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Jun 11, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 11, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 11, 2025
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45:38
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis.
0:13
It's the Sharp Plays, real-time global betting information, as well as alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to check 'em out, sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
0:24
Uh, Nick @realnicksi says, uh, "Hey Kelly, we have a combo Taco Bell/Long John Silver's- Oh, God... a few minutes from me.
0:31
Nothing goes better with a burrito and three soft tacos than a dozen hush puppies, especially [laughs] at 1:00 a.m." What's a-- I bet they make a great fish taco, though. Long John Silver's.
0:40
When, when's the last time you've eaten at a Long John Silver's? Ugh, I don't think I've ever. I think that might be the first time. I, I was j- I was just gonna say, I don't know that I ever have in my entire life.
0:48
And I remember there was one growing up, and I never went in there. Uh, Darren Prince. Good for them for still being around. That's right.
0:56
Uh, Darren Prince, "With the riots in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have a 10-game at-home series starting Friday. Could MLB move the games?" Uh, that's an interesting question that I had not considered.
1:07
Um, obviously depending on location and severity, uh, the only historical precedent for this is the Rodney King riots in 1992.
1:16
Uh, the Dodgers canceled and later rescheduled several home games, I remember that, and the Lakers moved a playoff game to Vegas, uh, due to the severity of that situation.
1:27
So that's, that's the historical precedent, but we'll see. We'll see what happens. It's a, it's a good thing to bring up. Yeah, I mean, o- obviously you'd hate to see it happen- Yeah...
1:34
but you can't, we can't sit here right now and say there's a 0% chance of that happening. Uh, let's point. Uh, what's it, Brandon Webb, "2019 Blues, least points in the league at the All-Star break."
1:44
Oh, talking about, I guess he's talking about the question, what's the most... Uh, w- we were, what we were talking about was the most amazing playoff run, but yes, the 2019 Blues, I guess- Yeah...
1:52
from just being so average so late into the season, it, it was unique in that way. I think that's what he's reacting to. How, how could you have forgotten about them, Gil? Come on.
2:00
[laughs] You mean the team that won it after the Capitals did? That's all I remember them as. Um, let's see. Charl- uh, Charles, we'll get to that one later. Let's, let's bring in Will Hill.
2:10
Will Hill, ladies and gentlemen, he's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, available where you get all your podcasts.
2:16
He's also the star of the Beating the Book Make a Pod, and of course, Chris Fallica's Bear Bets podcast empire over there at Fox Sports.
2:23
You can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill, and he's a co-host here at VSiN Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday, Sunday. He does it all. It's Will Hill, everybody. How you doing? Boys, what's going on?
2:34
Gilly, nice to have you back.
2:35
It, it's funny you bring that up 'cause I was thinking the same thing with the, uh, with the Dodgers possibly moving the games or, uh, another option, I don't know if you remember this, it was about a decade ago, the Orioles played the White Sox, it was in Baltimore.
2:47
They played in an empty stadium because- Yes... there was something that happened, uh, s- I, I forget, c- civil unrest I guess would be the best way- Mm-hmm... to put it.
2:55
There was some incident where they couldn't properly, you know, guarantee security, so they just, they played in an empty building, which, uh, was a, I guess, a sign of things to come, you know, five years later [laughs] with COVID.
3:04
But that was, uh, very strange at the time, where you just, it was the ballplayers, it was the umpires, and it was, you know, coaches, managers, and, and nobody else. I don't know if that would be an option.
3:13
Here's a- Every- everybody should just play in Sacramento, clearly. That's what we figured. Clearly. That's where baseball should be housed. Clearly. I'll take a road trip.
3:20
Uh, by the way, we were talking a little bit about this off air. Here are the MLB June most wins, and we update these every day here on the show.
3:27
Uh, the Mets, Blue Jays, and Giants all 7-2 atop the leaderboard in June, and there are our Detroit Tigers in fourth place right now at 6-3, uh, with a plus nine run differential.
3:39
But I just wanna seize on the Giants right there, Will, 'cause this is what you brought up. The, the San Francisco Giants are 7-2. Look at that one run column. Six and two in one-run games. That's crazy.
3:50
The last six games they have won by a run, by a singular run. Uh, unsustainable, I believe- [laughs]... is what we call that. But nonetheless, you bank the wins, and there they are. Um, Will, what about them?
4:03
Sustainable or not? Uh, probably not. And by the way, for the audience, I had to twist Gil's arm very hard to, uh, to get him to bring up the Giants. [laughs] He resisted, I insisted. We went back and forth.
4:14
Finally, he's like- I was like, "We can't talk about them"... "You know what? We'll bring, we'll, we'll, we'll talk about the Giants."
4:17
Yeah, and for anyone just figuring out a way to, uh, to fade the Rockies as a free p- free, you know, parlay piece, a, a spot on the bingo card, just, you know, f- fade the Rockies somehow.
4:27
And if you went to bed early last night, you woke up with a nice little surprise with the Giants, I think four runs in the ninth. Uh, I, I don't know that they swing the bats well enough. Chapman just went on the IL.
4:35
But look, the NL has been, uh, look, the Dodgers have been disappointing. The Padres have been disappointing at times. The, the Diamondbacks, uh, have, haven't lived up to expectations. Now they're not gonna have Burns.
4:45
You know, it's funny, a lot of these teams, just really in general in baseball, uh, ha- have not lived up to expectations. Braves were what, 93 and a half? And, um, get to them in a minute with one of my plays.
4:56
Uh, 93 and a half wins, they're 10 games under. The Red Sox, the Rangers, the Diamondbacks, the Orioles, they, you got a lot, a lot of disappointing teams in baseball, more than I can remember in past years.
5:06
Yeah, I mean, some of those teams, like the Reds, when you look at, and we'll, we'll get into these when we do some props in a bit, but it's, you know, the Reds should probably have a better record based on Pythagorean, based on base runs.
5:18
So even though they are, what, they're 35 and 33, they probably ought to be a few games, if not four games, better than that.
5:25
Um, the Red Sox are also a team that probably should have a better record than they do based on run production and, and run allowance and also run sequencing.
