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Jul 24, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 24, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 24, 2026
00:00
47:54
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:59
[cheering] There's nothing like being in the stands cheering on your favorite team. Game Time is your hack to unlocking amazing tickets in just a few taps.
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Take the guesswork out of buying sports tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app and create an account to start searching for tickets to upcoming games and events. [upbeat music] This is VSiN,
1:33
the sports betting network. The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
1:49
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. So many options. We just require that you pick one. We don't require it.
2:02
We're grateful that you do. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco. Kelly Bidlin back in Las Vegas. What up? Hey, yo. Good morning. How we doing? Doing pretty good, man. Yeah. Doing all right. You know? Yeah.
2:14
Uh, we got some tennis going on this morning, as always, sweating through that. Uh, on the show today, Jensen Lewis kind enough to, uh, hang out. Man does buy the books for thr- what is it?
2:23
Three hours every morning, and then we have the audacity to ask him to hang around for another 15 minutes and join us. That's right. But he's kind enough to join us.
2:31
So we look forward to his, uh, plays in baseball today, maybe some, uh, trade deadline thoughts. Chris Felica, college football futures. Let's go. His bread and butter, besides horse racing, of course.
2:43
Uh, we'll talk college football with The Bear, as he is known. Uh, we've done NFC divisions all week. Kelly, why stop now?
2:50
Let's wrap it up with the NFC West, largely considered the best division in football, I guess, except for the Cardinals, so maybe not. Yeah. Yeah. Kind of.
2:58
Uh, that's where I think you gotta go NFC West or NFC North, right? Like, do you go the top to bottom NFC North or NFC West top-heavy? Yeah.
3:06
Which, uh, th- three great teams, or two great ones, one very good one, and then the Cardinals. Uh, we'll get into all that. Tyler Shoemaker, both college football futures and WNBA futures.
3:17
Looking forward to that, 'cause those are his two bread-and-butter sports, uh, with the T-Shoo Index, so we will talk to him about that.
3:23
And then a little later on, Chris Gordy is gonna join us, um, breaking down the SEC. Looking forward to this, 'cause it, we just had SEC Media Day. Not cur- n- not sure if anything developed out of that.
3:35
But the SEC's a pretty interesting discussion, because you have a, you have a situation where you're, you're going to nine conference games this year, Kelly. Mm-hmm.
3:45
And so you will most likely, right, you will most likely end up with a situation where, you know, they're all playing each other one more time than they have in the past.
3:58
And, you know, if you look at projections, like Bill Connelly, our buddy Bill Connelly, who's like the, uh, the Aaron Shots of college football with SP+.
4:05
Matter of fact, his background is at Football Outsiders with, with Aaron before he broke off to ESPN and started doing SP+. He did SP+ before he got to ESPN.
4:13
But his projected win total, his highest projected win total in the SEC is, like, I think 9.8 wins. So what I'm getting to- Hmm... and this'll be a question I'll ask of, uh, Chris Gordy later, is
4:26
adding the extra conference game. Sure, maybe Georgia exceeds that, right? Maybe, maybe, maybe even another. Maybe a Texas does. But maybe not.
4:37
What happens, I guess, when the committee has to evaluate all these SEC teams? Will it...
4:42
Sure, they'll get to a lot of bowl games, but what, w- will it impact one or, or two or three of them when it comes to the actual playoffs themselves? Yeah, I'm also- It'll be interesting.
4:52
Yeah, that, that, very interesting. I'm also kind of obsessed with the Arch Manning conversation at this point, Gil.
4:57
I, I mean, like, I feel like I've heard i, i- in this off-season that, like, Arch Manning is still live to go, like, first overall in next year's draft, and that he's also could be out of the first round.
5:06
So I'm really [laughs] interested to see how that develops this season. Arch Manning, I, you know, it's funny, because I guess the, the takeaway if you ask the average person, like if I ask my buddy Tommy in DC. Mm.
5:17
I go, "Hey, what do you think about Arch Manning?" He's like, "Oh, really hasn't lived up to the hype." Right? That would probably be his, that would probably be his knee-jerk reaction. Arch Manning, best
5:26
QBR in college football from November on- Mm-hmm... last year. But also, like, when he rolls out, the most inaccurate quarterback you'll ever see. Yeah, but- So, [laughs] which is just really weird, right?
5:40
I, it's, and also, like, how mu- You know, it is. It absolutely is, and I can't, I can't...
5:44
I'm really looking forward to this, this college football season, a couple of these top quarterbacks, to see how they progress through the season, right? And then we always gotta play the game at the end, Gil.
5:53
How much does the Manning name matter, right? And I think it's gonna matter to some NFL teams. Yeah. Um, can't, can't argue with the pedigree, that's for sure.
6:02
The greatest pedigree there is with, uh, father Yeah, or I should say with grandfather, with father, with uncle Mm-hmm Uh, or I should say with grandfather and two uncles, I should say.
6:13
Uh, 'cause that's Cooper's, uh, son. Okay. Uh- Hey, Cooper played high school ball, right? He was a- Cooper played some high school ball... wide receiver or something. Yeah That's right. Um, okay, tennis.
6:22
Uh, there were five plays for subscribers, vsin.com/picks. One of them is a cancellation. Our girl, uh, Oleinikova, she did not, uh, she did not make it for her match, so that one is nullified.
6:36
But we, like yesterday, couldn't hit the two biggest dogs on the board. So both, uh, Lalana Tahirudi, you know Lalana Tahirudi, Kelly. Oh, yeah. Sure.
6:46
And, uh, and Alina Haraeva, uh, plus 171 dogs, plus 151 dogs, they both lost to start, uh, the overnight. So we're left with two. Maya Sherif, if you remember, won a tournament last year.
7:00
She beat Paula Badosa in the final, but the way that the final went was it was 6-4-4 love.
7:06
We were on Sherif as a big dog, and then Badosa took her toys and went home, because God forbid she lets us have a win against her. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. So they're facing each other now the next week.
