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Feb 14, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 14, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 14, 2025
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right.
0:11
Welcome into a Numbers Game on this Friday morning, February 14th. He's Kelly Bedell and I'm Joe Seralla, taking you into your weekend. And Kelly, it's February 14th. You know what that means, my man. What's that?
0:22
Happy Valentine's Day, brother. Oh, I thought it was because the NBA went on break today. No? Oh, okay. No, it's- Yeah, yeah, Happy Valentine's Day. Yeah. Yeah.
0:28
There's no sports, so we are stuck trying to, you know, find- Hey, a little-... someone to go on a date with... little pink and red. There we go. I, I like it. I like it Feeling festive.
0:35
And shout out to our guy, Darnell, huh? How about that? Give you some chocolate. Walked in here, thought he was going for a fist bump, and then I'm like, "The hell's in his hand?"
0:42
He's got chocolate for us on Valentine's Day. What a guy. Maybe he secretly meant to smash the chocolates into your hand so you would just struggle all show with it. Right? So I'd look like Jimmy Butler last night?
0:52
[laughs] Yeah, sure. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. That's right. That's right. Just, just give a, a little slap ass with the chocolate- [laughs]...
0:56
in his hand and then you look like Jimmy Butler, who, by the way, there's no question he crapped himself- Mm... during that game. Did you see that? [laughs] Yeah, I did. I did. There was...
1:03
That, that's indisputable, what happened to Jimmy Butler last night on the court. Ugh. There is no doubt about that. That was like Paul Pierce some years back. Hey, as long as you keep winning, who cares, right?
1:14
That's true. How about the line movement in that game? Hoo. Let's start there. I mean, because when we were on air, it was Houston laying six and a half. It opened Golden State what... Uh, or was it Houston by a point?
1:24
Houston one, yeah. And then it closed Golden State one and a half? Uh, yeah, I guess that's what I caught this morning, 'cause I was writing something up for us of Dogs Sweep the Board, and then I was like, "Wait, what?"
1:33
Now I'm looking over at a couple sites, I'm like, wow, it went all the way to Golden State, uh, one before, uh, before we tipped off. And yeah, that's what we have. Yeah, one and a half.
1:40
Yeah, here over at VSiN.com, one and a half all the way to Golden State one and a half. So yeah, that was a, uh, [laughs] a bad read by some of the betters and bookmakers.
1:48
I mean, I brought it up yesterday on the show and I thought I was completely in lockstep with them. I was like, "I think Steph probably sits. I think Jimmy Butler s- uh, sits." And- Right...
1:56
I, uh, tip of the cap to the Rockets and Warriors, they know where they're at, uh, in the Western Conference and, uh, need to pick up every one of these wins that they can, um, for, for, uh, to improve themselves in the standing, and especially going up against each other.
2:09
Never know how that's gonna work out when the playoff seating comes down.
2:11
I'll tell you what, yesterday was such a weird day in the NBA because we talked about it on the show and, you know, we had Zach Cohen on and we doubled down on it when Zach came on.
2:19
The injury reports were so inconsistent. Yeah.
2:22
And you look at a game like Golden State-Houston, where we were certain Steph and Jimmy were probably going to be out because of the five-and-a-half point line movement towards the Rockets.
2:30
And then of course, you know, that gets, uh, that, that comes back with eight-point movement towards Golden State. Absolutely obscene line movement there.
2:37
You look at the Miami-Dallas game and you were talking about playing Bam props. Mm-hmm. And then all of a sudden, Bam doesn't play. Yep. Yep. And, you know, and who else was out for Miami?
2:47
I mean- It was Terry, Wiggins, they had that stomach illness. Bam, I don't think was the stomach bug. I think he was a left knee contusion it said. Yeah, I don't...
2:53
At least the night before he wasn't, uh, listed with the illness stuff.
2:57
So yeah, it's- Well, he was fantastic the night before You want, y- you wanna say kudos to the Mavericks, but we do kinda know that Miami was dealing with this stuff. But man, the Ma- Mavs keep picking up wins too.
3:07
Can't, I can't knock this stuff, man. I, it was, uh, they've looked, uh, pretty [laughs] way better than I was expecting. 30 and 26. I thought they would've folded by now.
3:15
By the way, unrecognizable lineup for the Dallas Mavericks. My goodness. No Kyrie, obviously, no Anthony Davis, no PJ Washington, no Lively obviously. Klay Thompson didn't play. Mm-hmm.
3:26
Uh, I mean, this starting five, i- i- it really is, like, unrecognizable. The fact that they just, uh, that these guys put up 118 on Miami and won a basketball game, it's like, whoa.
3:36
Yeah, so this is what, three and one since the... No, no, I'm sorry. That was, that was five games ago.
3:42
So you are, Mavericks are four and two since the Luka trade, and one was an OT loss, another one was another two-point loss. Uh, that's pretty good. It's pretty good. They're hanging around. They're hanging around.
