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Jul 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 1, 2024
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44:44
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube, TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is the return of producer number nine, so much more than a producer, Kelly Bidlin, back from vacation. Good morning, sir. Good morning. How you doing, man? Good to be back. I'm doing great.
0:30
Wyatt Tomchek did a great job, uh, while you were gone. Sure he did. He did. It was great having him. Glad to see your face though, man. How was your trip? Thanks, man. It was great. It was great. It was refreshing.
0:38
Good to get out of town for a bit, uh, see some people. It was good, man. We had the LoJack on you, Austin, Texas, LA.
0:44
Austin, Texas, LA, was around, was in town using some comps here for in the middle of the week last week, so that was good. A little Resorts World, stayed there for a couple nights. Yeah, yeah. Oh, did you?
0:53
A little staycation. Little staycation, yeah. Bounced around. Was all over the place. Kelly Bidlin, doing vacations right. Austin was awesome, though. I, that, that was... Austin is great. Great city, Austin.
1:01
Had a lot of fun. [laughs] It's g- A lot of fun. This just in. Secret, Austin, awesome. Hotter than hell, though, Gil. Uh, yeah. Hotter than hell. A little humidity there. Yeah. Like this- Yeah...
1:12
it's, like, the, it's like Vegas, Miami combined for the worst possible things. I prefer humidity over this dry heat every time. It was like, it was like 99, 100 degrees with I don't know what percentage humidity.
1:22
Like, I was so sweaty. It was disgusting. Uh, it is July 1st, and as a, almost a tribute to July, we have two guests. Uh, we have Mark Borchardt on baseball, and we have Dalen Cuff on soccer.
1:33
Everybody else told us to go kick rocks. So, uh, Kelly and I, but we have plenty to talk about, uh, beginning with, um, baseball. Obviously, we're gonna get to this, uh, this June bet momentarily.
1:44
Later on the show, I'll have the most wins in the month of July, my pick for the most wins in the month of July. Uh, Wimbledon plays that remain coming up as well, Wimbledon futures, whole bunch to talk about.
1:56
We do begin, though, with, uh, a big congratulations from me to everybody who rode along, and it was a lot of you, on the Houston Astros most wins market for the month of June. Mazel tov to us all.
2:09
We deserve it- Yeah, you do... after what we went through a couple months ago, particularly one out away from cashing a 65-to-1 on the Guardians, falling two games shy on the Guardians in May at 16-1.
2:19
But the Astros at 25-1 at, uh, at William Hill Caesars is, ends up dead heating with the Orioles, but it's an outright win at Circa at 17-1. What a day yesterday was, uh, Kelly. It was, uh, well, what a weekend it was.
2:36
The weekend started, we, Wyatt and I talked about this Friday. Weekend started with, okay, if the Astros go three and O, we win at Circa, at worst it's a dead heat at William Hill Caesars.
2:47
But if they go one and two or O and three, we're out, we're done against the Mets, who by the way, these same exact scenarios applied to the Mets, um, going into the weekend.
2:56
If the, if the Astros ended up going two and one, that's where it got interesting because at that point, then the Dodgers and the Orioles couldn't do better than two and one, neither could sweep, and then you had five other teams that if they went three and O, would participate in a dead heat as well.
3:11
Talking about the Red Sox, the Mariners, the Brewers, the Diamondbacks, and the Cardinals, and good God, if you dead heat but with more than one team, what's the, what's even the point of any of it?
3:19
It's just so egregious. So what happens Friday night? This is how it starts.
3:25
The Astros go out, leave 14 men on base, go two of 14 with runners in scoring position, Bregman boots a ball, three unearned runs on a McNeil home run.
3:34
They get smoked by the Mets, had every opportunity in the world, and I'm thinking to myself, "Self, this cannot be happening again. How do you have 14 men on base, two of 14 runners in scoring position?"
3:46
Worst possible timing for that kind of, uh, for, uh, that kind of night. And so our proverbial back was against the wall right from Friday night on.
3:54
Silver lining of the night was quietly, while that was happening, the D-backs lost, the Red Sox lost, the Dodgers lost, so a couple of the dead heaters sort of sloughed off.
4:03
Next day, Framber Valdez is on the mound, and he just has a meltdown, and the, the Mets go out to a five to, a five to one lead after two, six to one after three, and you're thinking to yourself, "Okay, well, maybe it's just the Mets month.
4:17
We gave it another good run that's gonna fall short." But it was early in the game, right? It was early, so there was still plenty of time to come back, and come back the Astros did.
4:26
Three in the fourth, three in the eighth on a series of spectacular at-bats by the Astros, culminating with Alex Bregman atoning for his sin the previous night with a boot.
4:36
He just has this unbelievable at-bat where, uh, he g- he fights back from O and two, an O two count, and ends up with the two RBI single, um, turning a six to five deficit into a seven to six Astros lead, and they go on to win it nine to six.
4:52
And suddenly we are off life support and there is life, and then also quietly, Mariners lose, Brewers lose, Cardinals lose.
5:00
So all the dead heaters are sloughing off again on a second consecutive day with one notable exception, two notable exceptions.
5:06
One, the Dodgers, who the Giants were about to beat again, bases loaded, one out in a tie game in extra innings, but then the Giants struck out and then fouled out, and then the Dodgers just made 'em pay for it with a touchdown in the top of the 11th.
5:20
They won it 14 to seven. And the even more notable exception was the Orioles just absolutely staved off the Rangers, held on for dear life, won that game.
5:30
So the Orioles were the only team of all the teams I mentioned through Saturday that went two and O. What did that mean?
5:36
That meant that going into Sunday, it was very clear we needed an Astros win and an Orioles loss to win outright at Circa, to have a dead heat at William Hill Caesars.
