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Jul 2, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 2, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 2, 2026
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46:07
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. Crack standing by for the Crack hour.
0:23
Kelly in studio as well. First, though, some tweets before we get to everybody. Uh, Ryan Hyatt, "Time to get out a pen and some paper. School is in session with Crack," here in moments.
0:33
Um, Chris Heath, the ticket writer at Cal-Neva, William Hill, told me this morning in Reno that some guy from Texas bought Caesars, [laughs] and it's only gonna get worse. Talking about Fertitta here.
0:44
[laughs] Her take, quote, "They should have asked a bunch of ticket writers how to run a sportsbook before owning one," unquote. So there you go. There's a, uh, lady on the scene take from, uh, Reno.
0:55
Uh, Johnny Brock, this is really, this is really nice, Johnny. He said, "I've been wanting to say I spend my days alone running my tree stump grinding company, which gets lonely.
1:05
Having you all to listen to, uh, is such a positive mental boost for me, as I almost consider you coworkers. Thank you from the bottom of my heart." Thank you, Johnny. That's such a nice tweet. We really appreciate that.
1:16
And by the way, uh, my buddy Chris Bruno, who, uh, excuse me, yeah, who, uh, is, uh, over there in Nassau, Nas- Nassau Co- County in New Jersey. Mm-hmm. That was t- tough to say. Yeah. Nassau County in New Jersey.
1:28
He was at the county clerk's office yesterday getting a permit for something, and he said he had a Numbers Game on as he walked in to, uh, the county clerk's office, and as he was in there, he kept hearing us on the Numbers Game, and he's like, "Oh my God, I gotta turn this off."
1:44
Uh, and then he realized he didn't have it on, and so he walked across, he was listening to the sound, he walked toward the sound across the county clerk's office, and it was a gentleman who was working there, and he said, "Do you, are you listening to a Numbers Game?"
1:56
[laughs] He goes, "I don't miss it every single day." Um, and the guy was so, was super sweet. I wish I knew your name, sir. Thank you so much. He said his favorite part of the show is reading the tweets- Wow.
2:08
There you go... which I was, uh, thrilled to hear about. He loves to hear people chiming in on the show. That's awesome. Uh, and then Del- And, and, and Johnny Brock, thank you for the tweet.
2:15
If, if it makes you feel any better, like, there's a bunch of jobs, Gil, I wish I could do for, like, one day. You know what I mean? Yeah. I would love to join, join Johnny Brock for one day.
2:24
I don't know what, what tree stump grinding company does, but that sounds like bunch- [laughs] Throw a bunch of tree stumps into a wood chipper. Let's, uh, yeah, that sounds like some fun for a day.
2:33
See, see what they do, Kelly, is they take the tree stump and then they grind it- Ah, gotcha... I think is the job. I think that's what they do. Yeah, I think that's what that is. And then you have mulch.
2:41
And fin- [laughs] And then finally, Del MindtheGap Radio, "How about all the regular tweeters getting together at Circa for a betting seminar with Bill Krackomberger? That would be awesome."
2:53
Well, I cannot promise you that, but I can promise you unscripted with the Krack Man, Bill Krackomberger. Let's go. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah.
3:11
[car revving] [beeping] Billy. How cool is that? What's happening? Yeah. I, I, and to be honest with you, I, I never, um, well I guess, uh, worked out there in the tree stumping business, but now I wanna do it.
3:21
[laughs] See, we can do that for a day, Bill. [laughs] Yeah. I wanna try it. Yeah. Yeah. I'd last about a minute. [laughs] Crack, you're like, "I'm out." Kelly, I think Kelly would give us a good couple hours.
3:32
Kelly would be out there for the, for the grind. Yeah, a couple hours. No pun int- Then I'd be out too... no pun intended. Yeah. So, um- Billy, what, what's happening, man? Gil, I, I see, um, what, your background there.
3:42
Oy vey. Where, where are you? How much money do you have? Ooh. Jesus, Mary, and Joseph. That's pretty nice. [laughs] Wow. No, that's beautiful. Uh, this is, this is, uh, San Francisco, California, sir. Yeah.
3:53
I- Uh, I always, I always say the smartest thing I ever did was get, was get an apartment here. Smartest thing I ever did in life. Good, good deal. Good deal. So Kelly says- Yeah...
4:01
uh, "As soon as there, you, that's your camera and your, when the red light'll come on, and that's when you, when you'll be on."
4:08
A lot of guys that l- follow the show, a lot of people that follow the show of course know The Honeymooners, and I think about the Honeymooners.
4:14
As soon as you said the red light's on, I remember Ralph Kramden on The Honeymooners doing a commercial, uh, that, that, that him and Ed saved all their money for, scammed and schemed to get money to do a commercial, and they're all pumped up they're gonna go on live TV selling this, uh, household gadget, handy utensil, and he says, "As soon as the right li- the red light's on, you're on."
4:33
[laughs] And then of course the red light comes on, and Ralph totally freezes. [laughs] And that's when I've seen the red light. I've never seen these r- are these red lights on every week?
4:41
[laughs] No, it's a, it's, it's a fair question, Bill, because [laughs] no, they're not, okay? Oh. Most of the time they are, though. Okay. Most of the time. But seeing the red light made me think of Ralph Kramden.
4:51
He just froze, and Ed was trying to, Ed Norton trying to do a com- the commercial by himself, and he just said, "How am I now, how am I now, how am I now?"
4:58
And, you know, and I'd just seen that red light, and it just made me, um, think of that. But, um, so guys, World Series of Poker this week is, uh, the main event starts this weekend.
5:07
So John and I have been doing our podcast from the World Series. They gave us an unbelievable studio background and really cool, uh, they, they, they did some great, great work for us.
5:17
So now yesterday I had a, we had a, we did, literally did three different shows, which I nor- normally just do my one hour. So I think we did two 40-minute shows and then a hour show.
