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Feb 13, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | February 13, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | February 13, 2026
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46:09
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Transcript
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0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:03
[upbeat music] The Numbers Game here on VSiN, the eSports betting network.
1:09
So you're channel 158, YouTube TV, our very own VSiN Watchout, terrestrial stations across this great country of ours as we sit in here and make up the rules as we go because that's what we're allowed to do.
1:18
That's right. So we've decided that we're gonna go ahead and do... Because the, the golf draft yesterday didn't, didn't work out because we didn't take- It was a great idea.
1:28
We didn't- We maybe didn't figure out exactly how we were gonna grade stuff. That's the thing, and so I would hate to make you buy me a very expensive drink when we didn't really identify the rules.
1:37
Now, I did have the highest finisher of the people in the draft yesterday. Right. But he did not win the first round leader. And specifically not... And he didn't win first round leader on the course. Yeah.
1:49
'Cause there's two different courses, so it... Good idea. So we'll just void that one out. Good idea. Hey, we at least got a couple of our guys finished- Yes... like, top five, top 10 first round. Yeah.
1:57
So maybe some people tailed some of those out there. So we, uh, we will, we will just void that one out, but this one cannot be voided because there are only eight participants, and we're gonna go four apiece.
2:06
So I'm gonna lead things off here, and if you don't know where I'm going, then you didn't listen last time. I'm picking Damian Lillard. Pretty choice. The guy's been sitting at home.
2:14
He could probably win this thing left-handed if he wanted to. That's all he's been doing. He's just been shooting. He was shooting in a wheelchair.
2:20
He could probably at least finish in the top three of this thing from a wheelchair. He probably could. I, I, I do. I think he's- But I think they're gonna let him stand up, and I think he's gonna shoot well.
2:29
[laughs] And so I'm going Damian Lillard. I just, I can't get past that thought. Like, yeah, yes, you could say this guy is not in basketball shape, has not been playing with a team, uh, all that stuff.
2:38
But, like, I know he's got a mansion in Portland with a basketball court probably in it- I've said it-... that he's just been sitting there shooting... already.
2:45
I've seen these guys go gain 40 pounds whenever they retire, and then it'll just show 'em out on a court, and then the shot just still goes up. Like, yeah, they probably couldn't juke you anymore. Right.
2:55
They probably couldn't get to the hole on you. But if you just leave 'em standing there at the three-point line, they can still just drain 'em all day long. Okay, I've got one, one I know that I will be betting.
3:05
And y- yeah, I bet this almost every year. I usually pick two guys, have a little fun with it. Um, Tyrese Maxey I will be taking. Okay. He will be a guy I would definitely be betting.
3:15
And then I'm kind of deciding between a couple others. Uh, again, over 40% on wide open looks this year from three, uh, making the most of anybody in the field per game. [smacks lips] Uh, and then I will go...
3:28
Man, you know what? I'll ride the vibes of a good season for Jamal Murray. I will go Jamal Murray with my second pick. All right. Well, then I'm just gonna go, I'll go Con and then Donovan Mitchell. Yeah.
3:40
Um, I think one, just because I just love watching Con shoot the ball. I like your team better already. I just love watching Con shoot the ball. Like, he sh- I'd l- He... It is such a pure shot. Mm-hmm.
3:50
I just love watching him shoot the ball. And then I'll take, uh, I'll take Donovan Mitchell as a guy that I believe, if you look at the guys that I had remaining, I would take... I, I like him over B- Here's the problem.
4:00
I'm gonna end up with Portis. I was gonna say, I think, uh, Danny can just fill out the rest. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, so, so I'm gonna end up with Portis. So I can go ahead and just circle him. Was it...
4:07
Bobby was in this last year too, right? Like, that- Yeah, yeah. There's... Oh, we, we'll get three. So- No, we gotta do all four 'cause we gotta have a winner. It's okay. We can put, we can put- Yeah...
4:15
those on the graphic, Danny. Yeah. It's okay. We'll leave out the last couple. Uh, we'll just leave out the, the guys that we will definitely not be betting.
4:23
Uh, but we- Yeah, so you're, you're, you're taking Booker, Powell. I'm took, I'm taking Booker, Powell. I would rather bet... You know what? I'm gonna say I think Booker's got a better chance contending in this.
4:34
I don't think it's by much, though, and I actually think those odds are a little disrespectful for Norman Powell. So I- If you're the guy that's gonna stre- Mm-hmm...
4:40
like, if you're spreading out three bets in this- Yeah... I, I don't mind including Norman Powell at 10 to 1 or nine, uh, plus 950. It's- It's a little wild to me...
4:48
we're getting a bonus here of him being the least sexy name outside of Bobby Portis. Is that what it is? Yes. That's what it is. Look at... 'Cause look, look at... They're all- Yeah...
4:56
the odds are all jumbled up until you get to Norman Powell, and, like, the, the casual bettor goes, "I don't even know who Norman Pow- Norman Powell is." You know what? Thanks, Matt. Good call. You're right. It might...
5:04
No, like, my NBA brain is too locked into the NBA all the time. Right. Yeah, you're right. That's what it is. And, uh, he's... And so that actually is probably, that actually is probably value.
5:11
If we were trying to- Yeah... identify value. Because, like, he, e- even if you wanted to say he belongs below all the o- then it would be 750. Mm-hmm. It wouldn't be 10 to 1. Mm-hmm. What I'll be doing...
5:23
So just from... No, you're absolutely right. Uh, what I will be doing is betting Maxey, and then one of Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, or Do- or Norman Powell. I, I mean, look, if this- Mm-hmm...
5:34
especially if this number keeps drifting all weekend, right? I mean, this could- Yeah... this is double digits. I don't really know how I'm not looking at Norm. So there it is.
5:41
We, uh, we've done our draft, and there will be a winner. We will come in here, and we'll grade this puppy on Monday, and this will be for the expensive drink. That's right. Get that figured out.
5:50
So I have, uh, we all have rooting interest at this point. Let us know which team you like better. It's gonna be mine, but it's okay. Let, let me know which team that you like better.
