah Gregson. You can dutch all those guys together and get plus 360.
19:41
That way you're g- at least gonna have somebody in the fight, um, because these super speedway races are just so hard to get a winner home. We think this is the best way to do it.
19:49
A little, little scatter shot for the outright winners. I like it. Now, Phil, talk to us about positionals. You've got a plus money positional prop here.
19:57
How do you go about capping those, and what's your favorite one for the Daytona? All right. So our favorite one, and we, we like this a lot, it's Martin Truex under 19 and a half. So we need him to finish 19th or better.
20:09
It's plus 130 at Caesars. They, they hung this this morning, so it, that's a current number. Uh, but he's a retired guy. Uh, this is his first week of retirement and he's spending it in a race car.
20:19
Um, so since the next gen car's introduction in 2022, uh, which is a new design of the car, he's finished inside the top 20 at Daytona four out of the six races.
20:29
Uh, when you include all the super speedway dates back to 2022, he's 12 for 18 inside the top 20. So a plus money price gives us a huge edge here. We've got him projected between 14 and 17.
20:42
Um, this car, it's racing under the TriCon Garage banner, which is a very, very small truck team, but it's a Toyota. He ra- raced with, uh, Joe Gibbs Racing in the past. This is a Joe Gibbs prepared car.
20:55
Those Toyotas look good. In a 40 car field, we like his experience. Give us Martin Truex under 19 and a half.
21:02
Hey, Phil, I, I, I'm gonna talk to you through how I'm gonna bet Daytona, and you can tell me whether I'm an idiot or not, 'cause I do this every year now for like the past three years.
21:10
I just wait for like 100 laps to go by, a couple crashes occur, and then I just get involved live.
21:15
I look for one of the bigger names, he's drifted back in the pack, I can get a longer number on him, and maybe I'll add one or two of those and hope they survive to the end. But so many crashes that come into play here.
21:25
I, I... Is this a better live betting event than most NASCAR races? Yeah, it sure is. Um, i- in fact, like even the first 100 laps don't matter.
21:34
These guys are, are gonna be f- saving fuel for the majority of it, so it's gonna look cool on TV, but they're not going full out until very late in, in the, the race here. So that brings us to another prop.
21:45
I like the lap 190 leader to win the race, yes, plus 400 at Caesars. This'll make sure you have a dog in the fight, Kelly. Um, and the way this new car is designed, passing is incredibly difficult.
21:57
It's hard to get momentum going to complete a pass. When they get strung out single file, they, they can't build the momentum. So, um, this is, this race is normally won from the front row late.
22:08
Give us the lap 190 leader plus 400 yes. Okay. Phil, before we let you go, final 45 seconds or a minute here.
22:15
Kelly just mentioned, you know, that this race has a lot of crashes usually, and that there's some big cluster. I- is that a market that you can get in on? Is there an over under set on crashes in this?
22:23
Joe just wants to... Yeah I, I mean, I'm not a NASCAR guy. I'm waiting for someone to turn right. He just wants to bet the yeah, uh, the over yes on the crashes. Yeah. Is, is there a market for that?
22:30
'Cause I went to one race in my life, and the Clash at the Coliseum, there must have been over 10 crashes, no exaggeration, in that race. Uh, there is. That's not a, a, a market that we cap in NASCAR.
22:40
It's one that we cap in, uh, F1, so you'll have to have us back for the, uh, the, the crash market. If it, if there was, it would be minus 8,000 yes- [laughs]... for, for this race. It's, it's gonna happen.
22:52
I got two more quick ones I wanna get out before we go. Yeah, yeah. Please do. Uh, in a match up over at Caesars, we're gonna take Ford over Chevrolet, because this is a numbers game, Kelly.
23:01
Uh, we've got five Fords projected in our top seven, uh, so that's just... Uh, there's just so many of them. We think they're gonna beat Chevrolet. So Ford over Chevy minus 105 at Caesars.
23:11
We also like William Byron over Brad Keselowski. In these match up bets we like cruisers, not bruisers, and Brad Keselowski normally has his snowplow on the front bumper in these super speedway races.
