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Jan 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | January 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | January 29, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. This is a Numbers Game.
0:23
Un partido de numeros, for those listening in Spanish. I like when we go in Español. Yeah. Well, that's for everybody. This show's for everybody is what it is. That's Kelly Bidlin. Me gusta mucho. [laughs] Okay.
0:32
[laughs] Let's not, let's not recite your seventh grade dialogue. Adonde vas? Tos? A clase. Um, great show today.
0:39
Matt Cox will be here from, uh, Three Man Weave, talk a little college basketball with us, the old baloncesto, uh, Kelly. JVT, our senior NBA analyst, to talk both NBA and Super Bowl LIX. Mm-hmm. This just in.
0:53
What are we now? One, two, three, four, uh, 11 days away. No, stop playing that game, man. [laughs] Still, still 11 days away from Super Bowl LIX. Uh, Kelly's got some golf.
1:01
How about some Pebble Beach preview a little later on this hour? We will do that as well. And, uh, hour number two will be packed with, uh, with guests as well. Um, you know, Paul Carr on a soccer heater.
1:13
Jonathan Davis, how about some hockey? How about some midweek hockey- Let's go... from Jonathan Davis, um, VSiN NHL betting analyst. And then Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke. Everybody will be around for that.
1:23
Um, before we do anything else, though, uh, can we go a little country clubbing with some tennis plays that are still not, uh, that still haven't started? Yeah. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah.
1:32
Uh, that's a good way to get you going on Wednesday morning. Again, imagine being these background actors here. You're not even the main actors in a B-roll, uh, shoot. How much do you think they get paid for that?
1:45
It's a great question. Probably 50 bucks, something like that.
1:48
Better question, you think if one of those old folks right here saw, happened to, happened to stumble upon VSiN and saw them, do you think they would call their agent and be like, "I'm not getting paid enough money.
1:57
I need more money"? No. No? No, no, 'cause we're using it properly. Okay. We're not technically making any money off of that, so it's okay. Okay. [laughs] It's just a question.
2:06
Uh, so I don't usually bet indoor hards necessarily as much as I do outdoor hard courts in tennis, uh, but when the numbers come up, the numbers come up, and so we have four plays last night, two of which, they were all dogs, by the way, four dogs, uh, two of which already played last night.
2:20
They split. Should have gotten both of them, but a, a gacking, a gacking in one of these, uh, two matches, uh, led to a split which is still, uh, you know, okay.
2:30
We have two more that haven't been played yet, and that's where I'm getting to here.
2:33
So this morning, if you're interested in some tennis, random tennis action in indoor hard courts in Europe, well, this is the place for you. Where, where, where are we in Europe?
2:43
We're, on the men's side, we're in Linz, uh, excuse me, on the ladies' side, we're in Linz, Austria. Ooh. We're also in Singapore, which is where the matches were last night. Okay.
2:52
Uh, and then on the men's side, we're in, uh, Montpellier, France. Very nice. Very nice on the pronunciation. Uh, I don't know if I was doing it right. Uh, here's what's still to come.
3:01
Rebeka Sramkova I have, uh, over Anastasia Potapova. Uh, Sramkova is probably, you probably get only a few cents worse than what I got it at last night. Again, all these at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
3:17
Every host, every guest, every sport for subscribers, all of our plays at vsin.com/picks. Uh, Rebeka Sramkova at plus 159 over Anastasia Potapova. That is in, uh, Linz, Austria.
3:30
And then also this morning, and it's about, it's sort of like right after we go off the air, sometime after that, uh, in France, Dominic Koepfer, I don't really understand this line at all, and you actually will get it a couple pennies better than mine, I think.
3:43
Mm-hmm. Uh, I'm on Dominic Koepfer at plus 106 over, uh, Alexander Bublik, which prime Bublik, which I didn't think I'd have that phrase this morning. Yeah. Prime- Prime Bublik.
3:52
Prime Bublik, I would never, uh, fade him here, but he has been far away from his prime for quite a bit now. So Koepfer at plus 106, I really don't understand why he's the dog.
4:01
Does feel like it's been quite a while since I've seen, uh, Bublik on one of our graphics, and, uh, he is, you're right, you can get plus 110 on, uh- Yeah. There you go... Koepfer right now. Few pennies better. Yeah.
4:10
And seen at DraftKings, th- that's plus 110 at DraftKings, and then, um, Sramkova plus 150. Bublik, uh, most famous for hating anything that's not hardcore tennis.
4:20
Like, he openly, if like he's on clay, he's like- Really?... "This is stupid." Like, he'll do that kind of thing. All right. That's kind of awesome, actually. Yeah. 'Cause, 'cause I've kind of wondered about that.
4:28
Like [laughs] He's that guy.
4:29
Like, there's gotta be, like you always talk about the pe- you know, the p- people that are better on a certain surface, but like you have to be, there's, there's gotta be a line that gets crossed with how bad you are on some surfaces.