5:29
The first show was with Jamie Gold, who was the World Series of Poker champion 20 years ago. Yeah. Um, Jeff Naidu came in for the next hour, and then Alan Boston. So I had three different people do three different shows.
5:41
Let me tell you, they're unique, uh, great shows. Let me tell you, that Jamie Gold show that I did, I never met him, and I didn't even know he knew me.
5:50
Like I, he, he, as soon as I came on, he talked about things about, like, me from the, from the last dec- He, he, he wa- he followed a lot of my things years a- for years, and I didn't know he was a sports bettor. So-
6:02
I got to meet Jamie Gold, I got to talk to him about different things. He was so revealing, and he is so, um, he- he's one of those, those people that take a lot of heat. Mm-hmm.
6:12
Because there was a, a, a controversy back when he won the World Series of Poker. I think he won $12 million.
6:19
He was supposed to give 6 million of that, supposedly, to a backer, and there was some kind of a lawsuit, this and that, and, uh, he talked about that.
6:29
He talked about not owing money to anyone, how he now, you know, the, anything is, um... He, he said that people said he cheated. He said, "The WSOP has been my sponsor for file after the fir- five years.
6:43
If I cheated, do you think they're gonna have me be my sponsor?" Like, he-- It's a great interview. It'll be out by the weekend. Then you had Jeff Naidu, who I really like that mafia genre space.
6:56
When I was younger, I always watched the A&E Network. They had these, uh, Bill Curtis mafia documentaries, which I thought he was a great voice for mob stuff. That was the only one, o- only choice you had.
7:08
Then YouTube came about, and you had some of these people that talked in, in the, in the mob space. And, um, also Jeff does a great job in the sports betting scandal space. Yes. He knows more things- Mm-hmm, yeah...
7:21
like he know. Uh, he was on the show here with us. Yes, he was. He is more in-depth and, uh, so I had him on yesterday. Um, and, uh, I, I, I just thought there were just some unique shows.
7:32
They'll all be up, and Alan Boston Q&A, they'll all be up by, by, by the weekend. But Jeff is getting out of the, of the mob space, and I kinda wondered why.
7:42
He's got a, you know, hundreds of thousands of, of subscribers, gets lots of views, makes, makes good money. Um, and he just said, "I'm quitting the show." And he's going back to Barstool, and he's having a show.
7:54
Uh, he, he worked with Portnoy at Barstool. Portnoy, I guess, hired him back to do another show. Oh, I see. But he could've kept both, but he chose not to. He feels he's, he has done his job there.
8:04
Some of the greatest shows because he's not one of the-- There's a lot of people that are in the space that talk things, um, Michael Franzese, um, Sammy the Bull, Sammy, Sammy the Bull, uh, Gravano, Mikey Scars, Jimmy Calandra, m- um, you can go on and on and on, Dominic Ciaccia.
8:23
You can-- One thing those guys have in common that Jeff does not have, they're all mafia rats. They ratted out their own family members. They ratted out their friends. They rat- they're all rats.
8:36
So, and they go on to, uh, they're doing tours. You got J- you know, they do, they do seminars. And um, Michael Franzese, he makes 20 million a year. I mean [laughs] just talking about, you know, things about the mob.
8:51
Now, granted, I personally like-- Like, Sammy the Bull did these, uh, thing called Our Thing. I think it was eight episodes, and it talked about his life in the mob, making and growing.
9:03
It was a documentary that he did, a verbal documentary. I thought it was fantastic. It was really good. I learned things I could never, ever learn, uh, never, we, we would never know about the mob.
9:13
But you don't wanna forget who these guys are because, uh, like, that's-- This guy in Florida, Dominic Ciaccia, I think his name is, I've watched a couple of his things. Um, he, uh, you know, he's a killer.
9:27
These guys are killers. Sammy the Bull's a killer. Dominic Ciaccia, stone-cold killer. John Alite, stone-cold killer. These guys are all also the mafia rats, but they kind of don't like Jeff.
9:39
They go back and forth with Jeff Naidu, some of these guys, and, you know, uh, you could see it in their eyes. You could see the black in their eyes. You go, "No, just stone-cold black eyes." I don't know.
9:50
Jeff just said he got out of the space, but like Jeff said, he can't walk around the San Gennaro Feast in New York anymore. He said someone will s- probably say something to him, and it could be- Wow...
10:00
it could be worse. Now, the Borgata in Atlantic City, he has been told some things down in, in Borgata in Atlantic City when he was playing poker.
10:09
Not so much Las Vegas 'cause I said, "Jeff, we got to sit with our backs to the wall here? I mean, you know, I don't know who's coming in here." [laughs] You know?
10:15
He said not, not, not so much here, but okay, he, he's talking about, you know... Think about the people that are threatening him, uh, you know, or, or, or subtle threats.
10:25
Uh, they're, they're, they're mafia guys who have killed many people. Even though they have a nice little social media space now, you can't help be who you are. You're still that killer.
10:35
Sammy the Bull a- admitted to killing 19 people. I mean, y- y- if you're killing that many people, y- you don't have no fear of things at all, so even though you're out of jail now and everything.
10:45
So, um, I thought it was really cool that, um, that, that he, he was very open. That was a great show. I think it's one of my- Wow...
10:53
one of my best shows I ever did, I think was yesterday with, um, with, with Jeff, and I let him talk 90% of the time 'cause you can always hear me.
11:03
You gotta let-- When you have a guest in, never-- One thing you don't wanna do, you don't wanna let the gu- guest talk. You gotta let him talk. He's the reason why you're- Yeah.
11:12
So I let him talk, and he talked about a whole plethora of things, Portnoy, and, and Barstool, and dif- and, uh, the World Series, and, um, really cool. Well,
11:22
good for you, Bill, 'cause that, that's exactly how you should handle that. And, and I will sort of echo what you were saying earlier.
