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Jun 17, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 17, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 17, 2024
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45:41
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Gay Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from the Shield.
0:22
That's the shape of the desk here at the D. Bar Canada. Bar Canada, the barrage here at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Uh, it's all presented to you by ZYN Nicotine Pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch.
0:31
Find out more at zyn.com. Kelly, how you doing, man? You good? I'm doing great. How about you? Uh, I'm great. We gotta talk US Open, uh, off the top here. So good, gosh. So good.
0:42
Just gotta let everybody know though, Jake Hahn, as the Stanley Cup final continues. Hey. Edmonton's 8-1 win in game four content, as someone screamed out on Twitter.
0:53
That's right, Oilers Mavericks, for us in the content business, way to go, boys. [laughs] Content Kiniella, we appreciate it. Uh, we will talk NBA obviously as well.
1:02
Game five at two tonight back in Boston at the TD Garden. I think you take the red line to Park and then you transfer. Um, we also have a live release on the game today.
1:13
Carl Sack, uh, my buddy, uh, he and I used to work with Dr. Bob back in the day. I used to do baseball, Carl used to do basketball. Carl Sack, best NBA handicapper I have ever met in my life. I'm pumped.
1:27
Uh, he has a live release on the show today. So we have two guests that we've had historically on a Numbers Game where the line moves globally when they release it.
1:34
RAS Sports, uh, Right Angle Sports, Ed Golden's operation. We'll have Michael Craig on here during college football, college basketball, but especially during college football season.
1:42
Once they release it, well, college basketball too, once they release it, you see the global lines move like a Christmas tree. With Carl, here's what I'm gonna say. He's gonna release it.
1:51
We'll do a segment with him, so we'll talk about the game before we do, do the release. We'll, we'll do the release right before the commercial. By the time we get back to the next segment, I think it will have moved.
2:00
That's my guess. Okay. I like it. That's the kind of influence that dude has. I like it.
2:04
I'm, I'm pumped, pumped, uh, that I get to be a part of a show that he's on, 'cause I don't think I've been a part of one- Oh, really?... where he's been on. Yeah. Oh, okay.
2:10
So pumped to hear from him, and I think the [laughs] I think the numbers for the game are very interesting tonight, so- Yeah... I'm wondering where he's going with it. Well, we'll get your thoughts as well. Yeah.
2:19
Is there a, did your, a little bit of a glimmer of hope seep into you for your Mavericks futures ticket? 0 and 156 lifetime. No, no, ask me, ask me tomorrow. Ask me tomorrow.
2:28
Okay, I'll ask you tomorrow when the series is over. Ask me- Hey, Kelly, do you think you have a shot? Ask me- I do not...
2:34
ask me tomorrow when I'm hopefully scrambling to change my flights on Thursday and Friday, because I, currently my flights right- or Thursday and Sunday.
2:41
Currently my flights right now for w- me going on vacation are booked right during game six and game seven. Oh, so you would sh- you would shift those flights is what you're saying? Although I'm on Delta for game six.
2:51
Like, I think they've got live TV. [laughs] Do you have a connection in Atlanta? No. No. No, I'm just going down to Austin, so it's, you know, it's a quick- Oh... two and a half hours, you know? Oh, that's right, Austin.
3:00
Falica used to say the three scariest words in travel, Delta, uh, what is it? Uh, Delta, transfer, Atlanta. [laughs] Yeah, seriously. That was the worst.
3:08
[laughs] Although, I don't know, maybe just for like, y- you know, you hear all those horror stories of just people on airplanes acting terribly. Oh yeah, of course.
3:15
Me with a few drinks in me watching the Mavericks- Oh, no... like in a game six, that might- You must be pure hell. Yeah, that might be bad. You're that guy. Might need to change flights.
3:24
Uh, Mike Somich we hope will be here also later with his thoughts on all his bets, including of course the Stanley Cup, uh, final, which continues. Stanley Cup continues tomorrow, correct? Correct.
3:33
For game number, uh, game number five. Game number... Back in Sunrise. Back in Sunrise. Sunrise, well, you're, you're a South Florida guy. Mm-hmm. Geographically, what are we talking about with Sunrise?
3:43
Like how far north of- Yeah, it's uh, it's-... Miami proper... it's very much, it- it's very much kind of like the hard rock of where they design all this stuff. Right.
3:51
They wanna mo- put it out west by the turnpike so it's easy for people to travel. Uh, so it's like what? Coral Springs. So think north of Fort Lauderdale, south of Boca Raton, out west. Oh, that's beautiful. Yeah.
4:03
So they, they wanna make it so everybody from Miami to the Palm Beaches can easily get to it. All right. US Open, y'all. This is, I mean [laughs] I say this about baseball, right?
4:12
When we were doing our Guardians bet March, April, and we lost in just catastrophic fashion at the end, an out away from hitting a 65 to one, but I did say this about baseball.
4:21
I said to you afterwards, "That whole bet was like a love letter to baseball." Like baseball still holds this amazing, dramatic place in our hearts as sports fans and as bettors as well.
4:30
Uh, the, the beats can be brutal, but the experience is, uh, unlike others. Whiskey and Revolver, Nick Bogdanovich said. Um, golf, wow, it does the same when it's at its best, and the US Open, of course.
4:44
Uh, traditionally, they make the course hard. Uh, six under ends up winning it for Bryson DeChambeau.
4:50
What a rollercoaster this final round, and specifically the final handful of holes was yesterday in Pinehurst, North Carolina at Pinehurst number two. Uh, Rory started the day three shots back of Bryson.
5:04
This ultimately became a two-man event. Uh, you had some hangers on, including Patrick Cantlay, but it really did come down to DeChambeau and McIlroy. If you had DeChambeau pre-flop, man, congratulations to you.
5:16
Um, about 28 to one in that pocket, 25 to one, somewhere in that range pre-flop. It depends where you got it. He, he was a popular bet last week. Yeah. So, you know, congrats for everybody that did hit him. He was...
