Search
Login
Sign Up
Jun 24, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 24, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 24, 2025
00:00
35:45
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you. Is it Tuesday?
0:11
No, it's Wednesday. Good We- no, it was Tuesday. Oh, it's Tuesday. That was right the first time. Yep. Yes, good Tuesday morning to you. It is a numbers game right here.
0:17
VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, vsin.com, I already said that one, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:28
I'm off to a flying start this morning. Let's just start over. All right. Let's just start over. Sorry. Ready? Rewind the clock 45 seconds. Okay. [laughs] Uh, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin on the show today.
0:37
Mark Borchert talking, uh, Major League Baseball with us. Tyler Shoemaker with, uh, some WNBA. How about that? That's right. It's gotta be, it's gots to be June.
0:45
We'll ask him, uh, if there's any middle schoolers he's dunked on recently or anything like that. That's, that's right. We always- I did not get any dunking videos, uh- I wanna see a dunk video from him. Yeah. You know?
0:54
Uh, Drew Dinsick will join us, hour number two, from the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast. We'll talk NBA with him, looking forward. Uh, see how he, uh, did with OKC.
1:04
Obviously, we know he did well, but we'll look at NBA moving forward. We do have another trade yesterday, which we'll talk about. And tennis, does he have any more grass court tennis today?
1:13
Uh, and then Tim Lawson, the host of the Better Life podcast, our buddy Tim Lawson and Megapod historian, uh, will come in and, uh, wants to talk about, a little bit about soccer.
1:22
He's in town, so we said, "Let, let's have Tim in." He wants to talk about, uh, betting international soccer and rec plus bettors. Ready for this, Kelly?
1:31
Trusting AP slots too much, trusting advantage play slots too much. Ooh, love it. All right. All right. Looking forward to that. Talk with Tim about that, uh, coming up on the show.
1:39
Tim Lawson al- always a great, uh, chat. Uh, and we were- we don't get to have him in town very often.
1:44
Always, and a guy who really sort of isolated the fact that there are sports bettors, there are casino bettors, and then there's this group in the middle that isn't really quite served, which is the rec plus bettor. Mm.
1:57
Um, recreational plus. So, uh, Tim did a great job with that. We'll have him in a little later on. Derek Stevens is behind us in the, uh, in the sports book, but, uh, you know, hey, sorry, we're booked.
2:07
I am very confused. So- There's a, there's a lot going on behind us today [laughs] If Derek walks in and we're like, "Sorry, Derek, Tyler Shoemaker and the WNBA. Sorry, can't have you in here."
2:15
[laughs] Um, all right, couple, a few things yesterday. One, let's just start with this. Uh, NBA draft less than 48 hours away. Now, this is not Kelly and I originating golf or tennis. This is a draft, like with the NFL.
2:31
Uh, what we're doing in the NFL is a much more robust thing, but it is essentially culling together experts' intel. It's an information-based thing. This is not a handicapping thing, obviously.
2:41
With the NBA draft, it is that distilled to a very simple, "Oh, there's, there's," first of all, not nearly as much available on these betting-wise, but we have just a couple voices that we necessarily listen to on this.
2:55
Yeah. So I've just added, I've, I have a few bets. Kelly has a few more than I do. I've got Kon Knueppel, top five pick at even money. I did add him to go exactly fourth at plus 150.
3:06
Um, you even alluded to this yesterday when, when you said it's probably either fourth or nothing in the top five, and that, and that seems to be corroborated by some of the experts. I bet it as well.
3:15
You got a much better number than I did, Gil, 'cause I saw that starting to crash yesterday afternoon. Oh, it was, it was a varied price. I saw plus 150 all the way to minus 130 offshore at bookmaker- Yep... on that.
3:27
Uh, and then Noah Benga, the Frenchman, over nine and a half. Again, I'm laying some, some juice there at minus 161, but that's based on the intel of, of, you know, the experts.
3:36
Again, this is nothing that we are, have researched, uh, with, with great, great, uh, depth besides hearing a few people and saying, "Well, this, I think this is a thing and I think this is a bet."
3:47
So those are my only three. You? Yeah, I've got, I've got a fair amount, and, and yeah, like you said, I think that was well said. Look at you.
3:52
There is a, uh, th- this is even very different from the NFL draft for me 'cause this is a lot more tailing people I respect.
3:59
There's a, a- as, if you watched the show yesterday, there's guys like Rafael Barlow who [laughs] are spending the entire season just watching- Entire season...
4:06
getting ready for the NBA draft and not doing anything with college basketball or NBA per se, so. And by the way, we should mention the names, Luke Swain, Vegas Refund- Yep...
4:13
Chris Felike, our buddy, all on, uh, on sort of inside tracks on this stuff.
