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Jun 11, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 11, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 11, 2024
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45:31
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, AI Heart Radio. I almost said A Heart. iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. [laughs] Where did that come from? And A Heart too, if you're out there.
0:20
Yeah, if you're out there, that's quite the network as well. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada. The D, what's happening? Not much, man.
0:27
We got, we got a little black and white cookie thing going on the past two days. You noticed that? I was in black yesterday, you were in white, and now we've flip-flopped. Yeah, you said that to me this morning.
0:34
I'm like, "Oh, okay." Yeah. I don't know. What are you like, oh, you're fashion today. Found it interesting. Well, I gotta, I, I, we're doing long shots later. Uh-huh. It's called Long Shots.
0:41
So I, I gotta rock the jacket, you know what I mean? But then- I get it... you know, I wanna be a little bit more casual for this one. I don't know. I hear you, man.
0:47
So Long Shots, you know, again, uh, d- obviously, if you've been trapped under a heavy object, the US Open, golf's third major of the year. We always have to s- take that pause. The PGA now is second. Yeah.
1:00
Golf's third major of the year happening this week. How many times does Long Shots air? Four? Seven? How many times? That's a great question. I don't know. Um, uh, we will be recording today.
1:11
We'll be up in podcast form today. Okay. And then it will be live on the video side, not live, we'll be airing on the video side tomorrow at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, and then I believe later, uh, Wednesday night as well.
1:23
So right after Numbers Game tomorrow. Yes. It's called Long Shots. It's called Long Shots. US Open betting preview tomorrow noon Eastern with Kelly Bidlin, Matt Brown, and the great Wes Reynolds.
1:34
Actually, we'll just keep calling it live 'cause I wanna see e- I wanna see everybody tweet in about how I ran over to Circa and changed so quickly- Sprinters... four minutes tomorrow. [laughs] Avoiding shivving.
1:42
Yeah, that's right. Yeah.
1:43
[laughs] Um, wanna start with some, by the way, on the show today, Drew Dinsick will join us, talk, uh, NBA playoffs, obviously NBA finals, uh, what he learned in the French, maybe look ahead to see how he's gonna tackle Wimbledon, all kinds of things.
1:55
His thoughts on the US Open as well, 'cause I know he, uh, he participates in Calcutas and that sort of thing. Uh, Paul Spohor on baseball a little later, and Byron Lindiquie.
2:06
Byron Lindiquie is a host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at RotoBaller PGA. Um, he's gonna give us his US Open thoughts. He is South African. Mm-hmm.
2:16
Um, so again, like with Dan Weston, there will be a language barrier here. [laughs] I can't wait, I can't wait for it. Byron's a great golf follow. Yeah. Great, uh, great golf betting mind, does some great stuff.
2:26
We haven't had him on, on the show before. I'm looking forward to it today. Looking forward to it.
2:28
Uh, and I'm, I don't wanna do your st- I mean, I will do the standard, we'll get all of his picks, but I also want to talk about something that you were impressed by with him some time ago when you listened to a podcast that he was on, which is he sort of did a autopsy.
2:40
And by the way, we, we haven't said this in a long time. Mm.
2:42
But for those who are new to betting or new-ish to betting, you know, you win, you lose, you should always, first of all, you should be recording if you're doing this seriously.
2:51
Yeah, maybe you're doing it for entertainment, you don't care about this, but if you're doing this seriously, you should be logging all of your bets in every sport.
2:57
You should try to parse them out in as many ways as possible, but, you know, if you don't wanna get too crazy on it, uh, I understand, but you should. The more that you are into it, the more you should.
3:05
And, uh, he did a sort of, you know, retrospective on, or really, really just sort of a analysis of some of his markets that he bet, what he learned from that last year. Mm-hmm.
3:17
So why don't we get into some of that as well right now?
3:18
Yeah, it was, it was him and Pat Mayo, and I believe it was at the end of last season, I believe is when they did this podcast, but I, I think it's one for, for those of us that bet golf regularly, where it's so, you know, how often do we pull up Major League Baseball and you're looking at our top ROI- Yeah...
3:32
uh, ROI teams, bottom ROI teams. Okay, well how does that kind of translate over to some of these golf betting markets that we talk about a lot for top, specifically top 10s, top 20s, that type of thing.
3:43
And okay, it's great if I can s- I can sit here and say I'm betting Xander Schauffele top 10 every week, but those odds are obviously not the same every week. They're moving, right?
3:52
So at the end of the year, not how m- not only how many top 10s did Xander Schauffele hit, but at the end of the year, are you up money and how much and at what odds- Yeah... are those making sense to bet?
4:02
So there were, there was a very, very good podcast on how to- I'm feeling, I'm feeling geeky today. Mm. I'm feeling nerdy. Let's go. Nerd it up.
4:07
We'll- We can go through, we're gonna go through some baseball stuff as well by, um, this is, this is my favorite new baseball follow, as I fumble the, uh, as I fumble the phone here. Brooksgate.
4:18
You familiar with this guy? I don't know if there, there used to be a s- back in the day, baseball geeks will remember this, baseball, uh, hardos will remember Brooks by Baseball. I wonder if it's the same person.
4:27
I don't know if it is or not. I r- see, I remember that one, and yes, I did not know of this- But-... this one when you started sending in... but whoever is running this site, we gotta get him on. Or her. Could be her.
4:37
Uh, we gotta get this person on 'cause there's a lot of really interesting baseball tweets that we'll get into throughout the show, um, that I think, you know, one of the things also from just a macro perspective on betting, much of what you are doing in every sport is to try to determine what is sustainable and what is not.
4:55
So in other words, teams have records, uh, players have records if it's an individual sport, whatever it is.
5:00
Um, who is, who has been fortunate, who has been unfortunate, what is actually a proper reflection of skill set?
