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Jul 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 10, 2024
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45:30
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, in the hizzy. How you doing, man? I'm doing great. How about you? Uh, it's g- I'm doing great.
0:27
Um, oh, ash, just, uh, was it with- with- temperature on the car yesterday was 117. Oh, mine broke. Tommy. Yours broke? That, that, that- That's what Randy told me downstairs, that yours broke. Yeah.
0:38
I love that Randy told you that. I was run- Hey, gauge on your car... what was it? Monday was the errand day for me and you where we were running all around, and like I had my- [laughs]...
0:44
I was like in a, just parked outside for like a couple hours.
0:47
I got back in the car and I'm driving around and I'm like, "Yeah, my, uh, my thermometer's saying 70 degrees," and it's not changing, and I don't think that's the case right now. Okay. It's definitely like 115.
0:58
Maybe 170. Right. Exactly, yeah. Not 70. Uh, so that is, it's the dog days of summer here in Las Vegas. Um, but we got a show for you filled with guests, filled with actual betting information.
1:09
Uh, JVT coming up momentarily to talk, uh, all things basketball and baseball with us, all his plays. Will Hill with his. Chris Felica with his. Oh, Will Hill and Chris Felica, two Yankees fans back to back.
1:20
I'm sure I'm not gonna hear about any comments I made yesterday. [laughs] Uh, that's coming up. Jason Weingarten as well with all his bets. I will go, I, I made a Cy Young bet.
1:28
I made my first Cy Young bet of the year, and, uh, we will discuss that.
1:34
And, uh, we will do it in a way that is, that, that we've done on this show here on A Numbers Game annually, doing it very systematically based on a tried and true formula.
1:47
And so sort of in the theme of what we were talking about with Cleave earlier this week in the NFL, like, all right, here's your, here are my tried and true NCAA championship formula.
1:55
Here's my tried and true Cy Young thing that we do.
1:58
Um, we never really talk about in the NFL, which we will again momentarily, about some of Cleave's stuff, uh, Cleave Ta, uh, his football preview guide that, uh, some of his parameters on certain awards.
2:09
But that's what we're gonna do with the Cy Young coming up later on the show, and I have made a bet and perhaps it will trigger one for you. Also on the show, this can't be right, this can't be right, Kelly.
2:20
It says here on the rundown, Deanna Colon, professional vocalist, songwriter, chef, and actress, also the original Jardiance lady. Is that true? That's right. What have we done? That's right.
2:31
[laughs] Hour and 10 minutes. Would you like to hear from her or like, you know, want to do a Sun Belt preview? The former. [laughs] Let's go. Let's find out from Deanna.
2:40
She is a, uh, she got ousted from Jardiance, and I just wanna find out what went down and, uh, how she's doing and what that whole ordeal was like 'cause I think it's a good case study for just anyone who, uh, receives hate
2:55
and handles it. Yeah, I, I, I've- It's a great, great i- great thing to look at. I mean, I'm interested for, for, you know, for her specifically. Quite a background with, with...
3:03
I mean, she's done many reality TV shows, a sing- a professional singer, actress. Well, that's my first thing I'm gonna say to her. I don't know why I'm whispering 'cause I don't think she's listening.
3:13
[laughs] But the first thing I'm gonna say to her is, like, "Does it offend you that I go right to the Jardiance commercial?" Well- 'Cause she's done all these others- Right... all these other things.
3:22
So it's partially that- Yeah... or, or does she look at it as it was a boost to her career? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, when you have people like us talking about it as much as we've talked about it.
3:31
[laughs] So we look forward, look forward to that as well. By the way, Wimbledon update. Uh, I split bets this morning. I have only one left.
3:38
Uh, I thought that Elina Svitolina would give Elena Rybakina more of a challenge this morning, but Rybakina clinically, uh, defeating Svitolina, so the over did not get there.
3:49
But I did, and I'm still mad at myself for this too, I had Bar- uh, Barbora Krejcikova plus the games against Jelena Ostapenko. Not only did she cover the game line, she beat Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets.
4:00
So I hate myself for, this is when you're running bad and your numbers tell you you should take the money line. You're like, "Uh, I don't know about my numbers right now and this grass service." Yeah.
4:09
So you back up and you take the games, and so I hate myself even for winning that the way that we want it. Uh, the only one I have left, uh, or, uh, left is on the men's side. We had a withdrawal this morning.
4:20
Alex de Minaur, the Australian, who hurt himself on match point in the previous, uh, round against R2 Feels. Actually, it was a couple points before that.
4:30
He said it was the last three points, uh, where he felt as though he had a, a pain, and what ended up happening, and I think I have the exact quote somewhere.
4:39
Yeah, I like heard half of it when I was walking out this morning. Uh- It was, it, it's an abductor strain. Abductor detached from the hip, something, I'll get you the exact quote.
4:49
It was so, yeah, I didn't catch exactly what it was- Here it is... but he was talking about it. He got- I have it for you.
4:53
Uh, Alex de Minaur have to pull out due to a hip injury, a tear of the cartilage that connects to the abductors.
4:59
"I felt a crack during the last three points, had a scan and it confirmed it was the injury with high risk of making it worse." Yeah. Olympics in danger, he says as well. Yeah.
5:09
Which is the real, I mean, on top of that, for the Australian to, uh, to, for that to be in jeopardy is a huge thing.
5:16
So anyway, the long and short of it is the women's semis are s- uh, excuse me, the, yeah, the women's semis are now set. It is Elena Rybakina against Barbora Krejcikova.
5:26
Um, those are the, those are the two remaining players with the best grass court numbers. Rybakina one, Krejcikova two, and then in the other one, um, you've got Donna Vekic against Jasmine Paolini. [laughs] Okay.
5:39
Um, Donna, Donna Vekic in her first Grand Slam semi. Um, and then on the men's side we have Daniil Medvedev who upset Jannik Sinner yesterday. Sinner was ill. Medvedev gets through. He will take on Carlitos.
