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Jul 19, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 19, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 19, 2024
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44:47
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game, with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Welcome in everybody.
0:10
Friday edition of a Numbers Game is live from downtown Las Vegas Bar, Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil one more day. Kelly Bittling is here at the Shield, and we have a lot to talk about today.
0:20
Major league baseball finally for most of us as bettors gets back underway here second half of the season, post all-star break resuming tonight with a full slate of games. We also will talk some college football today.
0:32
Paul Stone is with us in town to bet some game of the year markets, at least I think that is why Paul Stone is in town. We'll talk with him coming up later on today at 11:30 Eastern.
0:40
And Lou Finicaro on a very good UFC card coming up at 11 Eastern as well.
0:45
Of course, N- NFL, NBA talk, but we start the show, Kelly, with the open championship round number two, and, uh, f- we, we kind of go back first to yesterday.
0:53
We were on the air as the first round was winding down, and, uh, boy howdy, if you had a Shane Lowry first round leader ticket, pour one out. Uh, [laughs]
1:01
say, say an ode to the first round golf bettor if you had Lowry, who does not win the first round. He was a shot back of Daniel Brown, who comes out of nowhere, was as high as 350 to 1 to be first round leader.
1:11
Brown has since taken a step back. Uh, Kelly, another really good round though for Shane Lowry, who is at seven under in the clubhouse as the weather is starting to turn.
1:18
It's getting bad out there as we go into the afternoon. Yeah. L- yeah, looks like, uh...
1:22
I, I mean, y- you know, weather forecast, kind of what we s- saw, thought coming into the week, we s- we mentioned this a couple times yesterday, Ben. Um, it's kind of been what we thought it was gonna be.
1:32
It's just been, in my opinion, a little bit worse as a f- as far as affecting the course and the p- and the golfers than I expected it, uh, to be.
1:39
But where we're seeing wind at and everything, that, that's really what the forecast was calling for the whole week. So, um, no huge surprises there.
1:46
It does look like it's only gonna get, and probably only gonna get worse here this afternoon. But yes, if you had a Shane Lowry ticket, God bless you.
1:52
That is gonna be one, that is one of the worst golf, uh, bad beats I've ever seen. D- I mean, Daniel Brown, like this guy is... I- it- it's a, this is beyond like a tin cup nobody like B- uh, Ben Wilson.
2:03
Like this is [laughs]... I mean, maybe not that far.
2:05
We give him kind of some credit, but [laughs] But what, you heard the, you heard the broadcast yesterday say they, their first thought when they saw his name on the leaderboard was, uh, "Oh, the author of, uh, Angels and Demons?"
2:14
[laughs] "The Da Vinci Code, that guy?" And I was like, "Nice joke, old guys on NBC." [laughs] Yeah, right. Sadly.
2:20
Like that was so, so vintage, like trying to, you know, try to, try to sound cool for the young kids watching.
2:26
Like, "Let me make a Dan Brown Da Vinci Code joke," but, uh, yeah, that's about all that they could come up with. I mean, he played, so he played in the Scottish Open last week. I, my...
2:33
But the only thing I'm trying to figure out now is how did he qualify, or how did he get into the Scottish Open [laughs] which I don't really get. He did make the cut there.
2:40
Before that, he had missed cut or withdrawn in six straight tournaments on the, on the DP World Tour. So that's what you were dealing with yesterday at Daniel Brown. And you know the worst part about it, Ben?
2:50
Is how many people I was, I w- I was tweeting with yesterday who golf coverage went off the air on, on USA. They didn't switch over to Peacock- They just-...
3:00
had Shane Lowry first round leader tickets 'cause- There were like two... I think Lowry was about to go to 18 when they switched to Peacock. And I think they were tied at that point.
3:07
Yeah, Brown had a couple holes to go on him. So yes, if you did not, uh, go to the Peacock, you were- Yeah... that's where the dream went down. So you didn't even get to watch your ticket burn up in front of you.
3:15
Uh, Brown made his, made his w- way into the field due to, uh, final qualifying. Okay. So he did, he had to go the hard way.
3:21
Uh, previously just one win in the European tour, which is when he beat Matthew Fitzpatrick's, uh, brother, as many know him, as Alex Fitzpatrick, uh, last August. That was his first win on the European tour.
3:32
Uh, needless to say, and h- you know, honestly though, you would th- I didn't see what the second round prop on Brown was today after he gained [laughs] almost four and a half strokes putting on the field.
3:40
They actually similar numbers, uh, from a advanced data standpoint as to what Shane Lowry did, but you had to th- have, have assumed the over under for round two, Kelly, was in the mid 70s on Brown.
3:50
Honestly, he hasn't been bad today. One over through 13. He is still solo second right now. It has not been this, uh, this come up and then this rapid, uh, decline. Yeah.
3:58
But what is really impressive, which- is what Shane Lowry has done, he goes two under through his final five holes here.
4:03
Uh, the strokes gained data does not come out till these guys are in the clubhouse, and it's a little bit delayed on that, so we don't have SG data yet on Shane Lowry. But, uh, he goes to seven under par.
4:11
He is a plus 180 favorite to win the golf tournament. Uh, having said all that, the pre-tournament favorite, Scottie Scheffler, is still in really good shape.
4:18
Scheffler at three under par right now, has a par putt, uh, to, from about eight feet to get into the clubhouse at three under par, be solo fourth, and, uh, he is a guy you did add, Kelly, overnight.
4:28
Has he still not hit that putt yet? Geez. I feel like we- I don't know. I mean-... we saw that forever ago. Um- My leaderboard is not updated. Yeah, me ei- I don't wanna- No, I, m- mine's saying the same thing. Yeah.
4:36
Uh, the, uh, yeah, I added Scheffler this morning, um, couple hours ago. It was a little over four to one. Oh, he missed the putt. Missed the putt, cool. Two under- There you go... into the clubhouse.
4:44
T4 at two under par, but a, a one under. That's back to back 70s, so not, not, uh, not the worst situation to be in.
4:50
Five back, uh, he is plus 360, so even, you know, where you added him, Kelly, as we'll talk about, he is at least numbers-wise in better shape as the second favorite right now.
4:59
I'm assuming that number's gonna get longer, although the books are usually ahead of us when the TV coverage. Um, anyways, I bet him at like four 10.
5:08
I was gonna say just four strokes off, I think he'd still be a good bet at plus 360. Um, you know, j- uh, but now we're talking five strokes. Shane Lowry, uh, doing, doing what he do- uh, I, I mean, what he's done.
