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Jul 9, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | July 9, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | July 9, 2025
00:00
43:44
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. It's the Sharp Plays.
0:13
They've also got AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you once again to check out thesharpplays.com. We get texts, we get tweets.
0:24
Uh, this is from, uh, Dave Ross. Dave Ross, Captain America, who hosts By the Books with Jensen Lewis here prior to us every weekday morning here at, uh- The Sauce? The Sauce? That's his nickname.
0:35
Oh, is that what you call him? I, uh, believe that was a stadium nickname for him back in the day. Oh, I was about to say- Dave, Dave "The Sauce" Ross...
0:41
I was about to say, "Here at VSiN," and right before I said VSiN, you go, "The Sauce?" [laughs] I'm like, "Yes, here at The Sauce." Uh, he says, "I absolutely"...
0:47
He texts, he goes, "I absolutely love the in the apartment by yourself one-arm wave in the r- [laughs] wave in the runner action. It is fantastic. It's exactly what I'd do."
0:56
I- it is, it has been years since I, since I have felt bad about, uh, sitting alone by myself and i- i- w- as soon as your, your butt leaves the couch, you know you're acting ridiculous a- and that if anybody could see you, they'd probably laugh.
1:10
But I, I've gotten, I've gotten past it. [laughs] I don't really care.
1:13
[laughs] Uh, this is, uh, Joe Pita also says, uh, Joe Pita said as a Phillies fan, let me get this correct, Joe Pita, our, our buddy, he says, "Every Giants fan knew," he said, "except for Duane Kuiper," obviously a Bay Area legend, "but that was a very disappointing call."
1:29
He says, "Like you, I instantly knew that was a potential loss in the making for the Phillies, but Kuiper didn't see it," quote, unquote, "uh, until he was waved around third base." Yeah, he just kept...
1:39
So he goes, "Bailey," well, what does he, he says, "Bailey's on the move. Bailey's on the move." It was awesome. Okay, I didn't hear that, but I also s- like, I, I didn't see, I didn't see it live.
1:49
I saw the replays, though, and I'm like, the, the camera work was a little shoddy, too. Like, he was basically scoring before I even knew what was going on. Well, the way that that ball caroms, it caroms quick.
2:00
Right, and they were- It, like, shoots off that wall... they're just, they were just tracking that, like, the entire time. By the time they finally cut back to Bailey it was like, oh, and then he's there. Mm-hmm.
2:07
He, he scored already. [laughs] Uh, Jensen Lewis, by the way, from By the Books, tweeted me that, uh, the Washington Commodores, Commanders, going some- with, with some new alternate uniforms this year.
2:19
Those, to me, look like Joe Gibbs-era pants. Oh, I like that. Joe Gibbs-era pants. Uh, this is from, uh, this is from Ray. "Hey, Gil, Kelly, does 10/1 on John Schneider for AL Manager of the Year need to be considered?"
2:34
Uh, considered, yes, but I will answer it how I answered, uh, it earlier, which is I just don't think the Blue Jays thing is sustainable. I get it.
2:41
8 and 0 in the month of July, but I just don't know if, if the Blue Jays by end of season, if John Schneider, Manager of the Year, will be a, uh, a bet worth having. Numbers guys, morning Gil.
2:51
While Iga may have stolen your heart many moons ago, it appears she is stealing towels at Wimbledon. Yeah, you hear about that? She'll, like, take a little souvenir here and there. She didn't mean to. What, like, wait.
3:01
W- whoa. Like- I mean-... did someone have a problem with that? Yeah, I know. Come on. Wouldn't you steal a towel? Matthew Mayberry, of course. Of course. If [laughs] And I'm not playing.
3:09
[laughs] Patrick Bailey walk-off, uh, to cash the base winner parlay. What a god Mark Portrid is. Pick 10, Gil as a Phillies fan, that sucked.
3:18
JB, I can only assume that Fezzik finally tailed the base winner parlay of the day because that was the luckiest luck box of all luck boxes. James Sot, Jim LFG, Iga to the semis right before the show starts. She knew.
3:31
She did. Um, let's see, Michael Montesano, our buddy, "I can only picture Gil last night after Bailey was [laughs] rounding second last night for game winning inside-the-park home run."
3:39
He's got a Kramer, uh, a Kramer meme there as well. On and on, we'll get to more tweets, but I wanna get to Will Hill, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive cast line.
3:46
You can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, star of the Megapod at Beating the Book, and of course, Chris Fallica's Bear Bets podcast empire, not necessarily in that order, at Fox Sports.
3:58
How you doing, Will? Gilly, Kelly, what's going on, guys? Thanks for having me. Thanks for having me. Were you as, uh, excited by that, uh, carom as I was last night? No, no, nothing? Uh, no. No, I wasn't. Yeah. Okay.
4:09
Never mind. I was fine with it. I mean, I'm, I'm happy you're happy, but, uh- Okay... was I as excited? No. No. Of course not. Of course, of course not. That's why I asked.
4:14
I, the inside-the-park home run's always just fun, though. Fantastic. It's just fun. Especially when it's a catcher. Are you kidding me? All right, what do you got in baseball today? Full slate, baby. What do you got?
4:23
Yeah, I got a, a decent number of bets here.
4:26
I took the, uh, I took the Reds here in the minus 140 or so range, Abbott going against Alcantara, and it's funny, uh, the Marlins have been sneaky good here, and if Sandy had pitched like the Sandy they expected, the Sandy of old, the Marlins would be right there for a wild card 'cause they've swung the bats well.
4:42
Uh, Perez and Cabrera have been really good for them. But, uh, Abbott's been outstanding. He's better on the road than at home, but Abbott's been really good here, just named to the All-Star team.
4:51
Uh, Alcantara's just been awful. He's gotten hammered his last two times out, so I get the better team, I get the better starting pitcher, I'm home, and I only have to lay, like, a dollar 40 or so.