5:52
Carlitos beat Tommy Paul yesterday.
5:54
So Medvedev versus Alcaraz in one, and the other one is Novak Djokovic, who has had not only de Minaur get hurt on his side of the bracket- But also Hubert Hurkacz get hurt on his side of the bracket.
6:05
Also have Sascha Zverev get hurt in that f- match against Fritz, Taylor Fritz the other day, get hurt on his side of the bracket. Novak gets the free bonus square. He's in the semis against the winner of this match.
6:17
Uh, Taylor Fritz taking on Lorenzo Musetti here momentarily. I have the under, under 39. I think Fritz rolls it. Let's go, Fritz. We'll see. Rooting for Fritz now. Um, okay.
6:28
One more thing from Cleve's, uh, Cleve's preview guide. Again, VSiN pre- uh, NFL betting guide is out there for VSiN subscribers. Check it out.
6:36
Matt Humans, um, Wes Reynolds, Adam Burke, Zach Cohen, everybody did such a wonderful job on this. Um, our buddy Cleve has his own little free one that he puts out at cleveTA, just on his Twitter site.
6:50
And we, we talked about alternate season win totals earlier, and the amazing percentages that hit on those.
6:55
Earlier in the week we talked about Coach of the Year, and the parameters he gives for Coach of the Year, um, and who that sort of applies to this year. He landed on Kevin O'Connell.
7:07
Kelly and I were talking about it, and Jim Harbaugh just makes too much sense to me, quite frankly. Well, let's talk about another thing that he talked about, which is season wins in general.
7:18
Forget the alternate for a second. Season wins in general, um, there's always exceptions, and we talked about there, there's... Let's just break it down in three groups.
7:29
There's teams that have season win totals of eight or f- eight or fewer, in between eight and a half and nine and a half, which by the way ends up being like 12 teams right in the pocket there in the middle. Mm-hmm.
7:41
And then teams that are 10 plus. So we'll, we're gonna remove the eight and a half to nine and a halfs for the purposes of this discussion, which is 12 teams right in the middle.
7:49
Um, but there is always, um, and we can flash this up from, from Cleve, there is always at least a team or two that gets there from- Yeah. So the- Go ahead, yeah you go.
8:00
Yeah, the numbers are, so since 2000 at least one team with a win total of eight or less has made the playoffs. In 20 of the last 24 seasons at least two teams have made it. Okay?
8:11
And then in the next one, so we're gonna discuss what, you know, what team do we think, uh, with a lower one could make the playoffs, and then a team with, a team with a win total of 10 plus has missed the playoffs every year since 2000.
8:23
So which one of the ones [laughs] with 10 or more will miss the playoffs this year? All right, let's start with the first group. Yeah.
8:28
Where you said every year since 2000 at least one team with a win total of eight or less has made it. 20 of the last 24 at least two teams have made it.
8:36
Here are the teams, uh, [laughs] that, that qualify for this this year, that have season win totals of under eight, and let's try to identify the team or two teams that will get to the playoffs. Cardinals seven and...
8:49
I, I'll just read them off in, in no particular order. Actually alphabetical order by their city or state, and then you can, you can react. Okay. Cardinals seven and a half. You think they get there? I do not.
9:03
I don't, but I think there's... I, I think, I think there, uh, there's a chance. Panthers five and a half. No. Broncos five and a half. No. Raiders six and a half. No.
9:13
Now here's the one that Cleve identified the other day. Vikings seven and a half. Eh, p- probably not. [laughs] I'm not so sure either. Patriots four and a half. No. Saints seven and a half. No.
9:26
I'm with you on all the, all your nos. Giants six and a half. No. Here's the one where I think gets there. Seahawks seven and a half. That's the one I wrote down. Seattle Seahawks.
9:35
I just think the Pete Carroll subtraction is such an addition, and I don't think w- and I think Mike McDonald is going to maximize that defense.
9:45
I don't think they're gonna have as conservative of play calling on offense. I just think... And they were great on first and second downs last year. Mm-hmm.
9:52
They were great on first and second downs, as Cleve points out in his preview as well. Seahawks seven and a half. Bucs seven and a half. No. I agree. Titans six and a half. No. I agree. Commanders six and a half.
10:04
May- maybe, but- That's the only other one I would give- Maybe, but no... doubt. Ah. The o- the only one I could, 'cause this was the one where there in 20 last 24 years at least two teams have made it.
10:15
I, I couldn't get to two. I can get to Seahawks. I couldn't get to two. I'm with you. I can get to Seahawks. Vikings and Commanders are the maybes. Vikings, Commanders, Cardinals for me.
10:24
I would put them in that next group. Oh, that's very charitable of you. Yeah. [laughs] All right, the other category. A team with a win total of 10 plus has missed the playoffs every season since 10, uh, since 2000.
10:33
Which is that team? Ravens 10 and a half. I think I cheated a little bit here. No, no. Bills 10 and a half. No. Bengals 10 and a half. No. No. Cowboys 10 and a half. I'm going no. Cle- Cleve said yes.
10:47
I'm going no on the Cowboys. I think they still make it. Lions 10 and a half. No. Chiefs 11 and a half. No. Eagles 10 and a half. No. [laughs] This one's worse. Niners 11 and a half. No.
10:56
[laughs] Because- It's, it's either the Cowboys or the Eagles. Yeah, if we're, if we're going there. I mean, I think this is where the numbers like, okay, there's Dolphins and Jets, there's 10s out there on, I think.
11:07
My, my, my- I did not include them 'cause I saw nine and a halves. Yeah. My half-assed answer on this was the Dolphins. Nah, it doesn't count for this exercise. It doesn't count. It doesn't count. No.
11:14
I don't have an answer. I think it's either the Cowboys or the Eagles. I think the team that doesn't win that division, I know it's a bit of a cop-out 'cause I didn't name one of them.
11:23
[laughs] But I think that's, I think that's it, so. I, if we're, if we're saying that, which, I mean, look, it's a small group we're picking from from this, right? I just think it's- It's Cowboys before Eagles for me...