5:22
I'm not gonna take anything away from Shane Lowry. He's, uh, played great golf and absolutely has the capability, uh, to go win this tournament. We have seen him do it before.
5:31
Um, it's just you've also had, so what, 39, this from Justin Ray, 39 of the last 44 open champi- uh, champions have been in the top 10 after 36 holes.
5:40
Um, also had- Uh, y- well, after the first round, nobody had come, nobody had come back to win the thing, win the thing outside of four strokes back.
5:50
So all, all things to keep in mind if you don't, if you're, uh, considering getting involved- Yeah... with Scottie Scheffler like I did. Basically, one under then is your threshold right now.
5:58
That's where a host of guys are at, uh, as far as the top 10.
6:01
The guys in the clubhouse at one under, Corey Conners, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, who was really good today, and the third favorite right now on the odds board, uh, Xander Schauffele, who is in the clubhouse at one under par.
6:12
Also, a couple guys at two under in the clubhouse, Billy Horschel, Dean Burmester. I would not have thought, uh, especially Horschel with the way his form has been. Yeah. I would not have handicapped him in my top five.
6:22
But those are your guys, uh- Yeah, Bur- Burmester was a popular pick, yeah... yeah, Burmester's, yeah, this is a g- a classic links player from South Africa, uh, who, yes, has been very good in the past at the Open.
6:30
Uh, but those are your guys in the clubhouse right now, and it, it's a small list.
6:32
I mean, at the very least, Kelly, you're getting a guy about the same price as Scheffler went off at pre-tournament, and you basically are eliminating, what, 88% of the field with that bet.
6:42
Yeah, exactly, and I, and, and I don't, I w- I wouldn't have made it, um, I mean, look, I was expecting a little bit more regression from Shane Lowry. That didn't happen.
6:50
But, uh, I also wouldn't have made it if it, if it looked like the weather was gonna calm down more this afternoon.
6:57
I, I think it does look like there's gonna be a bit of a wave advantage when it's all said and done, uh, for this tournament, something we're gonna be talking about a little bit, uh, uh, next year.
7:05
Um, 'cause I think this weather's probably only getting worse here this afternoon. And it might not be im- you know, a ton, but they're already playing through tough conditions.
7:12
They already played through tough conditions this morning, and if it gets any tougher, uh, they're in a, they're in a pretty rough spot.
7:18
I think a, a couple guys, just if you were looking to get in, like, live, uh, with guys still playing, I would caution because of the weather. But, um, like I had bets on Tony Finau. I loved him coming in.
7:29
He's at even par right now, just getting his round started. He's through two holes.
7:33
Joaquin Niemann, I, I know he's got a game that i- I didn't bet, bet him at all, uh, Ben, but he, he's got a game that is fit for these conditions with the low ball flight and everything that he's able to take, and he's already two under on his round through three holes.
7:47
So he's someone I would consider, too, if you're looking for some live, uh, live betting opportunities. Sure thing. Yeah, you'd figure too this cut.
7:53
It's projected four over if you look at the website right now, but there are 72 guys, top 70 in ties, that make the cut. It was four over back in 2016.
8:01
You have to think, though, with the way the weather is turning here for the afternoon, uh, the wave there, Kelly. You have a bunch of guys who have just started who are in that three, four over range.
8:09
Gotta think this gets to five at the very least, right? Yeah, I would think five or six, but yeah, gonna depend on the conditions here and h- how tough it is for these guys in the afternoon.
8:18
Yeah, some notable guys who are right on that, uh, cut line. Robert McIntyre triples one. He's four over. Ludvig Åberg just teed off and parred the first. He's at four.
8:26
Viktor Hovland about to get underway as well shortly, uh, four over as well.
8:30
And, uh, the guy who was the leader actually when we came on the air yesterday, Kelly, in that, that early to late wave that we figured would be kind of second-best as far as the optimal start time for Thursday, Friday, Justin Thomas, three under par, was for a long time the round one leader before all, all those guys late in the afternoon surged ahead of him.
8:46
JT six over through his first seven holes today, and so he's gone from being on the front page of the leaderboard to in danger of just, uh, getting to the weekend here as he's three over now for the tournament.
8:56
T-39 for JT. Love JT, man. Man. But this is a great example of how his season has been, uh, thus far, right? He's put- Up and down... he's had some great finishes.
9:04
He's had some m- you know, more miscuts than we're used to seeing from him. He's kind of been all over the place all year, so I, I think no surprise to see that. Ah, JT, JT, JT.
9:14
Yes, it would, uh, looked so good for a round up. Also, the other couple of guys, just shout out to Justin Rose. We haven't mentioned his name yet. Four under par for the tournament.
9:21
He's through eight holes there, but, uh, Justin Rose two under today. He's been super consistent so far, solo third right now, a shot behind, uh, Daniel Brown.
9:28
Again, Shane Lowry is the leader and your tournament favorite at seven under par, looking for a second Open championship after winning at Royal Portrush back in 2019.
9:37
In case people are wondering too, I did get, I, I asked for it, but I did get multiple- You got multiple... not one bet, multiple tickets of first round leader on Daniel Brown, uh, sent to me from yesterday. Crazy.
9:49
Now, no bet was bigger than $2, but, uh, still. [laughs] Hey. But still. A win's a win, man. A win's a win. [laughs] A $2 bet on Daniel Brown is, like, you know, almost like a, like 1,000- That, that one was $600.
9:59
That was three, three, uh, 300 to 1. Yeah, I was gonna say, I was gonna say that's alm- that's like a, you know, $300 bet on, uh, on Scottie Scheffler, uh, [laughs] to, based on where some of those numbers were at.
10:07
Or a live bet on, uh, on, uh, Shane Lowry.
10:10
Uh, some of the other, uh, news and notes here, NBA-wise, this is not something that, uh, will move the needle really, Kelly, but, uh, the Russell Westbrook sign and trade is, is, uh, is apparently going to be complete here soon, and he is expected to be bought out from his contract, sign and trade between the Clippers and Utah Jazz.
10:25
Russ goes to Utah, but they're expected to buy him out, and he is expected, Russell Westbrook, according to ESPN, to sign with the Denver Nuggets, uh, where he will, uh, hey, will, will, will that be, for a team that had so little bench depth at the very least- Yeah...
10:37
Kelly, will that be a, a boon for the Nuggets as they try to get back to supremacy in the Western Conference? I at least thought that was interesting, uh, yesterday. Yeah, I think a move like...
