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Feb 17, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 17, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 17, 2025
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, let's have some fun to start the week off.
0:14
It's time for a Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam, live from our beautiful VSiN Studios, downtown Las Vegas at the Circa Casino & Resort. I'm Joe Serallo, live from Los Angeles.
0:25
Kelly, stop me if you've heard this one before, but I am currently in Los Angeles right now because, yes, I had more car problems trying to come back to Vegas yesterday.
0:34
Yeah, you really, uh, you really run on a hot streak with those things, man. That is, uh, [laughs] it was brutal. That's a brutal beat though when you were trying to drive back here yesterday, the old nail in the tire.
0:43
Yep, that happens. Yeah. You know, I, I was looking around my parking spot at the apartment. I'm starting to wonder if it was a coincidence or if it was the ex, but, you know- [laughs]... a nail in the side of the tire.
0:52
It's, uh, it's always a fun way, uh, it's a Sunday fun day when that happens. You know, my man? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Uh, it was a fun Sunday for you.
1:00
I mean, we were talking all week, Kelly, about, you know, it being kind of a dead weekend in sports and not much going on. Obviously, you had the Daytona 500.
1:08
You and I not big NASCAR guys, but, uh, you were able to hit a couple long shots this weekend. It was a pretty profitable one for you, huh? Yeah, good golf betting week.
1:16
Finally, uh, hit a, hit the first outright of the season, Ludvig Aberg, uh, so that was nice. Not all of us can be Wes Reynolds. Wes coming on in about an hour here. [laughs] Uh, we'll talk to him about that.
1:24
I know he had a, uh, I, I think, believe a top 10 on Ludvig. Uh, but not all of us can be Wes. We can't hit three in a row, but hopefully I'm starting it now, Joe. That's what I'm trying.
1:32
That's what I'm gonna keep saying, is I'm gonna be like Wes Reynolds now. Well, you gotta get the first one if you're gonna get three in a row. So started with the first one. Ludvig, uh, looking great yesterday.
1:40
Maverick McNealy really went low, put the pressure on, uh, that everybody on that leaderboard yesterday going really low to start the day, and Ludvig having to battle back. Did a great job, uh, shooting 66.
1:51
Goes out there, wins it by one stroke over Maverick McNealy. Uh, so yeah, good win and good win for the Long Shots crew. Matt Brown on him as well.
1:58
Yeah, awesome weekend for you, and we'll get back to, uh, your profitable weekend. We've got a busy hour ahead.
2:04
The Four Nations Face-Off got, uh, got a little steamy on Saturday, so we'll dive into that later on, bottom of the hour, with our friend Johnny Lazarus, host of the Daily Face-Off.
2:15
He's gonna break down both games tonight. The USA has clinched a spot in the finals later this week. I believe that's February 20th, if I'm not mistaken.
2:24
So we'll break it all down, a potential USA-Canada rematch I know would be fun. Kelly, were you able to catch what happened when, uh, the US and Canada squared off earlier in the weekend? Oh, it was great. It was great.
2:35
I can't wait to talk to Johnny too, 'cause I'm getting a little bit more excited e- every day this tournament goes by. I'm really wondering about betting against the United States tonight. Like, if this is- Oh. Oh...
2:45
I, I got too many questions for Johnny. I, it's a plus price- Yeah... on Sweden. Uh, i- y- USA's already locked up a spot in that championship game. Isn't this still, like, All-Star festivity replacement stuff?
2:56
I mean, I would... It's hockey, so the guys are way tougher, but, like, w- isn't this the time the stars should be demanding a break? Like, this is [laughs] like to- if we're clinched, why am I playing?
3:06
Well, what, what I will say to that, and I don't know, maybe we could pull up the odds, that'd be great, um, or I could see if I could get them in front of me. So I could be mistaken.
3:14
From what I've gathered, if Canada or Finland wins the game in regulation, the winner is going to the championship against the US, so then it wouldn't matter for the US or Sweden.
3:25
But from what I gather, if they win in overtime, there is a chance that Sweden with a regulation win against the US could make the championship. Yeah.
3:36
So e- essentially, i- if that Canada-Finland game is done in regulation, Sweden-US is an exhibition. Yeah. So you're saying there's a chance. That's what you're saying, though. I'm saying there is a chance.
3:46
If Sweden, uh, they got a shot. I'm saying you might, you might wanna wait for Canada and Finland to wrap. That game, of course, is an early start.
3:53
It's gonna be 10:00 AM Pacific Time, so shortly after we wrap here at a Numbers Game. Uh, Canada minus $4.50 on the money line, Finland plus 340. Sweden plus 160.