4:40
He, he feels that whoever invented clay court tennis, now keep in mind, like clay, the origins was to like cover over grass 'cause the weather, 'cause grass wouldn't work out in some climates.
4:50
So they'd like, "Let's put k- let's put clay over this. We won't have to worry about it as much." So he's like, "Whoever came up with that idea is ridiculous. We should never be playing on this surface."
4:58
I agree with him. Okay. There you go. I agree with him. Sramkova and Koepfer, if you're interested in some early morning tennis action.
5:03
Now, the other thing that happens around here, and this has gone all the way back to the Betting Dork podcast and the Beating the Book podcast, which by the way, Vegas lifestyle podcast after the show today, 14th annual, with Meltzer like Seltzer, Mark Meltzer, Steve Fezzik, and Bill Krackomberger.
5:18
How about that? Wow. Yeah.
5:20
Uh, but, uh, going back to the Betting Dork days, going back to the Beating the Book, uh, podcast days, and of course right here on a Numbers Game, we have, uh, had a little bit of a cottage industry, a history of really owning Super Bowl halftimes.
5:32
Yeah, you have. Uh, Bruno Mars was the most sort of, you know, uh, uh, in sync with, which is to say that, uh, not only could we like nail his first song and his last song, but like his hairdo.
5:43
Remember the pompadour one? Mm-hmm. And again, these are low-limit offshore things. I think DraftKings started to do first song now. Did they? Oh, wait. You know what? Do I have that, do I have that right?
5:52
I think, I think you're right. They did last year, right? I think so. Anyway, so, so legalized sportsbooks tr- starting to drift into this. Um, Katy Perry, we, we hit that year very easily.
6:02
Um, now here's the thing, though. As the years have gone on, I must admit the sort of Waterloo of this was, do you remember the year that Coldplay did the halftime show? [laughs] Waterloo. Yeah, yeah, I do. Yeah. Yeah.
6:15
Good reference. [laughs] A little Napoleon reference for you. The, uh, the, the, the, the Coldplay one was- I, I remember saying, okay, Viva la Vida, which is their biggest hit, which is, I will rule the world, na-na-na.
6:26
You know that Yeah, I'm actually glad you did that- Yeah... 'cause I don't know any of the na- any of these names. If that did, if he did, it's, in its entirety it was the first song.
6:34
But before they sang Viva la Vida, he got on his knee and sang two bars of another Coldplay song, Yellow, and so Yellow got the money. So once that happened, now it's kind of like, okay- Isn't it kind of a thing?
6:47
You can't be as confident. Well, that brings us to Kendrick Lamar, Super Bowl LIX, which is what I'm getting to now, trying to guide folks to a proper bet here on Kendrick Lamar.
6:57
I have a feeling there is a large possibility of that kind of thing happening. Mm. That's what I'm worried about.
7:02
Now, just to give you a little bit of, you know, the first two days this has been out, the first two days this is... By the way, I take this very seriously.
7:08
For those listening who are like, "Why is he talk-" I take this very seriously.
7:11
Um, the line movement so far, and again, when we talk about line movement, this isn't Spanky coming in with tens of thousands of dollars moving [laughs] moving a football line. Right, yeah.
7:19
This is, like, couple dudes putting down 250 bucks on something that probably moves dramatically. But I do think that the first move makes sense.
7:26
A couple folks went in there and bet on Humble, Kendrick Lamar's, uh, 2017 smash Humble. It's his most streamed song of all time, Kelly. I know you know that. Uh, over two billion streams on Humble.
7:38
Humble now is the favorite at minus 200. What a great-looking graphic from Ryan Bandera. That's a great graphic. That's almost- It's like he cares more about the halftime show- Hey...
7:47
than, than our, our glorious golf de- tournament detail graphics. [laughs] I can, I can tell how interested you are by the fact you're like, "Wow, great graphic." Sorry. It distracts me. It's a great-looking graphic.
7:55
Um, so Humble minus 200, that is your current favorite, again, with 11 days to go. Now, here's the thing. Here's the thing.
8:03
I have a feeling, i- first of all, if it's going to be that, I'm not gonna recommend a bet on that at this point because, uh, it could be, but I have a feel- I'm gonna say there's a, I'm gonna make a safe choice, and then I'm gonna make a more sort of frisky choice.
8:16
Okay. All right. The safe choice for me is the two to one, the plus 200 on Not Like Us. Are you familiar with Not Like Us? No. I do know Humble. I don't know that I know Not Like Us. Okay.
8:26
Not Like Us is his, one of his, he has a couple of these. Right. It's one of his Drake diss songs. Are you familiar that Drake and Kendrick Lamar, they have themselves a beef? Yes. All right.
8:39
For those who don't know, it's a big beef between Kendrick Lamar, I think the kids still call it beef, don't they? Uh, Kendrick Lamar and, uh, Drake.
8:45
It started, you know, back in the day, I don't know if you care about this, but somehow I know this, uh, Kendrick Lamar was, uh, was kind of a nobody, and then Drake had him on his tour. He was, like, opening for Drake.
