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Feb 21, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 21, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 21, 2025
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45:41
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on BSIN. All right, let's have some fun. Happy Friday.
0:13
It's time for a Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Serallo. Kelly, it's gonna be the last show after a hell of a two-week run together, man. Man. It's g- gonna miss you, Joe. We're gonna miss you.
0:22
You know, I'm, I'm just gonna miss having a co-host, period.
0:24
[laughs] Sorry if that's not exclusive to you, but [laughs] I, I was gonna say, you're gonna have to do regular check-ins with me and Gil, but I forget, me, me and Joe have had a, I don't even wanna say an unspoken, 'cause it's been spoken, just be like, "Hey, I like you, I respect you, I'm never going on your show 'cause it's too early or too late."
0:38
[laughs] Yeah, absolutely. Hey, you know, when I was living at Circa for a little bit- Yeah... I, I, I popped on once or twice. That's right, you popped on once. Yeah. Yeah.
0:45
It's a lot easier when you just have to come downstairs. Right. Yeah, it's like, "Hey, can you walk downstairs for me? Thanks." Right. [laughs] "All right, yeah, I'll stop at Jackpotz, get a coffee.
0:51
I'll, I'll be there in 10." You know, someone canceled on... That's by the way, how it happened. I'm sure it was someone canceled on Kelly. Oh, Joe.
0:57
Like, like our friend Paul Carr, he was like, "Look, I got too much going on, I can't do it. Call in Serallo, he can be my sub." And, uh- No, not at all, actually. Paul's one of the go-tos when someone else cancels.
1:07
Oh, really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Paul's, uh, Mr. Re- Ol- Reliable there? I'm not gonna put 'em all out there, but I got my go-to guests, that's for sure. That if someone cancels, I'm giving him a call. I love it.
1:15
Well, we've got Paul on the show today. I can't wait. He's gonna kick off hour two for us.
1:20
Right here in hour one, just about 30 minutes away, Josh Fisher, the creator of Stripe Sports, one of my regulars on Cashing Out, gonna break down some NBA futures with us.
1:29
And then how about some MLB talk with Anthony Recker, former MLB catcher. You catch him now on MLB Network. That's gonna take us home later on in hour two.
1:40
Great guest line-up to, uh, to send us off here in the final episode of our little two weeks together on a Numbers Game. Make sure you get involved with the show on Twitter, @TheJoeSerallo for myself, @KellyBidlin.
1:54
Best tweets get read on air. Make sure that you get your voice heard, become a part of the program. Kelly, how was your, uh, what was your take on that hockey game last night?
2:05
I thought that was everything, regardless of, you know, who won at the end, I thought that was everything we need in a championship to be. Yeah. Whole lot of fun, man. Whole lot of fun.
2:12
I mean, if you can, if you can keep my attention locked in for the entirety of a hockey game, which that pretty much did, uh, you did a great job. And, uh, man, overtime was crazy. I still can't get over that.
2:22
You know what, I can't believe- I mean, the saves... a- a- and I had, you know, money on Canada, and I can't believe the US didn't win that in OT. I mean, Binnington was just... He, he was the second star.
2:34
Obviously McDavid, the game-winning goal, got first star honors. But Binnington, you could really argue, deserved to be the first star- Yeah...
2:40
because he made so many saves in overtime where it was like point-blank, this one's gotta be over, US is gonna bury him. And- Like, a couple tough saves too, man Yeah... like, they're like really, really good saves.
2:53
The extension he had on one- Yeah... coming in from his left was, I, I mean, they showed the replay like two, three times, was just absolutely stunning ex- extension. Just a great game by Binnington.
3:03
And he gets now his second big win in, uh, in TD Garden. Won a game seven there about- Mm-hmm... five, six years back for St. Louis.
3:12
So, you know, that was the thing, because obviously a lot of people have been talking about how the US had the goaltending advantage, which I believe, a- and I could be off on this number, I believe I heard earlier in the week, 20 of the 32 starting goaltenders in the NHL are American-born.
3:27
Wow. Which- All right. Well, we got that. Yeah, right? [laughs] Let's go, America. It's a crazy shift. I mean, goaltending used to be the greats of all time, uh, I mean all Canadian, right? Yeah.
3:35
So it's a crazy shift how the US is dominating goaltending, and that was considered Canada's really lone weakness coming into this, was that the US had Hellebuych, and, you know, Binnington was their top guy.
3:45
And Binnington won a Stanley Cup five, six years back with St. Louis, but not the same guy that, uh, that he was back then.
3:51
Well, you know, he won it in Boston and now, uh, he really, he won them that championship game last night in Boston. Yeah, yeah.
3:58
Brady Tkachuk tr- uh, becoming one of my favorite players though through this tournament of just, like, the... Like, that was just, like, a bulldozer goal he had last night.
4:05
It's just like, "I'm gonna fly full speed at the net, and, like, the puck's gonna hit some part of me- See what happens... and I'm gonna get it in there somehow." Yeah. Yeah. That was, uh, no, that was a blast.
4:14
That was a fun hockey game. Uh, recapping some other action from the night. That Celtics first half play got home. Good on you, man. Yeah, I mean- Laying three and a huck. That was a good call. That was a good call.
4:26
C- Celtics full game, first half, easy-peasy, no problems.
4:28
That was a, that was a little weird getting all that, seeing all that Sixers money come in yesterday and this line go down, down, down, six and a half where it closed at. Oh, I didn't even see it close- Yeah...
4:36
at six and a half. My goodness. So no, yeah, really no sweat all night long for Boston. Yeah.
4:40
I mean, this Philadelphia team, you know, they, they've got their, quote-unquote, "big three," and everyone was all excited about Paul George and Embiid and Maxey.
4:48
And, I mean, I'll say off the jump, I, I was very skeptical of George and what he would bring to the table. But, I mean, none of these guys did anything, right? Embiid, three for nine from the floor, 15 points.
4:58
George, 17 points, which honestly is, is better than I feel like- Yeah... a lot of outings we're seeing out of him. Maxey, who's had a, I think a terrific season, um, 16 points, seven assists.
5:08
You know, m- uh, modest, respectable game, but nothing, uh, nothing that you'd expect out of those guys. You'd think one guy'd get you home with 20, 25, 30 maybe.
