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Jun 14, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 14, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 14, 2024
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44:18
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number li- uh, producer number nine, live from Bar Canada. Eric D, what's happening, man? Oh, nothing much. This was, uh [laughs] - Working on your mic there? Yeah. Did you catch that? Yeah.
0:31
By the way, let me close this up. You catch that? Yeah. What's, what's happening there with my shirt? Hey, sorry about that, ladies. I, I think there was a party at this table last night- Yeah...
0:36
so I had to thoroughly wipe it down, uh, this morning. Oh, really? And, and the crew might have as well. Sorry, is that...
0:41
I, I'm sure they helped as well, but I, I, I wiped down my area and then put the headset down in it, and right as I put it on, I realized the microphone was disgustingly wet. Ugh, that is a disgusting way- [laughs]...
0:52
to start this program, ladies and gentlemen. On the show today, Chris Felica, The Bear. He's got thoughts on, uh, Euro Cup 2024.
1:00
He's out in LA, by the way, for, like, the next five or six weeks, talking about international soccer tournaments. So- Nice... nice life for The Bear, Chris Felica. He'll b- he'll join us here in about a half hour.
1:11
He's been busy the past couple weeks. [laughs] Belmont. Now he's gotta go- That's it... in studio to do soccer? Whew. Listen, we don't want him to, uh, get out of bed to earn his money, but, uh- [laughs]...
1:19
for five weeks I think we're okay. Uh, John Lagasse will join us to talk, uh, baseball with us, his baseball bets of the day. A little instant offense from Lagasse.
1:28
Matt Lindeman will join us to talk College World Series. Uh, I ran into Matt a few months ago, uh, walking outside. You ran into him as well. Yep, yeah. I just ran into him a few weeks ago.
1:40
Assistant director of trading at the Wynn. He's a big College World Series fan. Mm-hmm. So he's got thoughts on that. Uh, our own Stormy Bonatony on the UFL Championship, championship game this week. Let's go.
1:50
Let's go, Brahmas. Birmingham against San Antone. Birmingham's only lost once this year. You know who they lost to? The Brahmas, and that is their championship. Drama in the UFL.
2:01
Stormy will be here to, to, uh, talk about that with us. Also talk to her about hockey. Yeah. 'Cause, uh, that appears to be over as well. Yeah.
2:09
Panthers up three to nothing now after the four to three win over the Oilers yesterday. And Jason Weingarten. Everybody's on the show. Um, wanna start obviously with the NBA [laughs]
2:18
because, uh, you might have noticed this about, uh, my, uh, sort of thoughts on, on this, uh, series. And, uh,
2:26
I, I keep citing the stat about these NBA playoffs where the losing team in these best of seven series in the entire breadth of the, uh, NBA playoffs, Eastern and Western Conference, all of it, has won an average of 1.2 games.
2:37
That's how uncompetitive this NBA playoffs has been. And as a matter of fact, when you distill it to the two conference tournaments and the NBA finals, if the Celtics win tonight, Kelly, we could have a 12 to one
2:52
situation, historical situation, in conference finals and the NBA finals. It would be 4041, 'cause remember the- Yeah... Heat only got one game off the Mavericks, and if the Celtics close it out tonight, it would be 401.
3:03
So 12 to one, that would be historical. That has never happened before.
3:06
So, um, that's the kind of thing we're talking about, and quite frankly, and I know we're a betting network and I know we're a betting show, but if there was ever a time in the sports betting calendar where I would not recommend you betting something, not to say you can't bet it and win, and if you do, good for you, but game four of an NBA finals like tonight's would be that moment where I would say, "Eh, you should probably stay away from this."
3:29
I was sitting with Carl Sack yesterday, which we'll get to momentarily. Carl Sack, uh, some folks know as NBA Guru. He and I worked with Dr. Bob for many years.
3:36
The best NBA handicapper I've ever observed, um, historically, just incredible. And even he yesterday was like, "Yeah," 'cause you just don't...
3:44
The bottom line is you cannot f- there's no way for you to know if the Mavericks are gonna be motivated to avoid- Yes, yes... a sweep, or if they're just gonna lie like the choking dogs that they've been.
3:55
I, it, it's, I, I think you said it well, and we, we, and we, we so rarely go into, like, the mental side in games- Yes...
4:03
like this, but I think it's, I think it's so hard to, I think it's so hard to assume one way or the other with a team that's in a situation like this, especially a team that's so, that is so dominated by their stars, right?
4:15
Like, if [laughs] okay, if Luka or Kyrie decides that they're giving up or they're giving 110% tonight, like, that's a big difference in the game. Yeah. So yeah, I, I mean, I don't...
4:24
J- just like I said in game three, Gil, I mean, the only side I could imagine possibly betting on tonight would be the Boston Celtics. It still would...
4:30
Hey, even the Mavericks when they've been giving, give, uh, been giving their best shot are nowhere close to as good as what this team has been, so.
4:36
Well, I do have two observations, one of which is a betting one and one of which is not.
4:41
Let's start with the one that's not, and that is I've been bringing up the Celtics for, for lack of a, you know, a, a feel here certainly as the series has moved on.
4:49
Uh, I, I've been bringing up the Celtics in a historical perspective, and I brought it up with Drew Ditz a couple days ago, you may recall.
4:55
And I asked him, I said, "Look, uh, these Celtics have the possibility of going here, if they win tonight, 80 and 20 when you, uh, put the regular season and the playoffs together.
5:04
If they lose tonight and they win in a gentleman sweep, 80 and 21, whatever the case. Where do, where do you feel that puts them in historical perspective?" And his line was, "On paper, they're a super team," he said.
