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Jun 18, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 18, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 18, 2024
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45:32
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all the ways to take us in. Whichever one you choose, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine. So much more than a producer, live from Bar Canada here. The D was happening. Not much, buddy. How you doing? I'm good. Uh, we have an NBA champion.
0:29
We're gonna talk about that momentarily. We gotta talk about MVP too, man. I just... PSA coming. I'm just warning you. [laughs] Um, on the show today, Drew Dinsick as always on Tuesday.
0:40
We'll talk about a, uh, smattering of sports with him. I don't know, the ramp up to the Olympics. Maybe we'll have some Olympics thoughts from Drew. So- DraftKings posts and stuff like swimming trials and everything.
0:48
Oh, he'll be all over that- Yeah... I would assume. Um, Drew will be here. Lou Finicaro, Gamba Lou, Sweet Lou. Are they booing? No, they're chanting Lou. [laughs] This is his time of year, man. This is his time of year.
1:01
From the About Business podcast. About Business. I like that. Uh, we'll talk hockey with him because we do have hockey still, Stanley Cup Final tonight.
1:09
Maybe Florida closes out Edmonton just like Boston did the Mavericks last night in a gentleman's sweep. We'll talk to Lou about that, and the College World Series.
1:18
And then there were six in the College World Series, four SEC, two ACC. And piping up the odds this morning.
1:26
If anybody wants to jump on the Florida State bandwagon with me and Gil, you can get better odds [laughs] or, or just as good odds pretty much, mid-20s. Oh, not as good, not as good as mine. I had 35 to one. You got 30?
1:35
Yeah. 35 to one. But the... But yes, will they have another elimination game today? If Florida State loses today, they, they're, they're donezo.
1:41
Gotta win four in a row when you lose 12 to 11 because a check swing w- never mind. Garbage. Um, then, uh, Paul Spohrer a little later on. Before Paul, Rufus Peabody will be on the show.
1:54
Um, I've known Rufus for over a decade. Great dude. Uh, for those who are unfamiliar, I know a lot of Numbers Game listeners of course are familiar with Rufus, but for those who aren't, uh, he wears a lot of hats.
2:06
He is the, uh, half of the Massey Peabody analytics team. He's half of the Bet The Process podcast with his buddy Jeff Ma. He, of course, is one of the co-founders, along with Captain Jack, of Unabated.
2:18
But first and foremost, he is a sports bettor and always will be first and foremost a sports bettor. I don't know about always will be in the future, but certainly always to this point in his life.
2:25
And yesterday, not yesterday, the day before yesterday, pardon me, um, he had a situation where starting the day,
2:35
if Bryson DeChambeau were to win the US Open, which spoiler alert, he ended up doing, by the way, Kelly, uh, Rufus and his group would lose $500,000. Which again, to you and me, sounds like a tremendous amount of money.
2:49
To, uh, you know, Rufus, big maher that he is, not quite as much. But, um, not quite as big a deal I should say. But still, the decision had to come down to, okay, bankroll protection.
3:02
How did they manage that situation, uh, to protect or not to protect against that possible loss?
3:12
And we'll get into it, and we'll also juxtapose it against what happened three years ago when he came on the show, because Rufus is good about this. Rufus, by the way, will be coming to us from London.
3:21
Um, remember three years ago, I mentioned this yesterday, I was trying to remember it off the top of my head, Mito Pereira in the PGA Championship, he actually had Mito Pereira.
3:28
That was different though, 'cause he had Mito at long shot odds. Yeah. And he did not hedge, as I recall.
3:33
And Mito gacked it in the final hole of that 2021, uh, US, uh, excuse me, PGA Championship, which Justin Thomas ended up winning in a playoff against Will Zalatoris. But we'll get into that with Rufus a little later on.
3:44
And just general hedging for the mere mortals out there. What, what is his philosophy on hedging? The age-old hedging question. We'll get into that with Rufus later on the show.
3:53
Uh, NBA though, congratulations Boston Celtics. Congratulations all bettors who had the Boston Celtics in whatever form, either just last night or to win the championship at different points in futures.
4:04
The Celtics crushed the Mavericks in game five.
4:07
Uh, they do so by 18 for their 18th championship as a franchise, and that breaks the tie with the Los Angeles Lakers for the most titles in the history of the National Basketball Association.
4:20
And, um, in case you missed the game, here's your 30-second recap. It was 19-18 Boston, and that's the last time it was competitive. Because then the Celtics had a nine to nothing run to close the quarter.
4:31
They led by 10 at the end of the quarter, which at the time was their biggest lead. Second quarter, uh, they went up 15. Mavericks had a mini run.
4:38
But then to close the quarter, a 19 to seven Boston run that ended on an emphatic Peyton Pritchard bang, as Mike Breen would call it, from behind half court at the buzzer.
4:48
The Celtics led by 21 at the half, and for the entire second half, Kelly, the biggest lead was 26. The Mavericks never got it closer than 17, and that was just not a competitive display at all.
5:01
Nor was this NBA finals, quite frankly, with the exception, of course, of the blip of game four. And so congratulations to everybody on the Celtics.
5:08
Sorry about your Mavericks futures ticket, but I would imagine you had long ago written that in the loss column. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yep. Still a, uh, uh...
5:17
Yeah, the playoffs weren't, weren't great betting overall, but some of those futures kind of helped balance things out. NBA season comes to an end. It was good betting regular season, so move on.
5:26
Few week break before Summer League starts, Gil. Yeah. Summer League, baby. Uh, this was, uh, I, yeah, I, I can't... Y- you know I love the NBA, I love betting the NBA.
5:35
It was a boring finals, it was a boring playoff, so overall- It was horrible. Yeah. It was all horrible. From a, from a, just a fan's perspective, the finals was the symbol of it all, right?
