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Jul 9, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 9, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | July 9, 2026
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45:11
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Transcript
0:00
[static crackles] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
[upbeat rock music] Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel o- 158.
0:20
I'm laughing because I had a pregnant pause there at the beginning, and I think the crew was like, "Eh, what just, what just happened there? Did we finally lose him?" Uh, no.
0:26
Pristine audio and video here in San Francisco. I just forgot what hour it was of the show. Uh, it is Gil Alexander in San Francisco. It doesn't matter that I'm not in studio. You know who is.
0:37
With Kelly Tilghman, Bill Krackomberger unscripted. Let's go. [upbeat rock music] Oh, yeah. Get it. Billy, good morning.
0:54
Hey, good morning, guys. How you doing, man? Good, good, good. You're in, uh... My heart's in San Francisco. I left my heart and Gil in San Francisco. [laughs] That's right. I'll, I'll be back. Yeah.
1:05
By the way, let me just say this. Go ahead. Uh, our buddy Nifty, while you guys are at dinner, he's so nice to, like, call me in the middle of dinner just to, like, make me feel part of it.
1:15
So shout out to, [laughs] to our guy Nifty. It's very sweet of him. He's such a sweet guy. Yeah, he's just looking for you to leave tip money. [laughs] Somehow over the phone, Venmo. Venmo it to someone, yeah.
1:27
Yeah, he's just looking- That's right. [laughs] Yeah, he can't help himself. That's probably what it is. Yeah. Yeah. Uh- All right, well, y- you come in firing...
1:33
you know, we ate at Igo last night, which i- is good, but it ain't Carbone. Mm-hmm. No. [laughs] I'll just tell you. It ain't Carbone. It's beautiful. It's actually beautiful, though. It's right on the water there,
1:43
uh, at the, the fountains. I say water like we're like it's, like it's a Atlantic Oce- ocean Well, we all do. Yeah, it's right on the water. Yeah. [laughs] But, um, yeah.
1:51
So we ate there last night, and, um, it, it, yeah, a- and Nifty called you because we've been, we've been having these, um, weekly, uh, meals. And, uh, as a matter of fact, Gil, I'll tell you where I ate on Monday night.
2:03
Uh, Monday night I ate, or Sunday night, might have been Sunday night. Sunday or Monday, one of those two nights, I ate at Mother Wolf. Have you eaten there? Oh. Have we talked about this? Yes, absolutely, yes.
2:14
Well- At, uh, at Fontainbleau. Right. Packed. Always packed. It's so packed. There's more people in Mother Wolf than there is in the casino. Oh, yeah, not even close. It's true.
2:23
[laughs] Now, there's, Kelly, do you like that there? Have you been there? Oh, yeah, yeah, I've eaten there, I'm gonna guess four or five times. It's amazing.
2:29
One, one of the best, one of my favorite new restaurants in town. I, I did something that's unbelievable. I wrote the, the waiter's name down. Of course I don't... Uh, Jonathan. So this waiter name's Jonathan.
2:37
He was so good. He's like, "I could do something special for you here. I can go with what I like." And I said, "You know what?" I looked over the menu. I said, "You know what? There's nothing on here I wouldn't like."
2:49
Mm-hmm. I said, "Go ahead." Oh my God, he, he did such a great job that I'm going... A- a- and he picked, like, cheap items. You know, there's two of us.
2:58
I know it sounds like it's expensive, $200, but that's not expensive. This is a $200 per, per person place, which- Right... Carbone, the Mother Wolf, it's, like, 200 a head. Um, it was 200 bucks for the meal,
3:11
and we ate like we were going to the electric chair. So- [laughs]... you know, we had so much food, it was unbelievable. [laughs] And, uh- Yeah... no, he, he, he, uh, brought out so many things that are on the...
3:20
Now, I love the zucchini flowers. I'm so glad he picked that as part of it. So he picked that. He picked the bruschetta, which was, that was unbelievable. It was so good.
3:30
And the, the, um, the entrees were great, the, the pasta. He had a short rib pasta. I mean, there was so many things he picked.
3:37
Then, a- and, and I said, "Listen, no desserts, though," because I, I, I can't have a lot of sugar, at night especially. And he, he's like, "Well, I gotta have you try something." Oh, I know what happened.
3:47
He brought out this strawberry- Mm-hmm... I don't even know what it was. It, it, it, it, I just had a taste of it, but my, my, um, my, my buddy had the rest. And, um, it, he had to bring out these donuts.
3:58
I said, "You can't," I haven't had a donut in two years. [laughs] Yep. And, but- You can't bring out the donuts... but, like, these, these fresh-made hot donuts. Yeah. And I just had a taste of it. Oh.
4:05
But, I mean, anyway, that restaurant is definitely one of the top restaurants in this town. That chef has an interesting story from California.
4:15
I think someone came in and then liked the food so much, he's like, "We gotta o- we gotta open up more of these," and put up money. And, um, I think there's, like, four or five of them around the country.
4:24
Maybe, maybe even around the world. It might be international even, so. But- Yeah... the good news is- You, you said, but-... that- Yeah... I, um,
4:32
so I, I, I know someone over there, and they had some- they had a promotion, um, over there which I played and lost. Wow, someone a- admitted losing? Whoa. I got, yeah, I got whacked at video poker there. What?
4:43
They have 100 play video poker, got whacked. [laughs] So the good news is next few months we'll be visiting Mother Wolf at least once every two weeks for free. [laughs] Oh, there you go. Let's go. Oh, man. Yeah.
4:55
No, but- Very nice... but, um, yeah, they, they had a promotion there where every 20,000 points, it's on their website. Yeah, I saw it, too. Yeah, every 20,000 points you get a, um, a, a free bonus of 500 to 2,500.