4:17
Yeah, so a lot of this stuff really coming from them and then, you know, some of my own insight as well, but not nearly as much as what we do with the NFL draft it feels like. Yeah.
4:23
So, uh, Kon Knueppel did top five, even money. I added a little bit to that yesterday at minus 150, but then also bet fourth, uh, for him to be the fourth pick at even money.
4:34
Um, like we were talking about, Gil got a better number, but that was crashing pretty quick yesterday. This one, uh, Jeremiah Fear is going fifth. I, this was one I talked to Zach Cohen a bit about.
4:44
I know he brought it up yesterday on VSIN Prime Time. This was one I was kinda leaning towards with the Jazz possibly making a play, uh, at, in the, at the point guard position I think is really live.
4:55
So over three to one, I think, I, I, I think that one's still up in the air a little bit.
5:00
I'm okay with some of these picks three through eight, Gil, making a little bit more of a longer shot play on because I think if there's, you know, we, if there's one change we don't see coming, then all of a sudden these dogs are a little bit more live.
5:12
So played him fifth pick, uh, plus 350. Cedric Coward, uh, top 10 pick, p- uh, four to one. Derek Queen over 10 and a half. I probably would not play that now. That was one of my first bets.
5:23
Uh, there has been, since the Kevin Durant trade, though, there's been a lot of linking, uh, with Q- with Queen to Phoenix, so that's probably one I would avoid now.
5:32
Uh, Carter Bryant under 11 and a half, and Collin Murray-Boyles under 14 and a half. So in on all of those. That Murray-Boyles one seems to be picking up a lot of steam here recently.
5:42
And we've had a strange relationship with these draft props in Vegas 'cause they go up at a couple shops, and then just as quickly as they're up, they're down. Yeah, I got so excited yesterday when I saw- Yeah...
5:51
a bunch of draft positions posted at MGM, [laughs] and then it was hours later, "Oh, they're, they're gone." Yeah. So, uh, and then what? Tonight, I mean, they still have the 24-hour rule in effect, right?
6:00
The, the Vegas- 'Cause that's a Nevada thing... the Nevada 24-hour rule, right? They're, they have to be taken down by mid... It used to be, we used to think it was midnight, but it's 24 hours, so by 5:00 PM today.
6:10
Right. So this is probably all of our bets, or all of my [laughs] Probably It's probably all of my bets. Yeah. Uh, Drew Dincic will have some more, uh, to talk about on this- Yeah, he's got thoughts. I know, yep...
6:19
a little later on in the show. He's got thoughts. Uh, as we try to be, uh, as thorough with this as possible, 'cause we've had on a few people now talking NBA draft. But again, not quite the NFL draft.
6:29
Um, but Drew, a little later on, talking about his plays.
6:32
Uh, I've tried to resist talking about, uh, AL MVP, but, uh, after what happened yesterday, I can't really resist it quite anymore 'cause I think it's worth a brief discussion.
6:41
Cal Raleigh of the Mariners with two more homers yesterday. Let's go. Not one, two. Uh, Jason Weingarten immediately texts me. He goes, "He's in Bonds territory." I said, "Easy, buddy." [laughs] Easy.
6:52
This, this was one- Easy... where we were like, "Dude, what are we doing? Are we sure?"
6:55
Last week, and I talked about, uh, brought up AL MVP, and I'm sitting there kind of looking at some of the numbers, and I'm like, "Huh, this Cal Raleigh character's really, uh, climbing up, uh, towards Judge."
7:04
Well, let me, let me just sort of put it in context. So when you go to things like a slash line, right? Your average, your OBP, and your slugging percentage.
7:12
Um, Aaron Judge is still dwarfing Cal Raleigh in this department. Um, you know, right now Judge 367 batting average, 468 OBP, 734 slugging. Cal Raleigh 278 against Judge's 367 batting average.
7:30
383 OBP against Judge's 468, and a 665 slugging percentage against Aaron Judge's 734. So not particularly close in any of those categories. Um, right now Aaron Judge minus 2,000 to win American League MVP.
7:45
Cal Raleigh at plus 550. Everybody else [laughs] starting with Bobby Witt Jr., 80 to 1 or longer. Um, and so, but here's the thing, Cal Raleigh hit his 31st and 32nd home runs of the season yesterday.
8:00
Uh, he's got 68 RBI. Both of those are better than Judge's 28 and 62. And so the question then becomes,
8:09
can Cal Raleigh get to a point in the homers department, and the RBI, but let's just say the homers specifically, 'cause that's the...
8:16
I don't know if you know this, Kelly, uh, not only do, uh, chicks love the long ball, but so do voters- [laughs]... perhaps love the long ball. So at what point does this actually become a thing?