5:46
Only the Dodgers could have participated in the dead heat as well if they beat the Giants on Sunday.
5:50
And the way it was laid out, Kelly, was perfect in terms of the schedule, which we could not have anticipated, which was- Astros Mets in the morning. Right.
5:58
Giants Dodgers as a sort of lunchtime game in the middle, and then the Orioles and the Rangers happen to be Sunday night baseball. Oh, that was a perfect setup. You could possibly hedge later or something. Who knows?
6:10
So I'm not a hedger by nature, but I thought to myself, "Okay, well, I have a couple opportunities to think about a hedge during this day." All right, game starts. Um- Great plan going into the day. [laughs] Great plan.
6:21
By the way, on Friday, I also mentioned at the end of the segment with Wyatt, I'm like, "Oh, by the way, there's a little rain in the forecast for Sunday. Just keep an eye on that." Right, yeah. All right.
6:29
So first thing happens, the Mets put out kind of a semi-facachta lineup, see it-ish. Um, it's, it's not really their best lineup, five through eight. So I'm like, "Well, I'm not hedging here.
6:39
I'm not gonna do that against a facachta lineup." Astros go up four to nothing, and we're like, "Okay, this is awesome."
6:46
Mets get two in the sixth, then two in the seventh on a two out 0-2 pitch, Brandon Nimmo parks a two-run homer, and it's four to four, and I'm like, "This cannot be happening again. Come on. Come on, gambling gods.
7:02
Come on. We deserve this." Four to four, middle of the ninth. Remember that rain? The rain comes. Two hour, 47 minute delay.
7:15
Now, think about this delay, why it's agonizing, not only is because this huge bet is on the line, but
7:21
you know the whole time that when the rain delay happened, middle of the ninth, that in order to have a chance to win the game, you still have to get through the bottom of the ninth. Sure, yeah.
7:30
So you're at a big disadvantage. And oh, by the way, Josh Hader had been warming up, your closer.
7:36
So in the back of your mind, you didn't want to acknowledge it, you're like, "Oh, no, are they not gonna be able to use him also?" So you're just like, "This is awful."
7:44
By the way, probably the funniest moment of the two hour 47 minute delay is this guy over here on my right.
7:49
He doesn't know this, but Kelly Bidlin, who was still kind of like coming back from vacation mode, he's sort of like, "Hey, Gil, uh, I'm, I'm just, you know, I'm just sort of getting ready for tomorrow's show.
7:59
Have you looked at this Rocket Mortgage leaderboard? I mean, it is crazy." [laughs] And I'm just like, "Uh, uh, no, I haven't, Kelly, but yeah, wow, that's, that's pretty great." I, I, you know what?
8:09
I didn't wanna- Oh, my God... I didn't wanna address the baseball game yet because I knew, I actually didn't know it was in the delay. [laughs] It's like, "Wow, this is, what a leaderboard. You should real- Oh, my God."
8:19
So I'm just, I'm done laughing. DS, uh, Demersong Fashion Styles says, "What are you laughing?" I'm like, "No, you wouldn't understand. Never mind." [laughs] So by the way, um- I was thinking the worst possible for you.
8:29
I was like, "This is gonna g- they're gonna push it to tomorrow or something. I have no idea how the books handle that." Oh, no, it wouldn't count. Yeah.
8:35
And by the way, the Astros could not h- uh, could not have done that 'cause the m- because the Mets would have won on the first tiebreaker of fewest wins with the same amount of wins.
8:43
Fewest losses, pardon me, with the same amount of wins. That's the first tiebreaker at Circa. Okay, while this is happening, um, I, I'm so preoccupied, I forget the Giants game starts.
8:52
Giants go up one to nothing, then three to nothing, then four to nothing. It's nine to nothing by the end of the fourth. So the Giants are sloughing off the Dodgers two fours. They end up winning 10 to four, easy peasy.
9:01
Um, and then I'm thinking to myself, "God, if the, if the Astros don't win this, what a missed opportunity," because all the dead heaters left, with the exception of the Orioles. We can win outright at Circa.
9:12
We can dead heat with just the Orioles, uh, at William Hill Caesars. You're scared of the resumption of the game. You're even more scared of the lack of the resumption [laughs] of the game.
9:21
So finally, it resumes, two hours and 47 minutes. Astros go down one, two, three. Um, it's, it's not Bader. It's not Hader, by the way. It's Taylor Scott, and he does it.
9:32
Then the Astros go up five to four in the 10th, but opening a, a lead off double, RBI double for the Mets in the bottom of the 10th. It's five to five, nobody out man on second.
9:44
The in-game line is the Mets are minus 720, and somehow, somehow fate shined on us. J.D. Martinez strikes out, uh, after the intentional walk to Alonso. Harrison Bader grounds out, runners at second and third.
9:57
A wild pitcher, a balk will beat you. Dying, Mark Vientos grounds out. Sweet Lord Almighty, this might happen.
10:05
Top of the 11th, just like the Dodgers made the Giants pay for it l- uh, the day before in extra innings, then the Giants intentionally...
10:13
Excuse me, the, uh, the Mets intentionally walk Yordan, just like the Giants the day before started that horrible seven-inning barrage by intentionally walking Shohei.
10:20
Not saying they shouldn't have, but Yordan's on first. Runners at first and second. Diaz single, Meyer single, another single. It goes to bases loaded to six to five to eight to five.
10:29
Three batters later, RBI double from, uh, Trey Cabbage. 10, uh, uh, 10 to five. It's over.
10:36
Astros win by the same score, except for the fact that now that we've gotten through that chicanery, we beat the Mets, we beat the rain. Oh, no, now the Orioles have to lose. The game's already started.