11:27
When Jeff was on with you and I on A Numbers Game, he was spectacular, talking about the NBA betting scandal.
11:34
Um, it was great, and so whatever the other stuff is going on, maybe he just needs to, uh, move along for his own peace, but I always, uh, will appreciate his appearance on our show with us.
11:45
Uh, by the way, the name of that podcast, Wise Cracks with Bill and John Orlando. Check it out. More with Crack on the other side. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:56
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13:11
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13:28
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13:40
It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin back, uh, in Las Vegas. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Dan Piccirillo, hope I'm saying that all right, uh, Dan, Evil Genius HK.
13:50
He says, "I'm sorry that Benedict Bidlin didn't get his wish of a draw on regulation last night." I was right there with you, Kelly. I was right there. Uh, I didn't even have the bet.
13:59
You know, uh, Gil, if you remember yesterday, I just wanted, I wanted American soccer fans to get, uh, just make sure our, our, our expectations didn't get way out of whack like they usually do.
14:09
A- and you know, I, it, it, it wasn't great, it wasn't great with the red card yesterday, but I think some expectations should be reset a- and proper going forward, uh, i- in this tournament.
14:20
He adds, Dan Piccirillo does, "I was just, uh, I was calling FIFA some very unflattering names in my basement," he said. Yeah.
14:26
Uh, Shrek McPhee, "It was an awful tackle, but completely accidental, uh, as Flo wasn't even looking. The issue is now yellow card being given and upgraded to red via VAR. Straight red from VAR is a disgrace.
14:36
Yes, everyone knows Messi didn't get a card. Flo ain't Messi, LOL." Mm-hmm. Anthony Difilippis, "My next trip to Vegas, if I don't get to have a beer and watch some football with Kelly, did I even have a good trip?"
14:47
Good question. Football or foot- Trip Tepper-... or football? Which football? Uh, I think he means American- Okay... 'cause I'm... Well, I don't know. Maybe he doesn't.
14:53
Maybe he means a ga- a Norway match in the World Cup. I don't know. Uh, uh, Gil, I would think if these guys could see our text messages during these matches, they would be very entertained by our soccer breakdowns.
15:02
[laughs] Trip Tepper, "A numbers game investigation has revealed that we finally identified Super Jerk. He was the ref in the USA-Bosnia match."
15:10
And Ryan Hyatt, "Excellent job on a numbers game this morning by Gil and Kelly detailing some of the obstacles soccer faces with casual American fans. Well done. Hope folks can get the audio here in a bit."
15:21
Well, they will on the, uh, VSiN app for sure. Uh, Dallin Cuff is kind enough not only to join us whenever he joins us, but we just learned he's joining us while on vacation in- Yeah...
15:30
Charleston, South Carolina, going o- uh, going extra time with us. We really appreciate it, Dallin. Thanks for joining us. Always, boys. Kelly, bro, can we dare to dream for a little bit? Can you not like- [laughs]...
15:42
d- that was your Debbie Downer, man. Like, let us dream. Let us feel it for a minute here. [laughs] I just... Dallin, I can't handle the depression when it sets in, you know? E- everybody gets so depressed, you know? Oh.
15:52
And it's just, just g- uh, let's just manage. Let's just manage expectations. But of course, of course I'm rooting for USA, Dallin, okay? Let's go. Let's go. Okay. Okay. All right, good. But- Good.
16:02
Thank you Well, well, let's start there. So the USA on the way to the round of 16 to play Belgium, everybody's saying Belgium very beatable for us, if I may use the word us.
16:13
Do you think that is the case, Dallin, and do you think that's where the magic carpet ride ends, though? Boys, there's about 340 million of us that can say us, right? When they got the USA, anybody that's here- Right...
16:23
let's go. We're on, you're on board. That's us. Um, yes, they can beat Belgium. Um, uh, remember, um, bear in mind, these two teams did play back in March in a pretty dead Atlanta Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
16:34
Very different environment now. A different group of guys. This team was not the same. Uh, the team we saw first kicking off here against Paraguay we had never seen before.
16:42
We've now seen this team and this exact same lineup, who we ran out last night, play at a very, very high level. Conversely, Belgium right now is laboring through matches.
16:51
They were fortunate, to say the least, that Senegal made some just massive mistakes to, to give up the lead and then to lose it at the, at the death there on a really, on a tough call.
16:59
But, um, yes, this team is, this team is beatable. Um, we saw this US team play Senegal a couple weeks ago.
17:05
It was one of our, uh, second to last warm-up matches where Ricardo Pepi did start up top, which likely he will start up top, and Flo Gall- Galligan's, uh, place if they maintain the same, uh, shape and same system, which I think you should.
17:16
And Pepi really combined well in that game. Him and Pulisk in particular were great on one of the goals they scored early in that match. Like, he, he's, he's a different player than Flo.
17:23
Flo has showed that he's a pretty elite scorer, and we talked about it before, uh, the tournament kicked off.
17:28
My, one of my favorite plays in the future was Galligan to be the leading scorer for the US team because we've seen what he'd done at Monaco in the last couple years.
17:35
He played at Arsenal, couldn't quite become a Arsenal guy a couple years ago, still was young, but he was having a great tournament, and now he will not be playing in the next match, uh, unjustly so.
17:44
I'm sure we'll get to that. But this team is capable of beating Belgium. My brother said last night, "They're gonna be really interesting to be a home dog."
17:49
I said, "I don't think they're gonna be a home dog," and lo and behold, they are, they are not. I mean, whether it's by two advance, they are the, the favorite slightly, or two on the three-way market.
17:57
I think that's partially because the home field advantage they will ha- will have. Seattle, remember, I b- I was there in that Australia game, guys. That place is insane, that environment.