5:07
And so baseball is probably the best lab, um, to look at that in, and is the most clear, and so we'll get into that throughout the show as well. I wanna start with, with something that, uh,
5:16
we ended up in our, in our text exchange with, uh, Wishnev, Fezzik, Will Hill, and Chris Felike yesterday, and I, I wanted to touch on it because I mentioned it yesterday in passing and didn't really seize on it, and I could, you know, I s- I sensed that I was probably unclear about this kind of thing.
5:30
So Dan Hurley, we were on the air yesterday, and we didn't know if he was going to take the Lakers job or not 24 hours ago, and I was reading a tweet, I had mentioned it, and, uh, someone said, "Well, you know, follow the money.
5:41
Before you they said he was minus 400 in the betting market to go, to, to become the Lakers next head coach." And I, in reacting to the tweet, I was just sort of like, "Oh, okay," and I just kept going.
5:52
And I didn't mean that to sound flippant about them having said it.
5:56
What I, what I intended to convey is when it comes to these kinds of markets, and this is just sort of, you know, a, a betting thing for people, again, who are new to this.
6:05
When it's a When it's a minus 400 in a market, say, at BetOnline or Bovada, right? These are markets that are capped in terms of what people are betting. It could just be 25 bucks for all we know. Maybe it's even less.
6:19
Right, yeah. And so it doesn't take anything, right? If Woj has a report, three people are gonna bet it, and all of a sudden it's minus 400.
6:29
So I guess what I'm saying is, it's a, just a sort of, uh, PSA about these kinds of particular markets, es- specifically this player to the next team or this coach to the next team.
6:40
Um, and so as we found out, uh, there was nothing to it, um, or he turned it down, whatever story you believe. Dan Hurley says no to the reported seven-year deal for 80 million.
6:53
Was that the, was that the proposed deal that we're getting reported? There are some people who believe that this was all- It was 70 million. Six year, 70. Six year, 70. Pardon me. Yeah, six year, 70.
7:01
By the way, six year, 70 in the scheme of coaching life at the top of your profession,
7:07
while it sounds like a tremendous, huge amount of money to mere mortals like you and me, I'm not sure that would've been enough to sway Dan Hurley from a two-time college, you know, a repeat college championship coach to coach the Lakers.
7:22
Like, that sh- that should've been way higher than that, shouldn't it have been? Uh, I, I think everybody was expecting a higher offer.
7:28
I mean, I mean, it, it would've put him in line, I think, to be the fifth highest paid NBA coach. I'm trying to look up right now. What do you, what do you believe about this, though? The other opinion on this is
7:38
this was never anything, that Shams got the scoop on, um- Redick... on JJ Redick being a candidate. Woj was upset about it, and then Woj goes and just sort of has connections, like, "Oh, the Lakers, Dan Hurley.
7:54
This is a thing. Oh, now it's not a thing." Like, I mean, who knows what's real. I think it was definitely a thing. I think it was definitely a thing. Was it maybe overblown- That's what I mean...
8:02
h- how much the Lakers wanted him? That's what I mean. That's definitely possible. Yeah.
8:08
Was it also, I also don't know that I will believe for a second the, I mean, the, the reporting here has be- has been s- kind of sketchy timeline, uh, throughout.
8:17
I, the part- It was full court press, and then it went away. Right. It went quiet.
8:20
So the other part that I don't believe, Gil, is, okay, this is, uh, and like I, I've seen specific stuff talking about, oh no, this was not Dan Hurley treating this as a negotiating tactic.
8:29
But like, he's instantly gonna double his salary from last year to what he's rolling into n- with next year with, likely with UConn. So like, what? Like, what?
8:37
But what I was saying yesterday was also if, again, for 98% of college coaches, this is now a different profession than it was when you took the job. Yes. You are now recruiting your own team.
8:46
You're recruiting other teams' players. That wasn't the job when you took it. Mm. But if you're Dan Hurley, you're on the mountaintop, and you have a, you're, you're already a repeat champion.
8:55
You're going for the all, you know, all too rare three-peat. It's a different sort of story. You're the king of Storrs, Connecticut. Yeah. So I don't know, and maybe he's an East Coast guy. Who knows?
9:03
And w- and by, by all accounts, killed it this off season as far as bringing guys in- Yeah... keeping guys and everything like that.
9:09
So the team's loaded up, but- Plus again, is the Lakers that great of a job if you're- Like I, Lakers offer, right? And then we heard about- Yeah...
9:14
this Kentucky offer coming in, and it's like, okay, all it is is this guy just, he did a great job negotiating [laughs] and is gonna get more money to s- maybe stay exactly where he wanted to be at.
9:23
Anyway, just that PSA about a betting market like a BetOnline or a Bovada.
9:27
When a number moves like that, it is not always, and often not, an indicator of actual reality of what's going to happen, because it doesn't take much to move that stuff.
9:37
Um, and- Now, now the Redick side of this stu- stuff's inter- like, I don't know where this leaves the Lakers. Like, that, that, where are the Lakers at today? I have no idea. No idea. It's, it's Borrego or it's Redick.
9:47
It's probably Borrego in the end. I'm gonna kind of laugh. It, I'm sorry. Yeah. But it's funny if it's Borrego, and that is nothing against, uh, Borrego.
9:53
But that is [laughs] when you, when Hurley and Redick have been floated around like this for the past three weeks now or whatever, and it's gonna end up being him? All right.
10:00
It, it's, it's also why I don't get involved in those markets, even if we could here in Nevada. Um, they're just, they're squirrely. You don't know. You don't know what's happening with these teams.
10:08
Yeah, I think, though, that you're talking about the limits. It's like, I mean, uh, like the big- Well, I'm not, not only the limits, but just I don't know what's happening. Sure, sure. Yeah.
10:15
Also like biggest piece of advice because of what you're talking about. Yeah. Even if you are limited, I wouldn't be caring too much about it. [laughs] Yeah. 'Cause you shouldn't be betting that mu- that much on it.