5:16
For all of these guys to be stuck in the teens, 15, 16, 17 points respectively, i- i- it's like, someone take the reins over here. Yeah, I, I, I got a soft spot for Tyrese Maxey. I, I really like him- Same...
5:26
as a player. I w- w- hand one, wanna Most Improved Player ticket on him last year. But it's, you saw him last year take that jump, you know? He become an All-Star, become a great player.
5:35
But I'll tell you, Joe, it's a lot to ask of that guy this year, where all of a sudden you go from last year into this year, and it's, you know you had Joel Embiid concerns, but you add Paul George, you don't expect things are gonna be nearly as bad as what they are with him.
5:49
I, Paul George having the, the worst season of his career pretty much. Um, so you're getting nothing from him. You don't know when Joel Embiid's gonna play or not.
5:56
So, you know, all of a sudden overnight, it's not only beco- it became Tyrese Maxey's team, but it's, you don't even really have all that much help around you most of the nights that you're out there.
6:05
So i- i- i- it's, man, it's been tough to watch this Sixers team, uh, throughout this entire season.
6:09
I don't- I, well, well maybe these guys can get healthy and get a, hit a hot streak when they get in the playoffs, or if they get into the playoffs, but- Yeah. It's, it's not when, it's if right now. It... Right, yeah.
6:18
But not a team I'm counting on seeing much from. No, not at all. I, I mean, look, and to your point, I also love Tyrese Maxey, right? But part of what made Maxey so special is that he's got Embiid out there. Right. Yeah.
6:29
So when Embiid's drawing, you know, the, the most, the majority of the attention from opposing defenses, Maxey can light you up from outside. Mm-hmm.
6:35
Now it, it's like you said, it's Maxey's team, and he doesn't have the supporting cast. And Paul George, to your point, worst year of his career. Embiid's having a, a nonexistent year. Yep.
6:44
'Cause even though when he's out there his numbers look good, they look pretty, 24 and 8, he's played 18 games this year. So you got no Embiid essentially. Uh, Paul George being a non-factor.
6:54
Well, I mean, is it safe to call him a liability out there? Yeah, probably. Yeah, probably. This is just, it's an absolute bleep show for Philadelphia right now, and Tyrese Maxey can't do it all alone.
7:03
He's been, I think, unquestionably their best player this year. Still a top five- Their, their lone bright spot... I think he's still a top five scorer in the NBA, so he's still, still- Yeah...
7:10
putting up those kind of numbers. But I mean, you hold Jayson Tatum to 15.
7:13
Now albeit he did have a triple double, so a good performance out of him, but you hold him to 15, you hold Derrick White to 16, Jaylen Brown to 20. You, you'd think you can get something cooking. You'd think.
7:22
You know, it's not like any of the stars on Boston went out there and killed them, but Payton Pritchard turned into hell of a night. [laughs] And I just flipped over to these Sixth Man of the Year odds.
7:29
Payton Pritchard after, after he had dr- uh, came back to about minus 105, I think is where I saw him at yesterday, back out to minus 185 after a 28-point, uh, performance. Was it 105?
7:39
I thought 150 was the number we saw yesterday with Hunter at 280. Might, might've been back up. Yeah, he might've been back up. He had been, he had been coming down- Wow...
7:45
closer and closer to even money though the past couple weeks. Yeah, I mean, Hunter at plus 280 didn't look like a bad bet yesterday when we were doing our NBA awards stuff. He's out to four to one now. Yep.
7:53
Speaking of NBA awards, uh, as we were playing our, our game of, uh, what, what was it? Done or not done yet? Yeah, that aged well. Yeah.
8:00
[laughs] Minutes after we get off air, maybe seconds, uh, Defensive Player of the Year entered the not done yet category. Yep. Wemby was, uh, laying 2,000 as the easy favorite, and now with his blood clots, what was it?
8:16
Thrombosis in his right shoulder- Yeah... the official diagnosis.
8:20
Which first off, I just wanna say, you know, because obviously we, we look at so many things, and no pun intended with this show being a numbers game, but here at the network, we look at the numbers surrounding so many things and how it impacts the betting market, and sometimes you forget to look at the humanity of it all.
8:35
I mean, this guy's a kid. A- and for me to say that shows you how young he is, right? Mm-hmm.
8:40
We- Victor Wembanyama is a kid, and you see what he's going through right now, and I think the easy comparison, and the first guy that pops into mind is Chris Bosh.
8:48
And when Chris Bosh was going through this, that was essentially the last we saw and heard of Chris Bosh on an NBA court in an NBA uniform.
8:55
And, you know, this is Victor Wembanyama, uh, the most hyped up, most generational prospect we've seen, I would say probably since LeBron James. Yeah.
9:04
I mean, you can argue Zion, and he's kind of been a bust because he can't stay healthy. But the Wemby hype has been absolutely insane.
9:10
And so looking at this kind of twofold here, first off, I hope we get to see him live up to his full potential as an athlete, and that we get to enjoy everything he's capable of on the court, and that this doesn't hinder him, you know, beyond this season.
9:24
Mm-hmm. Secondly, looking at it from more of a human perspective, I mean, this is a kid. I, I hope he's able to have a normal life.
9:30
Because Chris Bosh, once this came over, you know, really lost his ability to have a normal life. Yeah. Glad you brought it up, Joe, 'cause it really was the, one of the first things I thought of yesterday.
9:39
It's just, uh, yeah, it scare- if you're a fan of the NBA, and man, you've h- you've heard a lot of, uh, criticism about the association I think the pa- this past year, past couple years, and this is the next guy, like you said, the next generational talent.
9:52
We've seen it coming for years. Uh, y- as young as he is, it would still been a few, few years that we've seen this coming with him, and he's starting to play up to that level.
10:00
It, it's, it is really, it's really tough, and especially when we've seen some of the past examples. We've seen a little bit more recently, Brandon Ingram, Masai Thompson, and no, nobody's a doctor on this show.
10:10
But we've seen these guys deal with blood clots, have to take off the rest of the season, eventually come back just fine.
10:16
But yeah, y- there are the examples of Chris Bosh, um, a- and, and others that have had to deal with multiple of these, and it can really be career affecting.