7:14
This is, I believe, the quarterfinals of a tournament in, uh, Hamburg, Germany. And, uh, we're going to... We're, we're in a third set.
7:23
Our girl, Maya Sherif, who we backed again, is up a break early in the third set, 2-1. She's a plus 133 dog, so hopefully, hopefully we get that one home.
7:34
And then the only one remaining, for those who are interested in playing later on, a little pre-flop, is on the men's side, Roman Andres Buruchaga once again. I- Buruchaga, Buruchaga, Buruchaga.
7:47
I have probably- I can't fight this feeling deep in... Okay, sorry. [laughs] No, that's all right. You can continue. Please, continue. I love that you're betting Buruchaga again. It's fantastic.
7:57
I'm just glad I got to do that one more time. Well, he's w- I've probably backed this dude, like, five times in the last two weeks. Yes. I think we're like, what? Yeah, I think that's what we're up to... three and one.
8:05
Yeah. And he's always a dog, right? He's a, he's a underdog every single time.
8:09
It's one of these real- really interesting situations where a dude with spectacular numbers on a surface, his on clay, keeps getting, in my opinion, and it's been corroborated by the results so far, keeps getting no love in the actual betting market.
8:24
So we'll do it again. Buruchaga at plus 117 is the play a little later on. That's not for a couple hours. How's the, uh, how's the golf looking, sir, at the 3M Open? Fantastic. Uh, let's see. We've got Mr.
8:37
Ben Coles out there right now. 12 under par, three-shot lead over one Gary Woodland at the 3M Open second round action. Ben Coles through nine.
8:46
I had, uh, 66 to one on him to be first-round leader yesterday, Gil, so that was a nice little way to get this, uh- Did you?... tournament started. Yeah. Come on.
8:52
Continue the rollercoaster ride of golf over the past four weeks, man. It has been wild. It has been, it has been- Well done... very profitable, but man, it has, it has been wild.
9:01
Man, reminder, Ben Coles, the, the same guy who helped me get Chris Gotterup across the finish line, uh, four tournaments ago, the John Deere Classic.
9:11
They were tied with Ben Coles on the 18th, and he just put it in the water, basically to, just to give Gotterup the win. Uh, so yeah, I, the, uh... Man, remember I owe you a fruit basket, Gil Alexander?
9:22
I owe Ben Coles a big-time fruit basket already, and hopefully he just keeps this up and goes wire to wire this weekend. That would be great. What do you owe me the fruit basket for?
9:31
No, no, I, I owe Ben Coles the fruit basket, 'cause he's- Oh...
9:35
he, first-round leader yesterday, and then he was the, the one guy in Chris Gotterup's way four weeks ago when I cashed on him, and he hit in the water and got out of the way. Oh, okay. I heard that wrong. My apologies.
9:47
All right, but congratulations on the 66 to one. You're being kind of nonchalant about that. Well done. Yeah, it was nice. It was nice. Thanks, man. [laughs] So it, it was a nice little- Very nice...
9:54
sweat yesterday afternoon down the stretch. Uh, and okay, and then of course, there's the Red Sox. The Red Sox resume their march on July tonight. A three-game set at home at Fenway against the Toronto Blue Jays.
10:07
Um, can't wait for this. Didn't, uh, the scoreboard, though. You know, these teams are, these teams are three back of the, of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have eight to play. Uh, they're 15 and 2.
10:21
The Tigers and Brewers are both three wins back, 12 and 5, 12 and 7 now, after the Tigers' win over the Royals yesterday. Another one-run win or a one-run rin- one-run win, not another.
10:31
They're only 2-1 this, this month in one-run wins. But the Tigers and Brewers only have seven games left. Uh, then you see the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Braves. Hey, the Diamondbacks showing up, uh, in the- Oh, wow...
10:42
on the graphic now. Um, but again, it's all the Red Sox have to do is go five and three, and they're guaranteed victory.
10:52
Everybody else in that scenario assumes that they go undefeated, so really, it's probably they only have to go four and four or three and five. But things can happen. We don't want to count our, uh, what's the old...
11:03
Count chickens before they're hatched. Uh, just gotta make it happen. Magic number is five for our Boston Red Sox, Kelly, our Boston Red Sox. There we go, man. Let's go. You're, you're gonna be...
11:15
I hope they make this easy on you, and this isn't a sweat the entire next week. This might be the longest week of your life.
11:22
Well, well, I mean, you know, the other, the other way to look at it is, 'cause we have our little silly little bet, right? It's not really silly, it's not really little.
11:28
But the Red Sox, you know, if you go back into the annals of baseball history, and I love doing that, you know I do, the greatest... You, you ever think about what, what's the greatest calendar month record?
11:40
'Cause we just talked about, in the time period that we've been making- Oh, yeah... these bets- Great call...
11:44
two and a half years, that the Marlins last month was the best record of all of those 15 months, of the two years before this and the first three of, of 2026.
11:55
The Marlins, I think, what they were, 20 and 6 in the end, something like that? Can't remember. I think 20 and 6. So go back.
12:01
The best, the, the most wins ever in a month, and this goes back to when they were playing apparently double headers a lot during, [laughs] during baseball. You have to go back to 1916.
12:11
You remember the New York Giants of 1916, the New York baseball Giants. They were 29 and 5, but that's a different era of baseball- Yeah... and they played 34 games. That, that doesn't count. Before prohibition
12:23
Actually, they played 36. Somehow two were not recorded as a win or a loss. I don't- I, I have no idea what that's about.
12:28
But if we're looking for what's the greatest winning percentage of any month in any, in, in baseball history, it is the Cubs of 1906.
12:38
So two years before they won that World Series that we always harken back to before they won it again in 2016, right? The Cubs of 1906 in August went 26 and 3. Went 26 and 3.
12:54
I bring that up only to say that while we're concentrating on our bet, that if the
12:59
Red Sox somehow win their last eight games, these Red Sox will have the greatest month winning percentage-wise in the history of Major League Baseball. Let's go. Just saying. Only 120 years back.
