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Feb 24, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 24, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 24, 2025
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33:41
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
And that's the name of the sushi restaurant, and that's how you get there. Oh. [laughs] Good Monday morning to you.
0:14
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the eSports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander back in the fold. Kelly Biblin alongside.
0:26
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing, man? Doing great. How are you? I'm good. Uh, let me thank, uh, Joe Serallo for being here for, uh, two weeks. Yeah.
0:34
Uh, were you able to make direct eye contact with him at this distance? Uh, he's, he's, he's too beautiful, it just hurts to look at him. He's like the sun, just to look at him directly. You might melt. Exactly, yeah.
0:44
How was he able to, uh, host this show while also playing at, in Delray at the, uh, same time? Would he fly back and forth in big time tennis? Is that where Taylor was at? Yeah. I didn't even realize that. No.
0:54
DBO pulling in big names these days. Explains why he, uh, he lost to, uh, Foki- Djokovic, Fokinna in the semis. He was tired. Well, he, he, he owns Delray Beach, right? He d- yeah.
1:03
Th- no, that is a big get for Delray, you're right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. To have Taylor Fritz there. Yeah. Um, well, uh, I'm back, and we got a great show. Thanks to Kelly Biblin's, uh, epic producing here.
1:12
Uh, Todd Wishnev at the end of the show, baby. I might be responsible for that one. Can't wait to talk to Toddy.
1:18
Uh, Megapod co-host, of course, the great Todd Wishnev, and the, uh, co-star of the Showtime docuseries Action. Todd will be here to talk college basketball.
1:26
He is on quite the heater in in-game betting in college basketball. But I just wanna get a heat check from him as we are now, what is it, three weeks, three weeks before Selection Sunday? Yeah.
1:37
Uh, his thoughts on who can actually win this whole thing in college basketball, who can win the title, sleepers, uh, teams that really have no shot in his opinion, though others think they do.
1:49
Uh, Wes Reynolds coming off a golf runner-up performance. God, does he stink at golf betting. Terrible. He's awful. Uh, you been hitting that bracket yet? Get it home, Wes.
1:57
Uh, Wes Reynolds will join us to talk golf and college basketball as well. We'll talk NBA awards. Carl Sack will join us to talk National Basketball Association. And I will, uh, start the show with a couple things.
2:07
I will do a s- a Major League Baseball season win total coming up.
2:11
The same segment that, uh, gave you the Texas Rangers over two years ago, when they ended up soaring over and winning the World Series, and then the last year, the Padres soaring over.
2:21
I have my favorite season win total of the year coming up, and it is an under. Which, which you have not discussed before, right? I have not discussed it before. Okay. No. That was a- No...
2:30
that was a Kelly question when he sent it over. That's all it is. I was like, "I don't think he, we've brought this up before, but..." No. No, it's always a post-vacation thing.
2:37
Uh, by the way, that sushi thing I do has also now become a tradition unlike any other when I get back from vacation. Mid-sentence- That's right [laughs]... kind of thing.
2:43
Yeah, you guys turn off the mic, I was talking about it. [laughs] All right, can we start though, we're back from vacation here. Uh, I wanna start with the college basketball formula. Are we allowed to do that?
2:52
Let's do it. All right, so this is a tried and true tradition here on A Numbers Game. Uh, everybody does college basketball formulas now. Yeah. Have you noticed this, Kelly? Yes, I have.
3:01
Uh, have you noticed that we were the first to do it? I think you noticed that as well.
3:05
Um, I'm gonna say this, this, for those who are listening for the first time on SiriusXM 158, 'cause I wanna always go back to sort of, if you're listening for the first time, this is, we've been doing this throughout the course of A Numbers Game, before that, the Beating the Book podcast, before that, the Betting Dork podcast.
3:22
Essentially, what the point of this is, is to sort of guide you towards making proper futures bets to win it all in college basketball, and to steer you away from the notion that this March Madness of ours, this great American tradition, ends up being this upset-filled thing.
3:41
It is, but just for the first weekend. That's the thing, right? Our image of, uh, Jim Valvano going around and hugging all his players in 1983 is not actually a thing. It was back then.
3:53
It isn't now, because the chalk ends up rising. It goes Chalk McChalkerson when it gets to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
3:59
And so, when trying to identify a potential champion, here are the sort of param- here are the criteria that has been met for decades now. We have six categories.
