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Jul 23, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 23, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 23, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bye-Delon, it says here.
0:22
Kelly Bye-Delon. Hi, Kelly Bye-Delon here. Good to see you. Producer number nine. So much more than a producer. What's happening, man? Not much, not much. Quiet couple days. Anything happen yesterday I should know about?
0:31
Eh, nothing really. No. Nothing? Everything's good? Okay. Uh, on the show today, Drew Dinsick to talk Olympics. Oh, you got Olympics fever? Yeah? Huh? Dude, opening ceremony's on Friday. LeBron carrying the flag. Yeah.
0:45
Would you be nervous if you were carrying the flag to drop it? Or would you be like, "Oh my God, I better hold onto this thing"?
0:50
You know what, that's what-- That's exactly one of those things I wouldn't think about until Gil Alexander asked me about. [laughs] Like the arm swinging thing. Right after I asked. But yes, I would. Yeah.
0:57
Talked about your pronounced arm swing. Exactly, yes. "Hey, Kelly, you know, we might not want to drop the flag." Like now I feel bad for LeBron. He obviously listens to this show every day. Yes.
1:05
He's gonna be-- It's gonna be in his head now when he's, uh, walking out there. Billions are watching, Kelly. You also might want to, uh, slow down on the arm swing- [laughs]... while you're at it.
1:13
Uh, and of course, uh... Not of course, I shouldn't say this. Paul Sporer might be of course. But Aaron Schatz on the show today. Uh, Aaron, who comes on this show quarterly during the NFL season to talk DVOA with us.
1:26
He used to be, uh, he was the founder of Football Outsiders, pioneer in NFL analytics. Uh, he will now-- he now does stuff at FTN. FTN, by the way, doesn't stand for anything, just FTN. It's like Harry S. Truman.
1:39
Look up the S. It stands for nothing. FTN Sports. Uh, but he- Really? Yeah, that's true. He has done this, Aaron has, football preview guides, for 20 years now. 20.
1:49
This is his second year doing it at FTN, and so he will join us. By the way, it's like a, it, it's called Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac.
1:57
Well, yeah, I mean, that was, it was a big deal when they, when, when, uh, when they got, uh, the DVOA and Football Outsiders acquisition. So yeah, he should have his name on it. Yeah. He should.
2:06
It's like, uh, Berry Gordy's The Last Dragon. That's a reference you won't understand. [laughs] No, I don't at all. Neil Simon's something on Broadway, right?
2:12
Also, does, does FTN, is it just kind of like fantasy shorted, shortened? You know what I mean? I don't know, but FTN sounds like it would be a football thing, right? Or f- or a fantasy thing. Yeah. Yeah.
2:22
Anyway, he'll join us 'cause we're gonna talk his big surprise sort of thoughts, uh, from the preview guide. I have a little, uh, bone to pick.
2:30
Not really, but kind of, 'cause guess who's number 32 in DVOA heading into the season? Oof. [laughs] Your Washington Taco Holders. [laughs] Number 32, he said. Okay. Ah, Ben went after them last week too. Did he?
2:43
Oh, boy. [laughs] By the way- Ben buried them. By the way, can I, I failed to say this yesterday, and it's super bad form 'cause it's always the first thing I say when I come back from vacation.
2:52
For whatever reason, we glossed over yesterday. Jared Smith, Ben Wilson, both awesome. Jared is, is super awesome. Ben is super awesome.
3:01
They are great at what they do, and I really appreciate them, uh, hanging out here with me. Yeah, man, yeah, they kick ass every time. I had to hang out with you five days for context.
3:08
I, I, that's what, that's what I feel bad about. [laughs] Uh, oh, okay, I should probably start with this, though. Yesterday, we were joking here at the top.
3:15
Yesterday, I don't know if you saw the, uh, the press release, uh, Musburger Media. That's what we're calling it now? Musburger Media? Musburger Media. [laughs] Yeah. I caught that note as well.
3:24
That was, that was a, kind of slid that one through Congress. Little slip in, yeah. [laughs] I was like, "Okay." Uh, Musburger Media announced it has, uh, purchased VSiN, the sports betting network, from DraftKings.
3:33
Um, original founders Brian Musburger and Bill Adee, who were part of the team that previously launched and led the multi-platform broadcast and content company, will lead it moving forward.
3:44
And, um, that, Kelly, is fantastic news for all of us. Um, it is something, and, and Kelly, you, you know this from when we left the South Point. You and I are pretty good at steel trapping things.
3:58
Like if the Musburger's ever needed a secret kept, you and I are pretty good choices. Mm-hmm.
4:02
Um, so sort of kept this under wraps here for a long time until, until like the last couple weeks where it kind of just got out there. Um, so this is, um...
4:12
Listen, if you, if you're, if you're looking for me to say a bad thing about DraftKings, I won't. Uh, we were with DraftKings for three years.
4:18
DraftKings purchased it, uh, purchased VSiN in 2021, in March, I believe, of 2021, after we had been on air for four years. Um, and, um, DraftKings always treated me nicely. I think they always treated you nicely. Yep.
4:32
With any corporate takeover, there are always challenges. Let's put it that way. I'm not gonna, we're not gonna say everything was always rosy. But they're, you know, they, they treated us beautifully and, and, uh,
4:43
tried to work us out. I think, you know, if you ask them, they had a media strategy, and I don't know if they, if their vision was realized in all the different media things they were doing. Mm-hmm.
4:54
And nonetheless, this opportunity presented itself, and Brian and Bill, as we know them, Brian Musburger, Bill Adee, uh, repurchased.
5:02
By the way, I don't purport to speak for them 'cause I don't know the details of anything. I have not pried. They have not shared. Um, they shared as much as they could. Um, but it's, you know, it was widely reported.
5:13
It was a bar stool type deal. Not exactly bar stool, by the way. They wish it were a bar stool type deal, believe me. Um, but it wasn't quite that. Um, did they purchase it for less than they s- sold it for? Sure.
