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Feb 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 19, 2025
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] All right. Welcome into a Numbers Game.
0:12
He's Kelly Fedlin. I'm Joe Serralles, fill in for Gil Alexander on a well-deserved vacation. Kelly, at this point, is it still a vacation or has Gil relocated?
0:21
I mean, has anyone heard from Gil in the last week and a half? That's a good point. I have talked to him a couple times. I mean, he's bouncing around.
0:26
He's doing his usual couple weeks after the Super Bow- w- Super Bowl where he's all over the place a bit. So I can't actually answer the question of what city is he currently in.
0:33
He, he could be off the grid in Costa Rica for all we know right now. He really could, yes. He really could.
0:37
He could be living his best life, just sipping his morning coffee, monkeys swinging tree to tree in the background behind him. Well, he does his annual Miami Beach. So, like, he hits Miami for a- Oh, of course...
0:46
but I think that's been done already. Yeah, I got questions. Is he a, is he an, a Club 11 guy or a Club Space guy, would you- That's a great question. We'll have to ask him that when he gets back.
0:54
I mean, Space- 'Cause he looks like a Club Space guy to me... I, I could see him doing an all-nighter at Space just for the, the mimosas and the brunch if you make it to sunrise. I don't even... I...
1:04
Joe, you've derailed us already. [laughs] I, I, I lost s- I, I think I've been to Club Space twice. I lost someone in there once. It was one of the worst nights of my life. Oh, no. Like, it just, like, just couldn't...
1:13
We could not find each other. We d- th- th- The person you lost, did you show up with her or did you meet her there? I had showed up with her, yes. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then you lost her. And then I lost her.
1:21
Sounds like prom night. [laughs] It was a prob- it was a problem, bro. It was a problem. [laughs] It was a bully problem. You know what was a problem last night?
1:27
Here, here, this is the segue 'cause it's a sports show technically, even though there's no sports this week. UConn's first half was a big problem last night.
1:34
The Huskies taking on Villanova, they end up getting there in the second half, outscoring them 40 to 25 in the final 20 minutes of work. No cover for UConn. A lot of people were on the Huskies minus eight, minus nine.
1:47
They, uh... W- what's up with Dan Hurley's team, man? I, I mean, this is a team that, I, I think Will Hill, who actually came out and gave out UConn yesterday on the program, had, uh, the funniest tweet I saw.
1:58
He goes, "U- UConn can still get the three-peat if they win the NIT."
2:02
[laughs] Because this, this is a team that, I mean, they're gonna get in the tournament based on reputation and whatnot, back-to-back champs obviously. They don't look like a tournament team. Yeah, yeah.
2:11
This was a struggle. This was... I mean, we were sitting on the show yesterday and watching this number kind of fly up, taking a lot of bets, UConn was.
2:18
Uh, comes back down, closes eight and a half, and yeah, can't get there again, man. Just a, a really disappointing showing from this team. Lot of big college hoops action. It was a, it was a jam-packed Tuesday slate.
2:28
Only one play on my end didn't get there with Texas A&M. First half looked good. They were controlling the tempo. Uh, the Aggies were setting the pace really well, up 31-30 at the, uh, at the break.
2:41
And then second half just completely got away from this Buzz Williams team. And, you know, this A&M team i- it's a team that it needs to shut you down on defense. Their offense is not really gonna compete.
2:52
I believe for KPOM ratings, they're just 40th in offensive efficiency, so not terrible, but certainly not in the top tier, not in the upper echelon.
3:02
And that second half, they got outscored 40 to 23 in Starkville by Mississippi State. It was the Hubbard show. He finishes with 25 for the Bulldogs. The Aggies lose by 16. That was the lone play of the day for me.
3:16
But other SEC action, the Florida Gators. I feel like, you know, everyone's talking about Auburn and Alabama. The Gators are quietly ranked second. They jumped Duke. They jumped 'Bama.
3:26
And Kelly, they're sitting there 23 and three straight up. Maybe more impressively, 18 and seven against the number. Yeah, this is, uh...
3:35
I- if this team becomes really real, Joe, this is gonna be a really long March and April for me based off of friends and family- [laughs]... that went to this school.
3:43
Yeah, it's, uh, uh, Gators, uh, having success is never fun for me. Never fun. But you, they are, like you're saying, every time I turn them on, they look damn impressive, and they looked like that again last night.
3:52
Is everyone who went to that school just obnoxious or is it just me? Uh, n- no, they all are. I, I, you know, I, I will go unbiased. Everybody who went to Florida, Florida State, and Miami are all obnoxious. Okay.
4:03
I'm not g- I'm not gonna say Florida State should- I, I feel like the Miami crowd is fun, but I don't know. Maybe it's because they're pretentious, I'm a little pretentious, so- Yeah. Yeah, it could be...
4:09
may- maybe we just gel in that way. I mean- Yeah, that makes sense. That totally checks out. Yeah... Florida State, I actually went to high school with a kid who went to Florida State, and now he's a doctor.
4:15
I don't know. I would, personally, if I saw my doctor went to Florida State- [laughs]... I'd probably be like, "I'm gonna find a new doctor." [laughs] Yeah, might be a good call.
4:22
[laughs] Keeping it moving in the college hoops world. Uh, Houston gets there with the cover at Arizona State. Big first half from the Cougars.
4:32
You know, this is a squad under Kelvin Sampson that we all know every year Houston's gonna defend. Mm-hmm. And, and they're gonna be a, a top five if not the number one defense in the country. This team,
4:43
two things about them. They're not prone to letdown spots like they typically have been in recent years. I mean, you look at them in conference play, they're 14 and one straight up in the Big 12.
4:53
This was a conference where they were gonna have to compete with Iowa State, who still has nothing to scoff at. I mean, they, you know, they're the eighth ranked team in the country.
4:59
They had a big win over Colorado last night. But Houston, uh, has had no issue running through the Big 12. Iowa State can't keep up with them. As, as good as they are, they're certainly a tier beneath them.
5:11
Kansas, we'll get to them in a minute. They're an absolute bleep show over there in Lawrence, just a total disgrace the Jayhawks are. This Houston team, you know, I, I, I've drank the Kool-Aid on them in the past.
