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Jun 25, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 25, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 25, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey, yo.
0:21
How we doing? I'm good. It's happening. NBA draft. You got NBA draft fever? I'm pumped, man. I am more, I am more excited, uh, about this draft than I have been the past couple years. I don't really know why.
0:31
I think it's- 'Cause you have more bets on it... it's more bets, but then it's also the, I mean, we know how this works in the betting world.
0:38
It's the, it's the fun, but also fear of being so aligned with so many other people. [laughs] Yeah.
0:45
Well- I know we're gonna get into it a lot today, but, uh, there were some trades yesterday that I don't know if they helped us out or not, and- What it- Okay, well let's start... Okay.
0:52
On the show today, by the way, Luke Swain to talk NBA draft with us momentarily, Will Hill, any bets he has NBA draft, MLB and beyond. We'll talk Rocket Classic Golf as we go country clubbing.
1:02
Dalen Cuff from ESPN, some NBA draft and soccer, and we got you covered NBA draft again with Zach Cohen, and maybe he's got some tennis, too, on the grass. Greatest two words in sports, Kelly, bad Hamburg.
1:14
That's going on in Germany right now. Why don't they ever play at good Hamburg? I know. People say game seven. I always go bad Hamburg. Mm. It's my thing. Um, and we'll talk NFL, most wins, fewest wins.
1:24
We finally get around to this today. We were trying to do it earlier. May- We had other things we wanted to talk about. [laughs] We'll get around to it today. Hey, there's plenty of summer.
1:32
We'll get to it when we get to it. [laughs] That's right. Um, and I wanna talk, uh, I made a baseball bet we'll get to momentarily as well. A great game this morning, which I wanna talk about.
1:40
But, uh, about those two NBA trades, the Celtics get rid of more salary. So Kristaps Porzingis, three-way deal is dealt. Celtics now get under the, what, what they call the second apron, which I hear people using.
1:54
They never really explain it. Second apron, for those who don't know, is, is simply another level of tax, uh, another level where, where teams would have to pay above already a luxury tax. So Celtics are now below that.
2:08
Celtics get, uh, Georges Niang, a second round pick. Nets get Terrence Mann and the number 22 pick in this deal, and the Hawks are the recipients of Porzingis and a second round pick.
2:17
By the way, interestingly there, the Nets now have five first round picks tonight. Mm-hmm. Um, what about, was there something about this that said you, that might affect our bets is what you're saying?
2:29
Uh, it, well, this one, I think the Pelicans-Wizards one may be a little bit more interesting, 'cause they pick one after another. We saw McCollum go, uh- Yeah... get traded to the Wizards yesterday.
2:39
I, I just have a hard time believing that those two teams had a conversation about a trade and there wasn't, like, a, "Hey, by the way, we pick right behind you. What are you doing, uh, with pick number six?"
2:49
So, uh, I don't know. We'll, we'll see, and I think there's, I think there's plenty more to come today with some of these, because there are teams. No, you kind of hit on mainly what I was thinking.
2:57
Between Brooklyn, between Oklahoma City, a lot of these teams that we can see package a bunch of their picks together to move up. How does that possibly shift?
3:06
'Cause we've been so focused on that three through eight range, right, and it being wide open. Hey, man, my draft comes down to if Kinepple goes four, good night everybody. My work is done here. I, I mean, I'm with you.
3:16
That's the biggest position I have, uh, as well. [laughs] That's really all, that's really all it comes down to. I don't really care what happens after that.
3:22
Um, go top five, but if you can go num- if you go number four, there's your winner. I- There's your winning draft. I did finally get a bet, uh, I, I, I was able to. That Hawks trade come, came down, though, Gil.
3:31
You know I got a Hawks problem. I'm in. I'm, I was in. I got them. I beat to a, beat the number move, so I, I grabbed a 55 to one on the Hawks to win the East when that news came down yesterday. Oh, look at you.
3:42
East is wide open. I'm not saying this Hawks team is stacked or anything, but Jalen Johnson's awesome. He's gonna be back healthy next year. You got Trae Young. You got Kristaps Porzingis.
3:50
You got some pieces that you can build around that team. I, uh, they, they could put up a fight. Boy- See what else they can do. Boy, did we get the best of it with Kinepple numbers. Uh, even money to go top five.
4:00
He's now, like, minus 1,000 to go top five or something like that. Yes, sir. And then to go fourth, exactly, he's minus 170. Nice. Yeah. Nice. Um, best, the best comment I heard about the Bre- uh, the Bers.
4:12
Where'd I get the Brewers?
4:13
Uh, the best comment I heard about the Wizards yesterday was, uh, someone put up a picture of Marcus Smart, CJ McCollum now, and Kris Middleton, and they said, "Look, it's a, uh, it's an aging R&B band that lost its masters that still needs to tour."