13:14
Hey, stranger things have happened. But just letting you know how good this has been at 15 and 2. We'll come back. Jensen Lewis on Major League Baseball, his thoughts on the trade deadline, all his plays today.
13:24
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
13:37
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:45
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
14:01
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
14:06
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
14:14
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
14:20
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
14:27
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
14:36
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:45
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:57
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
15:10
Sharp plays in full effect mode, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros.
15:19
You could scan the QR code on your screen for more. Sharpplays.com. Check it out. By the way, a, uh, apolitical political, uh, report, Kelly? Sure. We're, we're due for an apolitical political report. Yeah, sure.
15:29
What do you got? What do you got? There is a, there is a race in Arizona for Congress- Yep... between a former Jets kicker and a former Jets doctor. That's all. Wow. That's all I have to say. Yep.
15:43
This is, uh, this is the Jay Feely, uh, uh- Jay Feely versus Amesh Shaw. Okay. There you go. Wow. All right. Good, good nugget right there. Pick your Jets poison. There you go. I'm laughing at, uh- Uh, we get-...
15:54
or the great Danny Higgins, who's on vacation, decided to po- [laughs]... tweet, tweet into the show and post a picture. I saw this. He goes- Yeah... Montana mode on. You saw this? Montana mode on.
16:04
Decided to send us- Uh... a pic- of how, one of the most beautiful states in this country, Montana, and he sends us a picture- Montana is beautiful... of the tarmac at the airport. [laughs] That's right. Good. Sweet.
16:15
Thanks, Danny. Make sure Eva Iovic is not in Montana. [laughs] Uh, noemu Doug, "Ooh, a Gil roast. Open to listeners?" Sure, let's open it up.
16:25
Uh, Xavier82, "Gil, whatever happened with Paula Badosa to have her become the villain? Besides losing some wagers on her, has her overall numbers just tanked?"
16:32
No, no, no, there's no problem in, uh, fading her and losing.
16:35
It's that when you fade her and are about to win and she walks off the court just, you know, sort of randomly to, uh, prevent you from winning as much money as you could, those, the combination of those two, two things becomes aggravating.
16:47
He is betting on Badosa, though. Oh, now Wyatt Chom- Tomchek sending in Montana pictures. Back to Danny Higgins. Um, okay, Chris Felica, once again, kind enough to join us for a second segment, as is his want.
16:59
Uh, not here next week, b- but in studio perhaps two weeks from now for, for Bet Bash. You're, what are you doing at Bet Bash, Chris?
17:05
Uh, well, yeah, I'll b- I'll be, I'll be there during the, during the week, so yeah, I could, I could pop in during the week if, maybe if you, if you'd like. There we go, coming out me and Justin.
17:13
So it'd be me, Jordan, uh... Yeah. Yeah, may, I'll, I'll do that. I won't be there. I'll do that. Yeah. Good. Um, you, you're doing [laughs] you're doing your, you're doing your podcast live from Bet Bash, correct?
17:24
Yeah, well, I believe it's going to be Wednesday at 1:00 Pacific Time, is the window that Spanky has us, uh, s- set in. Nice. I think from 1:00 to 2:00 on, on Wednesday. So yeah, no, that'll, that'll be fun.
17:36
Uh, Sammy, Jeff, Will, and myself, it'll be, it'll be a good time. Looking forward to, uh, running into some people out there. I saw Joe Peta has a nice panel that I, uh, signed up for- Joe Peta...
17:45
about baseball, uh, wagering changes, and, uh- Yes... I thought Tim Murray and, uh, Brett McMurphy's Stash have a college football preview panel that I'll be, uh, attending as well.
17:54
So no, I'm looking forward to, uh, coming out there and having fun. Yeah, the Joe, the Joe Peta baseball panel, or, or, or as I should say seminar, let's call it. The Joe Peta baseball seminar- Yeah...
18:04
is about how baseball betting has changed in 15 years.
18:07
Uh, I have lunch with him every Monday here in San Francisco, and it should be fabulous for people in attendance, um, based on what he's telling me he's gonna talk about. Uh, let's get to, uh, Kyle.
18:17
Speaking of- By the way, Spanky isn't- Speak, speak, speaking of baseball, Gil, the- Spanky has never invited me to have... What? Say again? I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Okay. I didn't know you were still talking. Go ahead.
18:25
I was gonna, gonna say, being that I'm not going to be here, uh, next week, I wanna- I'm not going to congratulate you on the Red Sox, but I wanna just wish you a- Oh, thank you...
18:34
good remainder of the month of July, uh, for w- over the final seven days of the month. So good luck with that. Thank you. That's, that's very kind of you. And I hope you get it. Very sweet of you.
18:42
For, for, for all the good bets that, that you and myself and Will have, uh, made, the 80s to 1, 100s to 1, 150 to 1, for all the good numbers that we've closed at, like, ridiculously short prices and haven't won, I hope someone finally gets one of these good prices home.
18:58
Yeah, Will has had a bunch of those, hasn't he? He feel- I feel like he's had more than anybody, where it's, like, great numbers and they just barely don't... Yeah, they barely miss. Um- Yeah. I...
19:07
What I was trying to get in was I was like, I was, I was going, "Spanky never invited us to have the mega-pod over there at, uh, Bet Bash." Hmm, could it be a Todd thing? I don't know. Uh, okay. To college football.
19:18
You may int- interpret, interpret that as you see fit. Yeah, [laughs] interpret that as you see fit. Right. All right. Head-to-head season wins at DraftKings. You saw a few of these that you loved. Yeah. Uh, okay.
19:29
Texas Tech versus Texas. How did you play this? Uh, Texas Tech minus one and a half wins over Texas. And this is regular season only. Uh, so mi- minus 140, uh, o- one and a half wins over Texas.
19:43
Again, the baseline for Texas, even without Swearinger, is 11 and one. The league is terrible. Uh, they don't get BYU. They don't get Utah.
