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Feb 7, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 7, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | February 7, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
0:19
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, to my left. You didn't do the little wave. I, I thought I'd go with a nod today. Oh.
0:28
Um, hey, before anything happens, has Rybakina and Bencic started yet? Because we have a one tennis match overnight. I'm on Bencic plus 138- In Transylvania? I'm sorry, you're stepping on... What did you say? I'm sorry.
0:37
I- In Transylvania? Oh, no. No, this is in, uh, this is in Abu Dhabi, uh, semifinal there in Abu Dhabi. Bencic w- uh, we gave out a total- Has not started... gave out as a plus 138 favorite for subscribers.
0:48
Um, no, p- plus 138 dog for subscribers. I'm not sure if it's started yet. I'm not sure if you can even bet it yet pre-flop. Oh. But I'm on Bencic as a dog here against Rybakina. I'm seeing it.
0:57
It's still up, say, s- Okay... it, it, from the sportsbook time, I'm seeing it starts in five minutes. Rybakina minus 150 over at DraftKings, Bencic plus 125. Mm, okay. So, uh, it's kind of at the edge of playable.
1:10
Edge of playable, given, given the number. Guess what? I'm gonna check MGM right now, and then I might bet it. Uh, okay. On the show today, Super Bowl LIX.
1:17
It's our final Friday, obviously, before the big game, and yes, we got it stacked. Warren Sharp joining us this hour. Does Warren know he's joining us?
1:25
My God, Warren Sharp's gonna join us this hour from sharpfootballanalysis.com. Uh, [laughs] the answer is yes, by the way, Kelly. [laughs] Uh, he will, uh- Yeah... he will join us- Hasn't answered my text.
1:34
[laughs] As will Steve Fezzik for Fezzik Fridays. He will join us, uh, in volume, hour number two. Chris Fallica as well from Fox Sports, all of their thoughts on Super Bowl LIX. Fezzik has a bunch of thoughts.
1:46
Yes, he does. Uh, including who he thinks or where he thinks the line will end up. Will it stay exactly how it is? Will it move, you know, significantly? By significantly, I mean will the favorite flip?
1:58
Let's, let's not go crazy with significance, right? But we'll see.
2:01
We'll get, uh, Fezzik here, and he's got things to say about all kinds of stuff, including his, uh, big jackpot that he hit two days ago- Yeah, good for him... that we talked about yesterday, uh, on the show.
2:08
Man, Bencic plus 105 at MGM. Oh, Jesus. It, it just ticks down in front of my eyes. Plus 115, plus 110, plus 05, 105. It's like you're moving numbers, Gil. Did, did I do that? [laughs] As, uh, the great Urkel once said.
2:20
Um, okay, before we do any of this, though, and we will do our We Sure Super Bowl LIX style here coming up. Estamos seguros for those listening in Spanish, and also for Rob Marino, so he could understand.
2:29
Um, this is- [laughs] This is about the NFL awards. Congratulations to everybody who had Josh Allen as MVP. Josh Allen squeaks by in the closest MVP vote since 2016. So let's review from our standpoint.
2:44
I had Ashton Jeanty. Uh, for the Heisman, I had Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP.
2:51
Both had big numbers, big-ish, not the longest, but big-ish numbers, both, both, uh, sizable wins it would've been, and both end up in historically close losses.
3:00
Ashton Jeanty, the closest Heisman loss since 2009, and then last night, Lamar Jackson, the closest MVP loss since 2016. Do you remember the 2016 one? Matt Ryan edging out Tom Brady. Wow. That aged well.
3:14
Actually- Um- [laughs] I like barely remember that. So i- you know, the bottom line is this, this got down to, do we have the MVP, uh, tally? Do we have that on the board anyway? There we go.
3:24
Uh, oh, we have them person by person here. So look at that. The, the left column for those who, uh, will have the visuals here, the left column are those that voted for Lamar.
3:33
Uh, oh, this is Offensive Player of the Year we're looking at. Y- no, this is bo- this is both, Gil. Sorry, I grabbed an, I grabbed an extra one.
3:37
So this is, what you're seeing at the top, Lamar Jackson voters and Josh Allen voters, those are the MVP voters, and then next to them is how they also voted, what they voted for Offensive Player of the Year.
3:48
All right, you're confusing me now. Here's the story, though. Uh, it's a 10, five, three, two, one scoring system, right?
3:55
You, you gotta put down five on your ballots, and in points, 10 points, five points, three points, two points, one points, uh, one point, rather, w- based on one through five, where you, uh, end up voting on them.