4:27
[laughs] That's the greatest line. You are Washington Wizards everybody. By the way, the deals, the, the terms of that deal, McCollum and, uh, Kelly Olynyk, your boy. The Clinic.
4:37
Uh, and second round pick go to the Wizards. Pelicans get Jordan Poole, Saddiq Bey, and the number 40 pick in the draft.
4:44
And by the way, when Kelly sent us this, uh, this text yesterday that Saddiq Bey went to the Pelicans, it started, what would you say, a five-hour childish thing from me, Felik, and Will that was- I was tell, I was telling Wyatt all about it- [laughs]...
4:55
before the show, as I'm sitting there, uh, recording Long Shots, doing, doing Long Shots up now. Uh, and, uh, of course, halfway through Long Shots yesterday, my internet just completely crashed.
5:05
So I'm s- I'm sitting there at the desk getting frustrated as hell, and I'm like, "Don't worry, fellas. We're still getting all these texts, no problem." Mm-hmm. Yeah. We didn't learn our lesson.
5:12
It basically started by me saying, "Rafael Saddiq went to the Pelicans," and that was the end of that. [laughs] Uh, all right, baseball today. I don't usually talk about, like, uh, f- first of all, full day baseball.
5:20
Love Wednesdays. Don't usually seize on a game, uh, this morning, uh, or any Wednesday morning, but I do this morning, because, uh, 11:00 AM Pacific, 2:00 PM, is it, uh, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific?
5:32
I believe I have those, uh, times correct. Uh, it is the Pirates going up against the Brewers.
5:37
The only reason I mention this, last night, did, did you get, did you, speaking of NBA draft fever, did you have Chase Burns fever after last night with the Reds? Let's go. I did see a couple innings of it.
5:45
Ja- 11:10 first pitch Pacific. 11:10 Pacific, that's right, 2:10 PM Eastern, uh, for the, for the Pirates and Brewers, which we'll get to momentarily.
5:54
But Chase Burns of the Reds yesterday against the Yankees, only pitcher the last 50 years to strike out the first five batters he faced in his MLB debut. Ended up, uh, striking out seven.
6:06
In three innings, and then he got got in the fourth. Reds end up winning it in extras, 5-4, I believe it was. Was it 11 or 12 last night they won it in 5-4? Burns with that
6:18
sort of sexy debut, the first three innings anyway. He on the heels now, he's the shortest shot besides Jacob Misirowski of the Brewers for National League Rookie of the Year, just like that. Burns was 100-1
6:33
a few days ago before they said they were going to call him up. Will Hill got him at 100-1. Oh, good for Will.
6:38
Listen, I don't know if seven strikeouts in three innings before he got got is going to get you an All-Rookie of the Year, but nonetheless, pretty good number, 100-1. But Misirowski is the only one shorter.
6:49
Actually, Drake Ball was actually shorter according to this graphic. But Misirowski is plus 150, and Misirowski is plus 150 based on 11 innings of work where he has given up a grand total of one hit.
7:02
Now, that hit was a home run against the Twinkies. Walner went deep on him. But Misirowski, 11 innings pitched, one hit. Remember, he had a perfect game into the seventh
7:13
before Walner of the Twins homered off of him his last outing. His first outing, he went five hits of no-hit ball before they pulled him. So he's taking on Paul Skeens today in the Brewers-Pirates matchup this morning.
7:26
Skeens, he of the 1.85 ERA, the 175 batting average against, and the 0.88 whip. Cool whip. Whip. This is a coin toss. Really, just a coin flip here today in this ballgame. The total, this is what I'm interested in.
7:43
The total is, pardon me, six and a half. Now, the story with baseball totals is such that books are only willing to reduce it a certain amount. There is an artificial floor to totals in baseball.
7:59
Even when, you know, Timmy Lincecum was taking on Doc Holliday in the, you know, in the National League Division Series back in the day. Yep. They would only bring it down a certain amount. And so,
8:11
as bettors, if you are buying into Skeens and if you are buying into Misirowski, know that that is not as low probably as it needs to be. Really depends on your conviction on the two hitters.
8:22
But just wanted to throw that out there as a sort of baseball tenet when this sort of thing happens. It's not like they're going to move it to five and a half.
8:29
It's also the old, like, when I used to bet baseball, Gil, like the automatic when you see a total that low is to go look at the run line of like catching plus one and a half.
8:38
Like, obviously the odds are adjusted there as well. But that plus one and a half becomes so much more valuable, right, with every half run you go down. Yep. I did make a baseball wager yesterday, a futures play.
