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Feb 25, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 25, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 25, 2025
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44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So are those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM 158. So many ways to get us. You can just choose one of them. You don't have to do all of them.
0:22
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Circa. How you doing, man? I'm doing well. It w- it would be cool if you did all of them, though. I, I would like to- At the same time...
0:29
see, yeah, multiple radio, multiple video streams going. That'd be, that would be interesting. See if it syncs up. Yeah. I'll tell you what doesn't sync up.
0:36
Uh, have I ever told you that the, uh, police, the wonderful police officers of, uh, Las Vegas decide to throw up roadblocks as, uh, some of us try to get into work?
0:44
[laughs] You had quite scra- scramble drill this morning, huh? Oh, my God. If you only knew how many laws I've broken getting here on time.
0:50
Remember when we had a guy who, uh, he just had to get to the other side of his apartment to do shows, and he couldn't get there on time? You remember that guy? Yes, [laughs] I do. I remember that. Yeah, yeah.
0:56
I remember that. [laughs] They have no idea. Uh, we have a great show. We do. Uh, I tend to say that every day, but I mean it every day, and this is no different. Paul Spohrer will join us.
1:06
You know it's baseball coming when Paul Spohrer joins us. Uh, maybe his dog will vomit in the background as has been the case in the past. I don't know. We'll talk MLB divisions with Paul Spohrer from FanGraphs.
1:17
Second hour, Dallin Cuff will join us from ESPN. He's got daddy duty today, so he can, uh, talk to us at the same time. Will Hill with all his bets.
1:25
Drew Dincic joins us as well from the, uh, Deep Dive Podcast, of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge. Not only will we talk NBA, maybe we'll try to so- uh, coax some tennis out of him, possibly.
1:36
Uh, Indian Wells podcast, hopefully with Drew next week. And a special Numbers Game investigation reveals, Kelly, that the 97th Academy Awards are this weekend. Bum, bum, bum.
1:46
And Drew might have something to say about that. Yeah, I think he's got- Okay... I think he's got a couple bets or a couple- Yeah... he's looking at.
1:51
Remember, it's not officially the Academy Awards until Ortega shows up on the, uh, show. Which will be tomorrow on the Numbers Game. Oh, tuxedo and everything. Get excited.
1:59
If he does not have his tuxedo on, do we say, "Go away. Come back another segment"? I- That dude ain't wearing a tuxedo, is he? It was last year. I mean, he did, he did that one time. It was last year.
2:07
He didn't wear pants, but we don't have to- [laughs] We don't worry about that. Just the top part. Is that what he did? No, I don't think he wore pants.
2:12
I was g- I was gonna say, I can't i- can't imagine getting dressed in a tux just to do this guest spot. But you know what? You lose the pants, it's okay.
2:19
Were you involved in the, uh, T-Wolves final 16 points of the game of, of regulation comeback yesterday, and then they beat the, uh, Thunder in overtime? Uh, I was on the over a little bit, yes. Oh, nice.
2:30
I was on the over, but, um, yeah, that game was crazy. Carl, Carl Sack had the over in that game as well. Yes, he did. Yes. He did. Yes, he did. Um, were, were you involved it, or was Carl Sack involved it?
2:41
Did you jump on Carl Sack? I had a, I had a small piece beforehand- Oh, okay... and then I added extra when I saw him. Yeah. Uh, that was pretty impressive.
2:46
Jokic, uh, messed around, and the Nuggets win over the Pacers with, uh, 18, 19, and 9. They gave him 20-- That's 19 assists, by the way. He had 20 assists at one point. They took one away from him. Oh, really?
2:58
After a jam. I didn't even see that. Yeah. The, uh, real, real, real quick on that Thunder-Timberwolves, you know what always amazes me when you get these comebacks, where, like, the Wolves had pulled guys.
3:06
Like, Anthony Edwards was sitting on the bench. Yeah. And they come back and tie [laughs] that game without him. And it's like, all right. Oh, overtime, everybody back in.
3:13
Like, it's, it's always fascinating to me, espe- you see it a lot in the NBA, but it's that team, and I get it from the team with the lead perspective, that they keep everybody out there.
3:22
But then it's the team that's down pulls everybody, and it always cracks me up when you get in the position of that. It's like, oh, it's all of a sudden a game again.
3:28
Like, "Ant, get the ice off your knees," or something like that. Like, stop the post-game treatment. Well, you gotta put 'em back in 'cause you don't wanna lose, you know, saying, "Well, those guys brought us back.
3:36
Let's, let's just leave 'em in." Right, right. So you gotta, yeah, gotta throw 'em back in the game. Um, but I just wanted to bring up the Jokic thing for a second 'cause this is his best year ever.
3:44
This is his best year ever, and he's totally not winning MVP, huh? I, I mean, I think he's still live.
3:50
I think he's still-- I-- Gil, this is gonna be the toughest thing for me and you to talk about for the next couple months because I think these cases are so, like, it, it's Jokic's best year. It is.
4:00
Like, is that, is that not enough to just give him the MVP award? Of course it is. But it's also, when you look for years of great cases, like, SGA has an amazing case to win the MVP too.
4:10
I would not wanna be, I wouldn't wanna be a voter in this. No, not in that particular category. Yeah. Are we still fighting about, uh, most improved, though? I've got Norm Powell, and you've got everybody else? Yeah.
4:19
[laughs] Okay. Yeah. We can agree about that. Hey, I'm hoping, I'm hoping Norm just misses a couple more games so I can get some plus money and get in on him, and then we can all be happy.
4:27
It'll be, it'll be amazing to me if, if Powell wins this. I, and I have him at 18 to 1. All of my near misses in the last year and a half or so, that's the one that ends up getting home, of all things. Right.
4:36
Randomly, I'm watching Norm Powell go crazy on the dubs one night, and I'm like, "I think I should bet this guy." Yeah, Cade's down to minus 145 now, flip a favorite here. Norm's at plus 135.
4:46
If y- i- if you haven't caught it, Norman Powell has missed three straight games out of the All-Star break, which is a little concerning. They're calling it with MVP. Yeah, but when he played, he scored 41. I know.