5:58
Yeah, I like your team better already. [laughs] You ca- No, no, no, don't emotional hedge. Don't, don't emotional hedge. No, no, no, no, no, you know, it's okay. I went with my guys. Yeah.
6:08
Probably should have gone with Con over Jamal Murray, but yeah, whatever. You're emotional hedging. Don't do it. It's fine. Big stage for Con Kadiple. I don't know if he can handle it. Rookie, bright lights.
6:17
[laughs] All-Star game atmosphere. Okay. Let's head to these, um, these markets out here in the awards for the NBA.
6:26
Now, as of, from yesterday to today, because again, we have yet another game in which SGA doesn't play, and why not, Cade Cunningham- Ooh... falls to 14 to 1 now. Okay.
6:37
So the, the, a little bit more juice, a little bit more juice on, uh, Cade Cunningham here for MVP as people, I think, look around and go, "Well, SGA's not playing,"
6:49
and Jokic, we think he'll qualify, but there's at least a, there's at least a chance that if something else comes up that he might not qualify. Cade Cunningham's gonna qualify.
6:58
Well, he's the best player on the team- Mm-hmm... with the least amount of losses right now- Mm-hmm... in the NBA.
7:05
So yeah, like you were talking about earlier, as much as we talked about the, uh, the Thunder all season long, 42 and 14 is their record. The Detroit Pistons are 40 and 13. It's... So that's where we're at.
7:16
Best win percentage, uh, right now, he's the best player on that team. I get that. I think some of the just even baseball card numbers, right, advanced stats, I don't, I don't know if he's gonna get there.
7:27
I don't know that, ooh, would I put him above Luka? Because he's jumped Luka. Yes, I would. That's part- partially due to Luka Doncic's injury. And you see the number drifted on Jaylen Brown since yesterday. Yeah.
7:38
It was 30, it was 35 to 1. It's 40 to 1 today. Yeah. Yeah. That's a little interesting too. Mm-hmm.
7:44
Um, the one I will say about Luka, though, and I've said this, I, I've said this, man, it feels like for two or three months, Matt, it's not a bet for me, but it's because of my lack of belief in where the Lakers end up finishing in the standings.
7:55
I just don't know that you can go make a great case, uh, for Luka if he's on a six seed in the Western Conference or something like that.
8:03
But if you are a b- b- bigger believer in this Lakers team down the stretch than I am, I don't think 20 to 1 on Luka is a terrible bet.
8:11
I think at a certain point, we talked a little bit about this the other day, Jokic, i- I've got bets already on Jokic, man. I hope he gets there. I hope he's able to play this number of games.
8:20
I think it's too fine a line still.
8:22
Now, at a certain point, we're gonna h- we're gonna hit a point in the season, you know, a few weeks from now, where okay, if he's still got a couple games free, I, I'll probably be changing what I'm saying.
8:31
I don't know that you can go in and bet on, on that now. I think what's really curious here, Matt, is there a point
8:37
before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns that this number, uh, comes back far enough to the pack that that becomes the bet again all of a sudden? It, probably, but it's not there yet for me. It's not there yet.
8:51
But, but let's say he misses a week more of games. So not just, okay, obviously we're in a dead period now. Mm. You're missing that. You get the, out of All-Star week and he misses four or five games.
9:01
This number's, if this number hits -125 with him back on the court, are you going in on SGA? I would like it to be a little bit closer to even money. Okay.
9:09
Because now you start to, like you said, I mean, there is buffer, but you are starting to, to get into the danger zone there a little bit. You are.
9:17
You are, and it will depend, obviously, if Jokic had missed any games there- Mm-hmm... th- then, but I, I think this is still, I think we're gonna get excited about some of the other names.
9:26
I think this is a two-horse race with, with SGA and Jokic. Mm-hmm. And that's only if Jokic plays, the, i- i- is able to get over the, the hump.
9:33
So all, I'm just throwing out there, I, I, like, for me personally, all I ha- I do have a long, silly, stupid 100 to 1 Cade Cunningham ticket. I'm heavily loaded on Jokic from earlier in the season at five to one.
9:45
If I see that kind of drift with SGA, I will be in on him. And I just want to point, I don't think it's just- Yeah... from a hedging standpoint. I actually think it's a good bet if you're get...
9:53
If he hasn't hit the court yet again and it's down around even money, I think that becomes a pretty good bet. Coach of the Year is four deep under 10 to 1.
10:02
We get Charles Lee at 15 to 1, and then everybody else 20 or longer. Do you believe that JB Bickerstaff is your favorite? He, yeah, okay, yes. Okay. I believe he should be the favorite.
10:14
I made a bet on Jordan Ott last week. Okay. And it's right around this same number. And a lot of this is, I, I just don't think there should be that big a separation between where Bickerstaff is at and where Ott is at.
10:25
I, now look, the, the more that, like we just talked about, what happens in the standings, the more of that that occurs, and if Detroit continues to, you know, from here on out, has the best record in the NBA, yes, I think he's winning it.
10:37
It's probably not e- it becomes not even a discussion, right?
10:40
If the Thunder catch back up, okay, this Detroit team slips it all, just pre-season expectations, I don't really know what we're ta- what we're talking about here with Jordan Ott being this far back.
10:52
Pre-season win total on this Suns team was 30 and a half. 30 and a half games. Kevin Durant leaves town. All the major changes with this roster and what you expect. This was not a team...
11:02
Look, the win total was so low I had no interest in going under on them, Matt, right? Mm-hmm. Like, it was, it was that, it was a team that I really didn't think was gonna be a factor at all in the Western Conference.
11:11
They're a seven seed right now, could easily play their way out of that play-in s- position.
11:17
I think Jordan Ott should be getting a lot of love for a team that I didn't expect to be in, i- remotely sniffing a playoff opportunity at all this year. I'm a little shocked he's that much further back from Bickerstaff.
11:28
I, Missoula's great every year. Like, Mitch, I don't think Mitch Johnson, I don't think he really stands a chance. Mm-hmm. Wembanyama gets all the credit there, right? Yeah.