10:22
Uh, hockey last night, the Panthers take a two to nothing lead in the best of seven Stanley Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers, and this just feels like the Panthers are the better hockey team.
10:32
They're up two to nothing here, the four to one win. Um, and the Oilers, it feels like these soccer sides we'll see internationally where one team, one side is clearly better than the other.
10:41
But if the, if the one side that's worse talent-wise gets a goal first, then they hold, they hope to hold on for dear life. Edmonton scored first last night.
10:50
Um, they got one by Bobrovsky, but then in the scheme of things, the Oilers were just killing off power plays. At one point, it was 34 in a row that they killed off.
11:00
They only had seven shots on goal through the first two periods.
11:04
And in the end, uh, Evan Rodriguez with a couple g- uh, Evan Rodriguez with a couple goals to, uh, make it two to one and then three to one in the third period and then an empty net, or four to one.
11:13
Um, I was just looking through, because it's two to nothing in both the NBA finals and the NHL finals.
11:18
I was looking at the average number of wins in all of the best of seven series this year in the NHL and the NBA playoffs. You ready for this? Mm. Average number of wins for the losing teams in all the best of sevens.
11:30
NHL, 1.57 wins per losing team this year. NHL? Wow. NBA, 1.29. That's how uncompetitive this has been, bottom line. That's not including the current two-nothing series. That's just before this.
11:48
We're coming back with Drew Dintig next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Numbers Game, presented by Zyn Nicotine Pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com. Uh, don't forget long shots. Once again, we mentioned this in the first segment. Never to
12:11
Too many times to, uh, promote it again. Long Shots podcast, Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin, US Open betting preview tomorrow noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific, right here after a numbers game.
12:23
Everything broken down for the US Open at Pinehurst. Pinehurst, North Carolina, where Scottie Scheffler, of course, is the, uh, the short shot once again. You think you're gonna have some top fives on Scheffler?
12:35
Yep, that's the way to go. No. Um- I already do. You do already? What, what number did you get? Uh, I b- uh, I bid at a, a bit of minus 135 yesterday, but I'm wait- I'm still waiting for shops to open up in town.
12:47
All right. We'll get, uh, Drew's thoughts on this momentarily. I just wanna... Y- you, uh, you're big... Can you share with people?
12:51
Let me just repeat those stats that I just mentioned, just in terms of this is not a betting thing.
12:55
Um, it could have been a betting thing, but just in retrospect now with both the Stanley Cup Final and the NBA Finals at two to nothing in favor of the Florida Panthers and the Boston Celtics respectively as the, uh, series now head to Edmonton and Dallas respectively.
13:10
The average number of wins per, uh, these best of sevens before the finals, before the respective finals, again, in the NHL is 1.57, so four- so 22 total wins by the losers in 14 series up to this point.
13:24
So 1.57 wins per losing team. And in the NBA this year, and this is the one, this is why I did it, 'cause I was like, how many, how many series did we actually have in these NBA playoffs?
13:33
Eight playoffs where beforehand, remember, we were like, "This is going to be the greatest Western Conference playoffs in the history of Western..." Right? We were saying that. [laughs] Shut up, Kelly.
13:41
I definitely said that like 18 times.
13:43
The total number of wins per losing teams in the 14 series that have taken place in the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference prior to the finals, which is two to nothing, we're not even talking about that yet, 18 in 14 series, 1.29 wins.
14:00
Th- there have only been three series that have gone to the full seven games. That was, uh, Cleveland Orlando, which I'm not sure any human being actually saw that series. Or remembers. [laughs] Or remembers it.
14:10
[laughs] At this point. The, the one I couldn't remember was Indiana and New York went to seven. Yeah. Oh, yeah.
14:13
I forgot, remember, when the, when the broadcast crew was eulogizing the Knicks 10 minutes before the end as if they had won 25 championships. Still one of the best series of the playoffs.
14:23
Uh, and then Minnesota Denver, of course, which is the, uh, the series I would contend ruined the entire playoffs for everybody.
14:27
[laughs] I'm still more surprised by the, uh, still more surprised by the NHL number, but that's just 'cause I've been watching every single one of these NBA games so intently. Yeah. Yeah.
14:36
It has not been, in terms of just a, a non-betting perspective, in terms of just a viewer excitement level, that has not been that great of a, uh, of a spring with both of those.
14:45
Drew Dinsick, though, probably feels differently, 'cause I think he's got the Boston Celtics, so what does he care?
14:49
It's Drew now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, the host of not one, but two podcasts, uh, the Deep Dive with Andy Molitor and, of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher, who was throwing out pictures.
14:59
Jay Croucher, where was he? Was he at the Celtics game? Yeah, he went, uh, on, uh, Sunday. He was, uh, sitting baseline. Uh, great s- great seats [laughs] Nice...
15:08
at the Garden, uh, there to, to, to see the Celtics home, uh, hopefully. Uh, two more left. Two wins left. I want- It's not over yet. It's not over yet. Well, h- you gotta be feeling good though, right?
15:19
Oh, yeah, absolutely. This was massive. Yeah.
15:21
I mean, if something weird was gonna happen in the series, it was gonna be Dallas sticking their foot in the door early and, uh, getting those two wins, particularly game two, because I thought the Celtics played pretty poorly all, all said and, you know, all told.
15:33
Uh, well, at least they shot really poorly. Um, they were getting incredibly good offensive looks on it, felt like every single possession.
15:39
But, uh, really just kind of struggled until the second half to, uh, put the ball through the hoop. And, um, you know, getting that one home.
15:46
Those, those are the kind of games the Celtics lose, have lost in frustrating fashion, uh, throughout this, uh, entire run, uh, of this core. Um, and, uh, seeing that one to the finish line was pretty exciting.