4:09
Let me just review them again for the first time for some. Uh, last 34 champs, Kelly, the last 34 have had more assists than turnovers. That makes sense, right? Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty good. That helps. That helps.
4:19
It helps to win basketball games. [laughs] It does help. [laughs] Uh, 32 of the last 34 champs had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience. Oh, look, there's two exceptions.
4:29
32 of the last 34 had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience prior to the year they won this. I know a lot of people are like, "Wait a minute, he's in the Sweet 16 now, on the way there." Yeah, it doesn't count this year.
4:39
I'm saying in prior years. The exceptions, 2014 UConn Huskies, Kevin Ollie did not have any Sweet 16 experience before the Huskies won that year.
4:49
And couple years ago, not a couple years ago, but last year, well, no, yeah, that is two years ago, 2023 when Dan Hurley won with UConn, he did not have any prior Sweet 16 coaching experience.
5:01
So those are the two exceptions to that. 28 of the last 29 champs went in the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI.
5:10
I know we don't really use RPI anymore, but that's how far back this goes. Uh, hold that thought.
5:14
We'll get to, uh, a few teams this year that, that, uh, pr- that e- that excludes from being part of this formula or qualifying anyway. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule.
5:26
That comes into play sometimes, particularly for teams out west. 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.
5:35
The only exception, Kelly, the 2014 UConn Huskies, the Shabazz Napier-led 2014 UConn Huskies, who are the exception to so many rules. Yeah.
5:44
And then, uh, this last one, I think this is actually 20, yeah, this is also 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The only exception here, the 2021 Baylor Bears.
5:59
The Baylor Bears were an exception to this one as well.
6:02
By the way, the, uh, th- the three teams, the three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI, that exception was the UConn Huskies from 2014 as well So we have, uh, so the UConn Huskies of 2014 were the exceptions in the three of these, and then the only other ones were Hurley as a, as hadn't been a Sweet 16 coach in 2023, and Baylor in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22nd, uh, back in 2021.
6:26
So those are the only other exceptions to this.
6:28
So it then begs the question, who right now, three weeks before Selection Sunday, who qualifies as we post up the odds, by the way, right now, Auburn is your short shot just by a tick shorter than Duke.
6:40
Auburn's plus 360, Duke plus 370, and then it's Houston eight to one, Florida plus 850. Bama leads the double digit parade at 12 to one. Who qualifies? Auburn qualifies. Three teams qualify at this very moment.
6:55
Auburn qualifies. Uh, Bruce Pearl, no surprise to, uh, those who have been following college basketball intently this year that Auburn is the number one qualifier, as is Duke. No surprise there.
7:06
Auburn, by the way, first in adjusted offensive efficiency, uh, at KenPom, Duke second, and also fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. They are the two easy-peasy ones that get through easily.
7:19
Uh, and yes, Jon Scheyer did coach to the Elite Eight last year, in case you were wondering about that.
7:24
Uh, Bruce Pearl, by the way, Sweet 16 at Milwaukee, Sweet 16 twice, and an Elite Eight at Tennessee, a Final Four at Auburn. Remember that team that somehow lost to Virginia?
7:34
I think that was the Kyle Guy game, where Kyle Guy got fouled to beat Auburn and hit three free throws.
7:40
Um, and the only other team that qualifies beyond Auburn and Duke right now at this moment, and this is subject to change, is Houston.
7:49
The Houston Cougars right now, seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, third in adjusted defensive efficiency.
7:55
Uh, Kelvin Sampson, of course, has been to, uh, just a myriad of, uh, Sweet 16s, Elite Eights, Final Four along the way as well, both at Oklahoma and at Houston.
8:05
Um, Houston's bugaboo up until this weekend was that they had not beaten three teams, or th- had three wins, I should say more accurately, in the top 10% of RPI, but they beat Iowa State, who was without, uh, two of their b- their top two scorers.
8:20
So Houston now qualifies for the top of this as well. So it's Auburn, Duke, and Houston. Now you ask yourself, "Okay, that's it? Those are the only three teams that can win this tournament according to this formula?"
8:33
Well, at the very moment, yes. But as I said, subject to change for some teams. Iowa State barely misses. Iowa State right now, 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, ninth adjusted D.
8:48
Um, so they are really the, the team that is closest really to being in there, along with, by the way, uh, Arizona, who's 19th and 18th.