8:55
Uh, and then, I don't know, like, at some point, like, I think Drake went off with, uh, J. Cole, another rapper, and they're like, "Hey," like, "big three, us two and, and Kendrick Lamar."
9:05
And Kendrick Lamar is like, "Big three? What about big me?"
9:08
'Cause, you know, if you and Matt Brown, let's just use our primetime action partner, if you guys went off and you s- casually included me in a big three, I'd be like, "Hey, thanks guys.
9:15
That was really considerate of you." [laughs] But not Kendrick Lamar. He's like, "No, it's about me." Which is, like, a rap thing, right? So he wants to be number one. Yeah. It was always kind of playful.
9:23
It wasn't really like a, like a- Hype... hostility thing. But Drake kind of took it that way, and he would throw in little jabs in some of his stuff. Anyway, it escalated, and here we are.
9:32
And now Kendrick Lamar has, like, two songs with over a billion streams that are just murdering Drake, verbally speaking. And, um, Not Like Us is the, is the banger of the two. Euphoria is the other one.
9:44
Now, Euphoria, which is way well down on the list at, like, 33 to one, this is what I'm worried about. Mm.
9:50
I'm worried about that he could play a couple bars of the slow jam in Euphoria with Teddy Pendergrass, by the way, the sample, and then go to Not Like Us. But at the safe play is Not Like Us. You're familiar with that?
10:01
Dun, dun, dun, dun? No. No? I'll have to look it, I'll have to look it up during the break. Okay. Um, that's the one where the, uh, the scathing, uh, the scathing [laughs]
10:12
scathing, uh, line is, "Trying to strike a chord and it's probably a minor." [laughs] And he lets it marinate. Anyway, uh, you know, 'cause Drake, never mind. Uh, you don't need to know that.
10:22
So Not Like Us is, is the safe play, I think, at two to one at plus 200. But I would take a flyer on a couple long shots.
10:29
The, the Euphoria scenario, which I just mentioned, which he could play right before that as a first song. I don't know. The other- 33 to one on that one...
10:37
more than that, though, the frisky play, Not Like Us is a safe one.
10:41
I think the frisky play could be, um, Swimming Pools, which is at seven to one, and the reason I say that one is, you're, you're probably familiar with Swimming Pools just by, um, he'd be like, "Kelly, drank.
10:55
Bidlin, drank." Do you know that song? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, okay. All right. Yeah. Blade, drank. Blade, [laughs] drank. Right? That's it.
11:00
Yeah, so that would be, I think, the friskier play is Swimming Pools at seven to one, but Not Like Us at two to one, I think, is the safe play. That is your first song Super Bowl halftime show analysis. Love it. Love it.
11:11
I, I think you, uh, rightfully so pointed out the possibility of starting with one and very quickly- Yeah... transitioning to another. I worry about that. I would be worried about that as well. Yeah.
11:21
We talking about halftime. Yeah, 'cause it just doesn't it naturally feel like that's easier to do too with, with hip hop music like this? Like, you can start- Yes... with one- Yes... and then easily transition, like?
11:30
We talking about halftime, not the game. We talking about halftime. We will talk about the game, though, Super Bowl LIX, with Jonathan Von Tobel. He's on the other side.
11:39
And then stay tuned tomorrow when I break down the, uh, Justin Baldoni, Blake Lively beef. [laughs] That'll be, we'll open the show with that tomorrow. [laughs] JVT next.
11:47
It's the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. They not like us. They not like us. Oh, sorry.
12:04
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12:25
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12:37
Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book, I always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody.
12:42
This is Ice Cold Gambler who says, "Do either of you guys know the reason why the NFL makes us wait until three days before the Super Bowl for the awards to be announced?
12:49
Seems like this weekend would be a more ideal time."
12:51
Uh, Jason, Ice Cold Gambler, I said the same thing last week and I was quickly told, quickly reprimanded by somebody who said, "Obviously, Gil, the reason they wait till next week is to get as many people in to, to..."
13:03
Well, he didn't say it this way, but I, I've, I've finessed it a little bit, is to get as many of the potential winners to New Orleans as possible for the game itself, for, for the, for the spectacle that is Super Bowl week.
13:15
Okay. So they can announce them with those guys present. Whoever- I guess that kind of makes sense, but that would be more the reason behind, like, why did...
13:21
Why, why, how did they decide when to put the awards show, right? That would be the reason for that- Well, coz- cozy it up to the Super Bowl as close as possible- Yeah. Yeah... I guess is what they're saying.
13:30
Duck Fan For Life, OregonGuy71, "The only thing more impressive than Wes Reynolds golf betting run is Gil's pronunciation of tennis players and venues." Thank you very much.
13:37
Russell Smith, "Just an FYI, your four tennis picks are not on the VSiN Pro page. Thanks for the two picks this morning." Is that true? This is always a thing.
13:45
You usually have to click on my name and then they'll appear. We have to check on that. Yeah, I'm not sure. Andre's getting them in right now, I believe. We're, we'll check on that.