5:43
Those finals might have been worse than everything, uh, in the end. The Mavericks just, uh, didn't put up a fight. Here, here's your PSA, though.
5:50
Uh, and we'll have the NBA draft obviously before Summer League too, Kelly, which I don't know what the betting breadth of that will be, quite frankly, what'll be available to us. But, um, I wanna- I got Klingon betting.
6:00
You got a Klingon bet? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. You still think that's gonna happen, maybe? I don't know. [laughs] Well, who knows? We don't know. Um, okay.
6:06
Donovan Klingon go number one, by the way, is what Kelly's referring to, which Zach Cohen has, JBT has, you have now. Uh, okay, so y- Jason Tatum.
6:16
This is just a PSA, a reminder to all, that betting on any kind of awards, as we have displayed on this show, and I'm sure network-wide, but certainly on this show with our near losses over the last year, um,
6:31
and then there was last night, which is just again, a reminder of what are we doing betting in a, uh, betting any of this stuff, particularly in the NBA. Um, 11 votes for NBA Finals MVP.
6:42
That's the first problem right there. There's only 11 votes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. First problem. Seven went to Jaylen Brown, four went to Jayson Tatum.
6:51
Jayson Tatum, who led the Celtics through the course of the finals in points, rebounds, assists, three-point percentage, free throw percentage, uh, [laughs] I mean, he beat...
7:04
Jayson Tatum, just to put it in historical perspective, is only the sixth player in the history of the NBA Finals to lead his championship team in points, rebounds and assists. Did Jayson Tatum win the MVP?
7:18
No, he did not. I just want to shout out Nevada Gaming. Uh, thank you for not- [laughs]...
7:22
putting up the odds here in Las Vegas because you saved me on a Jrue Holiday bet earlier, which I knew you would, and you saved me on a Jayson Tatum bet yesterday.
7:31
Uh, the way I figure it now, Nevada Gaming owes me about twenty-nine- [laughs]... thou- $29,000. But we'll give-- That's another story. So anyway, here's the deal.
7:38
So seven went, seven votes went to Jaylen Brown, four to Jayson Tatum. When we were texting, you and me, and then I was also texting Felika and Will Hill, I was convinced, as were you,
7:51
convinced that Jayson Tatum was winning this. By the way, not just me, and we can have, I mean, we can have a reasonable debate if you thought, if you thought Jaylen Brown should win it, okay, fine.
8:01
But just know that the betting markets, the live betting markets, Jayson Tatum got as high as minus 550 in the fourth quarter. Wasn't just me, right? It was the market. Well, the market, right. Right, right, yeah, yeah.
8:13
It's still an awards thing. Market in quotes. But the point being that, a- again, sixth player in the history of the NBA Finals to lead in points, rebounds and assists, and he didn't win it.
8:24
And so, uh, because I wanted to name names, I went and actually looked at the names, and then ha- what's the most recent, uh, thing that I obviously feel [laughs] was more universal?
8:33
That Victor Wembanyama did not win Defensive Player of the Year. And I just, for giggles, Kelly, wanted to see if there was any overlap in Gobert and Jaylen Brown voters. And what do you know?
8:43
Well, you only had, uh, you only had what? Seven possibilities. [laughs] Six of them. The six that were in both all did that. All Gobert? All of them.
8:52
Sam Amick from The Athletic, Tim Bontemps from ESPN, Tim Good Time, by the way, if you're translating at home, Vince Goodwill at Yahoo Sports, Sean Powell at NBA.com, Simone Sandri at La Gazzetta dello Sport, that's Italian, and Jeff Zillgitt at USA Today, they were all Rudy Gobert voters, and they were all Jaylen Brown voters.
9:10
And my only point in all of this is- [laughs]... what are we doing voting on this stuff, guys? What are we doing? What are we doing? Um, I'm thinking in the NBA, if you catch me betting on any award
9:24
besides Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year or perhaps a Wembanyama long shot MVP, you have the permission to crawl across this shield and slap me in the face. Oh, nice. It's my turn. Sweet. That's your turn.
9:34
I like it. I like it. The, uh... Man, it's tough. Like, I don't wanna s- I don't know about you, I don't wanna sit here, and you're not doing it either.
9:40
I don't, I wanna sit here and say Jaylen Brown doesn't deserve this, 'cause it was, it was tight. Like, yes, the shooting percentages, and he picked up a lot of Luka. But man, I just...
9:49
When I texted you, I didn't even know there was like, people had live odds up, so I didn't even see that until after the game. I think, I think I saw Scott Seidenberg actually tweeted it out.
9:56
Scott Seidenberg put it up there, yep. Um, but uh, like, when I texted you, I'm like, I'm like, "All right," like, "This is becoming overwhelming. He's f- like, he's finally having that big game."
10:06
That's the s- Like, "Jaylen Brown's kind of taking a step back tonight. Like, this has got to swing to Tatum's side," right? [laughs] I would've had Jrue, quite frankly, second behind- Oh, okay... Jayson Tatum.
10:16
Wanted to bring that up. Jrue Holiday finishes the NBA playoffs with a 50/40/95 split. Yeah, is that good? That's good.
10:25
Like, I, I mean, I, I don't think we're gonna do this anytime, uh, soon on this show, but, um, you know, if I still had an NBA podcast maybe. Uh, greatest role players- Wow... of all time. Seven then.
10:34
[laughs] I mean, like, Jrue Holiday, if we're still calling him a role player. I mean, what he's done for a couple teams has been just amazing.
10:43
Only two players in the 2020s to win two championships, Jrue Holiday and KCP, and both did so for two different teams. Mm. Yeah, that's the list. Uh, congratulations though, again, to the Boston Celtics.
10:54
And we look at next year, the Celtics are installed, 'cause remember, Kelly, you cannot bet it unless it's installed. Correct. Uh, the Celtics are installed as the short shot, um, at, uh, five to one, is it? Let's go...