5:06
But it's, um, like, like I said, though, it could be very volatile. Mm-hmm. You could, it could be very swing-ish. You can get whacked. So, um, I, I've been doing really good at my life at these kind of promotions.
5:18
This is the first one I played this year 'cause of this new tax rule.
5:22
Um, but now I have room to play, uh, because, you know, you have to, you can only write off so much of your losses, so, uh, it, it's gonna be a difficult accounting year.
5:30
Usually I have a lot of, a ton of tickets from video poker throughout the year. I don't have a single jackpot this year, so, uh- Hmm... that, it, it, it's gonna be an interesting year. Uh, but I did play that.
5:43
I usually don't choose to play them because of, uh, of that reason. But anyway, good restaurant there.
5:48
Now, Gil, here, uh, let me just tell you something I don't like, and I've never talked about this before, and I don't know how people are gonna take it, but, h- here's what I don't like, two things when I go to dinner.
6:00
And, Gil, uh, this has nothing to do with you. [laughs] I don't like people- [laughs] I wanna lead it. Well, listen, 'cause I'm going- Oh, no...
6:09
I'm getting the comp or I'm paying, and I don't like people who under-order. Don't be under-ordering- Oh, it's definitely not me... and then want stuff- Yeah... off my plate. Now, I don't mind- Oh, yeah...
6:19
sharing things- Right... but get yourself a meal. Don't just pick. My mother used to say, Italian, "He just might wanna pick a little bit." You know? D- now, here's the, here's the worst thing.
6:30
I don't like people who over-order- [laughs]... and want to-take-to-go bags. [laughs] Oh, that's so gauche. On your comp? I know. Yeah. Yeah. So they just wanna over-order, a- and, and- Yeah...
6:42
it's like their last meal in their life, and, you know, they, they don't even touch the entree. Now, I'm not saying, trust me, uh, Gil, you haven't been involved in any of these type of dinners. No.
6:51
But- I'm right in the pocket, baby... but- Right in the middle... I am not a guy that, I'm not a to-go person. I, I hate leftovers, and imagine me saying that growing up, like, right?
6:59
My, you know, my family, the leftover was great. The next day- Mm-hmm... it's better. And, and this is what is the rumor out there. Um, I'm just not a fan of putting things in the microwave. I'm not a microwave guy.
7:10
But I don't like people that over-order. Now, I had dinner recently with a guy that can buy and sell me many, many times over, and I took him a second night, only because Gil wasn't here. Gil doesn't even know it.
7:23
He, Gil wasn't here, so I had to fill a fourth chair, and, uh- [laughs]... he's a really nice guy. I love him to death. Both nights he ordered an entree and took it home. Wow. Wow. A- and better, better yet,
7:35
a- and I'm gonna make fun of him. He's gonna see this video. He ordered a dessert to go. [laughs] Oh my gosh. I am gonna kill... He ordered a- Now, wait, wait a minute. I need a clarification.
7:45
Is he ordering a second entree to go, or it's just his initial entree to go? No, he ordered his entree and took it home- Uh-huh... because he ordered a lot of app- we ordered a lot of appetizers.
7:55
So- Well, he didn't finish it and took it home? Uh, he had a, a bite. A bite, okay. A bite to make it look- Yeah, so basically a full bite... a bite to make it look like he- So- Yeah... so let's be honest.
8:03
He's taking the shot, and he just can't eat it, is basically what's happening. How can you order- That's what I think is happening... a second dessert and take it home? Oh, can you put a slice of pie- Well-... in a bag?
8:12
No, you're right. That part's bad. He just wants another meal. Can't do that. Oh, boy. Can't do that. I, I tell you- Yeah...
8:17
the other part for me, though, Bill, I don't know, speak for you, the, the h- why I don't take many things home from these restaurants is what are really the odds that I'm going to get out of Mother Wolf into the heart of the Fountain Blue Casino, go directly to my car- Mm...
8:31
and go home and get it into the fridge in a manner of time- Without a doubt... right? No, I'm gonna sit there- Without a doubt... I'm gonna end up at the blackjack table.
8:37
I'm gonna end up playing video poker, and then I'm carrying around a bag for three hours full, of full of food. Yeah.
8:42
A- and, and to be real serious though, too, I don't like food wasted, so I really don't mind people taking food home. I really don't. You wanna take the, if there's a leftover there, take it home.
8:51
But don't order with the intent of taking it home. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah.
8:55
There is, there is a, no, what you're hitting on is there is an etiquette to everything, and when you're on somebody else's comp, how come some people just don't have the ability to think an extra second and say, "Huh, should I do that when it's on this dude's comp?
9:12
Or will that look bad?" Some people just have no filter on that kind of stuff. They're just like, "Yeah, free for all. I'm ordering whatever I want, and I'm taking it home." Yeah. It is very gauche. That's the word.
9:21
Very good. Very- like, Nifty has never taken anything home. No. He's thought about- No... taking it, maybe, like, maybe, and selling it before we leave the door, but he never took it home. [laughs] So.
9:29
[laughs] That's right. There's, right. Now, you came in, by the way, you said, uh, bruschetta. I will just tell you this, for anybody who's in San Francisco, there is a place called Jackson Fillmore in the city.
9:41
The bruschetta is better than anything else on the menu. Like, I will go there and just take out bruschetta. It's so unbelievably good. Wow. Wow.
9:48
But you, you came, you came into the studio, um, we can bleed this into the next segment, but you were pretty hot about something that's been going on on Twitter. Yeah. Yeah.
9:55
You wanna get into it next segment or, or start it now? No, let's start, let's just give it, give us the, the broad view at this point. There's a- We'll get into it...
10:02
there's a fraud scamster out there that's on all sorts of social media, gets millions of hits, and m- most people know him. He says he has a baccarat system, and he killed the casinos for baccarat, and, uh- Sure...