4:56
I, and there's, there, there's nothing we saw that would indicate any of this was coming. Who knows? So it's a little odd. Who knows how much is moving this, you know?
5:02
Who knows what kinds of bets are, are actually moving this market. Yeah. It's probably very little.
5:06
Uh, okay, just to give you a, uh, because we got a bunch of guests, so I just wanna get out, sort of vomit out, if you will, uh, what I, what I've been doing, what I was doing yesterday.
5:15
And this is with baseball approaching.
5:16
The beauty of baseball still, and I know we're, you know, relative- about a month away still, is that there are so many different bets you can make that it almost-- Remember last year, the only way I discovered the, uh, the monthly bets, the most wins March, April, was because I basically took a day right before the season started, and I was like, "Let me just look at all, everything baseball."
5:36
And there's hundreds of different, uh, markets you can bet into. And so yesterday I talked about, you know, the tried and true, uh, MLB season wins play.
5:43
Uh, yesterday I, uh, mentioned that my number one is the under on the Cleveland Guardians.
5:48
Um, I wasn't happy with myself because we, we ran out of time, and I was talking about how, you know, the bullpen bailed 'em out all last year, and I, I failed to mention, and of course I was r- I was gonna mention it today, and then Legasa throws it out on Twitter yesterday.
5:59
I'm like, "Ah, I was gonna, but I forgot." [laughs] But, but, you know, one of the buttressing points of that was that the, uh, the Guardians in one-run games last year Uh, 26 and 19 in extra inning games, 10 and three.
6:13
So again, that's, y- what, what we're looking for with the Guardians is what was sustainable from last year and what is not. I tend to believe that not much is.
6:21
Adam Burke will be on with us on Thursday to tell me why I'm wrong about his Cleveland Guardians. How about that for a tease? Okay. Did you know that Adam Burke was coming on Thursday? No, I had absolutely no idea. Okay.
6:30
Adam Burke told me he was coming on Thursday, so. Adam Burke told you? [laughs] Yeah. So, I guess the guests- All right, I guess someone's gotta check in with Adam Burke.
6:38
[laughs] The, the guests are now telling me when they're coming on the show, and they're bypassing Kelly.
6:42
Um- I'm sitting here, I'm like, well, I guess, like, I guess this is Gil telling me he had a conversation with Adam. No. Adam told me he's coming, I figured you'd talk to him.
6:48
I have him on my list, so, you know, it's good. So, okay, so then, so under on the Cleveland Guardians, I gave, I gave a whole bunch of reasons in my methodology how I get, got there yesterday on the show.
6:56
Just a few other things that I was looking at yesterday, and, uh, I have not pulled the trigger on these, however, but just wanted to sort of let you know what I was looking at. Uh, Stevie Fezzik loves this first one.
7:07
He does a bunch of, uh, top and bottom stuff with the Dodgers and the White Sox. The one of his that I like the best is White Sox longest losing streak over eight and a half games at minus 130.
7:20
I think Stevie got it at minus 120. Uh, White Sox, as you know, projected to be one of the worst, if not the worst, team in Major League Baseball. Last year they had losing s- now last year they lost 120 games, right?
7:31
Uh, was it 120 or 121? 121 games last year. They were 41 and 121. They had losing streaks last year of 14, 21, and 12. Now, the thing about streaks, all it takes is one to break them, obviously. Yeah.
7:46
But over eight and a half seems very low for a team that is projected conservatively to lose 100 games again. Yeah, maybe one makes a lot of sense to me, Gil. Yeah. I like it.
7:56
So, so I do, of, of all the ones that he had with the Dodgers and White Sox, 'cause I, I don't, I don't really subscribe to the top stuff as much as I do the bottom stuff, uh, in baseball.
8:05
But White Sox longest losing streak over eight and a half, I like that from Stevie. I mean, we're n- we're not talking about a White Sox team that should be all that much better, right? Right?
8:12
No, and you and I, I won't say any names, we have a listener who might be within the Chicago White Sox organization who often says hello to us, and let's just say he's not very bullish about things either.
8:25
[laughs] Is that fair? Yeah, the last couple conversations- Okay... that's for sure, yeah. [laughs] Uh, now here's one I have not, again, I didn't bet the White Sox longest losing streak.
8:32
I didn't bet this one yet either, but I think I will. This is most regular season hits.
8:37
Um, Jung-hoo Lee of the San Francisco Giants, who only played, well, uh, he only had like 140 plus at bats last year, then he hurt his shoulder in the outfield. I was watching when it happened. It was ugly.
8:49
But he ended up, you know, missing most of the season. He slots right back into center field, right into the lead off slot, you know, for the Giants.
8:56
Um, Giants may not be very good, but he is a slap hitter that is really capable of getting on base, and if you give him a full season, 30 to one for most regular season hits, I'm not saying he should be favored. I'm not.
9:09
Luis Arias should be favored, and he is. Uh, Bobby Witt is right there, and he should be, 'cause Bobby Witt gets in stretches where you're like, "Is this guy ever not gonna get a hit?" Yeah, he bat like 500 last July.
9:19
Oh, it's, it's, it's unbelievable. But Jung-hoo Lee should not be 30 to one, right? He should be way shorter than that vers- so just for a numbers play, a value play.
9:27
And again, with all team projections, with all player projections, over 162 games, there is a spectrum where everything goes against you, everything goes for you, and then everything in between.
9:38
If things break Jung-hoo Lee's way, and then some of the other contenders, let's say s- I don't know, you don't root for injuries, but things happen, right, during a season. 30 to one is a great price for that.
9:50
Then the other thing is, and this is also a, uh, sort of a Fezzik inspired one, 'cause again, he likes tops and bottoms.
9:55
I, I am, uh, uh, I am famous for saying the ever increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots in Major League Baseball. I've said that for many years now here on the show. Uh, there are...
10:06
These are all available at DraftKings, but they're available in other spots too. Number of teams to record 100 plus regular season wins, number of teams to record 100 plus regular season losses, uh, as well.
10:17
Now, these are both set at two and a half, so obviously four options. For the regular season losses, the over is two and a half minus 150, the under two and a half plus 120.