18:06
The players had said that before, and people that had seen soccer matches all over the world said that might have been one of the best environments they'd ever seen. So that is, that's a factor.
18:13
And the fact that Belgium's just not, has not played that well. So I think we've looked better. We are at home. We are confident. Graham without a striker.
18:19
This is a very winnable game, and the, and the country should expect to see their team win. And if they don't, that's heartbreaking, but it's not we're gonna roll out there and hope we win like we played Belgium in 2014.
18:29
We hope to hang in that game. It took Tim Howard 14 saves. This is not that scenario
18:33
Well, we said before the tournament, or Paul Carr more specifically on this show said, "Getting to the round of 16 should be viewed as par." Now he views it- Mm-hmm... as getting on the green on a par five and two.
18:43
That's where we are right now. But this has been adjusted in the betting market. To reach the quarters now, we are a slight favorite, minus 120. So, uh, we look forward to that match.
18:51
Let, let's just get to what you alluded to right there, Dallin. So I think, 'cause I think you tipped your hand there.
18:57
Unjust red card, and then Belgium-Senegal, correct call to, uh, elicit the penalty kick at the end there? Let's go with the red card first. That's an egregious red.
19:07
By the laws of the game and how it's defined, there are words like brutality, serious foul play, attempt to injure, violent conduct. None of that was there. In, in all honesty, the challenge came from Flo's back.
19:18
Like, he can't even see what's happening there, and as he's trying to fight, yes, the defender gets around him, his leg, he's off balance. His foot has to come down somewhere, okay?
19:26
He's off balance, the guy's coming from behind him. He doesn't even see him, and then he gets red carded for it. This is where VAR is flawed.
19:33
If you see it in slow-mo and you break it down, you create something out of nothing. That is, if anybody's played the game, that was a kind of an inoculus, innocuous challenge in the fact that he didn't try to do it.
19:42
If you wanna give him a yellow for it, okay, I'll give you that. A straight red, and I think one of your tweet, your tweets said, I mean, it's ludicrous. It was an absurd final call.
19:51
And when you look at not just the Messi play, okay? I know it's the easiest one to draw the comparison and FIFA fixes things for Messi.
19:56
He made a challenge, and when I watched that game live, I watched that live, I go, "Ooh, that's not good." And I couldn't believe he didn't even get a yellow. I thought he should.
20:02
I mean, they, I thought they were gonna review it. They didn't do anything. And, uh, you could say it's 'cause Messi, but he, the difference is, guys, is he was running to make a challenge, and a late one at that.
20:10
He put his heel up and raked down the guy's ass to foot. Similar to Balogun, but his was intending to make a tackle. There are other still shots.
20:18
You can see Pulisic in that first game against Paraguay took a tackle very similar. Again, an intention to make that tackle. We saw one in the Australia game against us, the intention to make that tackle.
20:28
You're not necessarily supposed to judge intent, but when you can't even see the guy, that has to factor into how you assess the play. I think it was just a joke.
20:35
And as soon as they walk over to that VAR, and this will go to the port, Belgium-Senegal thing, we've seen it one time in this tournament where a ref walked over, the VAR recommended it, he walked back and said, "No, I'm sticking by my decision."
20:47
They still have the power to do this. In some countries- Yeah... around the world, particularly Germany, Germany, they will, their refs will say, "No, I disagree." In England, it's almost a fait accompli.
20:55
If they walk over there, it's whatever the VAR said, and it's crazy to me. You still have the ability to interpret it. It's somebody's interpretation against yours, and you are the center official.
21:03
In the Belgium-Senegal game, if that's played live and they don't review it, I got no problem with it.
21:08
Soon as they go to review it, though, and soon as they s- you start to watch it in slow-mo, you then will make the argument.
21:13
If that player does not make that challenge at that moment, is he taking away an opportunity for somebody to get the ball on the, foot on the ball and score a goal? Okay, you could say that's the case.
21:23
It was very, very little contact, but if you take that player out, he probably gets a shot and maybe he scores. So shou- uh, should there be a penalty given? You can make that argument.
21:30
I have no problem if they do not review it and they just keep on playing. But soon as they go to review, as soon as that referee walks over there, you know the outcome, you know what it's gonna be.
21:39
We were hard done yesterday. I think Senegal was hard done, but I understand the process.
21:43
It's just, it's, it, the red card piece of it is, is, is damning because that obviously takes him out of the next match and 30 minutes of that game. The penalty for what he was doing does not fit the crime.
21:53
You could argue the same thing for Senegal, but once they walk over to that monitor, it seems to be a done deal. Well said. Thanks for putting this, uh, putting that in a context for us.
22:03
Um, I was saying earlier the, uh, the, the Belgium-Senegal one, it goes, the American sports fan's mind, it goes from, like, a 10% chance of, of scoring a goal to an 85% chance, right? And that's what we- Mm-hmm...
22:15
have trouble with, I think, uh, in this country. Tripleheader today, Dallin. We have, uh, about 90 seconds. Spain-Austria, Portugal-Croatia, Switzerland-Algeria. What are your thoughts or bets on all three?
22:26
Yeah, I like Croatia to advance, guys. I think they're, I think the, the value on Portugal, we haven't seen it. And I've talked to you guys about Portugal.
22:32
I think they're misusing, I think Roberto Martinez is doing his team a disservice by the way they're playing. Ronaldo, how they are playing, they look disjointed. Yes, Uzbekistan, you've scored five goals. I do not care.
22:40
Croatia has the same motor and engine of guys in Luka Modric and others, Perisic, that have been on that 2018 World Cup final team. They do not quit. They do not give up. Uh, I like them to advance.
22:50
If you wanna go a little bit more light, I mean, that's around plus 230. I think double the chances are very good, too.
22:55
Tie or draw on 90, I think I could easily see this thing go into extra time and them trying to outlast Portugal. And if they get that draw on 90, you get paid out. That's around even money. I like that.
