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Jul 29, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 29, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 29, 2026
00:00
42:08
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Transcript
0:00
[air horn blows] Yeah. [upbeat music] Trick the club, Matty. You know. Ooh, no sinks. John Ellis is working. They don't have a... Actually, gee, yeah, get it together, boys. Larry's is, isn't working.
0:16
You know the only thing that's, that's missing from that is, like, one of them needs to be hammered. Like, they're all- Yeah, yeah, yeah... you can always tell, you can tell that that's their first drink of the day.
0:25
You need, like, the, you need the, the Kelly at the wedding- You're like, none of their-... the guy who's just stumbling around in the back- None of their eyes are glossed-... taking advantage of the open bar...
0:32
you know, none of their eyes are glossed over. You're right. Nobody's stumbling. You're right. It's not realistic. Nobody's what, their, their t- their shirts are all still tucked in.
0:38
Like, no one's, like, broken the rules of, like, untucking the shirt or anything. I don't know why the, the, the, the obvious mocktails always jump out to me. Yeah.
0:44
Like, there's, when have you ever s- when, when have you ever gone to a bar and seen anybody drinking anything like that? Or- Even on a cruise ship.
0:50
I, I mean, I was gonna say, unless this is, like, unless this is footage from a cruise ship, which it, which it could be. And they were v- like, ver- Because look at- Whoever produced this was very careful...
0:59
'cause look at the drink this guy on the right is, is drinking. Yeah, I know. It's, it's, yeah. Is this some sort of wine cocktail? Is this, is this maybe, like, a- No, it's like prune juice and vodka...
1:07
sangria maybe that this guy's got going on right there? But- Maybe some sangria. Yeah, I mean, maybe it's, like, a sangria, but yeah, it's just... We'll find some other- Eh...
1:15
you know, we'll find some other foot- maybe we'll get, like- Last Ben Wilson. Yeah, we'll find some, we'll f- For mo- more of his home videos. We'll, we'll...
1:22
[laughs] Royalty-free, we should find some more royalty-free stuff to throw on so that we can- Oh, man... so that we can actually use it. Okay, we do have the Rocket Classic. It is the last version of the Rocket Classic.
1:34
Unfortunate, because they just did a $16 million renovation of the Detroit Golf Club, which actually made the course a little bit harder, we think. We think. We'll see tomorrow, but we think.
1:44
And, uh, gonna get a pretty good field here in this one as well, but it is the last one. Rocket declined their option to come back in as a sponsor for next year, and mainly they cited, Kelly, which was just the
1:57
spot on the calendar, the never knowing what type of field- W- were-... is gonna show up. Were they gonna get pushed somewhere else on the calendar? No, it's basically because of where they...
2:08
'Cause this got r- you know, resituated here. Right. And with this kind of being leading into- Yeah, they don't want to be in there for the playoffs...
2:16
the playoffs, they're like, "We're never guaranteed that the guys are gonna come," you know? And, and, and so they decided, you know what? M- money could be spent somewhere else, and so.
2:25
I'll be honest, I didn't really read up on the reasoning- Yeah... for why they were bailing out, but yeah, I mean, PGA Tour, obviously the schedule's getting more condensed anyway- Well-...
2:32
so some of these, some of these tournaments you're not gonna see anymore.
2:34
And then the, the, the one other, one other thing that was, was put out too is that the PGA Tour wouldn't guarantee them what their spot was going to be on the calendar either.
2:42
Yeah, okay, so that makes m- that makes- Yeah... more sense to me. Yeah.
2:46
So it's like they got shuffled around, and then they still couldn't get a full guarantee, which then even more, puts even more question marks as to what kind of field you're gonna get. Mm.
2:54
Who's gonna show up, and all of that, and so this- Uh, c- and just running everyday business operations, right? Mm-hmm.
2:59
I mean, we're talking about this renovation, and it's m- it's always m- mainly for the club members anyways. Mm-hmm. But, you know, you wanna be tour level and be able to host these type of events.
3:08
But if you, if they can't commit to you of where you're gonna be at in the calendar, then any time you need to do updates to the course, anything like that- Mm...
3:15
becomes eg- insanely tricky for you to figure out what time of the year you need to plan this stuff.
3:19
So what we don't know is despite the fact that we have a lot of sample size of this tournament here, we don't know what this course is gonna play like, because after that $16 million renovation, they went in and did all kinds of craziness.
3:30
They el- every single green is elevated. They redid all the green complexes. They made them bigger. They redid the bunkers. They made two of the par fives par fours, so they're gonna play as super long par fours.
3:42
We hear fescue grown up four to six-foot trenches that were dug. Trenches. Which we still don't even know, like- They got rid of a pond. Yeah. They filled in a pond with more grass.
3:53
Yeah, yeah, that pond got, got filled up with fescue, so all kinds of stuff. So- A lot of breakdown of this on, uh, Long Shots, by the way. Yeah, if you guys- If you listen to that podcast.
4:01
Yeah, I was gonna say, if you guys listened to us yesterday, I mean, I will fully say we had to make some leaps here, right? We had to make some- Mm-hmm... assumptions a- and because right off the bat, right?
4:12
Winning score been in that 20-ish range, 20, 22, something like that or whatever. So we, we talked about this on, on the pod, but it's worth bringing up here.
4:20
You make the pa- two of the par fives par fours over the course of four rounds. So now you've taken eight strokes of par away, right? So now automatically your 22 becomes 14. Then, we'll see if it plays out this way,
4:36
but the club superintendent comes out and says, "I actually think the way with the changes to the course- Right... and the way that we've done the greens, that it probably plays two or three strokes tougher."
4:44
So now we're, if our, if our baseline's kind of sitting in that 14, 15, 16 range, but now it's gonna play two or three strokes tougher, we might have a winning score more in the 14, 13, 14, 15 range, as opposed to the 20, 21, 22.
4:57
And so something to keep in mind as you handicap this, that this could play more like kind of an average tour stop than the typical birdie fest that we talk about, you know, several different times over the course of, of the season, because that's not, doesn't seem like that's gonna be the case here.