8:59
They qualify in both the KenPom categories, adjusted offense and adjusted defense, but they've only beaten Texas Tech and Iowa State, top 10% of RPI. They still do play Iowa State again and Kansas.
9:12
So they can play themselves in. Wait, who was that? That's Arizona. Arizona, okay. So Iowa State and Arizona are the two teams closest to joining Auburn, Duke, and Houston.
9:23
Now, if you're asking yourself, "What about Florida?" [laughs] Well- I'm sitting over here looking through the other teams. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
9:29
Florida, the only, the issue with Florida, and they can't get over, like un- unlike Iowa State and Arizona, which can actually play themselves into this, Todd Golden has never coached in the Sweet 16 before.
9:38
So if you believe in that, and again, there's been two exceptions, right? Kevin Ollie in 2014, Danny Hurley in 2023.
9:45
Todd Golden has never coached in the Sweet 16 before, so that's why Florida doesn't qualify, 'cause they're fourth and seventh, adjusted offense, adjusted defense. Right.
9:53
Maryland, 17th and 20th at KenPom, offense, defense respectively. Kevin Willard has never coached in a Sweet 16. That's why they don't qualify and can't.
10:03
And there's a host of other teams, Texas Tech, uh, Grant McCasland has never coached in a Sweet 16. Michigan State is very close, by the way, and Michigan State, of course, with, uh, Tom Izzo. Has he been there?
10:15
[laughs] A couple times. Uh, Izzo, by the way, a champ, a runner-up, six Final Fours, two Elite Eights, five Sweet 16s. Yeah, not bad. Yeah. So what you got, Bama, I'm just over on KenPom.
10:28
So Bama outside because of the defensive rating, right? Well, let me go through these systematically. Oh, okay. So, so Michigan State, 23rd and 12th.
10:35
So Michigan, so if Iowa State and Arizona are the closest to joining Auburn, Duke, and Houston, Michigan State's right behind them as well, right, 23rd and 12th. Um, Bama, you're, what you were saying is right. Mm.
10:48
Bama, there, there's a couple teams here. Bama and Tennessee, right? Yeah, yeah. Bama's third adjusted offense, but they're 47th in adjusted D.
10:56
So you can't even, like, get to Nate Oats and crew for, to b- to get qualified for this. Same with Tennessee at this point, 'cause Tennessee's 29th. That's tight, though. Tw- closer. 29th in offense, first in defense.
11:09
First in D. Yeah. But the problem is if you, I mean, if you can't put the bas- you can't put the ball in the basket, you're going to, it's, it's trouble. Mm-hmm. You can't win six games in a row in a tournament.
11:19
Um, Louisville, Pat Kelsey has never coached in a Sweet 16. Clemson is 16th and 26th. Michigan is 26th and 23rd with Dusty May, who of course famously got to the Final Four at FAU. Yeah. Great call by Will Hill.
11:31
Who, who? So it's Auburn, Duke, Houston, with Iowa State, Arizona, and Michigan State the closest on the outside looking in. We'll update this every Monday.
11:40
By the way, shout out to, uh, NJNY on Twitter for doing his own thing on this as well. Yeah. Keeping himself updated and keeping the folks on Twitter updated on this.
11:47
Coming back, Major League Baseball season win total next on the Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on a Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Skill Alexander, Kelly Billings. This is a Numbers Game. Todd Wischnev standing by. Oh, can't wait. We got tweets of beating the book.
12:12
JoeC714, "Glad you're back. You were missed." Thank you very much, Joe. Matt- F, sports better X. Kelly's a pro.
12:20
Absolutely no concern on his face while John is howling laughing saying, "You thought you booked John Fanta a couple weeks ago?"
12:26
[laughs] Uh, listen, I, I didn't even tell that story right, 'cause shout out to John Martin who ended up staying on with us. Oh.
12:32
'Cause o- once he said his name, I had realized what had happened, or like, or what something had must have happened. I'm telling you, this should be a recurring bit on the show. He ended up staying on.
12:40
He did a great college basketball segment. He went 5 and 0 that night. He gave out five bets and went 5 and 0. Not supposed to be there. [laughs] Not supposed to be there. JasonH11, "Hello, Mr. Alexander.
12:49
I'm Kelly's neighbor. Can you ask him to stop the weight loss? All the women beating down his door are keeping me up all night. Haven't had a good night's sleep in months. Help." [laughs] Prime Time- Man, really?...
