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Jul 1, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 1, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 1, 2025
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33:41
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It's my little buddy Kelly Biddle, and everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Hey, yo, how we doing? What's happening? Not much. Not much. Hmm.
0:27
I, I'll tell you what's hap- I'll tell you how I'm doing. I'll answer this question literally at face value, as opposed to being like, "I'm great. How are you?" Um, slow start to Wimbledon. It's grass. One day.
0:37
And it's- Two days... it's one of, yeah, well it's, it's, it's early. It's one of these things though where in tennis there are so many matches, right?
0:45
Year wi- year long, let alone day to day in a tournament like this in the first round, it's a million matches, right? It's not really a million, but you get the idea.
0:53
Um, and what you i- inevitably, inevitably do is you have edges on a bunch of matches, but you say to yourself, "Self, I can't play every single edge." Sure, yes. Yes. "Let me pick these matches to play." Yeah.
1:05
[laughs] All right, guess who I had a lean on this morning? Cocciaretto. Did I have the onions to play it? No, against Bogolev, of course not.
1:12
The one that I did have the onions to play was yesterday, Talia Gibson against Osaka. That doesn't get home. Um, there were two matches yesterday, Sasnovich, Siegemund, edges to play, leans to play.
1:21
Don't play them, they get home. The ones you play don't. It, so there's a lot of that going on. So I'm not in the, I'm not in the greatest mood, let's put it that way. Right. Every, we all know this. Yeah.
1:30
Everybody's like 78% lifetime on their leans, like it just happens. Todd Wishnev is 97.8%. [laughs] He's also- It's incredible how it happens... Todd, Todd is 99.4% when he says it out loud and doesn't bet it himself.
1:44
[laughs] Oh, that's rough. It's really, it's amazing. That's rough. The kid is incredible on those. Oh, man. You think, you think I exaggerate those. My God. Uh, on the show today, Mark Borcherd talk baseball with us.
1:55
Gotta get Borcherd in for a Q2 tennis podcast. Baseball. Excuse me, a baseball podcast, pardon me. I got tennis picks too I gotta get out here. MLB divisions, done or not done yet.
2:05
And then a little later on, uh, just to pull back the curtain here, here's what happens on the show.
2:09
Kelly, uh, usually gives me some homework on the show beforehand on certain segments, like, "Hey, let's, uh, let's do certain MLB teams.
2:17
There are markets to 70-plus wins, then certain teams there's markets to 100-plus wins."
2:23
It's a little bit labor intensive, so we'll go through that, uh, a little later on the show, but some of these, uh, some of these exercises don't really result in great bets. We'll see if this does.
2:32
Last time we did it, it did not, except for a few that I sort of said maybe. Yep. We'll see if there's any maybes in that.
2:39
I also threw the ones at FanDuel, where I caught the, I caught this morning that actually DraftKings has some posted too, so maybe we can compare odds- Which ones?... some numbers. Oh. Oh, oh, oh. Yeah, yeah.
2:49
I see what you're saying. That thing you sent me yesterday, I think we should revisit at some point. Okay.
2:55
The, uh, what, what, what I'm referring- It was like, uh- What I'm referring to is FanDuel has a market- This is awesome...
3:02
la- yeah, last team to get shut out after a certain date, which we just noticed, so we don't have FanDuel here. So I, I'm gonna guess they weren't doing it all season, because I feel like I would've noticed it earlier.
3:13
The one I sent you, like you've noticed it s- started [laughs] starting on- It said June 15th... June 15th. I don't know why that date. So, so did we miss it when it c- did it come out on June 15th and we missed it?
3:23
I guess. Okay. So g- I mean, that would be an interesting one to track at the beginning, uh, moving forward. It's a great market idea, though. Oh, and tha- and that would be a hell of a handicap too, to- Yeah...
3:31
try to figure that out with pitching rotations and opponents and all that.
3:34
Anyway, we'll do, uh, so 70 wins and 100 wins for certain ball clubs, and then Drew Dinsick will join us, talk, uh, grass tennis at Wimbledon and anything else that he is betting.
3:42
Let's start his National Football League bets, what off-season bets has he made, and what rando sports can he offer us. Tour de France, has that happened yet? No? No, that's usually like in a couple weeks, right? Yeah.
3:54
Tour de France. So we'll get his thoughts on that, uh, get his thoughts on that report. He's ready to go on that, you know that.
