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Jul 24, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 24, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 24, 2024
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We don't care how you're taking us in. We just appreciate that you are any which way.
0:20
Any way, uh, among those four, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, live from Bar Canada here at the day. Yo, yo, yo. It's happening. Not much. How's it going?
0:31
I'm good. You said you had the best night of sleep you've ever had on a weekday here? [laughs] Probably. You're well rested? Probably, yeah. All right.
0:38
Fell, fell asleep on the couch at, at like 6:30 or 6:45 last night, and then did the whole, like, slept there for, I don't know, three hours or something. When you woke up, what was your first thought?
0:49
Oh, like, I was, I, I, like, I'm always scared. I don't know about you, but when you wake up on the couch, I'm like- Oh, yeah... "Oh, God, how many hours have I slept here?"
0:56
'Cause I don't know about you, I don't get good sleep if I fall asleep on the couch. It's like- Doesn't count as good sleep. Yeah, it doesn't count as good sleep. It's not horizontal sleep. Not horizontal sleep, exactly.
1:04
It's all man sleep. So I was, I woke up and it was like 9:45, 10:00, and then I was like, "Ah, I'm just gonna go to bed-bed now." Good for you, man. So I was up for nine hours last night.
1:12
There you go, ladies and gentlemen, we're done. Thanks for listening. Um- [laughs] That's it for today. [laughs] That's all we got.
1:17
Uh, we actually, uh, Kelly and I are gonna talk a lot of football today because I feel like we have, uh, we have emphasized the NFC East and the AFC North for whatever reason on this show.
1:27
And by the way, congratulations to me for getting AFC North correct this time, 'cause apparently all week I've been saying NFC North. Wait, I mean AFC North.
1:34
So because of that, we're gonna talk NFC North today and NFC West. Yes. Why don't we do that? Why don't we get- Yeah... through some divisions. Um, also Jason Weingart will stop by, Sean Nejad on golf.
1:44
Um, I have the old, uh, Roku going, uh, Kelly, now. You know, I'm, I've, I've gotten rid of cable. Yep.
1:50
And I pay probably triple or quadruple every single streaming service, so I'm probably paying, you know, thousands of dollars a month for all I know. It's absurd, yeah. It's ridiculous. I, I'm, I miss cable, by the way.
2:00
I'm, I'm not one of these people like, "Oh, thank God I got rid of cable." I'm like, "No, can I get it back, please? I wanna go back."
2:05
I'm that guy that's paying for everything and c- and can't imagine, like, doing it otherwise, which is terrible. Like, where I have every streaming service- How much do you really watch, though?... and, and cable.
2:15
Nothing. Like, nothing. Right. It's sports on cable, and then you watch the streaming services. So the Roku, that populates at the top, like, everything that you've, I guess, watched.
2:22
Every time a baseball game's on, it lets me know, "Hey, there's a baseball game on." Um, you know, it, election cycle, there's all kinds of news, uh, stations that come on.
2:31
By the way, I should read you, like, some of the election stuff. That's how I know we were pitch perfect on the election segment, because now we're getting both sides [laughs] who saw it all differently. It's so great.
2:39
I'll read them coming up, some tweets. Um, but, a- and then of course you have your random Murder She Wrote, Kelly, because apparently I watched Murder She Wrote a couple times, and so it's up there. [laughs] Murder.
2:50
You would. [laughs] She Wrote. Um, yeah, because I grew up in the '80s, and it looks like it's 1955 when you're watching it. Yeah, I know, it does. I'm like, how is this possible?
2:58
Isn't it amazing how some movies and shows, like, just quality wise don't hold up like that? So the other thing that was up there was VSiN popped up, 'cause I guess I've watched VSiN enough, couple few times, right?
3:08
So it pops up there. And so last night I decided to turn on the old VSiN, and, uh, VSiN Tonight was on with the, uh, the great Wes Reynolds and Matt Humans. And, uh, can we start with a little sports talk radio here?
3:20
'Cause they did something. When I tuned, tuned into them, um, they were doing... So by the way, Wes Reynolds, uh, just an encyclopedia of all sports knowledge, and, and beyond sports.
3:28
If I say to him, "Wes, what's the best Gap Band album?" He will immediately shoot, uh, shout back, "Gap Band 5, Gil. Of course, everybody knows that." I hope you know that. Uh, Matt Humans, medical marvel. Yes.
3:40
Medical marvel, Matt Humans. Um, not only putting as much fast food into his body as humanly possible, but also, uh, has yet to locate the sunscreen aisle in your local d- your local drugstore.
3:54
So we're gonna, we're gonna- [laughs] Dude, dude golfs every day when it's 110 degrees out. Just sunscreen maybe? Yeah, yeah.
4:00
Anyway, the New England Journal of Medicine should write a whole, a whole chapter on Humans called, like, The Humans Exception or The Humans Conundrum, and just do a whole profile. It's amazing this man is standing.
4:09
Anyway, they did a who had the better golf, who has had the better golf season? And this is stupid of us that I didn't ask you this, you know, Monday morning.
4:18
Is it Scottie Scheffler, who won the Masters, who obviously leads in money made, over 28 million this year. Xander over 15 million this year. Scottie's won six tournaments, Xander's won two.
4:35
Or is it Xander Schauffele, who has gone from the guy that all of us are like, "I can't believe you're betting on Xander Schauffele.
4:41
He never wins anything big," to the guy who has now won back to back, not back to back, but pardon me, two majors this year. There was a US Open in between, pardon me.
4:49
Finishing with a 65 in both final rounds of his winning majors, which only Jack has done before, which we talked about earlier this week. Who has had the better year?
5:00
And let me, before you answer, Kelly, 'cause I see you poring over and trying to come up with your answer here, I believe Wes's conclusion was whoever, if someone wins the Olympic gold, they're the winner.
5:12
That will be the determinant. Hmm. Well, I think we need to include FedExCup playoffs in there then too. And, and Scottie Scheffler leads in FedExCup points. Yeah. And you will have to include the playoffs, yes.
