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Jul 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 29, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | July 29, 2025
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33:50
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Midland, y'all. Hey yo.
0:22
How you doing, man? Great. Doing fantastic. Stifle the sneeze just before the show? No, I don't, I don't know. I don't know. I've got that, I've got that I'm-about-to-sneeze feeling, but, uh, you know, we'll, we'll see.
0:30
Might be an entertaining first segment. Tell, tell, tell the people what you screamed right before we came on air. [laughs] I'm gonna sneeze. [laughs] That's what he did. That's what he did. Oh, man.
0:38
But apparently no sneeze. Uh, on the show today, on the heels of having Cleve T.A. on yesterday to give us a little preview of his NFL guide, how about some Aaron Schatz today?
0:49
How about some Aaron Schatz about 15 minutes from now? Let's do it.
0:52
The, uh, the founder of what wa- what was Football Outsiders, still is Football Outsiders, I guess, but he was the founder of Football Outsiders, the creator of DVOA, which breaks down NFL plays on a granular level and assesses them based on league average, and he's done it for, at least he's gone back to the, uh, is it the very beginning of the '80s or the very end of the '70s?
1:16
I think we're into the '70s now. In terms of play-by-play data. '91 Skins, best team of all time, by the way. Just wanted to point that out. But, uh, his preview guide is out now.
1:24
He plies his trade over there at FTN Sports, and, uh, Aaron is podcasting a lot this year. He's always kind enough to come on this show. He does so quarterly on a numbers game, always comes on a mega-pod.
1:35
We always have him for a full season preview. We'll get some of his bets, some of his more controversial thoughts heading into this season as well. Yeah, man. Love talking to Aaron.
1:45
He's, he's- Uh, pre-season, our quarterly check-ins with him, always great... he's got, uh, just to let you know what we might be talking about here, he's got Washington beating Philly in the NFC East.
1:55
Oh, real- Not a- Oh, really? Not a consensus thought by many. No, not at all. And, uh, in addition to the, uh- It's always great talking to these guys, though, like Cleve yesterday, Schatz today.
2:06
They've always got one or two- Oh, yeah... you know, opinions that are, that are out there a bit, right? Absolutely. And, but oh man, they are, they are usually more right than, than not.
2:15
Yeah, and Cleve yesterday, for those who missed it, he has the, he, his, you know, he has the Titans. Uh, one of his bets was the Titans to make the playoffs. That w- a lot of people sort of eyebrow raise on that.
2:26
Um, but he gave a good sort of impassioned speech as to why. He talked about Jonathan Gannon of the Cardinals for Coach of the Year. So we'll get some tho- thoughts from Aaron here momentarily.
2:34
Drew Dinsick will join us, our number two. Tennis plays from Drew, NFL thoughts from him as well. We'll also look at, uh, give our own thoughts on, uh, Comeback Player of the Year, Coach of the Year in the NFL.
2:45
Do that a little later on. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I, I think Coach of the Year's fun, actually, this year heading, heading into the season.
2:50
There's a few on there that I think are fi- I, like, Gannon's one that I like, too, and like- Gannon's one that I love. Yep... uh, h- he's up there.
2:56
Uh, but there's a couple others I think that are at a little bit longer numbers that, that I like that are mar- in that market.
3:01
And then, I mean, Comeback, it's, it's our favorite and least favorite award that's ever been created. [laughs] I, like, I, I'm, it's, it's staring at me already, Gil.
3:09
Like, there's a name on there that's, it, it feels way too obvious. And yes, it's one of the shorter shots, but- I'll, I'll cite this again later, but let's just review.
3:18
Beginning with the 2024 season, the criteria for the Comeback Player of the Year award was changed to emphasize players coming back from, quote, "Illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led to missed playing time the previous season."
3:30
Other circumstances is a big catch-all. I, I mean, hey, man, if, if, if they wanna play everything out like they did last year, I'll take this situation every single year, man.
3:39
That was good money on Burrow with, uh, with Comeback last year. As opposed to players having resurgent performances or coming back from sucking, as we like to call it. Yes. Yeah.
3:49
Uh, and then we'll, uh, also do regular season best record in Major League Baseball, which I'm not sure if there's a bet there or not.