4:05
What this came down to, right, so not only is it the closest vote since 2016, but Allen becomes the first player in 21 seasons to win MVP without being selected first team All-Pro since MVP was handed out since 1957.
4:20
The only other players to win the award despite not being a first team All-Pro were Broncos quarterback John Elway in 1987, uh, when Joe Montana was first team All-Pro.
4:30
I think Montana and Rice kind of split the vote otherwise in that, in that particular year. And then Titans quarterback Steve McNair, Air McNair, in 2003, when Peyton Manning was first team All-Pro.
4:40
This is only the third such instance. So it's the same voters for MVP that, that vote for All-Pro, which is why many, uh, thought that Jackson might get this in the end, um, and get his third MVP.
4:51
But what ends up happening is Jackson, uh, who had 30 of the 50 first team All-Pro votes, while Allen got 18, 30 to 18, when it came to first team All-Pro, Allen then won, uh, the first place votes for MVP 27-23.
5:07
So here it is. This is what I'm looking for. 27-22, one for 383 points against, again, 10-5-3 when it comes to the points there for, uh, first place, second place, third place. Lamar, 23-26, zero and one.
5:22
That's how close it was. So what was the difference? Going back to that AP first team vote versus MVP, Allen, um, well, basically it was that nine voters- Mm-hmm...
5:33
who picked Allen for first team All-Pro and gave him the nod for that, decided to go with Jackson for Offensive Player of the Year in this par- in the awards voting, and so that's wh- and, and instead vote Allen first for MVP.
5:49
So that's where it changed. That was the key to all of this. Um, and so again, congratulations. We had, both of us had Lamar Jackson tickets. The first sign was Polymarket spiked in Allen's favor yesterday.
6:01
Now, Polymarket won't mean anything unless there's some kind of leak. Mm. That was the first thing.
6:06
The second thing is when we saw the Offensive Player of the Year vote, which by the way, went to, went to Saquon Barkley, congratulations to everybody who had Saquon Barkley there. No surprise. Um-
6:16
The, when we saw that Jackson got 12 first place votes, that was the other sign. We were like, "Oh, no."
6:22
'Cause the, 'cause the likelihood of m- many of those not going with him MVP was there, and we just found out that nine- Yeah... nine of those did not. Um, and then [laughs]
6:31
and then the third sign, I don't know if y'all caught this, but they did them in order, right? There's seven awards.
6:36
Before they got to c- The final two were Coach of the Year and MVP, and before they got to Coach of the Year, Tracy Wolfson tweeted out, "Congratulations to Josh Allen for winning MVP."
6:47
[laughs] And then she quietly took it down about five minutes later, and then they gave out Coach of the Year. Congratulations to everybody who had KOC. Uh, Kevin O'Connell wins Coach of the Year.
6:57
By the way, here are the, uh, offensive... L- let's run those back, guys. I'm sorry. Uh, a- offensive player of the year, here was Saquon's sort of landslide win. Lamar was second, by the way.
7:06
Lamar second in offensive player of the year voting. Uh, here's the coach of the year voting that we just alluded to, Kevin O'Connell, um, in what was I, I guess a close race with Dan Campbell.
7:17
It's pretty darn close, 361 to 283, and then Andy Reid a distant third. I'm glad to see Andy Reid got a little love here, though. Yeah. Me too. Uh, it just felt like all season that was not being talked about enough.
7:29
Me too. I, i- if there was one m- and by the way, again, with the Josh Allen thing, I don't know that that even can be considered any kind of surprise. We always knew it was gonna be close.
7:39
My thing to the, to the, uh, to the Allen folks was they thought, "Ah, you're crazy. Allen's gonna win."
7:45
And, and my whole point the whole time was you're way too overconfident, and that really did come through with, with the closest vote, you know, since 2016.
7:52
Well, if you take away, I mean, Gil, this is where I, I, I know we went crazy about rules last year, right? This is, we've talked about this a lot.
7:59
If you take away quarterback as an option for offensive player of the year, Lamar Jackson's winning MVP last night. We said that, we said that somebody's gonna get, gonna get snubbed from everything.
8:08
That's what happened. And the whole time we talked about MVP, remember I always said, I go, "It is their right. It is any voter's right. If you wanna, if you wanna vote on most valuable player literally speaking
8:17
and say, 'What would the Bills be without Josh Allen?'" I said so many times, they're like, "Well, they, they would've won two games." So if you voted it that way, that's how you end up with Josh Allen.
8:25
But I will say this, Kelly, th- there had to be some kind of voter fatigue at play as well in this. Yeah. Yeah, there is.