5:26
I'm a little upset 'cause he was a guy I was really considering. Ended up getting in on him Friday, but it was not at, not for much.
5:32
Um, uh- Yeah, anywhere 20 to, 20 to 28 to 1, somewhere in that range Rory started the day three shots back. Uh, Rory ends up with a two-shot lead with five to play after Bryson bogeyed 12 and Rory birdied 13.
5:46
So at that point, Rory's eight under, Bryson is six under. Then Bryson birdies 13 to cut it to a one-shot lead. Um, and so it was not a done deal by any stretch once that happened. I got in...
5:59
Here's the thing, like the offshore pillar of Bookmaker, Bookmaker is a shell of what it used to be. Like- Hmm... they are, they wouldn't even put up at that point like a Bryson number.
6:07
I was able to get Rory no at plus 127 at that moment. It was still, the tournament was still a loss for me, but at least I got some back with that. Yeah. But it was like they were so reticent to put that up.
6:15
They had a Cantlay number, and they had a Rory number, but, but nothing on, uh, on Bryson. It's always annoying.
6:20
It's also one of those tournaments that I'm like, I'm not saying this is something you should do, but like, you know, looking back, right, it's like you could have cha- you could have- Oh... just traded plus prices.
6:28
Pluses. Yeah. Oh, if only we had that vision, right? Yeah. Uh, both par 14. Then Rory on 15. He's one stroke up. He bogeys it.
6:37
Um, Bryson returns the favor, though, on 15 with a three-putt bogey, uh, right to left lippage, if you will, right side of the hole.
6:46
Uh, and so Rory, um, at this point on 16 now, still with the one-stroke lead after that trade, he has a two-foot, six-inch, that's two-and-a-half foot putt. He was 496 of 496 inside three feet prior to this moment.
7:04
It made all of them. He lips it out. Oh, left side of the hole, and it curves over to the right.
7:12
And everyone, I don't think you could be watching this without letting out either an audible gasp or an oh my God or whatever, but that happened.
7:21
Yes, it happened, as Rory McIlroy desperately trying to win his fifth major, a full decade, uh, since he won the 2014 US Open. And all of a sudden now, we were tied. Uh, Rory on 18 then.
7:36
You know how this goes after he bogeyed 15 and he bogeyed 16. Uh, par on 17, but Rory on 18, this time at three feet, nine inches.
7:45
Remember, he's got that memory from just two holes ago of gacking of the two-and-a-half footer. This one lips out right side of the hole. It curves to the left. Um, and Bryson DeChambeau now
8:02
had the opportunity instead of having to birdie, what looked like he might have to birdie 18. Now he just had to par it. Yep. And that was huge for him, but he was in the native area. He was able to kick it out somehow.
8:14
It ended up in the bunker. Dri- driver kinda, he kinda lost the driver those last few holes. He lost the driver. It kind of looked like he was gonna give it to, to Rory. I'm, we're on air.
8:23
Me, Ben, Dustin on air for this, this, you know, this ending. The, I, Gil, that second shot, I'm like, "What's he gonna do?"
8:30
There's this massive, I mean, it already looked tough, but then he gets up there and you're seeing the, the, you know, the clo- uh, the close in shots of the root.
8:39
How many times have we seen in golf roots coming out of these trees where guys have had injuries or not be able to hit through, and he couldn't. He couldn't hit past it. Or it could have done anything, right?
8:50
Like, I mean, that's the thing. Well, he banked it off it. [laughs] So it ends up in the bunker 55 yards away. Um, 55 feet? 55 feet away, not yards. Yeah. 55 ya- the, the tweet got me wrong here. It says 55 yards.
9:03
55 feet away. Uh, and I text Felika and Will and I say, "Bunker shot of his life coming up. This is your moment." And sure enough, it was. Lu Stagg, our Golf Stat pro- 50 or 55 yards. 55 yards it was. Okay, 55 yards.
9:18
Bunker shot of his life. What loft on this shot? I mean, he just muscles it, and it lands three feet, 11 inches from the hole.
9:28
The chances of hitting it inside four feet according to Lu Stagg, or Golf Stat, or pro, uh, right around 1.7%. One of the greatest clutch shots of all time.
9:39
Andy North called it one of the top 10 shots in US Open history. And sure enough, from three feet, 11 inches away, Bryson DeChambeau sticks it in.
9:48
He wins his second major, his second US Open, and Rory McIlroy is halfway to Raleigh-Durham by the time the trophy presentation takes place.
9:58
This is Bryson on Rory right after the, uh, the tournament, his thoughts on his rival. Rory's one of the best to ever play, and being able to fight against a, a great like that is pretty special.
10:16
For him to miss that putt, I'd never wish it on anybody. Um, it just happened to play out that way, and he'll, he'll win, he'll win multiple more m- major championships, there's no doubt.
10:26
And I think that fire in him is, is gonna continue to grow. Um, and I have nothing but respect for how he plays the game of golf 'cause to be honest, when he was, [laughs]
10:38
wh- when he was climbing up the leaderboard and he was two ahead, I was like, "Uh-oh. Uh-oh." Um, but luckily, things went, went my way today.
10:48
Bryson is gracious, said all the right things, and there, by the way, is a shot of Rory, uh, going away in his, uh, tournament-sponsored vehicle. Outta here. Peeling out of the parking lot. Peeling out.
10:58
Um- He had to do the hard right too 'cause he almost hit the golf cart. He lipped out of the parking lot. Um- [laughs]
11:04
Listen, you know, Bryson said all the right things, and he said, you know, he'll win multiple majors, 'cause that's what you say, Kelly. That's what you say in those moments. There he is again.
11:12
Thanks for showing it again. I had to loop it a few times. Love the audio. The audio on that is great. Yeah, the audio's great. [laughs] Um, he said the right thing. He's gonna win multiple majors. I mean, but will he?
