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Jul 23, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 23, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 23, 2025
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33:40
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is A Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Wednesday edition of A Numbers Game.
0:13
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me. Be joined a little later by Will Hill, talk some baseball with him. Our very own Jonathan Vontobel's gonna come in here and talk about college football.
0:25
We have a guide coming out, and if you are not already a VSiN Pro subscriber, get on it. Do it. The best thing that we do. It really is. How else do I get paid? Come on. It takes a million, it takes a million man-hours.
0:36
I can't prove that- [laughs]... but I'm just gonna say it takes a million man-hours to make that guide. And 900,000 come from Adam Burke. [laughs] Yes. Yes.
0:43
And it is, uh, it's something, something that, again, if you are a college football bettor, it saves you so much time. You don't know where these guys transferred, all the different stuff like that.
0:50
So again, get in on that. We'll talk to Jonathan Vontobel about the conferences that he previewed in this. If you want to join the show, @MattBrownM2, @KellyBidlin.
1:00
Let us know how we are just enriching your day because I feel like that's what all the tweets tell us. Oh, that's a good, that's a good one. Yeah. Enriching your day. Yeah. Yeah.
1:06
I feel, I feel like that's what everyone wants to tell us, is just how great we're doing [laughs] on Twitter. [laughs] That's- That's what, what Twitter was made for. That's right.
1:12
I had someone scream at me already this morning that I, uh, didn't give all my golf plays out on the podcast yesterday. Mm. Coming up in a little bit, though, on this show, I'll have them.
1:20
Before you guys do it, yes, I gave out one play yesterday, and yes, it lost, and it lost awesome. Here's the thing. Oh, you're fired.
1:26
Had it not been for the Dodgers', uh, bullpen melting down, not only was my under eight, it would've actually been the highest scoring game in Major League Baseball yesterday.
1:35
So not only did it not go under, it actually would've been the highest scoring game in all of the league, but it ended up being only the second-highest scoring game in all of the league.
1:43
Uh, yeah, the Pittsburgh Pirates decided they could hit for all of the sudden. Wow. Whoa. And yeah, yeah, and go out, score eight runs in that one. But the real headline of yesterday,
1:54
Logan Gilbert made no friends in Wisconsin. Logan Gilbert goes out, dominates the Milwaukee Brewers. Six and a third, 10 K's for him, and denies the whole state hamburgers. And that is really the lead story here.
2:10
12 r- 12 wins in a row gets you hamburgers in the state of Wisconsin, and instead the Mariners win one to nothing. At George Webb's. One to noth- yeah, you had to look it up, didn't you? Had to look it up again.
2:22
[laughs] Yeah, you had to look it up. I forgot, I forgot the name again. [laughs] One-nothing over the Brewers. A lone solo shot by Cal Raleigh, his 39th home run of the year, and you do not get free hamburgers.
2:36
The streak stops at 11. They do not make it a dozen. Uh, i- i- i- i- am, am I going over the top on this, but they've been running this promotion for 80 years, before the Brewers were even in town- Mm-hmm...
2:47
mind you, right? And they've only had to pay out twice on this? Does, doesn't that seem a little, a little silly? I mean, a, a 12-game win streak is, is quite the win streak. I mean, I know it is, but 80 years.
2:58
I mean, Kelly, round ball, round bat, you know? I mean, it's like weird things happen. It's, I don't know why you think [laughs] it's- 80 years though, man... a dozen, dozen wins, you know?
3:06
It's like you don't have five good starters, so you just gotta, you gotta- Be better, Brewers... you gotta roll your, your fourth and fifth guys out. They're gonna win twice. I like the, uh- Win streak right there...
3:14
I like the different promotions and how, how some of them are so easy to hit, and how this one, I mean, this is- Mm... far more difficult.
3:20
And it is, it's funny that this only comes up then however many a year, every, every so often that you even have a chance to get to that.
3:27
On a more serious note from a betting standpoint in all of this is the Brewers only allow Jacob Mirowski to go 64 pitches in this game. Yeah. And they had talked about limiting his innings and pitch count.
3:39
I just didn't know it was going to be so incredibly soon. They didn't even let him get out of the third, out of the fourth inning. They pulled him at three and two-thirds.
3:46
He had seven K's in the three and two-thirds innings.
3:49
He had not allowed a run, but apparently they have an idea of how much they're gonna let him go now, um, as we head down the stretch, and that is something that if we are bet- as bettors, right?
4:00
Gonna be really tough to bet the, to, to get the win market. That's a, that's avail- a bet available at a bunch of the books out there. Mm-hmm.
4:05
Because if they're going to kinda cap him it seems, it seems like in this kinda 65, 70 pitch range, you gotta get five innings in order to qualify for a win, you know?
4:15
And so a guy that strikes out as many as he does, you str- you, you rack up pitch counts, right? I mean, that's the other thing about all this, right?
4:22
Whenever you are, when you're getting a lot of K's, you're throwing a lot of pitches. And so, um, just one thing to take away from that, he did [laughs] average 99.5 miles an hour and topped out at 101.9.