19:53
All of their toughest games, [laughs] Arizona State, Houston, Arizona, TCU, uh, they're all in Lubbock. But like I said, n- they brought in more transfers and more portal guys than anybody in the league.
20:04
They're still the class of the league. So, like, 11 and one is baseline. And just like we kind of alluded to in, with the SEC conversation before, nine and three is on the table for Texas. Like, they go to LSU.
20:15
They go to A&M. They have Ohio State coming in. Uh, they got the Oklahoma game in Dallas. Ole Miss comes to, comes to Austin as well. Like, this is what Sark is talking about.
20:25
You look at the Texas schedule compared to the, the, the Tech schedule, and it's, it's- Yeah... it's night and day. It's two different sports. Like, 12 and O is legitimately on the table for Texas Tech, and if that...
20:35
If they go te- if they go 12 and O, Texas gotta go 11 and one to beat you. And, and, and that's ne- certainly not happening.
20:42
I think more than likely we're looking at Texas Tech 11 and one, Texas nine and three, and I think we get that home. Yeah. You, you said it, man. It's two different sports.
20:53
Like, that's such a great way of, of characterizing some of the, the incongruity of college football. Meanwhile, Texas has the toughest schedule in the nation.
21:02
What did you think about the hiring of, of Will Muschamp, by the way, de- uh, defensive coordinator? I liked it.
21:10
I, I, I think Will is a really good defensive mind, and I think he's gonna create a little bit of chaos and a little bit of urgency and a little bit of a kick in the, kick in the tuchus for maybe CE.
21:20
He's a great motivator. I, I think it's gonna work out well. By the way, Chris, that's tuchus. Tuchus is how you do it. Oh, I, I apologize. Forgive me. It's all right. It's all right.
21:29
Uh, where's Arts gonna get drafted at, Chris? We're, we're... I'm, I'm kind of obsessed with this already, 'cause I've f- I've heard such very- Oh, he's a, he's a, he's a top five pick. Okay. Not falling out of that?
21:39
By the time he comes out, absolutely. Like, I know Jordan Rodgers, uh, c- came out and said, like, he didn't think he was, like, a number one tight pick right now. But the way he finished last year, like he, he- Yeah...
21:49
took such a... The, the, the expectations that he had, yeah, he started off slowly, as any young quarterback would, and he finished up great. So he's gonna be, he'll be fine.
21:58
You know how they just drafted the quarterback position anyway. Yeah. So he'll, he'll, he'll go higher than, than he should, even if he shouldn't have gone that high.
22:05
As I said earlier, best total QBR in college football from November on last year among quarterbacks. All right, Georgia versus Ohio State. How are you playing this?
22:17
Uh, I took Georgia minus a half a win and plus money, uh, against Ohio State. Uh, Georgia has about the easiest of the, uh, possible SEC schedule, uh, as you could have.
22:27
They had the worst of it the last couple of years, so it's kind of flipped. The, at Bama, at Ole Miss, uh, those are the two toughest games. The D should be better, like we talked about, so 11 and one seems fair.
22:39
Could Ohio State go 10 and two if it... Yeah, I think they could. Uh, they go to Texas. They, they, they go to Iowa, which is always a tricky place to play. They go to Indiana. They have Oregon coming to The Horseshoe.
22:51
They go to SC, and I think they should beat SC, but that's the week before the Oregon game, so maybe there's a little bit of a look at. But I, I think a plus money, uh, is attractive here.
22:59
Ohio State recruits as well, and portals as well as anyone in the country, but is Chris Henry gonna be the number two wide receiver behind Jeremiah Smith?
23:07
Is the offensive line going to be better than they were in their last two games last year against Miami and Indiana? Uh, are they gonna replace the tight end? The four studs that they have to replace on defense.
23:19
A lot of questions, I think, with Ohio State. Talent-wise, they're still there, but, but they could be 10 and two, and you could lose this bet w- w- with, with Ohio State- Okay... if you take Ohio State.
23:28
Um, what about this one right here? I saw a video of yours. By the way, Chris Fallica's Instagram is a great watch this summer between the World Cup and college football. You've done a great job.
23:38
The folks at Fox have done a great job with your feed. Um, you just did a video not related to this particular matchup, but you are really high on Oregon, it seems.
23:48
So you have taken, in this matchup, Oregon minus four and a half games plus 125 versus Nebraska.
23:56
Yeah, I, I think Oregon has the fewest questions, uh, in the country of any of these, the big national contenders with what they brought back, uh, players returning from injury and how they've recruited and brought in players in the, in, in the portal along with the schedule.
24:09
Um, you, you look at the Oregon schedule and it- it's basically a situation where they go to Ohio State, but they haven't lost to a team that hasn't played for the national championship since 2022.
24:22
Like, their losses were Washington in 2023, Ohio State in 2024, and Indiana last year. Like, they win all of the games that they should win.
24:30
They are n- they are, I don't wanna say upset-proof But they're kinda upset proof the way Alabama and Nick Saban used to have that, that long winning streak against unranked teams.
24:40
Whereas with Nebraska, they're gonna go 11 and one. Nebraska, I think, has six and six stamped right in the middle of the forehead.
24:47
Like, they're hoping that Anthony Calandra, who was at UNLV last year, they hope they're getting that version as opposed to the version who played in the Power Four at Virginia. But, they what?
24:58
I don't think Rule has beaten a ranked team at Nebraska. I think they're, what, two and 11 or something like that in November.
25:05
Like, they're not gonna beat Indiana, they're not gonna beat Oregon, they're not gonna beat Ohio State. And then they're at Iowa. Rutgers could be a tricky game.
25:12
Would you be shocked if Maryland or Washington went to Lincoln and won? I sure as heck wouldn't. [laughs] People are getting it all excited in Nebraska like they did last year.
25:21
They're gonna start four and O because of the bad non-conference schedule and getting Michigan State early on, and then they're gonna wind up going two and six down the stretch.