4:59
So, uh, I took the Reds. I also took the Mets, uh, and that was a brutal last, brutal loss last night for, uh, for Baltimore. I've always, uh, you know, these last couple weeks I've had one eye kind of on Baltimore.
5:12
Can they make a run? Charlie Morton pitching really well, Rogers pitching well, good lineup. Maybe they get some of these pitchers back.
5:18
You can't have losses like that when you're trying to make up ground like Baltimore is. So, uh, Sano going for Baltimore. His last two starts, 21 base runners and, uh, 13 earned runs, seven in one start, six in another.
5:31
Mets swinging the bats well in that ballpark. Is this that good? Is this good? I think they should be able to score some runs. No. Depends, uh, depends how you define good, I guess. No.
5:37
Uh, so I, I like the Mets on the money line, and if you, it's like minus 155 or so. If that's too rich for your blood, over two and a half first five team total for the Mets is another way to play that.
5:47
I like both of those. And then I did take Red Sox. I'm gonna go with a, a, a unique one here against the Rockies, and they've been scoring a million runs here against Colorado.
5:55
Uh, over four and a half team total for the first seven. So as the home team, as a minus $3 favorite, uh, they're probably not gonna get the ninth at bat, so just shave that off.
6:04
Just go to a first seven team total and you go over four and a half. Santillan has been awful. Red Sox have scored a bunch here against Colorado. So, uh, those are the ones I like.
6:12
I've thought about, uh, uh, I'll call it another play here on Philly, uh, first five money line. Verlander to me has just been a fade.
6:18
It's been a great career, uh, and as you mentioned, Brandon Marsh is still somewhere in San Francisco chasing that ball.
6:24
But, um, I, I think Luzardo over Verlander is a matchup you have to play, although Philly has not swung the bats well.
6:29
There's a few of these teams In baseball here that just, you think of a team and you think of the names on the team, and you think, "Oh, that team's got a good offense," the Rangers, the Padres, the Phillies.
6:39
But then you look at the stats, and these teams struggle to score. The Phillies have not hit the ball well. But Phillies I would play here on the first five in the money line.
6:46
So Mets team total over in the first five, Red Sox first seven team total over, uh, Reds money line, and I'll go Phillies first five money line. Four plays for you.
6:55
Yeah, I don't know if this means anything at all, but I'll just throw it out there. That Phil Cuzzi game, not last night but the night before- Oh...
7:00
where the Phillies were just getting hosed, I didn't think the Phillies were mad enough. Does that, does that make any sense? Like, I, I just, I, it felt they, they did object a little bit, right?
7:12
But not near, I, I would've expected them to go ballistic, like manager tossed, players tossed, and it just felt like they were like...
7:20
And I don't know if that's 'cause they just think Phil Cuzzi's so bad there's no point. [laughs] Maybe that was it, but I did f- it did feel a little lifeless to me. Take that for what it's worth, if it's worth anything.
7:30
Yeah. And I think, I, I do think sometimes in the dugout, uh, you know, I've known this from, from playing baseball and coaching and stuff, it's very hard to tell inside and out.
7:37
So you could say, "Oh, man, that looked like a strike," but you re- it's, bit's impossible just from like a, I don't know, a depth perception standpoint to tell inside and out.
7:44
So you could think you're getting screwed on a call, but it could be off the plate one way or another. It could be over the plate.
7:49
So the, the in and out could be hard to tell from a dugout, but I agree, their reaction did not match the, uh, the crime. And it's just so easy to fix if you're baseball. I don't know why we're still doing this.
7:58
I know I'm not the first person to think of this or, you know, mention this, but it's so easy.
8:02
You could b- you could literally be sitting on your couch and know what's a ball, what's a strike, without even watching the game. The technology's so good. Why do we still have the human element here?
8:11
Uh, it just, it makes no sense, and it is very frustrating, especially when you have player props, pitcher props, and you know, it, uh, you bet under strikeouts and a pitch six inches off the plate's called for a strike, and it beats you on a prop.
8:21
It's just so, so irritating, so easily fixable. It's, it is insane that we, we are still talking about this stuff. It is, it is insane. I mean, it is years, like Will just said.
8:30
Like, I'm not the first person to bring it up. Right. Like, yeah, 'cause the first person was like 11 years ago at this point. But Will- What are we doing?
8:36
But Will also astutely picked up on something else, which is players.
8:40
From, from our vantage point watching TV, it's so clear, but the reason players don't want challenge, a challenge rule in effect is 'cause they're not 100% sure from where they're standing. Mm-hmm.
8:52
So, like, it's this weird thing. Yeah, dugout angle's tough. Yeah, it's this weird thing where they're like, "Oh, I'm mad, but do I really want that responsibility?" Um, couple minutes here, Will.
9:00
Give us, give us an NFL take that is very Will Hill-ish that most people don't have. Uh, yeah, I guess I, I've been planting my flag here on the Arizona Cardinals over.
9:10
And really, the w- the way I like to play it, I, I think the best bang for your buck is Gannon Coach of the Year because, uh, I, I think that first of all, they really addressed their defense.
9:18
They went basically all draft, you know, all defense in their draft here.
9:22
And I, I understand, and when you look at the division, the Rams, the 49ers, but the, the 49ers lost a lot of talent out the door defensively, and that core is older offensively, uh, with McCaffrey and Kittle and Trent Williams.
9:35
So, uh, I, I think there's a path, especially with an easy schedule for Arizona, where they start with the Titans. They get Tyler Shuck and the Saints.
9:43
They get Bryce Young and Carolina, although I think Carolina's might be a little bit better than people think. They get the Colts.
9:48
Uh, they get Darnold behind a, a, a new offensive line, a shaky offensive line with Seattle. There's a path for them to start 4-1, 5-2, something like that.
9:56
And if they ever won the division, instead of taking the plus 450 to win the division, Gannon is going to be on the short list of Coach of the Year candidates 'cause they haven't made the playoffs in a couple years.
