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Jul 21, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | July 21, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | July 21, 2025
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34:38
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
[upbeat rock music] It is a numbers game on this Monday. Mark Malusis with you in for Gil Alexander and Kelly. Both of them are vacationing. Wyatt doing a tremendous job today.
0:22
We got you for the next two hours, Wyatt producing, and got a great show on tap for you. Uh, over the course of the next two hours, get you set up for all the Monday action.
0:32
We'll go through the NFL division wins market, a betting preview of tonight's MLB slay- uh, slate. Uh, Paul Sporer will join us. Sia Najad will join us a little bit later on in the program.
0:42
Talk a little Penn State Nittany Lion football, James Franklin's crew going into and high expectations out in Happy Valley. Gregg Pickel will join the program a little bit later on as well.
0:52
But, you know, as we hit these airwaves on this, uh, on this Monday, whether you're West Coast, East Coast, it does not matter.
0:59
Um, you know, the Open Championship at Royal Portrush yesterday was decided, and once again, it was another dominant performance by the best golfer in the world, and that being Scottie Scheffler finishing at, uh, 17 under par, four shots ahead of Harris English.
1:14
Chris, uh, Garratt finished five shots off the pace. And to be perfectly honest with you, the... I mean, the tournament in the final round was an absolute bore.
1:22
I mean, once Scheffler go out, went out there, and I think he had a four-shot lead going into the final round. You pretty much thought it was a fait accompli that the, that the championship was gonna be decided.
1:32
And even though at one point in time, when he had an issue getting out of the sand trap back nine on Sunday at Royal Portrush and took a six and a double bogey on a par four. Outside of that, I mean, that was it.
1:44
I think he birdied the next hole to go back out to 15 under par. He finished at 17 under par.
1:49
I know the comparisons and the comps, you know, you're seeing it over the course of the last, you know, uh, nine, 10, 12 hours, whatever it might be, is this one, one final over in Northern Ireland.
1:58
There's the comparisons to, uh, Tiger Woods. Listen, um, there's no comparison to Tiger. Uh, Tiger made golf cool. Uh, Tiger brought a lot of younger players into the game.
2:11
Look at the amount of, uh, golf courses that were built around this country because of the brilliance of Tiger Woods. Uh, he's arguably the greatest golfer. And I didn't see Jack Nicklaus in his prime.
2:20
You know, I didn't see, uh, you know, Tom Watson in his prime. I didn't see some of the greats in their prime. I did see Tiger Woods, and he's the greatest golfer that I've ever seen. Is Scheffler close?
2:29
Yeah, he's close. The game is different with the separation of PGA and LIV. Uh, there's no doubt about it.
2:35
That does not come into the course of the conversation because a number of the LIV golfers obviously are partaking in the fourth major.
2:42
And the next big tournament, uh, outside of the FedEx Cup is gonna be the Ryder Cup, which is gonna be out at Bethpage Black on, in beautiful Long Island.
2:51
Um, and that is gonna be some scene, uh, as America takes on Europe, uh, over... And that is gonna be a rowdy scene at Bethpage Black. But Scheffler was brilliant at, and finishes at 17 under par.
3:02
And when you look at the markets, I mean, they, you know, there's just the utmost confidence.
3:06
It's weird when you, when you look at the golfing markets, and the 3M Open is coming up this week, and I'll give you a pick a little bit later on in the program of somebody that I like, a Canadian that played well a year ago in the 3M Open and has played well this year.
3:18
Missed the cut at the Open Championship at Royal Portrush, but I got a pick coming up in a little bit.
3:23
Um, but when you look at the betting markets in terms of golfers, when Scheffler is part of the tournament, he has earned everybody's trust. I mean, that's it.
3:31
And if Scheffler's there, you believe that he's gonna give a good account of himself, and there's not gonna be kind of the up-and-down rollercoaster nature when you see some- with some of these other golfers.
3:40
Whether it be, you look at Bryson DeChambeau, was terrible in the opening round. Did rally brilliant second, third, and fourth rounds, but still the damage was done after he had an opening round 78 at Royal Portrush.
3:52
You don't get the up-and-down nature when you see a Jordan Spieth, when you see, you know, a Dustin Johnson, who has kind of disappeared since going to the LIV Tour.
3:59
Not an up-and-down nature when you see Rory McIlroy, whether he's motivated.
4:03
When Scottie Scheffler's there, and he might tell you, as he did tell the media out in Northern Ireland, that, you know, these tournaments or wins do, don't necessarily define him as a player, and that's all well and good.
4:15
All you need to know is that Scheffler is damn brilliant, and he is the best golfer in the world and put on an absolute display.