10:15
he's selling his system, by the way. He's just waiting now. It's been a couple years. Um, he's selling his system, and he's waiting for the right person to come along, and he said he's gonna do it for 50 million.
10:25
So $50 million to, to, because the casinos cheat, he's not allowed in the casinos. That's what he says. He's not allowed in casinos for many other reasons.
10:33
I know many executives, um, and, and he's not allowed in them because he trash- cr- trashes rooms, talk abou- talks about places and the places he's in, and he just, you know, he, he, he has, um, long history of, of many different things.
10:45
But so now his latest scam is, uh, he's looking for accounts to bet on. So he put a video out yesterday that's got a ton of views, or it was actually Monday, and he said, uh, "I'm looking for your accounts."
10:58
And I know what that, that's PPH accounts. He wants your private accounts. He said, "We're gonna win, and w- I'm paying all the, a- any ca- you know, I'm paying if we lose, but I want your accounts if we win."
11:08
He's got a lot of followers, a lot of naive people. Um, and, uh, he's not doing the betting, of course. I mean, he, he, he probably did fall into line with someone that's a sharp group, syndicate group or something.
11:19
But, um, the way he worded it was, "I'll put up all the money." There's no putting up money. He says, "I'll..." What it is, is, "I'll pay the money if I lose."
11:28
Okay, yeah, I'll trust you over the internet and with your history. Um, but yeah, so he's... A- and, and kids fall for it. People fall for it. Ugh.
11:36
People that are betting with their local bookmaker, they fall for this stuff, and there's many reasons. When we come back from the break, I'll explain why you shouldn't do this. Yeah. Hold that thought. It's brutal.
11:46
They're always making new scamsters. Uh, coming back on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:56
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:07
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12:23
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 20 leagues, one mission, Just Win Bets Baby is your premier source for daily sports betting picks.
12:35
They break down the data so you can bet with confidence across the entire sports betting calendar.
12:39
Scan the QR code on your screen or visit justwinbetsbaby.com today and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets Baby, the name says it all. Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Billings back there in Las Vegas.
12:51
Kelly, um, I don't mean to get all Pablo Torre on everybody here- Yeah, you do... and act like... I, well, maybe I do. We love Pablo. Yeah. That's our buddy. Um,
13:02
but, and I don't wanna, and I also don't wanna act like I've been betting this for years and years, 'cause I haven't, and I also don't wa- don't wanna act like this is the Kennedy assassination that we're in, that, uh, we're gonna do a deep dive here on.
13:14
But we all bet on the hot dog eating contest, the Nathan's Coney Island Hot Dog Eating Contest, this past 4th of July, and, um, I had under 39 dogs and buns for Miki Sudo, the eventual, uh, women's champion.
13:29
Um, so I won my bet, so this is not also coming from a place of sour grapes, 'cause I won mine, right? So it's not a personal thing.
13:38
But I know there's a lot of people out there that had the under on 38 and a half, and remember what happened was that on screen while the broadcast happened, it was counted at 34 hot dogs and buns for Miki Sudo, and then mysteriously sometime after that, maybe even a matter of minutes, it was said that officially it was 38.75 hot dog, uh, and buns.
14:03
So all those people who had the under at 38 and a half and lower lost on their bet.
14:08
And, you know, we made a, we made a deal of it for a little bit the next morning or Monday morning, maybe even we waited till Tuesday morning.
14:17
I can't even remember anymore because we were sort of like, "Oh yeah, we even forgot to watch it," you and me. I'm sure it was Monday- Um... we talked about it.
14:23
Well, I think we did talk about it Monday morning, and then, you know, then we got the explanation, right? The official explanation. Folks tweeted as and say, "Oh yeah, well, they missed a plate.
14:31
They missed a plate," and so, you know, they have five hot dogs and buns on a plate, and that's where the discrepancy was, and we all kinda let it go.
14:39
Well, uh, two days ago, 'cause I kinda forgot to do this yesterday, but two days ago, I, I'm glad I didn't because then I researched it more yesterday.
14:47
Two days ago I got, you know, you get notifications on your phone for things, and, um, ESPN, as it turns out, had a dedicated camera on Miki Sudo. So not the camera that was the broadcast- Right...
15:03
where they're cutting from contestant to contestant, not a wide shot. This is a camera literally, like, looking up her nose- Mm-hmm... for the entire 10 minutes.
15:11
By the way, it was disgusting to watch, but I decided I was gonna watch all 10 minutes and count for myself. And Kelly, I'm telling you right now, she ate exactly 34 hot dogs and buns. Exactly.
15:26
Sometimes the count on the screen was, like, one ahead of me, one below, but it always reconciled. Right, yeah. And at the end it was 34. I saw it with my own two eyes.
15:35
So now you're thinking to yourself, "Okay, well, yeah, Gil, great, 34, but that's the official ruling." I, it, okay, there was no plate missed. There just wasn't.
15:44
So then you say to yourself, "Okay, well, like, what, is there nefarious activity here?"
15:48
And of course as sports bettors we all go, "Oh, the books are doing something," or, "The hot dog contest people are doing something." Mm-hmm. And I'm not suggesting either. I'm not suggesting either.
15:58
What I did then sort of, you know, notice, by the way, George Shea, uh, the co-founder of Major League Eating, explained the discrepancy, as I said, occur- uh, occurred because a plate was overlooked, but the error, just to, to be thorough, was caught by head official Judge Sam Barclay during the final verification process.
16:15
And even a former participant, uh, Darren Breeden, suggested that those errors stem from inexperienced counters tasked with tracking consumption du- uh, consumption during the event.