4:04
Now, that game, i- I'd imagine that game would not be so, uh, a, as evenly priced as it is if the United States had not already clinched a spot in the championship. Puck line intrigues me there.
4:16
I mean, you're laying a little juice, minus 155 for Sweden, plus a goal and a half. But i- it does intrigue me as a bit of a safer play, plus 160 on the money line if you're feeling frisky. Yeah, I don't hate either.
4:28
I mean, I can't imagine, like, right now, obviously, USA-Canada, there's a lot behind that w- with what happened Saturday and the booing and everything.
4:35
And by the way, you can call it a hot take, I don't blame them for booing. I, I mean, Kelly, I don't know what you think about this.
4:41
I know that if, I don't know, Germany was out there talking about making the United States one of its territories a- and Angela, Angela Merkel was running her mouth in that fashion, I have a feeling, call me crazy, I have a feeling the US crowd would probably boo Germany.
4:57
Yeah. So- Yeah... I d- I don't hate the booing. I, I, it's pretty understandable given the, you know, the, the climate and the times that we're in.
5:04
I actually love what it's doing for the rivalry, 'cause it gave us a hell of a game. Mm-hmm. Yeah, no, i- s- s- from a sports standpoint, uh, tho- those- Yeah, from an entertainment perspective...
5:13
booing, stuff like that makes sports better, right? You saw the... I, I mean, it's hockey, so it's great, but we get all these guys j- just, I mean, what was it? Three fights in the first, like, 30 seconds or whatever.
5:22
It was r- it was crazy. Uh, but yeah, I mean, make, it makes this stuff more entertaining.
5:26
Um, obviously hockey's gonna be different from basketball, but NBA maybe take notes on what you can do with these different sorts of setups around All-Star r- uh, break. Yeah.
5:36
I, I mean, look, I can proudly say I watched none of the NBA festivities this weekend. I saw some McClung highlights on Twitter, and they were great. But I don't know, Kelly, what, what's your take on this?
5:46
I think that while Mac McClung is a sick dunker, I think him being in the dunk contest, having played, what, 12 total minutes of NBA action- Mm...
5:55
this season, going back to October, and then last season I don't think he appeared in the NBA at all. He w- he was, I believe, G League all year. You know, it's the NBA All-Star Weekend, right?
6:05
Uh, if you're gonna have McClung in it, now he's phenomenal at what he does. He's fantastic at dunking.
6:10
But if you're gonna have him in it, why not just have guys off the street who are making YouTube videos dunking in it? You know, it- it's not the G League All-Star Weekend, it's the NBA All-Star Weekend. Yeah.
6:20
And I do think it loses a little something, even though he's a three-time champ. You know, only three-peat we've seen this month. Sorry, Kansas City.
6:26
Uh, even though he's a three-time champ now, I- I really do feel like it loses something because he's not, in reality, an NBA player. Yeah, I agree. And that- that was kind of my takeaway after it too.
6:37
It's just become the Mac McClung show, and he's a- he's awesome. It's amazing. But if you're going to... If you're gonna put up that level of dunking talent, you're right.
6:43
And no o- no other NBA star- no NBA stars are gonna participate in it. Then, yeah, grab some of the YouTubers, grab some of the guys we know see, we see making these awesome dunks all the time all over the internet.
6:53
There are other guys out there that can do this stuff. Um, yeah, I- I agree with you.
6:58
I w- I guess the only part I'm get- I'm getting tired of it being just the Mac McClung ex- exhibition, even though it is still fun to watch. He puts on a show every year.
7:06
Um, but, eh, you know, every year you get these NBA guys on Twitter afterward being like, "Oh, like I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do it." Like, well, get out there. Get out there.
7:14
Stop running your mouths and just get out there and play. Actually enter the dunk contest. Everybody...
7:18
This is one of the things that LeBron, uh, you know, I, I don't want to blame him for a lot of the All-Star Game failures and weekend failures, but, like, we've seen all the, all the, all the legends of old participated in the dunk contest.
7:30
They'll make it a thing. LeBron never did. Yeah. He said he was going to, never did.
7:34
And just, I, you know, it's become a thing now that these stars don't participate in it, and you'd love to see a bi- couple big names in there. You know, look, I- I'm a LeBron defender. I love LeBron.
7:44
To me, he's the GOAT, and I know that's a conversation for another day. It's, you know, probably a, a great segment, uh, segment filler in July when things get really slow around here.
7:54
But as much as I love LeBron, you're spot on there, and that's, I think, one of the biggest ways he's dropped the ball in his career, was we always heard, "Oh, I'm gonna do the dunk contest.
8:03
I'm gonna do the dunk contest." Jordan did it. I, I mean, Dominique Wilkins did it. You know, Vince Carter did it.