10:47
Just like I forgot that the Giants game started, I was so wrapped up in this, that the Rangers game started. It's scoreless after the first. Should I hedge? Uh, I haven't hedged yet. I'm not a hedger.
10:57
I'm not gonna hedge. Then the, uh, the Rangers go up two to nothing, then two to one. Well, I should probably hedge here, right? Before I get a chance, the inning starts. The Rangers go up five to one.
11:06
I, by the way, when they're up one, two to one, I looked for a plus of one and a half on the Orioles so I could try to get both. Yeah, yeah. Didn't exist offshore. I was in California. [laughs] Didn't exist.
11:14
It was just a plus one, so I didn't do it. Good call. I would've looked the same, yeah. Then they go up five to two. The Orioles are plus $3. Um, I didn't do it then 'cause I hadn't done it at any point. Why should I?
11:25
Wyatt Langford started that three-run, uh, barrage with a triple. He later doubled in another three-run ba- barrage to make it eight to two. Then he hit a three-run homer. He hit for the cycle. Rangers cruised. We win.
11:37
Congratulations to all. I got my July play coming up later. Congrats. July, most wins. I'm doing it. I'm diving in again. It's a numbers game at least, at least sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com.
12:04
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. It's all there. All there at VSiN.
12:12
By the way, on the front page today, Zachary Cohen all over the place with his Wimbledon plays, women's and men's. Um, he's- Zach Cohen has just taken up all the real estate at vsin.com this morning- [laughs]...
12:23
on the front page. Come on, Zach, give somebody else a chance. There must be some writers on vacation too, Gil. [laughs] Wow. Uh, Steve Makinen is there with college football recruiting rankings.
12:31
Uh, Matt Humans, early look at college basketball futures. Adam Burke, as always, with great stuff. Um, Mike Somich, creating your own NFL power ratings for handicapping. Oh, that's good. I, I, yeah.
12:40
That's a nice one right there. Yeah, I started reading that, uh, I think last week a little bit. Yeah. It was a good little write-up by Mike Somich. Vsin.com, check it out. That's real good stuff.
12:47
Everything you could possibly want. By the way, the other big thing about, um, yesterday was I promised on Twitter, somebody asked me, "Will you reveal the name of the sushi restaurant if this happens?"
12:57
This was during the rain delay. When did you do this, by the way? This was on, this was on Twitter yesterday in the middle of the rain delay. Just on Twitter yesterday? Just on Twitter. Okay.
13:04
Sometime after you asked me if I was watching the Rocket Mortgage leaderboard, and I was like, "Yes, I will." W- he asked specifically, "Will you do it at Bet Bash?" And I said, "I will do it during Bet Bash week."
13:15
All right. "I'll do it." So I will reveal the name of the sushi place. Uh, people have been so, so kind on Twitter at Beating The Book. I am, I am, like, super humbled by it.
13:24
Um, Kelly and I have such a great time every morning. By the way, let me just say also that Kelly has made this just a blast for me on an everyday basis in a way that, uh, it never has been before.
13:35
Uh, but people are so nice. I'm just gonna read some. There's no way I can read all, 'cause there's hundreds of these.
13:40
Um, but JD Emmons, our buddy, uh, JD Emmons from Alabama, he says, "You're making such great calls on these monthly bets. Baseball is such a great sport, but the season is such a grind. Love these month-long bets.
13:51
No way you're not betting July, LOL." [laughs] There is no way I'm not betting it. Um, I will be revealing that here later in the show. PDPay1, "Uh, amazing show content.
14:02
Listen to yourself and Kelly on my everyday walks. Finally, a serious gambling show with advice and info, not just picks with no data to back them up. Keep up the good work." Thank you, sir.
14:14
Uh, that's very nice of you to say. Um, Michael at MikeKam4561, "Your monthly bets are quite the adventure. Great job. We've gotta get lucky eventually, and here we did. Thanks for taking along the ride.
14:25
I love all of your shows and podcasts." Thank you so much. Um, that is very nice of you. This is from GameTimeJones, "I have had zero action on any of your monthly bets.
14:35
I'm in California, but have had a rooting interest and find myself checking standings each time. Such fun bets to follow." Thank you. That is also really nice.
14:43
Uh, IY- AOYA, I don't know how to pronounce that, 69, "I have fully enjoyed the tracking of your pick skills since MLB had started. I have zero options in Washington State for most wins.
14:53
Your sweat is not only mine, but many listeners of, of a numbers game army. Looking forward to see what you pick for July." Um, we'll read through more of these. Uh, what more? Dale, DaleJMatecki, "Gil, thanks.
15:05
You're such a joy to listen to every morning. I have a much better understanding of the numbers 'cause of your show." How nice are people? Um, and I just wanna, I wanna shout out Dave Ross and Will Hill.
15:15
They were kind enough to have me on, um, a l- the lookahead last night, and they asked a few questions, and these are, these are, they were interesting questions.
15:26
I'll get to the, the last one, which I think is the most interesting from a gambling standpoint. But one of 'em was, Will was like, "What do you think you'll remember, like years from now, about this whole thing?"
15:34
I said, "I'll remember the loss, the one out loss in March, April more than I'll remember the win." The opposite, yeah. [laughs] Without question. And Dave, that's just how our brains work.
15:42
That's how bettors' minds work, yeah. 'Cause this ends up winning me more than May would've, but still less than March, April would've. Um, still a nice haul. Right. Yes, yeah. Um,
15:52
but then Dave also asked, "D- does this make up for it? Does the, do the gambling gods, are you now even with the gambling gods because of this?"
16:00
And I said, "We were at m- at m- at the Mets minus 720 in that extra inning. I get if the Astros are left for dead. Does it completely make up for it? No, but I'm super grateful that we got a W."