5:22
And we'll have, I mean, yeah, we'll have three events of the playoffs. Um- Scottie with almost 6,000, and Xander currently over 4,000.
5:29
I will say that I have a relatively easy, I think it's a easy answer up until this point, but I think that there are Olympics and playoffs, that it's tight enough that I, my answer could change when it's all said and done.
5:41
Wow, you think it's an easy answer? It's Scottie Scheffler still. Okay. I, I, I mean, I mean, the six wins on the season, I, it, I, it's two majors versus one in favor of Schauffele. I get it.
5:50
But then there's no other wins for Xander o- on there.
5:53
Um, and when you're looking at where, where Scottie Scheffler has won at, this is where new schedules Um, on the PGA Tour do change things in the amount of elevated events that he won this year, which are near major-like fields that you're playing in, the best of the best.
6:13
I mean, he won one, two, three, four, four elevated events I believe is the count. No, five elevated events along... No, four along with the Masters. So, uh, that's good enough for me. Obvi- That, that, that is,
6:27
it- that is better than Xander Schauffele's two major wins. Okay. It's interesting. But it, it's tight enough. Because we, because we place such emphasis on majors. Yeah. Right?
6:37
J-Rod and I talk about this in women's tennis, right? Iga wins a billion matches and a billion tournaments, right? But hey, it's still only five majors, which is right on pace with Serena.
6:46
It's like, "Oh, she's only won five majors." Yeah. 'Cause people put such an emphasis on the majors themselves. I, I, I'll... I don't wanna take it...
6:53
I always, I always start sentences with, "I don't wanna take anything away from winning the Open Championship," but like- However... like there's just, we went over it Monday, right?
7:03
Like it is, there are some things like that you, there's some details in that tournament every year that you need to be aware of going in and going out of, and I think it applies to anybody that's betting the 3M Open this week as well, is what can you take from last week and bring over to this week?
7:19
What Billy Horschel did at the, in the Open Championship, is that sustainable going forward? It's not really something we've seen from Billy Horschel that much this year.
7:28
So how much of the luck factor does come into play?
7:31
And I don't, I think Xander is a little bit of an exception to that 'cause I think he would've been there regardless of the conditions, but the conditions did set up a, a, uh, it set up a leaderboard where there were pro- there were less big names to contend with than you would've seen at the US Open PGA or the Masters.
7:49
Yeah, but if you extend it to all four majors, remember what we said, Tiger and Jordan Spieth, the only golfers to finish top eight in all four majors in a season since 1980 until Xander. Mm-hmm. Did it this year.
8:01
So I, anyway, uh, Wes said it's yet to be determined. I think he's, he's like, I think Wes was leaning Scotty and says the Olympics will determine it, and Matt seemed to be leaning Xander.
8:11
I don't wanna put words in their mouth. Hank Haney, who they had, uh, uh, referenced in their segment as well, said it's Xander. I, I do- So...
8:18
I do totally, I, I totally b- I, I'm with Wes, though, that it's not- Settled... w- I can say Scheffler now. Yeah. It is not settled. I mean, if Xander- Okay...
8:26
goes and wins gold and then s- he wins the playoffs, then yes, that's more impressive to me than what, what Xander's done. Anyway, I thought they did a great job with that VSiN Tonight with, uh, Youmans and Reynolds.
8:35
There, there's a lot of... You got me fired up, so I'm gonna blame you for this one. Oh, okay. Thank you very much. There's like a lot of like interesting golf talk things going on right now, like Rickie Fowler.
8:42
Like I caught this on Rick Gamen, the First Cut, uh, podcast this morning, him bringing this up. Rickie Fowler kind of like seemingly punting on the season is like a little weird.
8:51
Like he's not inside the line yet for the playoff cutoff, and you've only got two more events before the playoffs start, and he's not playing this week.
9:00
So you're like, some of these guys you start scratching your head over, and I, there's just, there's kind of some i- there's a couple interesting stories like that on the PGA Tour right now that you're like, "Wait, what?
9:09
That doesn't make any sense." This goes, just goes home to Allison. Everything's okay. Yeah. I, well, I think Rickie's one of those guys like I wonder about.
9:16
Like has he made enough money from Puma and endorsements and stuff- Maybe so, man...
9:20
that like he doesn't wanna go to LIV to possibly ruin endorsement stuff, yet like he's good on money, it just doesn't matter in a season like this.
9:26
Uh, not to bring up a tennis equivalent, but it's like the Anna Kournikova thing, right? Yeah. Anna Kournikova never won a single tournament on the WTA Tour. She got into the top 10, right, the edge of the top 10 once.
9:38
Never won a single tournament. Made bajillions. Mm-hmm. Right? So at that point you're like, "Eh, it's okay." That's, that's where like I kind of think we're at that point with Rickie.
9:46
[laughs] Uh, real quick before we get to NFL talk, you did make an NFL bet yesterday. Yeah, I did. Um, I feel like I've been stewing on this for, uh, since the end of last season.
9:56
As soon as MVP markets were posted, I finally pulled the trigger, though. Anthony Richardson I bet on.
10:00
Um, I think it's a little bit of like trying to figure out, it was months of, of trying to figure out that AFC South, which I think is a bit of a nightmare, and I don't really know if I wanna get involved much, uh, from a betting standpoint on any of those teams.
10:13
Like we've talked about, I do think the Texans, I think the Texans are still the best team, and I do expect them to take a step forward, um, even in year two with C.J. Stroud. I just think he's that good.
10:22
I think we both think that. I think C.J. Stroud is that dude, um, that's gonna keep that team going.
10:26
I think this Colts team is one of like the most vol- volatile teams heading into the season of where they could finish, 'cause we didn't see that much fro- uh, from Anthony Richardson.
10:35
I think the defense needs some work.
10:37
But man, it, the good stuff we saw from Anthony Richardson last year, if he can stay healthy for a whole season, I believe he's, he is like a Josh Allen type quarterback that is a superhero type, throw the team on your back.
10:50
So I think it's, I'd rather bet that. I'd rather bet Anthony Richardson, I got 40/1, but 30/1's fine, whatever.