3:54
I'm not sure if I would make one in this, but I do have a thought if you made me bet one. So- Who I would bet...
4:00
the most fascinating thing about this market, Gil, 'cause I've kind of been tracking it a bit, is just how much it changes day to day. Oh, day to day. Like, it's wild.
4:07
The pricing, like, will move 20 cents after a team loses one game. Are you suggesting that human beings are overly reactionary to things? [laughs] That's incredible. Yeah, that's exactly what I was- Yeah, yes.
4:18
[laughs] Yes. Yes. Yes. Uh, tennis plays. Let's start with those. Uh, yesterday, a two and O, the old clean sheet in tennis, and I will only bring that up, uh, to say this. We hit on the men's play, Matteo Gigante.
4:35
He won a third set tiebreaker, so nice to have some tie brea- breaker luck go our way. Um, but it was a good fortune day all around because we won a match, uh, Antonio Ruzic, uh, at plus 140.
4:47
By match time, we had the old 30 cents of, of CLV. She was, like, plus 110, and it looked like, Kelly, that it was gonna be the old typical, "Hey, great, 30 cents of CLV." Guess what? We, we got crushed.
4:58
She was down in this match. Oh my God. Do we have the graphic of this? Do we have the graphic of this? Yeah, yeah, we do. Uh, Antonio Ruzic was down to Anastasija Potapova yesterday, [tsks] uh, and she was down big.
5:12
6-2, 4-love, or, or 2-6, love-4, love-15, if I wanna say it correctly. So she's down 6-2, 4-love. Uh, Potapova's seven points away from winning this match, and Ruzic is a million miles away from win- winning the match.
5:27
She's gotta figure out a way to overcome a 4 to love, love, 15 love deficit and then win in a s- a second set, and she did just that. We came back from that score to win it, plus 140.
5:38
And Ruzic just, uh, she bageld her in the third set 'cause Potapova was so distraught. Well- After gacking number two. It is so nice to have one of those go your way. It's not even funny.
5:47
I was gonna say, the, uh, it, it's the, this, this isn't the d- the celebrating. No. This is just the recognizing when thing- Yes...
5:53
you know, when, if you're gonna complain all the time about things always going against you- 100%... you gotta recognize when thing go, things go your way, right? Ergo, my showing- Yep... the graphic here. That's right.
6:01
Today we have four. Again, the ladies are in Montreal, Kelly's favorite place on earth. That's right. Had her first trip there. And then, uh, and the men are in Toronto.
6:10
I have four, one on the ladies' side, three on the men's side. On the ladies' side this morning, now work with me here, I'm on Maya Joint against Leylah Fernandez.
6:19
Leylah Fernandez just destroyed everybody in DC, including Maya Joint, by the way. A lot of narratives in this match here. Uh- Maya Joint not on grass, hard court. I, I see what you're doing. Joint, grass.
6:32
I get what you did there. Yeah, that's right. Uh- And then, uh, what's, what's up with our, what's up with Leylah these days? Leylah is, she just came off her fourth career j- tournament win, her first 500 win in DC.
6:41
I don't care about that. She's- What's the update with her personal life? She's, she's letting everybody, letting everybody slide into her DMs. [laughs] She wants to go on a date. Curtain.
6:48
I don't think she's, I don't think she's gone on the date yet, but I'm going with Maya Joint. I think Leylah's just, I, it is her home also. I just think Joint is gonna capitalize. Joint is good, man.
6:59
She's gonna capitalize on a little down spot here. Okay. You know how you talk about those in football all the time? Yeah. It's a spot. Uh, so this is a spot for Maya Joint at a big number, plus 162.
7:07
Matt Brown, big spot better. He loves spots. Uh, on the men's side, three, beginning with, uh, Corentin, Corentin Moutet. Sure. I should've let you try that. Corentin Moutet.
7:19
No, no, I'll do the second name 'cause it's one of my favorite players on tour, versus Jenson Brooksby. Yeah. Mot- Moutet I got at minus 120.
7:25
Again, all picks, every, uh, body on VSiN, hosts, guests, sport, doesn't matter, vsin.com/picks. If it happens on our air, it ends up on the vsin.com/picks page. For subscribers, uh, in additional picks there as well.