5:22
I've picked them in March Madness to win it all in the past, and they've let me down at one point or another. This could be the team that does it, because they shoot better than any Kelvin Sampson team I've seen.
5:33
And like I said, they're not prone to that letdown spot. Yeah, so, so the top of the futures board would tell us there's a few different tiers, right?
5:39
You've got Auburn and Duke up by themselves in kinda tier one, and then it's Florida, Houston, and Bama that are kinda all right near each other.
5:46
You think those three teams, uh, belong kinda that second tier and are the next b- biggest threats for those t- uh, two at the top? I mean, absolutely.
5:53
And I'd actually have had Bama in tier one up until Saturday, and then Auburn went to, uh, went to Tuscaloosa and handled them pretty well in a game Bama was favored in. Mm.
6:01
So prior to that game on Saturday, I'd have been leaning Bama tier one. Uh, I, I still think they can get there. I mean, who's to say, you know, they meet up in the, in the SEC tournament championship game- Yeah...
6:11
or whatever. Who's to say Bama can't get there? What I love about this Alabama team, and we'll have more on them shortly because, uh, they're one of my four best bets tonight.
6:20
Lot of college hoops action this evening for me. Not only are they the number one scoring offense in the country, Kelly. Now, they're not the most efficient team. They, they rely heavily on volume.
6:29
But for a team that relies heavily on volume, it's important to crash the boards, right? Because if you're- Yeah... not making a, a large percentage or a large chunk of your shots- Gotta clean 'em up...
6:37
gotta clean 'em up, get your second chance opportunities. Bama does that just about as well as anyone. Number two nationally in points per game. Number one in boards per game.
6:47
So that's a, that's a pretty lethal combo- Yeah... I would say, for a team come March. A- and I believe, you know, we've got the, the KenPom criteria of teams that are... I don't have it off the top of my head.
6:57
I know someone was actually tweeting it at the show, and, uh, I think you have the tweet right in front of you, if I'm not mistaken, where you have to be top 20 in offense, top 20 in defense.
7:05
There's a certain criteria for strength of schedule and whatnot. Yeah. I believe Alabama, although no, maybe on defense they wouldn't fit that. Is, is that a red, uh, is there red next to Bama?
7:14
They, uh, the, the, the red would be with the head coach with Sweet 16 experience. That's usually where they, uh, include that stuff. But Bama's got that. Nate- Oh, I'm sorry, I'm reading the wrong, wrong line.
7:23
It is the defense, yes. Oh, it's the d- okay- I was reading Florida... 'cause I was, I was gonna say- It was reading Florida... Bama got their Sweet 16 experience last year. Yeah, I was reading Florida.
7:28
Florida doesn't have that. Okay. How many schools, I'm curious if y- I don't know if you could tally it up. What are we at, six schools that fit all the criteria?
7:35
I think the craziest one, as you go far down the line, was Maryland might fit all of the crit- uh, the criteria. That's interesting. We brought that up last week. Yeah.
7:42
Remember we were talking about Dindzik betting that, uh, uh, uh, last week. So yeah, that was interesting.
7:46
Yeah, right, and I think they went to Nebraska and I think, uh, Dindzik said he would, he would lay, or they were... Were they laying a point and a half?
7:51
I think they were catching a point and a half, and they won the game outright in, uh, in Lincoln. But I think Maryland is probably the, the school on that list that ranks, um, the lowest, but fits all the criteria.
8:02
There's one school on that list, man, it fits all but one criteria, and- There's a lot of those, yeah... yeah. Well, there's, there's a lot, but there's one that I think I'm gonna bet today right after the show.
8:12
And, uh, Circa, last I saw, has the best price on this team at 125 to one. So I, I might have to get in on, uh, on the Clemson Tigers. What, what's the one criteria they lack? Is it, uh, defense?
8:26
This would be, yeah- 27th?... de- yeah, defense for them, yeah. Right. But all right, so, so the criteria, you gotta be top 20. Think about it. They're 27th. They got a few games left.
8:34
They could work their way into the top 20 and then boom, they fit all the criteria after that, right? Mm-hmm. They've got a lot of returning players.
8:39
They've got the, uh, the power forward, the white kid who's been there who's instrumental in their last NCAA run to the Elite Eight. Uh, I think this Clemson team's frisky. 125... Now, this is why you gotta shop around.
8:51
I think I saw DraftKings was 60 to one on Clemson, and then right behind us at Circa here, 125 to one. Yeah. So you always gotta shop around because, uh, I mean, you're talking, that, that's not just a minor difference.
9:03
That is a, a ridiculous difference. Yeah, it really is. I think now you could find those two when it gets to longer odds, so like you said, yeah, make sure you're shopping around.
9:11
And, uh, I know when Gil gets back he'll be, uh, big dig- uh, big, uh, looking forward to getting into the college, uh, basketball formulas and everything like that for, uh, the tournament.
9:20
Yeah, you know, I, I mean, I will say with college hoops there, there aren't too many formulas and whatnot that I pay attention to. That system- Yeah... is a big one. Yep. That, th- those criteria, that's massive.
9:29
Uh, Big Ten action, Michigan State got there. I'm glad I stayed away from this one. I was intrigued by Purdue catching as many as four.
9:35
And, uh, Sparty got there, laying three and a half, laying four, depending where you shop. 75-66. Just really controlled the pace there.
9:43
Uh, didn't let the Boilermakers get much going, uh, at all on the offensive side of things. 13th ranked Purdue, 14th ranked Michigan State. Battle of a couple teams atop the Big Ten.
9:53
You know, I don't know how to figure this Big Ten too much. Wisconsin, 11th ranked team in the nation, they blew Illinois out.
10:00
I mean, this is an Illinois team, one night looks like they can hang with anyone, the next night, uh, they look absolutely lost in space. They lose by 21 in Madison.
10:09
I don't think there's a team in the Big Ten that I look at and I say, "Come March, they scare me." I, I, I could see the Big Ten almost being y- you know, out of it by the Sweet 16, maybe one team in the Sweet 16.
10:19
Hmm, that's interesting. Yeah, th- th- these conference odds are pretty tight too, right?
10:23
Michigan minus 135, Michigan State plus 210, Wisconsin seven to one, Maryland 14 to one to win the, uh, uh, regular season conference. Yeah. Yeah, I wonder if Michigan State might be, uh, might be worth a play there.
