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Jan 22, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | January 22, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | January 22, 2025
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55:37
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
That right there is Kelly Bidlin, and this is a Numbers Game. How you doing, man? I'm doing well. It's cold still. Still cold. Still cold... real cold. Uh, I hear it's going to warm up today, so you'll be okay.
0:31
What does that mean, 40? Uh, you know, a- [laughs]... a living condition. Okay. All right. [laughs] A living condition for you, Kelly Bidlin. Uh, this show has more guests than one show should be allowed to have.
0:42
We're gonna allow it for today. Jonathan Vontobel, VSiN senior NBA analyst, football and basketball talk with JVT. Matty Cox from 3 Man Weave, having a little college basketball. Can we talk some Danny Hurley today?
0:53
Man has lost his mind. Uh, Farmers Insurance Open preview with, you know, country club, and a little later with Kelly. That's right. His golf plays. Starts today. Get your bets in.
1:00
Uh, I have a couple tennis plays as well. Our tennis plays split last night, which we'll get into momentarily. Uh, and then hour number two, the beat goes on, on and on to the break of dawn.
1:10
Jason Weingarten, uh, at SpreadAPedia, will join us with all his plays. Alex Kane, the CEO of Sporttrade. He hasn't been around in a while, so, uh, we check in with Alex Kane. Mm-hmm.
1:19
Um, remember, minus 104 is better than minus 110. We'll get him to, uh, tell you what Sporttrade is about, for those who are not hip to it. And then our buddy Mike Pritchard, Pritch, please.
1:29
He's gonna join us a little later on.
1:31
Former national champion, but as we say, once a national champion, always a national champion, at the University of Colorado, and then of course former NFLer, to give his thoughts on both championship games this weekend between the Eagles and the Commodores, and of course the Bills and the Chiefs in the AFC.
1:46
Cannot wait. We'll do all of that on the show today. Um, and we'll also talk, uh, NFL draft pick number one here momentarily, 'cause you can bet on this. I just wanna say, uh, last night, uh, we split our tennis plays.
1:59
Uh, the, the dog did not get home. Elina Svitolina, plus 164 dog, she won the first set against Maddie Keyes, the American, yesterday. Uh, it did go to three sets.
2:08
The, the game total that we bet on did go over, so we hit that one, but we split because Svitolina could not get home. Maddie Keyes takes it down in the third set, 6-4.
2:16
So we have the semis set in both the men's and the ladies' side, on both the men's and the ladies' side, and the ladies go first, as they do.
2:25
Uh, tonight it is going to be, uh, two great matches, Sabalenka-Badosa, Swiatek against Keys. Um, I will have a play. Will not put them up now, guys. We'll, we'll save this for a little later.
2:38
Or should we put them up now? What do you wanna do? We can hit 'em both. You wanna hit 'em both? Yeah, yeah. All right, we'll do it now. Uh, I have two plays, and it's very similar to last night.
2:44
I am on, uh, Paula Badosa. She is Spanish. Uh, she's plus 265 tonight against world number one, Aryna Sabalenka.
2:54
We're also going over the total, 'cause I think, uh, Badosa gives her a run tonight, and I think, uh, however we get to 21, I'll take it, but I think this is gonna be a hard-fought match.
3:02
I probab- I think it probably goes three sets. It's Badosa on the money line at plus 265, Badosa-Sabalenka over 21 games. Again, raw data on these two, Sabalenka with the slightest of edges over Badosa.
3:16
It is not what the market is representing, uh, per my data. So plus 265 on Paula Badosa, and over 21 games. By the way, you see the, uh, there's, there's multiple controversies happening in the Australian Open.
3:28
Are you familiar with them, Liz? [laughs] Uh, I feel like I've seen bits and pieces of, yes, multiple things, but no, I'm not familiar with any of them, I don't think.
3:35
There's one that's v- you know, serious in the tennis world, and then there's one that's kind of amusing, but I guess also serious. I, I, not serious to me.
3:42
But the one on court, there's one on court and there's one off court. Okay. The on court is, uh, last night we had two incidents.
3:48
There's, you know, there's four quarterfinal matches, two on the ladies' side, two on the men's side. We had two back, we had back-to-back matches where a double bounce happened. Oh, really?
3:56
So in the, uh, in the Swiatek-Navarro match, which by the way, Iga, 6-1, 6-2. Iga, Iga has lost seven games in the last four matches. That's not bad.
4:09
I'm telling you, as I've said, uh, many, many times on this show, she'll be the GOAT when all is said and done. She also jumped, real quick, she also jumped Sabalenka in the futures market.
4:17
So she's now, she's now- Yeah, because if you watch her play tennis, it is- [laughs]... unbelievable. But, but Sabalenka had been the f- the, the favorite there for, until today, I think. Yes.
4:27
She's minus 115 now- Yes, but-... uh, Swiatek... yeah. Swiatek. Sabalenka has had, has, has been choppy, let's say- Mm... so far, and then Iga has been ridiculous.
4:36
By the way, we get our quarter home on Iga last night at plus 115. But anyway, there was a, there was a point in the second set, um, where Iga had a game point to hold her serve, and, uh, Navarro had a drop shot.
4:50
It bounced twice. Like, the ball hit the second time, and then Iga hit a, hit it back. The ump didn't catch it. Iga ends up winning the point. Navarro lets a, uh, the point continues. Iga ends up winning the point.
5:00
Iga wins the game for the hold to go up 3-2. She eventually wins that set 6-2. Um, but what are you looking back there? I don't know. You distracted? [laughs] Oh. There's a service stack. Talking to, talking to Kelly.
5:09
He's looking right behind him. [laughs] Talking to the man. He's like, "How cold is it in here? Oh, it's 70?" Geez, like, guys are, I, I'm sure- I thought they even had the air conditioning on for a second.
5:19
I was gonna lose it... I'm sure it's gonna riveted. I'm sure the audience must be riveted. Anyway, the point is, is that they didn't go to replay, which they should've, but they, they shouldn't.
5:27
Well, they could have, but it was on Navarro to stop the point right at that point during the rally to trigger the replay. So she continues playing. So she- They just let the point go?
5:39
Yeah, which, which by the way, is a horrible rule- Yeah, yeah... because you're expecting the, the onus put on the player to stop the point in the middle when your instinct is to keep playing is ridiculous.
5:49
Yeah, it sh- I mean, if anything, it should be the other way around, right? Like, keep playing. Like, almost like the football rules of like, hey, uh, you know, let the defense- That's right...
5:56
return the touchdown- Don't blow the whistle... then we're gonna review it. That's right. Yeah. Don't blow the whistle. Well, it's the opposite in tennis.
6:00
The player in the middle of a rally is supposed to stop the point, trigger the replay. So Iga ends up getting the point. She ends up winning the match.
6:07
Anyway, it was, it wasn't like it was 7-6, 7-6, and this was during a tiebreaker. She won, for God's sake, 6-1, 6-2, and it wasn't like it was a break point or anything.
6:14
But, you know, some people can say afterwards, they're like, "Well, Iga should have said, you know, That's your point." I don't know if she saw the replay or not, I'm not sure.
6:23
In the second game- In the second match, what happened right after that? Did I kind of agree with that too, though? Uh- Well, well, well, well, let me give you the- [laughs]...
6:30
let me give you what happened in the next match. Next match, it's Shelton against Sonago. Same thing happens, this time on Sonago's racket.
6:37
They do stop, they do go to replay, and finally after about a, I don't know, six-minute delay, I'm not sure, don't hold me to that exactly, finally Shelton, just because he gets an, is, is impatient, he's like, "Ah, you can have the point."