16:14
I also don't know, I, I, I don't remember what we dis- what, uh, what we discussed in, uh, May. No, it was April, May, and then June, right? Yeah. March, April. March, April. Then May and then June. May and June, yeah.
16:26
I don't remember what we discussed in May, but the Guardians early you were betting every day, right? Have you done that every, have you done that all three months? Not the first month.
16:34
I did it every m- every time with the Guardians in May. Yeah, I d- uh, towards the end of- Oh, Guardians in May, okay, okay... towards the end of March, April, I started betting them every day. Not at the very beginning.
16:43
Okay. But towards the end of March, April, then all of May, and then the Astros all of June. I mean, it's been an unbelievable baseball season. Yeah, so easy.
16:50
But, but you know, I said we, there was a world where we could have won all three, there was a world where we should have probably won two, there was also a world where we lost all three, right? Mm-hmm.
16:59
And so Will, Will asked the best question last night, I think.
17:03
Well, Dave's questions were great, too, but Will asked I think the most poignant one which is, "What did this, what's the lesson, what did this, what's the big takeaway from all of this?"
17:12
And I think that's the best question because for new gamblers or people who are new-ish to gambling, the process matters so much more than the result, and I know it's a win-loss results-oriented thing.
17:25
I'm not saying the result doesn't matter 'cause ul- ultimately the results are w- how you get graded on all of this, and it's, it's your bank account, it's your bottom line.
17:33
But from just a mental approach standpoint to it, if the pr- like, we could have easily packed it in after March, April and just been like, "That was the worst soul-crushing beat ever.
17:45
There's no way you can come back from that." But if your process, and whatever you does, m- we're just talking about monthly bets in baseball.
17:51
If yours happens to be golf, if yours happens to be football, if yours happens to be certain markets within those sports, if your process is good
17:59
Your ability to overcome negative variance, the degree to which you can do that in sports betting, is going to go longer than almost anything towards your ultimate success or not.
18:10
If you keep knocking at the door, right, the results will come. It's like a poker player. Skill can only take you to the f- you know, can get you to the finish line, but at the end you do need things to break your way.
18:23
And so I think that's the biggest lesson in all that, is that process ultimately is the most important thing here. And, um, again, to the extent you're able to overcome negative variance and just
18:35
eat those bad beats and recognize it's just a part of doing business, and you will have to develop scar tissue for it. I'm not suggesting that, that you get that the first time, right?
18:44
It's difficult even for the most veteran bettor. But I think that's, that's the biggest takeaway from all of it for me anyway. No, that was a good question. Now, what about that Rocket Mortgage leaderboard?
18:52
What was it that you wanted to, uh... [laughs] What's the thing really big to talk about today? It was just the...
18:59
It, it was all, all the guys yesterday scattered throughout it, or all the, all the, uh, dumbos that I bet all the time that never, never win, and they were all just trying to choke the, uh, choke the thing away to each other.
19:10
So explain, how did it go down? So Cameron Davis ends up winning. Good, good on him, I've bet him enough, uh, that's for sure. Do you bet him here? Uh, no I did not bet him.
19:17
No, I didn't bet g- I didn't bet golf at all last- You took a vacation vacation... I took, I took a week off golf, so it was, uh, it was a good mental reset. Oh, wow, you really took a vacation.
19:23
I believe Matt Brown had Davis Thompson, who did end up finishing T-2. Uh, Aaron Rai I probably would've bet. He finished T-2. There was [laughs]... I mean, like, he should've won it.
19:32
Akshay Bhatia, uh, what'd he have, three putt on 18 to lose the thing. Like, it should've at least gone to a playoff between Bhatia and Cam Davis.
19:39
Uh, he three putted on, uh, and bogeyed to lose the thing to Cam Davis, who was already in clubhouse. So yeah, Bhatia, Aaron Rai, Cam Davis, Guy... Cam- I mean, Cameron Young, oh boy.
19:51
I mean, this guy, we've, we've talked about the, him not having won yet, and all these second place finishes he's racked up. I mean, it was a T-10 yesterday.
19:59
He was four shots off the, or fi- uh, three shots off the lead. Uh, man, if you were watching that at all yesterday, though, he was, he was going nuclear out there.
20:07
Can you tr- Like, he was missing short putts and y- I think for the final six holes, he was just cussing himself out the entire time. Oh my God. Can you- Like, it, it was getting really ugly...
20:14
can you trust him ever to make a bet on him ever again?
20:18
Um, I never wanna say ever again, but you've, like, I think when you, when you see something like that yesterday, you gotta be like, "All right, I gotta back off this guy," at least from an outright perspective.
20:27
You gotta back off for a little bit and see them get their mind straight. It, it's, it depends golfer to golfer, right? Like, that something is that it, it, yesterday that I would read into.
20:37
What happened when we t- when we saw Xander come up just short of Scheffler early, you know, in the Masters, like, there was nothing, to me there was nothing with, with him that I was worried about going forward, 'cause we'd seen Schauffele, we've seen Schauffele lose things so closely so many times before that I'm like, "I don't really care about Schauffele, he's used to this."
20:55
It, but I, Cameron Young, the, it's gotten to him clearly. It, it, he is, it, it is problematic now. Didn't Bhatia, didn't Bhatia also admit that it, like, he got nervous? Like, the, the nerves got to him afterwards.
21:06
I didn't catch po- post, uh, post round stuff, but h- the stuff from last week he was talk- he did, he was talking about that last week, 'cause he was in the mix last week, but he was talking about how much he loves that.
21:15
Like, he feeds off the pressure, but he gets nervous and stuff like that, and then he three putts. This on the heels of Rory gacking away the US Open. Yeah. So that's just amazing to me.
21:28
And it's not, of course, it's not, you know, no one's trying to tackle you. You don't have to do, like, a, you know, lunge for a ball in tennis and be athletic. I mean, it's athletic to a point, right?