10:04
It would be a good story. Uh, I think the offense was seventh in the league last year, yards per play on offense. I think offense tends to translate more year to year than defense.
10:13
I do think the defense, you know, can be better, and they lost a lot of close games, I think three in five in one-score games.
10:17
So to me, Arizona having a really good season, winning 10, 11 games, and Gannon being Coach of the Year at 20 to 1 I think is, uh, i- is a bet I certainly like. It's a good call.
10:25
I talked about the Cardinals yesterday when we were talking NFC West. It, like you said, drafted all defense, free agency, Calais Campbell, Josh Sweat, Tomlinson, free agency.
10:35
Kyler said he's gonna run more this year, that he was hurt last year even when he had his best QBR. And Marvin Harrison can only go up from a pretty ho-hum rookie year.
10:44
And then by the way, I ran into two Cardinals fans [laughs] at the Sports Book last night. Oh, really? Rich and Nick, and Nick, he's like, "Nah, I don't see it," but I love how fans of their own team are so defeatist.
10:53
Will, thank you, man. You're the best, appreciate it. All right, see you guys, thanks. NFL MVP Super Bowl next.
10:58
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:13
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11:22
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11:33
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11:46
One of the 40-plus states where Profit X is available. Uh, definitely check it out. Again, use code VSiN, earn up to 200 in profit cash over your first month at Profit X. Uh, we had tweets @BeatingTheBook.
12:00
Uh, this is, [laughs] I wanna, I'll Ron Burgundy through. Here we go. This is from, uh, Charles in Connecticut, "Literally just did a spit take with my morning coffee with your description of Falica during a horse race.
12:11
Thanks for always being more than just a dull betting show." Oh, you're welcome.
12:14
Chris, Chris is F- Chris Falica deserves all the credit for providing that kind of comedy when he's watching horse racing, uh, betting on it. Primetime Cowboys_Cubs1, oh, get ready for some, uh, skin slurs here.
12:25
Ready for this? "Yo, hey man, I suggest the, uh, the Washington football team's throwback," although he doesn't go WFT, you can imagine what he says when he, when he describes them. He's a Cowboys fan.
12:35
"I suggest the, uh, the, the Washington football team's throwback unis are 100% cotton because cotton breathes. Just ask Costanza.
12:41
The world also awaits Kelly's parlay of first round leaders in all three golf tournaments this week." You hear country club and Kelly, uh, Kate Michael Bidlin loves himself a big parlay. Yes, he does.
12:52
[laughs] Oh, he does. Yeah, that's well done. That caught a lot of fire, your parlay disdain. Uh, touchdown Jaysus. AL- The, the best is when people just play into it. Yes. You know what I mean?
13:01
They're like sending me the like, "You people can win doing this." So I'm like, "Yeah, yeah." I love that. I love the person yesterday, "See people can win parlays," Kelly. Touchdown Jaysus.
13:09
AL Manager of the Year, he says AJ Hinch, way too big of a favorite leading, uh, a weak Central, he thinks. And Detroit most likely team to take foot off the gas with a 15-game lead.
13:19
Schneider 10 to one value with legit chance to win division, and a spot of 40 to one potential value if the Tigers have one bad stretch.
13:27
Um, that's an interesting take on, uh, AJ Hinch and the Tigers taking their, uh, their foot off the gas, to use his, uh, metaphor. Interesting. Hmm. Okay. Uh, and, uh, let's see what else we got here.
13:39
This is from Joe C, "No, seriously, we've had HawkEye for 130 mile per hour serves in tennis for how long, and baseball can't implement similar technology?" Yeah. It's wild. I, I just, the- Yeah...
13:50
the tone in Will's voice was so perfect when he said it, 'cause like I, I'm, I'm tired of talking about it. I'm tired of listening to people talk. Like, why haven't we made this change? It's so absurd. In every sport.
14:01
Yeah. But that's an interesting point about the challenges, right? Players don't want it.
14:05
As much as they, you know, it's like, "Oh, we need to have a, we need to have a, a electronic system, but, but if, but that's the only way we wanna do it. We don't want a challenge system."
14:14
Chance Copper Pot, "Gil, I notice you don't give out tennis totals as much as sides. I do prefer the totals. [laughs] Is there a specific reason for that? Value? Let's go Iga."
14:22
Uh, he's commenting on the fact that we hit a total yesterday, we hit a total this morning, hopefully we hit another total here. Uh, there's, there's no reason for that, although on grass, maybe I should employ that.
14:30
You're 100% right. Um, I've had great success on, on hard courts and clay with sides. No need to change there. Um, but you're right, on grass, perhaps the proof is in the pudding. G- uh, this is a, this is a real treat.
14:43
Uh, Greg Peterson joins us once again on the show to talk baseball with us.
14:46
His middle name is Hoops because he knows college basketball above all, but the man also podcasts about baseball and bets really a whole bunch on it. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
14:57
Greg Peterson, everybody, where you can follow him on Twitter again at, uh, GUnit_81, host of the Baseball Betting Show. How you doing, Greg? Gil, I am doing great.
15:08
We are getting into the last few days before the All-Star break, so prime time, make some money.
15:13
Okay, and for those who are unfamiliar with you, um, who are, you know, are listeners to this show but may not have listened long enough when, when, you know, since the days when you came on regularly, I just wanna again say how much we enjoy having you on the show.
15:29
You are an, you have encyclopedic knowledge in college basketball. You love baseball. The, for those who did listen to you back in the day, we need a few updates.
15:37
One, do you still run 12 miles a day with no sunscreen on? Well, we do employ some scr- sunscreen, or else my head would be completely burnt to a crisp right now- Okay... and that would not be good.
15:52
But absolutely, the running outside still happens, and it happens every single day. 12 miles a day. Dude is a machine. You know, do you know how much better shape I've gotten in in the past year, and I would still die?
16:04
Die. Like literally die. Well, it's also 100 million degrees outside. Yeah.