8:08
N- N- Not that Carter is on the level of those guys, but there were stars in the dunk contest back in the day. Yep. And LeBron always talked about it, but he never ultimately did it.
8:19
And I don't want to hear like, "Oh, injury risk, injury liability." Kelly, can you think of anyone who's ever gotten hurt doing the dunk contest?
8:26
No, I'm not to say it's impo- not to say it's impossible, but, you know, for as many games that you play in, right? I mean, as many All-Star games, it's got to be just as big of a concern, if not more.
8:36
Now, having said that, LeBron also chose not to play in the All-Star Game this weekend [laughs], which was... That was... Uh, there, there's- That I have no issue with. At this point, I mean, the All-Star Game's a joke.
8:45
I, I mean, the timing I have an issue with, though, Joe. I, I- Yeah... I think him and Anthony Edwards both, uh, deciding not to play with what, you know, their injury, injuries that they're dealing with.
8:55
Um, you know, they, they decide- they're taking a couple spots away from other guys that could've been there. I think, like, yeah, I heard a couple people bring this up.
9:01
But Norman Powell, a couple guys that participated in three-point contests easily could have filled in for either one of them. Timing was just a little weird.
9:08
If you're hurt, and LeBron's, I think it's probably a little bit more of a thing. Like, if you were hurt on Friday, you know, alert someone. That's fine.
9:14
You can still be named to the team, um, and someone fill in for you. It's just, uh, that, that stuff was a little rough.
9:20
I kind of liked the new format, but I understand some of the, you know, some of the NBA stars not liking it with, with the giving the shot to the younger guys, the yo- the rising stars, uh, to knock them off in an All-Star Game.
9:32
I do think that's probably a betting angle for going forward of whatever the money line is against [laughs] the rising stars team to play.
9:39
Just lay the big money line because I think these NBA vets are, are not taking it very well that these young guys are getting a shot in the All-Star Game. Yeah, well, Draymond Green said it.
9:48
His quote was, "We get the treat of watching the Olympic team take on the under-19 team." Yeah. "What are we doing here?" And, you know, I don't, I don't agree with him often. I think he's spot on in this case.
9:59
So Kelly, what do, what do you think? I know Giannis has tossed around the, the old go back to the US versus the world idea. I, I know Dave and Jensen were talking about it on VSIN By the Books before we came on.
10:09
I, I think that would be way more entertaining than what we saw yesterday. Oh, 100%. I, the problem is, is we keep bri- th- this has now been brought up a f- couple years ago [laughs], a few years ago.
10:19
I, I think keep changing around the format. I don't know if we're ever gonna see that, but I, of course, I agree.
10:24
That would be the best thing you could run out there right now, where at least there would be a little bit of care, uh, you would think on either side. I mean, we see that in the Ryder Cup in golf.
10:33
We're seeing the Four Nations face off. It just becomes a little bit more when you put the flag on your jersey. And- Right...
10:38
I mean, that's, you know, I, I think that's about the only way that you're gonna get some of these guys, uh, into this stuff. I don't know, though. I mean, we've seen the end-season tournament.
10:46
In my, in my opinion, the NBA Cups worked pretty well these first two years, and it's just a cash bonus on it. Now, these guys get a cash bonus already for winning the All-Star Game. Do we need to increase that?
10:56
Does that not matter at all? It seems not to matter at all. So I do think, yeah, that would be the only form... Let's put it this way, Joe. I'm a huge NBA fan. It's my biggest, the sport I bet the most. Right.
11:05
I, this is a, this is a very skippable event for me every Sunday.
11:09
I watched more of Daytona 500 yesterday than I did of any of the All-Star Game, and you gotta do something if you're gonna get the people that actually care about basketball to watch this again.
11:18
Is that the Florida man in you taking over, watching the Daytona 500? No, no, that's the degenerate bettor in me, Joe. [laughs] Like, that is, like, live betting Daytona. Did you have action on it? Live betting Daytona.
11:26
Did, did you tail our guy? I, no, I didn't, 'cause Phil Bobbit hit again. He hit again. William Byron hit to one. 20 to one on the winner, right? That's right. Was it 20, 23?
11:34
20, yeah, 20 to one, and he hit on one of the duels. What was that, Wednesday night? Yeah, Thursday. Yeah.
11:38
W- Whenever he came on, I believe it was Thursday night, he hit on the second duel race, which I, I don't even know what a duel race is. But he hit on it 10 to one. More A Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin.
11:46
I'm Joe Serallo. Up next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
12:03
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12:14
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12:28
Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. Joe Serallo here, taking you through a numbers game all week alongside Kelly Bidlin. And right now, with the Four Nations Face-Off, two games today on the slate.