10:57
I'd ra- I'd rather bet that than betting the Colts to win the division or over their win total, 'cause if they do that type of s- of stuff, he's probably in this conversation. That's a good point.
11:07
So I, I, I'm skipping those bets and just going to Richardson MVP. Probably in the conversation, though he won't be a favorite probably- Probably... if they're squeaking into the top of the division.
11:15
Uh, it's an interesting play. Uh, I feel like, and this is, you know, this is NFL preview guide season. We had our own here at VSiN. We have it. Please do get it, vsin.com, uh, slash guide.
11:27
Uh, obviously we've talked about Cleve T.A.'s guide. Yesterday we had Aaron Schatz on talking about the FTN Almanac. We're gonna have Warren Sharp on with us in a couple weeks.
11:35
Um, so I'm in that guide mode, like just immersed. I feel like there are so many teams that have this wide variance of outcomes this year, more so than in other years.
11:45
I could be wrong about that, uh, that it's more so, but it feels that way. NFL talk next. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
The VSiN NFL betting guide is out now, and our all-new college football guide drops August 1st. Only VSiN Pro subscribers get all the tools to prep for the college and NFL seasons.
12:09
Our experts provide profiles of every team with advanced stats, trends, and power ratings, plus best bets on futures and season win totals. Sign up before the end of July and receive both guides and full VSiN Pro access.
12:19
That's full VSiN Pro access to our daily pro picks, 24/7 video, and exclusive data like our betting splits all the way through the Super Bowl for an early bird discount price of just $175.
12:29
The football special discount price expires on July 35- uh, July 31st, so don't wait. That's a week from today. Visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
12:40
Speaking of a week away from, uh, the end of July, Royals with a, uh, loss yesterday to the Diamondbacks. Let's go. Yes. No time to lose now. Pretty much have to go either six and one or seven and O the rest of the way.
12:53
Must- By the way, for me being that guy who complains about baseball and, like, not being able to watch it, like, don't worry, you're never gonna miss any Mets Yankees game ever. Isn't that amazing?
13:01
Like, that's loading up on national TV every single time. It's the most important thing ever. Right. Exactly. [laughs] Yeah, I know. I got that feeling too.
13:09
Uh, I was talking about it earlier, I was talking about our election segment with Jason Weingarten earlier, and, um,
13:14
you know, it, it's fascinating again with the, y- most, uh, literally, like, 90% of these were, were just so positive, right? Uh, Ryan Hyatt, great stuff this morning.
13:23
Key thing here is a nonpartisan look at the reality of the betting markets, no more, no less. That was what we were going for.
13:28
But here's how I know the segment, uh, ended up okay, um, Kelly, because, uh, yesterday we got, uh, feedback from both sides, and I wanna, I wanna [laughs] I wanna see if I can find them.
13:40
Uh, we'll get to them momentarily, but s- but they were, uh... Oh, here you go. This is from, this is from Mariners Geek, who we love very much. Mariners Geek said, "That was an awful segment, Gil.
13:52
Maybe one of your worst, and I'm a huge fan of yours. Find people who know what the blank they're talking about. It's not this guy." So he didn't like Jason, Jason's viewpoint on things.
14:01
And that was quickly followed by Real Cormier who said, "Gil failed to address the fact that the 2020 election was effectively stolen.
14:10
The 3:00 AM pause of counting that had never happened before, the fake water pipe burst, the tons of mail-in ballots that had never been seen, the blocking of the windows so the poll watchers couldn't see in.
14:19
So when he talks about sharp sports bettors being donks at pol- politics betting, it's not factoring that in." That's how I know the segment was perfect. [laughs] 'Cause we got both sides. There you go.
14:29
[laughs] That's how you know it's dead on. Uh, okay, this is, uh, let's see. Let's get to something from, uh, last night. Oh, teasers and parlays.
14:35
He said, "Man, too bad Skeens gave up that second run in the ninth last night. Cardinals beat the Pirates two to one, but Skeens was great.
14:42
It would've been interesting to see what Tom Tango's model had if he had finished with a complete game and just one earned run." Here's your Tom Tango Cy Young model update. American League, Seth Lugo
14:55
edging Tarik Skubal right now. Yeah, that's, that's your guy, right? You got Lugo, right? Seth Lugo's my guy, yeah. I have a- Nice... I have a bet on him. Edging Tarik Skubal, though.
15:04
You know, what's the, he talked about what's sustainable and what's not. Uh, we might be in trouble there. Corbin Burns third, a distant third. National League, Sale one, Wheeler two, Reynaldo Lopez three.
15:19
Skeens nowhere to be found. He just really isn't nowhere, he's just nowhere to be found. But yeah, it might've been interesting. Well, well, isn't that, it's, isn't it partially 'cause the innings? Innings. Yeah.
15:29
And, and technically- Tango's because the innings? Tango's formula. By the way, Skeens is all the way down at 34.1. When I'm talking about Sale at the top, that's, these are Tango points, he's at 49.
15:39
Um, again, the formula's very simple. Innings pitched divided by two minus earned runs plus strikeouts divided by 10 plus wins. You don't have to memorize that, but it has a lot to do with just baseball card stats.
15:50
And yes, getting to 150 innings is huge, and Skeens may or may not get there. Saw this from, uh, Sarah Langs this morning.
15:58
Skeens' first pitcher was seven or more strikeouts in at least 11 of his first 12 career appearances since at least 1901. You remember that season. Yeah. Uh, Rick Coppero.
16:10
"Gil, the Super Book shut down their app in all jurisdictions except Nevada. I think that's something you would take joy in reporting." Never, never enjoy people losing their, their jobs.
16:18
And just to follow VSiN, Bob, remember Bob came in this week, said hello? Just to follow VSiN- Yeah. Hey, dude... community in. Thank you, Bob. Uh, we always love when people come and say hello.
16:26
Uh, let's start with a little NFC North. I'll read some more tweets coming up. Uh, NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are your favorite, but closely followed by the Green Bay Packers to win the division.