4:35
Yeah, that's pretty good. That's pretty good. Now I, I, the, saw, s- I mean, that's, that's pretty big signal coming from that camp, right? Mm.
4:41
I, I, I, from the Brewers that, yeah, we're gonna, we're going to be reining him in and watching these innings going forward 'cause I did the same.
4:48
I mean, I pulled up that box score and I was like, "Uh-oh," like, "Did something happen here?" And nope, nope, it's... Here, y- I mean, he was pitching well- Yeah... and then he gets, he ain't that early.
4:56
I mean, that would just be a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. I mean, I guess to credit them, they did tell us they were going to do it, but for me, it didn't...
5:02
I'm, I was more assuming, like, "Hey, we're not gonna let this guy go, like, eight innings," or whatever. You know, it doesn't matter if he's cruising. We're not gonna let him go seven and a third or whatever.
5:10
But I, I just thought, you know, if you're, if you're going like he was yesterday against this Mariners team, I thought that, you know, you let him go, at least finish the inning, but that was not the case there.
5:20
Well, and it becomes interesting- Good night... 'cause it, it, I mean, if you were in a different place in the standings and stuff too, right? Like, [laughs] this would be a whole different...
5:28
I mean, we talk about this with Paul Skeens, right? It's a completely different story, uh, with where they're at in the standings versus where the Brewers are. Yeah, really interesting.
5:35
Yankees beat the Blue Jays five to four. Um, they get a home run in the top of the ninth inning to win that one.
5:41
Max Scherzer gives up four earned in five innings, including home runs to both Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm.
5:48
And with that, Kelly, is kind of the question that really is surrounding this Blue Jays team, and that's why they are already rumored, we saw yesterday just while we were on air, that they were interested in Mitch Keller.
5:58
Maybe not after that outing yesterday. [laughs] But, uh, there's... They, I think they understand where they're at. Max Scher- Max Scherzer's just not Max Scherzer anymore, right?
6:06
And, like, outside of, outside of Gausman You're looking at a rotation that doesn't really have anybody that you feel super, super comfortable with if you have to roll them out.
6:14
And, and so I think they are going to really be in the market for a starter. The only problem is, is there's not a ton of starters available, and the ones that are, are likely to demand a decent haul for them.
6:27
I mean, if you're gonna get a Sandy Alcantara, if you're gonna try to go after those two guys in Arizona and all the different stuff like that, like those teams aren't just gonna give them away.
6:35
And so Blue Jays, that was my only knock on them too, was that starting pitching.
6:40
And then certainly yesterday you kind of see that as, as, uh, Scherzer goes out and just does not look like the Scherzer of old as he is, you know, 57 years old now. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.
6:49
Getting up there and it becomes a little bit more difficult, for sure. Then we get the Dodgers bullpen melting down.
6:54
Like I said yesterday, uh, as, uh, I had the, the under in, um, the, the Pirates game in which they end up scoring 13 runs.
7:01
Would've been the highest scoring game of the day had it not been for this one and the Dodgers, man, looking... They are certainly leaking oil. I'm not, I mean, I don't, we're not worried about the Dodgers.
7:12
Blake Snell is on his way back. There's certain things that you can be looking up for with the Dodgers, but they're definitely leaking oil.
7:18
Yeah, I'm loo- looking forward to discussing this, uh, the best record odds we've got, uh, coming up here next segment, 'cause they are still the short shot there. But, uh, like you said, w- I mean, what is it for you?
7:28
What is the level of concern right now for, with this team? I, I mean, high, not that big a deal, they're gonna get ba- things back on track?
7:35
I mean, the thing is, is they do have just a lot of reinforcements, and then the other thing is we know that they will be certainly active at the trade deadline. And so not so much.
7:46
The only thing is, is if you listen to a lot of the people who are much smarter than I am when it comes to Major League Baseball, they are calling this a trade dudline as opposed to a str- Mm-hmm...
7:54
as a trade deadline, that there's just not going to be, unless someone just comes out of nowhere, there's, there's just not a lot of super high impact players available, right?
8:05
And so out of, outside of Eugenio Suarez, who continues to, to hit home runs for Arizona, there's just not a lot of guys that everybody's jumping up and down about.
8:12
I mean, some of these guys that we knew were going to be available are actually kind of sputtering. So it was like, oh, well maybe they were just way overperforming, and things are coming down the stretch here.
8:22
Rhino Hern being one of those guys for the Orioles who's just hit like crap here for the last month. And so we shall see, but the...
8:29
Let's hope there's a deadline as opposed to a dudline, but, you know- Yeah, seriously... maybe there'll only be a dudline.
8:33
What, what number would you, would I have to give you on the Padres to get involved in the div- in the division? It's getting close. Really? Okay. It's getting close. At 12 to one, is Matt Brown in?
8:44
I mean, 12 sounds about, 12 sounds about right. The thing is, is that if you look kinda like man for man as they sit, as they're constructed right this second, the Padres aren't that far off from the Dodgers.