7:39
So if you had been a subscriber, you'd have gotten this at minus 120. I just saw it at Circa at minus 135. I don't know that I would play it at minus 135. I wouldn't go above the minus 120s on this, if you can find it.
7:52
But Corentin Moutet minus 120 versus the American Jenson Brooksby. Then Tristan Schoolkate, who just beat your boy, Joao Fonseca. Really? Yeah, took him down yesterday. He's going up against Matteo Arnaldi.
8:04
I believe he continues this. Uh, he's at plus 150. And then the long shot of the day, those are all, uh, uh, nothing wrong with a plus 162 and plus 150 that I've already mentioned, but Emilio Nava, plus 235 against...
8:18
Would you like to try it? Uh, oh, I know Hugo Humbert. There you go. Hugo Humbert. I know Hugo Humbert. I know. We go way back. There was a shot you were gonna go Hugo Humbert. [laughs] No, no, Hugo and I go way back.
8:29
Yeah. Okay. So Nava at plus 235. Humbert a great player, but not having the best stretch of his career right now. So those are the four plays, Joint on the ladies' side, Moutet, Schoolkate, and Nava on the men's side.
8:39
Yeah, you should've, you should've had me do- Yeah... Moutet. That, that's the one you should've done. By the way, Moutet's one of these players, completely level-headed when he plays tennis. Oh, never a tantrum.
8:48
He's a hothead. By the way, it was, uh- Yeah... it was g- I, I, like I said yesterday, it was awesome doing the sh- uh, Ready, Set, Bet with Tom Byrne on Saturday.
8:55
It was one of those, uh, one of, he listens all the time. Uh, w- thank you, Tom. It was so funny, though. We're, during a break, he's like, he's like, "By the way," he's like, "You crack me up."
9:03
He's like, "One of my favorite parts of the show is you announcing tennis names and guessing college football lines." Yes. I'm like, "Oh, great. That's, that's what I'd like to be known for- So we just-...
9:10
me screwing up sports stuff." [laughs] That is great. Uh, it's your brand. [laughs] It's your brand. Uh, okay, uh, before we get to Aaron's shots here, uh, in Major League Baseball July wins, three days left in July.
9:20
Couple teams at the top have three games left. Couple teams have two games left, but it's down to four teams for those who bet this.
9:26
The Blue Jays lose again, but it's still, to use the old tennis analogy, still the ball on their racket.
9:32
Uh, the Blue Jays right now at 17 and 6, even after, uh, even after having lost their last two games, uh, still the driver's seat for the Blue Jays, 17 and 6.
9:44
And by the way, Kelly, I, I wanna add to this what the pre-flop numbers were on this. So the Blue Jays are at 17 and 6, Brewers 16 and 6, Rangers, Red Sox 15 and 7. Those are the only four teams that can still win this.
9:56
Remember, at Circa, tiebreakers, fewest losses followed by run differential as the next tiebreaker. William Hill Caesars, it is a dead heat as it is at DraftKings as well. Here are the pre-flop numbers on this.
10:07
Jays, they were 14 to 1 at William Hill Caesars, pardon me, 22 to 1 at Circa, 15 to 1 at DraftKings.
10:16
The Brewers, one win behind, they were 25 to 1 at William Hill Caesars, uh, plus 34.50, meaning almost 35 to 1 at Circa, 45 to 1 at DraftKings pre-flop on this. Rangers and Red Sox both at 15 and 7, two wins behind.
10:31
The Rangers 40 to 1 at William Hill Caesars, plus 37.25, meaning just over 37 to 1 at Circa, 20 to 1 at DraftKings.
10:39
And then the Red Sox, if they were to get home, 60 to 1 at William Hill Caesars, 90 to 1, pardon me, 90 to 1 at Circa. What's happening to me? You're getting choked up, man. You're crying.
10:50
It's emotional for me- You, you know it's-... 'cause the Mariners are ninth. 90 to 1 at Circa, 40 to 1 at, at, uh, DraftKings, by the way, for the Red Sox. Do wanna mention that, though.
10:57
Even though the Blue Jays lost yesterday, you know what all, you know what hit again? Their under- Dude... the opposing pitcher under prop,
11:04
uh, let me just show this here with, uh, colorful red Xs, but more, more so green check marks if we could. This has now gone to, what is it, 18 and 5, is it?
