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Jul 2, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 2, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 2, 2024
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45:43
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it.
0:17
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, back from vacation once again, in case you missed it yesterday, in the hizzy. Yeah. Barcarrota. Let's go. Let's ride. The barrage.
0:29
Um, you did a fine job last night in finding some props that we're gonna go through today. Uh, DraftKings has something called a Drive for Five in the NFL. It is essentially matchup bets with a tie thrown in.
0:42
Drive for Week Five. I kept doing that same thing too. I might have written it down on the rundowns, uh, differently. Drive for Five, Drive for- Oh, Drive for Week Five. Drive for Week Five. Right, we should be clear.
0:51
I'm sorry. [laughs] I should be clear. Drive for- I did the same thing... by the way, it shouldn't be Drive for Week Five either, it should be Drive through Week Five. I, yes, you are correct.
0:58
[laughs] It should be for Drive for Week Six. [laughs] Yes. [laughs] And so [laughs] we're off to a fine start this morning. Yeah, sorry DraftKings, we're trying to promote it. [laughs] You were trying to promote it.
1:07
Anyway, DraftKings did this, this, this great thing where they have a, it's called Drive for Week Five. What it is is essentially a matchup between two NFL teams with a tie thrown in, right? It's a three-way.
1:17
Um, and they put up six d- uh, they put up 12 different one of these or six different? I think it's 12. No, it's six. I was also looking at a d- Six different ones.
1:28
Yeah, I was also looking at a different state last night. I realized I had more options than what I had showed you originally. Oh. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Okay. So we're gonna go through a bunch of these today- Yeah...
1:36
'cause I believe that you have landed on something that is so bettable. I, I, I'm with you.
1:44
I, I mean, it's that I know we match on one of them, but, like, it was, as soon as I sat down, the first one I looked at, I'm like, "I'd, I'd bet this." I'd bet- "I'd bet this right now if it was available to me."
1:53
That's exactly right, and you hit on a point also, which is we don't have the ability to bet DraftKings here in Nevada. DraftKings is not in this jurisdiction, so not like we can influence it.
2:03
This is one of these where, you know, oftentimes it, you know, we go through props that are available where we can't bet them because they're not in Nevada, and we say, we're very honest, though, "Yeah, we probably wouldn't bet it even if we were there or not."
2:15
These, we would absolutely bet. So we'll get to those momentarily. Yeah, I, I mean, I think, I think I found three that I, that I would bet. I found two for sure, and, like, the other four- Right. [laughs]...
2:25
I kinda wanted to also. Like, I've got three I think I would bet and probably two more that I, are heavy leans one way for me. Oh, we gotta go through all of them. Um, we'll do that.
2:35
Drew Dinsick will join us here as well. Paul Spohrer will join us, Paul Carr, more soccer today. Uh, let me get this straight, uh, Kelly, I have a question for you. So, um, uh- Suck again...
2:45
how, how many, uh- [laughs]... how many goals did Romelu Lukaku score i- so far? Zero. Now, does he have any games moving forward to add to that total? Zero moving forward. So that's unfortunate, right?
2:55
That's a bit of a challenge. Yeah, that, that's bad. Okay. At least you guys went with the long shot bet of, uh, of golden boot.
3:00
I just had him to lead the, lead his own team in scoring, which he's not going to have accomplished. [laughs] Soccer, Paul Carr later on in the show. USA with a, uh, fine, uh, just a fine performance last night.
3:11
God, that was a gross game. I, can I be honest with you? Yeah. Fell asleep at halftime. It was bad. Yeah. I, I, it was- Fell asleep at halftime. It, I feel like I watched a lot of soccer yesterday, and boy it was brutal.
3:21
Um- There was not much scoring either in Europe or in Copa America. [laughs] Um, a lot of officiating, uh, uh- Well, this is what I wanna talk about...
3:28
outrage right in the US game last night that I don't even fully understand right.
3:32
Oh, I think I, like, at, for the half that I saw, not to get all Tony Kornheiser, that I, like, fell asleep at halftime, I don't know what happened, but the, that referee, and again, I'm, uh, we are not the biggest soccer experts in the world, but it was clear to everyone, the announcers, the halftime crew, that he had multiple, to say questionable is an understatement.
3:53
Yeah. There was the yellow card. He breaks, go to pull up the yellow card, and he let play resume. That was, uh, that was bizarre. He let play continue, I should say. Yes, that was bizarre.
4:00
And then there was a handball where the Americans had an advantage, and he whistled it dead. So- I, I, I don't re- I don't know, I don't know if I remember the last time a broadcast was as open- Oh...
4:12
about blasting a referee during the game, during a match, during a game like that last night. I mean, it was over and over again. Yeah, I'm just mentioning too. There's more. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
4:22
Paul Carr will get into that coming up.
4:24
Uh, first though, 'cause I know, uh- And then, and then I caught a video this morning where he [laughs] I guess Pulisic was angry the whole game about it, but he went up, went up to shake the, all the refs' hands after the game, and the guy b- the guy snubbed him.
4:36
The guy snubbed him? Pulisic, Pulisic put his hand out to shake and the guy snubbed him. [laughs] I know, it's amazing. Um, first though, some NBA news. You said some Donovan Mitchell news this morning real quick?
4:48
Yes, we do. Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs have agreed to a, the max extension, three years, $150 million. So he had one year left on his contract.
4:56
There was a lot of discussion whether he'd be tried to be mo- would he be moved this summer with that one year left, uh, of control on the contract.
5:04
Now what essentially he does, so this is a three-year max extension from now. Is, and in the third year there is a player option.
5:13
So really what it does is extend, extends Cleveland's control, uh, for him over the next two seasons, and then he's gonna have that player option up.
5:20
So we could be back, right back where we started from next summer already, started to, they're starting to talk about is he possibly on the market.
5:27
But three years from now is when they're expecting that next bump in salary, Gil, so everybody's kinda thinking, "Okay, he's gonna, he'll stay there for the next couple year, a couple more years, and then jump in on the first next big movement with the salary cap and be able to land a big deal."