10:35
I, I gotta make sure, I gotta check to see if they have Michigan left on the schedule, because I think the Wolverines got the best of them their last time out head-to-head.
10:42
You know, now there's so many teams in every conference that, uh, you don't know who's playing who twice, you don't know when- [laughs] Quite a point... when they're playing next.
10:48
But if you look at the standings there, Michigan 12 and two, Michigan State 12 and three, but I, again, I think they lose the, the tiebreaker there. I don't know, though.
10:57
Getting Izzo at longer than two to one, they closed the... Yep, just as I thought. They closed the year with Michigan. Oh, no, they haven't played Michigan- They haven't them once... yet at all.
11:03
Yeah, they haven't them twice. Yeah. Wow. They got a little bit of a rough go. At Maryland, home against Wisconsin. Yeah, it's pretty tough. So definitely a tougher schedule. Yeah.
11:10
That, that, that explains the two to one odds. Folks, we've got a great guest list coming at you for the remainder of the show.
11:18
More college hoops with our friend Jim Root in just about 20 minutes over at the three-man weave, of course. Hour two, gonna talk NBA with VSiN's own JBT.
11:28
Of course, Michael Montesano gonna break down some NBA awards with us, as well as college basketball futures on top of that. It's a hoops heavy show. God knows it's all we got going on this week, really.
11:39
It's a numbers game. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serallo. Stay locked in to VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
Numbers game continues here on VSiN alongside Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo. Hot and heavy, college hoops slate coming in on a Wednesday night. Lot of action.
12:12
Just gave out my two Missouri Valley Conference plays, Illinois Chicago catching 10 and a hook at Drake and Bradley laying a point at Illinois State.
12:21
I've got two more best bets that we're gonna get to throughout the show, but for now, let's take it to the progressive guest line and get some best bets from our friend over at Three Man Weave, Jim Root, as he joins the show.
12:32
Jim, how are you, man? I'm good. Excited to be talking college hoops. You know, less than four weeks away from Selection Sunday, Super Bowl over.
12:40
I- it's good to have everybody diving into the deep end of, of college basketball with me. Yeah, you're diving in really deep. Let's start with, uh, one of your plays. What is this?
12:48
Over in the Horizon League, I believe the, uh, the former IUPUI, right now IU Indy, taking on Dickie V's old Detroit team. What do you like in this game? Yeah, I saw you go Missouri Valley. I got intimidated.
13:01
[laughs] I felt like I had to dig even deeper and get a little bit lower for the people out there. Uh, I'm taking the- Wait till we get to the Summit League, folks. [laughs] Yeah, exactly.
13:08
Uh, I'm taking the road team here, IU Indy, a team that has been awful the last three seasons. But this year they've kind of had a, a mini rejuvenation. They're basically a team...
13:19
Uh, people that are familiar with Drake, where they hired a D2 coach and he brought a bunch of starters with, that's exactly what IU Indy did. They hired the coach of the University of Indianapolis.
13:27
He came with, uh, with, with a couple players, and they started to trend up. A- and Detroit has been a little bit of a mess with injuries. They're missing one, uh, starting guard in the backcourt. It...
13:38
Basically a different lineup every single game out there for Detroit. And IU Indy's got a lot more consistency, uh, some continuity from last year given that, uh, they brought so many guys with from D2.
13:47
So I'll take them as a, uh, a road dog or pick 'em, I think it's gotten to at Circa. I think people are moving this line the right way. I, I, I like, uh, IU Indy there. Jim, always great to see you.
13:58
I'm sure, uh, you're getting about a million phone calls, uh, these days now that the Super Bowl's over. Like, "Hey, you wanna come on and do this, do this, do that?" Always good stuff. Oh, yeah.
14:06
All right, I'm gonna go to the easier conference. We'll go to Big East. Uh, St. John's on the road at DePaul. St. John's laying 12 and a half, 142 and a half in this game. Where are you looking?
14:15
Yeah, I'm gonna lay the 12 and a half. I did think about going with the under because I, I, I think DePaul's just really struggling to score lately without Connor Enright. Their kind of disturber point guard.
14:25
He gets in the lane. He's just kind of a, a, a little menace and he's out for the season. But DePaul is also missing their big guy, NJ Benson. He's kind of the rebounder, shot blocker, enforcer in the paint.
14:37
You take both those guys away and that pushed me over to St. John's to lay the points. It's not a good spot for St. John's for people that are really into that.
14:45
You know, you're, you're, uh, sandwiched between going against Creighton for the top of the Big East and hosting UConn on Sunday in the rematch at Madison Square Garden. So that's not awesome. But I do think St.
14:57
John's is a little bit more immune to spots because of how they play. Uh, i- it's a very shot volume related style where they beat you on, uh, they get the offensive glass, they dominate the turnover battle.
15:09
It's a little like Houston last night. Hey, they beat Arizona and they still went down and controlled everything against Arizona State. I think St.
15:16
John's can do that here in Chicago about, you know, a mile and a half away from me in, in the South Loop. I, I think St. John's will take care of business there against a very, very short-handed DePaul team.
15:26
Yeah, I think they're immune to spots too because of the guy running the show over there. Jim, did you see the, uh, the clips on social media of Rick Pitino in that Vice special that they're running on St. John's?
15:36
What are your thoughts on the job Pitino's done there now in year two and what this team's ceiling might be as we start, you know, peeking at obviously the championship market and some Final Four markets as well come March?
15:48
Yeah, uh, Pitino's a wizard. You just look at every, every record that he's breaking or tying. You know, it's the longest Big East win streak they've had since the year they went to the Final Four in the '90s.
15:58
He, he's just been completely remarkable, d- reasserting himself as one of the best coaches in the sport. That, that halftime speech was interesting.
16:05
I like kind of calling out the guys and it, it tells you the relationship that he has with them where he, he, he can kind of go at 'em like that and it's, it's a rallying cry, not a belittling type of thing.
16:16
They take it positively and come out in the second half and, and start to look awesome.
16:20
I, I did like his son, Richard Pitino's tweet in response to it saying he, uh, he had nightmares of the day he forgot to make his bed based on- [laughs]... uh, Rick's, based on Rick's, uh, you know, rant at that point.