10:26
For 100%, uh, excuse me, 100 plus regular season wins, the over is plus, over two and a half is plus 220, the under two and a half is minus 280. Of those four options, the one I like the best is
10:41
over two and a half teams to have 100 plus losses at minus 150. I know there's a lot of new-ish bettors who will listen to the show and be like, "Minus 150? I don't know if I wanna lay that."
10:53
Minus 150 to me, over two and a half, uh, teams to have 100 plus losses is still a good price.
10:59
I went ahead, and this is the kind of stuff I do while I'm not watching Academy Award movies, 'cause I've seen none of those, I'm doing this kind of thing.
11:04
These are the teams with 100 plus wins and losses for the, for the last decade plus, and if we go back to like 2012, 2013, there's not many of them.
11:13
But the reason that I started talking about the, uh, ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots is because right around 2018, Kelly, then it started flourishing, f- uh, these categories.
11:23
Three teams over 100 wins, three with lo- over 100 losses. Same 2019, four and four. 2021, 'cause obviously 2020 was the, uh, was the pandemic year, three and four. Uh, four and th- four. You get the idea in 2022.
11:38
So I don't know, you got the Marlins, you got the White Sox, you got the Rockies out there. I'll bet for that at minus 150 to get those three teams or anyone else at over 100 losses. I think I will today.
11:49
Drew Dinsick is next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to a whole nother level with First Bet.
12:05
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12:14
And use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com Gill Alexander. We have tweets that beat in the book.
12:26
I always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. We've gone 45 minutes without reading tweets now. Yeah. Yeah. Had a lot to talk about with Drew. C Spackler @expert, "I refuse to bet for Jokic for MVP.
12:37
Makes no difference what he does. He will not win MVP. I'm waiting for the sad narrative for whoever the media likes better. Trophies for everyone," [laughs] says C Spackler.
12:46
[laughs] Edward LaFevour, "Hey Gil, welcome back. Are you going to Indian Wells?" Yes. "If you are, I wanna introduce you to Paula Badosa. I'm going the first weekend. Hope to see you there." I'm going the first weekend.
12:58
What, do you know Paula or something? Wow. Hello- I wa- I wa- I want that picture for the show, please... hello, my name is Paula. I'm Spanish. [laughs] Uh, Chili Gambler. I know who you are, Paul.
13:08
Chili Gambler, "Good to have you back, Gil. Hope you enjoyed the time off. While you were gone, it felt like Mirra Andreeva." These were all before we talked tennis, by the way. "It felt like Mirra Andreeva arrived.
13:16
Would you say it's official she is here in a big way after for her performance last week?" Yeah. You know, Drew and I have been talking about Mirra Andreeva on the, on the tennis pods for a couple years now.
13:26
She is, she has arrived. This was her first sort of, this was her first 1,000 win. She's absolutely on the come up. Absolutely on the come up. But it's hard to know, right? Until you see it sustained.
13:38
Um, this is from Nevada Azer. "Hey Gil, hope you enjoyed your holidays.
13:41
With Major League Baseball starting up, since the Dodgers have a super team, can we get Jeff Benson to create a prop, either yes, no, any Dodger player to win an award?
13:51
Um, MVP, Rookie of the Year, uh, other awards as well, or any Dodger versus the field. Thoughts?" I think those are great ideas. Maybe we'll run it up the flagpole, see- That's a good one... see if Jeff wants to do that.
14:01
Uh, oh, Wet Willy Colon, I'm sorry I missed this one. "Drew's thoughts on Tibs and the Knicks constantly running his guys into the ground. I believe they have four of the top five in minutes per game in the league."
14:10
This has been Tom Thibodeau's thing his entire coaching career. Mm-hmm. Like, he is known for doing this.
14:15
Um, and now i- can a case be made that that's what happens to his teams late in the season or is it just that they have lesser talent? Probably a combination of both. Uh, NCI 95 Gambler, "Welcome back from vacation.
14:27
Can you please get to the important topic of our girl Iga getting rolled at Doha? What was that? You know some of us have futures on her." Um, she has a Jelena Ostapenko problem really more than anything.
14:38
Iga Swiatek is 500 or better against every other player on the WTA tour. Every other player. Do you know what she is against Ostapenko? What? 0 and 5. Are you serious? That hamburger beats her every time. 0 and 5?
14:50
Yeah, there's no real equivalent in sports. Wow. Ostapenko's a slam winner herself. She won the French back in the day.
14:56
Um, [lip smacks] Chad Lee, "I'm always amazed how long a thought Drew can make without a run-on sentence. Drew sentence- [laughs]... over under 375 words. Any takers?" [laughs] It's, he has a flair for the language.
15:10
Yeah. No run-on sentences whatsoever. Um, okay, let's talk some, uh, NFL real quick here. Did I do justice to those tweets? I hope I did. Um, Mel Kiper with his mock draft 2.0 already. He's at 2.0 already.
15:23
Yeah, just came out this morning. He's got Abdul Carter going to the Titans number one. This is a change for him. Mm-hmm.
15:30
He's got Abdul Carter from, uh, Penn State, the old LeVar Arrington, Micah Parsons, number 11, Abdul Carter, going to Tennessee at number one.
15:38
Then he's got Cam Ward from Miami, a quarterback, going to Cleveland at number two. Then the Giants end up, per Mel Kiper's mock draft 2.0, with Travis Hunter. Then it gets interesting because Shedeur drops.
15:53
Will Campbell, offensive tackle from LSU, goes to the Patriots at four. Mason Graham, defensive tackle from Michigan, goes to the Jaguars at five.
16:01
Then Ashton Jeanty from Boise State, the number one running back off the board, goes as high as six to the Raiders- Yeah... per Mel Kiper 2.0. We're gonna draft a quarterback at six, huh?
16:12
I was w- uh, running back, yeah, I was thinking the same thing when I was typing this up. Here's the thing about Jeanty, like, and I had a bet on him to win the Heisman. I love Ashton Jeanty.
16:19
I've never thought this guy's going to be an unbelievable pro player.
16:23
I, and the other part of it, Gil, is just, like, the, it's not the, I know everybody wants to talk about, like, oh, what, what we saw from running backs last year and how much they changed teams.
16:31
Like, you know, Saquon, Derrick Henry, right? How important the running back is all of a sudden again.