5:34
But right then you have to go to the p- personnel part of things and you're like, okay, well, that's one thing sort of abstractly, but, you know, that's what their record is.
5:43
Doesn't matter what they should or should not have been. And then you don't have Bregman and you're like, can they really, you know, and, and who knows when he's back, right? It's gonna be a while.
5:52
So, uh, yeah, there's a lot of these teams where it's like it's, it's too bad. You, maybe you should've been better, but you're not. Yeah, that too, and, and look, the Orioles were what, 91, 92?
6:02
They're over under for wins and, and they're looking at 13 games under 500.
6:05
It's just a lot of these teams are, like you're saying, they're underperforming based on, you know, the runs scored, runs allowed, but some of the, the preseason expectations are just not matching, so Interesting.
6:15
We're, uh, you know, getting to the point where these teams, I mean, I, I've said this about the Braves. The season's long, there's a lot of time left. The season's long. The season is not eternal. Right.
6:24
Now, I understand the Tigers and the Mets last year, uh, look, the Mets were one of the worst teams this time last year, and they were two wins away from a World Series. The Tigers just completely came out of nowhere.
6:33
So it can happen, but just, uh, y- you're almost putting yourself in a position where you're some of these teams where there's no coming back from it. Can you fact-check Willie if a season is eternal?
6:41
Can you fact-check him on that, please? Uh, it is not. Yeah, it feels that way sometimes. It is not. All right, what did you say? You have a Braves play? Was that what you teased at? I did play the Braves.
6:50
Uh, Schwahnbach going against Patrick. It's in the 140, 145 range.
6:55
Uh, I just think better pitcher, better lineup, and, um, you know, Brewers really haven't swung the bats well recently, haven't swung the bats well at home, for whatever that's worth, uh, recently.
7:04
So I think this price is okay to lay with Atlanta. And look, uh, gotta, gotta, gotta come at some point here if you're laying... I have a hard time believing the run is not coming at some point.
7:13
There's just too much talent. But again, you're 10 games under. I mean, they have one more win than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're two games ahead of the Marlins. They're two games behind the Nats.
7:22
[laughs] They're trailing basically everybody- That's nuts... in the National League. So if the run's gonna come, it's gotta come at some point.
7:28
Plus, you gotta give your front office a reason to, uh, you know, believe here. But I, I do think this is a pretty favorable matchup here for Atlanta. Anything else in baseball today? Uh, I did play the Phillies.
7:37
I know Luzardo has not been great. He's been very shaky the last two starts. But before that he was dominant.
7:43
Uh, Cubs, the last six weeks or so, have been shaky against left-handed pitching, so I think this is a good spot for Luzardo to bounce back.
7:49
Phillies are another team, they're not really swinging the bats as well as you'd expect with all those names you recognize in that lineup. Uh, they are now tr- five back of the Mets.
7:56
I know a lot of people before the season, Joe P., a bunch of people saying, "Hey, they're getting older. Uh, they're a team on the decline."
8:02
That's starting to look accurate, but I think this is a good spot to, uh, to back the Phillies. And I did take the Marlins plus a half a run in the first five.
8:10
Quantrill's been pretty solid lately, the Marlins pitcher, going against Falters, who's got decent numbers, but just doesn't have the stuff. He doesn't, you know, blow you away with his stuff.
8:18
So to me, this is one of these games where, uh, I love getting the half run in the first five. Uh, so often it's 2-2 after five, and you, you win with that hook, which feels really good.
8:26
So I will take the half run here with the first five, uh, Miami. That's, that's what, that's what Wishnev, Wishnev, uh, describes as a Willie special, the plus half a run- Yes... in the first five. Will loves those.
8:34
And then PSA, that one starts early, right, uh, Will? That is- Yeah. Yeah. 12:35 Eastern, I think. A couple hours. Love it. Yeah.
8:41
Um, by the way, Charles in Connecticut, Hoop Homer, he tweeted and he goes, "Curious to hear your thoughts on the Dodgers using a position player starting in the sixth inning last night.
8:48
Don't we have to take a glance now any time they're losing by five plus in the seventh inning or later for a possible live bet?" Um, I would just broaden that.
8:56
How many times do you think that comes up in our group chat where we're like, "Oh, position player alert"? Not nightly, but like how many times a week would we say at this point?
9:05
How often does it come up versus how often does it actually cash? Right. 'Cause so often you- Yeah. [laughs]...
9:09
you pinpoint it and say, "Oh man, they're gonna go to a position player," and some guy comes in throwing 26 miles per hour and gets him one, two, three, and you just wanna just throw your remote control through the TV.
9:17
It's so true. I do these, like- It's so true... is there a, is there a, obviously you guys have your group chat. I, is there, there's gotta be a Twitter account out there, right?
9:24
Like, I need that notification set up of like- Yeah... position player in. Like, I need that T- uh, Twitter account. MLB position player, that's the whole account. That's all they do. That's all they do.
9:32
Just alert when they're in. Just bulbs. [laughs] Yeah. Um- The books are pretty smart. Once the position player's in- Yeah...
9:38
they kinda take everything down, and you gotta get ahead of it early in the game, an inning or two before, that kinda thing. For sure. Uh, all right, NBA game three tonight, NBA finals. This just in.
9:47
Special numbers game investigation reveals. Do you have a play? It would be taking the points if, or nothing. I just don't know with how OKC's played on the road how you get to laying five, five and a half.
9:57
That being said, I, I think this series goes one of two ways tonight. Indy wins, we're looking at a very tension-filled 48 hours where, man, OKC's down 2-1, game four is on the road. It's, uh, it's nervous time for OKC.
10:10
I think if OKC wins, though, I think a lot of people are gonna turn the page mentally with how dominant they were in the first two games, despite the fact that it's only 1-1. So I think OKC wins.
10:19
I can't get to laying the five and a half, five. Uh, this does remind me a little bit, Miami-Denver a couple years ago, where Miami, uh, was just, they, they had so much magic. They proved everybody wrong.
10:28
It was 1-1 after two, and then they never won another game. Uh, this, this Indy team reminds me a little bit of that Miami team.