5:25
Um, but I will just say this. Brian and Bill, I have said this to you privately, I've said it to other people privately.
5:32
If VSiN were to have e- just personally speaking, if, if VSiN were to end tomorrow, if it were to end the next day, I will never have a bad thought about either of those two guys.
5:42
Um, they s- it was their vision, along with, by the way, Brent Musburger and Todd Musburger and Michelle Musburger.
5:48
It was their vision, uh, to have the first ever sports betting network, and it has been nothing but, um, the finest ride there has ever been. And that ride continues now with VSiN 3.0.
5:59
So I just want to address a couple things that, uh- Because we got a lot of feedback on this yesterday.
6:05
Um, but I think the most common tweets that I got to see, maybe in your timeline as well, one of them [laughs] one of them is, "Get that guy out of the D." Well, we'll see. I don't know. Maybe. Anything's possible now.
6:19
What was it that one troll said one time? He goes, "He's broadcasting from a food court." I was like, that is awesome. Food court. Um, Sbarro is, like, behind us or something like that. So we'll see about that.
6:28
Uh, but the other big thing obviously, and, and Kelly, yeah, this is, this is one of these things where I just want to say to you, because you, you did Guessing Lines with me this past year.
6:38
Guessing Lines, uh, was a staple of NFL seasons that Chrissy Andrews and I, Mych Shmulka and I did for over a decade in podcast form and then at Vsion.
6:47
And a lot of pe- I mean, I think that was the single most common tweet yesterday. It lasted all day, all night long about- Yeah... i- is Guessing Lines coming back, is Mych Shmulka coming back.
6:56
And, uh, I will just say to that, I don't make those decisions, but, um, no is not the answer. How about that? Okay.
7:04
But I want to say to you, as I sh- as I'm sure we all do, Chrissy, I, I will speak for him as well, that you, you did a, a masterful job in, in his, uh, in his absence.
7:15
And if it's you and me moving forward, that'll be an awesome thing.
7:18
But obviously this is something Chrissy and I have done for a long time, but you, you were awesome and so it's, it's awkward that that was the most common thing yesterday.
7:25
I was like, I don't know if Kelly doesn't need to, to read that definitely. But just wanted to say to you, um, that we enjoyed it tremendously this past year doing it. I didn't take that any sort of way [laughs].
7:37
Okay, good. Good. I mean, obviously it's been better with Chris. I was still a part of it though when Chris was doing it with us, so I don't... [laughs] Yeah, no, no. Oh.
7:45
Unless I'm leaving and that- Oh, that's what I meant to... No, you're out... was my input, Gil, right now. Yeah. [laughs] You're out. No, no, no, no. No, no. We don't know. I don't know.
7:50
So I, the answer is not no, let's put it that way. Maybe. We'll see. I don't know. Yeah, and I, I, I think that there are, you know, a couple things, like, like you said, no ill will towards DraftKings.
8:00
They're w- they will still be a partner on this network. Mm-hmm. You will still see them, uh, brought up on this network. So I, I think that that's, uh, worth bringing up.
8:09
And, you know, what changes immediately from the user experience and audience experience at home? Really, uh, it, not much. It's really not much.
8:16
I think the way that you've been consuming Vsion, um, is the way that you're gonna continue to c- c- consume Vsion for the time being. Could there be changes in the future? Sure.
8:25
But, you know, I think for anything that anybody's possibly worried about today, no- nothing's going anywhere right now. Nothing's going anywhere.
8:32
At least, well, Kelly Bidlin, who apparently sort of resigned from Guessing Lines a moment ago. Yeah, I, I, I think I... No. Look, I resigned. You resigned me. [laughs] I did. Like, "Hey, we appreciated your time here.
8:42
Thank you." [laughs] I didn't mean it like... I totally didn't mean it that way. Um, I just was like, as they were coming in yesterday, I was like, "Oh, poor Kelly." Um, all right. So that is all great news.
8:52
It's wonderful news. And for those of us who have, uh, lived this for a big portion of our lives, it continues to be even more awesome news. I, I had to chuckle at the, uh, uh...
9:00
I think it's, I think it's Frank from Seven Hills. I'm, I wanna make sure I get this right. The, the rogue p- bring back prime time action tweet that- Yes... that went... [laughs] Yes, there was one of those.
9:10
He's like, "Hey, you guys wanna work five hours a day, twice a day? Sure." Uh, the rogue prime time action tweet. Yeah. That's very true. Uh, we will talk NFC North.
9:19
Speaking of our buddy Matt Brown, we will talk NFC North later, and the reason that we associate him with the NFC North is 'cause again, his factory hard drive is set to Joe Burrow, his, his... What does he call him?
9:28
Jesus H. Burrow, he calls him? Jesus H. Burrow, yeah. Yeah, so, uh, we'll talk NFC North as well. Uh, yesterday, uh, Royals won. That was good for our baseball bet. Not a lot of teams fell though, so we...
9:39
The last four wins have gone from 20th place to 17th to 14th to 11th to 9th, but still three wins behind the Tigers. Come on, Guardians, help a brother out. You know what I mean? Yeah.
9:51
Since we, since we had all that time together. Yeah. [laughs] You know? Geez. So, so you were so close. Royals 10 to four win. By the way, Bobby Witt Jr. is the best show in baseball. Yeah.
10:02
I know people think Shohei and Aaron Judge are. This dude is insane. So okay, so set this up for me, 'cause I didn't watch this game. He was... He had just a single to go for the cycle and got beaned.
10:12
He only needed a single, and he got beaned. And then, and then he had a m- he had a final at bat where he, I believe he was retired. Okay.
10:19
But the, he got beaned, and then it, it turned into a big, uh, kerfuffle, to use your word. Ah, yes. Yeah, and it, um...