3:58
By the way, in case you missed it, I, um, I just now was on with, uh, Jensen and Dave, Dave Ross, David Lee Ross, by the way, believe his full name, David Lee Ross and Jensen Lewis, on By the Books right before this broadcast.
4:11
I have three tennis plays left today, uh, that have yet to start, in other words.
4:16
Anna Blinkova I just mentioned, plus 133, that's a fate of Maria Sakkari, and on the men's side I'm on David Goffin, a veteran Belgian player, plus 142, love him on grass, in this matchup.
4:28
And then Alex Bolt is the long shot of the day, three to one against the American Ben Shelton. Alex Bolt, one of these, uh, rare players who we have over 100 matches of grass data to, uh, support his play.
4:39
A lot of qualies over the years in addition to actual, uh, match play in tournaments, live tournament play. So, um, Blinkova, Goffin, and Bolt. Currently trying to, uh, get Siniakova home as a dog.
4:52
She is in a third set now with Zheng Qinwen, the fifth seed in this tournament. Yeah, I was watching a bit of that one earlier, uh, rooting you on, and, uh, man, yeah, it was, it, it was great yesterday.
5:01
The first few days of Wimbledon are awesome. Yeah. It was. I mean, I got, I needed some sleep. I got a quality nap in after- Oh... I forgot to send you the rundown yesterday. Uh- Yeah, nice job, man...
5:10
had some tennis on. Mm-hmm. Uh, was watching, uh, the Taylor, Joe Salero Fritz match. Yeah. And, uh, very confused at the ending of that, but the, the, what, it got postponed till today?
5:20
Yeah, so the fifth, uh, d- Dave, and I would say this, Dave Ross made a great point beforehand in case those who missed it.
5:26
The Taylor Fritz, Giovanni M- Mihaiku Perec card match, you know Giovanni- Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah... Mihaiku Perec. Of course, yeah. Um, great server, serve bot, even- Good guy... in h- great on grass- Maybe...
5:35
with the serve especially. They're going to a fifth set. Uh, Mihaiku Perec card won the first two sets.
5:41
Taylor came back, won the next two, and Taylor, like, I think he, he had, he staved off some match points if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, yep.
5:49
Or, or at least he was down s- I think he was down 5-1 in the, in the, in one of the breakers there, and he came back to win it.
5:55
And then because there is a, there's, there's a code ordinance with clothing, gotta, gotta wear white. Oh, I forgot about this. And then there's a noise ordinance at Wimbledon. Forgot about the noise ordinance.
6:06
Yeah, so part of the deal that they made is we're gonna build these two stadiums here But you still have to abide by the noise ordinance.
6:13
So at certain times, there was like 40 minutes before the, you know, the curfew if you will. And so they went to the players, they basically went to the players and, "Hey, do you wanna continue this or not?"
6:24
And they both have to agree on playing. And apparently Mladenovic Parikard didn't want to, which was smart of him 'cause he's like, "I don't have any of the momentum right now." Right.
6:30
"Let's play, let's play fifth tomorrow." And then Taylor Fritz got upset 'cause they, you know, they sort of asked him, and it didn't matter what his answer was. [laughs] Right.
6:39
So he's like, "Well, why are you asking me?" [laughs] So great, great response by Taylor too. Oh, man. Yeah, way to go Giovanni. Uh, live in that match 'cause it has not started, uh, yet, that fifth and final set.
6:50
Fritz minus 275, Parichard plus 200. You, I, you have- Parichard? Parichard? I say Parikard. I don't remember. Parikard. Yeah. I, I, to me, I would play him or nothing. Parikard or nothing. An excellent set.
7:00
Let's do Parikard. Yeah. You get to a, that, that's, that is likely to get to a tiebreaker. Likely to get to a tiebreaker. So maybe you play that as well.
7:09
Um, can I just do, can we do, 'cause, uh, we're gonna do a Q2, I was mentioning a baseball podcast. Mm-hmm. Q2 baseball podcast. Can I just mention the, uh, the current first five standings in Major League Baseball?
7:21
Fire away. 'Cause, 'cause like we always like to see if our, uh, if our White Sox thing is in play. Remember, I don't know if you guys know this, Chicago White Sox not really great at baseball.
7:30
Um, Chicago White Sox right now, although it's not nearly as bad as it was last year, let's, let's, uh, let's make that distinction.
7:37
But the Chicago White Sox nonetheless this year, um, in the standings dead last in the American League Central, uh, 28 and 56, that's the worst record in the American League, and the only team in Major League Baseball that's worse than that is the Colorado Rockies.