10:34
I'm just, I'm terrified to bet against the Pacers with what they've done here the past month or so. How can you not be, man? How can you not be? I, I totally get it. Will, always a pleasure.
10:41
Um, Should've Bet More, how o- how many times a week do you, do you put 'em out? Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Monday, Wednesday, Friday. A who's who of phenomenal guests. Thank you, Will.
10:52
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11:59
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to a whole nother level with First Bet.
12:16
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12:26
Bet smarter today at firstbet.com We get tweets, baby, the book. Guess what everybody wants to talk about, Kelly? Fast food. Hoops. That's, that's all I'm Googling right now, too. Hoops by hoots.
12:38
We have a Long John Silver's A&W Root Beer combo in Indiana. [laughs] That's the one I was most fascinated by, the A&W Root Beer, like, restaurants. Like, I used to go, uh, I used to go once in a while.
12:51
My dad always liked to stop at them when we'd go visit his mom in Pennsylvania. I hadn't seen them anywhere else outside of the, outside of Pennsylvania, though.
12:59
Just looked up, they still got 475 locations nationwide, including one in Boulder City. Oh, I did that with Roy Ro- Wanna hit the road after this? I did... Yes, absolutely, I would.
13:08
[laughs] I, I did that with Roy Rogers fast food restaurants on the East Coast, so I grew up on those, and apparently they still exist now, but I don't know if they're the same thing. What?
13:16
Uh, Jason Stark, who egregiously coupled me with you on the Steelers hate yesterday. He said, "Hey guys, we have an A&A- uh, A&W Root Beer KFC combo about a half hour from me," JasonH11.
13:27
"I also have a combo Taco Bell Long John Silver's near my office. Coincidentally, there's a [laughs] portalet company less than a mile away." [laughs] Coidi- coincidence? I think not.
13:36
Ronnie Roach, "I had a Long John Silver's A&W combined restaurant near me while growing up and loved it. No A&W anymore, but I go to Long John Silver's every now and then for that nostalgia. You guys are missing out.
13:47
Gonna get some today now." Um, Sparty, SpartyKY, "Believe it or not, Long John Silver's has a decent grilled salmon with green beans and slaw." [laughs] Oh, man. "And a very good piece of cheesecake."
13:59
[laughs] I do not wanna get that. Sorry. You know what I'd like? I'd like some green beans. [laughs] Oh, man. Uh, this is from, let's see here. Oh, Bobby Gettys, "Couple days late here.
14:11
First of all, welcome back both of you. Matt Brown, Scott Seidenberg did great filling in." By the way, it was terrible form of me.
14:16
I usually, the first thing I do when I come back is thank the host the we- did I do that this week? I don't think I did. No, I wasn't here on Monday, so I don't know. I don't think I did. It's a shame on me.
14:24
Matt Brown, awesome. Scott, Scott Seidenberg on Friday. Uh, anyways, he says, "I have to bring up the French Open again. That men's final match was incredible.
14:31
I'm on a family reunion in Ireland, and we were at the Guinness Factory during the match.
14:34
I asked if any bars had tennis on and was laughed out of the room, so I had to settle for a back hallway with an outlet to watch on my phone. The things we do to watch these games." Good for you.
14:43
It was worth it, though, wasn't it? I mean, if you can't ask about, like, tennis being on in Europe. Like, you're getting laughed out of the room in Europe? In Europe? Come on.
14:51
Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to talk some US Open golf. Oakmont begins in less than 48 hours, or less than 24 hours. Mm-hmm. Forgive me. Mm-hmm. I've lost track of time.
15:00
Sia Nejad joins us to discuss and give all his bets. He's a host and analyst for SportsLine. You can follow him on Twitter at Sia Nejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D.
15:10
Always the best-dressed man in the room, or maybe he's not the best-dressed man, he just looks good in the clothes. He joins us- Oh, he's got his gym shorts on underneath for sure. Yeah, well- He's a TV pro.
15:17
[laughs] Joins us courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. What's happening, Sia? I wanna... I, like, if we could go, like, maybe 20 more minutes on the fast food conversation, just real quick.
15:26
First of all, good pull on Roy Rogers. Wendy's is my favorite fast food joint, unless you include Boston Market, which has historically been incredibly underrated, and I know they're closing in a lot of places.
15:36
Love me some Boston Market, love me some Wendy's. Uh, I'm gonna say I'm an old school Boston Market guy when it was Boston Chicken. That's when it was great. Mm. When they went to Boston Market, mm. Wow, how old are you?
15:47
I've never even seen that. [laughs] I am 174 years old. I've never seen a Boston Chicken. [laughs] No. I, I agree with you on Boston Market being underrated. Oh. I, I haven't seen one of those in years, though, either.
15:57
Yeah, Boston Chicken was the '80s. Wow. Yeah, man. I don't know if you know this, but I remember the '80s. Why'd they go away from that? Did they, they all they served was chicken. Is that right?
16:04
It's not like they really expanded the menu. They wanted to branch out- [laughs]... at one point. Anyways, Sia- If I may- Yes... speaking of, re- real quick, speaking of the '80s, sorry, I, I always derail the show.
16:13
That's okay. We're Clint Didier days away from NFL kickoff. You know what that means? Sports throw that out. That means we're 86 days away. Ah, there you go. [mic thudding] I gotta stop pounding that table. Yeah.
16:24
Sia, let me, before you get into the US Open, can I just ask you, what's the weather report? Because, uh, this is sort of creeping in. What's, what's going on with that? You mean at the US Open at Oakmont?
16:34
Yes, not your current weather. Yeah, I mean- Just at Oakmont... uh, [laughs] like the weather here in DC? Yeah. [laughs] Um, I, I think it's pretty mild over the, over the first two days. I don't think we're gonna get...
16:44
Like, I, I know there's gonna be some rain, uh, I believe on Friday, which could make conditions softer and, and could make scores lower, like better scores, uh, because of that.
16:53
I don't have a, a good read on the weather. I know Thursday's gonna be pretty mild, not much wind in the morning or the afternoon. Uh, my understanding is that we will see some rain Friday.