3:54
A- and, uh, and, and news on Daniel Gafford this morning, uh, who will sit out at least six weeks because of a grade three strain of the MCL in his right knee. Uh, that coming from ESPN.
4:05
So, uh, things only getting worse for that front court in Dallas. Yeah, they are really depleted down there.
4:11
But hey, as long as they keep winning games and they keep going out there and stringing things together, some unlikely heroes. I mean, Maxwell Prosper, it's not like he had a, a wild game, but, you know, gets a start.
4:21
This is a guy who usually sees just a few minutes, averages under four points per game, and he goes out there, gives them double digits in a, in a starting effort. Minnesota, Oklahoma City, that one surprise you? Yeah.
4:32
I mean, really, yeah, brought it up yesterday on the show, right? If we're gonna, if we're gonna complain about the bad, uh, bad beats all the time, recognize when you get lucky.
4:39
The OKC win I had covering two nights ago was way, was way, b- uh, way worse. I, there's, I had no reason getting that one home.
4:47
Man, I thought the over, my over was looking good in that game though, and then we roll into the fourth quarter, Joe, and 34 combined points from the two teams. And, uh- Yeah, come on, they just mailed it in...
4:55
j- just goes under. But yeah, that's, uh, that was a good win for Minnesota. This is another game, uh, I, another game like the Warriors we talk about, War- uh, uh, Warriors and Houston have just kinda given it...
5:05
You, uh, you know, like people expecting before the All-Star Break maybe you slow down, mail it in a little bit. But these teams, I, I mean, they threw everybody out there.
5:12
This was a full strength ty- type of game, and both these, uh, teams battling, and Minnesota coming out on top.
5:18
I will say that fourth quarter though, that was about as, uh, a- as big of a pre-All-Star Break fourth quarter as you could ask for. Mm-hmm, yes. 'Cause they look like they both mailed it in by the fourth quarter.
5:28
34 combined points, like you mentioned. Clippers get home in overtime. They don't cover, but they beat Utah 120-116. How about the Pelicans? Beating Sacramento, 140-133. I know the Kings were a popular play yesterday.
5:41
Pelicans, they mailed it in. They ga- uh, they sent Ingram to Toronto. Mm-hmm. 13 and 42, one of the worst records in the league, but they pull it out in OT.
5:50
Yeah, this is, uh, the, this Pelicans team has just been one of the most fascinating teams to be in [laughs] the league for the past few years, 'cause I am, I'm a Zion fan. But the injury d- uh, injuries are undeniable.
6:01
But man, they still got some great young talent. Herb Jones is gonna miss the rest of the year it sounds like. Uh, but getting him back next year will be huge. Trey Murphy with another year of development.
6:09
It's a fun, young team. It's just see, interesting to see what they do with all these pieces. And Ingram, Ingram they had to move.
6:15
They had to move one of these guys just because of what their salary cap was ended up looking like. They're gonna have to pay. They got some big payments coming up from some of their younger stars.
6:22
But I, Pelicans, man, I know it's a bad season, but it's a bright future ahead in my opinion In college hoops, both ranked road favorites covered. Memphis went to USF, made a statement early, going up 15 at the half.
6:34
They end up winning by 15, covering seven and a half. Maryland goes to Nebraska, one-and-a-half point dogs in that one. So excuse me, I said road favorites.
6:43
They're the ranked team, but they were the, uh, underdog in that one, so Nebraska would've been your system play if you're all about taking the unranked home favorite against the ranked road opponent.
6:52
Maryland says, "Not this time." And that system, Kelly,'s actually, uh, not been working lately.
6:57
I've noticed it was hot and heavy to start the season, and then lately the, the higher ranked road teams have been coming out there winning. Yeah, I think it's, uh...
7:05
I, I mean, look, I think it's something to always be aware of, but you s- you still gotta pick and choose spots, right? Any- Absolutely...
7:10
any of these kind of systems and trends we talk about, it doesn't mean fire blindly on any of them. And this Maryland team, metric-wise, you know, I know that they're ranked 25th.
7:17
They're not the sexiest team, but they do have similar metrics to teams like Michigan, teams like Arizona, teams like Marquette, who are all, I think, much more highly regarded.
7:26
Maybe not Michigan, maybe they're about neck and neck. But Marquette, Arizona, much more highly regarded than Maryland. This is a team I'd start to look for.
7:33
Big 10 tournament, maybe March Madness, they could make some noise. What is... I'm trying to pull up what they are in the outright market right now, because- Maryland?
7:41
Yeah, because I heard someone, 65 to one to win the NCAA tournament. Uh, I heard Drew Dincic on the, uh, Deep Dive podcast, uh, just yesterday bring up that, uh- Oh, get out...