11:21
I mean, if you want something so bad and you squeeze it so tight, there, there's no other explanation, but that was a gack. That was mental. That was nerves. Yeah, I think- That was a choke.
11:32
I think we got a little bit more to talk about on the other side. Yeah. 'Cause it's two big stories here with Rory and then Bryson. And we'll look at the Open Championship odds as well.
11:39
Um, what a finish, and congratulations again to all who had Bryson pre-flop. More on the US Open, the NBA, of course. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network
11:57
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12:05
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12:12
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12:43
Sorry, I was talking to the crew. What happened? Oh, sorry. That is vsin.com/subscribe now, and use promo code ANG. It's Gil Alexander, that's Kelly Lidman.
12:52
Um, ESPN stats and information with these, uh, numbers on the US Open. Bryson becomes the first player in US Open history, uh, to win multiple titles with a winning score of six under or better.
13:03
Obviously, uh, won the US Open 2020, the year of the pandemic as well. Uh, Rory McIlroy, six straight top 10 finishes at the US Open, the most without a single win in the last 100 years.
13:19
Two- Is 100 years a long time, Gil? Curious. Two years of, uh, back to, uh, second place finishes. Back-to-back runner-up by a single stroke, uh, at the same major in the last 40 years.
13:29
It's Rory at this US Open and last year's US Open, and the only other time, Jim Furyk, back-to-back one stroke losses in the 2006 and 2007 US Opens. And then, uh,
13:41
aggregate score, final four holes over the last two rounds, Rory five over. Obviously, he was three over in the final four holes alone yesterday.
13:52
And again, as we mentioned, and Justin Ray points out, 496 for 496 putting inside three feet this season before his miss at 16, which was two and a half feet. It's just such a funny stat to me.
14:03
It's like the, uh, it's like how many times, uh, uh, in the past month have you gotten a glass of water, Gil, and like spilled a little bit of it out of the glass?
14:13
Like, it's [laughs] that's what like three-foot putts are. Yeah. These guys make every one of them. It's so bad.
14:17
Um, you know how we used to like kill Xander Schauffele because he was like, "Ah, yeah, sure, you flirt with it all the time," and then, you know, and then he finally wins a major, and so we can't say this anymore.
14:26
I mean, Rory's won four, but he won four in, during the Eisenhower administration at this point, right? Mm-hmm. It's been 10 years. I'm kidding about Eisenhower. Uh, 10 years since he's won a major.
14:35
This is, I mean, this is, he's had a lot of near misses. We just documented a couple. This is the, I mean, this was the one he should have had, and it didn't happen.
14:45
Are, are you at a point with him where you just can't trust it now? Um, man, that's a great question.
14:53
I don't know if I want to go that far because he's still, he's still a, I mean, he's a top three golfer on the PGA Tour.
14:59
I mean, the, all we've seen out of the majors this year is that top three get more solidified of who it is, and they are a, a class above, and Scheffler's probably a class above [laughs] where Schauffele and Rory are at, but then it's Schauffele, Rory, and then it's everybody else.
15:14
Um, but man, I mean, you gotta start... You, you, Xander getting over the hump is one thing. When you've, when you've won multiple majors like Rory has, but then it's this long period of time in between.
15:27
Gotta get in your head, man. It's gotta get in your head at some point. Yeah. Right? And I know we've had this discussion before. I, I'm, I've never been that big of a Rory fan.
15:34
I've never, never disliked the guy much either, and I've got a lot of respect for him for what he did trying to lead the way for the PGA Tour, even when the tour turned its back on him eventually, uh, during all this LIV stuff.
15:46
Yes. And so like that, I, I, I, you know, he gained my respect during that time period. But it is, man, some of these actions on course that he's had, it does irritate, it gets under my skin a little bit.
15:57
Sit there and answer questions for five minutes. Yeah. He's gonna want that back. Every, he's gonna want that back. Yeah. And I've seen him do this stuff before.
16:04
I was covering a Honda Classic where he, he was playing bad at PGA National and, and withdrew because of a toothache like in the second round, and it was like, "Dude, what are you doing? Come on, man."
16:13
Bryson, on the other hand, this is his performance at majors this year. T-6 at the Masters, second at the PGA, wins the US Open.
16:21
This is Bryson DeChambeau, whose complete sort of, you know, reputation has done a 180 here. It's incredible. Incredible. From Brooks Koepka's overt, bullying's not the right word, but just, just- Yeah.
16:34
[laughs] In the, in retrospect, Brooks is probably the ass, if I may use the word. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Um, but, uh, Bryson has completely shifted that, uh, perception of him. Some people are still detractors.
16:46
Here are the odds for the, uh, for the Open Championship, um, coming up here, one more major this year, and obviously, uh, Scottie Scheffler, the world number one is Scottie Scheffler.
16:57
Uh, those of us who had bets on him, that wasn't, uh, his tournament, that's for sure. Uh, so two- But still, still finishes at top six tee to green. [laughs] Just bottom, like, 10 in putting.
17:07
Scheffler five to one to win the Open Championship, which we used to call the British Open as children. Uh, Royal Mat- Rory is s- short, uh, second short shot, seven to one.
17:16
Bryson 12 to one, Xander 14 to one, so is Collin Morikawa, also 14 to one. Oberer, who was the two, uh, round leader, second round leader, 16 to one. Hovland 18 to one.
17:28
Everybody else, starting with Jon Rahm, at 20 to one, and that's exactly how you would probably imagine it to be. Um- Yeah... but that's the story for the Open Championship, um, the odds at DraftKings right now.
17:39
A little intrigued that we're, uh, we're, we're getting a little bit longer again. Like, well, S- Scheffler, Scheffler had one bad tournament, we go from three to one to five to one like that?
17:49
Well, it should never have been three to one. Uh, you, m- maybe, no, it, but- Yeah... you, you could make that argument for sure, but we're at five to one.