8:56
Now, the Dodgers, again, have just a lot of people that are, that are gone, and they, they'll be coming back, and we'll see what's going on with all of that.
9:02
I mean, just, just Monday, uh, lose one of their best relievers, and looks like they're gonna have to be looking elsewhere for, for a closer. So there's all kinds of crazy stuff going on out there.
9:12
We thought that this was gonna be so incredibly easy, but that is not necessarily the case. Now, Commanders are gonna be a team that we're gonna be talking about a ton.
9:21
Uh, certainly we have an NFC East preview that we have coming up a little bit later in the, in the program as well. But Terry McLaurin wanted a new contract. He was very vocal about wanting a new contract.
9:32
While the ownership group has said that they will get him taken care of, Kelly, they have not yet. And with that, he did not show up at training camp.
9:40
Yeah, uh, something we kind of expected yesterday, but, uh, man, this is, this is a big deal. If all, all the...
9:47
Everything that happened last year with the Commanders and then some of the off-season moves that, you know, I think a lot of people view as additions to this team, I, to me, this is the one thing you cannot screw up, right?
9:56
Is that c- I mean, chemistry already, uh, between Daniels and McLaurin. I mean, you c- you have to have that type of wide receiver out on the field. So I... Commanders, get it together. You gotta get him to back in camp.
10:06
I- Yeah... what some of these teams are doing with star players I do not get. Raiders agreed to terms with Jamal Adams. By the way, he's still only 29 years old.
10:14
It feels like Jamal Adams has been in the league for about 15 years. Oh, it sure does. Yeah. But, uh, yeah, he's only 29 years old, so he reunites there with Pete Carroll.
10:21
T- uh, Tyron Matthew, better known as the Honey Badger to a lot of people out there, kind of came out of nowhere and retired at 33 years old.
10:29
He actually showed up to training camp and all of that, and I guess maybe he just decided his body couldn't take it anymore, Kelly.
10:34
Yeah, kind of reworked what some de- uh, s- uh, a deal at this off-season as well, so a bit of a surprise there. But I mean, I'm almost surprised we don't see that more often, right?
10:42
You try to go one more year and then show up to camp and it's, eh, I just can't, just can't do- Yeah... the things you once could do out on a field. It's gotta, it's gotta be, yeah, hard to take.
10:49
Or it just wasn't fun to- Yeah... you know what I'm saying? Like, to where it, like, used to be fun and you just, it actually started to feel like work and you're like, "You know what?
10:56
That, that, that lets me know-" Yeah... "this is probably done for me." If you're betting baseball tonight, wind blowing out in Wrigley, so check out, uh, check out the total, and that one is on the move.
11:05
I think it's already up to, to 10 and counting. Uh, rain is in the forecast in Atlanta, Colorado, and Tampa, so just keep that in mind if you're betting those games. We know how that goes. You get a delay.
11:15
The starter has to come out. We do much of our, most of our handicapping around who's gonna be the starter for these teams, and so sometimes they don't let these guys come back out of rain delays.
11:23
So at least check in on Atlanta, Colorado, and Tampa before you get those in your account.
11:28
When we come back, as Kelly Bidlin said, the most wins, best record in Major League Baseball when it is all said and done, there's a market for that. We will discuss those odds when we come back here on The Numbers Game.
11:39
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
A Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil. Kelly Bidlin here on the desk with me as The, uh, tweets again are, are coming through, and s- most of them are, are positive.
12:16
Most of them are, you know, the person looks amazing. Instead of this one, which is, "Jackson Dart's first pass in 11 on 11 drills is a pick six." [laughs] So there's, there's that.
12:26
Well- His first pass in 11 on 11 drills, pick six. At least we, uh, Giants front office is like, "At least we got out that red shirt line, uh, early."
12:33
And then one thing we'll talk about a little bit later, 'cause you and I were actually having this discussion off air as to whether Deion Sanders helps or hurts as him being your father.
12:40
Oh, I meant to bring that up to you. Yeah. As him bring- being your father. He's at Bucs camp. Yep. And, uh, because his son, Shiloh, is just trying to make the team. Yep. And so- Just saw him chatting up Bulls there.
12:51
Yep... so yeah, so Deion's just looming as his kid tries to make the team. It's always important to get down in Florida, get some recruiting in, you know? [laughs] Yeah, that's what he's doing, for sure.
13:00
Just, just not nearly as much anymore- Yeah... but yeah. But it's one of those things, like he's like...
13:04
I mean, you're, uh, you and I were wondering, is, is this a, is this a good thing or a bad thing to have Deion as your dad? We'll discuss maybe a little bit later. But we do have an actual connection.
13:12
He got out of the pool. He decided to dry off. Yeah. And, uh, we're gonna go with a, with a dry Mike. He even put on a shirt. Yeah. Good stuff here. Will Hill joining us back on the program. Will, how you doing, buddy?