7:51
he recently got in on a ticket for them to win the tournament, just because he thinks that there are some flaws at the top. Yeah, I mean- And he thinks there are very beatable teams at the top.
8:00
You know, look, I, I would say right now it's, it's Duke, Alabama, Auburn, and then it's a wide-open field. Mm-hmm. And, you know, it's not hard.
8:07
You know, you, someone might look at that and say, "Well, you just gave three teams that seem like a sure thing, so it's gotta be one of them."
8:12
It's not hard for each of those teams to just have one off performance, get knocked off, and then it becomes wide open. Mm-hmm. Yep. You know? So I, I don't think there's a sure thing like Yukon in recent years.
8:22
Uh, Duke, Auburn, Bama, they are, I feel like, head and shoulders above the rest. They are in their own tier. But, I mean, if Alabama has a game where they get cold from beyond the arc, boom, they're exposed. Right.
8:31
You know? Right.
8:32
So, uh, as far as the next tier, it is pretty wide open, and if you're gonna take a team, maybe like an Iowa State or like an Arizona, oh, at that point, why not go for a Maryland or a Clemson and get way better odds?
8:43
Mm-hmm. Because, you know, we talked about Clemson yesterday with John Henson. I think they're a team in the outright market. I don't know if you have their number in front of you. I think Clemson is very live.
8:53
80 to one. Wow, longer shot than Maryland, huh? Yep. I love it. You should talk about them on your golf podcast. That's a long shot for you, right? [laughs] Yeah.
9:01
Speaking of the golf, what'd you, what was your takeaway from the Genesis yesterday? Oh, man, what a dis- I, A, it's, uh... I, as I saw a couple of these tweets going around, but it was fair.
9:09
The, uh, the Genesis Invitational turned into a US Open all of a sudden, because the conditions were absolutely gross.
9:15
Eh, we, we weren't worried about yesterday, but man, the rain, uh, basically throughout the entire round off and on, winds were gusting up to 25, 30 miles an hour. It was very evident, at least early in the day.
9:27
Um, you know, we, I was watching a bunch right off we got do- uh, right after we got done with the show. It was evident that greens were really tough for these guys to figure out with the wind.
9:35
Uh, with the rain soaking these poa greens and then the wind blowing as much as it was, there were some missed putts, as bad as I've seen in a while. So, uh, really looking forward to today's action.
9:45
Conditions are expected to be a little bit calmer, so we shouldn't have as much chaos out there on the court, Joe. Uh, but man, you still had...
9:53
It's tough when you, when you know you're battling in tough conditions and then you still see Scotty Scheffler just starting to cruise.
9:59
[laughs] Um, like I, I think there's, uh, you know, Denny McCarthy, this is gonna happen every once in a while. Denny McCarthy's your leader right now, four under par.
10:06
Then you got Seamus Power, Patrick Rodgers, three under par. Denny McCarthy, one of the best putters on the PGA tour. Putter got hot yesterday. Sometimes he's just gonna be able to...
10:13
I- it's hard for him to win tournaments 'cause, is it's hard for him to do that over four rounds consecutively, Joe. But for one round, he's always a good first round leader.
10:21
Look, I think because of stuts- stuff like this, gained over four strakes, uh, strokes on the field with the putter. Um, so that was massive. But Scotty Scheffler's only two shots off.
10:29
Listen to him on his post-round interview.
10:31
Man, I, it, for us that have been betting golf and Scotty Scheffler getting in the way so many times, uh, I did not like what I heard post-round from him, uh, Joe, because he was talking about how he thought he was in some, the best condition of his life this off-season right before he, uh, cut open his hand on old Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, whatever it was, and had to miss, miss a couple weeks and work on that.
10:53
But he start- he was saying how he's starting to get his swing back, starting to get the feel back, and I'm getting real nervous about what Scheffler, [laughs] how good Scheffler's gonna be going forward.
11:02
Would you consider him at two to one here, or is that just not enough? It was the first price I looked at. Ah, man, it's, I, I can't blame you if you go and bet it with him two shots off the lead.
11:10
I'd probably give it to today, though. I usually don't get involved. We'll talk about some of the live outright prices.
11:15
I did pick out and choose the, uh, uh, a couple that I thought could work if you really wanted to make a bet today.
11:20
I usually don't get involved in, uh, in-round match-ups or, or even in tournament, just picking outrights, till about the third round.
11:28
I wa- usually wanna see two rounds unfold, and especially with the weather being as crazy it was yesterday. Let's get a calm day, uh, in there first. Scotty, plus 210 on the live number. Rory, seven to one.
11:38
Denny McCarthy, 12 to one, your current leader. More golf, more college hoops on the other side. It's the Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Seralla.
11:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
The Numbers Game continues. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Seralla, taking you through this Friday, February 14th edition of the big show as we get you folks ready for the weekend.
12:13
And we'll start to get you ready for the NFL Draft as we welcome into the program, via the progressive guest line, our friend, NFL draft and college football analyst for A to Z Sports, my guy Joe DeLeon.