11:05
No. Pardon me, plus 250, even shorter- Yeah... [laughs] at DraftKings. Uh, the Nuggets eight to one, the Thunder plus 850, the T-Wolves nine to one, and the Bucks plus 950.
11:14
Everybody, starting with the Mavericks, double digits at 10 to one and longer. Um, Celtics shouldn't be plus 250. Yeah.
11:21
The Nuggets would appear to be the best bet on the board for me at eight to one, or the Thunder at plus 850. Now, you know me. Or the T-Wolves, one of those three.
11:27
The Nu- the Nuggets caught my eye, but then there's that one other team in the Eastern Conference that's always. And by the way, we put the Celtics in historical perspective. 80 and 21. Is it a great team? Absolutely.
11:38
Is it as good as the Warriors teams or the Chicago Bulls teams? No. We went through that last week. Um, Drew Dinsick's thought, I know he, thoughts, he don- I know he had the Celtics. Congratulations to him. That's next.
11:48
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at the D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Ritland.
12:05
Still to come on the show, Lou Finaccaro to talk both NHL Stanley Cup, uh, final, game five tonight between the Panthers and the, uh, Edmonton Oilers, and Rufus Peabody to talk about his US Open betting experience.
12:20
Uh, part of a gambling, uh, group, and, uh, stood to lose $500,000 if Bryson DeChambeau were to win the United States Open that morning How they handled it, how they decided to protect against that, um, what the, the inner dialogue was, what he's- his philosophy is in general on hedging.
12:39
That's all coming up in hour number two. I do want- He had a, he had a Rory bet, or he had a no on Bryson. Yeah, so he h- so they have pos- they had positions on multiple golfers- Oh, okay. Okay... as they always do.
12:50
And then part of the, part of the way to protect the 500,000 possible loss was to bet on Bryson. But to bet on Bryson there, you had to lay a lot obviously- Mm-hmm...
13:02
'cause he had a three-stroke lead heading into the final round. Um, so,
13:07
you know, th- this is, this is the part of this discussion that's gonna be interesting, is because Rufus has everything by model, and he is super confident in his projections, to a point, not, you know, o- o- overly confident.
13:19
So for him, it's a very precise mathematical calculation. For guys like Fezick, by the way, Fezick just texted it, he says, uh, "Bet the Guardians to win the AL Central," he said, minus 130. That's his...
13:29
I don't know if Fezick knows this, but we've been on the Guardians for a couple months here on the show. But he said minus 130 on the Guardians to win the division. But he, uh, but Fezick is a very mathematical guy, too.
13:38
And so, but Rufus is running models. So for him, it's a, it's a confidence based on his numbers that he has a good amo- a tremendous amount of confidence in.
13:51
Obviously, he's got a fair, you know, he's got his fair price, but he's got what, what the Betfair market is, he's got what a s- what sportsbook market is. So
13:59
going back and forth with his brother, and we'll get into this with Rufus, 'cause his brother is now part of his group, and his brother has not been doing this for nearly as long as he has.
14:07
And so I'm curious how this is different for him versus how it used to be for him when he was doing it with a much more veteran group, right, of, uh, his buddy, uh, Big Zach, Little Zach, Tray, and all those guys. Um,
14:22
then he was the guy who was, you know, he was still the guy running the numbers while they put in the bets, but I think he was more deferential then to them. And so, um, now he's sort of the leader, and it makes sense.
14:36
Um, and it, it's, I- I'm curious if having your brother in the group also, um, sort of inhabits your brain when you make these decisions. Yeah, probably, probably does.
14:49
'Cause if it's your brother saying, "Yeah, I don't really wanna lose that amount of money," you know, they still end up losing- Mm... no matter what on, on DeChambeau.
14:59
We'll find out, right, how much they lost in the end on him. They've had a great run, but it's just a, it's, it's interesting because even for Rufus, I wonder if human emotions gets in the, the thought process of it.
15:12
And now that's Rufus. If it were somebody else, mere mortals, who are deciding a, a, a much different kind of hedge, um, what is the general philosophy? Can you apply a general philosophy?
15:24
Because most people don't have numbers so precise to back up their conviction, right? Yeah. So, you know, and there's all kinds of different things.
15:35
Like when I had the, go- going back to the 2020, 'cause, uh, Drew just referenced it, and we talked about it earlier with, with Iga in the French Open.
15:41
"Okay, I, I know I'm supposed to, like, put some money on Sofia Kenin here in the finals, even though I know it's the stupid bet, but I guess just emotionally, in the off chance she wins, I don't wanna lose money on this, so okay, I'll put down a couple dollars on Sofia Kenin."
15:59
Right? There's all kinds of things like that, and so it's not a universal thing. But we'll get to Rufus. It's a fascinating story.
16:03
And, and golf I think it gets even, uh, golf is some of the most complicated 'cause you're dealing with- 'Cause there's multiples... yeah, you're dealing with longer odds. Yeah.
16:11
I, you know, we were talking about this a lot off the air yesterday, but it just also depends how much, how often you bet golf.
16:16
[laughs] Like, I think if it's a, you know, you might be used to 20 to 1s all the time if you're betting golf often, but maybe, yeah, I mean, I know Rufus is, obviously, but if you're out there and it's just, you know, a, a kind of one-off major bet for you, then you might approach it differently.
16:30
The other thing I'm interested to hear from him on is, you know, the, the options, you know, to hedge. Okay, different before the, before the final round.
16:40
Yes, you could've gotten better odds live, but for him, I'm guessing you also can't get down nearly as much money live. Not as much as you want to. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Right. Though he, he was able to get down some.
16:49
Okay. Like, I was impressed with how much he could get down. Okay. That's interesting. Um, and then there's the notion of can you replenish your account, um, as efficiently?