10:44
Well, I was a little frustrated after I just sat on here yesterday and talked about betting Christian Brown for most improved player. And then- And, uh, yeah, and then they get R- add Russell Westbrook.
10:52
Is he gonna e- you know, eat up some minutes? We'll see. Um, frustrated me a little bit, [laughs] a little bit.
10:57
I don't, I don't, I still kinda stand, I stand by the bet 'cause Christian Brown will still be in the starting lineup, uh, but it, it is something at least to be aware of.
11:05
Um, I think a move like that yesterday, Ben, and, and this, we're gonna need a couple years, uh, of sample size before we can really jump to these conclusions, but these, some of these teams, a, a, uh, th- this second apron stuff and what they're doing with the salary cap is really affecting some of these teams.
11:22
And when you see the Nuggets make a move like this, it just, it just reeks of desperation to me, that they lost KCP. They need any kind of depth that they can. They're adding Russell Westbrook.
11:31
I don't think it's really a great fit. Um, but they have so little- Sure... such little depth off the bench, like you're talking about anybody helps, I guess.
11:38
And Chris Dunn goes to the Clippers as part of that sign and trade, uh, deal, three-year, $17 million contract with the Clips.
11:43
We'll continue the NBA talk 'cause Kelly has a win total bet, and we'll talk some defensive player of the year as we're just getting started here on the Friday edition of The Numbers Game.
11:55
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12:35
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12:40
Get full VSiN Pro access through the Super Bowl for an early bird discount of $175, vsin.com/subscribe. We will talk a lot of NFL today. We'll finish up our AFC divisions, a little AFC South, AFC West to close this hour.
12:54
Also, we'll go through our, uh, our kind of a new way version of our power ratings, which Gil and Kelly do throughout the regular season.
12:59
We'll go top five, bottom five, which I think, Kelly, is a very, um, interesting exercise. We'll do that, uh, we'll do that later. I think we have some, some weird things that will come from it. It is.
13:07
It was a good idea by you, and for anybody that hates, uh, uh, Ben on Gil crime, there is more coming later in that segment. Oh, there is? Nice. Can't wait. There is. You made your rankings.
13:17
[laughs] I didn't know what Gil's rankings are, so I didn't, I didn't, you know... I try to be, uh, open with this.
13:22
I was, I, the idea came- I'm just saying there's a team that's special to Gil's heart that you have- Oh, oh, oh, yeah... you have ranked pretty low. Oh, okay. Gotcha. Well, that makes sense.
13:30
Um, hey, but it, like, that, that's the reason why it's, it's not post-season power ratings, it's pre-season power ratings. [laughs] We're, we're wrong on this all the time.
13:36
I think we universally had the Texans, like, bottom five last year, and, uh, and they did, they did great. Yep. Uh, we'll get to that in a little bit.
13:43
Um, as far as the NBA, we're gonna talk here, Kelly has a win total bet he has made. We'll also talk some defensive player of the year, but I, I saw this story yesterday.
13:51
I know you were, we were talking about this as well, Kelly, uh, where David Purdum from ESPN reporting on all the bets coming in on, uh, Bronny James to win Rookie of the Year.
14:00
So all those people who bet their hard-earned cash on Bronny James to go number one overall in the NBA draft who lost were like, "Fear not, we're gonna make all this money back by just going to the well on Bronny James to win [laughs] Rookie of the Year here."
14:11
There was a $1,000 Rookie of the Year bet taken by MGM at 250-1. Ugh.
14:19
Um, yeah, dr- accor- according to DraftKings, only Zach Edney, who was the, the early, that California Summer League, the star there, had his odds cut all the way from 20-1 down to 6-1 in a lot of places.
14:29
Only Edney has taken more money than James in the Rookie of the Year market.
14:33
Which, like, on the surface I get because it's a hard market this year, a lot of uncertainty, but at the same time, one player of those two, who's getting a lot of the action, has legitimately a 0.0001% chance of winning this award, and that 1% chance is only because nothing is guaranteed do not happen in this life, Kelly.
14:50
So we have to put a one at the very end of it. [laughs] Yes, I agree. And that is Bronny James to win Rookie of the Year. That is a great way to describe that absolute... [laughs] In betting, nothing is guaranteed, yes.
14:59
[laughs] It's like the, uh, you know, it's basically like the Kevin Malone from The Office thing of, of if anything has 10,000 to one odds on it, you're obligated to bet it.
15:06
[laughs] That's kind of what people are doing with Bronny James, except it's not 10,000 to one, even though it, it should be. It should be. It probably should be longer. Yeah, it should be.
15:12
Uh, look, Bronny had another nice game last night, um- He did, yes... for the Lakers. The 13 points, five rebounds, three assists, two blocks. I, I ended up watching, uh, you know, a fair amount of it. Again, this is...
15:22
I mean, I know a lot of people might be complaining about, you know, no baseball on, nothing, nothing's on to, to bet on.
15:27
Man, I, between Summer League and golf every, a- and everything, Ben, I'm busy every day watching this stuff, man.
15:33
Uh, [laughs] but he, uh, I thought he put out another good performance last night, but yeah, man, re- reading this David Purdum piece, and this is, I, I had started to hear, I had heard this when the market had just gotten open, but man, these Rookie of the Year bets, this is, uh, like, this is a worse bet than betting him to go number one overall.
15:49
Like, I real- I really believe that bet.
15:51
Like, may- maybe there was some bizarre, bizarre, bizarre world where, like, they felt so desperate or somebody felt so desperate to get Bronny James to try to lure LeBron, that that could have happened in the first round.
16:03
I... That would've been a remote, a remote chance- Yes... when we, when we talk about percentages. I still think there was a better chance of that happening, though, than him winning Rookie of the Year.
16:11
This guy, we're talking about a guy who in all likelihood is going to start in the G League, should start in the G League.
16:16
If you like Bronny James, you're actually rooting for the kid, he should be in the G League and developing for the bulk of this season. He shouldn't be in the NBA much of this season.
16:24
Now, do I think we're gonna see him play in an NBA game this season? Yes, I do.
16:28
I, I, I think that this whole playing with his dad LeBron thing has, has been a narrative and a true story for the past three, four years now, however we've been ta- however long we've been talking about it at this point.
16:39
Once the Lakers drafted him, I think this, it showed that all of that was all true, what we were talking about for years. So does he play in a game? Yeah, but he's not gonna win Rookie of the Year.
