Search
Login
Sign Up
Jan 31, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | January 31, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | January 31, 2025
00:00
34:47
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, let's have some fun.
0:12
No Gil Alexander this morning on the Numbers Game. Joe Serallo here in for Gil, alongside Kelly Bedlam, the legend, my man. We're gonna have a great two hours together as we continue to get ready for Super Bowl 59.
0:24
A lot of other action going on in the world of sports. How about the great guests that we've got for this edition of a Numbers Game?
0:31
Paul Carr gonna join the show shortly as we break down some weekend Premier League action. We'll look at the matches going on on the pitch the next two to three days, as well as some futures market action as well.
0:42
Dallin Cuff gonna join the show to kick off hour two of the program as we look at a locked and loaded college hoops slate for the weekend to come. Kelly, how are you, my man? I'm excited to be working with you.
0:55
First time since August. Uh, it's been a little bit. It's great to have you in, Joe.
0:59
Gil, uh, with the day off, so, uh, he gets to enjoy that, doing some things i- in the big city, in the big city this weekend, uh, is Gil Alexander. So good to have you in, Joe.
1:08
I was wondering about something, and I love that we get to keep the crew on their toes on a Friday.
1:13
[laughs] Because I'm like, you know, whenever I watch Joe Serallo and cashing out at home, I just think to myself, "Joe s- Joe looks like a louder guy in the studio, and I'm a louder guy."
1:23
So that might be quite a test for Darnell, our audio op today. So Darnell, happy Friday, man. You get to deal with that. [laughs] Gonna just see who can be the louder, uh, louder co-host here for the next two hours.
1:33
Look, when you're doing three hours solo every night- [laughs]... you've gotta keep the energy, all right? That's right.
1:38
I can't have the team in the back falling asleep when I'm doing this thing from 8:00 to 11:00 PM most nights, but, uh, I'll try to keep it a little more tame here for the next two hours. Kelly, let's get into it.
1:47
The 59th big game just over a week away. I'm sure you and Gil have been breaking it down all week when you're not talking about my, uh, pro tennis playing lookalike here on the program.
1:57
[laughs] But let's get into some prop bets that we like off the top here. Kansas City, Philly. First off, we've got the new Super Bowl betting guide- Mm-hmm. That's right... out right now, vsin.com.
2:08
If you're a pro subscriber, you've gotta get on that. So I know everyone's got their, uh, score and their Super Bowl MVP pick in that. What did you submit for that, Kelly? Oh, that was, uh, I had Chiefs...
2:20
Let's see if I can remember the exact final score. I put in 31 to 27, I believe, is what I put in for the Kansas City Chiefs. So yes, Chiefs to cover, and the over is where I'd be looking.
2:31
And just looking at side and total here, Joe, I, I think really the b- the story of the week so far, um, look, it's the Super Bowl in 2024.
2:38
We don't see a lot of movement on these numbers usually when it comes to side and total- Right... uh, in the first week.
2:44
Uh, we'll see some usually after it opens, and then it usually gets quiet for a bit, and then maybe it will change a little bit as we get closer to the game.
2:50
I think the surprise to me, though, is that this to- total's still hovering around 49. 48 and a half, 49 is where we're seeing it at, uh, basically across the board. DraftKings with a 48 and a half.
3:00
Everywhere else I'm looking at on my odds screen, it's a 49 right now. Uh, a couple key offshores at 49 and a half. But I think that, I think we're gonna see this go up.
3:08
I, I'm a little surprised we still haven't hit 50, uh, mainly across the board.
3:11
And not a bet for me yet, but I'm watching this total, 'cause if it, if it gets below, gets to 48 or below, I'm probably jumping in with a little bit of money on the over in this game. I mean, wouldn't you have to?
3:22
Like, the fact that this was 49 and a half a minute ago, and now it's already ticked down, there's gotta be buyback incoming, and I would expect tons of it, frankly.
3:29
Because when I was capping this one, when I was figuring out where my numbers would be, I had 51 and a half to 52 and a half as the total in this game. I mean, look, I know Kansas City has a great defense.
3:39
Steve Spagnuolo, you can never go against him in the Super Bowl. Like you, I'm on the Chiefs in this one as well. But at the end of the day, you could have a Steve Spagnuolo defense on one side.
3:48
You could have Vic Fangio's number one defense in the NFL on the other side. You know these offenses are gonna put up fireworks.
3:54
You know Mahomes is gonna get his, and you know Saquon and Jalen Hurts and AG- I mean, they just have too many weapons to be denied. Yeah, it's gonna... I, I think it's a really interesting matchup.
4:03
I know there, I know there's a little bit of Chiefs fatigue out there. I get it to a degree. Not for me. To a degree, yeah.
4:07
[laughs] If you've been betting on them or you're a Kansas City fan, you don't have any fatigue, that's for sure. But I think it's a fascinating matchup, 'cause I do think that...
4:14
I think the biggest mi- s- uh, singular mismatch in this game is that, is that Philadelphia defensive front versus Chiefs offensive line that's had to m- you know, uh, move around some pieces there. I, I...