16:08
And then the other thing, Greg, and forgive me, again, I do this from love, but people who listened to you on this show many years ago will remember that you, in your dating life, were a self-described, this is you talking, quote, "volume shooter," unquote.
16:22
[laughs] Have you settled down? What is your love life like these days? Are you married? What's the, what's the status? Well, we were married, and now we're back out there in the field, but settling down again.
16:34
So- Okay... we're sort of on the winding road, and we shall see where it takes us from here, but we still might be going back into Carmelo Anthony mode. [laughs] Okay. Thank you, Greg. I sa- He's never gonna rule it out.
16:47
[laughs] I ask you that all out of love. Thank you for the update. I th- I think the listeners will be thrilled to know that. [laughs] Oh, man. What they'll also wanna know is, is your baseball plays today. Full slate.
16:57
I throw it to you. Where do we start this morning?
17:01
Oh, absolutely, and we're gonna go into Carmelo Anthony mode here as well because we've got ourselves a great slate, and this is one, one that has been moving around a little bit, but still seeing a lot of plus 140 out there on the Milwaukee Brewers.
17:13
I'm gonna take a shot on fading Tyler Glasnow in his first start off the injured list in about two months. José Quintana hasn't necessarily been a whole lot to write home about.
17:21
Um, he's gotten the job done relatively effectively for the Brewers. Field independent is about a point higher than the ERA.
17:28
Not necessarily too much of a strikeout guy, but for Glasnow, coming off the injured list, he made three starts over at AAA Oklahoma City for the Dodgers.
17:37
831 ERA, very much less than impressive, and the Dodgers are on a five-game losing streak. You don't find that very often, and Brewers have really been able to heat up.
17:46
Not necessarily a ton of power out of this Brewers team, but they do a nice job playing station-to-station baseball, giving that sort of a plus number and an eight and a half.
17:53
I like the over and I like the money line in terms of the, one of the earliest games that we'll find. Yeah. Br- brief aside, how about Mizejewski against yesterday for the Brewers? So he gives up the lead off- The Miz...
18:03
a amazing. Le- lead off homer to Ohtani, then he's like, "Okay, that's behind me. Here's 12 Ks in your face, Dodgers." That was just amazing. He is, y- y- you would bet him for Rookie of the Year in the National League?
18:15
Yes? I just don't know how you bet on anyone else right now. Yeah. He has been absolutely incredible, so I'd be certainly betting on him. Okay, so over, you said, in the Dodgers-Brewers game, yes, to start?
18:27
Over on the Brewers money line, yep. O- okay, over and the Brewers at plus 141 on the money line here in a, uh- Yes... day game at American Family Field in Milwaukee. What's next?
18:37
How about if we go with another day game?
18:39
This is the Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies Aceves Lizardo has an ERA north of four, but a lot of it is because of two really bad starts he had where he gave up a combined 20 runs.
18:50
Like a lot of people forget, through his first 11 starts, he was looking like a fringe Cy Young candidate, and then things went completely sideways for him.
18:58
Going against a Giants unit that has been a little bit rough with the geared toward offense. And then on the, uh, Giants side of things, for Justin Verlander, he has not gotten a win this year.
19:07
I feel like he's pitched a little bit better than this. And for the Phillies, guys not named Kyle Schwarber not necessarily generating a lot of offense.
19:13
Right now I'm seeing that total going from an eight to an eight and a half. I wrote this up for the VSiN website at an eight. I like that eight and a half under.
19:20
And with the Giants being right around about a plus 115 or so, like that Giants money line, too.
19:25
Yeah, Le- Lizardo's, uh, splits against left-handed batters, his K rate is, like, 45%, something like that, uh, for the Philadelphia Phillies. Um, okay. Next, what do you got?
19:39
Next we've got Antonio Senzatela and a total of nine. Antonio Senzatela's giving up north of 13 and a half hits per nine innings. Like, just think of your favorite baseball team.
19:50
If they get 13 hits in a game, you're calling it a banner day. That, for Antonio Senzatela, is a Wednesday afternoon.
19:56
[laughs] And Lucas Giolito has been better for the Boston Red Sox, but still have a few question marks there.
20:02
That total of nine out there in Fedway is just too low for me, and I do think that the Boston Red Sox completely dominate this game. I was able to get that run line more in the neighborhood of minus 145.
20:12
We're starting to get a little bit too high at a minus 150, so I would lay off a little bit more on that run line now that it's starting to creep up, but I do like that total over.
20:20
I think that Senzatela just continues to give up hits. Greg, why do the Rockies just keep throwing out the Senzatelas and the Freelons of the world year after year? I mean, is this...
20:31
This is the worst franchise in, in baseball, isn't it? In every way. Yeah, the, the,
20:36
it, the ownership and the front office just has no idea what they're doing, and that albatross of a Chris Bryant contract, that and the Anthony Rendon deal, two worst deals in all of baseball. Brutal.
20:48
All right, give us one more. What do you got? One more, we've got ourselves the Pirates and the Kansas City Royals, total of eight and a half. Pirates averaging less than three runs per game away from home.
20:58
Royals averaging three runs per game at home. And Chris with a K Bubic has been absolutely superb, sub 250 ERA. Love the way that he's rocking.
21:07
And Bailey Falter, in 11 out of his last 12 starts, three runs or fewer allowed. Two top 10 bullpens in terms of ERA ever since May 1st. So I'd just take a look at this total, and it's too high.
21:17
And if I had to play it right now, I'd be looking at the Pirates at a plus 160, just getting too high with how bad this Royals offense is. So Pirates and the unders. Greg, totally appreciate it.
21:29
Uh, when's the next baseball betting show? You do it daily? Every single day, midnight Pacific, 3:00 AM Eastern, wherever you get your podcasts. Love it, and may you find love again, Greg. May you find love again.
21:41
Thank you so much. Thank you, sir, and I think that we hopefully have found it. [laughs] Okay, there's ano- an update to an update coming back right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN.