11:35
Wembanyama and this, and then what you've done with this roster gets all the credit. Charles Lee probably should be more in the conversation. I know I've got a lot of tweets about this.
11:43
He probably should be more in the conversation, but they just started too far back. Too many losses too early. I think where they end up in the standings is gonna hurt him, and I don't think he's really in the race.
11:53
I think Missoula probably is, Matt, but- In the last 40 seconds, let me give you one scenario. I don't think it's gonna happen, but what if the Spurs overtake the Thunder in the West? Yeah.
12:04
The standings always do matter with this.
12:05
So yes, it was, he's, he's, he's at least live back in the conversation if that occurs 'Cause I, I mean, again, don't think it's gonna happen, they are only three games back I still think, though, okay, if we're talking about situation end of season, it's Spurs with the one seed and Detroit with the one seed, I think Bickerstaff still wins the award.
12:20
Okay. Yeah. But just wanted to throw that out there. I mean, that, I, I mean, that, that's where the Wembanyama MVP- Wembanyama MVP conversation- Hmm... I think comes back into play.
12:30
Right Not just Defensive Player of the Year, MVP. Let's get into some baseball betting conversation. Just how do you go about it? What's the strategy, and how has it changed over the years?
12:46
You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:52
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13:00
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13:09
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:28
It is a numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. As we get ready for some golf talk here, we are heading into round number two.
13:36
Remember, this is a no-cut event, so we're not sweating a cut here on Friday like we normally would at a lot of these other tournaments.
13:43
The weather report, the beautiful weather report that the PGA Tour puts out just came out, Kelly Tilghman. Yes. I mean, look at, I mean, this, that is, that is a, that is a damn fine graphic.
13:51
Is this your first year noticing this? No, no. But it's just- Oh, okay... that they do it, write it, you know, like, it's just- No, you're right. The timing's well done... it's right on time. Yes. It's right, whatever.
13:58
It's, it's always so incredibly beautiful. Anyway, no chance of rain at all today. It is going to be pretty cloudy skies out there. And as, like we saw yesterday, the wind, by the way, was r- it wa- they were right.
14:10
It did start to pick up a little bit in the afternoon. It did. Kinda they're saying the same thing again here today.
14:15
So we're gonna be in that, like, 5 to 10 mile an hour range for the first half of the day, and then, Kelly, we get into the gusts.
14:21
While, while the sustained winds aren't going to get into the danger zone, the highest range they have on here is about 14 miles an hour, which is nothing we're really all that worried about.
14:30
We do kind of get back up into that, like, 20 to 22 mile an hour gusts stuff again in the afternoon.
14:37
So some of the people on the PM tee times could at least see some of their stuff getting messed with a little bit, whereas we did not see that at all in the morning.
14:46
But we did start to see that a little bit l- as the, uh, as the day wore on yesterday. Yeah, it was, uh, Scott Scheffler's post-round interview, and it's...
14:54
And there, there's some guy that y- you, you get a lot of boring interviews on golf, right? A- a- and you're trying to learn some things from the... Y- I love the post-round interviews. You try to learn- Mm-hmm...
15:02
right, if, whatever, fr- fr- from whoever they're talking to about the course, about the conditions.
15:07
I thought it was interesting 'cause Scotty, I know he had a tough round yesterday, but the guy still rarely complains about anything outside of his game.
15:15
And he wasn't complaining, but he brought up, and I thought it was significant that he brought up, he- the wind definitely mo- changing and feeling it more later in his round and in the afternoon.
15:25
Yeah, I mean, I'm, uh, you know, one of the things that we do when we finish up, too, is just, well, at least what I, the very first thing I do is just look for outliers and see if there's anything that I can do and go and tackle.
15:37
Yeah. Now, if you listen to Long Shots, if you listen to us here, you know I have a bet on Ryo Hisatsune. That being said, he gained 5.12 strokes putting yesterday. It's gotta be w- his best round ever.
15:50
I- it's just, you know, the same could be said for Sam Burns, who gained 5.16 strokes. But at least a, but at least a well-known good putter. Yeah. Putting yesterday, it's just, those w- Oh my God, it, yeah...
16:02
tho- those rounds are just not going to be repeated very often, you know? And so you almost, you al- y- you, you look at this, and I'll let you read the, the, the tweet that we got from, from Justin Ray yesterday.
16:16
But, like, the, the stuff that I go in and I... The very first thing I do is look for putting. Mm-hmm. And then the second thing that I look for is the off the tee stuff.
16:25
'Cause if a guy is typically okay off the tee and just had a bad round, was just spraying it for whatever, you get the yips sometimes- Right...
16:34
and whatever, you know, then I will give him the benefit of the doubt with, with that and, like, kinda look to back him as a, i- whatever.
16:40
But, like, the putting stuff I look to fade more times than not because that is just so incredibly variant. Mm-hmm.
16:49
And even more variant on these Poe greens that, like, the difference between making and missing a putt, I mean, Hideki made a 42-foot putt yesterday that I watched, like, go from inside and outside the cup because- Right.
17:03
[laughs]... then it hit, like, two different bumps along the way. And, like, if you don't hit the right side of the bump, then he's gonna miss it for sure.
17:08
But it happened to hit the right side of the bump, and it went in. W- so it's just, the, it's, especially on these greens, there's so much variability to that, that, like, y- you, you can't repeat that.
17:17
Yeah, it really is. I mean, look, it's something we talk about. Yeah, for anybody who listens to Long Shots, we talk about it a lot.
17:23
I, uh, just entering the season and before tournaments, and it's why, yeah, you know, I think for me and Matt, we both dial d- at most courses, I'm not gonna say this is everywhere, but a lot of courses, putting is dialed down a lot just because of, because of the very nature of it, uh, a- and just the w- wildly different outcomes that you can see.
17:40
A- and again, some guy, yeah, some guys are naturally better putters than others. Uh, Sam Burns being up there.