16:36
Then it's the Bears, not that far behind, to be honest with you. Um, and then the Vikings. One of these teams is not like the others. The Vikings a distant 10 to one to win this division. Um,
16:49
Kelly, I'll start with the, we'll start with the, let's start with the Bears, just because. Who are the third chat to win this? With number one pick, Caleb Williams.
16:57
Now, again, I'm in preview guide mode, so I'm gonna try to give some context on each of these teams that is not, like, commonly given, and we're gonna lean on Aaron Schatz, who was on the show yesterday. Um,
17:10
Caleb Williams, we all say, coming into a great situation. How great, per Aaron Schatz? By the way, Lions with a season win total of 10, uh, 10 and a half plus 150 to win this division.
17:20
Packers nine and a half plus 210 to win the division. Bears eight and a half season win total plus 265, and then it's the Vikings at 10 to one with a six and a half season win total. So how good of a situation is?
17:31
According to FTN and Aaron Schatz, Caleb Williams walking into a situation that by their numbers represents the best supporting cast for a number one pick over the past 25 years, and the second best for a top 12 pick behind only Dante Culpepper, who you remember as the 11th overall pick, entered a situation with Randy Moss and Cris Carter.
17:53
Now, he didn't play his, his rookie year really, but that's the only situation- Really, you have to go to Randy Moss and, and, and Chris Carter to find a better situation that a top 12 drafted quarterback is entering.
18:05
That's context. Obviously, it's DJ Moore. It's, uh, Keenan Allen. It's Rome Odunze as his receivers. DJ Moore last year, 30% of the team's targets, 40% of the team's receiving yards. That won't be the case this year.
18:16
That's, of course, without even mentioning Cole Kmet. Defense had a second half turnaround. That was another thing. They acquired Montez Sweat from, uh, the Commanders, and that went very well.
18:25
They went from 30th in defensive DVOA from weeks one to nine to sixth from weeks 10 to 18. So, um, you got Shane Waldron, uh, replaced.
18:36
Excuse me, Shane Waldron replacing Luke Getsy on offense to go along with Caleb Williams, and they got a defense that improved second half. So that's where the Bears stand.
18:43
Does, d- are people probably more bullish on them? Because things on paper don't often work out. I'm thinking so.
18:49
Like, I feel like the betting market is a little too bullish on them, but I did not have a, I don't have a bet on either way.
18:55
I don't, yeah, I, I mean, I feel like I've said this 18 times already, and I'll say it 18 times more before probably the season begins.
19:02
I don't think there's nearly as big of a separation between where the Bears and Vikings rosters are, and then therefore where their odds are o- uh, o- on this graphic, compared to where the Bears and Packers are.
19:12
Like, I, I think there is- I agree with that... I think the Bears are much further back from where, from where the Lions and Packers are at the top.
19:18
Um, a- and I, and, and I think the Vikings are better, uh, better than, uh, really what the, what the odds are saying in the market.
19:24
And I, I don't have a bet on them, but I, 'cause I think you're dealing with both situations. You're talking about likely rookie.
19:31
I mean, we know one rookie quarterback, and then likely another rookie quarterback a- at another point.
19:36
I think, I think it's be- the Bears and Bears betting has been fascinating to watch this off-season, because I think, I know res- I know guys I respect that are on both sides of this.
19:45
This is what gets back to my point from the last segment.
19:47
I feel like, and I'm, maybe I'm being prisoner of the moment, but I feel like this year there are more teams that you genuinely have no idea how they're gonna end up. Yeah, I, I, I, I don't know about you, though.
19:57
This is the, this team specifically and the Bears win total, I, I have seen in, in [laughs] the Vs in betting guide I think is a great example. They're all over the place. No, uh, like, and I think it's mainly guys.
20:08
I think a lot, I saw a lot of the same bets that I have, where I bet the, I bet the alt over under. So I had the, I'm laying, like, minus 160, but I'm betting under nine and a half wins for the, for the Chicago Bears.
20:19
Yeah. I mean, that's, like, it's a great situation he's g- uh, Caleb Williams is going into. There's no doubt about that. Second-best of the last quarter century. And, and I can't argue that. Can you argue that?
20:27
Yeah, no. Like, yeah, like, it probably is, but, like, it's still very, very lofty expectations for a rookie quarterback in a very tough division in my opinion.
20:38
And I, when you're talking nine, n- like, nine wins, the guy could still have a winning season and I can get that bet home. And although his senior year was not as spectacular as his junior year, his stats were great.
20:47
Mm-hmm. Like, his, honestly, Caleb Williams, talking about at USC. Uh, let me just talk about the Vikings before the break.
20:52
Remember, they bounced between, uh, Dobbs, Hall, and Nick Mullens after the, uh, Kirk Cousins injury last year. Uh, second half of the season, 28th as a result in passing DVOA from weeks 10 to 18. Not good.
21:05
That was after Dobbs had his great moment there early. But then, uh, in the, in the aggregate of it all, they were 28th out of 32 in DVOA, passing DVOA, from weeks 10 to 18.
21:14
They signed Sam Darnold to a one-year deal worth 10 million. Then they, they made some cagey draft maneuvers that got them to only have to move up one place to get J.J. McCarthy.
21:23
Remember, they still had enough draft capital to then, um, do other things on defense as well. They g- they end up getting, um, some defensive help as well on the, uh, either.
21:35
Uh, Justin Jeff- So there, there's quarterback room, if you will. The quarterback room, as people like to say, not taking a big part of the salary cap. Um, Justin Jefferson getting the most of the salary cap.
21:44
Remember, it's Aaron Jones now in as their running back, their starting running back.
21:49
And he really still, even though he's getting older, among 37 backs with at least 70 carries with a quarterback under center last season, Jones second in success rate behind only Kyren Williams of the Rams. He's awesome.
21:59
The big thing with the Vikings, just trying to give context where others have, have may have not, Brian Flores on defense. They have the most chaotic and arguably the most perplexing unit in the league.
22:07
They blitzed on 50.7% of opposing dropbacks. Highest blitz rate for any team since 2014. But the high blitz rate didn't always work.