25:28
So I, uh, I took the plus money and laid four and a half with Oregon here. All right. Uh, there was a bonus, uh, season win total under on USC, but we'll let you flesh that out another time at eight and a half units.
25:38
Yeah. Chris Felica, everybody, The Bear, @ChrisFelica on Twitter, the host of The Bear Bets Podcast, which he will do live at Bet Bash two weeks from now with all of his crew. Thank you, Chris. You got it, guys.
25:52
Have a great weekend. Coming back, we'll talk NFC West next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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26:43
Gil Alexander, um, for those who missed it earlier this hour, uh, or actually towards the end of last hour I should say, LeBron James made his announcement.
26:52
Uh, he will go to the Philadelphia 76ers on a two-year, $8 million contract. That might have been the most surprising thing of all, uh, in all of this. So two years, 8 million.
27:03
LeBron calls his shot, not the Heat, not a reunion with the Cavs, not the Warriors, the Sixers, to join Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brown, Joel Embiid, and crew, uh, in the City of Brotherly Love.
27:15
So that's the deal, and, uh, LeBron actually tweeted about this, Kelly? Yeah, he did a series of tweets coming from LeBron.
27:23
The first one, I, I won't read through all these, Gil, but I thought the first one was, did stand out. Uh, "I thought I was done when the season ended.
27:30
I wasn't ready to announce it, and I knew I needed some time to really decide, but I was pretty sure I played my last game.
27:36
I was honest at that last press conference when I said I needed to look at myself and decide if I love this game. I still truly love this game, and I have more to give." He goes on from there at King James.
27:46
You can go check out a few more tweets. I, I think the rest you would expect. "Hey, I'm excited to join Philadelphia," that kind of stuff, right?
27:53
[laughs] I don't, like that was- [laughs] I don't know that I thought we saw LeBron play his last game, and it, it really, I mean- No... that sounds like he was thinking pretty seriously about that.
28:03
I don't know why he, I don't know why he would not tell the truth there, right? Eh. Uh, who knows? Who knows? All we know is that- I-...
28:09
he's headed to the Sixers, and it's pretty darn interesting W- when we talk about him being, like, that fourth option or whatever now, and we're kinda laughing about that, right? Is that really something?
28:17
Maybe that is connected a little bit, right? Maybe it is, of the, "Hey, the, um, you know, we're gonna talk about, uh, game management and all these things, and load management with it, with him."
28:28
Maybe he did, maybe he wanted to go to a spot where he didn't have to do as much in the regular season. Maybe. I'm with ChadLasso on Twitter. ChadLasso says, "People are always so bitter about LeBron. Just enjoy it.
28:39
LeBron for that price anywhere is a great fit." Totally. "Can't wait to see how it plays out." Yep. I'm with you, Chad. I am indeed. Uh, this gentleman is, uh, well, he wears a lot of hats.
28:49
You know, I mean, not just one, not two, even three. Uh, he covers the Houston Rockets. He also does the Houston Astros pregame. Uh, excuse me, the Houston R- uh, Astros pregame show. Yes, that's correct.
28:58
So Rockets in basketball, Astros in baseball, and, uh, he was at SEC Media Day. He's a Locked On SEC host. It's Chris Gordy, uh, who joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisGordy, G-O-R-D-Y.
29:13
Chris, good morning. How you doing, man? Little tired, guys, but, uh, all good. Good to be on with you guys. Yeah, that's crazy news with LeBron, uh, picking a team. Finally over. [laughs] Final- That's right, yeah...
29:24
it's finally over. Let's, let's, uh, let's put your Rockets hat on first. From a f- you know, from your basketball brain perspective, move the needle for you?
29:35
Yeah, I mean, uh, at least from a Rockets perspective, it's nice. I, I'm always good with all the all-stars going to the East. Get out of the West, make the West a little bit easier.
29:43
As we know, the, the Rockets stumbled against the Lakers and lost to them in the first round last year. So, uh, you know, KD was awesome, but now you get Fred VanVleet back healthy, Steven Adams.
29:53
So it seems like the Rockets only have to worry about the Thunder and the Spurs in the West, and that's saying a lot. They're still two [laughs] pretty damn strong teams.
30:00
But at least the Lakers, I think, take a big hit with, with LeBron and, and all those pieces officially gone. But the East gets more jumbled.
30:06
Now, the Knicks, you wanna defend that title, man, that's a, that's a damn good Sixers team you're looking at now. Chris, we're gonna, we're gonna come back to you here.
30:14
Your audio is a little, I believe the technical term is janky. Crackly. So we're gonna come back to you. Yeah. Yeah, crackly. Yeah. Poppy.
30:20
[laughs] Uh, so we're gonna, we're gonna ask, uh, Chris about, uh, the Astros and the trade deadline, and then, uh, he was just at SEC Media Day, get his thoughts on the SEC.
30:29
But I mean, I think, I, I think that's the thing, by the way. Uh, it, it's people, again, there's always gonna be the crowd. And, and listen, I understand.
30:37
I'm part of it, too, where it's like, "Okay, just make your decision, dude," talking about LeBron. "Just make your decision already." So it's here. He finally did. We can all move on.
30:46
But now that he has This is, if I were s- if I was to have ranked the most interesting places he could have landed, for me, Kelly, this is actually, this would be one, two with Miami, right?
30:59
Like, I think Miami would've been fascinating. Huh.
31:01
I agree with you that he probably could've contributed more in Miami than on this team, but just as far as, like, a true title run, because you're in the Eastern Conference, uh, this is pretty legit to me.
31:13
Like again, as a third and fourth option, of course. This is c- this is super interesting. I didn't find Cleveland that interesting. I didn't think he'd make a difference there. I just never did.
31:23
And I didn't think anywhere el- I'd, like, the Warriors goes without saying. Any Western Conference destination wasn't gonna matter.
31:28
Well, I think for, well, I think the where, where's, which team could benefit the most, where could he have the most impact, different conversations, right? I, I think of, of what we're talking about right now.