17:54
I'm just saying, that's, I mean, that's as long as we've actually seen him in a while, uh, teeing it up in a tournament. And, um, and Xander goes back to 14 to one with another top 10 finish. That's fine. That's fine.
18:05
Royal Troon, July 14th. I love th- this golf schedule where the PGA became the second, uh, major chronologically every year, how that packs it all together. So we'll have, we'll have another major here in short time.
18:16
Wimbledon and- Yeah, and then Olympics after that... the Open Championship. Like, some of the Olympic- Yeah... qualifying stuff through the US Open was cool, cool to watch. Remember I asked you, I asked you what the...
18:28
On Friday, I believe I asked you, I go, "Who's the current golfer that is the most like Andy North?" Hmm. Yeah. Andy North, I think, guy won three total majors, two of which were US Open.
18:39
And the reason for that question is because the US Open plays differently, right? Like, Andy North was not the kind of player, here comes a fly.
18:44
Re- uh, Andy North was not the kind of player that could go out and win a tournament where someone shot 20 under, right?
18:49
But a US Open where the pe- where the, you know, it was mental, mental strength, and the, the leaderboard was bunched up, he got two of them. And I asked you that question.
18:59
You said Brooks Koepka, which I thought was a good answer. Uh, there really is no q- equivalent. Yeah. It's so funny that Bryson DeChambeau becomes the guy who wins the second US Open. Those are his only two majors.
19:10
But he's so not like Andy North, right? Right. He could go out and win a tournament where someone shoots 20 under.
19:16
Um, does this version of Bryson, I know you said at me though, it's, it's one, two, Scheffler and Rory, but don't, don't you have to sort of elevate Bryson back into the conversation now? I said, I, I, I said PGA Tour.
19:28
[laughs] Won a 1-2-3 PGA Tour. Ah, yes you did. [laughs] That's true. You did.
19:32
I, I think it's still tough to figure out where exactly to slot some of these LIV guys, but I mean, what, just from what we've seen in the three majors this year, I, I, how can you...
19:41
I don't know how you could say anybody's better on LIV than Bryson DeChambeau is. When I, when I give you that odds board, what's your instinct right off the bat? Yeah. At Truen, at Royal Truen.
19:51
Scheffler and Schauffele are too long. Uh, [laughs] that's- Scheffler and Schauffele are too long... that, that's my, that's my first instinct. Okay. Yeah, and I honestly hadn't looked at them.
19:57
Um, Morikawa with another good result. Couldn't get top 10 home for me, but got top 20. I don't f- I mean, he's still on a heater.
20:04
He's someone I'll be looking at pretty much every single week at courses where I think his game fits.
20:09
Um, and I, I don't, I can't imagine, can't imagine backing off him or Schauffele anytime soon from a betting standpoint. You just gotta be, you know, I, you always betting outrights with those guys?
20:19
No, when s- there's some of these other guys at the top. Um, you know, it, we, s- we watch Bryson and Rory battling out for a major. Like, tho- those are two, uh, great golfers. So great. Yeah.
20:28
Such great television yesterday. Let's squeeze this in before the break 'cause we got guests coming up and we got a lot to get to.
20:33
Uh, MLB wins for the month of June updated for those who are, uh, either on my Astros bet or they are not. Uh, they have another team. We know, I know I, we have one listener who's on the Mariners.
20:45
It is the Seattle Mariners who right now, June 17th, are in first place. Obviously June 17th is not June 30th, Kelly, nor is it the morning of July 1st. Mariners are 11 and 4.
20:58
They are tied in terms of most wins with the Orioles, who are 11 and 5. So again, if this is at William Hill Caesars, that's a dead heat, that's a tie.
21:08
If this is at Circa, by tiebreaker the Mariners would take the money if that were to have ended today. Yankees and Diamondbacks are next. Uh, Yankees are 10 and 5, Diamondbacks are 10 and 5.
21:21
See the Red Sox had nine steals against the Yankees yesterday. That was wild. Yeah. [laughs] I was watching that last night.
21:25
The New York Metropolitans, who had the fewest games in the month of June scheduled, only 24, they're making the most of it. They're nine and four. Woo. The Reds are nine and five. They've lost a few here recently.
21:39
The Nats nine and six.
21:41
And then a group of eight win teams that if you do it, uh, by losses and run differential, uh, the Circa tiebreaking rules, it's Dodgers eight and six at plus 22, Red Sox eight and six after that win last night against the Yankees at plus 15, and our Astros, there they are, they're on the board, 10th place, eight and six at plus 13.
22:01
The Astros begin a series at the White Sox, three games set tomorrow. They gotta sweep it. Hmm. You gotta sweep it to, to move up on this leaderboard. Meanwhile, it's Ron Flatter. Meanwhile.
22:13
The Orioles and Yankees have a three-game set, so they're gonna beat up on each other, one would think. It'll go two to one we're guessing one way or the other. Um, so that'll be interesting as well.
22:23
So it's, the, the drama builds and obviously the Dodgers keep mounting injuries, but the Nats are the, uh, the Mets and the Nats are the teams you didn't expect in this group, at least at this point.
22:33
Astros still on the, teetering on, in on the conversation here. Yeah. Gotta sweep. Not out of it. Gotta sweep the Sox. Long way to go. Let's go Astros. You got this.
22:42
Nice, we're taking Abreu out of the lineup, thank goodness. Uh, we'll come back, College World Series update and the NBA game five next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:51
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
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23:22
Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Skill Alexander, Kelly Biblin live from Bar Canada here at the D Downtown Las Vegas. A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
23:34
Always appreciate the feedback. Best listeners in the game. Jesse Welch, two things. Uh, Xander top 10 was never sweat. Secondly, uh- [laughs] You should have seen me for four hours on the, on this, uh, desk yesterday.