13:22
Boys, what's going on? Well, look at that. Hey. Look at that. Crystal clear. [laughs] Can hear every single thing- Ready to go... that he's saying right there.
13:28
So just, uh, to recap everyone, or if you are just joining us, we'll just start from the beginning. There are a ton of day games in baseball today. The very first one, Will is gonna have some action in.
13:38
That's the Reds at the Nationals, Nick Lodolo and Michael Soroka. This is minus 125 Reds, plus 104-ish on the Nationals. Eight and a half is our total. How are you looking to play this one, Will?
13:51
Yeah, I'm gonna go first five under four and a half. You have to lay a little juice, $1.20, $1.25 at DraftKings, in that range, but I'm okay with it. I think that four and a half in the first five is a key number.
14:01
You wanna win on four. So many times it's three to one or two to two. And, uh, Lodolo, much better away from home, where he's got a 2.5 ERA on the road.
14:10
And Soroka's an interesting trade candidate guy, 'cause you look at the surface stats, you think, man, he's got an ERA over five. He hasn't pitched well, but the, uh, the advanced stuff is much more favorable.
14:19
Uh, a three or so expected ERA, two runs lower, 220, uh, expected batting average against. Uh, he really... He, he's, his struggles come second, third time through the lineup.
14:29
The first time or two through the lineup he's been okay. It's that third time that gets him. So he's an interesting trade candidate guy. I would imagine he gets moved here in the next, uh, week or so.
14:37
But, uh, I'll go under four and a half first five. Thought about going under two and a half in the first three because of Soroka's, you know, struggles, uh, second, third time through the lineup.
14:45
But I'll go under four and a half. I wanna win on that four. So, uh, I'm gonna go under here with a, a matinee game under first five. Yeah, this is, uh... Lodolo is one of those guys that
14:56
I really like watching him pitch when he's on. In, uh, last five starts, I mean, you're looking at a, at a, you know, surface stat of t- a 2.20 ERA, but a 333 XFIP, you know, 347 XERA. The guy's been really, really good.
15:07
So I definitely, definitely like that play with Lodolo there. Let's head to the team that, uh, man, little bit of struggles of late here for Detroit after they just set the world on fire in the first half.
15:19
You're gonna come back on 'em, though. Yes, they have struggled, but, uh, I like this pitching match up. Melton going for the Tigers, making his debut. I think it's just a spot start.
15:29
Uh, Tigers have, like, a stretch here of 13 straight games, uh, in, in 13 days after the All-Star break, so just trying to give their pitchers a breather. But he has got really good stuff.
15:38
Uh, you look in the minors, 75 innings, 101 strikeouts. Uh, shocker, he throws 100 miles an hour. Who doesn't throw 100 miles an hour these days? They, they all seem to.
15:46
[laughs] But, uh, you line him up against Falters, and Falters been respectable. He's been competent, but he, he is not gonna get you to swing and miss. He's not gonna blow you away. His stuff is very mediocre.
15:57
So I like the pitching match up here with the Tigers. Figure the Tigers, uh, maybe this is a time to jump back on 'em. You, it's always a dangerous thought exercise or an interesting thought exercise.
16:07
A really good team that's playing poorly and vice versa, when do you jump on, when do you jump off? Mm-hmm. Maybe this is a good time to jump back on the Tigers. I think the price is reasonable.
16:15
So I will take the Tigers here on the money line. Anybody that wants to tail Will there in that one, that is one of the early games as well, so do not dilly-dally around for that one. This one you can dilly-dally around.
16:26
A little bit later in the afternoon, Baltimore Orioles on the road at the Cleveland Guardians. This is Zach Eflin versus Slade Cecconi. Cecconi, Kelly, you like that? Yeah, I like it. I do like that. Ce- Cecconi. Yeah.
16:37
I don't know if that's how you say it or not. It could be Cecconi, but I, I like, I like to think that he's Italian. Probably. I like to think that he's Italian.
16:42
Um, this is Guardians minus 131 at home as favorites, plus 108-ish if you're looking at DraftKings numbers out there for the Orioles on the road as dogs. Eight and a half is our total here in this one.
16:56
Will, what you looking at? Yeah, I think you nailed the pronunciation, by the way. If he were a, a Giants backup quarterback, this guy would be like a celebrity to us. [laughs] A hero already, yeah. Play the wrong sport.
17:06
Uh, I like Cleveland here. They're starting to swing the bats better. Eflin, it's a guy I've liked to back in the past, control specialist, but he has gotten hammered this year. ERA close to six.
17:16
He's given up 16 homers in 60 or so innings. He has not been able to keep the ball in the ballpark.
17:20
So I got a hot lineup in Balti- in, in Cleveland, uh, a Baltimore team that's fading, so I'm okay with Cleveland on the money line. And, uh, I'll throw in an extra play.
17:28
I've been keeping an eye on these, uh, exact plate ex- uh, uh, exact plate appearance result. You can play these at DraftKings. Mm. I think FanDuel has them as well.