31:39
W- what do I find most interesting? Very subjective, right? I, I don't f- Yeah... I don't find Philadelphia or Cleveland all that interesting at all.
31:46
I, I think Philadelphia for all the sa- kinda similar reasons that you're saying about Cleveland. It's just, it, it's a jam pack, a, a jam team already full of talent.
31:54
Like, where does he really com- I mean, I think s- That's- I think it w- That's why it's so interesting to me, yeah Oh, okay. For that very reason. Okay, okay. Yeah. So for opposite reasons, then.
32:02
Like, I would've loved to have seen him playing all those minutes, uh, uh, with Steph Curry or on the Minnesota Timberwolves with A- you know, with Ant Edwards- You know what?... and LaMelo.
32:11
I'm, I'm glad you brought up Minnesota. Or playing with Jokic. Because y- Right? Like, playing with- Yeah... Jokic and seeing those basketball minds play together would've been a lot of fun for me. You're right.
32:20
Minnesota would've been pretty darn interesting in the west. I don't know that it would've mattered ultimately. Me either. But that would've been interesting. Yeah.
32:26
Um- I mean, how does he play with those two, with the two young guys, right? Ant, LaMelo. I mean, I mean, I think, I think there's an opportunity he could've helped groom those guys into pretty special players.
32:36
Have the odds moved even more since- Yeah... when we first spoke about this? Just pulled these all up, so I'm gonna go book to book to book for you. How about this? Uh, Eastern Conference odds.
32:43
Back at DraftKings we are back to the Knicks being the favorite, uh, at, so this has been bet back and forth. Plus 330 is New York right now. Philadelphia plus 350.
32:54
Over at FanDuel it is plus 330 for the Knicks, 76ers plus 390, Celtics five to one. So they are kinda settling in as this number, uh, the second shot on the board.
33:04
Over at MGM, Knicks plus 350, Sixers four to one, Celtics five to one. Calci, S- uh, 76ers are your favorite plus 295. Over at Calci, Knicks plus 398, Celtics plus 455.
33:18
Do you read into anything that at Calci they're the favorite? So let, let's talk about that for a second just from a betting standpoint. Yeah.
33:25
Does that indicate in any way, maybe I'm ju- you know, maybe I'm generalizing here, but does it indicate in any way to you that the
33:34
sophistication, let's put it, of those on Calci who tend to be more of the Robinhood, Wall Street guys, right? Mm-hmm. Their sports betting acumen tends to be less than that of the general sportsbook betting population.
33:52
Yeah. I, I think it's, uh, I, I think that's an interesting question, and is there a tell here or not from, from one book, or not book, w- one place being off from the others?
34:02
'Cause these sportsbooks do seem, they seem to have settled for now, right? This is still quick. When did we get this news? 30, 45 minutes ago? Um- Yeah...
34:10
still quick, but, like, the sportsbooks, at least the three I just read, at le- one, two, three are now pretty s- uh, solidly in order. And yeah, prediction markets not so much. Yeah. I, the, the, I don't know.
34:22
I don't know if there's anything to that, but I just found it interesting- Yeah, I'm-... as you said it off the cuff... I'm, I'm interested to see where this win total moves.
34:28
They were 48 and a half as of yesterday, Philadelphia. This was, you know, this is part of the reasons we went over to some of these NBA win total bets the other day.
34:37
Part of the reason I went u- under on the Pistons was kinda had a feeling LeBron would end up somewhere in the east. And I don't know how much that will affect things, but you know, makes things tougher for the Pistons.
34:46
Not, definitely not easier. The other thing that, I means, that is big in the NBA right now, Gil, with this news, is we've still been waiting on this kinda last wave of free agents to get settled.
34:57
The, I think this is what needed to happen before we start seeing where the rest of these guys are gonna go.
35:02
What's gonna happen with a Jaylen Duran, a Peyton Watson, um, geez, James Harden, Draymond Green technically out there. Pen- uh, Benedikt Mathurin. We'll see where all these guys end up now.
35:13
He was h- he was holding the whole league up, like Bryson DeChambeau was holding up the golf tournament the other- Exactly... the other day. Yeah. Yeah. I, I don't know.
35:20
I mean, again, I've said this a million times on this show, basketball's a fu- you know, all sports are, are sort of great puzzles to solve.
35:27
Basketball is funny in the sense that, again, if you got Wilt out there, you know, with Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson, doesn't mean you're going 82 and O. Mm-hmm. Right?
35:37
Doesn't mean you're scoring 300 points a game. There's an optimal efficiency to five guys on a basketball court.
35:43
If their, if their season win total was 48 and a half, does LeBron James in that alchemy, right, in that n- in that very nuanced alchemy that is a basketball team, five guys on a court, how many games does he really add to that team?
36:00
Is it a couple? Is it less than that? Is it more than that? I, I don't know, right? To me, my instinct is it's a couple. Yeah. Me too. No, me too.
36:11
That, that, that, mine as well, I think it's a great question though because we know how this works. I mean, the, the, someone with a name that big, right, making a move to Philadelphia.
36:23
Like, is there a wave of early overs that come in here through this weekend? Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by that. So me and you might just be low just because of how much it's gonna get bet.
36:33
But yeah, I think it's probably a couple. Oh, oh, I'm not predicting where it's going. I'm just saying what does it probably mean- Yeah, yeah... in the end. I agree. Yeah.
36:41
Um, that load management point is a, is an interesting one too. Maybe, maybe it is the team that sort of fills that as well. Right? Like, oh, I'll just be ready for the playoffs. Yeah. You know? Uh, we'll come back.
36:50
Wyatt Tomchek Brickyard 400, wrestling. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:57
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
37:15
Back on a numbers game, live from San Francisco and Las Vegas, Gil Alexander in the Bay, Kelly Bidlin back at our, uh, studios there at Circa Resort Casino.