4:26
It's got a little weaker in the middle. And really interested to see how those defensive tackles of Philadelphia look to blow up this game, uh, o- on that side of the ball.
4:34
But I think what that mean, what that's gonna mean for the Chiefs offense is they're gonna be throwing a little bit more than we're, than what we're used to this regular season.
4:42
We know the Chiefs save some of the good plays for these type of games anyways. So I expect to see some fireworks there.
4:47
And man, don't look now, but this Chiefs rush defense is not what it was at the be- middle of the year, beginning of the season. And Saquon Barkley, he could eat again in this game.
4:56
It wouldn't surprise, uh, it wouldn't shock me at all. Yeah, look, I'm not playing the 115 and a half, uh, for Saquon. These totals are just coming in astronomically high week after week.
5:05
But y- what you said about Kansas City's run defense, James Cook, you can argue part of the problem with Buffalo in the AFC Championship game was they didn't feed James Cook enough.
5:14
Kansas City sold out to stop Josh Allen's legs- Mm-hmm... and they were very successful in doing that. I mean, what was he, 0 for 4 on tush pushes? Yeah. I know he had the one where he went over the top.
5:23
But when he actually tried to go behind his left guard's rear, uh, they were 0 for 4 on such plays, so. But, but even think about that going over the top, Joe. They were so much in his head, right? Yeah.
5:32
They're in hi- in... They were in the Bill's head from stopping that, that Josh Allen had to go over the top at midfield- [laughs]... which, like, you should never do because that ball- It's goal line only...
5:41
can get smacked out of there. Yeah, exactly. And that's what they were talking about, because I think di- didn't he fumble it on that play? He fumbled it himself. And then he recovered his own fumble, but exactly.
5:48
That's a goal line only play right there out of Allen. And Kansas City just did a great job selling out to stop him. But James Cook, while he was limited, just 13 carries, he got his, almost 90 yards on 13 carries.
5:59
So I think if you're the Chiefs right here, you've gotta sell out to stop someone. Are you gonna sell out to stop Saquon, or are you gonna sell out to stop Jalen Hurts and not let him beat you with his legs?
6:08
You make Jalen Hurts throw the ball- Yeah... and then our predictions come to fruition. You win the game. Right. I mean, look at Jalen Hurts' Super Bowl LVII. He was 27 of 38, 305 yards.
6:17
Statistically, he had a really good performance. But because he had to throw the ball damn near 40 times, I think that's what sunk Philadelphia.
6:24
You look at Hurts in the playoffs, in his three losses, they're also the only three playoff games he's ever thrown 30 or more attempts in. He's never had to throw the ball 30 times in a postseason win.
6:35
He's done it in all three of his postseason losses. So with that said- Can I interest you in any Jalen Hurts overs on completions or attempts?
6:43
It's, it's interesting, 'cause I, I have no bets yet on the Philadelphia prop side, because I thi- I would be, I would be more interested in getting involved with those live, Joe.
6:52
'Cause I wanna see how they, how they attack this game pr- offensively, Philadelphia.
6:57
Because I do think, given the, given, given the, uh, uh, problems with stopping the run for Kansas City recently, I think Philadelphia's gonna try to run.
7:05
Like you're talking about, though, I'm not gonna be shocked at all if Kansas City kinda sells out to load up the box, try to stop the run. And then Jalen Hurts also sh- has struggled this season against the blitz.
7:15
So even on passing downs, I expect the Chiefs to be sending guys. I think you're gonna see a lot of Chiefs defenders near that line of scrimmage.
7:21
And like you're talking about, it, that opens up the possibility of one-on-one coverages or looser zone coverages on the outside for A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith. We know the Chiefs have struggled against tight ends.
7:32
You've heard that probably a million times already this week. Yeah. Dallas Goedert, I know there's a lot of bets on overs out there. So it could end up equaling a, a huge Jalen Hurts game. Wouldn't surprise me at all.
7:43
I gotta see how the Chiefs are gonna, uh, wind up, though, against this, uh, Eagles offense first, and then I would maybe be more interested in getting in on live props. Remember, we got live everything these days.
7:53
There's no reason you have to bet anything pre-game when you've got all these live options.
7:56
So I, I'm in a similar position as you, Kelly, where so far, the four plays that I have in pocket in the prop market are all on the Kansas City side. Yeah, me too. All four of them. Yep.
8:06
But I will, it's a matter of when, not if, I will be doing something fun with Jalen Hurts. Because if you go up the ladder on his attempts and his completions, now this is courtesy of our friends at DraftKings right now.
8:19
His over-under on completions, 18 and a half, right? And that's plus 102 to the over. If you go for just one more completion, 20 plus, right? If you take over 18 and a half, obviously you're looking for 19.
8:31
So if you go 20 plus, you're getting 30 more cents on that. You're getting plus 133 for 20 or more completions. He had 27 in Super Bowl LVII. Now, on 25 or more completions, you're getting seven to one on that.
8:45
It's not a full unit play for me, but I'd be remiss not to sprinkle something on that. When he had 27 the last time these two squared off in the Super Bowl.