5:43
You were, weren't you the guy that was like, "He's definitely out of there after this year"? Didn't you say that? I, I thought so. Yeah. I thought so. Good for Cleveland. Does that move the needle at all?
5:50
They're not cracking the top four in the East, are they? Well, it's so, so that's what, this is what's interesting about Cleveland.
5:55
Also, I, I, Darius Garland now becomes I, I mean, w- I would th- I would think this, but a lot of people have said this too, and we've gotten with, you know, this has all kind of been wrong.
6:04
Either, either Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland, one of the two of them, was probably leaving this summer. So if Mitchell's staying, is Ga- Garland now a little bit more on the open market?
6:13
There's been some reports, though, that they've been a little bit cl- more closed off talking about him with teams than expected. So maybe that opens up here, maybe it doesn't.
6:21
The one thing that's tough with Cleveland as far as wh- whether it moves the needle or not, Donovan Mitchell's gone.
6:25
'Cause what, I guess what I'm asking, the way to ask that is, was it built in to the market that he was staying or leaving? Um, y- it, I, I don't think it mo- it did not move much. Yeah, it did not move much.
6:35
So it was already built in. So it was kind of built in. Yeah.
6:36
Um, the, I mean, the thing that's tough with Cleveland is it's not, it, it, there's, they're different from a lot of other teams where a lot of these guys, if a lot of their younger guys just continue to improve, right, that's how they get better, right?
6:48
Is, is Mobley gonna take another step forward? Is Jarrett Allen gonna take another step forward? If Darius Garland's there, does he take another step forward?
6:54
I think the team's got the pieces there that they could be good, it's just we haven't really seen it, right, over the past couple years. They've been a good team in the East, they just haven't been a great team.
7:03
Um, the other thing is Klay Thompson signing with the Dallas Mavericks. Klay Thompson signing with the Dallas Mavericks, which is, you know, the official end.
7:13
We already knew that the, uh, the Warriors dynasty was over, but that marks the official end to the Warriors dynasty. I was retweeting a piece that, uh, you and I did in April. Yep.
7:21
When I said, if this is in fact the last game that Klay Thompson plays in a Warriors uniform, uh, w- you know, let's pour out a 40 for him, basically, and here's the tribute. Um,
7:31
Klay reportedly taking less money in pursuit of another championship. A guy who rarely knows seasons where he's not playing in an NBA finals, I guess.
7:40
So he's like, "Eh, let me see if I can, uh, latch onto, uh, Luka and the, and the Mavericks here." Significant for you or, like, just on the margins? Um, fairly.
7:49
I, I, I think the combination, if you look in, i- look at the whole of what Dallas did, um, this fra- with so far in free agency where you've, where you've got...
7:59
You've moved Tim Hardaway, you've moved Josh Green, um, and you're getting these pieces back in r- in, in, in Derek Jones Jr., which was obviously massive for them in the playoffs. Um, and you know, Tim Hardaway Jr.
8:11
was big for them in the regular season and then didn't play at all in the playoffs.
8:14
I think when you're exchanging those guys for Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, who I love, coming over from the Pelicans, I think that was a great pickup.
8:23
I think he is a, he might not be as great on ball defensively what, as what Derek Jones Jr. brought to the table.
8:30
But as far, he's still a good defender, big strong dude who's gonna be able to play in their three and the four and guard some of those guys on the perimeter, uh, that other teams are gonna throw out.
8:38
I think he's a great signing. Quentin Grimes is, is involved in that deal too. If Quentin Grimes gets back at all to what he looked like a couple years ago with the Knicks.
8:46
Overall, I think they, I think it is a pretty significant improvement from that group that they had a year ago.
8:52
And I mean for, you know, for those [laughs] of us that had Mavericks tickets, how many times were you just watching three pointers from above that break area just brick in that finals?
9:02
And now it's Klay Thompson who's gonna be there with all the open looks he's probably ever going to have wanted to s- to have seen his entire career with playing off of Kyrie and Luka.
9:11
Warriors meanwhile get De'Anthony Melton, looking for Lauri Markkanen maybe. Um, I just want to say this about Klay too.
9:18
Klay has, okay, s- four championships, four titles, six NBA finals appearances, five All-Star games. Um, but two of the coolest NBA records you could ever have. Oh, totally.
9:29
14 three pointers made in a game, which is the second coolest. Uh, Curry and a, and a couple others have 13 made in a game, but Klay holds it at 14.
9:38
And then the coolest of all time, 37 points in one quarter of basketball, which he did in the third quarter of a game against Sacramento Kings back in 2015, the year that the Warriors won 73 games.
9:49
I don't know if you've ever tried to relive that quarter, but if you look at the play-by-play, Klay doesn't take a shot for the first two minutes of it. In fact, I think he has a turnover, right?
9:59
So it's really 37 points in 10 minutes. And for the first almost seven minutes of that remaining 10 minutes, I think it's 6:58, he scores 19 points.
10:12
So the last three minutes and two seconds of that quarter, he scores 18. [laughs] Which is, that's what made it so unbelievable too. It was just, it crescendoed. It was incredible.
10:23
And I, I don't know how, I don't know if anybody ever looked this up, but like how many times in the history of the NBA has anybody scored 18 points in three minutes and two seconds?
10:32
It's probably, you can probably count it on one hand. Well, the o- the other one that was- Unless, of course, Wilt did it a couple times... you know, the f- the, the 14 threes game too.
10:39
The other one that was weird about that is he had like, wasn't it like 11 dribbles or something? Like, like- Oh, yeah. Never dribbles... it was some insane stat like that. It was amazing.
10:47
Like, he had more threes than dribbles in the game.
10:49
Straight to the Hall of Fame, but, uh, one more pit stop in Dallas apparently on the way there, trying to get himself another NBA finals appearance and then perhaps another NBA title.
10:58
Uh, I have tennis picks, five of them still to come. Can I rattle them off real quick? Yeah. All right. On the ladies' side, I'm on Victoria Golubic against Julie Niemeier. Golubic, G-O-L-U-B-I-C.