4:22
And you look at what he has done in majors this year, fourth in the Masters, first in the PGA, seventh in the US Open, and then won the Open Championship at Royal Portrush yesterday. So he wins two majors here in 2025.
4:36
He is, without a shadow of a doubt, I don't care about the separation of LIV and PGA, he's without a shadow of a doubt the best golfer in the world, and put on another display yesterday, was the, obviously the betting choice going into the Open Championship.
4:49
And he's gonna be the betting choice in regardless, whether it's a major or whether it be a regular PGA Tour event. Uh, he's gonna be the betting favorite because he has garnered the trust of the bettor that he is...
5:00
When he is involved, he's gonna give a good account of himself.
5:03
And he might not win it, but for sure, he's probably gonna finish in the top 10, top five and give you an opportunity to win that tournament in any given Sunday, and he was brilliant over in Northern Ireland over the course of the weekend.
5:14
NFL training camps get going this week, and a couple of notes, um, ar- around the National Football League.
5:22
George Karlaftis, uh, with the Kansas City Chiefs signs a four-year, $93 million contract extension, 62 million of it being guaranteed.
5:30
That according to Adam Schefter and other insiders across the National Football League. Listen, Karlaftis is one of the key contributors when you're looking at that defense for Steve Spagnuolo.
5:39
It's a Kansas City Chief team that is not defined by the defense. We know that it's defined by the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes and obviously Andy Reid.
5:45
You have concerns about, you know, maybe the weaponry, the wide receivers, even though Mahomes is talking about the fact that Kansas City is gonna air it out once again.
5:53
The Chiefs, we know, got boat raced in the Super Bowl last February by the Philadelphia Eagles.
5:58
But you wanna talk about an inherent trust, well, the inherent trust is in Kansas City if you're looking at the AFC, and Karlaftis is now signed to a contract extension, four years, $93 million.
6:09
Just for kind of notes and purposes, uh, just came out minutes ago that Will Levis, quarterback with the Tennessee Titans, done for the year. Uh, he's gonna undergo right shoulder surgery.
6:19
Does it necessarily factor in for Tennessee? It does not, because the Tennessee Titans are gonna be led by a rookie quarterback, uh, in Cam Ward moving forward here, and that is his franchise.
6:28
And you look at Will Levis, and a guy that was drafted in the second round, previous regime. You looked at Will Levis, and you looked at a scenario saying to yourself, "Well-
6:36
You know, he had an opportunity, uh, to prove some of the naysayers wrong.
6:40
He had an opportunity, uh, to go out there and prove himself to be a, a starting quarterback in the National Football League, and their win total this year, uh, in that AFC South, not particularly high, sitting there at five and a half.
6:51
Um, the real market to look at when you look at Tennessee is potentially b- obviously being Cam Ward and what he could statistically do and, you know, Rookie of the Year and stuff like that because I think he's ridiculously special.
7:03
And even though we saw, you know, Shedor Sanders drop in the draft, the Giants move back up into the first round to go get Jaxson Dart.
7:10
Some of the other, you know, rookies that we've talked about, um, in terms of the National Football League, um, you know, and their impact, especially at the running back position.
7:19
I don't think there's any shadow of a doubt that Cam Ward was the best quarterback in this draft class, and I think he is gonna prove to be ridiculously special and, you know, had a tremendous kind of...
7:28
Uh, every pathway is different to the NFL, and Cam Ward's obviously was different. Uh, was not highly recruited coming out of high school.
7:35
Obviously established himself at Washington State, transferred after entering the NFL draft two drafts ago, then decided to transfer to Miami, got paid with the NIL deal, went out there, had a ridiculously s- a ridiculously good season for the Miami Hurricanes, and then ends up coming out into the NFL draft and being draft eligible.
7:53
Um, and he ends up going number one overall. Easy guy to root for, given his pathway.
7:58
Uh, by talking to NFL teams, by no stretch of the map, by all accounts, he was the number one quarterback in this draft class, even with all the buzz around Shedor Sanders or maybe a Jaxson Dart.
8:08
And I think Cam Ward, obviously, um, it's gonna be a work in progress down there in Tennessee, uh, but they believe they've got their franchise quarterback, and I do, too.
8:16
The Seattle Seahawks, uh, they've released starting tight end Noah Fant. Did that yesterday.
8:21
Uh, Fant's release, which comes two days before veterans are due to report to training camp, saves the team $9 million in cash, 8.91 million in cap space. Seattle will take on, uh, four and a half million in dead money.
8:33
So Noah Fant, a former first-round draft choice or a former top pick, uh, you know, a tight end coming out of college, um, and was a very, very good college player, necessarily.
8:43
Started his career at Denver, then traded to Seattle. He was part of that Russell Wilson trade.