10:26
And essentially if you were reading lips, uh, Terry Francona was like, "I would never, ever authorize a pitch." I'm sure John Boy will have something on this. Yeah. "I would never, ever tell one of my players."
10:37
He brought in Sal Perez just to listen to it too. And so, you know, it's your basic baseball kerfuffle that ends up in nothing. Well, he s- he said that post-game too. Yeah. I, I, I don't...
10:46
I actually thought his post-game comments were, they were, they were pretty cool to hear from a manager, where he was like, "Look, Bobby Witt's awesome. Like, I, like he's the future of this game." Yeah.
10:56
Like, I, I'm, I'm a fan of his. Like, I, the, like him up for the cycle, there was no way I was g- Yeah... I was intentionally calling for that. But we also know it does happen in baseball, right?
11:08
Well, that was a positive development. By the way, the two te- w- we're at one and two in tennis. The two tennis plays that sadly came after a numbers game didn't win. I have two coming up today, if you're interested.
11:18
Though we'll l- give those out in a bit. And the other thing I was watching while I was watching the Royals win 10 to four against the Diamondbacks, poor JVT and the Memphis Grizzlies Summer League team. Oh, man.
11:29
Oh, my God. By my count, they missed 37 free throws down the stretch. Yeah. It had to be the Heat too. Had to be the Heat. Of course the Heat won Summer League.
11:37
The Heat have stolen more money from JVT's pocket- Of course... than any team ever. That organization is ridiculous. Sorry, JVT. Felt for you, man. Drew Dinsick on the Olympics next.
11:48
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on a numbers game, live from Bar Canada here at the D'Giel Alexander, Kelly Bidlin on a numbers game. Un partido de numeros, for those of you, uh, listening in Spanish. Uh, Drew Dinsick joins us once again.
12:11
Whale Capper, Whale_Capper on Twitter, Deep Dive Podcast with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. Jay's got the accent, so he sounds awesome no matter what he says.
12:20
You're in that, uh... Are you in that, uh, that chat with Jay where he's, like, a huge Celtics fan and he goes crazy if you say anything mean about the Celtics? Yeah, Jay, Jay's a little different in that- Yeah...
12:30
i-i-in that chat, you know? Yeah. If there's any anti-Boston Celtics, uh- [laughs]... stuff brought up, it's a little... You see a little different Jay Croucher. Well- Yeah...
12:36
well, I, I don't know if Kelly was around at the time, but Jay went head-to-head with, I think, five or six guys in that chat- [laughs]... on Celtics prices pre- Oh...
12:44
pre-season last year, so he had an especially specific reason to grind that ax. He did. He did, absolutely. Yeah. There it is. [laughs] Um, by the way, tennis chat is very... It's, gets tough in there too, by the way.
12:55
Um, all right, so we're nerding out here with Drew about swimming, which is something that he did com- uh, swam competitively, and we want to get to a bet here.
13:01
And so just to review real quick, we're talking about just, okay, the progression from heat to semifinals to finals, that oftentimes betting opportunities will arise because someone will, let's say, overperform in a heat.
13:13
That will adjust the odds. Drew knows from his longer term data that's not right. Those odds shouldn't adjust. I'm sort of riffing here. Drew, you tell me if anything I'm saying is incorrect.
13:22
And so it can create- Well, for some-... opportunities like that. Also, you brought up the national thing. If you see, uh, we'll, we'll use Australia. If you see that they're just, I don't know, as a...
13:32
If you see one or two swimmers doing poorly in a heat, maybe you start to draw conclusions about their entire training as a, as a whole.
13:40
The other one that I want to ask you about, because you and I always nerd out on tennis doing the, uh, the Beating the Book podcast on slams, and we talk about, you know, the difference between best of threes and best of fives, just a sort of generality.
13:51
When, when men play best of fives in slams, it's gonna be harder for the underdogs to manifest, just because the longer you play, the more that the talent will win out.
14:02
In swimming, there are, there are longer events, right? And then there are sprints. I'm curious, does this... Do th- by nature of the length of the event, does that create more variance, the shorter, the more variance?
14:18
Absolutely. I think the, the v- the two events with the most, with the highest variance are gonna be, um, your 50 freestyle and your 100 backstroke.
14:27
50 freestyle because it's literally just comes down to how good was your reaction time off the block. Like, that literally could be the m- difference between gold and fourth.
14:36
Uh, and then the, um, in the 100 backstroke, it's similar.
14:39
Like, you get, y- your feet are in the water when you start, so the likelihood of a, uh, you know, a slip and a poor start is higher for backstroke, and that can create a little bit of, uh, uncertainty.
14:50
And similarly, you are kind of using your count and your, you know, your own, um, you know, uh, kind of, you know, mental space in order when to flip over for your turn in order to get the best possible turn.
15:02
And then, uh, you know, that, that, that makes things a little bit ins- more insane there as well.
15:06
And, you know, to make matters even more wild, in the 100 meter backstroke, you have, uh, four swimmers worldwide who are within a few hundredths of each other in terms of personal bests. Oh, man.
15:16
So there is basically a clear and obvious four-man tier in the 100 backstroke that's gonna make that the best single individual event of the Olympics, in my opinion.
15:25
You have, uh, USA's Ryan Murphy, who is the most decorated and the longest, um, uh, you know, kind of just in general. Like, uh, uh, he probably is, like, the...
15:35
He's, I think he's the senior member of our men's and women's teams overall. Like, he's just been to the most.
15:41
Maybe Ledecky is in the same exact category, but, um, you know, certainly Ryan Murphy's been to a number of Olympics and has won gold before at the 100 meter, 100 backstroke. And, uh, and he is your current favorite.
15:52
But I'ma bet against Murphy in that one. Um, you have, uh, you know, basically three other member, you know, three other, uh, contenders to choose from.
16:01
And, uh, I've backed in, I backed the, uh, the longest shot of these three, and it's the, uh, Greek Apostolos Christos, uh, Chrystou. Uh, don't know how to pronounce it, but it's the Greek backstroker.