17:01
Certain accounts can be replenished more efficiently than others can. Sure, yeah, yeah. So that's also, like, a consideration in, in all of it. So it's never that clean, you know? It's not, yeah.
17:11
Um, and when Fezick was chiming in on yesterday, and I think this was, you know, and Sammich was on, I think this was the miscommunication, which is sort of like, I'm not, uh, I'm not disputing your math.
17:20
Like, his, Fezick is, goes immediately into Kelly Criterion and this always a good and all that. That's not what I'm talking about.
17:25
I'm talking about for me, there's Rufus on one end of the spectrum backed by numbers, and then there's again, this cottage industry of gambling Twitter, which I don't know if they
17:36
think they're being smart about it or if they like to sound smart or whatever, it's like immediately they go to a hedge as a default, right?
17:43
We have some guys, w- w- we often have folks who will, who will tweet us and will be like, "Okay, you know, I can win $200 on this bet I made, uh, but I can lock in 20 bucks." Seriously. I mean, the ca- Right?...
17:56
the cash out questions we get are, yeah, it's incredible. But, you know, and my, my, my, my response is always, "Does 20 bucks, if, if 20 bucks means enough to you, then sure, you, I guess you should.
18:07
But, like, does, does it really? 'Cause if it doesn't, w- why'd you make the bet in the first place?" Yeah. Um- I, I alway- I mean, I always borrow your line. It's, i- it's the what's changed?
18:16
What, what's changed- What's changed?... since you bet it? What's changed? Like, why'd you bet it in the first place? I have Heather Watson in this, uh, tennis match at plus 180.
18:23
I mean, I, I didn't hedge heavily, but I hedged out, hedged Mavericks a little bit, but I had that exact of 40 to 1, and yes, like, what, what changed is the Celtics I thought were a little mispriced heading into that series.
18:33
So that's why I did it there. But g- I mean, uh, golf's another, it's a whole other animal I have Heather Watson in this tennis match. She was up 5-2 in the third set, plus 180. And where are we at now, Gil?
18:45
Match point, Buskova. Uh, it's just, it's, it's just right on the doorstep, and the mental thing happens, and you can't close it out. We'll see if it's, uh, it's gonna be over here momentarily. Unbelievable.
18:57
Any early, uh, any early insights from grass for heading into, you know, Wimbledon or anything that you've been kind of noting?
19:04
Uh, yeah, so earlier I came on here and I said, "Okay, is this gonna be the only tournament where I don't have an Iga ticket pre-flop?" And I said, "Maybe."
19:15
Um, I've sort of decided that will not be the case, that I will... 'Cause, 'cause Iga's whole thing is she, she came out, and J-Rod was great, he sent me something about this. Um, she staves off the first match point.
19:25
Um, okay, um- Staves off? You know, I- Iga says- I thought you can only stave off elimination. What's that? S- I thought you can only stave off elimination. [laughs] No, it's an elimination in its own right, match point.
19:36
Um, Iga's came out and said, she's like, "You know what? It doesn't take me anything to re-acclimate to clay." And she's right, right?
19:44
Like, she g- she, when the clay tour, remember that first tournament she didn't win, and everybody lost their mind. I'm like, "Eh, she's a week behind 'cause she's playing Billie Jean Cup."
19:51
But within one, you know, two tournaments she was already the best clay player in the world, and she never lost again. So I, I get it when she's emphatic about this.
19:59
So I don't know, let's, let's talk about Wimbledon and the Olympics together. I don't know what price, another match point.
20:06
I don't know what price you would have to l- give me for Iga for me not to bet her to win the Olympics part of things. Gotcha.
20:12
And by the way, Aryna Sabalenka already has withdrawn, Ons Jabeur has withdrawn, not that Jabeur was a problem in clay in the Olympics, but there's a bunch of players that are gonna withdraw both on the men's and the women's side for the reason that they don't want to transition back to clay- Okay...
20:23
from grass. C- c- can we seize on that for just a second? Yeah. Like, this is, isn't that the ultimate example of, like, I mean, and these are sports we love, me and you like, I mean, golf, tennis.
20:33
If that stuff's coming into play, like, this shouldn't, like, it, I don't even know if it should be a sport in the Olympics. Yeah, but the Olympic- I mean, like, you're avoiding the Olympics...
20:41
the, the Olympics doesn't care. They don't care. Yeah. They're like, "We're doing our thing." They, IOC, they could care less about anything. I don't know if the Olympics don't care, but, like, NBC doesn't care.
20:49
But to your point, I'll, I mean, uh, absolutely, and by the way, Watson lost. I'm just, just brutality.
20:55
Um, I don't know that there's a price I wouldn't lay on Iga to win the Olympics women's side, and on the, on the Wimbledon side of things, she, she probably should not be the short shot, right?
21:07
She's never won a grass tournament before. Um, but might we get a number that
21:15
absolutely, and, and might we get a number that right now when we see the numbers, I think it's too, she's, she's too level with the Rybakinas and the Sabalenkas of the world. Like, I, it's not a great price for her.
21:29
Um, but what, what Drew said on the men's side needs to be reiterated not only on Milos Raonic, but also on a guy like Matteo Berrettini. Some of these servebot kind of players, good God.
21:38
Like, it just doesn't, it doesn't even become a tennis match anymore, right? Right.
21:41
If Milos Raonic is acing you 47 times, that's less tennis than it is a throwback to the John Isner days of I'm just gonna serve bot you to death and see what you can, uh, see if we could actually have points.
21:53
So that's a player to look out for. R- Raonic and Berrettini, see what their prices are and consider that.
21:59
By the way, I did make, though, 'cause on a faraway place, while I could never bet NBA MVP, and we can't bet Con Smythe here either, there is a faraway place that did offer Con Smythe yesterday. Oh, I like this, yeah.
22:10
I, I texted you. I bet Bobrovsky yesterday literally with a three to one lead after he had a terrible game four at plus 131 yesterday. I do not buy at all that he's not winning the Con Smythe if they win today.
