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Jul 25, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 25, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 25, 2025
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34:38
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:11
Welcome to a Numbers Game, day two of Kelly Biblid and Steve Fezzik. Hold on to your butts. Right, Steve? That's, uh, we made it through one day. We, we didn't get fired.
0:21
I, I, I didn't, I didn't hear anything bad, so we're back. Apparently they liked us enough, so. Or, or they're not listening. Or they're not listening. There's a lot going on in town, so yeah.
0:29
[laughs] There is definitely a possibility as well.
0:32
Um, a th- a, a f- a farewell to Dave Ross for his Las Vegas stint, him going out to Kentucky, going to be helping up, opening up w- our VSiN and the Circa operations out there.
0:43
Couldn't be a better ambassador, was just on for the last segment with those guys.
0:46
You made a joke a little bit in the break of asking how early the crew gets here, 'cause I know th- this experience is becoming new for you, uh, wake up this early, prep work and everything.
0:56
And one of your questions was, when do they get time to drink? Well, Dave being the good guy that he is, he brought in a bunch of booze for the crew.
1:03
So my only worry is that they're gonna start some time during the show, and I don't know. So if things get a little sloppy towards the end of the show, that's, that's why. That's what's going on. I like that.
1:11
You know, Mitch and Pauley for years, 4:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m., when do you drink? Uh, b- before and after the show. [laughs] Uh, y- yeah, exactly. That was, uh... I, I got to produce that during the pandemic.
1:24
Uh, luckily there was no sports going on, so you didn't really have to worry about staying up too late. But yeah, that was the, the midnight wake-up call. That's quite an alarm to set, [laughs] that is for sure.
1:34
That, uh, that one's a little wild one. Uh, Steve Fezzik, if ever you guys, if you guys don't know Steve, two-time Hilton Super Contest winner, ma- a man who made his name betting contests, uh, early on in the days.
1:46
Guess what? We're gonna do a lot of contest talk today coming up on the show. We're also gonna b- bring back a classic for him to take part of, Are We Sure? That's coming up next. We will go through that.
1:55
I know Steve, every- everybody who listens regularly to this show, Steve, they wanna be a part of Are We Sure? So we're gonna allow you to be a part of that this week, okay? Love it.
2:03
Um, contests at 10, uh, 10:30 Eastern. 10:45 Eastern, Greg Peterson with about 17 MLB bets today. We will, uh, try to get through as many as we possibly can with him.
2:14
Uh, and then 11 o'clock Eastern, we're gonna talk betting the Hall of Fame Game, and, and Steve does have an opinion on that. That is in six days from now, so, uh, don't let that slip away.
2:24
And then just we're gonna go back and forth on our thoughts on betting pre-season. I know you've heard it 1,000 times, I've heard it 1,000 times, Steve, both ways. You can make a lot of money betting fr- uh, pre-season.
2:33
You should never bet the NFL pre-season. We both heard both of those. You and I will talk about our opinion on that matter.
2:39
Um, as well as you have a lot of Game of the Year bets to get through, so we're gonna talk through some of those. We're gonna talk through, guess what? Steve's got a blackjack quiz for everybody to take at home.
2:48
We're gonna have some fun with that, talk some blackjack strategy, some casino strategy, how to w- uh, get those g- get those reward points up and everything like that. All that coming in the second hour.
2:59
And maybe the one a lot of you will be looking forward to, we talk a lot about the steakhouses, uh, on this show. Uh, we like to talk about the nice places to go get a drink on the Strip.
3:09
Steve's got the list of top five meals under $20, correct? In town. We can't all go to Delilah's every night.
3:17
[laughs] Or SW Steakhouse or Carbone, so this is for the, the vast bulk of you that just wanna go out and good eats cheap. It, it's tough to eat like Gil Alexander, that's for sure.
3:29
[laughs] It is tough to eat like Gil Alexander. Um, okay, so start with a couple things from, uh, yesterday.
3:34
Uh, we did see one of our first significant trades in Major League Baseball, Josh Naylor traded from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Seattle Mariners. I know you had a thought on, uh, on this, Steve.
3:45
We've been wondering kinda all season how good c- can this Mariners team be. We see them make a move like this. How significant is this for you?
3:53
So right after I get a text from my buddy Brad F, um, by the way, on Twitter, I believe he's @BradsBestBets, and we talked about text a friend. Mm.
4:02
You know, in terms of coordinating with people, and he's like, "Stevie, get me some Seattle 30/1." This is a game-changer completely. And so what's interesting is he's attacking Seattle.
4:13
He feels they're a legitimate contender now to win the World Series. My take was, and we gave this out yesterday, Arizona under 79 and a half wins, season wins, they are donezo, and they're already starting to sell.