8:25
In other words, is it worth you betting Cal Raleigh, even at five to one, even though you couldn't have gotten him, you could've gotten him at better, obviously, before today.
8:33
And I'm not sure that it is because, uh, you have to ask yourself, what's the number? What is the number? If he hits 65 of these, is that enough? Well, probably. Yeah. But Aaron Judge plays for the Yankees.
8:44
They lead the division. I know it's teetering. It's only a two-game lead. Cal Raleigh and the Mariners, four and a half, I think it is, behind the Astros now. They're in, they're in a wild card scrum.
8:53
Would that factor into a voter's decision? Um, but right now Cal Raleigh, uh, let, let's actually take the Bondsian thing that Weingarten said. So they played 77 games. He's at 32 homers.
9:04
So i-i he's, if he hits one, if he hits four in the next four games, he would have 36 halfway through the season, and that would actually be Bondsian [laughs] when it comes to, to the record of 73.
9:16
That would obviously pace out to 72. Um, but Cal Raleigh's, his, his run here, right, past 30 games, he's hitting 331 batting average. 17 homers in the last 30 games, 36 RBI.
9:30
Um, and as we mentioned, for the season, not quite those numbers, but he does lead in homers, RBI. So anyway, is, is five to one worth a play on Cal Raleigh? Uh, I'm not as bullish as some people.
9:40
'Cause I know we, we live in a betting world where everybody races the latest thing they've seen to jump on a number. Is it realistic in the end?
9:47
Well, all it would take is a cold streak for this to, this whole conversation to go away. And, a-and I mean, we- well laid out by you. It looks like, I mean, for, for me, the, the not the biggest baseball guy, right?
9:58
Like you just said, it's just gonna come down, like he'd have to overwhelm him with home runs, right? Yes. Like, i-it, we'd have to be- Yes...
10:05
in the 60s with, with, with Raleigh and talking about Judge being at 50- And Judge would have to be way beyond... or something like that. Correct, yes. I agree. What it does make me think though is, all right, well,
10:15
is Shohei really that safe in the NL? That, that's the one where I think there's a bet somewhere, which I said last, uh- Yeah... last time we did this. You did, yep. Yeah.
10:23
I think- Yeah, you said he wasn't completely safe.
10:24
Yeah, 'cause I don't know what kind of pitching season he's gonna have, and then if that's not a factor, you know, will, will voters use that as, "Well, we're gonna give it to him every other year, so let's use this one not to give it to him."
10:33
I, uh, we didn't get time to ta- talk about that more last week. I'm still so in that camp. Like, just seeing, especially betting awards and how much we talk about it, especially over the past few years. Yeah.
10:44
Man, I, these voters will... Uh, it just feels like they look for excuses like that, right?
10:48
Like, "Oh, let's, let's look for an excuse to give it to somebody else this year 'cause we know this is gonna happen," even though nothing's promised.
10:54
Well, even broader than that, I think what we've learned is we're way too, dare I call us sophisticated? Mm. You understand what I'm saying. Mm-hmm. We're way too in the weeds. Yeah. We really are.
11:06
And so, and most of these voters, yes, is there an analytic r- analytics representation in all of the sports? There is. But is it predominant in the voting pool? It really doesn't seem to be. Yeah.
11:16
Whether it's baseball [laughs] sadly, or the National Football League. Mm-hmm. And again, this, the Spencer Strider thing, and I know he blew up late in the season multiple times, so it wasn't a thing after all.
11:26
But he wasn't even a finalist in the end, right? This'll be fun to watch though this year. Yeah, it will be. Let's go Mariners. Go Cal Raleigh. I watched some of that game last night. Cal short for? I have no idea.
11:36
Caleb. Obviously. As opposed to Cal Ripken, which I think was, Calvert, I believe was his name, something like that. Not Calvin? I don't, I think it's Calvert. You have to do a little research. Calvert? I don't know.
11:43
Check that out, Cory. Okay. All right. Let, let's do some research. We'll, we'll do a numbers game investigation over the break. Coming back with an NBA trade and more next.
11:50
[upbeat music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
12:01
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
12:09
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
12:15
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
12:22
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
12:31
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
12:40
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
12:52
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on our numbers game live from Circa, Gil Alexander. Kelly Midland, everybody. Kelly Midlon. Sup? Uh, we get tweets to beat the book.
13:09
Real Nicks, "I wish the other three major sports leagues would realize the NFL has cornered the market on draft coverage. Who the hell," who in the hell, he says. I wanna get that right.
13:17
"Who in the hell needs two nights of NBA draft coverage when after pick 25, only about 10% of the names are recognizable?" Real Nicks, we s- we've said the same thing here. We've said the same thing.