8:53
Attempts, also, this is probably my favorite, 30 or more attempts, plus 160. I just feel like he's gonna have to throw the ball. Kansas City's going to make him win this game with his arm.
9:03
They are not going to let him and Saquon win it with their legs. Steve Spagnuolo's too good. Andy Reid and this team, uh, they've been there, done that, you know? Yeah.
9:09
That, that would be such a rookie mistake if they let Philly win this game with their legs, and this team's just been around too long to let that happen.
9:16
Yeah, the completions verse attempts is always an interesting conversation. I, I know that there's, uh, others on the Mahomes side that I've, I've heard.
9:23
We've had, we've had guests on the show this week that have bo- been on both, either attempts or completions when it comes to Mahomes.
9:29
And with Hurts, I, I think the attempts is usually all about game script to me, because it is... Okay, what are the, what are the Eagles offense gonna have to do?
9:38
And then attempts always becomes a little bit more valuable, too, if you think a team's gonna be playing from behind, right? When they're gonna be forced to throw the ball. So I, I, I don't hate either one of those.
9:47
I, again, I'm gonna wait to see live, but it wouldn't shock me at all if that's how, if that's how the game played out.
9:52
Simply, simply, Joe, because if you're the Chiefs and Spags, the one thing you can't have happen is that you lose the Super Bowl because Saquon Barkley ran all over you. Right. A- and that's...
10:02
And look, we're both on Kansas City. You said what, 31-27? Yeah. My score was 30-24. I think I had the most lopsided Chiefs win in the entire betting guide. [laughs] KC by six.
10:12
Uh, but if we're both on Kansas City, then that would certainly feed into the over on attempts. If Philadelphia's playing from behind, Hurts is gonna have to throw the ball.
10:21
All right, just over a minute to go here, Kelly. We both like Kansas City. We both like points. Given our final score predictions, we'd both be on the over.
10:27
Anytime touchdown plays, who gets in the end zone for our Chiefs? Oh, man, great question. I haven't bet any of those yet. Kareem Hunt would be a look for me early.
10:35
I, uh, yeah, well, wait, wait- Six straight playoff games with Kansas City he scored. Is that the number? I believe that is correct.
10:39
We gotta cr- we, we're gonna have to talk our Chiefs props here, but the ones I've attacked so far are the rushing props. I played Kareem Hunt as soon as they came out.
10:46
Kareem Hunt over on his rushing yardage, and then Isiah Pacheco under on his longest rush, uh, of the game. That, those were... I, I jumped on those early. This could change. I bet these a little, same, similar props.
10:57
I bet them a little heavier in the AFC championship ga- game, Joe, 'cause it was very, it had become very apparent, and I think it was very obvious after the AFC championship game, that Isiah Pacheco isn't fully healthy yet, or he ain't fully right with this offense yet.
11:10
Yeah. And Kareem Hunt's got a lot more burst back there for them. So wanted to target the overs on him, unders on Pacheco. The only hesitancy for me, it's two weeks.
11:19
It's two weeks off, two weeks more for Pa- Pacheco to maybe get a little healthier, if that is a problem. So dialed back a little bit, but those are the ones that I bet.
11:27
Last time these two teams met, everyone was worried about that Mahomes high ankle sprain. He had two weeks off, ran rampant against the Philadelphia Eagles. We were on Mahomes in that one.
11:35
I've got a Mahomes rushing prop in this one I love, and you'll hear about it on the other side. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Serallo. It's a numbers game, more to come.
11:42
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
Folks, get ready for Big Game LIX with a big deal to match. You can score 59 bucks off a VSiN Pro annual subscription when you sign up using the promo code ANG.
12:13
For just a buck 81, you'll get a full year of VSiN Pro access to everything we offer, which includes daily best bets, exclusive betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, 24/7 video access, and so much more, like our all-new Super Bowl betting guide with expert picks, predictions, and prop betting strategies to help you win big.
12:33
This special offer ends after the Super Bowl, so don't miss out. Sign up now, vsin.com/subscribe, promo code ANG to get a full year of VSiN Pro for just $181. That's vsin.com/[electronic music] slash subscribe.
12:47
And Numbers Game continues. I'm Joe Serallo in for Gil Alexander on this beautiful Friday morning. He's Kelly Bidlin, of course, alongside myself here at the desk.
12:56
And now we're gonna take you to the Progressive guest line. It's time for some soccer talk with our guy Paul Carr from True Media Sports joining the program. Paul, how are you?
13:06
Let's open up with the draw from the Champions League this morning. What was your biggest takeaway from that? Yeah, so this is the draw for the, they call it the playoff round.
13:14
It's basically the round of 32, but there's only eight match-ups because eight teams have got byes to the round of 16. Uh, the headline is very clearly Manchester City against Real Madrid.
13:23
Both underachieved a little bit during the league phase, so they fell down and then got drawn against each other here. They're meeting for the fourth straight time. Uh, Man City was the favorite before the season began.
13:34
They've really struggled, so they're not right now. And Real Madrid is the defending champion and seems to win every year.