12:43
We're gonna take you to the Progressive Guest Line and welcome in one of our favorite hockey analysts, the pride of Syosset High School some people call him, our friend Jonny Lazarus, who you can catch, of course, on the Daily Faceoff.
12:54
Jonny, how you doing, my man? I'm good, Joe. I'm actually sipping on a Woodbury Country Deli iced coffee right now, getting ready to drive up to Boston after we hop off here.
13:04
Wow, that is as Syosset a morning as you could start off. I, I absolutely love it, man. Take us through the, uh, the games today. Four Nations Face-Off. Jonny, I wanna make sure I've got this information correct.
13:16
So from what I've gathered, if Canada/Finland has a winner in regulation, the winner will take on the US in the championship game. But if it goes to overtime, Sweden still has an outside shot if they win in regulation.
13:29
Is that correct, or do you have to, uh- That is-... tweak that? That is exactly correct. Uh, so if you are Team Sweden right now, you're just rooting for a draw in the afternoon game.
13:39
Uh, because Canada and Finland both beat Sweden head-to-head, they own the tiebreaker, and that is why this is the case.
13:47
So the only chance Sweden does have, or Sweden does have, excuse me, is if one, Finland or Canada come away with two points instead of the three points.
13:56
'Cause this is a three, two, one point system, which is different than the NHL regular season, where in the NHL you get two points for a win, whether that be overtime or regulation, and you get one point for the overtime loss.
14:08
Whereas this tournament, you get three points for a regulation win, you get two for an overtime win, you get one for a regula- or for an overtime loss, excuse me, which I think the NHL should go to, um, for their regular season because I do think it is, it is a better point system at the end of the day, and college hockey actually does that as well.
14:24
So it's not very- Oh... uncommon in the hockey world.
14:27
So hopefully they do go to this at some point in the future, 'cause I think it just makes for overall better hockey, and teams are more rewarded for winning in regulation as opposed to finding the overtime win.
14:37
I like it. It definitely spices things up a bit. And Jonny, Canada, I mean, they're a massive favorite against Finland. Minus 440 on the moneyline. Even the puck line, laying one and a half is minus 160.
14:48
Do you see Canada winning this one in regulation? What plays, what action do you like in this game? So I like Canada minus one and a half on the puck line.
14:57
Um, I just think they're, you know, they're the clear-cut better team. They're, they're bigger, they're faster, they're stronger. You know, they're more talented.
15:03
The only way that Finland can stay in this game, to me, is if they score the first goal and sit back and protect the lead.
15:10
The first goal in this game is gonna be huge because, listen, I think Finland can be a little bit realistic with themselves. They probably know they're a little outmatched.
15:18
Um, and that's no disrespect or no shade thrown at them. They do have a great goalie in Juuse Saros, so if they are able to get out and get that first goal, they can trust and rely on him to make the big saves.
15:29
But if they go down one-nothing, I just don't see them finding a way to claw back. And I know there's an argument that could be made that Sweden overcame a two-goal deficit against Canada.
15:38
They came back from down three to one and forced overtime. But I, I just think with the magnitude of today's game, Canada knowing they have to win in regulation, it's gonna be that much harder.
15:50
So if Finland can score the first goal, who knows, it could be a wild outcome. But if Canada comes out and scores the first goal, I just don't see it going Finland's way at all.
16:00
Yeah, I mean, look, to your point, it's no disrespect to Finland, but this Canada team, i- you know, it's, it's clear that there are tiers in this tournament.
16:07
There's Canada and the US, and then draw the line, and then there's Sweden and Finland. Uh, Finland's, I, I've been pretty impressed with the way that they've played thus far.
16:15
I just don't know if I can get behind them in this contest. Would taking Sweden in any capacity be worth a flyer before the Canada and Finland game gets underway?
16:27
Or do you think you have to sit back a- and see, you know, maybe how much desperation Sweden's approaching this one with?
16:34
Well, even if the game is meaningless for the United States or, or for the outcome of the tournament, Sweden still wants to leave with a win. You know, they've lost both their games in overtime.
16:44
I highly doubt they wanna go O and three, [clears throat] excuse me, in this tournament. So Sweden will have desperation.
16:50
I, I don't see them playing tonight's game as some sort of all-star skills showcase, even if it is meaningless. So I do think there is value on Sweden tonight. Jake Oettinger is getting the start.
17:01
[clears throat] He hasn't played a game, you know, obviously in a little bit over a week or so, so he might not be as fresh, um, as Linus Ullmark might be on the other side for Sweden, if Ullmark is to get the start, which I do think he will be the starter.