21:51
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
22:06
And speaking of Circa Resort Casino, it lives on. The All In Summer hotel package at Circa, my goodness, is this great. $400 all-in price through September 4th. We got you covered.
22:20
Two-night hotel stay, that includes resorts fees and taxes, $100 dining credit, $100 beverage credit, and a daybed at Stadium Swim.
22:28
Let me repeat that, Kelly, Bill, and for those who missed it, 'cause we have run into numerous people- Yes... who have already taken advantage of this, no joke. $400, that's it. Not $400 and a penny, $400 all-in price.
22:40
Two-night hotel stay, $100 dining credit, $100 beverage credit, daybed at Stadium Swim. Now through September 4th at CircaLasVegas.com. So we've run into multiple people. Uh, I've had a friend utilize this as w- as well.
22:53
I think the, basically the reaction has been the same from everybody, and it's like, it's like Steve Fezzik with Free Play. Yes. It's like, "Why wouldn't I use this?" That's exactly right.
23:01
Like, it's so obvious, why wouldn't I do this? Yeah. You use the word "utilize" a lot, by the way, you notice that? You could probably substitute the word "use." Like too much?
23:08
You could probably use, substitute the word "use" in every time you use it. Like air check, air check that one? Yeah, yeah. Okay. It's a good note. Good point there. Thanks, Gil. No, English.
23:14
Everybody loves an English teacher. No, it's a good note. Yeah. We, we all have crutches, words we use too often. We get tweets that beat to the book. "Utilize" too often.
23:21
[laughs] Brooklyn Bets, who suggested a minus 190 on the Blue Jays raised to 10, month of July is too short. Uh, Michael Montesano says, "Yeah, but I'd hate to dead heat that."
23:31
And Brooklyn Bets goes, "Good point, forget, forgot to consider the dead heat when I fired, but still like it." Uh, Pat Monteforte, "Is this the ho-" Oh, he's, he's referring to a horse for, uh, Falica. Um,
23:42
this is JasonH11, "Run, you donkey." No, that's not what he says.
23:45
[laughs] Jesse Welch, "My new favorite segment is Kelly finding a market to handicap and then Gil just absolutely exposing these huge books for robbing ignorant bettors blind."
23:55
That's, that's kind of a thing we're doing now. ND Money, "Some of the network continue to say," oh, some of, or our network, Kelly, listen to this, "continue to say Wimbleton," with a T.
24:04
I might have heard it said that way too. Speaking of English, "I've tried to correct them, but my voice is too small apparently. Perhaps you could help sway them.
24:10
Wimbledon, uh, Wimbleton [laughs] hasn't been used since the 1700s," he says. Um, you know what that's the opposite of? Um, people don't say the word "important" anymore. They substitute the first T with a D sound.
24:24
You heard this? Like Kaitlan Collins on CNN, or all these, like those important. Everybody says that now. Really? There's no D in important. I haven't noticed that one. Mm, I've noticed it. Drives me crazy.
24:35
Chris Heath, "With your golf, with those outright prices, that sounds like all Kelly can bet, otherwise he'll be overexposed." What's Chris Heath talking about there?
24:42
Um- Would you like to wrap, would you like to wrap up your golf talk here before we get to Ben? Sure, yeah. Well, let's run through. Maybe, uh, maybe Benny's got a couple, uh, to get to.
24:49
So yeah, Ludwig- Bobby Mac, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns on the outrights. That's where we're going. Big thing with Burns for me, I've kind of been staying away from him for the most part this year.
25:00
The putting's been awesome, but he's finally putting together the on the, uh, off the tee and approach, uh, stuff that was a little shaky last year and beginning part of this year.
25:09
Fourth on approach, uh, in this field last 16 rounds. So I, I really like Burns this week actually. Um, outrights, uh, for him, top five and a top 20 I played, uh, on him.
25:19
And then the top 20 market, uh, Tommy Fleetwood plus money. Uh, this guy has played this course, played this course well about a billion times.
25:27
If you actually wanna play an outright on Tommy Fleetwood, I, I, I won't hate you 'cause as we discussed yesterday, it's not the United States, so he could possibly win. [laughs] He could win. Could possibly win.
25:37
Um, Max Graziano. Love Graziano this week. I almost d- I almost went with an outright play. I think I'm gonna be safe though, safer, and just go with the top 20 on him. Almost got home with him a couple weeks ago.
25:49
Uh, but gaining on a off the tee and on approach the last five events. He is long off the tee. I think he, his game should fit this course well.
25:56
He finished tee 21 here just a year ago, um, when his game was not nearly as good. So like Graziano this week. And then Harry Hall was a late add for me.
26:05
Uh, not very long off the tee, was a little concerned with that, but one of the better putters out there. Um, got talked into that on long shots. So gonna play plus 220 on the top 20 there.
26:14
And the matchup's really quick. Bennion over Sungjae Im, who's lost his swing completely it seems, and then Jake Knapp over Haotong Li. There you go.
26:22
Jake Knapp actually rated out very highly for me, but that's, I'm just gonna stay with matchups. Genesis Scottish Open from Kelly.
26:27
By the way, Kevin Ryan tweets in, "Gil, can you send me Kelly's Twitter handle as I seem to have lost it? I want to send him all my MLB parlays for the day." Oh, please, yeah, I will gladly rate- No worries...
26:36
every parlay, yep. Uh, Ben Wilson joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on the old Twitter machine @ben_wilson_1.
26:44
Vsin host and play-by-play broadcaster and noted Iga Swiatek hater joining us now. How you doing, Ben? What do you gotta say for yourself? Yeah, no, I'm, I'm great.
26:54
I, I, I like to r- I like to remind people that the original, uh, the original hate for Iga came from a simple, uh, a simple line that Kelly can corroborate when I was, uh, filling in for you, Gil, a couple summers ago.
27:04
Basically just saying on non-clay court surfaces, I felt like Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek should be priced a little bit closer to even, and that, uh, the, the army then took as, uh, "Iga will never win a tennis match.