12:59
Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo. Hey, man. What's all this welcome back gibberish? Were you off the air or something last week and you ruptured your Achilles? Why have I not heard about this before?"
13:08
[laughs] "Do tell, or better yet, if Wishnev has any inside info on it." Yeah, he wanted the tennis balls. That's all he cared about. CSpackler, "I know what it felt like two days after Achilles surgery.
13:18
You are one tough son of apparently a great father." Uh, yeah, man. No, the Achilles, it was fine to do the show. I just couldn't breathe, but the leg was cool. I mean, it wasn't cool, but you know what I mean. Sean...
13:29
B- by the way, I, the first time I did it, I did a Love Zone, four hours freshly ruptured. Oh, really? He goes numb. The, the OG Love Zone. The OG Love Zone. That's what, that's what threw me off at first.
13:39
SeanFoxPlays, "Okay, why all the love for blocks in Defensive Player of the Year? I think steals is a better category, as it actually guarantees you get the possession.
13:46
If you take the leaders for steals and blocks, your Defensive Player of the Year should be Daniels or SGA." I'm with you on SGA. DerbyDayDay, "I was sweating with Wes yesterday, but had to hedge Pot Jeter.
13:57
All-time bad beat, but the show goes on. #70to1" Wow, he had him 70 to 1. Chris Hartman, "Gil, tell Fez to step aside. Matt Brown is the Luck Box champ of 2025. Two Sundays, two miracles. Daytona and Mexico Open.
14:10
Yes, I'm bitter. Had Sinder leading with, uh, one and a half miles left and Pot Jeter." LosVegas514, "Yo, welcome back. RIP to the great songstress Roberta Flack." Oh, Roberta Flack died. Oh, no.
14:24
What's your favorite Roberta Flack song? I, I don't know. [laughs] You know them. Killing Me Softly, that's Roberta Flack. Oh, really? You probably know it as the Fugees, thinking they, it was their original.
14:33
No, it's Roberta Flack. I mean, I, I definitely know that version better, yeah. Donny Hathaway duets. Wow. From DC, by the way, Roberta Flack. DGen Southern Gent, "Welcome back, Gil.
14:41
Congratulations to Kelly on the weight loss. But as much as he enjoyed being called your little friend, please don't call Hardwood Handicappers Kelly and JBT's little show. First time I think I've seen JBT angry."
14:50
Who called it a little show? I don't know. I don't know what, I don't know what that's from. Oh, wow. Norman Vegas, "Wembanyama biggest sports story while you were away?
14:57
Let's not forget the sports and political intersection of the incredible US versus Canada hockey games during the Four Nations Face-off. So much better than any All-Star Game. Yes, I mean you, NBA."
15:07
Now, the NBA can eat it with their All-Star Game. Yeah, Four Nations was fun, man. It was great. That was fun. Players cared. Yeah. And finally, Jesse Welch. Not finally, but we'll stop here.
15:16
Jesse Welch, "I think an important part of what makes Wes so good at golf handicapping was glanced over, and it's his research and knowledge of these courses.
15:23
That's what leads him to being able to pick and choose which stat categories to hone in on." Yes, you're absolutely correct, Jesse. Uh, we probably didn't make that clear enough.
15:30
Ladies and gentlemen, he's the star of the Megapod, the Beating the Book Megapod, and also one of the stars of the Showtime docuseries Action, which followed, uh, gamblers here in Las Vegas on Showtime, uh, about five years ago.
15:43
You can follow him on Twitter @TWishnev. He is a great college basketball bettor. It's Todd Wishnev, everybody, from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
15:52
How you doing, Toddy? I was doing great due to my s- recent 10-day 79 and 38 heater in college basketball. Ooh. But then I was told to come on here at 11:25, and now it's 11:34.
16:05
[laughs] And I had to listen to tweets about Roberta Flack. So I'm not exactly in the best mood after I was in a great mood just nine minutes ago. Well, we're off to a roaring start. Uh- Yeah... you, that's okay.
16:16
We'll make it up to you. You can stay for a second segment. How about that? There, it's fair. Um, Todd, let me ask you a question.
16:21
Th- you are on a recent, you are a college basketball in-game bettor, and you are on a heater. How can people be a part of this? Can they be a part of this? Do you get around to adding people? Okay.
16:34
I added prior to this year about 400 people to my WhatsApp list where I, during the commercials, I try to get the in-game bets out real quick.
