Search
Login
Sign Up
Jul 30, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 30, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | July 30, 2024
00:00
45:32
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good morning, everybody.
0:10
Trade deadline Tuesday here in downtown Las Vegas. Jared Smith in for Gil today and the rest of the week. Kelly Bidlin with us as well. Good morning, Kelly. How are you doing, sir? Doing well. Doing well.
0:21
Just looking for House of Dragon props for you. Well, we were- That was- So you, you guys are not privy. Sometimes I wish, sometimes I don't. So- We also keep screwing up the name of the show.
0:29
I, I was calling it House of Dragons for, like, a year and a half- Yeah, no... and that's not correct, right? H-O- House of the Dragon? T-D. Okay. H-O-T-D-G-O-T-D, right? Or G-O-T, Game of Thrones, House of the Dragon.
0:42
Yeah, so we were talking, um, we, we were talking a little bit of entertainment, uh, before we came on here today. I don't wanna go too much off the beaten path here, but let's just leave it at this.
0:52
If you're not a House of the Dragon fan, just, just turn off the screen right now because I don't want you to watch the show because it's, I think it's better than...
0:59
I, I honestly think at the end of the day, we will talk about this show, House of the Dragon, in more reverence than the original series, which I think got- Hot take, bro... significantly worse.
1:11
Uh, it, it, like, peaked season two, season three, and then got really bad towards the end. Whereas I think this show is gonna be, I hope- I hope you're right. Yeah... we're only on season two. I hope.
1:19
I think this show is gonna be more of a steady incline and not as much of a rollercoaster and then drop, it, towards the end of the seasons. I don't know when it's gonna, the show's gonna end. Maybe it will.
1:31
But I don't know, I'm really digging it. I'm, I'm, I'm digging the stories.
1:35
I'm digging the, uh, um, the, the, the last couple of episodes have been really good with these new dragons and I'm, uh, now, also, I'm a big TikTok guy.
1:43
I'm not, I don't post a whole lot, but I like watching the TikTok videos. I don't even have an account. And the recaps and the parodies and the memes- [laughs]... the day after the, the episode- Yeah, yeah, yeah...
1:55
airs, every, all the content creators go to work and it's, it really does add life. I do this with Marvel, too, where I'll watch the movie.
2:04
I just watched, uh, uh, Deadpool, and then half the fun is the next week, all of the content creators do the Easter eggs that you missed, and I'll watch hours of nerd stuff.
2:16
[laughs] It's the only time I'm not looking at sports, is when I'm looking at nerd videos. But I, I digress. Yeah, you go, you go from nerd to nerd fee. I go from nerd to nerfie.
2:26
Um, we had an okay night with the nerfie yesterday. The one I gave out here on the show lost, but we went, we [laughs] the other three I had, tweeted out one. That's how it works. Yep.
2:33
Uh, that's which is of course how it works. So we, we did go, we did go three to one on the night. I'm never gonna complain about that. Um, but baseball's in a weird spot right now. I, I did give out a pick last night.
2:43
It's the Rays Marlins nerfie. It steamed overnight. I'm getting really good...
2:46
I- if, if I had a nickel for every time I gained a penny of, uh, a CLV on these nerfies, I'd be rich because it, it's really easy to, to kind of pick out which ones are gonna move overnight.
2:55
Not always as correlative to the, the winning bets, uh, because this market's just so random. But I am on that nerfie today. It's probably the only baseball bet I am going to make, um, until the trade deadline.
3:09
Yesterday was really weird. Yesterday was kind of a mini trade deadline. Right. And what I mean by that is there were guys getting pulled from starts because of trades. Houston's situation got completely blown up.
3:22
Today's starter for Cincinnati got blown up last night with Frankie Montas getting traded to the Brewers.
3:28
Again, when you're dealing with baseball on a daily basis, the most important thing over a- anything else is who's starting on the mound, and when those situations get tweaked with that are on a...
3:43
Like, we had no idea that Jake Bloss, who was the starter for Houston yesterday, was being talked about in the Kikuchi trade.
3:49
A lot of people bet, for example, a lot of people bet that nerfie last night because it was Paul Skene. Even though Bloss isn't this ace pitcher, any time Paul Skene's on the mound, people are gonna bet the nerfie.
3:59
Right. You bet that nerfie two, three hours before the game.
4:03
Even if you bet it, you know, last night, two, two nights ago, the night before, and Bloss gets scratched because of a trade, you're on the hook for that nerfie still. Same thing in Detroit yesterday with Flaherty.
4:16
Now, I haven't heard that Flaherty got traded yesterday, but everybody was betting that nerfie yesterday 'cause it was Bybee Flaherty, low total, big nerfie game. That's the tricky stuff with the nerfie.
4:27
Not every market's like this. You're on the hook no matter what. If those starting pitchers get scratched- Action... action no matter what.
4:36
So if you bet the nerfie in UC yesterday, you, you cashed anyways because whoever was relieving, um, you know, uh, Bloss did a great job. I think they had, like, a no-hitter into the fifth inning yesterday for Houston.
4:45
Uh, Skene's not as solid, but he had his moments. And Detroit, that, that was a yerfie. Uh, Cleveland scored in the first inning off, I think, Bo Brisky, who was the guy that started in place of Flaherty.
4:56
So we had a lot of trades last night and a lot of trades coming up today. Really tricky day to bet baseball, Kelly. Really tough day. Yeah.
5:01
Oh, yeah, de- uh, definitely we were, you know, we, you and I were talking about this a little bit yesterday, but I think this is, uh, I, I, you know, almost any sport, right?
5:08
You get around, you get around a trade deadline, it's just, it's be careful, if anything. Yeah.
5:13
I, I, yeah, maybe there's n- maybe there are some spots you can bet, but man, you gotta be, you just gotta be sure of things [laughs] like guys are gonna be in the lineup. Yeah.
5:21
When, I mean, when baseball, more so than any other sport actually that I can think of, it is, immediate reaction is, okay, trade might not even be announced yet, but guy's getting pulled out of the lineup- Exactly...
5:31
and you know it's coming. A- and it's, that can come out of nowhere if you're pla- planning on betting these games. So I'm gonna be careful today. We should get some news over the next six hours.