17:46
A- now, the numbers he put up, yes, are gonna be tough, tough for a p- it's over five strokes gained with the putter. You guys don't- Yeah, you just don't, yeah... it's kinda tough for anybody, right? Yes.
17:53
But at least he's a well-known good putter. Now, the next guy's on the list, Ryo Hisatsune, it's well b- been well documented that is still with the club.
18:00
He's struggling with a bit despite the great start to the season here. Tony Finau. Tony Finau- Right... is next on the list. He gained 4.87 strokes with the putter, uh, in round one.
18:10
That is something that I would not expect, uh, at all to see again here the rest of the weekend. So yeah, they, uh, very similar to, to what you're saying.
18:18
That's usually if I'm doing any in, uh, in-tournament betting Uh, especially with match-ups, right? Looking to attack that very next round, uh, is usually the...
18:26
That's what I'm looking to, uh, to go against guys like that. And I will just add, Justin Ray had tweeted yesterday, there were well over 300,000 rounded- rounds measured by ShotLink since 2004.
18:37
Rio Hasana today is the only player in that group to lose strokes to the field off the tee on approach and still shoot 62 or lower. Yeah. That is really hard to do. Which, which lets you know you putted the lights out.
18:51
Mm-hmm. And it's just if you do what you did again, it's going to be unsustainable. Yep. Right? Like, you're just not going to make...
18:58
I think at one point he, you know, I think I heard him say on the broadcast, he had made 149 feet of putts or something like that. You know, just something insane. And so- Kid's having a hell of a season, though.
19:08
Hey, yeah, I'll give him that. Yeah. This is someone that was on our radar last year as nowadays- Look, buddy, fall back, but don't fall back outside the top 20. [laughs] That's all I'm saying.
19:15
Fall back, but don't fall back outside the top 20. Uh, that would cost us here. You can see the odds if you're watching at home. Yeah. The live odds 12 to 1 on Rio. Uh, you got a little under 10 to 1 on Sam Burns.
19:25
Keegan sitting there at plus eight. 20- 29 to 1 on Finau. And, you know, again, you're gonna go, "Wait, wait, wait. He's only one shot off the lead. How can he between 29 to 1?" One, he- he's been in terrible form. Yeah.
19:34
Two, he has one of the worst profiles of anybody because he lost 1.21 off the tee, which by the way, that's almost the only thing he does good these days. Right. And putted at a 4.87 plus. That's just...
19:48
That is a very bad recipe for Tony Finau. Nah, and Nick Taylor, also ridiculous putting numbers. Yeah. The one I- I can- I will never talk negatively about Nick Taylor again, though, Matt.
19:57
This is like, you go back the past two years on tour, if you bet outrights on every single human being, you would've lost money.
20:02
At every tournament they teed up, you would've lost money on everybody except for two golfers, Scottie Scheffler and Nick Taylor. A lot of that has- Right...
20:09
to do with the odds because Nick Taylor wins at, like, 110 to 1. Uh, i- it's why, wh- well, so I won't go crazy about him. Is this, is this somebody, like, trying to let us know that, that they're really on Akshay Patia?
20:19
Akshay Patia, period. All right? [laughs] Like, like, that's who's winning this, the Akshay Patia, period. All right? End this conversation. End the conversation.
20:26
I am go- I've got 11 at Tom Ho- Tom Hoge, former winner here. Uh, you know, this is speaking... W- Matt just brought up with Foreman, like, where Tony Finau's at in his game.
20:35
Tom Hoge, former winner at this tournament, uh, three shots off the lead, and 72 to 1 you can still get him at. Yeah, so I- Attention, Will Hill, 'cause I know he loves Tom H- Tom Hoge.
20:45
Yeah, so some of the outliers just, uh, again, you have time to get in if you want to do any of this stuff. We mentioned Burns, we mentioned Hasatsana, we mentioned Finau, you mentioned Taylor.
20:54
Denny McCarthy is the only guy- Great putter... that I'm not going... Listen, I would say- Yeah...
20:59
he's the only guy that I'm not going to s- He gained three strokes putting, but, like, he- it's the only reason he's on tour. Mm-hmm. Like, he doesn't do anything else for well. So it's like,
21:09
I- I'm, I'm not gonna do that, but- Knapp and Fitz could continue...
21:13
if you get to Jordan Spieth, Jake Knapp, Sammy Valimaki, Alex Noren, these are all guys that gained over two strokes putting, um, yesterday on the round.
21:25
So again, if you, i- if, if you want to, perhaps if you find anything attractive about trying to, uh, to fade those guys. Some of the dudes on approach that just went nuts, but you can't really fade Godderup at all.
21:39
Shane Lowry's always a good approach player, as is Hoge. Morikawa, these are all dudes that are f- that are just, like, finally getting maybe back into form a little bit when it comes to, like- Yeah...
21:50
I mean, Mo- Morikawa was off for a while there. Lowry, you know, was, had, had been off. But maybe these dudes are getting back to what we know and love about them.
21:57
I didn't find anything in the approach numbers that really threw me for a loop, at least guys from on the positive side. On the negative side, I mean, I think- Well, that's what I look at more than approach...
22:08
I think Ludwig might be, I think Ludwig might be broken. Yeah, he is. You can't, you can't, you can't. You gotta stay away from him right now.
22:14
The only one that really kind of came out to me, and maybe I was looking through my betting eyes at this, but, like, Ryan Gerard is good on approach, and he was bad yesterday. Ben Griffin is good on approach.
22:23
He was bad yesterday. I'll excuse the Gerard one just 'cause he's still, he's still a bit of a, a n- newer, younger guy coming up, right? He's still had good finishes already this year, multiple T2s.
22:35
You're allowed to have a bad week, Ryan. And, you know, again, Ben Griffin, another guy that, like, typically pretty good on, on approach. And, like, honestly, if you look at Ben Griffin's round,
22:48
could've been something special because he's actually, w- you know, when we run the models, he's one of the best par five guys- Yeah... that there, that was on tour all of last year. He bogeyed 14 and then doubled 18.