8:30
Because no one can still answer this question properly, which is if Josh Allen had the fourth highest power, uh, passer rating of all time, which Lamar did, if Josh Allen was the first ever with 40 plus touchdown passes and less than five interceptions, 41 and four, which Lamar accomplished.
8:48
If Josh Allen was the first ever with 4,000 yards passing and 800 yards rushing, he ended up with over 900 yards rushing and over 4,100 passing, would Lamar Jackson have even gotten one vote?
8:59
That's where the incongruence is. Mm. That to me is what can never be explained off by the Allen people. Mm-hmm. But again, Allen s- Allen gets it.
9:07
And, uh, so the other ones, comeback player of the year, Kelly is not mad. Joe Burrow gets his second comeback player of the year award. So what did we learn? Wait, I'm still mad. Why?
9:16
There should be way more money in my account. [laughs] But, like, I couldn't bet it that heavily 'cause I can't trust anybody. Well, Joe Burrow wins it big. J.K.
9:23
Dobbins, this is, so we didn't really talk enough about Dobbins. He finishes second. As he should have. As he should have with all of his surgeries, right? Just a- amazing, uh, multiple injuries that he's come back for.
9:34
Darnold ends up third. Damar Hamlin does get a modicum of votes. It wasn't a negligible amount of points. He ends up fourth. Um, so what does this tell us for next year? That voters will actually play by the rules here.
9:48
They'll play by the rules. Yes. And, and you know what? For as much as we crap on the voters, and we probably can for some of these other ones- Yes... you, you were asked to follow some guidelines. Qualify.
9:58
You followed the guidelines. This is what the results should have been. Um, they were correct. I just, I, now maybe I feel, here's the problem, Gil.
10:05
I might feel a little bit more confident in betting this award again, and that terrifies me- [laughs]... going forward.
10:11
Uh, and then the, uh, to me the biggest surprise, 'cause I don't think anything that we've talked about yet was any big surprise. By the way, how did Christian Gonzalez get 69 points?
10:19
I know, like, in two first place votes, what? Um, here's my thing. I thought defensive player of the year was the only one that was a mild surprise to me.
10:28
And by the way, it wasn't, it shouldn't have been a surprise based on the betting odds, 'cause Sirtan, Patrick Sirtan- Yeah... was in fact the favorite.
10:35
But I do, I do feel like Trey Hendrickson folks thought they got robbed a little bit. Mm. But what does that tell us for the future?
10:42
That these voters are simply not willing to vote for a great player on a bad defense, and I think that's the lesson learned there. So I think, I think it's a little bit of that.
10:52
The other one I'm wondering is, it, how much- To an extent they're not, right? How much of betting odds, it, it, like, worked their way into the, into voting, right? Right.
11:00
Did the betting odds push voters to vote, some voters to vote the way they did? 'Cause how many times have we said on air and off air, we're like, "Defense is rookie of the year, defensive player of the year."
11:11
Like, we don't really know. That's it up in the air. But we were surprised when we s- kept seeing Patrick Sirtan take more and more money, get shorter and shorter.
11:18
So MVP came down to two, by the way, and Jayden Daniels, I kept asking, will he be unanimous? I mean, I said, "Watch, one person will vote for Brock Bowers just to be different." Yep. Sam Monson. Remember Sam from PLF?
11:30
Really? He's the guy. All right. Remember how he got upset when I dared ask him if that w- what his accent was? [laughs] He was very annoyed with me on Prime Time Action.
11:37
Um, so two votes ends up, the two first place votes ends up being the difference for, uh, MVP. And our own Adam Shine and Rich Gannon both went Josh Allen. Not to, not to single out anybody.
11:48
We'll come back, Warren Sharp, Super Bowl 59. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ever had your deposit blocked by your bank right before a big bet?
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Use the promo code ANG to start at tier two for faster bank transfers and higher cashback rewards. Sign up for EdgeBoost today. How about that? Skill Alexander, uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
13:02
Yayo, he said, "Four or five votes out of a possible 50 ballots away from cashing on Lamar. Despite not winning a numbers game, gets credit for underlining the mispricing late in the season."
13:13
Thank you for that, Yayo, because that's exactly what we're doing, right?
13:16
We're making bets based on the price itself, and if you fall short just like that, doesn't mean it was a bad bet, even though we fell short at the odds we betted at. Give me my stuffed panda from the CLV store, uh, Gill.