23:22
We like William Byron to get it done minus 110 at ESPN. Great stuff from our guy Phil Bobb at check his work out over at CBS Sports Line @SpeedwaySteve2 on Twitter. Phil, thanks for the time.
23:34
When we come back, we'll look at some NFL next team odds. It's a numbers game with Kelly Bedell and Joe Serallo. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:53
Numbers game continues alongside Kelly Bedell and I'm Joe Serallo, and we're excited to take you folks to our progressive guest line here as we welcome in our friend from the field of 68, former NBA player and absolute stud at the University of North Carolina, John Henson, joining us now on the progressive guest line.
24:11
John, thanks so much for the time. How you doing today? I'm good, man. How are you guys? Fantastic now that you're here, man.
24:16
I'm excited to talk college hoops with you, and, you know, maybe on, on not the most excited note, we've gotta start off talking about your UNC Tar Heels. Mm.
24:24
Because you were there during a period of absolute excellence, where winning was the expectation- [laughs]... it was the norm. And, you know, i- it's been a very tumultuous, very up and down last four years there.
24:37
You go from runner-up in Hubert Davis's first season, Sweet 16 a year ago, but now it's looking like years two and probably four might result in this team not making the tournament.
24:48
So I've gotta ask you, how hot is that seat getting for coach? I, I, I think, you know, it's warm right now.
24:56
Um, he's probably allowed himself another year because they're gonna kind of revamp the front office, quote-unquote, "Get a GM," and- Right... you know, try to get with the times.
25:07
You know, North Carolina is a very old school place. We do things the old school way and, and that just is not gonna work in this day of college basketball, and then they're finding that out very quickly. All right.
25:19
Well, they just hired Bill Belichick. Come on, John. [laughs] They're being... They're very forward- And, and, and-... thinking right now...
25:24
and let me tell you, the Bill Belichick hire, uh, you know, you know, internally was done kinda... Went, they went kind of behind the AD's back a little bit and, and kind of like, you know, Proposition Bill.
25:35
So it's a lot going on over there. Ooh. Oh, wow. All right. A little inside- A lot of juice going on... stuff. I like it. I- It was like two, half or one...
25:41
yeah, I mean, I thought it was a progressive hire in terms of his girlfriend. [laughs] But maybe not so much in terms of Bill. That's right. [laughs] Well, she, she'll be able to blend in at the local bars- [laughs]...
25:49
so I'm sure it'll, it'll get you. She's still going to the Chi Omega parties, John. Exactly. Come on, you know what that's about. Exactly. John, I'm pumped to have you on.
25:55
I think I know the answer to this question, but you got a big college basketball guy next to me, a big NBA guy here- Mm-hmm... as far as betting goes every single night.
26:02
Now, are you more r- often recognized as former North Carolina great or former Milwaukee Buck great? Because that's what I think of when I think John Edson. I, I'm, I'm recognized a lot more as a North Carolina guy.
26:16
Um, but if you're a Milwaukee- Shame on Milwaukee... if you're a Milwaukee fan, like, like, when I see Milwaukee fans, they, like, you know, run up to me. They're like, "Oh my God," like, you know.
26:26
So it's, uh, it, it just depends. But, uh, I get North Carolina a lot more, especially, like, down south. Uh, m- up north, there's more of an NBA, you know- Yeah... that's why I got my NBA chops. Makes sense.
26:36
The south is- Makes sense, yes... dominated by college sports. Right now the SEC- Yes... dominating college hoops. John, I wanna ask you about the upcoming game Saturday, Auburn, Alabama.
26:46
We don't have a line yet out on the game. I'd have to imagine this one's gonna be floating right around a pick 'em. Mm-hmm. So I'm looking at it from a slightly different angle.
26:54
To win the SEC regular season title, Auburn is currently a pretty sizable favorite, minus 240 for Auburn in that market. Alabama's plus 220.
27:05
If this one's gonna be about a pick 'em on the game as an individual contest, do you think it would make more sense to take Alabama to win the conference, to win the regular season at plus 220?