12:24
Joe, how you doing, man? There is no face I'd rather wake up to on Valentine's Day than yours. [laughs] I just wanna make that very clear from the start. That's so sweet of you to say, Joe. I'm doing great.
12:34
I, I tweeted out. I, I was very excited to get to talk to you today, and it wouldn't be, uh, it wouldn't be a true Valentine's Day if we didn't get to share this, this very special moment.
12:43
Kelly, it's nice to meet you, by the way. [laughs] Yeah. Joe, it's great to have you on the show. Yeah. But I echo that same sentiment, okay?
12:48
I would ra- who, who else would I rather spend Valentine's Day with than you two, okay? Come on. I, I mean, a couple of good-looking Joes. [laughs] That's right. A great way to start your morning, right?
12:56
Uh, Joe, I wanna start, you know, backtracking a little bit. It feels like the Super Bowl.
13:00
You know, we spent two weeks obviously, for those of you as, as part of the Numbers Game audience who don't know this, Joe is a regular on Cashing Out. Comes on every week.
13:08
So we spent two weeks previewing this game, leading up to it. It, you know, the two weeks felt like two years. And now, just five, six days later, it feels like the Super Bowl was already a year ago. Feels like old news.
13:19
But being a draft expert and analyst and a college football expert yourself, Kansas City right now, the second shot on the board, seven to one to win it next year.
13:29
I mean, where do you see this Chiefs team going in the draft? Where do you see them improving, as they're a little strapped for cash this off-season?
13:35
Well, o- one of my favorite early futures bets, and I know it's crazy early to be throwing one of these out there, I really like the idea of the Chiefs getting back there and winning it again.
13:45
If there's been a team- Wow... over the last five years that has done such a great job of identifying their weaknesses and improving, it's the Kansas City Chiefs.
13:54
If we go back even further than that, what helped the Patriots during their dynasty was the fact that Bill Belichick, before he completely collapsed as a talent evaluator, when he was making those general manager decisions, before that, they were great at finding talent late in drafts, on day two, on day three.
14:13
I feel like that this Kansas City front office is, has been great at improving.
14:18
The last time that they fell short and they didn't win a Super Bowl, they put together a tremendous draft class with Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis.
14:25
There was just such a, a, a effort put towards rebuilding the roster, and those guys are key contributors right now.
14:31
I think the most important thing for them, though, taking that next step, they need to address aggressively their offensive line, and they need to find better receiving options. And maybe also running back.
14:43
This is that run, uh, running back class that is extremely loaded for them to get guys on day two and on day three.
14:50
But at the back end of the first round, where they're sitting, they should really strongly consider drafting somebody, um, uh, you know, like a, a Gray Zabel from North Dakota State who would be a fantastic player, a Jonah Savinea who would be great at guard from Arizona.
15:06
And at receiver, this is not a great receiver class, which does not bode well for the Chiefs. But someone like a Matthew Golden from, uh, from Texas I think is worth considering.
15:18
Or a little bit later on, Jaden Higgins from Iowa State is somebody that I really, really like.
15:23
If they don't address either of those positions in this draft effectively, then I'm taking away that stance that I think they can go back and win a Super Bowl this upcoming year.
15:32
But I feel pretty confident that they're going to be strategic in approaching it.
15:35
Yeah, I'm, uh, I, I don't remember, I don't know how many picks they have in this year's draft, but I'd probably use almost every single one of them on offensive line. I think it's six total. Okay. Yeah.
15:43
[laughs] So at least five of them should probably go to the offensive line. I'm with you there, Joe. Uh, j- j- just hitting the futures board real quick, anything that jumped out to you?
15:50
'Cause I was a little surprised with s- a couple of the openers. [laughs] We're usually not. We get these odds the day after the Super Bowl every single year. Usually there's not any huge surprises to me.
15:59
But that, couple stood out, and a couple have moved. Is there any that gr- you gravitated to, uh, to right away? The one that caught my attention the most was the Bengals at 17 to one.
16:10
And part of me kind of wonders if that's gonna end up moving up after this off-season. The first thing that they addressed was moving on from Lou Anarumo, who's a great defensive coordinator.
16:20
But the guy that they hired from Notre Dame, Al Golden, was already a part of the staff at one point.
16:26
That is a very underrated decision to go with somebody who at one point was a position coach, who has familiarity with the system. There is no learning curve.
16:34
There is no chemistry building between him and, and, you know, the current [laughs] whole coaching staff and some of the guys that were already on the roster. So I love Al Golden as a DC.
16:42
I think he's a brilliant defensive mind. That is gonna help them improve.
16:45
And a lot of this, too, last draft they were aggressive at addressing their defense, but they had a lot of young dudes that were not really ready to contribute to the degree that they needed.