23:47
Secondly, shout out to your guest last week about the ties pay in full market when it comes to the elite golfers. Xander was an example of that this week. That is one example.
23:56
Uh, he's referring to Byron Lindiqu, who we had on South African, uh, who we had on the show last week, and his point was, and I'll interpret Jesse's tweet here, that for his analysis of, of those markets, talking about do you bet top fives, top 10s at shops like MGM that pay in full, or do you bet at dead heat shops?
24:17
Uh, his analysis was that on the elite golfer side, like a Xander Schauffele
24:22
You're better off actually taking the better odds of a dead heat shot because, by his analysis, they ended up in those situations far less than otherwise. Yep. Yeah. So yeah, b- I mean, he narrowly avoided it.
24:35
You, uh, I think- Meaning, meaning they were inside- Correct... the dead heat. Yeah, well inside- Yes... of being dead heat. Yeah. Yeah.
24:41
Uh, um, I would, I would, a- I would encourage everybody to listen to his podcast he did with Pat Mayo on that, but that is, um...
24:48
I think m- more for me, I tar- I would be more interested in targeting those in top 20, top 40 situations. Give yourself a little bit more breathing room- Correct... uh, on those.
24:56
I mean, [laughs] Sanders, a good example yesterday. That is a one-shot difference between you cashing that and you getting dead heated.
25:03
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, if I come to you from the future with tomorrow's headlines, they will read Luka has been hired as a spokesperson for Total Wine & More." See, put the H in there. Get it? Yeah. Wine.
25:13
See what I did there? Duh-duh-duh. Matthew Mayberry, "Not complaining about hitting outright on Bryson 22 to, uh, 21 to one. My sixth of the season, uh, as far as outrights."
25:23
Good for you, "But I did throw about 20% of my winnings back because I had to hedge on, uh, Rory late." I don't, there's nothing wrong with that. Nothing wrong with that at all. Understandable.
25:30
Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1, "I'm sorry. Am I crazy, but I'm the only o- am I the only one who thinks Bryson sounds exactly like [laughs] Matt Lindaman but just not as smart?" [laughs] I had never made that connection.
25:41
Uh, R Johnson, this is in caps, "Gil, he did not check his swing. Yesterday's win just made me feel worse." What he is referring to, and we will, uh, I guess we can update that here, uh, College World Series.
25:53
He's re- he's referring to our Florida State Seminoles, not just your Florida State Seminoles- Right... Kelly, in this case, our, uh, my 35 to one ticket on Florida State to win the College World Series.
26:03
Florida State, for those who missed it, and the College World Series has lived up to the billing. It always does. They were up on Tennessee comfortably.
26:14
Uh, it felt like, not so much with that Florida State bullpen, and Tennessee's bats just got to it. But to, uh, what R Johnson's talking about, there was a third strike that looked like it was a third strike.
26:26
That was a third strike. What I, what I've said on this show, we've been on this show for seven and a half years, I've watched 10 bajillion baseball games in my life.
26:35
Kelly, to this moment, I still can't tell you what a check swing is and what a strike is because it's always different, right?
26:43
And so they, they called it a, uh, they called it a ball, um, that the, th- the hitter did not go around.
26:49
Tennessee ends up winning 12-11, and what that creates for FSU is a situation where you have to win four games in a row. They won the first, uh, FSU did, by beating Virginia yesterday handily, seven to three.
27:02
Again, a little bullpen, uh, problem, though, at the end. Uh, so now, uh, Florida State will play tomorrow in another elimination game against North Carolina.
27:09
If they win that, winner of that will have to beat Tennessee twice, in other words. The number one seed of this tournament.
27:14
Tennessee trying to be the first overall number one to advance to the finals of the College World Series, the best of three, since Texas did in the year 2010.
27:23
Doesn't usually happen, so Tennessee trying to buck that trend. Uh, today, uh, Kentucky and Texas A&M are gonna play a game. That is not the elimination game. The elimination game is NC State and Florida.
27:35
Loser of that is bounced just like Virginia was yesterday. We doing Jake here? We're doing Jake here. Let's talk some hockey. Uh, and of course, a golf reaction from our buddy Jake Hohn.
27:44
You can follow him on Twitter @JHohn4. That's J-H-A-H-N and the number four on Twitter.
27:51
And of course, Jake is always, uh, kind enough to join us courtesy of the Progressive cl- uh, Progressive Guest Line, co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. Did you have Bryson?
28:00
Let's start there. I sure did, Gil, which, which is great. I'm, I've cooled down off the Bryson sweat, uh, from yesterday, which was certainly a sweat, to say the least, right? You give up a, a three-shot lead.
28:10
It turns into a two-shot deficit, and then you get it even, and it was so back and forth those last few holes. And, you know, the, the, the bettor in me obviously was cheering for Bryson and wants the ticket to cash.
28:20
The golf fan in me did feel a little bad to see Rory miss, what, a four-footer and a three-footer, uh, you know, to not even get into a playoff. So I was kinda half still rooting for the playoff just for the drama.
28:30
I think it would've been a lot of fun to watch those two, uh, go toe-to-toe. But what a finish, and, uh, I, Pine, Pinehurst delivered this year, guys. That was a great US Open.
28:38
Did, you had Bryson pre-flop on this, on this tournament? What'd you have? What was your number? Yeah. I, I believe I came on with you guys, uh, on Thursday. Yeah.
28:45
And I hadn't bet him yet 'cause he was in the afternoon tee time, so I, I only grabbed the early guys, uh, Morikawa and Brooks.
28:51
Uh, and I mentioned he was the guy in the afternoon that I did like, so didn't get as good of a, a, a number as the pre-flop. I think he was going off around 25 I saw in some places.
29:00
I was able to still find a 20, so not, not too far off- Nice... uh, the pre-flop number for, uh, for Bryson.