5:11
Yeah. It's, uh, I'm very, very intrigued to see how this ends up playing out. This is... I mean, I ended up seeing more video even after we did the podcast yesterday.
5:19
It, it looks like a fairly tough te- uh, test from just w- some of what we're- Yeah... seeing on camera out there from these guys warming up. So I don't... I, I'm, I'm intrigued, Matt.
5:28
I'm not a full believer this is gonna immediately turn into a super tough contest, just 'cause we've seen it in the past every year be- g- guys going so low. But I...
5:38
hopefully if you are betting this week, you listen to what Matt said. But just the, simply the par fives to the par fours alone, right?
5:43
It's a, that's a b- two birdie holes that are immediately flipping, uh, to a par four. It's basically you can just write it in as a bogey hole now.
5:50
I mean, you're g- half stroke under par to a half stroke over par is what you're basically looking at. Yeah, 'cause these are, they're super long par fours now is, is kind of how this is gonna play.
5:57
Now, the field, we mentioned, is much better. Cam Young, Chris Gotterup, Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Cantlay, J.J. Spaun, Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, Jackson Kovin.
6:09
You can go ahead and start throwing him in there- Mm-hmm... with the, uh, with the elite guys. Hideki is there. Got Jake Knapp after a nice little round that he, uh, that he had over the week, of this past weekend.
6:19
So pretty good field here for the last edition of the Rocket Classic. You and I went in, talked about the stuff that we liked yesterday in the models.
6:26
Mainly, I kept mine basic because I don't know how this course is gonna play. Yeah. So I didn't want to overthink something and try to hone in a model that I don't know for sure that I'm honing it in on the right stuff.
6:38
Right. So mine was just kind of like, can you get off the tee? Can you hit some greens?
6:43
And that's basically where I li- It was, like, heavy off the tee stuff for me, little bit of distance stuff, heavy on approach, and that was pretty basic with the model. Yeah. For me. And it, it was, it was...
6:53
I still stayed pretty heavy off the tee- Mm... which I've done at this course in years past. I don't, I'm not ready to s- to move off of that- Yeah... just yet until I see that. Wes brought it up.
7:03
I think he factored in a little bit more. I do think the around the green play is probably gonna be significantly more important here this week- Yeah... with just the elevated greens. Yeah.
7:13
Right, we're gonna, it's gonna be harder to hold greens on approach. Sta- uh, balls are gonna fall, f- fall off, they're gonna trickle off, you're gonna have to play, uh, up and down from around there more.
7:22
I think that's gonna matter. We just say it all the time. If the scoring conditions elsewhere are so easy, how much does the around the green play really gonna factor into the winner, I don't know.
7:33
That, that's where I, I'm gonna l- I, I can't wait to see on that, but, you know, again, this course isn't gonna be back next year, so [laughs] we're not gonna be able to learn and apply it, but, yeah Exactly.
7:41
Those courses. There's no, yes, nothing we learn is gonna be applicable moving forward. Yeah. So it'll just be in round stuff with all that.
7:47
So when it was all said and done, you plugged things in, what did you end up on? Yeah. This actually ended up being fairly- Mm...
7:52
easy for me to bet after, after all of the research and kind of figuring out what we need- Yeah... to factor in and which, which was pretty complicated.
7:58
I was pretty surprised to flip open books and see, look, I think Cameron Young deserve a short shot for sure, 10 to 1. I was shocked to see that Chris Gotterup was not the next name at most- Mm... at most books.
8:09
Um, and getting him at 18 to 1, that's where I started my card. I've won twice on the year with him. He's been great. Uh, he's won three times, obviously.
8:16
This is, he's been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour, um, this season. Look, checks all the boxes for distance, 16th on approach in this field, last 12 rounds coming in. He can score 10th of birdie or better.
8:27
We've got all these par fours now. Second in par four scoring. The results are back, right? T-18 at the Open, T-11 at the Scottish, one at the John Deere, uh, just a few weeks ago.
8:37
He's played this course a few times in the past. That's another thing. I'm not surely, really sure how much that's gonna matter, right? Mm-hmm. Your, your history at this course.
8:44
Uh, so I started my card with Chris Gotterup. And look, this is, didn't get a chance to say it on the pod, Matt, should say it now. You, complete course renovation. This isn't coming back.
8:52
Yes, this is a lighter bet tournament for me- Mm... the, uh, this week. I, we, there's a little bit of unknowns.
8:56
Whenever there's unknowns out there with courses that we're not super familiar with, it's dial back a bit for me. So Gotterup I started with. Ben Griffin, who I don't play a ton, you don't hear me bring him up often.
9:07
Mm-hmm. I, but man, the approach game's locked in right now. You know he's one of the better putters on the PGA Tour, and a guy who does have a quality around the green game, just in case that does- Mm-hmm...
9:16
uh, end up being a factor. But not something I really looked at heavily this week. Ben Griffin, played him outright, and I played him in the top 20 market, followed up the Gotterup outright with a top 10.
9:25
And then Hideki Matsuyama, the only other guy I played. Three really quality finishes in a row for Hideki. Uh, that is a t- a T-3 last week, and then two, uh, T-14 finishes two weeks before that.
9:37
Wondering if he's rounding into form here, Matthew. Off the tee- Mm-hmm... and the putting numbers have been great. Another guy who you know is great around the green, if that comes into play.
9:45
It's just the approach that's been lacking, which is odd for Hideki. So I, I like the number on him out there, though. 33 to 1 was good enough for me. You're here because you want an edge.
9:54
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10:03
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10:15
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
10:34
Numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Empegnal, Kelly Bidlin. We're going right out to the guest line here, buddy. Yeah. Will Hill gonna join us @NotTheWillHill over in the Twitter machine.
10:44
Shoulda Bet More podcast, and of course, across this network of ours. Will, how you doing, buddy? Boys, what's going on?
10:51
A, a week or so till the Hall of Fame game, so, uh, we are just, we are getting there s- ever so slowly to, uh, to football season. Yeah. So I'm excited to be with you guys. Thanks for having me.