16:12
It's pretty obvious when you look at the odds board. Um, he was 10 to 1 range when he was one one-hundredths off, uh, Ryan Murphy's qualifying time when he did European qualifying or, a- and that was June.
16:26
Uh, he's on the ascension. He's a younger swimmer, so you get a little bit more uncertainty just because he doesn't have the experience of being at the Olympics before.
16:33
But, um, you know, my- for my money, if I could only watch one final, it would be the men's 100 back.
16:38
It's gonna be unbelievably close, and, uh, uh, I think just in general having a long shot in that type of race makes sense. Wow. Apostolos Chrystou. Uh, what number- There we go... what number did you get him at?
16:49
10 to 1. 10 to 1? That's moved. By the way. I've seen four to one. Four to one? Four to one's still good though, right?
16:55
Four to one's still, uh, four to one is getting closer to fair, because as I mentioned, there's four guys who could, any of them could win.
17:01
But I would put him second choice behind Murphy, and it would be, like, basically neck and neck in terms of, you know, who, who should win that race. So I give him about, uh, a 33% chance.
17:10
I would give Murphy about a 33% chance. I give the Italian, uh, uh, about a, uh, 20% chance, and then the Chinese swimmer, b- uh, backstroker gets about the- Hey, uh-... the remaining probability...
17:20
Drew, any, uh, any idea why this isn't up at swimming? And I'm looking at you, buddy. Why, why isn't this up at Bookmaker, swimming? Why? They put up some really bizarre random stuff.
17:31
I don't know why it's not all up there, but the stuff that is up there, they're taking massive clicks and swings on. But- Wow... uh, they didn't just put everything up. I, I, I'm assuming it will all come. I, uh,
17:41
uh, yeah, you, you have a smattering of options right now that is like- It is a smattering. Yes... 35% of the total events in any given sport. I don't know why. Okay. 100 meter backstroke, Apollo, uh, Apostolos Chrystou.
17:53
Um, over 39 and a half, uh, golds for the United States. You got five minutes. Go anywhere you want. Yeah. Give us any bets you got. To make for us Um, okay, so the, uh, the most, I guess the, the, um,
18:09
the high likelihood stuff for Team USA in the swimming, uh, is the, obviously I think the most likely gold is Katie Ledecky in the 800 and the, uh, 1500 free.
18:20
Uh, I think, uh, you have a realistic chance to sweep the medley, uh, for the men and women, the medley relays. Uh, I don't know about the mixed medley.
18:28
That one's gonna be up for grabs, but, uh, but the 4x100 medley for the men and the women independently are both, uh, Team USA for me. Uh, and then it starts to get a little bit rough. That's only four golds.
18:39
[laughs] And, uh, and we are kind of dogs pretty much everywhere else outside of, uh, the women's 100 fly.
18:47
Uh, if you want a, a, a hot take there, um, we had a world record swim at US trials from Gretchen Walsh in the women's 100 fly, and then she was unable to back that up in the finals.
18:58
Uh, so that kind of goes to your, you know, did, did, uh, did, you know, does she have the experience? Were the nerves high?
19:04
What, you know, what was going on adrenaline-wise that got her there at the semis and then she couldn't do it again in the finals?
19:10
And I think that actually opens up the door for the other American woman, Torri Huske, who has been here before and is really, really quite close.
19:17
Uh, you know, these are the two fastest women in, of all time swimming this race, and they're both US and they're, they're not that big of a difference.
19:23
But because Gretchen comes in with the world record pedigree, then you're getting a, a really, really favorable price on Torri Huske. Uh, and so I can't pass up that one.
19:32
Um, and, uh, you know, fi- that's five likely medals in, uh, likely gold medals for the US in swimming. And, uh, we'll get probably three or four more, but that's about it.
19:43
So it's gonna be a, a lean haul for us in terms of Olympic swimming gold this year.
19:47
Uh, and I think, uh, you know, I'm hopeful that, uh, Caeleb Dressel shows up and kind of brings his sort of experience and pedigree to the table in both the 50 free and the 100 fly, although I think realistically he's only probably gonna win one of those.
19:58
Um, and, uh, I think ultimately, uh, uh, you know, the, the European swimmers look like they're gonna have themselves a nice little time in the 100 and the 200 freestyle, as well as, uh, um, Leon Marchand.
20:11
He's the guy I kind of have the most close eyes on because I have a heavy stake in France under gold.
20:18
They're up to 24 and a half here, and let me tell you, like, I have been trying hard to figure out exactly how we get to this number.
20:27
Um, I'm only projecting them right now to win, to b- to be likely gold in 18 events, uh, and then likely silver...
20:35
You know, and when I s- when I come up with a projection for gold medals, I'll give 70% weight to who I think will likely win gold, unless it's an event that I think is just an absolute slam dunk, then we'll, we'll just go, we'll go higher.
20:45
But, uh, but just generically, 70% if I'm projecting you first, 20% if I'm projecting you second, and 10% if I'm projecting you third.
20:54
And then summing across everything in all of the events, I'm only at, uh, 19 gold expected for France.
21:00
And so if they overperform to the tune of 25, I'm gonna be, uh, I'm gonna be, you know, completely blown away and out of a lot of money.
21:07
Uh, but, [laughs] uh, Leon Marchand in the swimming is a guy that matters a ton because I'm expecting him to win gold in the 200 and the 400 IM, uh, as well as, uh, two fly and, uh, maybe even another surprise.
21:17
So, uh, that's three potential golds in the pool for the French. Uh, and, uh, I think ultimately, uh, uh, that's gonna mean a lot one way or the other for them getting to that number. What was Marchand, 200, 400?
21:28
What was the other event for him? Two IM, four IM, two fly. I think he can win all three of those. Two IM, four IM, two fly. You got all that, Kelly? All this, of course.