17:01
I don't know if it's going to suspend play or not, but, uh, yeah, that's, that is going to seem, uh, seep in there on Friday for sure. Yeah, Sat- Saturday, Sunday looking like precipitation.
17:11
Latest I saw, wet early this week a little bit, and they were talking about that as guys have been prepping. Thursday, Friday were mainly supposed to be okay.
17:18
The weekend could get some weather, but it has been changing, I know, the forecast over the past 24 hours, so keep an eye on that. All right. Have at it, Sia. Uh, we'll start with the outrights or however you wanna go.
17:29
Well, last time I was on here, I probably did what I'm about to do, and I'm gonna do the without Scottie Scheffler market, because I don't wanna deal with the guy that I think is going to win.
17:37
I also don't want to bet him at plus 260 or plus 275 or even plus 300. Not that you can get it at that number at many places. I'm gonna go with Jon Rahm.
17:46
I'm gonna go with Jon Rahm in the without Scottie Scheffler market. That's my main play. I got a couple other names to kind of mention here, but Jon Rahm's playing really well.
17:53
Yes, he's playing well on Liv, and you can kind of, like, take that with a bit of a grain of salt, but I do think there's good evidence that he's gaining across all metrics on Liv, and then that, that would probably translate over to the PGA Tour as well.
18:04
But more importantly, w- we saw him almost chase down Scottie Scheffler about a month ago at the PGA Championship.
18:10
I think he's in great form, and wh- when we look at who can possibly win this tournament, yeah, I guess there's some underdogs that could kind of get in there, but th- there's really five or six, maybe eight or nine guys that I think could win this tournament.
18:21
And I, I think Jon Rahm and Bryson are at that to- top of that list once you get past Scottie Scheffler. As far as Bryson is concerned, his number in the without market's, like, plus 700.
18:31
And because I put Rahm and Bryson on the same playing field, at least here, uh, I, especially with respect to how good both of them are off the tee, uh, I'm just gonna go with the better number.
18:40
I'm gonna go with Jon Rahm.
18:41
Other names that are sort of in the more underdog market here, Shane Lowry in the without market I do like on a tough course at 35 to 1 And then in the without Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Rahm market, which of course you can also engage, I'm gonna go Sam Burns, certainly a hot hand at plus 3500.
19:00
So two in the without market, which, with Scottie, and, and one in Sam Burns in the without Scottie, Rory, Bryson, and Rahm market. How universal are the without Scottie markets? Are they in all books?
19:11
Are they in 50% of books? What would you say at this point? At this point, they're in all the major books.
19:18
Now, not all books are doing, well, I mean, I, guess it depends on what you think is a major book, but most of the major books have the without Scottie Scheffler market.
19:26
The without the, like f- like the four, the big four, that's something that a couple of books have been doing all year, uh, but not every book is doing that one.
19:34
And frankly, not a lot of people wanna engage that market anyway. Yeah. Well, that's where we are with Scottie Scheffler. No shocker, Gil, not as many out here in Vegas. Wow. That's, and that's why I ask.
19:43
Caesars and MGM. And that's why I ask, Sia, because we live in our own little, our own little ecosystem- Yeah... here in Nevada. All right. Uh, finishing- Mm-hmm... finishing positions, you have some bl- bets as well.
19:53
Yeah, I'll go back to Sam Burns, uh, at plus 190 to top 20. I mean, I, I love what he's doing off the tee.
19:59
I, I like his game for this course in general, but more importantly, 'cause I, I suppose we can't look at what he did off the tee last week necessarily.
20:06
These are completely different fairways in terms of how narrow they are. But the ball striking in general looks like we're, we're starting to see the old Sam Burns. But what, what has never left Sam Burns is the putter.
20:15
And when you get a tough course like this, and you've got one of the best putters in the field in Sam Burns, I mean, he absolutely crushes it with that stick.
20:22
And I just feel like when we're looking at a really tough course, we need guys who can make clutch putts, and Sam Burns is that guy.
20:29
So at plus 190 for a top 20, because of this number, it's only a half a unit play for me. Um, but I think Sam Burns has top 10 upside, frankly, and it wouldn't shock me if e- if he's in the top five.
20:39
Harris English, top 30. I think he's a popular play. You can get it at plus 115. These are all including ties. Harris English is just so underrated.
20:47
I hit him in the without Scottie Scheffler market when he was 110 to one, uh, what was it, a, a few weeks back. Mm. Of course, that was a three-way split with Bryson and, and, uh, maybe Davis Riley.
20:56
But Harris English, super underrated, particularly underrated off the tee, good in, in, uh, in tough courses, tough conditions, uh, top 30, very reasonable at plus 115.
21:05
All right, and then top South Korean, Si Woo Kim, plus 225. I like how the game is trending for him. He's very accurate off the tee, which I do think is gonna help tremendously.
21:15
The length isn't great, but when you're talking about who he's up against, it's Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, and Ben An. Ben An has some length. He's not really good anywhere else.
21:22
Sungjae Im's been so bad on approach, and Tom Kim's just been so bad for, like, a year. So I think Si Woo Kim's coming in with the best form, has a good profile, c- can certainly putt as well.
21:32
You worry about the blowup stop, but again, this is plus 225. This is one where you could put even less than a half a unit to win a full unit here.
21:39
All right, would not be an official Sia Nejad segment without his first round leader plays, a, a branding that he did not want, but he's too good at it- [laughs]... not to have it. What do you got?
21:49
It's, it's ironic, too, because this year I haven't been as hot with first round leaders, but I've been very hot in the outright market.
21:55
So, you know, do with that what you will, but I got five here, all between 50 and 90 to one.
21:59
We're gonna go with Shane Lowry, a guy that's good on tough courses, and I think is gonna keep it in the fairway and keep it in front of him. Harris English, I just talked about. He's 75 to one.
22:07
Uh, Ryan Fox, ride the hot hand, and he's been more accurate off the tee. I, I think he could be still really good for round one, if not all four rounds, at 80 to one.
22:15
And then two kind of long shots, Ryan Gerard, Adam Scott, at 90 to one. 90 to one.