8:48
You look at the Seattle Seahawks, they're an interesting talking point in that NFC West in a division in which now they've got Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback.
8:56
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is gonna decide the-- define their w- uh, wide receiver room with DK Metcalf now being a wideout with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
9:03
But I think the buzz team in that division is not necessarily Seattle, it's the, it's the Los Angeles Rams. And I'm all kinda Ram crazy this year. [laughs] I really am because I...
9:13
You know, I love the fact that Stafford's back.
9:15
And even though they went out there and told him to go out and test the market, and there were a couple teams, including the New York Giants, that were intrigued with Matthew Stafford, even at this stage of his career, their win totals sit at nine and a half.
9:26
The intriguing thing about the NFC West is the San Francisco 49ers, we know when we look at their roster, isn't necessarily as talented as they once were, and their win total is sitting at seven-- 10 and a half for the season.
9:38
However, you look at the San Francisco 49ers schedule, and you say to yourself, "They're gonna get to 11 wins on the year." They might have a regression on the offensive line.
9:48
There might be a regression on the defensive line. But the 49ers schedule is very, very easy on the year. And even though... And the betting markets would lead you to believe this as well, right?
9:58
So you look at San Francisco, and you look at their division odds are a plus 150, and you look at their, um, the S- Los Angeles Rams, their division odds are a plus 195. The 49ers are...
10:10
have longer odds to win the NFC than the Rams and longer odds to win the Super Bowl than the Los Angeles Rams. So even though the San Francisco 49ers might be favored to win the NFC West,
10:24
people believe the Rams are a more dangerous team, and I agree with them. I think when you look at that Ram team with Stafford, with McVay, they prove to be a dynamic quarterback-head coach combination.
10:34
You throw in Davante Adams now to go to-- with Puka Nacua, Kyle Williams going out there running the football. They de- have already dealt with the loss of Aaron Donald on defense.
10:44
And you look at that defensive line, the interior of that defensive line, they might not be as big, but they are very, very disruptive.
10:50
And all you have to harken back is to last year's NFL playoffs and the NFC playoffs and that round in the snow, even after the Saquon Barkley touchdown run in the snow in Philadelphia when everybody and their mother thought the game was over.
11:04
Well, it took a, a Carter sack of Matthew Stafford to disrupt the Los Angeles Rams because they looked like they were going in for a late score in order to take the lead.
11:12
So the Rams are gonna be a super dangerous team coming into it. The 49ers might win that division. The Seattle Seahawks are intriguing because of Darnold. And what is Sam Darnold without,
11:23
uh, Kevin O'Connell and the Minnesota Vikings and without Justin Jefferson? How is he gonna prove?
11:27
Did he all of a sudden find it a year ago in Minnesota, or was he a product of the circumstances and the players around him?
11:35
That's gonna be the intriguing conversation around Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks going into 2025. It's great that football's back. It's the Numbers Game on this Monday right here.
11:43
Mark Malus is in for Gil Alexander on Vsion. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do.
12:00
Just one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on Vsion. It is the Numbers Game on this Monday right here on Vsion. Mark Malus is in for the great Gil Alexander.
12:14
And joining us right now is Sia Najad, who does a great job, a host and analyst for SportsLine. Hey, Sia, Mark Malus is with you. Thanks for the time this afternoon. Appreciate it. Mark, my pleasure.
12:25
Love being on this show. Love being here with you. Love that we're, what, 45 days away from NFL season. We got PGA going. There's a lot going on right now There is a lot going on. Let's start there.
12:36
Like, it's-- I was watching the Open yesterday, Sia, and it's boring, right? But that's really- Yeah... the brilliance of Scottie Scheffler.
12:42
I mean, it's just, you never think he's coming back, you never think he's gonna collapse. There's not gonna be, you know...
12:48
He's not gonna take a quadruple bogey on the fi-- Like, it, he is just unbelievably dominant, and was once again, uh, over in Royal Portrush finishing, you know, four shots ahead of the rest of the field at 17 under par.
13:00
What more can you say about the brilliant American? Well, it's funny how you e-express that, because it, it is kind of boring, because he's kind of on autopilot.
13:10
A-and I, I do think there are fans that want, you know, more emotion out of Scottie Scheffler. They want the press conferences to be a little bit more fiery, a little bit more passionate.
13:17
But that's just not his temperament, and that's the type of temperament that lends itself to a guy who is, again, feels like he's on autopilot.
13:25
Even when he double bogeyed yesterday in the final round, he bounces back like he always does with a birdie. He's so good. He's figuring out with the-- He's figuring it, it out with the putter as well.