22:26
It w- w- and what'd he swing from, like minus 250 to that? I, I couldn't believe it. I was like, "Plus 131? Give me that." So I am on Bobrovsky tonight for, uh, for Con Smythe. We'll come back.
22:34
Sweet Lou, Lou Fitocarro on Stanley Cup Final and College World Series next. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
22:46
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
22:57
Uh, Numbers Game brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more, of course, at zyn.com. That's Z-Y-N dot com. Wintergreen, Bill Ady's favorite flavor, by the way.
23:09
Gil, you should b- point that out. Uh, Rufus Peabody still to come, talk hedging, uh, as is Paul Spohrer. So who we, we've had on the show today?
23:16
Like, if I go through the rundown, we have had, um, in terms of our guests- Drew Daymont... Drew, Lou coming up, Rue coming up, and then, uh, uh, Paul Spohrer didn't work out.
23:27
I was gonna say Poo, but that didn't work out. [laughs] Just like, thought you were doing something with the guest list today.
23:31
Um, all right, let me read tweets before we get to Lou, because we haven't read any tweets yet. Can I do that? Let me do that real quick. Uh, we get tweets of people in the book.
23:37
Mike Alvarez, "Uh, now that the NBA season is over, is it three or four more vacations that Gilly takes before the first mega pod of the season?" [laughs] Under, but not by much.
23:48
Uh, Brandon Pierce, uh, Brandon Priest, p- pardon me, Brandon, "Jalen Brown's defense, especially on Luka, could have easily been the tiebreaker for some. He balled out early in the series, highlight reel plays also.
23:59
I bet Brown, so there's that as well." [laughs] Yeah, yeah, I mean, it's- Good admission...
24:04
I, I, I think we've said, or I've said it all along at least, the defensive si- thing of it, I think you gotta throw out 'cause- It's kind of a wash, right?... Drew brought it up. Like, Tatum- Yeah...
24:11
guarding the centers all series long, there's not many guys in the NBA you're asking to do that, uh, who are playing, you know, his position. Master of Puppets, "The JT," meaning the Jason Tatum bet, "was a good bet.
24:22
Love the show and the discussion that's, uh, the discussions that take place." Thank you, Master of Puppets. Just Follow VSiN says, "Uh, role player goat Jeff Hornacek." Not sure where the reference is on that.
24:31
[laughs] Uh, it's random. It's when I, it's when I brought up Jrue Holiday. Oh, Jrue Holiday. Yeah, man. Okay. Just the sick run he had.
24:37
Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, I tweeted you, uh, two shows ago and said Jalen Brown at minus 220 was a slam dunk for MVP because of his leadership. You asked if I was trying to be funny. It definitely factored in the voting."
24:48
You think leadership factored into the voting? I do not think that that factored into the voting. I thought the post-game stuff was kind of boring last night, too, because nobody has a personality on Boston's team.
24:58
Don't get me started on the halftime show and all that. Yeah, yeah, yeah [laughs] Like, uh, like nobody's that excited to hear from. Yeah Like Al Horford was the coolest part, right?
25:06
Yes Horford winning- 'Cause he spoke in Spanish... finally winning something, and then his reaction with the family and stuff, that was my favorite part of everything post-game. True dat.
25:14
Um, I'll read more tweets coming up, but we don't want to, uh, shortchange our next guest.
25:18
Lou Finicaro, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, the host, not only a Veesin contributor, but the host of the About Business podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @gamblou. That's G-A-M-B Lou.
25:29
How you doing, Lou? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on, guys. I'm, I'm feeling pretty privileged to be sandwiched between Drew and Roo. [laughs] Well, there it is. It's only fitting.
25:41
Uh, let's start with hockey since we haven't talked much. I, I just mentioned before the break that last night I bet Bobrovsky for Conn Smythe at plus 131. Am I wrong in thinking that's ridiculous? Yes.
25:55
It wasn't so long ago before the last game that he was minus 130, minus 140, Gil, and, uh, Florida loosened their belt one game, let a bunch of goals in. I don't think that was Bob, that was the team.
26:10
You can count on, uh, Head Coach Maurice filling these guys' ears with, uh, colorful language to get them ready to play. They don't wanna go back to Edmonton.
26:23
We'll see, I think, the best game of the season out of Florida, and I think you'll see Bob return right back to his normal self, and, uh, those that have Bob Conn Smythe tickets, I think are in great position. I do, too.
26:40
Uh, Panthers are minus 142 tonight, now up to minus 142, uh, we're showing at DraftKings, to close out the Edmonton Oilers in a gentleman's sweep. Sounds like you might be leaning Panthers here?
26:53
Uh, I have tons of Panther futures, so I'm happy about that. I monitor these opening lines, and you hit it on the head. It's up to 142. For those that may...
27:04
A- and the longer you wait, this, they're gonna come in on the Panthers, so that price will not go down.
27:10
If you wanna find creative ways to maybe get involved with the Panthers other than minus 142, the race to two co- to two goals on DraftKings, which is available here in Arizona, minus 115 for the Panthers, the race to three goals, plus 115.
27:27
I'd take a look at those avenues. Oh, I like it. Okay.
27:30
We'll see if this, uh, outcome tonight mimics what we saw in the NBA finals in terms of, uh, both, uh, eventual winners dropping a game four, but then coming right back and, uh, putting it all to bed.
27:42
Uh, I know you're more of an NHL playoffs guy. That's always been sort of your hallmark, Lou, if I remember that correctly about you.
27:49
So I, I ask this sort of off the cuff, uh, not knowing if you have an answer to this, but when you look to next season, is there a team that sort of you feel is under the radar headed into next season that you feel might be undervalued just generally?
28:04
Well, this year that answer was Buffalo, and they kind of spit up on themselves, so I'll come right back to them. They're loaded with young good talent, have a decent goaltender.