5:42
I don't think we're gonna be, maybe, who knows? Maybe we'll be on the air for one of the big moves. The bigger moves yesterday, the, the guys that were pulled from starts, not as big a move.
5:51
And again, I haven't heard anything on Flaherty, but the fact that he got pulled from a start yesterday, I think it's pretty obvious that he's in some kind of trade talks. Yeah.
5:58
I, uh, maybe the trade hasn't happened yet, but the talks are ongoing. Bloss g-Definitely got traded yesterday. He was part of the Kikuchi deal. Toronto sends Kikuchi to Houston.
6:07
Houston got Looper, Fito, um, Blas, and I think one other prospect. The other trades that were impactful yesterday, the Dodgers and the Cardinals made a three team deal together with the White Sox.
6:17
The White Sox are basically that old house on the corner that's having the yard sale. [laughs] Everything has to go. Everything. The guy's, you know, knick-knacks and paddywhacks from 20 years ago that he hasn't used.
6:31
Every little trinket in the garage has to be sold by the, [laughs] by the White Sox. They dealt Fetty and Pham. Actually, good job by the White Sox. I remember the Tommy Pham deal right before the season started.
6:42
He was kind of going back and forth on where he wanted to sign with. He ended up picking Chicago.
6:47
Probably not the best choice for his, um, you know, win-loss record, but now he gets traded to a cont- I don't want to say contender in the Cardinals, but at least they're in the race more so than the White Sox are.
6:57
Right. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Um, but that's one of those examples of a team taking a low risk flyer on a guy in the off season late- Mm-hmm...
7:04
late in spring training, and then using him as a piece to flip back, uh, some prospects. I don't know the prospects that the White Sox got back, but they gave up Kopech, they gave up Fetty, they gave up Pham.
7:16
Um- Miguel Vargas. I don't know. It's just- Alexander Albertus, and Geral Perez. There you go. St. Louis. Those are the guys. If you know them- From the Dodgers... God bless you.
7:24
Um, Tommy Edmund also goes to the Dodgers, which I thought was an interesting kind of side piece to that ménage à trois three team deal they did. Um, the Braves get Jorge Soler back, which is funny.
7:34
It is funny to see guys go back to their former teams. Yeah. Um, which is always intriguing. They made a deal with the Giants.
7:40
The, the one thing that I like about this day and today, or yesterday and today, really the last three or four days, and the Cubs are a good example of this, we were unsure on certain teams, are you buying or selling?
7:52
Right. Well, the Cubs are buyers. Well, the Giants are sellers. And I think that's, you know, you kind of get this, um, I ta- I use the example of playing blackjack.
8:03
Imagine playing blackjack and you get to see the dealer's hole cards. Every other day of the season pretty much, we don't get to see the dealer's hole cards.
8:11
We do not know what's going on in these organizations behind the scenes.
8:15
When the trade deadline happens and they've got to flip the hole cards over, we get to see them, and I think that's adva- uh, you know, it, it's advantageous for us to go inside the minds of these, uh, uh, behind th- you know, front offices and scouting departments and kind of see how they value guys and see how they value their own organizations, and see what the price is.
8:35
Like, we're, we might find out about Tarik Skubal today. We might find out about some other starters.
8:39
Flaherty, I think, is a guy that, you know, [laughs] since he got pulled from a start yesterday, I would expect him to get moved at some point today. Um, those are big names.
8:47
I, you know, those are guys that, Cy Young candidates, those are all-star type caliber pitchers. Um, Eric Fetty, uh, he's having an all-star caliber year. We'll see what he does in St. Louis. St.
8:58
Louis just keeps losing games in tough ways. Um, and the Brewers keep winning games in tough ways.
9:03
I, I think it's going to be hard pressed for anyone, uh, to win that division besides Milwaukee, even though I have no faith in Milwaukee. The Dodgers obviously showing you their hand.
9:12
The Yankees, Jess Chisholm looks great. Yeah. Like, it, it's just, you're starting to see some of these players. The Blue Jays are a selling team. We'll see if they move another one of their big pieces today.
9:22
Yeah, Justin Turner to the Mariners- Yeah, that was another one... Yusmeiro Petit to the Astros. And then Montas was the other one, um, that we mentioned yesterday.
9:30
But this is, this is a day that, I'll be honest, I don't have a whole strong desire to bet baseball. I, I'd rather look at other things.
9:38
Um, the other news we saw last night, and we were talking about this before we came on, um, and we'll get to some Olympic stuff a little bit later in the show. Drew Dinsick's going to come on in this hour.
9:47
We'll talk, uh, Olympic tennis, actually coming up in our next segment. Um, but Coco Gauff just had a really rough morning, and, and, and I was on her 5-1 to win, uh, uh, the women's gold medal.
9:57
Um, I want to say she was like a, like a minus 1,500 favorite or something against Donna Vekic. Um, uh, she was a big favorite, um, overnight.
10:05
A- and really her and, and, and, and Iga Swiatek were, were just massive favorites in, in both of their matches. You, you got it there? Yeah, I'm seeing like minus 700. Minus 700. Yeah, so. So she was a big favorite.
10:15
Yeah. Um, loses, uh, in straight sets to Donna Vekic, and one of it was, was controversial. You said you were watching the match this morning?
10:22
I was watching a fair amount, but then they were, yeah, they were, uh, she was arguing with the ump over whatever. But- Yeah...
10:28
I mean, I, I, prepping for the show, it is, uh, it's t- You were watching- Well, it's tough in the- One eye open...
10:33
it's tough in the early stages because I got my two TVs going with, I got Canada and Australia basketball going, which I love. Oh, yeah. What's the, what's the, about the basketball game? Ca- Canada held on.
10:41
They did win, uh, I think they won by 10- Okay... over Australia. I have not been watching the Olympics. I feel like I'm, I feel like the Olympics are that show that everyone says I need to watch and then I don't watch.
10:50
Uh, I, I, I'm, I'm just like- Like, "You have to see this movie. It's so good." I'm the guy who I think is watching the Olympics for all the wrong reasons.