8:49
Oh, really? Yeah. File it under the category of, you know, I just want to have this just in case. And this has to do with National League MVP. Mark Borcher came on here last week and he said, Gil, I got,
9:04
I'm really about Ketel Marte. And I really, you know, I was like, oh, okay, I'll get around to it. And Shohei, obviously the favorite of the National League.
9:11
Remember, we went through the whole thing yesterday about Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh and how some folks all of a sudden, because Cal Raleigh hit his 31st and 32nd homers the other night, were like, oh, Raleigh all of a sudden MVP.
9:23
And I put up the slash numbers and I'm like, well, easy everybody.
9:26
Unless Raleigh does something absolutely ridiculous home run wise, which is still possible, and Judge doesn't, maybe that's the path for Raleigh to get MVP. But otherwise, it's Judge all across the board.
9:39
But I did mention yesterday, I go, but it does make me start to think about NL MVP again, which is to say that I do buy into the theory that if Shohei doesn't have some sort of standout pitching year, that voters will take the opportunity to say, hey, you know what, we're going to have to give this guy MVP in subsequent years when he does have big pitching years to go along with his work at the plate, of course.
10:02
So maybe this is the year where they go away from Shohei. And so I bet, not Starling Marte, we got the name wrong here. This is not Starling Marte of the Mets, guys. This is Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks.
10:14
Okay, I did not, let's just get that clear. I did not bet Starling Marte. I bet Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks yesterday at 90 to 1. 90 to 1 at William Hill Caesars. And they took a bet too.
10:28
By the way, as it was spinning, I loudly was like, you know, as if the guy who's deciding it upstairs or elsewhere in town could hear me, I'm like, this can't possibly win. It's got to be Shohei. Just give it to me.
10:40
Why don't you give me double the amount? There you go. Come on. Anyway, Marte was hurt earlier this year. Hip, hamstring, he had an illness.
10:48
So he's about 100 plate appearances behind both Shohei and Pete Crow Armstrong of the Cubbies. But when you look at the sort of on pace stats or the ones that don't have to do
10:59
with counting stats, I should say, OPS, Marte 1.032, Otani 1.014, Pete Crow Armstrong 873. Weighted on base, Wobba, Marte 437, Otani 422, Pete Crow 370.
11:17
War, according to fan graphs, Marte 0567, Pete Crow Armstrong 0513, Shohei 05. The only thing that Shohei has Ketel Marte beaten is the pace of home runs. One home run every 13.5 plate appearances for Shohei.
11:35
One home run every 15.3 plate appearances for Ketel Marte. Pete Crow worse than Marte on that. So I just want to have that 90 to 1 because if this just manifests the rest of the year, you never know. Coming back.
11:57
The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Vsin.
12:05
Hour number two of a numbers game at Vsin, the sports betting network, Vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
12:16
Hey. Disappearing before our eyes. What are you down to? Ooh, I don't even wanna say 'cause I don't believe it Oh, really? I don't believe it. 235 on the scale. Oh my God, you are fast approaching. Lowest I've been.
12:29
I don't really believe that, though. Okay. I feel like, I feel like it's gonna be, like, 239 tomorrow. Okay. Well, still. You never, you know, you never know. Water weight, right? Dude, do you, you...
12:36
The 240s are in your rear view. Let's just put it that way. They're in the rear view for right now, yeah. That's how you should look at it. You should be like, "I never wanna see that four ever again in my life."
12:43
I, uh, y- the, the most, the most upset I am about it is just the, that Turks and Caicos vacation. Oh, boy. I, I can vacation hard, Gil, and I did. It was just daiquiris by the pool for five straight days.
12:56
That threw on some weight afterward, that's for sure. That will do it. Yep. Yeah. Uh, let's talk some NBA draft, some more NBA draft. By the way, we will have, uh, Zach Cohen on later to do the same.
13:05
We'll talk NFL most and fewest wins. I got some thoughts on that. I got a bet. Uh, oh, do you? Yes. Oh, do you, now?
13:13
Um, but let's talk some NBA draft, some soccer with, uh, one of these gentlemen who is busy but yet somehow still makes the time for us, and we are appreciative. It's Dalen Cuff from ESPN.
13:23
You can follow him on Twitter at D-A-L-E-N C-U-F-F, joining us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Dalen? Good to see you. I'm doing very well. And guys, I never, we never met in person.
13:33
And Kelly- No... I, I didn't wanna say it, but you look great, brother. Thanks, man. I mean, I, I had thought it before, but I just kept it to myself. You're doing amazing. Keep rolling. I appreciate it.
13:41
Everybody can compare it to the open that we run before the show every day. [laughs] Also, we, we put up that Oz Perelman thing when he came on our show, and you were double the size. Yeah.