17:13
Um, so there definitely is value on Sweden tonight, for sure. And again, this game means absolutely nothing for Team USA as far as the standings go.
17:21
Obviously they're gonna wanna put on a good performance for the home crowd, being back on home soil for the first time in this tournament in Boston.
17:27
Um, but I haven't seen the line yet for that game, so depending on what it is, which you can tell me, I'm sure, in a second, there definitely is value on Sweden in tonight's contest.
17:37
Yeah, if you wanna take Sweden plus one and a half, you gotta lay 55 cents, but if you wanna take 'em on the money line, it's about plus 160, plus 165.
17:45
Does that money line price intrigue you, or would you lay juice on the puck line? Mm, the money line is probably the better way to go. 'Cause if Sweden is gonna win,
17:56
I, I do think it, it, you know, it will be from the beginning, 'cause I think Sweden will come out a little bit hotter than the US will.
18:02
I don't see the US coming out in the first period and, you know, laying some dominance. Um, so I'd rather take the plus money in that sense.
18:09
Yeah, especially with the US, given how much emotion went into that contest against Canada over the weekend. Do you see that, do you see that potentially being a bit of a letdown spot for them?
18:18
I mean, I feel like it's really hard to, to get yourself as up for the occasion as they did over the weekend, right? Especially when they know the outcome won't change anything. Um- Right...
18:28
that said, these are still competitors at the end of the day. They're gonna, they're gonna compete.
18:32
I don't know if they're gonna fight off the opening draw, I don't know if they're gonna throw the body around, because, again, they do probably wanna save themselves a little bit for Thursday.
18:40
Uh, but like you said, Joe, I, it is hard to get up for a game like this when you know the outcome doesn't really matter. But that said, like, Jake Oettinger is a guy who has a lot to prove as well.
18:48
You know, he's wearing the United States jersey for the first time in the tournament, and obviously he wants to put on a good show.
18:52
Um, so i- it's, it's a tough game to read just because the outcome of this afternoon has so many implications on what tonight will mean.
19:00
Um, so as we sit here today, this morning, and try to handicap it, it does make it a little bit harder.
19:04
Uh, but, you know, anything can happen in these kinds of tournaments, and [laughs] I, I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens this afternoon.
19:11
So Johnny, I wanna get your take on some second half futures, uh, for the NHL season, but before we do, I gotta get your thoughts on what transpired between the US and Canada, and what you'd expect if we do ultimately get the rematch that I would say, uh, most people are waiting for.
19:26
I mean, it was probably the best period of hockey I've ever watched in my life. Being in the building for the game, the energy was unbelievable.
19:34
Um, the three fights off the draw, the Connor McDavid goal, best player in the world, best player arguably, you know, that we'll ever watch, scoring the goal the way he did.
19:43
The US responding with Charlie McAvoy then throwing a big hit on McDavid, which turned the whole game around, in my opinion, 'cause the United States scores about 30 seconds later on a big goal by Jake Denso.
19:54
Um, you know, the crowd was incredible the entire night. There were a lot of US representatives too, some USA chants after we scored.
20:01
Um, obviously the building went nuts after McDavid scored, and then as the game progressed, you know, it felt like a game seven energy, even though it wasn't even a do or die game.
20:08
Um, you know, I had spoken to people that were at game seven last year between Florida and Edmonton, and the lead-up felt the same.
20:14
I was outside the Bell Centre at 6:00 PM, and there was a long line to get into the building two hours before puck drop. The seats were packed for warm-up.
20:22
I mean, there is no atmosphere quite like USA versus Canada, especially on Canadian soil.
20:27
And I'm hoping that we get that rematch on American soil, because man, chanting USA, USA, USA in Boston on Thursday night against the Canadian team, I mean, that'd be, like, [laughs] the most chills I'd ever have, um, you know, in an NHL arena.
20:41
So, you know, that was, that was the one takeaway I had, for being in the building for the Canadian games was awesome. Like, the atmosphere was so great.
20:48
But, you know, obviously I'm an American born guy, so I didn't really have that, you know, feeling of chills going through my body or that sense of national pride that I'll have this week watching the Americans play in Boston.
20:59
It's gonna be a whole different animal for, for people like us. So, um, I'm really fired up for that. But yeah, the USA, Canada game on Saturday was just... You know, e- everyone was tuning in.
21:10
4.4 million viewers, you know, I think 5.2 was the max amount. Um, you know, the whole world's eyes were on that game, and that's just so important for, for the sport of hockey.
21:20
I think no matter what the outcome was or no matter what the outcome will be on Thursday night, the NHL and hockey is a big winner after this two weeks. I love it, and I hope we get the rematch later on this week.