27:15
She'll never win another point in her career," which I, I appreciate- [laughs]... uh, how this has continued. And- Yes... uh, and here we are now in 2025, and Iga's, uh, having her bre- best grass court season ever.
27:24
Ever. Ben, Ben, are you accusing me of blowing something out of proportion just to get- No... a reaction from the audience? No. Come on. No, never. Never. That's exactly how that went down though. Of course.
27:33
Ben said one line, and I was like, "Oh, he hates her." Uh, Jannik Sinner and Ben Shelton- Of course... by the way, headed to a first set tiebreaker.
27:41
I don't believe there has been a break here, and this is what I expected here on the over 39 and a half. But I'm thinking for that over, we probably want Shelton to win this tiebreaker, probably.
27:52
Um, do- Yeah, that's looking good early... do, do you have a play, uh, Ben, in, I wanna see, the, has the Djokovic match started? It has not. Do you have a play on- No, not yet... Djokovic-Cobolli?
28:01
Do you have a play on that before we- Uh, I-... head to the women's? I didn't. I will say quickly, I, I have the Shelton, uh, not only over, but also I have Shelton plus one and a half sets.
28:11
Uh, just, you know, it's interesting how you talk about some of these derivative markets, and this, this goes across all sports, but sometimes you have a big market move on just a, a straight money line, right?
28:21
And we saw the market just absolutely pound Shelton from the time that line opened till the time it closed.
28:26
But sometimes these secondary markets don't get adjusted at all, and I noticed the Shelton line, I mean, it stayed plus one and a half sets, plus 110 for hours [laughs] as the market was crashing, which is just incorrect if you're comparing how the line was moving.
28:40
Um, so I have that as well. You can, you know, the live markets, this is the last time you can, you can bet this, but, uh, bef- before this first set wraps up.
28:47
Uh, I mean, Sinner has not been able to do anything so far on the Shelton serve, n- not make any in- inroads, as it were, Gil. So I, I still would look to get in that, on that in the next couple minutes, um, if you can.
28:57
I didn't play anything in the Djokovic match. It's, you know, such a ridiculously high favorite, and, uh, I would just caution people who are like, "Oh, I've never heard of this Cobolli guy.
29:06
Let me just bet Djokovic in straight sets minus 125."
29:09
Uh, we've seen Djokovic do the thing where he almost, I wouldn't say intentionally, but it's like he almost needs something to get himself riled up, and he'll, he'll drop a first set. [laughs] So true.
29:18
It happened against Alex de Minaur.
29:19
It's almost like, you know, he, he just wants it as like a, I don't know, some sort of sycophantic, uh, w- way of getting through these matches where he does it, and then all of a sudden Djokovic turns it on, uh, wins in four.
29:30
So I would just express a little caution.
29:32
I am disappointed in a lot of the sports books for, for the books who are hanging these odds on who would come out of the top half and bottom half, that they just decided not to throw up a men's price on the top half because of the Sinner injury.
29:46
Which it's like, sure, like, take low limits on it, but to just not throw that up is, um, is really disappointing because Djokovic I, I think would've been a great bet there, um, given the uncertainties around Sinner.
29:57
Even the fact that Shelton without a Sinner injury would still have likely been live in that match.
30:02
Uh, but Djokovic would've definitely been a great play before this match to, uh, to come out of the top half, and you gotta think he's, uh, he is by far the, of the four remaining in that top half, he is the favorite, uh, overwhelmingly so, especially with, um, how Sinner has looked awfully compromised.
30:16
I'm with you, man. Are we booking or are we not, right? Put, put it up. Let, let people at least- Sure... bet a little bit on it. Um, what about tomorrow?
30:23
Now we have the, we have the two, so here's how, the schedule goes like this. It's the two ladies semis tomorrow, then it's the two men's semis on Friday.
30:33
So the two ladies semis tomorrow, we don't have the line yet on Swiatek-Bencic. I'm gonna guess that Iga's north of a $2 favorite. We do have the Sabalenka line, where Sabalenka's exactly that. She's minus 244.
30:47
[clears throat] The American, Amelisova, plus 193 on the comeback. The game's line is four. The total's 21 and a half. Do you have a play on that?
30:57
Uh, I will go, I'll look over the total in the Sabalenka, uh, Anisimova match. I'm, I'm, I'm staying, I'm not, I'm not, uh, I'm not gonna touch the Iga matches here, as much as, uh, as much as she, she's looked awesome.
31:08
Um, I mean, Bencic is certainly not your standard unseeded player in the, in the semifinals, you would say, having been a Olympic gold medalist in the past.
31:16
But, you know, it's, it's, I think, the state now of the women's game, I mean, I don't think anybody is f- is, you know, is afraid of any single player on any surface.
31:23
And even though Sabalenka, you know, I've, I've kind of been beating the drum for her over the past couple years, you know, the pricing has now gotten to the point where it is really aggressive on Sabalenka, and she is, should be the favorite.
31:34
She is rightful to be, uh, you know, minus 140 now to win it all. But you think about the paths on some of these matches, and it, it seems like she still has a dip at some point i- i- in the best of three sets.
31:45
Um, there's gonna be a dip. She got really fortunate. I mean, that third set was just, like, you know, watching a, the, against Siegemund, was like watching a car crash you just couldn't keep your eyes off of.
31:53
Like, no- nobody wanted to win the match, and eventually Sabalenka just kind of backed her way into winning the final three games there, 6-4 in the third.
32:00
Uh, so this is a big moment here for Anisimova, whose game we always figured would translate well to this surface as a, you know, obviously a tall in stature, power serving sort of player.
32:10
I definitely think she can hang here with Sabalenka, and it's sort of a simi- similar strategy I had with the, uh, with the match today, the Bencic match, where I just, and Drevo, where I took over 21 and a half thinking, you know, the way the, the serving matches up, like a 7-5, 7-6 match wouldn't shock me.