23:04
I, I think in the Austria-Spain game, I think you're gonna see an Austria team play kind of like they did against Argentina. They are gonna make this thing compact, tough. They are, they are organized defensively.
23:13
Um, they went up and down with Algeria. That's not how they're gonna play in this game, kind of 'cause they had to, or once they went down, they felt they had to.
23:18
I think you're gonna see a situation where they're gonna hunker down a little bit. I like the under in that, um, although the, the money is the, uh, the, uh, money is on the over. I like the under in that match.
23:27
I think Spain has struggled to show us breaking down a team that's gonna be very defensively, um, solid and kind of sit behind the ball. I think that's what you see in the Austria match.
23:35
So those are my, my couple plays for the day. I appreciate it. And, uh, steering clear of the Switzerland-Algeria match at night. Dallin, enjoy Charleston, man. Thank you so much for joining us.
23:45
If we had known we were on vacation, we wouldn't have bothered you. Thank you. Ah. Well, I could always say, "No, I wanna talk to you guys. I'll see you next week." [laughs] Love it, Dallin. I appreciate it.
23:54
We'll talk to you next week then, wherever Dallin might be. Thank you. Dallin Cuff, by the way, from Turner Sports. You can follow him on Twitter at Dallin, D-A-L-L-I-N C-U-F-F, Dallin Cuff.
24:03
Um, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Jaylen Brown in depth next on A Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:10
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25:06
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now to lock in two years of VSiN Pro for just $299. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. All right, a little tennis update. We're up a set in the $5 dog Anna Blinkova-Marta Kostyuk match. Up a set.
25:24
Let's go. Nice. Um, again, our future on Iga got through to round three. Men's side, uh, have a chance to serve for the match with Lorenzo Sonego moments from now.
25:34
Zachary Svajda up a break in the fourth set trying to force a fifth set, so, so far so good. Of course, three matches. Oh, by the way, one other match has begun. Uh, the Arthur Fils-Matteo Berrettini match has begun.
25:48
They're on serve early in the, uh, first set. Still to come, Kamila Rakumova on the women's side, and, um, what was the remaining one on the, uh- Grigor. Grigor. Thank you, Kelly Grigor Grigor.
25:59
Uh, we get tweets feeding the book. Ray @wreakinghavok, "The ref on the field gave nothing. Egregious error. The ref had an agenda."
26:07
Uh, Peter Watry, "Respect to all Americans who are showing interest and passion for our sport, world football. Balogun was born in the US accidentally," quote, unquote, he says- [laughs]...
26:16
"when his pregnant mother was visiting New York City from London. They will now have to win with American players and they can do it." Uh, he's American. Come on.
26:23
Uh, an Eagle Marine, "Gil, I am with you 100% on the soccer calls. Crimes just do not fit those punishments.
26:30
Um, as an SEC alum, hard to cast stones at soccer though when we have somehow allowed targeting to do what it has done to college football. We have kids missing bowl games over what used to be great hits."
26:41
Yeah, college football definitely has changed with that. And then as a nice segue into our discussion about Jaylen Brown, Kelly, this is from, uh, Nick, Real Nicks.
26:49
"Breaking news," he says, "Sixers traded Paul George for Jaylen Brown. As a Sixers fan, I needed to read this headline 100 times to make it sink in. Still don't believe it.
26:58
Gansey's already Exec of the Year, but how is Boston four to one to win the East and Philly eight to one?" For those who missed it, we should probably spell out the trade. Mm.
27:07
Um, as, you know, on the heels of Giannis going to the Heat, uh, LaMelo Ball going to the T-Wolves, now it's Jaylen Brown traded to the Sixers.
27:15
Sixers sending Paul George, the at this point peripatetic Paul George, two first round picks, 2028 and 2031, two second round picks, 2028, 2030, to Boston to complete the deal.
27:26
Um, Brown leaves Boston as a five-time All-Star as well as the 2024 Eastern Conference finals and NBA finals MVP, helping Boston win its 18th championship.
27:36
Brown is gonna turn 30 in October coming off a career season where he finished sixth in MVP voting, was a second team All-NBA selection while leading the Celtics to a 56-win season.
27:47
Remember, much of that without j- uh, Jayson, uh, Tatum. He averaged 28.7 points a game, 6.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists per game, all matching or exceeding his prior career highs.
28:00
Uh, Kelly earlier on the show made the, uh, the outlandish remark that his father invented the question mark. [laughs] No, that, that, that, uh, this trade was as surprising as the Luka trade.
28:10
I, I think you, I, I don't agree with that. I mean, I think the Luka trade was just- I didn't go that far. I said almost. I said almost. Oh, almost. Okay. My bad. I misquoted you.
28:18
Uh, it, it's, the, the Luka thing was like, yeah, I don't, I, people thought I was j- I was falling for a prank when I sent him the tweet, right? Yeah. Drew was like, "Ah, they got Gil," right?
28:28
This one you knew was coming after the, uh, the attempts to trade him in, in the Giannis deal. Um, it's pretty interesting to me.
28:35
I'll let you chime in on that specific question on Twitter about, "Hey, look, Boston's four to one and Philly's eight to one."
28:41
Um, but I, uh, I like a lot of the post-trade commentary here, which sort of, uh, it makes me feel better about how I feel about Jaylen Brown, which is basketball's a funny sport, right?
28:51
Again, what's the example I always use? You can't put Wilt, Magic, Bird, MJ, and Oscar Robertson on the same team and think you're gonna score 300 points. It just doesn't work, right?
29:02
There's an optimal efficiency to five guys on the court. And I don't know how much better Jaylen Brown makes the people around him. Mm-hmm.
29:11
Um, so I'm not, like, I'm not, like, super convinced this is an amazing trade for the Sixers. I will, I will grant you this though, Kelly.