16:25
But again, I watched it with my own two eyes, and again, not to make this out to be the Kennedy assassination, but I started doing, like, more of a deep dive on it yesterday, and what I came across that it w- was that it wasn't just Miki Sudo whose count mysteriously altered,
16:43
it was also that of Nick Wehry, her husband, on the men's side. Hmm. So immediately I was sorta like, "Oh, that's interesting. Hmm." And by- Interesting... by several? Like Miki? By, yeah. By- Okay...
16:58
uh, I don't know by exactly how. N- no other eaters finished, uh, with more th- of an adjustment than one and a half hot dogs, but those two, Miki Sudo and her husband, uh, Nick Wehry, they did. Mm-hmm.
17:12
More than one and a half, and obviously in the case of Sudo it was, it was five or four and a half, four and three-quarters, uh, to be exact. So I'm like, "That's interesting," and I just sort of started to Google.
17:23
I'm like, "This, this, has anything else happened before?"
17:25
And, you know, what most articles tell you is, "Oh yeah, there was a, there was a previous contest where Joey Chestnut's count, you know, uh, changed," and that's kind of, it, like, sort of takes you off the scent.
17:37
What is lesser, less reported is that in 2024 Nick Wehry was accused of cheating to boost his score.
17:49
So, um, again, husband of women's division champ Miki Sudo, he was accused of some slight-of-hand trickery during the 4th of July contest in 2024 in order to inflate his tally, uh, of eaten hot dogs, not to get him to win the competition, but to take him from the 40s total- Right...
18:08
into the low 50s, which puts you among the elite. So I think there's a couple things in factoring here. It didn't change the position this year of Miki Sudo. She was gonna win it anyway.
18:19
It didn't change the position of Nick Wehry back in 2024. He wasn't going to win it anyway. It was just a, a more of a count.
18:26
And what ended up happening, and this is according to the California Post, the article then is a offshoot, it's a toggle from the New York Post, "100% he cheated," one source said.
18:37
Uh, on the day of the competition, Werry's score was a respectable 46.75 hot dogs when they called it out at Coney Island, good enough for a fourth place finish according to footage and reports.
18:46
But that figure later jumped to 51.75 on the official Major League Eating results website, allegedly giving him credit for five full dogs more than he was actually served during the competition.
18:58
And like then, now, right? They said eater scores are tabulated based on the number of empty plates stacked in front of their spot after the allotted time has concluded. Then the judges look at the debris.
19:11
They decide, oh, did he- did he or she eat a full dog, a half dog, whatever, that kind of thing. Right.
19:15
But every plate on the competition table starts out loaded with five hot dogs, so each plate left behind counts for five dogs eaten as the judges determine the participant's score.
19:25
So he had been accused of stealing plates from another competitor's stack and putting them on his own place setting to raise his score above 50, which again, consider the threshold about separating the elite from the non-elite.
19:41
Um, and again, didn't change his placement. So I think there's a couple things.
19:44
Again, not only did it not change her, Miki Sudo, or Nick Werry's placement, Nick Werry's in 2024, Miki Sudo's this year, nor Nick Werry's this year,
19:54
but we as bettors are not betting dimes or five dimes on this kind of stuff- Right... it's all small limited bets. Only the, you know, people with multiple outs. I bet it at two shops, right?
20:05
And the people who bet them at multiple outs who are more serious bettors, they're already moving on to the next bet, right? If it's 250 here, 250 there.
20:13
So there's a couple factors that allow for us to just kind of move on. "Oh, that's the explanation. I guess I didn't lose that much money."
20:21
Again, I won, but, uh, for those who lost, "I guess I didn't lose that much money. Oh, well." Right? Yeah. "I guess it's 'cause there, there was a missing plate."
20:29
So by the way, um- How often do we- One source suggested... Yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry...
20:33
how often do we talk about the bettor, the $20 bettor who just kind of expects to lose anyways, and these are the vi- the, these are the events that we're talking about, right?
20:40
Like, they just wanna have some action down on an event like this to enjoy it, and yeah, it, they're not gonna think twice about that when that 20 bucks is gone later.
20:48
So again, I'm not accusing sportsbooks, I'm not accusing Major League Eating, I'm not inclu- I'm not accusing George Shea.
20:55
I am presenting to you some facts that were, you know, or some allegations that were made in 2024, and interestingly, only Sudo and Werry's numbers were changed this year. Couple more things on that.
21:05
Uh, one source suggested in 2024, this according to the article from Anita, uh, Bolle and Chris Nissi back in 2024.
21:13
One source suggested that Werry asked for a recount after the initial judges' tallying took place, concerned his true total wouldn't cut the mustard in a highly competitive field.
21:22
Uh, the source claimed, quote, "I can only assume he demanded a recount after stealing the plate."
21:28
A lengthy post on an internet forum devoted to eating competitions included videos of that year's contest along with time codes that purport to show him acting suspiciously, including moving plates around on the table.
21:42
Uh, and in fact, in videos viewed by that publication, Werry can be seen hovering around the stage well after the competition was over, in that case appearing to pick up and move items on the table, including at least one empty plate, which he twirls in his hand end over end.
21:56
MLE, Major League Eating, they investigated. They cons- carefully considered the complaint after reviewing the video.
22:03
Um, but then, you know, they said, "It's our policy not to overturn judges' decisions after the final results have been recorded." So again, is this the Kennedy assassination? It is not.
22:14
Am I coming from a place of losing a bet and I'm bitter? It is not. It's simply, for me, Kelly, it's, it's-- and not to get too corny about this, but we bet on stuff. Mm-hmm.
22:23
And we live in a world now where, you know, AI, uh, Wall Street interests, politics, they all call into question, you know, all truths.
22:35
And sports betting, sort of despite justifiable claims about the shadiness of books or athletes now trying to exploit the, uh, the widespread availability of legalized betting, it's still one of the last honest businesses in the sense that, you know, generally with exception, but generally what you see is what you get, right?