13:51
Like, that's where I really noticed. I'm like, "Good for you, man." It's 80 pounds now. Oof. 80. Woo. Awesome. That's good. Um, okay. Um, let's start with soccer.
14:01
Let's get your soccer plays out of the way because we've had some soccer guests on, Dalen, and I will be honest with you, this, uh, Club World Cup has really sort of flustered some folks.
14:11
You do have a bet in this, though. It's funny when you say it. The way you said, "This Club World Cup," like what the hell are we doing here? [laughs] That's- Well, it's a great question. Yeah.
14:20
Uh, FIFA and their money grab has been interesting. It has been weird trying to bet this and w- even watch it at times. Who's, who's...
14:26
The, the teams are invested because the, the program's telling them to be that way 'cause it's a six, you know, it's a nine million figure payout FIFA's giving whoever wins this thing, so they're invested in that regard.
14:35
The players, it's a little bit different. The conditions have been awful at times. A- and I really like Fluminense today in their final group stage game.
14:42
Now, they, they wanna win their group because on the other side, whoever finishes second in that next group could be a much more advantageous opponent for them.
14:48
They really were better, the better team versus Dortmund throughout the course of their opening match. They won their second match against a weaker opponent. They're playing a team from South Africa right now.
14:56
Uh, the Brazilian teams, the South American teams have fared pretty well in this in terms of form, the way they've looked.
15:01
They're in the middle of their league season right now, early part of their league season, so they're fresh.
15:04
A lot of the European clubs are playing, coming off brutal long campaigns, and they're also, from a weather standpoint, they are not adjusting well, and we've heard all the European teams complaining about the situation they're going through with a lot of the, um, with the heat, with the weather delays, all these different things.
15:17
Well, this game, again, is going to be in, uh, Miami, I believe, we are playing today. And I do like Fluminense even money. Uh, for the Brazilian team, I think they win their group.
15:25
I think they win today and move, uh, move on to the next round. All right. Fluminense even money today in the Club World Cup.
15:31
And you are right, I sort of like, I said it carefully so that I wouldn't, uh, wouldn't mess it up. Gold Cup, you have a futures play in the Gold Cup. Man, I, this is where I get a little... Is my, is my bias showing?
15:44
Like, I love our, our red, white, and blue. I want them to be good, but guys, it's been a disaster. Like, they, they- [laughs]... nobody's going to the games. Yeah. I'm not sure if these guys really...
15:50
They, they wanna win, the guys that are there, but they're not the most capable squad we ever had. We are on the side of the bracket with Canada. Uh, Canada's had our number.
15:58
They have been better than us in the last couple times we've played them. They've, they've been, they've controlled games. I think they know who they are.
16:03
Their, their, Jesse Marsch has, has laid out the foundation of how they're gonna play, who's going to be playing, and how, and how they can beat the Americans. And they are not scared of beating us on our f- on our soil.
16:13
They did it just a couple weeks ago, and then a couple months ago, I guess, in the Nations League. You have a situation, too, where we don't really have a home field advantage here right now.
16:20
So I, I think the Canada's got great value on that side of the bracket, and this is the first time both the Gold Cup giants, if you will, Mexico and the US, seem very beatable, very beatable.
16:30
So on the other side, Panama, who got to the Nations League final and eventually lost to Mexico in that game, I think they could have a chance, man. They're plus 800.
16:36
I like both those teams with just a little bit of value, uh, maybe more of a sprinkle on Panama.
16:40
I feel really good that Canada could get there, uh, even without Alphonso Davies, who's out injured, and, and still win this thing.
16:45
And I think that this tournament and these brackets have set up well for these quote-unquote underdogs. Uh, I don't think the USA deserves to be at that price.
16:53
I understand why Mexico is, but again, both those teams who historically have dominated this competition, that is a, uh, thing of the past. I look at those two teams a good value for Panama and Canada. All right.
17:02
Canada five to one, Panama eight to one. Always shop around, of course, for the, uh, CONCACAF Gold Cup. Let's go to the NBA draft, Dalen, and I know, uh, you, uh, in your state don't have this available to you.
17:14
We're, we're hearing a lot of that, by the way, with the, with the draft offerings. It's really a state-by-state situation, uh, as, as many things are, but really specifically for this draft.
17:23
Um, let me just ask you some, some broader questions about the players in here. One, what to do with Ace Bailey? Uh, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, both at Rutgers.
17:33
Uh, the team didn't do anything, uh, quite frankly, despite the talent. And now with Ace Bailey mi- you know, just refusing to work out.
17:41
There's even, you know, he was listed also at 6'10", and these teams are finding out he's only, like, 6'7" and a half. There's, I mean, there's all kinds of stuff. What do you do with a player like that?