7:53
Um, so on a full game money line basis, and we'll get into a bunch of baseball here later as I mentioned.
7:59
So on a full game money line basis, right, if you play the Chicago White Sox every single day, whether a favorite or a dog, and usually they're the dog, you'd be, you'd have, you'd be hemorrhaging money.
8:10
You'd be down 10 units, right? It's the fifth, the fifth least profitable team in, in baseball, right?
8:16
Only the Orioles, Twins, Braves, and Rockies themselves would've cost you more money if you played this bizarro exercise of playing the White Sox each and every game.
8:24
But as we talked about last year, the thing with the White Sox is the first five bets are almost the exact opposite because they're actually competitive in the first five.
8:36
They're often, not often, but almost always a dog in those, and so they end up being one of the most profitable first five teams. It's starting in the sixth inning in the bullpens that things go awry.
8:46
Well, Kelly, here we are a year and a half into this now. Number one first five team in all of baseball. If, again, if you bet this team as a dog or, or favorite every single game. Detroit Tigers, no surprise.
8:58
Number two, Milwaukee Brewers, not really surprised. Maybe a little bit, but not really. Uh, Philly's third. Great starting pitching, right? Guess who's fourth? Chicago White Sox. Are you serious?
9:08
[laughs] At 28, 33, and 17 you'd be up five units. [laughs] That's incredible. And then now keep in mind, there's not a bunch of profitable first five teams.
9:20
Really if, if you're talking about above two units, there's only six of them, and the White Sox are one of them. So anyway, just a little, little quirk. Only six of them above two units? Yeah.
9:30
There's a, there's only, what is it? B- b- b- b- b- there's only... Yeah, because there's, there's five teams that are profitable, but it's less than two units. Cubs, Rangers, Reds, Angels, and Royals.
9:41
Huh, that's interesting. Okay. Yeah. Anyway, just a little baseball, uh, things. This is stuff we do on the Q2 podcast, which will be hopefully later this week.
9:49
Anything in the NBA that, that moved your needle yesterday trade-wise? Man, it was a lot more active than I thought it was gonna be. Yeah. Um, I, I don't know, I shouldn't say that.
9:56
I feel, I [laughs] feel like I could say that every t- every day after the day one of free agency. Um, man, it's an arms race out west. It is. I, I thought there were a lot of interesting moves yesterday.
10:08
Um, I'll start D- Denver, Houston. I mean, Houston just keeps firing away. Dorian Finney-Smith they bring in. I mean, really rounding out that roster.
10:18
Uh, I mean, gosh, they get, they grabbed C- Clint Capela's heading back to Houston, like he's gonna be third on the depth chart. [laughs] For I, there's like other teams out there that could use him.
10:26
I, that one kinda confused me, but man, I think he thinks he's signing up on a pretty loaded team, and that's what they're turning into. I thought the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr.-Cam J- Cam Johnson trade was genius.
10:37
I, I, I think it's, it's what we've come to expect a little bit out of this Denver organization, but I think when you were watching that team during the playoffs push the Thunder to seven, and there was probably a lot of people like me saying, saying to themselves, "Man, if this team just had a little bit more of what it had a couple years ago, they are right there, uh, with Nikola Jokic on that roster."
10:58
And you bring back, bring back Bruce Brown for basically nothing after he bounced all around the NBA last year.
11:04
Bring him back for almost nothing to put in that back court, and then you got off of Michael Porter Jr.'s contract, which is the biggest thing here.
11:11
'Cause if you wanna look at offensive numbers, they're pretty, pretty comparable to Cameron Johnson. Uh, you're shoot, both shooting arou- l- right around 39, 40% from three, both great three point shooters.
11:21
Cameron Johnson adds a little bit more defense though than what Michael Porter Jr. brought to the table, and you're gonna save over $40 million the next two years. So I thought it was a great br- great move by Denver.
11:31
Denver and Houston really loading up. You, you believe that the Rockets are justified as the second favorite behind the Thunder? I think after yesterday, yes. Wow, okay. Uh, let's talk some baseball.
11:42
Which divisions are done, which are not? We'll look into that and more. Let's go City Hall, get it done. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa. Gil, Kelly. Kelly fighting with a, uh, app.
12:07
Here to make a bet. Man, thank you MGM. And no thank you to someone else [laughs] Actually done. You ain't stealing $20 from me again, Caesars, to go down there and park. [laughs] I ain't doing it.
12:18
[laughs] What did they just give you on a, on a minus two- $55... on a minus 220 favorite. On a minus 220 Yankees to win division favorite. They gave you 55 United States dollars? $55, yep. Wow, good stuff.