13:28
[laughs] Where's the, where's the CLV store? Yeah. Let's go there. John B., "My favorite bet for Super Bowl, over two and a half players to have a pass attempt at two to one. New York Mess 16.
13:37
If we're talking outfits, what was OBJ wearing?" Oh, I didn't see what Odell Beckham Jr. was wearing. I haven't seen that yet. Yeah, no.
13:43
G- Gill and I were out at dinner, we saw a guy wearing a beret, though- Yeah, we did... so that, that's, that's important That's a good look. Yeah. It's a very good look. Yeah.
13:49
Abe Garcia, "Been getting, uh, heat about Eli not getting in. He'll get in. Never an MVP. No A- no, uh, AP or considered the best quarterback in any season. Only stat he ever led was interceptions.
13:59
I like Eli, but not first ballot. Next year isn't a lock either. Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, those that missed this year." Abe, I agree with everything you said, and, uh, yeah, might be next year.
14:08
I think it might be next year, but you're right, it m- it might not be, uh, Bruce Dobbings, but he will get in.
14:12
Bruce Dobbings, "You picked on Rickie Fowler's, uh, camo costume, and now he's a withdrawal before round two." Yeah. "Hope you're satisfied with yourself, Kelly. He looked like he'd escaped from an episode of Doc Tari."
14:22
I didn't tweet it, I just had to answer the tweet, but he is a WD. It g- goes back to what we were talking about with Jaylen Carter, though. I, I mean, this is, PGA Tour- Oh, they're all sick...
14:30
these guys are getting sick all over the place the past few weeks. They're all sick. We'll get to more of your tweets. I wanna get to Warren Sharp, though.
14:35
Uh, we haven't talked to Warren in a long time, and he used to be a stalwart on this show, but then he, he went on to bigger and better things. Uh, you can follow him at Sharp Football on Twitter.
14:44
Sharpfootballanalysis.com is where you can check out all his work. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Warren? Hey, I'm doing great.
14:52
Really excited about this Super Bowl, and, uh, happy to talk about it with you, Gill.
14:55
Hey, man, let, let me, so you, you, we know you from probably most on Twitter is formations and, and how you break down games and how you see things going.
15:05
What do you believe, I mean, or how do you believe Super Bowl LIX goes game script-wise?
15:11
Well, I think the one surprising thing, a lot of people look at this Kansas City Chiefs offense and they don't see a lot of points that they've scored, and they think that this is a mediocre offense, maybe one of the w- down years for Andy Reid.
15:21
This offense drives the football into the red zone at a 40% clip, which is the best for any Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes offense since 2018. They're getting down there a ton. It's the second-highest rate in the NFL.
15:34
Their issue is they're not scoring touchdowns when they get down into the red zone, but now they're going up against Vic Fangio's defense, and Vic Fangio has played Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid eight different games.
15:45
I'm sure you've heard some of these stats, but maybe what you haven't heard is the production overall of this Chiefs offense against Vic Fangio inside of the red zone.
15:54
They're driving down there into the red zone at a 37% clip against Fangio and all other defenses, so it's the same rate.
16:01
But when they get into the red zone against Fangio, Gill, they're scoring touchdowns only 37% of their trips, as opposed to 62% against any other defense from 2019 to 2023, and they're scoring a goal to go touchdowns on only 38% of their trips against Fangio, versus 79% versus everyone else.
16:21
So I think the Chiefs are going to be able to move the football, even though this Eagles defense is good, down into the red zone.
16:27
But I do feel like they're gonna be ultimately settling for too many field goals down inside of the red zone. So I think that's something to watch when the Chiefs have the football.
16:35
When the Eagles have the football, the key question that I have is, how will we get another miracle out of Steve Spagnuolo in this run defense?
16:43
The last two years, he's gone up against the number one best rushing offense in the NFL in the Super Bowl. Two years ago, it was this very Eagles team. Last year it was Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers.
16:55
Those two offenses ranked number one in running the football from an EPA success and yards per carry perspective in those years. But when they went up against Fangio in the Super Bowl, they got absolutely stifled.
17:07
They were averaging in the 3.6 yard per carry range. The longest run for CMC was only 11 yards in last year's Super Bowl. So he performed miracles that you wouldn't otherwise expect.
17:18
I'm just waiting to see what tricks he has up his sleeve to try to slow down Saquon Barkley in this one.
17:23
The, the first part of that, when the, uh, the Chiefs have the ball and the v- the Fangio bend don't break, if you will, the red zone defense. Mm-hmm.
17:30
Do you find that that is the part, I mean, if we broke down football in, on all kinds of ways, but is red zone offense and red zone defense and the conversion rate therein the thing that most handicappers miss?