22:16
They ended up only 21st in pressure rate and ranked 29th in DVOA when they sent six or more pass rushers. But because they're always throwing pass rushers in, when they only rushed two or three, they were actually...
22:27
Excuse me, three or four, they were really good. Because the opposing offenses are like, "Well, I don't know if they're sending six." So it's this weird effect. So the, a lot is still reliant on Brian Flores.
22:38
Um, the Vikings, though, 10 to 1, even with the Dallas Turner help now on defense coming through. 10 to 1 to win this division. We'll come back more on this next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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23:04
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23:15
Kelly, I cannot say this enough. The DraftKings offices, that little area down by Durango Casino in Vegas, what a, what a great little city within a city. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Just wanna point that out.
23:27
Had a great lunch. Great spot. Had a great lunch there yesterday. Great spot. General admission. I'll be doing the same thing today, I think. You, uh, before we get to Siya, Siya's standing by, Siya Najad.
23:35
Before you, you, you very innocently, you looked over your shoulder and you said to me, "Gil, what the hell is this?" [laughs] I believe is what you said. And my answer to you is, this is actually the Olympics.
23:46
This is before the opening ceremonies, they're playing soccer. This is legitimate Olympics right here you're watching. Are there other sports doing that? I mean, this isn't- I don't think so. I think this is the first.
23:55
This is it? So far. Okay. And you also correctly asked the que- You asked two other great questions. One, who the heck is Argentina playing? 'Cause it says MAR. Yep.
24:05
It's Morocco And then your even more poignant question was, "Wait, they're beating Argentina?" [laughs] Isn't this an upset? 'Cause it is two to one in the 86th minute in favor of Morocco. What was the line on this?
24:19
Why is my voice doing that? I, I don't know, but also, like, men's, m- [laughs] like men's soccer in the Olympics, right, like they don't roll anybody out for. Women's soccer- Oh, is this the, is that how it goes?
24:28
They- Yeah, women's soccer I think you still get, like, the elite players. Oh, I see. That's what it is. Men's soccer, like Argentina does, this is like their C squad. Let's go Israel, counting on you.
24:37
And- Like, this is where I think, this is, like, the only reason why teams like Morocco have a chance against Argentina is because of that. Ah, there you go. You've cracked the code once again. Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
24:46
Ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at Siya Nejad. That's @, that's S-I-A N-E-J-A-D. And he comes to us talking, uh, football and golf as always.
25:00
We love having him. From the DMV, the Monumental Sports Network, it's Siya Nejad. How you doing, Siya? I'm doing really well. I'm excited to talk both golf and NFL. We're Darren Sproles days away from NFL kickoff.
25:13
Very exciting stuff. That means 43, right? That's right. 43. I do that with old Skins jerseys, by the way. I tell people all the time, I remember phone numbers that way.
25:21
I'm like, uh, Charlie Taylor, Larry Brown, that, that way. Do you do that at all, mnemonics?
25:27
Well, the, the player I used, yes I do, but the player I used yesterday when I did one of my other shows, The Early Edge, was John Riggins. So I'm- Yeah... always paying homage.
25:35
And when there was, you, you'll like this, Gil. When there was 52 days, uh, from football season, I used Neil Olkewicz. Neil Olkewicz. Which is a reference that only I got, but it was still worth it.
25:43
Well, you didn't give it to me, 'cause I would've got it in a heartbeat. But me and my buddies, we exchange when they turn a certain age, we're like, "Hey, Mel Kaufman." Right? Like, we, and it's funny- Right...
25:52
how ev- you do that from the players largely of your childhood, right? Mm-hmm. Like, it's a rare player of modern day, um- That's right...
26:00
the way our brains work in evolution, how, how much our childhood teams mean to us. All right. Mm-hmm. We just talked, Kelly and I did, about the NFC North, uh, where the Lions are the short shot.
26:09
But the Green Bay Packers are closely lined behind them after Jordan Love's great emergence last year. The Bears, and we just discussed, according to FTN,
26:21
Caleb Williams going into the second-best situation of any quarterback drafted in the top 12 in the last 25 years.
26:28
Only Dante Culpepper going into a situation with Randy Moss and Chris Carter was better than the one that Caleb Williams is coming into.
26:34
So you have not only the Lions at 10 and a half, Packers nine and a half, Bears eight and a half, but you've got to win the division plus 150, plus 210, and plus 265 respectively. Vikings are a different story.
26:46
They're at six and a half. They're at 10 to one to win the division. Kelly is giggling. I have no idea why. [laughs] Olympics is under 23 apparently competitions. [laughs] Under 23.
26:54
That's why Morocco is beating Argentina. Sorry, Siya, we- I think it's Vegas regular. [laughs] Sorry, Siya. Go ahead. Yeah. Please answer the question.
27:01
[laughs] Well, well, first of all, I think it's under 23, but you have three players that are allowed to be over that age. Oh. So I think you get, like, a three veteran, uh, maximum.
27:10
But still, to Kelly's original point, like, this is definitely not the A team on, on the men's side, so that's why you're seeing, uh, Morocco potentially. I'm sure it's an upset regardless.
27:19
But, uh, speaking of upsets, I mean, when we talk about the NFC North, I think the odds are properly aligned here.
27:25
Uh, I, I like, listen, from a Super Bowl, if I'm looking at, like, Super Bowl odds, I do, I'm more intrigued by the Packers number, 'cause I think that offense is, like, really hard to stop, and I do think they made some upgrades on defense that are, that are worth, uh, you know, kind of moving lines or appreciating a plus 1900 to win the Super Bowl.
27:42
But the, the Lions are the team that's stacked on both sides, and they had an unbelievable offse- uh, uh, I should say off-season on the defensive side of the ball.
27:50
They still have the, the offense, and of course the home games. I think Kelly mentioned that last segment, where, you know, indoor they get to play a lot. So I, I would choose the Lions here.
27:59
From a win total standpoint, I think the Bears fall at eight. I do agree, he, Caleb Williams is in a great situation. I thought the de- this defense really stepped it up once they got Montez Sweat, uh, late last year.
