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Jun 12, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 12, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 12, 2024
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Gay Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take it us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada here at the D, lovely downtown Las Vegas. What are we expecting, 107, 108 today, degrees Fahrenheit? Oh, it's too hot. It's too hot.
0:28
I've been beaten down by it a couple of these days. Yeah. Well, that's part of the... I don't know if you know this, but you're in a desert.
0:33
Where you just have to, where you have to retreat indoors and, and just crank down the AC. Totally. Re- The- Well said, retreat indoors. Retreat. Yes.
0:40
[laughs] And then I don't know about you, but you, you and I are in and out of, like, the casinos so much that, that my, my mother, former nurse, always tells me this is just an old wives' tale, but I, like- Oh, I know what's coming...
0:50
it's this, like, the runny nose sniffles because we go in from- Air condition... like 63 degrees- Yeah... to 110 degrees. Yep. It's like flying from Vegas to San Francisco in July. It's, like, a 50-degree drop.
1:02
Uh, we are loaded today. Jonathan Vottero, our senior NBA analyst, uh, talking NBA finals with us as the NBA finals does us all a favor and resumes tonight with game three at Dallas, the American Airlines Arena.
1:13
JVt will join us momentarily. Ciena Jad on the US Open, Matt Grissom on the College World Series.
1:19
Wilson Hilson will join us with all his bets, as will Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke, so everybody coming up on the show today.
1:25
Uh, we wanna start with, uh, as PTI usually says, a melancholy goodbye to Jerry West.
1:30
Jerry West, this just, uh, couple weeks after the passing of another NBA great, Bill Walton, uh, which caught everybody by surprise 'cause no one really knew Bill was sick.
1:39
Well, Jerry West passing away at the age of 86 years old. Um, what can you say about Jerry West other than starting with he's the NBA logo?
1:50
It's his silhouette that is the logo of the entire National Basketball Association. Um, if you go back way in his childhood, uh, grew up in a West Virginia coal mining town.
2:00
Kelly, his older brother, died in the Korean War. He struggled with depression throughout his life, um, but was a, just a, a basketball great.
2:08
Three-time All-American at West Virginia, 14 seasons in the NBA, All-Star in every one of them. Incredible. Um, along with Wilt and Oscar, were the first people to get to 25,000 points.
2:18
He's still to this day one of only five NBA players in history to average 25, five, and five throughout a career. 25 points- Wow... five boards, and five assists.
2:29
Um, and a p- and I think probably even better, as great as his NBA career was, one of the 50 greats of all time, one of the 75 greats, um, one of the, you know, he's a better executive, and there's so many stories.
2:43
There's the, there's the famous Kobe story where he shut down the workout when he was a, when he was working for the Lakers. He's like, "We don't need to see it. We don't want anybody else to see any more of this kid."
2:51
Yep, yep. They traded for him famously on draft day, but he also, fr- from the Warriors' standpoint, he was a consultant to the Warriors. He was the one who nixed a Klay Thompson trade so many years ago.
3:01
Remember there was a proposed Klay Thompson for Kevin Love trade. I wanna say this was back in 2014 even, and Jerry West was like, "Nope, you don't wanna do that." Um, so many things that he touched.
3:11
He was also, uh, with the Clippers when they acquired Kawhi and Paul George. Mm-hmm. Um, so, so many. Just a, just a basketball life that was just phenomenal, and sadly, can I just say this as a postscript?
3:24
I, I'm sad that I even have to add this, but to a cer- to a younger generation, their only exposure to him might've been from that HBO Max- Yeah... Winning Time series where he was portrayed awfully. Yeah.
3:37
And remember, we came on air, and, and I was, and I, maybe Parles was my producer at the time, but I, I would always say on the like, "You know, the only thing I don't understand about this, why are they murdering Jerry West like this?"
3:46
Oh, no, we were, no, it wa- I was with you 'cause we- Yeah... you and I kept talking about, we loved the ser- we loved the series so much. Loved it, yeah. I don't know about you.
3:53
We, I don't think we've talked about this in a long time. I still haven't fired up season two 'cause I was so depressed when- I, same thing... when I heard they canceled it. I'm like, "I'm not gonna watch season two."
4:00
Same thing. Me too. Um, but you're right. It was, I mean, that, that was a, that was a great series, and yes, that was the on- [laughs] that was one of the w- awkward o- f- uh, you know, few awkward pa- parts about it.
4:10
You're like, "Why, why do they l- make him look so bad?" Yeah. Um,
4:15
most famous shot for those who remember this way back when, also we'll leave it at this, but, uh, in the 1970 NBA finals against the Knicks, he hit a 60-footer to force overtime in game three too.
4:27
That was his most iconic moment on the court, but aside- He's the logo, man He's the logo. He's the logo. That's right. End of the day, he's the logo. It's not MJ. It's not anybody else. It's Jerry West.
4:36
Yeah, Jerry West, may he rest in peace, uh, passing away at the age of 86.
4:39
Uh, no, uh, artful way to segue to today's NBA and to our betting thoughts, but let me just start with, uh, another tried-and-true theme here on the show, which is boy, oh boy, when Nevada gets sports betting, what a state this is gonna be to live in when they legalize it here.
4:55
Uh, Kelly, yesterday I wanted to make a donation and bet the NBA finals MVP. I wanted to bet Jrue Holiday at plus 750, um, it, which, you know, like, like plus 750 bets are, are likely to lose, correct? Correct. Um,
5:12
I searched around town. Uh, nobody had it. That's weird. Nobody had it. Not a single shop that I found had NBA finals MVP up. Now, of course DraftKings is not here. Um- I'm checking DraftKings again...
5:24
so you can b- you can do it so in your jurisdiction with DraftKings and other books, but you can't do it in the state of Nevada apparently 'cause nobody... Now, you can, by the way.
5:31
It's not, it's not like a Nevada gaming thing. You're allowed to do it. I even, I, I- Yeah, they had it before... imagine they had it before. Yeah. I mean, I bet it before.
5:39
They don't have it up this morning either, so anyway. Yeah, you're right. I don't see, I don't see it. I want to give you my money. You will not take my money. It, it is. It, I mean, you and I were texting about it.