16:36
And I, I think those are, those are all true, but those are all very specific examples, and I still, I'm still concerned about that at a top of a draft where these teams need so much, right?
16:45
Like, the Raiders need so much. They're not a running back away from, from being a championship team.
16:50
Now, remember, we talked about baseball, about the, uh, the chasm between the haves and the have-nots as years have gone by.
16:55
Remember, those top six picks that we were ta- just talking about, uh, in his mock draft are all three and 14 or four and 13 teams. Right.
17:03
Like, the NFL bottom is thick because the first five and 12 team to draft is at seven, and he has, Kiper does, the Jets taking Shedeur Sanders at seven. [laughs] Okay.
17:16
Which begs, then you see the rest there, Walker Warren and Simmons rounding out the top 10 to the Panthers, Saints, and Bears.
17:23
But that begs the question, if I just seize on the number seven play, we could talk about this again, but number seven means, okay, Aaron Rodgers done in New York. What is Aaron Rodgers' next team?
17:33
Do we have odds for that? Yes, we do. Um, by the way, are you, are you surprised by the Matt Stafford thing in, in LA? I'm shocked.
17:41
We, I mean, you were ta- you and I were talking a little bit abou- about it after the show yesterday. I just don't, I, like, kinda where did this come from? Like, they must be...
17:50
I, the only thing that makes sense to me is both sides must just be so off on what they were expecting for the other one to come to the table with.
17:57
You know what Todd Wright's theory, I, I don't know if Todd wanted me to say this on air, but Todd Wright, who's a frequent guest of our show, Todd Wright, who hosted All Night with Todd Wright at ESPN Radio for so many years, greatest talk sh- uh, sports talk radio host for my, in my mind, for, for, you know, of all time.
18:10
He thinks that the, that part of it, at least, I don't wanna put words into his mouth, but part of it is that Kelly Stafford has become so annoying to the Rams that that's, like, that pushed them over the edge.
18:21
I mean, there's definitely a possibility. There's definitely a possibility. I mean, to think that that's even part of it is, is, anyway, so the Ra- How much part of today's sports, right?
18:29
Like, it's, I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers doing TV hits. Like, it's stuff like this that I, I, franchises are gonna be a little uncomfortable with.
18:36
I bring up the Rams because Aaron Rodgers next team odds, the Rams are the short shot at plus 250. They have moved.
18:42
[laughs] And, and if you are the Rams, like, if you're a Rams fan or someone who's considering betting the Rams, the Rams had the ball with a chance to beat the Eagles in the snow in Philly You can't possibly think
18:55
that the Rams are better off with Aaron Rodgers than they would be with Matthew Stafford, just from a sheer football perspective. Rams are plus 250 for Rodgers. Raiders are three to one. Steelers are also three to one.
19:07
And then Colts and Titans begin at five to one and longer. You see the rest of the options there. Vikings plus 550.
19:13
Uh, if you wanted to do a Brett Favre thing, in other words, being a Packer great that ended up in a Vikings uniform. Niners plus 750. Then Browns and Giants both at 12 to one. I just... L- Let me just ask you this off.
19:27
Forget the odds for a second. What kind of team would want him- I mean, you-... at this point?
19:33
I mean, you've gotta be a team that feels like you are, I mean, a decent quarterback away from being right in the mix and- But the pr- Uh, so how can the Rams be that team, though?
19:43
The Rams must have just decided it's not gonna happen with Stafford for whatever reason, right? Yeah. Whatever the reason is, they decided it's not gonna happen with Stafford anymore. Maybe you're right.
19:52
Maybe it's the money being far apart. Would... Is that their alternative? Is that the guy they want? I, so, like, I, I actually think they're one of the few teams that does make sense.
20:01
They, they have moved to the betting favor here. It was Steelers before that. But, but if, but if he couldn't, if Aaron Rodgers couldn't make it work with the Jets, I mean, we all know how badly it went.
20:08
First of all, it was- Right... the four plays, then he ruptured his Achilles. Then last year, they stunk. He's at least two years away, and even s- and p- some people correctly argue that even his last time- Mm-hmm.
20:19
Yeah... his last year in Green Bay, he wasn't all that good. Wasn't very good. Yep. What are we hanging onto with this guy?
20:24
Well, I, I think if it's the Rams and you're talking about losing Stafford, it just becomes a little bit more of a desperation move. It's a desperation move.
20:30
But I do think the Rams, I'm like, and Sean McVay I trust with this, that they're, like any of these good teams, the problem is Aaron Rodgers is only gonna wanna go play for a good team, right?
20:39
Like, I, otherwi- Like, I think this is why I think there's as good of a chance as any that Aaron Rodgers just hangs it up, but he's only gonna wanna go play for a good team, and good teams are gonna look at what happened to him in New York and say, "Well, we can consider this guy, but we can't hand over the keys to everything like the Jets did because they ruined their entire franchise- They did...
20:57
for the next three, four, five years." Well, also, and if you're the, if you're the Raiders- So, so is Rodgers gonna play by those rules? That's the thing. But here's the thing.
21:05
If you're the Raiders, let's just go through the candidates. The Raiders, they're not gonna... He, he's not gonna be the difference between them being good or not.
21:10
Okay, he's not, but can't you see the trio of, of, uh, Pete Carroll, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers being like, "Let's run it back, old guys." Oh, so stupid. "We can do it. We can get this done." So stupid.
21:22
And then the Steelers, right? Just talking about the top three candidates. The Steelers, I mean, Russell Wilson ended up being kinda great.
21:30
I, that this is where, uh, is there that big of a difference between Russ and Rodgers? No.
21:34
And you know what I saw out of Russ last year, Gil, is a guy that came in and clear- r- realized he had to compete for a job- Yeah... and got a little bit better.
21:42
Is Aaron Rodgers g- attitude gonna work with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers? By the way, I don't know if Russell Williams, Russell Wilson's performance last year was, is sustainable to next year. Me either. Yeah, yeah.
21:51
I don't know, but that's the production you're replacing, and I don't know that A- like, I just don't... The fixation on this, just hang it up, dude.
21:59
But he, I don't think he has the m- he doesn't have the ego to hang it up. I know. I don't, I don't think so either.