16:48
You're right, it's a wide open race, but you're talking about, uh, there's 20, 30 guys that are gonna get regular minutes for NBA teams this season that would be way in front of him. So I just, just don't think...
17:00
If you're gonna go bet Br- Bronny James, pick anything else. I don't care. Literally anything else. Go, go up to the roulette wheel and put it all on double green. It's a better bet than Bronny James Rookie of the Year.
17:09
I- Uh... I just wanted to, I just want- Uh, it's- Just wanted to put a, the, put, put that out there, Ben... the point being...
17:13
Uh, no, it's, uh, it's well worth talking about, and it's also the point being just because a, uh, a specific market is wide open does not equate to you as a bettor just going out and betting the longest shot simply because, oh, well, there's uncertainty, and it's up in the air, and you will go and bet.
17:26
Remember, this is a guy who averaged five points a game off the bench for a bad college team la- last year. Like, that- Yep... those are just the facts, uh, as far as Bronny James. Yeah, I'm rooting for the kid.
17:34
Um, and we are, and I think we all- Like, I'm rooting for him... yeah, we'd love to see, especially, I mean, you can't even imagine how hard it has to be for the kid, right?
17:39
Given the circumstances, given your dad, all that, uh, you wanna see success, but it's, it's not gonna happen right away. Yeah. Not, not the way to bet this.
17:47
However, there is one very interesting award market that, uh, has, has really started to get shaped in, and that's largely because of the debate we had going into the end of last year, Rudy Gobert versus Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year.
17:58
A lot of conjecture and a lot of, uh, a lot of Wemby bettors are still kind of, are still sort of saying, "Hey, another block by Wembanyama. Is, is the NBA gonna recognize that?"
18:07
Well, even though Gobert wins it, uh, going back to the end of last season, now the expectation is it will, this, this will be the sophomore year where Wembanyama fully takes the mantle for Defensive Player of the Year.
18:17
I've seen him priced as high as minus 170, 180, um, here at DK. Kelly, is you, you're certainly having to pay a tax- Yeah...
18:23
and that's a lot to pay on an award market, uh, as we're, what, uh, three months out from the season even starting. Yeah, I was, I was expecting this to open around even money, maybe minus 110.
18:33
I, it wouldn't surpri- it wasn't gonna surprise me if he was odds on. It, the first place that opened up was MGM, I believe, and it was minus 250 is what they opened up with. [laughs] Yeah.
18:43
And now we have some other books that are starting to post this. You're gonna get, you're gonna get this market rounding to shape a little bit, uh, better.
18:49
Uh, minus 170, I believe, at DraftKings right now is where he is at for Defensive Player of the Year. Gobert plus 750, and then you get Chet Holmgren and Ben at abou- at a bio 12 to one a piece.
19:00
Look, I, I've talked about a long time, Gil and I have talked about a long time, we were planning on having Wemby Defensive Player of the Year bets heading into the season. Um, I did bet him MVP when that opened.
19:09
I think this is very interesting to monitor. It, it, it's all about price a- and I'm not saying...
19:15
I'm wa- I'm gonna watch where these numbers move because as you see more and more shops opening this, they're opening them at a little bit longer odds than where we saw MGM first enter the market with.
19:24
So I think if you are looking to bet Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year, there's no reason to rush. Wait till more books open up.
19:30
Let's see how this, uh, kinda rounds into shape, uh, uh, uh, across all the books over the next couple months before the season starts.
19:37
I might have a bet before the season on him, Ben, but I think at this number, if I knew it was gonna be -170 was the best I could get, it would have to be a p- just pause, wait, hope to get something in season at a little bit better number.
19:51
Um, but it's close. If it gets down to -130, [laughs] -140, something like that, I'll probably be grabbing a, a piece heading into the season because I think there is...
19:59
There, you rarely see this with NBA awards, but I do think there is a potential reality where he does go from -170, and that's the cheapest price you see on him all season long. Sure.
20:10
I think he is, he does have that skill. The mentality of the sports books as well, especially if you're setting that thing at -250 without even taking a bet is- You want no action...
20:17
an obvious sign to me, like we would rather write a kajillion tickets on Rudy Gobert and have- Yep... all that exposure than take one big bet on Wembanyama at a fair-ish price. That's kinda how I interpret that. Mm-hmm.
20:27
You know, and at the same time too, like you can, you could make like,
20:31
uh, d- you could make some great cases, and you haven't been able to get num- uh, numbers on these guy- I mean, you wanna tell me you're betting Jaren Jackson Jr. 18 to 1, Giannis at 20 to 1? Yeah.
20:40
[laughs] I, I mean, those are, those are not bad bets in my opinion, and, uh, this is, it, it might, you know, the opposite, right?
20:46
This might be the only time all year you're gonna be able to get something th- that long on those guys. Could be very true as well. A win total market-wise, we've had the t- win totals out.
20:53
DK's had these posted for about five days now. Vegas books have just posted them as well. Kelly, you have been, uh, it's been on your list for a while- Yeah... waiting, and, uh, you did trigger one bet here.
21:01
Yeah, I, I bet one. The, uh, look, I think it, it's always, it's always a little fun to me year to year of how much, uh, like always around this time is when we get win totals, awards get posted.
21:10
I felt like last year, Ben, I had a list of probably six bets that I was ready to fire on as soon as stuff opened. They were near numbers that I expected on and were bets right away for me.
21:20
Just not the same this year, win totals and awards. Not, I, I made a couple bets, but nothing that, that, uh, nothing I'm going crazy over.
21:27
I was looking at the Spurs over, was getting in- interested to see what their win total was gonna be set at. Was set a couple wins higher than I thought it was gonna be, so backed off of that one. 35 and a half.
21:37
Uh, yeah, 35 and a half. I think actually the way I'm gonna approach that is when we get alternate win totals open, we talk about it a lot in the NFL, alt win totals, just as valuable if not more in the NBA.
21:47
That's one I'll probably still bet, but I'll just be- I'll bet over on the alt high, uh, just, just banking on them having a ridiculously good season, uh, hopefully. Um, I'll probably make that.
21:57
The Grizzlies I might get involved with still as well, but where I actually ended up going to is at the bottom of the board here [laughs] and it is with the Brooklyn Nets.
22:05
We talked about this a little bit with Drew Dinsick earlier in the week. There are a couple teams out there, the Nets, the Wizards, possibly the Blazers, man, they're g- they, they're gonna be packing it in early.