11:14
18 and 5 to the under on strikeout props, opposing pitchers versus the Blue Jays in the month of July.
11:21
And remember, 18 and 5, three of those five losses were right before the All-Star break, where they probably were mentally checked out a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. So every day, this just keeps on rolling.
11:32
Keeps on rolling. That's wild, man. Eflin with only three strikeouts against him yesterday. Uh, how about some NFL? How about some Aaron's Shots? Let's do it. On the other side.
11:41
From FTN Sports, the creator of DVOA, coming up. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:46
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game BSN, the Sports Betting Network Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
12:05
Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidler Alongside producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Um, I just wanna throw this up here before Aaron comes on.
12:14
Uh, one of the reasons why I'm sort of obsessed with DVOA is because Aaron goes back now to, I think, the late '70s it is, uh, in terms of his play-by-play granular DVOA, you know, knowledge here and, and assessment.
12:28
And just to give you some c- context from recent history, this is the best DVOA over five years, over f- any five-year stretch over the last five and a half decades.
12:39
Um, best DVOA over five-year stretch without a Super Bowl appearance, 2020 to 2024, both the Bills and the Ravens. You're at the top of this list.
12:51
[laughs] By the way, the Bills from 2020 to 2024, with some margin as well. Yeah. Look at that. 61 and 22, uh, in your standings, and nary a Super Bowl appearance. So, uh...
13:03
I, I mean, this graphic just tells you more of, uh, m- more how good Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are, right? Oh, it's brutal. It's brutal. Let's bring him in.
13:10
He is, uh, our buddy for so many years, the chief analytics officer for FTN, creator of DVOA, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, it's our friend Aaron Schatz. How you doing, Aaron? Happy football to you, sir. Hey.
13:22
Happy football. We made it through the off-season, yes. How... So you have the FTN Almanac, which is...
13:28
By the way, I don't know if you saw Joe Peta's tweet on this, but he has, like, a hard copy going back two decades on all this. It was an amazing tweet. Uh, how long does this take you to complete?
13:41
I didn't see Joe's tweet. Now I'm gonna look for it- Yeah... because it's good to know there's someone other than me that has all- [laughs]... 21 volumes of this.
13:50
Uh, yeah, we work on it starting in kind of mid-April, but really get going after the draft. So we do the whole thing in about 10 weeks.
14:00
Well, speaking of him, can I, can I submit one question from him before we get into all of your, uh, thoughts for this year?
14:06
'Cause he had a more, uh, sort of existential question on this, if you will, football one, which I think is great, and this gets back to, you know, the bread and butter of what you do.
14:15
The question that he has is, "Defense has always been less predictable," as you have said through the guides for many years.
14:20
"Defense has always been less predictable than offense year to year as measured by DVOA, but it's gotten even harder the last three years, and ridiculous last year."
14:31
His question is, "Any thoughts as to why that might be?" No. I honestly am not sure.
14:40
I mean, I have some thoughts as to why offense is more predictable than defense, the biggest being just the importance of the quarterback position.
14:49
When you have one position that's so important, that player determines a lot of what happens. Uh, why defense, uh, the last couple years has been even more inconsistent than before, I, I,
15:01
I can't think of any rule changes that would make it that way, and I don't think injuries have changed significantly, so I, I don't know the answer. Yeah, more, more defensive coordinator shuffle? Has that been the case?
15:13
I mean, I don't know. Which would, which would indicate different schemes. I don't know. I think it's the normal amount of defensive coordinator shuffle. Yeah. Yeah, probably so.
15:20
All right, uh, let me start with, uh, [laughs] let's start with the NFC East, close to my heart, where you seem to be one of the lone voices out there. That's anecdotal. I'm sure there are others who, who believe this.
15:31
But most people are taking the approach of, "Oh, well, look, I mean, Jayden Daniels and the, and the Skins last year," the Commanders, pardon me, "they absolutely, uh, were spectacular in the most high-leverage moments," um, fourth downs- Yes...
15:45
being, uh, you know, the, the tip of that, uh, iceberg. And so the, the thought, the, the next thought after the comma is then, "And therefore, that must regress, and they can't be as good."