22:03
There are some in- there are some interesting teams on here just 'cause I think you can cross off a bunch. Like, the Titans. The Titans. What? Like, aren't they- No. No...
22:11
they're drafting a quarterback or, and Aaron Rodgers doesn't wanna go there, so, like, that's a parlay of nos. [laughs] Like, the Vikings. The Vikings is kinda interesting in, in some weird way.
22:21
Just 'cause Darnold's gone and you're gonna bring him in for like- Yeah... a year still- Yeah... to let McCarthy come along? Okay. My, uh, Packers fans would lose their minds. Yeah. Part two. Uh, we'll come back.
22:31
Will Hill, I don't know, maybe he has some thoughts on this, and all his plays. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:45
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22:56
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23:07
Don't place your bets unprepared. Get full access today for only $9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Live from Circa.
23:20
Uh, when this gentleman, and I think I can call him a gentleman, uh, when he shows up on our television screens [clears throat] and on this show, pardon me, I get, uh, emotional when I talk about him. Yeah, man.
23:29
Sure enough. Um, we know baseball. Baseball is right around the corner. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is, uh, Paul Sporer.
23:34
You can follow him on Twitter @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R, and most prominently works at FanGraphs, though he does many things in the baseball world. Paul Sporer joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
23:44
How you doing, Paulie? Gil, I'm doing great. It's wonderful to talk with y'all. How y'all doing? We're doing great, man. Great to see you.
23:51
Um, and there's so many ways in between now and the beginning of the season, we're gonna talk about all kinds of markets. But we decided, you know, today let's just talk division by division and get your thoughts.
24:01
We'll do American League here in the first segment, National League in the second. I just wanna get a heat check, the, uh, a heat check first of all on you. The dogs are okay. Yes. Uh, the girlfriend is okay.
24:10
Not necessarily in that order. Yes. Yes? Okay. Okay. Yes. Ev- everything, everything is good. Speaking of heat check, she's sitting in front of a space heater right now. Oh, boy.
24:17
It's gonna have to go off soon 'cause we're getting warmer, but, uh, we were a sub-25 all last week, so she got to park in front of her space heater all week. But, uh, yeah, we're, we're pushing up to the 60s here.
24:28
It's gonna have to come off here in a few moments. Oh, man. Sub-25? Oh. It, it was pretty, it was pretty nightmarish.
24:34
You know, I was making sure that people understood that it wasn't just Paul cold, which doesn't take much 'cause I, I, I don't like cold weather, but it was legitimately cold here in Austin, Texas last week. Oof.
24:44
As people in other parts of the country are like, "Cry me a river." [laughs] Right. Uh, uh- Yeah... that's the thing. I know that if it's 25 here, it's just jump off a bridge awful in the Midwest and Northeast. Yes...
24:59
maybe that bad, but I get your point. Uh, let us begin with the, let's begin with the American League East, where the Yankees, of course, uh, reign supreme, and they are the short shot.
25:08
They're plus 110, followed by the Birds, the O's, the Baltimore Orioles at plus 285. These are courtesy of, uh, DraftKings.
25:17
Uh, Red Sox come in in third, uh, Rays fourth, and then one of these teams not like the other, the Blue Jays, all the way down at 15 to one.
25:23
But as far as divisions are concerned, in terms of top to bottom, the AL East and the NL Central are the most compact. Is there a bet in the American League East? I mean, if there is, it's definitely not on the Yankees.
25:35
It's not that I think they're a bad team and can't, you know, make it all the way back. It's just that I, I'm not gonna take the favorite.
25:42
I've been pretty disappointed in Mike Elias, uh, in, in what he's done this year or hasn't done, as it were.
25:48
Uh, and I'm sure you, as, you know, somebody who follows the O's, probably kind of scratching your head at some of the things where- Mm-hmm...
25:54
ownership is saying you can spend some money, and he's like, "No, I wanna do this with one hand tied behind my back," to make it look better or something. I don't get it.
26:01
Like, he wants to raise despite getting the financial availability. And I, I, I just don't understand the decision there. So, uh- Paul, who else...
26:12
Yeah, yeah, who else are you looking at, uh, on, on the AL East of just who you expect to do a little bit better than what numbers say or teams- Boston... you expect to do a little bit worse?
26:20
This Boston ball club has had a wonderful off-season to co- counteract what, uh, Baltimore's done here. Even though I still like that Baltimore team, it's rich, I don't like their pitching as much, Boston's done so well.
26:31
They went and had a wonderful off-season. They've got arguably the best system in baseball. They have too many players right now, which is a great problem to have.
26:37
It's not even really an issue because, uh, generally, uh, injuries and underperformance will crop up, and they will need these guys.
26:45
So Christian Campbell, Roman Anthony, two of the best prospects in baseball, might not break camp with the team, but they're gonna be at the ready if and when things happen to some of their guys that are a bit older and have had some injury issues.
26:55
Trevor Story, I'm kind of looking at you. Segued Rafael, gotta be looking over his shoulder with a 79 WRC plus the last two years. Roman Anthony gonna be chasing him down.
27:04
So I think the Red Sox are the bet here in the AL East if I'm going anywhere. So you, you like them for the division odds plus 425. Right. Over win total, kind of everything in that area? Absolutely.
27:13
I, I think that they're, they're a str- very strong team. The Rays, always a team that I'm gonna be looking at. You know, we talk about them all the time.
27:20
They are a team that is comfortable living in this low to mid-80s win projection, and then they kind of let variance take the, you know, take the wheel and, and, and push them over.
27:29
Basically what Jerry Dipoto said that bothered everybody, I understand why you probably shouldn't say it out loud, but it's what the Rays have been doing successfully for years. Last year, the variance went against them.
27:38
They had a lot of injuries. They had some underperformances, and things didn't work out. It's rare to see back-to-back years from the Rays not pan out. So I kind of like them a bit too.
27:46
If you're really not in on the Red Sox, you can go the Rays. But the Rays and Red Sox are the two teams that I'm looking at here, both from an over under win total and a, a potential division bet.
27:54
Yeah, and I'm with you on the skepticism with the Orioles too, because ag- And I had this long talk probably with you too last year, but also with, uh, Orioles fan Rufus Peabody, who's a better...