5:16
Mm-hmm. Um, he added, "I don't know that they'll be an all-time great, but they are a super team." And I quipped, 'cause I like to quip, Kelly, I don't know if you know that. Uh, on the way out I said, "Really?
5:27
'Cause I, I think..."
5:28
And, and not that, not that this was an argument, 'cause he said, "I don't know if they'll be a super team," 'cause I said in my mind's eye, like, there's a bunch of Warriors teams that would've crushed this team.
5:35
That was my thought on the way out. Yeah. And so c- I said to Carl yesterday, 'cause Carl wanted no part of game four, I was like, "Could you, uh, do a little bit of analysis on this stuff?"
5:44
So now he said, like, if you really wanted to do the analysis, and this is Carl Sack talking, and he, and he knows his stuff.
5:50
Uh, if you really want to do the analysis, what he was saying was, and I'll read it verbatim, uh, you would, you would basically have to say, you'd, you'd have to dive into, you know-
6:03
As, as a first pass, this is just a first pass, is just going to wins, win percentage, and points per game differential.
6:11
But if you, if you really wanted to get into it, like, you'd have to really break down, you know, the rate of points, adjust for schedule. Like, you'd have to do a deeper dive.
6:21
But just for our purposes here, let's just talk about records and, and win, uh, you know, wins, win percentage, and, and points per game differential. And so where do this -- where does this Celtics team rank?
6:32
And I-- so what we did is we did the last 20 NBA champions. We went back 20 years, last 20 NBA champions.
6:39
And I threw in, 'cause I'm just trying to muddy the waters, I threw in the 73 and 9 record-setting regular season Warriors team that lost the NBA championship to the Cavaliers in seven, uh, back in 2015, 2016.
6:53
So when you do those 21 teams, that, that historical analysis, it is that Warriors team that lost the championship that had the most wins, 88 and 18 combined.
7:03
That's the most wins, 88, in a season, regular season plus the playoffs. That's the second-best win percentage of any team in the last 20 years, 83%.
7:11
And they were fourth in points per game differential, otherwise known as average margin of victory, 9.31 points per game, okay? That was the 73 and 9, lost the championship- Yeah... to the Cavs, uh, Warriors.
7:23
Can, can I add one more thing onto that season? Please. Yes. Which is this, this was fascinating 'cause I pulled up just historical net rating here, uh, on teams i-in best finishes.
7:32
You know that Warriors team [chuckles] you know the Spurs that year had a better net rating than them? The -- so I was, you, you, you jumped ahead where I was gonna go 'cause I was gonna mention that Spurs team.
7:41
Oh, [laughs] okay, yeah. 'Cause that Spurs team you're talking about actually from a, uh, points per game differential, average margin of victory, they actually ranked in this. They actually polluted this as well.
7:52
On that -- in that one category, um, they ended up, they ended up as, uh, the 67-win Spurs from that same year that lost in round two to OKC.
8:04
Remember that OKC team that then went up three to one on the Warriors and the Warriors came back and beat them. They had a 10.47, uh, differential in points.
8:12
So they would have actually finished third in the last 20 years in terms of points differential.
8:16
But in terms of champions and the 73 and 9, uh, Warriors of that one year, so that team, first in wins, second in win percentage, fourth in points per game differential.
8:26
The, the next year's Warriors, that team that went 16 and one in the postseason, and the South Point actually put up a prop, will they go 16 and 0, the just ridiculously dominant 2016, 2017 Warriors, they went 83 and 16 combined.
8:41
Second in total wins, tied for second in total wins. First in win percentage. Nobody has ever put together in the last 20 years a season like 83 and 16. That's just unbelievable.
8:51
And they were first in points per game differential, 11.96. So in many ways, as great as that 73 and 9 team was, it was the year after.
9:00
That Warriors team the year after that is clearly, I think, the best team in the last 20 years. Uh, the 2014-15 Warriors, if I just may add this, this is one that predated KD, the one where Dr.
9:13
Bob had them at like 40 to one. People didn't get how great they were yet. Yeah, yeah. They were second, tied for second in amount of wins. They were 83 and 20. Tied for the, the most, uh, wins in the last 20 years.
9:23
Second, tied for second. Third in win percentage. Third in points per game differential. So all three of those Warriors team are at the top of those Warriors teams.
9:32
These Celtics, who are currently 79 and 20, just for perspective now, last 20 years plus the 21st team, the 73 and 9 Warriors, they're seventh in wins, 79. They're fourth, fourth in win percentage, 79.8%, 79 and 20.
9:51
And here's where they really do rank, second in points per game differential. Second in average margin of victory, 11.14. Only those 2016, '17 Warriors top them.
10:03
So that's some perspective on where this Celtics team ranks. And yes, they did catch the royal flush of injuries in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That obviously helped this along.
10:13
But are they -- what, so what does that mean? Let's, let's be generous. Let's say they're the fourth-best team in the last 20 years, if we're being super generous. That's as high as you can really rank them.
10:24
If we went back 30 years, Kelly, then you would have to add in the '95, '96 Bulls and the '96, '97 Bulls of Jordan. Yeah, who are one, two everything you look at.
10:36
Yeah, because the '95, '96 Bulls were 72 and 10 in the regular season. They ended up 87%. They ended up 87 and 13.
10:46
So they'd have the second-most wins, the highest winning percentage, and the most, number one in points per game differential, 12.24.
10:55
The year after that, when they were s-- when they were a lowly 69 and 13, they still ended up 84 and 17 with an 83.2 percentage, uh, win percentage of the title and 10.80, uh, points per game differential.
11:08
So if you went back 30 years, you'd have to add those two teams in.