6:50
So people who are like at- retroactively giving Shelton credit, I'm like, "It took him six minutes to give her the point." [laughs] He had to like- Right?... if it hit twice, it hit twice.
6:56
And, and he actually got to see a replay, so I'm not sure if he actually did when the, when one wasn't triggered in the first one.
7:02
So anyway, this, if you may recall, there was one incident of this last year, but on a match point between Auger-Aliassime and, uh, Jack Draper- Hmm...
7:09
where Draper clearly knew he won match point on a double bounce, and Auger-Aliassime just looked at him like, "Really? You're not, you're not gonna call it? You're not gonna, you're not gonna concede the point?" Eh?
7:18
So anyway, this is a problem. They gotta figure out replay in tennis. That's the on-court thing. The off-court thing is- That's fascinating...
7:24
these, uh, well, I'm sure by the, by your checking with the temperature, I'm sure you were fascinated. [laughs] Um- I was listening intently, all right? Geez. Uh- [laughs] I wasn't on camera. I knew I wasn't on camera.
7:32
The, the off-court thing is these post-match interviews, Sh- like Shelton went off on, you know, Djokovic- Yeah... Djokovic punted on one 'cause he was offended by something.
7:41
Shelton last night went after them in the press conference 'cause he's like, "These are ridiculous." Someone literally said that after he beat, uh, Monfils. He's like, "He, he could be your dad.
7:49
In fact, maybe he is your dad." Like, there's really awkward interviews. Learner Tien, the 19-year-old who beat Medvedev, Learner- What, what's that supposed to mean? Like a Pedro thing, like I yelled you?
7:58
No, it's like, it's like the g- the guy wants to be the star, the interviewer. They get three questions and they wanna be the star, they wanna go viral or something.
8:05
Learner Tien, the 19-year-old who beat Medvedev- Yeah... th- literally it was like, "Wow, you're 19." And then he puts the mic in his face. [laughs] And he's like, "Uh." "Is there a question there?" [laughs] Sure.
8:16
Uh, anyway, it's, anyway, it's nonsense. So Djokovic had a problem with it too, so it's not just the Americans losing their stuff. Oh, no, no, it's everybody. Okay. Everybody's having trouble with it.
8:23
In a pr- in a- 'Cause I'm not sure that Danielle Collins and Ben Shelton are the best represent- Well, this is- [laughs] Best representatives of America. Yeah, that's very true. That's a very good point.
8:33
Anyway, Badosa's the play, Badosa Sabalenka over is the, uh, other play on the same match tonight in the Australian Open semifinals. Uh, Mel Kiper has his first mock draft of 2025. Let's go. Mel Kiper from ESPN.
8:47
Tennessee Titans, you're on the clock, and according to Mel's first mock draft, and yes, if you're scoring at home, this draft ain't happening for a while. There'll be many more mocks.
8:56
He's got Cam Ward from Miami going number one to Tennessee. The Will Levis experiment is over. Cam Ward going number one to Tennessee, per Mel Kiper's dr- uh, mock draft 1.0.
9:07
Then he's got Cleveland, which might be a mild surprise to some who think maybe the Deshaun Watson experiment should be over. It's Travis Hunter.
9:16
Maybe the Deshaun Watson experiment is over either way, but they're not going quarterback, per Mel Kiper's mock draft 1.0.
9:22
Travis Hunter, uh, wide receiver primarily, he suspects, with sprinkled in at cornerback, goes to Cleveland at number two.
9:29
And then Shedeur Sanders, who Kiper has just w- who has w- uh, on his big board, he has Sanders one slot better than Cam Ward. Shedeur falls into the Giants' lap, per this mock.
9:42
Uh, Abdul Carter, of course, uh, continuing the, uh, the 11 history, the LaVar Arrington, uh, Micah Parsons history at Penn State. Abdul Carter goes to the Patriots at four.
9:52
The outside linebacker, Mason Graham, defensive tackle, Michigan, goes to Jacksonville, five. Tedarrell McMillan, the wide out from Arizona, falls into the L- in Raiders' lap. Now, do you remember we talked about- Oh-...
10:02
Tedarrell McMillan?... he's ridiculously, I mean, I, I think I've seen one- Oh... and a half Arizona games this year, Gil- He's-... but he's ridiculously good... he's incredible.
10:09
And then Michael Williams from Georgia goes to the Jets at seven, and on, and so on and so on. But you can bet on number one, and right now, here are what the odds look like.
10:16
Again, agree or disagree with what Kiper's doing, but Cam Ward, buoyed a little bit by this, by the way, Cam Ward minus 195. That's a bit of a move, yes? Yes. Um, because of that- It's like minus 115.
10:30
Yeah, so, so people are buying into the literal first Mel Kiper mock draft as if he's the best indicator, which by the way, he hasn't been historically. Daniel Jeremiah, I think, gets that nod.
10:40
Shedeur is plus 165, Travis Hunter's 12 to one, Abdul Carter's for- 14 to one. Would you make a bet here any which way, and I'm not talking about Ward, I'm talking about with anybody else, thinking Kiper's wrong?
10:53
I, I guess I still have a little bit of a problem thinking that Ward's gonna go before Shedeur Sanders, but I, I think the one thing that hel- one of the big things that helps Ca- uh, Cam Ward is just seeing Jayden Daniels and how good he was this year and any, a- we go back and forth it feels like every NFL season of whether you should be concerned with these quarterbacks that are slighter of build or not, right?
11:16
And Jayden Daniels would tell you that [laughs] this season that there is nothing to be concerned about.
11:20
So if you're the Titans and that's your guy, and that's kinda what we've heard, then yeah, I guess I think it's gonna be Ward.
11:25
Uh, Gil, I think the one I keep thinking about is Travis Hunter and playing over on whatever his draft position is. You think he could fall? I think he could fall a little bit. Okay.
11:33
But, but we're- So not this market, but whenever those markets appear. Right. Yeah. Like, we're talking McMillan, he's awesome. He's incredible.
11:37
Does someone really tell me Travis Hunter's a better wide receiver than McMillan? Oh, he's so not. He's so not. So, like, that's what we're talking about here, right? Oh, Tedarrell McMillan is amazing.
11:46
Uh, we'll come back. JVT on the NFL and the NBA next Numbers Game. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to take your tailgate to a whole 'nother level?
12:03
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12:13
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12:22
I will spell it as always. I will do the work. I will do the heavy lifting, Kelly. S-E-W-E-L-L-S-B-B-Q, get ready for it, S-A-U-C-E.com Flavor this good is just a click away.
12:35
By the way, we get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciate the feedback. Um, best listeners of the game, without question. Mr.
12:41
Masterline, "This might be the dumbest question of the day, but I'm searching for the Megapod and don't see anything about gambling. Is that just the Beating the Book podcast by chance?"
12:49
Yes, it is just the Beating The Book podcast.
12:51
Uh, when the Megapod is, is the football, the weekly football, uh, the second one that we do each week, 'cause we do Guessing Lines on Monday, and then we do, uh, the Megapod on Thursday.
13:02
But it is the Beating The Book feed. By the way, during the post-season, we do the Megapod on Wednesdays, which is today, and so Christopher Felica will join us. Are you familiar with El Oso, Chris Felica? The, the bear.
13:12
El Oso joins us today, The Bear, uh, on our championship round, uh, podcast Megapod today. So yes, Beating The Book feed.
13:19
Nevada Azer, "Hey Gil, given all the noise that the NFL has heard this week, does the Buffalo-Kansas City officiating crew swallow the whistle this weekend? Thoughts." Um- Probably. I... Listen, I don't know.