4:26
So, um, tale of two teams, best of times and the worst of times this year for those teams. Yeah, I guess the big, uh, the big question for Arizona is, uh, where does this, where does this stop now, right?
4:36
Is he the first of several that we're gonna see, uh, moved? A- and I think the, uh, common opinion out there is yeah, it's probably gonna be, uh, a couple that we see go.
4:45
Wanted to bring this up, and you probably caught it yesterday if you've been watching, uh, watching, following WNBA. Obviously, Caitlin Clark has been the story for the past couple years.
4:53
Uh, that groin injury she picked up July 15th, now the, the team is saying that, that she is, there's no timetable for her return. I, uh, Steve, wanted to bring this up. I'm not a big WNBA bettor.
5:04
I don't think you are either. Obviously, Caitlin Clark though, superstar of the sport. When you hear no timetable for a return, that is never a good, uh, good, good sentence to hear.
5:14
N- not at all, and you know, hey, just, it's just me, if I was the commissioner, I would probably protect my biggest asset and stop letting her get mugged on a nightly basis and get, and get injured.
5:25
Um, by the way, I used to bet a lot on the WNBA. The markets used to be so inefficient. Yeah. And it just got a lot harder. And frankly, I never really t- Personal taste, I never liked the WNBA. Mm-hmm.
5:36
So I feel if you're gonna bet a sport, all things being equal, try to bet the softest sport that... But if it's not really soft, bet the sport you love. Yeah. So if you don't love it, let it go.
5:47
Yeah, no, and you're right. That, I mean, that market's changed over the past couple years, right? Far more people betting the WNBA, it's become sharper.
5:53
That was, you know, where we used to talk about me betting the CFL, and I'm getting back into it. That's what I used to love about the CFL.
5:59
How many, how many football weeks do you see where lines move, spreads move four or five points in a single week? It's wild. And, and they move so slowly. Yeah.
6:07
[laughs] Like, like, like in the WNBA, like Maya Moore could get injured during a game, right? Best player in the league, and yet the, the, the, the live wagering would barely blip. No...
6:16
But it, and now everyone's watching it, so it's much more, um, of a, the dynamic market is much more efficient. Yeah, absolutely.
6:23
Uh, circling back to NFL, uh, training camp's getting going, and this will be kinda news coming down every single day from different camps.
6:30
I think the b- by far biggest story that we got yesterday, Raiders, uh, have released Christian Wilkins, their b- big defensive tackle move they b- brought in from the Dolphins.
6:40
Um, reminder, they signed him in free agency last year to a five-year, $110 million contract. Ends up just playing five games for the Raiders. He is out.
6:53
Uh, this was kind of a weird story I think we're gonna find out more about still, Steve. He had been recovering from a Jones fracture, which he suffered last October.
7:03
Uh, there has been videos [laughs] out there of him dancing recently, and him still sl- but, uh, slowly recovering is what they're calling it. So, um, they let him go.
7:13
The Raiders avoid the remaining 35.2 million of guaranteed money left on his contract. How do you avoid a guaranteed contract?
7:20
[laughs] I, I think, uh, if you broke some of, a part of your con- your side of the contract is probably how that ends up happening, but. I don't think dancing would qualify. [laughs] So I think that's one we're...
7:31
Look, I think that's one we're gonna hear some more about here in the coming days. This Raiders team overall, though, I did wanna talk to you about where you stand on them.
7:39
We hit a lot on the AFC West yesterday of kind of, but really the Broncos and the Chargers seem to be the two hot teams everybody wants to talk about this off-season, how well they could do.
7:48
This Raiders team, how much of an improvement, if any, do you expect to see from a season ago? Significant improvement.
7:54
You know, I have a buddy, um, Jim, he's a professional, semi-professional bettor, and you hear me say that a lot. Mm. Like, I network all the time, so I love networking with people.
8:04
And he's like, "Fez, you make this way too difficult. If you have a good coach and you have a good quarterback, you bet that team to go over their season wins.
8:12
If you have a bad quarterback and a bad coach, you go under."
8:16
Now, the Raiders have probably a, an average quarterback in Geno Smith, and Pete Carroll's probably a slightly above coach at this point in his career, but you know what? The delta- Mm-hmm...
8:28
the change from last year are such upgrades, I think you can only look to play the Raiders over, and that's why you've seen their season win number go from six and a half to approximately 7.1 right now.
8:41
All the money bullish on the Raiders.
8:42
Yeah, I, I mean, I think out, what we saw out of Geno Smith a year ago, look, it might not have been what everybody was hoping for with that set, set of receivers on the Seahawks, but all I keep thinking about is how often that offensive line was getting pushed around, and he had to deal with that all season in Seattle.