21:31
Johnny, last question. Second half starts, what? Saturday? Yep. Do you have any futures in pocket for the remainder of the NHL season? Final 30 seconds here are yours.
21:41
Well, I gotta go with the home crowd pick and say New York Rangers to make the playoffs. Uh, they've had a bit of an iffy start.
21:45
Um, obviously they had a rocky two-month window, but they traded for JT Miller, who made a big play on Sidney Crosby on Saturday night, had to have the fight obviously.
21:54
I think he's gonna be an identity shifter and a, and a real big, positive impact in the Rangers locker room.
21:59
So I believe it's still at plus money, you can get the Rangers to make the playoffs, and that's what I would go with right now for the second half. Plus 145 still there at DraftKings.
22:07
Johnny, really appreciate the time, man. Thanks so much for hopping on. Thanks, Joe. Appreciate you. Talk soon. Make sure you follow our guy Johnny on Twitter at jlazzy23. Catch The Daily Faceoff.
22:19
Of course, he's the host of it. Always the best hockey insight in the game. Our friend and my, uh, my Syosset High School alum, Johnny Lazarus. More Numbers Game, hour two kicks off up next.
22:31
Wes Reynolds joining the show. Don't go anywhere. Joe Serallo, Kelly Bidlin taking you through your Monday morning. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
22:49
Just one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game, with Gil Alexander. Gone be sin. All right, time for a new hour of a Numbers Game, taking you through this Monday morning, February 17th.
23:04
He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serallo. We're keeping it moving, recapping a surprisingly busy weekend in sports, considering the NBA and NHL regular seasons are both on pause.
23:14
Had some All-Star festivities, the Four Nations face off, the Daytona 500, Genesis Invitational. Kelly made some money playing the golf this weekend.
23:23
So let's hit the progressive guest line here, and welcome in, I think, the sharpest golf handicapper who I know, V Zone Wes Reynolds joining us now. Wes, how was your weekend? How are you, man? I'm well, Joe.
23:36
Uh, thanks for having me. Uh, uh, not, not the best weekend. Small loser for me.
23:40
The guy that I was afraid of, and I mentioned it on our Long Shots podcast, the guy I was afraid of winning ends up winning, and that was Ludwig Aber who, uh, who gets the win at Torrey Pines yesterday in San Diego.
23:52
So, uh, kind of Kelly was aboard him. Congratulations, Kelly, getting on the board with an outright this year. But yeah, look, he, he just, he put himself in position on Sunday.
24:01
It was a very good tournament, very good leaderboard at the, at the top.
24:05
But Ludwig, it was kind of just a matter of time, uh, 'cause he was the first round leader actually a couple weeks ago when they had the normal in, uh, event at Torrey Pines, that being the, uh, of course, the Farmer's Insurance Open, and shot nine under on the north course in, in the first round, and then took ill.
24:23
So I should have picked up on that and went back on him, uh, a, a second time and did not. Congratulations to those that did, though. Yeah, always a bit of a brutal feeling, Wes.
24:33
I know I've been there before plenty of times when you got that top 20 bet or something on a guy and he goes out and wins the thing [laughs] when you didn't think he was gonna be, uh, in contention.
24:40
But, uh, you got three home already this year. Matt Brown and I needed one for the Long Shots crew, so we got there. We're all on the board now.
24:47
And, and I said at the beginning of the show, I'm just trying to be more like Wes. Again, if you're gonna win three in a row, you gotta start with one, right?
24:52
So I, you know, I'd say one started here, and then we go to the Mexico Open, and, uh, we'll see what that crappy field has, uh, has in store for us this week. Just a couple takeaways from this tournament, Wes.
25:02
Scottie Scheffler, I, I- how do you handle him going forward? I really don't know if I have an answer for that. His [laughs]...
25:08
That when the game is good right now, it looks great, but then it looks like there's still some stuff he's working on. Any, any big takeaways from Scheffler?
25:15
Look, he's still playing very good golf, but I think, uh, and we, and we've hit on it in previous, uh, episodes of Long Shots, it's like, okay, the guy's still gonna be a regular winner, but we're talking about the most dominant ball striking season all, ever arguably on the PGA tour that he put up last year, and that's just so hard to do over time, especially when you get time off at the end of the season, when you have an injury like he had, where he had to have surgery on his hand.
25:41
So he's still playing very good golf and he's still always, always in the mix. Uh, uh, really had to scramble though.
25:47
I, I don't think really hit the ball great, uh, really all week and, you know, had to make up strokes around the green, had to make up strokes scrambling.
25:54
Still finished tied for third somehow and shot six under on Sunday. So, so he went very low, but he's still, I think, like right there, but maybe not gonna dominate as much as he did last year.