11:33
we talked about guardrails with coaches of the year. I just think this is sort of the opposite of that, which is open your mind to the possibility- Yes, exactly...
11:40
that teams you feel are good or bad might not be as good or bad as you think headed into the season. JVT on the other side, Jonathan Von Tobel. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:57
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12:07
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13:04
Ladies and gentlemen, he's not only our senior NBA analyst, he's also the co-host of VSiN Prime Time, which he does with Tim Murray weeknights here at the network, and comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line with shorn hair, a haircut that is different than we're used to.
13:19
Jonathan Von Tobel, everybody. How you doing, JVT? Yeah, I'm good. Look, um, I'm a big guy. I've, I've, I've shed some LBs and I'm working on that, right? But i- it's hot, man. It's hot.
13:28
And so, uh, the other day, before I left on a vacation, uh, where I was gonna go explore nature out there in, uh, central California, I was like, "I gotta get rid of this." So, I shaved the head.
13:37
It's a style I used to rock, but I feel like with a big head like mine, I can pull it off. So, uh, yeah, uh, here I am. Nicely done. And then maybe, maybe it sheds just enough weight in your little contest with Dustin.
13:47
Maybe that helps as well. I don't know if you were thinking of this. Yes, cor- every advantage. Actually, I don't have a single hair on my body outside of my eyebrows- [laughs]... and the ones on top of my head, so.
13:54
Okay, we didn't need that. We didn't need that. Wait, wait, when is that contest, uh... What, what is it completed again? Uh, the k- NFL Kickoff Day. So what is that? Thursday, September, whatever that is. Okay.
14:04
Any sense of who's in the lead here? We're talking about body pers- b- uh, f- uh, weight percentage we're talking here. Yeah. Um, no, because so Dustin's on vacation for, like, three straight weeks. Yeah.
14:14
So I'm hoping that I can really kind of put a good dent into this over the next couple of days once I'm done with you, and throwing the s- the sweatsuit on and g- going out for a nice walk in the heat, so. Oh, man. Oh.
14:24
Uh, I think, yeah, I think I could take, uh, advantage of it in the next couple of weeks, 'cause, uh, I'll just say this.
14:29
I hung out about two, three weeks ago, Kelly was there, at a cabana out there at, uh, Stadium Swim, and I did not need to tempt Dustin that much with a giant plate of nachos. [laughs] It was somewhat easy, so. Yeah.
14:40
Hopefully on vacation, the same thing's happening. Dustin was like, "Nah, don't twist my arm." I feel like I've been around those two, like- Yeah...
14:45
four times since this contest started, and it is nonstop, like, "Hey, JVT, you should try this. This looks really good," or vi- vice versa. [laughs] Well, good luck. And then just remind everybody what the prize is here.
14:55
Is there a prize? Uh, I think there's 500 bucks on the line, something like that. Five- Yeah, it was like between two of us. Now-... hundred dollars...
15:00
Dustin wants to do something where he wants to, like, we have to put it on an NFL future. I'm gonna push back on that because I was like, "I wanna do whatever I want with the $500." Yeah. Yeah.
15:07
Why do I have to then subsequently do whatever I want with it? So we'll see what happens. You guys have been through enough.
15:11
All right, it's, uh, it is Summer League time, and I know you love this, and I know you actually bet this.
15:18
I'm not sure if you, like, go to the arena and actually, like, get in some live stuff going, but you definitely have some macro thoughts on this and a, and a futures bet on it. Yeah, and I'll say this.
15:27
Look, e- I think anybody who knows this, and I, I told the story actually involving Kelly the other day on the air.
15:33
You know, Gil, last year Kelly and I were sitting at the Thomas & Mack Center, and we were watching Pistons and Raptors warm up.
15:38
And he and I both thought, "Hey, you know, I don't see James Wiseman or Jaden Ivey or Jalen Duren, all these guys that were supposed to make this Pistons team great." I...
15:45
and so I go down and I'm looking, I'm like, "Oh, these dudes aren't even on the floor." And so we went and bet the Raptors, and it was a sweep, but they ended up covering.
15:51
But that's kind of the, the whole picture, right? With Summer League is information's key.
15:55
If you can know when some of these bad players aren't gonna play or some of the good players aren't gonna play, then you're gonna be in a pretty good position.
15:59
So day to day, that's what you're kind of hoping for is roster moves, getting ahead of it, following beat writers, and understanding who's gonna play and who's not.
16:05
But from the large sense, I think you're looking at the futures market for some certain characteristics and teams. You want really solid second-year players.
16:13
You know, the Utah Jazz, for example, have a roster that is littered with guys who have played really good minutes at the NBA level in the regular season. You're looking at guys on this roster, Gil, that have played.
16:22
Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Walker Kessler.
16:25
We don't know how long they're going to play in the Summer League, but if you're gonna give me those guys for two, three of the four games that they're gonna play in Las Vegas, that's a team that's gonna make some noise.
16:34
It's why they're up there. So I think they're worth it, and the Memphis Grizzlies for me is one of those teams as well, and we actually saw these two teams play the other night.
16:40
But again, a roster that is littered with dudes who played solid NBA minutes for them this past season led the way. GG Jackson is on this roster, uh, who did a really good job for them. Jake LaRavia is on this roster.
16:52
I think that when you look at teams that can have success in this setting, those are the guys that you wanna look for, and I'll give a quick example. Two years ago, Quentin Grimes was a second-year guy.
17:01
He was heading into his second year, had played about 40 games, had averaged 17 minutes a game, dominated in the Summer League, carried the Knicks to a title game.
17:07
He played the Portland Trail Blazers, where Trendon Watford, who was in the exact same scenario, actually helped the Portland Trail Blazers get there. Cavaliers were the same situation last year.
17:15
So those are the characteristics I'm looking for, and those two teams, Grizzlies and Jazz, are gonna be on the list for me, uh, to bet the Summer League when we get a vast majority of odds, 'cause we're still waiting for a lot of places to hang futures on it.