16:31
But- I love it... yeah, Rick, Rick Pitino is as, as good as you get in the college game. And the ceiling for, for St. John's, uh, I don't think they can win a national title.
16:40
I'm sorry to, to the New York fans that are probably rallying around the team but- Okay... uh, it, there's just a little offensive potency that's missing.
16:48
But I think they can go to a Final Four just the way they, they dominate the glass and, and the turnover battle, like I said, and their defense is so, so strong.
16:55
Uh, I just worry once they get on that big national stage that a, a really, really good opponent i- is gonna be able to outplay them.
17:01
Yeah, I think I saw, and I don't have this number right in front of me so I want to try to be as accurate as possible.
17:06
But I believe the last two teams to make the Final Four shooting 33% or less from beyond the arc were Pitino's Louisville teams in 2012 and 2013. This St. John's team shooting just 29% from deep. Look, I grew up a St.
17:21
John's fan. Yikes. I'm just enjoying the success, uh, you know, while we have it in front of us, man, because I've never seen anything like this out of St. John's in my lifetime.
17:30
All right, let, let's get weird with it again. We were talking about some mid-major action. South Dakota, this Coyotes team is one that I had a best bet on last week against Missouri, Kansas City.
17:39
It shouldn't have been a sweat, became a sweat. They can score with anyone but they don't play a whole lot of defense. They're hosting St. Thomas and they're three and a half point dogs against St. Thomas.
17:49
What's your play here? It's not a whole lot of defense indeed. Uh, for a while they were like an automatic over team this year. Yeah.
17:55
And, and you wanna talk about automatic over, the first game between these two was in regulation 119 to 104. [laughs] Oof. Uh, there, there was zero defense played. Uh, St.
18:04
Thomas won that one at home, controlling it by 15 basically the whole way. So I am intrigued by the over But I'm gonna go with the, the road favorite here, St. Thomas.
18:13
They are coming off a big win to assert themselves atop the Summit standings. It, it's a little like the St. John's spot, uh, but I, I still trust them. I think they're the better team, the better coached team.
18:24
They're better on both ends and, and I think they're gonna score at will, just like they did in the first match-up against South Dakota.
18:30
Uh, I, I think they're at 1.55 points per possession, for all the analytical nerds out there. It was crazy. Every time down, they were able to get a bucket. I, I think that happens again here.
18:40
I'll lay the three and a half on the road. This one is a little anti-market. I think it was four earlier and, and has come down now a half point. But, uh, I'll take it.
18:48
I'll take the extra half point 'cause I can win on four now. So I'll take the Tommies on the road there at South Dakota. I love it. The Johnnies, the Tommies, uh- That's right [laughs]... just betting on all... Yeah.
18:57
Soon we'll, we'll work the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, my alma mater, into the conversation.
19:01
Uh, Jim, I can tell by the flag behind you that you are obviously a, a big Crimson Tide fan, and they're taking on- Oh, how dare you [laughs] [laughs] We've got Alabama/Missouri this evening.
19:13
And the 15th ranked Mizzou Tigers are now laying, I believe this one opened with Bama minus one, one and a half. Missouri now laying a point and a half in Columbia. Bama coming off a loss.
19:25
They're 3 and 0 against the number after a loss this year. This will be their fourth such opportunity.
19:32
Uh, as objectively, or, I mean, frankly, as subjectively as you'd like to be, just have fun with it, what, what's your, uh, breakdown of this game? Man, yeah. It, it is an interesting...
19:41
Like, is Bama gonna be let down a little by the home rivalry loss, or is it gonna be kind of the rallying cry with now they go on the road? I, I will say I've struggled a little to nail down my alma mater here, Missouri.
19:52
I, I haven't always gotten them right this year. But I did think they would control that game at Georgia and, and they, they impressively did.
19:59
Since SEC play started, th- they're playing, like, a top 10 team in the country if you filter Bart Torvik for January 1st. Missouri has been the slightly better team here, so I'm not stunned to see them as a favorite.
20:11
But man, I think it's gonna be a tough one. The, the amount of scoring that Alabama brings to the table, it, it's gonna be a back and forth battle. No surprise that the total is way up there approaching 170.
20:23
That might be the most appealing part of it for me. I'm, I'm having a tough time figuring out the side. But I think it makes a lot of sense that this is gonna be a seesaw back and forth battle.
20:30
We just saw Alabama be ice cold from beyond the arc against Auburn.
20:35
Wouldn't be surprised to see more of those shots go in and, and I think Missouri can still attack some mismatches on defense with Alabama, who've got a couple weaker defenders on the floor. So I'm liking points there.
20:46
I, I'm unwilling to commit to a side, but of course you know who I'm rooting for. Yeah, that's, uh, that's no secret with the, the black and gold behind you.
20:53
[laughs] How about, uh, as we wrap it up here, one of your alma mater's biggest rivals taking on Alabama's biggest rival? Arkansas, Auburn. The Auburn Tigers laying, like, 16 and a hook in this one.
21:05
I mean, two long time decorated SEC coaches, Coach Cal taking on Bruce Pearl. Do you think 16 and a half points going up against Calipari and the Razorbacks is too many? I do.
21:15
I, I was kind of surprised this didn't get bet down a little bit more by the spot betters looking at Auburn coming off that incredible road performance, now back home. Uh, this is a scary place to back a road team.
21:26
The Jungle has been a house of horrors for basically the entire SEC, except Florida, who went in there and had a outstanding performance.
21:34
But just the way Arkansas has been playing since Boogie Flann went out, it seems like roles have actually made a little bit more sense. Nelly Davis, the FAU transfer, has kind of asserted himself as the star.
21:45
Adou Thiero's been a tough guy to stop at that four spot. Maybe Auburn struggles with his athleticism. I, I just think it's too many points given the spot, given the way that Arkansas is playing.
21:55
I, I think they can hang around there, which, again, scary in, in The Jungle, but I, I, I like the Razorbacks there. Jim, absolutely fantastic stuff, man. I really appreciate the time. Thanks for hopping on. Of course.
22:06
Thanks for having me. Appreciate it, guys. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Second Chance Points. Our friend Jim Root from over at the Three Man Weave.