17:43
Can it be distilled to that kind of thing? It is, it is a, a factor.
17:48
The trick is most people don't put too much weight into it, because they say 80 yards of the field is more important than the final 20 yards of the field.
17:55
But the issue is, the way that this, uh, Vic Fangio defense plays, they are forcing you to be perfect up and down the field.
18:03
They're allowing you underneath stuff, but they're not gonna allow any explosives, and then they're gonna choke you out like a, like a boa constrictor down inside of the red zone and prevent you from scoring.
18:12
So that's the type of defense that you have to look at very differently than most other defenses in the NFL.
18:18
The Kansas City Chiefs team, this is a very unique offense that we haven't seen from, uh, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid much in the past.
18:24
The- Out of 192 team seasons since nine- uh, since 2019, Gil, this team is throwing the ball short of the line of scrimmage at the second highest rate.
18:34
They're unlike most of their other teams, uh, that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have had, and it actually is the perfect matchup against Fangio because they don't want the explosive.
18:43
You know, some years past with Tyreek Hill, they would get frustrated if they couldn't get a big play down the field, and they have to dink and donk, and they would ultimately fail.
18:51
This team, that's what they're built on. They're built on converting on third downs. They're built on setting themselves up for makeable third downs, converting it, possessing the ball, moving the ball down the field.
19:00
This is why they're so difficult from a, a statistical perspective to really assess their greatness because they're not playing by everybody else's rules.
19:09
They're not really trying to, uh, be efficient on early downs and have explosive plays.
19:13
They just wanna possess the football, and they just wanna march it down the field, and they've just struggled down inside of the red zone.
19:20
So that is the part of this game, I think, that's going to really determine who wins and loses, is can Vic hold up against these guys down in the red zone. All right, so brass tacks this for us if you would, Warren.
19:31
Where are the bets? Yeah. Well, one of them, a lot of people maybe gleaned from how I'm angling here, and that is my favorite bet of the entire Super Bowl, Gil, is Harrison Butker over one and a half field goals.
19:44
And this was one that I originated and, and a bunch of other people have sort of, uh, taken the lead on this one after me, and that's fine. That's totally fine because I think it's a great bet, and they should.
19:56
Right now, from what I am seeing, if this is the correct number, Circa has a minus 150 on the over one and a half. We were getting it at minus 120. Minus 150 is still the best line in market that I am seeing.
20:07
I absolutely love Harrison Butker over one and a half at minus 150. I would bet it considerably higher than that as well. Um, I just think he has made 100% of his field goals. Uh, Andy Reid implicitly trusts him.
20:20
He's made 100% of his field goals in the playoffs the last two years, is what I was meaning to say. Um, he's kicked a ton of field goals against Vic Fangio's defense, if you look back at the statistics there.
20:29
Uh, and a lot of people are, you know, I know you're a Commanders fan, and, uh, the Commanders went for it on all, every fourth down, and they're playing the Lions, who go for it on a ton of fourth downs.
20:38
The Philadelphia Eagles go for it a ton of fourth downs. Andy Reid, in the big moments, is going to depend upon his kicker if he needs to. They're not gonna just go for it and force fourth downs that aren't plus EV.
20:49
They're gonna rely on Butker to make them. And consider this also, last factor here, Butker plays outdoors in Kansas City.
20:55
He's been kicking rocks for months, and now he's in a warm dome finally, gets to kick the ball here. I think he makes at least two field goals. I even altered this one, Gil.
21:04
I took three plus and even four plus field goals made by Harrison Butker.
21:08
Another one that I like because of the way that I think the Philadelphia Eagles are gonna play offensively, they're the type of team that runs the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and as a result, they have faced the second-most third down attempts of any offense in the NFL this year.
21:24
I believe that's going to continue on here. A lot of people think that they're gonna come out throwing the football. They only threw the football in Su- in the Super Bowl two years ago after the first quarter.
21:33
They tried to run it in the first quarter, didn't have success, resorted to the pass. I think they're gonna come out here with Saquon Barkley, ca- let him try to carry the team.
21:41
They're gonna be forced into a lot of third downs here. All the teams that are going up against the Chiefs, the Bills last week, the Texans the week before, face a lot of third downs against this team.
21:50
I like Eagles over five and a half third down conversions. That was at plus money a couple of days ago. I'm not sure where it is now.
21:56
I also think the Philadelphia Eagles go for it and make at least two fourth downs, so there's a prop, uh, over one and a half fourth down conversions for the Philadelphia Eagles.