17:24
I was just gonna ask you, do we have any at all yet on this? Yeah. W- so one spot, Caesars does have odds up. You can get, uh, the Grizzlies are at 18 to 1. The Jazz are the favorites at five to one, and that's one shop.
17:34
But I, I'm waiting because, look, evaluating these rosters is somewhat subjective, so I am going to see, uh, exactly what we're looking at and how other, uh, outlets really view these teams.
17:44
Now, one out there has kind of set the market, so we'll see if they just kind of follow in tow. But I think at five to one for the Jazz, it's worth it, it, at that price.
17:51
So I'll just sit back and wait, and if it, if nothing else happens better or nothing appears that's better, then I'm gonna go there. And same thing with the Grizzlies about that 18 to 1 mark.
17:58
It is, uh, Summer League, Tour de France, Wimbledon, that kind of year. It is also an Olympics year. Uh, soccer tournaments, I've mentioned- Yeah... of course, ear- uh, all the time. Um- You wrote about the Olympics.
18:09
What specifically did you write about it, or did you write about it in general? Yeah, so we- we're actually, we have an, an Olympic betting guide coming out here next week, so that'll be part of it.
18:17
It'll be- have a whole breakdown of the, uh, the Olympics coming out here in the next week or so, um, 'cause I don't know when the guide comes out, I just know that I have to submit my writing by Friday.
18:25
Um, [laughs] but, but I will say this, um, that when you look at this, the format, it's pretty understandable why the, uh, the US is such a heavy favorite, right?
18:33
One, the roster is great, but two, you know, they are pretty much...
18:36
I don't s- nothing is guaranteed, but you look at their group, Gil, where you're talking about Serbia, South Sudan, and Puerto Rico, two of those teams, South Sudan and Puerto Rico, 400 to 1 and 300 to 1 respectively.
18:45
The top two teams make it out of group, and then third place teams makes it out, or the top two third place teams. So eight and all move on to the next round.
18:52
Team USA is all but guaranteed to move on to the s- to the, uh, the knockouts.
18:55
After that, the way that the bracket falls, we don't know because there's a random draw, but this team is going to find itself in the quarterfinals. More than not, they're gonna find themselves in the semifinals.
19:04
So the path is there that it's understandable they're minus 500. But having said that, Canada and France for me are the two plays here to make at 11 to 1 and 14 to 1 respectively, and/or better if you can find it.
19:15
With Canada, the guard play's insane.
19:17
When you look at what the Canadians bring to the table with their basketball roster, we kind of know it at this point right now if you've been paying attention, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Lou Dort are among these guys.
19:26
Mikal Alexander-Walker is here as well. Their backcourt and wing play is going to be awesome.
19:30
I think they have some questions up front, which is gonna be a problem when you take on teams like France and the United States, but I think your guard play is so good that it's going to get you very far here in this setting.
19:40
And then France, Gil, I don't know if you've seen this. You know the French are playing Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert together. [laughs] Like, they're on the floor together at the same time.
19:49
They're running plays together. That's gonna be such a nightmare. And you also have the home court advantage, right? You're the host nation. That really helps you out.
19:58
When I get those two, the format where I'm pretty certain those two are going to be moving on, I think that those two are very much worth taking 11 and 14 to 1, and we'll get a glimpse of that later tonight when the Team Canada plays Team USA in a little bit of a friendly and a tune-up, uh, over, I think it's at T-Mobile.
20:13
But regardless, those are the two that are worth betting to me. Canada and France, I think those odds are very much worth it. And I'll ramble a bit, the last note on this, Kevin Durant is dealing with a calf strain.
20:22
He's not gonna play tonight, and we... it's the summer of the calf, right? Giannis Antetokounmpo, all these guys who've been dealing with this.
20:28
That's not the greatest for a Team USA that is trying to build this offensive continuity. They're gonna be awesome on defense, but the way you play offense is gonna be a question.
20:35
To have a mid-range scorer like that, can do it on his own, is gonna be really helpful, and if he's not gonna be available, it's a big blow. Uh, and Andrew Wiggins decided not to play for Canada?
20:44
Yes, him and, uh, Zach Edey, they were both on the training camp roster, but both were removed for different reasons, yeah. Oh, but you still like them though still. They're still stacked. Okay. Yeah.
20:52
Yeah, I think I'd like Zach Edey there a little bit more, right? Like I said, like the front, the center position is really great. UNLV's own Ken Burch is there, but he's a little long in the tooth.
21:00
So I, I would like a little bit more there, so I think that's why they're d- using both Canada and France I think are worth it from an odds perspective, 'cause their odds should be shorter. Yeah.
21:08
Again, how quickly will Wembanyama say to, uh, Gobert, "I can't believe you won that Defensive Player of the Year award"? The minus 250 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. Bro- Like, you know? [laughs]...
21:16
you put it up, you put it up and I was just immediately angry, 'cause I knew this was coming. We all knew it was coming.
21:21
Um, okay, last thing in our last minute here, you did make one Major League Baseball bet season long. Yeah, I, I'm just kind of turned off by the Mariners at this point, right?
21:29
They had a massive lead in the American League West. Uh, that's now down to about two games. The Astros, as you well know, right, had a, had a very good month of June to make their way back into this, uh, this race.
21:39
Their pitching has really turned around when you look at the guys that are in that rotation. A- and I think when you look at the Mariners, are they gonna make a trade? We're talking about 22nd away to runs created plus.
21:48
That lineup has not been very good, uh, in d- many different offensive metrics, and I don't know if you can dip into the pitching with Lou's injury.
21:54
So I think we get another scenario as last year, Gil, where they petered out the end. They missed out on the postseason by a game.
21:59
Uh, I thought it was worth it about plus 150 to take a wager on that team to miss the playoffs. I, I'm, I'm not very confident what the Mariners are doing at this point right now.
22:06
Yeah, feels like a pretty consensus opinion at this point, but good, good on you getting that plus money with the, uh, Astros and the Rangers now. Rangers have won five in a row. Yep. They finally have woken up.