11:11
Now, detractors will say, and you can't really detract from Michael Jordan, but detractors, at least in that terms of historical contest, con-context, would say there's a lot of expansion in the NBA just before that, so they had an easier road that way.
11:22
So anyway, that's where the Celtics rank, about fourth generously, if they can close it out tonight in the last 20 years, or if they can close it out in game five.
11:32
Um, and then a little further down if you went back 30 years. So I think Drew's right. Super team, but like, you know, not historically great.
11:40
We can name three Dubs teams in the last, you know, recent history that are better by any sort of measure. We'll come back. What about NBA MVP, Fi-Finals MVP? We can bet that next.
11:56
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12:19
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12:23
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12:32
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12:44
I faked you out. Faked you out. Nice job, Kelly. Um, speaking of the NFL, the, the biggest news in the NFL yesterday, uh, lest we let that slip by the wayside, is of course Trevor Lawrence.
12:56
Uh, Trevor Lawrence being, uh, signed to an extension by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh, the details of which of course are always eye-opening when it's with a, uh, when it's with a quarterback in the NFL.
13:08
And we have said on this show many, many times, well, this is the cruelty of the economics of the NFL because the Jaguars at some point are gon- w- ha- knew that they'd have to make a decision on Trevor Lawrence, and so they signed him to a five-year, $275 million contract extension.
13:26
Adam Schefter the, uh, first to report that yesterday. The contract, Kelly, includes 200 million guaranteed, including 142 million at signing. That just shows up in one check. Is that how that works? They wire that in?
13:39
[smacks lips] Oh, yeah. There's the... Well, I'll, I always wonder about the guaranteed money too, 'cause yes, you get the signing bonus and then the guaranteed. Like, if it's guaranteed, can I just get it all up front?
13:49
No. Guaranteed I think is prorated, but the, but the signing bonus is right up, up top, I believe. Either way, it's a sweet day. But this is, you know, how many times have we said on this show?
13:57
You can only win an NFL championship, you can only win a Super Bowl if you have a rookie, a quarterback on a rookie deal that's over-performing and you can pay everybody else 'cause- Yeah...
14:07
he's capped, or a Hall of Famer. In the middle, there's the Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence,
14:14
Jared Goff of the world, and yes, time will tell if any of these guys will get there, but Kirk Cousinses, if you will, of the world, where they're good quarterbacks, maybe even very good, but are they great?
14:26
And it's beyond the rookie deal. So, but they get to a point in their career after the rookie deal where the team that has them is forced to make this massive economic decision.
14:34
Like, "Are we going to sign this guy for," again here, "$275 million, or are we going to go a different direction?" And these teams, they c- they, they're almost forced to do this- Yeah... because what are they gonna do?
14:46
What's the alternative, right? But here is, and this is courtesy of, uh, everybody's favorite, uh, Twitter feed, Kelly, Ghetto Gronk. Uh, this is Trevor Lawrence's first 50 games compared to Daniel Jones' first 50 games.
14:59
Now think about, before we get into it, think about how you th- how you perceive Daniel Jones, or the s- mainstream media perceives Daniel Jones, and then think about how the mainstream media or you perceive of Trevor Lawrence.
15:09
I think you will agree that no matter what you feel of Trevor Lawrence, uh, it's a better thought than you have of Daniel Jones. Well, look at that. Uh, first 50 games.
15:20
Now Daniel Jones has played 60 now, but first 50 games, which is exactly how many Trevor has played, uh, he's 20 of 30 win-loss record. Daniel Jones 19, 30 and 1. Almost the exact same thing. Uh, rating,
15:32
actually Daniel Jones' is better, 86 to 85. Total yards, uh, Trevor Lawrence has him beat by less than 300. Passing, uh, passing touchdowns, Trevor Lawrence 58, Daniel Jones 57.
15:46
Picks, actually Daniel Jones has fewer, 33 to Trevor Lawrence's 39. Yards per attempt, it's dead even at 6.7. Completion percentage, dead even at 63%. I think you get it, that these decisions are rife with pitfalls, man.
16:01
[laughs] And that they might just have signed the equivalent of Daniel Jones. I know that you probably... I'm not saying he's, that Daniel Jones is as good. I'm with you. [laughs] Trevor Lawrence is better.
16:11
But if you just look at those raw numbers, mm. We're, we're going off numbers here. Numbers and numbers. It's gonna go back to a tweet we just got from Rich, too, over what we talked about last segment.
16:20
But numbers are, you can't argue against the numbers. Like those- They don't lie... those, they don't lie, man. Yeah. Like, that is, that's the case. I, and you hit on the big point of, like, I don't, I don't...
16:29
I'm glad you said it, 'cause I didn't wanna get in a stupid argument over Trevor Lawrence' stupid, uh, face today. But the, uh- [laughs] Like, what do you, like these teams, right? His stupid face.
16:37
Like, what are they supposed to do? Like you said, like you- What is he supposed to do?... you gotta give him the money.
16:41
I was the one, though, with the Rams where I said they should be the first team to start, like, "Jared Goff, this was great. Nice run. Whoosh, we're starting over." Okay.
16:49
I was gonna bring this up, 'cause there's two decisions there, right? That's one, which you want to applaud them for. But I also feel like we all, we all loved Matthew Stafford. I don't think any of us thought, though,
17:01
there's, like, an all-time great quarterback sitting in Detroit, that if you just went and swapped quarterbacks you're going to a Super, you're winning a Super Bowl right away, right? Like, is that fair?
17:10
No, I'm just, I'm just pointing out that this is the cruelty of NFL economics. It is. It is. Right? It's all cruel, yep. Because what are you gonna do?