32:25
Even if that's the case for Sabalenka, that still gets you over, and I'll, I'll apply the same logic here for that match tomorrow. And, uh, Kelly, it just showed me the price. I guessed correctly.
32:33
Iga minus 275 favorite in her match- There you go... against Bencic tomorrow. Ben, thank you, man, as always. Appreciate it. Good seeing you. You got it. Ben Wilson, everybody.
32:45
The non-stormy category, most famous person to ever come out of here. Benny and the Bets. Coming back with JBT next.
32:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:06
Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Bittling, everybody. What's up? [laughs] What happened to you there? Wow.
33:16
[laughs] I don't know. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Zachary Singleton letting us know that Iga up to minus 315 now, uh, against Bencic at BetOnline. Steaming.
33:26
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Cars can definitely carom as well," to the question of if only, do, do only baseballs carom. You know, I think other things carom besides baseball.
33:34
Uh, Tagrit, hope I'm pronouncing that right, "John Schneider as manager of the year does not seem like a good investment." I'm with you, Tagrit.
33:41
Uh, he says, "I watch most Jays games and have seen enough mismanagement from Schneider to know f- to know how fortunate the Blue Jays have been. Every called-up pitcher and hitter has overperformed to the extreme."
33:52
That, that's just my point as well. Um, great for the Blue Jays fans, again, and Blue Jays backers here in the month of July. Eight and O out of the chute.
34:01
Um, but they got tougher competition coming up, and again, if you look at the, I shouldn't say again, 'cause we didn't mention this earlier, but if you look at the, um, the standings in terms of the run differential,
34:14
which is, you know, again, according to Bill James' Pythagorean theorem, where, what your win percentage ought to be. It's tried and true. Runs produced, runs prevented.
34:23
What your win, you know, what your win percentage ought to be. The Blue Jays have a plus 21 w- uh, run differential, and they're 54 and 38.
34:34
The Yankees have a plus 102 run differential, and they're 50 and 41, three and a half games back. By the way, the Rays and the Red Sox also have better run differentials than do the Toronto Blue Jays.
34:46
Now, I'm not saying, hey, look, they've already banked the win, so there's nothing we can do about that.
34:50
But the point is, can you project them forward being so awesome that John Schneider at 10 to one ought to be a Manager of the Year bet? And I would agree with the, uh, the tweet that I'd be more skeptical. Um,
35:02
and then there's, uh, do we have one more here? Or is that the end? That's the end on that. Um, let's recap all the best bets from today's show, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:10
Every host, every guest, every sport recapped at the end of every show. Uh, I have the two tennis plays today. We already hit the under on the, uh, Swiatek-Samsanova match.
35:20
Under 21 and a half as Iga won that in straight sets, um, by the, uh, by the result of 6-2, 7-5, so that got home. We have the over in this Shelton-Sinner match that is currently going on, over 39 and a half.
35:35
It does not appear that either Ben Shelton or Jannik Sinner are gonna be able to break the opponent, which is kind of the handicap here. The only thing is, if you go 13, 13, and 13, you only get to 39.
35:47
So Shelton now, with Sinner having won the first set, Shelton has to win one of these tiebreakers if, in fact, we continue to get to them.
35:55
So right now, and by the way, Djokovic and, uh, Cobolli on serve i- or early in the, uh, first set of that match. Kelly, by the lawn, what do you got? Yeah, a couple, uh, NBA win totals to review.
36:06
Hawks over 46 and a half. Raptors over 34 and a half. I am in on the Timberwolves 15 to one to win the Summer League, and a little CFL action for you this week. And Hamilton laying the four and a half.
36:19
Alexander Hamilton. [laughs] By the way, my Mariners 20 to one is not up there, but it still exists. We'll see if they can make some, make up some ground. Will Hill's best bets. Will was on earlier.
36:29
Full day of Major League Baseball. He's got the Reds on the money line today at minus 140. He's got the Mets' first five team total over two and a half runs.
36:37
Phillies' first five against the Giants minus 145, the old fade of Justin Verlander. And the Red Sox, how about this, Kelly? The old F7 bet Team total over four and a half. So I bet a lot of F3s, but I don't bet any F7s.
36:55
But Will- Yeah, I'm still trying, still trying to figure out what degree Will might have just been screwing with me a little bit. I- I don't think he's screwing with you. No, he's betting them.
37:02
He's betting these every day? [laughs] Um, I don't know if he's bet them every day, but he's betting them.
37:05
Jonathan Gannon was his, uh, coach of the year play in the NFL, the, uh, Cardinals' Jonathan Gannon, coach of the year, 20 to one.
37:12
Will says if you're gonna play, if you're gonna be bullish on the Cardinals, that's the way to play it. Jonathan Gannon, coach of the year, 20 to one. And then Greg Hoops Peterson came in firing.
37:21
Brewers plus 141 a day after the, uh, Miziorowski show. He's got the Brewers as a dog against the Dodgers. He's also got the over in that game. Dodgers, Brewers early game in Milwaukee today, over eight and a half.
37:32
Phillies, Giants also a day game. He's going under at Oracle, under eight and a half after that awesome inside the park walk-off from Patrick Bailey yesterday. He's also got the Giants in the game at plus 115.
37:45
So both in the Brewers and the, and the, uh, Phillies, th- both in the Dodgers, Brewers games and the Phillies, Giants games, he's got a total and he's got the dog. Over in the Dodgers games, under in the Giants game.
37:55
And Rockies, Red Sox over nine, also a total from Greg. So three totals and two dogs. And check vsyn.com 'cause I don't even know if we, uh, got to all of Greg's, like- Really?
38:06
Yeah, [laughs] I don't know that we, we- Oh, we did. We did. You sure? Okay. Yeah, yeah. All right. Yeah, we got to all of them on, when he was on. And we also got to his, uh, his update on his love life in addition.
38:14
That we did. Yeah, got all that. Um, it's all brought to you by G Bank, by the way, all the bets, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Once again offering up the, uh, the trifecta.