16:56
The thing that hold them back was their defense being a mess. It had nothing to do with Joe Burrow. He was so good that he was in the MVP conversation despite missing the playoffs.
17:06
So if there's one team out there this upcoming NFL off-season and this NFL season that has a, just a really nice draft class and takes this huge leap forward, I think that the Cincinnati Bengals are, are worth considering.
17:19
Yeah, they've already moved down a tick from 18 to one to 17 to one. Yeah.
17:22
I, I expect that to probably, uh, get, you know, a little shorter than 15 to one here, uh, in, in the not-so-distant future when it comes to the Bengals. All right, Joe, what about the Champs? What about the Eagles?
17:32
Howie Roseman has put on clinic after clinic when it comes to the draft, whether it, it's pretty much just going down to Georgia and swooping up their entire championship-winning defense.
17:43
I mean, you got Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Nakobe Da- [laughs] Uh, the Eagles are the Geo- are the Georgia Bulldogs. It's absolutely insane.
17:51
Uh, what he did last year with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean was, I, I think a bit of a surprise, doubling down on that position. And both of those guys had, uh, had Rookie of the Year caliber campaigns.
18:03
What do the Eagles do here?
18:05
Yeah, I think that for them in this upcoming draft, there's not really any major priorities that they need to go after, because you just mentioned there, th- this los- this roster's not only loaded, but it also has depth.
18:17
For me, it was like... And I did a mock draft a few weeks ago before the Super Bowl. It was kinda hard to pinpoint what makes sense in the first round.
18:25
They're probably gonna be a trade back candidate because there's nothing super urgent for them to go after. They can continue to accumulate draft in a draft class that has a lot of really good defensive prospects.
18:35
But I feel like adding into the mix- Another receiver for them is important. We know that A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are, are amazing.
18:43
But you get a third option with Jahan Dotson, who didn't really do a whole lot after they traded for him.
18:49
The one thing, though, that I have a little bit of pause with talking about them repeating, I feel like a lot of things had to go right for them in order for them to go on this run, and then play as dominantly as they did in the Super Bowl.
19:03
And the very specific thing I'm referring to is the health of Saquon Barkley. Saquon Barkley is the best running back in football. He's one of the greatest running back prospects that we've ever seen. Yeah.
19:12
He is insanely talented. But the thing with him is he- we've seen inconsistencies with his availability. He'll have a great season, and then the next year he'll end up getting banged up.
19:23
It's the reality that we live in with running backs.
19:25
So I, I have a little bit of pause seeing how important he was for their success, for Jalen Hurts' success, for the offense just being so much better the way that they played this year.
19:35
I'm a little bit off knowing that if Saquon gets banged up, and he misses, starts to miss periods of time, or he's out for the playoff next year, that that is gonna impact their chances of repeating.
19:46
Well, what, what, what I'll say to that, Joe, is first off, you're right. No Saquon, no Super Bowl, right? And people can say, "Oh, well he only had 50-something yards."
19:53
Yeah, he was their best player the entire, you know, path to getting there. And then in the Super Bowl, Kansas City's entire game plan revolved around taking him out of the game.
20:01
And so then Jalen Hurts and the, and the pass game were able to go and attack Kansas City's defense. But absolutely, no Saquon, no Super Bowl. Where I'll disagree with you is think about why Saquon's been hurt so much.
20:13
You and I are both Giants fans, man. The Giants haven't put out a competent offensive line in over a decade by now. Well, my, my counter to your counter, though, that doesn't prevent him from getting hit, though.
20:25
Just 'cause he's able to go so much further down the field before getting hit at the line of scrimmage doesn't mean that he's going to not, you know, get contacted by a defender later on into a play.
20:37
I, I vaguely remember when he tore his ACL against the Bears, it wasn't, like, a huge gain. And I'm trying to remember exactly what had happened.
20:46
But he was trying to string out a play, and he was trying to create space for himself, and he just got driven way too hard into the ground. That led to his foot planting awk- awkwardly.
20:55
So the running back position, you can get hurt doing anything. You can get hurt standing still. I'm being hyperbolic, but it's a position- I would hope...
21:03
you take enough hits throughout a season, wear and tear starts to factor in, and you could tear it in open field just trying to make a cut.
21:10
And I'm not trying to pitch that Saquon's gonna get hurt, and that I want him to get hurt, but all I'm trying to say here is that it is such a hard position to bank on health.
21:19
The best guys are the ones who have been the most healthy, and I'm sure that Saquon is gonna have another great season. Joe, final minute. Let's get to the draft here.
21:26
Obviously we'll be talking about the draft a lot in the coming months. Cam Ward, odds-on to go number one to Tennessee, -120. Behind him, Abdul Carter, +225. Shedeur is 4/1. Travis Hunter a little longer than that, +425.
21:40
And then Jaxson Dart, 40/1. So really you're dealing with four guys that are shorter than 5/1. Where do you see the Titans going?