21:36
Man, I'm still working on what an individual medley is, okay? [laughs] He's still work- It's like a vegetable medley? He's still working on omnium. [laughs] Yeah. Omni- yeah, yeah. Um, by the way, what is omnium?
21:46
Omnium is cycling. Uh, it's like- Yes... it's like the IM. You know the IM, they do one of each stroke in the, in the, in the pool? Yeah.
21:53
Well, the omnium, it's like they do track cycling, like the, the, the, the cha- the pursuit, the Madison.
22:01
Like, they have, like, all these other different, like, styles of track cycling and it's, like, one leg of each, and then you sum up your points. Oh. And you're basically, you're the best indoor track cyclist.
22:10
They have multiple styles of track cycling? I am so far behind. Yeah. All right. Uh, all right. All the swimming is week one- They should do a wheelie one... all the swimming is week one of the Olympics.
22:21
Uh, we'll get to track and field stuff with Drew next time as well. Um, 10 seconds. You wanna give a one non-swimming, uh, from the first week? Anything? Uh, Lisa Carrington.
22:30
If you ever find a market with Lisa Carrington in the canoe, that's better than winning gold. She is the best. Lisa Carrington in the canoe. Lisa Carrington of New Zealand, the best athlete at these Olympics. Wow. Okay.
22:41
Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it. Drew Ditzig, everybody. My man. Uh, we'll come back. Some NFC North talk next on The Numbers Game with Visa. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
22:54
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is The Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on Visa. Hour number two of The Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
23:02
visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Um, everybody's so kind on, uh, on Twitter. Really appreciate all the tweets.
23:14
Uh, we'll get to as many as we can, but there's just so many of them today. But everyone's, uh, super funny, [laughs] super funny with, with some of their tweets as well.
23:21
Um, Paul Sporer is still to come up with, uh, Major League Baseball. Uh, but first, I'm always pumped when this gentleman is kind enough to come on the show.
23:29
We kind of have gotten in this routine, he and I, um, and I say this w- with, with all kinds of gratitude for him. 'Cause w- he comes on the show quarterly during the football season.
23:38
We always do a regular season podcast at Beating The Book, uh, a mega pod during the regular season, and a mega pod during the playoffs typically as well.
23:46
And he always comes on pre-season because the dude has been doing an almanac for 20 years now. It is a pioneer in football analytics. He was inspired by Bill James in baseball. You can follow him on Twitter at achatznfl.
23:58
That's S-C-H-A-T-Z. It is the great Aaron Schatz, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac out now. 20 years, Aaron, what do you have to say for yourself?
24:11
Boy, man, I've been doing this a long time. I'm like a gray old man now. [laughs] But yeah, this is the 20th preseason book.
24:18
It's had three different names, but it's now the FTN Football Almanac, and it's everything people have, uh, known to grow and, and grown to know and love from my gang, which is all the witty writing, and the advanced stats, and the charting, and the fantasy projections, and the good team projections that are a little bit different from conventional wisdom.
24:37
And just, we, we just ch- stuff this thing chock-full of football goodness. I'm all ready for training camp. Yeah, it's... And, and I'm, I'm not just blowing smoke here.
24:45
Like, Joe Peta, who, who I'm sure you're familiar with, Joe Peta, who, uh, is an author himself, he texted me.
24:51
Mike Tanier, one of your old- one of your staples, of course, wrote, you know, among other things, a blurb about the Eagles, and he's an Eagles fan, and he sent it to me.
24:59
And Joe said, and I think this encapsu- uh, encapsulates it. He goes, "It's the best melding of witty writing and actually hardcore analytics there are."
25:08
And that alone, I think, is what makes your almanacs great through the years. That's what we pride ourselves on. I mean, to be perfectly honest, I mean, I love...
25:17
You know, I think our stats are, are accurate, and I think they tell you a lot about players and teams, but the thing that I stand behind most is that our writing is the most enjoyable of anybody in the analytics field.
25:28
Biggest thing that has changed over the 20 years would be what?
25:35
I mean, the biggest thing that has changed is charting stats, the creation of charting, and then the creation of the next gen stats from the NFL, which we don't have that much access to, but has completely changed analytics in the NFL itself.
25:50
My money was on the acceptance of analytics over the 20 years. No question, that has changed, definitely. Uh, has been a big change, especially, I mean, teams accept it more now.
26:03
Uh, beat writers, local beat writers really know their stuff when it comes to both scouting and analytics.
26:09
I think that, uh, national color commentators still leave a lot to be desired, except for a couple of them, like Greg Olsen.
26:15
But, uh, local beat writers are so much smarter than they were 20 years ago, and so it's a huge change.
26:20
All right, uh, l- I started, uh, let me start here with Washington because I mentioned them earlier, and obviously that's the team I grew up on. Um, number 32, Aaron, in DVOA.
26:29
And of course, I went immediately to, after I read your intro... By the way, quotes of the year are always funny as well, a staple of all of, of Aaron's almanacs.
26:37
Um, but I went right [laughs] to the Washington Commanders piece. Mike Tanier happened to write that one as well.
26:43
He was murdering Kliff Kingsbury throughout it, just abs- like, to the point where I was just laughing out loud. 32, though, man? Oh, come on. I mean, it's tough because you can't project rookie quarterbacks to be good.
26:58
Yeah. And there have been a lot of changes on the roster, but the overall in and out of talent seems to mostly be even. It's not like they've added a ton of talent. So, so much of it depends on the rookie quarterback.
27:12
How good is Jayden Daniels as a rookie? And the average likelihood is that he will be bad because that's just how rookie quarterbacks are.
27:20
Now, of all the teams with the rookie quarterbacks, and I would throw Indianapolis into that 'cause Richardson only has a couple of games experience, we are gonna be really wrong about one of them, right? Mm.
27:30
Like, it's very likely that at least one of those teams, probably just one of those teams, will be much better than we're projecting, but we have no idea which one. Yeah.