29:19
I was surprised that of all the teams they went with, the Celtics were so okay with going with this- Yeah... obviously the best deal they got, that they traded him to a, you know, a, a historical conference rival. Yeah.
29:34
Pretty amazing. I, but it's part, it's part of the shock factor, and it, it's part of, uh, you know, from the 76ers side.
29:40
The Paul George contract, uh, like, nobody thought they were ever gonna be able to get back off that thing. Once that was, once they brought him in and it was, oh, God, all of a sudden this is a disaster.
29:51
He gets suspended last year. Yes, he came back and played well, uh, but d- just the opportunity to get off that contract, I thought one of the mo- more, i- it's, y- you just went through all the trade details.
30:02
Uh, Bobby Marks from ESPN I thought, uh, made a great note about this.
30:06
For the 76ers just to get off of the Paul George contract would've cost them a first round pick, uh, al- anyways, just to get, uh, just to get him off of the team.
30:16
So really what they gave up for Jaylen Brown, take one more first round pick away, because anybody that they were gonna send Paul George to, they were gonna have to include a first round pick just for him.
30:26
So it's even really less than that. Um, it's, uh, it's wild, Gil. It's wi... A- and you sa- you said it, and we were texting about this immediately.
30:34
Yeah, for it to be the Sixers, like, maybe this doesn't, this stuff doesn't matter. We don't think about it or talk about it as much as we did 30 years ago, 20 years ago, right?
30:44
But still, it's an Eastern Conference rival that you haveHave to think is going to be around a major market Eastern Conference rival that you have to think is gonna be around, which is why I said in that first segment, like, this is the best they could do.
30:57
This is cl- pretty obvious- Yeah. Clearly... the best they could do. Because you would, you would love to have shipped him out west and not had to worry about this.
31:05
And it, it does, it br- it immediately brought up a lot of questions for me of, man, where are, where were all these other teams at if this is all that was being asked for?
31:15
So that, that's why I said I think this is really how not just Boston is view, w- is, was viewing Jaylen Brown by the end of it.
31:23
And yes, yes, I think there is a lot that was going on behind the scenes that we're not gonna know about for the, for a very long time, uh, with relationships in that building.
31:33
But not only how just J- J- uh, Jaylen Brown was viewed by the Celtics, but really how he was viewed by the re- uh, by the majority of the rest of the NBA. Yeah.
31:43
It's, you know, uh, and again, it's, Ben Fox, our buddy, um, tweeted this out. If you're wondering what were the Sixers in the offshore, you know, not offshore, but prediction markets.
31:56
Uh, I don't know if any offshores had this up, but in prediction markets, what were the Sixers?
31:59
The Sixers were 100 to one, uh, on the DraftKings sports prediction market anyway, to be Jaylen Brown's next team at the time of the trade. The longest odds for any team listed. Incredible.
32:12
That's how sort of surprising this was. Now remember, Detroit and Cleveland, also Eastern Conference playoff, you know, perennial teams at this point we can say about those two- Mm-hmm...
32:22
I guess, um, they were much shorter odds.
32:25
I, for some reason, Kelly, and this ha- this has nothing to do with anything but, like, abstract historical rivalries in the NBA, I would not have been nearly as surprised if he had gone to Detroit or Cleveland.
32:35
I don't know what those teams would've been able to ship. Oh, I agree. Uh, yeah. But, but what you said is correct, and I think that, that this was clearly the best offer they got.
32:43
And what it really does, I think, indicate is that if you are a really, really good NBA player, maybe even a great NBA player, but you are not a superstar elite NBA player, right?
32:56
In other words, you're, you're below the, you know, the Jokic line. The, the- Sure, you're not a first team All-Teamer... Jokic- Yeah, yeah, yeah... Wembanyama, right. You're below that group.
33:09
These teams don't like it if your salary isn't commensurate with that, right? You, you're- If you're getting paid- Yep... yeah, th- then it, it doesn't work. And so this will be interesting.
33:19
I mean, let's, let's get to the point, though, of the question, which is Boston four to one to win the East. First of all, the Knicks are the short shot at plus 320. Yeah.
33:25
Boston's $4 plus 425, and then it's the Sixers now at plus 750. If you're wondering where Giannis and the Heat fa- fall, they fall sixth.
33:33
Put the Pistons in there, put Kawhi's Raptors in there, and then Giannis and the Heat. Do you agree with that pecking order?
33:40
[smacks lips] Um, no, I do not, but I think we're still in a wait and see w- uh, there's a long off season to go.
33:48
I, I do think there is a possibility, uh, that the Cel- the Celtics are not done, that this is, you know, they did get two first round picks in return.
33:56
Is this, is, was this always part of the plan to turn this into something more? Um, Miami Heat, right? We expect them to keep adding along the way. Are the Pacers gonna do anything or the Cavs?
34:07
You know, where does LeBron James add, uh, end up? For right now, I guess, Gil, because the books are betting that the Celtics are going to do something more or they're gonna be able to recreate this in the aggregate.
34:19
And the one that you are gonna hear a lot about, this is another one that's kinda, it's kinda frustrating me about this move.
34:25
One you've heard, uh, uh, uh, Brian Windhorst brought it up on the Hoop Collective about things coming out of the Celtics front office.
34:32
And if you do lo- look at some of the advanced stats from last season, uh, i- is that simply Derrick White had a better season, was more important to Celtics winning than Jaylen Brown. So I don't know.
34:44
Maybe the odds makers believe in that, and that is br- why the Celtics are as short as they are. Yeah. If, again, this is, you know, again, for the analytics crowd.
34:53
If you look at things like plus minus, Jaylen Brown doesn't leap off the page- He does not... on plus minus. Nope.
34:59
Is a, uh, is a strange little stat that can have other out, out, oh, you know, outside factors, who you're on the court with, that kind of thing. But that's an interesting one that people lean on as well.