13:27
I, I'm not even, I'm not fighting you on it. No. I'm not fighting. We've said it. 10% are recognizable- The-... and 10% will make it three years into the NBA. The fact that they think that- Probably less than that...
13:35
they need a second night for the second round is, oh, it's brutal. And Brian- I, and does this say more about, I don't know, the arrogance of a sport, or that there's just nothing going on? Mm, a little of both.
13:46
Yeah, I think it's a little of both. Brian Schaefer, "Why not put a unit on Cal Raleigh?" By the way, Cal Ripken was Calvin, I'm told. Uh, "Why not put a unit on Cal Raleigh to win MVP?
13:54
Judge has a foot injury that he plays through. I know you can't assume injury, but with five to one odds, it only takes an injury to shift those odds." Also true, right? Could it happen? Yeah.
14:04
But I just, I, I was just, I wanted to talk about it just because I hear everybody at the same time. Once he hit that home, the second homer last night, everybody's like, "Oh my God, Cal Raleigh, MVP."
14:12
It's like, okay, let's actually look at the numbers. Um, can I just talk about something non-sports betting before we get to the NBA stuff? Yeah.
14:19
I, I'm gonna root for Cal though, 'cause I got my no p- my no bet on Aaron Judge Triple Crown. Remember that from like- Oh, the-... a month ago? Yeah, the Triple Crown looks a little doubtful. Yeah. Yeah. Let's go Cal.
14:28
That, that's gonna be tough for him. Down four in homers, down six in ribbies. Played one m- or Yankees played one more game than the Mariners have. Um, okay.
14:37
This, I don't know why this story fascinates me so much, Kelly. I, I kind of do, but it, I, it has nothing to do with betting. Well, it does have something to do with betting.
14:44
Um, are you familiar with this guy that used to be on Daily Wager on ESPN? Uh, Michael Schwimmer or Michael Schwimer? I'm not sure how you pronounce his name. He was on for like a minute. No. He was on for a few months.
14:56
I remember there being something on gambling Twitter where like his handicapping proclamations, of course, uh, exceeded his actual performance, and so people, you know, the- No...
15:06
the police folks of gambling Twitter went after him, correctly, by the way. Anyway. Can you tell how many people lie on gambling Twitter? [laughs] I know, right?
15:13
So this guy, I'll, I'll go with Michael Schwimmer as the, as the pronunciation. He, by the way, he was a ballplayer. He was, he played for the Phillies for a bit. Okay. He had a cup of coffee with the Phillies.
15:23
Um, then he went to Daily Wager at ESPN. And after Daily Wager, he ended up starting this organization called, you ready for this now? Uh, this organization called Big League Advance,
15:36
and they had a Big League Advance fund of hundreds of millions of dollars. Big League Advantage, it looks like.
15:44
Uh, Big League Ad- well, the, yes, Big League Advantage, but the fund was called the Big League Advance Fund. Okay. Gotcha. Correct. Big League Advantage, Big League Advance Fund. BLA.
15:53
And, uh, what this, essentially what this company did was they lent money to ballplayers, up-and-coming minor league ballplayers, or disadvantaged ballplayers that didn't have a lot of money, and essentially made a deal, "Hey, we'll give you this money up front for, you know, the, y- you, for your [smacks lips] expenses now when you need the money, but the, the deal is that we then get a percentage of all of your future earnings if you hit it big in MLB."
16:24
And so, you know, Elly De La Cruz of the Reds is part of this. He, he has to give a percentage of his career earnings to Big League Advance. This is what Schwimmer started.
16:34
Isn't this something like agents have been doing in the Caribbean and stuff forever, though? Well, this is, this was done a little differently. This is, so b- basically, let me get to the point here.
16:43
But by the way, Fernando, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s part of this as well, which I don't really understand, 'cause his dad played big league ball. Fernando Tatis Sr.- Right. Yeah... famously hitting four homers in a game.
16:52
Anyway, I was wondering all these years, I was like, "Wow, this, it feels," uh, now, uh, legally is one thing.
17:00
It feels a little creepy to me, and it has always felt a little creepy to me 'cause you're, y- it does feel like you're taking advantage, right?
17:08
But you are, someone could say, "Well, but they're also providing a service," right? There's two sides to the, you know, there's two opinions on this. Sure. So finally, yesterday, Fernando Tatis Jr.
17:18
has filed a complaint. He has sued, he is going to sue BLA, uh, Big League Advan- Advantage, for, you ready for this?
17:25
"Exploitative predatory business practices which shamelessly push illegal loans on young, vulnerable athletes, most from economically disadvantaged Latin American countries," unquote, according to the press release.