27:14
What are your thoughts on that bet, and what are your thoughts on this upcoming game?
27:17
Well, I, I do like that bet, but if you look at Alabama's schedule, I mean, Auburn is just the start of their problems right now- Yeah... what's going on. So definitely it, it's something to look at.
27:27
Um, and then as far as the game, I, I gotta go Auburn. I mean, I think they're, you know, by and large the best team along with Duke. Um, and they seem to rise to it, the occasion.
27:37
As soon as we kind of see the little doubt in there, they, they always kind of come through. And if I can get Auburn at a, as a pick 'em, I, I don't think we're gonna m- have many points with them.
27:46
I mean, if they do give us points, please, I'm gonna t- I'm gonna hammer them. But, um- [laughs]...
27:50
if I get Auburn as a pick 'em against Alabama, uh, who's kind of on a s- win streak, uh, I, I just can't see Auburn losing two out of three, you know? That, I don't, I don't think they're that type of team.
27:59
John, just looking at the futures board right now, you got Duke four to one, Auburn plus 425, Alabama plus 850, Houston 10 to one, everybody else longer than that.
28:08
Uh, it, are there a couple teams that have stuck out to you so far? I mean, an NCAA tournament, we all know, is wild when you get there and you just gotta win and win and advance. Uh, but is there- Mm-hmm...
28:16
a couple teams further down on the board you think could make some noise here once we get into the tournament? You know, I was super high on Iowa State.
28:23
All their metrics kind of lend you to see, believe that they're a top-tier team. Now, they've kind of fell back a little bit. But the numbers say Iowa State is a team to kind of look out for defensively and offensively.
28:37
And, you know, no one's talking about Texas Tech. They're surging right now. Not gonna say they're in the championship tier contenders, but, you know, they made that final four run last year kind of out the blue.
28:47
They, they've kind of got the same kind of look and, and, and feel, uh, as that team, final four team did. Yeah, just a really well-coached team also. Mm-hmm.
28:55
Uh, John, not the biggest slate tonight in terms of ranked match-ups. Got two top 25 teams in action. Maryland catching a point and a half at Nebraska, Memphis laying seven and a half at South Florida.
29:06
I'm in on some mid-major games. I've got two plays in the Summit League, South Dakota minus one and a half against Kansas City, Omaha catching nine and a half at South Dakota State. You have any action tonight?
29:16
Any mid-major games? Anything in those two ranked match-ups? Anything in tonight's board caught your eye?
29:21
You know, I'm gonna actually go to that, uh, South Florida game 'cause it's in Tampa, so I'll get to see those guys play and I, and live. Um, I don't love eight points on the road anywhere- Right...
29:32
especially a, kind of Memphis team that's could walk into that arena and see USF on the jersey and, um, you know, kind of maybe cruise. But I do like Maryland. Um- Okay... you know, the...
29:45
Obviously a tough place to play. As we know, Nebraska can, can beat you at their place. But I, I think Maryland is up for the challenge, and they've gotta start stacking some wins and in...
29:54
I think this is an important game to separate themselves in the Big Ten. And John, I wanna ask you about one, uh, one team in your conference, in the ACC over there. Mm-hmm.
30:01
Because I wasn't sure if their early season success was gonna translate into conference play. Clemson looks good. Yep. And this is a team that's had some tournament success in recent years.
30:11
They come off the big win against Duke. Everyone's saying Monday night's a letdown spot. I laid the four with them against your Tar Heels. I apologize for doing that. But- I'd do, I'd do two. [laughs] Okay.
30:21
[laughs] I mean, it was the ea- the game was over at halftime. Yeah. Yep. It was the, it was the easiest- Yep. Yep... win of the year. For sure. How far can this Clemson team go this year in March?
30:29
Well, you know, I have a, uh, Clemson game. I'm, I'm calling Clemson Florida State this weekend. Um, so I've actually done a deep dive these last few days on Clemson, and they're really good.
30:38
They got four guys that can shoot over 40%... That shoot 40% or better from the three. They've got two great guards that complement each other, like kind of offensively and defensively in Hunter and Jayden Zachary.