22:55
Uh, you place a bet, and then the meritocracy of the arena determines your outcome. And for those of us who bet on these things, we'd like to see that preserved, so I'm just presenting the facts.
23:07
It looks really shady, dude. It just does, and I'm sorry that it disappeared. I don't want it to disappear. Someone should look closer into this. Coming back, Zach Cohen on tennis.
23:18
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:28
Don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Check 'em out, sharpplays.com.
23:38
You can scan the QR code on your screen for more. We get tweets beating the book. SWatson20, "I am one of those bettors who had a bet on the under 38 and a half dogs eaten just to have a little action.
23:50
Kudos to you, Gil, for doing a deep dive on this, and if nothing else, my days of betting this are done. I wonder how much action Calshi had on this bet."
23:58
Ooh, I don't know the answer to that, but it's a whole bunch I bet. Uh, Jesse Welch, "I absolutely love the mental picture that I have of Gil three inches away from the screen studying Sudo cramming down dogs."
24:11
I resemble that remark- Yeah... pretty accurately. For 10 minutes. Uh, Joe Nunz. Yes, [chuckles] for 10 total minutes. Joe Nunz, "Damn, I retired to listen about the hot dog contest? Bring on football."
24:22
Eh, we'll get there momentarily. Uh, CodyJets233, "Over under six and a half career Grand Slams for Coco." Uh, she's got two now. I'm gonna say under. I'm gonna say under. Two-- The competition is too good.
24:37
Mike Zills, Duke90, "Just bet Holland and Kane and make the whole plane out of the black box[laughs] I love that joke, by the way.
24:46
Uh, just bet Haaland and Kane for the Golden Boot and just make the whole play out of the black box. Why don't they make the play out of the black box if the black box survives everything?
24:55
Trip Tepper: "Anyone who had a bet on Coco," that's me, "don't go watch the 9-8 point for match point in the tiebreaker. You might drive your car into a telephone pole." And that's why I'm not gonna watch it, Trip.
25:07
Thank you for the advice there. Shooter McGamblin, BrentHurley7: "Commander should be ahead of the Cowboys for the division. We've seen this iteration of the Cowboys for many years now.
25:16
Good, not great quarterback, and a lot of B+ players around him." Rules for Society: "Did Dan Campbell learn his lesson? Do we know if Petzing calling plays this year?" Uh, it's going to be David Blough.
25:28
Former Lions starting quarterback David Blough is gonna be calling plays for Washington this year. Um, and, uh, let's see here.
25:37
Ankit Ka- Kadakia: "Did we get lucky with the Big Three and Serena just showing a different level of mental toughness and IQ/game situation?
25:45
It appears the entire ATP and WTA outside of Carlos just gacks it when the going gets tough." There's a lot of that, man. There's a lot of that these days, um, for sure. Um, okay.
25:57
Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Paul, of course, is at True Media Networks. You can follow him on Twi- on Twitter rather, @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R. Paul, good morning to you.
26:07
We have some breaking soccer news. Uh, Christian Pulisic suffering a microfracture versus Belgium.
26:14
Just announced that he sustained a bone bruise and a microfracture in his lower leg and will be sidelined for several weeks, sources confirmed to ESPN. So an injury is confirmed.
26:24
Can you contextualize Christian Pulisic in the pantheon of United States soccer players for us?
26:32
Yeah, I mean, I think from a, we're talking more from a club standpoint, I think this, he's the best US player that there's been. Uh, I'm kind of throwing keepers out. Keepers are kind of their own animal.
26:43
US has obviously had plenty of great keepers at the Premier League level, so we'll just say best outfield player. Um, I mean, he's won Champions League, he's won other trophies.
26:49
He's played for, you know, Chelsea and Milan and Dortmund, like three of the 10 or 15 biggest clubs in the world. Uh, now his national team career, he's done really well.
26:59
He may very well end up being their all-time top scorer, but he obviously hasn't been as successful. Uh, you know, missed a World Cup when he was very first getting on the team.
27:08
He did score a goal at the last World Cup and, and did well here when he was on the field and healthy, which was only about a half. So yeah, he's, he's right in the top.
27:16
He, you know, he obviously still has, you know, several more years to play and maybe another World Cup. Okay. Here's a, here's another one before we get to your picks. Hmm. Lionel Messi, currently with eight goals.
27:27
[laughs] Um, leading the Golden Boot race. Argentina with an amazing, just electrifying win over Egypt. Obviously there are different opinions on what happened during that game. Argentina advances. Sure.
27:40
And I guess my question to you is this.
27:42
In the pantheon of soccer period, the history of the sport, if this continues, if Messi, I don't know, let's say has another, you know, another couple dramatic goals, wins the Golden Boot, Argentina wins the cup, can we finally just say he's the greatest player of all time?
28:02
It's getting harder and harder to not say he's the greatest, basically. If they win another World Cup with him, I mean,
28:11
even now I think the only real argument against him is, I mean, it's kind of a foundation type thing. Like is Babe Ruth a better player than Barry Bonds? Like,
28:21
no is the short answer, but there is something to doing it first and revolutionizing the game and things like that.
28:28
So from that perspective, m- maybe you can make an argument for Pelé, maybe even Maradona if you squint a little bit.
28:35
Uh, but from the breadth of what he's accomplished in his career at the club and country level, and doing it, again, it's important I think to do it on both those, uh, not just because they're two different competitions, but just different teams.
28:47
If you do everything with just Barcelona, I think that's a little bit different.
28:50
So yeah, it's really hard to say he is not right now, and if they just make the final, let alone win the title, I'm gonna say that's almost an impossible claim. Yeah. That's what it's starting to feel like.