28:09
Obviously, the offense should be good. I think they're gonna be at eight wins. I kinda like the under in that one.
28:14
I like the Packers as a long shot Super Bowl winner, but if I'm talking just division, the Lions at, at plus 150 is probably the play here.
28:22
So you got, you got the Packers as the team with the three starting pitchers that could make some noise in the post-season, basically.
28:28
That's exactly right, and it's par- it's part of the reason, like, part of the reason for that is because it's plug and play at the receiver position.
28:33
The way this offense works, I mean, we're talking Dontayvion Wicks or Christian Watson or Jayden Reed, like, name the player. They've got a couple of tight ends that are really good, too.
28:41
That offense is really hard to stop, and once it gets humming, I don't care who you are, like, they're, they're gonna put points on the board. So it's just a matter of their defense stepping up.
28:48
I think the, in terms of the NFC, I think it's really four teams. It's the Niners, it's, it's, in this order: the Niners, the Lions, the Packers, and the Eagles probably tied for that third spot.
28:57
I think any of them can win, but for me, it's really the Niners and the Lions if those teams stay relatively healthy. Yeah. I'm with you on the Eagles being there. Like, I, I- Yeah...
29:06
I, I agree with the sentiment that I don't know that Jalen Hurts picks up on the Kellen Moore offense, like, as, as any transition would be, right? Mm-hmm. I don't think the Eagles start out that quickly.
29:16
Um, okay, let's get to golf. The 3M Open. Mm-hmm. Otherwise known as the tournament after the Open Championship.
29:22
Tony Finau 11 to one, Sam Burns 18 to one, Ashleigh Barty at 20 to one, Sahith Theegala at 22 to one, as well as Billy Horschel, who had himself a, uh, a run at the Open Championship. He's also at 22 to one.
29:34
Let's start with the outrights. Yeah, this is interesting because I treat this, because it's after the open, I almost treat this like an alt event like we had with the Barracuda and The ISCO the last two weeks.
29:45
And, and I actually did really well in those tournaments, partly because I didn't flirt with the top of the board.
29:49
I kind of went down the board a little bit when it went to- when it came to the first round leaders and, and to the outrights. And I've done really well. I hit Nick Dunlap last week at 45 to one.
29:58
We'll get to first round leaders, but I also hit Ben Silverman at 60 to one.
30:01
So I, I like these tournaments quite a bit because those favorites are gonna gobble up a lot of the money, and it pushes some of the odds down for players that are either just as talented or maybe even more talented, or at least have the potential to be for four rounds.
30:12
Luke Clanton is one of those guys.
30:14
He is obviously new on the scene, but his talent and his course fit, even though he hasn't played here before, I think at 25 to one, if he reads this course right and he takes the correct chances, he's so good off the tee with the accuracy, uh, a- and of course with the length, uh, he can really get hot.
30:29
A- and on a course like this, if he doesn't find the water, I think he can win. Keith Mitchell's an interesting case at 35 to one. A horrific putter, but he's played here two out of three times and it's pretty crazy.
30:38
He's gained with the putter in a big way.
30:40
Now, the corollary to that is that he's lost on approach, but that's an unusual thing for Keith Mitchell, and I think now that he's been at this course a few times, he's going to kind of correct the mistakes with the ball striking.
30:50
He's still finished really well. The last two times here, he's finished fifth each time, and that's with poor app- approach play. So I think he has a, a ton of upside, some downside too. J.T.
30:59
Poston, really good course fit. The recent form's been pretty sketchy, but really like J.T. Poston at 35 to one. And then finally, a couple bombs. Uh, Ben Griffin at 50 to one, approach play putter.
31:09
Looking for that here, uh, with Ben Griffin. And then Ben Coles. The Ben Coles vibe. He's 170 to one in some places, 150 to one, 125 to one in other places. I just love his metrics.
31:18
I think he's got a shot because of his approach and putting game, and he's pretty accurate off the tee as well. All right, I buried the headline. You sent me and Kelly a text this week. Yeah.
31:27
Would you like to tell everybody why? [laughs] Yeah.
31:30
Well, you guys, you guys say I'm the first round leader king, and it, it really hasn't been that way much of this year, although I did hit Akshay Bhatia at 65 to one a couple of months back, I believe at the Valero.
31:38
But, uh, two weeks ago at The ISCO, I hit a 60 to one Pierson Coody first round leader. Last week at the Barracuda, I hit a 60 to one Ben Silverman first round leader. I've been really hot in that department.
31:49
[laughs] And I've got a, I've got a lot of bombs for this week, including one 60 to one shot, so maybe we can make it three in a row at plus 6,000. Maybe we can. What do you got? Who's your first round leader?
32:00
You have, you have a bunch of these you're betting. I have a bunch and, and, and they're mostly long shots. And just full disclosure here, I mean, these are kind of like sprinkle bets.
32:07
There's usually one or two that I'll put a few more bucks on, but the rest I'm putting like two to three bucks on because the odds are so long. Uh, I've got seven here total.
32:15
Two are in like the, the oh my gosh range in terms of, uh, triple digits. Keith Mitchell at 50 to one, Nick Dunlap at 50 to one. I mean, he just won the tournament last week.
32:24
His temperament is such that I think he'll be firing on all cylinders round one. Ben Griffin is the 60 to one shot. I'll mention Ben Griffin and, and J.T. Poston were my first clicks from an outright standpoint.
32:33
He's my only 60 to one shot here, and I've been good with the 60 to ones over the last two weeks. So maybe we make it a triple with Ben Griffin.
32:39
The other ones, Lee Hodges 70 to one, Chandler Phillips at 100 to one, and Ben Coles at 110 to one. Again, sprinkle bets, but I do like that Ben Griffin at plus 6,000. Ben Coles.
32:49
Never walk away from the table when you're on a heater. [laughs] That's what Siya's doing right now. S- Siya. We rarely get the group text from Siya, so we knew something was up. We're like, "Oh- Yeah... what's Siya do?"
32:59
I li- I like cocky Siya. It was a little bit of a cocky Siya text. I like that version of Siya. It was great. It was awesome. [laughs] Oh, it was. It was. Put on fire, man.