13:30
I, I hate when people, like, determine what they'll do based on that kind of stuff, but I sure hope so, Nevada Azer. I really do. The worst possible thing that could happen in the NFL this weekend is the Skins losing.
13:41
No, is, uh, is that. Is Kansas City winning by whistle. So- That's the worst outcome... what, what you said at first is absolutely correct, that I hope that we wouldn't, you know, it, it, it...
13:52
Nothing should change, because nothing should change when it comes to officiating. But oh my God, if you're blowing whistles like you did in Houston- No way... Kansas City, we cannot have that, yeah. No.
14:01
Gibby, uh, Gibby, "How do you think books will grade Travis Hunter, uh, as it relates to first defensive back/wide receiver/defensive player to be taken? That could be a very messy situation."
14:12
You're right, Gibby, it could be. In fact, uh, it's the old Doug Kazerian- Mm-hmm... uh, and Jam laquious thing, right? Where a player was, uh, s- what was it?
14:21
Safety and cornerback, but he sort of- It was like defensive back was the prop, yeah. Yeah, the books weren't really on their Ps and Qs with that one. They will be though for Travis Hunter.
14:29
I, I was gonna say- They will be... this one, they will be all over that. Yeah. They're, they're very well aware of Travis Hunter.
14:34
Uh, Jim, James Sot saying, uh, "So Kelly, I have to be in the office this week and, uh, check out my morning commute and walk into the office. I'll take that 40 degree high please." He's at minus six wherever he is.
14:45
Brutal. Minus six. Uh, and then finally, Sean at Sean Fox Plays, "Word will go to Tennessee, as word is Dion has told them he doesn't want Shador there.
14:53
Cleveland is open for business, and Dion going to Dallas is contingent on Dallas acquiring that pick. If they do, place a bet immediately on Dion coaching Dallas." Oh, there's a theory. I- Okay...
15:04
I actually think it's very likely something like that happens. That could be or very well be true. Jonathan Von Tobel joins us, everybody.
15:09
He's our senior NBA analyst, and of course, uh, part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together. Uh, you can follow him at MeJVT on the old Twitter machine.
15:18
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, John? Uh, I'm good. I'm good. This is, uh, I am a winter guy, so I think I can gather that Kelly was, uh, bitching about the weather here.
15:28
[laughs] I enjoy the cold. Was actually taking the kid out to play hoops the last couple of days out there, getting him ready. Wow. So, uh, yeah, very much enjoy this weather.
15:35
Does he have some, uh, have some yo-yo in his dribble? Has he got some talent? Um, he has the passion. I don't know if he's got the- [laughs] We'll see what happens. But he also just started, like, I think a week ago.
15:45
He's... I, I've indoctrinated him on watching it every day, and then they started doing the P. He's like, "This is great." So, uh, we are, we are working on it.
15:51
One of my favorite five-second stories in the history of this show is you talking, like, how you've become your dad, and when your son comes around, you fall asleep- That's right...
15:57
watching TV, and your son's like- [laughs]... "Hey, I'm watching that." [laughs] John, what's up? Watching golf tournaments on a Sunday. It's the best thing. "Hey, hey, hey, hey. Check it out. Watch, watch out."
16:04
Hey, let's start with the two games this weekend in the NFL, the two championship games. Have you placed a bet, sir? Uh, yeah, I laid five and a half, I'm sorry, with Philly- All right...
16:12
against, uh, uh, against Washington. And here's the thing, like, I, there's a side that I feel very strongly about here, and then there's a part of this that I don't feel very strongly about.
16:21
And it's kind of the same thing. You'll see what I'm saying. But I, the thing that has worried me about Washington is defensively they just, they just haven't been good.
16:26
Like, if you look at every metric down the stretch here, they, they've been very, very subpar.
16:31
If you're looking at EPA, if you're looking at success rate, you look at what Baker Mayfield did to them, you look at what Jared Goff and the Lions did to them when they were holding onto the football.
16:38
Uh, you even look what Kenny Pickett/Tanner McKee did to them in that final match up that they had with Washington, um, in the regular season. I think that there's a lot to be worried about here with Washington.
16:47
The other part too is Cosby going down I think is low-key kind of big. I mean, he was a pretty good pass protector. It is.
16:53
We saw the Carter along the interior right, uh, really disrupted those last two plays for LA against Philly last week, and I think that's gonna play a pretty big role in at least moving Jayden Daniels off the spot.
17:03
Uh, to add the adulation, by the way, to Jayden Daniels, go look up his numbers under pressure. You talk about, uh, the inability to be flapped. Holy smokes- It's incredible... the guy's great. Yeah, it's nuts.
17:13
B- but I do think all of those things play a role.
17:15
But I'll say this though, the other thing if you look at, if you sort by me- some numbers and some metrics, since week 13, if you include post-season, Jalen Hurts is the 30, like, the, I think the 26th ranked quarterback in the NFL by PFF passing grade.
17:27
He has not been good. He doesn't turn the ball over, he just hasn't been accurate. He's not finding guys. Is your floor raised by this defense?
17:34
I'm not entirely sure, but I do know that you're gonna be able to run the ball and have some success on the ground against Washington, and this is a very different defense.
17:41
Uh, it looks like, uh, Quinyon Mitchell's gonna play here for Philly too. That makes me feel a lot better, so laid it with the Philadelphia Eagles. Yeah.
17:47
Uh, Daniels just put some numbers behind what JVT is talking about. Since week 13, which is when the, uh, Washington seven-game winning streak began, Jayden Daniels' QBR, this is out of 100, 82.3. 82.3.
18:01
Uh, when you blitz him during the regular season, 90.1 QBR. Against Detroit, 91.8. The, the... This is what I say, and I love how people come in here sheepishly like, "I'm sorry, Gil, I'm fading the Washingtons."
18:15
[laughs] I appreciate that. But, uh, but I, I say the case for Philadelphia is they're a defensive team first. Yep. And they don't have to blitz, right? That's the case for Philly.
18:25
And so because they're good enough where they don't have to. And Philly, what is it? On the year, 18% rate, blitz rate. Fourth lowest in the league. So that's their path. But, but that's...
18:35
What you said about Jalen Hurts, man, woo. Like, they better get ahead and they better play, you know, their, the, the script they wanna play. Otherwise, ooh boy, we could have Jayden Daniels in a Super Bowl. Yeah.
18:46
It, and I, and I think too, I mean, I guess the, the positive you'll hang your hat on, it's not really a positive with Hurts, is like when other quarterbacks don't play well, they're putting the ball in danger.
18:55
It's, uh, you know what I mean? Like, it's, it's, you're giving teams extra possessions.
18:58
With Hurts, over the six, uh, seven game sample size that I'm talking about where he's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, he's actually got one of the lowest turnover with the play rates in the NFL.
19:06
It's just that he just hasn't been good, right?
19:07
I mean, everybody has seen the frozen screenshot on the safety that he took where he's got a guy open the middle, over the middle open, and he doesn't wanna just pull the trigger on that for whatever reason.
19:16
Those are the kind of mistakes you see with Hurts.
19:17
So to your point, if he does not play well again, if you can at least run the ball, have a lead, and don't ask him to do too much, you get another one of those playoff wins with under 200 yards passing, that, that I think is something that is foreseeable.
19:29
And again, going back to Daniels, I just, I really do wonder if that cosmic injury's going to play a factor here.
19:33
To have a guy like Carter be able to put pressure to the pocket, be able to put it up the middle, right, force him out either way.
19:39
It's not he's bad out of the pocket, but it just takes you off your first read, do those sort of things. I think that's gonna play a factor here in this game. Yeah.
19:45
He just went into Detroit and took down arguably the greatest Detroit Lions- Yep... team of all time. It's just incredible.