29:05
Uh, I don't know about you, Kelly, but if I got a 20 to one, I'm rooting for no damn playoff there, that's for sure. [laughs] No, I want no part of that. Uh, okay. Uh, let's go back to game four.
29:14
Congratulations, by the way, to you, uh, on that. That's a nice hit. Um, all right, Stanley Cup Final. Edmonton does what they have to do. They're down three to nothing. They win eight to one.
29:25
Uh, much like with the Mavericks and Celtics in game four, very similar in terms of just the team with, uh, the proverbial back against the wall, must win. Got it done, got it won in a big way.
29:35
But of course, reaction, and justifiably so to both of those wins, and we'll get to the NBA later, but in terms of hockey is, okay, well, that was great. Um, is that a one-off, or is that a portent of things to come?
29:47
And where do you stand headed into game number five back in Florida? Yeah, I think, like you just put it, uh, there, Gil, so many similarities between both series right now.
29:55
You've get, you get the, the team that was favored to win. Now, Boston, you know, a bit of a bigger favorite than Florida was, uh, in their respective series, but they both get up three-nothing.
30:03
They both look like the dominant teams, and they're just gonna cruise to their respective championships.
30:07
Then you get the team down three-oh, not only winning to stay alive, but absolutely blowing the other team out of the water. The Mavericks do it on Friday night, and I did not see eight-one coming.
30:16
I, I certainly could have seen a, an Oilers win Saturday night, home ice, give the fans something to cheer about, but I didn't see eight-one coming. I, I think- If anything, that does give the Oilers a lot of confidence.
30:26
Not only did you win the game, but you won it convincingly, you figured out Bobrovsky to an extent, you chased him, you scored five goals against him, and we know how great he's been, uh, the last couple of years.
30:35
So, does that mean they're gonna win three more times and win this series? I, I'd say it's unlikely, but Tuesday night's game is a massive swing game here, guys.
30:43
If they can win one on the road, all of a sudden you drag Florida back to Edmonton again, another long flight, and you start to ask those questions and that doubt can creep in.
30:51
So, huge game on Tuesday, obviously, for both teams. Oilers still facing elimination. Uh, and I think for the Panthers, this is when you gotta close it out. You got them on home ice. Okay, they had their win.
31:01
You cannot let the series go back to Edmonton or else this thing could get real interesting. Yeah, okay, so I'm gonna list a bunch of bets here, and you tell me what your favorite one is.
31:09
So game five, specifically, tomorrow night, Panthers are -135, Oilers are +115, or +114 as we're showing on the board, on the comeback. That's at DraftKings. Okay, that's the game five number.
31:19
Edmonton to win the series, now down three to one, seven to one at DraftKings. Conn Smythe, Sergei Bobrovsky, Alexander Barkov, both +105.
31:33
Connor McDavid +650, but I don't see the point in Connor McDavid if you can get the Oilers at seven to one. Um, but maybe you think there's a world in which I guess he could win it as a loser, which I, I do not.
31:43
But any of those bets, like, what's the one you would make right now? Maybe it's the unsexy one, just go Panthers -135 tonight. Maybe it's the sexy one on the Oilers, something in between. What do you got?
31:54
Well, I have been heavy on the Panthers in this series, so I will be on them on the money line on, on Tuesday night. I j- I just, I still think that this is a fair enough price for them.
32:02
They know what's in front of them. They know they have to win this game. But I think to get a little plus money on it, I would go to Bob for the Conn Smythe.
32:08
Um, you and I have talked about this a lot, Gil, over the course of this series, and you mentioned Bob early on. And look, going into the series, I, I really- Of course...
32:15
thought Alexander Barkov had a legit shot, uh, to win this award. He's, he's had a decent series so far. He's done a pretty good job against Connor McDavid for the most part.
32:23
He's contributed offensively, but I don't think as dominant as I would like from a, from a Conn Smythe Trophy winner. And although Bob got pulled on Saturday, really his one bad game of the playoffs so far.
32:33
So if he steps up, just plays decent, and they close this out in either five, maybe six games, still think the Conn Smythe Trophy will go to Sergei Bobrovsky.
32:40
So it's a chance to get a little plus money with the Panthers. That's probably my favorite bet of the ones you mentioned.
32:45
Now, if you, if you do like the Oilers tomorrow night, I think instead of playing the, the +115 or, or whatever the number is at your book, maybe go a half unit on that and a half unit on the Oilers to, to win the series- Yeah, yeah...
32:57
and come back. Because I think if they win tomorrow night's game, uh, I believe this thing could go seven, so, uh, get a little value there. I think that's probably right, that last comment.
33:04
And, and I do agree with you on Bobrovsky as well. I think in the moment when Edmonton's crushing him in game four, I think in the moment you're like, "Oh, I don't know. Barkov now could be, could be live."
33:16
But if they end up winning tonight and it, you know, at the most it gives up a goal, let's say- It's one game... no, no one's gonna care. Yeah. Right? No one's gonna care about that game four performance. I'm with you.
33:25
Thank you, Jake. Appreciate it, and congrats on Bryson again. Yeah. Tha- thanks, boys. Let's keep the, uh, keep the good golf vibes going at the Travelers.
33:31
Yeah, and if we don't talk to you again, we love you for the season, man. Thank you. Yeah. Thanks, boys. Always a pleasure. I don't mean don't talk to him again forever.
33:38
[laughs] I just mean for this season, for God's sakes. Uh, NBA on the other side. Numbers Game, Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do.
33:52
It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSIN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
34:06
We don't care which way you're taking us in, we just appreciate that you are. Either way, it's Gil Alexander. It's producer number nine, Kelly Bidlin. So much more than a producer. How you doing, man? You good?
34:17
What are you, what are you furiously working on over there? Uh, d- nothing, just a couple things for the show, you know? Oh, sorry, man. Tim, Tim Lawson may be checking in on- Sorry to pry... on my, uh, I'm sorrys.