23:01
That is three over on two of the par fives, and he still was two under for the, for the day. Wait, what is this? Yeah, yeah. Uh, sorry, I'm distracted here. Scottie Scheffler with the eighth worst- Yeah... in the field.
23:14
I think that's eighth worst on approach in the field yesterday. Holy hell. Yeah. That is not something you see. Now, that is an outlier. Yeah.
23:21
There's no doubt about that, but I mean, I think- Do, do you make anything of that, though? I caught a couple people, like, okay, this... We saw the amazing, the amazing surge back last week.
23:28
Do you think there's equipment change issues or anything like that going on with him beginning of the year, that he's just needing some time to figure this out?
23:37
I mean, this is two weeks in a row of just awful first rounds. So I do know- And I don't know what to read into that. I don't. Yeah, I do know, um,
23:45
I do know that the, he had moved back to the driver that he, that he was playing last year. Yeah, yep. I don't know about the irons, though. You know?
23:53
But then I, and then I heard him post-round yesterday talking about how someone asked him what, you know, what he was hitting on certain holes, right? And he was talking about hitting three wood.
24:00
And sa- saying in the past he would usually bust out driver here, and kind of skirted the question like, "Yeah, I'm not using it as much now." When we get back, let's talk a little college baseball. Matt Griswold.
24:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:28
Numbers game here on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin want to get in again. They're gonna tee off here in about 15 minutes. I did say that I had three head-to-heads that I played.
24:37
Kelly Bidlin, your quick thoughts. Three. I played Pierson Coody over Hirsatsune. I played Si Woo over J.J. Spaun, and I played Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry.
24:48
Like I said, the, the Ben Griffin thing really stood out, so he was three over on those two par fives. If, if he, if he even just pars those par fives- Mm-hmm... which by the way, he played under par.
24:58
I mean, they were, they were like the easiest holes on the course. He's... We're, we're talking about a five under round for Ben Griffin. If he birdies them, which again, a lot of the people did, you know? Yeah.
25:08
Now we're talking more like a six or seven under round for Ben Griffin, as opposed to where he bogeys and then doubles one of the other ones. And so I think that that comes back around. So Coody over Hirsatsune,
25:19
uh, he just can't putt like he... He, I mean, he, he just can't putt like he did yesterday. Yeah, you wouldn't think so. He's been good. He's been good, but I hear you. Those putting numbers are, are just huge.
25:29
And yeah, I'm on Pierson Coody this week anyways, so yeah, it's hard for me to disagree with that one. And Si Woo over J.J. Spaun. I think J.J.'s broken too. Uh, where, where'd you get that one at? I think that's one...
25:38
That one I'm telling you on. Sayrs. Okay. Yeah. I got one I'm telling on. Yeah. That, that is Sayrs, and then Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry.
25:44
So- I mean, speak- speaking of guys, Ri- Rio's had couple great tournaments here. Si Woo Kim- Mm-hmm... has just, this is round after round, week after week.
25:53
You know, Sun- Sundays have been painful, but, you know, the Si Woo, Si Woo putting experience is an experience. Yeah. So just those are all three head-to-heads that I'm on, uh, here on a Friday.
26:03
But remember, as we said, like, there is no cut here in this. And so, you know, Kelly, I don't know what you think about this, but we- Scottie Scheffler's definitely not out, I mean. [laughs] I mean, well, so here's...
26:15
The, the pin placements before we, right before we get to Matt, just so that we, y'all can remember. The pin placements to- yesterday and today- Same, right... are gonna be much easier
26:24
than on the weekend when the amateurs are gone. Right. So it, these dudes that are at the top of the leaderboard, when things get a little bit more difficult, might find con- things to be a little bit- Mm-hmm...
26:33
more difficult. So just, I don't think this is over by any stretch with any of these dudes that are in the top. I think if anybody, for me, I'd feel comfortable.
26:41
If you're, if you're a couple under par right now, I'd feel okay with that, especially if the winds pick up over the weekend. Oh, I agree. Yeah, yeah. I've got, I've got some guys that are, like, three under.
26:50
I don't- Yeah... you know, I don't think they're out of it at all anyways. We, I know we didn't, I don't think we hit the outright odds. Ke- any surprises by my boy Keegan? Feel like this is long shots again.
26:57
You're like, "How about the one on Berger?" Mm. Keegan's plus 820 and your favorite? I, I don't know that I'd have him as your favorite. I'm the biggest Keegan Bradley guy in the planet.
27:05
[laughs] Uh, Godrobs plus 30 is my man, Sam Burns plus 980, and then Rio 12 to 1 fits, then, then down to, like, 17 to 1 everybody else all under that.
27:14
Let's get to, uh, Matt Grissom here, collegebaseballinsiders.com, @grissomonx. Matt, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing well. How are y'all? We are- Great... doing really, really good.
27:25
I need to, uh, first and foremost, I got a bone to pick with you because I do have your, uh, plays and picks and thoughts here for the, uh, season in this rundown, and I, I do not see my LSU Tigers anywhere on this list.
27:37
And, uh, I need to know what's, what's going on with that. Well, not since 2018 has the defending national champ gone back to Omaha, so I don't think that streak is broken with the Tigers.
27:51
Although, they're gonna be a force to reckon with. But, um, as I'm, I'm joined here by another college baseball guy that's- You've gotta be kidding... familiar with VSiN Network. Mr., Mr. Ben Wilson- Wow...
28:04
as, as he gets ready to call the game on FloBaseball, 29.99 you can purchase that- [laughs]... watch great baseball for the next three weeks. He said he was gonna do that.
28:14
I didn't, I didn't know if he was being truthful or not, but there you go. You get a live appearance by the Ben Wilson. Wow. Wait, what, what- But yeah, LSU- He means Ben_Wilson_1_ Over, or, or follow him on Twitter.
28:26
Or follow him on Twitter. Yeah, yeah, whatever, yeah. Yeah, yeah. See his family in the Country Club in Oklahoma, yeah. Yeah, absolutely. As Gil Alexander would put, the one guy at VSiN that's destined for great things.