19:51
Uh, he has more wins now in the post-season than he does sacks, picks, and fumbles combined in two games. So it just, it's on and on and on with just unbelievable stats. It's nuts. Anything on Buffalo, Kansas City?
20:03
Yeah, I, so I, I did lay one and a half with Kansas City. I do think that the, the injuries and the j- for Buffalo's defense is a little worrisome. I also don't feel the most confident about either side.
20:13
Look, I thought these were two teams that were very outplayed in their games respectively in the divisional round, right? I mean, uh, only f- under four or five yards per play for the Kansas City Chiefs.
20:21
For Buffalo, you gave up over seven yards per play to the Baltimore Ravens. You didn't really play well, um, on either team.
20:27
But the one thing that I think we know about Kansas City is, first off, they are a team that will play mistake-free football. They are very good at that. Mahomes does not put the ball in danger.
20:34
Uh, at playing at home in that environment I think is gonna be very beneficial for them, and I just get really turned off by the way I saw that Buffalo defense, again, g- really gouged by a team that has the ability to generate some explosive plays and how beat up they are on the back end.
20:46
So, uh, this one was the least strong of the two, but I did lay one and a half with Kansas City here in the AFC Championship game. Pretty big slate in the NBA tonight. You are our senior NBA analyst.
20:55
What did you play so far? Anything? Yeah, so I, I got a, yeah, I got a couple of games. I mean, some of them already moved. Like, I took seven with New Orleans here against Milwaukee. We're down to five and a half.
21:03
I think the market was just kind of a little out of whack with how much healthier this Pelicans team is getting.
21:08
So we'll see how much farther this goes down, but I do have, uh, New Orleans here in this spot against them.
21:12
And then later tonight, I did lay a little bit of a shorter number for with Boston on the road against Los Angeles Clippers. Uh, this thing's up to 10. Uh, I laid nine.
21:20
I, I think that you've seen the Clippers play a lot of basketball, right? They had to throw in that out of the game against Chicago because of everything going on in the fires.
21:26
Uh, you're talking about a team that's got some really high miles on them. Boston's trying to, I think, bounce back here over a tough stretch. They got a big revenge spot against Golden State.
21:34
Uh, day of rest as well, and I think they're gonna come in here and beat up on a Clippers team that has had to play a lot of basketball in the recent days.
21:39
So those are the two so far that I've got, but again, a little off-market considering everything's moved so much so far.
21:44
Before we leave, since you brought up the Warriors there briefly, uh, in mention, could you have possibly anticipated this turnaround? And when I say turnaround, I mean to the bad. Um, no.
21:54
I mean, if you guys remember, pre-season was my favorite win total. I loved this team.
21:57
Like, I didn't think they were gonna win a championship, but I thought they were gonna be way better than expected, but they, they're just all over the place. The offense is awful, especially when Curry's not out there.
22:05
They're not really getting that much from their young players. The dynamic between Kuminga and the front office of Curry seems to be kind of playing out on the field, uh, on the court to a certain extent.
22:13
Uh, i- if you would've told me they would've fallen back down to earth, would've totally understood it. To this degree, though, I think this is really, really shocking to see how bad they've been.
22:20
I mean, is DeAnthony Melton the, the, the league MVP through the [laughs]... I mean, it's just, like, incredible. Look at his on-court numbers last year for Philly. I mean, he might be. It's unbelievable.
22:28
Uh, John, always a pleasure, man. Good luck with all the bets. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. I'll see you in about an hour and 15 minutes. There you go. Jonathan Von Tobel in today on Money Moves.
22:37
Oh, I think, uh, I don't know if it had directly to do with this, but Stormy's been traveling for, like, 18 straight hours. She got locked up into- Yeah... the Atlanta Airport in Delta. Yeah. Uh, we'll come back.
22:47
Some college hoops next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We're getting ready for Big Game LIX with a big deal to match.
22:58
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23:32
I didn't know if you were gonna check the thermostat. Oh, I see you knocked it up, uh, four degrees. 75 degrees, baby. Let's go. Man, it's trying to smoke me out of here. What was it? It was 70 before?
23:42
That was too cold for you? Uh, it was 70, but I heard it kick on. That's what distracted me, and I thought I, I thought I felt cold air, and I was gonna lose it on Dave Ross.
23:49
I swear, if sweat comes down my back, I am climbing over you and knocking it down. Dave, Dave for- Ther- thermostat battles...
23:56
former Marine, so might as well throw that out here, but he sits here, like, at 64 degrees every day. Like, how are you not freezing? [laughs] Uh, let's talk some college hoops.
24:05
Uh, he is one of the three gentlemen that make it. Not yet. Oh, not yet? Yeah, not yet. Oh, I thought that was a thumbs up from you. No. [laughs] Did, by the way, did you see what happened in college hoops yesterday?
24:13
The, the Dan Hurley thing? Yeah, I did. Okay, so, so earlier this sh- season, I don't know if you remember this, they were playing a tournament in Hawaii. Yep. And they lost f- I wanna say three in a row, right?
24:24
Two very close, but one was a, an overtime loss to Memphis. Right out of the gates, right? Um, not right out of the gates- What did they maybe play, like, one, two games before?... but, but a few games in, yeah.
24:33
Um, defending national champ in Da- Dan Hurley and, and UConn. And remember, he got a, he, during that overtime against Memphis, he took a technical foul.
24:42
Like, he got a tech for, for arguing, and then after the game he's like, "Eh, it had nothing to do with the loss," when, like, of course it had something to do with the loss.
24:47
They, he cost you a point, and you lost by two or whatever it was. Um, but he also said famously after that, he goes, uh, "We're never coming back." We're never coming back to Hawaii. Really?
24:57
You're never coming back to Hawaii? It was that, was that bad for your program? Um, then last night, uh, Yukon does beat, uh, Butler by two last night. But- In overtime, right? Uh, yes. In over- did it go to overtime?
25:09
Yes, it did go to overtime. Uh, but did you see the quote? Do we have this tweet, by the way? Does the, uh, lip- No, no, I don't. No, I don't. Oh, you don't have it. I don't, no.
25:16
It was a, it was a, uh, lip reader's delight.
25:19
[laughs] Uh, but basically, and I'll paraphrase 'cause there was a curse word in there, but basically, uh, the ref, uh, turned his back on Dan Hurley, and Dan Hurley was, "Don't turn..."
25:28
I- in, in a tense moment of the game, as he's walking onto the court in a break, he goes, "Don't turn your back on me. I'm the best blanking coach in college basketball," unquote. Uh- He's lost his mind. Yeah, he has.
25:42
You also very rarely, so you sent me the v- you sent me the video- Yeah... on the tweet. Mm-hmm. Very rarely see these networks take, take something down and copyright, uh, flag it. Yeah. They did with that video.
25:53
They did with that. I was a little surprised. I don't know about you, the, the lip reading always blows my mind, 'cause I can't do it at all. I can't. Y- you could- Oh, I'm terrible at it... I am terrible at it.
26:02
You know the- I'll never forget Prime Time Action, Matt Brown would try to, like- Oh, yeah... mouth things back to me in the back. I'm like, "Dude, you gotta text me. I have no idea what you're saying."
26:09
You know who's great? John Boy, world-class lip reader for baseball stuff. John Boy- Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah... would read the managers and the pitchers talking at each other.
26:15
Uh, Matty Cox is here from Three Man Weave, one third of the Three Man Weave college basketball trinity, uh, joins us now in front of, uh, multiple college basketball banners. How you doing, Matty? Fellas, I'm terrific.