34:25
Uh, have I, have I dropped that many during the show today? I need, like, one of those, like, r- Well, we got, we got a couple things here by tweet. I'm like, "What did I, when did I say that?" I don't know, yeah. Yeah.
34:33
I, I need, like, a rubber band on the wrist situation, you know? Isn't that how, like, uh, OCD people, like, handle, ha- handle stuff like that? Snap themselves. [laughs] We get tweets of many of the both.
34:43
Oh, I didn't know we could talk about it. The Numbers Guys, "Oh, DraftKings, you broke my heart. Sent me a notification saying Grace Kim won the, won the, uh, the LPGA Tour. She did not. Lost in a playoff. Hurtful."
34:57
[laughs] This was, this was the play that- Oh, no. That was- This was the play that Jason Weingarten gave out on the show on Friday. She had a five-stroke lead headed into the final round.
35:09
It was tied by the turn, and she loses in a playoff. Oh. Nevada A's, or he's got the Nationals, uh, to have the most wins in June at 200 to 1. [laughs] You're live. That's awesome.
35:21
By the way, the, uh, Grace Kim ticket would've paid 20 to 1 for The Numbers Guys. Oh. Rat City, uh, said, uh, "You should let me know that the hockey game is tomorrow." Did I misspeak? It's tomorrow. I've said it...
35:30
I, I know I said it, the NBA game's tonight and the hockey game is tomorrow, but then maybe I fudged it later. Sorry, apologies. Yeah. I know he double-checked with me. All fair.
35:38
[laughs] Phil Weiss says, "Uh, just curious, Gils, are anyone in your world that's not the greatest of all time?" Who did I call the greatest of all time today? I don't know.
35:47
Maybe he's just randomly saying, "Hey, but Barry Lamar Bonds is the greatest of all time, and Iggy Stiatic will be." [laughs] What's, what's your problem? It's a different show, though. It wasn't today. Uh, let's see.
35:56
And this is from the Better Life Tim Lawson. He does these. "Kelly Bidlin's I'm sorry is better than Stephen A.'s however." Oh, he's, uh, 'cause I said Carl Sack.
36:04
I didn't call him the greatest of all time, just the greatest in my world. Best NBA bettor that I know. Um, it's not hyperbole, that's just the truth. Oh, okay. Just record-wise.
36:13
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, before we get to Carl Sack, I am, uh, thrilled to have this young man on the show. Uh, he has a great- Twitter handle.
36:20
Um, it goes by Brooksgate, which has to do with his dog being a jinx, and his friends used to call it, uh...
36:26
His dog's name was Brooks, and whenever Brooks would show up, the, they would lose their bets, so it became a Watergate type of situation. So Brooksgate is the name of his, uh, Twitter handle.
36:34
Great baseball stats that I think are super insightful for those considering, uh, futures bets because it, it lets you look at baseball through a different lens.
36:43
It's Jordan Harrison joining us this morning, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jordan? What's up, guys? Thanks for having me on. Appreciate you being on. Uh, how did this... What is your background?
36:53
How did starting a Twitter, uh, feed like this, um, how, how did it begin? W- are you a baseball guy growing up? And you have nothing to do with the old Brooksby Baseball, right? This is just about your dog, Brooksgate.
37:07
Yeah, no, I've gotten that. Uh, I don't know Brooksby, uh, Baseball. I don't know if I'm too young or- Yeah... what it is, but I don't, I don't know him. But yeah, just graduated college.
37:17
I'm working on a remote job, so I got a lot of time on my hands. Huge baseball fan, so. Yeah, you got- Throwing up stats left and right... clearly you gotta be a huge baseball fan.
37:27
We were citing a bunch of yours last week. Um, let's just go through a few of these, and I'm curious- Yes... like, do you come up with them on your own? Do you take, like, uh, suggestions from readers? Here's one.
37:38
Do you wanna start with this one that's on screen here, Kelly? Uh, each team's... I love this one. I think this was a suggestion from a listener. Uh- Yeah... or a follower.
37:46
Each team's top three starting pitchers by innings pitched, ranked by their combined ERA. Great idea because of the postseason, right? Right.
37:56
Yeah, that was the, I think the prompt, like, looking at postseason, uh, rotations. So you look at the Phillies, I mean, clearly probably been the best rotation in baseball so far.
38:07
Uh, kind of an underrated one people aren't talking about as much, the Tigers, uh, really good top three. Yankees obviously have been really strong. Um, so yeah, it's a good look at postseason rotations. Uh- Yeah...
38:21
a really good look at it, yeah.
38:22
Yeah, a really good look at it in terms of, again, these are the collective ERAs of top three starting pitchers of either team, because the theory being, if you get, if you can get into the postseason, then you have the killer rotation in the best of threes or the best of fives, uh, specifically.
38:37
C- uh, Philadelphia, no surprise, number one. Detroit was perhaps the surprise to people. Of course, they gotta get in. They're number four.
38:45
The one that was, uh, by the way, Colorado, for those wondering, the worst, no surprise, at 4.71. Might surprise people that Arizona is second worst at 4.69.
38:54
The interesting one, though, is obviously the Dodgers, who, uh, not only had a Mookie Betts injury yesterday, breaking his hand- Yeah...
39:00
but also, but also have a, uh, a situation where now on the IL is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, so that's huge in terms of a, uh... Well, we'll see. You know, obviously it'll...
39:13
he could come back before the postseason, but at least for the short term, that's gonna be a big deal, 'cause the Dodgers got a big boost here.
39:19
Let's go to the next one here, 'cause these are, again, just different ways to look at baseball and to, and to think about it, again, at Brooksgate.
39:25
How many games each team has played against the White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies, three worst teams in baseball, uh, and their record in those games.
39:34
And this, this is a, this is a great idea, too, because we don't often process it this way. But I knew this to be the case, Jordan, because Cleveland, by the way, what are they?