15:56
You don't see it quite that way. You have the Commanders atop the Eagles in the NFC East. We do, and I think that there's no question that fourth down performance is going to regress.
16:10
Like, that is absolutely true, but I think that it will be countered by the additions that they made to the offense, in particular Laremy Tunsil, to improve the offensive line. I like that.
16:24
All right, let's go to another division at the top that is sort of outlier-ish. Most people have the Texans winning the AFC South. You do not.
16:34
No, we have the Jaguars slightly ahead of the Texans, although this is a more even division. In the NFC East, we have it almost always it's either the Commanders or the Eagles.
16:44
In this division, I think you, you were talking a little bit earlier about Cleve T.A. is big on the Titans.
16:50
I'm not big on the Titans, but I understand the argument that if you really believe in Cam Ward, that he can do the same kind of thing that Daniels did, then you, you put some money on the Titans.
17:02
Uh, but we have the Jaguars as a slight favorite over the Texans.
17:06
Uh, we do have their defense improving this year, and subjectively, I do think Liam Cohen could possibly unlock Trevor Lawrence a little bit, especially with Thomas and Hunter as the wide receivers.
17:18
That seems like that should be a good offense. And as far as the Texans go, they're a little bit in the same boat as the Eagles, which is we're talking about defense is less consistent than offense.
17:31
Those two teams were really driven by defense last year. So if the Eagles and the Texans go from being the top two defenses in the league to being around fifth or sixth, they both fall back a bit. I see. Okay.
17:46
Um, just again, let's, uh, at a cursory glance of stuff, I went to the bottom of your projected season wins, and the betting markets have, you know, and, and, and our guests and, and sort of betting experts, pick your, pick your poison here, some variation of Giants or, uh, Saints or Browns being the worst teams in the NFL this coming season.
18:09
You, as I look at, as I glance at this graph here, it, I, I'm seeing the Jets and the Panthers as worse than all three of those. Yeah, but we had those teams pretty bad too.
18:21
Uh, the Panthers' defense is just really, really bad, and we're not huge believers in the Bryce Young improvement. In particular, we've talked about this a lot in past years.
18:31
As much as you want to believe that second-half improvement rolls over to the next year, there's no pattern of second-half improvements rolling over to the next year.
18:42
A better way to project is to look at the entire season, and if you look at the entire season, Bryce Young was bad, and their defense was very bad.
18:52
And Cleveland is one that I think I do have a little bit higher the consensus, because I like their defense to rebound after it declined so significantly last year.
19:02
And that would make them more of a six-win team rather than, like, a three-win team. Okay.
19:09
Um, Jets fans still not gonna be thrilled with that, with that assessment, but I understand, uh, and c- I'm not a believer in Justin Fields. Stop trying to make Fields happen. It's not going to happen. [laughs] Okay.
19:21
Okay. Um, all right, we always like to ask you this time of year. All right, so then what are... And, and then we, we sort of go back at the end of the year and see what you got right and what you didn't.
19:30
What are the teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that you project as likely to make it this year? And the opposite, what are the teams that were in last year that you project out?
19:42
I mean, San Francisco, San Francisco, San Francisco. San Francisco was number 13 in DVOA last year with a really, really bad special teams, which will regress towards the mean, and the worst health in the year.
19:57
Uh, w- worst health in the league, which will regress to the mean.
20:00
And yes, they lost some guys, but they still have most of their major guys, and I'm a Kyle Shanahan believer, and they have the easiest schedule in the league.
20:07
Like, there's no question, of the teams that missed the playoffs last year, by far the most likely to make the playoffs is San Francisco. By far. Give me another one that's- By far... in that group. Uh, Cincinnati.
20:21
Cincinnati's an, a sort of obvious one as well. Um- And Arizona is one that we like- Ah, there. That-... more than consensus That's what I'm looking for We like their defense to improve. Okay.
20:30
Yeah, we like their defense to improve. What about the opposite? The, uh, team that was in that you think is out. Golly, our numbers are really low on the Chargers.
20:42
I was a little surprised that we came out so low on them.
20:44
We really have their defense regressing, and I think that's just a question of is Jesse Minter a really special defensive coordinator, or is Jesse Minter just kind of got lucky last year?