11:10
She's at, uh, I got her at -115 last night, all at visa.com/picks. And Olivia Gadecki, she's a +165 dog against Robin Montgomery. Those are still yet to start. And then on the men's side there are three.
11:23
Mackie McDonald, Mackenzie McDonald, the American, +128 against Emil Ruusuvuori. Rinky Hijikata. You know Rinky Hijikata, don't you, Kelly? Love Rinky. Uh, -135 against Flavio Cobolli.
11:35
And then the over 44.5 games in the Christopher Eubanks-Quentin Halys game, which should be a serve bot battle. Those five. I'll run them back on the other side as well. Drew Dincic as well.
11:48
Numbers Game, Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]This is the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Biddle in.
12:05
We'll get to those, uh, NFL props coming up, uh, on the show. I just want to say, uh, the, uh, the Royals July bet, Kelly, um, Circa closed.
12:15
When Circa took them down yesterday, when the month of July essentially started with three baseball games yesterday, the Royals were plus 650, and at Caesars, I don't know, is it still up at Caesars? I think so.
12:26
They are the short shot at 7-1. Really? Yeah. Did we do that? That, that moved. Um- Was it 17 to 1, right? That you betted at? Yes, sir. 17 to 1. Yeah. Yeah. It typed up on that graphic, yeah. Yeah.
12:40
Drew Dinsick, kind enough to join us once again, @whale_capper. Uh, the Deep Dive podcast he does with Andy Molitor, about to launch into his unbelievable NFL previews on that podcast.
12:51
Uh, and then NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with the, uh, Australian-accented Jay Croucher, which makes everything sound super-duper smarter than he already is.
12:59
It's Drew Dinsick joining us, uh, from Long Beach, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Um, men's side, there's really no headline yet. It's just kind of standard operating procedure so far on the men's side.
13:11
Yeah, I mean, the big headline is we were gonna say, uh, farewell to Sir Andy Murray in singles. Yes, yes And, uh, nah, not to be.
13:18
Uh, he was gonna kind of get his, uh, going away, you know, opportunity on center court, withdraws, match, now gets a lucky loser. I think Murray, it sounds like, is probably still gonna try to play doubles.
13:31
Um, I'm not exactly sure what's going on with him, and I definitely didn't fancy him as going to go deep into this tournament regardless, 'cause he's just had back surgery.
13:41
But, uh, um, all said, uh, it is still kind of fascinating that, uh, you know, Rafa goes out in the French, and now Andy Murray is gone, and at Wimbledon, uh, Joker is kind of the last of the kind of old guard remaining.
13:54
And, uh, you know, I think his-- I, I'm kind of coming around on his draw. Uh, the bottom half looks very beatable.
14:02
Uh, Q3 is sort of the, you know, the, the by default weakest quarter because it doesn't have a Sinner, it doesn't have an Alcaraz, it doesn't have a, have a Djokovic.
14:10
Um, and Djokovic got, uh, I think a very, very fair draw, particularly early on. Like if he was going to get tested in this tournament, it was gonna be in the first couple rounds before he had his legs under him.
14:20
Um, and you know, before he kind of knew sort of the state of his knee and what he was capable of doing.
14:25
Um, and he gets a very, very soft landing here, uh, with, uh, taking on qual- you know, basically back-to-back qualifiers, uh, who have less than about a two percent chance to, uh, defeat him outright in a best-of-five match.
14:38
So he'll be there in round two, I mean round three, and that's where things will get a little bit interesting.
14:43
But, uh, overall, I don't really see anyone on the bottom who has enough pedigree, enough quality to get the better of him on grass.
14:51
Um, the breakout player so far for me, at least eyeball test, has been, uh, uh, the Frenchman who came through as a lucky loser, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
15:01
Holy smokes, he has one of the most dynamite serves, uh, that you will ever come across. So far right now, he's up 2-1 in a fourth set breaker against Seb Korda. He has 40 aces.
15:12
His first serve percentage, uh, points one. Goodness Eighty-four percent. Like, like he is, uh, just absolutely dynamite.
15:19
And, uh, Korda has so far produced 11 break chances and converted zero of them because basically, like Perricard's doing this thing where you know when, uh, you have confidence in your serve, and you're like, "Okay, well, first was a, was a fault, uh, I'm gonna take a little bit off this second serve."
15:35
Not Perricard. [laughs] Like he's out there bombing 140, uh, on his second serves, and I, I don't know that I've counted as many second serve aces as I've seen in this match so far this morning. Wow.
15:45
So, uh, very, very cool to see, uh, him kind of show up because he is, he is just shooting up the rankings right now.
15:51
He is having a magnificent spring, um, and, uh, just in general is, uh, kind of has exactly the right, uh, mindset to be a, a problem, uh, in that portion of the draw.
16:01
So yeah, um, excited to see what Dra- Jack Draper looks like, if the nerves are gonna be tough for him, uh, now that he's sort of carrying the weight of expectation of the, uh, of the UK.
16:11
Um, but, uh, yeah, I think, uh, in general, um, you know, Sinner took care of business yesterday.
16:18
He's got a tough test against Berrettini tomorrow, uh, and I think in general that's gonna be a, uh, uh, a fascinating match to watch because, uh, Sinner had some wobbles yesterday, and I thought he was gonna be the best player in this tournament.
16:30
I thought he was kind of exactly primed to, to break out on grass 'cause, you know, remember two years ago, he gave a, a very in-form Djokovic a very real test, uh, in, uh, I believe the quarterfinals and, uh, took him to, um, you know, a fifth set, uh, with, uh, the level he was able to produce.
16:47
And Sinner is now a much better player than he was then.
16:50
So, uh, I kind of assumed that this, uh, championship went through Jannik Sinner, but, uh, again, yesterday I was not, uh, super impressed with what we saw even though he was up against a real opponent.
17:00
Um, and, uh, just in general, like his path is not easy here.