15:58
Now, now they go on the road and they basically have, at least by my number, two coin flips. Um, win one of these coin flips and then, uh, take care of business in game five and we can hang, uh, hang banner number 18.
16:08
Yeah. Um, uh, I'll repeat what I asked of, of folks yesterday. The old adage, of course, is a series doesn't start till someone loses on their home court, which you just, you know, again, pointed out.
16:17
If the Celtics can take one here, maybe the gentleman's sweep is coming. But is there anything, I'll ask you to take off your Celtics hat for a second. Sure. Is there anything,
16:27
if you're, if you're a Mavericks backer or a Mavericks fan, what do you hang your hat on in those first two games? Like, how do you talk yourself into this?
16:37
I mean, I think if you're a, if you're a Mavericks backer or a fan, you're looking at the shooting statistics and you're saying, "It can't get worse." [laughs] It can only improve. [laughs] Yeah.
16:49
Uh, because they have been obscenely poor, uh, shooting the ball. And- 13, 13 of 53 from three- [laughs] Yeah... by the way. Yeah. 13 of 53. 24.5%. Yeah.
17:01
And you know, the, the higher the stakes in the playoffs, the more of, uh, you know, kind of the role player bump comes at home rather than on the road.
17:10
Um, and so if, you know, if the adjustment of, you know, role players play better, uh, if that comes through in games three and game four, you might get a little bit of a surge.
17:20
Um, but, uh, I mean, f- you know, at, from a s- from an X's and O's, from a strategy standpoint, watching the games, it feels like such an clear and obvious mismatch in so many ways. I'm not sure what the Mavericks do.
17:32
Um, kind of spitballing, you know, well, what are some solutions? H- how do they get the offense going? Well, do, do they need, uh, some P.J. Washington at the five?
17:41
Do we need to get Tim Hardaway out on the floor with these guys to have more shooting? Uh, can D- you know, is, is Derrick Jones Jr., uh, you know, his, his reluctance to fire, uh, is that a problem?
17:51
Do you need to get him off the floor? Like, all three of those questions you ask, and, like, that unlocks all of the offense for the Celtics.
17:59
And so then you just have turned it into, um, you know, a, a full on, [laughs] uh, shootout, and you're just hoping to, crossing your fingers that you make the threes and you win the shootout.
18:09
But, um, you know, the, the moments of games one and two where it felt like The Mavericks had a bit of an advantage was when the game really slowed down to a slog.
18:18
The Celtics weren't really getting into their offensive sets. They weren't getting good looks. They weren't getting into their offensive movements, uh, early enough in the shot clock to make 'em, make them matter.
18:27
Um, and, you know, I think the Mavericks could not take advantage of that by turning around those, uh, those solid defensive possessions and, and creating offense.
18:37
Uh, so, uh, yeah, I, I think the, the, all of the answers to the tough questions in this series for the Mavericks are, are bad.
18:45
Um, and, you know, the fact that, uh, you know, their most important offensive weapon in Luka is their biggest defensive liability is, uh, really kind of fundamentally, um, you know, the key crux of the problem here.
18:58
Um, the Mavericks have gotten here in a lot of ways by exploiting the corner three. Uh, the Celtics are the best team in the NBA by margin at taking away the corner three.
19:07
Uh, they allow one per game, which is ironically what they have given up to, to this point in the series.
19:13
Um, and so the Mavericks not getting those free, free opportunities or those, you know, plus EV shots from the corner, uh, and forcing most of the open looks for the Mavericks to be above the break, uh, has been a huge, um, you know, huge kind of, in my opinion, tactical advantage for the Celtics in this one.
19:29
And, um, you know, without the shooters to be able to punish them above the break, I'm not sure what you do, uh, if you're the Mavericks.
19:35
And, you know, the, there's been a lot of interesting kind of str- strategery on the Mav- on the Mavericks part, uh, you know, putting two on Tatum for a lot of their defensive sets.
19:45
And, uh, you know, Tatum has obviously not really shown up on the, in the box score from a shooting or a points standpoint, but he's been, uh, absolutely diabolical from a, you know, an assist, a drive and assist, drive and dish, uh, role.
19:59
Um, and if the Mavericks pivot away from having two on Tatum, if, if that unlocks him a little bit offensively, it wouldn't shock me.
20:06
So, um, yeah, you're, you're kind of left with nothing but bad options here if you're a Mav- Mav- uh, if you're the Mavericks coaching staff.
20:13
And, um, I think you're just crossing your fingers that the switch to the venue helps with your shooting, uh, and you get some of that role player, uh, home cooking, uh, where those guys just play better because, um, you need the Celtics to, to take a step backwards and your team to take a step forward to close the gap, in my opinion.
20:33
Uh, five and 31. Five and 31 is the all-time record for teams, uh, trying to overcome a two to nothing deficit in the history of the NBA Finals. Five and 31.
20:44
Again, the last team to do so, the 2021 Bucs with Giannis against Phoenix. Uh, the LeBron Cavaliers, who can forget that, against Golden State, where Golden State went scoreless in the last 4:40 of game seven.
20:55
LeBron with the iconic block of Andre Iguodala's shot. Um, the Heat in 2006, Bill Walton's Blazers in 1977, and the Celtics in 1969. In each one of those five cases,
21:06
the team that was down two to nothing lost the first two on the road. So this is, you know, this would... If the Mavericks are able to do it, this is still the formula, if you will, to do so.
21:18
Obviously, you don't wanna be part of this formula, but it's, it's how the other five got there as well.
21:23
Um, and let me just ask this in the last minute, we'll, we'll talk other sports here on the other side, but just from a, a non-betting, from a historical standpoint.
21:29
The Celtics now, when you put regular season and post-season record together, are 78 and 20. And I know they had the royal flush of injuries that they played here in the playoffs.
21:38
[laughs] Um, but if they end up, let's say it's a gentleman's sweep, if they end up 80 and 21, do you rank this, like per your numbers, do you rank this as one of the great teams of all time, or is it just a team that was really good that just had a lot of good fortune as well?