35:08
Um, let's talk some NFL. Week one quarterback start- [upbeat music]
35:24
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Well, I got good news and I got bad news on the tennis. Uh, two and O to start the day after a, uh,
35:36
after a, a, a first three days of Wimbledon that were not nearly as great as our grass court season has gone. But a two and O to start the day. The $5 dog ain't gonna get home.
35:46
Anna Blinkova losing in the third set to Marta Kostyuk 5-1, so that is not looking good. On the good- Ugh... on the good news side, Matteo Berrettini up two sets to none against Arthur Fils as a $2 dog.
35:58
We've already hit Svajda at plus 150 and Sonego at plus 103. So things looking great on the men's side with Grigor Dimitrov still to come.
36:07
Not so great on the ladies' side, but it was a $5 dog play, so, um, we gave it a run. Yep. Uh, we get tweets beating the book. Bobby Getty's, "Been said before, got, but gotta say it again. Imagine not liking sports."
36:21
It's so true, man. Team USA, all these great World Cup soccer matches that are ending in PKs, um, tennis, baseball, football on the horizon. Imagine not liking sports. It's so true.
36:35
Uh, Icegoon, uh, "With Gil not in the studio, does that mean Kelly and Crack will be in the studio at the same time?" Yes.
36:42
Uh, "If so, what is the over under on how long it takes for a UFC-like battle between the two of them?" I say before the end of segment one. Who's the betting favorite in that, [laughs] in that battle?
36:52
Uh- No, yeah Long time ago I, I mean, I mean s- look, some newer listeners might, might have missed this, Gil, but I used to very much enjoy our times at The D on Thursdays when me, you, and Crack would all be at the table together.
37:04
And I f- you know, Circa Studio doesn't allow for the same setup, so, uh, you know, I, I'm excited. I'm excited to be in studio with Crack. Do you know I don't even remember that? Yeah.
37:14
It's like it, it's like, yeah, it's so true. 'Cause remember we'd- Um-... sit like we weren't opposite each other, right? You were like to my left. Right. You know?
37:20
And then we'd bring Crack in, and all three of us would sit around the table. Fred Leonards, "My mom took me to the theater to see White Men Can't Jump back in the day. We left very soon thereafter.
37:30
Mom wasn't too keen on the first 10 minutes of the film. Great movie, though." What was the first 10 minutes? I don't remember. I honestly don't remember. What happened? I don't remember the opening scene.
37:39
[laughs] Mom was like, "We gotta get outta here." Oh, man. Um, Brendan, "I didn't take any divisional monthlies." You said, "Who else did you take in the divisional monthlies?"
37:47
I didn't take any of the divisional monthlies, uh, in baseball. Oh, Johnny Brock chiming in on Aaron Bender's tweet from earlier.
37:54
Aaron Bender was wondering, uh, "If you get a tip on a bet from a friend but don't play it, do you root for the bet to win or lose?" And I said, "No, if it's a friend who's giving it to me, I root for it."
38:03
But Johnny Brock is correct. He says, "If said friend is super cocky about his betting ability, I will absolutely root for it to lose. Some people need to be humble." Eh. True. Yeah, that, that's a good point, yep. Yeah.
38:18
And Bobby Getty says, "Oh, by the way, I take back my tweet from last week about not wanting Giannis for Jaylen. Can we still make that happen?" You know, Kelly and I were talking a little bit about this off air.
38:29
Right, yeah. Which is part, part of the aside of the Jaylen Brown trade is if you're Milwaukee ownership and you decided, "You know what?
38:37
In the end, we don't wanna deal with this whole thing," this is, this was my speculation where I was like, "Hey, Jaylen Brown a year from now could be like, 'I want outta here.' I don't wanna deal with that." Mm-hmm.
38:46
He just dealt with Giannis wanting out. He just dealt, uh, what's the other, um, the other sport that he, he's an owner in that he also had to deal with somebody who wanted out?
38:56
So he didn't wanna deal with that with Jaylen Brown. He wanted to go with the sure thing, all the draft picks, start new.
39:02
He's gotta be secretly, like, sorta smiling, Milwaukee ownership does as collective, smiling to themselves of, of like, "Yeah, and as it turns out, the rest of the league wasn't really that anxious to grab him- Yeah...
39:15
for his salary." So, uh, they must feel great about that. It was one of the more, uh, Jimmy Haslam for the Browns, right? Um- Jimmy Haslam So the, uh- Oh, Myles Garrett. Myles Garrett- Right, right...
39:23
is who I'm thinking of. Yes, thank you.
39:25
You know, it is interesting 'cause it was, I, I think that was w- where I was a l- part of my confusion of working through all this yesterday was, man, these reports during the Giannis, you know, sweepstakes at the end really made it sound like Boston was just a c- a piece or two away, and, and Milwaukee just wanted some of their kinda younger guys thrown in, and they didn't wanna commit to that.
39:48
So yeah, Gil, I, I, I think there might be a big sigh of relief 'cause I, I, maybe Milwaukee was the only, about the only other team that was kinda high on Jaylen Brown.
39:57
And, uh, yeah, they, they, they might've saved themselves there. Who knows? Guess we'll find out. Yeah.
40:02
Uh, here are the best bets, by the way, beyond the, uh, tennis today, um, which we'll review here momentarily 'cause again, the only tennis still to go is Grigor Dimitrov. Um, but Iga to win Wimbledon 10 to 1.
40:14
In case you missed it, Iga was, uh, double parked outside, or she had a plane to catch. She dispatched Karolína Plíšková, who I believe Drew had at 125 to 1 to win the tournament. Yeah, some triple digits.
40:24
Uh, Iga said, I- Iga said, "Yeah, g- get outta my way."