26:27
How are you? Good. Um, Dan- Danny Hurley losing his mind again. Uh, arrogant beyond belief. Thing or not a thing? Let's just, um, on the basketball court, their defense is horrible this year, right? Yeah, it's funny.
26:42
There's, like, debate whether or not that is, how much of that is, like, a show and how effective that is in, uh, referee puppeteering, as I call it.
26:51
Uh, I, I'd argue it works against them, at least this year from what I've seen, at least it has. So I don't, I don't know. It's just who he's been.
26:56
I think we sort of forgot about that because they were so damn good the last couple of years.
26:59
But I think, uh, w- i- in face of some adversity, I think there's a little bit of that old, uh, you know, he's got that Hurley in him, right?
27:05
Like, they just can't ever control themselves when it really gets- [laughs] He's got that Hurley in him... up against. I mean, Bobby loses his mind sometimes.
27:10
He's, I mean, you, you, it's, it's a family lineage thing, it really is. It, it runs in the blood. Um, do- The bloodline...
27:15
do you feel like, and I know we're sitting here in January, so perhaps this is not a, you know, a fair question because there's so much basketball to be played, but do you consider them among the legit contenders this year?
27:26
No, I, I don't. I think the defense has been too shaky. Uh, and frankly, their injuries have been really a problem. Like, they have Liam McNeilly and Alex Karaban, neither of whom have been 100% all this season.
27:36
I think this team's not deep enough to, uh, they have to have their top, like, core six, seven, and now you could argue those are probably their two most important dudes.
27:44
And I don't like a not deep team with a slight dip in talent without all the core pieces intact flowing continuously and without those two guys who have been super important on both ends. I just don't trust this team.
27:56
Unless I see them play, like, five games in a row together, maybe the mojo starts to pick up late in the year. Um, but, but until I see that, I can't put them in that class right now, no.
28:05
Top 10 adjusted offense per KenPom. Guess what their adjusted defensive rank is, Kelly? Yeah, 100? Just guess a number. 57th. 132nd. That's not great. Yeah, no, it's- No, it's not good... no, that's not good.
28:14
It's not good. Um, okay, before we get to your plays, give me a team, 'cause right now Duke and Auburn, the short shots to win it all this year. Duke five to one, Auburn plus 550 at DraftKings.
28:25
Then Iowa State leads the double digit parade, uh, followed by Houston, Tennessee, and Alabama, there you go baby, at 14 to 1. Give me a team beyond those.
28:34
If I took those off the board and I said, "Give me a sort of sneaky team that you could see, once they get into the big dance, could be live, match-up's unknown right now, obviously." Yeah, I'll, I'll give you two.
28:46
I, you know, the one that's, uh, value-wise, man, I just feel like I missed the boat. But Illinois, I think when you talk about title contenders, you're looking for ceiling, right? You're looking for, for upside.
28:57
And I, I think that team's good as looked as anyone's good, save maybe Auburn and Duke, uh, and Houston, Iowa State, and Spurs. I think, I, I think Illinois is worth a, worth a shot even at the current number.
29:08
Um, and I, this is from a guy who basically held this team would be, like, an average middle-of-the-road Big Ten team to start the year. I mean, their, their talent's crazy.
29:14
Uh, and Underwood's a great coach, great adapter. I think that chameleon type coaching thing is important in a tournament setting. Uh, I, I'm also looking at, uh, Louisville.
29:22
They have a really easy schedule down the, down the stretch. I think they could climb into a very favorable seed position, give them a good edge to maybe make a run to the second weekend.
29:31
And once you're there, at the current number, I think it's a live price, right? So that's the, the, two I'd give you. I think Kelsey is an underrated coach.
29:37
Depth wise, I have concerns, but again, tournament setting, rotation tends to tighten. They can keep the guys they have there right now healthy.
29:44
I think Pat Kelsey's a good bet there at the, I think they're, what, 80 to 1? 75, maybe 100 to 1 at some places. I think that's a good, good number. Somewhere in that pocket. Shop around, of course, for the best. Yeah.
29:52
I lied. One more question before your, uh- Yeah... before your picks.
29:55
Um, has there been, to your guys handicapping, and obviously results based as well, has there been a, a team that you look at and you're like, "Oh, that's a, that's a dead solid over team," or, "That's a dead solid under team"?
30:09
Oof. Uh, you know, it's, the, the Big 12, a lot of the Big 12 teams, um, they, they, like, uh, like, you know, Texas Tech, uh, Baylor's actually a good example. Kansas to a degree.
30:21
I've kind of been looking at just that sort of subset of teams to the under. I think defensively they're all really strong and maybe had some inflated metrics or distorted metrics from the non-con and who they played.
30:32
And all those coaches, like, I think really embrace, like, the conference grind does take a toll on these teams, and it's very taxing.
30:38
You see almost just, like, both teams handshake, agree to get into, like, a rock fight, slow nip and tuck possession affair.
30:44
Just, like, a lot of these, you know, just 'cause there's more parity, more variability, it feels like a lot of these games trend towards that.
30:49
So Big 12, some of those unders Uh, but God, I mean, Iowa State with the way they're playing, who knows? I mean, that might just be an Alabama team at this point. I mean, they're putting up
30:58
190, and that's kind of what I think makes them slightly more dangerous long-term than they have in years past. They've been out early in the tournament the last couple of seasons.
31:04
You agree the biggest change in college hoops, like the last two years, just betting this stuff, is that, you know, we als- w- we always just took it for granted that these teams were gonna foul with, like, a minute, minute and a half left, and they were gonna foul repeatedly.
31:17
Oh, yeah.
31:17
And, you know, if they were down a certain amount of points, let's say six points, and they were gonna keep fouling till they, they, they got, you know, back into it if they could, in fact, uh, have the other team miss free throws.
31:27
And now teams just don't do it anymore. The last couple years, they're like, it's almost like an NBA thing. They're like, "Nah, we lost, whatever." It's like a load management thing. It's weird.
31:35
Yeah, no, I, I do think you see some of that a little bit quit maybe. Um, is that what you're trying to get? Yeah, so trying to s- you know, dance around it.
31:41
It's funny, the, the free throw rate is up this season, but that's mostly a function of the block charge change that was instituted last year. You saw the jump. It actually gr- it's actually risen even more this season.
31:52
But in that late game stuff, you're right, I don't have the data, but I think anecdotally you definitely see a lot more, a lot less of that end game stuff. But again, that's why betting totals to me is just really tough.
32:00
Like, you could argue there's higher ROI opportunities, more inefficient market, but the game flow is just so volatile in some of these college games, man.
32:07
You really have to have a good, strong edge, and even then it's just never as solid of an edge, at least for me, as I have, I think, with sides.
32:13
But, you know, it's probably a function I've been doing sides for longer myself. All right, the picks are... Uh, headed west here, uh, tonight, Gil. I like Cal.
32:23
So on that weird, you know, the ACC disjointed schedule, now we got East Coast, West Coast teams flying across the country. It's hurt the West Coast teams more. I think that's sort of an accepted premise.
32:32
We see that in football, too. But first time Florida State's making the trip out west. They've not been great on the road this year. Got a couple of rotation guys down tonight. I like Mark Madsen.
32:40
I think his team is improving. Finally back at home, I think we have some undervalue. Um, you know, I think you probably get an extra, a bonus point or two 'cause of how poor they played in those travel spots.
32:50
So I like Cal there. Um, and the other one I do like as well is, uh, yeah, this is actually is a late game at, uh, Central Time Zone, I guess, Mississippi. Laying three against A&M.
32:59
Um, man, Chris Beard, they're actually playing defense this year. They played basically one bad game. That was against Memphis, against a desperate Memphis team after Christmas. Consistent team.