8:57
Um- Very accurate. Very accurate quarterback. Very accurate, yeah.
9:00
And you're gonna get that with a, I mean, Brock Bowers, who, I, I mean, l- put on a show last year looking like one of the best tight ends in the league by the end of the season.
9:09
Um, now you bring in Ashton Jeanty, definitely some weapons on that offense. We'll see, see how they do in a, in a very crowded AFC West, uh, with a lot of threats there.
9:17
We did, wanted to circle back to the Justin Field story, 'cause this has come, [laughs] come a long way since we basically broke the news of the, uh, about 24 hours ago that he had been carted off the field.
9:27
Um, guess what? Dislocated toe, so not that bad. We hit that by the end of the show yesterday, Steve. Uh, saw video this morning, he's back out on the practice field. So these are the things, bettors beware, right?
9:38
This is some of the news that you get during training camps on injuries. There's a lot of uncertainty. Guess what?
9:44
There's also not a lot of reason why the teams need to come forward immediately and disclose all the details.
9:51
But, but the problem is, is that you have to bet with that uncertainty, with the incomplete and im- imperfect information. If you wait for it to be confirmed that he has an ACL tear or something like that- Sure.
10:01
That number flies away, yeah... then it's gonezo. So sometimes you're gonna wind up with market numbers that you bet hoping for the...
10:08
Well, you never hope for the worst, but you, you hope the kid has a, a, a speedy recovery from a year, [laughs] a, a year-ending injury, and it didn't happen here. Yeah, right. Yeah, exactly.
10:17
And then the other one, uh, Dolphins, uh, we saw this Arty Burns go down with an injury, uh, a couple, this was a couple days ago, with the team announcing yesterday, though, it is a torn ACL for him.
10:29
Dolphins already one of the worst secondaries in the league coming into the season. Um, Steve, where do you see AFC East? Okay, Bills I, I think we're gonna agree are the best team.
10:39
I, they, they're, they're, they're my favorite to, uh, go win the Super Bowl. I think they finally get it done this year. No bets, though, as we talked about, Steve.
10:46
This is not the time to go out and make a, to win the Super bowl bet, especially on a heavy favorite. So no bets there. Uh, w- how do you see this AFC East stacking up?
10:54
I am not as high on the, on it as some on the, on, on the Patriots love that we keep hearing. But where do you fall on them, the Dolphins, a- and even this Jets team?
11:02
And real important for those of, who are following along and seeing, um, you know, the visuals on these season wins. Mm. So the, the books put the season wins up, uh, on half points.
11:11
A lot of them do, because they don't wanna have any pushes. So like, like we show on the graphic, Bills 12 and a half, and of course that carries heavy vig to the under. Right.
11:19
There's 11 halves, heavy vig to the over, et cetera. But I think the number one theme is that bad news for the Jets, bad news for the Dolphins, means that exacta Bills, Patriots looking more profitable now. I like that.
11:32
I like that. Okay, plenty of more to come on the show. Next, coming up next, are we sure the Steelers will finally go under their win total? It's another thrilling addition, addition of Are We Sure? when we come back.
11:56
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Welcome back to A Numbers Game. Kelly Bidlin, Steve Fezzik in the Circa Studios here to close out the week here on A Numbers Game.
12:12
And we're gonna go right out to the progressive guest line. I don't wanna waste any time here, because he's got a lot of bets to talk to us about. The great Greg Peterson, VSiN host, host of the Baseball Betting Show.
12:23
You will find all of that over at gunit_81. Hit him up on X, Twitter, whatever you wanna call it. Um, and you can always, always talk with Greg there about some of his bets. Greg, thanks for joining the show.
12:36
I wanna waste no time, because you have, I think, 10 bets I'm looking at, uh, for us to get through. Diamondbacks and Pirates, you got a play on the side and the total here. Where are you looking today? Yep, absolutely.
12:49
And with the, uh, San Diego Padres, it's been really...
12:52
Or with the, uh, Pirates, it's been really interesting to watch Mike Burroughs and the way that he's been able to emerge, as Burroughs, he's been getting about nine and a half strikeouts per nine innings, and he's backed up by a Pirates team that is dead last in the big leagues in terms of runs per game.
13:05
They've got three guys on the roster, the Pirates do, with more than four home runs this season, and that's a big reason why I did take a shot on the under, because Ryan Nelson, while he's not anything special, he's been able to go out there, post up about a 352 ERA, seven and a half strikeouts per nine innings.
13:21
So he's been able to do his part. And for the Diamondbacks, they traded Josh Naylor last night. So this team is now in sell mode. They are trading off pieces.
13:30
Corbin Carroll's up on the scene, so it's coming off the injured list. So I did take a shot on the under, but that said, with Ryan Nelson, I've actually really liked what I've seen out of him.