21:47
Potentially could a move like an Aaron Rodgers mix up where quarterbacks go, and mix up the, uh, the top of the draft? I, I think that it's open-ended on what they're gonna do.
21:57
They could go, either go quarterback, or they could end up approaching defense, taking Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter.
22:02
But for the betting angle specifically, I'm sticking with taking Cam Ward to be this first overall pick. Because if they decide to trade out, anyone who moves up to draft a quarterback is going for Cam Ward.
22:14
The more that I've evaluated him and Shedeur Sanders, the more that the general public has evaluated him, and the NFL has dug in, there's a clear difference in the talent level. Shedeur Sanders is super high floor.
22:25
He's super talented. He can be a great pro. But Cam Ward's got the big arm, and can turn into a top 10 quarterback, or even better in the NFL. Joe, no one's more in tune with this stuff than you.
22:36
You put me on to Cam Ward when he was back at Incarnate Word. I wanna give you credit for that one. Enjoy your Valentine's Day. Send Christina my best. Appreciate you coming on. Follow him on Twitter, @JoeDeLeon.
22:47
More Numbers Game after the break. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:06
Welcome into a Numbers Game with me, Joe Serallo, alongside Kelly Bidlin, getting you ready for your weekend here on this Friday, February 14th edition of the show.
23:16
And with the weekend comes a lot of Premier League action on tap. Who better to talk about it with than our friend Paul Carr from True Media Sports, and of course, the Expected Value podcast.
23:27
Gave out some great Champions League winners, some incredible value just the other day. Let's see if we can do it again with the Premier League. Paul, how you doing, man? I'm good. I'm good.
23:37
Yeah, we didn't, no Premier League last weekend 'cause it was the FA Cup, so we're getting back in the swing of things.
23:42
Uh, we're about two-thirds of the way through the season, so we're starting to head down the stretch. And we've got a match out to start.
23:47
No official play from you on it, but I'd love to get your thoughts on this Brighton-Chelsea match. Yeah, this is an interesting one.
23:52
Brighton's, I'd say they've underachieved a little bit all season from kinda what people expected them to be. Uh, Chelsea's been playing pretty well on the whole.
24:00
And Nico Jackson is the big question mark here, 'cause he's out. He's their top scorer forward up top. He's out for this game, so I don't really have a play.
24:10
Uh, I kinda lean, I guess if I had to, I'd do something like Brighton draw no better, a little better than even money if I had to play something. But no official play here.
24:17
I think this'll be a pretty interesting game, but I don't have a good feeling about which way it might go. Paul, you've been on a tear recently.
24:23
We were talking about during the break, over eight units, uh, on, given out, up, uh, up over eight units over the show, over the past month on the show, uh, on an absolute tear.
24:31
Champions League, it feels like I can remember about one losing day for you over that time. Uh, and I know we got a few plays to get to. I did wanna just ask you a question, though.
24:39
For, for people that are getting, i- trying to get into betting soccer, whether it's Premier League, Champions League, any of the European leagues, just kind of biggest piece of advice you have for what people should be looking at, uh, you know, stat-wise or, or what, how they should begin their process of learning how to i- learning and advancing handicapping soccer.
24:57
Yeah, and there's obviously a lot of different approaches. There's... Some things are just very practical.
25:01
For example, we c- we'll talk about this next week when we hit the Champions League second legs, uh, where there can be extra time, and it's just when you're in these knockout tournaments, it's know what's at stake and know what teams have to do.
25:12
Like, there'll be some weird lines next week because a draw will get a team through, or they can lose and still advance.
25:17
Uh, so just the simple mechanics of making sure you know what you're betting and what the team motivations are are probably the first thing.
25:25
'Cause I think everyone who has started betting soccer has, uh, you know, made a bet, and you think it loses, or you think it wins, but you realize you made a regulation bet, and there was extra time, and, and you get your...
25:36
get it mixed up as far as what you actually bet.
25:38
So that's kind of the, the biggest thing is just make sure you understand, you know, what's the two-way lines, the three-way lines, uh, regulation types of things like that.
25:46
That would be something that I would- Just the, the basic stuff. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I, I did it. I've done it. [laughs] Everyone's done it when they start betting soccer.
25:52
You, you think you won something, then you realize it was a to advance instead of a 90-minute bet or something along those lines. Yeah, to advance than to lift the trophy, right?
25:59
Make sure you're looking at those markets- Right... when you... especially when you get into these- Right... tournaments like you're talking about. Paul, it's great advice. Yeah.
26:05
You know I'm a novice when it comes to betting soccer, but as someone who grew up on Long Island, I'm a bit of an expert when it comes to Southampton. What's your play for the- All right... Southampton-Bournemouth game?
26:14
Yeah, I think we're gonna get some goals here one way or the other. I have over three and a half at plus 130. Uh, this may look a little odd.