28:03
Who, he's like, he's okay with them, like, playing for the long term, like playing for the dynasty. And I'm like, "You've gotta try to win a Wo- Like, the object is to win." Where's the pitching, though?
28:12
Yeah, you gotta- Where's the pitching? I don't get it. I don't get what they do every year. It's like you try to, try to win a World Series. Like- Right... I don't trust them at, at the trade deadline.
28:20
I don't trust them to, to do the right thing. I- You don't wanna push too far out with things, 'cause nothing's guaranteed. You've got an amazing core of offense right now that is overflowing.
28:30
Heston Kjerstad's on the bench, for crying out loud. He'd be Pittsburgh's number three hitter, just to name a team that actually is kind of compelling, but they don't have any hitting.
28:37
Um, and what are you doing with the pitching? I do not understand why they did not re-sign Burns. I thought that made so much sense. The Crochet deal, uh, went to Boston instead of them.
28:47
I mean, the, I think they've blown a lot of opportunities here to stabilize their pitching, and I think they're gonna pay for it. All right, let's go to the AL Central. This is a, uh, fascinating division. It is.
28:56
Um, you are a Tigers fan. Let's get that out there. But, but Paul- Right... is objective on this kind of stuff.
29:01
So the Twins are the team that is slightly, um, you know, in terms of win total, above the Royals, Tigers, and Guardians. So you have the Twins at 84 and a half. You have the Royals and Tigers at 83 and a half.
29:12
You have the Guardians at 82 and a half. And you'll see the corresponding division odds are very close as well, plus 210 to three to one, all in that pocket. I- And then of course, the White Sox are the White Sox.
29:23
What do you, how do you feel about this group of four? Can you make a bet comfortably here? Can I just make a quick point that I'll take the White Sox win total over at 53 and a half?
29:31
They're not gonna be historically bad again, and I know 53 and a half isn't, but I think they can actually push for 60 some wins. They have a good farm system that's gonna start paying dividends.
29:40
I don't think they're a threat to do anything this year. I think they'll just be a standard bad team with 95 to 100 losses. But as far as the division goes, it is a four team race here. Love what my Tigers did.
29:50
I think they would've gotten an A plus plus plus if they'd have been able to bring in Bregman, but he didn't want their money.
29:55
But the Flaherty re-signing, the Glaber move, the smaller moves that they made on the, on the fringes as well, I'm really excited about that.
30:01
The Twins, I understand why they're the favorite, because obviously they had that epic collapse last year. They didn't do anything in the off-season, which is, uh,
30:09
slightly understandable because they're basically running it back with this team that was very good outside of the collapse. But they should have done something.
30:17
I don't think they should've just completely sat on their hands and not signed any Major League contracts. May- maybe they've signed one since, but for the bulk of the off-season they did not.
30:25
So I'm looking at the Royals and Guardians right now as the two teams. I understand why the Guardians are pulled back here a little bit, because they got that historically great performance out of the bullpen.
30:34
I think they're gonna be able to take some pressure off the bullpen this year, let the rotation pick up some of that slack that they've usually done in the past. But last year they had to go heavy on the bullpen.
30:43
We saw what happened in October. They were gassed. They, they simply were gassed.
30:47
I don't blame Stephen Vogt He didn't have enough starters to trust, but I think Tanner Bibee, uh, Luis Ortiz was a good pickup from them from Pittsburgh. I'm a big Gavin Williams guy, stepping it up too.
30:57
So love my Tigers, definitely, uh, can see them over that 83.5. It's not a strong bet though, that's, that's personal bias toward them.
31:05
I think the Guards or the Royals are the teams that you wanna look for if you go with the division there. Yeah, I'm, I'm low on the Guardians.
31:11
I'm going under on the Guardians, but if they are to exceed that season win total, that is the path, the one that you just described- Right...
31:17
uh, how they get there with, with starting pitching that is way better than it was last year. What about the AL West, uh, where the Astros are at the, uh, at the apex here?
31:28
Um, get the odds up here on the board with the Athletics and the Rangers. The Rangers probably looking for a bounce back season- Yeah... one would imagine, after winning the World Series two seasons ago.
31:37
Uh, how do you, how does this shake out to you? Uh, I'm very much back in, and a little spoiler alert for the NL West, I'm very ba- much back in on both of the 2023 World Series participants.
31:46
I think they had classic World Series hangovers. Um, and it's not like the Ra- uh, the D-backs were even bad. Again, we'll talk about them later, but I think the Rangers are poised to, uh, jump back up.
31:55
I really like, uh, what the Astros are doing there. The, the only thing I didn't like was, uh, trading Tucker.
32:01
I think I would've stuck with Tucker over Alvarez, but Alvarez was probably tougher to trade given his injury history. But I think if I'm making a play here, it's on the Rangers for the division.
32:11
I like the A- Athletics for the overs on the win total. I think that offense is coming together. Uh, the pitching is interesting.
32:18
I know that we need to kind of figure out what's gonna happen in the minor league park there. Is it gonna be a bandbox when the weather's hot and all that sort of stuff?
32:25
I get it, but I think that they can be upper 70s, even push for 500. So I like the A's on a win total. I like the Rangers for the division.
32:34
I do like the Astros, but they're the short shot and I, I just don't think you're getting enough of a number there.
32:38
I'd rather see them get off to like a slow start and then jump on them at that point, 'cause I do like the Astros. I think it's gonna be a Texas two-step, and the Mariners didn't, did nothing to address their hitting.
32:48
So their hitting still stinks, their pitching's still amazing. I think it's gonna be similar disappointment this year. I wanna love the Mariners. I was waiting for you to get to them. I do too.
32:57
But I just can't get there. And if, by the way, I feel the same way about the Royals too. I wanna love the Royals and I just don't trust it in the end. I think that is fair.
33:05
I think that they have a little bit more of a balanced team, and I like the Jonathan India pickup a lot for the Royals. For, for the Royals, yeah. He, he's, uh, he's a boost there.
33:13
Their outfield is still in trouble though. It is rough, yes. In Kansas City for sure. We'll get to the National League, Paul's thoughts, Paul's bets. That's on the other side. Baseball just around the corner.