17:17
Every, every one of these days where another one of these stories comes down, it is like, I don't, I don't wanna turn into ESPN here- [laughs]... but you're like, "What are the Cowboys doing? Like, what are you doing?"
17:26
What are y- Well, first of all, what are they doing showing a Dak segment every... ESPN has now admitted that the more they talk about the Cowboys, they're like, "Guess what? You guys watch."
17:34
[laughs] Well, I think you have a little something to do with that. [laughs] Right. Maybe change it up and see if you can change behavior. Oh, but they s- they, they still gotta pay Dak, CeeDee Lamb- Bro...
17:42
and Micah Parsons, right? Like, what, th- is this gonna be a, a utter disaster that we see? Don't, don't worry, Kelly. Jerry's got it all figured out. Who was this lied to?
17:50
He's gonna be really aggressive this off-season or something like that? Yeah. We haven't seen any of that. Uh, all right. Back to the NBA for a second.
17:57
Real quick before we get off the historical thing, 'cause I wanna talk finals MVP. Yeah, I've still got final thoughts too. Net rating. Got final thoughts on that. What were your, what were your net ratings historical?
18:05
Net rating numbers Yeah, and that is points, you know, points per 100 possessions. What you score, subtract what you give up on the defensive side.
18:11
So all-time, where net rating ra- uh, ranks out, you have the b- 95-96 Bulls, the 96-97 Bulls, and then you have a tie for third with the 16-17 Warriors and this Boston Celtics team. Okay.
18:25
So for net rating, the, this, this year's Celtics team actually does get a little higher.
18:30
And as Carl Sachs said, and g- and thanks to Carl for those earlier stats, he had said he would start with play per efficiency since pace has dramatically increased. Sure. That's the big difference in the league, right?
18:38
Yep. Three point shooting and pace, and then maybe try to adjust for strength of schedule. Um, but this anyway, the ones that we did, was a first pass at it. Okay. Yeah, yeah. R- g- Rich's tweet here real quick.
18:48
He s- he said, "You overrated these Celtics. Would you take them over the 2023 Nuggets?" Question mark. "There's an average, they're an average champion and they'd lose four to two.
18:57
You're blinded by incredibly poor opponents." Numbers are numbers, man. Like, I- I, I, he's saying I'm blinded by it? I, I- Yeah, he's tweeting to both of us. I don't know.
19:04
Um- Well, no, I'm, I'm the one who's saying that this Celtics team does not rank as an all-time great.
19:08
Yeah, I, I, I think that's where, that's where this discussion about this Celtics team does become tough, because I don't think there's a lot of people that would say
19:18
they, that they feel like they belong with a lot of these other teams that we're talking about. They- And I agree... here's the, they benefited from a royal flush of injuries on the other side in the Eastern Conference.
19:28
The Bulls, as great as they were, benefited from expansion. You can't say any of that about those Warriors teams. I'm just saying, they're the g- the, to me, they're, uh, they're top of the heap.
19:38
The playoffs was one thing, though. There was nothing e- there was nothing easy about what they did in the regular season. No, 100%. Yeah. And they're not to blame for who they play. Right. Right? Yeah.
19:44
So you gotta give them that. Uh, all right, NBA Finals MVP. I wanna, I just wanna bring this up. What kind of favorite is Jaylen Brown right now in this market, Kelly? Like, he is minus 280. Jaylen Brown minus 280.
19:57
Jayson Tatum is plus 250. Everybody else, starting with Lucas, 22 to 1. Even, even, uh, Jrue, Jrue Holiday, who had that, uh, great game too, he's 75 to 1, by the way.
20:05
Thank you, Nevada Gaming, for not putting up that market. [laughs] Um, I just wanna make the point that while I think Jaylen Brown
20:13
could be favorite here, and probably is a justified small favorite, I think minus 280 is outrageous, and I think Jayson Tatum at plus 250 might actually be live.
20:23
Let me just throw up the numbers from games one, two, and three, and then the collective shooting percentages of this.
20:30
So game one, uh, Jaylen Brown, I'll read it from the, uh, the old computer here because we get it ready here. J- game one, Brown, 22-6 and, uh, 22-6 and two, I believe he was. I'll check on that assist.
20:45
Uh, three and, uh, three blocks, three steals. Great game for Jaylen Brown in, in game one of this series where the Celtics blew out the Mavs. 22-6-2 with three blocks, three steals.
20:54
Tatum was 16-11 and five in that game with six turnovers. Advantage Brown. Okay? Uh, game two, Jaylen Brown, 21-4 and seven. We're talking points, rebounds, and assists, but he had six turnovers along with three steals.
21:09
Tatum in that game, 18-9 and 12, was a board away from a triple double. I'm gonna say advantage Tatum. Six turnovers, Tatum one, six turnovers for Brown, one rebound shy of a triple double.
21:23
Game three, Brown, 38 and eight, Tatum 31, six, and five. Triple double stats. All right, so Brown was two boards and two assists shy of messing around to get a triple double. Now, that's kind of a wash in that one.
21:40
Here's the differentiator, is Brown's efficiency shooting for the collective three games. Brown is 27 of 49, 35.53%. Tatum is a much more woeful 23 of 64, 26.44% for all three games.
21:59
If people were voting NBA MV- NBA Finals MVP on shooting percentage and efficiency, Brown is definitely minus 280. But Kelly, I don't think they're v- I don't think they're voting on that.
22:10
I think they're voting on the more simple stats, and if they're voting on the more simple stats, Brown shouldn't be anywhere close to minus 280, in my opinion. You? Um, he should definitely be the favorite.
22:23
Should he be favored that much? Yeah, I think you could argue that. He- You think he, you think he could be favored that much? Yeah, uh, uh, no, no, I think you could argue that he shouldn't be favored this much.