33:10
I think they get it done tonight. Minus three, better team at home. I think home for three in this conference, so give me the Rebs minus three. All right. Against the market, I believe there. A pair of plays.
33:17
Thank you, Matty. Appreciate that as well. I really do find that- Thank you, boys... that, that end of game thing fascinating 'cause it's like a, a memo got passed around. I know. It's like the March of the Penguins.
33:25
My boys. And then one day a penguin took one step, and everybody followed. Well, you know, being an NBA guy, I'm always like, "Why are these kids trying so hard? It's over." [laughs] That's right. Thank you, Matty.
33:34
Appreciate it. Thank you, fellas. Good luck. Matt Cox, everybody, from 3 Man Weave, 3MW_CBB for all of their plays. Country Clubbin', golf and tennis next.
33:50
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you the kind of player who wants to drop $10,000 or more on an NFL line at the best price of the market?
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34:36
Love you guys. Best, best listeners in the game. Lionel G. Williams, "I'm less worried about the Washington defense.
34:44
My concern is the fatigue factor, fourth straight road game, because if you possess the ball on long drives, it protects your defense." Scuba Scott talking about golf.
34:54
He says, "The four remaining alternates," talking about the whole Wills Alatorre's- Yeah... withdrawal. "The four remaining alternates in round one opening day will show up and go through full warmups.
35:04
If they get in, they play. If they don't, they go home. No to Kelly betting horses. Uh, betting horses is great as long as you don't get the one you bet at 10 to one and finishes at 20 to two." Oh, 20 to two.
35:16
I'm not sure what he said. No, he's probably talking- Yeah... about silly parimutuel odds and driving me insane. Yeah, that's right. Uh, Trip Trap, Trip Tepper, "Good news.
35:24
Max Grazerman is a Leafly tha- is a Leaflet athlete per Wikipedia. I've sprinkled a few shekels on him outright in placement markets. [laughs] Let's go." I was right, Trip. My radar is intact.
35:35
Uh, this is from, uh, Paul Zang. "'Sweep together' is a Seinfeld quote, lip reading gone wrong." Ah, we missed- Oh... a Seinfeld reference. I don't remember that one. I don't either.
35:45
It was, "Let's sweep together, like with a broom." It's a lip, it's a lip reading thing from Seinfeld. We were talk- what were we talking about? Oh, Bobby Hurley. Yeah. Uh, Danny Hurley, pardon me. Drew from, uh, Mr.
35:55
Drew50, "Now that the tennis plays come out at a decent time of day, I have nothing to look forward to at 5:00 PM Eastern. Can Kelly shoot out a live first round pick at 5:00 today?" Uh, it's a good one.
36:05
I, it actually leads me into a little golf PSA different today.
36:09
These, any of these tournaments that are played on multiple courses, make sure if you're going to bet first round leaders, it, they're usually split up by course now at the sports books.
36:17
Now, if you can find, uh, a book hanging just first round leader odds overall, the north course will play much, much easier than the south course. I was just talking about Sport Trade, by the way. Mm-hmm.
36:27
Minus 1 over 4 lines instead of minus 110 lines. Uh, its CEO, Alex Kane, is kind enough to join the program from time to time, including right now.
36:36
He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line with the best head of red hair you will ever find in your life, with the Iowa T-shirt today. How you doing, Alex? What's up, guys?
36:45
I saw Caitlin Clark on the telecast the other day, and I was like, "I have to support." I have got the Iowa, I've got the Indiana Fever. I wanna get the Team USA Clark jersey. I got to wait till next year. Wow.
36:56
Fanboying on Caitlin Clark. Good for you. Um, let me, so we have a new Sirius XM 158 audience here, Alex. So I wanna, I wanna start as if Uh, let, let's act like we don't know anything about Sporttrade at all.
37:08
For the new- for the listener who has not heard about Sporttrade, give us the 30-second elevator pitch, if you will, or go, go as long as you need to. Absolutely. Am I still coming through loud and clear?
37:19
Yes, you are, sir. Awesome. Well, first I want to congratulate you guys for getting back, um, on SiriusXM. I remember speaking with Bill over the- over at BetDash.
37:28
You guys are now fully control of the helm, so congratulations. Um, Sporttrade's a, um, online sports betting app. We're live in five states.
37:36
Bill, you do an amazing job every day of, of introducing that to your audience. Two things. We are, like, the lowest margin sportsbook you could possibly imagine.
37:45
So if you come onto our app, you're gonna see very regularly, like, for the conference championship games, minus 104, minus 104 lines for huge size. By game day, that gets...
37:55
You can bet 35, 50,000, upwards of 100,000 in incredible prices.
38:00
But we're also introduced this exchange mechanic, this marketplace mechanic, where you're actually able to get better than that minus 104 price, and when you do that and you ask for a better price, it allows Sporttrade to offer that price to all of its consumers, which impr- improves, improves the price on that side of the market as well.
38:18
So it's a really low margin sportsbook if you just want a basic experience. But if you're looking for a little bit more, you can actually do so much more with Sporttrade. You can get better prices.
38:27
You can trade in and out of your positions during the season or during the game. Um, and look, we wanna put the player first, right? It's all about transparency, consumer protections. We don't offer things like parlays.
38:37
We don't offer things like casino. Our goal is to give you the fairest sports betting experience you could possibly imagine.
38:44
And by the way, without making it sound like too much of an infomercial, every time we put that up, pardon me, when the QR code comes up, you just have to scan it on your phone, and bam, you're on Sporttrade.
38:52
I would imagine, Alex, from a very simple standpoint, that's sort of the biggest thing, which is you're probably super confident that if they f- that if they change the behavior, if the sports bettor changes his or her behavior and gets on Sporttrade, they'll be hooked.
39:04
It's just a matter of getting them to change that behavior. Is it, is it as simple as that? It's as simple as that.
39:09
I mean, like, our best marketing is, is honestly just getting out there, getting on the odd screens, showing our prices.
39:16
Uh, the, the Sporttrade wheel tracker, which is on X, is just a real-time post of all the big bets that come through our app in our real- in real time. If you wanna take it a step further, you download the app.
39:25
You don't even need an account. You can see all the bets, we call this tape, all the bets coming through Sporttrade in real time. And once those customers kind of get started, we'll reach out to them.
39:35
We text them and say, "Hey, you know you could get even better.
39:38
You know you could, like, buy into this team with not even the plan of keeping it to the end, but, like, you're gonna get a really fair cash out offer throughout the game."
39:46
And start to change that user behavior of like, "You know what? Maybe I will bet Notre Dame on the money line. I don't think they're gonna beat Ohio State.
39:53
But if they get off to a tight- a good start, then the probability of my bet winning goes up, and the value goes up, and I can sell it. And it's not that sort of crappy cash out offer that the sportsbooks give me.
40:04
It's a really fair price." And so it's a, it's a journey, and I think once customers start the journey, we got them. To your point, Gil, it's like we gotta get more of those players.
40:13
But I think it's just, like, improving the product, um, having that word of mouth get out there, having pros say, "You know what? I tried Sporttrade last week. I got $25,000 down at minus 104.
40:24
What are you doing using any other sportsbook?" And just kind of playing into that and improving the product.
40:29
I wanna ask you a couple questions, one of which is, I, I think more fun than the next one maybe, but the fun one for me is, what have you observed, I'm just curious always with stuff, with, with better behavior.
40:39
Has anything surprised you, maybe the sports that they're betting, maybe the type of bet that they're making? Um, has anything sort of surprised you that you would never have anticipated beforehand?
40:51
I think the thing, like, starting Sporttrade, I thought, "Okay, w- if we create this app where you always have a very fair market, and that market is tight, and you, you measure that tightness in terms of the, the width of how, how wide is the market in terms of percentages."