22:14
Kelly, do you think he's, uh, he's gonna refuse to ever come on again after I made that Alabama quip? He better not, or else you're gonna screw up my whole, uh, next few months. That's for sure.
22:21
But, uh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That, that's what I try to do, man. I, you know, I- [laughs] I got two weeks on the show. I'm like, "How many things can I mess up in two weeks?" Yeah.
22:27
How can I burn this whole thing down to the ground? [laughs] Uh, yeah, you better be careful with that Bama bet today. You work with a lot of Mizzou grads. There's a lot on the show. I do.
22:36
My landlord might kick me out with having Bama as one of my best bets. There you go. We'll dive into why I love the Crimson Tide up next. It's a Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Seralla.
22:45
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander. You're going VSiN. Hour two of a Numbers Game.
23:02
Taking you through this Wednesday morning, February 19th, alongside Kelly Bedlam.
23:07
I'm Joe Seralla, and I'm excited to take things back over to our progressive guest line here as we welcome in VSiN's own, you catch him daily, almost daily, JVT, on VSiN Prime Time.
23:18
I, I could never keep up with the schedule with the, the little three-man rotation you, uh, you, Tim, and Matt have going on there. But man, welcome to the show. Appreciate you hopping on. The little three-man rotation.
23:28
Appreciate that. Uh, yes, I am on pretty much daily. Don't tell Tim I said that. [laughs] Uh, the only day I'm not on is Thursday. Correct. Okay. So, so a, a staple in your VSiN Prime Time viewing.
23:39
Uh, JVT, lot of college hoops action tonight. Obviously, the NBA second half does tip off. Uh, well, we'll call it the, uh, the diet tip-off, the tip-off light with one game.
23:48
And then really gets, uh, jam-packed, that NBA slate tomorrow.
23:52
Starting in college though, the SEC game I feel like everyone's talking about is Alabama/Missouri, rightfully so, but there's a lot of other action in that conference going on tonight. Which game do you have circled?
24:03
Yeah, I think Kentucky and Vandy's obviously pretty fascinating here. Uh, we're looking at only about four and a half in favor of Kentucky. We know that Lamont Butler is still hurt.
24:10
We know that Jaxson Robinson is still hurt. Both are not gonna play here in this game. Um- But yeah, I, I feel like we're getting kind of cheap here on Kentucky, especially when you're talking about four and a half, Joe.
24:20
Like, um, I don't think it's a surprise that Kentucky is injured. We knew that this was going to happen coming into this game.
24:26
But markets come down from five and a half, six in some spots, as low as four and a half, as I mentioned. It's really painted across the board. I know DK's, uh, starting to dip as well.
24:34
Uh, I, I think that this is one where maybe you sit back and, and see how cheap this gets.
24:38
But if this gets a little bit lower, look, even with the two injuries, I would say Kentucky still rates as a better team than Vanderbilt.
24:45
And the number right now would tell you maybe there's a point difference depending on what you rate home court here for, uh, Rupp Arena at this point right now.
24:51
So I'm gonna be monitoring this to see if this gets a little bit lower. But Kentucky, even with the injuries, I think should definitely be on the viewpoint here. We know what Vandy is. We've seen them at home.
25:01
They have had some pretty good moments. But again, from a ratings standpoint, this really sticks out to me that this is getting cheap with Kentucky, even with the injuries.
25:08
So I will be, uh, monitoring to see if this gets to that four, three and a half mark. And if we get to three and a half, I'll be on Kentucky. John, you're one of the, uh, network's Mountain West Conference experts.
25:17
Uh, where are you looking at there tonight? So there's two games that are worth mentioning here. Uh, the first, uh, 737, 738 to give Matt Humans, right, to the rotation. You gotta find it.
25:26
Um- [laughs] You and Jim today, making the fans happy... San- uh, yeah, of course, you gotta do it.
25:30
Um, San Jose State's on the road against Utah State, and they're catching 19 and a half now at some spots against the Aggies. And look, San Jose State is very injured.
25:39
Their top two scorers have been, uh, missing the last two contests, so it's been a little bit of an issue.
25:43
But guys, if you remember against Nevada, uh, without their top two scorers, they pushed Nevada in the first half, let go of the rope in the second half, ended up getting smoked by the Wolf Pack, but I think they were, uh, trailing or leading by two at the break on Friday night against the Wolf Pack here.
25:56
Yep. Uh, and then of course, without their top two scorers, uh, pushed San Diego State to the brink. So now we're up to 19 here against Utah State. I...
26:04
And we don't know whether or not these guys are gonna be available tonight, but I feel like again, San Jose State, at the very least, you might be able to look at this team in the first half and get a pretty good effort from this squad.
26:13
They're very well-coached. Tim Miles is an awesome head coach. He's done a great job with a team that doesn't really have that much. They're the best cover team in the country.
26:20
As you see, they're right there, 18, 6 and 1, and part of that is the way that they are coached and their scheme. So I really do like the San Jose State squad.
26:26
I wanna see where this gets to and monitor the injury report to see whether or not you're gonna get Aduje out there for sure, uh, as well as, uh, his teammate.
26:33
So I think that this is definitely worth looking at here, San Jose State against Utah State. That's such a big number. Will McClendon the other name, uh, that you should monitor.
26:40
And then really quickly, I'm gonna bring this up 'cause I'm on with Mitch today on Follow The Money filling in for Paulie. Uh, New Mexico and Boise State.
26:47
Boise State's now a four-and-a-half point favorite, total of 152 and a half. Again, if we go by pure market, like, "Hey, where do you rate these two teams on a neutral?"
26:55
I would say this number is a little out of whack because this would tell you that Boise State's rated slightly better on a neutral court. I don't believe that to be the case. I love this New Mexico team.
27:04
They've been running very hot, although the last two games they've needed comebacks against Wyoming and Utah State to get it done.
27:09
But situationally, and this is, I think, the interesting aspect, it makes much more sense to play Boise. New Mexico has been running hot.
27:17
Boise's playing their first home game in two weeks, have not been playing particularly well, coming off of a beat down at the hands of San Diego State on the road against the Aztecs.
27:24
They're a much better home team than they are on the road. And I think the market's overvaluing the situation.
27:31
And we have so many different spots throughout the year, guys, where the market has been too heavy on these situational spots. Last night's a good example.