22:31
He should definitely be the favorite, though. I think he, he most likely- I agree, a slight, I agree a slight favorite, ba- I would make him a slight favorite based on the shooting efficiency. But minus 280?
22:40
Tatum at plus 250. I don't know. I think that might be live. Coming back with Chris Velika on soccer next.
22:45
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23:03
Gil Alexander, Kelly Tilghman.
23:04
We'll get to the, uh, NBA Finals, uh, once again a little later on, because, uh, there's some other prop markets that we wanna update, and you got, you have bets going on them as well, right?
23:14
Yeah, I got a, I got a, yeah, I got a pretty big sweat on Tatum to lead the series in rebounds. Yeah, we'll update all that coming up, uh, on the show as well. Uh, update at the US Open, round two, Pinehurst.
23:26
Um- Update me, Gil. I'm in straight easel mode over here. [laughs] Computer's dead. Patrick Cantlay, still your leader, hasn't teed off yet today after his, uh, 5 under 65 yesterday.
23:35
So he's got the one stroke lead over Ober, uh, Ludvig Ober, who has not teed off yet either, who shot the 4 under 66 yesterday. Rory has since birdied since the last time we brought this up.
23:46
So remember, he had given two shots back. Well, he has made up one of them, so he is one shot back for the tournament at 4 under as well. The big mover of the day at this moment is Xander Schauffele. The X-Man.
24:00
Xander Schauffele, 3 under for the day, 3 under for the tournament.
24:03
He is two strokes back, along with Bryson DeChambeau, who since we last updated this, bogeyed and birdied, so he's back to 3 under, two strokes back of the lead as well. So those are the big names.
24:13
As far as Scottie Scheffler, Scheffler remains at 3 over for the tournament He is struggling I think we just want him to get in the clubhouse at this point Yes, we do.
24:22
Uh, he's three o- he's two over for the day, three over for the tournament, through 13 holes of golf today for Scottie Scheffler, the world number one. Yeah, just get in the clubhouse.
24:31
I think we'll be okay at that number. I, I think this is, th- this afternoon might be brutal out there. Projected cut is right at three over. Yeah. So he is inside the cut line currently.
24:43
I just, I don't think there is any way the cut line moves closer to even par. I think if anything, it goes longer, uh, this afternoon, so- I would agree... I think we get, if he gets into three over- I would agree...
24:52
I think we're safe. As long as he doesn't, uh, deteriorate. Yes. I would agree. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California. You can follow him on Twitter @spreadapedi.
25:02
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. That's the Progressive Guest Line. It's Jason Weingarten. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going?
25:10
Uh, Taylor Pendrith actually has the low round of the day now. Just, uh, breaking news for you. Oh, that's right. He just went four under. Yes, just went four under. Yeah, just went four under.
25:19
Um, and he is three under for the tournament, four under for the day, as Jason said. So he is two back as well, the Canadian, uh, with currently the low round.
25:29
Although Xander will have something to say about this in his final five holes as well. But those are the, uh, those are the low scores. You have any bets on, on the US Open, Jason? Uh, minimal stuff.
25:40
You know, a little live top 10, top 20. Uh, nothing, nothing I'm pretty, pretty excited about yet. Uh, I did go to the US Open last year.
25:49
I just gotta tell you, um, the, the merchandise tent at the US Open is such an exa- insane experience. You have to see it for yourself.
25:58
Like, they do more sales per minute, per square foot, than I think any, you know, Super Bowl or World Series. It's, it's just the craziest thing I've ever seen.
26:07
Not quite as, not quite as, uh, active as the Masters thing, but that's a, that's a whole different category. That's what I was just gonna bring it up. Matt was talking about the Masters and- I, I've never been. Yeah.
26:17
Yeah, I, I've, I, I've never been lucky enough to, to go, so I couldn't, couldn't compare it. But I mean, the, the amount of just people buying stuff was... I was amazed.
26:25
And then I bought like 500 bucks worth of stuff too. [laughs] Well, that's the thing. I, so I went to the- Perfect. [laughs] I went to... I, and I'm like you, I've never been fortunate enough to go to the Masters either.
26:32
But I went to the US Open when it was in the Bay, when it was at the Olympic Club, which I want to say was 2012. Don't hold me to that year. But it was, uh, in San Francisco, and I reme- I had the same experience.
26:43
I remember going into that tent and, and there were so many people buying stuff, and it was so outrageously expensive. And that demographic, price is no object. They're just, like, buying everything in sight.
26:56
It's amazing. Yeah, but it's, it is... Like, I get it. It's a once in a lifetime thing, right? Once in a, yeah, that's right. Like, you have no problem paying three times what you would normally pay for a polo shirt.
27:05
Yep. That's, that's right. I, I, I got one of those polo shirts you speak of. [laughs] Yeah. All right, uh, Jason, among the many things...
27:11
Well, first of all, you have a, on the ladies' side, you do have a bet that you'd like to share with folks? I mean, I have Grace Kim. She's tied for the lead.
27:18
You can get her, like, 20 to 1 still right now, but I don't, I don't know if she's gonna win. There's, you know, five, five ladies, six ladies one shot off the lead right now, so- But tied for the lead-... still early...
27:28
tied for the lead at 20 to 1 currently. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's bad. It's something to look forward to this weekend. Grace Kim on the LPGA side. Okay. Uh, we talk about many things with you.
27:39
Uh, but probably first and foremost, we talk about Major League Baseball, and specifically Major League Baseball's futures market. You, uh, you had an observation on them this year.
27:50
Or where a blink of an eye we're back to Aaron Judge being a 125 favorite and Juan Soto being five-and-a-half to one. Like, I, I don't know.