41:04
Like, minus 110 is, minus 110 is about a four and a half percent wide market. Sporttrade's 1%. And in play, it breaks, Sporttrade is, like, one and a half to 2%.
41:14
So if you change this entire way of, like, how customers are charged, then they're gonna be able to buy low and sell high. And, like, we've seen some uptake on it, not nearly as much as ultimately will happen.
41:26
Because if you say, well... Like, take golf as a great example. Like, Hideki may be at 8% on Sportrade this week. The sell price is, like, seven and a half, so, like, it's really, really, really tight.
41:36
Most books don't even give you a sell price, right? They don't let you, allow you to bet no.
41:40
If he takes the lead in the first round, he's gonna go from 8% to 20%, let's say, if he plays really well, and you'll be able to sell it at, like, 19%.
41:49
And so what that allows you to do is start to take bets based on where you think directionally guys are gonna go. And I think I've been surprised that we haven't seen as much uptake in that. Hmm.
41:59
Because you can truly sit there and say, "Here's..." You don't have to bet the first-round leader anymore. Just bet the guy you think is gonna do well.
42:05
If he actually has the first-round lead, he's gonna shoot up, and the odds will go from half a percent chance to win to 10% chance you'll, you'll have 20 extra money, and then very frictionlessly you can exit that position.
42:16
So it's just more user sort of education, but it's sort of surprising to me that more folks don't do it because, you know, it, it...
42:23
But I guess it doesn't surprise me at the same time because it's, like, a totally different way of thinking about sports betting.
42:27
Well, specifically about golf, I have always said on this show, for those who have listened to this show long enough, I've always said golf is the sport most ripe for a sports betting revolution, and it's probably not gonna...
42:36
And I will add this now as I'm talking to you. It probably won't happen with sportsbooks, traditional. It'll probably happen with, with something alternative, and Alex is describing, uh, just that on Sportrade.
42:46
Real quick before we go, uh, a lot of buzz around crypto.com. Mm-hmm. Um, in so many ways. People are familiar with it.
42:54
I think, uh, the election, uh, and, and other kinds of markets sprouted up, and people w- became aware of, of Polymarket and that sort of thing. Um, let's dive in on that a little and how that relates to Sportrade.
43:07
Is that a, is that a similar type of thing? It's precisely the exact same thing. Um, I'll do in 30 seconds the best I can with describing what's going on there.
43:17
There is another regulator in the US, it's a federal r- like regulator called the CFTC. They regulate e- uh, event futures, commodities, futures, things like that.
43:26
And this company, crypto.com, has said, "Hey, when we list the Super Bowl winner, we think that that's a commodity. We think that's a future."
43:33
And, and, and, and the mechanic by which they're offering it is the exact same way that Sporttrade offers it. The prices are expressed in probabilities. And ultimately, that can mean really great things for consumers.
43:43
The consu- the confusing thing that we're gonna have to find out over the next year is who is the right regulator for this sort of product?
43:50
Is it a state-by-state regulator, or is it this federal regulator called the CFTC?
43:55
Right, because right now, for, correct me if I'm wrong, that federal regulator, it's a pretty broad interpretation of what they're allowing crypto.com to do, correct? Exactly. Yeah.
44:04
I can see a world where you can list the Masters futures and say, well, there's a [phone ringing] you know, there has to be a real hedging economic reason, right, for, for this, for this to have value, right?
44:14
That you can't just list Steph Curry over under four and a half points. You c- you can't do that.
44:18
Alex- But you can list things that you can make an argument that someone is hedging real economic interest or real economic risk. For the Super Bowl, right, you can make that argument.
44:29
For something like Steph Curry four and a half, four and a half points, four and a half threes, rather, I don't think you can make that argument. Alex, I gotta run. Thank you so much.
44:36
Alex Kane from Sporttrade, everybody. Check it out, the app that's changing sports betting. Thank you, Alex. Coming back with- A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
44:47
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44:56
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45:10
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45:24
That's the number one on first in there. Uh, we get tweets that beat in the book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Bobby Gettys, "Good start for soccer yesterday with Paul Carr." Yes.
45:34
"Over five and a half in the Barca game at plus 260. Final score, five-four Barcelona." I was gonna say, there was nine goals scored in that. Wow.
45:42
He says, "I couldn't find, uh, over four and a half, so I parlayed Barca double chance and over four at plus 400 at four to one, but can you tell, uh, Carr to get a little bolder?
45:52
I expect an alt over eight and a half next week." [laughs] Uh, Brian Moriannon- How does Barcelona let up four goals? That, like, that's my bigger takeaway.
46:00
I don't know these teams that well, but, like, come on, Barcelona, you're supposed to be great. Yeah, he did what he had to do. Paul Carr, two more plays today. We'll, uh, repeat them in our, uh, G Bank Best Bets later.
46:09
Mm-hmm. Okay. Brian Moriannon, "With the, uh, Willy Salituris withdrawal, I believe the first couple alternates are the course preparing for the first tee time." Yes.
46:17
I feel like last year there was a last second withdrawal, and they showed a guy and his caddy running to the first tee. Yeah, it happens. I don't, I don't know about you though, Gil.
46:24
If I was a, if I was a professional golfer, take me out of the alternate rotation. Be like, "Oh, wait, I'm gonna show up there, like, prepare for hours, and then I might just not even get to play? Like, nah, I'm good."
46:35
Yeah. Uh- Either qua- either I'm qualifying or no. No, I'll stay at home. [laughs] Biddlin, sprinting to the first tee. [laughs] Hey, is that Kelly?
46:42
Edward LeFevre, "Gil, can you tell us more about golfing with Kornheiser and Wilbon? By the way, the north and south course were both redone several years ago. Who was low man that day?"
46:51
The low man was the guy I was playing with. He was incredible. Um- I, y- yeah, I was so derailed, uh, when you brought that up, like, what? Well, W- Wilbon and I have a mutual friend.
47:00
Wilbon's best friend, Neville, who you'll hear them refer to on PTM- Yeah, I think I have. Yeah... uh, w- used to be my boss at a radio station in Northeast DC years ago. Really? Yeah. Well, Nevy Nevy.
47:11
Did you guys bet anything on it? No. [laughs] There was no bets. There were no bets. This was pre-betting legalization, and those two guys don't really love betting to this day. Wilbon anti-betting? Wilbon, Wilbon. Nah.
47:22
I don't care what Vegas says. [laughs] That's Wilbon's thing.
47:25
Uh, and then Mark Geiger, in-house attorney for A Numbers Game, says, "Jeter and now Ichiro, who also missed unanimous election by one vote, they get to vote for 10 players.
47:35
Let's make the guys living in mom's basements drinking daily 12 packs and watching videos of what no one should ever watch identify themselves." Did you just couple Jeter with Ichiro?
47:48
Jeter should never have been close to anything, you know. You know what my biggest takeaway from this is? I'm kind of... I'm just kind of tired of Hall of Fame arguments.
47:55
Like, it's just every time a big name comes up for something, there's some controversy. I'm not tired of them. I just can't believe how they consistently get things wrong. Again- But, like, it's that.
48:05
Like, I don't like- Like, Albert, Albert Bell is not in the Hall of Fame, Andrew Jones is not in the Hall of Fame, and I'm not even getting to the Barry Bonds argument. Right. And yet, I don't know,
48:14
these guys with counting stats are? It's like- I j- I, like, the outrage on Twitter yesterday, I'm just like, I don't know how I'm supposed to f- how I'm supposed to go nuts about this.