13:39
So you've got two of the, whatever, five best clubs in the world on the whole, uh, playing in this round, and one of them obviously won't advance. So that's your headline by far.
13:47
All right, Paul, you, uh, you're, you've been red hot on the show. I believe it was two and one the other day in Champions League again.
13:54
Uh, what, wanna start here with a question Tim Lawson tweeted into the show, as he often does. Always appreciate. Wow.
13:59
Said, "How much consideration does Paul Carr give midweek Eur- Europe tournament matches when handicapping weekend EPL matches? Is player rest a factor after several matches in two weeks?"
14:12
Yeah, it's a thing for sure, especially if there's, you know, an extra day or two for one team or the other. Obviously, it depends on lineups.
14:19
You know, you look at a team like Liverpool this week, and they rotated heavily because their Champions League game didn't mean much, so, you know, obviously that doesn't really factor in. Um, it's a thing.
14:27
It's, I would say maybe a little bit ig- or it gets to be more of a thing later in the season, where the legs are just getting more tired, and it also depends on the squad.
14:37
You know, a team like Aston Villa, which is in Champions League for the first time and just doesn't quite have the depth, or Man City really, because, uh, you, you could argue, you know, they don't have the depth either.
14:47
It, it's not gonna slow me down this week, as we'll get to. But it's always something you gotta keep in mind. Who played? Uh, how much they played. How thin or, uh, deep is this team?
14:57
It's always something you have to factor in. Yeah, Paul, you pretty much took care of the segue right there. Let's get into that Man City contest on Sunday, taking on Arsenal. You find a lot of value in this match, huh?
15:08
Yeah, this is the, the big one of the weekend, and I'm not sure I've bet on Man City all season. I've been fading them pretty heavily and successfully, at least since October.
15:16
So, uh, but I like the price on a Man City win at Arsenal. Uh, it's at plus 270, and for a little context, when they played last season at Arsenal, City was plus 150 to win the game.
15:30
And yes, City is not as good as they were. I'm not sure Arsenal's as good as they were either.
15:35
They certainly are not in attack as good as they were last year because Bukayo Saka, uh, is injured, and they don't even have Gabriel Jesus to either come off the bench or start up top.
15:44
So I'm just not sure that Arsenal ha- they definitely don't have the firepower. Um, I, I would put it this way.
15:50
If you were picking a combined lineup of these teams, you might take Arsenal's whole back four and maybe their midfield, but you would take City's attacking front three.
15:59
So that's kind of where you're gonna see a strength versus s- versus strength match up here. Uh, City's attack has been clicking lately. De Bruyne is healthy.
16:07
Foden is looking like Phil Foden again after a pretty awful first half of the season. Uh, so again, it's plus 270. I'm not saying Man City's definitely winning this game.
16:16
But I think that price has just gotten too inflated, and given Arsenal's limited attacking options and abilities, I think it's a pretty good price to get here.
16:25
Yeah, if you've been listening to this show throughout, uh, throughout the season so far, you have not heard Paul Carr on Man City, uh, at all and against him, against Man City very often. Yeah.
16:33
So, uh, surprising play there. You know it's a good price. Uh, sticking it out to Paul. Let's start with Saturday. I know you got three bets for us. We got Everton, uh, taking on Leicester here.
16:42
What, what do you like in this game? Match. Yeah, I'm not su- I'm not sure. You can call it a game. That's okay. [laughs] We're in America. We can, we can use either one.
16:49
I thought I'd be the first one to make that blunder. [laughs] No, it's all good. Well, well, it's, this is a conversation that would come up a lot at, at ESPN and all the TV I've worked on.
16:57
You call it what you call it, you know? If I try to use certain British soccerisms, footballisms, then it sounds like I'm trying too hard, or my tongue gets tangled.
17:05
Uh, so it's just really what's natural, and you know, we can all be adults here and know that there's different terms that mean the same thing. Yeah, yeah. Well, let's get back to the fixture though. Yeah, yeah.
17:12
The specific- The fixture. Well, yeah. But yeah. When in doubt, contest, right? When in doubt, contest. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so, uh, Everton, Leicester City.
17:19
Uh, I'm not sure I've bet Everton all season either, but I have faded Leicester City a lot. I mean, they're newly promoted. They're relegation threatened for a reason.
17:26
They're, I mean, they're that, that's just kind of the caliber of team that they have. Uh, Everton has been in that relegation battle for much of the season. They're still kind of there. But they've stabilized a bit.
17:37
David Moyes, their former manager, who was manager when Tim Howard and such were there, uh, is back. He took over three games ago.
17:44
He's got two wins and a competitive loss against Aston Villa, and really just stabilized the defense especially. Uh, they're giving up worse shots.
17:51
I mean, that's a good thing for a defense, and they're generating enough offensively to create a few good chances per game, convert one or two, and get three points. Uh, Leicester, they have a new manager too.
18:02
Rudi Garcia, who was a Manchester United star but doesn't have a lot of managerial experience. They haven't-- They've been almost less attacking under him than they were before.