10:59
It is, it is this time of year every year when I, when it, when the juices start flowing, if you will. When I know that it's- Yeah... like right around the corner, that's when I'm like, "Okay."
11:08
I'll be real honest with you guys, too, though. It's also, like, when I feel like I, it's the final troll job of the off season when I just see little league, like, stuff on the television. I'm just like- Yeah...
11:16
"A, I, good for the kids." I mean, good- Yes... for the kids. I just, it's like three weeks or four. It's so much longer than I think it's going to be every year. Yeah. I'm like, "Good, NFL's almost here."
11:25
No, not really.
11:26
The only thing in, it's gotten to the point now where since we've had these couple of kids that throw, like, 77 and, like, 78 miles an hour, I'm like, when the kids are out there throwing 64, I'm like, "What, what are you doing?
11:36
You're, you, you have no chance of winning." Like this is, just, just skip to the- Right... skip to the team that has the kid that throws 80, and, like, we know who's gonna be in the finals. Plug 'em in the final. Yeah.
11:45
Yeah. You get, the kid that's throwing 61, it's not happening, Will. I'm telling you. Right. I mean, just come on. Let's ski- let's skip all this nonsense.
11:51
Uh, we have not talked to you since the LeBron stuff dropped, and so wanna get your thoughts here on not only the news, him ending up there where you thought he was actually gonna go, but just the thought of now what does Philly bring to the table and, and do you think that this is what could actually put them over the top?
12:09
Over the top might be a stretch. I think in order to actually win the whole thing, and when you bring in LeBron, you bring in Jaylen Brown, yeah, winning the whole thing is obviously the goal
12:18
But you haven't been to the conference finals in 25 years. I think if you got to a conference finals, or if you ever got to a finals, you know what?
12:23
That, that's better than anything you would've had, you know, before without this group. I just think at, at the end of the day, you're gonna need Embiid, and I've been making the comparison, guys.
12:31
It's almost like hitting a five-leg parlay with Embiid. Healthy for the regular season, then healthy for four rounds of the playoffs. We all know how hard it is to hit a five-leg parlay. That's asking a lot.
12:40
Now, could you at some point trade him for Anthony Davis, include picks? To me, that would make sense. Not that Davis is some beacon of health or beacon of trust, but he's a little bit just, you know, lighter.
12:50
There's at least been some glimpses of him staying healthy through the course of a, a long season in playoffs, so I'd have more faith in Davis. But I think in general it's gonna work.
12:59
It- it's almost like the Dodgers, where you have so many guys you don't need to play them every night. You can rest Snell and Glasnow for a lot of the season. LeBron can miss games. Embiid can miss games.
13:07
They're gonna win, to me, a lot of regular season games. I think there's always, when you get one of these big moves, there's always an overreaction in the market.
13:13
Like, I'm not cutting in line to bet, you know, plus 380 to win the East or nine to one to win the title. But I'll, I'll put it this way. The only team definitively better than them in the East is the Knicks.
13:23
Other than that, you can squint and make a case they're better than the Celtics, better than the Raptors, the Heat, all, all these other teams. I think from a game to game perspective, though,
13:33
I don't think it's a hand-in-glove fit because it's... I, I don't know how much shooting it's gonna be. And here's the thing, I think they're gonna be an over team game to game- Mm-hmm...
13:39
because there's not a lot of defense. Embiid can't move. LeBron is 41, gonna be 42. I, I love how we always round up everyone's age. Everyone's always gonna be a year older- [laughs]... when you round up their age.
13:49
Uh, Maxey is small. Edgecomb is small. Uh, the guys on offense wanna run. So to me, they...
13:54
I, I could see a scenario we're talking about them in December and January, "Oh, the Sixers are, you know, 18 and 5 to the over." And eventually, you know, the market's gonna adjust.
14:02
But I think game to game, especially early in the season, they could be an over team.
14:05
Kelly, you, you do round either up when you're talking about someone being old, or you round down when you talk about someone being young. Like, 'cause I remember multiple times, you're like, "Wimby's like 15," you know?
14:14
Or whatever. [laughs] Like, you know, so it's like you go down when it's, you're talking about how young someone is. When they're younger, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And then they're old, like, "LeBron's 50," you know? Yeah.
14:20
It's like, yeah, so you, that's, you go one or the other. Yeah, he's not 50 yet. [laughs] Uh, I, I, yeah, yeah. Let's, uh, let's calm down there. I'm, I'm with you, Will.
14:26
I think, uh, I think it'll be interesting to see what those totals look like at the beginning of the season, 'cause yeah, I...
14:30
The defense is gonna be a problem, and I think the, their easiest path to winning, at least in the regular season, and look, I think it's a very strong path to winning, is playing in j- uh, in transition, up-tempo, uh, open court.
14:41
So yeah, I, I think it's gonna be fascinating to watch. I wanna watch one year of Joel Embiid, though. I really, I really hope they don't move on from him. Uh, okay. Will, we're, uh, getting to baseball here.
14:50
Manager of the Year, one of, uh, one of your favorite awards markets. I know there's someone that you've played before and you still like it now. It's the same guy. It's Groundhog Day. I think I've...
15:01
[laughs] It's like the third time I've discussed this- Yeah... theory manager at the same number. The number doesn't move. I still like it. I, I feel like I'm, I'm missing something here.
15:08
The Pirates manager, Don Kelly, is plus 800 at FanDuel. FanDuel's really the only... We always say shop around with this stuff. FanDuel's the only market I s- uh, you know, book I, I see here with that market.
15:18
I can poke so many holes in the guys above him. First off, the Pirates haven't been to the playoffs in forever, 2015. Haven't won a playoff series since the '70s. They never win. Kind of lovable losers.
15:28
You know, the owner's cheap. The franchise has a great fan base, but they're, they're never good anymore.
15:32
If you got them into the playoffs, he would have such a strong case, and I do think they're alive to get in the playoffs. He'd have such a strong case. Maddon, the Phillies manager. All right, he's done a nice job.