22:15
That's their longest win streak of the year as well currently. Thank you, JVT, appreciate it as always, man. Thanks guys, appreciate it. Jonathan Vontobel, @meJVT on the old Twitter machine.
22:27
Doing Olympics for the Olympic guy. By the way, Olympic cere- uh, Olympic opening ceremony is, uh, what is that? July 26th, I believe. Is it July 29th?
22:36
So the, uh, guide should be out July 26th, by the way, opening ceremony, so guide should be out shortly before that. We're coming back. Will Hill with all his bets and then Cy Young bets after that. Next.
22:51
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
22:59
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Have you taken us in? We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin.
23:10
It is Bar Canada at the D. Still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten will join us, uh, with all his plays. Kelly will talk some golf with us. We don't sleep on golf.
23:18
I know it's not the Open Championships yet, but the Scottish Open is in full effect, and Kelly's got, uh, some plays. You going hard on this one or, uh...? Yeah, you should get a little bit later on this. Okay.
23:28
All right. Uh, and then Deanna Colon, uh, from the, uh, from the Guardians commercials will join us. Not the current Guardians commercials, the original. Guardians classic. She'll join us coming up on the show.
23:40
First, from, uh, Los Angeles, where he has been covering both Copa America and the Euros 2024 with Fox Sports, it is the Bear, Chris Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line,
23:51
via Alexander Graham Bell's invention, the telephone. How you doing, Chris? [laughs] I'll, I'll, I'll let you, I'll let you know, um, in about, let's see, uh, four to seven hours from now.
24:02
We, we, we got some, uh, nice Spain, Netherlands finals, name the finalists, uh, matches. We got a nice Netherlands to make the final ticket.
24:09
So, uh, I'm fully anticipating Uh, being let down and disappointed a few hours from now. Wait, repeat, what are, what are your tickets that you still have? What are they?
24:18
I have, I have a, um, I have a Netherlands-Spain name the finalists ticket. Oh, oh wow. And I have a, a, a Ne- a Netherlands to ma- to, to make the final.
24:27
So, and then of course we have the, uh, the Rodri to be pl- outstanding player of the tournament ticket that we gave out on your show prior to the tournament. Oh, man. So, uh, that's, that, that's in play too.
24:37
How much, how much- So I'm f- I'm fully pr- I'm fully prepared to be let down. [laughs] Of course. How much does it... What were the odds on the Netherlands-Spain final?
24:46
Uh, well, uh, it was, uh, let me, let me write down. I want to get... It was, uh, 14 to 1 on DraftKings, and then I got a, like, a, a, a boost from, from DK, so I was able to boost it from 14 to 21. Okay.
25:00
So, uh, it's a nice little, it's a nice little, uh, nice little ticket. Okay, let's circle back also to your other play, 'cause I wanna know what you're thinking about doing with it tonight.
25:07
But first, uh, last night, or yesterday entirely, first with, uh, COPA. Uh, w- we'll start with the second one last night. Argentina just rolls Canada. I guess there was no surprise there. Yep.
25:18
Um, but as far as the Spain-France game, what a cracker of a first half. France goes up one-nil with just really poor defense from Spain. They gave, uh, uh, Mbappé a lot of room on the assist.
25:30
And then Spain comes roaring back with not just one goal, but then a just absolutely beautiful second goal. That holds up the whole way. Were you happy to see that result? Yes.
25:43
I mean, I, I had, I had under two and a half in, in that match, and I had draw, but I was, I was happy to lose, uh, those bets to ensure Spain getting through, uh, for the Rodri bet and for the potential match up.
25:57
A- and, and I think it's better for the, the long, the, the, the final as well. You have the best team in the final s- uh, to, to play on, on Sunday afternoon.
26:05
So, uh, even though I happened to lose the individual bets, uh, on that match, uh, I was happy to get the better, the better long-term future price in the, the player of the tournament ticket through there. So I was...
26:17
A- and I was happy to see an exciting open match. I mean, we've been clamoring for it for so long- Yes... 'cause so many of the Fra- France matches had been dreadful to watch.
26:25
But, uh, the ear- the early goal really opened it up and, uh, Yamine Lamal is certainly a, uh, a special young player. France finally gets its open play goal, and with it they lose for the first time.
26:37
Um, that's the irony of that. Okay, let's go to Rodri before we get your thoughts on today's games in both Euro and COPA. Um, Rodri, you got a what number and what are you thinking about doing with him?
26:49
Uh, twen- twen- 28 to 1 i- is what we, we, we got him at. A- a- and I don't know, because I'm not sold that it's a lock that he wins if Spain wins.
27:01
Uh, I think there can be a really good case made, uh, for, for Dani Olmo, who right now is the Golden Boot leader with three goals and a couple of assists. Uh, he's certainly been fantastic.
27:10
He had the second goal for Spain yesterday. And then of course there's L- Lamal, who has been the, the talk of the tournament.
27:17
I, I just, I don't know if ultimately they'll decide to give a, a 16 just turned seven- he turned 17 on Saturday, if they'll give him both player of the tournament and outstanding player of the tournament overall.
27:30
So I, I almost wonder if, like, there's this subliminal thing in me that says, "Okay, maybe you give Rodri player of the tournament, uh, Dani Olmo wins the Golden Boot, and then Yamine Lamal wins outstanding young player of the tournament, and you make everybody happy."
27:45
But, but Dani Olmo's been thrust into the lineup because of the injury to Pedri, so, uh, I, I think there is some concern that Olmo could wind up being, uh, player of the tournament as well.
27:55
So I, I'm gonna wait and see what happens, uh, who they play today and, and, and who the whole, who they'll wind up playing and, and figure it out.
28:02
But I, I would say it's probably better than 50% Rodri wins 'cause he is the bigger name, but I, but I don't think it's a lock down that if they, if they win, that he does get it. Okay.