5:47
It is. Yeah. Just something. Just something how many, like- It is. [laughs] Like how many, just some- That is a great description, Kelly... how many times a month? It is something.
5:54
How many times a month I walk around this city being like, "Will you take my money? Who will take my money here? Nobody, no, you don't wanna take my money." Okay. Are we booking or are we not booking?
6:02
Um- Kelly r- uh, Kelly provides a rundown, by the way. Kelly has, uh, so many roles as producer number nine on this show. Uh, show bouncer being perhaps his most important one.
6:12
But also, he, he provides me with a rundown before every show. Now, Kelly, you, you provide notes. I probably, I don't know, what, I don't really consult them 19 of 20 times, would you say?
6:22
But every once in a while you'll put something in here. Yeah, but I like you to have them. No, I love that you- I like you to have them... I love that you put these. Every once in a while you'll put a nugget in there.
6:28
I'll be like, "Oh, Ben Wilson, all around great guy." [laughs] See what you wrote there. Um, and- What did I write today?
6:33
Well, you had a, you had a Joey, you have a Joey Chestnut note, which I, I'm sort of giggling in my head, but I'll- Major news, Gil. Come on, man... I have to, we'll get to that momentarily.
6:41
But the other one is Kristaps Porziņģis, of course- Yeah... uh, who suffered what he, uh, what the team called a rare injury, that's a quote, to his left leg.
6:49
It is listed as questionable for tonight's game, uh, game three of the NBA Finals. Let me just tell you what that, that leg injury is in terms of the medical, uh, terminology.
6:58
A dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg. Yeah. Um, that's not common. So the Celtics said yesterday that he, well you, you even had it as different. Torn medial
7:13
r- r- I don't even know how to say this word. [laughs] Yeah, me either. Uh, re- Retinaculum... re- retinaculum? Right. Sure, yeah Allowing a dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg.
7:22
So he, they said his status- Yeah, but a Twitter doctor we- weigh in here...
7:26
Twitter doctor, uh, Brian Sutterer, no relation to Roger Federer, he says the medial retinaculum, I don't know that I'm not saying that right, is like a seatbelt that keeps the tendons in place as they course around the inside of the ankle bone.
7:40
There are three tendons that travel along the inside of the ankle, and that seatbelt keeps them secured in place. The posterior tibialis tendon is one of said tendons.
7:51
Uh, Shams adds, uh- That was his original tweet, yeah... that was Shams' original, uh, original tweet on this. We do, do have, uh, we want to hear, uh, Mazzulla talking about it yesterday.
7:58
I thought he had interesting comments yesterday. Well, the point I was gonna make is everybody's saying, so they're saying he's day-to-day. Right. How, how in the world is he day-to-day?
8:06
There's no way he's playing tonight, right? I, I wouldn't think so, but le- let's listen to Mazzulla. Here's what Joe Mazzulla had to say, head coach of the Boston Celtics.
8:14
Yeah, I mean, he's, listen, he's, uh, he's doing anything and everything he can, uh, to be ready for the game tomorrow. Um, it's a, it's a much, it's a serious injury.
8:23
Um, and at the end of the day, our team and, and the medical team is not gonna put him, uh, in any bad situations. And so, uh, we've taken a decision to play out of his hands because, uh, the importance of him.
8:36
And so he's gonna do everything he can to play, and then we're gonna leave it up to our medical team. Um, and that's, that's really it. And that's the important part.
8:43
Serious injury, we're taking the decision out of his hands. Yep. So up two to nothing. I, I can't imagine they play him tonight. And by the way, my spider senses tell me he ain't playing at all. Yeah.
8:55
Like I just, I just feel like you don't risk that. So this is where it's, it's, we always got to, it's hard for me to remove myself from my Mavericks ticket, right? Right. R- r- right?
9:04
But as a Mavericks bettor, like this is a, even him, like him not going, Gil, hasn't made that much of a difference in two games. Like I don't know that I'm gonna expect it would in the third.
9:18
So if you're the Boston side, I, I mean, I would at least be resting him tonight. I mean, obviously this- Well, he, he mattered in game one. Oh, he was big. He was big. Yeah.
9:26
For, uh, but even, I mean, what has he played, 41 minutes I believe- Yeah... over the course of two games?
9:30
It, the big difference is where you get the, big difference is, okay, you can run him and Horford, and you don't have to fall back then to the other option that's gonna be the next guy coming off the bench, where finally Boston becomes maybe a little weak where you can attack them.
9:47
Um, but I, man, I, the way they've handled this, this Dallas offense so far, Horford's been great. Like I, I don't know that they're, I don't know that right now I'm all that concerned about a huge drop-off for Boston.
9:58
Therefore, if I'm Boston, there's no way I'm e- I'm playing him tonight. Mavericks now a two and a half point favorite, game three tonight. Total at 213. We haven't talked about the total. You, you leaning?
10:09
Both of these have gone under so far. Yeah, I, I leaned, uh, I, well, leaned, I, I bet over in game one, lean- leaned over in both of them.
10:15
Um, I just don't, I don't know how you can look that way until you finally see something out of this Dallas offense that looks like they are operating with some sort of efficiency, 'cause they have not shown that at all in the first two games.
10:28
So as a guy with a Mavericks ticket, what you're telling me is this does not qualify as a glimmer of hope to you. Like Po- the Porziņģis- I gotta see something. No...
10:34
Porziņģis perhaps being out here does not give you some light in the door.
10:40
I gotta see, I, I don't want to say completely not, because of c- of course it does a little bit, but like they gotta, they gotta, the Dallas Mavericks gotta show they can e- beat this team even without Porziņģis.
10:50
I don't know they've really proven that they can win those minutes so far. They haven't. They haven't won those minutes. Say you didn't have your ticket. Would you take Boston in five at plus 205? Probably.
10:59
Gentleman's sweep? Yeah. Dallas takes one of these two- Probably... tonight or, or Friday night, and then they come back and they win it Monday night in Boston. Do think that is the most likely outcome.
11:07
The one bet I did make tonight was, um, I've bet this, I don't think every game, but the past two games, P.J. Washington over his points, over 14 and a half.
11:16
He's been, he, he's been the one, not like, this isn't something that's gonna win you games. That's why it doesn't matter that much.