28:14
The other thing I would watch is Edmonton. We remember a year ago that Florida got swept by the Golden Knights, and it, it's a process to win a cup.
28:24
You have to have your face rubbed in it a little bit, and if Edmonton does not make too many moves, maybe picks up a strong, sturdy defenseman and maybe a goaltender, they're r- they're right there, and you got the will and drive of McDavid and Draisaitl that need to make history by hoisting a cup.
28:43
Uh, I, I would take a long, hard look at the Oilers, though they may not be flying under the radar.
28:50
Last thing here on the, uh, on the Stanley Cup Final, if someone disagrees with you and someone says, "Ah, actually, I have a lot of conviction on the Oilers to pull off this miracle from being down three to nothing," which has happened a handful of times in the history of the NHL, is seven to one currently enough for you to recommend that bet?
29:08
Well, it's, it's the only angle you have, because if you look for McDavid for Conn Smythe, they're smart enough to have him posted at seven to one also- Yeah... Gil. Yeah So there's no real wiggle room there.
29:20
And at seven to one, when you look at the opening line in this series, Florida minus 130... I- in this game, Florida minus 135, Oilers, uh, plus 115. Why is Florida so cheap? That's a, that's a very affordable price.
29:36
Okay, let us shift to the College World Series, which I'm saying every year, it just lives up to the hype in Omaha. It's so great. You have some, uh, you know, obviously we're, we're just into it.
29:46
Not just into it, but we're, we've only had two eliminations so far. We will see what happens this morning with a third. But, uh, the early trends are in, and they are?
29:56
The early trends are that the lines makers, uh, seem to be very adroit at being able to determine who the favorite is and should be, as favorites are 8 and 0 now.
30:07
Uh, I've been chasing dogs, and I started this, uh, series 0 and 3, but those three losses were all the first three games walk-off wins by the favorite.
30:20
So I felt encouraged with the favorites, though I'm still swinging at air as far as they're concerned.
30:27
The other trend that has to be acknowledged, I think, is the amazing trend to the under, and that's seven and one so far. The only loss there was game two when Florida State's bullpen imploded against Tennessee. Ugh.
30:42
But that's contributing, uh, that is being contributed to by a gale force wind blowing dead south directly into the hitter's teeth.
30:52
Teams that rely on home run balls are being challenged now, and it's small ball teams that can hit doubles, steal bases, that are having some success, which should concern...
31:04
I know you guys have Florida State tickets, and that first game today, that total's gone 10 and a half at open, and within an hour it's nine and a half. Florida State, I believe, is the more offensive team.
31:16
They do tend to rely on power much more than Carolina, who relies on pitching. I look for a really tight game.
31:23
I lean to Florida State there because their offense has been so hot and North Carolina has not been able to really muster many runs. Uh, but the under is, i- is really something to take a look at.
31:35
23 mile an hour winds blowing straight into the hitters' teeth currently. And that's an interesting point, that that, that wind might mitigate some of that Florida State offense.
31:45
Florida State -125, a slight favorite in the first elimination game today. That's at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific, Florida State versus North Carolina. So a third ACC team will be eliminated, um, later today.
31:58
And by the way, the weather, I'm sure you've checked your Doppler. That, that wind should persist today. Beyond today, you're not so sure, right? I'm, boy, I'm a meteorologist in Omaha this time of year, Gil.
32:08
[laughs] And so tomorrow it's supposed to drop off considerably. All I can hope for is that it, it lulls people to sleep on those unders for Thursday, Friday, and then for the championship series we get gales again.
32:21
Okay. What about Kentucky, Florida? That's the second of two elimination games, uh, today, Kentucky and Florida. A loss and they're done.
32:29
Florida with a, uh, with a real impressive win with the back end of their bullpen yesterday. Florida is a minus... Excuse me, pardon me. Kentucky is a -135 favorite, total once again at nine and a half this evening.
32:44
Yeah, I, I've been looking hard for a total on that game, and as soon as we're off I'm gonna go all, I'm gonna bury that under as fast as I can. Uh, I will say that, uh, Kentucky is the prototypical small ball team.
32:58
They're built for Omaha. They put pressure on the other team's defense. They steal bases. They hit doubles. They bump the ball.
33:06
I, I have to, even though Florida was there last year and are a veteran-laden squad, uh, there's a reason they were the last team in the field of 64. Kentucky's the second ranked team in the country.
33:18
I look for them to bounce back after a loss today and have a strong showing. Who do you think wins the whole thing, Lou? I don't know how you can negate Tennessee.
33:28
I have A&M futures, but they have a couple key players dinged up.
33:32
The good news is both A&M and Tennessee are in that winners bracket after having won their first two games, and so they have plenty of rest coming into it.
33:41
Uh, my hope is that the Tennessee side with Florida State, if they advance today, can really test Tennessee in a couple of games, take some steam out of them for a rested A&M. Yeah.
33:53
All right, Lou, we got about 20 seconds. Talk to me about the About Business podcast. How often do you do it? When did it start? It started a couple years ago. It breaks every Friday.
34:02
There's a UFC fight card, and it's my final releases for each UFC fight card. We've had very, uh, we've had great success profiting from the UFC fights, and you can catch it at gamblu.com.
34:15
And again, thanks so much for having me this morning, Gil. Lou, always a pleasure. UFC, hockey, College World Series, football. Lou's time of year. Whatever it is. Lou's time of year. Thank you, Lou. Appreciate it, man.
34:27
Nicest guy in the business as well. Rufus Peabody on the other side. It's a numbers game next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Check out our new website at vsin.com.
34:45
Front page, WNBA with Tyler Shoemaker, horses with Adam Burke, Johnny Lazarus on the NHL, uh, Stanley Cup Finals, game five, all his best bets, a smattering of everything. My goodness.