18:11
Six shots per game on the road under Rudi Garcia, and most of those opponents were a little bit better than Everton. But again, Everton's defense has been better the last few games.
18:20
I just like Everton to straight win this. They're the better team. They're at home. Minus 130 isn't too juicy for me. He's Paul Carr with us on the Progressive guest line right now.
18:28
Make sure you follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr. Check out the Expected Value podcast. You've given out a couple of sides for the weekend, Paul. How about a total? What do you like in the Tottenham match on- Yeah...
18:38
Saturday? Or Sunday- Brentford... excuse me. Yeah, so this one's Sunday. Brentford, Tottenham. Uh, Brentford, both these teams have really been not quite over machines, but pretty close so far this season.
18:48
So I like over three and a half at minus 120. I don't know what the result is gonna be here. Like, if you told me it's four-nil either way- Or three three. Be like, "Sure, yeah, I can see that."
18:59
Uh, but I think there's gonna be goals. Both teams top six in goals scored, bottom seven in goals against, and all the underlying numbers support similar things.
19:07
Tottenham gives up really good shots, so that's obviously bad for a defense.
19:11
Brentford is more patient, takes best shots, finds good transition opportunities, and Tottenham's defense has been not that great in that situation especially. Uh, Brentford, like I said, not a defensive juggernaut.
19:22
They've allowed the most shots in the league. So all that to say, both teams decent to good in attack, not so good defensively. Tottenham is very thin because of injuries. Like, half their ideal starting lineup is out.
19:34
Uh, I think the second half especially could get open as these teams kind of wear down and things get a little bit crazy. So over three and a half minus 120, my Brentford Tottenham pick on Sunday. Like it, I like it.
19:46
Paul, what, wanna talk to you real quick about top goalscorer for Premier League. I know we ta- hit on this a couple weeks ago, a few weeks ago. Yeah. Uh, this race is really, really fascinating.
19:54
You got Mo Salah right now with 19, Erling Haaland 18, uh, and then Alexander Isak with, uh- I got it... 17. Think I, yeah, I got it. Uh, Haaland even money right now, Mo Salah plus 110, Isak five to one.
20:07
Anything on the board there that you think, think has some value to bet right now? Yeah, couple kind of conflicting takes, but, uh, yeah. Isak five to one is your longer shot if you want it.
20:16
He took a penalty last weekend, which we kind of thought he would, but he hadn't taken one so far this season for Newcastle, in part because they'd only had one all season. So that's a good sign.
20:26
You know, Isak has a chance to make a run if anyone's coming from deep. Uh, the flip side is, like, look, Erling Ha- Erling Haaland is even money. I mean, he was juicy before the season.
20:35
I forget, it might've been, like, minus 150, maybe worse- Yeah... for him to win Golden Boot. Um, and City's attack is getting healthy. Mentioned De Bruyne is back.
20:45
So I mean, even money on Haaland, like, that, that's pretty tempting that he could just rip off another, you know, 10 goals in seven games type of thing like he can so easily.
20:55
'Cause he hasn't been bad this season, even though that's the perception, 'cause, look, he's right there at the top of the Golden Boot race.
21:00
So I don't hate putting something on him at even money because I don't know if you'll see that good a price on him the rest of the year.
21:07
Paul, I'm curious, before we let you go here, you gave out a pretty, pretty juicy value play with Man City earlier on in the segment. Any other value on the card this weekend?
21:17
I mean, you mentioned the Brentford Tottenham game. Would you, at plus 225, want to take Tottenham there? You said you could see that one go four-nil either way. Any other value, any dogs that really, uh, have your eye?
21:29
Yeah, Tottenham, n- no, I don't trust Tottenham that much. [laughs] Uh, one of the other big games of the week is Bournemouth against Liverpool. Bournemouth's at home.
21:36
They've been playing, like, a top six or so team this season. Pretty tempted there. Like, draw's at plus 320. Any time you get a draw over 300, that's, uh, pretty enticing to me.
21:47
So there, if you wanted a safer play, you know, Bournemouth double chance, plus 115 or so I don't hate. Uh, but if you're looking for another long shot, Bournemouth Liverpool draw plus 320 is probably where I'd go.
21:57
I love it, and seeing as high on Bournemouth as plus 360 now- Ooh... in the market on DraftKings. He's our guy, Paul Carr. Thanks so much for the time, man. Appreciate you hopping on. You bet. Have a good weekend.
22:07
Make sure you follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr. Check out that Expected Value podcast. Kelly, how much soccer betting are you doing these days? You know what? It's always been one of those sports I wish I bet more.
22:17
I, I... But luckily, we have Paul on so often, if you've just been tailing him i- in this past month or two on the show, you've been doing quite well, 'cause he's been on a heater.
22:24
Uh, but it's one of those, it's a fascinating handicap to me, and I, I love getting involved with sports where it's a really interesting handicap, so. I mean, my only issue, when do these go off?
22:34
Are, aren't they 5:00, 6:00 AM our time on a Saturday morning? Uh, sometimes they're pretty early, but you know, you get those bigger games, they're about noon b- on the West Coast Yeah... yeah.