26:05
So maybe the lack of domination is like three or four wins instead of winning like eight times. Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair to say. I'm one...
26:12
I, you know, just catching some of the interviews with him over the past couple weeks, he still keeps himself up to, up to such a high standard.
26:19
I think him mentioning how good I caught on Thur- Thursday, him talking about how good a shape he thought he had gotten himself in in the off season, and then, you know, got the setback with the hand injury.
26:28
So I'm, I agree with you. I think what we saw from last year is gonna be tough for him to, any- tough for anybody to repeat.
26:35
But man, I think it's a little scary the idea that this guy's still get- getting better this season with, with some of the rounds we've seen him put together the past couple weeks that have looked really good.
26:43
Um, any other big takeaways from the tournament for you? I'm, I'm gonna bring up Mexico Open here real quick next. But, um, you know, Maverick McNealy, I know you've been on him a couple times this year.
26:52
He's popped a couple ti- a, a couple times on the leaderboard this season. Tommy Fleetwood with a good s- uh, finish.
26:58
Uh, Finau and Cantlay, I know you were on Finau, to see them getting the top, top five, that was big for them. Akshay Bhatia's my one man. I, I, I'm beginning to track mo- almost every week it feels like here.
27:09
He's, I think he's getting due for a big, uh, big season. Any, any other big takeaways for you from the tournament? Well, I'll go with Mav, and I, I think, uh, winning begets winning.
27:18
I don't care if you're a professional golfer or if you're a sports bettor. When you win, you all of a sudden have a little bit more confidence, and he won the season finale at the RSM, uh, last season back in November.
27:29
So I just think he looks like a different player than, than he did a year ago when it's like, okay, this is where he's gonna start to win, and he kept coming up short, coming up short.
27:38
So now he feels like a confident player, and yet you mentioned a couple of those names, Kelly. Uh, there's a few guys out there that have not won in a minute, uh, out there on the PGA tour.
27:49
Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa. You wonder when these guys are gonna get back in the winner's circle again because players of that caliber, it usually isn't over a year when they win. Yeah.
28:00
These are guys that usually you would think are gonna win at least one time a year somewhere, some way on the PGA tour, and they just have not done that. So they keep chasing it.
28:09
But, uh, uh, not a lot gonna chase it in the Mexico Open this week.
28:13
Uh, kind of a little bit of a downfield in that buffer event between the West Coast Swing and then the Florida Swing that we start at the end of the month.
28:20
So, you know, bombers course, 7,500 yards, so you're gonna get, wanna get guys with driving distance, wanna get guys that hit the irons well from 200 yards or more.
28:29
I'm gonna be, uh, starting that write-up later this afternoon. So low scoring event, I think, in order down there at, uh, at, uh, Vidanta Vallarta this week.
28:38
Yeah, reminder, always go over to vsan.com for all Wes' write-ups, weekly write-ups on all the PGA Tour tournaments, uh, and get all of our bets there as well. Yeah, Akshay Bhatia, 14 to 1.
28:47
He is the short shot to win this week, uh, in Mexico. Rasmus Højgaard, 20 to 1. Sam Stevens, Patrick Rodgers, Kurt Kitayama, 22 to 1. Everybody else, 25 to 1 or longer.
28:57
You ju- you just kind of hit on it a little bit there, Wes, the type of player you're looking at.
29:01
Uh, a- any of those guys that, that I just mentioned or anybody down the board that jumped out to you right away when you pulled up the odds?
29:07
Well, I was hoping for a little better price on Patrick Rodgers, but unfortunately he was in contention- Yeah...
29:12
this weekend because Rodgers, by the way, three top 10s, uh, every single year they played this event at this course, so he makes certain, uh, logical sense. Lost two and a half strokes on approach.
29:22
Just got to that back nine and went two over, and, uh, that took him out of contention because he would've been right there with, uh, the big Swede.
29:31
Hey, Wes, I wanna, uh, shift gears a bit here and take things over to college hoops. Not the most action-packed Monday night slate. I think there's some good mid-major spots here.
29:39
But the big game, the headliner, Arizona, the 13th ranked Wildcats at Baylor. I know this is the system play for a lot of people, take the unranked home favorite against the ranked road opponent.
29:51
I like Arizona in a bounce-back spot here coming off two straight losses. What do you think about this game? Yeah, uh, we'll see how Arizona comes off that loss, uh, on Saturday, where they really...
30:03
I, I, I was impressed with what Arizona did in terms of meeting Houston's toughness and meeting their physicality. Houston- Yeah...