10:23
So you really hope this is just one, and he's able to move on from this, and it just happened to be, uh, you know, in the shoulder and, and you t- you heard a lot of these guys talking yesterday about the repetitive motions that you see from pitchers and basketball players sometimes, that these being a little bit more common to get in your arms.
10:39
Uh, but still it's, it's an odd, it's a freak injury and, and obviously not something this team was expecting after trading for De'Aaron Fox and hoping to make a run, you know, towards the playoffs, towards a play-in with De'Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama.
10:51
This hits them, and all of a sudden, uh, it brings their season to a complete halt.
10:55
And, you know, Joe, as far as the, as far as the Spurs go too, and I know we wanna talk Defensive Player of the Year, probably have to, uh, bleed that over to the next segment.
11:02
I think as far as the Spurs go, this, you have to start thinking about this team very, very differently than we were thinking about them just a week ago. It's A, are they live?
11:09
I mean, we had Zach Cohen on, uh, just la- last week.
11:12
I've brought it up a couple times of this being a team I'm interested in making a push, uh, the second half of the season and trying to get into that play-in tournament and make a run at the playoffs.
11:21
And now you gotta wonder if they start turning into a tanking team to try to get another high-end talent to pair next to Victor to going forward. Yeah. I mean, wow, he's just turned 21 a month ago. Yeah.
11:30
Hopefully this doesn't, uh, doesn't hinder what could be, should be, will be a great career if he's out there and if he's healthy. I'll tell you what, they didn't tank last night.
11:38
We'll get into some surprising results in the NBA last night, as well as some award race updates on the other side. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serallo. It's a Numbers Game.
11:46
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
Numbers Game continues alongside Kelly Bedlam, Joe Serallo taking you through your Friday morning. And now, as we continue our NBA awards talk, taking you over to the Progressive guest line.
12:12
If you watch me on Cashing Out, you know who's about to join the show, the creator of Stripe Sports. You can also catch him weekly on ESPN Austin down there in the Lone Star State.
12:22
Our friend Josh Fisher joining the show. Josh, happy Friday. How are you, man? Good. Feel good. Woke up, ran five miles, had a delicious breakfast, you know, watched the news, read the paper- Yeah...
12:34
ready to rock and talk some betting with you guys. Same for all of us, right? Big, big, big West LA 4:30 AM jog guy.
12:39
You know, he's, uh, he's out there with all the single moms walking their poodles in Brentwood every morning, you know? I went seven miles this morning, but it's not a contest. Oh, okay. Okay. All right.
12:48
We- we don't wanna be best. But it's no problem. You know what? I'm not even mad. I'm proud of you. I'm like, good for you. That's awesome. [laughs] Yeah, I don't know.
12:53
Josh, we're talking, uh, defensive player of the year all morning on this program, and, uh, obviously the awful Wemby news yesterday shook up the awards market. Ugh. And I mean, look, y- you...
13:03
First off, we just wish Wemby the best, and it's atrocious to see this. The kid's 21 years old. Hopefully it doesn't hinder a long and successful potentially Hall of Fame career.
13:12
But now when you look at this odds board and the impact it's got on it, this thing is wide open. I disagree Jaren Jackson's the odds-on guy.
13:19
I don't think anyone should be an odds-on favorite in this market, and you got, you know, three players on the best defensive team in the league currently among the seven shortest shots.
13:30
Do you think about going to one of those guys? Yeah. I mean, well, like, first of all, Triple J's won the award before, so let's not give him, like, you know, let's not discredit him. He's one of the best.
13:39
He's one of, he's one of my favorite players in the league. I think the guy's completely underrated, and he's the reason the Memphis Grizzlies are, are where they are, not Ja Morant. He's the all-star.
13:48
Uh, but to me, I think Lou Dort is the unsung hero in Oklahoma City. They are the best defensive team in basketball by a country mile. It's, like, not even debatable who the best defensive team in basketball is.
14:00
So at that point, why shouldn't the best defensive player on the bonafide best defensive team win the award? Like, it's my, it's my... It's almost my reasoning with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander versus Jokic.
14:14
Is Jokic the best player in the world? Yes. Has he been more statistically impressive than Shai? Probably. All that to be said, they are without a doubt the best team.
14:25
So why shouldn't the best player on the best team win the MVP? Isn't the whole point of this to win? Isn't winning everything? Well- I don't know. So w- [laughs] That's just kind of my little rant for the morning.
14:39
Where I would come back on that, though, is that, you know, we've seen this in MVP races in the past, when a team has two guys, in this case three guys, who all excel in one area, do you think there's a chance that they take votes away from each other?
14:51
Would that give you pause in betting Dort knowing, hey, maybe some people are gonna bet SGA. He's the best two-way player in the game. Obviously, this isn't the two-way award. It's the defensive player of the year award.
15:00
But I, I could see these guys taking votes away from one another. Um, they could. Yeah, they could, they could. They real- they realistically could. Uh, I mean, I don't even... The- is he the best two-way player?
15:11
I mean, that's a whole Giannis debate we could have for another show. Uh, but Lou Dort to me has just... He gets no love, man. He does all the dirty work for this Thunder team. He picks up the toughest matchup.
15:24
He guards the best wing player in the, and it's the NBA, and there's a bevy of good wing players, right? And he can pick up the best guard. He could re- he could realistically, like, he could guard one through five.
15:34
You know what I'm saying? If he had to. Like, he's that gritty, you know, he's that tough, and he's that strong. So I, I...
15:40
To me, if this team continues to excel the way they're excelling defensively, and if they could even continue to widen the gap defensively a bit more, I think he should be rewarded. And the odds are just so juicy.
15:50
Like- Yeah... you don't th- don't throw the mortgage on this thing. Um, that's not, that's not what we're advising here. It's just a couple sprinkles in the cupcake. You know what I'm saying?
15:59
Like, it, it's not gonna hurt you. Yeah, Josh, I'm with y- I, I'm with you from the standpoint of I don't think, I don't think the, the two guys at the top should be that short. I think this is way more wide open.
16:09
I think there absolutely could be love that goes to the Thunder here, uh, for what they've done all season long on defense, like you're talking about. Uh, I, I do think the cases are tough to chop up from, from the OKC.