27:38
You know Villanova got up to a 10-point underdog at one point yesterday? Yeah. They closed about eight and a half. Never really got into you.
27:44
You never really were threatened until that final possession, uh, in terms of not covering that number.
27:48
And I think this is one of those, again, where as much as I love this, uh, Boise State spot, I thought this was gonna be more like two and a half, and we're up to f- four and a half in some spots.
27:57
And it'd be very much maybe trying to push against the grain here despite the negative situational spot for the Lobos. Yeah, I thought this would be closer to a pick 'em too.
28:03
How about the job, uh, the other Pitino is doing at New Mexico this year? St. John's and New Mexico, both Pitino-led squads, both 22 and 4 this season.
28:12
That'll be a good story to see come March if, uh, maybe they get placed in the same quadrant of the bracket. JVT, before we hit the NBA, one last game I wanted to get your thoughts on.
28:22
Alabama, Missouri, saw last night Bama was favored by a point, point and a half in some shops, now pretty much universally catching one and a half coming off the loss against Auburn.
28:31
They are 3 and 0 against the number after a loss this year. What are your thoughts about this game? You know, I really like this Missouri squad a lot, and I think they deserve a little bit more respect here at home, Joe.
28:41
And, and like, uh, look, I think Alabama is a very good team obviously. They've been treating teams relatively well.
28:46
I think though we saw some of the flaws for this team defensively when you looked at that Auburn game over the weekend. In SEC play, they're ninth in defensive efficiency.
28:53
They're giving up about 106.7 points per 100 possessions. I think they have some flaws on that end that can be exposed against some high-end offensive teams, and you're getting that here with Missouri.
29:03
A team that is top 10-ish, uh, when you talk about offensive rating in the country, a team that can spread the floor, shoot the ball extremely well, moves the ball around too.
29:11
I, I really like what Missouri brings to the table, and I do think that you deserve a little bit more respect here at home.
29:16
And I would say this too, again, talking about these situations, I mean, I wouldn't want to just blindly bet Alabama here on the bounce back, and I think that was initially rated here into this number.
29:26
I think the market's getting this right and pushing this back down. And I know it's only Georgia, but I was really impressed with Missouri over the weekend. It was a three-point deficit for them at the half.
29:33
They smoked the Bulldogs in the second half on the road. This is a team that I think is formidable.
29:38
I think you can argue they're the third-best team here in the SEC, and that desands, uh, demands a little bit more respect. And for Alabama- Well-...
29:43
I think big picture too, uh, just really quickly, um, this stretch that they're gonna go on, very big in determining what this one seed's gonna be for them.
29:51
They were like minus 350 the other day to get a one seed, but I would be very much looking at Houston to maybe kind of snatch that from them down the stretch, 'cause their schedule, Missouri, Kentucky, Miss State, uh, which by the way, big win for them yesterday, looked very formidable.
30:03
Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn is gonna be a gauntlet for them to end the year, and I, I think that you could get them to slip from that one seed status. John, NBA back in action tonight.
30:12
I've added a couple things over the break. Any, uh, futures bets or win totals or awards or anything like that that you've bet here over the past week?
30:19
No, so I, I did bet that there's not really much that I bet from a futures perspective, Kelly. I have this win total contest that I have entered out here in Las Vegas, and you're in it too. Yeah.
30:27
So I'm very, yeah, so I'm, I'm very much like- I'll check you on that. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. So, uh, dude, I have like a spreadsheet that's, like, got all the win totals. I'm tracking them all and everything like that.
30:35
Um, but, like, I'm very much invested.
30:37
And then the win totals that I've actually got that are gonna be really sweats, but I will say this 'cause I heard you the other day, and I do think that it's very much worth looking at.
30:44
Um, Toronto, I completely agree with what you were talking about the other day. They're a team that I think wants to win, that is going to push the pedal on this.
30:51
They're not gonna be one like Philly that I think now is going to... You know, I keep saying it bleep or get off the pot when it comes to this top six protected pick.
30:58
I think it's time that they're, I think they're gonna bleep, right?
31:00
I think they're gonna crap it, and they're gonna go down to the tank and, and willingly try to get this top six protected selection while Toronto's gonna make this push, and I would very much think they agree with you.
31:10
Over on a win total, I think it's a sneaky. Now, it's gonna be a s- like, it's gonna have to be a grind here, Kelly, but if we're right about Philly and Chicago is terrible- Yeah...
31:18
you could find Toronto at, like, 12 to 1 to participate in the Eastern Conference play-in.
31:22
I think that's gonna be an interesting sweat down the stretch 'cause I think they're gonna try to push for that, and if Ingram comes back at some point, they can absolutely, and I think absolutely push for it.
31:30
So I think Toronto's there, and I'll mention this really quickly. I brought this up to Paul, too. I have Atlanta to make the playoffs at about two to one from a couple of months ago. They're playing much better.
31:39
I would also very much recommend five or six to one to win the Southeast division. That division sucks. They are all within a half game of each other, and yet it is Orlando who is the favorite.
31:50
It is Miami who is above them, too. They're near picks to win that division. And then here you have Atlanta in much better competitive form down the stretch into the All-Star break.
31:59
I think that when you look at three teams all within a half game of each other, I'll take the team that has been playing a little bit more competitive basketball heading into the All-Star break at six to one when I don't think there's that much separating those three in that division.
32:10
Yeah, this guy next to me has been trying to talk me into that bet for a week now it seems like. [laughs] All week. I mean, yeah, you got plus 105.
32:15
I mean, the last I saw on DraftKings, Orlando plus 105, Miami plus 160, Atlanta, uh, like nine to two. I, I mean, you know, you gotta, you gotta go for it.
32:24
Yeah, and I, I did add, I added yesterday Raptors, uh, I went back to bed again after the show, and that number had run out already. So I did add- Yeah...
32:32
30-plus wins at plus, I think it was, like, three to one, something like that. Yeah. I'm with you, though. Like, I, I got close to the play-in tournament price.
32:39
I can't, I can't bash anybody who wants to go there with that. Um, game's going. We got the Lakers and Hornets in action tonight, and then big slate tomorrow.
32:47
Any bets that you've made so far either tonight or looking ahead to tomorrow? I mean, I haven't made this yet 'cause I'm gonna monitor the injury report.