17:04
So, um, yeah, I think Alcaraz is still a bet against for me, but, you know, and, and just that's more of along the lines of having not seen the form from him so far this year that he carried through last year to the championship.
17:17
But, um, you know, this probably comes down to the big three, uh, and, uh, winner of Sinner/Alcaraz, uh, taking down Joker.
17:24
Yeah, Jannik Hanfmann, a 35-year-old, uh, g- took a set off and covered the game spread against Sinner yesterday.
17:30
All right, uh, NBA, anything happen so far free agency-wise, and I will throw in the draft as well, that has triggered anything for you bet-wise, thought-wise, anything? Uh, not really.
17:45
I would say that I agree with the market move on the Sixers being the second choice in the East.
17:51
Um, but at the same time, if you are betting your hard-earned dollars in the month of July on the Sixers, you are putting the, uh, you're putting your hopes and dreams in the, uh, the health of Joel Embiid's knees, uh, which is a bad bet in my experience.
18:08
So, uh, if you want to have some Sixers exposure, I'm fine waiting until April. Um, and I think in general, uh, there's no one in the East that has done much to, to really kind of move the needle for me.
18:19
I thought- The price that the Knicks paid to get Mikal Bridges was hilariously bad.
18:25
Um, I know that, like, a lot of those first round picks are just gonna be in the high 20s, and they have a good enough young core that they're gonna c- you know, they're gonna be good for all of those years that they're giving up [laughs] their first to the Brooklyn Nets.
18:36
But, um, I don't rate Mikal Bridges even close to the, uh, compensation that they gave up for him. Um, and then, uh, yeah, I, I was, uh, a little, um, a, a little surprised at some of the moves in the West.
18:50
Um, I don't think anyone's gotten better besides the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the biggest move for the Oklahoma City Thunder was bringing in Alex Caruso.
18:58
Um, and, you know, they obviously spent some money on, uh, you know, Hart and Stein, who's g- who's good.
19:05
Like, don't get me wrong, like, that's a fun piece, but, uh, they have now a potential closing five on defense that looks extremely dynamic and very, very good.
19:15
I don't see a weakness now on the defensive side of the ball, and, um, the Thunder should be able to basically win with defense, uh, next year, and I would make them the, you know, the favorites in the West at, as currently rostered.
19:27
Uh, and everybody else looks to have taken a step backwards. Nuggets take a step backwards. Uh, Timberwolves not really doing anything is surprising. Um, and, uh, I thought Dallas got, maybe it got worse.
19:38
Um, they have now de- more defensive questions within the absence of Derrick Jones Jr. Um, and, uh, I think in general, um, you know, LA Clippers down. Phoenix Suns, nothing.
19:51
Uh, you know, so, you know, the West which looked like a gauntlet on paper, uh, particularly last year in the playoffs as you looked across the quality of teams that made it into the final eight, I, now it looks, it looks like it's taken a step back to me.
20:03
So, um, you know, if the Celtics, uh, if the Celtics aren't, you know, fairly priced to win the title, uh, considering that I think they have at least a 50% chance to win the East, uh, I think that's the bet to be made.
20:14
And Jayson Tatum just signing a new deal where he's making over 50 million a year. 50 million. Not bad if you can get it. Uh, all right. [laughs] Uh, last- Big number. Big number.
20:26
You know, 50 million here, 50 million there. All of a sudden it's real money. Um, all right, last two minutes here.
20:31
Last week you came on the show, you were kind enough to give us, and I think I'm counting this right, 47 different Olympics bets.
20:36
[laughs] Um, do you, do you have anything, uh, any Olympics thoughts of the moment as we approach the Olympic Games here later this month? Yeah.
20:47
Um, I watched, uh, yeah, so we can follow up the swimming commentary with a little thoughts of track and field and gymnastics, which I watched this last weekend.
20:55
Um, a little up and down for us on the track, uh, as far as kind of qualifying goes.
21:01
Uh, we had a couple expected performers who, uh, I had kind of softly penciled in for gold, like Athing Mu in the 800 for the women, uh, who did not qualify because she tripped and fell in the final race.
21:12
Um, and, uh, you know, in general, like outside of Sydney McLaughlin, I wasn't especially impressed with any of the runs from any of the men or women.
21:20
I think, uh, our men sprinters in general, looking at the market, are a little overrated coming into this one. Um, and, uh, so I'm, I'm kind of bracing for disappointment out of Team USA on the athletics- Wow...
21:32
uh, in week two. Um, and then the opposite for gymnastics.
21:36
Our women's gymnastics program, uh, you know, the, you'll remember from, uh, Tokyo, uh, Simone Biles was expected to win five gold medals, but she got the twisties, you know? She did. And- Yeah...
21:49
the derailed, uh, her efforts in twen- in the 2020 Olympics. Um, and I gotta tell you, her qualifying, uh, up in Minnesota was dynamite.
21:59
Uh, she was as good as her peak performances in, uh, vault, in floor, uh, and close in, uh, balance beam. So, uh, that launches Team USA to very likely gold for the team.
22:13
It launches her to likely gold for individual all-around, and she should win gold in, well, she, I think she will win gold in vault, probably floor and beam as well.
22:22
So she's back in the four to five gold medal territory, which would be huge, because Team USA's over 39 and-a-half gold medals is, uh, staring at me. Will they put up a world record prop for McLaughlin probably?
22:35
Oh, without question. Without question. Yes. Yeah. Yeah, and I would take yes on that- Yeah... 'cause she looked like she had more to go. We got steeplechase. [laughs] That's next week.
22:44
We got twisties and yips in two consecutive segments. Well done, Drew. Thank you. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
22:56
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:00
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings here at Bar Canada at The D, downtown Las Vegas.
23:10
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billings. Kelly, if you could do a, uh, a, just a PSA promo, not a PSA, but a promo for, uh, Bar Canada at The D, what, what would you say? What would you say to the fine people?
23:20
Oh, my gosh. Well, first of all, uh, some of the v- best video poker pay tables in town, so if you're into that, you should get on down here. Uh, and if you're like me- Pre- preferably the one right behind Kelly?