13:51
JasonH11, "The heck with the halftime show, I'm going country clubbing. Hit it." [laughs] Thank you. Bruce Dobingan, "Kelly riffing on the graphic while Gil manfully struggles- [laughs]...
14:00
to talk Kendrick Lamar is peak a numbers game. Inquiring minds wanna know, in one word, describe the color of Fezzik's hair." [laughs] That was random. Bob- Brown. Uh, I don't know about that.
14:11
Bobby Knuckles, "This has to be the hippest segment of a numbers game, like, ever." Uh, Mills On Deck, "Amazing breakdown on the Kendrick Lamar versus Drake beef." Thank you. You're very welcome.
14:19
You're, you're very welcome. Uh, "Gil, breaking down the Kendrick and Drake beef might be an all-time ANG moment. Fantastic, my man." Thank you. That was very well done.
14:27
Oh, it j- 'Cause I remembered it, like, a little bit, but you really gave the full explanation. Now I remember it fully. Well, no, I, I really meant the part about, like, the J... And by the way, J.
14:34
Cole was like, "This is stupid. I'm leaving this beef," right? [laughs] Like, 'cause J. Cole's too smart for that. But it, literally, if you and Matt Brown were like, "You know, Matt, you and me are the best.
14:42
You know what? No. You, me, and Gil are the big three." I'd be like, "Hey, thanks, guys. That's great." [laughs] "Really appreciate it." Not Kendrick. Uh, Joe S- Do, do you think you could lead with a diss track, though?
14:50
[laughs] Well, so here's the thing, Drake is suing him for this. I, I- I feel like that lawsuit would only get more complicated- It, uh-... than if you played it at a Super Bowl halftime show. It's a banger.
15:03
That's interesting. I think that's something to keep in mind when betting this. That's a good point. JoeC714. Thank you for the shirt, Joe C. Oh, Joe C with the gifts.
15:12
"This is why Gil is the to- this is why Gil is the talk... This is why Gil is the something. Talking about Kendrick Lamar on a gambling show. Kelly just lost all his cool points with me. A minor." Joe C. Yeah. Yeah.
15:24
Says you, "You lost your only cool points." Thank you, Joe C. Rick Olier, "Hello, Jets Aaron Rodgers. Let me introduce you to current day hip hop Gil. Don't worry, Gil.
15:31
I'm only in my mid-30s, and even I'm like, 'Oh, that guy? Who?' Chiefs money line, let's go." I don't think I understood that one. I, the, the tough part- Yeah... with these is, like, you know the songs.
15:40
This is where, like, Gil has to sing them for me- Right... 'cause you know the songs. I don't know the dang titles, though. Yeah.
15:44
Numbers Guys, "I couldn't find your tennis picks this morning, but they're there now, so let's go clubbing. Looking forward to Kelly letting us back in later in the show. Matsuyama for the win."
15:53
And Stringfellow Hawk, "I like the opening mel- uh, melody angle. How much not like us can he do? It's not radio friendly. Also, what is Kelly listening to? He's less than helpful in this, on this front."
16:02
[laughs] JBT joins us. He's very helpful. He is our senior NBA analyst, but he knows himself some Kendrick Lamar. Joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @meJBT.
16:11
What say you, Jonathan Vontobel? Um, so I threw, I saw the list. Uh, first off, if you're putting money on, uh, Money Trees to open the Super Bowl, um, I'll book it for you.
16:20
I don't think there's any shot that Money Trees is gonna be the opening, uh, track. But I will say this, uh, I think All The Stars is a sneaky one to potentially open up with. We know that Sza's gonna be there.
16:30
She's on that track. Uh, it is a mainstream song that was part of the Black Panther soundtrack, if you remember the movie, the MCU movie.
16:37
So I think that probably hits a lot of people right in the right spot, right where a lot of people are, uh, familiar with it.
16:43
I also am kind of surprised, um, I feel like King Kunta's probably a little bit more popular and has a pretty nifty riff to start and could be a pretty good opener, uh, for Kendrick as well. But I was sur- 20 to 1.
16:54
It, uh, King Kunta? Yeah. Okay. Is All The Stars listed? All The Stars is not- That, so that's the other problem No, yeah, yeah. Yeah. 66 to 1.
17:03
There is a bigger possibility of something not listed playing s- first than there is for any other- Yeah... artist, I think. 'Cause he also, he does feature on a lot of stuff. And let, you want a real wild card?
17:14
You want a real wild card. Are you ready for this? Taylor Swift, Bad Blood? Yes. How did I guess? Yep. I'm- I mean, you see it, right? 'Cause he, he made that, that song sucks. Like, the Taylor Swift version sucks.
17:24
And so if you're gonna put Kendrick on that and then have the, his version c- to go, uh, it's in, you know, Chiefs are in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
17:31
But, um, I definitely think that All The Stars is a sneaky good to find its way maybe closer to the top with, uh, with Sza actually performing. So that's your, that's your bet, All The Stars? That's your- Yeah. Okay.