22:15
These teams are very devoid of talent, and especially the Brooklyn Nets.
22:18
That roster is really, really weak, and when you do have someone like Cooper Flagg, uh, coming up in the NBA draft next year, this is back, th- this is not this past year. There is- [laughs] Right. We're back.
22:28
Yeah, there is something actually worth chasing in the NBA draft.
22:31
Um, obviously you gotta deal with the lottery system still, but there's gonna be some incentive for some of those teams that you're seeing with those low win totals- Yeah... to go low.
22:39
It is so funny how the bottom of the NBA standings win total-wise, it seems like odd makers can never price these guys low enough. It's just the reality of tanking in the NBA.
22:46
We'll start our NFL talk next, break down the AFC South on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back here on the Friday edition of A Numbers Game with Kelly Pidlin.
23:02
I'm Ben Wilson. We'll start our NFL breakdowns, the rest of our AFC division previews here in just a second.
23:06
Uh, Kelly and I were just watching, uh, random beachgoers at the, uh, at Troon Scotland just kind of walk through the fescue apparently and onto the course, so I mean- Well, you get- That's cool... I mean, what?
23:17
You get a, you got a train track rolling through. I'll tell you the one thing I didn't, I didn't know or didn't remember I guess from 2016 was the, the airport, like the, the, there's a, there's- It's awesome...
23:27
literally an airport that's like right behind the golf course. So like late, late in the round yesterday, they kept showing planes just landing [laughs] like right- Awesome... I think it was, I think that's- Yeah...
23:37
17 or 18 that was right there. Yeah. Great stuff. I mean, n- now you're not gonna get a suntan out there on the beach. It's just no, uh, this is no Happy Gilmore, uh- Right, yeah... sort of situation here.
23:48
Uh, but at least if you go to the beach, you can potentially walk on.
23:51
Uh, some of the s- I just wanted to bring up some of the strokes gained data that did just come out here, Kelly, for guys that have wrapped up their rounds. Shane Lowry today gains 2.69 strokes on the field on approach.
24:00
That is number one so far of guys who have finished their second rounds.
24:03
He was, uh, Lowry was pretty much average with the, with the putter today, and so which was a good sign for him because he was so good with the putter yesterday, comes back to earth, yet was still two under for his round, seven under, plus 180 tournament favorite.
24:15
Scottie Scheffler actually lost strokes on approach today, which would definitely surprise you. Yeah. But he gained, he gained a lot of it back with the putter today.
24:21
This kind of shows even with, uh, Scheffler in tough conditions, not at his best today based on what we're used to, he still goes back-to-back 100 par rounds to be right there in contention.
24:30
T4 at two under par, and he is second on the odds board at about plus 360 right now.
24:35
So those are some of the strokes gained data coming out, but, uh, vintage Scottie I would say for one, uh, and then even, even with the poor a- approach game by his standards, and then two, the fact that Shane Lowry, uh, the advanced numbers do look so good for him has gotta be a very good sign if you were betting Lowry here going forward.
24:50
Yeah, that, he is tough.
24:51
Uh, he's gonna be tough to figure out going forward, uh, for round three, round four because my initial instinct w- would say e- even though he was about level on putting today, what did, what'd he gain, six strokes or, or something [laughs] with the flat stick yesterday?
25:03
Almost, almost five yesterday. Yeah, like you would still expect that to regress a little bit over the weekend, yet the guy's clearly got the wind, the conditions, the course figured out o- better than anybody right now.
25:14
So I, I, I don't really know that I'll be- The appra- we figured the approach game would be so important based on the conditions.
25:18
Lowry between yesterday and today, I'm just doing my calculator here with the decimals, fi- uh, five and a half strokes gained on approach over the first two rounds. Yeah, that's pretty fucking good.
25:27
Like if you're gaining five and a half more strokes on approach, you're winning the golf tournament if you're Lowry. It's just a question of can you...
25:32
And he's been a little bit wayward off the tee, but we've seen that off the tee has not really mattered As much, uh, the fescue is definitely playable. Lowry hit some brilliant shots out of the fescue today.
25:41
Yeah, I think it was, uh, it was interesting. It was interesting.
25:43
I, I meant to text to her too about this, but it was interesting h- hearing some of the comments and reading some of the comments that came out, uh, from, from some of the players yesterday, 'cause it was...
25:53
I, you know, some of them seemed to have been confused by the wind and the direction, while there were others that were saying, "No, this is kind of what it's been the past couple days."
26:01
I, I know there was some on the coverage talking a- talking about that, how the wind had kind of shifted a little bit where, the direction it was coming from, uh, uh, compared to the days prior.
26:11
But, you know, Shane Lowry, I think he had a good comment. When he, when... Had, had played this course multiple times, came here for a couple weeks ago for a practice round.
26:18
Uh, said the, you know, said the weather was basically so bad and all over the place while he was here playing a practice round.
26:23
He was like, "I got a feel for every d- every wind direction I could possibly see and what it's gonna do, and what it's gonna do to my, uh, to the golf ball when I'm playing here." Yeah, no question. It, this...
26:32
For certain guys who haven't figured that out, like, it is so stark, the contrast between guys at the top. Uh, we watched it happen to Cam Smith yesterday, just looked lost all day.
26:41
Former Open champion winner, who is, uh, in all likelihood, going to miss the cut here, uh, with, uh, barring something crazy happening for him in this late afternoon window.
26:48
Uh, we'll keep you updated as we continue on this second-round coverage of the Open Championship. For now, though, Kelly, it is NFL division talk time.
26:55
We'll do some power ratings here, our top five and bottom five later on in the show, but, uh, we've been talking AFC here throughout the week.
27:00
We'll go to the South, uh, where Kelly is still getting over the, uh, the Jaguars not winning the division from last year. Uh, but, uh- Brutal... we're here, we're, we're here to, here to make it all back.
27:09
And I, we start at the top with the Houston-Jacksonville, uh, comparison really more than anything.
27:13
Because, you know, Houston goes from worst to first, and now just as the discussion came with Jacksonville last year, it was how do you handle being in a new role?
27:20
Texans are the favorite at about plus 105, nine-and-a-half win total. Uh, Jags eight-and-a-half on the win total, plus 275. And, uh, we start there, and also with the idea of is there a third team?
27:30
Do the Colts feel live to make a run at this division? Also an eight-and-a-half win total, uh, at plus 310. At least for me, I s- I rated Houston one, Jacksonville two, Indy three, but the gap is definitely a lot closer.