23:30
Right, right, yeah. Yeah. During the show, right behind me- Yeah...
23:32
just shove aside the, uh, red ropes like a lot of people do, and just, uh, light up a cigar and, uh, sit right behind me and blow smoke in my general direction. That's always nice. Sure.
23:40
It's always nice to have during a show. Um, but I, I don't like, the, these are the spots that I love to watch games. Get, get me in front of a video poker machine with all these TVs that Bar Canada has. Fire it up.
23:51
I could sit there for hours. You, you do lo-- you love nursing a, nursing a drink and playing yourself some video poker I do. I do That's your thing Yeah, very much so Okay. All right.
24:00
Uh, you wanna do more NFL or are we waiting on Paul? What are we doing? Yeah, we're waiting on Paul, so we're gonna do some more NFL I think Let's do some more NFL. Okay, so this is- Technical difficulties Tech...
24:06
Yeah, it happens. So here's, here's the dealy.
24:09
So, uh, before we were talking about these great props that Kelly, uh, discovered over at DraftKings, and it's always good to dive into a DraftKings, uh, app, because there are so many different things to bet.
24:19
We talked about this before baseball season. That's how I discovered the monthly bets, uh, was, "Oh, wow, DraftKings has this. I wonder if anybody here has this."
24:27
Thank goodness DraftKings did in March, April, 'cause otherwise I never would've discovered it here, it never would've occurred to me. Uh, and then DraftKings since hasn't done it, but, but thank God that they did.
24:35
And now in the NFL season, um, they have tons of stuff, including the drive for week five. It's really through week five, matchups of NFL teams, um, of NFL teams, with a tie thrown in there as well.
24:46
So Kelly talked about a couple he liked. Uh, we both matched on the Commanders over the Patriots. Commanders minus 135 to me is a very bettable price. The other one that I loved, and I like a bunch of them, right?
24:58
We can get into some of these others too. But the other one that I loved was the Browns are matched up against the Steelers. Now, I loved this one so much, Kelly, that it made me think about other bets too.
25:09
So Cleveland, this is what Cleveland has, first five. Dallas at Jacksonville, then they have the Giants at the Raiders at Washington. So Dallas at home at Jacksonville. Okay.
25:23
But then Giants at home, Raiders on the road, Washington on the road. So two that p- you know, the common person would think are difficult, three not so difficult. Here's what Pittsburgh has.
25:33
Now, remember, the Pittsburgh Steelers famously, and we've all said this, not just here on this show, but everybody on this network, everybody in mainstream media, their way, the way that the Pittsburgh Steelers close their season is the hardest gauntlet of, gauntlet of games you will ever see on any team's schedule, the way that the Steelers close.
25:52
Well, guess what? As we pointed out at the time too, their opening to their schedule ain't that easy either. Here's what Pittsburgh has to start the season. At Atlanta, at Denver in the elevation, Kelly.
26:03
Oh, you might call it altitude, not me. [laughs] At Atlanta, at Denver, then Chargers at home, at Indianapolis, Dallas at home. Good God, Cleveland is a m- plus 105 proposition here.
26:20
Pittsburgh plus 150, the Ties plus 280. Give me the Brownies at plus 105. Are you kidding me? They got a Giants, a Raiders, and a Skins game in there. Pittsburgh has literally zero gimmies.
26:32
Even if you think Denver stinks, it's still into elevation. Browns plus 105. I, in fact, i- in fact, this got me thinking about how in sports betting, you know, it's often good to be contrarian to the common opinion.
26:48
When we have a college basketball play that, like, different hosts on the network love- Yeah... and nobody else loves the other side, we always sort of say, "Oh boy, you know what that means."
26:56
On the Megapod, if three of us land on a certain team, we always say to each other out loud, we're like, "Oh no, if three of us have it, it's a d- a de- a definite loser."
27:04
Just this week alone, like I was talking about the, uh, the Royals with July wins, and how it's contrarian thinking to, to take a team, like I did with the Astros in June, of a team that has fe- some of the fewest games scheduled in a given month, and trying to bet them most wins, but I explained why.
27:19
Um, there are other things. People love the Eagles. I don't love them so much. So it's good to be contrarian.
27:24
But every once in a while, something comes along in sports and in sports betting where you're like, not only is it a consensus opinion, but it is so ridiculously right
27:33
that you just have to go with it, and that is the Steelers and the season win total under, which I've already bet once, Kelly, right when it came out.
27:41
But as I'm, as we're going through this prop, and I like the Browns plus 105 and the drive for five against the Steelers, again, it triggered the Steelers thing where I'm like, "How in the hell?" Can I use that word?
27:51
Is that allowed? How can this team come close to their season win total? Yeah. How? So seven and a half is an alternate season win, under. I'm betting that next. I may bet it right here, right now- Yeah. I bet-...
28:05
on the Steelers... I bet the eight and a half pretty heavy, um, uh, you know, earlier in the year. I'm with you, though. This is... Yeah, you know, but Gil, come on. I mean- I know what you're about to say...
28:15
you know we have to say it But d- is that- They've never had a losing season, Gil. Is- How could you possibly make that bet? Is that artificially propping this up? I...
28:24
God, I would hope not, because- I, no, I don't think so. I don't think so That would be crazy, right? It would be crazy. That would be crazy Because if you look back on, like, Mike Tomlin's seasons, right?
28:38
How- I've been on the under the past two y- two years? Okay Three years? I don't even... No But think, but think about this. So, like, there's some eight and eights in there, and there's a nine and eight- Yeah, yeah...
28:45
and there's a... Don't, correct me if I'm wrong. If you go back into those seasons, there are games where, like, they miraculously won- [laughs] Yes, yes... or they somehow figured out a way to win.
28:55
And so if that just changes, right? And they have one season in there where they don't have the non-losing season, none of us are ever mentioning this, and none of this matters.
29:07
So that, think how r- it, it was like that Triple Crown thing we used to talk about. Oh my God, it's been 37 years since a horse has won the Triple Crown, since Affirmed won it in 1978.