17:40
I don't, I don't know if I've caught this fine print before on these, uh, Gil. Uh, "Any wager placed after this becomes public knowledge will be considered as no action."
17:48
[laughs] Yeah, so what that is is w- you know, they figure out the, uh, the Friday night before the Super Bowl, they usually have- Yep... the first rehearsal, and so the word gets out. Right.
17:57
So if you're placing your bet, th- all of a sudden, if there's an onslaught of the correct answer Saturday morning, these jokers will refund them all. Yeah. If I can call them- Hm... am I allowed to call them jokers?
18:06
[laughs] I believe so. Yes. I think I just did. Yeah, I think so. Uh, okay, b- I wanna get to s- I wanna crescendo to Super Bowl 59.
18:12
NBA tonight, uh, before we get your pick, I just wanna ask you about, um, when we're talking about... Well, first of all, let me just go broadly. The Spurs and the Pacers were in Paris. Is that correct? Mm-hmm. Yes.
18:26
So they have had four days off, but they had to come back from Paris. Do you bet unders when it comes to those two teams now after that travel? I mean, I don't think so.
18:36
Because if you remember, so it was after, um, Milwaukee had their game postponed against New Orleans, right?
18:41
And NBA media were kind of painting the Milwaukee Bucks as like some, "Oh my God, how could you go through this? This is terrible, the situation." And Giannis had this great quote.
18:49
He's like, "Look, we all have our same, we all have our own seats on the plane." [laughs] Like, it's all kind of nice. Like, we're not really going through a ton. I don't think it's that bad to make that trip.
18:57
They give them adequate rest.
18:59
Um, and if you remember last year, a team like Cleveland, Cleveland actually went out to Paris, played those games, and that started their run where they were actually ripping off wins left and right. Hmm. Okay.
19:08
So I don't think it's that, um, arduous of a deal to come back and make those trips. Excellent use of ard- of arduous as well, by the way. Spurs and, uh, Pacers both back in action tonight.
19:16
Pacers hosting the, uh, the Pistons, they're favorites. Spurs, dogs at home against the Clippers. What did you land on tonight? Uh, so I got two so far.
19:24
Uh, I did bet the Minnesota Timberwolves here against the Phoenix Suns. Uh, we've seen this flip. They're, they're small of road favorites. Kevin Durant on the injury report, uh, with a thumb injury.
19:32
We'll see if he ends up playing or not. Uh, but the, if you look at the last two weeks for Minnesota, they've been playing some pretty good basketball.
19:37
Straight up wise, only four and three, but if you're looking at net rating, they're se- they're seventh best in the NBA, outscored opponents by about seven and a half points every 100 possessions.
19:45
Defense have been playing pretty well. They've been covering games by nearly six points per game. Uh, this team's really rounding into form, especially defensively, and their offense is starting to get better.
19:52
And we've seen that Phoenix has not been playing particularly well on defense. And we know, I think, that games like this kind of bring the best out of guys like Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves.
20:00
Only injury for them is Dante DiVincenzo. Think they're in a good spot there to get that win over a Suns team that might not have Kevin Durant here tonight.
20:07
Uh, and the other, uh, we'll give our boy Scott Seidenberg some credit on this one. Uh, the, uh, Boston Celtics, guys, after a straight-up loss, have been a, a relatively solid team, especially on defense.
20:17
If you look back on what they've been able to do here, I think they're floating around 11 and three.
20:20
Uh, teams, uh, facing Boston after a straight-up loss are now, I think, 11 to three to the under on their team total here. And Chicago's not gonna have Zach LaVine. We'll see if Coby White finds his way out there.
20:30
Uh, he is questionable to play. But, uh, Bulls under 108 and a half on the team total, the other bet that I have tonight. So Timberwolves minus one and a half, Bulls under 107 and a half team total.
20:39
All right, and a shout-out to Scotty Seidenberg on that as well. Yeah. Um, all right. Super Bowl 59, who you taking? Uh, are you making an MVP bet? Are you making a prop bet? What are you doing?
20:49
Yeah, so I have a couple of bets already that I've made. I did take Philadelphia money line. My thought, I think that this is gonna head toward Philly at some point, sooner rather than later.
20:56
Um, so I think that taking plus 110, my logic here, is that this is gonna shrink by the time we get, uh, to kickoff. Uh, I think that there's a shot that this gets to pick. Maybe Philly minus one. We'll see.
21:05
I think Philadelphia is the better team, uh, but I also think that the Chiefs deserve to be favored because of the non-data point, which is they just win every single playoff game imaginable.
21:13
And at some point, you have to give them respect for what they've been able to achieve. But I think on paper, if I were to ask you in a vacuum like, "Hey, just evaluate these rosters.
21:20
Remove the thought that this team has won every single playoff game they've ever played in, essentially." [laughs] Uh, a- and, and tell me which one would be favored on a neutral," I think most would say it's Philly.