21:37
But you, it's literally you, a stick, and a ball. I, I mean, Ca- Cameron Davis hit the shot on, what was it, 17, I think is the par five. I, it was great. Went in the water.
21:48
Um, and that was one where I was, I didn't think he was gonna be able to recover. All these guys could- like, they couldn't make a shot, though. The, nobody could hit a shot yesterday.
21:56
[laughs] I mean, he wins at 18 under. I think it was, like, at the turn where everybody was like, "Hey, like, 21, 22 is probably gonna get home." And it's like, "Nope, nope, nope, nobody can make a putt." Geez. Nobody's.
22:07
Nobody, nobody could find a fairway. It was incredible. I saw not a second of it.
22:11
It, it, it's a good example, though, of when we talk, i- if you ever listen to Long Shots and we talk, we talk about win equity and some of these guys [laughs] that can go out there and actually win a golf tournament, now how valuable that is.
22:21
Yes. I, this is an example. I mean, Cam Davis, he's got two wins on the PGA Tour now. They've both come at this same tourney. Corey Conner, same thing.
22:29
Like, there are a couple of these guys, you talk about this with Aaron Rai still looking for that first one out of the PGA tour. I thought maybe Lee was gonna get his yesterday. He had his, his, he had his mistakes.
22:39
Bhatia's picked up a couple wins. I don't wanna put, uh, you know, knock him too much, but that was a bad 18 for him. It's Called Long Shots, golf podcast, best in the world. Wimbledon Futures next.
22:52
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24:03
Um, I lied everybody, let me just say that. I said we were gonna do, uh, Major League Baseball most wins in the month of July.
24:08
Uh, but Dallin Cuff is joining us from ESPN, and we're pumped about that, so we'll do the July picks, uh, coming up. Dallin here to talk with us about soccer courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
24:18
Dallin, good morning to you, sir. Always a pleasure to have you on. Well, it's great to be with you, and you do not want me talking baseball, 'cause I don't know a damn thing. Yeah. [laughs] Keep it on the pitch.
24:26
No, I will keep it on the pitch, but can I... Before we get to the pitch, uh, you, college basketball is still your wheelhouse, of course. I just want to ask you two questions.
24:34
One, was there a player in the draft where you're super-duper high on and you think a team really just got the best of the draft by drafting him? Well, honestly, Dalton Knecht going 17, guys, was just shocking to me.
24:49
So, uh, they got a guy that's the most refined offensive player in the game, uh, in c- in that draft right now, and come in and help them make shots, score at all three levels.
24:57
Defensively he's gotta get better, but he, he's an elite offensive player. And I think the, the futures market that the NBA is obsessed with hurt him. It, it's 23 and that, that, that dings him up.
25:06
But he's gonna be able to play for 10, 12 years in that league. And Devin Carter from Providence.
25:10
There's two guys that are older at Prov- But he's a 6'2" guard, 6'9" wing span, rebounds, defends, hit, you know, 40% of his threes on six attempts a game.
25:18
Um, those two guys, older guys that I thought were gonna go in the top 10, did not, and I think they will end up being very good pros, uh, with a weaker draft. N- maybe not all-stars, but very good pros for a long time.
25:28
The other college basketball question is, I have one future right now, Dallin, which is on Alabama, 18 to 1 to win it all next year. Should I add more, is my only question. Should you add more?
25:38
Bro, wait till the full rosters are, like, locked. Like, they're- [laughs] They can still move a little bit here. Oh, man. So, like, I, I would say this month, I guess, you're pretty much done.
25:46
When you hit about end of July, we're pretty much done. So you should be all right.
25:50
And this is basic- I wait till about August and I start calling coaches then to see, you know, how things bedded in, they've done their workouts in the summer, how things look.
25:57
'Cause right now th- there's just such a huge turnover.
26:00
I, I, I can tell you of teams that might be good, but really, until I start talking to the guys and you get them off the record and you get a better sense of where you're at, and then you get to September, you start to go to practice, then you actually have a better, real feel of what's happening.
26:11
'Cause there's just so much turnover now. It's, it, they're real flyers right now. All right, fair enough. Fair enough.
26:16
I have back channels with Alabama, but that's fair enough from a general, uh- Hey, g- uh, good luck to your Alabama play. Thank you. Don't leave poo-poo. I'm just saying I'm not doing it. Okay. I appreciate that.
26:24
All right, so we got two things going on. We got the Euros. We'll get to that momentarily. First, though, center stage tonight, Copa America, and specifically the United States of America.
26:33
Three scenarios for advancing, Dallin. You know them all. None of them appealing. They beat Uruguay tonight, they win the goal differential tiebreaker if Panama beats Bolivia.
26:42
Draw with Uruguay, hope Panama and Bolivia draw or Panama loses, or lose tonight against Uruguay, and then hope for lowly Bolivia to beat Panama and then win the goal differential tiebreaker.
26:53
What ha- happened here with the USA, and how do you think they'll do tonight?
26:58
Well, I mean, Tim Weah, that was, uh, a, a catastrophic mistake for a really talented young player that's gonna be a starter for our US team for, for years to come, and will be in the 2026 World Cup starting for that, our team likely, regardless of who the coach is.
27:10
Come back to that in a second. Um, 'cause he's that talented, but you can't pop a guy in the face in today's, e- even if, even if it's not even that aggressive. You can't do that in today's modern football.
27:18
It will be seen on VAR and you will get a red card, as he did. So he put his team by an eight ball. I do respect the way the guys bounced back.
27:24
I do think this team per- perpetually underachieves the talent they have relative to how they're set up and a coach that continues to put them in a system that he says they have to play, versus finding the best way to play for the players that he's been given.