12:29
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Real uniform czar just added the Cubs 22 to one on DK most wins July. They're seven to one on Caesars.
12:37
Don't love 15 road games, but they should be the favorite in most of those games. Also took a flyer on the Orioles at 60 to one, he says, and the Braves at 22 to one. They can't continue to be this bad, right?
12:48
Probably not. The, the Cubs was the team I forgot to bring up, that that was when I was mentioning the movement- I looked at them... like oh my gosh- Yeah... did they really shorten up too.
12:56
I looked at the Cubbies as well. Uh, this is from Brian M.: "I watched the end of By The Book, Gil's sitting in the correct seat. I go to a meeting, come back, and now all of a sudden he's in the wrong seat again."
13:06
There you go. Still pe- people still upset about that. Never gonna get over this. [laughs] So it's been almost a year. We gotta start getting over it, guys.
13:12
Uh, Ed Fang, the power rank our buddy, says, "Grateful for the winner from Gil on Katarina Siniakova over Zhang Shuai at Wimbledon." Uh- There you go... part of a five nugget Saturday.
13:21
It was in the, I guess it was in his newsletter. Uh, he's kind about the tennis. He says, "If you're not following me for tennis, you're not doing it right." That's very nice of you.
13:27
But, um, it's been a choppy Open to Wimbledon. I can't really say that it's been awesome. I mean, that was a good win, no question this morning, uh, on Siniakova, which is a holdover from yesterday.
13:38
But for every win there appears to be a loss, so we'll see. We'll see if that turns again. Uh, still to come, Goffin on the men's side and, um, Bolt on the men's side as well, tennis-wise. Um, okay.
13:54
Can I tell, since we, we... I, I didn't expect to have the, the Bobby Bonilla day thing last throughout the show, but I have a fantastic Bobby Bonilla story.
14:01
I think, I think another reason why, why I kind of enjoy it, Gil, is 'cause it sneaks up on me every year. Like I don't, like I don't- Me too... like I never remember it's July 1st. But, but we always get reminded.
14:12
Right, right. But we always get reminded. Um, Joe Peta, our buddy Joe Peta- Yeah... who's a frequent guest on the show, friend, uh, Joe Peta used to work for Mets owner Steve Cohen.
14:25
Uh, so first of all he points out, he goes, "Unlike the deferrals for Scherzer and Ohtani, uh, which benefit the team," he says, "The Bonilla deferral was pure idiocy back on the day on behalf of the Wilpons," the o- the owners.
14:36
That was also, he goes, "C. Bernie Madoff, as you almost certainly know." Yes, the Wilpons- [laughs]... thought they were gonna have money forever. Yeah.
14:43
You know, with this, with this Bernie Madoff, uh, genius- [laughs]... that was making them all this money. That was making them so much money. So like, what do we care if we defer this contract all these years?
14:52
But Joe, a friend of a friend of the program, of course friend in real life, but Joe says he wor- when he worked for Steve Cohen, uh, he was in the, uh, the planning inner circle of the Mets purchase when Steve Cohen bought the, bought the New York Mets.
15:05
Joe took the opportunity to suggest to Steve Cohen that each Bobby Bonilla day, 'cause obviously Cohen would be on the hook for this as well, uh, that the Mets should turn an embarrassment into a marketing opportunity by giving a random fan the exact same $1.19 million check that Bonilla gets every July 1st until 2035.
15:28
He suggested this to Steve Cohen. He's like, "Look, let's, this is an embarrassment to the organization. It's 1.19 million a year. Let's turn this into this great..."
15:37
Like instead of a bobblehead day- Right, right, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah... give a fan $1.19 million.
15:41
I, I will, I will give them some credit 'cause I think they've kind of embraced the hilariousness of it a bit, but like this Joe idea, I mean, the Peta idea, is just a genius marketing idea.
15:50
Well, Steve Cohen looked at Joe and said, quote, "You want me to give away $1.19 million every year to a random fan?" Long awkward pause, "You're an idiot." [laughs] It didn't need to be 1.1.
16:05
Like, it could've been $1,100, right? Like you, you could've taken away a comma or something. By the way, for the record, Joe still feels like it's a great idea, and I think he's right. I'm, I'm with him.
16:16
I w- I, I don't know if I, if I was Steve Cohen- Can you imagine?... I'd be signing off on that much money either, but you could've done it like, you could've done a quarter of it or something like that.