29:02
Um, you would have a better read on that than I. That's why I ask. I, I mean, the comparison- Let us begin with the quarterfinal- I'll make one comparison real quick... the World Cup.
29:10
It's sort of like Tom Brady, you know?
29:12
Like there was a time where like, I think it, he might be the best, and maybe, yeah, maybe there's an argument for Montana or whatever you wanna make, and then he just kept winning and kept, you know- Peyton...
29:20
six Super Bowls. Yeah. Yeah, Peyton was hanging around for a while. And then you just keep winning- Mm-hmm...
29:24
and keep doing things until you're 53 years old or whatever, and you just kinda can't make an argument and it's accepted. So I think that's kind of the same thing with Messi here. France-Morocco today in Foxborough.
29:35
How are you playing this? I have both teams to score here. Uh, France, their defense has not been bad, but it hasn't been great. Just kind of been fine throughout the tournament. We know all about their attack.
29:45
They feel like they could hang g- three goals on anybody, unless you just kind of bunker in and try to play for penalties like Paraguay did. Morocco won't do that. I mean, they are, they won't pack it in.
29:54
They'll, I mean, they'll have less of the ball, but they'll come right at you. They have a pretty good counterattack even without their, uh, best forward, who's gonna miss this game injured.
30:01
So I mean, France getting a goal is, you know, I'm not going out on any kind of limb there. But Morocco, this is a good team. This is a top 10 team in the world, and they're comfortable with the ball.
30:10
They're comfortable without the ball. And I think they'll find a way to poke holes in that French midfield and defense, which again, has been fine but not great.
30:17
So both teams to score here, uh, minus 105 I think was my price. This is super easy to remember. Paul has both teams to score, France, Morocco. Then tomorrow same bet with Spain and Belgium? Same thing.
30:29
It's a little, uh, not controversial, but it's a little more of a limb in the sense that Spain has not given up a goal this whole tournament.
30:36
So I- Uh, and Belgium is not an offensive juggernaut, but the thing I think they have going for them is that they've shown the willingness to make subs and just go for it.
30:44
They did it against Senegal when they were down two goals late, make the subs, and just kind of throw everything forward. Uh, so I think they're gonna be inclined to do that.
30:51
So we kind of assume Spain's gonna get a lead, and then Belgium's gonna have to make up ground, and I think they will go for it and just give it a shot. And they have enough talent.
31:00
This is not a, you know, top five team in the world, but they're, you know, top 10-ish. I think they're ranked ninth overall, which is roughly right. They have talent.
31:07
They have, you know, game-changing types who can do things. So I think both teams get a goal here. Uh, I mean, I don't ex- really expect Belgium to get through, but I think they'll get on the scoreboard.
31:16
I am told if no one scores against you, you will not lose a, a soccer match. Unless you lose on PKs, I guess. It, it is difficult to lose. Yeah. Correct. It's difficult to lose. Correct.
31:25
Now, it's not a certainty, but it's difficult to lose. Right. Saturday, double header beginning with the marquee match up, the banger. Norway and England. You're playing a total here. This'll be fun.
31:37
Yeah, I'm going over two and a half here. Uh, all five Norway games so far have had at least three goals, and the underlying numbers back that up. Over three expected goals in all of them as well.
31:46
Uh, England, again, not a great defensive team. Still a lot of questions. I mean, Mexico was able to generate a lot of good chances against them early on, uh, before the red card, oddly enough.
31:57
Uh, so I think we're gonna get goals one way or the other. We've got Haaland, we've got Kane. We've got two of the best goal scorers in the world, and teams that are going to feed them.
32:05
Jude Bellingham's been great, uh, for England, making those runs into the box. Martin Odegaard, uh, setting up Norway midfield. So, uh, yeah, this should be a really fun game.
32:14
I don't quite know which way this is gonna go, but I think there's gonna be goals one way or the other. Let's go Erling Haaland. Let's go Norway. Yeah. Yeah.
32:23
Um, and then Saturday night in Kansas City, which I think means that Paul Carr will be in attendance for this, yes? Yes. World Cup quarterfinal, I'll be there. Argentina, Switzerland, also a total play.
32:36
So yeah, I'm betting against human achievement on the Swiss side here. Under half a goal for Switzerland, plus 115. Uh, Switzerland's not an offensive juggernaut.
32:45
They, I mean, if you watch the Colombia game, they generated very little. Their best attacker, Johan Manzambi, is this 20-year-old kid who's probably going to Newcastle. Uh, he probably is not going to play in this game.
32:54
He missed the last game, and without him, they miss that kind of extra spark, creativity, dynamites, and whatever you want to call it.
33:01
Uh, Argentina's weakness defensively is really on the wings, and Switzerland doesn't really... I mean, they're not terrible attacking the wings, but there's nothing special, uh, there.
33:10
So they're not particularly suited to attack Argentina well. So plus 115, Switzerland not to score, essentially. All right. France, Morocco, both teams to score today. Tomorrow, Spain, Belgium, both teams to score.
33:23
Then on Saturday, Norway, England over two and a half goals, and then Switzerland under a half goal, so just the Switzerland side, under a half goal versus Argentina. Should be fun. Paul, who's winning it all?
33:38
Still got France. I mean, they're- Still got France... I, I don't think any team is perfect. All, the top four teams all have shown flaws in different ways, but I think France has the highest ceiling of any of them.
33:47
That's right. Too good. What's the best- Let's go... what's the best story? What's the best story? Which team winning here at this point? I mean, Ar- Argentina, I think. I mean, Messi going out- Yeah...
33:57
with another one, you know? He, I would guess he'd retire internationally after that. You can't beat that. Norway was the correct answer there. Come on, Paul. Ah, sorry. Come on. Ah, dropped the ball there.