17:37
Tatis has a 14-year, $340 million deal with the Padres that he signed in 2021, and he, according to BLA, has to give them 8 to 10%. I'm not sure. The reporting is somewhere between 8 to- Wow... 10% of that, lifetime.
17:50
So finally, he has come and said, "I'm not doing this anymore." So it, it's fascinating to me only because, um, which side do you fall on? Is, is Tatis' suit, in fact, correct?
18:02
That, 'cause he used the word that it's a loan, but it's really not a loan. He's saying it's an illegal loan, pushing illegal loans on young, vulnerable athletes, but it's not really a loan.
18:11
Because a loan is, no matter how much I give you, Kelly Bidlin, when you're starting your career- Even if you don't make it, you have to pay back your loan. Mm-hmm. That's not what they're doing. Yeah.
18:18
If you don't make the major leagues, you don't owe them a penny after that. They gave you the money, that's it.
18:23
So they are essentially operating like a venture capitalist does in Silicon Valley, which is for every Google and Skype or eBay that they invest in successfully, there's also hundreds of companies that fail. Mm-hmm.
18:36
Mm-hmm. So they're just hoping the winners overcome the losers. It's all a ma- it's all mathematics for them. So I don't know. It'll be interesting to see how this ends up getting adjudicated. That's fascinating.
18:45
That is fascinating. Yeah. It is, I mean, I, I feel like we've heard about, like, you know, ba- backroom deals like this, stuff going on forever in sports.
18:53
But, like, when you have a company that's up front about it, you'd, you'd, you'd- Yeah... like to think things are on the up and up, so.
18:58
I'm, I'm curious what, what listeners think, 'cause to me there are two sides to this. Yeah. Like, I get it, it feels unseemly, but a loan it is not- Mm-hmm... technically. So I don't know. We'll see.
19:07
Uh, this deal was done out in the open. Another NBA deal yesterday, Jrue Holiday goes to the Blazers. Goes back to the Blazers. Remember, he was part of the Dame Lillard, uh, take- That's right...
19:18
when Dame went from Portland to Milwaukee. Jrue goes to the Blazers for Anfernee Simon, and this makes, to me, Kelly, from a, from a Celtics standpoint, makes all the sense in the world.
19:32
Because the Celtics end up, uh, unloading a, a whole bunch of salary. Holiday was owed $72 million in 2026, '27, and '27, '28.
19:43
The deal saves Boston $40 million in luxury tax payments next season, and that's according to ESPN's Bobby Marks, and the, uh, the Celtics get way younger by almost a decade when they go from Jrue to Simons.
19:56
And Simons will be avail- you know, be eligible for an extension at some point, especially in a year where you know you're not gonna have Jayson Tatum, and there's other injuries now, clearly, all, all throughout the Eastern Conference.
20:06
This perhaps makes the Celtics that much more relevant. I get it. I have no idea what the Blazers are doing. [laughs] Please explain that to me. I really wish I could, Gil.
20:16
This was one, uh- And Boston also gets two second round picks, I should add. Yeah, correct. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, somehow they're getting draft compensation as well. I know. Um, look, this is... I, it, it's great.
20:27
Look, the Boston Celtics were gonna have to make major salary moves, and this is not, they're not done.
20:32
Like, there are going to be several more moves likely made by the Boston Celtics to reshape this team to bu- to bo- to both cut s- uh, salary, but also to try to stay competitive, right?
20:42
And this is the perfect move for that, right? You get Simons in here. Um, look, he's... The other part about this, Jrue Holiday still had, like, four years left on his contract. You're paying him big time money.
20:53
So you ship him out to Portland, and he's making way more than Simons. Simons only has one y- deal, uh, one year left on his deal.
20:59
So you can reassess later in this season even to is this a long-term play for us or not, uh, with Simons?
21:07
A- and if it's just a kind of st- you know, stopgap play for while Tatum's out while you reshuffle this roster, I, I think it's, I think it's a great move by Boston.
21:17
Um, it sounds like Porziņģis could very well be on his way out t- out too possibly. Yeah. Watch that for the next couple days. Uh, Gil, I was left scratching my head too at the portal insight. I think- Yeah...
21:27
I mean, look, they have some great defenders now on this tea- uh, team. For m- people that didn't watch the Blazers last year, uh, Toumani Camara has turned into a, one of the top perimeter defenders in the NBA.
21:38
A young guy that they were able to get, um, in a bunch of the trades that they made. Donovan Clingan, you may remember, uh, coming in there last year, uh, playing well defensively. Now you add Jrue Holiday.
21:48
There's a lot of nice defensive pieces. But, [laughs] but Gil, you were asking the same question when we were talking about the Durant trade yesterday of- Yeah...