21:28
So, uh, I have Philly, uh, the money line plus 110. I also added something interesting yesterday, um, that MGM has, will, you know, either team, right?
21:36
So Chiefs or Eagles for both of them, will they convert a fourth down? The yes on Philly is minus 1,000- Wow... to convert a fourth down. Wow. And I think obviously the tush push is involved there, right?
21:46
Like they think- Yeah. Yeah... but you have to have a short yardage situation- Yeah... in order for that to happen. I thought plus 550 on the no was worth playing.
21:53
I thought that was pretty high, so I, I took no on Philly to convert, uh, to not convert a fourth down at plus 550 yesterday. I don't hate that at all. I, I totally get- Yeah. I love it...
22:02
I to- I totally get why it's priced that way for the r- for exactly how, what, the reasons you state. But plus 550, worth a flyer. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah.
22:11
Um, somet- [laughs] sometimes we do get a little out of control with these. But it, it's, uh, yeah, they have to get in that situation first for it to be, uh, properly priced. Uh- And by the way, real quick. Yes.
22:21
You saw the tush push get turned away, uh, right? That's why they were playing the games with your Commanders, right? Trying to get them to jump offsides and get closer. They turned it away twice.
22:29
Frankie Luvu going all Superman. Yeah, no, they turned it away twice. They did, absolutely did. Um, it is not infallible. It is not infallible. Jon, appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Good to talk to you guys.
22:40
Thank you. Jonathan Montopel chiming in on Kendrick Lamar's first song at halftime as well. Let's go. Didn't see that coming. He was definitely the better person to talk to about that.
22:47
Matty Cox coming up, maybe he's got a thought. And college hoops next. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
23:01
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN. The sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
23:14
It's Gil Alexander. This is my buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody, uh, hanging out. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
23:19
Uh, still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, uh, giving us all his plays. Jonathan Davis on hockey. Maybe we should require a Super Bowl thought from everybody, regardless of your sport.
23:30
Oh, I think that's fair for- Right? Jonathan Davis, hockey- Yeah... but what's your Super Bowl LIX thought? I, I- Paul, Paul Carr coming up on soccer, but what's your Super Bowl LIX thought?
23:38
I think that's fair for, that we ask every guest from now until, uh, kickoff. And, and every guest should give us a Kendrick Lamar choice as well. No? Not that- That, that would be smart... not that part? Yeah.
23:46
[laughs] That's right. Uh, we get tweets that beat you to the book. Corey Henderson775, he says, uh, "After Kendrick Lamar sings that song in the Cool Mode deep voice, three days later, go see the lawyer."
23:57
Yeah, but apparently Drake dropped the lawsuit, so he won't have to see the lawyer is what we're told. DJ Jams, Jam, he, uh, is disagreeing with Jonathan Montopel about the halftime show.
24:06
He says, "All the Stars, uh, will be played in the middle of the show when they bring SZA out on stage. Definitely not the first song played. Oh, and I think they'll play Not Like Us at least three times.
24:16
Maybe only for 10 seconds each, but it's going down." Oh, I completely agree. Not Like Us, it's absolutely being played. I think it's worth a bet first, but it's, it could be the last two.
24:27
It could be the last song played as well, uh, instead maybe, but it's going to have a prominent place in the show. You cannot avoid it. Kelly's nodding accordingly. Uh-huh. He's like, "Uh-huh." The numbers, guys.
24:37
Uh, regarding Fezzik and his robotic mind, "My uncle responding to my aunt's question of, 'Why won't you answer your phone?' 'This phone's for outgoing calls only.'" Yeah, that's kind of [laughs] that's kind of it.
24:47
Uh, James Sott Thanks, Kelly, because when Country Clubman music starts, I get to get up and dance, and my Apple Watch thinks we were standing up. Yeah, there you go.
24:55
Yeah, we're, we're just trying to make America healthier. That's what we're doing. That's right. That's what Country Clubman's all about. Tennis, golf, eh, it's secondary. You know what?
25:02
More than America, Gil, 'cause I think you can watch YouTube TV anywhere. That's true. You can. You can definitely go to vsan.com anywhere. And we certainly know that Canada, we are, we, oh, Ontario.
25:11
[laughs] We are large in Ontario. Big stars in Regina. Love you, Toronto. [laughs] Regi- Which, what you know about Regina? Saskatchewan, man. Roughriders. Oh, okay.
25:20
I thought you were, like, getting, naming streets in Toronto. Like, "I'll meet you on the corner of Spadina and something else." You don't remember our Saskatoon-Regina conversation- Oh, that's right. I do...
25:27
from last weekend? Yeah, that's right. And by the way, he did begin that with an R. [laughs] He did. That's a great tweet.
25:33
[laughs] Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, let's talk some soccer with a man who just moves the chains every time he's on the show, quietly comes on. He's like, "Oh, here's three soccer picks. You guys might enjoy these."
25:43
It's Paul Carr, everybody, from True Media Sports, and of course, the host of the Expected Value podcast. He joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
25:49
By the way, I never mention it, but his Twitter is Paul Carr, cleverly, C-A-R-R, which is awesome to be able to just grab your, uh, your name on, uh, Twitter.