22:20
Yeah, Ryan Gerard, though, you've seen it as much as I have, Sia, after the first round, how often he's on that first page of that leaderboard.
22:26
I don't know what it's, uh, what, what it's with, uh, him in the first round, but man, he's been incredible there. Sia- Yeah, spike potential is what we're looking for there. Yep. Appreciate it as always, man.
22:35
Thank you so much. Thank you, gentlemen. @sianejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D. Always a pleasure to have Sia on the show. Uh, we'll come back.
22:44
More of those Major League Baseball props to get to 60 wins, to get to 70, to get to 80, to get to 100. That's next on the Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
22:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, in case you haven't heard, VSiN is hitting the road for the College World Series in Omaha. Road tripping. Omaha.
23:09
We'll be live tomorrow through Saturday, broadcasting straight from Rocco's, the iconic home of the Jello Shot Challenge. Uh-oh.
23:15
Catch money moves and follow the money live from Omaha with the sights, sounds, and best bets from the tournament. Head to vsin.com/cws for all the details and a free College World Series betting guide. How about that?
23:28
I, I can as a producer just, just not break down the graphics sometimes. Like, why is that Jeep on the baseball field? Someone get it off the field, Gil. Is that what that is, a Jeep?
23:37
Yeah, it's driving right out on there. Oh, it sure is. Man. I'm looking forward to having Stormy and JBT on with us from Omaha tomorrow.
23:43
It also would be very comical if the entire VSiN crew that's going out there had to load up in one single Jeep. What's the Jello Shot thing? There's a challenge going on?
23:51
Oh, yeah, there's a, there's the, uh, the, uh, the bar that we're gonna be doing the shows from that they do the running count for basically every college, uh, every year of how many Jello Shots people from that college have, have consumed.
24:04
Oh. I don't, I don't think, uh, [laughs] drink is the right word. Consumed is probably the right word with Jello Shots. Oh, look, we, look, I just see this screen right here. Odds to win VSiN's Jello Shot Challenge.
24:14
Derek Stevens is your short shot. Let me just tell you this right now. That is not short enough. [laughs] Via bythebooks.bet. I saw them talking about this this morning. Bythebooks.bet.
24:23
J- JBT's very insulted by, uh, the, by his odds, I think. Jensen Lewis from ByTheBooks next at plus 650, Paulie Howard plus 750, Mitch Moss eight to one, JBT 10 to one, Stormy 12 to one, and what?
24:36
Mike Palm is 250 to one? Yeah. That's way, that's the long shot right there. You gotta, gotta put a flyer on that. Yeah, these were shifting. There was a lot of tweets during the show.
24:45
Uh, I, I believe I tweeted in I would be like Tiger Woods in his prime odds if, uh, if I wasn't benched for this event. Uh, Derek, Derek Dobla belongs at the top. I was also texting with Jensen. There was, uh...
24:56
There's really only a couple times I've really run into, into, into some problems, uh, with keeping up with people, Gil. Once was with my Navy Seal cousin and his, and his buddies in Annapolis, Maryland.
25:08
Oh, boy, and I thought I could keep up with those guys. [laughs] That did not work out well. And, uh, then with some professional baseball players in Port St. Lucie, Florida during spring training.
25:17
You might, you know, maybe you've heard stories about Wade Boggs. Oh boy, these guys can throw some back. Oh, yeah. So yeah, it's, uh- Really? Uh, uh, Jensen, I, I'm not, I'm not going against your price either, buddy.
25:26
Jello shot thing explains why I wasn't invited, I guess. I'd still need a real drink though. I'd be sitting there, uh, just- Here's what I would do. I would, I would slap you on the butt and be, "Go get 'em, Kelly."
25:34
[laughs] That's right. You'd be my hype man. We get, we get tweets. Wet Willie Colon. Things we are waiting for Kelly to do on air. Drop it like it's hot, explosion.
25:42
Dancing with the Country Club intro and the Sam Cassell celebration. You forgot tap dancing. Sometimes when the, uh- [laughs]... when the crew needs us to filibuster, they go, "Tap dance for a while."
25:51
I'm like, "Kelly should get his top hat and his cane." Uh, Vegas Vice. That would be the most difficult one to do still. Uh, oh, this is a question for Ben Wilson.
25:58
Can you ask Ben Wilson why the top two favorites in the College World Series get matched up in the first round?
26:02
Is it because the one to 64 season brackets start with the Super Regionals and stay the same for the whole tournament?
26:08
Ladies and gentlemen, we bring in Ben Wilson, uh, on the show, uh, to talk College World Series with us. You can follow him at Ben_Wilson_1. He makes it as complicated as possible with underscores.
26:21
Uh, but he is here, uh, not only as a, uh, VSAN host, but also as a tremendous play-by-play broadcaster. We enjoy his work doing that. How you doing, Ben? I'm great.
26:30
I would love to volunteer to do the play-by-play for the Jello Shot undertaking if, if Kelly were to be there, because I think that would, uh- Yeah... that would, that would be a highlight of my career undoubtedly.
26:40
[laughs] It would be. I used to ask Brent all the time. I go, "Brent, where does the, uh, where does the Manscape ads land in your tier of great play-by-play?" Um, all right, Ben. It'd be up there.
26:50
What, what, what about the question here? Is that correct, what, uh, what, uh, Vegas Vice was assuming here? The reason that LSU and Arkansas, for those who missed it, we talked about this yesterday.
26:58
There are six different conferences here. Uh, there's an independent as well.
27:02
The only conference that has two teams in, LSU and Arkansas, they're the only short shots going into the regionals that were kind of, you know, favorites in all of this, and they play each other.
27:12
So if one of them is to win the College World Series, they would essentially have to do it from a loser bracket.
27:19
E- exactly right, and it's why you somet- I mean, the way the, the Super Regionals also play out, there's no reseeding.
27:25
So it's why you ended up with Murray State, a four seed against Duke, who was a two seed in their own regional going to Duke. This stuff is all sort of predetermined beforehand.
27:34
And, you know, it's why it, for, for Arkansas here, I mean, they're the favorite. And I've, of, of all these, I've seen three of the eight teams in Omaha in person this year.