21:56
where does this really put you in the pecking order of the- Sorry... Western Conference?
21:59
And now you are significantly financially en- obligated to pay Jrue Holiday, and what, what, this puts you in the play-in sm- situation? I, I don't know what they're doing.
22:10
Like, the last thing you do is take on money, and that's what they've done here. And then they could say, "Oh, Jrue will mentor Scoot," and they could say all that that they want to. Right. Yeah, sure.
22:17
But it's like, you know, come on, what are we doing here?
22:18
A- and, and you could, you could argue that between Scoot and Shaedon Sharpe and Simons, there's too many young guys in the backcourt that you need to get playing time for. B- but, but still- [laughs]...
22:29
that's, [laughs] I don't know that that justifies- Hey... adding the salary of Jrue Holiday. And you didn't even mention Deni Avdija. Didn't even mention Deni Avdija. That's right.
22:37
Blatant antisemitism, ladies and gentlemen. [laughs] Right in front of me. Um- I'm sure Ian's going nuts in the back too.
22:42
Like, I love Jrue Holiday, but Jrue Holiday is also not the same pl- we saw that very evidently this year. He is not the same guy that he was just two years ago, four years ago in the NBA.
22:52
The real question is, does it make you wanna bet the Celtics now? Um, no, but I, it makes me have my eyes on them a lot more here- Yeah... for, for what, what's gonna happen the next few weeks.
23:01
Rem- I, like, there are teams, like the Oklahoma City Thunder very well might not make a single move this [laughs] off-season, right?
23:07
Like it is, they could very well be running back the exact same, uh, roster next season. There are teams, though, like the Boston Celtics and others, that are going to be extremely active here over the next couple weeks.
23:19
I think, I know we're running a little short on time here, but, like, the Lakers and Nuggets are maybe two of the most fascinating teams for out west for me to watch.
23:25
'Cause what are you gonna do in Denver to put more weapons around Nikola Jokić? Can you do anything? And the Lakers, we know what the Luka Dončić formula is.
23:35
He needs a, he needs a rim protector and a lob threat, and he needs three-point help. Go out there and get it for him. We'll talk more about it. Didn't mean to run you into a wall. No, you're fine.
23:43
Coming back, uh, also some baseball with Mark Borchardt, some WNBA with Tyler Shoemaker. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
23:56
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
24:02
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
24:08
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
24:14
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
24:21
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
24:30
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
24:37
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
24:47
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter this football season? VSiN Pro can help you start strong.
24:58
Our new NFL betting guide drops next week, and early access means a better shot at spotting value in futures markets before the lines move. Somebody's got homework today. Oh, come on, Gil.
25:08
Now's the perfect time to join with our football special, just $175 for full VSiN Pro access from today through the Super Bowl. That's every sport we cover every day at a special early bird price.
25:18
The sooner you sign up, the more you get out of it. You'll be first in line for our NFL betting guide, your playbook for the season packed with team previews, power ratings, and season-long best bets.
25:27
Plus, you'll get a daily best bets email from our expert hosts and guests, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, live and on-demand shows via the VSiN WATCH app, full access to vsin.com's analytics tools and pro systems.
25:36
Here's what you do. You go to vsin.com/subscribe now. You lock in the football special for just $175. That's vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets at BeatingTheBook, always appreciate it. This is, uh, Jason, Jason McKinney.
25:52
Uh, "The cooler strikes again. I went with the Diamondbacks for June. Yes, that was a snake pun also. When I win the free entry, I'll provide the burner phone. I promise, Life360 won't be tracking you." [laughs] Uh, B.
26:04
Moriannan, uh, "I think there needs to be a protest that for our Independence Day, Drew is spending it surrounded by French liquid focused on a British sport.
26:13
The American thing to do is a trip to Chicago for NASCAR and bourbon." I'll pass that on to Drew. Yeah. Very anti-American.
26:20
Fake Follower says, "Gil, could you ask your advanced slot guest coming up if he distinguishes between," I, I don't know what you're saying here, uh, "VIPs and MGs," maybe?
26:30
"Video lottery terminal," oh, "video lottery terminals," pardon me, "used in New York versus random number generators used in Vegas? Love the show. Thank you." Sorry, I didn't understand your, uh, your acronyms there.
26:40
Yes, I will ask him that momentarily. And then Michael Sacks, "I'm taking Friday afternoon off. I'm gonna be a Gillionaire," he says. Like it. A lot of response to the, uh, the, the contest coming up.
26:50
Free entry, who wouldn't like that? Free entry for Circa, both contests, Survivor and Millions.
26:56
Drew Dins is kind enough to join us for, uh, segment number two here, uh, from the LBC courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
27:02
Um, Drew, by the way, your football, your NFL, before we talk NBA draft here, just real quick, NFL sort of handicapping, when does that begin for you?