37:24
Uh, before we get to Wyatt Tomchek, our buddy, uh, we have a 59 at the 3M Open, Kelly. W- we do. 59 on the PGA Tour. Michael Kim is your leader now, just finished up his round, 59. He is 14 under for the tournament.
37:43
Wow. 12 under on his round today. Whew. Did we have a 58 earlier this year? Oh, gosh, did we? I don't think so. Was it, did Jim Furyk... What, what am I... I don't know.
37:55
Yeah, Jim Furyk shot a 58 at the, uh- Oh, so long ago... Travelers. Oh, no, no, I'm, I'm sorry, not this year, 10, um, n- not this year. I misspoke. 10 years ago, precisely at the Travelers, Jim Furyk shot a 58.
38:07
I think that's the lowest I ever remember, and that might be, yeah, that is, that is actually, I'm being told, yeah, tied for the record. Yeah, there, there's not many in the 50s club, that's for sure.
38:14
There's, there's not many. Bryson DeChambeau had, yeah, Bryson DeChambeau had a 58, but that was on the LIV Tour a few years ago.
38:20
Um- Yeah, he goes, it was a par, it's a par 71 out there at TPC Twin Cities, so 12 under 59 for Michael Kim today. Whew. One shot from the PGA Tour all-time low round record. Wow. Uh, real quick. What is this?
38:35
They're actually showing it on Golf Channel right now. Sub 60 rounds since 2017, looks like that is 11 I'm counting.
38:43
Furyk, Michael Kim, Jake Knapp, Hayden Springer, Cameron Young, Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Chappell, Brandt Snedeker, Adam Hadwin, and Justin Thomas. Man. Okay. Um, real quick, Red Sox 80 to 1 to win the month of July.
38:58
Just throw it up on the board. Three games set with the Blue Jays at Fenway tonight, tomorrow, Sunday. Then four games at Sactown against the July worst Athletics, finishing with one game against the Dodgers.
39:12
Five and three. If you go five and three, you don't even have to look at the scoreboard. You'll win it. Let's go Red Sox. Let's go, man. What do you got, Kelly? Let's go.
39:18
All right, bets that I've made throughout the week here, uh, some NBA win totals and then one NFL bet. Bears over 415 and a half points scored. We talked about this one yesterday.
39:28
And then earlier in the week, some NBA win total bets for me as these are coming out. Jazz over 35 and a half, Rockets over 47 and a half, and Pistons under 50 and a half.
39:38
Gonna be interested to see how these Eastern Conference ones get, uh, reshuffled as LeBron James joins the Philadelphia 76ers. LeBron James to the Sixers.
39:48
Congratulations to everybody who had him going to the Sixers in prediction markets. Jensen Lewis earlier on the show, Yankees, Phillies under eight today. Cubs, Pirates under eight and a half.
39:57
Those are the two bets he likes the most. Phillies minus one, plus 109.
40:01
Brewers minus one and a half on the run line, minus 117 in that game against the Rockies where he also, uh, I believe he has a total in that, in that game as well, uh, the Rockies, Brewers.
40:11
We double up the bet here on the screen. But he's also on the run line. In addition to being on the Brewers run line in that game, he's also on the Tigers in the run line against the Royals today as well.
40:21
Um, also heard from Chris Fallica, The Bear. Uh, the Bing Crosby-Del Mar race number 10 tomorrow. He's on the number five horse, Cornucopian, at 3 to 1. Cornucopian the play, again, Del Mar tomorrow.
40:36
And then, uh, his college football plays. Texas Tech, um, Texas Tech minus one and a half games versus Texas at, uh, at that price right there on your screen, minus 140. 140.
40:47
Georgia minus a half a win, plus 130 versus Ohio State. Oregon minus four and a half games at plus 125 versus Nebraska.
40:56
And then a win total, which we really didn't get to flesh out, USC under eight and a half wins this year for Lincoln Riley's crew. And then Tyler Shoemaker, he's got three, uh, bullish college football season wins.
41:08
Love it. Love it. Arkansas four and a half, not low enough, under. Colorado four and a half wins, not low enough, under. And Southern Miss three and a half wins, not low enough, under. All three from Tyler Shoemaker.
41:21
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's the, uh, the people's champion, one of our crowd favorites, always here to, uh, produce the show when needed, and certainly the man who makes sure the mega pod gets on each and every week.
41:30
It's Wyatt Tomchek, the voice of UNLV Women's Basketball joining us in studio. What up, Wyatt?
41:36
Oh, man, my only day filling in for Danny, and, uh, LeBron James, uh, decides to sign with the Sixers, and it messed up my, uh, entering in picks for Jensen that, uh, it's Rockies, Brewers over eight and a half, minus 114.
41:48
So that was, uh- Thank you, sir... that was, uh, that was my fault on that. Thank you, sir. Fired. Oh, okay. Not allowed back on Monday. Done. Yep. That's it. It's the end of the segment. Gil suspended, Wyatt fired. Yep.
41:57
[laughs] Cle- we're cleaning house here today on a numbers game. That's it. He's never coming back. All right, Wyatt, a few things to talk to you about.
42:04
One, just because we talked about SEC all morning, you do this SEC survivor pool. Are you doing that? Are you gonna participate in that again this year?
42:13
Yep, once that email comes out, uh, I will be signing up, and, uh, I have a lot of fun with it. It's, it's, it's really interesting.
42:19
Obviously now with the SEC expanding over the last couple years is that you have a couple weeks where you have to pick two teams.
42:24
So, um, you know, trying to find, like the teams like Arkansas, you see Tyler Shoemaker has a under on the win total of four and a half. You gotta play those teams in non-conference.
42:34
Fi- find, you know, the cookie cutter match up, so, uh, it's been a challenge. I've made it, I think the farthest I've made it is like week nine or week 10, somewhere around there. And what is it?
42:43
It becomes two teams a week at some point?
42:46
So, so you have to, so there's, I think there was, what, 13 weeks, 13 or 14 weeks in the college football season, but there's 16 SEC teams, so there's a couple weeks where you have to double up Got it. Okay...