10:56
You know, like I, I, I, I, [laughs] I think people- Because you're betting on the pommel horse? Well, no, no, like the, like the people that get into the Olympic sports, like that's what it's meant for. Yeah.
11:04
Like I'm the guy who's watching the same old stuff I'd watch anyways. Yeah. It's like I'm just like missing the NBA, so I'm watching basketball.
11:09
I think, I think the Olym- the, the best part about the Olympics, and NBC does a great job with this, this is where the reporters really shine. Yeah. We don't know these g- it's unlike the NBA. Everyone knows LeBron.
11:22
We don't know these guys. Very true. Yep. Being able to tell the story and, and connect us to these athletes, I think is one of the best things about the Olympics.
11:30
Harder to do in the basketball, easier to do in the swimming, gymnastics type of sports. The Gold Zone's been sweet. The Go- I did watch like 20 minutes of that. I should turn on the Gold Zone.
11:40
We've got our own Gold Zone coming up next. That's right. Drew Dinsick, Will Capor on the other side of Numbers Game.
11:52
[upbeat rock music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, go to vsin.com right now.
12:03
I am currently on an NFL Hall of Fame game preview posted, uh, yesterday by Steve Makinen, and I'll be honest, this is very detailed.
12:13
He has the history of every Hall of Fame game dating back to 2000, including a ton of news, notes on this year's Hall of Fame game, which will be played, I believe, between the Texans and the Bears.
12:24
Uh, so you'll see, maybe you'll see Caleb Williams this week, but really good stuff. Of course, all that is available to you at vsin.com. Um, real excited to talk a little college football coming up in our next segment.
12:36
Uh, Pete Fiutak? I don't know if I'm pronouncing- Yep, Pete Fiutak... his last name correctly. Pete Fiutak's coming on.
12:41
Uh, Paul Sporer from, uh, FanGraphs also on, uh, in our next hour to talk baseball trade deadline of course today.
12:47
Have not heard anything yet besides the news that came last night, which we updated a little earlier in the show.
12:52
But I quickly w- quickly want to, uh, touch up again what we just heard from Drew Dincic, who, I mean, again, y- you know, the Olympic stuff aside, which is obviously very unique and, and, and very actionable today, but the NFL stuff is really where, um, I, I, I think is, is, is really fascinating.
13:11
So the teasers are always a thing that is, I don't want to say becoming a hot button topic. It has been, the pricing structure has been a hot button topic for a number of years now.
13:23
Uh, Kelly and I were going back and forth during the break. If I recall, there was still a shop in town that gave you 20 cent teasers on a six-pointer.
13:31
Um, I am unaware if they still exist [laughs] because the, it changes constantly. We'll find out in a couple weeks. Yeah, I just checked.
13:39
Uh, uh, the, uh, there's not many like, you know, teasers or buy a half a point options up right now, uh, Jared- No, they don't want you to manipulate lines... because we're talking about price comparison.
13:47
[laughs] They don't want you to manipulate lines. I, the- But I think Caesars and William Hill went to 125 last season, but I can't remember. You might be right. I don't remember.
13:54
I've made a lot of bets between now and then. I also think Wynn was right around there too, but I don't even have a Wynn account. Wynn, Wynn was right. I have a Wynn account, I can check it.
14:00
Um, but again, I don't know if the teasers are up yet for the season. I think that's the issue. So the preseason teasers is not something I've ever considered.
14:09
I've never considered teasing a preseason number based off of the steam. And listen, it, it makes sense from, uh, uh, a strategy standpoint.
14:20
I, I really liked how he kind of detailed that when you get moves in the preseason, it's more signal than noise. What does that mean? Noise is sometimes numbers move just based off of ratings and opinions.
14:33
Really, opinions. Ratings get changed throughout the course of the week.
14:37
Some of those ratings are based off of actual models, but some of them too are manual adjustments, and then bets are made off of the opinions week to week.
14:46
The preseason, it's more information based, kind of like the NFL draft.
14:51
Guy gets announced as the starting quarterback, this guy gets benched, this guy's gonna be moved here, and the numbers move considerably based off of that information.
15:02
Well, if a number moves from two to four, right, minus two to minus four, doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to play to four.
15:09
But if, let's say, multiple teams go from minus two to minus four, or minus two and a half to minus six and a half, like, let's say it's a big move. Well, yeah, what,
15:21
what's stopping us from, from, from teasing that number back down? I think the more controversial opinion is teasing through zero- Mm...
15:28
which I have always been told if you do it, you're gonna get not only clowned, but they're gonna take your gambling card away- [laughs]... and you're gonna have to move to Saskatchewan. Like- Yeah...
15:38
would you ever do that? Like, I, I- Go Roughriders... I would get, I, I would be scared of the opinion. I don't like, I usually don't care about what other people think. I might care about that.
15:46
[laughs] I think it's, I think it's interesting. I, what, what surprised me there was not that he brought up teasers, but that he brought up that situation. That's a unique situation.
15:58
Because I thought he would, as soon as he brought it up, I was like, "Okay, I know where he's going here."
16:01
I was like, "Where he's going here is he's gonna talk about low totals, so therefore you're getting more- Low totals, yeah...
16:06
uh, because the low total, you're getting m- you're getting more value out of teasing a number up." That makes sense. Um, but you know, he- Totals are always pretty low in the preseason though.
16:14
Well- They're usually in the 30s for the most part. Yeah, so if you can tease a two and a half up to an eight and a half, right, you're getting even more value off that.
16:19
We talked about that all last season while the d- totals just kept dropping, dropping, dropping- Yeah... um, during the regular season.
16:25
But you know, that, that's not where Drew we- uh, Drew went with, um, you know, going, going to that minus four that's been steamed up because you know some information's still worth, uh, you know, maybe not laying that full four, but figuring out a way to get back under that three.
16:39
I do th- I, I think it's interesting, and I think there are a lot of things, we were just talking during the break, there's a lot of things that are just kind of frowned upon, uh, from the betting community that you can still use some of these different bets to manipulate numbers in your advantage.
16:52
And- Yeah... like, one of the ones you and I were kicking around is, like, I've had this conversation with multiple people too about- Yeah, we, we need to go there with this...