16:19
I wanna hit a couple other guys on this list, though. Dyson Daniels. Do you believe he's really live?
16:23
'Cause I think he'd have to have a pretty sick end of the season and get back to what we saw to, sorta at the beginning.
16:29
I know it's three steals a game, but I think he's gonna have to even get better than that to really be in the mix here, considering his team defense. Yeah. I mean, he, I think that's more of, like, a flashy pick.
16:40
I don't foresee that happening. I think he... Their team unfortunately got cooked when they lost Jalen Johnson. Like, that, that whole thing went away.
16:48
So, uh, I, I, unfortunately for Dyson Daniels, who's had a fantastic year. He's come on strong. You know, with the whole Murray injury, that deal looks like it's blown up in their face, um, un- again, for New Orleans.
16:59
But Dyson Daniels is probably a year away from really taking a good stab at this award.
17:04
So Josh, we're talking a lot about Thunder players here, and that they're obviously right now undisputedly the best team in the league. They're not the team you're riding with to the end.
17:13
Give me a team you love i- in the futures market in just a slew of different ways. Hey, give me the Nuggets, bro. They have the best player in the world.
17:23
They're the best player in the world, who by the way, has already won. Then his second and third best player, I know they're not, like, as s- they don't have the same sex appeal as, like, Jalen Williams, who I love.
17:35
Like, I think Jalen, J-Dub, if you watch, actually watch any Thunder game, which you should, 'cause it's really good basketball, Jalen Williams is such a freak athlete, man. He is so good, and he is so quick and agile.
17:48
I love watching g- go to the basket, man. He is so good to me. But you still have Jamal Murray. You still have Michael Porter Jr. You still have Aaron Gordon.
17:57
Michael Porter Jr, by the way, and, and Jamal Murray are turning it, are starting to turn it on pretty nicely. All those guys have won the NBA finals, and not, not like they won five, six, seven years ago.
18:08
They won two years ago with Mike Malone, their head coach. This whole team's done it, sans Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. By the way, Christian Brown's gotten older.
18:18
By the way, you add Russell Westbrook, who will literally do whatever it takes at this point. Look at him play the game. Yeah. He will do whatever it takes to win.
18:27
He, he does not care anymore He, he, he will fight a janitor if it takes him to win this championship [laughs] A pregnant woman, some would say...
18:35
and the, and the, and the other team [laughs] and the other team's locker room. Russell Westbrook will do whatever it takes to get this thing over the finish line. And to me, I think this team's incredibly dangerous.
18:44
They're incredibly hot right now. And at the end of the day, there's five guys on the court, and when you have the best guy and it's not even, it's not even close,
18:52
I have to ride with you, especially at, especially at plus 1,400. Again, way too nice and juicy for me to pass up on that stake. So are you taking Jokic MVP then as well? Might as well. Might as well, baby.
19:08
[laughs] Like, it's just the, the, the... Like, look, c- if he closes, what if he closes the gap, hypothetically? And by the way, on, like the h- the, Wembanya, Wembanyama injury on so many levels is awful.
19:22
He, again, scary, very young. He's had an unreal sophomore year. The on- like, the weird betting angle you could take from it, especially now in the NBA where there's minimums guys have to play,
19:36
like, at this point, you, you hope everyone stays healthy. You never root for a player's injury.
19:42
But you have to sprinkle a little cash in some places because someone could go down, and then that all of a sudden, like now the defensive player of the year, which was such a bonafide lock, is wide open.
19:52
So if you're really just putting your betting hat on and being a little callous here, right? Like, you have to sprinkle a little cash 'cause God forbid, the worst happens to a player.
20:01
Again, this is the last thing we want. Yeah. You never root for an injury.
20:04
But if that does happen, you have to kinda be prepared before the odds, like Jokic's odds, like hypothetically, would just, you know, plummet in, in, in, in, in, in favor of him.
20:14
So, and, and all that to be said, that, the injury thing aside, like if they, they're nine games back, eight and a half games back, if they close the gap to two or three games, which means the Thunder would've had to fall a little bit and they would still have to be scorching hot, and they would arguably be the hottest team going into the NBA championship, and the most important thing for an MVP race is finishing strong,
20:35
right? Like, he's gonna win the award. He's the best. There is, it's no competition on who the actual best player in the league is. I think- He's Shohei Ohtani. That's what it is. Hmm.
20:48
Yeah, I think it's gonna be a really interesting race down the stretch this year, that's for sure.
20:51
The, and, and Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook, I, to, i- if you're just catching up on the NBA now, these, these have been two of the most fascinating stories, I think, throughout the season, 'cause Jamal Murray, I personally, Josh, I thought he looked a little washed beginning of the year.
21:03
I thought this was gonna be the start of his downfall, and man, he's been playing great ball recently.
21:08
Uh, and Russell Westbrook looks like a different, a different player there in Denver right now, uh, than what we've seen past couple years. So yeah, I think watch out for them.
21:15
Um, I know you got one you're like- liking in the Rookie of the Year market that's just been a complete mess. Where, where are you looking at in the, uh, over there?
21:22
Yeah, I mean, it, you know, Castle should be the favorite, is the favorite, is the safe bet. I, this was one of my favorite picks in the draft coming, like coming out of the draft.
21:34
The minute they took this kid, I was like, "There's no way on God's green earth he's gonna be bad. He's just gonna be good." Like, they just home run picks. He was good in college. He's a big man.
21:43
He's gonna fit so nicely next to Bam. And that's Klay aware. Like, I think at pl- I, I, he's plus 900. I saw him at plus 600 somewhere else. Yeah. He's plus 900 here.
21:53
Yeah, draft- And if he has a, if he has, like a January, Fe- Jan- January, February the rest of the way like he just had, like he's gonna tighten the gap between Castle and make this a tight race.
22:05
Castle should be the favorite. If you wanna put money on that, like no disrespect, go right ahead. Minus 180 is still pretty nice.
22:11
And I like Jalen Williams has had a really strong season, but I think you talk about guys that could take away from each other. Like down the stretch, Edy's gonna have to play more.
22:19
So I think Edy and Williams could take away from each other, as you were discussing Joe, with the Thunder guys taking away from each other.