13:35
It's just there's not anything you can say about Scottie in terms of, uh, his game, and that's why it tends to be boring on Sundays when he's in the tournament.
13:44
And from a betting standpoint, I gotta tell ya, I bet the without market. I've been doing it all year, and I get criticism sometimes, 'cause, like, you know, step up and just take your guy.
13:53
And it's like, no, no, no, Scottie Scheffler is that much better than everybody else.
13:56
My without ticket, by the way, was on Matt Fitzpatrick, and that was looking good for about two and a half, three days, and then he just kinda had a bad Saturday and Sunday. Still finished inside the top five.
14:05
But I'm telling you, if you're betting golf and Scottie Scheffler's in the tournament, more often than not, if you wanna have a, an electric Sunday, you better be betting in the without Scottie Scheffler market.
14:15
All right, Sia, let's get into a little NFL. You hit upon it, right? Because you can sense it. Training camp's getting going. Um, you know, win totals on the season. Before we get into some of the awards, right?
14:24
Offensive Player of the Year, uh, Defensive Player of the Year, the MVP market. Anything from a win total perspective? We talked about division wins a little bit earlier on last hour.
14:34
Um, I think that's an interesting marketplace. What about win totals? Anything that you love when you're looking at overs or unders and dealer's choice? I'll give you an over and an under.
14:44
Let's start with an over on the Denver Broncos. I think you can get their over nine and a half wins still at around even money, maybe minus one oh five. I just think this team is really, really good.
14:55
I love the, the Bo Nix situation. You know, going into last year, I was big on Jayden Daniels, I was down on Caleb Williams, and I was kinda lukewarm on Bo Nix. I didn't really have a strong opinion one way or the other.
15:05
But what I love about Bo Nix is what, where the tutelage is coming from. I, I just feel like Sean Payton is doing such a good job with Bo Nix.
15:12
We saw it in the second half of the season, where he was getting the ball out quick. His touchdown-interception ratio really sort of skyrocketed. And then you look at what's around Bo Nix.
15:21
Yes, the skill positions aren't great. Uh, the running back situation isn't necessarily great. But literally everything else on the Broncos is pretty great, including their defense, where they added...
15:31
This was already a great defense, right Mark? They added Hufanga, they added Greenlaw. Yeah. Uh, they, they went out and got Jadyn Barron in the draft. I mean, this defense is potentially the best defense in the league.
15:41
Certainly, in my opinion, top three if they stay relatively healthy. And oh, by the way, the other side of the ball. I've mentioned Bo Nix doesn't have a ton of weapons. Well, how do we build a team?
15:49
We build it inside out, and that's exactly what the Broncos are doing. The interior offensive line is so good. The interior defensive line is so good.
15:58
Nine and a half wins is a lot, especially when you're in a tough division with, uh, you know, Raiders allegedly improving. You know, I'm not so sure about that. We'll see.
16:05
But certainly the Chargers get a lot of respect because nobody can resist the aura of Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. I think they're a bit overrated, but they're still a good team.
16:13
And then, of course, you got the Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs. Nine and a half is, is a bit of a climb, but this Denver Broncos team is way better than people think, so I like the over there.
16:22
Should I give my, my under here, Mark? Yeah. Let's get your under. Let's do it. Yeah, let's get your under. I, I don't really see... Okay, so the Tennessee Titans have- Yeah...
16:32
some, what, what people would call sort of layup games on their schedule. The problem with that sentiment is the Titans are the layup to everybody else in the league, right? I mean, so- That's true...
16:42
you have the Titans that have a couple of stretches in the beginning, or I should say sort of the, the, the front end of the season and, and the back end of the season where there's a few games where you're like, "Okay, these are coin flip games.
16:52
The Titans could potentially win." Coin flip games, so let's give them 50% of those.
16:56
You know, they play the s- They play-- Their division isn't super strong, but they also play, like, the Cleveland Browns, they play the New Orleans Saints. Let's give them a few of those games.
17:03
Where are they getting to six wins? Mark, this team, first of all, let's start with Cam Ward. I think Cam Ward's gonna need a lot of time. I don't think...
17:10
I think he's a great guy, and I think he will eventually be a good quarterback. But he is going to a place where learning on the fly is not gonna be easy, and that's because they don't have good skill position players.
17:22
They don't, they just don't have a, a great running back room. And oh, by the way, the offensive line isn't great. Then you look at the other side of the ball. This defense, Mark, is bad.
17:31
The front seven is ba- Like, there's nothing about this defense, there's nothing in the off-season where you said to yourself, "Oh, the Titans are really improved here."
17:37
So I just think Cam Ward is walking into a situation that's really bad, and I don't see them getting to six wins. I can get the under five and a half wins at plus 125.