15:40
The Phillies are always good. The Braves managers. The Braves, outside of last year where they had injuries, the Braves are always good. The Cardinals and Marlins manager are ahead of him.
15:47
I don't think those teams are going to the playoffs. To me, Kelly, these guys should not be ahead of Kelly. I'm shocked he's plus 800. Uh, I still think that is very playable, and I think that's mispriced.
15:56
I hope you win that one, 'cause I have that one from the preseason as well. So, uh, hope that one does get home for you. But let's talk about that team today. Eduardo Rodriguez versus Jared Jones.
16:05
That's actually here about 12:35 Eastern, 9:35 Pacific. A little morning baseball for us out here on the West Coast. Let's get going. Let's do it early today. I, I like it when they, they spread the action out like this.
16:17
I like the Pirates. Uh, they've swung the bats, I think, better, m- you know, better and, and just m- m- more than you'd think- Mm-hmm... from a Pirates team.
16:25
You think of Pirates, you think of pitching, you think of schemes. But they're right there in terms of runs scored.
16:29
They've swung the bats really well at home, and Eduardo Rodriguez is a major, to me, regression candidate, fade candidate. Uh, you look at the last two years, just his ERA, 5.04, 5.05, almost to the decimal point.
16:41
His expected ERA is the same as that this year, right in that low five range. But his actual ERA in the mid two's. Made an All-Star game. There's a, a lot of hard contact in his profile.
16:52
There's a lot of regression, I think, coming. I think Pittsburgh gets to him. And to me, Jared Jones, a lot of pedigree, a lot of talent, similar to all these Pirates pitchers.
16:59
He's, you know, coming off the injury, so there's always a little bit of an adjustment period to getting back to 100%. But I think I got the better pitcher here.
17:06
Uh, lineups may be a wash, maybe slight edge to Pi- the, to, to the Pirates here. And that was an incredible, incredible back and forth game last night where the Pirates trailed six-nothing bottom of the eighth.
17:14
Had plenty of chances to win it before Arizona eventually won. But I think this price is a little cheap and, and very much playable here for, uh, for the Pirates to win. Okay, I like it.
17:22
About two hours and 15 minutes from now, that's what I'm gonna go with. Uh, Baltimore at Detroit, a fairly high profile pitcher going in this one. Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers. How you playing this one?
17:35
Yeah, and a big game here too- Hmm... because every game for the Tigers is so important, where you win, you probably takes a couple steps closer to keeping them.
17:43
You lose, you take a couple steps closer to, uh, to trading them. It's almost like, you know, the reverse magic number. We talk about a magic number for a team to clinch a playoff spot or clinch a division.
17:52
This is almost the opposite, where two or three losses your, is your magic number, where you have to probably trade Skubal here in the next week or so. I like the under.
17:59
I talked about the under last night when I was on, uh, Prime Time with Femi Abebefe, and it was 8. It's 7.5 most places now. 7.5 is not 8, and if you're just giving away a half a run in baseball, that's dangerous.
18:11
I'll go under 4. Uh, you can get under 3.5 at plus money. I don't like going under 3.5. I don't really wanna lay the $1.60, though, to go under 4.5. So you can put half a unit on each.
18:20
It comes out to, like, $1.25, $1.30 or so. I think that's a good way to play it. Uh, Rodgers, who was great last year- Bad start to the season, but in nine starts since June, so from June 1st on,
18:32
he's given up more than two runs once, and that was a three-run outing. Everything else, zero runs, one run. He's actually been really good the last couple months. Skubal is Skubal.
18:41
Uh, I, I think this is like, you know, 2-1 after three. If you push on four, uh, to me that's such a key number in the first five.
18:47
But I think you get a well-pitched game here, so under four we'll call it here in the first five. Mets and the Braves, 1:10 Eastern today. This is Sean Manaea, who the Mets didn't wanna be in the rotation, and A.J.
18:59
Smith-Schaufer making his debut coming off of major injury, uh, for, for this Braves squad. What are you looking at in this one? Over. I'm gonna play over here.
19:08
I think that first off, when you have a total of eight, four plus four equals nine. So if you get both teams to four, obviously there's a ninth run coming somewhere.
19:15
And I just, I, I always fade these pitchers coming off long extended absences. And it doesn't always work out, but more times than not, it's a good practice. These pitchers just aren't sharp. They're not in a rhythm.
19:25
Uh, Manaea is very hittable. Acuña's back for the Braves.
19:28
So, uh, yeah, I don't love betting double headers, and there is another game tonight with, uh, with Sale going for the Braves, 'cause sometimes you get some funky lineups.
19:36
But to me, uh, yeah, I don't love the fact that Soto's out, but to me eight is enough here.
19:41
There's some meat on the bone here where you can still play the over with, uh, fading the debut, fading Manaea, and I think we, we, we go nine or above here. So I'm playing over here. Game one, Mets-Braves.
19:51
Make sure if you're tailing, you, uh- Mm-hmm, hmm... you do bet the right one. Yeah, good call. Uh, Will, the best single NFL futures bet a human being can make right now is what? Ooh, man. Ah, I am going to...
20:06
Man, I'm, I'm talking myself into Minnesota, and I was not on them last year. Yeah, you are. Let's go.
20:10
And I, I just think, you know what, they, they s- somehow went over 500 last year with about as bad a quarterback play as you can get, maybe outside of the Jets. That's a really good roster. It's a good coaching staff.
20:20
I, I know as a Viking fan, I, I've said for a while now O'Connell's a little overrated, but Flores is great. Over 5/1 to win that division, where you can kinda poke holes in those other three teams.
20:30
I like the Vikings here. What, what could go wrong, me talking myself into having some hope for the Minnesota Vikings? You bet it first, Will. Give me the confidence and I'll, uh, I might be a lot right along with you.
20:38
I like that Vikings team too. Oh, look at Kelly Bidleman. Yeah. Yep. Look at you. All right. You're, you're a toe in. All right. You're not all the way in, but you're a toe in.