16:44
Uh, contrary to what Mike Palm said on Follow the Money, I never charged for the service. I considered charging. I decided not to.
16:51
All I said to people is, "If you make money, you can always tip me," and some people have been nice enough to tip. Um, it's on, it's a WhatsApp group, and yeah, you don't always get the number that I get.
17:01
Sometimes you get better, sometimes you get worse, depending on, you know, whether you can get it at the commercial or whether they, you know, hit a three-pointer right out of the, the break, or they miss three shots out of the break.
17:09
But I mean, you, you, you know. You get all the updates all the time. You see how it works. So anyways, um, I forgot what the question was. Anyway, uh, [laughs] there you go. So they can go to TWishnev, your Twitter?
17:20
Oh, yeah, so... Oh, so y- your question was how do people g- Yes. So basically, people have asked to be on it, but it's just a pain in the neck to get everybody entered into the thing, so I haven't done it this year.
17:29
But if you send me a, uh, private message on, um, [clicks tongue] a DM on Twitter @TWishnev, the next time I start adding people again, I'll, I'll put people on. You'll just have to put WhatsApp on your, uh, phone.
17:41
[notification sound] Todd, did you hear Roberta Flack passed away? Just curious. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Let's tip Chad. Um, uh, okay. Let's get that... By the way, Todd also w- won the Megapod this year.
17:50
He had the best record on the Megapod, three bets a week. Uh, also some fabrications on air about how somebody faded your picks to glory, whatever. What other kind of nonsense people are making up on air here?
18:00
Mike Palm told the story about- Yeah... some janitor who supposedly went opposite- Shut up... my best bets- Yeah... on Megapod, but we don't do best bets on the Megapod, so I just looked.
18:09
First of all, I was 31 and 23 on the Megapod, and if you just take the number, the first pick that I had, I was like In all 18, I think it was nine and nine, and nine of them were totals anyways, so there's no way he could have been 10 and two.
18:22
That's right. The whole thing is ridiculous. The whole thing is ridiculous. But anyways. Okay.
18:25
What- So now in, uh, while you in-game bet, and again, Todd does his in-game stuff, he doesn't do a whole lot of pre-flopping, but he does obviously glean a lot about college basketball while doing it.
18:36
By the way, you may remember the mega pod, which we did for, uh, March Madness. Uh, we do it every year with Will Hill and Todd.
18:42
But two years ago, Will had FAU going to the Final Four, Todd had Michigan State and San Diego State in the finals. No, not Michigan State. Oh, no. Pardon me. UConn and San Diego State- UConn and San Diego State...
18:52
in the final game, and it almost cost me a million dollars. That was a great story. That was, well, that was a whole 'nother story. Right, you had Michigan State going far, though, didn't you?
18:59
I had Michigan State going- Yeah... but they, they didn't make it to the Final Four. It was- Right... it was San Diego State against UConn, which was the final game. Correct. Okay.
19:06
So let me just ask you some broad questions.
19:08
Let's start with, I just did the formula, the first update of the formula that I've had all these years, and right now at this moment, and this is subject to change, right now at this moment, the only three teams that qualify to win it all, and this is almost without exception over the last three decades plus, um, it is Duke, it is Arizona...
19:27
Excuse me. Let me start again. It is Auburn [laughs], it is Duke, and it is Houston.
19:31
Auburn, Duke, and Houston are the three teams that currently qualify, with, um, the teams that are just on the outside looking in being Iowa State, Michigan State, and Arizona. Now, a lot of...
19:45
There are few teams that get disqualified because one of the parameters is a guy hasn't coached in the Sweet 16 before, Florida chief among them. Um, what is, if I said to you right now, "Where's the bet to win it all?"
19:58
If I forced you, Todd Wisniew, you must make a bet given the current odds on a team to win it all, bracket unseen, where's your bet? I like Florida. I like Florida. I think they're really, really talented.
20:12
Um, and you know, I have concerns. I mean, Duke, they haven't really played that many teams, you know, since, because ACC is so weak, so I have some concerns about it.
20:21
I like Houston, as always, and Houston's shooting the ball a lot better this year. They're number seven on offense this year. Typically, they, they can have problems shooting.
20:29
But I, I like Houston obviously a lot as well. But I just feel like Florida just seems a little more loaded than, than everybody else. But I, I didn't bet any of the top teams' futures this year.
20:40
You know, I don't bet a lot of futures in general, but I did bet UConn 25 to 1 in December, uh, the two years ago, and 11 to 1 in January last year.