29:18
And so we, we say this so much and so much that it becomes this thing that actually, like, all it takes is one extra level of thinking, like we just did with Tomlin and, and how he got to all his records.
29:31
If you actually look back at Triple Crown races, there were so many near misses. Like, the fact that it didn't happen didn't mean that it was likely to continue happening.
29:40
Now, I know it's not, it doesn't happen every year, but that's m- that's not because that it's something that a horse can't achieve if the right horse comes along, and American Pharoah broke that streak.
29:49
But, and we've had one since. So I, I just, uh, uh, Justified also won a Triple Crown, if I'm not mistaken. So, um- Point being, this is just one of these things.
29:59
The Steelers' schedule to me is one of these things, and the, and the season win total under is one of these rare things in sports.
30:05
Now, if I end up being wrong and Mike Tomlin ends up having a non-losing season again, my God, not only am I tipping the cap- Yeah... I'm taking Kelly's ca- hat, cap, and I'm tipping that one, too.
30:14
[laughs] I've been wrong about it for I don't know how many years in a row now. But this to me seems like one of the rare things that comes along in sports betting. Not rare, but, like, once in a while- Yeah...
30:23
it comes by where you're like, "No, everybody's actually right about this. They cannot possibly get to it." I would think that, too. I, a- and, and going back to the drive for week five, I like, I like your bet.
30:34
That was one that I've looked at as well. I, I have my questions about- I forgot that's how we started this, the drive for week five... I have my questions about Cleveland offensively still.
30:41
Like, that, it's just, like, I've been the guy who the past couple years on the other side of it, right?
30:46
Like, that not only have I been wrong about the Steelers, I've been wrong about the Browns for the most part, too, 'cause I thought Deshaun Watson was gonna be so much better [laughs] than he has been.
30:53
Um- Well, he's only, he's only played 11 games- It's wild. I know. It's wild... for them in two seasons.
30:58
I just, the, the part I don't get, like, I can't get on board anymore with, with, with what a lot of people seem to be i- is, like, that this is the year that he's gonna...
31:08
I'm like, I, how many, how many more years is it gonna be, "This is gonna be the year," where Deshaun Watson c- you know, comes out and looks great?
31:15
I, I mean, I really think this is maybe the last year you could really say something like that before we have to move on.
31:19
Because of all the injuries, you could at least say that, you know, you know, we haven't seen as much of him as we should. Brownies seven and four in those 11 games.
31:27
I think I like, I think I like your bet actually better than my Dolphins one simply because of the price. I, I, I think the- How are they plus money? Yeah, I think the w- I think the wins are probably about the same.
31:37
I don't. Like, I have some questions about- I don't. Well, no, I'm s- I'm talking of, like, the, to, compared to the Dolphins' schedule with the Browns. Oh. But I'm weighing minus 140 compared to your plus 105. Yeah.
31:47
So I actually think, yeah, but yours is probably a little bit better. There is, like, uh, there's some teams, though, like, I mean, gosh, where we're at right now in the off-season with the Dallas Cowboys, like,
31:57
do you have any idea what to expect out of that team week one? Well, we, Wyatt and I were talking about this. Not just Wyatt and I, but we had Zack on talking NFC East with us last week when the, when the guide came out.
32:06
And, and my whole thing is while I am down, just talking NFC East, while I am down on the Eagles compared to others, I did concede that the Eagles could end up winning the division by, the, the word I used was the, uh, the political convention word they use, which is by acclamation.
32:22
Like, everybody else is just gonna bow out. And then, and Dallas, the thing is with Dallas is Jerry Jones all of a sudden doesn't wanna pay anybody. Yep.
32:31
He's like, "No," he, like, Jerry finally figured it out that maybe the approach he's been taking all these years is off. So he's, like, not paying anybody at the current moment.
32:40
And I just wonder if Dallas starts poorly or has a bad first half of the season, does it become this, and we'll never know this publicly probably. Maybe we will may- but most likely we won't.
32:54
If there's this sort of, like, internal insurrection where they're like, "And he's not paying us." I, I think that, I think that's absolutely possible. So I, that, that, and that's part of my, uh, like, that's fine.
33:05
You don't like the Eagles? That's fine. I like the Eagles, but that is part of the- Yeah. No, you're right... like, I haven't made, I, and I haven't made a bet on them yet.
33:12
I'm, no, but I'm going to make a division bet on them, and I don't really know what I'm waiting for at this point. But part and parcel with what I'm just saying, w- so even if the Eagles do win the NFC East by default,
33:21
are, most people still think they're either the best or the second best team in the NFC, and I- Second best. I couldn't put them above San Francisco. Well, okay.
33:30
I think there are some, but what I'm saying is I think there is a school of thought where they are not even a top four. I, no, they're, they're not even a top three team.
33:40
Like, that the San Francisco, Detroit, and Green Bay might end up being better than them. I, okay, so I can't, I can't push back on that today.
33:49
I think that there's, I think there's still way too many unknowns for me personally on Green Bay and the Rams for how excited people are about both of those teams. Like, I- I didn't say the Rams. I meant to, yeah...
34:00
and I, no, I know you didn't. Yeah. But those are the two teams that I feel like everybody's getting real excited about that I'm like, "I'm gonna wait and see a little bit here."
34:07
The Rams, the Rams kinda took that step forward I, I, I thought they would last year, but even more than, than I expected.
34:14
I don't know if they can replicate that again and even, even continue to get better this next season. Again, shout out- But the Packers, absolutely, they could. Shout out to DraftKings for these drive for week fives.
34:23
We could actually go through more of these. I don't like them- Yeah, yeah... quite as much, but I, I like, and we're, uh, we're efforting Paul Carr as well. Yeah, we got Paul coming up next. Paul's next.
34:30
Well, like I said, soccer on the other side. Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:34
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:52
Back on the numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D, the lovely D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland, it's a numbers game.