20:45
E- every division bet that Will Hill has brought up, uh, so far this year, I, I'm on the exact same, uh, team with you. [laughs] So it's either gonna be a good or bad year for me and Will. P is Will Hill.
20:54
Should Have Bet More podcast at Not the Will Hill, and of course right here on the network. Will, appreciate the time, buddy. See you guys. Thanks. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
21:05
[upbeat music] Numbers Game here on Beast and Matt. Kelly, rolling a long heading right out to the guest line, 'cause we have a ton to talk about with Nick Whelan. That's right.
21:17
You can find him right here on the network, also over on Roto- Rotowire as well. Nick, how you doing, buddy? Doing well, guys. Doing well.
21:25
Uh, talk about off-air, I think we've finally reached the point where we are clear to just talk as much football- Fire. Yes... as we want. Just fire. Uh, as, as much- As much as you wanna talk to, buddy...
21:34
just firing away. I mean it- Yes. I mean, if you wanna stay with us for the next hour, yeah, we'll just, we'll just fire away on all of this. We, we might be done- All right. Say the word... with the AFC North then.
21:40
[laughs] Well, Nick, before we get into some, some bets that, that you've made, all of us play fantasy football. Everyone's got a draft that's gonna be coming up. Mm-hmm.
21:49
Who are two guys, not to put you on the spot, but who's a guy that is getting a ton of steam that you think is justified, and who's a guy that's getting a ton of steam that you're like, "Ah, let's pump the brakes on this dude"?
22:01
That's a great question, because we are in the middle of, of steam season right now. Mm-hmm.
22:05
You know, especially if you're following the, the best ball markets, which is where a lot of sharps and just a lot of people in general are drafting this time of year before you start to get into the home leagues and the redrafts in the next month.
22:16
Well, we'll start with some players I am, I am fading, and the number one guy for me is, is Cam Skattebo. And, like, I, I wouldn't say he's necessarily somebody who's flying up draft boards- Mm-hmm...
22:26
but he is somebody you probably have to take in the fourth, maybe the fifth round. See him go even higher than that.
22:32
And the, the, the party line [laughs] for me on Cam Skattebo, guys, has been I think he's more of a football celebrity than he is a really good NFL player. You know?
22:41
[laughs] I think people, people remember Cam Skattebo at Arizona State, and they love the story, and they love the personality and the back flips.
22:47
Uh, they, they forget that this guy's, yeah, he's an okay NFL running back. To me he is not a, he's not an elite talent. He wasn't drafted as though he's an elite talent.
22:55
He doesn't play in an elite offense to me with the New York Giants, and I think there's a ton of injury risk. You know, we, we saw that last season.
23:01
I think the way he plays, the way he prepares, it's just going to be like that through the early stages of his career. So he is somebody I am really not all that interested in.
23:11
You know, at the wide receiver position, I, I love the player in Jalen Waddle, but we are seeing him fly up draft boards over the last few weeks. And I, I get it to a degree. Change of scenery.
23:21
Denver gave up a ton to get him. There are still plenty of Sean Payton and Bo Nix supporters out there. But, I mean, this was not an overly efficient Denver passing game.
23:28
I did not feel like Bo Nix really took a notable step forward in year two. And, and you still have a, a really productive now number 1A, or 1B, excuse me, in Courtland Sutton alongside Jalen Waddle.
23:39
So the initial cost, uh, that we were getting for Jalen Waddle two months ago, I was in on. The updated cost, maybe not so much.
23:46
Nick, every year, uh, you know, there's one position or another where there is just more depth in, uh, you know, you know, than at wide receiver, the running back. Mm-hmm. You need, you got more time to address.
23:56
How do, how are you handling kinda opening rounds of drafts this year? What are the positions you really need to address early? You know, for me, it's running back, guys.
24:05
I, I think there's a bigger drop-off, uh, at running back than there is at wide receiver.
24:10
I'm, I'm a lot more comfortable peppering wide receivers in rounds four, five, six, seven, eights, you know, all the way into the double digits, whereas I think there is more of a defined cliff at the running back spot.
24:22
You know, I want to, I wanna make sure I'm getting at least one running back in the first two rounds. I'm not opposed to even starting running back, running back because of how much wide receiver talent we have.
24:31
But when you start to get into, uh- Running back 16, 17, 18 range i- is where it gets uncomfortable. That's, you know, that's where you find Cam Scatabo.
24:40
That's where you're getting into Josh Jacobs, who continues to practice for the Packers, but that situation still scares me. Trayveon Henderson, DeAndre Swift, you know, some of these guys who are in timeshares.
24:50
We don't know exactly how it's going to work out. So I don't, I don't wanna feel like I have to take one of those guys, and especially take them as my RB2, and then I'm starting them every single week.
25:00
So receiver, as usual, is really deep. And I, I would also say both quarterback and tight end, I am very, very comfortable waiting on both of those positions this year. Mm. I, I'm not gonna be the Josh Allen guy.
25:11
He's going far, far and away, you know, quarterback one. I, I just think there are so many names who are going after pick 100, whether it's Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford. Brock Purdy is around that range.
25:21
Kyler Murray, I have a ton of already. And then at tight end, some of these guys who are just boring veterans, I think have become big time, big time values this year. Led by Mark Andrews.
25:31
You find Travis Kelce in that range as well. I've traditionally not been a Kelce guy, but if I could get him at pick 125, I'm more than happy to make that click.
25:39
Uh, so both quarterback and tight end, I, I think, you know, there, there's a case to invest early, but to me, I would just much rather hammer running backs and wide receivers, and then pick up a quarterback who could conceivably be a top five type, top six guy after pick 100.
25:53
Perfect transition here into sports betting talk is you just mentioned Kyler Murray and how you've been getting a bunch of shares of him. Kyler Murray playing, uh, up there in Minnesota.
26:03
Hasn't officially been named the starting. We all, we all believe that he's going to be the starter there with that. And so are you buying in on this Vikings team? I am. I am, guys.