27:58
I still think Juan Soto is the MVP of the Yankees, but I totally understand that Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge and, you know, I'm totally wrong about his foot injury too.
28:07
Um, he, he might run away with this again, but I, I can't, I can't keep wrapping my head around this idea that Juan Soto isn't the, the, the guy that changed the Yankees this year, not Aaron Judge.
28:18
And that is, and that's so true, and that gets back to the age-old discussion that we always have across sports, which is, you know, handicapping the voters and what will matter to them.
28:28
I mean, and I guess from a baseball standpoint,
28:32
you know, we talked about this, I guess the first time this came up, it was, like, in the early part of the last decade, where Felix Hernandez won a Cy Young by winning 12 games.
28:41
That was, like, a, a shift where voters finally got that wins and losses didn't matter as much as other things.
28:47
Um, with this though, with MVP, is it as simple as these guys are just gonna be intoxicated by who hits the most home runs? Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs is Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs.
29:01
It's sort of similar to the, the American League Rookie of the Year with, with Luis, is it Hill? We're calling him Luis Hill. Luis Hill, yes. Um, he's minus 185 for Rookie of the Year. I think that's insane.
29:13
He's 27 years old. We're what? Just over a third of the way through the season. Um, I, I just don't understand how you could possibly get minus 185 from a guy whose projected ERA is, like, 3.7 for the rest of the season.
29:28
Um, he's, he's projected for 170 strikeouts. I mean, those numbers are good, but they're, they're not gonna win you a Rookie of the Year. I mean, like, I keep just trying to beat this home.
29:37
Spencer Strider had, like, a 13.9 K to nine and a 1.83 FIP, and didn't, didn't win. Like, Luis Gil is not winning, uh, Rookie of the Year. Playing 185 is insane. I think this is a wide open market.
29:52
Um, plenty of opportunity here. Yeah. Poor n- every time you bring up the Spencer Strider stats from last year, I just, uh, a little tear drops down my cheek.
29:59
Um, back, back to the Judge thing, 'cause you made it easy by saying if Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs is Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs, and I agree with you. If he hits 60, it's probably not even a conversation.
30:09
But what if he hits, you know, a much more tame 56, let's say? Like, does it become that, you know, that much of a done deal at that point? Probably.
30:19
I mean, if the, the Yankees in first place, I, I don't see how it, uh, don't see how it- So even if Juan, even if Juan Soto is just, like, filling up every other category, right? Uh, I, I mean, I think you...
30:30
I guess I'm, I'm talking it out, but I think you're right. That, I think that's the point. I think it's that simple.
30:36
And your best advice, and let me just give you a shout for this, is, 'cause I brought up Jose Ramirez about three, four weeks ago and said, "This dude is still 25 to one.
30:45
He was just absolutely the straw that stirred the drink," to use Reggie's, uh, phrase for the, for the Guardians. And you were right. You, you... It's just like, you know what? It doesn't matter.
30:54
It doesn't matter with a, if a Yankee, if someone in pinstripes is going to be the best player in baseball, and in their case, the best two maybe, it's just not gonna matter, and that's just how it works.
31:06
He's 27 to one now. Yeah. Well, we sh- we're showing 22 to one, but yeah, you're right, as long as 27 to one.
31:12
So, um, anyway, any other market like w- like a Luis Hill where you're like, "That guy should not be this short"?
31:19
Well, the thing with the American League Rookie of the Year is that you got, like, Mason Miller as the second favorite, and I don't think he's gonna win either.
31:25
Like, I think Luis Gil or Till and Mason Miller at, at these, these numbers, like, it's insane.
31:31
Like, I, I don't know if it's gonna be Jackson Holiday or Wyatt Langford, you know, or one of these guys even farther down, but it's gonna be somebody that's not a pitcher throwing 130 innings.
31:43
Yeah, or a, a closer for the Oakland A's. I just think that's crazy. Like, it could be Colton Cowser.
31:48
I don't know, he's still 17 to one, but, uh, this market needs a, a little more, uh, anal- analyzation from me going forward, 'cause I think there's plenty of, of money to be made down the board here. Yeah.
32:01
It seems to be a lot more reactive than it used to be, let's put it that way, on one night's results. By the way, I did jump in on the Braves to miss the playoffs.
32:10
I know we have it on a mythical bet here, but I, I did bet it myself, plus 750. Um, they still have a nice little edge in the loss column. Do you, you know, plus 750, would you have bet it?
32:22
Yeah, it's a good number still. Yeah. I mean, a lot of, lot of baseball left to be played, but, uh, can I just tell you the, the NL Rookie of the Year market? Please.
32:29
I still think the top of the board, the pitchers are backwards. Skeens is not gonna get close to enough innings to win this award. You just gotta throw him out now.
32:37
Yamamoto, plus 340, should, should be the favorite, not Imanaga. They're gonna flip. Farther down, Jackson Merrill, 30 to one. Uh, Andy Pa has 75 to one, I think is his number, b- blown back out.
32:50
Um, he hit a home run last night. He's still playing pretty well. I mean, look at his numbers over the last month. Um, Merrill, future superstar, I think. Um, he's playing pretty well.
32:59
Had a walk-off home run this weekend. If a pitcher's not gonna win, um, Merrill, Pa has... Those are guys I'd look at at the numbers right now. 10 seconds. Anything you bet today? Uh, no, not much, actually.
33:12
I've been, uh, getting ready to watch the US Open, see if I can- Okay... jump into some stuff there. Fair enough, as they say. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it, man. Pleasure. Talk to you guys later.