27:11
Well, you, I get into NFL [clears throat] after, uh, after I spend the Fourth of July- [laughs]... watching British tennis, drinking French liquid, floating in an inner tube on the Russian River. Oh, there you go.
27:23
There you go. Best guy. Not a, not a joke. That's where you'll be able to find me [laughs] on July 4th this year. Um- Maybe doing a little free diving too, Gil. Doesn't know if we'll have enough time. [laughs] Oh, no.
27:32
Not up there, man. Not the Russian River. Too many sharks. [laughs] No, no, no. No, thank you. No, definitely not. They're in the Red Triangle up there, buddy. [laughs] Um, I will go to the beach though for sure.
27:40
Um, but, uh, the, um, uh, but yeah, NFL sincere- sincerely handicap gets going like around July 10th.
27:48
Uh, I'll probably put out the grid, uh, with all the situational, um, the situational schedule matrix, um, probably like July 10th-ish.
27:57
Uh, and then our preview series on the Deep Dive with Andy is gonna get, uh, uh, get going probably around the middle of July as well. So, um, yeah, exci- excited to do it. We got way analytical last year.
28:08
We're gonna do that again. Try to be a little bit more granular about how we're coming up with our ratings 'cause we're not just, you know, kind of spitballing it. We're actually using data to get there.
28:16
So, um, yeah, fired up for that. Cool. Okay. Um, let's get to the NBA draft tomorrow night, round one. Uh, ESPN going with a, a televised round two. I guess they, uh, they get the, the Body Fitness, uh,
28:30
alternative programming is what they've, uh, X'd out to do round two live. But round one- Cornhole championships? Cornhole championships, that kind of thing. Yeah. Round one tomorrow night.
28:38
We can bet on this, at least to some extent in the state of Nevada, but elsewhere you can bet on this. Um, what have you bet so far? What do you think you know? Uh, a, a good chance Flagg goes one. [laughs] Okay.
28:53
Let's start there. [laughs] Yes. Thanks, Drew. Uh, I'm gonna- Good appearance. I'm gonna... [laughs] Catch you next week. [laughs] I'm gonna slot, I'm gonna slot this kid from Rutgers, Dylan Harper.
29:02
Wow, that was really getting bold. Um, yeah. Yeah, wow. Okay. I'm gonna slot Dylan Harper to, to the Spurs. Uh, that feels, feels pretty solid. Feels pretty good. [laughs] Um- Now what? But, uh, no Yeah...
29:14
the draft, you know, everybody kind of knows this I think by now, but the draft starts at 3:00. Um, betting market high, high confidence right now that VJ Edgecombe is gonna go three.
29:23
Um, the birdies in the Edgecombe camp are not as confident. Uh, they were kind of hoping and expecting to get some sort of commitment/promise from Philadelphia over the weekend and did not.
29:34
Um, and so there is either some sort of surprise at foot with what Philadelphia ultimately is going to do, or they are waiting till the absolute last minute to see if they can affect a trade.
29:46
And really kinda that's the story of this draft in my opinion, which is picks three through eight really, um, the order of the teams does not, and the needs on those teams do not really fit the kind of correct order of s- this, you know, kind of talent, right?
30:04
Interesting. Hmm. So you have this funny deal where like the Philadelphia would be best served taking the guy who's like the seventh or eighth, eighth most talented, and they can't really do that at three.
30:13
[laughs] So they, you know, like that, that's sort of the situation in the wh- as you go down the whole way.
30:18
So there's, uh, you know, there's a ton of friction, so to speak, in terms of the order of the teams and the talent level of the players, which is making things tricky.
30:28
And there's been from my, my, you know, from my, um, intelligence at least, there's been a little bit of a, um, kinda soft market for trading, right?
30:37
Like there's nothing, you know, the, there's, there's no kind of easy way to grease the wheels here so that the teams are in the right order.
30:44
So, um, right now it kinda feels to me like the eight are gonna pick in the order they are now, um, just because there's no, there's no wink, wink, nod, nod, handshake, if this guy's available we'll make a trade deal that I've heard of so far.
30:56
Um, and Philly at three sticking and picking VJ, okay, fine. Um, I would put it at maybe like 60% chance that's what happens. Um, in that world, Charlotte I think almost certainly takes Khan four.
31:09
Um, and in the surprise world where the Sixers Didn't really ever intend to take VJ. I think Kon would be their likely target. So for me, it's a VJ/Kon three-four in some order, right?
31:22
And so I, I have a decent amount of Kon exactly four placed. Uh, and then I have, um, a lot of Kon under five and a half in my book. Um, I think- Wow, that's exactly what Kelly and I have. Let's go.