17:35
I, I think Caesars is, does have them from what I remember from when I was in Vegas. Uh, Jose Ramirez, plus 1,100 to walk in his first at bat. Now, Eflin does not walk a lot of guys, but, uh, Ramirez is so red hot.
17:46
The rest of the lineup there is a drop-off. To me, like, last night he comes up, two out, nobody on. I'm thinking, you know what? Pr- they should probably walk them, probably walk him, pitch around him.
17:55
They pitched to him, it's a home run. Uh, hit a home run in the first inning on Monday night. At, at some point, you just gotta let somebody else beat you.
18:01
So if he comes up, man on second, one out, maybe you walk him intentionally. If he comes up two out, nobody on, maybe you just pitch around him. Uh, again, I've been tracking this.
18:09
I know Friday night and Saturday night, his first at-bats, he did walk and cash these. I gave it out plus 800 on a, on Saturday, it got home.
18:15
So to me, I, I, I know Eflin's, again, a good control guy, but plus 1100 with how hot Ramirez has been at the plate, I think there's a decent chance they either intentionally walk him or pinch around him.
18:25
I'll take a shot at the 11-1. It's under, uh, exact plate appearance at DraftKings. Talking to our very own Will Hill, also host of Shoulda Bet More podcast, and Not the Will Hill over there on the Twitter machine.
18:36
Will, we just talked about this Astros team. If you look at the rest of the season, have the easiest remaining schedule of any Major League Baseball team. They will go at about 3:40 Eastern this afternoon.
18:46
Brandon Walter on the hill for them. We got Brandon Pfaadt, battle of the Brandons down there in Arizona. Brandon Pfaadt going for the, uh, the Diamondbacks.
18:55
This is Diamondbacks about minus 125, uh, at home, about plus 105-ish on the road for the Astros. Eight and a half hour total. Who you backing? Yeah, a lot of Brandons. I didn't even pick up on it.
19:07
[laughs] That was a good job by you. Can we get another Brandon to throw out the first pitch? Yeah, exactly. Brandon, Brandon Bass maybe- Let's do it... the former NBA player.
19:13
[laughs] I don't know what other NBA or what, what other Brandons we got. I like Houston. I know they have a laundry list of injuries, but doesn't seem to matter. This kid Matthews has come up.
19:22
He's th- hit three homers in the last couple games. Uh, they're missing Paredes, they're missing Alvarez, they're missing, uh, Peña. The list goes on. It just, it doesn't seem to matter. They seem to find a way to win.
19:32
It's a really good organization. I know they got a lot of crap for the buzzers and the trash cans, and rightfully so, but man, they just, uh, they're a good team. They really are. It's a good organization.
19:41
Pfa has been good his last couple starts, but he's had a rough season. Uh, I think Walter's pretty good. Also saw three and a half.
19:48
There's some juice on the three and a half team total for the Astros, but man, three and a half, uh, Arizona's got a, a lousy bullpen. Pf- Pfaadt has not been good this year.
19:56
You know, y- you're gonna get your nine at-bats 'cause you're the road team, so I wouldn't mind laying the juice with the over three and a half for the team total, and I'll just, I'll take the plus money here on the Astros.
20:04
I'll just... I, I'll pick them to keep winning. Again, if it's, uh, tied after five or six and you go into the bullpens, that's advantage Houston, because Arizona's bullpen's been a disaster.
20:13
Uh, Houston came back rowdy again last night, so I'll take Houston here plus money. Yeah, I like me some Brandon Walter as well. I like that people look at those surface stats and don't look at the deep stuff.
20:20
I mean, ERA of 4.97 over the last five, but a 2.35 xERA over the last five. So Kelly, he's supposed to be better than what has happened out there on the field. Oh, that's how that works. Yeah. Got it. Okay, great.
20:31
Expected. Expected. Yes. Yeah. Yes, expected. Yeah. See if it actually happens. Yeah, yeah. Uh, Will, switching to some football. I got one, one sentence text from you. High on Dallas, low on New England.
20:40
Explain yourself, sir. There you go. I think that says it all. I'm, I'll start with Dallas.
20:46
I, I think, look, for, for the circus they are, and it is a circus, you got the owner taking shots at Parsons and Dak, which was just bizarre, and it's just, it, it's ridiculous at this point.
20:55
Uh, nobody liked the coaching hire, which I understand. Uh, Dak is 76 and 46 career as a starter. He's a really good player at the most important position.
21:02
And if you're just looking quarterback, playmaker, uh, def- defensive player, who's got, like, the best trio? It's hard to do better than Dak, Lamb, and Parsons.
21:12
And I think Pickens is gonna come in, uh, used to a run-heavy scheme. He's gonna come in a more pass-friendly offense, the best quarterback he's ever played for. Uh, he, he's got Lamb to take the attention away.
21:22
I think Pickens is in for a big year, playing for a contract on his best behavior. Uh, I think they're undervalued at seven and a half. I think they're undervalued plus 190 to make the playoffs.