22:04
I just think they're gonna be forced into a lot of those situations as well. Um, one other one that I think is a, is a fun one that you might be able to find, uh, team to score the longest touchdown.
22:13
I think that's going to be the Philadelphia Eagles here. They've done that with consistency through most of the year. That was at minus 110 a couple of days ago.
22:21
Uh, not sure wha- again, I don't know the exact price on it now. Uh, and I like Juju Smith-Schuster a little bit over his low receiving yard total. Oh, okay.
22:30
Uh, by the way, that was simpatico with Mike Pritchard yesterday, the Juju one. Um, Warren, we got it all in. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. You got it, Gil. Enjoy the Super Bowl. You too.
22:40
Warren Sharp, everybody, @SharpFootball on the old Twitter machine. We'll come back. We'll talk about MVP by position, all of our bets. It's a Numbers Game, at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:50
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:05
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, here as well.
23:17
Steve Fezzik standing by. Chris Fallica still to come this hour. Uh, we have listener questions for Fezz. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Let's start right there.
23:24
Andy V, Andy Vigil, "You often talk about gambling talk being too close to the sun. This awards voting tally is exhibit one.
23:31
Darnold had literally zero shot to win Comeback Player of the Year, and it ended behind Dobbins. Uh, Joe Burrow first, Dobbins number two," is what he's saying. Uh, Kelly Bidlin, he says you should have bet more.
23:42
Um, we actually mentioned this earlier, uh, Andy V. That was the biggest sort of, uh, difference between what we talked about and what ended up resulting, that J.K.
23:51
Dobbins, correctly, by the way, ended up second place to Joe Burrow. Sam Darnold was, in fact, third. Nemesis Enforcer, "Used to have the Eli Hall of Fame argument with a Giants fan.
24:00
His season numbers offset the gravitas of the Super Bowl wins. His lows are low." Nemesis Enforcer, no argument. I think everybody sort of gets the Eli thing. I think he'll get in.
24:11
I just don't think there's a problem with him not getting in on the first ballot.
24:14
Jim Devitt, "Thanks for helping me to a profitable football season, but let's start focusing on tennis and golf, where we can make real money."
24:20
Oh, and Nemesis also, uh, adds, he says that, uh, profitable son one, he says, "Kendrick did an Apple Music interview and said the show was gonna be storytelling. Sounds like a discography." Oh, no. Oh, no.
24:31
Hey, plus money. I plus money Congratulations on your, uh, your big parlay hit. Nicely done. Eric Berg: "Numbers game never disappoints.
24:39
We go from a full Super Bowl breakdown from Sharp Football, Warren Sharp, to only be overshadowed by a mind-blowing dissertation on Gatorade from the Kelly, Michael Bidlin. Let's have a Super Bowl Sunday.
24:49
Feeling great after a 40-1 offensive player of the year Saquon win." Wow, 40-1, nice job. Uh, Banshees of Atlantic City, and I think this does, just does crystallize it, Banshees.
24:58
"Listening to Veasna this week, it seems most people picking the Eagles say it's because the Eagles have a better team.
25:02
Most people picking the Chiefs say it's because Reid and Mahomes are better at drawing pentagrams [laughs] on the floor and sacrificing goats." Uh, yeah, kind of, sort of like that. And finally, Mr.
25:12
Postman: "Man, I was five minutes too early. I just took a shot at All Right being the first song at 33 to one. It was a protest anthem in 2015.
25:19
It resonates with Kendrick's core audience, considering the temperature of things right now." Yeah, we'll all find out together.
25:25
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, and has been a stalwart on this show all, uh, each and every, I should say, Friday during football season, and we hope to have him beyond as well.
25:36
It's Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports. But don't go to his Twitter. Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino Avoid my Twitter. That is, that is- He's always helping us find an edge...
25:44
people's minding edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. You stepped on your intro, man. Off to a bad start. [laughs] That's what happens when you don't wear earphones. That's okay. We- we- we'll know for next time.
25:57
Uh, thanks for being here, man. Happy Super Bowl. Happy Super Bowl weekend to you. I, you know, I don't feel the buzz in Vegas. I haven't seen one Chief's jersey. Hmm. I haven't seen one Eagle's jersey.
26:07
That's a good point. Rooms are inexpensive, and, and I think we're having a Super Bowl hangover from last year being here. That's interesting. And I also think the matchup isn't...
26:20
Uh, they're still the two great teams, right?