34:57
Zach Cohen on his, uh, tennis picks all throughout the, uh, grass season there in England. Hope he didn't have Heather Watson. All of that at vsin.com. Check it out. Um, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
35:09
We're efforting Rufus Peabody. He's in London, so- He is in London. He was- He is, he is in London, England. He tweeted out yesterday, by the way, I don't know if you caught it.
35:16
I know he was doing a lot of tweeting, and he, he, he was thanking Twitter for keeping him entertained on his flight to London. Yes.
35:22
Uh, but you know, like, when people take, like, the picture out, out of the plane window and of, of whatever city they're arriving in? Uh-huh. And 98% of the time you're like, "This was such a waste of a picture."
35:32
Oh, his picture was spectacular. It was amazing. It's amazing of London flying in there. That was a beautiful picture.
35:38
But how often do you see people p- uh, post something like that and you're like, "Why would you take this picture?" Like, it's an airplane window- Yeah... and I can barely tell, like, what city you're arriving in.
35:45
Right over the river. Yeah, that was really cool. Yeah. We get tweets and beatings, but Corbin, uh, breaking news for our very short-lived Heisman bet on Taulia Tagovailoa years ago. [laughs] Oh, Rufus is texting.
35:58
Oh, please, what is he saying? "Yes, one sec," he says. [laughs] There's your update on Rufus. All right, hold on.
36:04
[laughs] Uh, Corbin says our, our, our m- our very short-lived Taulia Tagovailoa, uh, bet on the Heisman years ago. He goes, "Now signed with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the CFL.
36:14
An 0 and 2 start for the, uh, for the team. Could now be the moment where we step back in and v- and bet on him on MV- uh, bet for him." God, I can't speak. "Bet on him for MVP."
36:24
[laughs] Could be a Cinderella story right before our eyes. I love it, Corbin. Uh, the answer is no. Ben Wilson is, is actively trying to get me back into CFL too, and I'm like, "Nah." You used to be a CFL guy. I, I did.
36:35
It was one- Yeah... it was one, one of my summer betting, uh, uh, pleasures before, uh, I would say before COVID hit. Then COVID hit and then moved on from that. Texting with Rufus. He's like, "Skype?" Yeah, Rufus.
36:46
Skype. [laughs] Yeah. Lionel G Williams, "Amazing. Uh, yeah, I had the player who led his team for series in points, rebounds, and assists, and I didn't win. Shaking my head."
36:56
Brian Moranion, uh, with the top five times... Oh, he's talking about the swimming with Drew. He says, "With all those top five times, it makes me wonder," I had this thought too. I was gonna joke about it- Mm...
37:06
when Drew was on. He goes, "Do pools run fast?" Like the difference in clay courts of tennis. I'll even add, like, you know, if there's wind- [laughs] This is, yeah, this is a great point. Yeah...
37:14
wind in track and field. I thought the same thing. I was like, "Is the, was the water light?" [laughs] That's why, that's why I brought up the b- the backstroke thing. I'm like, "Wait, is there like..."
37:22
I, I guess I've never seen the inside of an Olympic swimming arena before. Like, there might as well be green arrows on the top pointing which direction to go, Gil. I don't know.
37:30
Bruce Dobegan, "Can you please ask Drew what fish he has in the aquarium? A friend and I are arguing if it was a guppy or AI." Guppies or AI Aquarium. Is there an aquarium behind him in that shot? See, that's Steven.
37:43
Oh my God, Watson, what happened? Uh, dude, I know. Brutality. Prime time, "Good morning, fellow goobers." He called us, he called us goobers. [laughs] I, I think I dropped goober on the air once or twice. Oh.
37:53
He said, "I had Lively as the top finals rebounder at 12 to one at one shop and 200 to one at another.
37:58
The 200 to one shop offered a 62 to one cash out yesterday, and fortunately I took it and went on to lose the 12 to one position. Sometimes you just get lucky." Yeah, good on him.
38:08
I didn't understand that odd swing after that one game, 'cause it was just, I still felt the handicap was sound if you're gonna get so many minutes of Tatum and, and, and Luka, that it was likely gonna be a, end up being one of those two.
38:21
Of course, I was on the wrong one. Evan Klein, "Wish I would've bet Tatum for corniest post-game interview. Stone cold locked." Oh, see? This is what I'm like, uh, I thought it was really cheesy.
38:31
[laughs] Like, it di- it, didn't it just feel like he was trying to do the Kevin Garnett, like, all over again? What they gonna say now? Yeah.
38:38
Like I, it felt like, it kind of felt like he'd been practicing that for, like, three years, and it, like, came across really scripted.
38:44
I don't, I just- You mean, uh, a, a sort of passive tribute to anything is possible or- Yeah, yeah. Like, it felt like that, but, like, a way worse and cornier version. All right, I need you to make a call.
38:55
Rufus is signed in, but now it's only half a segment. Do we push Rufus back? Let's push Rufus back to the next segment. I'll make the call. Let's push him back to the next segment and push Spore back to the next one.
39:04
Spore, he's right here with us right now. Oh, okay, he's right here now. [laughs] Full on. Well, let's still push Spore back. Maybe we'll do two with Rufus. Yeah, let's do that.
39:10
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is half of the Massey Peabody team, and obviously a bit of a prima donna, 'cause he shows up when he wants to.
39:15
Uh, [laughs] he's one of the co-founders of Unabated, uh, which he of course is, uh, Captain Jack's operation as well. Uh, what else?
39:22
Bet the Process, which he does with Jeff Ma, but all of that is, and I think he would agree with this, is a subheading to he is a professional sports bettor.
39:30
It's Rufus Peabody from London, England, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What are you doing in London? And we were just complimenting your picture from the plane, was awesome. Oh, thanks.