22:40
I mean, I was cashing out. I don't get to bed until 2:00 AM. That's right. I don't know if I'm making it up for that. Gonna take a look at Pebble Beach up next. It's a Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serrao.
22:49
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander. Gone beast in.
23:06
Taking you through a Friday morning here on a Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serrao, and we've got a lot of college hoops to get to, so let's not waste time. Let's take it to the progressive guest line.
23:16
Welcome in ESPN's Dallin Cuff, who's gonna be on the call tonight in St. Louis, the Dayton Flyers taking on the Billikens. Little A10 action. I love it.
23:27
Dallin, how are you, and how excited are you for this conference matchup tonight? I'm doing well, guys. Uh, it's, it's a big game.
23:34
It's a, it's a strange game, 'cause this Dayton team, um, you rewind, you know, six weeks ago, they were probably a six or seven seed in the tournament. They've beaten Yukon, they've beaten Marquette. Flying high.
23:43
Um, these guys are struggling and they're four and four in league play. They're pretty enigmatic. They're coming off a 22-point loss to your boy, Joe Z- Jo- Joe the, uh, the Bonnies- Yes, sir...
23:50
got them up at the Riley Center pretty, pretty significantly. And St. Louis is really good at home, and they've struggled on the road. And St.
23:56
Louis is a team we thought before the season, this could be like, they could, these could be both tournament teams.
24:00
Like, right now they're, they're playing for really their, their seeding in the A10 and a chance to win a championship and looking at basically one-bid leagues. There's a lot on the line tonight for both these squads.
24:09
Now, do you think there's any potential with the St. Louis team, the way that they're playing, that the A10 could go back?
24:14
I mean, look, this, this is a conference used to get three, four, on rare occasion, five teams in the field of, back then it was 64.
24:22
Any chance this Billikens team with the resume they're putting together could work their way into an at large in your estimation, or is the A10 strictly a one-bid, uh, one-bid league? It's sad. It's a one-bid league.
24:32
But like I said, like, three weeks ago, four weeks ago, I, you could have seen three or four. Yeah. Now, St.
24:35
Louis didn't necessarily have the path, but, uh, your Bonnies did have, have, have a record that was really good in non-league. Now, they didn't have many quality wins. Dayton had the quality wins.
24:43
It seemed like a lock to have an at large resume. VCU looks the part. That, that is the team that I think is interesting in this league, 'cause they, they look like a tournament team despite losing to St.
24:51
Louis midweek in a tough game and a tough environment on the road. They look the part, but I don't, they don't have the wins.
24:57
It's like, when you look at the A10 right now, there's only four quadrant wins the entire league, and Dayton's got two of them Uh, the league has only played 24 games that were quad one games in non-league.
25:05
That's not- I mean, relative to other leagues, that is such a minuscule number that, that makes it tough for them to put together their resumes.
25:10
That's why the non-league, they have to win some of these games, and Dayton did that. But now they are struggling.
25:16
You know, now when you lose to George Washington by 20, you lose, losing to Bonies on the road, there's no shame in that.
25:20
But losing to a George Mason team that didn't have good metrics that looks like the part right now, um, but aren't gonna be an at-large team, it, it's unfortunate. League is good. The league is much better in the middle.
25:30
It's better at the back end, which makes it tougher for the teams at the top to win the games that they have to win to secure that resume.
25:35
So it, they're kind of cannibalizing themselves, and it's unfortunate for the league, but it's good basketball every game.
25:40
It's just they're not gonna have more than one team in the tournament, I don't think, unless something crazy happens down the stretch here. Yeah, it's a good point you made about being a little stronger in the back end.
25:47
You used to have the gimme games like, you know, a Fordham or a LaSalle, and now Fordham's nothing- Yeah... to scoff at. LaSalle got my Bonnies at the Reilly Center, something that I certainly- Mm-hmm...
25:56
didn't expect to happen. So it definitely is a deeper league, but y- you're missing the, uh, the punch at the top. You're into some Ivy League action tonight.
26:04
What do you like in this Yale-Princeton game, two of the better teams in that conference?
26:09
Yeah, I think the, well, Cornell may be one of the, one of the top, one of the top two teams, too, but coming into the year, this was kind of one of these showpiece games.
26:14
And to see, this is the first, uh, back-to-back week in the Ivy League back when I played in it. We did this every, every weekend. We did six straight weekends of back-to-back, and it was normal.
26:22
Now it's a little, it's abnormal for some of these guys. So, interested to see how, how Princeton and Yale both handle this first game, uh, 'cause these two teams were the class of the league. I will say this.
26:30
Princeton has really struggled to start games. Like, they have started slow in a lot of league games and non-league games. Now they've come on a tear in the back end, a- and they've got two great play- great players.
26:40
Xavier Lee is an NBA player, a 6'4 junior guard, 6'3 junior guard, great change of pace, great vision. Anybody that watched him just carve up Rutgers can see what this guy can do a- at a very high level.
26:49
And Kaden Pierce, one of the best all-around players in the country.