16:57
yeah, about like thr- you know, when you're talking how expensive it's gotten to buy a half point in the NFL, and you're sitting at a three and a half that you just can't s- can't start s- uh, stop staring at, and you wanna lay it.
17:09
You don't wanna lay three and a half though, you wanna lay three.
17:12
And like, I've heard, you know, like, people that I respect, you know, tie those into two point, uh, two team six point teasers if there's another leg that week they really love, and that's a tease through the zero situation that a lot of people would be, uh, you know, pretty grossed out over, [laughs] I think.
17:26
So, um, I think it's fascinating. I don't think that there is... I, a lot of this stuff, we talk about the, what we think is the best way to do it.
17:36
It doesn't always mean that there is a 100% black and white right and wrong answer to every different situation. Well, the math guys will tell you something different.
17:45
Like when we talk to Steve Fezek, who's an actu- l- literally an actuary. Mm. When I say his brain is a computer, I'm not kidding. It's crazy actually.
17:54
But the math guys will tell you something very differently with teasers. They have the strongest opinions. 'Cause let's be honest, at the end of the day, it's all numbers. Mm-hmm.
18:04
Whereas some of the ratings and some of the power ratings are, can be manually tweaked based off of things that happen, which is where some of the opinion and some of the discourse starts.
18:17
Whereas the teasers are strictly a math equation, and that's where you get a really strong opinion from the actuarial community about what is positive expectation. I'm not a math guy.
18:30
I, I play one on TV sometimes when I get fed really good numbers, but that's not my cup of tea. I, I am not, [laughs] I'm not an actuary. I am not someone who has that kind of, uh, computer science-type brain.
18:43
I trust Drew's, uh, es- you know, his numbers, and if he's telling me that there's value somewhere, I'm gonna look.
18:51
Um, I'm not gonna s- go as far as to say that I'm gonna make it, like, a best bet of the week, but yeah, maybe that's something... 'Cause I've never been, I've never been a big preseason bettor- Mm-hmm...
19:03
because the r- at the time when the information is coming out, I am still warming up. It's kinda like running a marathon before you've even run a 5K. When the preseason is happening, I am training.
19:19
I am warming up for the gauntlet of the regular season. I am doing all of those things that Drew said he was doing, which is going through all the numbers.
19:27
Now, I'm doing them a lot later than I probably should, but I'm not a professional gambler that derives his income from betting.
19:33
In May, June, July, and Au- In May, June, and July, when Drew's doing that first stage of the equation, I'm doing nerfy stuff. Like, I have my focus elsewhere. So
19:42
in, in August when I can actually see these teams and there's news and I can actually get into a rhythm of a week that kind of mirrors what a, a regular season week looks like, I'm warming up. I'm not ready to fire away.
19:56
That doesn't mean there's not value, but personally me, I'm not ready to start hitting the trigger.
20:02
But maybe if I can react to some of the moves that I'm seeing, because th- that, that's the reason that I don't bet in a lot of the preseason. I'm not as proactive. In the regular season, I'm proactive.
20:14
My numbers are ready. I'm doing the shows. I'm good to go. I've seen the teams. I know what happened last week. It's a system. It's a rhythm. It's a timing. It's a cadence. In the preseason, I'm still learning that.
20:23
But if you can do something to where, hey, this number just moved three points because this starter is playing, and I can still bet that game even after the move, I don't have to do as much work.
20:37
It might not be a positive expectation at the end of the day, but at least I can make some bets and get involved in a way that I'm being told by a professional handicapper who I trust- Yeah...
20:46
that's not the dumbest way to get involved. So maybe that's something I dabble with this year. I have never, ever teased a preseason game in my entire life, I don't think. Definitely not through zero.
20:56
Maybe I've teased at some point in the past- Right, yeah... you know, a, a traditional teaser, like a Wong teaser.
21:01
I have ne- because I've always been told if you tease through zero, you're a dullard and you're gonna have to go move to Siberia- [laughs]...
21:05
'cause you're not, they're not gonna want, they're not gonna trust your opinion anymore. Um, yeah. I, I brought it up yesterday.
21:10
I do think when you're, if you're attacking, you know, looking to bet preseason, I, I, I do think y- well, mo- one of the most important areas to start with is just that quarterback depth chart and who- Yes...
21:18
you're gonna see, and that's, but that's also a lot of, you know, what Drew's bringing up, i- information. What are you getting, right?
21:23
It is really mainly information on playing time, um, you know, for, you know, starters or backups or, you know, and then specifically quarterbacks, what are they doing, um, you know, for a half, for a quarter?
21:34
So I, I think there's al- it's always worth going through before the preseason begins, in my opinion. Like, I was doing some of this yesterday.
21:40
Circling, okay, head coaches and then quarterback rooms that you think, uh, you know, could be profitable during the preseason. One thing that kinda, uh- That's a good idea...
21:49
shocked me a little bit yesterday, Jared, was, like, we'd always bring up these coaches that you're like, "Okay," like, John Harbaugh takes it real serious. Like, he's something like 40- Fading the number...
21:58
19 ATS- Fading the number by now, I think... in the preseason. But, like, there's not really anybody else like that anymore.
22:03
Like, he- there always used to be him and, like, a couple others that you're like, "Well, they've only been around for, like, four years, but they've done pretty well in the, uh, in the preseason."
22:11
There are not that many other coaches that you can really be like, "Well, this is that guy," besides John Harbaugh. Quarterback rooms, I think there are a few. Minnesota intrigues me, as you guys see.
22:20
Minnesota definitely is intriguing. Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Nick Mullens is their third-stringer. Like, you could do a lot worse at third string than Nick Mullens. Handicapping third-string quarterbacks is an art form.
22:30
Catch the fever. We'll get a little college football on the other side. Pete Fewsmith. Big 10, what's gonna happen this year in Numbers Game? [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
22:44
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Top of the hour, trade deadline Tuesday. Paul Sporer from FanGraphs gonna come on a little later this hour.
22:55
We'll talk a little Major League Baseball. But first, it's time, uh, to stay on the gridiron, but we'll go from the pros to the college game. Joining us now from College Football News, Pete Fewcich.