21:54
I, I mean, on paper they are a super team. [laughs] We, we, I think we've even made these, this commentary on this show.
22:02
Uh, but, uh, from the start of the season, you put the pieces together and the ratings together, there's, there's no minuses.
22:08
Everybody's a plus on both sides of the floor except for Al Horford is a small minus offensively. Everyone else is a plus on both sides of the floor who matters, and that's crazy.
22:18
Uh, and, you know, it's just from a roster building standpoint, it's the perfect roster for this day and age in the NBA, and the fact that they weren't tested, I think, just afforded us opportunities to get prices on the finals that, uh, were pretty obscene, I think, in hindsight.
22:32
You don't think all those Warriors team crushed them? [laughs] I'm just curious. I do. Like, in my head, the way I remember it, but, you know, we'll never know. We'll never know.
22:40
I don't know that, I don't know that they'll be all-time great, but- Yeah... but, uh, they, they are a super team on paper. Okay. We'll come back. Drew on tennis and golf and more next.
22:48
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:00
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
23:09
It is Kelly Bittling, everybody, producer, number nine, and as we learned last hour, quite the hockey handicapper. Quite the hockey handicapper. Stuart Skinner. He can't possibly win the Stanley Cup. Minus Olmark.
23:21
Uh, still to come this hour, Paul Spore on baseball.
23:24
I'm gonna, uh, throw some of those Brooksgate, uh, tweets that we mentioned and some still to come at him, see what he thinks about that, including that strange Milwaukee Brewers starting thing.
23:33
Uh, so we'll get into some baseball. We'll also talk NBA Finals, MVP. Kelly will have his US Open thoughts at Pinehurst as well. Uh, pre-Long Shots preview.
23:43
You gonna, like, give up the farm on this show before Long Shots? You can't do that.
23:46
No, see, what's, what's so great is I can't even if I wanted to, Gil, because, you know, Vegas still ha- doesn't have, like, odds posted, so, you know, it's fun.
23:54
[laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, when we get legalized wagering, sports wagering here in the state of Nevada, this is gonna be one heck of a place to live. Watch out. One heck of a place.
24:04
Uh, we are really thrilled to have our next guest on with us. First time on the show. Uh, he is, uh, multiple accolades.
24:10
First of all, he's a golfer in his own right, which we can get into, but he's the host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at Rollerballer PGA.
24:18
It's Byron Lindaque, everybody, joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Byron? I am doing amazing, guys. First time caller, longtime listener. [laughs] Happy to be on the show, you know?
24:29
I've always wanted to say that about a nice show that I've really admired and, and really learned so much stuff from you guys.
24:34
So hoping I can bring a little bit of my niche market to, to the people that you guys service so generously. Oh, that's so nice of you to say. By the way, you're at The Model Maniac.
24:43
I love that Twitter handle, The Model Maniac. Proudly displaying the South African flag over, uh, his left shoulder there. Um, let us start, first of all, the, the golf a- the golf resume that you have, real quick.
24:55
You play the sport of golf, and you did so to some degree, right? I did.
25:00
I came over as a nice, strapping youngster from South Africa, and found myself at William Penn University trying to play in a different country, and realizing that South African golf is totally different to Iowa.
25:13
And the wind, they put pretty much golf courses wherever they couldn't put a farm, and that's just the hilliest place possible.
25:19
And it's, it's been a fun experience, and kind of just bringing that over to the betting side of things now is, is a fun, fun little nuance that I can bring. It's a beautiful thing.
25:28
So Kelly and I, we, we were texting before the show, uh, yesterday actually, and, uh, he was talking about a, uh, Pat Mayo podcast that you did where you were talking about just sort of looking back on your season, finishing position bets from the entire season, odds related to them, and some sort of macro things that you revealed.
25:48
So before we get to your US Open thoughts here at Pinehurst, maybe that's a nice entree into this. You think that that revealed something that, that is related here. Correct.
25:57
There were, there were two instances where I kind of noticed the ties paid in full in golf betting, when you're looking to bet top 20s and top 10s, can really get nasty. You know, dead heats can ruin your Sunday.
26:08
Oh, yeah. They can ruin your Thursday as well. You know, those first round leaders- [laughs]... they get chopped, baby. Um, so trying to find a way to avoid having your, your hard-earned profits.
26:18
Golf betting, you're betting on a bunch of weirdos and freaks that kind of you never know what they're gonna show up like. They don't know what they're gonna do.
26:23
So you need to make sure that when you capitalize, you capitalize. And, and ties paid in full really helps those T, T-19s pay out full for your, your, your T-20 bets.
26:32
And I kind of noticed that the, the way the odds kind of worked, the more negative the odds were, the, the more profitable you'd be if you went without ties paid in full, and kind of enjoyed the dead heat risk.
26:46
But because the odds of the bet were kind of a little more negative, implying a bit more of a higher than a 50% rate of implied probability,
26:55
you, you tend to find that the dead heat rules weren't applied to those specific bets as much as the plus money, plus 150, plus 200, because those kind of golfers are gonna be flirting with the upper tier of the dead heat reduction range, versus if you're betting somewhat minus 150, minus 175, they, they tend to find themselves like minus...
27:14
or like T-12 in a top 20 market kind of thing, and, and kind of avoid those dead heat reductions just because they're that much better of a golfer. And I've really taken this market by,
27:25
by the Scottie Scheffler horns, because he's kind of taken the golf market by storm.
27:30
He's been robbing us of outright profit, and trying to capitalize on Scottie Scheffler's incredible form right now is tricky because everything about Scottie Scheffler.
27:38
He's 3-1 to win a, a US Open, which is what Tiger Woods was kind of doing. He's negative 115 to finish top five in a 156-man field. I'm all about taking negative odds on Scottie Scheffler.