26:14
And I, I say that sitting here in the state of Wisconsin, which is not a- [laughs]... a popular opinion. Now, I, I... What I need to settle on is to what degree am I buying in on the Vikings?
26:22
Am I, am I in on Minnesota at plus 510 to win in the, win the NFC North? Yeah. I don't think I'm going quite that far, partially because of the schedule for the Detroit Lions.
26:30
I, I think the Lions are set up to be really, really good this season. But I, I do think Minnesota could finish second in that division.
26:37
I will happily take the plus money on the Vikings just to make the playoffs in the NFC. And I know it's gonna be an uphill battle.
26:43
I think when you look around the NFL right now, NFC and AFC, I mean, I count seven divisions where at least three teams are probably going into the season expecting to make the playoffs.
26:54
So I think the league is, is sneakily maybe deeper than it's been in a while, save for four or five teams at the bottom. And when you talk about Minnesota, I mean, obviously Kyler Murray is the headliner.
27:04
Credit to the Vikings for making this feel like a quarterback competition. I don't think that's the case whatsoever. I would be shocked if Kyler Murray doesn't run away with this job.
27:11
And we need to remember, I mean, the Vikings were a really competitive team. They were still a great defense.
27:15
They were still making it work despite having, I would say, probably the worst quarterback play in the NFL for the bulk of last season. And it wasn't just JJ McCarthy. It was also Max Brosmer. It was also Carson Wentz.
27:24
I mean, at no point was this offense functional. So even if you're not a big Kyler Murray supporter, one, you gotta remember, he's basically playing for free this year.
27:33
It's not like they gave him some big contract and had to make these roster sacrifices to bring him in. I think you're kinda adding him to last year's team, which still found its way into nine wins.
27:42
And again, even if you don't love Kyler Murray, he's going to be head and shoulders better than what we saw at the quarterback position last year.
27:49
I, I don't think we're talking enough about just how bad it was in Minnesota- It was so bad... and just how competitive that team remains. [laughs] Yeah, it was, it was very bad. It was awful. It's very bad, Nick.
27:57
I'm with you, man. [laughs] I th- I think you laid it out perfectly. I'm very interested in betting on the Vikings. I think they will be a bet-on team for me early in the season, game to game.
28:07
I kinda want to avoid the division too, so I'm, I'm with you. I think there might be a make the playoffs bet or something like that, that I'll be, I'll be staring at. I don't, I haven't settled on anything quite yet.
28:18
There's, there's another market, uh, that I know you l- you just made a bet in, in the AFC East. Gil and I were talking a bit about these last week, these division win totals that are out there.
28:28
Uh, what team did you land on an under here with? The Miami Dolphins, guys. Mm-hmm. Under one and a half division wins, uh, which basically just comes down to how many times did they beat the Jets?
28:39
You got two chances at it. Uh, I think that maybe they could split with the New York Jets. I, I know, you know, historically the Patriots have always had problems when they go to Miami.
28:48
I, I believe the Dolphins beat the Bills in a really bizarre game where the Bills just turned it over a ton of times last year. I don't really see that happening.
28:55
Uh, I, I think on paper, I mean, this Dolphins team is one of the worst, uh, that we've seen just roster-wise over the last five years or so. Apologies to Davon Achane, but the wide receiver room is completely anonymous.
29:08
The defense is completely anonymous. You have a first-year starting quarterback in Malik Willis, who I think is set up to fail, and then you have a first-year head coach.
29:15
Like, all the ingredients to me are here for this to be a completely disastrous season, and I think the Dolphins are ultimately okay with that the way that they tore down the roster this off-season.
29:25
So not only do I like the Dolphins under one and a half divisional wins, but you know, if you start to look into those fewest wins markets, those, you know, last team to get a win markets, Miami's pretty appealing.
29:35
You know, the Arizona Cardinals have far worse, uh, schedule to begin the year. They are double-digit dog... or excuse me, touchdown dogs at least in their first 11 games of the year, which is insane.
29:45
But I think when you compare those two rosters, there's a lot more in Arizona to me.
29:49
I could see that team squeaking out a couple wins that maybe they don't deserve, whereas it's gonna be an uphill battle for the Miami Dolphins from start to finish. Talking to Nick Wale.
29:58
Nick, you look at the roster, obviously the, the odds short shot to win it all is the Rams, and you look at this roster top to bottom.
30:05
You look at the fact that [laughs] maybe Aaron Donald is coming back to play alongside Miles Garrett at some point here soon as well.
30:13
Outside of an injury to Matthew Stafford, the coaching staff, the personnel, the everything that we know about it, l- w- where does this team go wrong? W- w- where are we going to be picking holes i- i- in the Rams?
30:23
It's just I look at this team and I'm trying to figure out a way to try to break them down, and I just can't do it Yeah, I mean, I just said Miami's one of the worst rosters we've seen in the last five years.
30:33
I think the Rams might be the best- Yeah. -that we've seen in that span. I mean, I'm, I'm totally with you.
30:37
And, you know, I, I think we talk so much about the Garrett trade and the, the potential return of Donald, which I think is going to happen at some point. Mm.
30:44
But we, we forget that this off-season began with them, you know, loading up at cornerback, which was a huge weakness- Mm-hmm. -for them, uh, this past season.
30:50
So un- unfortunately, I think you said it, which is the, the cop-out answer is injuries, right? It's like Davante Adams, he's had kind of a history of some of these hamstring injuries. He's in his mid-30s.
30:59
At this point last year, Matthew Stafford was in like a spaceship trailer on the sideline- [laughs] -at training camp. Uh, he had kind of a best case season last year. You do wonder if that health comes around.
31:09
But, yeah, outside of injuries, I, I really, really don't see this team getting derailed.
31:14
I know that's a cliche thing to say this time of year, but there's a reason the Rams have separated themselves in the Super Bowl market. I mean, plus 550 right now.
31:21
You gotta go all the way to 11 to 1 to even find the next NFC team. I'm with you, man. I just cannot do it at all. Of course, right here on the network, prop points over at Roto Wire as well.