23:06
Very excited to talk to this gentleman. Follow him on X at petefewcich. Joining us, uh, via the Progressive Guest Line. So Pete, um, a, a new season, right? Hope springs eternal in the college football world.
23:17
Um, and, and let's start with some win totals, because I, I was perusing through collegefootballnews.com last night.
23:22
I stumbled upon your top 10 win total predictions, uh, article, and I, I was like, I wanna go right to the top. I wanted to see what his number one choice is.
23:31
And I'm not surprised it was Colorado, which tends to be a very popular choice, but it might surprise some of you that Pete believes the under is the way to go for the Buffaloes this year.
23:40
Not quite buying into year two of Deion Sanders. Please explain yourself, Pete. I'm a huge Deion Sanders fan. I'm old enough to have been a diehard from way back in the day.
23:49
I have the jersey in the closet downstairs somewhere to prove it. But, uh, I love this whole thing. I hope it works at Colorado, but I d- it's just not happening. I just don't think you can just go transfer portal.
24:03
I mean, you have to build this up. And my thing about Colorado has been if you looked at this objectively, it was actually a successful first year.
24:11
I mean, forget the fact that they w- were last place in the Pac-12 They went from one win to four. That's how you're supposed to jump up in a first year when you have to change absolutely everything.
24:21
And by any other measure, it'd be, "Okay, we're, we're, we're setting the foundation for the future." But they still didn't fix the lines. They still didn't fix the defense.
24:28
They could lose to North Dakota State right out of the gate. North Dakota State's still probably the best team in the FCS. They could lose to Nebras- at Nebraska. Colorado State almost got them last year.
24:38
Baylor's a whole lot better than at UCF than Kansas State at Arizona. That's a problem for the first, uh, six games of the season. So to do this, you just gotta lose seven.
24:49
There are certainly seven losable games on this thing. Yeah, Pete, I agree. And I think they're kind of dangling that five and a half. I mentioned this during the break.
24:55
Like, uh, people are thinking, "Oh, no way Colorado's not bowl eligible this year." I'm sure they're gonna see a ton of money on that over, and, and it was a big fade.
25:05
Like, after Colorado started hot last year, some of the sharpest bettors I know were sprinting to the window to fade them, especially in that game against Oregon, just because of all the money and all the attention that they were getting.
25:16
It, it turned into a, a just an albatross of a, of a team down the stretch where, with a lot of good fading opportunities. Um, I, I don't like fading this team, especially in bowl games.
25:25
Uh, Air Force also on your list as we stay in the state of Colorado, um, higher win total than you might expect considering they lost everyone.
25:32
But you think they're gonna just reload, which is what Air Force does, right? Every single year.
25:38
They lose everybody, and it's, it's hard to kind of s- y- you can't look at Air Force and be like, "Oh yeah, they're gonna be just as good, if not better this year," because every single year they have to replace, like, 19 starters every season.
25:50
And so it is a tough schedule. They, it is a team that has to d- completely do over.
25:55
But again, they have their system of doing this where they just build up the upperclassmen, then it really is the next guy up, uh, and every single time.
26:03
And then under, uh, this regime, they have been fantastic at being able to just win nine games or more every single season. They just kind of have the style and the system.
26:13
And so, hey, you know, outside of 2020, I think, what has it been then? Since 2016 or something that they haven't at least gotten to at least six wins.
26:21
So, uh, they're gonna be able to rock back up and just be, be there fast. So this is more of like a history kind of play- Hmm... uh, more than just, uh, any sort of actually X's and O's sorts of thing.
26:32
I'm excited to see Riley Leonard in South Bend, but it, it is a pretty lofty win total for the Irish this year of Notre Dame. They open at Texas A&M. That is a tough game.
26:41
And then, of course, uh, you know, their regular cast of character opponents. You got USC in there. They play Florida State, which also is gonna be a tough game, uh, depending how the 'Noles look this year.
26:50
But 10 and two based off of a win total of 10 and a half keeps you to the under, and that's kind of the direction you're leaning here. Yeah, it's the best way to go.
26:58
I mean, it, I, I, whenever you get a 10 and a half, I always tend to say go under, especially if you get an 11, always go under, because all it takes is one and you're kind of fine. Uh, but 10 and a half, no.
27:09
Go over with the, uh, some of the bigger boys. But Notre Dame, like you said, they could lose to Texas A&M to start out. This is a very, very good Irish team.
27:18
I mean, they are good enough, uh, and the, the schedule just isn't that bad. Uh, but if you look at the... Like last year, everyone forgets, you know, they had the really bad day against Louisville from out of the blue.
27:28
They could lose at USC. And we don't know exactly how this is gonna go with the new expanded college football playoff. Notre Dame might not need that USC game. They're certainly gonna try and care.
27:38
But USC might need that game a whole lot more. They could certainly lose to Florida State. Uh, they could have a bad day against Georgia Tech.
27:45
They could have a bad day against, uh, you know, even, you know, uh, Purdue, but Louisville definitely. Uh, but all you need is two.
27:51
So you're kind of seeing, okay, well, if you lose to Texas A&M to start, you lose one more and there's your under. Or if Riley Leonard's ankle isn't quite right, he's supposedly fine. Everyth- uh, things, all systems go.
28:02
But if he goes down, there's a huge drop-off between the ones and the twos at the Notre Dame quarterback spot. We're talking college football with Pete Fiutak, collegefootballnews.com.
28:10
All right, let's get to some of the big boys and some positive seasons that we expect from Georgia and Ohio State. Let's start with Georgia, who just, it just seems like they are a juggernaut.
28:20
I think Carson Beck's gonna have a big year. I'm not overly excited to bet his Heisman number at, you know, at the tippy top of the market right now. But I would not- No...
28:27
be surprised at all if he is on the podium and, and horse-dick that award at the end of the season. Uh, yeah, same thing for both Georgia and Ohio State.
28:35
There, there's Georgia, Ohio State, and there's absolutely everyone else. I mean, these two are just obscenely talented. Uh, they were good coming back.
28:42
If you noticed, you, they, both of them didn't have a whole lot of guys taken in the NFL drafts, and they're all gonna g- go in next, next year. And the transfer portal just kicked in hard for both of them.