32:54
Uh, and we know that LeBron got everybody mad because he didn't participate in the All-Star game.
32:58
Um, but I, I think that, look, Charlotte, um, I might regret this, but I think that this ra- this Lakers team is gonna be pretty bad on defense. Yeah.
33:06
I think we've seen examples of that in the two games right before the All-Star break, right? Utah in the first matchup out in LA ends up getting over their team total there.
33:13
In the second half has an offensive rating of 118, and then in the rematch in Utah right before the break, they absolutely smoke 'em, drop 130, offensive rating of about a 132 or something like that.
33:22
I think that this is going to be a problem for LA, and so I don't know if I trust them laying these big numbers even against lesser opponents like Charlotte. Charlotte, too, got a positive injury report.
33:31
Looks like LaMelo Ball is gonna be out there. Mark Williams, despite the fact that the Charlotte Hornets don't want him, is going to be available as well.
33:37
[laughs] Uh, and there's no real d- like, threat at center that is going to tear him up like Anthony Davis did if you remember, what was it?
33:43
Two or three weeks ago when Anthony Davis ripped them a new one, and then the Charlotte Hornets had to come back, sneak inside of that number. I think this team could be pretty competitive here.
33:51
So a 12 seems like a big number, but again, I would sit back and wait.
33:54
If LeBron's gonna get upgraded, then you can sit there and grab maybe 13 by the time this thing, uh, gets to that point where we're gonna get the tip-off, but I think the Hornets are gonna be pretty live here tonight.
34:02
JBT, real quick, like 15 seconds or less. Phoenix, their live total is 40 and a half wins. They'd have to go fi- uh, 15 and 13 to go over that. Do you stay under? Kelly and I are both into that under.
34:13
Uh, I mean, they've, they've burned me already. I have them to win 55-plus games, so I'm gonna say under. I hate them. [laughs] Oh, wow. [laughs] JBT, great stuff, man, really appreciate you hopping on.
34:23
Good to talk to you guys. Thanks. Make sure you catch him today on Follow the Money coming up at, uh, what is that? 1, 1 Pacific, 4 Eastern. More NBA Western Conference win total talk on the other side.
34:34
He's Kelly Bedell, and I'm Joe Serallo. It's a Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:53
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34:56
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35:08
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35:32
The Numbers Game continues alongside Kelly Bedell, and I'm Joe Serallo taking you through this Wednesday morning, February 19th edition of the program.
35:40
And now taking you back to our progressive guest line as we get ready to talk some NBA awards, some college hoops futures as well with our friend Michael Montesano. Mike, how you doing today? Thanks for hopping on.
35:51
Th- thanks for having me. Good to be here. Absolutely.
35:54
I wanna look at one particular awards market with you off the bat because I just don't think it makes a lot of sense to me, especially with all of the drama that has surrounded Jimmy Butler and South Beach this year, and now getting an opportunity to kinda take the reins to this Miami Heat team.
36:09
Let's talk most improved player.
36:11
Seems like it's a two-man race between Cade Cunningham minus 105 on the, on the DraftKings odds board, Norm Powell catching, uh, $1.05, and then you look down the list, and there's Tyler Herro all the way at 16 to 1.
36:24
Should he be priced shorter than this given the fact that he is now, like I said, kinda taking the reins from Jimmy when it comes to this Miami team? He, he definitely should be priced shorter.
36:35
I mean, I think, uh, you know, I think Kelly has mentioned it on the show. I took Hero at 50 to 1 a couple months back, and I think he was the favorite at one point. Um, if you're just gonna go look...
36:47
I, I use three categories, the points per game increase, the PER, which player efficiency rating increase, and the win share increase, to kinda see where everyone is.
36:57
And, you know, you're looking at Cade Cunningham, he's increased 2.7 points per game. Norm Powell has had a tremendous year, 10.3 points per game, and Tyler Herro 3.1.
37:08
Uh, if you look at player efficiency rating, the increase, Cade Cunningham 2.9, Norm Powell 5.5, and Ty- Tyler Herro 3.3.
37:16
But then when we go to the win shares, who's more important to their team, it's Cade Cunningham plus 1.0, Norm Powell plus.7, and Tyler Herro plus 2.6. Wow. So I do think if there is...
37:29
And, and, and I think that, you know, Herro's usage will increase, uh, over the next couple of months now that Butler is not there. Um, he, he is worth a look at 16 to 1 right now. Yeah. But if I had...
37:43
If, if I'm gonna give the winner, as of today, the winner is Norm Powell. I mean, Norm Powell's gone from 13 points a game to 24 points a game, and I know his role has increased.
37:53
But he, you know, a few years back, if you look, you look back at when he was playing around the same minutes he is this year, I think he had, like, w- one year he was averaging, like, 17 a game.
38:02
So he's really improved his play a lot, and it's tough to overlook in this market, uh, points per game and player efficiency rating. Um, and Cade's already been a great player.
38:12
I mean, I guess we can go back to the Ja Morant thing a couple years ago. But I, I, I would give it as of today to Norm Powell, but I think Herro's gonna close that gap as we go on. Yeah, it is interesting, Mike.
38:23
I agree with you.
38:23
If I was jumping in right now, I do think i- if you wanted to bet some Herro at 16 to 1, I, I don't know that he's gonna win it, but I think he gets more into the mix here down the stretch, uh, than the numbers currently indicate.
38:35
The Norm Powell one is fascinating. He's the only guy really I don't have any exposure to on the board. You, you tipped me to Herro the one night we got in the, into that together, uh, at 50 to 1.
38:44
I'm in on Cade Cunningham for preseason. Norm Powell's the only guy I really don't have anything on. I know Gil does. You do. Uh, should have joined you when you did.
38:52
Uh, I don't know how they're gonna handle his case just 'cause it's, it's an interesting case that we don't often see. And I'm not saying right, wrong, bad, he should win, shouldn't win.
39:01
It's just he is a guy that was just put in a position of coming off the bench for so long, and now a lot of it is just getting the minutes. And do I, do I... Would I have guessed that he would have done it this well?
39:12
And I've been a Norm Powell fan for so long. No, I wouldn't have. But I, I just don't know how voters are gonna handle that. I think it's really interesting.