33:06
Siya Nejad from the Monumental Sports Network in the DMV. Uh, thank you, Siya, as always, for your thoughts on both football and golf, man. We appreciate it. Good luck with the first round. All right, fellas.
33:16
See you soon. My man. Uh, @S-I-A-N-E-J-A-D. We talked NFC North. Why don't we talk some NFC West on the other side? Maybe we'll start at the top this time. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:27
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:44
Numbers game proudly brought to you right here from Bar Canada at the D. Don't forget about our college football guide. It drops on August 1st, a week from today.
33:52
Only VSiN Pro subscribers get all the tools to prep for the college and NFL seasons. NFL guide, of course, already out.
33:57
Our experts provide profiles of every team with advanced stats, trends, and power ratings, plus best bets on futures and season win totals.
34:02
Sign up before the end of July and receive both guides and full VSiN Pro access to our daily pro picks, 24/7 video, and exclusive data like our betting splits all the way through the Super Bowl for an early bird discount of just $175.
34:14
The football special discount price expires on July 31st, so please do not wait. Visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bilin.
34:25
Uh, Bainbridge DeWees tweeted, he goes, "Could it be that all of, uh, your soccer, uh, knowledgeable fans knew that it was under 23 because when we bet it, it says U23?" That could be. [laughs] That could be.
34:37
It's a good point, Bainbridge. Well done. I just want to, uh, follow up on a couple, 'cause we talked NFC North and NFC West so far.
34:43
Uh, I just wanna remind people, Cleve TA, 'cause a lot of people are betting Jared Goff to win MVP. Mm. Mike Samich, one of them. My God, I think I saw him down to like 20 to one, uh, yesterday.
34:52
So just want, I just wanna remind people, Cleve's opinion on this. He says, "I don't wanna ruffle any feathers," because I think, I think I've heard like four or five guys- Mm... say that they have Goff for MVP.
35:03
It, it, it is the most popular MVP pick I've heard this off-season. And we know how that usually works out. But he goes, he goes, this is, uh, Cleve's talking. He says, he goes, "I mean, Detroit won 12 games.
35:13
He finished second in the NFL in yards and fifth in touchdowns, and divent- and didn't even sniff one vote.
35:20
There is an inherent bias against him forever because he's a system quarterback and Detth- and Detroit throws it at the seventh lowest rate in neutral situations. They don't even fully trust him.
35:31
He should be double the odds in my opinion." That's just that.
35:35
And as far as Brock Purdy, this is according to the, again, leaning on the FTN Almanac, 'cause it's preview guide season, and we're, for God's sakes, it's still July. So we're just sort of aggregating opinions.
35:44
The jury on, on Brock Purdy, right? 'Cause that was like, we debated this. This was the big debate really of the regular season last year. Is Brock Purdy an MVP? Obviously until they played the Chiefs, right?
35:55
Um, was it the Chiefs or the Ravens? I can't even remember now. Until they had the bad game. The Ravens. Now I'm forgetting. Um, it was the Ravens. And they just, and they, and it crapped out. Um, but
36:07
the debate, the FDN settles it by saying this, and I think this is about, this is a very neutral statement, which I think most people would, would agree with.
36:14
They say that they find Purdy to be a very good quarterback who raises San Francisco's offensive floor, but puts up elite statistics because he has been handed the best situation in the NFL, Aiyuk, Kittle, McCaffrey, et cetera.
36:27
Who, by the way, San Francisco's the second team to ever have players in the top three in their other stat, DYAR, at wide out running back and tight end, and the first to do so in a full season.
36:35
So that's the situation he finds himself in. That doesn't mean he's not good.
36:39
That means he's still very good, that gets elevated by the people around him, and that also means that when his con- when his rookie deal expires, the Niners have no choice but to pay the man. Yeah.
36:47
If, if it goes well this year. Yeah, a- and- Yeah... like, I'm very pro Purdy. I think the, the...
36:52
where there, where that co- where, why it becomes a conversation, right, it's because, okay, we get it, like it's a, it's a rookie who was drafted late, so you automatically have doubts about the guy. You don't...
37:05
So you, when he has success, you wanna give more of the, probably more of the credit to the situation than it deserves.
37:12
So like I, like I understand why it was a debate last year, and I don't really know that we still have a complete answer to that either.
37:18
You, you can't punish him for ha- being surrounded by good players- Right, exactly... and playing great. Yeah, exactly. Uh, Seahawks are fascinating. But of course it helps him too. You know what I mean?
37:26
No, no, of course. Like of course, yeah. Of course. No one's saying it doesn't. Right. But that's what he's doing on the field. Uh, Seahawks are seven and a half. That's their season win total.
37:32
They're seven to one to win the division. And again, talk about like fascinating NFL teams. I, as much as we make of coaching, we don't make enough of it.
37:42
So Seahawks defense over the last 14 years, according to DVOA, they went from 13th to 20th to 22nd to 28th. That's not good. This ain't the Legion of Boom anymore.
37:54
And they had veterans that aged out of their prime, draft picks failed to pan out, and Pete Carroll's scheme just didn't, it just didn't evolve with the, uh, the modern NFL.
38:03
He want, he, philosophically he wanted to run the ball, he wanted to play defense, and they make this great point in FDN Almanac.
38:09
They said he's not one to take unnecessary r- he was not one to take unnecessary risks on offense, which gradually Kelly transitioned into someone not willing to take necessary risks- Hmm... on offense.
38:21
I think that's a great sentence. Yep.
38:23
He finished 25th out of 35 in last year's aggressiveness index, and only four teams lost more win probability by kicking when they should have gone for it than your Seattle Seahawks under Pete Carroll.
38:36
That's not to say he wasn't a great coach. He was. But it kinda ended poorly, um, through the last years. Time had passed him by. Um- Don't worry, like Nick Saban, he's g- he has a cushy office still there.
38:48
[laughs] He's got a cushy office. I'm sure they'll consult him every day, and I'm sure he's there all day.