11:22
But often the way that Boston's been defending, they end up having a smaller defender on P.J.
11:27
Washington, and him, uh, being able to attack the rim along with being there for those threes, I, I think gives him a lot of scoring opportunities. Like him over 14 and a half.
11:36
JBT's thoughts on the NBA Finals on the other side, and a whole bunch of US Open, which begins tomorrow at Pinehurst in Pinehurst, North Carolina. Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:46
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. US Open, golf's third major tomorrow.
12:03
Getting in-depth betting preview of the US Open with VSiN's golf betting experts on the Long Shots podcast. It's called Long Shots.
12:09
Wes Reynolds, Matt Brown, and Kelly Vidlan, I'm not sure who that is, break down every aspect of this year's toughest major, including their best bets.
12:16
You can watch Long Shots today right after this show, noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific, right here on VSiN.
12:23
That's right I thought about you yesterday, 'cause when John Rom pulled out, I was like, "Didn't Kelly just record long shots and he was gonna fade Rom?" [laughs] Like did you- Nice How much did you devote to that?
12:32
I sound like such a jackass on there. [laughs] Being like, "This is such a great fade opportunity, Bo." Oh, man. I found Tommy Fleetwood. Oh, God, I found Fleetwood in town, uh, at Boyd, minus 104 in a match up over Rom.
12:44
I, I hammered it. And it was like, I was like, "This is, oh, this is gonna be a high stakes weekend. Oh, boy, like this is gonna be fun." And then Rom wins, you know? I wanna, I wanna bring JBT in for this.
12:53
Uh, Jonathan Vontobel, Jonathan Vontobel, our NBA senior analyst and of course, uh, co-host of, uh, VSAN Prime Time, which he does with Tim Murray here, weekdays at the network. Uh, Joey Chestnut has been banned.
13:05
Now, this is one of these, this is one of these things that I saw come up on the phone yesterday, but didn't care enough to pursue. [laughs] But I was like, "Oh, Joey Chestnut got banned."
13:13
Uh, banned from July 4th, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest because he signed an endorsement deal, uh, with a plant-based hot dog company, um, Impossible Foods, JBT tells me off air.
13:23
Chestnut has won every year since 2015, and my only thought reading this was, has anyone checked on Mitch and Paulie? Like I- are they okay? Yeah.
13:31
Or g- is this the epis- is this the part of the behind the music of follow the money where they spiral into drugs, depression- [laughs]... and alcohol? What? Why? [laughs] Do you remember Behind the...
13:39
Oh, you're too young for Behind the Music. No, I remember that, yeah. [laughs] VH1's Behind the Music, which at the time in the late '90s was, like, the greatest documentaries you could ever see.
13:47
It was before 30 for 30s. They had, like, a template where, like, a band would rise from oblivion, or an artist. Right.
13:53
Then, because of some internal strife, egos, someone dies, drugs, depression, alcohol, whatever, they would just go to rock bottom, and then they would rise from the ashes. That was the template for all of them.
14:03
It's like, "When Behind the Music returns, Lynyrd Skynyrd spirals into drugs, depression, and alcohol." It's like every one of those was like... So I'm, like, worried about Mitch and Paul. Someone should check on this.
14:12
John, is this, is this a big thing on your radar? Oh, I, I mean, I think so. Look, j- just Fourth of July, there's not much going on.
14:18
This is a big betting event, and I, I actually think it makes it more interesting, right? Now it's way more bettable, right? Because now there's different options. Yeah. Right.
14:24
Like, there was only one betting option for you in this competition. It was over under hot dogs for Joey Chestnut.
14:29
Now we're looking at different match-ups, we're looking at the futures board, we're seeing who's gonna win this thing. Like, there's so many different angles now that you could take that he's been banned.
14:36
Look, Nathan's, let, let's, let's not make any offense or butts about this. Nathan's are cowards, right? They, they- [laughs]... just let the man eat. He's one of our greatest athletes- [laughs]... that we've ever seen.
14:45
Oh, boy. And you're just eliminating him from this because of an endorsement deal. It's ridiculous. Uh, but it does make it more interesting from a betting perspective.
14:52
I'm gonna say handle's gonna be up for the Fourth of, Fourth of July hot dog eating contest. Well, this is the same thing with, uh- Oh, I agree with you on that... well, what was it? Kobayashi, right?
14:58
W- didn't he sign- Yep... with, like, another, another, like, uh, major league eating, like, league or something? And they were like, "No, you gotta be only a part of our league. You can't compete anymore."
15:09
That's how those politics go. What this really is, this is, this is major league eating turning into boxing, right?
15:13
Boxing has held back some of its greatest fights because of bureaucratic red tape and nonsense of all of these promoters protecting their biggest fighters. It's a little bit different.
15:21
Now the bureaucracy is getting in the way of having two great athletes go at it.
15:25
So what I have proposed, Gil, I proposed this yesterday, is we're having these stupid golf matches all the time, which I think have jumped the shark. Nobody really cares about them anymore.
15:33
Give me a match between Joey Chestnut and Kobayashi. They are free agents. Let them go at it. Let's pick a food. I will pay for it. I'll get some, I'll get Netflix.
15:41
Whatever it is, let's get another one in here now that these two aren't gonna be on the Fourth of July. Now that Chestnut's out, all, no holds barred. Let's get this thing done. It's a great call.
15:48
Boy, boy did I ask the right person. Let me- People would watch that more than they'll watch July 4th... before we move on from this, did I, did I hear correctly? Did you just call him our greatest living athlete?
15:55
Is that what you just said about Joey Chestnut? I said o- I said one of. You c- you could argue Michael Jordan. Okay.
15:59
You can Mi- you can, you could argue with some of these others, but I think he's one of our greatest living athletes, absolutely. He's up there. He's up there. Oh, my goodness. Um, okay.
16:07
Let's [laughs] let's talk, let's talk NBA finals. I remember when ESPN did that 100 greatest living athletes and, uh, Kornheiser picked Secretariat number one, and he took, like, all kinds of incoming on it.
16:17
[laughs] Imagine if it was JBT, so it was like, oh, Joey Chestnut. Uh, okay. Uh, I'm just worried about, I'm just worried about the follow the money guys, 'cause it's a huge deal for them, right?