25:58
And of course, he has The Ringer, uh, some- every once in a while now, you're doing a Ringer gambling thing. Is it regular, or is it only at big events? Uh, pretty much every Monday night we record a Ringer soccer show.
26:08
Every Monday night. So we did it- Okay. Yeah. So we put our Champions League big preview up, uh, Monday night, Tuesday morning.
26:13
So you want the long form version of these thoughts and some other picks, then you can tune in there. There you go. I- It's a great pod, Gil. You love it.
26:21
I think, I think I brought it up last time for the soccer hardos, man. All I know it was- That's a deterrence... above my head, but it was a great conversation.
26:27
The thing about Paul is Paul is so polite that I, I'm on here, I'm always talking about True Media Networks, I'm always talking about the Expected Value podcast.
26:33
But I rarely bring up the Ring- that he- the fact that he's doing this Ringer soccer gambling podcast, and that's on me, man. That's on me. Every week. Check it out. That's all right. Um- It's all right...
26:43
speaking of the Champions League, which I don't know if I've spoke of before, but let me just say speaking of, um, can you explain the format? [laughs] Let's just start- Yeah...
26:52
there for the, uh, for the average American sports fan. And I know we do this a lot, but it's even more important this year because they've changed the format of the tournament.
27:01
Again, it's basically like playing the NCAA tournament at the same time as the regular season, where all these clubs are from different countries and leagues in Europe, and you take the top few and throw them into Champions League.
27:11
Uh, historically, last 20-plus years, there have been 32 teams, eight groups of four. You play the group stage in the, you know, September through December, and you're in the knockout stage in February.
27:21
This year, they expanded to 36 teams in one big group. Oh. They call it the league phase. [laughs] God. So today we are getting 18 simultaneous games- Yeah. [laughs] Oh, man...
27:34
and trying to track who's where in the standings. Like, I might just stare at a live standings table all day- [laughs] Rather than watch an actual game?... and watch the game.
27:42
Watch the team little, you know, up- Yeah... down, up, down. Um- Paul, are they doing that, uh, what, what's like the Red Zone, uh, rip-off show they do? Yeah. Uh- Gold Zone?...
27:50
CBS has a, yeah, Paramount or CBS has a Golazo show they call it. Golazo. That's the one- Yeah... to check out, Gil... they basically run through all of them. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
27:58
Yeah, it's gonna be easier than trying to find games that matter as, so here- So this is- Yeah... this is a monster, then, global soccer day right here. I, I think so. It's, they've never done it like this before. Yeah.
28:07
So we'll see. But what's at stake, so again, 36 team table or standings, the top eight will get a bye to the round of 16, and I believe only two have clinched a top eight spot. So technically there's six up for grabs.
28:22
If you finish between ninth and 24th, then you advance to essentially the round of 32, or the playoff round. Ah, interesting. And then the bottom eight are eliminated.
28:31
So there's really not much difference between ninth and 24th. I mean, there's seeding things, but I don't think anyone's gonna worry about those too much. But if you can get in the top eight, you get a bye.
28:41
You know, it's essentially the one seed in the NFL, which is obviously huge. So that's where it could get wild with some teams trying to get in that top eight, and goal difference is your first tiebreaker. So- Oh, man...
28:52
there's gonna be some, there's some weird lines out there because teams are so incentivized to win by a lot of goals today. Okay. So this, yeah, this creates all kinds of, of different layers of handicapping then. Yep.
29:04
Uh, this is pretty interesting. By the way, Liverpool remains the short shot to win the Champions League at plus 450. Right. Real Madrid and Arsenal both at 6 to 1, followed closely by Barcelona at plus 650.
29:15
Bayern Munich the only other one in single digits. Uh, you think that's all properly priced, by the way? Yeah. Yeah, it's about right. Okay.
29:21
And, and Liverpool's a good example of a weird price today because they've clinched the top two. They're going to advance.
29:26
They're playing PSV, and normally Liverpool would be a decent favorite here, but PSV on the three-way is favored at plus 125 or so because they technically haven't advanced, and they even have an outside shot at top eight.
29:38
But realistically, they're just trying to get through, so a win's pretty important for PSV.
29:41
And Liverpool, you know, we haven't seen lineups obviously, but I wouldn't expect they would play all their starters in this one. PSV Eindhoven out of the Netherlands? That's right, Kelly. Wow. As you know. This guy.
29:52
This guy. You can go home. You're done. Yeah, thank you. You're done for the day. You, you keep your Kendrick Lamar, all right? [laughs] You, you bring me in for European soccer. You've done all you could do.
29:59
It's awesome. Uh, there's also, you were also mentioning off-air, and you- I guess you do have a play in this, so let's start with this, that when it comes to Stuttgart and PSG, that they are incentivized for?