17:46
I do realize this is the NFL, and I do realize some of these teams, like my team, the Washington Commanders last year, you know, you can get a quarterback, you can get some momentum, you can win some close games, whi-which the Titans didn't do last year, and all of a sudden get to seven or eight wins.
18:00
Cam Ward is not Jayden Daniels, and this setup, this team is not the Commanders' setup. This is a bad team on both sides of the ball. I see under five and a half wins.
18:09
Yeah, love the Santana Moss, uh, photo, by the way, over your left shoulder. Fantastic photo. Appreciate that. Sia, uh, let's talk a little bit about, uh, the MVP marketplace.
18:17
We're jo- being joined by Sia Najad from SportsLine. Obviously, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes leading that marketplace. Anything when you're looking at NFL futures in terms of MVP of the league?
18:29
It's become basically a quarterback-driven award. Yeah. We know it's the most important position in the NFL. How about the MVP race or the MVP market in the NFL? Yeah, I, I like a couple. So MVP is interesting.
18:41
I'll give you a take there. I, I do have, like, a super long shot on Defensive Player of the Year, and a not so long shot on Offensive Player of the Year that I'm, uh, passionate about.
18:48
If I had to narrow down the MVP, I... So I wanna, I wanna say Jayden Daniels real bad. But I do think there's some regression in order for Washington, particularly offensively with the fourth down conversions.
18:59
Jayden Daniels, not gonna have a sophomore slump in my opinion. I like what they did, and at plus 850, plus 900, I would consider him. But I do think it's Joe Burrow's award to lose.
19:09
Lamar Jackson would be the other consideration 'cause I think, I think the Ravens are gonna be the best team in the AFC. I think they're gonna win the Super Bowl. So I, I could see Lamar getting it.
19:16
But when you look at Joe Burrow, and we see here at plus 650, it's not a super tantalizing number. But let's talk about how tantalizing the situation is for Joe Burrow.
19:25
Let's assume for the sake of argument that Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and Joe Burrow are healthy for most of the year. This defense is just as bad as the defense that they had last year.
19:34
What does that mean for Joe Burrow and company? Hopefully for them, it means they win some of those close games, because they certainly could've been better last year.
19:40
Offensively, they're just gonna have to pump the ball down the field. They have no choice. Joe Burrow's one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he's got two of the best weapons in the league.
19:48
And Ja'Marr Chase is just so good. I think the numbers are gonna skyrocket basically out of need for the Bengals. Because I think they're going to need... Yeah, they'll, they'll run the ball a little bit.
19:56
Chase Brown might catch some passes too, by the way, from Joe Burrow. But I think Joe Burrow's in a position to put up a statistical profile that is just too good to ignore.
20:04
As long as they have some semblance of a winning record or something close to it, I think it's really gonna be hard to ignore the numbers that Joe Burrow's gonna put up.
20:13
All right, you mentioned it, Sia, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. You, you lead the way. Where do you wanna go first, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year?
20:21
You got some i- ideas and, uh, and got some insight there. What do you like? I mean, let's go to the battery mate of Joe Burrow. I mean, I, I hate to be, like, just harping on the Bengals here, but what did- Yeah...
20:32
what did Ja'Marr Chase lead in as a receiver last year? And don't forget, this is the same situation the Bengals are in this year, uh, versus last year in terms of what they're gonna have to do offensively. Let's see.
20:42
He led in touchdowns with 17. He had about 700, uh, 1,700 receiving yards. He led there. He led in targets. He led in receptions. He led in yards after the catch. Why is this situation any different?
20:52
It's not like Ja'Marr Chase is, uh, is, like, suddenly out of his prime. It's not like it's a different situation. Any time you try to focus on Ja'Marr Chase, it just doesn't work out for you.
21:01
He is going to put up maybe not the same exact profile, but when you look at the other players in contention, Jahmyr Gibbs, what kind of split does he gr- does he get?
21:09
Saquon Barkley, does the workload scale back a little bit, or do some of the touchdowns get stolen again, uh, by Jalen Hurts? You look at Bijan Robinson. Is it, is it too early for Bijan to grab something?
21:18
There's still... His running mate is still in that backfield as well. And then you look at Justin Jefferson, great receiver. But J.J. McCarthy is the quarterback.
21:25
What kind of downgrade and what kind of different setup is that? And of course, they have another receiver on that team that could step up as well.
21:31
It just seems like Ja'Marr Chase is in such a great position to have basically a mirror year from last year. As far as Defensive Player of the Year, Mark, I'm going way down the board. I'm going way- Where you going?...
21:42
down the board. I, I like the Houston Texans this year. And it's not because I think C.J. Stroud is gonna bounce back, although I think that's true as well.