28:12
Uh, and last question on this, I'm just curious, and I'm putting you on the spot, so forgive me for this, but, like, how often does an international tournament like Euros 2024 end up where three goals is the most that anybody scored the whole way through?
28:26
It, it's, it's an extreme, and, uh, you normally it takes five, I would say- Yeah... because the, you've got the three, the three group stage games and then, but four, uh, four knockout round games.
28:36
So, uh, you, five is usually the number. Yeah, three is super, super low. Dani Olmo and, uh, Cody Gakpo are the only two that are currently still alive in the tournament.
28:47
So let's start with the afternoon game, at least our time afternoon game, between the Netherlands and England, and obviously you have a lot riding on this.
28:56
If you were just landing on this, Netherlands plus 220, draw plus 180, England, the short shot plus 165 on the three-way, how would you look at this?
29:05
I'm gonna be, I'm gonna play, just like I did yesterday, I'm gonna play draw, and I'm going to play under two and a half.
29:11
Uh, England has basically sucked the life out of every single match up that they, they, they've been in so far, and I don't think this is gonna be any different.
29:19
Uh, I think there's a lot of familiarity between, uh, the, the Dutch and England, just because so many of the Dutch players play in the Prem, including Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Aké, who are, who are on that Dutch back line, uh, playing at Man City and Liverpool.
29:34
They're familiar with, with, with the English lineup, so I think they know their tendencies. I think this is gonna be a very tightly contested match.
29:42
Uh, un- unlike France, who is actually, who has possessed the, the midfield and possessed the desire to go forward, uh, at, at times with great plays, England has expressed no desire to, to go forward and, and attack.
29:54
And, and that's kind of where the Dutch have been e- exposed.
29:57
If you look at the Türkiye match and, and the Austria match where they gave up some goals, it, it was, it was wings going forward being, being exciting, and, uh, England is not really built for that.
30:09
So, uh, I, I am on under two and a half, uh, I am on draw. A- a- and it's funny, we talked about the, the player of the tournament with, uh, Spain.
30:18
I, I think there still might be a bet To be made i- if you want to bet someone on England, because, uh, I don't think it'll be Harry Kane. It shouldn't be Jude Bellingham.
30:29
Uh, I think if you want- if, if you can find a good number still, I think he's around 16 to one.
30:34
There might be some outliers out there higher on Bukayo Saka, uh, to be player of the tournament, because no one really on England has stood out.
30:42
But Saka, after being kind of moved around positionally in the last match, he scored a goal, uh, he made his penalty.
30:48
Uh, he, he, he's been- he was great in that match, and moving forward for them to win today and for them to win S- uh, Sunday, he's gonna have to star.
30:56
Remember, remember the last Euro, he missed the penalty against Italy, subject of a lot of racial abuse, uh, took to me, and I, and I think if he were to, if he were to bounce back and they wind up winning and he had as a key reason why, there might be a school of thought to give him the award.
31:11
So I think he can still be had at around 16 to one or so if you're looking to maybe, uh, look to, look at someone on England to potentially win. Interesting.
31:19
I guess it begs the question though, Chris, because we talk about it all the time and we've talked about on this show, are voters for a Euro 2024 award any more nuanced than American voters are for our awards in our, all of our sports?
31:35
I, I don't know. Obviously, the, the, the tournament being only every four years, I'm, I'm not certainly sure.
31:40
There, there are even some, some, some, some thoughts out there that they actually kind of are influenced by a lot of other things.
31:48
I mean, I, I posed that question about Spain and, and who would win, uh, outstanding player on T- on Twitter yesterday, and a couple of people, including Nigel Sealy, reached out and said, uh, don't be surprised if Dani Olmo were to get player of the tournament because he's an Adidas player, Yamine Lamal is an Adidas player, and Rodri is a Nike player, and there- Sure...
32:08
there's so much like intertwined with like corporate sponsors in this tournament.
32:13
So that, that's something to, to think about too, which again, is something that you, you'd never really think about, um, in, in a, in a US, in a World Series or a NCAA tournament or, or, or whatever kind of outstanding player.
32:26
Sure. Okay. Copa. Copa America. Argentina now awaiting the winner of Colombia and Uruguay. That is tonight. Uh, Colombia is plus 205. The draw is plus 175. Uruguay is plus 180. Where are you going with this?
32:40
I don't love this match just because I, I see a variety of outcomes, and I know Paul, Paul did a really good job yesterday of just talking about how the, the physicality a- and, and the tightness of this match, and, and that's really what I think it's going to be.
32:54
A- and I guess if I had to pick a side to advance, it would be Uruguay, because I think they are more built to play that type of match like we saw the other night against Brazil, where they really were physical.
33:07
They really bullied Brazil o- o- on the ball and, and, and knocked them off the ball a good bit.
33:12
A- and if, if they don't allow Luis Diaz and Thomas Rodriguez b- room to run and distribute, that really takes Colombia out of its game.
33:20
And I, and I think that's the good thing about Uruguay is that they're built to where you want to go one-nil, nil-nil, go on penalties. Okay, we have experienced penalty takers that we're confident in.
33:30
You, okay, you want, we... You, they're gonna call the match a little bit tighter and it's gonna be a little looser and a little open. Okay, we, we can win.
33:36
We can win a, a, a, a two-one, two-nil, three-one, three-two type of match as well. So that's the beauty about Uruguay.
33:41
I think there are more avenues to win for Uruguay, so I, I do like, uh, Uruguay to advance would be, would be the bet that I would make here. All right. Real quick, give us the winner of both Euros and Copa.
33:56
Spain and Argentina. Spain and Argentina. Chalkity chalk chalk, but I get it. All right. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. At this point, you may as well...
34:04
But the two teams out of there, they, they, they're in the final, they're waiting. Chris, enjoy your remaining time in LA. Sorry I'm missing you in Vegas next week. Take care, guys.
34:13
Chris Falique, everybody, from Los Angeles, California. Just doing great stuff for Fox Sports. Imagine just go- he's like, "Yeah, I'll be in LA for five, six weeks covering the, both the soccer tournaments."