17:51
If you're Philly at three or if you're any of these teams who are thinking, "Boy, but the talent is so tantalizingly good." Brooklyn has five picks. Maybe they trade up a package. Who knows?
18:02
Who knows what te- what teams are thinking. What do you do with a player like that if it's you making the decision? There's a couple things here. I do... You, first you gotta decouple him and Dylan Harper.
18:11
They're two different players, and the, the fact they went to Rutgers together does not mean that one success is gonna mean other, other one success or vice versa. I think Dylan's a lock at number two.
18:19
We all realize that. He, he is a more dynamic player in terms of getting to the rim. I think he's got the pedigree in terms of his father and, and his brother, a very great... Dad was a great player.
18:27
His da- his brother's a very good player trying to make his way in the NBA. Um- And I think that's a really good pick. With Ace, the upside, as you mentioned, tantalizing upside is there.
18:37
The, the, the problem I would see is not that if you don't work out. I, I heard Billis say this the other day, and I was saying the other day too, about it, it's not about the not working out. I don't love that.
18:45
I'm not a big fan of it. I'd rather see you go and compete. I want to be able to, to talk to you and engage with you and really lock in. If you don't do that, okay, fine.
18:52
But I really don't like the lack of maturity, and I wonder who's, who's managing him. When you had everything set, like, I mean, this thing with Philly was set.
18:58
And there's man-hours, there's people invested, there's all these things set up, and then you just eject. What's the situation there? What... There's, it seems like, like, who, who's running the show?
19:05
Are you mature enough to stand up to su- to, to your handlers at times and say, "No, I wanna, I wanna go do this. Like, this is what I should be doing"? I really wonder.
19:13
He, he, his game also requires the most matur- maturation as well. So it's not just mentally where he's, is, and physically as an 18-year-old, but it's his game has to develop. Like, he can make a lot of tough shots.
19:25
Not great at finishing at the rim. And I think you've got to be able to wonder about his body physically, too. You mentioned the height about it, how much he develops, how much he fills out.
19:33
And if he's ever gonna be able to commit it on the other end. Why Rutgers wasn't any good is not just 'cause they, they had two lottery picks or two top five picks, potentially.
19:41
They didn't really guard anybody, which is Steve Pikel's, you know, hallmark, and they didn't have enough money to pay for other good players.
19:46
Well, these two, when they were on the court together, which wasn't that common, 'cause they were injured all the time, defensively, they just really didn't show up.
19:52
And that's, that's not unexpected of young players, but you wanna see a guy that you're drafting in that regard be committed on both ends.
19:58
I question his commitment, as I just said, in terms of understanding what's going on around him with the situation and his handlers, as I already said that.
20:04
I question his game developing, and I question his ability to wanna play on both sides of the ball. So when you're asking me all these things, I would not take him from the Sixers at three.
20:12
I would probably lean toward VJ Edgecombe. Um, Edgecombe is an outstanding athlete, like a freak athlete, a really good defender.
20:19
He's, his offensive game has to work, but he, they, you need an elite skill to really make it in the NBA.
20:24
His, his ability to defend and his athleticism are two very elite skills that'll allow him to contribute to a team right away. Is the upside what Ace Bailey's is? No. But I'm not sure Ace is gonna get there.
20:34
And he needs a runway of guys, I think of, like, two or three years to really start to, to understand the NBA game, to really grow into his game, to develop more ability to finish at the rim and through contact.
20:42
It's a lot of ifs, uh, for a guy that, that I don't think did himself any favors by, again, not just not working out, but when he pulled out and how he did it, I, I just don't, I don't love the process.
20:52
My, my favorite part of all that was how nonchalantly we can now say, "And Rutgers didn't have enough money to pay any other, any other player besides those two guys." Yep. It is what it is, boys. It is what it is now.
21:00
[laughs] Yeah. Um, okay, two more questions. One, best player in your opinion in the draft, not named Cooper Flagg, is? Best player who's got the best career? Ooh. Best, let's go best career. Best career. Um,
21:18
I, I really do think, this is interesting. I think Kon Knipple's gonna have a fantastic NBA career. Now, is he gonna be a stud?
21:25
And I think that maybe speaks more to the dra- the draft and me questioning some of the guys being an absolute stud. I think Cooper's a knockout. I think Dillon will get there, too.
21:32
I think Knipple's worth talking about, and the fact that the guy can play in any way, shape, or form. He understands how to play. He's a really great shooter. He's got good physical size. He's a very good defender.
21:42
I think everybody... He's not deceptively athletic. He's athletic. He, he just, he simply is in the right spots at the right times. He's got good hands. He's got good feet.