48:22
Just people love, people love their sports, man. They love their enshrinements. Like you said, though, they constantly screw this up. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he's one of our favorites.
48:29
He was kind enough to come on the mega pod and endure the Todd Wishnov experience earlier this year. He now joins us on the radio side.
48:36
He is a national champion at the University of Colorado back in the day, and of course, uh, an NFL player that played for several teams, three teams, one of which was the 1991 Atlanta Falcons, uh, who drafted him, and of course, he got to experience the 1991 Washington Redskins, the greatest team of all time, twice that year, both regular season and playoffs.
48:57
It's the great Mike Pritchard, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He joins us now from across town. How you doing, Pritch? I'm doing great. That was at RFK.
49:06
Like, it would've been different it was in the, uh, Georgia Dome back in the day. Yeah. Come on now. [laughs] No, no, no. By the way, Skins might go back to the RFK site. This is big news for all of us.
49:16
Oh, how about that? Oh. Yeah. I'm on- Yeah... w- what Kelly said, I was on cloud 10 on the break. Mm. That'll get me on cloud 11 right there.
49:22
Um- One of the most intimidating rides to a stadium, though, outside of Buffalo Um, RFK, going to RFK. Yeah. Yeah. I know it- Wait, wait, wait, what do you mean, Mike? Like, the tailgaters?
49:32
Like, just real- Um, yeah, just the way that you gotta get to the stadium, the tailgaters. I mean, yeah, you didn't know if the bus was gonna get jumped.
49:39
[laughs] You know, it was gonna get detoured into some alley, and then that was the end of it, uh, or, or not. I mean, Buffalo was sim- similar. Like, you're going through neighborhoods trying to get to the stadium.
49:49
So RFK, man, we're like, "Okay, let's get to the stadium. Make sure you get on a bus." Wow. "Don't take your own ride to the stadium. Make sure you get on the bus to RFK." Let's make it happen, DC.
49:58
Let's get them back there. [laughs] Uh, okay, Mike, let's talk about, uh, these two championship games, and let's start with the NFC one. Let's do them early to late.
50:06
Uh, the Eagles, six-point favorites, hosting the Washington Commanders, the upstart Commanders, with Rookie of the Year, presumptive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, at the helm. How do you see this game, sir?
50:19
Well, I think Washington's in a sweet spot, uh, Gil and Kelly, because of the youth on the roster. Uh, and they got this [laughs] phenomenal quarterback, right?
50:28
Uh, but they also have enough veteran presence and enough playoff experience and a, and a head coach that's been to a Super Bowl before that y- you know, they know what, they know what to do to get there.
50:37
They know how to get there. They know what to do. They know what the blueprint is. And so, uh, the buy-in is phenomenal. Certainly they're an outlier team, and we know that.
50:44
Uh, I think disrespected a little bit here with this number. I like the number in terms of catching some points. Now, can they win the game and get to the Super Bowl?
50:52
You know, that's something they have to overcome in terms of what Philly does and what Vic Fangio does defensively, trying to take away your, your weapons, uh, in the red zone.
51:02
Uh, top five red zone scoring defense in terms of allowing touchdowns. Uh, but then conversely, though, you got Washington in the top six scoring touchdowns, uh, in the red zone.
51:11
So highly creative, uh, and the dynamic play of Daniels allows them to have multiple options. So if they can overcome those, overcome situations, I think they have a matchup advantage, too, Gil.
51:24
Um, uh, certainly I love the number, catching the points, but a chance to actually beat Philly again, that would be incredible to get to the Super Bowl. Is he the greatest rookie quarterback you've ever seen?
51:35
Um, he's up there. I mean, I... What I love about him is, uh, is, it, it's gone underrated. So, like, we love Lamar Jackson in terms of what he was as a playmaker with his legs. I mean, he was the best athlete.
51:48
I al- I always said this back in his early days, he was throwing to a lesser athlete. He was handing the ball off to a lesser athlete, right? But now he's an accomplished passer, you know? Yeah.
51:58
And, and so D- Daniels is already an accomplished passer. He's a pocket passer, but he has the ability to escape the pocket a la Randall Cunningham, you know, you think about Steve Young, and make phenomenal plays.
52:12
I mean, he was the leading rusher on a football team this year. So he's that dynamic and, and that to me is so hard to defend. Uh, you know, you can take away tendencies if you can, if...
52:22
Or, or certainly, uh, what, what the Commanders like to do, but how are you gonna stop this dynamic player time after time? I mean, that, that to me gets difficult. All right.
52:31
So Mike Pritchard likes the, likes Washington with the points. S- uh, stops short of taking Washington on the money line, though, to which I would say- [laughs] "Pritch, please." That's what I would say to him.
52:41
[laughs] Quinyon Mitchell, I gotta watch that injury, though. I mean, that shoulder- Yeah... could be a problem for him. Okay, let's go to the, uh, what some people consider the marquee matchup, of course. Mm-hmm.
52:49
The one that, uh, sort of the collision course, apologies to Ravens fans, between the, uh, Chiefs and Bills, where the Chiefs are a tick of a favorite now in the AFC Championship.
52:58
Not now, but they have been for the, uh, duration here, since the beginning of the week. They are now two-point favorites, actually a little tick upwards. How do you see this?
53:06
Yeah, I mean, dynasties are dynasties, and certainly Kansas City's a dynasty. I mean, how do dynasties get derailed? Uh, they run out of, they run out of players or coaches move on.
53:15
I mean, I don't see that happening with Kansas City. Uh, i- if you consider Kansas City as a dynasty, why would you go against that? I mean, Buffalo has been there time and time again.
53:25
Uh, I believe they're more physical. Uh, I believe they, they have what it takes to make plays.
53:31
I believe from an energy standpoint, they can go into Arrowhead, and they know what that environment's gonna be and, and, and execute and play well.
53:39
But it's something about these dynasties, whether it was Montana back in the day, um, whether it was your, your Skins back in the day, whether it was the Broncos with Elway, you know, certainly Tom Brady. Um, every...
53:51
We always look to that team, and the Giants, right? To go to the Giants in the Super Bowl. But that was in the Super Bowl, uh, for Tom Brady and the bunch.
53:59
But, you know, for Patrick Mahomes then to host another AFC Conference [laughs] Championship game, which is their goal each and every year, and they accomplished that. Incredible. Uh, they got... I know, isn't it?
54:09
Uh, and then they have a Travis Kelce, who's been load managing all year long, and now he's fresh, with two speed demons on the outside, whether it's Worthy or Hollywood.
54:19
Kansas City has everything that they want offensively. I know the execution hasn't been at the top notch or top level, but yet here they are, uh, with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
54:29
And then defensively, you can't forget how great they've been and how consistent they've been. So I like the Chiefs at home.
54:35
Uh, I'm gonna ride with the dynasty until somebody knocks that dynasty off the, the pedestal there. So it sounds like you think they're winning it all. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, what was it?
54:44
Plus 350, you know, not too long ago, which I, I, I got asked a question to, is, you know, "Do, do you have a team that has value?" And I'm like, "I think Kansas City has [laughs] value at plus 350."
54:54
Uh, just because I, I know we get fatigue, right? We wanna see the other side of things. Um, but until a dynasty gets knocked off, I mean, I, I, I think I gotta ride with that.
55:05
Kansas City Chiefs trying to be the first team to ever three-peat in the Super Bowl era, already in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship. It's incredible. Mike- Yeah... appreciate it, man. Great talking to you.
55:18
Appreciate you guys. Have a great day. Mike Pritchard, everybody, @MIPrichard on Twitter, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. We'll come back.
55:25
We'll review all the bets made on the show today as part of our G-Bank Best Bets of the Day. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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