33:21
Jason Weingartner, uh, Weingarten, pardon me, @spreadapedia. Uh, we'll talk NBA on the other side, Kelly and I. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:30
[upbeat music] Scheffler, who just, uh, hit it out of the dirt and it rolled right back to him. Yeah. Wonderful.
33:43
We're this close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:51
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSIN. That's code V-S-I-N for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Be smiling there.
34:02
Two best players in PGA Tour really struggling to get out of this, uh, this little waste area. Schauffele just did the same dang thing. Did he really? Yep. Oh, man.
34:09
Actually, he got, he, he at least got his on the green, and then it rolled back down. We get tweets, we get texts. Chris Felica the Bear, who was just on the show, uh, he texts.
34:17
He goes, uh, he says, "Yes, your memory is correct. It was Olympic Club, Olympic Club was 2012, and no, you will never be allowed on the grounds of Augusta National."
34:26
[laughs] He adds, "Activate the trap door at the entrance gate on Washington Street, please, if you would." If I ever showed up there. It's the Hootie bit. Never gets old. Uh, we get tweets also.
34:39
This is from, uh, Phil Weiss. Phil Weiss, who finds himself always disagreeing with Jason Weingarten. He says, "Will wonders never cease? In principle, I agree with that genius Jason on the Soto judge thing.
34:52
I gotta stop listening." 'Cause he thinks he's becoming now agreeable with Jason Weingarten, so it's bothering him. Ah. Phil's, Phil's very... He's never- Gotcha. Yeah.
35:00
Steven Ve- Phil was the guy who said the Warriors were l- were the least beautiful thing in basketball, so you have to understand. That will always be his one shining moment, when he had that tweet.
35:10
Steven Vegas, "I noticed you didn't mention WNBA star among the many job duties. Uh, has anyone," for Stormy, "Has anyone ever seen Stormy and Cameron Brink at the same time in the same place?"
35:22
I don't know if Stormy likes that comparison or not, but they are- I never really thought about that. Yeah... they do, they do favor each other. Yeah, a little bit. Little bit. Yeah.
35:29
Uh, NBA, game four tonight, NBA finals. We talked about this to start the show. We put the Celtics in historical context. Um, and I mentioned, I know we're a betting network, it's a betting show.
35:40
If there was ever a time where, if you said to me, "All right, what's the one time of the year in any sport where you would actually probably recommend not betting something?"
35:48
It's probably game four of an NBA finals where one team is up three to nothing, and it's just so difficult to gauge motivation and the head space of a team like the Dallas Mavericks. Are they gonna fight on tonight, um,
36:02
and really put out a great performance? How are the officials going to react to Luka's whining? Pardon me. Is, are they gonna be more sympathetic to his complaints? Are they gonna be less sympathetic to his complaints?
36:15
Uh, or the Mavericks just lay down. Uh, so all those things in the mix, it's just At, you know, it's essentially where the Mavericks are a one-point favorite now. The total's 211 and a half.
36:24
You know, look, if you bet it and win, good for you. It's just not one of those that I would recommend necessarily.
36:29
I made the case earlier for NBA Finals MVP that while I think Jaylen Brown ought to be a slight favorite, I don't think he should be nearly minus 280, and I think Jason Tatum is probably mispriced at plus 250.
36:40
Going back to our voter conversation that we just had with Jason on a baseball sta- from a baseball standpoint, but also from a basketball standpoint, what will NBA Finals MVP voters be wowed by?
36:52
And we went through the stats, games one, two, and three. Um, it's kind of a wash with the exception of shooting percentage, shooting efficiency, where Jaylen Brown is far better than Jayson Tatum.
37:03
I just don't think voters care about that kind of stuff in the same way that we might.
37:08
So for me, while Jaylen Brown might be a slight favorite, I don't think he should be minus 280, and I think Jayson Tatum might actually represent value.
37:14
You have some bets in some other prop markets that are still alive here, Kelly. Yes?
37:18
Yeah, I was gonna update kind of where series stat stuff is at, uh, for anybody who bet on those, although it looks like DraftKings might have pulled those markets. They were up this morning.
37:28
Or maybe I'm just not finding the right thing. Anyways, uh, we're just gonna update those. I do have a bet on Jayson Tatum to lead the series in rebounds. He is a one...
37:36
Well, he is one whole rebound behind, uh, Luka Dončić, so I will be sweating that out tonight.
37:42
And then this one was in- All those, all those big guys on the court for both those teams, those are the guys leading in rebounds. Yeah, I mean, just the, it's so many minutes, and think of- Yeah...
37:48
think about the big guys, right? The big guys are always in a rotation, right? That's right. It's Lively or Gafford on/off the court. Porziņģis obviously wasn't, he, he got hurt.
37:56
Um, and Horford's gonna be, you know, at least kind of limited, uh, in minutes.
38:01
Um, so the, uh, so that race, yeah, it was, it was Tatu- it was Luka favored Tatum, uh, or Tatum favored and then Luka right behind him, um, when that opened up.
38:12
I liked Luka there, so I will, I will be sweating that out today. That is actually my biggest bet of the series, um, that's on the series at least. Uh, the assist one is interesting.
38:21
I caught the s- I caught the odds earlier at DraftKings at least where Tatum was a dog to, to Luka. I think it was plus 105 on Tatum, and Tatum has a four-assist lead over Luka Dončić going into this game tonight.
38:35
So that's gonna be, man, if anybody's got assists, that could be a sweat.
38:40
Uh, that could be a sweat for you tonight, although I don't know that I'd hate betting Jayson Tatum at plus money with a four-assist lead right now over Luka Dončić. Because Tatum had 5, 12, and 5. Yeah.
38:50
I mean, the twel- obviously 12's an outlier, but I, it's not crazy. To ask him to get five, six assists is not asking that much- Nope... out of Jayson Tatum. Nope.