21:49
Does he need to work on some of his lateral quickness? Absolutely. But the guy's a good defender. He's a smart player. He can knock down shots.
21:54
And I, when I say really good career, it's one of those guys that, is he gonna be an All-Star? I don't, don't... Probably not. But is he gonna help you and contribute to winning for the next 10 to 15 years? Yeah.
22:05
And I know he'll make hundreds of millions do- dollars doing that.
22:08
I feel very confident in that, that that guy can play with the ball, without the ball, and do all these different things on both sides of the ball, and just contribute to winning.
22:14
And that's what sh- I mean, you look at these teams right now in, in the era that we've gone to in the NBA where you don't, the super teams don't exist anymore. It's what's the depth? What's the contribution?
22:24
Where are we finding guys to come in and play specialized roles or really contribute in different ways where they don't have to be the star? You need those dudes. And he is one of those guys. Just go four to Charlotte.
22:34
It's all we want from a betting perspective, selfishly, I think. Yeah, that'd be nice. That'd be nice. [laughs] La- last thing. We have 30 seconds. Last thing. Uh, give me the non-lottery pick.
22:42
Maybe it's a late first rounder, maybe it's even an early second rounder. Who tomorrow everybody's gonna say, "Steal of the draft," is? I, maybe 'cause I just want a... Cedric Coward.
22:54
I just wanna know what's gonna go on here. I, I think the guy's story is remarkable, but his, his skill set and his body and his physique, it reeks of a little bit of Jalen Williams.
23:03
It has this, this feeling of he can impact the game in different ways. He do- he is becoming an all three level scorer. He's been off the beaten path.
23:10
I love guys with a chip on their shoulder that are out there to prove it, and so that they can, they are going to overcome the odds. And this is what I think this kid's about. I'm excited to see his development.
23:19
I'm excited to see where he goes, 'cause I think he could go in the 20s. He could be like Jalen Williams. Remember guys, he went in the lottery. Nobody thought that was gonna happen.
23:26
So I'm very excited to see where Coward ends up going and his career development. Cedric Coward right now lined at 14 and a half over under, uh, where he gets drafted. Dalen, really appreciate the time, man.
23:36
Thank you so much. Yeah. Anytime, boys. Be well. You too. Dalen Cuff, everybody. D-A-L-E-N C-U-F-F on the old Twitter machine, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. We'll come back, more draft and NFL next.
23:47
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24:05
That is, uh, boop, boop, boop, six days from now. And early access means a better shot at spotting value in futures markets before the lines move.
24:11
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24:21
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24:30
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24:47
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. By the way, correction from, uh, Moneyline Marv. Uh, we were being stupid. Of course, the NBA luxury tax pool, we know this, split evenly among teams that stay under the cap that season.
25:00
Kelly's nodding. I also don't know what's happening with the, like, second apron, everything, where, how all that money gets dispersed. The, like, that's part of it, the mo- the biggest part of it.
25:10
I don't, I don't know, though, some of this stuff. Well, we know this from baseball, too, which is his next point, which is some owners stay under just to collect the extra money.
25:16
Yeah, but you're, y- they're also at a point now in the NBA, Zach'll know this better than me, where you have to, you also, there is a, there's a minimum that you have to spend, too. So there's that. Oh, yes.
25:26
And the biggest thing, like, when you hear second apron, like you s- you started talking about this earlier, just think about we're getting close to a, w- the closest we've ever been in the NBA to a hard cap.
25:36
So it is, it has become so expensive for these owners to go, to go into the luxury tax, that that's, when you hear the word second apron, just think the closest thing we have to a true hard cap in the NBA.
25:47
Just like that they, uh, kept the word apron alive. Don't really hear that word very much anymore. That's right. Ma- Matt Brown tweeting, uh, texting into the show, by the way, "I have to make a correction.
25:55
Apparently I said lock in when describing, uh, over the top.
25:58
It was, uh, flip the switch," is what Sly Stallone used to do when he'd turn the cap around and get ready for the- Listen, if you, if you mess up quotes from Over the Top, you know that Matt Brown is there to correct you.
26:07
He, he's, he's here to correct me. Yeah. Uh, JasonH11, "Leave it to Kelly to be a Falconer groupie." Oh, we've long established him as a Falconer groupie. Oh, are you kidding me? Yeah. Yeah, that's old news.
26:14
Mike Goosh, "Coming to Vegas tomorrow for UFC 317 this weekend. Gil, Kelly, any reasonably," that's in quotes, "priced steakhouse you can recommend on or off the strip? Haven't been back to Vegas in over 15 years.