30:49
They've got the big fella who's scored 20 the last two games. So Clemson, I mean, they, they're a really, really good team. And they defend. So they kind of have all that encompassing.
31:00
I mean, that's why they- You know, they beat Duke and, and, and they beat those teams at home. Uh, you know, I forget who else. Oh, Kentucky at home as well. So, you know, they're a force to be reckoned with.
31:11
Um, and then, you know, as far as this weekend, just for people that, you know, may wager on this game, Florida State's really bad at guarding the three. Clemson's really good at shooting the three.
31:20
Take that for what you- [laughs]... you know, would like and, uh, go from there. I love it. We got a Seminole sitting next to me right now. Yeah, you saying my Noles don't have a shot, John? Come on. Come on.
31:28
Listen, listen, I, I, the problem with Florida State is when you play them once... They played them once, they beat them by 20.
31:34
Florida State, once you play them, they, they, they get you with their size and their length when you play them once. Now, now that Clemson's played them twice, I think they're gonna be ready.
31:42
Um, Florida State coming off an emotional Wake Forest comeback as well. I don't know about your Seminoles, man. They're- It might be a long Saturday. Hey, we're, we're, we're turning the calendar over to baseball season.
31:52
It's a baseball school now, John. Right. Okay. It just always shifts. You know how that goes. Football, basketball. They're the football school right now, shoot. [laughs] Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
31:58
It just depends how, how the year's going. You guys know how it is. All right, let's, let's talk a little bit NBA, John. I wanna... We've talked a lot about the Western Conference. I want Eastern Conference.
32:06
You played a long time in the East. Yeah. The power rank, just the top three teams for me, 'cause I've, I have found this an interesting discussion between bettors.
32:14
I think everybody kind of agrees it's Boston, Cleveland, and New York. I...
32:18
Hopefully, one, do you agree with that, and two, what order would you put those three teams in as, as we're getting closer to the end of the season here and then heading into the playoffs?
32:26
Well, I, I, I would go, I would go Cleveland, Boston, New York. I, I- Okay... kind of been on Cleveland this whole year. Um, their record shows they're really good.
32:34
Um, the thing that you kinda only concerns with Cleveland is Boston's kinda got that, you know, we're cruising, we know who we are, we know where we wanna be. And so,
32:46
you know, in the playoffs, they could kinda do what the Warriors did when they won theirs, kinda like, you know, cruise on in. Boom, next thing you know, they're, they're whooping on everybody.
32:56
They're, they've been there before. They're healthy. Um, so I think it's gonna end up being Cleveland or Boston. I think Boston comes out of the East, though. Um, sorry for my Cavs. Those are my guys over there.
33:05
I played for a couple years. But, uh, I think Boston's got the experience, and they just keep on trucking, man. They keep on winning. Now, what about, what about your M- old Milwaukee squad? 'Cause this is, uh...
33:16
Old Milwaukee not just a beer, too. [laughs] But your Bucks squad, I mean, I'm one who says never count Giannis Antetokounmpo out. And when he's, uh, when he is playing, he's one of the best in the world.
33:25
You know that as well as anybody. I... Any confidence that this Bucks team can make some noise? For sure.
33:30
When Giannis gets healthy, I, I think Kuzma, you know, Khris Middleton is one of my best friends, but, you know, Kuzma's a upgrade. I mean, when Khris was injured, you know, he was getting older.
33:39
Um, all that long money he had, you know, he was just, he was just chilling. You know? So Kuzma's a guy that's coming in younger, you know, shoots the three at a high clip. He's more...
33:48
He's a bit more of a play maker as well, um, uh, off the ball. So I think for what he is, the Bucks got better, and it gives them a chance to go on a, go on a stretch run.
34:00
Um, but they're gonna have to see one of the three big dogs in the second round. So that, that could be tricky. John, really appreciate the time, man. Thanks so much for the insight. Thank you, man. Appreciate you guys.
34:08
Yeah. Follow him on Twitter @johnhenson31. Does terrific work over there at The Field of 68. Folks, that'll do it for our Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serallo. The great content at VSAN never ends, though.
34:19
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