34:05
Get in the boat. Get in the boat. My bad. Correct, correct answer was Norway. All of our English- Oh... listeners are screaming as well at the- [laughs]... at the screens. That's all right. Thank you, Paul.
34:13
That's all right. Appreciate it. Coming back- You bet. You bet... on the Numbers Game.
34:16
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game.
34:34
Gil Alexander live from San Francisco. Kelly Bidlin back at the mothership in Las Vegas at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. It is a numbers game. Uh, you missed it earlier.
34:44
Muchova beats Coco 12-10 in the, uh, tiebreaker. Still licking my wounds. This is, uh, Jared@scarscar32 on Twitter, "Come on Goff, you had it and you let it slip away. The altitude at Wimbledon is only 94 feet."
35:00
[laughs] Yeah, it wasn't the altitude or the elevation.
35:03
Um, Montreal Max, "Hate when we're oppo on these matches, but prior to the Goff gaff, the chair gave Muchova a time warning of all things, serving at 8-H, which she then netted her first serve and lost the second serve.
35:16
But her game is so beautiful to watch," as Mac compares it to, uh, Justine Enn, Henin.
35:22
Yeah, it's, I've always said this about Muchova, and we've, w- we always say on our podcasts, our, our Tennis Grand Slam podcast, we probably talk more about Muchova over time, uh, as far as non-Slam winners, more than anybody who else who's not ever won a Slam.
35:37
It j- she's just a, it's a beautiful game. We've won betting on her a lot. Today she gets the best of Coco when apparently Coco gagged match point at 9-8, which I don't dare watch.
35:48
Justin D, "Quick answering no from Paul Carr when throwing out the, uh, 'Is Babe Ruth a better player [laughs] than Barry Bonds?' was a wise choice for the sake of his segment. Lol." Very true.
36:00
[laughs] I, I, uh- Glad he threw in that no... I did notice that as well. It was a quick, I was like, "Ooh, Barry Bonds. Where's he going here? Oh, that was quick." Quick, quick to reel it back in.
36:09
Is he as good as Barry Bonds? Uh, no. I was like, "Okay, easy."
36:14
Um, boy, oh boy, that's, uh, that, that was interesting though from Paul about putting not only Pulisic in context with the American soccer players, but also the Messi thing.
36:24
'Cause I w- I really did wanna ask that, which is, I mean, are we really telling ourselves that this... Uh, Pele is Pele, right? And his point is well taken about it's when you're the first to do something, right?
36:37
When you just catapult the sport single-handedly, you will always be in your own category. But as far as, like, the best of all time Boy, he said it perfectly.
36:47
It is getting tougher and tougher to make the argument against Messi- Yeah... at this point. And, and our, our college football buddy, I don't know if you saw this, Kelly. Did we talk about this either on or off air?
36:58
Uh, Pete Futak, who comes on to do college football with us- We, we definitely did- Peter F- Where- wherever you're going, we definitely did not- Okay... talk about, yeah. So Pete Fu- I hope Pete's doing well.
37:08
Haven't heard or thought about him in a couple months...
37:10
Pete Futak a couple weeks ago, so the World Cup was already underway, Messi was scored a bunch of goals, and Futak very innocently on Twitter, 'cause all of his tweets are very innocent, he, uh, he innocently tweets, uh, "Serious question from like," and I'm paraphrasing, "from like an average American who doesn't really follow soccer.
37:30
But if Messi is this good," he says, "why is he playing in the MLS?" Right? That was his question. Dude, he got m- I, I want, I don't wanna say millions, but like hundreds of thousands- [laughs]...
37:44
of, like, likes and retweets and all this kinda stuff. It, 'cause it was a really innocent question. He's just like, "I mean, this dude is clearly, like, the greatest still." He's 39 years old or however old he is.
37:53
He's 39, I believe. Um, um- Decade... so it's just, it's incredible. And I do think, uh, I do think the, the way I phrased it was, was deliberate, which is- Mm-hmm...
38:04
yeah, if they get knocked out in this next round, maybe we're not having this conversation, but if this continues for Argentina, he keeps scoring goals. Yeah, he's 39, by the way. Yep. He keeps scoring goals.
38:13
Just turned 39. Just turned 39. Um, him, Djokovic, they're all 39. Um, they, he keeps scoring goals and Argentina wins this, how can you say he's not anymore? How can you say he's not? It's, uh- So...
38:27
it's pretty incredible to watch, espe- uh, uh, especially, Gil, he's not gifted like some of the others, like Erling Haaland, you know, with being Jo- i- i- respect to the Drew- That's right...
38:38
the Drew Brees body type versus the Josh Allen body type. You know what I mean? Respect there. I, you gotta give it to him for that.
38:45
Uh, R Johnson, the realist RJ, did not like the, uh, the Dak Prescott sort of shade that was given earlier by another tweeter.
38:53
He says, "To be fair, Dallas' good but not great quarterback's record versus the NFC East is 37 and 10 straight up. This has to mean something," he said. Um- I, I like it, I like it.
39:03
I, there should be more conversation like this. I'm very pro. This is what I always bring up, Gil. It's why does Dak Prescott get killed every, every off-season and Justin Herbert gets put on this pedestal- [laughs]...
39:16
and they're like the same guy? I knew you were gonna wedge Justin Herbert into this. Uh, PK- I'm probably, I'm not even, I, I never even tried to defend Dak.
39:24
I just think he gets criti- I think he gets killed unfairly sometimes, and he's a pretty damn good quarterback. And I think Justin Herbert's a pretty damn good quarterback. I just don't see many rings, you know?
39:34
Or playoff wins. I have, I have, I have two favorite things about this. One is you bringing up Justin Herbert at every given opportunity, which by the way I don't disagree with, right?