27:37
We've never had all 11 outfield players, all, excuse me, our, all 10 outfield players playing in the top five leagues in Europe. We have that now. And these aren't just all guys on the roster.
27:45
A lot of these guys, I mean, Antonee Robinson was the player of the year for Fulham, a Premier League club. Pulisic had the year of his life at AC Milan. McKinney was great at, at Juventus. And I can keep going down.
27:54
These guys are integral parts of the clubs they are, play for, and we are not maximizing that talent. So that said, the red card is a problem. I'm not surprised this team is underperforming.
28:04
I hate to say this, but I thought the silver lining coming into this, I said it before, if they crap out, we need to have a coaching change, we need to have a vision change.
28:10
The problem is you have to trust US Soccer to actually make that decision.
28:13
And since Sunil Gulati is no longer the president there, that organization has been a train wreck, so I have no confidence in that, and I do not have any confidence in them winning tonight.
28:21
[laughs] I kind of felt that was coming, Dallin, [laughs] after that- There you go... strong words about, uh, Gregg Berhalter and, uh, and USA Soccer right there.
28:31
Um, all right, now I, I assume you think Panama gets the best of Bolivia as well on the other side today? Yeah, I don't think Panama f- Like, this is a massive opportunity for them, just a humongous opportunity.
28:42
I don't think they let this slip through their fingers. I mean, they got... They played well, guys, once they, you know, once they, once they were up a man especially.
28:48
I mean, they gave up a goal, they bounced back, and they looked more threatening late in that game, and that's not surprising up a man. Um, I don't think they let that slip. I don't see us going through.
28:55
Yeah, I don't think this is purely an emotional hedge, but when I look at the numbers, Uruguay plus 195 to win, and US plus 155. I think the, on the 300 mark of the draw is, like, plus 220 or so in most markets.
29:06
Like, for me to not play Ur- Uruguay here, and this is not purely just, like, some, an emotional hedge, they are the superior team with, yes, they have pretty much already advanced, they know that, but this team is trying to build into their form with a striker in Darwin Núñez, who's better with the Ur- Uruguay jersey on than he is with Liverpool, uh, needs to continue to play at a high level.
29:22
I think this team's cont- wants to show the world, essentially, that they can be the next, they can be the best team in this hemisphere, and this is a big tournament for them.
29:30
Um, so I think that they're gonna come out there and play.
29:33
You know, they may make some changes to their lineup, but they're gonna go out there and play, and they're a, an elite team that could win the whole competition, and they wanna show that.
29:38
And on US soil, I think they're trying to make a statement. Um, they're the better team here, and I think they're the better play. A- and I hope our...
29:44
I, I do hope in some regard I'm wrong, 'cause I would love, I love our young players and the guys on the field. I just don't think they are best set up to be successful.
29:51
And against this team in this situation with the eyes of the country on them, I, I'm not sure they're gonna be able to overcome it. Yeah. I am ready for soccer Twitter to lose their minds tonight.
30:01
That is, uh, that is an inevitability. Oh, it interrupted. It interrupted the other night. You saw that. I mean, that was, it was Berhalter out, was like, was just, it just- [laughs] It was crazy. Right away.
30:09
Just right away. Right away. I, I didn't know we had gotten to the point where all of our dudes were starting on top club teams in Europe. That is, uh- Yeah, that's a big deal.
30:18
They, we've come a long way in the past 20 years Maybe not everyone starting, but, but, but yeah, we've come a long way.
30:22
Not, maybe not everyone starting, but like I would say, I, if I go through the lineup the other night, it was pretty much nine of the 11 starting. You know, Matt Turner, the goalie, was more...
30:29
Well, he, his, his situation was precarious through the course of the year at Nottingham Forest. But, you know, Chris Richards at C- Crystal Palace, Premier League club, and you can just keep running through them.
30:36
Gio, Gio Reyna had an up and down season at Dortmund. He was one guy that wasn't starting consistently.
30:40
But there's, by and large, we got guys that are playing in the top five leagues, and we just have never had that before at this level.
30:46
All right, Dallin, let's go to Euro 2024 with the time we have remaining, just a few minutes. Uh, Spain, Germany in one quarterfinal established. England, Switzerland in the other. So the cream now rising finally.
30:57
We have a couple games today, a couple games tomorrow, a couple matches to, uh, determine the other quarterfinals. Today, any thoughts on Portugal and Slovenia and France and Belgium, which is the marquee matchup today?
31:11
Yeah. So with, with, with France and Belgium, guys, it's two of the most underperforming teams in the tournament.
31:15
Um, and France ending up finishing second, putting them on the, that left side of that bracket really changed up the equation in terms of who could win and what, what we anticipated happening here.
31:23
Um, Belgium is a, is a good value plus 350 here, because they still are a really talented team that has...
31:28
They do not tend to do well as the favorite, and the problem is they've been the favorite with this quote unquote Golden Generation in almost every game since 2014.
31:36
So this is a game where they are pretty significant underdogs. There's no pressure on them, no expectations. They got booed off the field in their last group game. Uh, and the value is, is play in Belgium.
31:46
I, I think you're probably gonna see an under game here, minus 140 on a lot of boards, so you're getting a lot of juice there. You could play the under and maybe, um, uh, maybe an under one and a half.
31:55
This could be a one-nil game, and then you get some value that way.
31:58
But, but, uh, it's, it's hard for me to, to just play France at essentially even money when I think that Belgium is such a value in such, in this situation.
32:04
The draw is a value as well given the quality of the opponent and the fact that they both underperformed.
32:09
It's a hard game to handicap given that both teams have just been so off of what we thought they may be, particularly France, honestly. And Lukaku still hasn't scored, right? Is that true? He- Still hasn't scored a goal?