31:30
Nick Whelan, appreciate the time, buddy. Any time, guys.
31:34
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
31:53
Shanahan nearly lost an eye- Yeah. -in the crash. That is a pretty crazy story coming out. Nearly lost an eye, and also, not that he...
32:02
I mean, it would've come out anyway, but, like, I guess good on him for manning up and saying like, "No, no, no, it was my fault." These people trying to say that it was some other, some kid's fault. Yeah.
32:09
And he's like, "No, no, no, it was my fault." Wasn't the kid's fault. That story was really starting to spiral out of control. Yeah. And I think good on Kyle Shanahan- Yeah... for just getting out in front of it. Yeah.
32:17
Or not, not out in front of it, but cutting it off before it went any further. Well, 'cause, well, 'cause you wanna know why. The kid's 20... Like, the way that we work now, that could ruin this kid's life for no reason.
32:27
Mm-hmm. He's 21 years old. Mm-hmm. It could ruin this kid's life for no reason. So- So at least he came out and was like, "No, no, no, no, no. No, no. Not what happened. I was at fault, not this kid."
32:34
Now, I still have, like, questions. I was reading about this earlier and he was talking about how he l- he l- he lost the phone between the seats a- and, uh, that's what, he was reaching down to grab it.
32:42
And they're like, "Yeah, I'm like reading something," the police report corroborated this. I'm like, "Well, how, w- how would they know?" Like, you can't know for sure. You just gotta take his word for it still.
32:51
[laughs] Like. I mean- I'm sure he's right, but you know. All that, all that being said, I mean, uh, look, I'm no 49er fan or anybody, but, but tip of the cap to that. Yep.
32:59
Because realizing the gravity of the situation and how we are as a reactionary society now, like, thank you for not ruining this kid's life for no reason. Yeah. I'm with you.
33:08
Now joining us on the guest line, Mark Borchardt. He's a pro, uh, MLB bettor over there, @basewinner over on the Twitter machine. And appreciate the time, Mark, as always.
33:16
And I know everybody is, is really wondering here as we get five days away from the deadline, if this deadline is going to be consequential whenever it comes to... from a betting standpoint.
33:25
I know Tarik Skubal the name that keeps getting dangled, but this Tiger team refuses to just lose and go away and all that, that, that, that division, as terrible as it is.
33:35
Anyway, I mean, in your mind, is there going to be somebody that gets moved that might actually change how you view the outlook of maybe even the entire American League or National League or something like that?
33:47
Oh, for sure, Matt. I think that there's gonna be some, some killer trades. The problem w- as a handicapper is they're probably gonna be right on the last day. So they go, they make it- Mm-hmm...
33:57
to August 3rd this year, which really puts a wrench in the, in the monthly win totals market. And I would be remiss if I didn't come on, 'cause Gil and I talk about it quite a bit. Congratulations to, uh, Mr.
34:11
Voice of Sports Betting, Gil Alexander, for 80 to 1 hit on Boston. And I did the math. I think that gives him like 15 free years. [laughs] So hopefully- That's a big one, yeah.
34:20
Hopefully we bo- hopefully we're both around in 15 years- Mm-hmm... 'cause we're getting up there in age, to see, to... Well, I hope he hits it before then. [laughs] But he's got 15 free years, you know.
34:29
So anyway, what, what a, what a cool, cool deal for him and, and, and, uh, it, it's really exciting for me, uh, you know, going on the show and talking about these monthly wins to just see how, how wonderful Boston did, despite for me, like my ratings for Boston not the greatest.
34:43
So, so anyway, yep, I think that, I think that there will be some, some, some big moves. I just don't know if it's gonna be in time to handicap that August win total market. So it's probably really tough.
34:55
And I, I notice they're not up yet. It's probably really tough to handicap that market from a, a oddsmaker's standpoint.
35:01
And I think, you know, as far as Skubal goes, I think the Tigers would be not smart if they don't get a lot for him. And perhaps the Cubs, uh, just based on my, my projections, and I'm, I'm pretty high on Cleveland.
35:14
I think that that's maybe, uh, uh, controversial to some baseball- Hmm... baseball hipsters, but, uh, I, I really like Cleveland. I think they're value in the playoffs and the division markets, Matt. Yeah.
35:25
Is there a, I, I know, a team or two, Mark, that you're just, whe- whether it's monthly wins, whether it's other futures bets, whether it's just kinda day-to-day betting, what you're thinking a, a week or two from now with these teams, are there a few teams that you've just got kinda pushed off to the side of I'll wait and see, uh, on this team, I'm gonna take a break either from betting them now or not considering them in futures markets at all?
35:46
Yeah, that's a good question, Kelly. Because not only that, um, are, are you gonna pull the trigger on some of these teams? Mm-hmm. And, like, where I'm showing value, I'm showing value on Houston.
35:57
In, in the division market, I have them 46% chance to win that division, and they're, they're way better than 46% from an odds standpoint. Cleveland, I mentioned, too.
36:06
Uh, so you, you gotta think, "Well, is this team gonna..." Are they gonna deal anybody, first of all? Hmm. And then you gotta, and then you gotta think, "Well, are they gonna receive anybody?"
36:16
And I think that those, both those teams that I just mentioned, Cleveland and Houston, are pretty neutral. But I'm, I'm showing real good value with them. So I would, I would say, uh, pull the trigger.
36:25
Just, uh, I've got, uh, like, like I said, I have, uh, oh, Houston a 46% chance to win that division, so plus 116. And then you gotta wonder, well, is Texas, Seattle gonna do anything?
36:37
But I, I think that that's a fairly neutral projection.
36:39
And then with Cleveland, I've got them, I think they were like minus 135 to make the playoffs, and I've got them at minus 280 And I, I think that if anything, uh, you know, Detroit's gonna get rid of their guys.
36:51
Uh, the White Sox I'm not too high on either. And then I wanted to talk about this guy. Hmm. Sorry to jump in and, and I'm kinda all over the place with my ADHD today, so just a little- I love it. I love it. Let's do it.