26:22
And obviously a three-peat is upon us if the Chiefs win, but I do feel like it's n- it doesn't inspire people in a way that some other random team like Detroit or Washington might have done so.
26:34
And especially in terms of f- you know, first time in a long time Super Bowl participants, my goodness, that brings in everybody, you know? Yeah. It's like, if you can't go to the game, come to Vegas.
26:45
Um, can you imagine how many, like, Washington jerseys we would have seen- Oh... had they made it? Um, are you kidding me? I'd b- I'd be wearing one all week, and then I'd have gone to New Orleans.
26:54
What, uh, what are the room prices going for here in town? So I, a buddy of mine just c- was coming into town. I, I hooked him up, but he was like, "I can stay at the Stratosphere for $10."
27:04
[laughs] I, I can- Do you wanna stay there, $10? I can stay at, I, I can stay, he says, "At South Point for 130, or I can..." He's staying Saturday night through Wednesday, so these are blended rates.
27:14
It's more on the weekend. But he, this shocked me. Encore, he's like, "$289." I was like, "Really? I would've thought $589." So it's crazy. By the way, Kelly shot me a text that I didn't see.
27:24
"Remember the open for Stevie," he said. [laughs] For your, your Fezzik Friday's open. By, by like- Hope you will. By, you know, by April I'll probably get it straight.
27:32
Hey, Al, is, uh, so you'll be here, uh, through April? Will you come through the off season for this? I, I, if I don't curse too much, then- Let's go. Yes. Let's do it. Yeah, that's fair. Try to keep the cursing down.
27:41
All right, let me ask you the first question here. So the Chiefs are still a tick of a favorite. Do you believe that by game time, as so many have said, and we're now what? 12 of the 14 days into it.
27:54
Do you believe that the Eagles will end up being the favorite in the end? Yes. Listen, right now I'm gonna move the Super Bowl line. Set up Eagles plus one. [laughs] Here we go. We are betting Eagles plus one. Go.
28:06
We are betting the Eagles plus one. Blue Horseshoe likes Eagles plus one. The Eagles have to close the favorite, and here's why. We saw all the sharp analytic guys.
28:16
I get it, there's public money also, but there's public money on both sides, on the Eagles and on Kansas City. Don't bet against God. I don't disagree with that. But we just saw all the money come in against Kansas City.
28:26
And Arrowhead, they're hosting Buffalo. I heard, excellent job by Warren Sharp, by you and Kelly first hour talking about, hmm, do we really know that the Eagles are, you know, that much better than Buffalo?
28:37
Well, they don't have to be better than Buffalo.
28:39
If they're the same as Buffalo and Buffalo was a pick them in Arrowhead, well, now the game's in New Orleans, and there's gonna be like 75% of the fans are gonna be Eagles fans.
28:48
So instead of Kansas City having a home field advantage, they're gonna have a slight home crowd disadvantage.
28:53
That's worth, like, two points, which means if that game closed pick, Kansas City minus a half, that means KC should be plus one half, thus money must come on the Eagles.
29:03
They will not be favored when this game kicks o- th- th- Kansas City will not be favored when the game kicks off. You said something interesting. You say a lot of interesting things, Steve.
29:09
I don't mean to distill it to just one interesting thing that you said. But something, uh, you said that props have also led you to believe that this is w- a sign that it's going that way? Yes.
29:21
So let's look at the number of first down props. This is fascinating. So the Eagles are supposed to get 21. Kansas City is supposed to get 20 and a half. Very, very close.
29:31
But now let's, let's think about this a little bit. The Eagles have a, a home run hitter at running back. Kareem Hunt, you could beat him in a 40. All right?
29:38
[laughs] Um, AJ Brown- Yeah, he didn't seem to do a 40, but okay. Yeah... is, is, is, is- Yeah... the playmaker. Uh, do we really think Mahomes doesn't throw deep?
29:46
I mean, maybe Worthy could break away and get, get, get a long, um, completion.
29:51
But, um, if the Eagles are gonna get the more of the dy- uh, of the explosive plays, and the Eagles are gonna get more first downs, and it's reflected in the yardage.
30:00
The Eagles are supposed to gain, like, 388 yards, and I think KC was 371. It's like a 17-yard disparity. Well, then unless Kansas City wins the turnovers, they should be the underdog of this game Hmm.
30:15
Okay And Warren Sharp just said they're not gonna be good in the red zone either And they're not gonna be good in the red zone either.
30:20
Okay, uh, let me just ask you this, though, 'cause we, this has come up and I wanna make sure we get this in before we move on to other things.