26:52
The problem is, outside that, they don't have a lot of strength, they don't have a lot of physicality, which is kind of typical for some of their teams, a- and they, and they lack other scoring outside those two dudes.
27:01
Yale is, is built in a different way. They've got a bunch of different guys. Boas, John Paul Petis can make shots. Townsend on the inside. They're, they are physical.
27:07
They are kind of the, they're the bullies, or the bulldogs are in this league, and I think they can walk into Princeton.
27:12
I like them in the money line in the first half, uh, to win the, to, to take the, the first 20 minutes. As I said, Princeton struggles. And really, the spread has moved from two and a half to three.
27:20
I still lean Bulldogs here. I think, I think they are just the flat-out the better team. Princeton's home court advantage is not what it once was.
27:27
Uh, just say the fans don't turn out as much, and it's not as, it's not as an aggressive environment.
27:30
Uh, they can win the game, but I th- I think Yale's the better team, and I think Yale's gonna find a way to slow down those two pieces.
27:35
They have the best coach in the league in James Jones, and the, the other guy that is vying for that position in Mitch Henderson.
27:40
So it's, it's the class of the league, but I'm gonna lean to the Bulldogs on the road here d- to walk into Princeton and feel pretty comfortable where they're at.
27:45
They've had success there in the past, and knock off the Tigers. Dalen Cuff, uh, so much more humble than, than, than I would be, Joe.
27:51
Uh, I don't know if you caught it there, that little of, "When I played in the Ivy League," you know? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. [laughs] I, I'd be working that in- That wouldn't have been lost on anyone...
27:59
I, I'd be working that in on every guest spot that I did, but you know, I, I, you know, Da- Dalen's a classy guy. He does, he keeps it humble When I majored in rocket science and dropped 30 a game, yeah, exactly.
28:08
Yeah, I, I, if, if either of those things were true, I probably wouldn't be talking to you. [laughs] But I, I can't add, and I didn't drop 30 a game. Oh, man. All right, Dal, let's go to the other one you got today.
28:16
Y- your old squad in acti- action, Harvard at Columbia. What are you looking at in this game? Oh, boy. The Lions, folks. The Lions, um, we don't like defense. We don't like the guard very much. Yeah, who needs it?
28:28
And, and on our end, who needs it is kind of the approach. And when you've lost five straight, that becomes a concern. Um, they are laying the points here.
28:34
I, I'm gonna stay away from the spread, because I, they are an enigmatic team.
28:37
A- and, and Harvard is a team that they had Princeton dead to rights on their floor and just capitulated down the stretch and lost to the Tigers.
28:43
They've been, they've shown some signs of life, but they still just struggle to score.
28:47
This is one of the best shooting leagues in the country, the second-best league according to KenPom in terms of effective field goal percentage. That's always kind of been the case in the Ivy League.
28:54
Difference is Columbia wants to play fast, Harvard wants to play slow.
28:57
Why I like the over in this game is I don't think Tommy Amaker's scared about, scared of these guys at all defensively, and they won't necessarily play fast, but I think they can score relatively easily and relatively quickly rela- compared to the other teams in this league in terms of how Harvard has to go against their defenses.
29:11
So I'm gonna take the over. It has moved. It opened at 146 and a half, grabbed it there last night. I think it's, it's, it's, it's crept up a little bit here in the last couple hours.
29:19
Uh, overall, uh, you know, Columbia's situation is they're gonna play fast, they're gonna shoot fast, and they're not gonna defend very well. They do that even more so at home.
29:26
A lot of their games at home have hit the 160 or 170 mark, and that's where they're at today. And this is a game that really Columbia has to win to, to even have a hope.
29:33
Remember, guys, the Ivy League tournament now is the top four teams, uh, in the league will, will compete at Brown for, for the spot to go to the Ivy, to go to the NCAA tournament.
29:41
Columbia's never been in that top four since they've done this since 2017, and there were hopes that they would get there, uh, before, once we got to league play.
29:47
But this league is tough, and they have not defended at the requisite level, and that's why I think that Harvard will be able to score enough. And Columbia will be able to get some baskets, too.
29:53
Harvard's not very good defensively, either. Um, so I think you, the over is the play here. Dalen, I wanna ask you about the only ranked team in action here tonight, Big Ten rivalry, Indiana-Purdue.
30:03
It's been a disastrous year for Mike Woodson and the Indiana Hoosiers. Purdue's laying 12 in this spot. Now, they've got back-to-back 20-point wins in the rivalry. Prior to that, Indiana had covered three out of four.
30:15
Even as bad as the Hoosiers are, you get a feeling they're gonna get up for this game, being that in-state old conference rivalry. Is 12 points too many, or would you lay it with the Boilermakers?
30:25
Joe, you say they're gonna get up. I, I don't know. [laughs] I just don't know.
30:28
I, 'cause, uh, 'cause like as Indiana, I, like, I talk about a team that just, from the, from the most base level of, of competition is to, is to suit up and to give everything you have.