34:23
I think he's, he's out there a while, man. Then he comes here, probably entering some contests. Then he goes back there because our football, Fox is having their, uh, you know, preseason meetings and stuff. Busy man.
34:34
Just telling Paul- Fall season's coming... just telling all his business. Uh, we'll come back. Deanna Colon from Jardiant's next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:51
Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada. The day, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland. We get tweets and beat of the book. Brandon Kyles ending the Colon segment at the buzzer, Dr. Bob style. Great interview, Gil.
35:02
[laughs] Diana's energy, energy and positivity is infectious. Is that 'cause Bob never would, he would r- he would ramble and then he would go too far? Is that what I think that's with Bob? Yeah. Yeah.
35:11
That's absolutely what that's referring to. [laughs] We had one guest- I like you're pretending like you don't think that's not a thing almost every time. [laughs] No, I do remember. Yes, I do remember that.
35:20
Uh, we had one guest famously, and I won't give the name, early on, who didn't take the cue for the end. Oh, yeah. We ended the segment 'cause we had to cut that person off. We went to commercial.
35:34
The producer or the audio girl at the time, I think it was Anna, Anna Banana over there at Soundboard. Mm-hmm. Yep. He was still talking on the phone. [laughs] I think. I won't give the name.
35:44
We, we've had a couple legendary, uh- Yeah... ones we laugh at too. We won't name names, but the, where we've gotten one question off and then we've run out of time. [laughs] Oh. Like, that's happened a couple times.
35:53
[laughs] We, we keep records of that. That's right. Um, incognito better. The original State Farm commercials were great.
35:58
Jake from State Farm was an actual employee, and they often use real State Farm agents in those commercials. I don't remember that. I just remember the- I also like w- was- Non- Yeah...
36:07
there was not a person attached to Jake. Was he, was his first appearance the time where it's like the phone, like, "What are you wearing?" Remember that one? 'Cause I always laughed at that. He's like, "Uh, khakis."
36:17
No, that was when he didn't exist, right? Okay, so that was before even- That was, those were the best State Farm commercials. Yeah. Yeah. Well, she sounds hideous. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. That. That one.
36:26
Just Jesse Welch. Good luck following up that historic ANG segment. Yeah Banshees of Atlantic City. "The energy drop-off from Deanna to Jason is like following three cups of coffee with a couple of Valium."
36:36
[laughs] "Ironically, I'm going to need some Jardiance to hold off this blood sugar crash." [laughs] Man. And then Logic3227 with a screenshot of a Seth Lugo 50-1 ticket that he's got on side. Oh. Good for you, Logic.
36:50
Like it. Good for you, Logic, if I may call you that. The, the, the one other, the one... I just keep thinking about things of the, uh, interview with Deanna, too.
36:57
The other thing she said in there that I was thinking about is... 'Cause I almost wanted to interject with the, one of the reasons we've talked about it is we, we've seen it so much, right?
37:06
Why do we see it so much, though? Because we're st- we're part of that small sliver of the population that still watches as much live television as we do. That's correct. That's correct.
37:16
Because we're watching sports, so we, that's where we see all these commercials. 'Cause if you're watching, you know, Murder, She Wrote. Right. You're forwarding through the commercials.
37:25
But, and D- and Deanna said her, she and her husband just stream. So, like, she didn't even see it nearly- Yeah... as much as the rest of us.
37:32
So there is like [laughs] there is, like, sports betters, like, we're gonna watch a lot of sports, so therefore we're gonna get a lot of the commercials. The real headliner of that interview was, uh,
37:42
the last thing we spoke about, which we're not allowed to speak about. But that question I asked her, which she, uh- Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. Um, Scottish Open this week. Scottish Open. They're playing both sides.
37:56
That's my Sean Connery. [laughs] Yeah, this is, uh- Uh, you, you ratcheted back for this tournament. You don't go too crazy here. I love this tournament, actually.
38:03
Like, it's real, uh, the Renaissance Club up in Scotland is where it's played at. That's right, Renaissance, not, not Renaissance. But like, it sounds- Renaissance.
38:09
Yeah, it sounds a little bit more fancy this time of year, uh- [laughs]... when you say Renaissance. Uh, they, they, it's a great tournament. The course is kind of a, uh, it, it's not a full link style.
38:19
It's gonna actually look very much like a, a normal PGA Tour, uh, parkland course, except for you do get a few, few holes that are by the water, and you do get wind coming to play.
38:28
Around the greens will look a little bit more link style. It's really become a great tournament though, 'cause there's, there's a lot of, lot of financial backing behind it, like really, really rich dudes.
38:36
[laughs] When you, when you can buy a spot of land off of a duke- Uh... to build a golf course- Off of a what? A duke. Uh-huh. A duke. Yes. Yes.
38:46
Uh, acre, you know, hundreds of acres off a duke on water, uh, water, uh, line property there. It's, uh, y- you've got some money, so. Rory, Rory is a short shot, +750. Yeah. Xander +850.
38:57
Just first name basis with all these guys. Ludwig 14/1, Collin 16/1, Victor 22/1. Yeah, so you get a good field. A lot of these guys, right, are going over there. This is a warm-up before we go to the Open next week.
39:09
This is the week. We have the old Barbasol, which is called the ISCO Championship now, in Kentucky.
39:14
And what they do with these two tournaments, this is not an elevated event, not a signature event like we've got on the n- PGA Tour now. It is a split PGA Tour and DP World Tour event.
39:25
So half the field is gonna be from the PGA Tour, half the field from the European Tour. You get that both in Scotland this week and over in Kentucky. So if you're handicapping either one of these, keep those in mind.
39:36
Not as many stats that are widely available in the DP World Tour, that's why I'll, I'll usually dial back a bit here.
39:44
Some of that, though, you kind of toss out the window because the PGA Tour players are still just better overall than the DP World Tour players, right? So you're gonna end up betting those guys.