38:51
Uh, so Rams defensive coordinator, former Rams defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, which Kelly points out not only is gonna be confusing with Mike McDaniel, Michael McDonald of the Doobies and solo career, but also that he spells his name- Yeah...
39:04
without a capital letter behind the M. Yeah. Uh, it's terrible. That, I'm gonna screw that up. For someone that has to type these things for graphics- Oh, yeah... I'm gonna screw that up a lot.
39:11
So they go from the oldest coach in the league to the youngest, and here's the thing with, with Mike McDonald.
39:17
Um, everything he did in Baltimore was fantastic, and his whole defensive thing is he wants to confuse the offense.
39:25
His hallmark is nobody knows where anything is coming from, and that includes like defensive lineman backing out, backing up into pass coverage. Um,
39:35
he, he just changes his game plan from a defensive game plan on a game to game basis. That's what great coaches do. They don't say, "This is my system and it works against everything."
39:45
That's the Marty Schottenheimer way. No. The Joe Gibbs way is, "No, I'm gonna tailor my X's and O's to who I'm playing, 'cause I'm that smart about football." That's Mike McDaniel. It's a great hire. Um,
39:57
and- Mike McDonald. Mike McDonald. I just did it. [laughs] What was that you were saying, uh, about this show being smart? We have to have a running tally on you all year. [laughs] Um, that's right.
40:05
So anyway, they, he, he, he held in Baltimore Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, who finished first, second, and third in DVOA. Uh, he held them to like a combined 39% success rate. That's how good they were.
40:16
Um, but here's the deal. So Geno Smith, right, another one of these quarterbacks that people have troubles, you know, trouble sort of evaluating.
40:23
Geno Smith they say very sort of neutrally, "Good enough that you don't have to worry about the position while they patch their other, their other eight zillion holes." Yep.
40:32
And by the way, that moment in the summer where people were like, "I don't know, Sam Howell could start," they point out that was insane.
40:38
Sam Howell committed more negative plays than any other quarterback in the league last season. Remember when we saw those opening odds for the week one starters there? I was like, "What were we talking about?"
40:45
I was like- They're, they were like minus 300. That's it? Y'all watch Sam Howell? Here's the biggest point about the Seahawks, though. I wanna make this. With Mike McDonald's... Is that correct? Yeah.
40:54
With his defense, the way that his defense works, when you have all that Baltimore personnel, and those are veteran players largely, then you're in the system for a while. You get all of the machinations of it, right?
41:09
Oh, now we're sending three. Oh, now we're sending four. Oh, now we're sending it from this direction. Oh, now we're sending it from this direction. Oh, you're dropping back. You're doing this.
41:15
On a play to play, game by game basis. Now, though, you have a n- a, a young group of players who are going to have to learn this system.
41:24
And so the point about the Seahawks, and this gets into like making bets mid-season, this is going to be a steep learning curve for this defense. That's the point that they really wanted to make about the Seahawks.
41:34
It's gonna be a very steep learning curve early, but by the end of the season, they could be a way better version than they were in the first half.
41:42
We just talked about a number of cases where teams started out poorly and ended strong. Yeah. Or started out good and then ended poorly. So that's the thing with the Seahawks.
41:49
By the end of the year, could they be competing for a wildcard spot? Absolutely. But it could be really ugly early.
41:57
Um, and they get to play a lot of their wild card contenders or potential wild card contenders, at least on paper, in November, like three different ones.
42:04
So they will be able to control their own fate still, even if they start poorly. So that's why the Seahawks, they represent a lot of teams. All of that in the mix, do you really have a bet on them one way or the other?
42:14
I don't. I do. You do? I do. I actually just, this is my most recent, uh, I guess I made Anthony Richardson last night, but I've been thinking about that for like four months. That's a love that you fired.
42:24
Uh, Seattle, Seattle, I, I did. I made a bet, um, uh, I think this past weekend, uh, it was, or, or Friday or something like that. And I don't...
42:33
This is where there's a couple teams I've got circled to kind of wait and see on, on different situations in season, and kind of as you're speaking to with them.
42:40
Problem is, Gilf, with this team, you get Broncos and Patriots right off the bat. So, you know, you kind of expect wins to come early, even, even if the defense is still figuring some things out.
42:49
I think those are two teams you want to get started with. Um, this team dealt with, they had the fifth most injured offensive line last year. Just shuffling all that around, all that around was a nightmare.
42:59
You get a new offensive coordinator in, um, who, uh, Brian Grubb, guy from Washington. We saw the offense he ran there with Panik. So you're gonna see a lot more of those three wide receiver sets.
43:10
When we talked, we were talking big time last year heading into the year, uh, about Jaxon Smith-Njigba getting out there and the three wide receivers they got. Oh, they got receivers, that's for sure.
43:18
Yeah, that they're gonna be able to roll out. Um, I just, th- this is more of a br- a handicap of the rest of the NFC. And I, at two to one for them to make the playoffs, it was a bet for me.
43:28
I think they do get in as one of those wild card teams. Um, so I, I like them at two to one.
43:33
I do think they're gonna end up usually probably the second team in the NFC West, uh, behind the 49ers, but ahead of the Rams, um, is where I have them.
43:40
So two to one, and then it also did translate to a Mike McDonald, uh, Coach of the Year bet.
43:45
I think using a lot of those Cleave TA guardrails that we kind of set in place of a team that needs to improve, uh, by a certain amount, I think this is a team that could, that could do that, uh, this next season to get into that category of, you know, 11 wins, something like that, getting in the playoffs and get your Coach of the Year.
44:00
So I made Mike McDonald Coach of the Year bet, and I made, um, the Seahawks to make the playoffs. I may end up with a Mike McDonald Coach of the Year bet. I like it. I think he's the best hire out there. Me too.
44:11
Who's the sur- who's the surprise team in the NFC this year? Who's the team that comes out of nowhere? Still don't know. I don't know. Somebody will. Cardinals could be better than we think they're gonna be.
44:21
Oh, we will talk about the Cardinals coming up. We haven't left them out. But first, Jason Weingarten on the other side with all his bets. It's a numbers game at Visa, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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