22:24
Whereas I think Klay aware is gonna continue to progress for the Miami Heat, and the plus 900's a really nice bet for me. Josh, as always, man, awesome stuff. Appreciate the time. I'll see you next week on Cashing Out.
22:34
Thanks for hopping on. Later. Up next, some MLB futures. Josh is gonna be happy when he hears that I am all over his Red Sox this coming season. It's a numbers game. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo.
22:46
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. Just one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Vsin. [upbeat music] All right.
23:02
It's time for another hour of a numbers game alongside Kelly Bedlam, Joe Serallo here taking you through your Friday morning on this February 21st edition of the show. Kelly, it was a really big morning.
23:15
We had the draw for the round of 16- That's right... in the Champions League.
23:19
Who better to talk about it with than our friend, host of the Expected Value podcast, catch him over at True Media Sports, Paul Carr joining us on the progressive guest line. Paul, how are you?
23:30
What was your biggest takeaway from this Champions League round of 16 draw? But I wanna know most importantly, who was the biggest winner?
23:37
Oh, I know you guys were up at, I think it was 4:00 AM your time when this draw happened. So, uh- I hadn't gone to bed yet. Yeah. Yeah. So, so I'm not telling you anything you don't know.
23:44
Uh, but the big winner here- I was up [laughs]... really [laughs] the big winner here was really Barcelona. Um, 'cause the way the draw works, you get one of two teams or those teams that got byes.
23:54
So Barcelona could've gotten PSG, who, you know, has a pretty high ceiling, one of the seven, eight favorites, or they could have gotten Benfica, and they got Benfica.
24:02
And they're in a quarter of the draw where they have Benfica in this round and then either Dortmund or Lille in the next round. So they should be, or they will be large favorites against any of those teams.
24:12
So Barcelona was already one of the three or four favorites, so their odds are down, I think, plus 450 or so to win the Le- the Champions League.
24:18
It's not something I'm running out to bet, but they were the big winner here, just got a nice path to semifinal.
24:24
Yeah, Paul, this is pretty bunched with the updated futures, Real Madrid plus 380, Barcelona plus 450, Liverpool plus 550, Arsenal plus 550, Bayern seven to one, Inter 11 to one, everybody else longer than that.
24:37
Any, uh, anybody else jump out to you that you think is worth a bet with their current path? Uh, I know you've got Bayern in pocket already, right? Yeah, obviously Yeah, obviously...
24:45
Manchester at 700 and they're still there. Uh, I mean, there's nothing here I love. If I had to play something, I would look at either an, maybe an Inter at 11 to 1 or PSG 10 to 1.
24:55
I mean, PSG has Liverpool in this round, which is obviously a favorite, but they'd have a more favorable quarterfinal against Brugge or Aston Villa.
25:02
Uh, Milan, or Inter Milan has Feyenoord here, so they should get through. Then they're probably gonna run into Bayern, maybe Leverkusen. Uh, but neither one of those teams is that great.
25:10
So those are the two I would look at just because they have, you know, they're, they're tough paths. You're in the round of 16, it's gonna get hard, especially in this round or the next.
25:18
But they have, you know, reasonable paths to get at least to the semis. Paul, any interest in Barcelona and playing them at plus 450 given the, uh, the pretty favorable draw here? I don't hate it. I'll put it that way.
25:30
I mean, they're, mentioned they're definitely the best team in their quarter, and realistically they're pretty significantly the best team in their half. Their defense still scares me because it's just not good.
25:40
I've said, you know, they have the best attack in the world maybe, or at least the highest ceiling there, but they also have a pretty low floor for the defense. So, you know, plus 450 is, it's about the right price.
25:51
But if I had to pick one of those two or three favorites, I would probably take them just because of the path to the final. All right, I like it. Good stuff.
25:57
Switching to the Prem now with Paul Carr, and make sure to check out, uh, P- Paul's, uh, podcast On the Ringer too for everything Champions League. Great stuff, uh, going on over there.
26:06
Uh, one game today, Paul, I wanted to throw at you, Leicester and Brentford. Uh, that one's starting here, uh, in about five hours. Brentford minus 105 on the three-way line. Leicester plus 270, draw plus 275.
26:18
Anything that you considered in that one? I thought about the over, uh, over three and a half, and Leicester's relegation-threatened for a reason. They're not that great, especially defensively.
26:28
Uh, Brentford games have been pretty high-scoring on the whole this year. It's plus 145. I was kind of hoping for a little better price, so that's my lean, but it's not something I'm likely gonna end up playing.
26:37
There is another three and a half total, though, that you are interested, right, Paul? You mentioned this Liverpool team just, uh, a couple of moments ago here on the program.
26:45
They've got a marquee match-up Sunday morning against Man City. Which way you going there? Yeah, this is the big game of the weekend, one of the bigger games of the year in the Premier League.
26:54
Uh, I am going over three and a half at even money. Uh, here's the super simple thing. City has played 12 games this calendar year, and 11 of them have had at least four goals. Wow.
27:05
Like, that's, that's your nice and simple thing.
27:07
[laughs] Uh, Liverpool has scored two in six straight Premier League games too, and they played back in December, and it was about four and a half expected goals, uh, between the two, even though I think it ended two-nil.
27:17
Uh, it's the same thing we've been railing on for City all season. Their defense is kind of a mess. We saw this against Real Madrid, uh, earlier in the week, 3-1 final there.
27:26
The one question mark, Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne are both kind of up in the air for Man City from an attacking standpoint. But I, I don't think it matters too much.
27:35
Just think there can be goals one way or the other, like 3-1 either way. 2-2 could be kind of a game here. Uh, there's a chance, you know, both teams kind of tighten up and say, "We're fine with a point."
27:44
But I'm not sure City has that gear in them, and until they show me, uh, especially this year, uh, I'm not gonna go for it. So over three and a half, even money. Couple other bets for you this weekend, Paul.
27:55
Let's, uh, talk through Fulham and, uh, Crystal Palace first. What are you looking there? Yeah, Fulham's an interesting team.
28:00
I thought they might be in a little trouble before the year, uh, maybe relegation-threatened, but they have very much not been. And quietly they have a very solid defense, especially lately.