28:52
They are just so much better than everyone else. So like I said before, I do not like going, uh, over on a 10 and a half ever. But with these two, yeah.
29:00
I like Ohio State better than Georgia because look at that Georgia schedule. Anybody else is like, this is like a five and seven, you know- [laughs]... schedule for just about anybody else.
29:09
I mean, Clemson, at Kentucky who's really good this year, at Alabama, Auburn, at Texas. Florida's all right. Tennessee, at Ole Miss is killer, and even Georgia Tech's pretty good.
29:20
I mean, there's five losses there for, you know, easily just to start for any other team. But Georgia's just Georgia, so they might lose once. I don't think they're losing twice.
29:29
Yeah, O- I think Ohio State's in a similar boat.
29:32
I mean, I, I, I do view their roster as light years ahead of the rest of the Big Ten, especially with Michigan being a little bit down this year and kind of overall the watering down of the Big Ten with more teams and, and more travel situations and more cross-country stuff happening this year.
29:46
Um, but I don't know if I trust Will Howard, so sell me on Will Howard. I don't have to. I'll sell you on the, the rest.
29:52
[laughs] I mean, the defense, everyone, everybody forgets, like it got lost that Ohio State had the puck on its stick with a chance to beat Michigan.
30:00
They were driving for a chance at the win, uh, and that was with Kyle McCord And so that defense all year long was an absolute killer.
30:09
Now they get just about everyone back, and they get Caleb Downs, who might be the best player in all of college football, and they've just upgraded. They are so deep defensively.
30:17
No one's scoring more than 17 points on this bunch. And again, look at this ske- compared to everyone at Ohio State fans last year are, are screaming about Michigan's schedule of what was a non-conference.
30:27
East Carolina, UNLV, and I can't remember the third. It was some easy team. Uh, but look at it, Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. Wow. There's your non-conference slate, Ohio State.
30:37
You know, set the to- you know, th- each game, they're gonna beat those three by a combined 150 points. And then, you know, at Michigan State, Michigan State didn't go bowling last year.
30:47
Iowa is, Iowa, they're good, but that's a home game. At Oregon's the dangerous game, obviously, but that's the one. At Penn State's dangerous. And Michigan's dangerous. Everything else, forget about.
30:57
They're not gonna lose at Northwestern. They're not gonna lose to Purdue.
31:00
So it's really a three-game season, and all you're asking Ohio State to do, who is probably the best team in America, is to win two of those three against Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan.
31:09
Yeah, I can tell you, as a Penn State alum, Pete, I am 100% confident that they are coming into Happy Valley and, and, and wiping the floor with us.
31:16
Oh, no, but, but, but your, but your guys, but your fan base might wear white T-shirts. Yeah. That's gonna change everything. [laughs] Pete, I'm one of those guys, Kelly's laughing over here- Yeah...
31:24
'cause he knows the white out is, uh, is- Boo... it's not a, it's, it's not a farce, but it, it, it loses its luster after the 20th time that you do it. Oh, yeah. I was in the building the first time.
31:34
When they beat Ohio State, it was the Troy Smith Ohio State team. Tom Gahagan had the sack, the, in the last, uh, moment there of the game. That was the year Penn State went to the Orange Bowl. That was it. Yep.
31:44
That, i- i- it's been, it's been downhill for the Nittany Lions since. We could talk a little about Penn State. They weren't on your list of, uh, of, of, of win totals. Um, but- They're great. Yeah. They're great.
31:54
Go ahead. They're, they're up there. Yeah. Yeah. They're great this year. I- it's, as always. Um, but there's always that Ohio State factor. Exactly. But expanded College Football Play, it, now the, the game's changed.
32:04
In an expanded College Football Playoff era, go 10 and 2, and, you know, Penn State, you are the nine in the, the, the playoff, and you've got your shot. You're in it to win it. So, uh, if you're...
32:15
And that's, that's across the board for all these teams last year. Where it used to be you lose right out of the gate and you're kinda hosed.
32:21
Now, 10 and 2 in your Power Four conference, and you're almost certainly gonna be in. Oh, Penn State's definitely gonna go to the College Bowl Playoff.
32:27
They're gonna win their first College Bowl Playoff game at home, and then they're gonna lose to one of those Georgia, Ohio State-type teams, uh, in the, in, in the second round. Um- As will everyone else. Yeah.
32:36
As will everyone else. Um, [smacks lips] so I guess that's a good way to frame it. Because Texas and Oregon kinda are the next two teams up on that list, right? If you look at the odds board, um, in college football.
32:47
But you, you are kinda leaning under in both this year.
32:50
I- and so neither of those teams, i- has any chance to kind of, or I guess maybe has some chance, but neither of those teams in your opinion are good chances to really challenge the Georgias and Ohio States this year.
33:03
Well, welcome to the VIP lounge, son. I mean, O- O- Oregon could beat Ohio State, you know? And, but here's the thing about Oregon. Give me their great win.
33:11
I mean, they had one a couple years ago to Ohio State and then they kinda gagged away the end of the season. Uh, but this is a, a, you know, this is a program that, you know, they... Look at their wins last year.
33:21
Who'd they beat? And don't say Liberty. I mean, they just did not beat a whole lot of great teams.
33:25
Now they're going from a Pac-12, which was good, but they missed a bunch of key teams, to now this in the Big 10, where you do have to play an Ohio State, and you have to play a whole lot of better teams.
33:34
And so, uh, s- same with Texas. Welcome to the SEC, son. I mean, okay, you beat, uh, Alabama last year, but they could've and should've lost to TCU last year, Kansas State. All you need is two losses on this.
33:44
And you look at both schedules and you can find two losses on both. Yeah. Pete Butek, uh, no losses on your schedule, pal. We appreciate the time. Always. College football news, great stuff.
33:54
I, I will be reading, as I always do throughout the course of the regular season. Have a great day, Derek. Appreciate it. Yeah, I, I, I agree, um, that Georgia and Ohio State are light years better. Ah.
34:07
I don't want Ohio State to come into Happy Valley and wipe the floors with us again this year. [laughs] Please don't, please don't make me watch that again.