27:39
You, you actually put- point that out, surprise sort of revelations from the almanac. Chicago and Indy may be expecting too much from young quarterbacks right away.
27:48
One of the other things you noted, Atlanta, which, you know, f- flavor of the month, flavor of the year. Obviously, I get the positives. Kirk Cousins, um, obviously in a division where they can really do well.
27:59
But you say they're def- uh, you know, the, the almanac anyway, the defense ain't good. No, we have them as the worst projected defense in the league.
28:08
I mean, there's a couple of good pieces, primarily in the secondary, Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell, and I like this kid Clark Phillips, who's gonna be the other cornerback, but their front is really lacking.
28:19
There's, like, no pass rush. Um, there's Grady Jarrett, and that's about it, and we just don't project their defense to be very good at all.
28:29
And then the offense, you know, both the Jets and the Falcons, I feel like you cannot write in that Cousins and Rodgers are gonna be as good as they've been in the past when they are old men coming off Achilles injuries.
28:40
You just can't expect that. Yep, I know something about old men coming off Achilles injuries. That's for sure. I'm, I'm, so, uh, it's so fascinating reading it from your perspective.
28:49
Again, Aaron's proprietary stat is DVOA, a granular level of football, play by play, um, going all the way back now to 1979, which is, uh, just a feat in and of itself.
29:01
How far m- how fur- far further back do you think you can go? Is it getting hard? We're gonna have, we're gonna have 1978 next off-season. Wow. And then I'm guessing that's it. But you can't find the rest- 197-... right?
29:15
1978 is a very convenient starting point 'cause it's the start of the liberalized passing rules and the 16-game schedule, but also because before 1978, very few people owned VCRs.
29:28
I mean, in 1978, very p- few people owned VCRs, so I'm not sure if we're gonna be able to get all of 1978. But we'll get enough of it that we'll be able to do 1978 next off-season.
29:38
And there's no, I guess there's no way to ch- you can't cherry-pick a team 'cause you're doing it versus the rest of the league, so I was gonna say- Right...
29:43
the, the dream would've been to get back to the '72 Dolphins, right? Yeah, to get the 70, the '70 Steelers and the '72 Dolphins would've been wonderful to have. Yeah.
29:53
But the, the whole point of the '72 Dolphins is that they had an easy schedule, and you can't judge how easy that schedule is- Right... for 100 adjustments unless you have the whole league. That's right.
30:02
Um, okay, so I'm just, uh, things from the almanac that, um, might make people's heads explode. Again, Atlanta's defense, worst, dead last. New England's defense, on the other hand, pretty good. Yes.
30:15
We have New England's defense with the number three projection. [laughs] They were 10th- Man...
30:20
uh, ninth, sorry, ninth in the league last year without depending on turnovers, and they are getting back their best pass rusher and two of their three best cornerbacks who missed basically the entire season. Oh, man.
30:34
Okay. 'Cause we have some bets here. W- There are going to be a lot of 10 to seven games. Yeah. [laughs] Oh, no. Don't look at me like that, Kel. I'm not worried. Oh.
30:41
[laughs] Yeah, yeah, yeah, they're gonna lose a lot of sweet 13 to six games. Okay. Okay? Let me look back at you.
30:45
They have a hard sche- they have a hard schedule and a bad offense, but, I mean, the fact that they have the lowest over under number at a lot of books, I, I think that's an easy over. Hold on.
30:56
I'm gonna check back with Kelly to see if he's worried now. No? Still? No? No, not worried. Still not worried. Nope. Okay.
31:01
Uh, we have a lot of people here, um, not only on the network, but, but also guests that have come on the network who are very bullish on the Chargers.
31:09
This, Aaron, they say, is the year because it's a new head coach, uh, it's an easier schedule. There's a lot going in their favor.
31:17
The, the players that they lost, um, are actually good, uh, net losses, if you will, in the scheme of things. That's their point. Uh, but the schedule has a lot to do with it. You view them how?
31:30
First of all, we have them with an average schedule. I don't see how you can think the players they lost are n- a net positive. Keenan Allen and Michael...
31:37
I mean, they're left with Josh Palmer as their number one receiver. Give me a break. Like, this is a quarterback and a coach, and there's very little else there. There's an old pass rusher and a medium-aged pass rusher.
31:49
I guess Joey Bosa's not really old, but, um, they, uh... This is a rebuilding year. We feel very strongly this is a rebuilding year for the Chargers. We don't think they're gonna be very good.
32:01
That division is just sitting there for Kansas City to sleepwalk into the playoffs. Uh, we are not high on the Chargers this year at all. I'm definitely under 8.5.
32:11
[laughs] I'm laughing because all of these, like, Washington being 32, Atlanta having dead last defense, New Or- uh, New England having the ninth best defense. Yeah.
32:20
Like, all of these are kind of, like, stunning to some people, I think, our bets. I think there's red flags for people, for sure. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
32:26
I, I mean, the Chargers one, I, I haven't understood this whole time. Like, I'm, I'm completely with Aaron. Yeah. Yeah, anybody who scored a touchdown for them in the past decade is gone. [laughs] I didn't say me.
32:35
I didn't say me. It wasn't me who was on, but, like, a lot of people are. I mean, A- Aaron, who do you- I mean, are they better at right tackle? Yes, they look better at right tackle. Right. Exactly.
32:44
Uh, A- Aaron, who do you like, uh, who do you think is that second team in the AFC West? There doesn't have to be a second. [laughs] Why does there have to be a second team in the AFC West?
32:55
Kelly, there's only gonna be one team in the standings this year. [laughs] There's gonna be one team that wins more than seven games. Like, it's, it, it, that's it.
33:02
One team will win more than seven games, and that is Kansas City. Oh, wait, so, okay, well, let's juxtapose this against win totals here after the break.