33:23
It's a numbers game at Vsain, the Sports Betting Network.
33:26
[upbeat music] A numbers game on Vsain, the Sports Betting Network.
33:44
Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Kelly Bidlon on Twitter. E-Y on Kelly, B-Y-D-L-O-N. That's right.
33:55
Thought you pronounced your last name. Losing weight before our eyes. You okay over there? What are you doing? Yeah, I'm good. We, we just- Oh, just, uh, redoing some scripts over there? [laughs] We've had a busy show.
34:05
Yeah. There's shows within the show going on here today.
34:07
[laughs] If you're wondering why we haven't read as many tweets today, it's because, like, in between the breaks, just to peel back the curtain here, we've had to do a lot of reading. [laughs] You have. Yeah.
34:16
So I apologize for that. You have. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, we do have some tweets. This is from, uh, John Balduzzi. "As- At my twin girls lacrosse tournament, dads hanging out and started talking sports betting.
34:25
Topic was which sports we're best at. My response, golf, NHL, and tennis, but I'm thinking of taking grass court season off after last year. Record scratch, all blank faces." I love that.
34:36
What do, what would you say your best sports are at these, at this point? NBA. Basketball and golf, right? Yeah, NBA, golf. Okay. NBA, golf, NFL. Yeah. And the, and the re- the rest is all just pretty casual.
34:46
Pretty casual and- NFL draft... this dude I like over here I respect has a pick and maybe I'll play that too. Yeah, yeah.
34:51
Last Name Nash, "Just played Got My Mind On My Money and My Money on My Mind to officially kick off the baseball season with Spohrer coming on. Let's go."
34:59
Yeah, that's actually Mark Borchert who we have the drop of saying that, but, uh, Spohrer and Borchert, the, uh, dynamic duo. But thanks for the reminder. But thanks for the reminder. You have to text him, yeah.
35:07
[laughs] Yeah, we'll get that in there. Um, by the way, we've been slacking off on those. We gotta get those back on. I guess we haven't talked about Caleb in a while. Uh, ladies and gentlemen- No...
35:14
Paul Spohrer, once again from his lair in Austin, Texas, to talk National League divisions with us here courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Paulie? The dog- I'm great...
35:22
is, was that Charlotte was the dog that just left? Yeah, Char- Charlotte was the one. Yeah. She's still there, but, uh- But she's still there... we, we got, uh, we turned her space heater off.
35:30
Charlotte's tr- She's di- displeased. She's over the division talk, I can tell. Absolutely. She's not into it. She's over the baseball talk in general. Uh, okay.
35:37
National League East, the Braves and the Phillies, one and two. By the way, there are exacts available too, uh, uh, as well.
35:46
So i- if you had like a sense in any of the divisions one, two, there are corresponding odds as well. You can bet these divisions that way, which is often a much more interesting way to bet them rather than- Right...
35:57
just trying to pick the winner, especially since you'll have the money tied up for six months.
36:01
Um, but this is an interesting division perhaps to talk about that, 'cause the Braves are at the top, the Phillies right behind them. Some people feel the Phillies will take a, a step back this year.
36:09
I'm not sure what, how you feel about that. Really? Mets, Nationals in there as well, and then the Marlins picking up the rear. What do you think here? Marlins have the worst lineup in baseball.
36:20
Um, they, they could be under, uh, especially if they don't keep Sandy very long. So I'm always a little reluctant to go too crazy on those, uh, super low numbers and, and push them even lower.
36:31
But I think the win totals should be, uh, reversed for the Marlins and the White Sox, to go back to what I was saying earlier about the White Sox there. Hmm.
36:38
Again, not going crazy there, maybe like a half unit type situation, but their lineup is impossibly bad. And I love Sandy, I like Ryan Weathers, but two pitchers is not gonna do it for you.
36:48
Um, I wore the Nats hat on purpose. I think they're a sneaky little team. I'm intrigued by them. Now, can they make a move all the way up the division? I don't think so. The bullpen's a bit light.
36:57
You can build a bullpen on the fly, but it, it, it's too light for me to get too crazy with them.
37:03
But similar to my A's lean where I'm like upper 70s, low 80s win total, this is a really, really compelling lineup that they're putting together there. Literally one to nine.
37:12
Like, even the bottom three, Kyle Ruiz, José Tena, and Jacob Young, is a nice seven, eight, nine for this young ball club.
37:18
Let alone the star, the emerging stars, CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, James Wood, and then the established guys, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, and Luis García Jr. in the middle.
37:26
So I know we're kind of taking this up from the bottom there. And then you get to the three big dogs. And look, it's already been a rough start to the season for the Mets, losing two pitchers.
37:35
Now, the Frankie Montas one, I can kind of slough that one off. I've been a big Montas guy in the, in the past and I still root for him, but I understand his limitations.
37:43
Griffin Canning can replace him and you don't miss a beat. However, the Sean Manaea situation is a big deal. Oblique, you're probably looking at six to eight weeks.
37:51
I know after the Montas injury, they said they weren't gonna look to add a pitcher. They were just gonna go with their in-house depth.
37:57
I do wonder if they phoned, uh, José Quintana after the Manaea injury though and said, "Hey, uh, are you, do you wanna come hang out with us again because, uh, we need some more depth there?"
38:06
So they're interesting, but I'm, I'm still a little short on them. I think it is Braves, Phillies here. And if you're talking about that exactly that you were saying, that's probably the order I would go.
38:14
You me- you mentioned that some folks are a little bit light on the Phillies this year. I'm not really seeing that. Uh, I'm not really seeing why you would be. Now, it's a, it's a big number at 91 and a half.
38:24
I wouldn't necessarily slam the over, but I think they remain one of the best teams in baseball. When you've got two legit aces, and Wheeler and Nola are two legit aces.
38:33
And I know Nola has some variations in his ERA, but he's a stone cold stud. Plus two, uh, strong lefties behind him in Sanchez and Suárez. Actually, three, 'cause Luzardo, he's more of a X factor though.
38:43
I think Sanchez and Suárez are more bankable. But their one to five is strong. The lineup runs deep. I think Philly's still loaded for bear. However, it is the Braves division for me.