39:19
Whereas over the past couple years, we have seen how they handle cases like Cade Cunningham's, right? Yeah.
39:25
It's, it's, it's gonna be, it, it, it's gonna be difficult, but I, I think voters are simpletons, and they're just gonna- Yeah...
39:31
kinda go maybe look at that points per game or even pl- I, I think one, you know, status player efficiency rating. And Powell's got a plus 5.5 in player- Yeah... efficiency rating. I mean, he's really improved.
39:42
And like I said, i- a, a few years ago, he wa- If you go back and look at his numbers, he did play, like, 32 minutes a game, and he was averaging, like, 17 points a game.
39:49
So this, this is a, a nice, uh, step up from him, um, not only from those years, but from last year as well. Yeah, 41 starts that year, too.
39:56
I think that is a good year to c- compare it to more recently when he was, he was strategically being brought off the bench. Right. Hey, I, I think it's a gr- great points all around.
40:04
Let's go to defensive player of the year. I know this is one that you've been kinda tracking all year. Uh, look, the odds say this is done. Wemby's won it, and it's all over.
40:13
Uh, i- is there a bet here, or sh- or let me phrase it, uh, differently. Should this race be closer than what it is? Y- the race absolutely should be closer than what it is based on what happened last year.
40:24
Okay, I was on Gil's show last year preaching to the choir about Wemby's on/off splits. Uh, Wemby's the best defensive overall player, and everyone kept going back to, "Well, he's not on a top-ranked defense.
40:38
We can't give it to him 'cause he's not on a top-ranked defense." Okay, so we, we fast-forward to this year. He has the same, basically the same counting stats as last year.
40:48
Last year's counting stats were 13.2, and the counting stats are defensive rebounds per game plus blocks per game plus steals per game. He's up.9 from last year. His minutes have increased by four.
41:00
Okay, but his team has gotten worse from a month ago. They were 12th in d- team defensive, uh, rating a month ago. Now they're 22nd. His individual defensive efficiency rating is just where it was last year.
41:14
He hasn't gotten any better. His defensive win shares has not gotten any better. His defensive blocks plus/minus has not gotten any better.
41:24
There are players that are above him in all these categories, but now we have ESPN, the voters at ESPN, they're, all they're looking at, "Ah, we're just gonna give it to Wem- Wemby 'cause he has the most blocks," and this, that, and the other.
41:36
And now I have to hear ESPN talking about on/off splits. [laughs] Well, we, we were talking about on/off splits last year. Yeah.
41:41
So if it, if it didn't matter last year, it shouldn't matter this year, and you have a team in Oklahoma City that has two of the top defensive players in the league, and it's not Lou Dort.
41:51
Lou Dort is not a top defensive player. He was given that reign by Chris Mannix and, and, and Doris Burke because he stopped, uh, um, uh, Brown from Boston and Mitchell from Cleveland.
42:05
They had two bad games when he covered them for most of the game. The top two defensive players in the league are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Williams.
42:12
If you even wanna go further, we can go to Zubac from, from the Los Angeles Clip- Mm-hmm... Clippers. He's having a tremendous year. Alman Thompson, having a tremendous year. Victor Wembanyama has the counting stats.
42:25
He has not made his team better defensively this year, and they're only getting worse. I love how adamant you are about the argument. You just mentioned SGA.
42:34
Now, maybe not to the degree of the defensive player of the year market, where Wemby's a minus 2,000 favorite, but S- SGA does have a firm hold on this market for the MVP, minus five bucks. Jokic, plus 350.
42:47
Is that worth, uh, is that worth a bet? Well, after the straw poll that, Tim Bontemps' straw poll that just came out, I don't know if it's worth a bet, but I do...
42:57
I think, personally, I already, I bet him plus 450 a few weeks ago.
43:01
He's number one in player efficiency rating, and not only is he number one, he's having the greatest, one of the greatest seasons of all time per the PER numbers. Go back 15, 20 years, as of today.
43:12
Now, will that ch- could that change? Obviously, it could. He's number one in win shares. He's number one in win shares per 48 minutes. He's number one in box plus-minus, and he's number one in value over replacement.
43:24
You can go to all those, you can go to Basketball Reference and view all those numbers.
43:28
Shai is number two in all them, but Shai's getting the votes because Shai leads the league in, in, uh, in points per game, and he's got, he's on the best team.
43:39
We always talk about the best team, but the best player is Nikola Jokic, and it's not even close. But unfortunately, I don't think he's gonna win it this year, even though I have, I just made a bet on him.
43:50
I think, again, we have the group thinkers. They're all talking about Shai, but if you look at the numbers, all the numbers, Jokic is, is the MVP. But again, this would be four in five years.
44:03
We could have voter fatigue with that. Yeah, I mean, I was gonna say, there's definitely voter fatigue.
44:06
It's amazing to be averaging a triple-double and, and people just are like, "Ah, well, that's expected at this point." Yeah. Expected greatness, uh, often goes unnoticed. Final minute here, Michael.
44:16
How about some college hoops futures? What are you into in that market? Yeah. I, I, I have two to make the Final Four. I mean, I have a, I have a portfolio to, to win national championships.
44:26
No one wants to hear what numbers I got with Alabama and Florida a- and Kentucky. No one wa- you know, so I'm not talking, but I'm gonna say as of today, to make the Final Four, Florida plus 165.
44:38
It looks like per Joe Leonardi they're gonna ship them out w- they're gonna ship them out west. If you look at the top four seeds, I like them. Now, a nice underdog, a nice price is Michigan State 10 to 1.
44:49
If they are put in the East with Duke, I think they have an excellent shot. It's i- one of Izzo's best offensive teams he's had in several years, and he, we all know Izzo magic in March.
45:01
He has the defensive rating, and again, it's just to get to the Final Four. They're 10 to 1 a- at DraftKings. I like both of those, uh, uh, numbers today. Wouldn't be the first time Izzo ended Duke's season in March.
45:14
They took down that Zion-led team, of course, uh, some years back. Mike, really appreciate the time. Thanks so much for joining the show. Thanks for having me, guys.
45:22
Michael Montesano with us there talking NBA awards markets and some college hoops Final Four futures as well. We'll get into my college hoops action best bets up next. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo.
45:34
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