21:49
This defense is very good, and they're in a d- division that's very soft. And they're in a division that has a lot of soft quarterbacks. And I don't mean that in the typical way, soft.
21:57
I, I mean, like, these are a lot of quarterbacks that are turnover-prone, that aren't very good, that are young. We're talking about Trevor Lawrence. We're talking about Cam Ward.
22:03
We're talking about some combination of Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. This defense is going to get after it. And on that defense, you got Will Anderson. He's great, right?
22:11
He's like 13 hun- 13 to 1 or so to win Defensive Player of the Year. You got Derek Stingley sort of in that range as well. They might have great seasons. Daniil Hunter is 80 to 1. Ah. 75 to 1, wherever you find it.
22:24
He is a great edge rusher. Why is Will Anderson in the 13, 15 to 1 range, and Daniil Hunter in the 80, 75 to 1 range? It doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe you put him at 50, but you don't put him at 80 or 75.
22:35
This guy had 12 sacks last year. This guy is, uh, consistently an All-Pro, is, is consistently a Pro Bowler. He's only 30 years old. He just got extended by the Houston Texans.
22:44
This guy is absolutely money, and he gets to chase those quarterbacks just like Will Anderson does. He could absolutely have a high-impact season. I love him at 75, 80 to 1. I love it. Sia, last one for you.
22:55
We have about 30 seconds here. You mentioned you have the Ravens winning the Super Bowl. Who do you have coming out of the NFC? So I think the Eagles are the best team all around.
23:03
But I think the Rams can beat the Eagles. And I think you- I'm with you... could make an argument that they could've beat the Eagles last year.
23:09
So you could also make an argument that they should've beat the Detroit Lions the year before if not for... Nobody talks about it, but there was a pass interference on Puka Nacua late in the game that wasn't called.
23:16
They would've win the ga- won the game there. I'm rewriting history a little bit, but the Rams are good. [laughs] Love the emerging defense, love Sean McVay, love the addition of Davante Adams.
23:23
So I'm gonna go Ravens, Rams 'cause I like the odds of it. But the Eagles certainly in that conversation as well. Sia Najad from SportsLine. Sia, thanks for the time here on this Monday. Continued success, all right?
23:34
Thanks, Mark. Enjoyed it. You got it. We'll come back. We'll talk a little Big Ten football. It's a numbers game on a Monday right here on VSiN.
23:41
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:01
All right, let's talk a little Big Ten football, shall we? Mark Malus is in for Gil Alexander on this Monday on the numbers game. Greg Pickle joins us now.
24:08
Covers Penn State and recruiting for Blue White Illustrated, On3.com. Check him out. Does a fantastic job. College football right around the corner. Media, media day, media week this week for the Big Ten.
24:19
Hey, Greg, thanks for the time this afternoon. Appreciate it. Mark, always a pleasure to be with you. It's happy, happy time of year when we're talking college football. So glad we're there. No doubt.
24:30
And well, let me ask you this, Greg, just kind of big pic- like, what is, you know, the, the buzz around the Nittany Lions?
24:35
Obviously they're the one of the three teams, I talked about it earlier this hour, it's either Penn State, Oregon, or Ohio State when you're looking top of the market.
24:42
You know, all three could conceivably be in the college football playoffs. Uh, the Nittany Lions are behind Ohio State, just ahead of Oregon in terms of the betting market to win the Big Ten Conference.
24:52
What's the buzz around the Nittany Lions here? Jim Knowles is the defensive coordinator coming off a successful college football playoffs last year. Aller back, loss of Abdul Carter.
25:02
What's the, what's the buzz around the program right now, Greg? Yeah. It's you, you and I just talked about it off the air a second ago, but if it's-- the question now for Penn State is, if not now, when?
25:13
So this Penn State team, many think followed the exact same blueprint that Ohio State and that Michigan did en route to their recent national titles, where they returned a lot of talent from the season before that could've went to the NFL draft.
25:24
And Penn State does that with Drew Aller, with Nick Singleton, with Kaytron Allen. They return maybe one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. They have a lot of guys back on defense, not everyone.
25:33
They, of course, lose Abdul Carter and Tyler Warren, two first-round draft picks, uh, one on each side of the ball. But they follow that model of getting most of their guys back for another year that could've left.
25:43
And so you combine that with some transfer portal wins and the production that those guys have already put together, and that's why you have a team that is, this morning cleveland.com and then, uh, to have their preseason media poll out, since the Big Ten doesn't do one anymore, uh, Penn State on top of that.
25:56
I can't remember how many first place votes Penn State had, but it was quite a few. Um, and that's kind of been the going rate.