39:44
What's their record in 13 games against those three teams? Yeah, here we go. So under 500 against those three teams is pretty impressive with how good they've been.
39:53
Uh, the Phillies have been getting a ton of flack for a light schedule, but they've been beating up on good teams, too, so, uh, kind of an interesting look that the White Sox are obviously kind of a joke this year. And
40:07
Marlins and Rockies are two teams you want to face as well.
40:10
Yeah, so Guardian's six and seven against those three teams, and don't I know it, 'cause they went two and five in June against the White Sox and the Rockies, and that cost us our 16 to one for most wins in June.
40:24
And then as you point out, the Phillies, yes, they've played an easy schedule, epically easy, but at least they're beating those teams, nine and three in their 12 games. Let's go to the next one here.
40:32
I want to get through a bunch of these, 'cause these are all... they, they help, they help shape our view of these teams. Um, what is this one right here? This is team def- oh, I love this.
40:44
'Cause we often, uh, we quantify stuff on offense and we quantify pitching, but team defense is not something we think about. So this is team defense this year at Brooks_gate, by the way, is the exact Twitter handle.
40:55
Team defense, uh, and their, and the player that has added or cost the team most on defense. The Diamondbacks, number one at plus 19, uh, they're the best. They have helped themselves the most defensively.
41:10
Is this something you were just, like, inspired, like how can I, how can I find something that will add value to people's handicapping here?
41:17
Yeah, I mean, uh, look, I'm a terrible sports bettor, so I don't know if this, any of this helps you, uh, with your handicapping or anything. But, uh, this is in- there's a ton of defensive stats.
41:29
No one really knows which one's best. Outs Above Average seems to be the one that people like the most. Um, but this is an interesting look. Yeah. Uh, Diamondbacks, really strong defense.
41:41
Blue Jays, basically their whole goal this off-season was to revamp their defense. Hasn't translated to wins, but, uh, it's, it's working out on that front at least.
41:50
I think the fascinating part about that exchange right there is that Jordan is not a, not a sports bettor, right?
41:55
But some of the stuff that you're putting out, I'm telling you, from a, from a season-long standpoint especially- Yeah...
42:03
like, you know, 'cause some people might look at that Cleveland record and think, well, Cleveland is actually better than they are, worse than they are. Some people might look at the Phillies.
42:11
Let's go to the next one here, 'cause there's a bunch of this stuff. The three starting pitchers thing is great. Uh, let's go to the next one here, guys. This is, again, all at Brooks_gate.
42:20
Jordan Harrison, our guest courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Games where the opposing starting pitcher pitched six plus innings and allowed zero runs. This was pretty surprising to me.
42:28
A lot of these reveal, uh, surprising, uh, results. Games where the opposing starting pitcher pitched six plus innings and allowed zero runs. 13 times at the top. Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics.
42:43
So you're saying that those are the teams where the opposing team went six innings and gave up zero runs? Yeah, basically how many times has the- Ah, gotcha. Okay... the opposing starting pitcher shut you down.
42:54
And then the Phillies zero times. Never has happened. Yes. Right. Which is, look at that chart where no one's close to them. All right, let's go to the next one. That one I, uh, that one I read wrong on this one.
43:04
Um, I misinterpreted that one. Okay, the next one. This is the Phillies... Okay, and this is about for Phillies backers.
43:10
The Phillies have still only played, this is from a few ga- a few days ago, have still only played 10 games.
43:16
This changed with their last series, but the Phillies have still only played 10 games against teams currently over 500. In other words, um, and by the way, we already mentioned they're eight and two in those games.
43:25
This is before their last series. That is just a reminder about strength of schedule and how, yes, while the Phillies have exploited those games, um, boy, their schedule is going to be nothing but tough moving forward.
43:37
Do you feel like with all your baseball stuff, you think the Braves can get back into that division race or not at all?
43:42
The division, I don't know, but going into the playoffs, I mean, I think the Braves are as talented as anyone. We know they're gonna make moves at the deadline. They always do.
43:51
Uh, I think the Braves, they're, they've looked terrible lately, but I, I still think they're as talented as anyone. Good for you on this Twitter feed, man. You, you, you definitely have some things that are great.
44:01
This one has nothing to do with betting, but I loves the... I love this one, Jordan. The player with the most walk-off hits for every team since 2010. I love this one. Freddie Freeman for the Braves is still the leader.
44:14
Freddie Freeman, when he played on the Braves, still the leader. Most walk-off hits, uh, since 2010, 13. The... I'm looking down the list. You have to. Matt Kemp still has nine with the Dodgers on there.
44:26
[laughs] It's amazing. Um, I'm trying to see where the... I think Sal Perez for the Royals is still the only current match or the highest current match at eight, I think.
44:37
Yeah, I think there's only three guys on here that are still on their team. Yeah. Uh, as someone commented, so.
44:43
And I think Yankees fans might be shocked that their leaders in this category are, it's a tie at seven walk-off hits since 2010 between Gleyber Torres and Brett Gardner.
44:56
Brett, Kelly, in my whole baseball betting life, the player that killed me the most, like I knew if I was fading them, I'm like, "Oh, please don't be Brett Gardner." [laughs] He would destroy me every time.
45:04
I've heard you say it before. Yeah. I'm laughing at the Marlins at the bottom. Standen Delich. [laughs] Standen Delich. Standen's on there.
45:11
Uh, Jordan, listen, we could go through a bunch of these, uh, team ranking and offensive production, production by spot in the batting order from one to 30. We'll, we'll show that later. Yeah. Really appreciate it.
45:21
Congratulations on the Twitter feed. I think it's awesome. Brooks_Gate, and, uh, I'll continue to monitor it, I'll continue to talk about it, and I hope your followers increase dramatically, sir. [laughs] Thanks, uh...
45:34
Thanks for having me on, guys. Jordan Harrison, everybody. Brooks_Gate. Carl Zack, next
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