28:35
It, well, that, that's why we gotta bring him back. We gotta bring him back down to earth when me and Matt are just, uh, doing- Yeah... doing the show. That's for sure.
28:40
It's pretty easy to be destined for great things whenever you started with, uh, you know, a bank account of $25 million. [laughs] So I mean, you know. Oh, man. Matt, Matt, what, what games are you watching today?
28:50
Who are you kind of most interested in seeing in action this afternoon? This, uh, the, the best game in my opinion today is gonna be Vanderbilt TCU. That's at 3:00 Central Time here at Globe Life.
29:02
We start the day with Oklahoma and Texas Tech. That's gonna be a anything but a pitcher's duel. Uh, Cameron Johnson's decent for Oklahoma, but Texas Tech hasn't had a good pitching staff in years.
29:15
And unfortunately for Tim Tadlock, I, I think Tech is gonna be in for another long season. I expect a lot of runs in this one. But the 3:00 game, complete opposite.
29:26
You've got a, a great matchup on the mound with Connor Fennell and, uh, Tommy Lepore for TCU. They're two completely different style pitchers.
29:35
Connor Fennell's not gonna zip 100 mile per hour fastball by you, but he's got a lot of, a lot of breaking ball stuff. He's really relying on his changeup, slider mix.
29:45
But, uh, 88 mile per hour fastball, again, not gonna jump off the page at you, but I think this is gonna be a lower scoring game.
29:52
TCU getting plus money right now, I, I find that pretty odd considering TCU is, is everybody's kind of dol- uh, darling to, to make the College World Series.
30:05
So I'll ride with the dog here with TCU and, and hope that Tommy Lepore can get five or six innings in deep and keep this Vanderbilt offense at bay, which they've been for the better part of the last half decade for Tim Corbin.
30:19
They've really struggled to, to put up runs. Matt, you got a couple favorites on the card as well. Kansas State over Iowa and Arizona over Stanford Yeah, Iowa's got the better pitcher starting, but, and Tyler Garren.
30:36
And, uh, this Kansas State offense I feel like is just in a better place. Iowa used to be a gauntlet for a really good pitching staff. We'll see what that bodes for them this year. Uh, but I think D.
30:47
Kennedy coming back really anchoring that offense. Kansas State should be able to outscore Iowa. They're another offense that's not gonna jump off the page and put up a lot of runs.
30:56
So give me Kansas State at the short price. And then Arizona minus 160. They're tied with TCU as the short shot to win the Big 12. Got a really good punch with, with, uh, Smith Bailey and Owen Kremkowski.
31:12
Trying to remember all these names is, uh, is tough. New season, man. It's okay. Yeah But I think baseball has some of the hardest names ever to, to pronounce as well. But Owen Kremkowski going for Arizona today.
31:23
They did lose their stopper of the year in Tony Pluta, the closer, but I still think this Wildcats team is, is live to, to win anything. And in college baseball you have to lay a lot of juice.
31:34
It's typically a very favorite ridden handicap, so minus 160 I feel like is fair when you look across the landscape of all the, the day one bets you could make. A lot of these favorites are minus 200 plus.
31:47
So you gotta find your spots where you can get them. Matt, I know you got a bunch of futures loaded up.
31:53
Just real quick for anybody out there, the Diamond Report, the preview guide that Matt and his team have put together for this season is awesome. Was scrolling through that the other day.
32:02
Uh, thediamondreport.com where you can go get it. Uh, Matt, I know, let's start with the futures. SEC at the top, no shocker to see there.
32:10
Arkansas, Texas, what do you like about these teams, and, uh, how far do you think these guys can go? Yeah, Jeff Davis not giving the Razorbacks much credit. They're about 11, uh, 11 to one everywhere else.
32:22
You see the odds on the screen there. Circa Sports has them plus 1650. I feel like that's a steal considering Dave Van Horn is consistently rumored to be in that Omaha mix every year.
32:34
He's not finished worse than 18 and 12 in the SEC over the last five years. And we saw him last year in Omaha.
32:43
You know, a, a ball to left field kept them from beating LSU forcing an elimination game, and LSU ended up going on to win the College World Series against Coastal, as we know. Congratulations, Matt.
32:55
[laughs] But I think this year i- it's the same story for, for Arkansas. It's pitching staff, pitching staff, pitching staff. And the offense is made up of a lot of portal guys mixed with guys that returned.
33:07
So I think, I think Arkansas is just as alive as anybody. Plus they get a very favorable SEC schedule. They dodge Tennessee, LSU, and I believe Texas. So
33:20
y- you're looking at a spot where they're gonna be in the national seat if they just do the bare minimum that he's done year in and year out in the SEC.
33:28
And then Texas with Luke Harrison and Dylan Velantis, they've got a true one-two punch there. River Rojas another arm out of that starting rotation that's gonna be good. They dove into the transfer portal.
33:41
They got Carson Tinney, the really good catcher out of Notre Dame. And I, I think this Texas team at 17 to one is, is a steal. They were... They won the SEC outright last year.
33:53
I think Jim Schlossnagle has proven time and time again that he's gonna have his guys ready for an Omaha run.
34:00
And, you know, we saw him at Texas A&M a couple years ago take Tennessee to the wire before the Vols ended up winning. And then I've got some longer shots. Oregon State, Florida, TCU.
34:10
I also like them to make the College World Series. That's, uh, a little less of a payout, but you, you know, you, you're talking about the top eight at that point.
34:18
Oregon State has a really good sophomore returning in Dax Whitney. Ethan Kleinschmidt also with, with another great, great pitching staff there. And then Florida, that, that line on Florida is just wild.
34:31
If Kevin O'Sullivan can get to a Super Regional, he is nine and one in Super Regionals, so basically just go ahead and Sharpie them in Super Regional to Omaha.
34:42
And then Florida TCU, or I'm sorry, Oregon State, TCU both just they're gonna be really good this year. It's just a matter of winning and getting hot at the right time and make that final push to Omaha.
34:54
But I think they can both do it. He's Matt Grissom, collegebaseballinsiders.com, @grissomonx.