26:01
You have teams, or I'm sorry, people that think, uh, they're ready to finally put the can't beat the, quote-unquote, "big teams" or best teams behind them bug, um, and move on from that. And so we'll see.
26:11
They're gonna get that first test a- against Oregon at the end of September.
26:14
But yeah, the buzz right now is that this is the best team James Franklin has had, and that it's time for him and this program to finally get over the hump and beat, uh, some of the teams, again, like the Ohio States to, like the Oregons, um, and then when you get to the playoffs, like the Notre Dames, uh, that Penn State struggled with in the past.
26:30
So that's certainly what we're gonna hear a lot of in Vegas when Penn State takes the stage at Big Ten media days on Wednesday, and I'm sure, uh, the same will go for Tuesday and Thursday out there as well.
26:39
You know, Greg, I, I'm, I'm curious when you look at Franklin, and not every season is one and the same, but you look at James Franklin-led teams, 4 and 17 against Michigan and Ohio State.
26:49
3 and 19 record is Penn State against teams that are in the top 10.
26:53
Um, why the struggles when, you know, to, to beat the teams that, you know, they're on the same level with or maybe, you know, a little bit better than, but why these struggles against the upper echelon teams across college football?
27:07
Yeah. You know, obviously you have it up on the screen there for those watching, but certainly their numbers are what they are. 4 and 17 against Michigan and Ohio State, 3 and 19 against the top 10 teams.
27:16
Uh, they're picked to go to the Big Ten championship by a lot of people this year, but they've only been there once in the James Franklin era.
27:22
Um, you know, a lot of those games he's lost, Penn State's been an underdog in because they have not always recruited at the same level of those schools.
27:29
I think they've developed as well as them, but haven't always recruited there, so they've been underdogs in those games and lost most of them as, uh, the point spread indicated that they probably would.
27:37
So, uh, why though? The question's great. I mean, last year, as everyone that watched the Orange Bowl knows, the receiver position was an enormous issue.
27:44
And Penn State had playmakers all over the place, but not even Tyler Warren, the star tight end for Penn State, who's now with the Colts, could do enough to help Penn State overcome that lack of explosive and, uh, talented playmakers at the receiver spot last year.
27:57
So in other years, it's been the defense not being able to hold up. In other years, it's been the offense not scoring enough against those best teams.
28:03
Typically, it's just been, uh, Penn State being just a cut below those best teams on their schedule, and that's why the record is what it is.
28:10
Uh, and I think that's why so many think this is the year that Penn State and that James Franklin can change that.
28:15
Because you look at all the changes that are happening with Oregon having a, you know, o- obviously a change under center.
28:20
Ohio State has lots of turnover, but, you know, two of the best players in the country are Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downstill. But there's a lot of turnover across the country.
28:28
And any year you go into a season with a quarterback in Drew Aller, who many think is one of, if not the best in the Big Ten returning and, and one of the best, if not, uh, the best in the country coming back, uh, certainly it gets the antenna up for a lot of people.
28:42
So it seems to me that if they fix the receiver issues in the transfer portal like they think they did, they brought in three guys, Trevor Pena from Syracuse, Devonte Ross from, uh, Troy, and Kyren Hudson from USC.
28:53
If those guys, plus what they bring back, help fix the, the receiver position, this team should have everything it needs.
28:59
Now, obviously you just don't replace two first-round draft picks with the snap of a finger, but they feel good about where they're at at tight end, and I think they feel better about their defensive end situation.
29:09
I don't know if there's an Abdul Carter ready for the, you know, first three weeks of the season. I think someone's gonna have to play themselves into that kind of a game-wrecking role.
29:16
But certainly I think by the time Oregon gets there at the end of September, Penn State's defense could be there.
29:21
If I'm really bullish on Penn State, when you're looking at, you know, like them to win over 10 and a half games, think they knock off Oregon on, you know, September the 27th, think they win a national championship this year, Greg, d- am, am I looking at Aller taking a couple steps forward as a quarterback in college football?
29:40
Well, I think if what you think is gonna happen with this season ends up being the case, then yeah, he's gonna have to, because I think the version of Drew Aller we saw last year was pretty good.
29:48
But as we saw in the biggest games, much like in, you know, we talk about what leads Penn State to have the record and James Franklin to have the record that it does against some of these better opponents or more high-profile opponents on the roster, uh, it's because at times the quarterback play has not been as good as it is against the, uh, Indianas or Iowas of the world when compared to the Michigans and Oregons and Ohio States of the world.
30:11
So that was the case in the, um, Orange Bowl last year when Penn State lost to Notre Dame in the semifinal.
30:16
Again, I don't think that game is on him as much as maybe some people put it on him, because everyone remembers that interception, the end, uh, pr- more or less end the game, put Notre Dame in position to kick the game-winning field goal.