38:58
So then you're talking you need Luka to hit double digits. I don't know, I'd probably bet that. Where does your, uh, Jayson Tatum to lead series in three points made stand, nine to one? Uh, he is not- Not close...
39:11
going to hit that, I believe. Not, not close. Um, and then yeah, at the bottom you have Jaylen Brown to have more rebounds than Daniel Gafford. That one is, let's see. I've got a three-rebound lead. All right.
39:25
I've got a three-rebound lead. Gotta ti- tip of the cap to, uh, JVT for that one. I don't know what to tell you. And that's also just playing time, right? That's just being on the court.
39:32
Yeah, it, that's, I mean, that was the whole handicap. Yeah. It was that Jaylen Brown's gonna be playing 40-plus minutes in every one of these games.
39:38
Um, yeah, and Daniel Gafford is at, at best gonna be splitting time with Derrick Lively. And then, um, man, I've been wrong on him every step of the way so far. Well, so, so I wanna ask you, right?
39:47
[laughs] 'Cause Lively showed up last game. You, you, you've been sitting, you know, we sit next to each other here five days a week. Mm-hmm.
39:52
And you're the one guy I haven't asked this of, and you're probably the first guy I should ask this of 'cause I've asked it of JVT, I asked it of Drew.
39:57
I've asked it a bunch of NBA folks who've come on, which is, and I start by saying I'm looking at myself and saying it is the p- it is the postseason as a whole, we already established, again, losing teams in best of sevens here this year in the NBA playoffs have averaged 1.2 wins.
40:13
Like it has been, between the NHL and the NBA, it's been, from a non-betting standpoint, the least competitive playoffs we've ever seen.
40:21
And in the NBA, it's like in spades, especially the conference finals and the finals. But I just think from a handicapping standpoint, listen, I thought Denver was gonna win it all.
40:29
They're up 20 in the third quarter against the T-Wolves. They lose. I literally had to text Will Hill and Fleeka the other day. I was like, "That did happen, right?" This was just yesterday. I was like, that...
40:38
Or the day before. I was like, "That did happen. Now correct me if I'm wrong." It's, it's still surreal to me that it happened. Yeah. So I thought Denver was gonna win it all.
40:45
Then I thought, you know, what was my next thought? That the T-Wolves-Nuggets series was the NBA Finals, de facto NBA Finals.
40:51
That clearly wasn't the case 'cause the Mavericks wiped them off the court, and now the Mavericks are getting destroyed by Boston.
40:56
We had that segment a few weeks back, and I just retweeted it this morning, which was kind of my... You ever see that movie, Gwyneth Paltrow, it was in Sliding Doors? You ever see that movie?
41:05
No, but I know what you're talking about, yeah. The conceit of the movie is, the conceit of the movie is that our entire lives unwittingly, unknowingly change on the most random brief choices or timing of things, right?
41:21
If she enters the subway 10 seconds before she does, she runs into a person that she ends up marrying, that kind of thing, right? Yeah, right.
41:29
So for me, this was kind of the sliding doors of the NBA playoffs, where it just felt like if Denver doesn't gack a 20-point lead, right, Friday night, the last Friday night of the NBA regular season to the Spurs when Wembanyama went off and they end up as the number one seed.
41:45
That means they would end up getting Dallas probably in round two. Does that matchup go completely differently?
41:51
And so the NBA world, these playoffs end up so much differently based on some random thing that happened on that Friday night to end the regular season. The other thing was Cleveland purposely tanking- Yeah...
42:06
to play Orlando in the first round. What did that do? That means that instead of them playing it kosher, right, Philly doesn't end up playing Boston in round two based on those seedings.
42:19
Who knows if Embiid doesn't get hurt? Who knows if Philly somehow takes out Boston?
42:23
So it's like the sliding doors of the NBA playoffs, and my question to you finally is, sorry for the run-up- No, no, it is like- Is this the least...
42:30
Is, is this the postseason of any sport where you've had the least grasp of? I would say after those, it's a- after the, the first two rounds, yes. 'Cause I think it's very, very much...
42:43
I mean, the Eastern Conference was the Eastern Conference. Like I don't, I don't know if there's too much to seize on there.
42:47
It was so, it was so defined by injuries throughout that it, it, it was, it was, I mean, really not, not all that interesting, not all that exciting, and really not all that close in the end, in the end.
42:58
Now how much does, and y- and, and I know you hit on this, uh, you know, a lot during, uh, on the show maybe the next day I think it was, but, you know, Minnesota-Denver, right?
43:06
Minnesota basically designed to build, uh, to beat Denver, beats Denver. We all get hyped up on what Minnesota can be, not designed to beat some other teams out there. It's so true.
43:18
And I mean, I, it's just, it's weird looking back now, like, you know, where you're, like Dallas dismantled that team, and like I, I still don't know that I fully understand it.
43:28
And then, like, and then what are we looking at in this NBA Finals? Like Boston sweeps Indiana, yet Indiana has, the Pacers are going to have given the NBA champions the biggest challenge they had, and they got swept.
43:42
So- And Haliburton got hurt. And Haliburton got hurt. [laughs] But, but that was, and that was my comment the next day was, is, has the NBA become so hyper matchup driven- Yes...
43:52
that that is the number one handicap of anything? Like we can talk ourselves into other things, but ultimately it's like styles make fights and, and that, it was an adage for boxing. Mm-hmm.
44:03
It has never been more true for the NBA. Yep. Here we are, Boston Celtics on the cusp of yet another championship in their glorified or their storied history. We've done all we can do.
44:14
Gojo and Golick are next on the radio side. And Joy from Visa, the sports betting network.
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