16:24
I just talked about, I just talked about going to the Giants-Dodgers game in 10 days, two hours earlier for a bu- for a Barry Bonds bobblehead. [laughs] Just get a bobblehead. Yeah.
16:32
Imagine what you- That you get on Amazon right now. Yeah, exactly. [laughs] That's a great story j- from Joe. You're an idiot. [laughs] Welcome to the Mets. Um, okay. Oh, God. NFC East.
16:43
Uh, obviously the NFL betting guide is out today. I don't think we've mentioned that, uh, four times yet today, but, uh, this- Today. Now... let this, let this be the fourth.
16:50
Uh, the NFL betting guide is out, and again, Zach Cohen and crew, Adam Burke and crew did such a great job on this.
16:56
And every VSiN host is represented, um, with their picks, divisions, conferences, who's in the Super Bowl. And not only that, every VSiN host has put in their favorite season-long prop bets or awards, whatever.
17:10
That was left up to them.
17:11
Uh, the NFL g- betting guide pro edition, our pro guide includes previews of all 32 teams, best bets from VSiN hosts, player props and projections, football special by the way, $175 VSiN Pro access through the Super Bowl.
17:21
Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe.
17:24
So we talked a little bit about the AFC East yesterday, how the Bills of all teams in the NFL and all eight divisions are probably the lockiest of the locks to win their respective division.
17:36
I'm gonna go ahead and say that the NFC East, you ready for this? One, two, three, four, I'm feeling way confident, and I know a lot of people aren't, but I'm feeling way confident one, two, three, four in the NFC East.
17:49
Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, Giants. Sorry, Dave Ross, still got the Commanders ahead of your, ahead of your, uh, Cowboys.
17:57
And I think, I think, listen, a lot of the off-season narrative about Washington is justified, right? Uh, Washington won Nine one, talking about regular season and post-season, um, they won nine one-possession games.
18:13
They were nine and four, though, in one-possession games. People tend to forget they also lost four- Yeah... one-possession games, which I think is a... It's interesting what the brain does, right?
18:23
You have a rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Some of the wins were so dramatic that they are emblazoned, right, in a way that other games last season...
18:31
I think some Jayden Daniels stuff is more memorable than even the Super Bowl was, right?
18:35
The Hail Miriam, of course, against the Chicago Bears, the dramatic win against the Eagles, the amazing Thursday night performance against the Bengals. What folks tend to forget is some of those four close losses, right?
18:46
Pittsburgh leaps to mind for me, where Zach Ertz was an inch away from a, from a first down and a, and a g- game was winning field goal at that point. Potential game-winning field goal chip shot.
18:57
So they were nine and four. By the way, in one-possession games, the Eagles were nine and two. They won their fair share, [laughs] nine one-possession games.
19:07
But people don't process it the same way with the Eagles because it's viewed as much more sustainable than Washington, and I agree with that, by the way. I still think the Eagles are the cream of that division.
19:16
Their defense is leaps and bounds better than Washington's is. Washington addressed a lot of things, but defensively they still have holes. Um, so I definitely think they're second to the Eagles. I'm not that crazy.
19:28
Um, and we're still tush pushing, right? That's how we s- we settled that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're still tush pushing. That's still a thing. I just don't think the Cowboys can be...
19:35
It c- could the Cowboys, by the way, win totals 11 and a half for the Eagles, Washington's nine and a half, Cowboys are eight and a half, Giants are five and a half.
19:42
I think the Giants are a distant fourth, let's put it that way. I don't... If they don't win that October 5th game against the Saints, Kelly, good God, they may not win a game for a while.
19:54
Um, so I think the only question really to me is two, three, and I'd still give Washington the edge over Dallas. I think the, the one-score wins is... I'm glad you brought that up, 'cause I think it, it is the...
20:06
I, I keep going b- I keep thinking about the, the tweet we got about kind of the sche- schedules notes for win totals and everything. Yeah. And it's...
20:12
I, I think a lot of this can be tur- turned to say, hey, we talk a lot of the NFL during the summer, right? And that futures bets and divisions and all this stuff that we're, that we're projecting.
20:20
I think, I think that's something, 'cause what was it? The Vikings the year before, right, that had the, the great re- r- uh, one-score record, uh, at, at the end of 2024, um, or 2023.
20:30
I know where you're going with this. Like, I think we, we end up overvaluing too much that that's gonna come ba- you know, that we're gonna... that's gonna average out the next season.
20:39
And when rosters aren't always the same, this isn't three-point shooting in the course of an NBA game, right? Right. Where one singular game, nothing's really changed.