27:51
If you're looking at Scottie Scheffler over the last year, he's returned, if you're looking to bet $100 to make $100 off a bet for Scottie Scheffler, he's returned over $1,000 in the last 12 months in the top five and top 10 market.
28:05
Uh, the top 20 market also, but you're gonna be really having to lay some serious juice there, but I've enjoyed it.
28:12
I, I cashed in a minus 260 bet on him last week when he, when he won the tournament again, and pretty much subsidized my entire outright card.
28:19
So that's how I'm kind of using Scottie Scheffler to protect myself from himself. We were having this discussion off air.
28:24
You said there's a bit of reticence in the golf markets to put minus money on these players to begin with. So I guess what you're saying is inherent, there's still tons of value on Scheffler.
28:34
Is that what you're getting at? I would say so, yes. I think any... You gotta just make sure that you're figuring out, like, the implied probabilities of all of this stuff.
28:42
I, I keep track of, of what Scottie's, you know, historical T10, T20 rates are, and there's edges.
28:49
And the way certain s- courses, obviously, you kind of mix guys in, and there's, there's specific venues that kind of suit them better. But Scottie is so bulletproof, you can just pretty much play him anywhere.
28:59
And to me, when you're betting on one of the best golfers in the world, you're kind of finding yourself making a bit more money than usual because of those negative odds.
29:06
You gotta put your pride in your pocket and just bet those negative odds on Scottie Scheffler. All right. So Byron, then, uh, break down the US Open for us.
29:13
What, uh, characteristics are you looking for in golfers, and how did you end up betting this? Okay. So the characteristics I'm looking for are everything.
29:22
[laughs] Whatever you can bring to the party, you're gonna need this week, because it's gonna be hell. It's gonna be difficult. It's gonna be crispy. It's gonna be slick. It's gonna be hot.
29:31
You're gonna have to make sure that you can have mental resiliency. You wanna make sure you can kind of bounce back from bogeys.
29:37
You gotta be very comfortable with not even making a birdie, potentially, on a specific day. So I think you're looking for a mental...
29:45
You're not looking for mental midgets, you're looking for mental monstrosities this week, and I think trying to find that is the hardest part, because you can't really model a mental aspect of a golfer's mind.
29:55
But, you know, watching like we do, you know, ESPN Plus, you can watch 12 hours of golf a day, uh, four days a week, and it's, it's a great time to kind of use your eyes to kind of make those decisions for weeks like this, where modeling is a bit more difficult because there's so many important areas of the game that are necessary this week that you can't really clump specific types of golfers into certain buckets.
30:18
I think ball strikers will succeed if they're elite in that department. I think scramblers, short game specialists like Cam Smith will be chipping and putting their way to, to incredible results if things go right.
30:28
I think you can find many avenues to victory, and we've seen this in the past with, with the likes of Payne Stewart and, and the, and Michael Campbell, et cetera, you know?
30:37
So it's a, it's a golf course that allows many golfers to kind of participate in the pursuit of a U.S. Open Championship. What outrights did you land on? Oh, boy. Okay.
30:47
So I've gone with outrights that pay each ways to a three-place market, because
30:54
my outrights are gonna be going up against Scottie most likely, and I wanna make sure that I'm getting subsidized if my guy finishes a runner-up to the man. So I've gone Collin Morikawa at 20 to one, three places.
31:05
I've gone Sahith Theegala. I got that as a, a 60 to one bet right now. I've been in on Brooks. I think Brooksie at 25, 22 to one right now on the markets is...
31:16
Brooks Koepka is a five-time major champion, and he specializes in U.S. Opens and PGA Championships. These are what he does.
31:24
It's the only two majors I think he's won, and he also really thrives, his, like, brain stem really gets lit up when a golf course is difficult. That's why he kind of struggled at the PGA when it got to minus 21.
31:36
But Brooksie, I, I'm liking his chances this week. He's, he's always a threat in majors, and 25 to one is just a ridiculous number on a five-time major champion. So I think I'm a fan of that. Um, Tom Kim.
31:49
If you think about Tom Kim, he's out there in the 90s and the 80s, depending on where you find that. He's incredible in majors. He's a youngster.
31:56
He's only turning 22 later this June, so he'll be playing this tournament in his second U.S. Open as a 21-year-old, and he's been incredible.
32:04
He finished second at the Open Championship, and I'm looking for guys that have top 10 records in majors because that's what you need to win these, these things. And, and having major experience is essential.
32:14
Tom Kim, in his infancy, really does have that already now. So there's lots of good golfers that I'm really in the mood for.
32:19
I think I've got some Keegan Bradley as well, because I've just bet these guys in this 25 to 60, 80 range,
32:26
hoping that these placements pay out, hoping Scottie stumbles across the line and, and one of these guys can get it taken care of for us. All right.
32:33
Morikawa, Theegala, Koepka, Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley, uh, those mentioned here by Byron Lindiquist. We got about, uh, 90 seconds left, Byron. Uh, top fives, top tens, match-ups, first-round bets. What else did you do?
32:47
Absolutely. Let's go ahead and do a Hideki Matsuyama top 30 at even money. I got that at plus 115 earlier. He's been doing this. In U.S.
32:57
Opens, Hideki Matsuyama has gained more strokes on approach than Scottie Scheffler has this year, so that's incredible. I think he's gonna do wonderful things there.
33:06
If I'm taking a look at some other bets I've made, I wanna go into the market with, um, like I mentioned, Scottie Scheffler. I'm, I'm betting him top 10 at minus 190, minus 200. I'm totally cool with that bet.
33:18
So going there is fine. And then Sahith Theegala, if you're looking for a little bit of a long shot fun bet, plus 900, Sahith Theegala for a top five. He's a flashy golfer.
33:28
He's got that ability to kind of just really dig in deep and, and make some, make something happen for us. So plus 900, Sahith Theegala. Uh- 9 to one on Theegala top five.