16:27
Don't they have him on all the time? So I'm just worried about them. Hopefully okay. Well- Yeah... I'd be more worried about Mitch who just adopted a young baby boy. How about that? Can we- So I figure you're...
16:33
[laughs] Can, can we congratulate Mitch on air? Yes. We found, uh, we found out yesterday after the show, uh, Goulet came here and he told us that, that Mitch and his wife adopted a little boy. Um, what a blessing.
16:44
Um, I texted Mitch yesterday, but I'll say it on air what I said to him, which is, "Well, congratulations. Mazel tov.
16:49
What a absolute, uh, life-affirming, life-changing thing, and may it be everything that they, he and his wife ever imagined it to be to the positive." So congratulations to Mitch on that.
17:00
Uh, obviously much more of an important thing. Um, okay, NBA finals, we were just talking, Kelly and I, about the Porziņģis injury, which again is a very rare one.
17:10
There's not really a comp for this, so we can't lean on, oh, that guy had this and he was out for this amount of time. Um, I'm, again, just spider senses for me, I don't see the...
17:21
I don't think there's any way he plays tonight. I'm not sure he plays again, quite frankly. I don't know. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong. If that's the case, if he's out, let's start with tonight.
17:30
How much does that move the needle for you? 'Cause it, it incrementally moved the betting line.
17:35
Yeah, I think it moves, uh, for me, it moves the needle f- I think more from a total perspective than it does from a side perspective. With him not out there, it does a lot of different things for Dallas.
17:45
First off, defensively for Dallas, now you, thank God, have finally somewhere to stash one of your centers defensively.
17:50
Right now you can, you can have somebody as a non-shooting threat because the guy who's gonna be out there instead of Al Horford is probably gonna be Luke Kornet.
17:56
So you're perfectly fine putting your five on their five and, and not being in a position where you're gonna get destroyed.
18:00
On the other end, and why I think this helps offensively, is now Luka Dončić is going to have a true center to go after, and he's going to be able to attack drop coverage. Kornet is going to drop.
18:10
They're going to have success there. The lobs might come back in those minutes, too. So I think that helps your offense kind of open up here.
18:16
But I do think we have to remember, Gil, um, Kornet, if he does play and Kristaps Porziņģis does not, he is still coming off of the bench.
18:22
We're, we're still talking about maybe 20 minutes for Kornet in these spells, and, and Al Horford's minutes are generally gonna go up, and I don't know if that impact is enough.
18:30
If you're right, and by the way, I tend to agree with you because the Celtics have lied every step of the way- Yes... about Porziņģis from before the series all the way up until this point right now.
18:37
Um, i- so I think that the, it's impactful from a scoring standpoint, and the market kind of bet these overs, right? Game one really went o- or the, uh, number went up. Game two you saw a little bit of as well.
18:47
I think you're more willing to bet these games over now if Porziņģis is not going to play, as opposed to rush to bet the Dallas Mavericks to win this series.
18:54
Because while it's impactful, you still gotta figure out how to contain this dribble penetration that has destroyed you through two games, and you still have a team that is one of the best shooting teams, best catch and shoot shooting teams, that has shot absolutely abhorrently through the first two games, and that has yet to come around, too.
19:08
So I don't think it moves the needle for me from, hey, Dallas has a chance.
19:11
I think it's more of these games become a little bit more higher scoring 'cause Dallas can actually operate on offense So let's, let's clarify that.
19:17
So you believe that Dallas does have a puncher's chance here to come back and win this series or, or you do not? No, I, I don't. I want to make that clear. Yeah. No, I don't.
19:25
Like, I think that Boston's going to win this series. I still think there's a perfectly reasonable chance that they still win this at about five, which is what my, uh, my selection was before the series began.
19:34
Because I think one of the things out of, out of all the conversations we've had about this series, the one thing that is not really being talked about enough is the fact that the Celtics have figured out this defense.
19:44
They are shooting 83% at the rim. They went 14 to 14 in game one. They went 20 to 27 in game two.
19:50
Their spacing has absolutely demolished one of the best paid defenses in the NBA, and you are still, for a vast majority of your minutes on the floor, because Al Horford's gonna start and be your starting center.
20:00
If Porziņģis cannot play, you're going to have a five that is c- that is going to be, needed to be taken, uh... excuse me, to be noticed, right, defensively.
20:07
You're gonna have to respect him, and that I think is still gonna be there. So I think all of the advantages that Boston has are still there.
20:13
I just think you get more scoring from Dallas, and maybe these games get a little bit higher scoring. Yeah, okay.
20:18
Um, let me ask you this, and I'm not putting you on blast, uh, um, 'cause I'm gonna raise my hand and say I'm front of the line for this. I have felt... I said this in some form the last couple days.
20:27
I have felt that I have had less of a feel of this NBA playoffs as a collective than I have in any post-season in any sport that I can actually remember.
20:37
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe there was one, but I just feel like I was wrong about everything. Uh, with the headline being, of course, Denver losing to Minnesota in seven. But I've been wrong about multiple things.
20:46
Then I thought that Minnesota, Denver was the NBA finals, de facto NBA finals, and so on and so forth. Um, do you feel that way? Do you feel...
20:56
Maybe, maybe not the worst, but do you feel like it's up there in terms of, you know, post-seasons that have not gone as precisely as you thought they would have? And if you do, is there a reason for that?
21:06
Is there something happening in the league that is causing this? So I think you guys talked about this on Monday when I was on Follow the Money, and as I was driving home and listening, I said, "Uh-huh. Yep."
21:14
I was listening as you were talking about it. I agree. [laughs] Uh, and I do think that some of this does have to do with the injuries that we've experienced.
21:20
You know, there's been quite a few injuries that have changed series. I think one of the best examples is New York and Indiana.
21:25
As somebody who had laid one and a half games to New York and felt confident in the Knicks, they go up two-nothing, and then what happens? O.G.
21:30
Anunoby gets hurt, Mitch Robinson get hurt, and then the rest of the way, they play like a team that has nobody left. And we can go through series after series where you kind of see some of those examples.
21:38
You get a wild series like Timberwolves, Nuggets, which was all over the place.