20:46
Rosters move, rosters change around, coaching staffs change. I, like, I'm not saying it's repeatable, but we shouldn't automatically think it's gonna go the other way- That's correct...
20:55
and just mark up another win or loss- 100%... for the Commanders. That just- Hundred percent, and I, and I... The point I was trying to make is- Random tangent there, but [laughs] No, no, no. It's a great tangent.
21:03
It's a great tangent. I, I also think it's interesting, and the point I was trying to make is what your brain retains. Yes. Yeah.
21:09
For some reason, the only thing that people retain of Washington's nine and four and Philly's nine and two is, "Oh, Washington won a lot of one-score games really dramatically." Yeah, they also lost a bunch of them, too.
21:20
Mm-hmm. Right? So I mean, y- in every w- any which way you break that down, what you're saying is correct. Um, so yeah, it just, that was a little bit of tangent there. You and I are both under, under on the Giants wins.
21:30
Yes. Completely with you that I think there is...
21:33
I'm pretty confident Eagles win this division, which is, I think, a little weird hearing me say out loud [laughs] a little bit, Gil, 'cause I, I actually am fairly high on all three NFC East teams not named the New York Giants, that hence the part of the reason why the under play on the Giants win total.
21:49
Um, the other bet I did make, I was considering, I'm not as strong as you on the two-three order. I think you should b- bet one of those exactas, though. Check out- Yeah... the way, a one, two, three, four exacta- Yep...
21:59
in the division. Sure should. Um, I'm not as confident Commanders, Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are being slept on a little bit from e- from most people not named ESPN, [laughs] obviously. Yes.
22:09
[laughs] Um, [laughs] the one b- one bet I made on the Cowboys, so I took away the win total. I was looking over the win total. These props have started to, to pop up at some shops.
22:18
Caesars, I bet over their total points scored for the season. So basically, I'm betting on the offense being good without, with throwing out how the defense is gonna perform. And you got more than 55 bucks on that.
22:28
Yes, I did. Okay. Cool. Did have to drive there, though. Uh, a special numbers game investigation reveals that the Tour de France is this weekend. Saturday. If only we had an expert on named Drew Dinsick after the break.
22:39
Oh, we do. That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circus, Gil Alexander.
22:53
We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, uh, GV, New Jersey, New York, regarding Kelly's one-score game rant. I was at Ohio State for Urban Meyer's first year when they were bowl banned, but went 12 and 0.
23:04
They went 6 and 0 in one-score games, and a lot of people talked that off-season about that being unsustainable. Ohio State's response was to score 40 plus each week. [laughs] You're right. That's a good plan.
23:14
You're right. It was completely unsustainable in the other direction.
23:17
Jesse Welch, "This new cell phone commercial with Zoe Saldana where she's offering to dig through her purse to give the guy random junk is ridiculous." Yeah, but it's Zoe Saldana, you know what I mean?
23:26
Yeah, I wasn't complaining. No. It was, uh, I feel like it was during a sporting event, like March Madness or something. I was like, "Yeah, she's on, like, three different commercials all of a sudden."
23:33
Oh, she is milking it. Don't, I don't have a problem with it. I don't either. Marcus Ferdinand, "I sprinkled on the Jays. Most wins, uh, in July. Thanks to you guys. Great show."
23:41
Well, we don't, we're not on the Jays, but I did mention that it was a team, uh, that I considered. And then lots of, uh, lots of Bobby Bonilla stories still coming, uh, through from everybody.
23:50
Uh, James Fessler, "Pagula losing the same day as the NFL guide comes out. A coincidence? I think not. Sure hope she's okay reading it on the way home while planning the Bills Super Bowl after party."
23:59
[laughs] You think we can get her a free one? We gotta get her a free one. I think she can fork it over. Okay. All right. Uh, Drew Dinsick kind enough to join us for a second segment.
24:07
I wanna get to NBA free agency because we just have a major move in the NBA. But real quick- Mm-hmm... let's just take a minute on this, 'cause the Tour, Tour de France, is this weekend.
24:16
Just reiterate your plays again, sir. Um, yeah, so the, uh, the major market in this one is, uh, yellow jersey, which is your outright winner.
24:26
It is a cumulative time over three weeks, 21 stages, and the favorite is, is Slovenian, uh, cyclist Tadej Pogačar. Uh, Pogačar remains the greatest cyclist on Earth.