42:58
how long you been doing this, Wyatt? And, and how far, how long do you go, go back with these guys?
43:02
I think it is, this'll be my fourth year, and it's a buddy who knew somebody who knew somebody, and he just gave me the email. And he's like, "You wanna join?" I was like, "Heck, yeah." Okay. Ah.
43:12
So I'm gonna get Chris Felica and Gil Alexander. Yes. They wanna join, so I'm excited. Kelly- That's right... the invitation's, uh, up for, uh, there for you. Oh, of course. Of course, I'm in. I, I- Yeah...
43:20
this is my, one of my favorite parts of the show today on the VSIN++ subscription, so you guys didn't hear it on air. But the, uh, the Chris Felica wanting to be a part of the SEC survivor, uh, group.
43:30
And I'm like, "Yeah, I'm sure- $10... they're gonna love to have you. I'm sure of it." [laughs] The $10 buy-in pool. That's right.
43:35
All right, Wyatt, uh, Brickyard 400, Denny Hamlin is the short shot at plus 350, followed in the odds by Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, William Byron, everybody else double digits. Who you got?
43:49
Well, you know, I w- I was able to do, uh, Gone Racing with our, uh, old friends, uh, Geoff Motley. Brendan Gaughan couldn't be there, uh- Oh, nice... yesterday. So I was kinda looking at this.
44:00
You know, for me, I don't really bet a lot of guys to win. I'm more of a top five, top 10 group, uh, matchups. But I like... There's two guys that really stand out to me.
44:09
Bubba Wallace, who won the race last year, he needs a good result. He's kinda close on that playoff cut o- cutoff line.
44:14
And I believe, uh, you know, momentum is, is, i- is key in everything, and I'm gonna go with, uh, Joey Logano at 16 to 1 who won here, uh, who won last week at North Wilkesboro. He was great. And, um, uh, what was it?
44:27
You know, he had a good shot at winning last year but cut a tire late in the race. Watch this, Kelly. Joey Logano used to be Joe Gibbs Racing but is no longer Joe Gibbs Racing? Yes, that- That true?
44:37
He left Joe Gibbs Racing back in 2012. Wow. Wow. Thank you very much. Well done, Gil. Thank you very much. Thank you. I kind of have a Nascar, I have a Nascar betting question, too.
44:44
I, w- uh, Wyatt just referenced something that you and I reference all the time when we're talking golf and tennis. How much, like, recent form versus track history comes into play when you're handicapping Nascar?
44:57
Like, I, i- i- what's most important to you? Um, yeah, I like to look at, at recent results. Now, remember, this is, uh, this Nascar, um... It's, it's a new car. It's called the, the Next Gen car.
45:11
At Indianapolis Motor Speedway, they didn't race on the oval for a handful of years, so 2024 was the first season they raced with that car. So I only look back the last two races. Okay.
45:20
Uh, sometimes you look back three or four, but usually that. And then the other thing I, I look at is, um, you know, practice.
45:26
I look at, at, at speeds, um, your five-lap average speed, 10, 15, and kinda judge it from there.
45:32
So you might care recent form wise, you might care more about practice week of than how they've done the past couple races. Yes. Yes. Okay. One. Interesting.
45:41
That was always, when we had, when we had Jeff Coleandro on weekly for Nascar, that was always his thing, the practice- Practice... right before. Yeah, that makes sense... the day before. Yeah. That makes sense. Yeah.
45:49
We t- we talking about practice actually mattered big time to him. [laughs] Um, any group plays, Wyatt, or no? Yeah. No group plays? Yeah, there was a couple.
45:57
The group plays that I, uh, I was really interested in, uh, group A, I like, uh, Kyle Larson at plus 300. Kyle, the last, uh, two races, he won in 2024, and then he finished second in 2025.
46:08
He had a good car last week in North Wilkesboro. He got caught up in, uh, a pit road accident. Um, but, you know, this is a prestigious race.
46:16
It's one of the Nascar Crown Jewels, and he usually rises up i- in big moments like that, so I like him. Although, it is tough.
46:22
I will say Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, just a note for people, the Toyotas have been just legendary, uh, this season, so it'll be a tough, tough, uh, battle for Larson, but I like that number.
46:32
And another one I liked was, uh, Brad Keselowski in group D at plus 350. Brad's another one of those drivers who needs a good finish to try to get himself into the playoffs. He finished top 10 here last year.
46:42
I like him in that group. The, the other driver that concerns me in that group is, uh, Carson Hocevar in, uh, group D. He has a lot of good speed, but he's, uh, it's very hit or miss for him.
46:51
He either is gonna finish top five or he's gonna get caught up in a wreck. All right, Wyatt, take us home with wrasslin'. What do we need to know? Well, WWE Summer Slam, that is the number two event.
47:01
It'll be in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It's a two-day event. Um- Summer Slam... Saturday and Sunday. [laughs] We don't know, so there, it's, it... I don't know who's on each day.
47:11
They haven't announced it yet, but there's some, some good match-ups. You got a Hell in a Cell match, Oba Femi versus Brock Lesnar. Oh, Hell in a Cell. You guys know, you guys know who Brock Lesnar is, so. Yeah. Yeah.
47:20
Sure, sure. I know Brock. Um, I, uh, one I'm looking forward to, CM Punk versus Cody Rhodes for the undisputed WWE championship. Uh, I don't know who's gonna win that one.
47:28
I think Oba Femi's gonna win the Hell in a Cell match. Between Punk and Rhodes, that's a, that's a toss-up for me. Another one I'm really looking forward to is Roman Reigns versus Seth Rollins.
47:37
These guys got history, Kelly and Gil. Ooh. History, a ton of history. History. And- It's all on the line at Summer Slam... and you guys probably know Danhausen versus Dominik Mysterio. Danhausen, my guy. Ah.
47:49
You are cursed. Who doesn't know that? [laughs] See you.
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