39:40
Uh, I was unfortunately stuck in a middle seat. I booked the flight, like, the day before, and there literally that was the only thing available, so I was just, it was kind of just guesswork.
39:49
It worked out with the picture, but- Wow... I'm, I'm in London. I, I'm actually gonna see our good friend Roxy on Friday. Oh, nice. Um, I'll probably go to Wimbledon.
39:57
I think he's at Royal Ascot right now with his top hat, but I'm, I'm here, um, because of a girl I'm seeing, actually. [laughs] Okay. Well, that's a different show, Rufus. Yeah. We'll get into that another time.
40:07
Hmm, interesting. Wow, you're gonna casual throw in, I'd probably go to Wimbledon. Yeah, we'll see. Is Roxy really wearing a top hat? Is that true? Uh, I, I've seen his pictures from the past from Royal Ascot.
40:19
I think you can find them on Twitter. He, um... Yes. I mean, Roxy's immaculately dressed always. Is a monocle involved as well in this? Oh, yeah. Yeah, okay. Uh, all right, Rufus- Probably, probably.
40:30
[laughs] For, for those who are, for those who are unfamiliar with you, let's start at the beginning.
40:34
Uh, when I first met you many years ago, uh, over a decade ago, you were, you had, you were in a group, a betting group, where you were the, the guy at the computer, and, uh, you know, those guys were veteran bettors as well, and so it was one dynamic.
40:49
Explain to us the betting group that you have now. Let's start there. Okay. The betting group I have now is a little bit... It's a s- it's a more slimmed down operation.
40:58
It's, it's myself, my brother, and Taylor, and then technically Trayne, who was involved. He was the kind of ringleader at the beginning, although now he's mostly just doing real estate stuff. Um, and he's got like...
41:11
He gets a tiny sliver, and he's in the, lives in the Cayman Islands and can get us, we have some accounts that we can get outside the US through that, so, so, you know, he's, uh, participates very, very small amount, but, um, is still technically in the operation.
41:25
And then, uh, so, so Taylor, um, is the best, the best decision I've ever made in my career was bringing on Taylor. Um, he's, he's, has a developer background.
41:38
He's created the bones and done most of the stuff for the college basketball simulation framework we have, and, and basically helped a lot on, um, on a lot of the dev stuff that, that's necessary for, for what we do.
41:50
And then my brother's our head trader, Tom, and so he's essentially like an account manager. Um, he's,
41:58
uh, you know, when, when you're a winning sports bettor, you get limited at places, and so a lot of it's finding betting partnerships, dealing with, um, dealing with people, like vetting people.
42:11
Um, there's a lot of logistics involved. He's kind of like, he's got his fingers in a lot of different cookie jars, to be honest. Um, so that's, that's the operation.
42:20
We're, we're sort of a small centralized operation and very large decentralized. That's how we get down the money we need to. We, we, we have betting partners.
42:27
We plug into trading operations, you know, in Europe and in the US. That's kind of, that's, that's- Okay... there's the executive summary, I guess. That is the, that is a beautiful executive summary.
42:38
When you were last on on the Mega Pod on football season, you were, you were telling us about your, how you were full on into college basketball, which you just alluded to, uh, moments ago, and that's definitely a sport that you're, that you're, uh, successful in now.
42:51
But you're still, would you agree, you're still first and foremost, like if I had to associate with you, you with a sport, it's still golf, right? Isn't it?
42:58
Well, associating me with a sport would be golf, yes, but I think as a group now, I think college basketball's overtaken that.
43:04
And just 'cause the amount of volume we're able to do in college basketball, if I told you, you'd be c- pretty s- it, it, it's astounding. Yeah. So we think- I, I believe you did share, yeah...
43:13
there's just so many games.
43:16
So three years ago, and we'll get to this US Open that just, uh, concluded on Sunday, but three years ago you came on a Numbers Game when we were still at the South Point, and it was the PGA Championship, 2021, and you had Mito Pereira.
43:30
That's two years ago. Two years ago? It was 2022, I believe. Was it? Yeah. Okay. 2022, my bad. You're right. 2022. It was at Tulsa, right? Yeah. Yeah, Tulsa. Um- Yeah...
43:38
and he came into the last round, uh, three shots up. He came into the last hole one shot up.
43:44
He came into the last, the, the last hole one shot up, and then by the way, at 17, people forget he missed this birdie putt that could have put him up two. Mm-hmm.
43:52
Then he immediately puts the driver into the creek, and then he just scrambles all over the place. He doesn't end up in the, uh, in the finals, excuse me, in the playoff. Justin Thomas beats Wills Alatorre.
44:02
What was your number on Mito that year? And correct me if I'm wrong, you decided not to hedge then? I, I don't remember what our number was pre-tournament. I know we bet him at 300 to one to win 300,000. So
44:18
w- we, we didn't hedge. Should we have hedged? You know, the, it spawned this whole discussion. But, um, I actually, I, I actually don't know the answer in, in, in a vacuum.
44:31
Um, well, in a vacuum, you c- i- it's easier to, to, to tell, but, but we have this whole other portfolio of other golfers, and so it becomes a much more complex optimization problem rather than just saying, do we hedge the Mito bet when we had positions on a lot of the other guys up there, like Cam Young too.
44:48
Yeah, I'm curious if then if you were less, less, uh, what's the way to say this? Not- I had, I considered hedging a lot less back then. That's what I, that's what I'm getting at.
44:59
'Cause I remember you were sort of unabashedly unapologetic about not, not, not in an arrogant kind of way- Mm-hmm... but you were very comfortable in not hedging then.
45:08
Let's fast-forward after the break to this US Open, where it was not so much a having a 300 to one long shot, it was not that at all. It was protecting themselves against what could have been a pretty massive loss.
45:20
How did Rufus think it through with his partners? And then what are his hedging philosophies in general? Can you apply things in general? Rufus Peabody next on a Numbers Game at Vsiz.
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