24:41
Um, and his kind of warm-up numbers that he put, put, uh, put out at the Dauphine from a power standpoint were eye-popping. Um, he is almost certainly going to win this Tour de France.
24:53
I would put his probability in the 80 to 85% range. Um, I was looking all spring and early summer for reasons to believe that Jonas Vingegaard was gonna be able to put up a challenge this year.
25:03
He's got a better team or a deeper team, uh, on paper. Um, but, uh, it does not look like he has narrowed the gap at all, even being a little bit healthier in this, uh, prep cycle.
25:13
So Pogačar, likely winner, uh, as the, as the depart, the Grand Depart, uh, coming up this weekend. Um, timing-wise, we're not gonna...
25:23
You're not gonna really see major separation between the top two until, like, week two.
25:27
So, uh, definitely worth kinda keeping an eye on prices to see if there's, you know, if, if Vingegaard and, and, uh, and his team, uh, make some noise in, like, the Pyrenees before they get to the Alps, and Pogačar's saving it for week three, then you might be able to, to get in at a little bit better price, uh, down the road.
25:44
But, uh, Slovenian's winning his fourth yellow jersey. His maillot jaune. That's just a- What, what else do you look to bet in Tour de France, Drew? Like, is it, is it s- stage by stage for you? Are there match-ups?
25:56
Is it over/under times in stages? Like, how, how does it work? Uh, stage by stage betting is a thing, but it is full on throwing darts. Yeah.
26:07
Um, you don't really ever know what team's strategy is going to be in terms of who they're sending, right?
26:13
Like, there'll be a breakaway on every given day, and, uh, and, and unless you are kind of in the team meeting and you know who's going in the break and why, um, you know, you're never really gonna have, uh, the inside, n- you know, the insight to pick those off.
26:28
Um, there w- If you are following closely with, uh, some of the news outlets in Europe, you will get word where a guy will do a press the day before and be like, "We are g- We're gonna win this stage tomorrow.
26:38
Like, we're gonna do it." Um, and, you know, there, there'll, there'll be, like, nuggets that, that slide across the newsfeed like that.
26:45
Um, but, uh, when you're betting stage by stage, you're really just expectation stage by stage. You wanna know what is the, uh, what is the s- what is the style of today's stage. Is it a hilly stage? Is it flat?
26:55
Is it a mountainous climb? Uh, is it a, is it a, a mountain stage where you're finishing at the top or are you... Is there a real c- like, a technical descent at the end, right?
27:06
Like, those are sort of the factors that are gonna inform what, uh, what you would look to bet on a given stage.
27:11
And most of the stage winners that are sprint stages, there's, like, five guys who could realistically win any sprint stage just because it's such a, such a curated skill.
27:19
Um, and, uh, I'll definitely bet into the green jersey market too, which is your points classification which you get for winning stages across, uh, you know, across the, the breadth of the tour.
27:29
So, um, yeah, a lot of ways to bet it, but, uh, I'm mostly just in it for the views of France. Okay, to the NBA. Uh, this just came down.
27:37
Our, our buddy Wyatt Tomchek here behind the glass, um, podcast extraordinaire producer, among other great roles here at VSIN. Uh, he is a Bucks fan and he is pumped. The Milwaukee Bucks have just signed
27:51
Miles Turner after 10 years with the Pacers, and of course a run to the brink of an NBA championship, to a four-year, $107 million deal. Miles Turner, the latest free agent, uh, move in the NBA, and a big one at that.
28:08
Um, give us your overview of the, of NBA free agency thus far, your reaction to that. Uh, oh, there's more. Well, j- just to add on here- Yeah... this is a developing story.
28:15
The Bucks, uh, from Shams waiving Damian Lillard and stretching out the remainder of his contract over the next five years- Whoa... in order to make room for Miles Turner. Whoa. Hey, thanks for your, your service.
28:29
Sorry about that Achilles. Um, wow. All right, Drew, your reaction to all that and, and, and free agency in general. Yeah. Wow. [laughs] Like, that's a huge move. There's a lot. Um- Wow, man... man, the Bucks are...
28:46
I, I gotta look at their finances. Uh, yeah, that one's gonna take a while to digest. Over the next six- Yeah... six years. That, that... This team is in a weird spot. Weird roster. Um, Miles Turner,
28:57
my original thought was, "Boy, that's a lot of money for a guy who's probably gonna just, just about to enter the decline of his career," but he ap- is younger than I realized, even with as much service as he's had in the NBA.
29:09
Um, he's pretty, a pretty young guy. Um, so no, this might actually end up being a pretty fair deal for them.