20:55
'Cause they got a lot of defensive performance last year out of guys that you wouldn't expect it, like a fifth-round rookie like Tarheeb Still. Like, can Tarheeb Still do again what he did last year?
21:06
And they lost Poona Ford, and, uh, they lost, uh, Joey Bosa ob- obviously didn't play that much last year. But we, we, we... This, the receivers are not impressive other than McConkie.
21:18
Uh, yeah, we're not really high on the Chargers. That's the big one. The other one is Minnesota, uh, because you have to assume that J.J.
21:25
McCarthy will be bad, 'cause he's effectively a rookie even though he's in a great situation. And again, like Houston, like Philadelphia, we expect their defense to come back to the pack a little bit.
21:36
Yeah, the Minnesota thing is interesting. And, and for you, I would ask, and I think I probably asked some variation of this in, in previous years, uh, you just assume, right? Because there's a rookie quarterback.
21:46
So the way that you just start as a baseline is that, okay, the assumption is this person's not gonna be very good.
21:52
I am not a big, you know, fan of folks saying, "Oh, look at that interception in, in training camp," but didn't he throw five the other day in one day of training camp?
22:00
That's not a good barometer I would, I wouldn't assume. But so that, that's how you work with rookie quarterbacks, you just assume not good? Yeah, I mean, you have to belie- the- there's a bigger range of possibilities.
22:12
The younger the quarterback, the bigger the range of possibilities, but you have to expect them to be bad. And then if they turned out to be C.J. Stroud or Jayden Daniels, you're, you're in an awesome situation.
22:23
You're in an awesome situation. All right, we'll come back. One more segment here with, uh, with Aaron. He happens to be a, uh, a voter of all NFL awards, uh, Associated Press NFL awards.
22:33
We'll get his thoughts on some of those and some best bets, uh, with Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA and the chief analytics officer at FTN Sports. You can follow him on Twitter at ASchatzNFL.
22:45
Coming right back here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? I know you do.
23:02
Start with smarter insights. Right now, you can check out Greg Peterson's MLB best bets. Love some hoops. Steve Makinen's bullpen betting systems and NFL preseason betting tips.
23:12
And later today, you can check out Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA picks, Josh Applebaum's MLB best bets, and Zach Cohen's tennis picks. Right now, you can sign up for full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl for only $175.
23:25
Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Uh, real quick, this is, uh, from Aaron's Twitter, at ASchatzNFL. That's S-C-H-A-T-Z NFL.
23:35
Uh, here are the percentages of how often these teams win the division in FTN simulations. Buffalo, 72%, Baltimore, 70% in the AFC East and AFC North, uh, respectively, and then a bit of a drop off.
23:50
Um, Detroit, 54% to win the NFC North. Tampa Bay, 53% to win the NFC South. Uh, Commanders, 52% to win the NFC East, all the way down. There's, there's the... Boy, there are some tight divisions there, right? Yeah.
24:03
The Niners, 51% to win the NFC West. KC, 48% to win the AFC West. And there's Jacksonville, who we talked about, at 42% to win the AFC South.
24:12
Of the teams that they project second, the most likely to win their divisions are the Texans and the Eagles. There you go Um, Aaron joins us once again.
24:21
Aaron Schatz, that is, chief analytics officer at FTN, creator of DVOA, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He joins us from his lair there in, uh, Massachusetts.
24:31
Aaron, where can every- But first of all, it's called FTN Fantasy, right? Uh, what's the website exactly, and where can everybody get all of your stuff most easily?
24:41
The website is ftnfantasy.com, and you can find the Almanac at ftnfantasy.com/almanac. Of course, you should check out everything at FTN. Jeff Radcliffe is an award-winning fantasy projections guy.
24:57
So our projections are very good, whether you wanna play preseason over-unders or you're in a fantasy league. Uh, the physical copy of the book is also on Amazon.
25:06
Search for FTN Football Almanac 2025, and make sure you get the one that's listed as being written by me. [laughs] We've actually been spoofed on Amazon. Accept no alternatives. Get the real book.
25:21
You're, you're doing that with a smile, but how rotten are people? For real. Oh, that's crazy. It's so stupid. [laughs] It's beyond stupid.