26:24
Can't wait to check out Circa." Whoa, you, you're in for a treat. Herbs and Rye off-strip, reasonably priced. I don't know if it's reasonably priced, but- I was gonna say reasonably priced is tough, but you- Yeah...
26:34
you, this is the town with some of the best steakhouses, uh, in the world. I will always give a nod to Scotch 80 at the Palms as, as my favorite steak in town, and you are off the strip at that point.
26:45
Um, it's my favorite steak period, though, in town. Andiamo at the D. The ribeye, cap. Andiamo at the D. I'll say that.
26:51
Uh, Chris Heath, "I need Samich to come on and give me the four-year-old version on how to place this GBank first bet VSiN trifecta." [laughs] We'll give you the details on that coming up.
26:59
Uh, Zach Cohen is kind enough to join us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together, VSiN senior writer. Let's talk some NBA draft with Zach. How you doing, man?
27:10
I'm good. How are you guys? Doing very well. How you feeling about your draft bets thus far? You feeling good? You a little antsy about them? What's going on? I'm feeling good.
27:18
I just feel like I've been so selective, and there was one yesterday that I wanted to bet today, and I just completely missed the boat on it. It was, uh, Johan Berenger under 17 and a half.
27:27
I mentioned it in the article I did at vsin.com.
27:30
That's down to 14 and a half now, and I just can't play it there, but he is definitely an intriguing player that I think a lot of, you know, smart teams are going to be ch- you know, maybe even moving up to try to get.
27:39
He's a- Luke, Luke Swain said, uh, him to go exactly 14 to the Spurs was his play at, uh, good bang for your buck, so right teetering on that 14 and a half.
27:48
Yeah, I have a feeling he might've had something to do with that, uh, that, that draft position move- That move... another, [laughs] Zach. Well, that's, that's the thing too, right?
27:55
We, we discussed this a little bit yesterday or the day before, which is how liquid is this market even, and do we know what a line move even means, or is that somebody like Luke who has a lot of people tailing him?
28:07
That's all it takes, and I think it's that, right? So there's that, uh, going on. I don't know how much we can read into stuff. What, what, what is available right now that you would recommend, Zach?
28:19
I, I still think Noah Ehsingay to go top 10 or to go under nine and a half is the best play that's available. I just feel like there's so much there with the Raptors. He had a secret workout with Toronto.
28:30
It's the only team he worked out for. Uh, they asked him what players he models his game after and tries to watch film on. He mentioned Scotty Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and Kawhi Leonard.
28:39
So it almost feels like he's just watching Raptors tape. So I, I really think that there's something there with him going nine, and I also have heard him now linked to Phoenix at 10.
28:48
So it really feels like that's kinda where he's gonna go, and I wouldn't even be shocked if he goes to Brooklyn at eight, which is why I've stayed away from taking him at the exact position of nine.
28:58
I just like him to go in the top 10 or go under nine and a half. Under nine and a half is, like, plus 175. Top 10, I think, is minus 115. Yeah, that's, that's the bet that I, and again, I only have the three bets.
29:08
Knipple top five, Knipple to go fourth, which again, CLV-wise is, is tremendous. We'll see if it actually manifests. The only other one is, is Ehsingay, and I went over nine and a half, but who knows at this point?
29:19
I, and I joined you yesterday, and not 20 minutes later, Zach sends me this video. Yeah. And it's like, "Yeah, like, Scotty Barnes, Kawhi Leonard." Like, what do all these guys have in common? Yeah, cool.
29:31
D- do you feel like it is going, I mean, I guess a trade can blow this up, but if there is no trade, big if, uh, it feels like it's Flagg, Harper, Edgecomb at three, Knipple four. Um, do you agree with that?
29:46
And then what happens after that? I don't know that I agree with that. Oh. I, I think that there could be some crazy stuff. I think Darryl Morey's a complete wild card at three.
29:55
Like, I know that Edgecomb's a player that we all think should go number three. He's a really good defender.
29:59
Uh, you know, he's probably gonna fit in well t- next to Tyrese Maxey, but I, I wouldn't really be that stunned if he were to take Ace Bailey at three and just say, "I don't care if you wanna go to Washington.
30:08
We're taking you here." Uh, I, I don't think it's crazy to think that he might take Trey Johnson at three.
30:13
And similarly with Charlotte at four, i- if it is Edgecomb, I know that we all kinda think Knipple's the best fit there, but Trey Johnson is not, you know, this, like, ball hog type of player that we've all built him up to be.
30:25
Like, he can be the knockdown shooter that Knipple is and just maybe offer some more upside. So I, I wouldn't be shocked if Johnson goes four.
30:32
I, I just think that there's a lot of uncertainty with this draft, and one of the plays that I'm kinda starting to talk myself into a little is Camen Maluach to go over eight and a half at plus 200, which looked like a lock at th- at one point that he would go top five, top six.