31:34
Kon under un- you know, top five, and then Kon exactly fourth. Would you still bet that now? That was, yeah. Um- Kon plus 110 fourth, I'm seeing. Ooh, that's way down. Yes, yes. Wow. You'd still bet it? Yeah.
31:45
Okay, so- Wow... let's, but let's, I, I... Oh, oh, oh, to go fourth? Yeah. Not top four? Yeah, yeah. Oh, got it. To go fourth.
31:51
See, I, I think, yeah, I think that there's a small EV there, but, uh, surely kind of finding more fun ways to bet that. Like, there are some markets of the exact top four correct.
32:04
Taking VJ/Kon three-four, and then Kon/VJ three-four to me makes sense 'cause those are both some, you know, those are both decent-ish prices.
32:13
Um, but, uh, I'll be some- I'll be, I'll be sincerely surprised if the Hornets could take Kon and don't, is kinda where, um, my head is at.
32:22
And then in that world where they, you know, they, they did a, a wonderful job snowing me personally, uh, I would then very much hope that Utah saves the day [laughs] and takes Kon, uh, so that I'm not holding the bag there.
32:35
Um, but, uh- We should probably say his last name, by the way, Kon Knieppel, for those who don't know. Yeah, yeah. Knieppel. Yeah. Knieppel, yep, KK. Um, so yeah, I mean, for me it's VJ/Kon in some order three-four.
32:45
Uh, Utah Jazz I don't have strong intelligence, but I will say that Ace Bailey did turn them down, uh, as far as working out. And, um, the Ace Bailey kinda conversation is worth having very briefly here.
32:57
His, his, his entire conduct through this, um, process, to me has been we're trying to point him to a team where he can be the high usage offensive player, which means we don't want him in Philly, we don't want him in Charlotte.
33:10
Right. Um, and maybe he just doesn't wanna be in Utah for lifestyle reasons. Who knows? But whatever the case is- Hello, Wizards. Yeah, I, I think, I think this has been engineered, uh, to point him to six.
33:21
Um, and I have a lot of, uh, kind of longer prices for darts, uh, on, uh, Ace to go exactly sixth. Um, Jazz/Pelicans are both tough for me to read. I know that they're both in the big market.
33:34
I know that they're both in the point guard market. Um, and at one point the Pelicans were the likely landing spot for Fears, at least according to Fears' dad.
33:42
Um, and then all of a sudden communication kinda stopped, and I think it's because the Pelicans don't think Fears is gonna be there.
33:49
So kind of putting all the pieces to the puzzle together, I think Fears is gonna go five to Utah. Let's go.
33:54
And then the Pelicans, uh, Pelicans then I think are in the big business because there's not re- re- a good enough point guard at that point to take with the seventh pick.
34:01
So, um, I'm gonna slot Malak to S- to Pelicans at seven. I have not bet that at all. Um, and then I think Trey Johnson falls to the Nets at eight. Wow. And then those eight players- Ooh...
34:12
I think are very likely your top eight players in this draft, um, in some order.
34:17
Uh, and, uh, you know, most of my action is Kon under, and then darts on exactly finding the right landing spot for, um, for Fears at five to the Jazz, for Bailey at six to the Wizards, and for Trey Johnson at eight to the Nets.
34:32
Ba- Bailey to the Wizards at six sounds more and more like a play. Oh, okay. Yeah.
34:36
So I wanna bring this up with both of you, 'cause I feel like in the past 36, 48 hours, Drew, I, I, it feels like almost everybody's penciling in Ace to s- uh, uh, Ace to the Wizards at six, but that number has barely moved.
34:49
He's plus 230 still to go six. Is that, is that something we should be betting or is this a bit of a smokescreen still, we think?
34:57
Well, I mean, I think that, you know, you, you're, you're far enough down the board there that, and I don't, you know, there's, there's definitely some, a lot of speculation involved.
35:05
Um, number one, you have to avoid a trade where somebody trades up to, the Wizards trade up to three. Right. Right?
35:10
Like that's the kinda thing where you could grease the wheels and, and teams are now in the right order for the players they want kinda thing. So that could happen.
35:17
Um, but, uh, ultimately I, I do think that's worth, worthy play. My best bet, however, on the entire board, we are through eight play- eight picks, have not mentioned the name Noah Esengue.
35:25
He is lined at nine and a half for some inexplicable reason. This is the worst number on the board. If he goes in the top nine, I will be very, very upset on Wednesday night. Very, very upset.
35:35
And that's the third- This is-... the third of my three plays... ab- absolutely absurd. Over nine and a half on, on Esengue. Thank you so much, Drew. Appreciate it. Great segment.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