21:41
But I do think with the injuries and guys being in and out of the lineups, I think that has helped with the, I think, chaos, you can say, of what this post-season has been to a certain extent. I, I'm with you.
21:50
I have not had the best read overall. I'll, I'll also bring up what I told you a- on the break, of the...
21:54
If you woulda told me, if you woulda told me that the Mavericks would look this much worse than the Pacers from last round- Yeah, yeah... that would've been the most shocking thing to me going into this round.
22:03
Well, that's what I... Just when you think it can't get any more ridiculous- Right, yes... right? Yeah. And I guess w- and, and you can't predict that thing. I guess the only...
22:10
I, I guess there is a listener or two out there who are probably like, "With Thibodeau, you could have actually predicted this," right? Like, that's the one- Yeah, yeah...
22:15
team that you might have been able to like, "Uh, I probably should stay away from." But other than that, you just can't, right? I mean, it's, it just is what it is, as the kids say.
22:24
John, appreciate the Joey Chestnut insight as well. Thank you, sir. Of course. You got it. @meJVT. JBT, weight, weight loss thing going well? Are you feeling confident about it with Dustin? Oh, yeah. Absolutely.
22:35
He's gonna lose. [laughs] Okay. There, there's our quick update on that. Look at him, having beverages with hints of flavor. Jonathan Bartole, everybody. We'll come back.
22:45
Uh, we'll talk about multiple sports, including golf next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment of A Numbers Game is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
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23:49
Smoke-free, spit-free, hassle-free. What else can you say that about in life? Don't answer that, Kelly. I want- We get tweets that beat [laughs] in the book now that I ask it. [laughs] Probably shouldn't have.
23:59
Tripp Tepper: Uh, an argument could be made that the Kobe Bryant trade orchestrated by Jerry West is the greatest trade in NBA history. Um, you could absolutely make that argument.
24:09
A draft day, uh, trade with the Charlotte Hornets, uh, engineered by the great Jerry West, who in case you missed it, passed away at the age of 86, was announced this morning.
24:18
Uh, DP, uh, Advocate, uh, Advocate Skirmish has Jrue Holiday at five to one for MVP. Doesn't help us here in Nevada there, uh, DP- Yeah, that keeps getting shorter... but thank you. Wow. Yeah. Teasers and parlays.
24:30
We need a segment each week where Dr. Gil Alexander breaks down tendons and ligaments to, uh, so eloquently, along with bouncer Kelly Bidlin pronouncing tennis player and hockey goalie names. I'm for it.
24:41
All right, I got something better for you. How about we got USA versus India ICCT 20 match starting right now in Long Island? We gotta get Dan Weston on. Yeah, we do. You're right. We do.
24:51
Apparently, US cricket's like a thing or something. [laughs] I think it is. Just beat Pakistan last week. It was a big deal. It's like one of the largest upsets in sports history. Yeah, it was a big deal. 3JackH3131.
25:00
Uh, Gil, Behind the Music was great, but can we bring back pop-up videos? Wow. Oh, that was some pop-up video, huh? Pop-up video. Pop-up video. What did they do?
25:08
They had like comedians commenting on stuff that was going down in the videos? Yeah, it'd be like music video, yeah, and then little, little text would pop up on screen. It's awesome.
25:17
It's like, uh, remember, remember Mystery Science Theater 3000 or whatever? I loved that show too. I, I do not. I do not. Oh, they used to watch like old movies, and then they'd just comment over them the whole time.
25:26
When Behind the Music continues, Rick James laments not remembering five years of his life
25:31
Uh, Three Jack also goes on to say, "Looking forward to the MLB wins in June update as a holder of the, of a Baltimore Orioles ticket. Great show as always." Oh, good. Well, thank you for that.
25:41
Um, yes, uh, the current update, your Baltimore Orioles, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, just checking this out right now. Uh, your Baltimore Orioles should be at the top or near the top.
25:51
Sorry I didn't have this, uh, prepared, um, as we run burgundy through these. It's okay. I'll add, I'll add, I'll d- I discovered my second favorite player on the Baltimore Orioles the other day.
26:00
You know Ryan Mountcastle- Yeah... is my favorite. Um, I didn't know the second baseman had such a great name too. Jordan Westberg. Oh, yeah. Jordan Westberg, that's a good one. Jordan Westberg. I like that. Gotcha.
26:11
Okay. That's a good one. Uh, Yankees eight and two, Orioles eight and three leading the, uh, the June sweepstakes so far. The Astros, uh, six and four. Hmm. Uh, Cody,
26:21
uh, Brooks Gate, our guy from yesterday that we were talking about with baseball stats, he just put out something seven minutes ago about teams that have performed the worst this year [laughs] against the, uh, the Rockies, the White Sox, and the Marlins.
26:36
And there are the Guardians at the top of that, and that's what cost us our- Our bet... May bet on this. And finally, The Auburnist. We'll read more tweets later.
26:43
"Let's not forget about the futures bets in the hot dog eating contest. Found the field seven to one against Joey Chestnut before the news." Isn't that getting voided though? Probably. Ah, Auburnist.
26:53
Good, good thinking though. I mean, good call, good thought. Good thinking, man. SEC. SEC. He hates that, by the way.
26:59
Ladies and gentlemen, from Washington, DC, commonly known as the DMV when you throw in Maryland, Virginia, and all the kids today, it's our buddy Sia Nejad who joins us courtesy of the Progressive Gaslight Tuck US Open.
27:10
He's the host and analyst for Monumental Sports Network, and you can follow him on Twitter @Sia, S-I-A, N-E-J-A-D, Nejad on Twitter. How you doing, Sia? I'm doing well. You all just took me down memory lane.
27:21
Like, the, the VH1, MTV, old reality- Oh, man... music related, sometimes not music related. Like, we could go to, like, celebrity rehab. Like, there, there's- [laughs]...
27:31
so many different shows that were really good, good content, uh, that are irreplaceable. We don't see them anymore today. What a great way to grow up, right? It was so good back then. Um, okay. US Open, Pinehurst.
27:44
What are you looking for here in a golfer, and how are we starting with Scottie Scheffler? How are we dealing with him? By the way, Surreal Life, that's another really good one. [laughs] Go back and watch those.