27:42
Arkansas far and away has been the most impressive in person to watch.
27:45
But think about in Supers, Arkans- it had to eliminate Tennessee, who at the time was the third short shot on the odds board, and they, they did that in pretty dominant fashion, won both games.
27:55
And now they'll basically have to eliminate LSU, who's the second favorite. You could probably argue Tennessee and LSU, two of the top five teams in the country, and that wouldn't even guarantee Arkansas the title.
28:05
That's how crazy difficult this path is. So it's one of those things where I don't know that I'd, you know, plus 195, not worth jumping in on at this point.
28:12
My strategy, especially for these teams that are a little shorter, uh, you gotta just play 'em game by game if you like them and wanna exploit certain match-ups. Because as we've seen in years past,
28:22
trying to monetize that any sort of future gets really tricky in this double elimination format. You know, I, I had, I found this out the hard way at TCU a few years ago. I think you remember that, Gil. Yes.
28:31
And I'm thinking, "Oh, I got a 40 to 1 ticket, you know, to win a few grand. Let me start monetizing and start hedging." They get into the losers bracket.
28:37
Well, TCU wins like three straight losers bracket [laughs] games, and I'm going, "Uh-oh, uh, this is starting to, uh, to get a little hairy."
28:43
So that's the one word of advice I would give is at this point, unless you've got a super great number long shot from earlier in the year or at the start of the post-season, I'd kind of let those things just ride out because it's really hard to know when to jump in, how to treat the double elimination format here.
28:59
Uh, but I do still feel like at this point Arkansas is your rightful favorite despite the very tough draw. Yeah.
29:04
What Ben is referring to, by the way, the way that the, uh, the way that the sort of fakakta bracket, uh, goes moving forward, you can withstand two more losses to win the title.
29:14
So you could lose prior to the best of three championship one time, and then you could theoretically lose, obviously, in a best of three one of those games as well. But until then, you can only lose once, right?
29:26
So that's the thing with this. Uh, if I said to you though, Ben, I'm like, "All right, Ben, I get it. Arkansas is definitely the rightful fa- rightful short shot here, as you say."
29:34
But if I said, "Okay, you must take a flyer on one of the long shots," which team would that be? Just for giggles. Yeah, it, it, yeah.
29:41
It's gotta be from bracket one, which is cer- certainly the weaker of the two, and it's... How they've got it, Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Arizona, Louisville, um, in that order are your four teams.
29:51
And it's gotta be Louisville for me. I mean, that's kind of been, uh, the, the team for me as a team who had zero expectations from the start of the year.
29:59
They were six to one to win the Vanderbilt region, who was the number one overall seed, um, in that region. And they've continued every, every single step of the way to...
30:08
And not only that, I mean, they've, they've had great, uh, depth of pitching, and I'm gonna bet them in game one. They're an underdog to Oregon State, who, uh, I, I thought of... It's funny.
30:16
In that bracket one, guys, you only had one single favorite from their regional, and I'm not talking super regional. This is just from the regionals purely.
30:25
Org- uh, Oregon State is the only favorite from their regional who's made it into this bracket one. And I'd argue they probably got the luckiest of any team.
30:32
They, they got a gift from, unfortunately, a sad choke job from Kelly's alma mater- Whoa... up in Corvallis. That should've been a seminal, uh, role.
30:39
But, uh, look, I thought Florida State was, was clearly, looked like the better team for, you know, like 25 of the 27 outs in a couple of those games. Um, didn't work out.
30:48
So I'll continue to roll with Louisville if, if you're taking a flyer here. Um- There's definitely a team from bracket one that might be a surprise. Coastal Carolina probably should be the favorite.
30:56
Um, I'd like to play them in an under with Arizona when tho- those totals come out for game one, uh, because Coastal has the best pitching here, uh, depth-wise of teams remaining.
31:05
But it's gotta be Louisville, and you can get them plus 135 right now, game one over Oregon State.
31:10
Likely gonna see, uh, Patrick Forbes, who, uh, when I saw him in person opening day against Texas, it was 98 with the fastball, [laughs] 80- like 89 change-up and an 83 slider.
31:20
It was, it was pretty nasty stuff for a college kid. Wow. I'm pretty sure Ben Wilson just called you a choker, by the way. Mm. Yeah. Call that anyone at 1TFSN. I heard. It wasn't directed directly at Kelly.
31:28
Yeah, I get it. That's what I heard. That's what I heard. Um- You think, uh, Arkansas, LSU, do we, do we just get the SEC chance out of the way early? Like, they just go back and forth? [laughs] Uh- SEC. Yeah.
31:39
Uh, so wait, wait, I wanna go to the first games then. Okay. So y- you mentioned, so let's go through those again. You just said plus 135 you would play on who again? Uh, that would be Louisville for me. Okay.
31:49
So plus, uh, plus 135 over Oregon State, and we showed those, those futures odds. I would love to see a market for just to make the College World Series final.
31:58
Uh, but, and if you, you know, theoretically chop that in half, you'd get Louisville at around plus 850. Uh, that would, it probably wouldn't be that because the bracket two is viewed to be stronger.
32:07
But I do like Louisville to, uh, to come out of that. I think it's Louisville, Coastal Carolina who end up your final two, um, in bracket, in bracket one there.
32:14
And then, yeah, the, the lines are not out yet for totals, but I mean, Coastal Carolina, they've got, you know, Jacob Morrison, Riley Eikhoff. Whoever they go with is their two top starting pitchers.
32:23
They've both been amazing throughout the entire post-season, each with sub three ERAs.
32:27
Uh, and Arizona's bullpen has, has shown a tremendous amount of growth from last year, when that was kind of a consistent weakness for the Wildcats and, um, and Chip Hale, their head coach.
32:36
So I, I like that game to go under. We generally see this park play. It's a big park, definitely plays more to pitching and defense compared to the, the band boxes of regionals and super regionals.
32:46
So I generally look for some unders, especially early in the College World Series.
32:50
Everybody's been hyped up about all these overs that hit earlier on in the tournament, but it is a different ballgame once we go to Omaha and Rocco's. All right.