33:38
Um, and then real quick, is there a golfer that, to use the horse racing term, is a throwout for you, someone who you just absolutely have no interest in backing in any way? Sam Burns has got five PGA Tour victories.
33:50
He's got one top 20 in a major, and it was a T20. That just doesn't make any sense to me. I bet Cameron Young against, uh, Sam Burns last week.
33:59
Cam Young just made the cut, sucked it up, but still beat Sam because Sam missed another major cut. Byron Lindiquist, host of Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at RotoBaller PGA. Byron, a pleasure, man.
34:11
Thanks so much for making the time. Thank you so much, guys. Thank you so much for having me. Byron Lindiquist. And the, and the accent, the South African accent, uh, means more to me, quite frankly.
34:22
Just makes our show s- uh, sound way more intelligent, you know? Yeah. Erudite, if you will. Yes. Stu Skinner. [laughs] That's right. We appreciate that from Byron.
34:31
Coming back, uh, NBA Finals, MVP talk, more of these, uh, Brooks baseball nuggets as well. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:48
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:52
We are this close to crowning an NBA champ, but with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
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35:10
Gil Alexander, Kelly Vidalon, uh, son of Thad Vidalon, we learned earlier today on the show. That's right. You ever mention your dad's name on the show before? I think I have. All right. I think I have.
35:21
Um- Dad's out here a couple times a year, yeah. He loves coming. I've never met you, never met your dad. Trying to think if you did at the South Point or not. I don't think I did. I'd remember that.
35:31
He, he wasn't, wasn't overly excited the past two times to come down and see us at the D early in the morning. He wasn't. [laughs] So we, we, we talk about, like, family and family and friends on the show all the time.
35:40
Yeah. But it is amazing how, like, we talk about how we still just get texts during the show, and it's like- Yeah... these people so know I'm on air, like, right now. Like, they have known this forever.
35:49
Th- Th- Thad's funny 'cause he loves sports, too, and he- Yeah... you know, he'll put a bet down or two. Uh, but, uh, once he checks it out a couple times, good enough for him. Yeah. He's got other things to do.
35:57
All right. Okay, cool. Um, I apologize for geeking out, uh, baseball-wise on the show today, but I find this stuff fascinating. Let's do a few more of these, uh, tweets.
36:06
Um, and we got, and I gotta reach out to, uh, Brooks, this Brooks gate character, 'cause these are great. Uh, let's go to the next one.
36:13
Should I call it out, Kelly, or do you want me to, uh, just, uh, just roll with whatever it throws out there? Wanna do the ballpark one? Yeah, we'll do the ballpark one. [laughs] Okay. Let's do the ballpark one.
36:21
[laughs] Uh, this is interesting because, again, with your daily handicapping, uh, primarily this should, you know, this has to do with totals, uh, quite frankly.
36:30
But certain ballparks, right, ballpark factor oftentimes is consistent from year to year. Oftentimes it is not. Um, by the way, shout out Roxie Roxborough, the famous-
36:42
most beautifully dressed person in any sports book, but also the founder, of course, of Las Vegas Sports Consultants and friend to all of us here. Uh, Roxy, the very first guest ever on a Numbers game.
36:52
Day one, spent the whole hour with me. Um, he was the first baseball bettor to really figure out on a large scale that different ballparks played differently. Imagine that.
37:04
Um, but here's, here's the stadium that each team would have the most and least home runs in this year, assuming they played every game there.
37:13
So they're taking the length, the distance, I should say, of every home run hit by all 30 Major League clubs, and if you juxtapo- if you, if you superimposed, pardon me, those, you know, like a spray chart, right, into every ballpark, which ballpark would have produced the most home runs?
37:31
So like, I... Baseball at its basics are so silly with that. But here's the thing. Here's what you need to know. This is strictly about home runs.
37:39
What you will find is that the ballpark that has produced the most home runs clearly across the board is Dodger Stadium, Chavez Ravine. Second place is the Great American Small Park in Cincinnati, right?
37:53
Where there's three examples of that. Uh, but 27... No, 26 other ballpark, uh, other teams would've hit their most home runs at Dodger Stadium. Now, most people think of Dodger Stadium as a pitcher's park.
38:07
Not when it comes to home runs. And the converse of that is where are the, what's the park with the least home runs if you, again, superimposed everybody's home runs into all the different ballparks? Fenway Park.
38:22
Short porch over the Monster is one thing, right? But the fact is that the way that Fenway's dimensions are, of course with the Monster,
38:30
the fewest amount of home runs would actually be hit at Fenway, which you think of as a hitter's park. So just know- That is interesting... so just know when it comes to home runs, they actually play completely opposite.
38:42
It's Chavez Ravine that is the home run park, and it is Fenway that is the least home run parky, if you will, of all ballparks. But- Now, what if I was just stacked with like left, you know, left bats?
38:53
Okay, well that's what they try to do. Right. But still hasn't worked out that way. It's not enough to, to overcompensate. Let's go to the next one. We got two more of these. Wherever you wanna go, Kelly.
39:03
Should I call it out? We'll go to the clutch rating. Have you, have you noticed that new trend, we talked about this on air, the new trend in broadcasting where they shout out the number of the graphic now?
39:11
[laughs] Yeah. It's like a deal. There's an entire news network where the anchors openly now go, "Can I get five? Can I get five?" [laughs] It's not annoying at all. It's totally a deal. Uh, here's one.
39:22
This is clutch rating. This is, this is coming called clutch rating and their most clutch player from team to team. Um, now this is, you're saying, "Okay, well what def- what defines, what defines clutch rating?"
39:36
Uh, well, I'm glad you asked. According to FanGraphs, you ready for this? Paul Sporer works there.
39:41
The majority of players in the league end up with clutch scores between one and minus one, with zero being neutral, Kelly. Positive scores being clutch, negative scores being choke.