27:42
And, and, and is probably, I, I'd say slightly closer than maybe these odds would indicate.
27:47
It's just a matter of both Jacksonville and Indy have glaring weaknesses and holes that you wanna see proven before you can really get on board.
27:54
That's kinda how I, I view the start of the season with both of those teams. Um, I agree. I think that Jacksonville,
28:02
especially after last year, I think Jacksonville, you've seen the problems with your own eyes [laughs] a little bit more. I think we are kind of at a point with, uh...
28:12
You know, I, I'll just speak offensively, 'cause de- defensively they've got some of their own, uh, some of their own issues.
28:16
But I think offensively there's, we're kind of hit the point where, okay, Trevor Lawrence has to e- either...
28:22
If this is what you're gonna get from Trevor Lawrence going forward, I think it's gonna be hard for this team to be a true Super Bowl contender, uh, at any point.
28:29
If the guy can take a, take a jump to another level, uh, I think that changes, but it's just something I'm not worth betting on at this point, Ben. Um, and, and I don't really know where they rank.
28:39
I do think this, this, this, uh, division is very interesting this year coming into it. I don't know where... I, I know I've heard some people betting them to win the division.
28:47
Um, I know there's some people that think they're fini- we're, we're talking them finishing third or, third or fourth possibly in this division. I think, I think all those are realistic.
28:55
I think from what we've seen the past couple years, um, Jacksonville should be up there. But man, I, I, uh, you know, I am pretty high on Anthony Richardson. I, I, I was very high on him last year coming in.
29:07
I think from what we saw in the brief glimpses last year is there's potentially something special in, in Indianapolis at the quarterback position.
29:15
Um, I don't think that would lead me to betting any of the team numbers, though, on Indianapolis. If anything, it, it, it's probably...
29:21
I haven't bet it yet, but I'll probably will have a long, you know, a longer shot MVP ticket, uh, on Anthony Richardson heading into the year. I just think he has that kind of upside.
29:29
And if he does, you know, you're looking at that at, like, 40 to 1, right, Ben?
29:33
Like, I would rather bet that at 40 to 1 than any long shots, you know, alt over their win totals, or win the division, or anything like that.
29:40
Because if he's really playing that well, that's where the team's gonna be at, but he's in, he's going to be in the, in the running for that kind of award. Sure.
29:47
The interesting dynamic I just noticed when you look at the positional rankings here, you have, honestly, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, all three of them have, you know, Jacksonville's the closest to, you know, right at 50/50, middle of the pack.
29:58
But I would argue all three of those teams have below average rosters on the whole.
30:02
But if you just, if you're specifically looking at Jacksonville and Indianapolis, what is fascinating about their defenses is that the secondary is by far the biggest weakness.
30:10
Houston, who is the favorite to win this division, has basically punted on the running back room. The offensive line has been a mess. And yet despite all that, we saw the success last year because of the ability of C.J.
30:19
Stroud to air the ball deep down the field.
30:22
You now have these bad secondaries in a division where you're gonna have to slow down Stroud at some point in these divisional games if you want to overcome them to win the division.
30:29
So as much as I have, I have concerns about the offensive line for Houston, I, I do, uh, imagine that all the, all the injuries, all the shuffling, at a certain point you can't get away with that forever.
30:38
And they do feel pretty one-dimensional, the Houston Texans on offense. Yet at the same time, you know, where, where Jacksonville and Indianapolis, their strength lies in the front seven.
30:47
It's not at all in the secondary. And so that's, I think, where a lot of our concern for being, for having a lot of conviction comes into this, Kelly.
30:54
Where there is certainly a path, if, if that cannot be figured out by the two teams trying to take over the top spot from Houston, Jacksonville, and Indy You could see a lot of those interdivision games where all of a sudden it's like, all right, Stroud throwing for 350 and four touchdowns because- Yeah...
31:07
the secondary is just so poor.
31:09
And then it becomes, well, even if Anthony Richardson is great, even if Trevor Lawrence, you know, plays to the potential and up to the ability of the contract he was given this off season, well, what does that really matter if your defense is that bad and the rest of your offense is so weak?
31:21
And that's what I keep coming back to, and it's why I don't have a bet, uh, in this AFC South. I don't, I, I don't either. Yeah, I think, uh, you just laid that out quite well.
31:28
I think a couple things to run through with the Texans, right?
31:30
For as, for everything that happened last year and what we thought about them heading into, heading into the year, and the one thing we can all agree on, I think, is C.J. Stroud's awesome.
31:38
I think, I think right away, Ben, like I'm not expecting... I, I, I know we always try to be cautious with second-year quarterbacks. Are they gonna take a step back after having a great rookie season?
31:47
I don't think that's happening with C.J. Stroud. I think this guy really is all that... I- is that good. He is a top 10 quarterback, uh, in the league and is gonna continue to play like that.
31:55
So okay, where did they overachieve last year? They were... They had a great record of one-score games, seven and three. Uh, that's usually something you expect to regress a little bit. But they like...
32:05
The, the injury luck, you're talking about having... Uh, you talked about some of those injuries. The injury luck they had on the offensive line was the worst in the NFL last year. Correct. So some of the...
32:13
You know, if you can have a little bit healthier year, which is just luck, heal- healthier year, they should have a little bit more consistency on that offensive line.
32:21
So I, I think that's a big deal, and I love what they've done. I love what they've done bringing in De- Deone Hunter. I think the defense gets stronger, has...
32:28
Well, the pass rush is a lot scarier now, uh, with him in there for, for Houston. I like this receiving corps.
32:35
I think this team wins the division, but Jacksonville and Indy scare me enough that it's not worth making a bet on for me, either to the win total or the division.
32:44
But I think what you laid out is an extreme- e- extremely likely possibility that way. In these in-division games, it is Stroud just slinging the ball all over these other teams. Sure thing.
32:53
Well, the, the, the total roster point as well. I mean, Houston, I had 30th out of 32 teams coming into last year total roster. I have them 10th now this year, and you naturally ask yourself that question.
33:02
And when you're talking about preseason projections, is that too much buying into the hype, right? Mm-hmm. Are you making too much of an adjustment?
33:07
But there were a lot of adds, and it is fair to say this is a top five wide receiver group now when you bring in a Stefon Diggs, who has so much to prove now, but still clearly has a lot left in the tank, uh, to that, uh, to that element.