32:57
So one play and one looking for a total play in bracket one, uh, in the Louisville, Oregon State games and Arizona, Coastal Carolina games respectively. Uh, nothing in the, uh, in bracket two for now from Ben.
33:10
When is your next play-by-play gig before you leave, Ben? When, when can we look for you?
33:14
Well, well, I will be, uh, I will hopefully be seeing Kelly Bidlin and possibly you, Gil, uh, this weekend because I will be at the wonderful Lee's Family Forum, Henderson, Nevada. Oh, yeah.
33:22
Saturday night for the Vegas Nighthawks- Wow... and the Bay Area Panthers. Matchup of top three teams in the Indoor Football League's Western Conference. A lot on the line, guys. Omaha.
33:33
We're at, we're at the Dollar Loan Center Arena, baby. Is that what they call it still? Whatever, whatever they changed the name to. Whatever they changed the name to. Yeah, yeah.
33:38
Uh, there was an, uh, a small rights, uh, name change, but it's all, it's all good, yeah. Ben, always a pleasure. Thank you, man. Appreciate it. Great to see you guys. Ben Wilson, everybody.
33:46
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34:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:59
Back on our numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, majestic downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, where at 7:00 AM it's a cool 95 degrees already. Oh, it's brutal.
35:10
We get to this time of year, I don't know about you, but like my, my air conditioner just, it could be brand new, it doesn't matter out here, just you can, you can almost feel it struggling.
35:19
It's just like- Someone wanted to play tennis with me where he's like, "What time?" I'm like, "7:00 AM." He's like, "Bet, let's do it." 7:00 AM, that's what we have to do on the weekend.
35:27
Uh, we got tweets of Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. There is so many, uh, Long John Silver's, Taco Bell, KFC combo tweets. I'm gonna try to bounce around those because we'll be here all day.
35:38
Uh, Charles in Connecticut, I love them all though. I'll respond to all of them. Charles in Connecticut, Hoop Homer, he says, "Will the Jello shot challenge be shown with my VSiN plus plus plus subscription?
35:46
Sorry I'm sending so many messages. Show is just too damn good today." Oh, well, thank you, Charles, very much. Appreciate that. Jack Olaquair, "Gil, thanks for a reason to actually watch my White Sox this season.
35:56
Following you with a bet on them to get to 60 wins. Gulp." Yeah. Here's... Let me, let me just be clear about this. That's at DraftKings.
36:03
We can't bet this unless I mule it out, and I reserve the muling for other bets, not that one. Let me just be clear.
36:09
I do not have a bet on it, but those are the three that I mentioned, White Sox, Rangers, and Reds, that I would consider. The rest of them are absolute no bets, uh, for me on those.
36:19
This is from, do-do-do, this is from a Real Uniform Czar who says, "Bring back the Brent Musburger Manscaped commercials." SuperJerk, your boy, SuperJerk. He says- Yeah, where he bet...
36:29
he says, "Chicago White Sox have been scrappy. Made me money thus far. I would be careful with this team, uh, with that bet. Might look to move a pitcher or two at the deadline."
36:37
You always gotta be careful with the White Sox, for sure. That tweet sound very angry. That, that tweet wasn't angry. No, he wasn't angry. Yeah. He's usually angry. For- Yeah...
36:42
SuperJerk, formerly angriest man in New Jersey, then angriest man in Kentucky. Now he's just SuperJerk. Uh, Larry Brewer, "Big shot Rob, big shot Bob, Robert Horry had some pretty decent playoff c- clutch runs as well."
36:53
Mm-hmm. Yes, he did. Um, and then the rest of them are all Long John Silver's, uh- Just got a wee Chick-fil-A's in there as well Well, well someone at- Yeah...
37:01
Long John Silver's social media department's like, "What's going on today?" [laughs] What's going on? It's a great day in our- [laughs]... company history. Let's recap some of the best bets.
37:07
Not some of them, all of the best bets that we had on the show today. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport recapped at the end of each and every show, courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
37:18
Um, I'm, uh, on the side I'm, uh, I'm workshopping some grass tennis. Workshopping some grass tennis. Not ready to put out plays yet, but they would've gone two and one today, so we're trending towards official plays.
37:32
Where all, where are we this week? London and Stuttgart? Oh my God, we're in so many places. Do you prefer Stuttgart's clay or Stuttgart's grass? I prefer Stuttgart clay. [laughs] Thank you for asking.
37:42
Uh, Kelly, very note- very, uh, aware at all times, noticing that in Stuttgart they have a clay tournament about a month ago, and now a grass tournament. And you said, "What?"
37:53
I, is, I mean, there's no other city, right, that has two events of that level with- I don't-... two different surfaces? At least the 250 in each pl- uh, probably not.
38:03
Um, to answer your question, the ATP tour is in Stuttgart and in, uh, how do you pronounce it? Hertogenbosch? If you- Ooh, I gotta look that one up. [laughs] I, I know, I'm, I'm totally mispronouncing that.
38:15
Uh, A-T, yeah. It's, it's in the Ne- Herten. It's in the Netherlands, by the way. Hertogenbosch. It's in Holland. Hmm. Where the, where the Dutch are. And what do you, what do you think about them, Gil?
38:24
Well, there's two things in this world I can't stand. [laughs] So great. [laughs] It's such a great line from, uh, Austin Powers. Oh. Uh, and then the WTA tour is in London. They're also in Hertogenbosch.
38:36
I'm not pronouncing that right. And then they have three 125s, which I don't pay attention to. But the London, the ladies London grass tournament is the only 500 that's going on right now, so you'll recognize the names.
38:46
Anyway, Totten are 16 to one, most wins in June. They're in fourth place right now as they take on the Orioles again today. And then Leon Draisaitl nine to win to win Conn Smythe, if you can get him at a better number.
38:57
Right now with the Oilers down two games to one, game four back at Sunrise tomorrow night. How many times you living in South Florida did you ever go to Sunrise? Uh, s- oh man, all the time to play poker. [laughs] Okay.