32:19
I think he hasn't yet. He's put the ball across the line like five times- [laughs]... but they've been penalties and there's the VAR reviews and different things. So, like, they are creating chances.
32:27
And guys, Jeremy Doku, by the way, in fact, I haven't looked up the numbers of him to get an assist, that guy is freaking electric.
32:33
And anybody watches the Premier League, every time he has the ball with City, especially when they're playing Arsenal, my heart is in my throat. Like, he is phenomenal.
32:40
He had a great second game, really slow first game to start. He made the turnover that allowed them to get scored on in their own end.
32:45
But he's a really, really talented young player that dynamite on that wing and playing balls in.
32:49
I just think at some point they're gonna break the dam here, but France is so structured, so solid, and so tough, uh, to break down. You did ask the other game. Portugal, I think Portugal has a bounce back performance.
32:58
They were terrible against, against Georgia. Um, that was a really poor, poor showing to say the least.
33:03
Um, I think they win this game, and I think if you let, you could lay a goal and a half and, and get, and get some value in that, in, in that regard with this team that I think is gonna...
33:10
They're capable of, of really making a deep run here, and they took their foot off the gas, and that's a massive wake-up call against Georgia the other day. Dallin, a one-word answer, five seconds here.
33:19
Who wins the Euro 2024 tournament? Uh, Spain. Spain. All right. Dallin, a pleasure. Thank you so much, man. All right, guys. Be well. Dallin Cuff from ESPN.
33:32
College basketball analyst, but also loves the pitch, and, uh, kind enough of him to join us. We will do July most wins Major League Baseball next, I promise.
33:41
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at The D. That's Bar Canada for those listening in Spanish, The Barrage.
33:59
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Um, this Diane Parry, Naomi Osaka match, which we have the over 21 and a half games in, and Parry winning it outright as a $3 dog. Um, Osaka won the first set 6-1.
34:14
Parry came back and won the second set 6-1. So we are in that rare situation where we can have a three-setter that mathematically could still fall under 21 and a half. Yeah.
34:24
Still unlikely, but just the fact that it's a possibility. Parry was up a break to start the third set, and then she just gacked away a game with two double faults, I believe. So it's 1-1 now on serve in the third set.
34:37
Um, still a possibility we [laughs] we could lose or win both, believe it or not, on that. Yeah. And then you have a Dallin Cuff update. We had one other play he wanted to get in.
34:45
Yeah, unfortunately, we're still gonna be on the air if Osaka rips off five straight ga- uh, games here. That would be, uh, pretty bad for you. Oh, she ain't doing that, Gil. Why? 'Cause Diane Parry's gonna get it done.
34:54
[laughs] Let's go, Diane. Diane Parry. Uh, yeah, Dallin, uh, texted me afterward. He did say his favorite bet left in the tournament, um, is Austria at plus 750 to make the semis. Okay.
35:06
I believe that's a current number he's talking about. Um, says path is great now with how the bracket broke out. Um, wouldn't even mind a bet to make it to the finals. Well- And they will face Turkey tomorrow.
35:18
That's right, Turkey tomorrow, and then the winner of Romania and the Netherlands, the Dutch, Holland. Yeah, so that would be the quarters then, yeah, to get to the semis. Right.
35:28
And then they play, yeah, England, Switzerland winner there. Oh, did I get that wrong? No, no, you're good. No, you're good. I'm- Oh, you know, yeah, I'm, no, you're right. I'm wrong. They beat...
35:36
They, they would have to beat Turkey, right? T- t- we got it right. Turkey. We got it right. We got it right. We got it right. Turkey today. Yeah.
35:42
Then the winner, Romania, Netherlands, you would cash your bet if you made it to the semis, but where they would play England, uh, or Swiss. Correct. We got it right. Okay. Uh, so- We did soccer. We got soccer.
35:52
[laughs] Soccer done right, right here on The Numbers Game. All right, it's that time. Uh, after, uh, coming one out away from hitting the Guardians in March, April at 65 to 1.
36:02
After being two games shy of hitting them, the Guardians that is, at 16 to 1 in the most wins in May, and now on the heels of hitting the Astros most wins in the month of June at 17 to 1 at Circa, and then dead heating at 25 to 1 at William Hill Caesars, it is now the month of July Only three games today.
36:23
It is a month, uh, that, yes, has 31 days, but remember, has an All-Star break in the middle of it. So the first thing we do is look at the number of scheduled games for all teams. Now remember, last month...
36:36
Let's do this most scheduled... Let's do the scheduled games first, guys. Uh, last month, what happened with that is, uh, in the 30-day month of June, the Orioles had 29 games scheduled. 29 was the most.
36:49
And remember I said when the, uh, when the Astros got to them, the Orioles would have played 19 games in 20 days, and so maybe they caught them...
36:56
they would catch them at the right time, and in fact, I don't know if that was part of it, but they swept them, so that was huge for the Astros. The fewest games in the month of June was the Mets at 24.
37:07
Five fewer scheduled games than the Orioles. The Astros had the second fewest at 25, so that didn't s- that didn't dissuade me from playing the Astros despite that deficit in scheduled games.
37:18
Here's how it looks in the month of July. The Mets with an All-Star break still.
37:25
Besides the All-Star break, the Mets, who had the fewest games scheduled in June, they have a game scheduled in every non-All-Star break day that there is. What? 27 games. 27 games.
37:37
You'll see, uh, four teams have 26: Toronto, Atlanta, Washington, Colorado. Most have 25 in the month of June.
37:44
A whole bunch have 24, and then the Royals and Twins only have 23, and the Padres have the fewest, five fewer than the Mets, scheduled in the month of June.
37:54
The Padres only have 22 games scheduled in the month of June compared to the Mets' 27. So that's the first thing you should be aware of. And once again, in June, it's just a tool in your handicapping.