13:38
I think that he's able to do just enough to be able to get the job done here.
13:41
That Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen is rather rough, to say the least, but again, I think the big key is you're going up against a Pirates team that simply cannot hit.
13:49
So took a shot on the Diamondbacks on the money line and the under. Greg, I played Ryan Nelson, uh, first five innings Arizona only. Would you endorse that as a, um, alternative to your bet? Absolutely.
14:01
I went full game personally, but if you wanna go first five and you don't wanna deal with that Diamondbacks bullpen, trust me, I understand why, because it has been a Diamondbacks bullpen that, guys not named Shelby Miller, have been an adventure all season long, and there are a few teams with just brutal bullpens this year, and the Diamondbacks certainly fit the bill.
14:18
So looking at the Diamondbacks personally on the full game, but if you wanna go first five, I do think that that's a solid look as well. All right, coming up, 7:05 Eastern first pitch, Phillies and Yankees.
14:28
That is a great game tonight. Yankees minus 162 favorites with Will Warren on the, uh, mound. Phillies plus 133, uh, dog here. You are playing the total, though, not going to the side. What are you liking here, Greg?
14:41
I took a shot on the under. With Taijuan Walker, he's actually been a relatively solid starter this year.
14:46
Last year was giving up 2.6 home runs per nine innings, was just getting absolutely shelled, and this year he's been able to cut that number in half.
14:53
Now, I was able to find the Phillies at north of a plus 140 on the money line overnight. Still a little bit of, like, plus 139, plus 140.
15:00
If you're able to get above plus 140, I think that you've got a bit of value there, because with the New York Yankees, bullpen has been a little bit suspect recently.
15:08
But for the Phillies, all of a sudden Matt Strahm, Ryan Kerkering, these guys have been a little bit better.
15:13
You look at the season-long numbers for the Phillies bullpen, it certainly has been rough, but they found a guy in Max Laser who's been able to do a solid job as well.
15:21
For the Yankees, as we know, this is a team that's been really hitting well. Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, all those guys doing a rock solid job.
15:28
But now that we've gotten to a total of 10, just a little bit of a point of no return, especially with a guy Will Warren, who his fielding independent is about 1.4 points lower than his ERA.
15:37
He's not really giving up home runs. He's getting 10 and a half strikeouts per nine innings. So I trusted in the under, and like I said, at a plus 140, that'd be my value point on the Phillies money line.
15:46
Okay, I like it. I'm looking at, uh, DraftKings right now. That total actually up to 10 and a half, so you can even get a little bit better number right now, uh, than Greg got overnight.
15:54
Heading to, uh, the, the town that Steve Fezzik built, Cincinnati, the Reds, uh, hosting, uh, the Tampa Bay Rays, uh, here tonight. This is a 7:10 Eastern, uh, first pitch, and you have a play on the side here, sir.
16:08
Yep, absolutely, and we are on to Cincinnati. And I do think that with the Reds, they do provide a little bit of value on the money line. Zach Littell has just been giving up bombs.
16:17
He's giving up about 1.8 home runs per nine innings, and he's very lucky to have a sub four ERA. His fielding independent is sitting above a five, so that's a big concern for him.
16:27
And for the Tampa Bay Rays, it's been a bullpen that has been a little bit hit or miss.
16:31
The top guys, Erik Goorsem, Pete Fairbanks, the closer, they've all been relatively solid, but they've had a lot of long guys come in, not necessarily do their part, so that does give you a little bit of caution.
16:41
And for Nick Martinez, he's doing a good job of keeping things out in front of him. 1.2 home runs, a little bit over two walks allowed per nine innings.
16:48
So while he's not necessarily some sort of a magnificent pitcher or anything like that, he's not gonna go out there, beat himself.
16:54
For this Reds team, they do play in Great American Small Park, as they like to say it, and we've noticed ever since Austin Hayes has gotten back off the injured list, he's been able to give this team some good production as well.
17:03
So being able to get the Reds out right around pick and price, I do like that money line. And at the nine and a half, I think that's gone up a little bit too high.
17:10
I do think that Martinez doing for some positivity, so I like the under. All right, big American League match up here coming up next, 7:10 Eastern first pitch. Blue Jays at the Tigers. Tigers a minus 114 favorite.
17:24
This has, uh, this has grown a little bit since where you bet it overnight, but you are looking at Detroit here. Yes, I am. Kadir Montero has actually been quite good when he's been at home.
17:34
Overall for the season, in the neighbor of a 4.26, 4.28 ERA.
17:38
Does give up a little bit too much of the deep ball, but the big key here is that the Blue Jays offense has not been quite the same away from home rather than at home.