39:11
Uh, to, to watch hockey games? About probably five times. All right. What you got tonight in the b- in the ballgame? Halbert over two and a half 3-pointers made. You're getting that, uh, I, I got a minus 102.
39:20
You'll find it pretty cheap, uh, out there. I, I, look, I'm expecting more volume overall from this team from three, uh, going forward. I think that starts tonight in game three.
39:30
If Halbert is also, uh, limited at all with this leg, I, I, you know, maybe he has to settle a little bit more for some pull-up jumpers. So like the over threes on him tonight. All right.
39:40
Um, Kelly gets to some country clubbing here momentarily with golf. Ben Wilson came in. He's got Louisville over Oregon State. Louisville plus 135, that's the first round, if you will.
39:51
I don't, we don't really call it the first round, but it's the first game being played. That's in bracket one of the College World Series in Omaha. So, uh, Ben's on Louisville plus 135.
40:00
He's also waiting to see when the totals are posted for, uh, for other bets as well. And then, uh, was that it for us? No, we got Will with a few baseball. Will, Will Hill.
40:07
My God, this feels like it was five hours ago, Will Hill. He's got the Braves today at minus 138.
40:12
He's got the Phillies today at minus 115, and a Willie special, as Wishnev calls it, Marlins plus the half run first five for William Hilliam, or Wilson Hillson as we like to call him.
40:24
Uh, and then JBT, Pascal Siakam plus 150 to lead the series in rebounds. Pascal Siakam heading into game number three tonight at Indiana.
40:34
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41:12
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41:23
Only one thing left to do on the show. You know who didn't get to talk about the US Open? My friend Kelly Bidlin, country clubbing. No? No? No country clubbing? Okay. There he is. [upbeat music] Yeah, there we go.
41:36
There he is. Ben Wilson's family. [laughs] Wait, he said, he said Matt Brown called [laughs] Matt, I think Matt, Matt Brown called that Ben Wilson's family? [laughs] Yep. So great. All right, sir.
41:50
All right, let's fly through the card quick here. Let's do it. Outrights for me, I am on Ludvig Aberg, 27 to one, added 30 to one yesterday, that is out there as well. Sepp Straka 50 to one and Keegan Bradley 100 to one.
42:02
That is all I'll be going into this tournament with outright bets on. I do love, uh, the top of the board. Scheffler, Bryson, Jon Rahm is who I'm looking to target live.
42:12
We'll hopefully get in on one of those, but hey, if we don't, we don't. You have to be okay with that.
42:17
Um, also just kind of covering, uh, some of my outrights, Ludvig with a top five and Keegan Bradley with a top 10 is how I chose to play that. And then two, uh, bigger top 10 bets on DeChambeau and on Jon Rahm.
42:30
I do think this is gonna be another very top-heavy, uh, major that we're gonna get this year like we did at the PGA and the Masters. Top 20s, really like Xander Schauffele in the top 20 market.
42:40
Uh, game's slowly getting there. I don't know if I believe in him as, as an outright, uh, this week. I know some others have bet that. I believe Wes is on him for, for him in outright.
42:50
I don't know if his game is fully back yet, uh, Gil, but this is a guy that's played really well in US Opens and majors here over the past several years.
42:57
Uh, and the game's back to a point where the club head speed's high. What he's doing off the tee this year, uh, is another level from where he's been at before.
43:05
If he's gotta play out of this thick rough, I think he's gonna be okay. Like him for a top 20 play. Uh, and then top 20s on Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry.
43:14
Shane Lowry's a kind of a tough one to figure out right now for me, but he, his approach numbers Are, spectacular what he's done the past few weeks.
43:22
Uh, had trouble closing it out, really ugly Sunday for him, uh, this past week in Canada.
43:26
Uh, but he's one of these guys that I think if you're looking, if you're looking at this tournament, you gotta choose distance off the tee or put a premium on accuracy, and that's what you're getting with Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka.
43:37
They are not long, but they are extremely accurate and will find the fairway, uh, quite often. And then first round, shout out to Byron Lindekug.
43:44
I thought he did a great job of breaking this down, how he was betting Scheffler this week, and really thought, i- w- went back and kind of tracked where Scheffler had finished at in first rounds in these majors, and getting just a better pl- price to play on Scheffler a- after a first round top 10 at plus money, +115, than comparing to what he is as a top 10 or a, even a top five bet for the entire tournament.
44:06
So thought that was a really sharp way to play that, uh, in the first round.
44:09
And with condensed scores, um, or, or not, you know, guys not going very low in this first round, I'm going back to some of these MGM first round markets where I'm gonna play d- v- some top 10s, top fives possibly.
44:21
How, well, same question that I asked, uh, Sia earlier about the without Scheffler markets. Yeah. How rampant are the top 10 first round markets? Yeah, great que- [laughs] great question.
44:30
I only mentioned one book for a reason. For us- I know... it's only at MGM. Only at MGM. I, I don't even know na- nationwide, I don't think there's a ton that offer it outside- Right... of MGM.
44:39
They'll go first round leader, top five after first round, and top 10 after first round. Um, last question on this. As we head into the US Open tomorrow, what is the winning score projected?
44:51
'Cause we obviously, we can bet this too. The prop is, like, -1.5, so one and a half under par. And is the- Well- Well, I guess, I guess a lot of this is rain dependent, right? It really is.
45:01
When will the rain- It really is... when will the rain show up? It's an impossible question to answer. Yeah.
45:05
It's v- w- we all know US Opens play tough, and if there looks like there's gonna be weather this weekend, if that comes in, this could be, I mean, it could be brutal over there.
45:14
I'm gonna do my thing where I jump in after a round or two. Yeah. Doing that. Long Shot's up now. Go check that out. Me and Wes Reynolds did that yesterday. Um- It's called, it's called Long Shots. Oh, Long Shots.
45:23
We're all, we, we- And remember, get a podcast of the show as well, a numbers game. A numbers game. In case you miss us, wanna watch us on delay, after the fact, the Numbers Game podcast. Check it out.
45:33
Money Moves with Story and JVT next at VSiN. Enjoy the Sports Betting Network.
A Numbers Game
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