37:02
But, uh, I wanted to talk about the AL Cy Young market, uh, particularly Gavin Williams at 60 to one. And I thought that that was really...
37:13
I mean, first of all, the reason he's coming high on my radar is he's up, he's up to number three on my personal ratings. And so I dug in a little bit better. Four straight games with double digit strikeouts.
37:24
I don't think you see that a lot. And then if you go to the xFIP number on FanGraphs, you got Schlitter at 2.86. He's a heavy favorite. And then Gavin Williams 2.88.
37:36
Now, if that's not enough, you look at the counting numbers, which are very important, and I know, uh, Sheehan's come on the show and he's, he's right about this.
37:44
Innings pitched and strikeouts just from a counting some standpoint. And the second guy in baseball behind the Miz is Gavin Williams in, in total strikeouts. So you've got all that going.
37:55
60 to one, I think that that's... I wanna say that it's a, it's a good roll of the dice. Mm-hmm. But it's a good roll of the dice, Matt. Yeah, no, I, I, I definitely think that that race is, is not over either, for sure.
38:05
Uh, what are your, what do your numbers say about these middling National League teams?
38:10
So like, you know, somebody's gotta make the p- [laughs] someone's gotta make the wild card, and it's like we got the Diamondbacks, we got the Pirates, we got the Nats, we got the Padres, we got the Marlins, we got the Cardinals.
38:19
I guess to a lesser extent, the Reds are kind of a week-long winning streak away from being in the mix as well. Are there, are there any of these teams that you feel like you are higher on than the market?
38:29
Or, or maybe on the flip side of that, like, definitely think that the, they're, they're gonna fade over the second half here? Oh, for sure.
38:35
I'm, I'm, I'm down on Pittsburgh, and real- believe it or not, the Diamondbacks, who I've always liked, and I, I think that they're under... Uh, overvalued in, in the market, I guess, due to their... Mm.
38:45
Overpriced, I guess. And then the Nationals, I, I have them with a 43% chance, uh, to make the playoffs. So plus 129, I think they're, I think they're seven to one the last I checked, and it's really bolstered.
38:58
That's, that's a offensive, uh, rating, uh, bolster. Mm. Uh, the fielding's middle 15, offense seventh in baseball, and that's that. I guess that would be controversial to some.
39:07
I think that they're leading the, the, the National League at least in runs scored. So I think the Nationals probably a little bit under- undervalued, uh, in that particular market. Yeah, l- like that.
39:17
Uh, Mark, I know you had a couple... We got a couple bets for today we'll get to, but wanted to touch on, uh, one awards market. Manager of the Year, popular on the show today. Uh, thoughts in the AL and the NL for you?
39:28
I, I did because, not because I wanna throw shade on Will- Mm... because he does a great job. Uh, and, and, but I thought, you know, he's talking about Pittsburgh and I'm thinking, "Well, wait a second.
39:37
Arizona's higher than Pittsburgh in the standings. Arizona's dealt with injuries to... Well, Marte's been out, Carol's been out. Corbin Burns, who lives down the street from me, he's out.
39:48
[laughs] And, uh, I don't know if he's, he's coming back, but so they've overcome quite a bit of injuries. They're ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings. They have my... The starting pitching's lousy.
39:58
They're, they're bottom 10 by my ratings, but yet they're s- they're still, if the playoffs were to start today, guys, they're in the playoffs.
40:05
So Lovullo at 25 to one, I think that's how I would, I would go, uh, with that, Kelly.
40:11
But you know what, what's funny is you, you, you do things in the prism of your bet, and I've been, I've been having that bet all year. So Lovullo was the start of the year.
40:18
[laughs] And so you kind of see it from your prism, but I, I'm looking at it and going, "Well, I, I, I think at 25 to one he's better than the other guy from Pittsburgh," right? Yeah, yeah. Well, uh, we'll...
40:26
Don't worry, Will and Matt are looking at it the same way 'cause they've both been on, uh, Don Kelly the whole year. [laughs] Yeah, my, yeah, mine was just at preseason. Yeah, and I'm just like, I'm just rolling with it.
40:33
It's- Like, trying to will it into existence. It's so crazy that that's how we, that's what we all do, so. [laughs] All right. Yep. Talking to pro bettor Mark Borchardt.
40:40
Mark, we got the Rangers on the road at the Rays today. This is Mackenzie Gore going up against Ian Seymour. What do you like in this one? Yeah. Seymour's getting the, the, uh, the bulk start, and I like him.
40:52
He's 12th by my ratings. And then offensively, I think we got a big edge here. I've got Tampa Bay, the way they're comprised, at 12th. And then Texas, the way they're comprised, I've got 'em at 27. So a big edge there.
41:04
Little bit of an edge in the bullpen for the Rays. I've got them 15th in baseball, uh, versus a Rangers, uh, bullpen that's 21st in baseball.
41:13
I think this thing should be priced about minus 180, so you're getting pretty, really good value on this Tampa Bay team today. Of course, yesterday I went against... Have you ever done this, uh, Matt or Kelly?
41:23
You go against Cal Quantrill. I mean, the guy's terrible sabermetrically. [laughs] And he just, he had his best start of the year. Yeah. So they're off that loss. I think they're gonna rebound today.
41:32
Tampa Bay's a good play. All right, like it. Then one more for you, the Base Winner parlay of the day. What do you got for us today, Mark? Gotta have a Base Winner parlay, and it's real blue blood and it's real simple.
41:43
It's Detroit and the Yankees. And we had, we talked about Cy Young candidate, uh, uh, Gavin Williams. Well, these are the two guys ahead of him, Skubal and Schlitter.
41:53
And you put 'em in a parlay and it plays, pays plus 170. Gosh, how, how could you go wrong with this, guys? [laughs] There it is. There you go. I absolutely love it.
42:01
He is Mark Borchardt @basewinner over on the Twitter machine. Mark, appreciate the time, man, and good luck. My pleasure, guys. Have a good day.
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