17:46
Entering into the series, this changed a little bit with the 11 spot that they put up on Thursday. They were averaging about 3.85 runs per game away from home, 5.35 runs per game at home.
17:57
A full run and a half per game difference with the Blue Jays. Certainly George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., these guys are rounding into form.
18:04
But I do think that a Tigers team that, 13 runs in their last seven games coming off of the All-Star break, I do think that this team is gonna round back into form.
18:12
I think under the radar, by the way, with the Tigers, not being talked about enough has been the injury to Kerry Wood Carpenter, such a big part of that lineup, and ever since he has been out, it has been a Tigers team that has been struggling a little bit, but I think that this is a good spot for them.
18:25
I do think that that Tigers bullpen that was so good a season ago is gonna round back into form.
18:30
They pretty much, eight innings yesterday in that game against the Blue Jays, so they didn't have to throw out there the trustworthy guys. So right now I'm seeing that total of nine.
18:37
José Berríos, on the flip side for the Blue Jays, has actually been better on the road rather than at home. Just a complete reversal from his career numbers.
18:44
Like, for his career, typically he's, like, a point better with his ERA when he's at home rather than away from home, so it's been a little bit of a wacky year for him. So I did take a shot on this nine under.
18:53
I had to take a shot on the Tigers money line. Greg, whenever I play a home team and I play the under, I almost always put a parlay in as well. So, like, your handicap is Toronto isn't gonna hit in this game.
19:06
That's a big part of the handicap because they're not as good on the road. I also love the correlation. See, Kelly, I'm not anti-parlay. I parlay all the time. Yeah. But it, it has to be correlated.
19:15
There has to be a reason. The base winner and I always fight about when to parlay.
19:18
But in this case, if Detroit does indeed win, you get an excellent chance for only an eight-and-a-half inning game, which shortens the game, which makes the under nine even better.
19:26
So, uh, put me down on Greg's two plays, but I wanna parlay it. I wanna play Detroit with the under. Okay, I like it. I'm gonna move on to a game next that I know you're both involved in, Padres at the Cardinals.
19:36
Uh, Steve is on the side, uh, with San Diego, uh, uh, this evening, Greg. You are looking at the total in this game, though.
19:44
Yep, absolutely, because you've got a guy in Miles Mikolas who, he just gives up a lot of general contact here. I was able to get in on this at an eight.
19:52
Even at an eight and a half, I would still be taking a look at the over, just mainly because with Miles Mikolas, he doesn't get any strikeouts whatsoever.
20:00
And for Nick Pivetta on the flip side, he's been much different when he's been away from home rather than at home. At home, he's giving up less than 0.7 home runs per nine innings.
20:08
He's posting up an ERA that is below a 2.30. On the road, this is nearly double. On the road, he's been giving up closer to 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and that's just a reason why he didn't pan out in Boston.
20:19
When he was in Boston, he always had better road numbers than home numbers because when he was in Boston, he would give up the deep ball. That ballpark just was not built for him.
20:27
So when Nick Pivetta's on the road, you can oftentimes find a little bit of value on him. And I will say, only plus 113 on the St. Louis Cardinals, I would need a little bit more.
20:36
If I could get a, like, more of a plus 120, then I would consider that. So we're trying to see if that goes up there a little bit more. But that said, I do think they're gonna be able to get runs in this game.
20:45
I am in on the over. All right, I like it. And then we got the battle in Chicago tonight, Cubs and White Sox. Uh, where are you loo- leaning towards in this game, Greg? I did take a shot on the over.
20:57
I was able to get this at an eight. This moved up to an eight and a half, and even at the eight and a half, I do like the over. Two guys are just pitching to a ton of contact.
21:04
Shota Imanaga along with Adrian Houser, both below six and a half strikeouts per nine innings. Houser's just been able to really, uh, keep the ball in the yard. He's giving up 0.3 home runs per nine innings.
21:15
I believe he's given up two home runs in, like to say it's 61 innings.
21:18
He's been really good at being able to keep the ball in the yard, but now you go up against the Cubs, a top three offense in terms of generating runs. P.J.
21:26
Strong, Seiya Suzuki, all those guys have just been magnificent in terms of being able to put bat to ball. And for the Chicago White Sox, offense has come alive, uh, for them a little bit more.
21:35
And Shota Imanaga, he's got that sterling sub three ERA, really dependent. A full one and a half points higher.
21:41
Imanaga is not gonna give up a lot of walks, but I also do think that a Cubs bullpen that has been just sort of, shall we say, a bunch of mix ma- mix and match pieces, guys like Ryan Bra wier, Daniel Palencia, and company, I don't know if they can sustain what they've done since May.
21:55
So I like the over in this spot. And if you're able to get a big plus number on the White Sox, I was seeing some plus 160s a little bit earlier. Right now, we're still seeing about a plus 165 or so.