33:18
Should also be pointed out, I think, why we're not as high, you know, maybe not as bullish on Houston just to go out and win this division going away. Sixth toughest strength of schedule- Yep... uh, this year.
33:26
It's, it's... It is not a fourth place schedule anymore for the Houston Texans, and a new role now for them to approach heading into this year. Uh, we'll talk some AFC West as well when we come back.
33:35
We're continuing our AFC NFL previews today here on The Numbers Game.
33:39
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34:32
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34:43
I'm Ben, he's Kelly, here from the, uh, from the Shield of Bar Canada, uh, at the D. We're watching the Open Championship. It's a great day here to be a sports fan.
34:50
You got the Hungarian Grand Prix, free practice now underway. Uh, Shane Lowry in the clubhouse, seven under par. He is your leader. And, uh, Daniel Brown, gotta, gotta say, have to be impressed, Kelly.
34:59
Thought he would, uh... He's, he's really pulling off the, the Lee Westwood, uh, the fellow Englishman, uh, puffy, puffy vest in the- [laughs]... in the cold here today.
35:07
Uh, yeah, that's kind of giving me Lee Westwood vibes. But, uh, Brown only one over on his round after the 350 to one shot to be first round leader with six under yesterday. Uh, he's at five under par.
35:16
And it, it seems like in the last hour there haven't been many birdies out there, but a lot of the, you know, a lot of guys are at least stabilizing here, which pars feel like a very positive thing at this point, uh, at this stage of the tournament as the weather's gotten a little bit worse.
35:28
Yeah, this is, um, a, a very... First of all, very impressive, uh, by Daniel Brown to s- to stay right there. And just saw from Data Golf a little while ago, a pl- plus seven the projected cut line now by them.
35:40
Plus seven? Seven over, yep. Wow. Well, would not, uh, would not shock me the way this is going for guys further down the board. Rory McIlroy, uh, has just... It's been a, a wild start for him.
35:50
McIlroy, uh, who will be right on that cut line, uh, he, I believe, is about to hit his fifth shot on a par five from the fescue. Uh, he's eight over- Yikes... for the tournament, one over through three.
36:00
Uh, T 111, and that is... It gives you an example of, for these guys not at the top of the leaderboard, I mean, it's just a struggle, uh, just to make par. But that's the other thing.
36:08
I mean, our final groups don't tee off, I think it's like 4:16 PM local time in the UK, which is... Uh, 4:27, excuse me, is the final tee time.
36:18
So we're not gonna know till very, very late, and that's why there's still a lot of golf, a lot of poor conditions to be dealt with, uh, by a lot of these guys.
36:25
Other, uh, just other guys we've been noticing here, Ludvig Aberg, one over through his first five holes today. He's at five over, right on the current cut line. Bryson DeChambeau even through five as well.
36:35
Justin Thomas eight over through 11. He's all the way down to five over. Oh, geez. So yeah. JT. JT, I know. What, what's the biggest surprise to you to the negative? Who, I guess, who's the biggest surprise?
36:46
Biggest surpri- Biggest surprise to the negative, as convenient as it is to say McIlroy, I mean, this is the- That's where I was... I was trying to decide if there, if there's another answer to that.
36:56
It's like that's the obvious one. Um- I, I think it's gotta be Rory. Not that I was betting him or anything, but it's still gotta be Rory for me. You, you know what? I, I got a, I've got a, uh...
37:07
There's probably a lot of people are gonna say what after I say this, but, uh, for how hot Aaron Rai has been recently- Oh, yeah, golf hardos will... They, yeah, they were on him. Six over today.
37:16
He's four over through eight. Yikes. You know, I guess in that same tone, I would say even though the form hasn't been great, but, you know, he's a guy who knows how to play. You have those flipped.
37:24
Four over for the day, six over for the tournament. Yeah, six over for the tournament. Four over, uh, through eight on his, uh, his round today.
37:31
Um, the ba- the way he started and the way he was in one of those late afternoon, early round waves. I mean, Matt Fitzpatrick, what a brutal round today.
37:39
Seven over for Fitzpatrick, who was one under, uh, through round one, and you figured he was going to be in, in a really optimal situation, but he loses f- how about this, Kelly? Minus 4.- Yeah, man...
37:49
34 strokes on approach today. Right. He lost almost six strokes tee to green, did Fitzpatrick. Y- I mean, that's, that's hard to do, honestly.
37:56
He's the worst of guys who finished, Fitzpatrick by over a stroke, the worst approach player in the field. Okay, here's a... Here's, here's gonna be a fun sweat for me.
38:04
Aaron Rai over Matt Fitzpatrick in a matchup that I have. And they're both six over. They're both six over. [laughs] Oh, man.
38:10
Aaron Rai still, Aaron Rai's still on the course, whi- which is probably not a good thing for me. [laughs] That's not great. You know, not, uh, not as bad as I th-... It was, what, the PGA a f- I forget which PGA.
38:21
It was a few years ago. I had a, um, it was a matchup that involved Cameron Champ, uh, and it involved Thomas Pieters and I think I was fading Champ. Champ was in the clubhouse at, like, 15 over. He'd missed the cut.
38:35
Yeah. Pieters goes out and shoots, like, 81, goes 16 over, and I lose the matchup by one. Oh, my gosh. [laughs] I was just like, "You gotta be freaking kidding me." Oh, that's wild. Anyway, uh, Tiger Woods has finished.
38:45
He's six over for the day, 14 over for the tournament. He will not, uh, be seeing the weekend, will Ti- will Tiger Woods. And, uh, I'd also say, yeah, Wyndham Clark, uh, in the bottom five here.
38:54
Wyndham Clark, 16 over par, nine over today. Uh, Wyndham has really fallen off as far as his form. We'll have some thoughts on that coming up as we wrap up the show.
39:02
For right now, though, time to get into our power rankings. I'm excited to bring this back here, Kelly, as we, as we fire up the Open here, both top five and bottom five.
39:09
NFL power rankings here on our final day together on this show. Let's do it. [upbeat music] Plug it in. Power rankings. Hey, it, it has added meaning today with the, uh, the worldwide Microsoft outage, so. Uh, yeah.
39:21
Hopefully everybody's- Oh... hopefully everybody's doing okay, uh, at home with that. We definitely, uh, hurried in here this morning and double-checked, uh- Yeah...
39:27
all our systems and everything because, uh, man, I was t- I was talking to a couple other friends just, uh, in the broadcasting b- uh, business around the world and, uh, they were...