39:43
I'm just, I, I get giggly about it when you start- Yeah... when you start in on it. And then our buddy Lou Finicara, who's the nicest guy in the world.
39:50
Lou's a Justin Herbert guy, so he always [laughs] every once in a while he'll send an angry text about the Herbert slander. Uh, and then PK- He is great. He's great. Yeah. But- Yeah... gotta win at some point.
40:02
There's a lot of game... Now here, it, it's, it, the problem, and here's how I put it with Herbert.
40:07
There's a lot of close games with the Chargers over time where he doesn't come through at the end, but the caveat is, or, or but the alternate side of that is, not the caveat. Mm-hmm.
40:19
The, the other way of saying it, though, is that they're not in it at the end unless it's him at quarterback. No, for sure. For sure. But the other one- You know?...
40:26
the other one where I would go and defend Dak a bit with, and yes, you could say different seasons with the Cowboys, the roster has looked wildly different. You know what?
40:35
Justin Herbert has al- like every season had some p- all, all pro, Pro Bowl, I mean, at least Pro Bowl level wide receiver to throw the ball to. It's been incredible- Yeah... the weapons he's had throughout his career.
40:47
It, it, it has been. Uh, and then PK, uh, Mountain Steeler Dan, uh, Mountain Steeler Dan, pardon me, "Good news, uh, now can watch ANG today for a bit. Bad news, early morning job interview, uh, online canceled.
41:00
At airport early to take aforementioned interview and then fly out for a trip. Flight delayed, mechanical. Open up the show and first thing I hear is, uh, Gil oy vey about Coco." Yeah, sorry about that, man. Sorry.
41:14
Uh, and then JD in Florida, "Looking forward to Crack at the top of the hour. Class in session. Professor Crack far and away the best hour of any guest on a weekly basis."
41:21
Um, as far as the bets today, Kelly, I'm on the draw here, uh, in this game between France and Morocco in this match today at Foxborough, first quarterfinal of the 2026 World Cup. I'm on the draw at plus 299.
41:34
Um, France had trouble scoring against Paraguay, uh, only got there with a PK in the 70th minute, I believe it was. So I'm gonna go draw here, 90 minute plus the, uh, added time, plus 299.
41:47
And then there's the Red Sox most wins in July, 80 to 1, off to about as good of a start as we could possibly have had. Five and one. Um, one win behind the Brewers, who are at six and three.
41:59
Brewers have played three more baseball games. Lead the Red Sox by one, uh, win. Twins are also at five and one, so it's not just the Red Sox there. Tigers are also involved, but there are the Red Sox doing good things.
42:13
You, sir. All right, I'm gonna start with a quick Justin Herbert retraction.
42:16
I might have gone too far that last, uh, that last sentence, Gil, 'cause, uh, the, the wide receiver situation in Dallas, especially last year and this year, definitely better than what Justin Herbert's dealing with.
42:25
So I'm gonna give you that one. But I was talking more beginning of the se- be- beginning of the career, you know what I mean. Um, okay, soccer for me, Spain win to nil, plus 180. I'm with Mr.
42:34
Chris Felica on that one against Belgium tomorrow. Norway plus a half a goal or the double chance, and then I played two one correct score. I might be adding on to these, but this is where I started yesterday, Gil.
42:47
I, I think I threw out about 15 different possible Norway bets yesterday on the show. This is where I deci- decided to start We'll see if I add anything else there. NBA Summer League. I'll be out there tonight.
42:59
Come find me if you are. Maybe we can hang out. Jazz, I'm laying a point and a half, 115 in the game tonight. And then I am playing Grizzlies and Nets in the futures markets.
43:09
Grizzlies 10 to 1, Nets 11 to 1 to win the Summer League. Okay. Uh, we also got a, uh, by the way, uh, Zach Cohen and I are opposite on this next semifinal as well.
43:20
He's on Marta Kostiuk versus Linda Noskova, but keep in mind, he got it at a better number for Vsion subscribers last night or yesterday, vsion.com/picks for all, uh, subscribers, every host, every guest, every sport, every bet.
43:32
So he's on minus 128. It's pretty much out of whack to play now on Kostiuk. I'm on Noskova as a slight dog, a worse number than you can get Noskova on right now.
43:44
So in Noskova's case, I would play it now at the slightly better number.
43:49
Um, Zach also, Summer League overall, he's got the Nets to win NBA Summer League at 14 to 1, the Hawks to win it at 18 to 1, the Mavs to win it at 60 to 1.
43:57
And then in today's games, T-Wolves over the Pelicans on the money line, Mavs plus five and a half versus the Warriors, Jazz laying the point and a half versus the Wizards in, I guess, what is really the marquee matchup of night number one, the number two pick in the draft, Darren Peterson for the Jazz, the number one pick in the draft, AJ Debonsa of the Wizards facing each other.
44:18
Paul Carr today, France, Morocco, both teams to score. Tomorrow, Spain, Belgium, both teams to score. Saturday, Norway, England over two and a half goals.
44:26
Switzerland under a half a goal for the Switzerland side specifically versus Argentina on Saturday.
44:33
Uh, as far as, uh, Jared, no, one more, I'm sorry, Nemo, Ryan's voice on Twitter, "Looks like no one is touching the current baseball slate on the show. Numbers are all tight.
44:43
I guess I'll take the hit and just stay away." Well, not exactly. I will be on the Red Sox as well tonight. Uh, Red Sox facing Anthony Kaye.
44:52
Uh, Red Sox are a slight dog, but Anthony Kaye is a lefty, and I love the Red Sox against lefties. Give them to me with that right-handed lineup.
44:59
So Red Sox trying to get to six and one in July and complete the sweep of the White Sox. So I will be on the Bo Sox tonight. Crack is next in studio. It's a numbers game at Vs and the Sports Betting Network.
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