22:05
I'd be willing to take a shot on that money line. All right, Greg Peterson, you've got 15 seconds, eight bets down, two more to go. Where, who else you betting here tonight?
22:15
We're also gonna be taking a look at the Washington Nationals on the money line with Mackenzie Goedert versus Heavy Matthews. And right now we're seeing that total at an eight. I do like the over. All right.
22:24
Thank you so much, Greg. Check him out all over the network. VSiN host here, host of the Baseball Betting Show. We thank you, sir. We'll catch up with you next week.
22:32
And on the other side, we will be talking preseason Football Hall of Fame Game, how to bet it. Stick around. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
22:49
You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Welcome back to a Numbers Game.
22:59
Kelly Biblin, Steve Fezzik here for, uh, with you for one more hour before Gil Alexander returns on Monday and the show becomes his again. So, uh, Steve and I are gonna have some fun this hour.
23:09
We're gonna be talking some blackjack, we're gonna talk some casino stuff. Uh, a lot to hit on. It's been awesome having you in for a couple days, man.
23:16
I, I like being able to talk with you about some things that, you know, Gilboy isn't as interested in talking Yeah, and, uh, I mean, Gil will be back on Monday, so everyone will be happy.
23:25
By the way, Gilly's been crushing me at tennis, and, uh, I don't know if I'm ever gonna beat him the rest of my life. Well, you, you, you had a close one a couple weeks ago, right? Is that, is that where- I-...
23:35
we're hanging that one up in the rafters? There was a miracle at Duck Creek. [laughs] Where he just had... Every, Gilly has to have an off day for me to win. That's the bottom line. Okay.
23:44
[laughs] Well, we're, yeah, we're looking forward to it. We hope Gil got some good rest and relaxation in. I know he was sitting on a beach somewhere for quite a while. So, uh, I think, I think he did that just fine.
23:53
Wanted to circle back to Greg's, uh, some of Greg's MLB bets and yours, because I know there were a couple that you saw on Greg's list that you like, but maybe from a, a First Five perspective. So we spoke about it.
24:03
Uh, I like Arizona's pitcher, but I'm, I'm not betting the bullpen. So Arizona First Five, Greg likes the Nats. I can be talked into Gore and the Nats in the First Five. It's like that movie Rounders. Remember KGB?
24:16
Oh, yeah. Where he's like, "Nyet, nyet, not tonight. No more. No more bullpen for Arizona. No more bullpen." Just check, check, check. Hit, hit, hit. Whenever I bet on teams like Atlanta and Washington and Arizona, nyet.
24:30
Check, check, all night long. He traps me with the bullpen. Pay, pay [laughs] pay this man his money. He beat me fairs and squares. I don't want... Why did, why does he, why did he have the worst Russian accent?
24:40
That's what I always thought during that entire movie. I wonder, a great actor. Great actor, terrible accent. [laughs] I never understood that. Great movie.
24:47
Isaiah Wrinkle, if you're watching right now, Isaiah Wrinkle, who's in management at this company now, Steve Fezzik, uh, when he first started here, 'kay, he started as a, a sharp associate producer, worked his way up as he should, smart, talented kid.
25:01
Poker player. Had never seen Rounders. Wow. And I said, "Your homework right away is to go home and s- watch that movie."
25:07
It's a top- Like- It's not just the top m- uh, gambling movie, it's like a top 10 movie of all time. I mean, probably Fast Times at Ridgemont High, High and Wall Street would be top two, of course, but.
25:16
I, I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm with you on that. Top, top 10- [laughs]... though, Rounders would be up there for me for sure, man. That is a must-watch. If you're a gambler, I don't know how you haven't seen that.
25:23
I like, I've been able to call out Danny Higgins this week. I, I've been able to call out Isaiah. Man, this is fun sitting in this chair. You just get to bring up people like that. That's r- that's great.
25:33
All right, Hall of Fame Game, we hit on this a little bit earlier. Uh, this is in six days from now, ladies and gentlemen, before we even hit August. July 31st, 8:00 PM Eastern, Chargers against the Lions.
25:46
We went over this a little bit earlier. Shop around, 'cause there's not, not every book does have lines up for this.
25:51
FanDuel I'm looking at right now, we're seeing the Lions as a one-and-a-half point favorite, even money. Uh, and then a 32.5 total money line, Lions minus 120, Chargers even money.
26:03
Steve, we talked a bit about it earlier. This has got teaser written all over it to me if I was gonna get involved, but is there an angle that you're looking at specifically for this game?
26:11
You know, I wanna talk about, like, that extra vig.
26:14
So you mentioned the even money, like, like, the line's basically one, but the books have it at one-and-a-half plus one-and-a-half minus 120, the extra vig is on the Chargers.