27:53
Um, how we dealing with Scottie? So this is interesting. So last week, here's how I dealt with Scottie. I bet him, I bet outrights in the without Scottie Scheffler market, and one of them was Collin Morikawa.
28:03
Now, I ha- I bet him both ways. I bet Collin Morikawa at 14 to one, and then I bet him, uh, at 10 to one, this is last week, 10 to one without Scottie Scheffler.
28:11
I think you can do that this week, but I do think there's also an argument that while Scottie Scheffler is clearly an unbelievable course fit, and while he's clearly the best golfer in the world,
28:21
uh, I think this, this golf course offers enough variance, enough random trouble and potentially bad luck- Ooh...
28:27
that you could just go, go ahead and roll the dice and just play the outright market with Scottie Scheffler included.
28:33
I think it really comes down to your risk tolerance, how much the number is depleted if you take without, w- if you do it without Scottie Scheffler.
28:40
So far, I've only placed two outright bets, and they've both been with Scottie Scheffler, because I placed these bets early when I knew the without Scottie Scheffler market wasn't even gonna be available.
28:49
It was Sunday afternoon when I took Collin Morikawa at 20 to one and Hideki Matsuyama at 50 to one.
28:55
So I may go back, since I've only bet two guys, I may go back and add one or two plays, and I'm still deciding whether or not those plays are going to include Scottie Scheffler or be without Scottie Scheffler.
29:05
But I think you could play it either way this week.
29:06
And Sia points that out because even last week or the week before, I can't remember, it was the week before because, uh, be- 'cause I wasn't here last week, you were playing outright markets that did not include him, correct?
29:15
And now you're saying- Right... for this one, you, you're fine. By the way, I played Scheffler top five minus 135, and I played Scheffler top 10 minus 235. Nice. I like it. Yeah.
29:25
I'm, I'm kind of chuckling over here 'cause I made those same, I made Morikawa and Hideki bets, I think, on the same, same day, same time as you, Sia. [laughs] I, that's why I emailed you this morning. Love it.
29:34
I hope you win a lot of money this week. [laughs] The top 20s, top 30s, I see you got a couple. Yeah, so I, I, as you can tell, I like Hideki Matsuyama. I like what he can do on tough courses.
29:45
Uh, we saw even round four at the Memorial, like, that was a really tough round for pretty much every, uh, everybody. Other than a handful of players, Hideki Matsuyama was one of those handful of players.
29:55
I think his odds are, are sort of depressed a little bit because he has been shaking off injuries it feels like over the last couple of years, but certainly earlier in the year, and he had a recent withdrawal.
30:04
I, I like how he looked at the Memorial, and so I like him as an outright, but I also like him as a top 20 play, especially when I'm getting plus 160. So I've got Hideki in the top 20 market there.
30:13
I think you could ladder him. Again, it, it, you gotta be careful with la- and by laddering, I mean you could take him top 10, top 20, top 30, and just kind of adjust your unit size accordingly.
30:22
Uh, with that said, again, th- this course does offer a lot of blowup opportunities, so you could ladder somebody, and this is not, you know, he could, he could completely bomb.
30:30
But I do like Hideki's ability to shine on a tough course, especially with his recent form.
30:36
Other finishing position plays, uh, a couple of guys that played well last week and are, I think are good at tough courses, are good at saving par, which is what you're gonna need to do.
30:43
Alex Noren T30 at plus 165 and Kristijan Bezancon at plus 170. Uh, Bezancon had a really good week last week. He doesn't feel like a great course fit because he's not great off the tee. He's not super accurate.
30:55
He's not super long. But he has been super dialed in with his long irons, and we know his short game is there, and so the short game's gonna be really important this week. Those are a few finishing position plays I like.
31:04
Whenever I hear Bezancon, I hear Matt Brown in the background just screaming his name. Bez-a-nuc. Yep. [laughs] That- Every time... uh, hey, Sia, I got a question for you.
31:11
I feel like there, no, I, I feel like there's not a lot of people talking about this this week. Um, but you don't have him on your card. I don't have him on my card.
31:17
So I think you're the pers- perfect person to ask this. Cam Smith, I feel like everybody's either, everybody's either fading him or betting on him. Where do you stand on Cam Smith this week? Yeah, it's a good question.
31:29
I, I don't love his form coming in. I, I did see a long thread on Twitter, uh, about somebody who followed his round.
31:34
I literally was just looking at it like 10 minutes ago, and he looks to be in pretty good form, he, a- according to that thread, and there was, like, video, uh, along with the thread, so I mean, it was reliable information.
31:43
At least in his practice round, he looked very comfortable. He's a guy that has sort of that...
31:47
strokes game, magic beans, where, you know, like, he can kind of figure it out, save par, do things on a tough course that a lot of people can't do or aren't even comfortable trying. Uh, so I think Cam Smith is fine.
31:58
He's not gonna make my outright card. I mean, admittedly, some of these LIV guys, I just don't know what to do with. Like, I'm not betting Brooks Koepka either. I'm not betting Bryson.
32:06
I think those two guys are gonna be some of the popular names. I have no problem, I take no issue with anybody betting Cam Smith.
32:12
Um, and, and honestly, I think in the top 20, top 30 market, he makes a lot of sense, but he's not making my outright card. All right, 60 seconds, Sia.
32:20
Rafa on clay, Iga on clay, and then Sian Nejad on first round leader bets. What do you got? Oh, I got Rafa, for one. Um, also I got the Mavericks tonight. I'm wearing Dallas blue. Oh, there you go. I like them.
32:33
I like them money line. I think they're live to win this series. It's plus 600 or so. Let's go. Just throwing that out there. All right. First round leaders, uh, Collin Morikawa, he's great in first rounds.
32:42
The only reason I didn't have him last week as a first round leader is because he started in the afternoon, and he still almost got the first round lead.
32:48
Love the form, cashed him last week in, in the without Scottie Scheffler market. Give me plus 3000 as a first round leader. Here's three more. Justin Thomas and Tony Finau.
32:56
I'll group them together, 'cause I don't think they can do it over four days with the putter, but I do think they can do it for one, and their ball striking has been amazing.