29:14
It's a, a younger, similar style of player, uh, as Brook Lopez, a little bit less rim protection, a little bit better shooting and offensive production.
29:22
So, um, you know, it's, it's a more expensive s- maybe higher ceiling Brook Lopez. Um, so okay. Good luck.
29:30
Uh, I think the Bucks overall are still a team with way too many massive holes to take seriously in the Eastern Conference, even though the Eastern Conference is a joke.
29:38
Um, the, uh, the big winners so far in free agency for me were the Nuggets first. The Nuggets moving MPJ and getting an asset like Cam Thomas was masterful. Um, I,
29:54
I did not have really any expectations for this front office [laughs] when it was, uh, announced. I was like, "Okay. Well, it's good luck, guys." Uh, but, uh, that, uh, that was a really nice piece of work by them.
30:05
Um, I think the people are still sleeping on the Nuggets as being your second most likely winner of the title and the West. Um, the, uh, the market is still wildly hot on the Houston Rockets.
30:18
The Houston Rockets are making moves like they don't really have a clear self-assessment Um, you kinda need other pieces other than [laughs] what they are spending their, their money on.
30:33
Um, I'm not sure that they have anywhere close to the offensive ceiling that gets them a win in a s- in a series against a, a, a team with a, a, a Jokic or an SGA.
30:44
Uh, maybe even not enough to beat a, a s- uh, win a series with a team that has a Curry or a, a Luka.
30:49
So, um, the Rockets, despite all of their spending, uh, look to me still like a, you know, a clear third tier in terms of title contention in the West. Um, the Spurs I thought made some nice moves.
31:03
Um, no one's gonna really, uh, stand up and take notice with the Luke Kornet signing. Um, but efficiency wise, this year Luke Kornet was the fourth best Celtic. Yep. [laughs] Like, I,
31:16
I, I, I, it sound, it sounds crazy to say out loud, and that's the kinda thing where Charles Barkley's, you know, the Charles Barkley quote comes to, uh, comes to the forefront, and it's like, well, if the numbers say that Luke Kornet's the fourth best Celtic, then the numbers are stupid, you know?
31:29
[laughs] Um, but the, um, but he's good. He's a really, really nice young player, uh, on the ascension.
31:35
Um, and, uh, overall I think the Spurs are putting together a nucleus, nucleus that's gonna be, um, you know, very clearly, uh, you know, a, a problem in the West, uh, alongside the Thunder for years to come.
31:46
So nice job by them. Uh, and, uh, in the East, the only team that I've really kind of been taking notes on and, and impressed by has been the, um, uh, the Atlanta Hawks.
31:56
Uh, they have put together a really, really compelling young roster, uh, and good nucleus. And there is a weird, uh, very cool, um, you know, kind of market-wide, um, feeling about Trae Young apparently.
32:11
Um, Trae Young is a really good offensive player. You squint at the numbers and Trae Young and Jalen Brunson are effectively the same guy out there.
32:18
And I, I don't really know why you would think that the Knicks are somehow likely to win the East thanks to Brunson, but the, you know, the Hawks are not s- in the exact same position with Trae Young as their offensive anchor considering all of the other pieces they now have around him who can do exactly, you know, maybe even a better job of, uh, kind of, uh, fortifying his weaknesses defensively than what the Knicks can do for Brunson.
32:42
So, um, Hawks are, are gonna be a, a problem in the East, I think, uh, a surprise, uh, for a lot of teams just the way that that team has been, um, constructed. And, you know, a lot of it depends on health.
32:54
Jalen Johnson, I don't really know what to expect in terms of, you know, how he looks coming back off that massive injury. K- Porzingis, who the heck knows if he's even available for more than a third of the season.
33:03
But, um, but yeah, the Hawks were, uh, the biggest upgrader for me in the East by far. Great breakdrown, uh, great breakdown, Drew, on, on all that. And then I wanna say that Miles Turner, just to clarify, 29 years old.
33:15
Only 29 years old, which is interesting with NBA ages 'cause when Cam Johnson went to the Nuggets- [laughs]... I was like, "Oh my God, I can't believe he's that old. He's 29 years old." Oh, yeah, yeah.
33:23
I said the same- Yeah... you know, same thing, same age. Uh, Drew, thank you so much. Appreciate it, man. Awesome. You guys best of luck. Enjoy the rest of Wimbledon. Too. Whale_capper for all the Drew stuff.
33:34
Coming back with some MLB next. [upbeat music]
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