21:30
Schedule's not really easy, but they do get the Giants twice, the Jets, the Panthers, the Raiders. I wouldn't be shocked if they bounce back and, and win their, you know, nine, 10 games.
21:38
Remember, before last year, uh, 11 and 5, 12 and 5, 12 and 5. This was a really good team. And just quickly on the Patriots, I'm not a believer in McDaniels. I'm not a believer.
21:47
They don't really have any blue chip talent on offense. And look, I like Vrabel. I think he's a good coach. I think it's a solid hire. But I think we forget, uh, okay, he pulled off a couple upsets the 2019 playoffs.
21:58
Since then, one and done in the playoffs, '20 and '21. 2022, they fell apart. They lost their seven, last seven games, missed the playoffs after starting seven and three. And then '23, they missed the playoffs.
22:07
I think it's a little bit, uh, just misguided how everybody loves Vrabel here. So I think New England might be a year away. I like their under.
22:15
Find him right here on VSiN Shoulda Bet More podcast @NotTheWillHill over on the Twitter machine as well. Will, appreciate the time, man. All right, appreciate it, guys. Thanks for having me. Yeah.
22:25
Wa- watch out walking around there in New England, man. Man. Ooh. Yeah. What's going on there? Hour number two, we'll come back, we going country club. Let's go.
22:32
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:53
Numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil. Joined here on the desk, you know him, you love him, he is following us here on this show as it is, Jonathan Von Tobel. How you doing, buddy?
23:07
They know me. Yes. That's a factual statement. You know, listen. [laughs] There, there are people that love you. There you go. You know, same with me. You know, it's, there's 20/80, but it's fine. That's right.
23:15
It doesn't, doesn't really matter. Um- I love what's going on on Twitter right now. Like, we were just doing all these tweets of, like, first pass of the seven-on-seven interception- Oh, yeah...
23:23
whatever, and all this stuff. So now here's a, here's a great... Third play of seven on seven, Josh Allen to Elijah Moore for a short touchdown pass. Now we're getting- Oh, yeah... actual play-by-plays of seven on seven.
23:35
Like, third play to Elijah Moore for touchdown. Hell yeah. I'm already, I'm already in. Uh, I already sent into the, uh, Money Moves group chat here a rough day one for the Colts passing offense tweet.
23:46
Uh, so fired up for all of this, especially with quarterback battles where everything's gonna be hyper-analyzed. So yes, fire me up for training camp tweets. I can't wait for the horizontal cam footage, right?
23:56
Shaky cam of the cell phone. It's gonna be great. Can't wait. It is the great thing that we get the, the confirmation that Russell Wilson is going to start for the Giants, which I think everyone knew anyway.
24:05
It followed by the first pass in 11 on 11 was a pick six by Jackson Dart. [laughs] So it's like- You know what's funny? So you mentioned that, like, we all knew. That market was actually up on, like, Sunday, Monday.
24:15
It was m- you know, it was minus 1400, but still, like, you can make the case. Like, that's a information-based event. Yeah. Draft betting, you love that kind of stuff. Yeah.
24:21
Minus 1400 was pretty cheap for something that I think we all expected was gonna be the case.
24:25
Yeah, and, and you know, the, you mentioned the Colts, and you follow the Colts more than anyone Comes through today that, yeah, they were rotating first team reps, but that Daniel Jones was getting more of the first team reps than, than Anthony Richardson was.
24:35
So I don't know if that's a tell or not. I don't know how you feel about where that race is going to go, but at least today he was getting more reps at, at, under the first team ones. I, I mean, I think...
24:44
So we talked about this the other day, and I actually kind of went on an impassioned rant about this, 'cause my whole point was like, "We're really doing this?"
24:49
Yeah, I thought it was very similar to last year's dynamic with Joe Flacco, where everybody was clamoring, calling, screaming for Joe Flacco to get the job, to play. He's gonna make them so much better.
24:58
And then he started two games, he went 0 and 2 straight up. And against the spread he was completely awful, and then they had to go back [laughs] to Anthony Richardson after they benched him.
25:04
I think it's the same thing here.
25:05
Daniel Jones is a fine athlete, but the way that he's being spoken about, like he's going to accelerate this team, when the reality is he has a penchant for holding onto the ball, takes too many sacks.
25:13
Also, is not very dynamic as a quarterback himself. I think that Richardson is the deserved favorite to win this job. They want him to win the job. He was their fourth overall pick.
25:21
So I think week one he's their starter. Will he play all of the games? That's another question. Coming through just now, just, and we'll get into college football. But, uh- Just throw picks in...
25:29
don't read anything into Spencer Rattler getting all of the first team reps today. It, uh, they came out and Tyler Shuck will get them all tomorrow.
25:36
So it's basically they're just, they are not doing it by practice, they're just gonna rotate them by day down there- Okay... in, in New Orleans. So that's what's gonna go on.
25:44
Can you imagine if they, [laughs] if they go with the Rattler? D- I mean, like- I-... just, just- You know what it is. Like, let's just go...