30:10
ends up getting the win as a small favorite, uh, on, on the money line, and that's just a team that executes late. And in, in a grinder close game, more often than not, Houston's gonna come out on top.
30:20
So can Arizona rebound from that and, and now having to go on the road against Baylor?
30:25
I think Baylor, I don't wanna call them safe for the NCAA tournament, but I think that they're in good shape, but you need to get more quad one wins, and, and this Baylor team has had some injuries.
30:36
They've been short-handed, haven't, haven't really been all that deep off the bench, but, you know, 16-9 with some very good wins. They got a nice win on Saturday, held on in overtime over West Virginia. So w- you know,
30:49
I think the number is about right. Baylor should be a small favorite. That's not an easy place to win down there in that new arena in, uh, in Waco.
30:57
So not sure what I'm doing with, with, with this one as of yet, uh, uh, with Baylor as one and a half point favorites. Uh, total has been on the move, though.
31:06
It was 150, I think, uh, was the consensus opener, 150.5, and now up to 153.5.
31:13
So Baylor's defense hasn't been as good as it, as it normally is, because they've been a little bit short-handed and gotta keep guys out of foul trouble. So I don't disagree necessarily with that move.
31:24
Yeah, Baylor's three-point defense, or lack thereof, really what stood out to me when I was capping this one last night. How about Duke-Virginia? Duke's laying 13.5 at Charlottesville in this one.
31:35
I, I mean, look, normally under a Tony Bennett squad, you'd say that's too many points the way that they control the pace of play.
31:41
But with the Virginia team we've seen this year, do you think Duke might run them out the gym, or do you think the Cavs keep it close?
31:46
Yeah, look, it, it, it's, it seems like a bi- a big number, uh, to lay in this series- [laughs]... doesn't it? But Virginia has been way down this year.
31:54
They just don't have the talent that they've had in, in previous years. Uh, Duke just scored 100 on Saturday, 106 against Stanford. So
32:02
uh, lean would be Virginia just on, on the principle of, uh, reducing the tempo a little bit, but I make it actually right at the number at, at 14.
32:12
Uh, Duke clearly I think the runaway best team right now in the ACC, and that league is just down. I don't even know how many teams, uh, that, that conference gonna get in the tournament.
32:21
Maybe as low as three, probably four, but this is not- Wow... the old school ACC. I think this has been a very down year for that league. Yeah, it absolutely has. What about Clemson though?
32:33
Because this is a team, and we talked about Clemson with John Henson, former UNC star last week, Wes, and he was on the call for Clemson-Florida State. I laid the 3.5 with Clemson. They win the game by damn near 30.
32:45
Do you think that's a team that I'm seeing 80 to 1 at MGM, I mean, it was 100 to 1, it might have been 150 to 1 a week ago.
32:52
Do you think that's a team that might be worth a flyer as a long shot could make some noise come March? Could be.
32:57
Uh, I, I mean everything like we always say, and we're gonna say that a lot over the next few weeks, is draw dependent. And- Right... you know, certainly Clemson is not limited to that.
33:06
But they've got four senior starters. They've been able to get guys in the portal. They've had a little bit more NIL resources, uh, there for, uh, Brad Brownell.
33:14
So usually Brad Brownell, they're kind of like sweat and making the NCAA tournament, 'cause you're in that conference with Duke and North Carolina and, and, you know, really up against it with those schools.
33:24
But Clemson's been good this year. Uh, last Monday night they were in a terrible spot against North Carolina coming off that win over Duke, and they just blow out the heels.
33:32
They did the same thing to Florida State on, uh, Saturday.
33:36
Now you got a week off where you gotta go to SMU, who really disappointed this weekend against a Wake Forest team that was coming in off blowing the game against Florida State. But yeah, I think this Clemson team...
33:46
Look, uh, Brad Brownell runs really good stuff. He's a really good X's and O's guys. They shoot the three well, veteran group. They absolutely could make a run. Wes, really appreciate the time, man.
33:56
If you could do it in 15 seconds or less, is there a mid-major play that sticks out to you on tonight's card? Oh. [laughs] I'm looking at a bunch of- Not yet? Okay. Good.
34:06
I guess not A bunch of SWAC and a bunch of MEAC games. So, uh- Bunch of Southland- I guess the, uh- Hey, I've got two plays in the Southland, man. You know, you gotta, gotta deal with what you've got, right?
34:14
[laughs] Yeah, I'll be, I'll be looking into that and seeing, uh, what we can find, and if we don't, then we wait till a big Tuesday night card. I love it. VSiN Zone, Wes Reynolds, appreciate the time as always, man.
34:26
More Numbers Game up next with Kelly Bedell and myself, Joe Serallo, here on VSiN V, Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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