28:10
The third fewest expected goals in the league, in part 'cause they're not conceding a ton of shots, uh, only about 11 per game, which is fourth fewest in the league.
28:18
And they looked really good in a win against Nottingham Forest last week. They won 2-1, but easily could've had another goal or two.
28:24
Forest is a team that doesn't really want the ball, doesn't need a lot of the ball, and Fulham handled that very well, and Palace is kind of a similar team to Forest in that sense.
28:34
Palace has gotten better results lately, but, uh, they've won four of their last seven, but they've beaten mostly bad teams, Southampton, Leicester, West Ham, Manchester United. Uh, so Fulham's just the better team.
28:44
They're at home. I get plus money on this at plus 105. I will take that. Paul, personally, we've got more action tomorrow. I'm more of a Southampton guy myself- Yeah... but we've got Wolverhampton taking on Bournemouth.
28:54
What do you like in this one? Yeah, Wolverhampton, Bournemouth, these are two teams kind of going different directions, or especially lately.
29:01
Bournemouth has really been playing as well as anybody in the league, only one loss in their last 13 games. They're making kind of a late Champions League push.
29:09
Uh, and they've won three of their last four by multiple goals, with the exception being against Liverpool, so no shame in that. Uh, Wolves on the other hand, they've lost five out of six, three by multiple goals.
29:18
Tough opponents i- in that stretch, but hey, B- Bournemouth's a tough opponent, like I said, playing as well as anybody. Uh, so I like Bournemouth laying the goal and a half here at plus 165.
29:29
Bournemouth's one of the top five teams, uh, defensively as far as both the total number of shots and expected goals they're conceding, and also they don't concede high-quality shots.
29:39
So I think the defense holds up well. 2-nil, 3-nil type of game for Bournemouth here. All right, Paul, I'm going back to the, uh, top goalscorer market again. Is, uh, Mo Salah gonna run away with this thing now?
29:49
Like, this, he's out to minus 310. I- Is it a- Yeah... five-goal le- five-goal lead he has now over, over Haaland? Yeah, I think so, and Haaland's, like, mentioned he's dinged up.
29:58
He missed, uh, missed the Champions League game, uh, midweek. Not sure if he's gonna play this weekend. So yeah, it's gonna get harder and harder to catch Salah just because Liverpool's obviously pressing for the title.
30:08
Uh, he takes their penalties, as we always stress. So it's hard to see anybody catching Salah just given where Liverpool's at and what he needs.
30:15
I mean, you're, you're almost just betting on a Salah injury at this point if you're taking somebody else.
30:20
And Paul, while we're on the subject of Liverpool here, before we let you go, the last thing I want to ask is, you know, w- we saw Liverpool, they were laying $4 earlier in the week to, uh, win the Premier League.
30:30
Now it's come a little shorter. It's down to minus 290. I- Is that, are we approaching a bettable price with Liverpool? Is, is there a certain number you would lay for them, or i- is that still just too much juice?
30:42
I think that's about right. So you're looking at, you know, 75% chance of winning it, which is really what most projections that you'll find are in that area. Uh, so I think it's, it's right for now.
30:52
Uh- And the case to make that is that Arsenal's just so kind of thin that, you know, another injury, especially defensively to Arsenal, and they've just got no shot at, at all, as opposed, you know, one out of four-ish that they got right now.
31:05
So I don't hate it at minus 290, but it's not something I'm gonna rush out to play either. If I had to pick one of the two between Liverpool and Arsenal, given the prices, I would take Liverpool. Yeah.
31:14
But not something I'm running out to play. Two-horse race here. Liverpool minus 290, Arsenal plus 260, and Man City all the way down there at 65 to one, the third shot on the board. [laughs] Really good.
31:24
Paul, really appreciate the time, man, as always. It's been a fun two weeks having you on. Thanks so much. You bet, Joe. Have a good weekend. Make sure you follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr.
31:32
Check out the Expected Value podcast of course. Kelly, would you lay 290 with Liverpool, $3 with Salah, either/or? Man, I, I actually think the Salah price is kind of cheap.
31:45
I, I mean, I had brought- For a five-goal lead, yeah... yeah, like I brought this up a couple times with Paul 'cause I wanted to get in, uh, get in on Holland at some point, uh, especially when he drifted to plus money.
31:54
But now you're talking a five-goal lead. We're, I mean, we are getting down to the final stretch, uh, into the season here. I'm not saying he can't make it up, but man, I'm not, I'm not gonna go lay that.
32:06
Look, I'm not that big of a soccer bettor, Joe. I'm not gonna go lay that price. Right. But we, you know what is screamed in the back of my head?
32:11
It's the, look, if you need another parlay leg out there for a future bet or something like that- Oh... that could be a good one to tie into, yeah. When you're cooking one up on a Saturday night, Kelly- [laughs] Yeah...
32:20
in the, in the lab, as the kids would say. I, I mean, if you wanna tie in, I don't know, let's say you like the Thunder to win the West, but you want a better price on it.
32:27
Maybe you ta- [laughs] maybe you tie in some Mo Salah to lead the- Right... Prem in scoring. So yeah. 'Cause if you're the guy on Valentine's Day when we're giving out futures we love who goes with the even money future.
32:35
[laughs] That's right, man. That's right. Love it. Kelly- Still love it... two-minute drill here. Uh, you brought up a great point to me during the break.
32:42
Of course, uh, you know, wrapped up the last segment with some MLB futures, and I, I'm just really high on this Red Sox team. I think that they match up really well with the Yankees.
32:51
But obviously, the Yankees with the brand name and the, and the casual bettors, they're gonna draw more attention, more money. They're always gonna be shorter priced.
32:59
I think this Boston team, plus 425 to win the AL East is a terrific price. And we talked about the different ways you can bet them. You know, if you win the AL East, you're probably gonna get a one seed.
33:09
I mean, you're definitely gonna get a top two seed. I don't see any team from the- Yeah... AL Central having a better record than the champ of the AL East. The AL West has taken a step back right now.
33:17
The Astros have regressed a bit. Mariners and Rangers, respectable, but not as good as, as the, you know, the top of the AL East. So Boston, 11 to one to get a one seed, 13 to one to get a two seed.