25:29
I gotta think most people are smart enough to know the one that says Aaron Schatz's book written by Aaron Schatz is probably the right one, not the one written by some other dude, you know?
25:38
But he's using your name too, right? He's trying to throw your name in there also? Yeah. Oh. It's not listed as written by me, but my name is in the title- Okay... which is like, "Hi, I'm, my name. How you doing?"
25:48
[laughs] Okay. Get the one that's written by Aaron. Yeah. All right. Let's get to it. Biggest difference between your projections and Vegas numbers? I, I open the floor to you. Eagles.
26:01
The Eagles are the biggest difference, although I think we're a little low on them, because we, the projection has them sixth on defense.
26:08
I think it's more likely they're third or fourth, but that would still be a big difference. They have the second-hardest projected schedule in the league.
26:17
So if their offense is about the same as last year and their defense is not quite as good, because they were so good on defense last year, then you're not talking about a team that wins 12 games.
26:28
You're talking about a team that wins 10 or 11 games. Other big differences, the Chargers, who we are low on. Uh, we're higher on the Raiders, although that drops a little bit with the Christian Wilkins thing.
26:41
We're a little higher on the Browns and the Jaguars. And when you say a little higher, we're talking season wins. You would, so you would bet over in season wins on those last three you just mentioned? Yeah.
26:52
Over on, uh, the Browns, the Jaguars, the Raiders, and under on the Chargers and the Eagles. Those are our biggest differences. Biggest differences in terms of season wins.
27:02
Is there a, is there an outlying division bet that you like somewhere, just based on the number? Jaguars. Jaguars to win- Jaguars... the AFC South, I think, and, and Commanders to win the NFC East. Okay.
27:13
Those are our, I mean, those are our two... Because the 49ers, I think Vegas is on too, like, as the sort of, quote-unquote, "surprise division winners." Yeah.
27:22
Plus, they have a lot of competition in their division, whereas I think the Commanders' only competition is really the Eagles, and the Jaguars is mostly the Texans. Okay.
27:30
Uh, one of the reasons we love you so much is you are a, uh, you're a voter. You're an actual, you are one of the 50 folks who has a, who have a vote, uh, on these NFL awards at the end of the year.
27:41
And we were, this is not a pleasant moment, we were even with you, right, at, uh, was it Carbone? Me, Matt, Brown, Kelly, uh, and you- Yes...
27:50
were at Carbone when they announced, when Lamar Jackson won the MVP award, but not unanimously. You just missed by one vote.
28:00
You knew that that vote was yours, and we sort of lost you for five minutes, um, because you were just- [laughs]... you were just worried about- The, the irony is- Yeah...
28:09
that last year, that last year, I voted for Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen won. That's right. So as far as I'm concerned, the right, the right guys won in the wrong years. Yeah.
28:16
And Lamar handled it better than most others did, by the way. Lamar was cool with it. Um, at least that's what he said, w- what he said, uh, publicly.
28:24
So you are, you're super nice about telling us during the year as much as you can. The further out we get, meaning the closer to the actual award, uh, your ballot being submitted, the less you can really say.
28:36
But now you can say anything you want. What do you think of, and projection-wise on some of these?
28:43
I mean, MVP, uh, usually goes to the best quarterback, so I think that the odds are about right as far as who's gonna win regular season MVP. I mean, Allen and Jackson. If Burrow can lift that Bengals defense,
28:57
he's definitely a good possibility. Um, I would say that the, the, um, the surprise might be on that list would be, uh, Kyler Murray, if we're right about Arizona, that he might, you know, really surprise.
29:12
But if we're right about Arizona, it's more gonna be about the defense. So, uh, uh, I, I'm not really that much higher on him than the odds. Yeah.
29:19
Your, your opinion on this is pretty much what ours is, which is you can try to force an MVP bet here, but it, it's kind of, kind of properly priced at the top. Josh Allen- We know who the best quarterbacks...
29:29
Yeah, we know who the four best quarterbacks in the league are. They're the four guys with the favorite odds to win the MVP. Yeah, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes, who he's referring to.
29:37
By the way, Kyler Murray, 28 to 1, if you're interested. Uh, what about Offensive Player of the Year, which has become the sort of, uh, player who is not a quarterback award? Yeah.