33:08
But before we get to the break, 'cause this is interesting, you just, uh, getting it to the betting standpoint, but let, let's do one more team. The New Orleans Saints, um- I love the Saints this year.
33:19
You love the Saints. Yeah. 'Cause a lot of people think they s- Because- Yeah... a lot of people think they stink, and that's 'cause they're boring, and you don't think about them much, but they don't stink.
33:32
They're very, very average. [laughs] Very average. Like, incredibly average with a very easy schedule. And since we don't think Atlanta is as good as people think- I'm gonna take a-...
33:45
Tampa Bay is a little, we have Tampa Bay a little bit behind the Saints. We have the Saints as the favorite in the NFC South because they're boring and average. Boring is a crime.
33:56
I say it often about Washington teams through the years. I go, "The w- the worst thing is that they don't only stink, they're boring." Stinking and boring, the, you can't have those two things together.
34:04
But good and boring, I get your point. It kind of gets lost, the eye. I feel like there is money to be made on boring with the New Orleans Saints. That plus 340 to win the division is sweet. Ooh, hold that thought.
34:17
All right. Let's get some betting numbers with Aaron on the other side. Aaron Schatz's, by the way, it's like, again, it's like a Barry Gordy's Last Dragon kind of thing, a Neil Simon's play kind of thing.
34:27
Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac, the 2024 version. We'll tell you the easiest way to get it as well on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:35
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:51
The VSiN NFL betting guide is out now, and our all-new college football guide drops August 1st. Only VSiN pro subscribers get all the tools to prep for the college and NFL seasons.
35:00
Our experts provide profiles of every team with advanced stats, trends, and power ratings, plus best bets on futures and season win totals.
35:07
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35:20
The football special discount price expires on July 31st, so don't wait. Visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
35:30
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin here on the numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, from Barcanada, The Barrage, here at the D. Aaron Schatz, [clears throat] kind enough once again to join us for a second segment.
35:40
The 2024 FTN Football Almanac, or better said, Aaron Schatz's FTN Football Almanac 2024 is out. Aaron, if you could let everybody know the easiest way they could get a copy would be how?
35:53
Well, you wanna check out ftnfantasy.com, where we have all kinds of projections and optimizer tools for DFS, and our new stats hub is awesome. DVOA splits by charting categories.
36:07
That'll get you a discount on the book, but to find the book itself, ftnfantasy.com/almanac, or for the big physical copy with Travis Kelce on the cover, you want to go to Amazon and search for FTN Football Almanac 2024.
36:22
I'm getting a phone call apparently. Oh. We'll just ignore that for now.
36:26
Is that a rotary phone you have there, Aaron, or is that just a rotary s- sound on the- I'm gonna guess the ringtone That's just a rotary sound on my cell.
36:32
Man I was hoping for the same thing Yeah, I wasn't 'Cause I didn't realize I still had the ringer on. [laughs] All right. Um, okay, so we, you started to bleed into this before the break.
36:42
So you love the Saints to win the NFC South at plus 340 you said? Yes, absolutely. I feel that the Saints are the best team in that division in that they are boring and average, and therefore that is great odds. Okay.
36:57
Um, did I hear that you probably love the Patriots over season win total? Yes. Yes. Not, I wouldn't touch them to go to the playoffs, but yes, the Patriots over. At some books they're the lowest team.
37:12
At some points, some books they're tied with Carolina, and at some books they're the lowest team, and I think they're gonna win six or seven games because of defense, and because Jacoby Brissett gives them a higher floor than Drake May.
37:23
Yeah. I was just mentioning off-air, uh, Jerod Mayo with the, uh, the quote this morning about, uh, Jerod Mayo, courtesy of the, uh, Will Hill, by the way. Or no, Chris Felica, by the way, courtesy.
37:34
He said, uh, Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo on the team's quarterback competition, quote, "Coming out of spring, I think it's clear Jacoby is the most pro-ready guy we have."
37:42
Uh, no surprise that Jacoby's gonna, uh, start day one. Um, pro-ready, that's an interesting, uh, turn of a phrase. Okay. Pro-ready for a guy who's been in the league for nine years, sure, okay. Yeah. [laughs] Um, okay.
37:56
Uh, what else did you like? When you look, 'cause you're not a guy who's necessarily looking at betting odds every day. You're a guy who's immersed in putting out your almanac, for God sakes, and, and looking at stats.
38:06
What caught your eye besides those two? Uh, we like going under on the Bears and the Colts because of what I said about rookie quarterbacks, and Richardson is effectively a rookie, being hard to project.
38:21
And the Bears' defense, uh, while it was pretty good in the second half last year, uh, was very dependent on takeaways, and that tends to regress towards the mean.
38:29
So, uh, I think that the Bears, the Bears could be pretty good, right?
38:33
I think that there's a, a wide range of possibilities for the Bears, but it's more likely that they're gonna go under the eight and a half, and I feel the same way about the Indianapolis Colts, who by DVOA were not as good as their win-loss record last year, and the expectation for Richardson can't be that he's gonna be better than Minshew because we just haven't seen much of him yet, and he is effectively a rookie.
38:58
Hmm. Okay.
39:00
Um, we just talked here on the show before you came on about the NFC N- uh, excuse me, the AFC North, and I, you know, I talked about how Baltimore last year by your DVOA, I think they had the fifth greatest DVOA of all time, yeah?
39:14
Was that it? Yeah, regular season, regular season they were one of the top 10 teams. I don't remember exactly which number they were, and the 49ers were too.
39:21
But the Ravens, they just had these huge wins over really good opponents all regular season long.
39:27
So even with all that they've lost in the off-season, we still end up with the Ravens projected as the top team in the AFC, just a little bit ahead of Kansas City.