25:49
just sl- just sling the Rattler out there, and like the, the fan base goes, "W- We saw this last year." Yeah. Like, what is there to be excited about?
25:55
Well, and then after the Carr news, I mean, the market really freaked out for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and, and Shuck really got up there on the board.
26:02
Um, which was, again, another oddity just considering that, I mean, they were throwing around shoulder surgery. [laughs] So I wasn't sure the Carr was even gonna be there. Yeah.
26:08
But the market thought, "Nope, that's worth it." So he's one of the, not short shots- Good... but he's up there for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
26:13
So I say this often, and I think that you would agree as well, that perhaps of all the betting guides that we do, maybe the college football one is the most valuable considering the transfer portal these days, how many different, how many different shuffling there has been in the different conferences, and all of that.
26:27
You did the Mountain West. I do wanna start out with the, with the Big 10, however, because you have been attending some of the Big 10 festivities. Uh, I have not. Stormy and- No?...
26:34
Ortega have been, so they're out there. Mm. We got a couple of news and nuggets that we're gonna throw out today. And then Stormy on Thursday, which is tomorrow, uh, is going to be there.
26:41
I'll be here solo, so we'll be getting some live footage from there. But I- Uh- I w- I'm the man on the ground here in this dynamic for the Big 10. You're holding the p- you're holding down the fort. Correct. Correct.
26:49
I got you, with all that. Well, we did get over there and get a, a sound bite from Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola as to, uh, how things are going this off-season. Dylan, last year, so much hype, expectation.
27:01
You're this five-star recruit coming into Nebraska. Have things calmed down a little bit? What's this off-season been like for you heading into your sophomore year? Um, it's actually been the opposite. It's- Really?...
27:10
probably ramped up a little bit, honestly. Um, flashes of, of, of winning in last year and, and Nebraska's excited for that.
27:19
And so we just wanna keep the train rolling, use the momentum that we've created in winning the bowl game, and then, um, go shock the world. Looking here. Uh, Google Machine tells me he has a $2.3 million
27:33
valuation for, uh, NIL. Yeah. I, so I will say, first off, to get the joke out of the way, I do like the thought of shocking the world. Yeah. Like somebody in Thailand's like, "Nebraska won nine games?"
27:41
[laughs] That's insane. Uh, I do think highly of Nebraska, though.
27:44
You, Stormy and I kind of have this, uh, show bet going on because I think Nebraska, and to invoke a Big 12 team, Kansas State, mirror one another to a certain extent.
27:52
Where Avery Johnson takes over the K State job last year, very popular Heisman selection. A lot is expected of them. They fall short, struggle on the road. He's fine, but not really dynamic.
28:02
And then same thing with Dylan Raiola. Fine, not great. Uh, but as I keep calling it, the rule of three. Matt Rhule in his third year of these programs, man, has done a really good job. Mm.
28:10
Uh, he has won double digit games in each of his third years at, uh, Baylor and Temple.
28:14
Uh, maybe the expectation here with about 16-ish returning starters, depending how do you gauge them, um, that should maybe be the case. A schedule that finally doesn't have a team like Ohio State on it.
28:24
I think that this is a Nebraska team that can make, uh, a little bit of noise here in the Big 10.
28:27
I thought that last year they fell short of expectations, but now you have Holgorsen calling the offense for a full off-season, getting it implemented, Raiola in that system now for a longer time.
28:36
I think that this sets up pretty nicely for this team. So I thought it... Minus 130 and over seven and a half, relatively cheap price. And just look at the start of the schedule.
28:43
Uh, all of these games, outside of that opening game, which is gonna be at Arrowhead, all at home against all of these opponents, especially the tough ones.
28:49
You gotta make some tough trips, including Penn State, but this is a really manageable schedule for a team that has a lot of continuity. Houston Christian. Yeah. On there. That might be a challenge.
28:57
Yeah, Houston Christian is on there. It wouldn't shock the world, but maybe would shock the betting market. 40 to 1 just to win the Big 10. Yeah. So 40 to 1 just to, uh, just to win the Big 10.
29:05
I don't think they're gonna win the Big 10. Yes. But, you know, in grabbing one of those at large bids potentially, uh- Mm-hmm...
29:10
in a college football playoff setting, if you take care of business and get a pelt on the wall like a Michigan, I, I think that would help you out in a big way.
29:15
Three teams grouped up top in Ohio State at plus 195, Penn State at plus 250, and Oregon at three to one. Jumps all the way out to Michigan at 850, and then everyone else 25 to one or longer.
29:25
Is it gonna be one of those three teams? You putting Michigan in the mix there. Uh, I, I'm not really big on Michi- Mm. I just don't, I don't know what's gonna happen at the quarterback position.
29:31
Obviously you have the, uh, Balihooed recruit coming in. You also have Mike Keene coming in from Fresno State, so I'm not really sure how that dynamic's gonna play out.