35:00
Uh, did you see, uh, Kelly, that the, uh, Astros, they won yesterday, but they didn't get their first hit till the fifth inning? Because clearly, you know, the cele- the June celebration.
35:08
[laughs] They w- they probably were partying late into the night. That's right. [laughs] And, you know, they just weren't ready to go when the game started.
35:16
As one does when you- [laughs] As, when you win a June championship, that's what you do. Paul S- Paul Spohn joins us from, uh, Austin, Texas, where Kelly was just at. Did you call Paul Spohn when you were there?
35:26
I did not call Paul Spohn. No, I did not. Oh. I did not. Cour- courtesy of the progressive- He had a great time, though. Great time... courtesy of the progressive guest line. Yeah.
35:32
As long as he had a good time, there's lots to do. It's no big deal, and I'm a homebody anyway. Let's be honest. I wouldn't have gone out. Uh, Paul wearing a Florida Marlins cap and a Pink Panthers shirt today.
35:43
There we, that's what we got going on here. Um, wait, because people were asking this on Twitter, what was your fav- did you have a favorite food, a favorite restaurant that you went to in Austin while you were there?
35:52
I got a lot of barbecue questions. I was only there for I guess I was there five days. So we only did barbecue once. Long time. It was on the second day. We went to, we went to LA Barbecue, LeAnn's Barbecue, uh, Paul.
36:02
Sure. Was amazing. Yeah. It was incredible. Yeah. It was some of the best barbecue I've ever had in my life. Thankfully, we also had the Uber driver on the way there. Yeah.
36:10
Where, uh, I'm sure you guys have run into this, the Uber driver who knows the historical background of anything you wanna know about in the city.
36:17
So, like, it's kind of comical and annoying, but also was extremely helpful. [laughs] Where he's like, "So this is what happened with the barbecue. Like, LeAnn left whatever in, in Houston, came down to Austin." In 1878.
36:28
Exactly. [laughs] Exactly. I had an Uber driver in San Francisco the other day that we were on the freeway when you go into the city from, from the south, from the airport. Yeah.
36:35
There's a spot in the traffic, everybody knows this, on the 101 where it grinds to a halt. And you know what he started doing? It, which wasn't annoying at all.
36:42
You know how the race car drivers thing when they wave the yellow flag and they start turning back and forth like this? Oh, gee. He was doing that in the middle of the freeway. Oh.
36:49
I was like, "What are you, what are you doing?" [laughs] Anyway, Paul Sporer is here from Austin. Uh, Paul, I don't know if you know this, so we've been betting on this show.
36:58
I've been betting these- Betting on this show? Oh, the, this... [laughs] Oh, no. I, that, that wasn't the end of the sentence. [laughs] Oh.
37:03
[laughs] These monthly, uh, Major League Baseball markets of most wins, and I don't know in the history of this show if we've gotten as much traction on anything else, more, uh, traction on s- on anything else than we have on this.
37:16
Maybe as much, but not more. Um, and it just has made baseball so fun. Like, when it's so easy to drift in a normal, you know, a 162 game schedule. Yeah.
37:26
If you, if you're not constantly locked in with a bet, some of us who are not, like, as deep into baseball as you, we get, we get super locked into these things.
37:34
And I'm just wondering, man, there's gotta be ways beyond betting for baseball to make this interesting in an NBA kind of way where they do, like, in-game, you know, they're doing in-season stuff in basketball.
37:44
And I wonder if Rob Manfred, I, I, I even hate that I'm even, uh, suggesting this.
37:48
[laughs] Because, because it's like I, I love the purity of baseball, and I hate some of the rule changes, but man, some of this might be interesting for, you know, growing the sport. I don't know. Yeah.
38:01
I mean- Yeah, maybe not. Maybe not... they have to be interested in it. Like, yes, you're not wrong. Yeah.
38:05
Again, the, the, the sigh and the somber tone is because of who is in charge, and, uh, some of the things that we've seen come out of that group thus far.
38:13
But yeah, I mean, I actually used to play in a fantasy league that, uh, not only had the, the prize for the whole year, but each month. Yes.
38:18
Every month the winner w- was fighting for something, so you could have the most wretched season ever, but win September because you picked up three call-ups and get your money back, right?
38:27
Like, so there's something to play for, and that's one, one of the bigger problems of fantasy baseball. You know, it obviously doesn't hold a candle to football in terms of popularity because of the ease of, of football.
38:37
It's one day a week. It's just not that hard. And I'm not saying that to b- uh, besmirch fantasy football. I play it, I enjoy it, but it's very easy, and that's why it's so popular. Baseball does need more things.
38:47
Obviously, DFS fills some hole there. But what you've been talking about, like with these, you know, picking Cleveland and Houston as your, your monthly champions, it's, it's a lot of fun.
38:56
I do like kind of breaking the season down a bit more. Heck, even with my rankings these days, my starting pitcher rankings, I like breaking it down.
39:04
Instead of saying like rest of season, what are your rest of season rankings in May? I don't know, because I have no idea what's gonna hap- why try to be that precise? Here's my next four weeks of rankings.
39:14
So e- even just breaking things down in general in baseball makes it more digestible in general. So I'm not surprised that you're finding success with that with your shorter term bets. All right.
39:24
I'm gonna ask you a bunch of impossible questions to answer then. Sweet. Just based on with that backdrop, now I'm gonna ask you impossible questions. Can't wait. Um, every division... Okay.
39:31
So four out of the six divisions, second place team is six games or more behind the first place team.
39:37
The only divisions that are closer, Houston's three games behind the Mariners in the AL West, and the Orioles and Yankees are in a, um, basically a de facto tie. Dead heat. Yeah. Uh, difference of percentage points.
39:50
How many actual great division races will we have down the stretch of September? So how many more than the, the two that they're, are shaping up right now? Well, will, will those- The East and the West?
40:03
Well, no, no, including those. Like, will those still be? Oh, okay. Yeah. I think those will hold. Okay. I think Orioles-Yankees will remain a great battle.
40:11
Um, I think, you know, I talked last week about the other Texas team, the Rangers, uh, me thinking that they could come into the mix too.