39:50
[laughs] Only a few players each year are lucky enough or unlucky enough to have extreme clutch scores.
39:56
So when you look at this one right here, and this plays out because, again, I had the Guardians for most wins in March, April, and most wins in May.
40:04
One of the reasons that I got off of them in June is 'cause I recognized watching all these Guardians games just with my, the eye test, that they were extremely good in high leverage situations, both offensively and defensively, and this bears out in the numbers.
40:18
So this is not quite up to date. This is from a few days ago, but the Cleveland Guardians by far have been the most clutch team in baseball. A plus 4.20 collective score.
40:31
David Fry happens to be their most clutch player, and again, if you watch Guardians games, you're like, "Yes, he has been." Plus 4.20. That's almost two points higher than the next most clutch team, the St.
40:43
Louis Cardinals. We're talking offense and defense here. You know who is the, the least clutch team up to this point in baseball? The team that I have in June. Oh. The Houston Astros.
40:52
No, but that's the point, is like that's a good thing for me to have them in June. They just can't hold a damn lead after the seventh inning- Right, right... uh, the last couple days. But they have been the least clutch.
41:02
Sadly, so when you bet these things, you're looking for it to regress, right? The, the takeaway from this ought not to be, "Oh, Cleveland has continued to be so clutch, they'll always be clutch.
41:14
Oh, Houston has continued to be the least clutch team in all of baseball, they'll continue to suck in big moments." That will typically regress.
41:23
Sometimes it does not, but you should know all of these things for your handicapping. And then the final one that we have, um, this is related. This is, uh, what is this? The worst in high leverage situations?
41:34
What is this one, Kelly? I lost the last one here. This is the final one we have. Oh, no, this is the... Oh, can we do the, uh...
41:42
Yeah, let's do OPS with, uh, runners in scoring position, OPS against with runners in scoring position. We won't spend too much time on this one because you will get y- the expected results here.
41:53
Essentially, you're looking that, that high right quadrant is the teams that are really good on offense with runners in scoring position and really good when the other team is in r- uh, in runners in scoring position situations.
42:04
They, they stifle those opportunities. It's the, it's the teams you would expect. It's the Yankees, it's the Phillies, it's the Orioles, it's the Royals, it's the Guardians, it's the Brewers, right?
42:15
And in the far left bottom, you see the White Sox and the Athletics. That one is the least surprising of all of them. I do wanna to touch on this last one from Brooks Kate.
42:24
Missed ball strikes calls this year for every team, higher number equals team helped by bad calls, okay? So they have tracked the missed calls by umpires over the course of the whole year.
42:36
Who has, uh, been the most fortunate? Who has been the least fortunate?
42:40
By far the most fortunate, and again, I, because I watch so many Guardians game, I can say with my eye test this is absolutely true, the Guardians were at plus 94, Kelly. Plus 94.
42:52
That means 94 to the positive when you net them out. They've gotten the best of ball strikes calls that were, that could've gone either way or were just plain wrong. And, and watching those games- Take it.
43:03
You'll take it... you're, I, no, I rem- I remember I mentioned a game against the Twins where there was like 12 bad calls. Yeah. 11 went their way. Wow. Right?
43:11
By the way, the Yankees, because they're the Yankees of course, are second tied with the Mariners at plus 71.
43:16
Ha- have you looked at, have you looked, like, ch- at, at charts like this, s- like, regularly during seasons before? No. Okay. These are, these are unique, and this is why I bring it up.
43:25
Th- some of them, yes, but this one, like this one right here- Oh, see this is fascinating... this is, I, I've never seen anybody have it quite tracked this way.
43:32
Who was the, the least fortunate on missed, uh, uh, balls and strikes? The Houston Astros. Hmm. Minus 65. Well, that kinda answers my question.
43:41
I was gonna go with, like, do, you know, would the Yankees always be on the high end of that list? Maybe. Maybe. Like, you know, LeBron's always getting calls. But you get an insight to,
43:50
you know, I was on the Guardians in March, April, and in May,
43:55
but part of the reasoning of getting off them is 'cause I knew they got the best of it with not only calls, but also on high leverage situations, and the Astros were the opposite.
44:05
Now, will the Astros manifest this quickly in June? Uh, not so much so far. But anyway, these are fascinating, fascinating stats, so, uh, shout out, and I got a, I'm gonna reach out to him, get him on the show.
44:15
Uh, but these are just absolutely ga- uh, great, again, from Brooks Gate on Twitter. Uh, Kelly, real quick, 60 seconds, 'cause I know you gotta r- sprint across town now to do long shots.
44:26
Um, you have made- Still got a few hours... you have made one bet so far? Got a few hours, yeah. Still gotta shop around. I, I, I've, I've got pretty much think my entire card f- uh,
44:36
filled out, but the, uh, of who I plan to bet, but I gotta shop around prices now. Um, waiting for shops still to post. But yeah, Scottie Scheffler I did bet a top five on already. Um- Number? With a room to add.
44:47
I, I bet him at minus 135 ties paid in full, um, on that one. I'm probably gonna, uh, I'll probably add on to him 'cause I think there's gonna be a shop or two, probably Circa, that posts.
44:56
I'll be able to get a little bit number, uh, better number on. Um, so him I know I'll be betting top 10, and Xander went back and tracked, uh, went back and tracked.
45:04
Have bet that in eight tournaments so far this year, cashed in six. Wow. He is, he is c- if you've bet it every time, he's cashed in eight of 10 of those. 10 times he's finished inside the top 10.
45:15
And we can no longer say bad things about Xander. He's been incredible. No. He's been incredible. I, I, I think he's gonna actually have a really good week. I like him this week.
45:22
I love Colin Morikawa again this week too. It's a lot, very similar to my card last week. Kelly's gonna go record long shots. Gojo and Golick next on the radio side. Best bets on the picture side. Enjoy from Visa.
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