26:20
You have teams that are 10th and 15th in total goals this season out of the 20 Premier League teams, but they're third and sixth in total expected goals.
26:28
And, you know, expected goals just how many goals you're expected to score based on the shots that you take.
26:33
Uh, and both teams are just running a little bit cold offensively, but four of Southampton's last five have had four-plus goals.
26:40
And this is a stylistic bet as well in the sense that Southampton gives the ball away at the back. Their defenders try to hang on to it. They give it away a lot.
26:49
And Bournemouth presses with their attackers as well as any team in the league. They have the third-most possessions that start in that attacking third.
26:57
So I think Bournemouth's press will give Southampton trouble, which will lead to goals. Uh, so I like goals here, plus 130 on the over three and a half.
27:04
All right, like continuing on Saturday, Crystal Palace and Everton, another total play for you here. What you got, Paul? Yeah, this one's... This is a little bit of a zag. Uh, it's over two and a half at plus 120.
27:15
Uh, Crystal Palace, Everton, you would just call them kinda under type of teams this season. They're both in the bottom five in goals scored. But again, things are trending up.
27:24
Uh, Everton has a new manager, who was their old manager. His name's David Moyes. And they, through the last five, have had four-plus goals and two and a half plus expected goals.
27:34
And they've scored in four straight Premier League games with multiple goals in three of those.
27:37
So I'm not saying that he's opening the team up, but he is giving them more opportunities to score than they kinda had under the previous regime, which was, uh, under Sean Dyche, was much more defensive.
27:48
Uh, and Palace has been better lately in, in attack. They've scored twice in four of their last six.
27:52
I might hate this pick 10 minutes in when it looks like both teams are fine with a zero, zero, but getting plus 120 on over two and a half, I will take that chance.
28:00
And Paul, you've been killing it with the plus money plays. Of course, I wanna, you know, give some acknowledgement, give some credit to that- [laughs]... plus 290 over, who was that? Man City, Real Madrid the other day?
28:09
Man City, Real Madrid, yeah. Yeah, over four and a half. That's over, I think it was one, one. Yeah, one-one in the 80th minute and over four and a half hits. [laughs] No sweat. But I mean- What, what-...
28:16
that was part of the bet was, like, these teams get weird late in general- Yeah... especially Real Madrid. Things just open up, and things get crazy.
28:23
So, uh, again, obviously it worked out really well, my favorite, the stoppage time winner. But that was part of the play is that things get loose late, and crazy stuff can happen. What a finish for you.
28:32
That game's one-one in the 80. If you had Juventus, which won in the, I think 82nd minute, it, it was a strong, uh, strong day of finishes in the Champions League for you.
28:41
So you've been giving out these plus money overs with pretty good success. How about an under? What do you like in that Liverpool match? Yeah, I'll take the under three and a half here at minus 110.
28:51
Wrote a lot of Liverpool unders early in the season when they were really just kinda choking the life out of the game with possession.
28:58
They're not quite doing that as much now as they used to, but they're also not the rip-roaring attacking team they were under Jürgen Klopp last season.
29:06
Uh, they scored two or fewer in 8 of their 11 home games, and this game is at home. And they've only conceded more than once in two of their nine home games.
29:14
So it's always a little scary to bet an under on a Liverpool home game, 'cause you just think, you know, like any team at their home venue, which is, you know, raucous and just a classic venue like Anfield is, it's a little bit scary.
29:25
'Cause you just think they're gonna get rolling and hang four on Wolverhampton, which they might. But this Wolves team is not very good. They're really fortunate that they're not in the relegation zone now.
29:34
They, they could still fall in there. I just think this is, like, a two-nil, three-nil type of game for Liverpool, where they're in control. They don't go nuts. But they, you know, it's a, a lunch pail type of game.
29:43
You know, you're at home. Get your three points. Go on your way, and keep that, uh, lead safe in the Premier League title race.
29:49
All right, Paul, uh, I'm gonna bring you back to the top goalscorer market, because, uh, as, as you can tell- Yeah, stranger... from it, yeah, yeah, you know, I'm, I'm a little obsessed with this.
29:57
The, uh, Er- Erling Haaland, I, I feel like I've been trying to get in- involved with it s- at some point during the season. Uh, I haven't yet.
30:04
I think it's pretty interesting though to see Mo Salah now with a three-goal lead. Uh, I know you're on the under with the Liverpool game on, on Sunday. He's got a three-goal lead though right now.
30:13
He's mi- moved to the favorite, minus 125, Haaland plus 140. Uh, I was really hoping to get involved here- [laughs]... but I was hoping for a longer number. How do you look at this market right now?
30:23
Yeah, I'm kinda feeling similar to that in that seeing Haaland at plus 140, I, I don't remember seeing him that long over the past several years. So that, my first instinct is like, "Ah, we gotta jump on that."