40:18
They didn't go out and have the best week after that, but I'm not, I'm not terribly concerned there.
40:23
I still think both Texas teams can give the Mariners a lot to handle because the Mariners hitting just doesn't impress me.
40:28
Now, pitching can c- paper over a lot of issues, and that's what they've done this year, uh, the Mariners have, but I don't know that they're gonna be able to fend off these two Texas teams.
40:37
Obviously, chief among them right now is Houston. And then I still think there's a path for Atlanta to get close to Philly despite some of the struggles and injuries they've had, right?
40:46
They've lost two of the greatest players in baseball in Strider and Acuna, so the fact that they're only eight out is a bit of an achievement in a weird way. They're still a deep team.
40:55
They still have a motivated general manager who's very sharp, but they need to clean up that lineup.
41:00
They are running a half lineup right now in Atlanta, and it kind of started even before the Acuna injury, but then you take him out.
41:06
'Cause we were always expecting him to get better, so even when he wasn't full Acuna, it's like, well, he's gonna come on. Now he ain't coming. Like, the cavalry is not coming with Acuna.
41:15
They need some improvement offensively, but they can give the Phillies, uh, some hell there. And I like that Phillies team. It's more that I also like Atlanta's team and their willingness to push.
41:23
So I think we end up with, with three to four division races that are actually intriguing. Hmm.
41:30
Atlanta, by the way, eight games behind the Phillies currently as we are around the halfway mark of the, uh, Major League Baseball season. Three and a half games
41:38
clear of not being in the playoffs at all, it should be mentioned, in the playoff picture currently, the Atlanta Braves. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Um, okay.
41:47
You, for those who, who have not known you forever, um, which I have had the pleasure of knowing you forever, you s- first started by doing these unbelievable starting pitching guides, which were, were, were guys that were gonna be on the Major League roster.
42:01
They were pitchers in the minor leagues, you know, the farm system. It was just unbelievable. I was like, "Who is this kid? This is incredible." I want to know who that kid is too. Yeah. Isn't that funny?
42:12
I don't think I could do it again. Yeah. And if I say the same thing about certain things I did. That is so interesting. Um, but you, you, you're all about pitching. That is where you made your hay.
42:21
Right now, AL Cy Young, NL Cy Young, who you think is the best right now, who you think with your sort of projections of these pitchers, who do you think might be worth a bet?
42:33
You know, I think it's Glasnow and Skubal right now, um, that jump out to me as the guys I, I, I like as the favorites. You know, Crochet's been unbelievable. What kind of innings is he gonna face?
42:45
Is Houck gonna get any sort of- Yeah... innings, uh, hauled back there?
42:50
I don't think they should necessarily or have to because first off, those things don't work, and the Pirates were great to come out the other day and basically acknowledge that, that they kind of botched it with Roansy Contreras, who's not even in their org anymore.
43:01
And so they're not gonna do a hard shutdown with Skeans and Jared Jones. Um, could Skeans get into the Cy picture? I mean, he could, but I, I don't think I want to bet that.
43:10
I think it's, there's just too much of an uphill battle for him. And with Houck, he is 28 years old. Like, how much do you really have to baby him? So I think those guys are very much in the mix.
43:20
But if I'm betting right now, it's, it's really tough because those guys are kind of favorites. I still love Corbin Burnes. I can't ever get away from him.
43:28
I know his Ks aren't there right now, and when you're picking knits, you do have to kind of get in there and start to be harsh on guys, even when it's not the biggest issue.
43:36
But I think that's the, the knit that you could pick with Corbin Burnes.
43:39
But if he turns the Ks up, the wins could be through the roof, and we know that that doesn't mean that they're better just because they have more wins in the win-loss column.
43:46
But the voters, there are still contingents of voters that care about it.
43:49
Another thing is we don't know which voters will be voting on the Cy Young, so we don't know which ones are narrative driven based on things like that.
43:56
So I think some of those guys on the contenders, obviously you have to keep Wheeler in the mix. Even Nola, he can make a run too.
44:02
Think about the great second halves that we've had, though, uh, from guys that, where they've won the Cy Young.
44:08
I think what you really need to be looking at, not just the favorites, is looking for the guys that could make those pivotal moves. I would look at those Seattle pitchers, any of the three.
44:17
I don't know that I have a firm lean. Pick one of your favorites there and figure out who you think could make a big summer move. Start mapping out some of the expected schedule.
44:25
It'll change, it'll get disrupted, but what could set up for guys?
44:29
So I think you really want to get in and start to look and see who could create that crazy narrative down the second half stretch and not just go for the favorites. Yeah.
44:37
Luis Castillo, by the way, 30 to 1, speaking of Seattle pitchers. Uh, Logan- Love him... Logan Gilbert, fift- uh, 12 to 1, pardon me. 12 to 1. Where's Kirby? Uh, Kirby, I'm gonna have to look a little deeper on Kirby.
44:49
Because he's my favorite pitcher on that team. Kirby's, Kirby's 40 to 1. So there you go. You kind... I, I, I like one of the longer shots too.
44:56
I've actually been a Gilbert guy because I feel like he's always gotten a little bit, uh, shorter shrift compared to the other two.
45:01
But he's the one having the, the breakout right now, the, you know, the huge season Gilbert. So he's the short shot. I like Kirby or Castillo at their prices because they're just as good as he is. Yeah.
45:10
If it ends up being Tanner Houck, by the way, I'm gonna hate myself, because when I had the Guardians bet in March, April, and he just...
45:16
It was one of those r- rare games that month where the Guardians got completely s- stifled. Yep. He was unbelievable, and I actually said on the show, I'm like, "Wow, Tanner Houck."
45:24
And I believe the consensus was, "Oh, he won't get enough innings." But- Kind of a righty Chris Sale, but at 28, I don't think they need to hold him.
45:32
I think he can get 180 innings, and that's all you need to do it this year. Yeah. These days. 15 to 1 currently. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Take care, guys. Paul Skore, everybody. More NFL next.
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