35:00
You and I are gonna have a little Arkansas LSU bet on the side here, and make Ben Wilson pull that black card out whenever you're up there, buddy. Have him pay for everything. [laughs] Appreciate the time and good luck.
35:10
Thanks, guys.
35:11
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:33
Numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ricky Fowler, three birdies in three holes. Let's go, Rick. To nine under. Where, where's Isaiah at? Is he having a party downstairs, you think?
35:47
Does he have a, r- Ricky Fowler watch party downstairs in the VSiN offices of Circa. Does he have a, do you have a Ricky ticket? Probably, but he's like the biggest Ricky Fowler fan on the planet.
35:57
'Cause, you know, he's still from like that age range. Low-key I made a Ricky ticket. Outright? Yeah. Good for you. I got top 20 on him. That's it. But it was just a... That was more of a FOMO thing.
36:09
Well, that's my, that's my Maverick McNealy outright. Akshay Bhatia two under. Tony Finau one under. They all trail Ryu Hosotsune, who is sitting at 10 under. He's yet to tee off.
36:22
I can't wait for the reaction on Long Shots next week if, uh, Tony Finau wins this event. 'Cause guess what, Matt? I don't know that I'm gonna... I don't know what I'm gonna say.
36:32
I don't really have a feeling I'm gonna have much to say about [laughs]... It's gonna be the most random blip- Yeah... like, on the internet. Like, are we really supposed to read into that?
36:40
Yeah, we'll- And if not, if he's putting like this still... also we'll, like I said, easy pins first two days. Let- let's see what these dudes look like on Saturday and Sunday. Yep.
36:51
I don't- Also, this is like the most gorgeous playing, perfect playing conditions I've ever seen at Pebble, it feels like. We should get on a plane and go when we leave out of here.
37:01
Think Ben can pick us up on his way back from Texas? Ben, Ben, Ben can swoop in on his PJ and pick us up and we'll go up there- [laughs]... real quick. Um, okay, so let's get to some of our plays. We can start with mine.
37:13
I have Pierson Coody over Ryu Satone, Si Woo Kim over J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry. So those are the three plays that, uh, we have in there for the golf today. Those are head-to-heads and for round two only.
37:27
And then we talked about this earlier in the week, Orioles and Pirates over on their win total, Yankees and Dodgers under on theirs.
37:34
And I will throw in a bonus bet that you get just for listening and watching here that's not on the screen. And guess what that's gonna be? Damian Lillard to win the three-point competition. I'm gonna bet it.
37:43
I'm betting it. He's gonna win it. All right. I like it. I like it. I- It's happening... I wrote two down in the sheet.
37:49
I don't really know that I'm gonna be able to sit through the three-point contest though and not have a Dame Lillard bet o- uh, bet going. I'm with you. It feels, it feels bad.
37:57
Uh, I went Tyrese Maxey and Donovan Mitchell. That's where I'm gonna go right now if, uh, to win the three-point contest. Ran through these a little bit earlier.
38:04
Maxey with the most makes in attempts per game from that wide open range, uh, which, you know, it's... You- you're looking at what people have shot for three points all this, uh, this year.
38:14
I do like to do the wide open looks, just, okay, how do, what do, what does it look like in a game where there's a little bit more pressure?
38:20
But also, that wide open look like they are gonna get in the contest, where there's a little bit of pressure as well. So Maxey, and then I'm just gonna go Donovan Mitchell. You took him in the draft.
38:29
I waffled back and forth between him and, uh, uh, Jamal Murray. I'm gonna go Donovan Mitchell though, sub-plus 750 on them. Those, both those guys feeling a little bit high.
38:37
And again, I think the, the one I'm gonna kinda save, so obviously this is not, it's not like I'm gonna make a ton if any of these guys hit.
38:43
I think I will add one more, Matt, and it's either gonna be, it's either gonna be Dame, 'cause I just, just FOMO-ing, I don't wanna miss out on Dame winning this.
38:51
Or, like we talked about, if I see Norm Powell drift at a, a ridiculous number, I'll add him as well. Phil Bobbit, Daytona 500. Bets from Phil on the show.
39:00
Outrights, he's got Kyle Larson 18 to 1, Ty Gibbs 40 to 1, Cole Custer 80 to 1, which that's just a rock solid NASCAR name, Jimmie Johnson 80 to 1, and Riley Herbst 125 to 1. We, uh... Oh, I'm also on Kyle Larson.
39:15
But who, no one cares about my opinion on that. That's just a complete tale. You know? It's not that nobody cares. Nobody should care about your opinion on that. Yes.
39:21
The only thing they should care about is that I have a better number. [laughs] Because I used a bonus thing. At 20- That's, that's right. They should care about that... at 20, I have 22 and a half to one.
39:28
There was a betting lesson from that, I have to say. Yes. I have 22 and a half to one on it. The betting lesson was not about NASCAR from- No... from Matt Brown, though, but- Taking advantage of opportunities...
39:36
exactly, yes. Yes. Match-ups for Phil, he's got Gibbs over, oh boy, Zilisch? Connor Zilisch. That's what we're gonna say. Yeah.
39:43
And Kyle Larson over Austin Cindric, Michael McDowell over Ricky Stenhouse, minus 114, three match-ups for Phil Bobbit. And what we had Matt Grissom bets for today, uh, Kansas State moneyline versus Iowa.
39:57
Make sure to check these out. One Ben Wilson on the call is the rumor, or at least crashing live shots out there. On one of them, yeah.
40:04
Yeah, TCU moneyline +120 against Vanderbilt, and Arizona moneyline -160 versus Stanford. Believe we got some season longs from Grissom as well.
40:14
To win the College Baseball World Series, Arkansas +1650, Texas 17 to 1, Oregon State 30 to 1, Florida 40 to 1. Florida, the Florida Gators, not Florida State. TCU 50 to 1.
40:27
And then to make College Baseball World Series, Oregon State four to one, Florida +450, TCU five to one. No LSU on there. Well, those are the- He's, it's the, it's the, it's the hate. He's from Arkansas.