30:27
But, you know, again, he did not have help with the receiver position last year, and it came back to bite him and them, uh, at that point.
30:34
So but does that mean he is completely, uh, without blame for some of Penn State's issues in those big moments last year? No, of course not. And so he is gonna have to take a step forward.
30:43
The touchdown-to-interception ratio has been one of his biggest strengths, and that's great, but he's gonna have to try to, with these new receivers, find some ways to make some more explosive plays, some more, uh, downfield throws that lead to more risk.
30:54
And that could lead to more interceptions. But that's one way Andy Kotelnicki, the offensive coordinator who enters year two, I think, can unlock him and unlock more of this big play offense.
31:03
Now look, the offense will go through the running backs.
31:05
I don't think there's any doubt that when you return Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, two of the best returning running backs in the country, and probably the best two outside of Jeremiah Love, I think they're probably the three people people talk about the most at running back from Notre Dame, uh, you're gonna run the ball.
31:18
So I don't know if you need Drew Aller to be A superstar week in and week out. Do you need him to be a first-round talent though when it matters? Yes, and we've seen him be able to do that from time to time.
31:28
Now it'll be about doing it consistently in his third year as a starter.
31:30
And yeah, I think that if you're right and Penn State is in the national title game or, you know, w- winning it even, uh, then we will be able to sit here in January and have a conversation about the steps that he moved up this season without question.
31:43
Greg, when i- if you look outside of Penn State, Ohio State, and Oregon, is there anybody else in the Big Ten that you think is set up to have a big year?
31:55
Yeah, so I know on your guys' uh, network here, there's been some people really high on Illinois, and I don't disagree with them.
32:01
I think that we're gonna find a lot out about Illinois when they play Duke and former Penn State, uh, defensive coordinator Manny Diaz early in the season.
32:08
So I think that'll tell us a lot about whether Brett Bielema's team is the real deal or whether they are a team that I think a lot of people look at and say they could be the Indiana of twenty twenty-five because the schedule sets up pretty favorably for them.
32:21
So Illinois' team is obviously not the one of the favorites to win the Big Ten by any means, but certainly an interesting one to keep an eye on. I think Nebraska, you have the odds up for those watching.
32:30
Forty to one I think is a very interesting price on Nebraska. Certainly that the, you know, the board tells you everything you need to know, right?
32:36
Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon is almost certainly where your Big Ten title winner's gonna come from. But Nebraska interests me as a team this year that could be a little bit better than people think.
32:45
And when you look at the win total side of things, the one I love is UCLA.
32:49
I think UCLA, I know that Deshaun Foster got maybe a little bit of a bad rap starting at Big Ten media days last year when he didn't really know what to say, uh, when he was up there for his first podium news conference.
32:59
But the UCLA is a team that interests me a little bit as one that could be, uh, better than what its win total is. So, uh, but yeah, those are the ones I look at.
33:06
I still think, again, that your winner of the Big Ten comes out of Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon. Penn State's gonna play both of them this year, Oregon first and then Ohio State in November.
33:15
And we'll see how that, uh, you know, what that leads to for who makes this Big Ten title game in a world of tiebreakers and not, uh, you know, East Division, West Division.
33:24
So pretty interesting to see how all that'll play out. But yeah, those are a few of the teams I think could be interesting this year for sure. Greg, last one for you. Twenty seconds here.
33:32
Who's the next big stud for Penn State defensively? Yeah, so again, Danai Denzile and Zane Durant are the two up front that everyone knows about. Keep an eye on Zakee Wheatley, very under-discussed safety for Penn State.
33:43
Started every game last year.
33:44
Doesn't get that kind of attention, but I think he's gonna be a game wrecker for the Nittany Lions this year in the secondary, and I think he's the guy that if this defense continues to play at the high level it has in the James Franklin era, he'll be a big reason why.
33:56
Greg Pickel covers Penn State recruiting for Blue White Illustrated on three.com. Greg, thanks for the time this afternoon. Appreciate it. It's great that college football is back, Greg. Yes, it is. Yes.
34:07
Thanks so much for having me, guys. Have a great rest of the week. You guys as well.
34:11
Penn State obviously one of those teams that are not only in contention to win the Big Ten title, uh, but can win a national championship. I think it's all gonna reside.
34:19
What you feel about Penn State this year resides on what you feel about Drew Allar. Stay tuned to VSAN Numbers Game. Money Moves up next, Stormy and JVT. Then stick around for Prop Points with Nick Whalen, two p.m.
34:30
Make It Rain, three o'clock this afternoon. Thanks to everyone behind the scenes. This has been a Numbers Game on a Monday right here on VSAN.
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