33:29
If you think they win the division, why wouldn't you put a little sprinkle on them to get a one seed or a two seed?
33:33
But you brought up, and I had, I have this number in my notes, another terrific way that you can bet them. Yeah. This was, uh...
33:40
I mean, look, uh, uh, you shop around in all these different shops, and DraftKings always has a d- million different ways to make these bets. [laughs] They've got so many more than everyone else. So many, yeah.
33:48
[laughs] It's crazy. Um- It's too, it's too many, 'cause you're like, "Oh, I'll take a little of that. I'll take a piece of that." It's like going to a buffet. Yeah, it's, uh, it's some of it.
33:54
And honestly, the, we get a little lazy as bettors because with all the options out there, you should not...
33:58
Like I, Joe, if I were you, if I was strong on the Red Sox, I think I'd start building with, okay, for some of the bet over their win totals, it's gonna be my biggest bet. Right.
34:07
Then I'm gonna ladder up a little bit and go to this market that we're talking about, and that's just to finish top two in the division. 'Cause as you've outlined before, it's a ve- it's still a very tough division.
34:15
Even though you think there's value in that price, there's still some good teams there, specifically the Yankees you're worried about. Okay, but then you play the plus 140 for them to finish top two.
34:24
Then you can play the division price. You can, uh, keep in mind, uh, win all three of these bets. Right. You are live where all three of those could come home, and then you could go up further from there if you want.
34:32
And the 11 to one and 13 to one- Yeah... for the top two seeds. I mean, there's just endless possibilities on how you can bet this. More of it up next. It's the Numbers Game. Joe Serrao, Kelly Bedlam.
34:48
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35:15
The Numbers Game continues with me, Joe Serrao, taking you through your Friday morning, this February 21st edition of the program.
35:23
And now, taking you back to the progressive guest line as we continue our MLB futures talk with my friend, former MLB catcher, you catch him now on MLB Network, Anthony Recker joining the show. Reck, how are you, man?
35:36
I'm doing great, Joe. How are you? Now that you're on the show, I'm fantastic. I always love getting to chop it up, and baseball season is right around the corner.
35:44
We had some spring training action yesterday, Cubs and Dodgers. Opening day just over a month away. Reck, I can't wait to get into some of these futures markets.
35:53
So let's start with the American League East, because I think this division is mispriced. You've got the Yankees, understandably so as the favorites, plus 110.
36:02
But then you've got Baltimore at a little less than three to one behind them, and the Red Sox currently the third shot at plus 425. Reck, uh, tell me if you think I'm wrong here.
36:13
I don't love the off-season the Orioles have had. I think the Red Sox should certainly be more of a favorite than Baltimore. I personally like them to win the division plus 425.
36:22
What do you think about the AL East, and is this Red Sox-Yankees rivalry gonna be back this year? The Red Sox-Yankees rivalry will be back in full force.
36:31
Um, I couldn't agree with you more about really disliking the Orioles' off-season. Um, unfortunately, they just were not able to add, um, you know, the type of quality arms that they needed in that starting rotation.
36:46
I know they added a little bit to the bullpen, but I'm not sure they're gonna have enough from a starting rotation standpoint to fill the innings that they're gonna need.
36:52
I mean, a, a huge loss in Corbin Burnes, obviously. Um, and what did they replace it with? I mean, uh, Charlie Morton? Like, I love Charlie. He's a,
37:01
a dude is, uh, I mean, he's outliving Father Time right now- [laughs]... it seems like. But at some point, that cannot be your solution. And so they, they've got to drop, in my opinion.
37:10
They didn't even win, they didn't even win the, they didn't even win the division last year.
37:13
So to me, when I look at that- I, I look at the Yankees and the Red Sox kinda neck and neck, and if you're getting that money, uh, you know, that kinda, that kinda money on the Red Sox, absolutely.
37:22
With what they've done with their rotation, Garrett Crochet, huge add. Walker Buehler, love what he brings to the table from a competitiveness, competitiveness standpoint.
37:32
What he gave, obviously, the Dodgers down the stretch run last year, that's the type of performance that we've come to expect from Walker Buehler, and he's done that in the playoffs over and over and over again.
37:42
And with the way that they've, you know, filled out this lineup now with Alex Bregman joining what was a really good lineup with, with young guys in Will Abreu and Sedain Raphaela, and Connor Wong's been great behind the plate, uh, you know, offensively at least.
37:55
They've got... And with, with a healthy Tristan Casas, which, uh, we didn't even... we barely even saw him last year, if at all.
38:01
I mean, this, this is the type of lineup and starting rotation that has a lot of great pieces, and what that has done is it, it's allowed them to move guys like Garrett Whitlock to the bullpen to go with some of the acquisitions they made in Liam Hendriks.
38:14
Uh, I mean, uh, Roaldis Chapman seems to be another one of those guys who is outliving Father Time, just kinda keeps going, and they've got some other really nice pieces back there, and they'll be able to fill some of those spaces.
38:24
And I didn't even mention some of the great top prospects that they've got coming through their organization right now.
38:30
They made the trade and got Vaughn Grissom, we know that, but Roman Anthony, one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball, he's ready to make an impact, and they have more on the way.
38:39
This team is built, uh, with a lot of depth, a lot of youth, and a lot of experience. Those are all those championship factors that we talked about.
38:48
I, I see this team, you know, whether they win the division or not, they've got a really good shot at making a lot of noise, and in doing so, obviously giving the Yankees a, a run for their money.
38:58
Well, I'll tell you what, Rick, I mean, if you look at DraftKings, there are so many ways to bet them right now. I'm curious if any of these stand out to you, which ones you might be interested in.
39:07
So I mentioned to win the division, they're plus 425. There's also a top two market. So you and I are pretty low on Baltimore. For the Red Sox to finish top two in the American League East, you can get plus 140 on that.
39:19
And then here's where things get interesting. If, if you think, like myself, they're gonna win the division, then I'd imagine you think they're gonna get either a one or a two seed.
39:28
I don't know if anyone from the AL Central, if that division winner's gonna have a better record than the AL East division winner. So here they are, one seed, 11 to 1, two seed, 13 to 1.