40:39
He went to Arkansas, it's fine. Yeah. He's got a bias against us. Yeah. It's okay. Little Arkansas. They are, in fact- I will say-... the very short shot though. Yeah, they are the short shot.
40:47
I am, uh, I w- I was, yeah, I was giving him a little crap, too, about Florida State not making his list, but Matt Grissom has, uh, he's been a b- big Florida State supporter in the past, so I'm gonna let it slide.
40:57
LSU has- What's the deal with Oregon State in baseball, by the way?... such an incr- incredibly loaded team. I mean, like they are- LSU, yeah... all, like so loaded. I mean, that, like that's not shocking.
41:07
What I always wonder about, especially these days, like how does Oregon State just keep reloading? Like this has been a thing now for like 20 years, like Oregon State baseball. You're, you're doing your thing.
41:16
You're acting like the, it's like the, it's the Pacific Northwest. Are there a lot of great baseball going on out there?
41:21
Well, at least it's, I mean, the, it's, it, it's not like it doesn't snow there, so you can, you can play there too.
41:25
Well, I know that, but like, uh, are we ever, are we ever talking about Oregon or Washington or Washington State football or a- uh, baseball or anything? Or Oregon. Oregon? Like Oregon, but I mean Oregon Phil Knight.
41:36
They got all that Nike money. Yeah, Phil Knight. Yeah. Phil Knight, they got Phil Knight- They shouldn't be bad at anything... they got Phil Knight, they got Phil Knight money.
41:43
So it's one of those, it's one of those where you look and you go, "They should be good every single year."
41:49
Well, if you wanna specifically just hear Ben Wilson, he will be on the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game that starts in 15 minutes, and TCU-Vanderbilt. What do they say? Flow some- flow something? I don't know.
42:02
Uh, really w- Flow base- flow, flow baseball. I hate that you asked the question. Something. I don't know. Yes. Flow baseball. Why do we not- And I believe it's Texas...
42:10
especially in this, especially in right now when there's nothing else going, how is this not on television? Like, why don't you just have normal television? It probably is. Why don't you get a new streaming service?
42:16
I, I'm assuming it's on ESPN National if Ben Wilson's on the call. It just- Why wouldn't it be?... it said Flow Baseball, is what he said.
42:22
I like that, I like that Ben's takes, uh, end with always really good match-ups here. [laughs] Whoa. Is this a real one? Is this real from Shaw- It is. What do we got? Chris Paul announces his retirement. Oh, man.
42:33
All right. He's gonna go out like that. Yeah, but that, like that feels sad 'cause he wants to play, and like nobody wanted him. Like he was just getting sick of being used as a little trade chip here. Wow.
42:46
So he's done 21 seasons Chris Paul, hell of a career, man. Hell of a career In- insta Hall of Famer. Yes, insta Hall of Famer. And, um, you know what? One of those guys...
42:59
We like to talk about the eras all the time, and we were talking MJ and LeBron a little bit earlier, but you kind- you had that in between era, too, right, where that some- there, there were some guys that, that mattered a lot.
43:10
Well, Chris Paul, I guess, basically, in LeBron's era the whole time. But you know what I'm saying. That mid, that mid 2000s era where some of those guys were making an impact. You'll matter for al- you'll always matter.
43:20
Man, you look down- The Melos, the Chris Pauls, those type of guys... it's like you look, you look down and like- The JR Smiths...
43:26
if you, if you go to base- if you go to Basketball Reference, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 all-star seasons for him. You get multiple different MVP,
43:42
uh, votes for him- Just a-... along the way... yeah, I had to double check one stat that's gonna blow your mind. This guy averaged... And again, like, you know, at one point was called the Point God. Mm-hmm. You know?
43:54
Multiple seasons of double digit assists average over the course of a season, before assists were cool. Yep. Assists are cool now, you know- Yep... but, like, before assists were cool.
44:03
I, I think if you're of a certain age, you remember the golden age of Chris Paul. I think there's, uh... I think some people are gonna, like, just go, "Oh, that old dude retired?"
44:12
And it's kinda like, no, man, Chris Paul retired, okay? Chris Paul was awesome. Can we go... You wanna do a little trivia here? Yeah, let's do it. Top 10 assist leaders of all time. Name as many as you can.
44:23
John Stockton. Okay, number one. Magic Johnson. Who's number two? Chris Paul. Chris Paul is number two. That, that, I believe that occurred this year. I think it was this. No, no, no, no, never mind.
44:34
He's 500 ahead of Jason Kidd. Um, Jason Kidd three. Oh, I just tipped you one. But Chri- the Chris Paul, John Stockton finishes their career. Chris Paul played for how many years now? 20? 21. 21.
44:45
He is still over 3,000 assists behind John Stockton. [laughs] Like, it's just the... That Stockton assist number is just a... There are certain NBA records that are really gonna truly never be broken.
44:58
That one's gonna be a very tough one to break. All right, who else you got? But, like, the other thing here is, like, I mean, we're talking about... Remember too, like, we, we talked about his assists so much, Kelly.
45:07
He has multiple seasons of averaging nearly three steals a game too. Oh, yeah, yeah. He's up there on the steals list, yeah. I mean, it's just- He's, he's... Guess what?
45:18
He's number two behind John Stockton- Yeah, I was gonna say... on the steals list. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's just so, so much. You, you know, steal- steals and assists goes one, two, three. Stockton, Paul, Kidd. Wow.
45:29
He averaged... I mean, in his heyday, we are talking 20 points a game, double dig- double digit assists, nearly, you know, two and a half or more steals a game.
45:41
[upbeat music] And then he'll give, give you a handful of rebounds to go along with it. Good on Chris Paul. Yep. And I'm glad he's, I'm glad he's decided he's not gonna go be sad somewhere else, you know? Mm-hmm.
45:54
For all of that. For Kelly, I am Matt. Dunk Going In here. Money moves, prop points, make it rain, all still coming up here. And, uh, good luck on all your bets this weekend. [upbeat music]
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