29:38
To me, I, I keep making this case, if I slapped- Penn State's roster into an Ohio State uniform and just said, "Look at this team," that would be the highest ranked team in the Big 10. Mm-hmm.
29:48
That would be the team that is favored to win the Big 10. I'm high on Penn State. I don't know how you can't be given everything coming back, especially a quarterback.
29:55
We know that this team under James Franklin does not lose the games that they should not. I think this team's really, like, barred for a very big season.
30:03
So I think that there's some value in betting them to win this Big 10 for sure. You did take on the Mountain West Conference for the guide. Yeah. Again, that thing will be out the first week of August.
30:11
The favorite in that is Boise State, then goes to UNLV at 550, San Jose State at seven to one, Fresno State at nine to one, then jumps all the way to 16 to one. Everyone else is that or longer.
30:21
As you dug in, what was the most interesting thing that you came out with? I imagine that you fell in love and/or out of love with some sort of team as you did the research. Yeah, absolutely.
30:31
So I think first off, the dynamic for the Mountain West is pretty interesting. I told this to Mike Palm the other day on his show Bet On Chicago, which is I think the Mountain West as a whole is worse.
30:39
I actually think Boise's worse, but then I think that subsequently leads us to where we were last year, which is Boise is the odds on favorite and the rightful favorite to do so. Mm-hmm.
30:46
Even though Boise took a step back, so did the entire conference. I think there's one team that really intrigues me, which is Air Force. They're 16 to one to win the Mountain West Conference.
30:53
They have a ton of returning production coming back. But let's go back to last year really quickly. Started the season off poorly. I believe it was a one in seven start.
31:00
They want to cover their last four games bet, and that offense- Mm-hmm... really took off when you look at it.
31:04
Uh, if you talk about the last four weeks of the season, 302 yards, 29.3 points per game, 4.6 yards per carry.
31:10
Eight starters are back on this offense, and Troy Calhoun has done such a good job with teams that have returning production. I think Air Force is really loaded up to have a very strong season.
31:20
Now, their schedule does have some oddities to it when you look at it, especially obviously the two rivalry spots- Mm-hmm...
31:24
and Navy and Army, and then where they fall on the schedule in comparison with some conference battles. But I'm a big fan of Calhoun. I think this is his 19th year [laughs] now leading Air Force.
31:33
And when you're talking about some of these teams I think are a little bit weaker at the top, UNLV having only five returning starters.
31:38
San Jose State I think is, uh, probably the second-best team in the Mountain West, and then Fresno State, uh, breaking in a new staff and a, a new regime.
31:46
I think Air Force at 16 to one, there's worse shots to take here on this board. Uh, I, I think Air Force is a pretty solid shot. I, I like that because this is...
31:55
It actually takes my question away from me there was, if I give you free 100, 100 Matt bucks- Yeah, sure... where would you put it? It seems like it'd be Air Force at 16 to one. Yeah.
32:01
It would, it would actually be Air Force at 16 to one. Now, you get into the trouble of, right, as you always talk about with these, if it's 16 to one, they're gonna still...
32:08
Even if they play, if everything else plays out- Mm-hmm... as you expect, they're gonna be in Boise playing a Mountain West Championship game. What's really the hedge of an opportunity there?
32:14
But I do think there is value in that this Air Force team may actually quietly be the second-best team in the Mountain West. Uh, real quick, you mentioned UNLV. They are the second shot there.
32:22
Lots of buzz obviously here in town about the season last year. You think that they're gonna fall off this year?
32:27
I mean, I think they're gonna fall off in the sense of, man, they won 20 games each of the last two years- Mm... under Barry Odom. Now Dan Mullen comes in. There's only these five returning starters that we talked about.
32:35
Uh, obviously, Jayden Thomas, their leading rusher, is their best player coming back. But if you even look at them defensively, for example, Marcal McDuffie was named to the preseason Mountain West team by the media.
32:44
He missed a ton of time last year. [laughs] Like- Mm-hmm... he's really the only st- like returning piece for a defense that was great, opportunistic.
32:50
I just think it's a natural progression backwards when you're talking about a team that has this much turnover, a brand new coaching staff, new offense, new defense, and all those sort of things.
32:59
So I just think like, hey, I think eight wins is probably more fair for this team. Uh, and their win total is sitting right there at eight and a half. They gotta go to Boise. They gotta go to Laramie.
33:07
Reno's never going to be an easy walkover, especially as a rivalry spot. I, I figured under eight and a half was a little bit more fair. Cam Ward just threw a fade in practice. I just want you to know.
33:16
Does it complete it for a touchdown or? Yeah, it was a, it was a great, it was a great pass, apparently out of bounds. Like, there's the, the- Ah... receiver couldn't stay in bounds, but- Not his best... you know.
33:23
We're getting the play by play here, guys. He's Jonathan Till. We'll stick around for another 15 minutes, and you'll be able to see him for another two hours. Appreciate the time, buddy. You got it.
33:30
We'll put a bow on this one when we come back. [upbeat music]
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