38:07
It should not ever be the end-all be-all, as a, as, as again, I played the Astros, who had the second fewest games last month with 25. All right, so I'm not letting it dissuade me this month either. Let us show...
38:22
Can we show the graphic? No, let's go to the one, guys, where it has the, uh, the numbers with the run differential and that schedule. If we could go to that next. What I then look for is, all right,
38:35
the collection of opponents that a team plays, that any given team is playing. What is, in fact, that collective run differential? And the team I landed on was this one. Bam. The Kansas City Royals.
38:53
The Kansas City Royals, look at this schedule.
38:57
They are playing teams respectively with minus 56, minus 142, minus 40, one plus number at 30, that's the Red Sox, then minus 162 again, minus 13, minus 30, minus 162 run differential teams.
39:13
So no surprise that the minus 162 represents six games against the White Sox. The minus 142 is three games against the Rockies. That's nine, nine of their 23 games. Was it 23 games?
39:27
Nine of their 23 games are against, collectively, the White Sox and the Rockies, the bottom feeders of Major League Baseball.
39:34
But they've also got a bunch of sneaky over-performers like the Rays and the Cardinals at minety...
39:41
uh, minus 56 and minus 40, whose records are far better than they ought to be based on PyThAG, and in the case of the Rays, PyThAG and sequencing both.
39:52
So the Royals really have the best of the schedule in the month of July. But that's not all. The Royals do a bunch of other things that are really good, including...
40:01
that are, that are not really obvious to the eye when you take in baseball on a day-to-day basis, but that's where advanced stats always help us out. And that is, they do really great as a defensive team.
40:12
They're really good on, on the, uh, base paths. There's a whole bunch of little things they do well.
40:17
And oh, by the way, when you do look at the overall Major League Baseball standings and you look at something as simple as run differential, well, you're familiar with teams like the Orioles and the Yankees that have north of 100, plus 100 run differentials, or the Guardians are right below that at plus 98.
40:34
Uh, the Phillies at plus 121, and the Dodgers at plus 119. But guess who's next? Guess who's next? That would be the Brewers and the Royals. So the Royals are right there as well.
40:49
They are a team that is every bit as good as their 47 and 39 record. They ought to be a tick even better than that. So this is a team that has sort of flown under the radar. They didn't have a good June.
41:03
No one's really thinking about them. And so now we can put up the, uh, the odds, guys, if you want to do that. These are their current numbers. Now, I got the Royals last night when I cashed my Circa bet on the Astros.
41:16
I got them at 17 to 1. Now, I moved it at Circa, so I apologize when I did that. But at Caesars, they're still 15 to 1. Uh, at Circa they're, uh, they're 10 to 1 here in Nevada. Again, I apologize for that.
41:31
But they are 15 to 1 at Caesars. The Kansas City Royals, who are... Well, it's... We're showing 17 to 1. Are they back to 17 to 1 at, at Circa? Nah, I checked these up last night. No, no, no.
41:41
You probably bet it afterward. I bet it at 17 to 1. Yeah, that's what I got. So it's 10 to 1 now. But 15 to 1 at Caesars. So the short shots in this market remain some of the usual suspects.
41:52
The Orioles, the Mets, again, with the most games and a fairly easy schedule coming up in this month. The Guardians, once again, are in there as always. The Braves are at 10 to 1. The Dodgers are at 11 to 1.
42:04
Uh, even the Astros, um, at least last night, were shorter than the Royals, as were, um, [lip smacks] I don't know, the Brewers and the Mariners and the Cardinals were just a tick longer than the Royals.
42:14
So that's the play for the month of July.
42:16
The Kansas City Royals, who I have at 17 to 1, as opposed to last month where I bet one- Uh, two times the amount at Caesars and, uh, so one unit, if you will, at Circa, and then two units at Caesars William Hill.
42:32
I bet all three units this time at Circa. Uh, part of that thinking is this. Now, last week there was a big discrepancy between the numbers on the Astros.
42:42
The twenty-five to one was at Cer- was at William Hill Caesars, and it was seventeen to one- Right, yeah... at Circa.
42:49
So I ended up playing twice the amount at William Hill Caesars, and that part was the one that got dead heated. Here, the Circa number was actually a tick better.
43:00
It was seventeen to one versus sixteen to one at the time.
43:03
Um, and so for me, the rules of Circa were the deciding factor in why I placed all of it at Circa, which is again, what it has been for all three months before this. Circa has a tiebreaker.
43:17
Fewest losses is number one, best run differential is number two. William Hill Caesars dead heats everything.
43:24
When you play a team, and this is where the scheduled number of games is sort of a contrarian thinking on this, 'cause most people will look at this and they'll immediately go, "Well, the team that plays the most games has the most opportunity to win games, and so you gotta look at those teams.
43:37
You gotta gravitate towards the teams that have the most scheduled games." I look at it a little m- more contrarian. This is what I did last month as well.
43:45
The odds difference still didn't make me put most of it at Circa, but in this case, I put all of it at Circa because the numbers were actually almost equal, even Circa was a tick better.
43:56
And the reason is, is because I'm playing a team with fewer games. Like the Astros last month, I'm playing the R- the Royals who have the second fewest games in the month of July.
44:04
And when you have, on the fewer side of games, you want the tiebreaker of fewest losses. Because if you can just keep up with folks in the win column, you will automatically win the tiebreaker- Yeah...
44:20
just by virtue of the fact that you're playing fewer games. So you, you've gotta still play good baseball. That, that's a great call. Right? Gotta still play good baseball.
44:27
But inherent in that, built in, you're going to win the tiebreaker, which we did with the Astros. There it is, Kansas City Royals, your most wins in July pick from a numbers game. We'll come back, we'll wrap things up.
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