26:21
But when you tease, if you have good teaser odds, and DraftKings does have good teaser odds, six points. Now, FanDuel does not, though, who I just referenced, right? Oh. Is that the reason why they hang a one-and-a-half?
26:31
That's a, that, that- They'll take, they'll take your teaser money at minus 130 or whatever it is. That's a great point. Yeah, you can't tease at FanDuel because the teaser o- odds, odds are bad.
26:37
But, like, this is not unusual.
26:38
Like, if you ever see an odd, like, if you see a g- a game move from, like, two and it's moved to pick, but a, a sportsbook still has, like, a plus two minus 125, that is, like, a great teaser, because you know what?
26:50
The minus 125 is irrelevant to the teaser. Doesn't matter anymore, yeah. Yeah, because their, they have their teaser pricing and it's just gonna be based upon that plus two.
26:57
So, um, there are times where I'll see, like, a minus three go to, like, minus three, lay one, minus 140, and I'll do the unthinkable, Kelly.
27:05
I'll tease through the zero in the NFL, which is almost always wrong, but in this case, really they become a four-and-a-half point favorite, right?
27:13
And they're still minus three, and so I'm teasing up the plus three-and-a-half and the six-and-a-half point teaser.
27:17
Y- yeah, that, that, I was gonna say, Matt Brown and I have, have had that conversation, where it is, where most people, right, sharp bettors are not gonna think that way of tease through the zero.
27:26
It's almost a number one rule. Don't do it. But there are certain situations where you get a juiced three, and if you really like another leg, six-and-a-half takes you to three-and-a-half on the other side.
27:37
I, I've only done it a couple times that I can remember in my life, 'cause you rarely get that situation presented, right? What, what do they say? Like, this is almost like the daredevil that jumps over the cars.
27:46
Like, "Don't do this at home, people." Right, [laughs] exactly. "Trained professionals only." Yeah, this is, [laughs] uh, who is it?
27:51
Ben Rozz, one of my favorite, uh, golf handicappers out there, he'll, he'll always tweet out every week s- uh, "My favorite bet," and then someone I'm betting that you should not, right? Yes. I mean, something like that.
28:01
Yeah, you might wanna be careful with that. So yeah, Hall of Fame Game going there, and then we talked, uh, a little bit about preseason action, just overall strategies. I do get involved with it.
28:12
And like you said, I believe what you broke down was perfect. I think i-i- the only thing you can't say about preseason is that there's no way to make money off of it.
28:20
I think that if you wanna be cautious, stay away for the most part because you just don't trust what you're seeing from depth charts and coaches and all of that stuff. That's fine. That's fine.
28:30
You, you know, you're not gonna lose any money if you don't ma- if you don't make a bet. Um, it will, it is something that I will probably make, I'll say three to six bets in for during the preseason. I'm very picky.
28:42
Uh, I will be looking at quarterback depth charts heavily, like we talked about earlier. Coaches matter in preseason, right? We always see some of the ATS numbers on some of these coaches.
28:52
We know that Sean McVay doesn't care at all. [laughs] Har- Harbaugh is like, he wouldn't let his, like, grandson beat him at anything, right? He's- Right, exactly, right... right.
29:00
John Harbaugh's gonna come out there every year and make sure that he gets a couple wins.
29:04
Uh, so just wanna talk a little bit about some strategies that you'd, you utilize for, uh, betting preseason, uh, when that gets started.
29:11
Well, what personally works for me, and you bring up a great point, some people love the quarterback rotations and they love, um, what was it? Seneca Wallace type quarterback that's like Mr. August, you know?
29:21
They're- To, to Rod Taylor, for years that was the guy for me. I, it was awesome, yeah.
29:25
Guys with wheels, you know, they're trying to make the team and they're gonna t- tuck it and run in the fourth quarter when all heck breaks loose, and that works for some people.
29:32
What works best for me, I just like having my starters going longer and betting first quarter and first half. Similar, very similar to first five in baseball. I don't wanna worry about the bullpens.
29:42
I don't wanna worry about the third- and fourth-string quarterbacks. I wanna just have more starter time in the first quarter and first half. Where do you think this...
29:50
So we s- so we hear these quotes from Zach Taylor about, okay, we heard it from the spring, the s- they, they're aware of these slow starts to the season and it's something they need to correct.
29:58
Then we hear just over the past couple days that he is going to play starters more in the preseason How do you read into that, Steve?
30:05
Because I'm still not sure how much, how much I can take away from that with the Ferraris that they have on that offense, oh boy, do I get nervous about leaving out there, them, uh, a- they're, leaving them out there for longer than they should be.