34:14
Was, was that the legendary Orange Bowl that I attended for Florida State versus Penn State? Yeah. What a year. That was like the worst football game ever. Triple, triple overtime, multiple kicks missed in overtime.
34:25
But Penn State prevailed by a field goal. More college football on the other side of Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:42
Trade deadline Tuesday. Uh, it is an exciting day if you're a fan of, of any team, uh, in the Major League Baseball world. Your team could, could add or subtract a significant player, uh, in the next few hours.
34:53
So let's get up to date on what's happening. For that, we bring in our pal Paul Spor. Uh, does great work for FanGraphs. Follow him on X @Spor. And Paul, uh, let's just not bury the lead here.
35:04
Um, who do you think is gonna be the biggest name, uh, dealt in the next few hours before the deadline? Well, for those unaware, I am a Tigers fan, and it's gotta be Jack Flaherty.
35:13
I'm gonna be really, really upset with my favorite team if they don't, uh, if they don't move Flaherty, right? Like, they're kind of fringe competing, so I'm not saying they gotta trade Schoop.
35:22
Although, if the Orioles do come with, like, a, a Bassitt, Kjerstad, Kauser, Holiday, pick two out of those four, then I'm, I'm totally for it. But Jack Flaherty was a one-year signing,
35:35
and this is literally the perfect outcome right now. A- actually, the more perfect outcome would've been if they w- had a good first month and they were, like, truly competing.
35:42
Like, the, the Tigers could have been the Royals this year if things had gone right earlier in hitting. Um, and maybe that would be the, the best outcome, would be Jack Flaherty would be leading them to the playoffs.
35:52
This is definitely the second-best outcome. They are in fringe contention, and he is a full-on ace again. And this market is hot. If the Tigers do not trade Jack Flaherty
36:02
I think, you know, it gets close to, uh, to malpractice there- Mm... by Scott Harris and company. Yeah, I, I thought when they banged him from yesterday's start, that was kind of the, uh- Got me...
36:12
uh, kind of indicator that he might get moved. We did see that situation happen with the Astros yesterday, where Jake Boss got moved, and it was, like, immediate. We, we, we got the news of- Yep...
36:21
where and, and, and when and how. Uh, having to wait a little bit longer here, um, for the Jack Flaherty news, but, um, it... I do expect that to take place at some point today.
36:31
Based on the moves that have already taken place, what do you think is the most impactful? You can name a couple.
36:36
Um, and is there a situation that you think really got better based off of the moves that were made over the last few days? Uh, I, I certainly like the, the Kikuchi pickup for Houston.
36:45
They definitely needed some pitching. You know, they've been kind of the, uh, the sleeping giant this year. We kind of wrote them off.
36:51
I say "we" as, like, the baseball community, because they were at certain points where their record historically, like, wh- whatever it was, their 370 win percentage.
36:59
If you have a 370 or worse win percentage X number of games into the season, you don't make the playoffs. It was, it was that kind of venture for Houston. So they've clawed and fought their way back in.
37:09
They're maybe gonna get some guys healthy. But they needed, they needed some pitching depth, so Kikuchi was a nice pickup for them. I know that's one of the more recent moves, but I did really like that.
37:17
The Rays, you know, uh, there is a general pushback like every deadline that they go... that they pop off like this of, "Well, why do we always fawn all over the Rays?"
37:27
And I don't know, from my standpoint, it's because they, they keep not missing. They keep doing things the right way.
37:33
That team, the Rays, are not that much worse today than they were before all these trades in terms of their chances the rest of this year, and they're markedly better for years to come.
37:42
They work on a shoestring budget, which is self-imposed, of course. Every team is truly rich, but the owners decide how much they wanna give, and yet they do it the right way.
37:51
Um, so yeah, I think, I think the Rays have done well even as a non-contender. I like what the Cardinals did with that big Fedde move. Fedde, Pham is, like, total Cardinals.
37:59
Uh, both, obviously Pham's been there, but Fedde is such a Cardinals pitcher. And what I mean by that is just, like, a quality kind of mid-tier guy that they will get the most out of.
38:08
Like, he'll, he'll probably keep pitching, like, a number two for them. And then of course the big shoe to drop, uh, in addition to Flaherty, would be Crochet, and that could flip somebody's trade deadline too.
38:17
If a certain, uh, contending team gets Crochet, they could jump to the top of the list here. But I don't think any one team has been over the top way better, but a lot of the best teams have made sharp moves.
38:27
I even like what Philly's done. They've made moves on the edges, right?
38:30
They don't have to go out and get any sort of foundational pieces, but even their small moves, getting Estevez, who looks great, the Austin Hayes, uh, for San Anthony Dominguez. I love the first place first place trade.
38:41
So I like what Philly's done too, for sure. Yeah, I, I really like the Estevez.
38:44
I mean, he might be one of the better closers in baseball this year, um, moving spots and, and just, uh, being what, what I think is gonna be a really good, uh, bullpen addition, uh, for- Sure...
38:54
Philly, who really needed the bullpen help. Um, i- attacking today, it... this is, I would say, maybe the most unique, outside of maybe the last day of the season, the most unique day to bet baseball.
39:05
You could be betting on a team, and, and this happened yesterday. If you bet a Nerfy, which is, you know, action no matter who starts, you bet that- Yeah...
39:12
Nerfy in Houston, you bet that Nerfy in Detroit yesterday, you kind of got bamboozled there [laughs] with the, with them pulling those starters late. Very unique day to bet or to be in the fantasy world.
39:22
Um, what would be your overall advice to bettors today as they're trying to navigate this? [laughs] Be careful.
39:28
I really wouldn't get too involved with it, but I know we as handicappers and gamblers, we wanna get in there and try to outsmart the market, maybe anticipate some of these moves, which I get, but be smart with it.
39:39
I think there's even a case to maybe lower your unit rate on a day like today just to protect yourself a little bit.
39:44
If you wanna get in on it and you wanna, like, you know, try to go for some of these moves, because right now I don't think there's a ton of pitchers who could get moved on today's slate.
39:52
Uh, never say never, but I think you're pretty good for most of the slate, but the lineups could change, right?