29:52
I, I would bet that the best bet is probably a receiver rather than a Saquon Barkley winning it again. I would rather go with, like, Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. I, if Jefferson is not...
30:03
Actually, it's interesting. You've got Puka Nacua and Jefferson both listed at 16 to 1. Nacua might be more likely 'cause we don't really know what McCarthy's gonna be.
30:13
You know, Stafford and Nacua could put up really big numbers with DeVonta Adams having to take some of the defense's Uh, attention away from him.
30:21
But I would bet that a wide receiver is a better bet than Barkley winning it a second year in a row. Yeah.
30:26
I, I, I used to flippantly say here on the show, "Well, uh, Stafford is trying to feed his boyfriend Cooper Kupp the ball when Puka Nacua is right there on the other side of the- [laughs]... of the field wide open."
30:36
Uh, we don't have that problem anymore, so Puka Nacua, maybe this is the year where he- Yeah, Chase may have, Chase may have the second lowest odds, but Chase at plus 950 might be the best bet. Might be the best bet.
30:45
Ja'Marr Chase plus 950. All right, uh, how about Coach of the Year? Wow, that's an interesting one.
30:52
I'll tell you that the way I've been thinking the last couple years is I try not to base it entirely on how a team does compared to expectations, because part of the expectations is that you have a good coach.
31:06
If the Lions meet expectations this year, it means Dan Campbell did a good job, right? So he should be considered.
31:14
But I know that the odds are us- And the, the award usually goes to the, the team that comes from out of nowhere.
31:21
Uh, so given my projections, the best bet is Liam Cohen, because if the Jaguars win the AFC South, there will be a lot of people wanting to do Liam Cohen, and 12-1 seems like good odds there.
31:35
Um, Peyton at 16-1 is interesting given how much my numbers like Denver, uh, this year. That would be an interesting one as well.
31:45
Uh, I feel like as much as I think the 49ers are gonna be a lot better, if Kyle Shanahan hasn't, you know, I don't know if he's gonna win.
31:52
If they think if he, if they, if the 49ers are much better, people are gonna be like, "Well, you know, it's just another one of those years," and I don't think they'll necessarily vote for Shanahan.
32:00
I think that's, I, I agree with that. He, he is one that I've had circled, but it's w- I've wondered those questions, Aaron. Yeah.
32:07
Is it, just do we all know he's a good coach and he's not gonna get any credit for tur- you know, turning the team around in a year like everybody else does? And I think you're probably right.
32:15
I, I hate to do this to you in our last minute here, Aaron, but Comeback Player of the Year, which is [laughs] which has been the most- Oh, I haven't even thought about that one.
32:25
Who are the, who would you say are the top four candidates? I, I- Well, here's, here's what the market says is the top candidate. It's Aidan Hutchinson coming back from- Oh, Hutchinson, absolutely.
32:33
Like, I, I understand Prescott's a quarterback and McCaffrey has...
32:38
The, the Trevor Lawrence one is, I mean, I guess he was injured last year, so it's not just that, that he'll be better with Liam Cohen, it's that he's coming back from injury. Uh, Aidan Hutchinson is probably the best,
32:51
uh, I mean, even at, at the lowest odds, he's a pretty darn good bet. Nick Chubb is an interesting one. The reports out of camp on him are not that good, but that Joe Mixon injury means he might get a lot of play. Yeah.
33:04
Yeah, is this... The interesting thing about Comeback Player of the Year, and I hadn't realized this, a quarterback has won it every year since, what is it, 20... I, I mean, and again, is this coincidence or not?
33:16
And it doesn't have to be a quarterback award. No, it- They, they can go with another player. That's why Aidan Hutchinson, I think, makes a lot of sense as the favorite.
33:24
Last quarterback to win Comeback Player of the Year, Keenan Allen. Last non-quarterback. 2017. Yeah. Last non-quarterback, pardon me. Last non-quarterback. That's right. Yeah.
33:32
By the way, Keenan Allen's still out there unsigned. Unsigned. Looking for a job. Aaron, love it. Thank you so much, man. Appreciate it, as always. FTNFantasy.com/almanac. Bam, there you go.
33:45
Coming back with some MLB talk next. [upbeat music]
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