20:48
And, um, just the only reason I did those is 'cause I just felt UConn was the best team by far both of those last two years, in my opinion, and that's why I bet those futures.
20:59
And then this year I didn't bet any futures except, like, long shot ones that Stevie Fezzik told me not to bet. Um, but I don't care what he says. And, um, I, uh, bet them if you wanna know what those ones are, you know?
21:11
He's gonna say, "Oh, don't talk about your Dumbo VCU." Whatever, Stevie, get over it. You have a VCU to win it all bet? 400 to one. 400 to one. VCU being a sleeper of, of sleepers.
21:23
Almost comatose, that's how much of a sleeper they are. What other- St. Mary's 100 to 1 I did also, Louisville 100 to 1, and Creighton 66 to 1.
21:31
Now, I'm not saying any of those teams are gonna win it all, but if you can get to the Final 16 or the Final Eight, you can hedge and make money on them.
21:38
Any other sleepers you wanna talk about, that you think have, like, if they get the right sort of path could make some noise in a tournament? I mean, there's, there's a, there's so many teams.
21:46
I mean, you know, don't sleep on Oregon. I mean, Dana Altman is just an unbelievable NCAA tournament coach, and then yesterd- yesterday or Saturday with that unbelievable comeback at Wisconsin.
21:57
Um, so I, you know, I wouldn't sleep on them just 'cause they're always good in the tournament. Um, some other teams down the road, like maybe Clemson is a team I like. I like their coach a lot.
22:08
Um, Texas A&M can't shoot, but they are gutty and gritty, and they can go to the, uh, offensive glass. I love those gritty type teams that can win when no one can put the ball in the basket.
22:18
In the NCAA tournament, you know, we get these, uh, tons of unders, especially in the early rounds, 'cause they're playing at these unfamiliar venues, you know, so it's tough for these guys to shoot.
22:28
So the, the defensive grittiness, you know, the defense shows up all the time. The offense doesn't always. So, you know, teams like Texas A&M can be, uh, you know, interesting.
22:37
And of course, I would love to fade Arizona as every year- Well, hold that thought... 'cause I do not. Hold that thought. We'll get to this coming up.
22:43
Uh, teams like Arizona that he doesn't buy into at the top, and more sleepers. Todd Wisniew on a Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
Don't forget, top of the hour after the show, Monday Moves with Starmy Bonatony and Matt Brown.
23:06
That's from noon to 2:00 Eastern, followed by Prop Points, uh, Nick Wagon and Jeff Erickson from 2:00 to 3:00 Eastern, followed by Make It Rain with Adam Shine. That's your lineup coming up.
23:17
VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, how about some G Bank Best Bets of the Day? Can we do that as well? Let's do it. Let's do that.
23:23
All of the, uh, bets for every show, every host, every guest on, uh, the G Bank, uh, ledger each and every day. I have, uh, two tennis plays yet to come, one of which is still playable, I think. Oh, no. Wait a minute.
23:38
It's a CLV fest. I don't know if either's playable. Uh, these are all, again, vsin.com/picks. For those, uh, subscribers, they have these on the, uh, webpage. I give them out the night before.
23:49
Kimberly Birrell, uh, I had at minus 104 versus Yue Yuan. This is in Austin, Texas. Birrell is now minus 130. You cannot play that anymore.
24:00
Magdalena Frech, who I got at plus, or it's Frech, by the way, got in at plus 117 versus Elena Apanesian. Well, she is, this is in Merida now, she is now minus 104. Not as fun either. Where's that at?
24:17
That's in Merida Just wanna hear you say it again. [laughs] You want me to say it? Merida It's in Merida. Merida. It's in Merida. Um, so basically neither of those tennis plays are really still available.
24:29
Um, if they come back down, I would play them. Uh, but again, pays to subscribe, visa.com/picks for subscribers.
24:36
Uh, and also the Cleveland Guardians, which I gave out earlier, under 82 and a half season win total on them. Kelly? Yeah, uh, same sort of story here.
24:43
And Blazers, uh, played the money line last night, minus 135, when they were laying two and a half. That is out to five and a half, so, uh, as Kill says, it pays to subscribe, 'cause I put that on the website last night.
24:52
Yeah. Do you know about Merida, Mexico? Absolutely. Uh, and s- and then finally, uh, this is from, uh- Wes Reynolds...