39:52
Um, after th- this event completely depends on what, what kind of wind we get as far as what kind of scores we've seen over the years.
40:00
We've seen a couple years where the winds really blow, and this, and this becomes a difficult course to score on.
40:06
If the winds are dialed back, where right now, as of right now, things can change in Scotland when it comes to weather, [laughs] pretty quickly.
40:13
As of right now, it looks like it's gonna be pretty calm through the weekend, Gil. So something to keep in mind. There is one guy you've heard me mention m- many times, uh, recently.
40:22
Keith Mitchell's one of the best ball strike, uh, ball strikers. He's probably a top 10 ball striker on the Tour- Love him... Tour right now. Yes.
40:27
I took a flyer out, uh, l- uh, long shot outright on him, but he will be a first-round leader bet for me as long as conditions look like they're calm.
40:36
If that, if the, if it looks like it's gonna be crazy, he's not, he is a guy that struggles to scramble, struggles around the green.
40:42
Maybe you don't wanna play him then, but it just kind of speaks to a little bit what you're dealing with at the, at this course. This is a bomber's paradise, though.
40:49
You get guys that are long off the tee, have done well here in the past. You're not penalized very much if you miss, uh, the fairway.
40:56
Um, and if the, around the green play can c- become important if that wind is blowing, if conditions do get ugly out there.
41:02
But otherwise, you're looking for b- bombers off the tee, strong on approach, and you're dealing with some big greens this week.
41:07
So lag putting, three putt, uh, three putt avoidance, that kind of stuff you're gonna wanna look at. Uh, Collin Morikawa was the first bet for me this week. Uh, 16/1, 18/1.
41:17
I'm probably just betting a, him at this point till he wins, Gil. Uh, he's right up there. Uh, he's been on fire these past, uh, couple months. His worst finish since the Masters was T-16 at Quail Hollow.
41:28
So he has been on absolute, on an absolute tear here, uh, since April. He's not, now he's not a guy who's long off the tee, but he's great with his long iron, so he can make up for that distance a little bit.
41:39
Um, so bet him outright, and then top 10. Uh, other outrights, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee, Keith, Keith Mitchell, and top 20 on Tom Kim, and then Morikawa and Aaron Ryan match ups for me.
41:50
Collin Morikawa, 27 years of age, seven tour titles at this point, one PGA and one, um, pardon me, one, uh, one PGA and one, uh, Open Championship among them.
42:05
Um, PGA was over there at Harden, Harding Park there in, uh, San Francisco. Remember that well, his first one, where he was just chilling in the parking lot afterwards with his girlfriend like, "Yeah, yeah."
42:13
Yeah, man, I did. He's rounding into form. I have a feeling he'll be on my, on my open card, uh, next week as well. He's playing really well right now.
42:21
Um, Tom Kim too, these last two years, he's finished, what, T six and third in the last two years playing here, and he's had, he had that, uh, playoff finish against Scottie Scheffler a few weeks ago where he lost to him.
42:32
Uh, so Tom Kim rounding into form a bit.
42:34
And Min Woo Lee's one of those really interesting examples on the tour right now because he's not great On approach, he's kind of middle of the road on approach, and when we talk about these guys that are the, the guys we love to bet, love to handicap, they're usually elite iron players.
42:49
He's not really there yet, Gil. Still a younger guy, but he's great off the tee, great, I mean, he's a great putter, great around, around the green. Kinda got the whole rest of the game.
42:58
It's just kind of an oddity when it comes to guys that we like to bet. It is odd. He starts and finishes well. Yeah. There's nothing in between. Right. Interesting. Exactly. So yeah, yeah. All right.
43:06
That's the, that's the card for this week. Honestly, the match-ups- Do you think Davis Thompson is gonna sort of have a, have a, a letdown spot, if you will? The, the- To use our football terminology...
43:14
so the tournament, to my tournament match-ups, right? Yeah. Really wasn't planning on betting these. These are kind of principle match-ups for me, okay?
43:20
Tommy Fleetwood, he's been playing great, and he's going back to Europe, so he's getting a slight bump for that.
43:25
And where I have Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood power rated at this point, though, it is a way bigger separation than mi- minus 115 on Collin Morikawa.
43:34
And then, yes, Aaron Rai and Davis Thompson have both been playing great. Davis Thompson's 25 years old and just won, and now he's gotta go all the way to Scotland to get ready for this tournament.
43:43
Aaron Rai's been playing some really good golf. I'll probably minus 115, uh, on him to, uh, to, to beat out Davis Thompson.
43:50
Uh, our July most wins bet, um, in a holding pattern from yesterday, 'cause the Royals and the Cardinals were rained out, so they're playing a double header today, which kinda stinks, 'cause double header, uh, double headers usually end up in splits.
44:03
So Royals and Cardinals, uh, have that double header, day-night double header today. Um, we'll see how that goes.
44:10
Right now, the leaders for the month of July are the Red Sox at six and one, and the Rangers at six and two. Royals are at two and four, by the way, so that's not a good start.
44:22
But remember, they got two against the Cardinals today, then three against the Red Sox, and that will be huge heading into the All-Star break, how they do here in these five games, because after the break, then it gets super-duper easy.
44:34
So if they can really perform here, then we will be in good position. If not, not so much. Uh- Yeah, what was the number on, like how many total games did they have this month?
44:42
Do you remember that off the top of your head? They started with 24, I wanna say. Okay. So now they have 18. No, 23. So no, 23, yeah. So they had 17 left. Yeah, 17.
44:51
Which is about how everybody else has left, since they had the, uh, the rain out yesterday.
44:56
Um, and this was the week where they were gonna, the other teams were gonna pick up ground in terms of total number of games anyway, 'cause they were idle for two days scheduled anyway, Monday and Thursday.
45:03
So we'll see how that goes. Uh, Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti in a second set tiebreaker. I really need Fritzy to win this one. Let's go, Fritz. To have that under in play. We've done all we can do.
45:15
Kojo and Golick are next on the radio side. On the picture side, if you're watching, best bets enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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