30:20
I like to call this the good story, and I'm a big believer in, what is it, the good stories, bet the Bengals and bet the Bengals first quarter, first half. Okay. All right? So, but you know what?
30:31
If you're gonna bet the good story, bet it before everyone else.
30:34
So when the line first comes up, get down fine on the Bengals, let's say they're minus 120 in the first quarter or first half, and then it steams up to minus 160 because the narrative gets dispersed.
30:46
They're, "Oh, the Bengals are gonna, really taking this seriously," and then fade it right at post. Okay. And bet the other guys. I like that.
30:52
So Bengals, they have, it, their first game, August 7th, Bengals against the Eagles is the, their first pre-season game. Joe Burrow, does he play the whole first half? Oh, of course not. One series.
31:05
I was, okay, I was gonna say, in the first game, we are not seeing that, right? Oh- So how, how aggressive do you, we really think Cincinnati's gonna be with this? Over/under three and a half passes.
31:14
You know, I'm w- okay, 'cause I completely agree with your numbers there.
31:17
I'm just, I, what Zach Taylor's talking about, I mean, maybe by the time we get to week three, they're playing the Colts, may- that's when we see some of the starters go a little bit longer, right?
31:26
I, I think week two they play a half, and then week three they play a quarter. Okay. Remember, they didn't play at all, so any- Right... so, so if they play two plays, they just went up by an infinite amount [laughs].
31:34
[laughs] That's right. Yeah, way more than they were. Um, okay. I think, yeah, we got enough time here. Let's get to, I wanna get to your game of the year bets, uh, that you have made. This is great.
31:43
I, I, I mean, I don't wanna speak for you. Would you say this is one of the things that you do best on, during NFL off-season, picking off these numbers before the season? Yes, and this, this isn't rocket science here.
31:54
I am basically making bets because I made numbers on these games, and the odds makers at DraftKings made their numbers, and we disagree, and it's pure power rating, so I'm just gonna bet w- the num- the g- the good numbers.
32:05
Bold prediction, all five of these are gonna beat the closing number. Okay, I like that. So we'll start week two.
32:10
Uh, you've got a bet in the Steelers-Seahawks game, and, uh, Larry, you guys in the back, we can just throw this up so everybody can get a, a, start making notes at home for all of these games, 'cause you will, only certain shops with these posted, uh, all these we pulled from DraftKings, right, these numbers.
32:25
Uh, so go over there if you are, do live in a DraftKing, uh, DraftKings jurisdiction. And Steve, just run through these. We start with week two and we go all the way through week six. One bet a week. That's right.
32:34
Keep it simple. Uh, Steelers are better than the Seahawks. I don't know if you heard this, Mike Tomlin's never had a losing year. He's- What?
32:40
He, he better win this one because the Seahawks are way down, and with a new quarterback, um, the Steelers minus one half, very cheap. So week two we are on the Steelers.
32:50
Moving forward, I'm just gonna run through all these, Kelly, if I can. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely. Uh, week three, the Colts plus one half at the Titans. I'm very high on the Titans, but the market isn't gonna be high.
32:58
The Colts are better than the Titans, and the Titans have one and a half for home field, so how in the heck can the Colts be catching plus one and a half? Uh, week four, Raiders plus one half at home versus the Bears.
33:09
I'm actually high on the Raiders. I think they're underrated. I'm down on the Bears. I think they're overrated, so this is a natural bet to back my home team.
33:18
Uh, week five, Colts minus one half against those same Raiders.
33:22
Hey, the Colts are still better than the Raiders, and the Raiders have to travel all the way to Indy, where the home field's worth at least one half, so the Colts have to be favored closer to three, so we're gonna back the Colts week five, laying one half.
33:34
And one more, week six, the Patriots minus three at the hapless Saints. I don't think the Saints are gonna win a game this year, Kelly. Yeah. So all right, they're over/unders down to five and a half, heading to five.
33:47
Patriots are supposed to win eight and a half, and we're all picking the Patriots to finish second in their division, and picking the Saints to have the worst record in the NFL. And guess what? You know what?
33:56
500 teams, they should be more than minus three against the worst team in the league. So we'll lay the three with the Patriots at the Saints. Yeah, I, I was looking at these earlier when you sent them over to me.
34:06
I think that is the one that is my favorite as well, and it is, uh, look, I'm not, I'm not as high on the Patriots this, uh, this off-season as, as seeming a lot of other people are, but man, I think the Saints are a disaster, and you give now five weeks for this Patriots offense to get a little bit more comfortable with each other.
34:24
I, I'm with you. I think laying three is gonna be, it's gonna be more than that by the time, uh, we hit, uh, hit that week. All right, time for s-ca- uh, some casino gaming talk. Can you pass Steve's blackjack quiz?
34:35
Find out when we come back. [upbeat music]
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