24:58
Wes Reynolds, our buddy Wes Reynolds, who had, uh, Nebraska, Nebraskatball tonight, uh, plus one and a half points against Michigan in college hoops. Once again, uh, the GBank Best Bets, the official bank of VSiN.
25:12
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25:21
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25:32
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25:44
That's visa.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is, uh, back in the fold, Todd Wishnev.
25:52
You can follow him on Twitter at twishnev, from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Squirrel Hill, if you're scoring at home. Thank you for, uh, joining us once again, Todd, and a very handsome beard you have going. Well done.
26:03
Nothing? Okay. Thank you, Billy. Uh, all right, let's, uh, continue. [laughs] Uh, let me just throw out some teams. Louisville, live in a tournament?
26:11
I love Louisv- uh, that was one of the ones I just told you, Lou- Louisville 100 to 1. I love Louisville. I love the guard for Wisconsin, Wepner, Judge Wapner.
26:20
He is, uh, he's outstanding, that point guard, and we all know guard play goes a long way in the NCAA tournament. I love Louisville. Clemson. I like the coach, and I like the grittiness. They're just gritty.
26:34
I like that team. Xavier. Hmm. Hmm. Uh, I like that they're playing better lately. Uh, Sean Miller's a good coach. Um, you know, uh, s- I don't know if they have enough, but, hmm. Okay. So-so.
26:51
And then in your, you know, very long shot category, again, maybe not for a bet, but maybe an upset, as a giant killer in an early round, SMU? Ooh, SMU can play some ball, although Duke absolutely ripped them.
27:04
They've been killing these other teams, though, until they lost to, to Wake Forest the other day. They're not bad, SMU. You mentioned Arizona on the way out, uh, as a team that you're not buying into.
27:13
Which of the, the sort of conventional wisdom contenders are you just, like, out on? You're like, "That team is malarkey."
27:21
I can't stand Arizona because their coach is terrible, and it's the same old Arizona every year, and Caleb Love is gonna just shoot them out of a game. And, you know, I just...
27:29
I'm not an Az- I've never been an Arizona in the tournament fan. Kansas, give me a break. I'll tell you, one time I drove across country. It was a February 1st evening, a Monday night.
27:40
I was driving cross country, and it was Big Monday against Iowa State in, in the early 2000s. I think it was 2002. I got off at the exit at 7:55, and I said, "Hey, could I get into the Kansas game if I went over there?"
27:54
She's like, "Ah, it's sold out. You'll never, you'll never get into Phog Allen." I go over there, I park. The game had started five minutes before. I got a ticket for 10 bucks, and I went in there.
28:04
And let me tell you, it is an unbelievable experience. The, the sound is so loud, and the stands go straight up. Why do I tell you this story?
28:15
It's because Kansas has a huge home field, home court advantage, and this is why they always stink in the tournament. They're not as good as that home court helps them be.
28:24
And this year they're just not that good in, in general, but that home court is just so valuable, and it's why Kansas stinks always in the tournament, I think.
28:32
Um, all right, let me throw out some in this category of who you don't buy into, and I, I have a hunch on some of these, obviously. Alabama, I'm guessing you're out on them. I mean, l- Alabama's, you know... They're fun.
28:46
You know, 47th on defense, though, you know, s- they're gonna trip up somewhere. You know, if the threes aren't going in one of these NCAA tournament games, it could get real sphinctery for the Alabama Crimson Tide.
28:57
Yeah. Not enough Houston Mallette. He got hurt. That, that's the real difference, Todd. I think you know that to be the difference. Typically, most teams really, really need Pepperdine, uh, transfers.
29:06
[laughs] I can't even remember their names anymore, Todd. Just when he brings up one of these guys, I'm like, he's g- he's talking about one of the Pepperdine kids again.
29:13
Well, Wrightsell ruptured, Wrightsell, uh, ruptured his Achilles, and then, uh, Houston Mallette decided not to redshirt anymore, and now he got hurt, so anyway. Should've stayed at Pepperdine.
29:23
Anyway, um, okay, what about Tennessee? Opposite problem. Eh, I don't... Uh, s- I mean, as the... They're, they're number five in Kenpom, so they're supposed to be, like, one of the teams that can win it all.
29:37
And of course, they could win it all. Tennessee is a, a very good team, but I just... I don't know. I don't like the coach, really. Eh. Sometimes if they're not shooting well, so I, I, I'm not...