30:12
Mostly to, both of them to draw in a way. So they're in 24th and 22nd place, and again, the top 24 advance. Either goes through with a win. PSG definitively goes through with a draw. Stuttgart may go through with a draw.
30:26
They do need some other results to go their way. So there's a world where th- they kick around the ball for the last half hour of this game or something. Oh, God. We've seen, we saw this at Euros last year. Yeah.
30:36
I think it was Romania, Slovakia, where a draw would send them both through, and they both scored in like the first half hour, and then it was kinda like, "Ah, yeah, we're good." Um, so it's not for sure
30:46
that they would do this, but you look, the draw price is- Plus 130 or so- Wow... which is- Which is super low... ridiculous. Yeah. Yeah. You're usually, you're rarely below plus 200, and usually closer to plus 300. Okay.
30:56
Wow. But you still went over two and a half on this. I, I- Explain that to me... did. I, I can't... Like, this would normally be priced, over two and a half would be at least minus 200 or so.
31:07
Your default over-under line would be three, three and a half for this game. I just don't, I'm not totally convinced that they'll kick it around, at least the first half or so. PSG, very potent offense.
31:17
Stuttgart, not a super stringent defense. Uh, so I think we get some goals early. Uh, you know, PSG could get through with a loss, but probably not. I just think, you know, two-two very in play.
31:30
Uh, two-one, you know, if they just decide they're not gonna bother. Because again, if Stuttgart wins, they're definitively through, so they have some incentive to...
31:39
You know, you win, you don't have to worry about anything else. Uh, PSG, again, probably through with, or through with a draw.
31:45
But I just think that price, that even money over two and a half, is just too juicy, or not juicy in this case, to pass up. Okay. You were also mentioning off-air Bayern is, like, a- [laughs]...
31:53
minus a million against, uh, Slovan Bratislava as well. Yeah. Bra- Slovan Bratislava's eliminated. Bayern has to win by a lot and probably get a lot of help to get top eight, but there's a chance.
32:04
So their line, I've seen it as high as, like, minus 30,000 to win this game. Uh, it was off the board a good chunk of yesterday. Just some wild stuff. The default, uh, spread was, like, minus four and a half in this one.
32:16
So some wild lines as a result of the incentives here. Okay. Back to the official picks, though. Stuttgart, PSG, over two and a half goals at even money for Paul. Uh, then you, uh, you like an upset here.
32:27
Or no, not an upset. You're taking the goal- Not necessarily... line here. I see. Okay. I've, I've, uh, been fading Man City all year fairly successfully. Club Brugge, plus one and a half.
32:37
Now, I played this yesterday at plus 170. This morning I saw it, like, plus 135-ish, which I can't really recommend below plus 150. But, uh, Brugge has often been a Champions League doormat. Not as much this year.
32:51
They beat Aston Villa. They beat Sporting. They've been competitive, uh, against Juventus, AC Milan. In a game, they lost three-one but had a red card.
33:00
Even Dortmund, they lost three-nil, but it wasn't that much of a rout. So Club Brugge, they need a draw to go through. They would obviously go through with a win as well.
33:09
And they could even get through with a one-goal loss, depending on how the games go. Manchester City has to win, so they're obviously incentivized to go for it as they can.
33:19
Uh, but yeah, this could easily be a Man City two-one type of game, and they could both shut it down in the last 20 minutes 'cause City would have to win and Brugge might be through with a, a one-goal loss.
33:29
So I like a plus one and a half at plus money, and I think that's why the price has dropped so much in the last 24 hours. All right. And then also over three and a half goals in the Barcelona-Atalanta game.
33:39
I have, uh, some very s- sophisticated analysis here. [laughs] It is, did you see the Benfica-Barcelona game- Yes! [laughs] Yes, we did, Paul. We did. We did. That's pretty much it.
33:49
Uh, Barcelona doesn't have much to play for. They've clinched the top eight spot. But Atalanta is in seventh and probably has to win to stay in the top eight.
33:56
So Barcelona, again, maybe the best attack in the world, terrible defense. Atalanta is more an open team as well.
34:03
Uh, they got a couple injuries that are out, but it shouldn't matter 'cause I think they're gonna go for it. So there's just gonna be goals here one way or the other.
34:08
Doesn't really matter who Barcelona starts, if they decide to rest people. They've got enough attacking talent on the bench to still put in a couple goals. So over three and a half minus 120. All right.
34:17
So where should we ladder up to, Paul? About six and a half today- [laughs]... this week? Is that where we should go? Yeah, you can find, like, over, over eight and a half at plus 6500 if that sounds good, yeah.
34:24
Stuttgart-PSG, two-two. Final score is 12 to one. Super Bowl LIX, who you got, Paul? I'll hit it. Uh, Chiefs. I'm in Kansas. If I don't pick the Chiefs, then they kick me out. [laughs] Is that how that works?
34:34
It's a standoff. Yeah. Wow. Yeah. I didn't know that. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Enjoy the games today. Full day of soccer. You bet. The Champions League. How about some hockey with Jonathan Davis?
34:43
That's on the other side. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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