30:35
D- do you- But Salah's... But yeah, is he really gonna make up three- Right... and maybe four? It kinda... It depends on your book if they pay out a dead heat or whatever they do, uh, if, if guys tie.
30:45
That's tough at just one- plus 140. Pick... I mean, it's not like Salah is slowing down or anything, and Liverpool is gonna have to, uh, push. The only case I can really make for Haaland here is
30:57
Liverpool rests Salah toward the end of the season.
30:59
Like, they clinch the title with, say, five games left, which they possibly could, maybe not that many, and he sits out a few games 'cause they're deep in Champions League or something
31:07
But, you know, I mean, City's gonna be pushing for top four, so that's the only case I can really make.
31:11
Like, maybe it just gets, like, three more games than Salah does from kind of a Man City's gotta win this perspective. So unfortunately we're still priced correctly pretty much yet, Dave. I think so.
31:19
I would want close- Shucks... plus 200. Yeah, that's what I was hoping to find. All right, maybe I'll shop around, see if I can. Paul, you mentioned City making a push for top four.
31:26
While we're talking futures, Liverpool's pretty in command to win the league, but is there any value in that top four market, anything that intrigues you there? Uh, nothing crazy. I still kinda like Newcastle.
31:36
They're about plus 225. I have a future on them from before the season at almost that identical price, so it's not something I'm going out to play. Uh, but yeah, you have essentially four teams for two spots.
31:47
Uh, s- I feel like Newcastle's a couple points off of fourth right now, so I kinda like that. The one X factor in all of this is,
31:56
and this is a little bit complicated, but the Premier League's probably gonna get five Champions League spots, which means a team could be in fifth going into the last few days and not have to push for top four, which is a little bit strange.
32:07
But it depends on how all the English teams do in Champions League and the other European competitions this year. So that's just kind of a wrinkle to keep an eye on.
32:14
Like, Newcastle or any team could be in fifth going into the last couple days and be fine with that, depending on how everything else shakes out, both in Europe and in the Premier League.
32:22
Speaking of Newcastle, they've got a match with Man City tomorrow. Man City laying five cents, Newcastle plus 245, draw 3 to 1 there. Anything on that board that intrigues you? Any lean in that contest?
32:32
Yeah, I was thinking about the Newcastle double chance at minus 120. I've played a lot of dou- double chances against Man City this season successfully.
32:39
I'm not ready to say Man City is back in this game, but, you know, they've looked okay. Um, I just still don't quite trust them.
32:48
I mean, we saw it against Real Madrid where they were ahead two, three times and ended up losing that match, and that's kind of what City's been all season, just not quite clicking, especially defensively.
32:57
So I feel like Newcastle has the personnel with Alexander Isak and company to really take advantage of a weak Man City defense.
33:03
So I would lean toward Newcastle double chance minus 120, or maybe you could find a better price if you shop around. Paul, as always, sensational stuff, man. Really appreciate the time. Thanks for hopping on. You bet.
33:14
Happy Valentine's. Have a good weekend. Yeah, you as well. Our buddy Paul Carr, make sure you follow him on Twitter @paulcarr. Check out the Expected Value Podcast too. That guy gives out a lot of value, that's for sure.
33:24
A lot of plus money plays, and a lot of them hit. Yep. Yep. Yeah, I, I, m- man, he's been on a hell of a run here the past couple months on this show. I'm just trying to fi- I'm shopping soccer prices right now, man.
33:33
I'm trying to find Haaland at, at, like, plus 170. I think I'd get involved. I think I'd get involved. That guy's a beast.
33:40
You know, I, I fell into the same trap that you've warned me about, because I don't bet soccer and, and you said that you and Gil sometimes, "Paul, come on, give out some great plays." And you'll be like, "You know what?
33:48
I'm gonna play that." And then you get home after the show and you settle down and, you know, you know, you make yourself a soy latte like Kelly loves to do.
33:54
[laughs] And you realize, "Oh, shoot, the match already started." Yeah. That happened to me with Juventus the other day. I was gonna play it, and then I look and I'm like, "Oh, 40th minute. Very cool." [laughs] Yeah.
34:03
Yeah, yeah, it happens to me way too often. Way too often. Yeah, it's the- It's, those soy lattes just take too long. They're too time-consuming- Oh, man... for you to make.
34:10
It's always, you know, you get done, we got some post-show stuff we gotta do, maybe run a- an errand or two on the way home, and then I'm settled down at my, uh, desk working on some NBA stuff for the day, working on the next day's show, and then I look up, like you said, and it's, oh, we're in the 20th minute already.
34:23
Yep, that's exactly- Dang... what happened to me. And it would've been a sweat. You know, maybe, maybe it would've been a winner, but maybe I was okay without the stress in my life.
34:31
Speaking of your NBA stuff for the day, three-point contest, that's what we have to cap up next on Our Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serollo. [upbeat music]
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