30:46
But I'm struggling to find the team now that's going to go out and grab a rim-protecting center when there are guys like Berenger, uh, Tomas Sorbara available a little bit later on.
30:56
It's a really deep class with centers and with that type of center. So I've seen him linked a lot to New Orleans at seven.
31:03
I'm not sure they're gonna take him when they just took Yves Missi, who had a really good rookie season, and I'm not sure the Nets are in a position where they can take kind of a role-playing big man at eight.
31:12
I think they need to swing a little bit bigger than that. So at plus 200 or so, I think Maluach to fall might be a good play. Yeah, there's a couple things that, that what you were saying.
31:19
One, the Ace Bailey still going third thing is interesting because, because it's the NBA, because it's basketball, it doesn't, it, uh, it, there is a scenario where unlike in football, right, if you do dumb things before a draft, or if you are not, if you are not easy, if you're difficult before a draft, in the NFL, you will fall by and large.
31:39
In the NBA, it's so talent first, right, that it almost doesn't matter sometimes what you do. Maybe you're right. Maybe Daryl Morey at three's like, "I don't care.
31:46
He can He can call my mother names, I'm still drafting him at number three.
31:51
And the other thing with, with Maluach, which is interesting, Brooklyn obviously now with five first round picks, the Brooklyn Nets could literally, starting with Maluach, that's what triggered it in my head, they could literally draft their starting five tonight.
32:03
That's how- [laughs]... ridiculous having five picks is. Yeah. Now, maybe they package it and move up, but I mean, that's, that's the position they're in. What's the scenario that ruins your draft?
32:12
What's the worst thing that could happen to you and your bets? I mean, I'm mostly invested in Esengue, so if he doesn't go top 10 I'll be hurt a little bit.
32:20
And, and if Fears doesn't go top five now, because I had under seven and a half, I got a little bit greedy, loaded up a little bit on the top five, because I do think that there's a lot there with that Jazz at number five rumor.
32:31
And I also think the Nets are maybe trying to kinda arm themselves with draft picks so that they can move up for Fears. Uh, if he doesn't go top five at this point, I won't win anything.
32:39
If Esengue doesn't go top 10, I'll lose. So those are definitely the two.
32:43
I, I don't have as much in this draft as I have in the past, although I will be looking for players to add today, just kinda continuing to look at what Gavone's reporting, uh, continue to look at what Sam Vecenie has.
32:54
Like, these guys are very plugged in. Uh, I would just continue to read that all day. I mean, yesterday, like I said, I wrote it up for vsi.com, Barringer was out there under 17 and a half.
33:03
Now it seems like, you know, all these guys are saying it's gonna be 15 or earlier. That's why you're seeing it at 14 and a half now. Hmm. Wh- uh, Zach, what are you currently thinking on, uh, Murray Boyles?
33:12
'Cause y- you're on his under, right? Yeah, I have under 14 and a half there. That's at 13 and a half now.
33:19
That might be enough of a move where I don't wanna take it, although I'd still lean under there just because I do think there's interest from Phoenix.
33:26
Uh, I, I think I could see him in Portland, like, that's the type of front office with Schmitz there that, that would value a player like him. He's very analytic friendly in the, the way that he contributes defensively.
33:36
He doesn't, you know, he doesn't shoot the ball well, but he is a productive offensive player, so I'd probably be looking at under there.
33:41
And the other one that I, that I do think is a little interesting I'll mention is Egor Demin, uh, i- in a match up with Kasparas Yakutinas. I kinda like Demin to go first, which is, like, plus 170.
33:52
I view them as very similar players, but Demin is just a little bit bigger, has a little bit more upside. I think that's, like, plus 170 right now. I don't really see the team for Yakutinas to, i- in the top 14.
34:04
I did not have an Egor Demin, Kasparas Yakutinas, uh, match up on my, uh, bingo card today, but here we are with the, uh, NBA draft. NBA draft now.
34:12
Right now Demin, uh, lined at 14 and a half, Yakutinas lined at 11 and a half. So, uh, Zach going the other way on that, going with, uh, Demin to be drafted first. Zach, enjoy the draft. I hope it is, uh...
34:24
Or the first round, I should say. Yeah. The second round, to be clear, is tomorrow night, televised for those who wanna watch that. Maybe more thoughts from Zach then. Maybe more thoughts from Zach then.
34:32
Zach will be on with us tomorrow- Yeah... to talk, uh, NBA draft round two, some Wimbledon on the heels of our, uh, Wimbledon podcast, and, uh, and beyond. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.
34:43
Zach Cohen, everybody. Um, @bettingonx. Coming back.
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