39:36
One of the great things in the almanac, I was reading the Cleveland Browns blurb, um, and it talked about, and I mentioned this, uh, a couple segments ago, about as great as their defense was, and it was an all-timer,
39:50
as great as the defense was, fifth-best defense you said of the DVO era to not lead the league in defensive DVOA, narrowly finished behind Baltimore, but they were the best by far against wide receiver ones,
40:00
that they should have been even better. I love these kinds of things, 'cause we obviously talk about this in baseball. What is sustainable? What is unsustainable?
40:06
And the Brownies defense, terrible in the red zone, even though they didn't let, allow teams a lot in the red zone, they were still, uh, they still had a terrible rate in terms of letting the other team score once in there.
40:18
Um, they had poor fumble luck, and they had so many more interception-worthy plays that they actually turned into interceptions. So it could have been that much better.
40:29
Does that factor into how you view the Browns this year? Yeah. I'm, I'm higher on the Browns than the market. Not by, like, a colossal amount, but I'm higher on the Browns than the market.
40:39
Y- you know, it's a little bit of a, another team where you don't know what...
40:43
There's a lot of we don't know what we're getting from the quarterback this year, between the rookies and Richardson, and the two guys coming off Achilles injuries. And then what is Deshaun Watson at this point?
40:53
I mean, I think you have to assume he's the bad quarterback of the last year and a half, but he might not be. They'll be better, they'll be better than eight and a half certainly if he's better than that.
41:05
But their defense is good enough that even if Watson is the guy from the last year and a half, they should beat the eight and a half. Okay. How about, you know, schedule? We, we talk about schedule.
41:15
Well, the schedule, c- first of all, we know what the teams are gonna be once the previous regular season ends. We know who the opponents are gonna be. We just don't know- Yeah... how it's gonna be sequenced.
41:22
Then the schedule comes out, and we in betting circles make a huge deal about this because, and, and you actually say this, uh, year after year in the, in the almanac as well, schedule matters.
41:33
It, if you don't think it does- Yeah... you're fooling yourself.
41:35
And the Bengals go from having the ninth hardest schedule of all time, all time being in the DVOA era of, uh, era of s- since 1979, ninth hardest of all time to projected to be the fourth easiest with Joe Burrow now in the fold.
41:52
How do you view the Bengals? Yeah. I mean, I think the Bengals [laughs] are pretty good competitors this year. This is a pretty good division. I, I have the Steelers lower, uh, than the, than the conventional wisdom.
42:03
I have the Steelers lower than the market. But I mean, the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns are all really good teams. They, uh, the, the Ravens and Browns have e- have, uh, average schedules.
42:13
The Bengals have an easy schedule 'cause they were last place in this division last year. So yeah, I like the Bengals. Here, here's the one thing about the Bengals. Jake Browning was so good last year- Yeah...
42:23
that they don't gain much by getting Burrow back. Interesting.
42:28
I mean, I would rather have Burrow than Browning as my starting quarterback because your projection going forward is clearly that Burrow has way more of a record of being that good, right?
42:38
Browning, it was probably, like, fluky. But it happened. So it's not like, it's not like, uh, the Chargers who are going from Easton Stick to Justin Herbert. Like, Browning was pretty good.
42:50
So the Bengals aren't gonna be that much better than last year, but the schedule's a lot easier.
42:54
Dan, and I should step in here, because the anti-analytics people who hear something like that, they only hear what they wanna hear, and their heads explode.
43:01
What Aaron is saying is the production of Jake Browning last year, forget that his name was Jake Browning. The production- Yeah... of his games was almost Joe Burrow level, if not Joe Burrow level.
43:13
So therefore, what is being replaced is that production. It was like when, uh, Kirk Cousins got signed by the Vikings. I used to say, "He's replacing Case Keenum production." Case Keenum production- Right...
43:23
that was the greatest year of his career. So in a one-year pocket, it, it might not mean a lot. As you just said, moving forward longterm, that's when it will matter.
43:33
But from one year to the next, he's the guy, that production to replace. We do that in baseball a lot, too. Uh, okay. Right. What they're pr- they're replacing is the best few games that Jake Browning- That's right...
43:42
will ever have. [laughs] Will, will ever have. And Jake Browning, very content to just be the backup in Cincinnati. He's like, "No, I'll stay right here and be a backup."
43:50
Okay, uh, Saints to win the division, Patriots over, Bears and Colts under. Anything else? Uh, Houston Texans, uh, and Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl. Oh. I like those odds. I like those odds.
44:07
I, um, uh, we have, uh, Houston is currently at, uh, 1600. We think it should be closer to, like, 1200. And, uh, Miami is at 2200, and we think that should be closer to, like, 1600.
44:22
What was your Houston prode- projection again? From what to what? What did you say? From g- the, the, the line is 1600, and I think it should be closer to, like, 12. Okay. 1200. All right.
44:31
Miami and Houston to win the Super Bowl. I would imagine- I mean, they're not our favorites. Right. They're not our favorite. But the value. But they have the best Value is value. Um, okay. Any award...
44:42
Do you even project awards at the beginning? Like, is there anybody there that you've seen? No. Uh, Brian Knowles and Cale Clinton will write an article at the FTN, uh, fantasy DVOA page about their award picks.
44:55
But I, I won't really talk about award, uh... I don't really do any projections of awards or anything. Okay. But you remain an awards voter, yes? I am. I am, uh, still an awards voter.
45:07
With the new Comeback Player of the Year Award rules, I'm, I'm all there for it. Yeah. You were the guy who tipped us off that they would change. We should've started with that, yes. Yeah. Yeah.
45:16
Should've started with that. That's right. Well, we did a whole thing on it. We did, yeah. Uh, Aaron, we will lean on you to, uh, sort of, uh, get your thoughts mid-season on w- which way you might be leaning on those.
45:26
You're always very generous with that. Yeah. Hopefully folks will check out the, check out the book, and we'll talk, I'll talk to you after, like, week four. My man. FTN Football Almanac.
45:34
Aaron Schatz, thank you so much, Aaron. Baseball with Paul Spoor next.
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