33:03
So give me Justin Thomas at 45 to one, Tony Finau at 55 to one, and then finally, taking a shot again at Sam Burns.
33:08
It burned me two weeks ago, no pun intended, because he was in a two-way tie, and then he got passed by David skins? David skins, everybody. Uh, but I, I... Little FOMO on that.
33:17
I'm gonna take him a little sprinkle at 60 to one. Sia, thank you so much. By the way, you, you, you said you love the Mavs to win the series. Kelly's got a ticket. He didn't even get excited when you said it.
33:25
He's so, like, downtrodden by it. I hope Si is right, man. I hope he's right. I like the number. I like the number right now. He likes the number. Always bet the number.
33:33
There was a guy at the South Point that used to say that. Bet the number. Thank you, Sia, appreciate it. Uh- Thanks, fellas... we're coming back. College baseball, College World Series with Matt Grissom next.
33:50
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This is A Numbers Game. I'm Gil Alexander. Coming up, we're gonna talk US Open, but first, here's Stormy Bonatoni with your Moment of Zen.
34:06
This is your Betting Moment of Zen, brought to you by Zen nicotine pouches. Find your moment of zen at zen.com.
34:11
Stormy Bonatoni here with VSiN, the sports betting network, diving into the odds for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year.
34:17
To the surprise of no one, number one overall pick Caleb Williams is the shortest shot to claim the hardware at plus 135. The Bears QB is set to be a day one starter and has plenty of skill position talent to work with.
34:27
DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow top 10 pick Rome Odunze, to name a few. And the Bears, on paper, have one of the weaker strength of schedules.
34:34
From one former Heisman Trophy winner to another, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is next on the odds board at plus 650. Daniels' ability as a runner should help his case, especially with new OC Kliff Kingsbury in tow.
34:45
Marvin Harrison Jr. is set at seven to one, followed by JJ McCarthy 12 to one, Blake Nabers 18 to one, and Drake Maye 22 to one. This has been your Daily Betting Moment of Zen.
34:54
Learn more about Zen smoke-free nicotine pouches at zen.com. Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Zen is intended for adult nicotine users over 21 years of age. Thank you, Stormy.
35:03
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35:21
Visit omahasteaks.com and use promo code VSIN at checkout. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billings. Do you think you'll ever be able to hear the word Omaha again and not think about Peyton Manning yelling it?
35:33
It's a great... I, you know, I thought you were gonna go with Omaha Steaks, but I was about to say, no, Peyton Manning screaming Omaha. That's all I can th- that's really all I can think of whenever I hear the word.
35:39
'Cause he did it with that Peyton Manning voice. Omaha. Mm-hmm. Just like that. Just- Just like Peyton. It's like- We're basically the same guy... it's like Peyton was sitting right here next to me.
35:47
[laughs] We get tweets of beating the book. This is from Eric, @efeezy450.
35:51
All right, efeezy, "Hot dog producers are missing out on a huge opportunity to match up Kobayashi versus Chestnut to destroy Nathan's stronghold on hot dog contests. I'm looking at you, Hebrew National.
36:01
Your dogs are already superior." [laughs] That's great. Buddhist man. We love Buddhists.
36:08
Uh, "Watching today on a 30-minute delay, I was rushing to my Twitter machine," uh, copyright Anthony Irwin Kornhauser, "to make the exact Secretariat versus Joey Chestnut comparison that you did, Gil.
36:18
I was even going to work in a 'Joey Chestnut is chewing like a tremendous machine,' which is how, uh, Secretariat was described down the stretch at the 1973 Belmont Stakes." And then the numbers guys, uh, "Morning, gang.
36:32
College World Series is four from the ACC and four from the SEC. Dang. I long for the days of Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State. Then again, one of them may very well be in the ACC now."
36:42
[laughs] "That A is for Atlantic Ocean, right?" [laughs] That's very good as well. Yeah. And he's feeling good, he says, about, uh, Scotty at plus 325 for the US Open.
36:51
That's what he's got, uh, Scotty Scheffler to win the US Open. Uh, before we get your US Open thoughts, uh, do have picks at vsin.com/picks.
36:59
Every host, every guest, no matter the sport, uh, for subscribers, our picks are up at vsin.com/picks.
37:05
I had d- two tennis, two grass court, we're on grass now, two grass court tennis picks overnight, one of which was played. We lost. I had Yannik Hanfmann, Yannik Hanfmann, uh, I had him at plus...
37:19
Well, let me get the exact number right here. At plus 178. He loses to Big T, Frances Tiafoe, seven five, seven six. Lost seven five in the breaker. Hanfmann in ti- in, uh, break points today, O for 11. Is that good?
37:37
It's like, it's a, it's, it's the quintessential nice handicap, sorry it didn't work out, buddy. Oh, that sucks, man. [laughs] That sucks. O for 11.
37:47
I mean, there's, there are tennis matches you bet where someone goes double digits o- opportunities, but they hit a few of them. O for 11. Uh, the only one that's left- Is in Nottingham. Nottingham in England.
37:58
Uh, Heather Watson, the Brit, I have her at plus 185. She's about plus 178 right now against, uh, Karolina Pliskova, who used to be awesome on grass.
38:07
Um, hasn't played nearly as much through the last few years 'cause of injuries. Um, but I got Watson at plus 185. That's a little later on. US Open, Pinehurst, North Carolina, golf's third major of the year.
38:21
Uh, Scottie Scheffler is your short shot. You, Kelly, have done not one, not two, but 75 episodes of Long Shots this week. [laughs] We look forward to the broadcast here in about 40 minutes. Yeah, that's right.
38:33
Much more detail there, but we could definitely run through everything. Yeah, what do you got? Uh, everything here. This is, um, you know, quick course notes.
38:39
I think if you are looking to handicap, uh, at home y- yourself, uh, this is a, Pinehurst number two is a very different and interesting setup.
38:47
You can, uh, if you watch any of the flyover video or anything, you'll basically see a very nice golf course, Gil, that looks like a great US Open setup, except instead of four-inch rough, you just have that all torn out and ripped out and some of these waste areas with wire grass and stuff- Oh, man...
39:03
that these guys gotta play out of. So what is that gonna mean? Well, you wanna stay out of that, but you're gonna see, Sia talked about it a little bit. You're gonna see some really random lies.