30:38
And Indiana has struggled to do that consistently throughout the course of the year. And they've struggled to do that in big games against big-time opponents.
30:44
You can go back to the Louisville game in, in Atlantis, and they didn't show up.
30:47
You're playing another blue blood program in the first round of the tournament that you're supposed to be able to maybe advance and make some noise, and you just, you know, kind of quit in the second 20.
30:56
And we've seen them do this a number of times. So it's by no means a fair or foregone conclusion that these guys are gonna show up. What I can conclude is that Purdue is going to be ready to play.
31:06
Their building is gonna be on fire. And if they have them down, there is no foot on the foot off the, foot off the gas.
31:13
So I, I would actually think that the, the first half line, I might play it first half and the total. Uh, and, and it's first half and the spread total, I should say, um, both ways.
31:21
'Cause I, I think Purdue's gonna be able to control this game. I do wonder if Indiana's got it in them to kind of really fight back. Indiana does not shoot it very well. They don't have...
31:28
They are very much more interior based, which I think is a bit of a problem with them against this Purdue team.
31:33
Um, overall I think Purdue's the cl- the better, the better team that will play, that, that I have more confidence in in terms of how they're gonna play. The other bet I would look at is Indiana team total under.
31:41
They have really struggled to score at different times against solid defensive opposition.
31:45
I think Purdue, given everybody talking about them last year and how great Edey was and what the expectations were, they've kind of flown under the radar i- in, in recent weeks.
31:53
They've been very solid to say the least, and, uh, Trey Kaufman-Rensb- really good. Obviously the guard play, those guys are now juniors. They continue to improve.
32:00
So I, I think this is, uh, I'm all in on the Boilers here. I, I don't...
32:04
I, I, I can't back the Hoosiers just because they, they've just been, they just lack the ability to show that, that they deserve my money, for lack of a better term. [laughs] Absolutely.
32:11
And hey, you're bringing up that Indiana Louisville game. That was like rubbing salt on the wound. I was on Indiana in that game, and that's the last time I've put money on these Hoosiers.
32:19
[laughs] Dallin, before I let you go, I gotta ask you about the big game Saturday morning. Florida, Tennessee, top 10 matchup.
32:25
Speaking of teams not showing up, not doing the bare minimum, that's what Tennessee failed to do last time they played Florida in Gainesville. Now it's in Knoxville.
32:34
We don't have a number out on this game yet, but do you think there's a chance for redemption, Tennessee could win this one outright? Uh, it's tough, 'cause it, man, guys, they struggle to score, man.
32:43
They just, they really struggle to score. They're shooting 46% from the two point line i- in league play, but they're shooting like 40 plus percent of their shots from three, and they're not really a good shooting team.
32:52
So I, I, I really like the Gators. I, I think they're just the, I think they're a better team. I've talked, I've talked to you g- you guys, I've talked to BetLive, all these different betting shows I do before the year.
33:00
The one long shot to win the championship, which I don't love that bet, was Florida. At that time you get between 20 and 25 to 1. Wow. They have it all. They got great guards. They got great bigs.
33:08
They can stretch those bigs. Some of them have got great offensive rebounding. They are m- much better defensively. They're tough. They're well-coached.
33:14
I think they, they outside o- of Auburn are the best team in the SEC.
33:18
I would take Florida over Alabama even, even so when you think about them long-term in terms of their consistency and what I think they can do in the tournament. So I think they can take the show on the road.
33:26
Uh, I think they can score enough, rebound enough, and they're tough enough to win in Tennessee. And we've seen other teams be successful on Tennessee's floor. We just saw it this week.
33:33
So, uh, and Tennessee's gotta figure out the offensive piece of this. They don't have a lot of guys in great shots and a lot of guys that can make shots, and I think this could be a bit of a, a challenge for them.
33:41
So I'm leaning Gators, and we'll see what that line is. Dallin, really appreciate the time, man. Thanks so much and good luck on the call tonight. Enjoy that Dayton St. Louis game. Thanks guys. Be well.
33:51
ESPN's Dallin Cuff, kind enough to give us a few minutes while he's doing his, uh, his game prep. A10 conference action. Nothing like it, Kelly.
33:58
Friday night in the A10, fireball shooters getting thrown onto the court by the rowdy student sections. [laughs] That's a true story by the way. Asked- Really?
34:05
Oh, Dan Hurley had one chucked at him at the Riley Center when I was a student there. I'm sure. Not by me. I'm sure he took it well. I, I [laughs] imagine. Tell Dan Hurley his hair looks nice, he won't take it well.
34:14
Yeah. Always a mature guy on the, uh, basketball court. Absolutely, yeah. His brother, you know what? I gotta say, his brother, Arizona State's not a great hoops team. They've been decent against the number lately.
34:24
His brother's been- Okay... a decent bet lately. If you're looking to Big 12 late night action, don't sleep- Keep your eye on that one. Okay... don't sleep on the Sun Devils. Let's get back to the Super Bowl.
34:33
Some Super Bowl LV9 props up next. He's Kelly Bedell and I'm Joe Serallo. Don't go anywhere. You're locked into a Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