39:38
You could put a little sprinkle on both of those. A- any of the odds that I just threw out there stand out to you in a, in a significant fashion? I mean, top two makes a lot of sense.
39:49
That's gonna be a highly competitive division. Um, I actually do expect the Rays to be better than they were last year. They, they- Oh... they're getting some, some pitching back.
39:58
I, I think that team offensively has a chance to kinda shine a little bit in that, uh, ballpark that they're gonna be in this year, Steinbrenner Field.
40:06
Uh, uh, it's gonna be a better pos- you know, uh, home run, you know, pa- ballpark for them, and they got some guys in that lineup with some juice. I could see them making a run.
40:15
I don't necessarily see them winning the division, but you never know with them and the way that they're capable of, of, of surprising us. They're, they're always capable of it.
40:22
Um, so I kinda hesitate for that top two, but I would say, I mean, certainly division is, is right there for the Red Sox.
40:30
And, and if you're talking about, you know, a one or a two seed, I mean, if you think they can get obviously to that division, nothing wrong with sprinkling a little bit of, uh, you know, on, on that one seed because, I mean, who's gonna come out of the AL West?
40:41
Uh, I mean, is it gonna be the, the Astros? I don't know. Is it gonna be the Rangers? I don't know. Is it gonna be the A's? I don't know. Like, I have no idea who's coming out of there. They're not gonna have...
40:50
They're not gonna be a one seed, and I would certainly say nobody in the AL Central. I think, I think the Guardians took a step back, and I don't think anyone's really ready to overtake them by leaps and bounds.
41:00
So your 100 game winner in the AL is coming out of the AL East. There might even be two teams, and so it's really about whoever wins that division is taking the number one. So that's, that's where I would go right away.
41:11
Yeah, I'm with you 1000%. I struggle to find a bonafide 90 game winner in the AL Central or the AL West. I could see, you know, 88 getting the job done in each of those divisions.
41:21
How about a division that could have three 90 game winners? Probably won't, but it could. The NL East, this one is wide open.
41:27
You've got Atlanta plus 110 as the favorites, Philly plus 215, and then our Mets plus 240, the third shot on the board. Are you leaning in any one direction of those three teams?
41:39
And then with respect to our Mets, 90 and a half wins the total, do you think they go over that? Look, I, I'm gonna, I'm gonna address the Mets first, 'cause I know this is near and dear to your heart- [laughs]...
41:50
and obviously my own, uh, you know, being that I, I played there for so long. Um, the Mets have as big of a scope as they had last year to me.
42:00
Last year, I could have seen them winning 77 games, and I could have seen them winning 90 games.
42:05
Obviously, they had a great season, and they ended up, you know, finishing well above what, what most people expected in the regular season. Um, I thought they did a tremendous job last year.
42:16
They found great pitching, um, that offense really produced, and it was really just a matter of that bullpen kinda letting them down at times and certainly throughout the course of, of the postseason, uh, as to why they didn't go any further.
42:28
I still think they have too many question marks in the rotation for me to feel good about betting. What do you, what do you say? 90 and a half wins? 90 and a half, yep. I can't...
42:38
I, I, I don't feel good about that prediction. I could still see this team struggling from a starting rotation standpoint and ending up in that mid-80s, you know, win total.
42:50
I think that offense, obviously with the addition of Juan Soto, um, bringing back pretty much everybody else, uh, including, uh, Pete Alonso, they are in a position right now to, to score some runs. It's, it's...
43:01
Th- that's not a question. Is this rotation built to withstand 162 games? I'm not sure. They do have some good youth and some good, you know, some guys coming up in, in Sprow.
43:13
Even, I mean, a guy like Matt Allen could come out of nowhere with his age now. I know he's been injured for, uh, you know, many, you know, several years now. They, they have some arms coming up.
43:22
Are they ready to make an impact and fill the gaps that could be there with already an injury to Frankie Montas? Not that I was expecting a lot out of him.
43:30
Um, but that bullpen doesn't scream Consistency yet to me either. I love the addition of Minter, and that's gonna help a lot. Um, I think they're definitely better equipped to handle the bullpen than they were last year.
43:42
They, they look better to me, uh, on paper from that perspective, but that rotation just gives me a little bit too much pause to say that this is a guaranteed 90-game winner.
43:52
Then again, that pl- plus two, uh, plus two for... Oh, that was, that was to win the division. Yes. So I, I can't even go there. Um, but yeah, I, I don't know about that 90 and a half. That, that doesn't do it for me.
44:01
Now let's get to the division. I, I think, I think Philly and New York are both being undervalued a little bit here. I mean, I love Atlanta.
44:08
I still think they have everything that they need, and if they get, if, big if, if they get a healthy Strider who can contribute, you know, let's say based off of what he gave you last year, which was, you know, obviously he was out pretty much the entire season.
44:22
Um, if he can get to 120 maybe, maybe close to 150 innings, I don't expect to get that from him. Um, and I, I don't think that they should push him for that.
44:30
They still have enough depth of a rotation to where they can be a force, um, on the mound, and obviously we know Philly's rotation is very good. You go to the bullpens, Atlanta's lost a couple of pieces.
44:41
I, I don't, I don't love their bullpen right now. I actually lean more towards Philly and their bullpen. Um, and then offensively, I think all these teams are positioned to do great things offensively.
44:51
I would say of the teams with the most upside, certainly New York and Atlanta fill that, that, those roles to me. I actually think Philly is a little bit overvalued offensively. They're aging. Wow.
45:02
They're getting, you know... I, I don't know that they're gonna get the level of production that they've gotten out of guys like J.T. Realmuto, um, you know, certainly from Kyle Schwarber, uh, from, from Castellanos.
45:13
I don't know that that's all gonna be there.
45:15
So I tend to lean towards, uh, you know, the Mets and probably Philly, you know, when it co- I'm sorry, Atlanta and Philly or, and the Mets when it comes to their, their lineup, and then as far as where we go with the division, I, I guess...
45:29
I mean, look, it's a toss-up. Uh, so I'm gonna go with the money, and I'm gonna say I like Philly as an overall package, and if they're close to, what do you say, plus 215? Yep.
45:38
So to me, that screams the most value, but the Mets
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