39:34
There was things happening with systems that they couldn't understand. I see it's affecting some local casinos around town here in, uh, Las Vegas as well. Flights are a mess.
39:43
The, uh, the Sphere, I can't tell whether they're making a joke out of it or if they actually had a problem, but they have, like, an error message up on the Sphere, uh, right now, I believe. Oh, that's funny.
39:51
So yeah, problems everywhere. I know it's dealing with flights and, and 911 systems and everything around there. So they're, they're not really a j- not much of a...
39:58
Not much to laugh at when, uh, when it comes to that stuff, so hopefully everybody's out there doing okay. Sure thing. Especially those traveling. Yeah.
40:04
Well, you, you were worried would I, would the p- would the outage affect me. Would I be... You know, I'm, uh... Would, uh, would my machinery be working today? But luckily I was- You did worry me a little bit.
40:12
Ben always answers me. When Ben doesn't respond to a text message from me, it concerned me. Yeah. Concerns me a little early. Anyway. And if you had Kelly solo today, oh boy, it would've been like- Oh, yeah...
40:20
full open play-by-play, uh, for two hours. Friday, Friday, Friday- [laughs]... basically. Uh, power rankings time then. We'll start. These are, you know, top five.
40:27
I don't think there will be a lot to talk about in the top five. I think the bottom five is gonna be more interesting here, Kelly, but I had to go Chiefs one, shocker. Ravens two for me. I'm really high on the Ravens.
40:36
I have them above the 49ers coming in. Uh, with the Eagles four. Dolphins I guess would be the surprise for me at five. Not a team I was expecting to have there, just, you know, going...
40:44
But going through the rosters, I mean, the, y- really the offensive line and the front seven are the only issues for Miami, but the strengths of their team from secondary being top five to both running back and wide receiver being top three with the sort of personnel that they have, uh, gives me the, the belief that, you know, with a schedule that is, uh, top 10 as far as easiest strength of schedule this year, uh, relatively favorable here.
41:06
While there are some concerns I have for them to the back half of the year, they have... They check off all the boxes, Kelly, as that team that gets off to a fast start.
41:12
Then it becomes, okay, what, what happens down the stretch?
41:14
But at least to start off, to me it is a team that Miami, while I don't have a ton of confidence in them, say, in the postseason, I do like them as a regular season team based on how the roster is constructed this year, and they did, uh, just narrowly round out my top five just ahead of the Detroit Lions, uh, this year for me.
41:29
Okay, I like it. I like it. That was... So Lions were your sixth team? Lions were sixth. That was... 'Cause we usually, you know, when Gil and I, you do this through the season, it's usually top 10. Right.
41:38
So it is, it's always, it's always interesting to see what's that last team you left off, right, at any point. So my- Yeah. Bill, Bills just missed the cut for me as well. Bengals as well.
41:45
Yeah, they were all, all bunched in there close. Yeah. My top five, uh, and this is, uh... I'm just gonna read them 'cause we didn't get, uh, the graphic got, uh, screwed up a little bit here. My top five.
41:54
Chiefs number one. Um, I think as you said, like, this is... I think it's only a hot take at this point after, after last year. It's only a hot take if Chiefs aren't number one to me. I mean, I- [laughs] Pretty much...
42:02
with all the concerns that we, that we, we had about that receiving corps last year and then to actually played out that way on the field and they still won the Super Bowl, i- it's just amazing. So Chiefs one for me.
42:12
I have the Philadelphia Eagles number two. I expect a massive rebound from this team, uh, this season, uh, this season.
42:18
From what the coaching staff that they've overhauled with the, uh, coordinators that they've brought in, uh, with the...
42:24
I do think, uh, there are not many running backs that I, I'm gonna sit here and say thi- I, I think make a big difference. I think Saquon Barkley's gonna make a big difference. There...
42:32
I think there's a, a lot of designs that Kellen Moore can do to make this offense even more explosive. We saw where their defense was hurt last year. Secondary was the major issue.
42:41
That is really what they shored up, uh, in the draft and in, in the off-season. I really like what this Eagles team's gonna be bringing. I put Eagles, Eagles two, 49ers three. I think they...
42:51
You wanna tell me 49ers you got above the Eagles, that's fine. I think those are the top two teams in the NFC, uh, for me. And then I go back to the AFC, um, and that's where I went.
43:00
I went A- uh, the AFC North teams we talked about yesterday. It is Bengals and then it is Ravens, uh, for me. I have a division bet on the Bengals, so I gotta put them above the Ravens. [laughs] You have to.
43:08
Uh, but the Ravens round out that top five. Six for me, and this was very tough to leave them out, is the Buffalo Bills because I love Josh Allen.
43:16
I think anytime you've got Josh Allen on the field, you are live, uh, to win a lot of games. So they would be my sixth team. Okay. Bottom five. This is where the, the debate gets a little bit more interesting.
43:25
I thought, I kind of assumed New England would be further down, but they, they were actually the, uh, the, the starting point of the bottom five here. New England 28 for me. Stunned. I am stunned by that. I know.
43:33
Cardinals 29, Broncos 30, and then Commanders 31, Giants 32, which is mostly roster based. Like, I think the reason why for me is that New England still has enough pieces on defense. Yeah.
43:42
It's a really good front seven, a really good secondary.
43:45
Whereas, you know, Commanders graded out, you know, bottom half of the league in every single positional group for me, but there's also a huge caveat with them [laughs] which is you've got a really, really good head coach, Dan Quinn, who's a d- a good defensive mind coming in.
43:57
And who's to say Dan Quinn can't come in and turn all that around?
43:59
It's just from the very start, that's why I have Washington so low, and that, they, they completely fit the bill to me, Kelly, as this year's Houston if, you know, a lot of things have to go right.
44:08
But if you see, uh, any, any sorts of those expectations, uh, exceeded. And, and to me, the Giants it's, it's, it... I, I was, uh, uh, I was surprised at just how bad.
44:17
When you look at bottom five O line, bottom five wide receiver room, terrible quarterback situation, a bad running back group as well now that you don't have Saquon Barkley anymore.
44:25
Secondary I would argue the worst in the league. Front seven's the only way you can hang your hat on. I don't see that winning you any games this year.
44:31
Uh, that's why the Giants are actually dead last for me, and that's one where you're 10 to one to win, have the fewest wins this year. Tough schedule as well, uh, for the Giants.
44:38
We'll talk the rest of our power rankings coming back in a little bit. Also, we'll get Paul Stone on to talk some games of the year in college football next. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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