39:57
You could lose a key piece there or a key bullpen piece, so things could still happen, so I would just be very cautious with it.
40:03
Uh, what- whatever my normal volume was on a, a standard Tuesday, I'm probably making that 75% worth just to protect myself. That being said, anything on, uh, your board today that we should be keeping an eye on?
40:16
Uh, honestly, I, I haven't really analyzed it because of the potential trades. Okay. Same with fantasy. You know, DFS, I, I am a little bit more, uh, set in what I wanna do.
40:25
Again, I don't think Hunter Brown is gonna have anything change. I like him against the Pirates.
40:28
Robbie Ray, his second start, he goes from facing the Dodgers to Oakland, and he was excellent against the Dodgers if he looks like he did. So I like those two as a, as a, uh, rotation there at DraftKings.
40:38
And then as far as hitters, um, I like stacking Houston against Bailey Falter, 'cause they hit lefties pretty well.
40:44
I think you can get some Milwaukee Brewers against Bryce Elder because he has certainly not recaptured last year's magic. And anytime Patrick Corbin. Now, in fairness, Patrick Corbin has been better of late. Yeah.
40:55
But I will never fault anybody for, for stacking against him still. I, I'm sorry, like, even with his recent run, he's only lowered the ERA down to 526. So- [laughs]...
41:04
credit where it's due, but I don't think you have to, like, stop chasing, uh, Patrick Corbin with your hitters. And so you can definitely get some hitters in against him today, for sure. I, I've got as...
41:13
and again, I'm, I'm more first inning focused with, with a lot of my wagering most days. I mean, he's- Mm-hmm... 21 starts. It's just 17 and 4 to the Nerfy.
41:20
I mean, he's, he's had a pretty decent run, at least in the first inning this year. It has tailed off- But then-... a little bit later. Yeah, may- maybe it's a situation where Patrick Corbin tires out then.
41:30
If he's that strong early on and starts to look good, but then ends up giving up those runs, I'm kind of curious what his, uh, you know, second and third time through might look like there.
41:38
Yeah, I think that's a great... and yeah, I'm noticing that a lot, and this is actually a really good macro question for you, Paul.
41:45
Now that we are seeing these starting pitchers basically turn into five inning or bust, like, it just, it- Yep... it seems like that's the goal every day.
41:53
Anything north of five innings is, like, bonus, and you need to be an elite pitcher these days to even, you know, have an outs number that's 18 and a half, which means you're pitching past the sixth inning into the seventh inning, which is just very rare.
42:05
Even for a guy like Logan Gilbert, even for a guy like Paul Skeens last night, you were getting significant- Yeah... plus money to go over 18 and a half outs, which means you're pitching into the seventh inning.
42:14
It's just, it's just a very rare thing.
42:17
I do think that makes the first inning, the first time through, those numbers that much more important as these guys just get condensed to basically two times through the lineup, and then you're out.
42:28
I totally agree, and it is a situation where because it is so tight, one tough inning, and it doesn't even have to be a tough inning in terms of damage. It just has to be in terms of pitch count. Yep. Right?
42:39
You can get out of the jam, but if you push 25 plus pitches, 30 is kind of that red zone. So if you start getting 25 plus for one inning, that can totally screw you for getting through six plus at that point.
42:50
So it is a real tenuous situation there. And like you said, maybe what, 10, 12 pitchers are even gonna get a, a, a six inning type of line where it looks like, uh, you even have to kind of be nervous about it.
43:01
But guys just don't go deeper anymore. That's not how they're trained. They're trained to empty the tank. They could if the training changed, right?
43:08
Th- this isn't a situation where pitchers are weaker and, and their predecessors were much stronger. It's that they're told, "Just give us what you got.
43:15
If it happens to be four and a third versus six and a third, we will figure it out with the bullpen. But we're not worried. We want you to give your best from, uh, the, from the jump there."
43:24
And that's why you see some of these, uh, guys come out so strong in the first three innings but then die out in the fourth or fifth because they've been emptying the tank that first time through.
43:33
Yeah, I, I've noticed it, and I'm not saying that's the only reason why the Nerfy has been profitable and successful this year.
43:42
But I think it's one of the contributing factors, is that these pitchers are, are, are gearing up earlier in games to give you their best stuff.
43:50
Because they know once they get past the second time through the lineup, they're toasted anyway, so they- Yeah... I'm seeing guys like, again, Skeens is kind of the exception to the rule.
43:58
But these guys come in, throw 100 in the first inning. Like, it used to be the opposite, where they would start slow and build for the end.
44:04
But now it seems like they're kind of just falling off a cliff in like the fourth or fifth inning. Because you might not get there. Exactly. Like you're saying, you, what are you saving it in the tank for? Exactly.
44:11
Only your, your, your true aces. And I, I, um, you know, being a Tigers fan, Justin Verlander was the best at, at the gaining.
44:19
That he's bringing his 98 to 100 in the seventh, eighth, ninth inning on those days that he was getting there, which was a lot more frequent even just 10, 12 years ago.
44:27
But it's a different game now, and, uh, I understand not, not everyone loves it. I like starting pitching, so I wanna see guys go longer. I love the true aces. But, uh, it does have a trickle effect.
44:36
And I agree, I think teams are ready to go, pitchers are ready to go from the jump more. Um, first inning scoring is still, you know, generally where you're gonna see the most scoring.
44:45
But pitchers come out a lot more geared up now than they ever have. Yeah, the thing that I noticed this year, and the data backs this up, less overall scoring, more home runs than average in the first inning.
44:56
Makes sense. That is what we're seeing ruin the Nerfy more often than not, is guys just piping them down the middle, and they're getting hit to Mars. Yeah. Paul Spohr always hitting one out of the park.
45:07
We appreciate the time, pal. Good luck on deadline day. Thanks, y'all. Take care. All right, we will wrap up a numbers game on the other side. Uh, I think we've got some baseball to get to, but what do you think, Kelly?
45:17
Maybe a little football, too? Yeah, maybe. What do you wanna talk about next segment? Maybe a little bit of both. Maybe a little bit of both. You'll have to come back and find out. Stay with us. [upbeat rock music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