40:28
But Iga's gotta take on Alex Eala in the third round, but Iga to win Wimbledon at 10 to 1, uh, when it drifted after she lost to Emma Navarro at Bad Homburg, uh, a week before.
40:39
And the Red Sox, most wins in July, 80 to 1. By the way, let the record show again that the Chicago Cubs finished four wins behind the Miami Marlins at 16 and 10 last month.
40:49
People were giving me a lot of incoming on the pick of the Cubs last, uh, month.
40:54
If it weren't for the Marlins, man, we were in play the whole time, but the Marlins set a 15-month record in Major League Baseball, at least as long as we've been tracking these markets, for the best record in any month in the last two and a half years, 20 and six.
41:09
Unbelievable. Uh, that was also the most- Kelly, what do you got?... the most wins the Marlins have ever had in any month in the history of their franchise. That was pretty incredible.
41:17
And zero, and it deserves repeating, zero people had a ticket on it, which is one thing at Circa, which is incredible to think about at William Hill Caesars with all of their brick-and-mortar shops.
41:27
Yeah, totally, totally. Uh, John Deere Classic underway. Birdie Fest, we talked about it yesterday, updated the leaderboard. Lucas Glover seven under through 13 has a lead.
41:37
I do have some first-round leader plays going today if anybody wants to get involved. These guys, none of them have teed off yet. I played actually everybody a little bit later, uh, in the day.
41:46
Keith Mitchell 35 to 1, Tom Kim 40 to 1, Aldrick Potgieter 60 to 1, A.J. Jewort 90 to 1.
41:53
Um, and if you're wondering, "Wow, Kelly, you usually don't have that many first-round leader bets," well, these were all guys I kinda made bets on full tournament, and they just happened to be pretty quality first-round guys.
42:02
So figured I'd throw 'em in, Gil, you know? Uh- Okay... so those are first-round leaders. I have nothing soccer today. Just to review, uh, NFL bets, we talked a little bit about yesterday.
42:14
Panthers under seven and a half wins I added, and then the, to go along with Browns under six and a half wins and Bills to win the AFC East. Those are all in the VSIN NFL betting guide.
42:25
I haven't heard you mention it all show. I haven't mentioned it all show. Any soccer that you're looking at today?
42:31
I think I'm, think I'm just rolling with my, I got a Portugal future still left for them to make the quarter. So I think I'm just gonna be rooting that on.
42:37
Other than that, I think, I don't think I'm betting any soccer today looking at this board. Yeah, Danny was just asking me, Danny Higgins was just, uh, asking me off-air if I was. It's Spain, Austria.
42:47
It's Portugal, Croatia. It's Switzerland, Algeria. Um, the draws have been so profitable, especially in the group stage. There's been some heartbreak here in the round of 32.
42:57
Yesterday, the most miracle draw of all of them on the Belgium-Senegal game. Yeah. Um, I kind of am taking that as a sign that the train might be slowing down a little bit, so I don't have anything now.
43:11
If I do, I might bet a draw on my own a little later on Bro, think about how- I, you know- Think about the combo luck me and you had on that game. You had... 'Cause you had the draw- Oof... to get those goals.
43:23
I, I, the, I had Belgium to make the quarterfinals, and then I also have that penalty kick prop over. So that was- [laughs] Yeah. Oh... I need both the goals for them to- That's incredible...
43:33
right, to draw, then get to extra time, then advance on a penalty. It was incredibly lucky.
43:39
The, the difference between the group stage and the round of 32 on the, on the draw strategy has been that in the group stage, it has the, the, a lot of those draws just coasted home. Mm. Right?
43:49
And you were like, even if you were down, you know, if a team was up, uh, a goal, you never had any lack of confidence that it was going to end up in a draw. And so we hit tons of those.
43:57
There was one day where you just hit 'em left and right, which was incredible. Um, in this round of 32, it feels like it's heartbreak against us or just ridiculous luck win for us.
44:09
So it doesn't, it doesn't have the same feel, even though we speculated that draws would probably be more likely in the round of 32- Yeah...
44:18
in the knockout stage, period, than it would be in the group stage, because the thinking is, oh, well, those players will know that they have 30 minutes of extra time to lean back on and may not press in the same way late in regulation.
44:32
That hasn't been the case. Like, there's just the, the late goals have just now happened at a much higher rate than they did in the group stage. So nothing for me.
44:41
Um, by the way, tomorrow's even, tomorrow's even more, um- I was just thinking the same thing, yep. Yeah. Just, I mean, uh- Egypt, Australia draw early in the morning, that sounds good, but- Yeah...
44:52
not the most exciting game to watch. I don't know. Colombia, Colombia-Ghana at night, I think I'll have the draw in that. I certainly went with Argentina and Cape Verde in the middle. That's for sure. Yeah.
45:01
Uh, Zach was on earlier.
45:02
He's on Victoria Golubic on the, uh, ladies' side as a dog against Jasmine Paolini, plus 139, and then tomorrow at Wimbledon, he's got himself a parlay, Barbora Krejcikova and, uh, Bartyková, or excuse me, versus Bartyková, and Roman Safiullin against Joao Fonseca.
45:20
So it's a Krejcikova, Safiullin money line parlay. Oh, actually, no, not a money line parlay. Krejcikova's the money line.
45:25
Safiullin is plus two and a half sets, so he just needs Safiullin to take one set from Joao to hit that parlay tomorrow from Zach.
45:33
Um, and then Dalencuf earlier today, speaking of the World Cup, Croatia to advance versus Portugal. Doesn't matter how they get through.
45:42
He just needs them to advance, plus 233, and then Austria, Spain under two and a half goals. Uh, he is sitting out the Algeria game tonight against Switzerland. Crack next. Doesn't matter that I'm in San Francisco.
45:56
Kelly's gonna be at the desk with Bill Krackenberger unscripted next on a Numbers Game at Beastin, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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