38:54
Uh, they were a team that were just ravaged by injuries last year. That's all it was, plain and simple. I don't see anything more or less about it. They still won 89 games.
39:03
They just get a little bit of injury luck this year, and they're pushing toward triple digits. So the Braves are definitely the team to go with there.
39:10
But, uh, because they are, you know, plus 110, I wouldn't, I wouldn't put a bet on them. I would look for more, uh, something like the exacto that you were talking about earlier. Yeah.
39:18
And exactos can get real interesting in, in divisions like the NL West, which is coming up, when you pair the Dodgers with somebody else. Right.
39:24
And that's where the, sort of your odds can increase based on who you end up choosing as the number two. We go to the NL Central first, though, before we get to the West.
39:32
NL Central, like the AL East, very compact from top to bottom. Uh- As it should be... with, with the Cubs as the short shot to win this at plus 125.
39:41
And their season win total, though, 85 and a half for a division winner. So like the AL Central, a very muted win total for a first place projection. Then it's the Brewers, the Reds, the Cardinals, and even the Buccos.
39:55
Mm-hmm. Just eight games back in the win total column. Uh, me at a glance, I think the Cubs over is probably what I'm looking at. How about you? I think that's totally fair. They were the only team that did a damn thing.
40:06
Yeah. What the hell were the Brewers and Cardinals doing? The Cardinals did literally nothing. I mentioned the, uh, the Twins earlier. Uh, the Cardinals were that same version.
40:14
But they didn't, they're not running back a team that is as capable as I think the Twins are. So I don't really understand what they were doing sitting on their hands there.
40:21
I know they talked about trading some of the veterans. Um, Nolan Arenado, for some reason, declined a deal to Houston.
40:27
I really don't understand that, 'cause I think the Crawford Boxes would kind of reinvigorate his power, and that's obviously a better team. Very surprising there, but this is wide open.
40:36
I would love to get super excited about the Pirates, but as I hinted at earlier in the AL segment, they just don't have the hitting. This is Mariners East.
40:45
Um, not quite the depth of pitching yet, but the same setup, where the pitching is really compelling. You got a bonafide ace in Skeens already. Yes, I'm saying that even after just one season.
40:55
Jared Jones is a really strong number two. Mitch Keller, a quality three. I love the Andrew Heaney signing. His biggest issue is always home runs. So go to PNC Park and it can at least trim them down a little bit.
41:06
But the lineup, I just don't have much to say after Tommy Pham, Brian Reynolds, and O'Neal Cruz. You know, McCutchen is still good, but he beats up lefties. Joey Bart's interesting, but they don't have enough.
41:16
Uh, they need some guys to step up. By the way, I didn't even mention Bubba Chandler, who is a prospect who should be up early. He could take that fifth starter's role out of spring.
41:23
If he has a big spring, then they're running a one to five. So they're interesting. I do like looking at them as an over 77 and a half. But for the division, I'm with you on the Cubs.
41:32
I wanna like the Brewers, but they didn't do anything either. This is how they play it, and it usually works. But I think they're gonna come up a little light this year because the division is too difficult.
41:41
Don't sleep on the Reds with Terry Francona, one of the best managers in all of baseball. They've got a ton of talent. Obviously it, it's a little dicey for their pitchers because of that ballpark.
41:51
But we saw Hunter Greene take a step forward last year. I'm a little dubious on it because all he did was have his home run to fly ball rate cut in half, and I didn't see any skill change that brought that about.
42:01
So I'm a little skeptical on it. But Greene, Lodolo as a top two there can be nice if they stay healthy, and their lineup is loaded for bear.
42:08
So I think that they're, the Reds are kind of the sneaky pick, the Cubs are the favorite, as you said, and then the Pirates with a, a win total there that I would probably take.
42:16
I, I, I think I'd give them a shot at 77 and a half. There again, half quarter unit type thing because that hitting is so suspect. But I love the pitching that the Pirates are putting together.
42:25
A lot of love for the Reds on this show today, that's for sure. Okay.
42:27
And then the National League West, where the Dodgers are not only ruling the roost here, are the defending champions, considered the best team in baseball, not only consensus wise, but also market wise. Right.
42:37
Uh, you got the Rockies at the bottom, and then you have the D-backs, Padres, and Giants in between, in that order. How do-- first of all, does anybody have a shot to, to win this division besides the Dodgers?
42:48
And if not, how does this stack up otherwise? Is there a shot? Yeah, you got to play the six months, right? You know, we, we, we crown, we crown teams in the off-season all the time, and it doesn't come to fruition.
42:59
Uh, by the same token, I'm not gonna sit here and try to make anything close to a compelling case that the Dodgers shouldn't be the overwhelming favorite.
43:07
The way it would happen is that the pitching just can't stay healthy, right? They're just cycling guys in and out because, you know, all of them are getting hurt for substantial periods of time.
43:16
That's how they would lose it. That's really the only way I see them losing it, though.
43:20
And even then, they have enough depth that it would probably take, like, five or six substantial pitching injuries for the Dodgers to lose this division.
43:27
They just have gobs of talent, and that's with an entire rotation on the IL.
43:32
Don't-- you can't tell me that, like, Clayton Kershaw, River Ryan, Emmett Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Kyle Hurt couldn't be, you know, another team's rotation and make them, you know, halfway decent.
43:42
And n- and none of those guys are pitching this year except for Kershaw late in the season. The rest are out on, uh, for the year, and it barely affects them.
43:50
Not only do they have a great team right now, but they still have a great farm system that they can either use to bring up more guys or leverage to make trades. That said, I like the D-backs.
43:59
I mentioned World Series hangover. They still won 89 games last year. I really like what they've done bringing in Corbin Burns. I don't see Jordan Montgomery being that bad again.
44:09
I think they're the team that, uh, I wanna go with, 86 and a half there. And if you wanna take the long shot on the division, you can. But again, quarter half unit, don't get silly with it.
44:16
The Dodgers are gonna win the West. Not mentioned, the San Francisco Giants, perhaps for good reason. I'm sorry. That's all right. I understand. Paul, we'll see you again real soon. Sounds great. Take care, guys.
44:27
My man, Paul Spohn @Spohrer from FanGraphs. Tennis picks and more on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at Vsauce.
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