39:13
Like some- sometime guys are gonna have clean shots out of there, sometimes they're gonna be an absolute disaster. So it- I could see some disaster on this overhead. This is why- Yeah... I, I don't disagree.
39:23
I, I made some bets in the winter without Scottie Scheffler market, but I don't disagree with Sia's thought of there could be some, you know, just variant, more variance at a course like this that you might actually be more willing to go up against Scheffler just 'cause some crazy stuff might happen.
39:39
And as you wrote- And as you pointed out yesterday, it wasn't like he was infallible this past weekend. He wobbled a lot. Correct. Yeah, he did. He did.
39:44
Um, and this is, this is where I think you and I were having this conversation off air, but I was ta- asking Sia and Josh about Cameron Smith, 'cause I think he's, he's one of the most often brought up guys I've heard from other golf bettors this week, and with a lot of people on him or against him.
39:59
And I think reasons make, the both, reasons for that both make sense. He's an around the greens wizard. Everybody remembers that from the Open last year where he won.
40:08
This is going to be a tournament where around the green play is very, very important. So that part makes sense.
40:14
Here's the part that doesn't make sense, and I know Matt Brown's fading him, and I know this is part of the reason why. The guy's gained strokes off the tee in one event in Li- on LIV this year.
40:24
LIV is not as good as the PGA Tour. If you're not beating the field [laughs] Jeez...
40:28
gaining off the tee, that means you are not driving the ball very well, and if you're gonna be playing out of the wire grass waste areas all tournament long, I don't have much faith in. I'm staying away.
40:38
Sounds like Sia's staying away for the most part too, because I could see either, either reality playing out, but not, I, I'm, I'm not gonna g- I'm not interested in that this week.
40:48
Um, from 2014, seven holes at a bogey or worse percentage at 30% or more. That is, uh, that is, uh, a lot. [laughs] Three putt rate, uh, was over 5% in 2014 when they play, la- last played here.
41:02
So you're gonna see a lot of that. Greens are gonna be very tough. They are extremely firm. I know we have a couple videos of this as well.
41:09
Um, you're gonna see balls hit here that you think are gonna be great shots, and they are gonna roll right off the green, and then these guys gotta play from these shaved down greens.
41:17
Uh, there were a couple videos floating around of, yeah, just these guys dropping balls and watch this thing just roll, roll, roll, roll. Ooh, tabletop. Exactly. So- Look at that...
41:26
this is gonna be tough on approach, Gil. This is gonna be tough putting that these guys gotta deal with this week. And you- But I love this. This is what the US Open is supposed to be. Yeah, yeah.
41:36
I mean, I mean, it's, it's, it's gonna be great US Open conditions. You just don't have the really thick rough that we all get used to. Mm-hmm.
41:42
So this is, you're gonna see a lot of these balls just run off the green and run down into these areas. This is, this is, this is a video of a chip onto the green, and you're gonna see this roll right back off.
41:52
Odds of someone saying this course is unfair at some point during the week. Oh, minus 10,000. Yeah. So yeah, you're gonna see a lot of that. It's important, uh, important stuff to look at this week.
42:02
Um, so that, I think it makes a lot of sense for what Sia was talking about. This is Collin Morikawa using like a five wood around the green. You know, you're gonna have to make the decision. Do you want to chip?
42:11
Do you want to try to just putt it from off the green? Do you want to use a different club like he is? So all that stuff to keep in mind. As far as my bets for the week, a couple outrights I mentioned earlier.
42:21
Same thing. I did, I bet Morikawa Sunday morning, um, in the outright market. That was all that was posted at that point. Hideki I had bet, I believe on Sunday, if not Saturday, uh, 50 to 1 as well.
42:33
Um, guys I added, winner without Scheffler. I did add Keegan there this week. Um, look, Keegan has been great off the tee. If you were on him last week, sorry, you got the full Keegan Bradley experience.
42:43
One shot off the lead on Friday and then completely craters over the weekend. Um, but I will be back on him go- going just for the high, high end, uh, result here with the, uh, winner without Scheffler market.
42:54
And then I added Brooks, Gil. When we're talking- Oh, boy... when we're talking US Open, tough conditions, mental fortitude, if you will, these guys gonna have.
43:03
There's always one guy you gotta think of, and it's Brooks Koepka. So I didn't go crazy with it, but a winner without Scheffler market, I did add him at 18 to 1. I thought that was a good number I'm willing to go with.
43:13
Uh, love Scheffler this week. Look, he's number one rated guy. Five wins last time he's, the last 18 times he's teed it up. Hard to ignore that. I'm, I'm with you. Top five, let's go.
43:24
Um, and then the, my, my three biggest bets this week would be Scheffler top five and then Schauffele, Morikawa top 10. They were my two biggest bets last week. I'm going right back to them.
43:32
Schauffele and Morikawa I think set up perfectly for this. Morikawa's on an absolute heater right now. Um, so him in the top 20 market as well. Tommy Fleetwood, uh, really haven't bet him at all this year.
43:42
This, the game's starting to come around though.
43:44
Uh, another, he's not, not the furthest, not the longest off the tee, not the longest with his irons, Gil, which concerns me a little bit 'cause that is definitely what you need to be looking for this week in a golfer.
43:55
This is still a long track. No matter how much you hear about accuracy off the tee being more important, these guys still gotta bomb it. Um, but like him enough in top 20 market at plus money, plus 138.
44:06
Uh, and then you could go, if you want to aim high on these guys, I decided to play top 40, Sepp Straka and Aaron Rai. Both of them braid out really high for me this week though.
44:13
If you wanted to take a longer shot, play them in the top 20 market, I wouldn't hate it. Aaron Rai over Steven Yeager in a tournament matchup. Wipe away all my Jon Rahm matchups. Those got destroyed.
44:23
And Hideki Matsuyama's the top of Japanese play. I'm gonna ask you a question. You can think about it over the break. Okay. Give an answer at the other end.
44:29
Is there a current tour player who is a comp to like an Andy North, who only won three tournaments in his whole career, but two were US Opens? That's the question. You can answer that on the other side.
44:40
Jason Weingarten joins us as well. Numbers game.
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