38:23
Well, not just G Bank alone, but, uh, on the trifecta you got G Bank, you got VSiN, and of course you got First Bet.
38:31
All you need to do is open a G Bank Visa Signature credit card for the $500 trifecta in the first 90 days, deposit and play through $1,000 at First Bet to trigger the $500 trifecta.
38:40
You'll receive $200 in cash back rewards on your G Bank Visa Signature credit card. First Bet will give you a $100 deposit match.
38:46
VSiN completes the trifecta with a free VSiN Pro subscription through October 31st, a $200 value. That's the $500 trifecta from G Bank, First Bet, and VSiN. Head to vsyn.com/gbank. That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank.
38:57
This one-time promotion is limited to customers opening a new account in response to this offer and will not apply to requests to convert existing accounts. Apply today. Terms and conditions apply.
39:07
Do we get, do we have the shot of the, uh, of the, uh, Patrick Bailey ball off the, uh, right field wall there at Oracle? Do we have that? I believe we do. I think we have that. Do we have that?
39:15
I think Larry got that sorted out. Uh- 'Cause I, I can't... There it is. Look at that. Yeah. You see the ball right there on the, on the concrete part that is sort of angled upwards.
39:24
I'm not sure if it bounced off that part of it, the flat part of the concrete, or the top of the bricks, but either way, uh, you see, uh, Castellanos there, the, uh, right fielder trying to navigate it, but it was Brandon Marsh from center field who completely overplayed it.
39:40
And once again, every Giants fan watching [laughs] that ball in the air was like, "Oh boy, here we go," 'cause we've seen this before, Angel Pagan against the Rockies, uh, over a decade ago.
39:48
It's not a great angle of Ca- uh, Castellanos though either. Like what do you, what do you, what are you gonna do there, bro? Well, Castellanos has no shot at it coming from right field.
39:54
[laughs] Yeah, like what are you, what are you gonna do there? Yeah, it was up to Marsh to really play it correctly, and he, he did not. Did we, did you get to all your golf by the way?
40:01
Did you feel like you rushed through that? Did you wanna- No. Uh, couple notes that we'll- Yeah... one, one thing, did wanna mention JVT's Summer League bets, uh, too. Thunder, Grizzlies, Hawks shop around.
40:11
He's got 14 to one on the Thunder, 12 to one on the Grizzlies, 80 to one on the Hawks.
40:15
Did feel the, the, I'm glad you brought it back to golf 'cause the, not necessarily a bet, but, um, I talked about this week not really being the same sort of link style, qui- uh, classic link style golf that you're gonna see at most Open Championships, and that's important to keep in mind.
40:30
The one thing though that does remain the same is, well, what about the weather? Um, r- as of right now, this is, I haven't made any first round leader bets. I don't know that I'm going to.
40:40
As of right now, Thursday looks like it's gonna be, also known as tomorrow, uh, looks like it's gonna be the day most impacted. Wind gusts were up to like mid-20s when I checked on this, this morning.
40:51
Um, looked like earlier in the round, so maybe later round plays could be good to target for first round leaders, but check back on that, uh, as close as you can, uh, before they tee off tonight actually, uh, if you're, you're in Pacific Time.
41:04
Uh, that and the rest of the weekend though, really calm. It, it, it was Friday, Saturday, Sunday as of this morning looks like it is gonna be, uh, no rain and very, very light wind.
41:15
So should be scorable conditions as well if you're looking for DFS or any of those kind of props. And no chance you're staying up for this once again? No chance? No. No. No. Open Championship you will?
41:26
Yeah, for, I, I wi- I will, I mean, I don't know what you do for Wimbledon, but it's, it's definitely stre- a stretch when I'm going to sleep and when I'm waking up. More on the b- more on the waking up end.
41:36
It's, it's interesting you ask that because for some reason I find myself staying up in the dead of night for the Australian Open more than I do for Wimbledon. Yeah.
41:46
So the more extreme it gets, the more likely I am to do that. It's also like once we get into the weekend, it's, uh, are my guys in play? [laughs] Right. 100%. That always matters, right?
41:56
By the way, speaking of which, for the Open Championship, which is next week, golf's final major of the year, you have made two bets, Morikawa and Xander. Yeah, Morikawa and Xander. F- Xander at 30, Morikawa 33 to one.
42:09
Um, I forget who we got the tweet from yesterday [laughs] a friend's whole, friend's bet, uh, Morikawa, but the, that was such a numbers play.
42:16
If you have, if you're, have access to Caesars, they still had it up as of yesterday, 33 to one. I thought that was a really long number, uh, on Collin Morikawa for the Open Championship.
42:26
So yeah, that's, uh, like, liked that number. That was a long one, and then Xander, Xander at 30 I thought was way too long too. Um, he is 25 or shorter most books. I think even 25 to one's not a bad bet on Xander.
42:38
Um, Keith Fortier on Twitter reminds us that rebounds in basketball Carom as well. Of course they do. Mm. Yeah, yeah. Carom's got a lot of names. It's not a broad daylight situation. No, you're right. You're right.
42:47
You're right. No, no. It's got, got other uses. Um- Good call... still on serve, uh, early in the Djokovic-Koboli match. Uh, still on serve second set for Sinner and Shelton as those go on.
42:58
And again, uh, I'll have my tennis picks for tomorrow at vsyn.com/picks.
43:03
Uh, every, every guest, every host that we, uh, have on the, on not only this show but on the entire network, subscribers get them at vsyn.com/picks.
43:12
And then a guy like Jensen's case, Jensen Lewis at By The Books, he's firing like 20, 20 plays a day it seems like. That's right.
43:18
I'm not sure if he gives them all out on By The Books, but he's got all his plays for instance at vsyn.com/picks. So for CLV purposes alone, beyond whether they cash, worth it to be a subscriber of course.
43:31
Money Moves is next, followed by Prop Points, JBT, Stormy standing by, and Joy from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat rock music]
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