30:27
Exchanges, if you have access to exchanges, this is the time to, to go there, right? Exactly right. So when, when we say exchanges, what are we talking about?
30:35
It's like when we take two, two guys like opposite sides of a game. This is at Profit X, it's at Sportrade, it's at, at Couchy, um, it's at Forecasters. There's... To...
30:45
2025 is gonna be the rise of the exchanges, and the exchanges are so good on these standalone games.
30:51
I just looked at one of these recently, and they were offering minus 109 on Kansas City, and the Eagles were plus 108.9. [laughs] It was like... I... It wasn't a one-cent straddle. It was a 10th-of-a-cent straddle. Wow.
31:06
Wow. My goodness.
31:08
And so for everyone who's still betting, and all the brick-and-mortar books and then traditional books, there's still gonna be a place for them because, like, uh, when you're betting all these props and everything else, you're gonna have to bet it at a traditional book.
31:20
But these exchanges, where they really are great is like the finals of an Aussie Open, you know? Tha- those sort of bets where there's a standalone big game like the Super Bowl on Sunday.
31:31
Let's take a couple, uh, listener tweet questions that, from, from earlier. Russell Ambrose, this is sort of what we were talking about before. I, I kind of preemptively answered it.
31:38
He says, "Can you discuss or talk with Fezz about which is a better bet, Chiefs money line minus 108 or Chiefs minus one and a half plus 106?"
31:48
My guess was you would override all that and just say, because of overtime rules, absolutely take Chiefs money line if they're the favorite.
31:55
Yeah, so the, the actual math there is that you're, um, when you're talking about on or off the one, I would say normally I'd be willing to buy that half point.
32:05
Eh, I'd pay like five and a half cents for it in a regular season game.
32:09
Here, I think I'd be willing to pay seven and a half cents more because of the chance of the overtime, you know, landing one if they both get a touchdown. And in your example, I think it's 14 cents is the differential.
32:19
14 cents for one, a one and a half point difference. Well, uh, actually a one point because they can't tie, so it's basically- Oh, right. For a one... minus a half versus- That's right... minus one and a half, right.
32:28
So because of that, if it was a... Right, that's a great point. In a regular season I have to fig- figure in the tie possibility. So yes, I would play it minus the, um, the minus 114, I'd play the money line.
32:38
How about this one? Dgen Southern Gen, "Happy Super Bowl eve, fellas. Was hoping you'd ask Fezzik something from me.
32:43
Fezz mentioned on your show that he usually looks to bet the first quarter total under in the Super Bowl. Is he betting that again this year given the teams' familiarity?" So, y- uh,
32:55
I like slow-starting Super Bowls, all right? So this is my first official play.
32:59
Kelly, I didn't send these to you before, and I apologize for that, or if I did, I don't remember because I was celebrating my good fortune this week. Um, I'm gonna- Which we'll get to, yes. Yes. I'm gonna bet
33:09
will both teams score in the first quarter? I'm gonna bet the no, okay? No on both teams to score in the first quarter, and I think it's, it's superior to the under nine and a half. Now, the vig's like minus 140.
33:21
Now, here's why. Obviously I'm gonna throw myself, you know, on the train tracks if it lands three-three, so the first quarter would go under, but I'll lose because then I would lose if they both scored.
33:30
But look at all my pass I have. This is better than playing under nine and a half. Because what if it's 10-nothing at the end of the first quarter? What if it's 14-nothing or 17-nothing?
33:39
All I need is one team to struggle on offense in the first quarter for me to cash my bet. And frankly, I love this bet in championship games. Teams tend to play closer to the vest.
33:49
Look no further than Notre Dame, Ohio State. Both teams got the ball, marched all the way down the field, and scored touchdowns.
33:56
We still won this bet because Ohio State didn't get in the end zone until the s- very start of the second quarter. Yes.
34:02
In, in Stevie Luck Box fac- uh, fashion, they, they waited till after the clock went to zero before they did that. I ran great from 1993 to 2012. From 2012 to 2019, I ran terrible, and since then I've run great again.
34:17
[laughs] There's variance in this. I actually mentioned this yesterday. That's, it's an incredible thing. It's unbelievable. All right, uh, more of Steve Fezzik's Super Bowl LIX bets that he's willing to share.
34:28
Uh, we'll talk about the jackpot he hit just a couple days ago, 'cause he's the ultimate luck box, this kid. You call your a kid? Is that okay?
34:35
I'll, I'll- I'll take it, at least in this stretch from 2019 to today, as he just defined his range of luck boxitude. More with Fezzik on the other side. It's a Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:47
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