29:48
I don't love Tennessee, no. I mean, does Houston worry you in that same way, that they could just have an offensive nightmare? No, I... In the old day- uh, in the old days, Hou- that was Houston's issue.
29:58
This year they're, they're a good offensive team this year, so I'm not as con- And they shoot the three, I believe, I'm gonna tell you right now. They shoot the three-point shot number four in the country at 40.4%.
30:10
This is not your grandfather's Houston team. It may not even be your surrogate mother's Houston team. [laughs] Um, Maryland? No, nothing? I like Maryland. Um- You know, I think they can pull some upsets.
30:26
Th- they're very balanced. They can play defense. They've got some real nice offensive players.
30:30
I used to play pickup basketball with the coach Kevin Willard up at the University of Pittsburgh when his coach Ralph Willard, his dad, was the coach of the University of Pittsburgh Panthers, and he was on the team.
30:41
And let me tell you this, he wasn't that much better than me, my friend. Oh, here we go. Really wasn't. Here we go. Yes. Uh, Hubert Davis calling Todd Carolina. You ever heard of that story? That's for another day.
30:52
[laughs] That's for another day.
30:53
Uh, okay, let's get back to Florida, and let's wrap it up with this, 'cause this is the team that when I asked who you would bet on right now at current odds, eight to one on the Florida Gators.
31:02
Um, let me go to, to the coach, Todd Golden, which again, in, in my formula, it precludes them because he hasn't coached in a Sweet 16 before.
31:09
There have been two exceptions to that, Kevin Ollie in 2014, Danny Hurley in 2023, so it has been done before. There are, you know, w- we were throwing around some analytics pieces on him, how he is very...
31:21
Uh, he's an unconventional thinker. You know, they were beating a team by double digits at the end of the first half, and he decided to foul, happened to be an 84% free throw shooter, right?
31:32
Because in his analytics, or at least what's being fed to him, the opponent had a, uh, a.9 points advantage for that sequence. And so fouling would p- you know, potentially turn that.
31:45
It did, by the way, in that sequence. I guess the question is, when you are assessing teams like that, if, if all things are equal, do you care about stuff like that?
31:54
Like, do you really feel like if, if he is, if he is...
31:57
If that's the positive, where you're like, "All things being equal, that's a great thing," which is the coach on the opposite end where you're like, "I can't trust this coach in these moments"?
32:06
Oh, Arizona's coach, forget about it. I really like that Golden guy. Tommy Lloyd. And I love that whole- Yeah...
32:11
I love that whole thing where he, he gave up 1.6 points, but he was gonna come back the other way and get.9, so it would be a.7 instead of a.9.
32:19
I thought that was very, uh, clever, and so I l- I do like that coach, uh, Todd Golden from Florida, one, one of the other reasons that I like Florida, you know, for the whole thing.
32:28
Uh, other, other teams that I just don't like the coach, you mean? Yeah. Um, I mean, here's another one. I love the coach. I love Michigan State's coach obviously. Who doesn't? Um- Tom Izzo... you know what?
32:38
To- Todd refuses to say their names, by the way. [laughs] I'm noticing. I just forgot. I forgot his name. Yeah, yeah. I'm sorry. Mm-hmm. Forgot his... My bad. Um, who else do I not like?
32:47
I- I'm not thrilled with Gonzaga's coach, Mark Few, you know? Nailed it. [laughs] You are not a Mark Few guy. I know. Well done, Todd. I don't like Mark Few. [laughs] I'm sorry, Mar- Mr. Few. Yeah. But I don't love him.
33:00
[laughs] Yeah. I mean, he's good. He's a good coach, again, but in the, in the elite, elite, elite, uh, I'm not sure I... Do you- And I don't like Bruce Pearl, and I'm getting tired of Bruce Pearl, too.
33:09
I, I- You don't like Bruce Pearl as a coach... I'll tell you another reason- Okay... I don't like them afterwards, but I just don't really like him. Okay.
33:15
[laughs] Okay, I look f- I look forward to that on VSiN++, oh, that's a great one. Todd, thank you. We'll be following your in-game plays. I appreciate it, my friend. We'll see you in town couple weeks. Sounds good.
33:27
Now get back to the Roberta Flack programming [laughs] at VSiN. [laughs] Money Mo- Money Moves is next with Story and Matt. Enjoy, from VSiN, the eSports betting network. [upbeat music]
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