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Jun 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 27, 2024
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43:44
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN's NFL betting guide was released today, and there's never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
0:15
Our all-new NFL betting guide is your secret weapon for the upcoming season, with in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, and betting trends.
0:23
You'll have all the tools you need to bet this season smarter. Plus, our experts share their top bets on season win totals, futures, and props, giving you the insights you need to get ahead of the action.
0:31
To get the guide, you gotta be a VSiN Pro subscriber. For a limited time, get an annual subscription to VSiN Pro at an unbeatable price. Normally $240 a year, you can subscribe now for just $199 with promo code GUIDE.
0:45
That's promo code GUIDE, G-U-I-D-E. Plus, we'll throw in an extra month for free.
0:49
That's 13 months of VSiN Pro access to everything we do, including our daily best bets, 24/7 video, premium analysis, exclusive betting splits, data, and all our special edition betting guides to keep you betting smarter all year long.
1:00
Visit vsin.com/guide right now. Use promo code GUIDE to get 13 months of VSiN Pro for just $199. That's V-S-I-N.com/guide.
1:12
Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck here at Bar Canada at the D, numbers game at VSiN, and we are thrilled to have one of the key cogs of not only the NFL betting guide, but all of our betting guides. It's Adam Burke.
1:24
I always call him the glue that holds this operation together. Uh, technically he's the VSiN managing editor and co-host of the Double Play podcast as well. You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods.
1:33
Adam joins us to talk about the guide right now from his place here in Vegas. How you doing, Adam? I'm good.
1:40
I think the, uh, I think all the excitement, all the work on the guide kind of wore me down a little bit, and maybe, I don't know, maybe it's the wildfire smoke, but good to be with you guys here.
1:48
Well, can we, can we- well, I hope the wildfire smoke, I hope you can dodge that, first of all, but how, how long would you say this guide takes to do from the moment you put pen down or, or type your first letter, uh, to do this, and the collective effort, like how many collective man-hours does this take?
2:08
Yeah, it's a, it's a fair question.
2:10
I mean, I, I handed out assignments a little over a month ago, you know, on this guide, just making sure that everybody kind of knew what was expected of them and, you know, to also give our guide editor, Matt Divine, time to put this thing together.
2:20
So we had staggered deadlines for it. I think the first piece came in June 13th, uh, and then we kind of built out from there.
2:26
So, you know, it's definitely a, uh, it's a work in progress, at least over that, you know, three-week period. But look, I mean, I've got a phenomenal team here at VSiN.
2:35
My senior editor, Zach Cohen, who I know you're gonna have on the program here, I believe next. Next, yep.
2:39
Um, you know, not, not only, not only does he cover tennis and NBA for us over at the website, but he's a tremendous help to me with any of these big projects that we do. So he was a big help.
2:48
Everybody's been a big help, honestly, from everyone promoting it on air, the people making graphics to help promote it, to the producers making sure that it's weaved into the rundown for the show.
2:58
Everybody has a hand in this thing. Everybody is, you know, part of the reason why we h- we are so successful with these guides.
3:05
So makes my job a little bit easier to have the team that I have around me, that's for sure.
3:09
Well, that's very, that's very modest of you, but, uh, you are a key cog in all of it at all times, and, uh, we wanna acknowledge that. Again, vsin.com/guide. Gotta be a pro subscriber. Vsin.com/pro for everybody.
3:21
Uh, I wanna get to the NFC North and the AFC North, which you wrote yourself.
3:24
I wanna get to your awards plays, but before we do any of that, the grid that is featured in this guide, I went over it a little yesterday to start the show.
3:32
Uh, 21 VSiN personalities talking about their, you know, division picks, conference picks, Super Bowl picks. Uh, the NFC West, sir, 20 of the 21 folks picked the Niners to win the NFC West. You were the one outlier.
3:45
Who did you pick and why? Yeah, so I, I think the Rams have a real shot to win this thing this year. I really like some of the additions that they made on the defensive side.
3:54
Offensively, I mean, this was a good team last year. You know, this was a top 10 offense.
3:58
You've got maybe the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and you got Kyren Williams, who's a really, really good running back.
4:05
Matthew Stafford, maybe getting a little bit long in the tooth, but I still think he's able to get the job done here, and I also really like the addition of Jonah Jackson on the offensive line.
4:14
But defensively, this was a below average unit by EPA per play last year, and they brought in Tre'Davious White. We'll see if he can stay healthy.
4:22
They brought in Darius Williams, so I think they did a really good job of adding some talent at the corner position. Also, you're bringing a pass rusher like Jared Verse, that's never going to hurt.
4:31
And I don't think people really realize this, and honestly, from a production and stats standpoint, my vote for the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year would have gone to Kobe Turner, who's the guy who's kind of gonna replace Aaron Donald in this defense.
4:45
That's what he did last year. You know, he kind of rotated in when Donald came off the field, but you can move him around as a down lineman, little bit of a rusher. I think he is a budding superstar in the NFL.
4:55
So I think the Rams are really, really talented. I think they're kind of being slept on a little bit because the 49ers have been so good and so consistent. I, I, you know what?
5:04
I honestly think it's, it's worth a shot to take a Rams future to win the NFC West here. Plus 330 for the Rams at DraftKings right now to win the NFC West. All right, you wrote about the NFC and AFC North.
5:15
Let's start in the NFC. Wyatt is wrapped with attention because he's a Packers fan here. Uh, NFC North odds, Lions are the short shot, Adam, at plus 150, as you know. Wyatt's Packers plus 210.
5:26
The Bears plus 265 with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams cozied up to the Lions and the Packers in the betting market. And then the Vikings, one of these things is not like the other. They're 10 to one.
5:38
Um, wow, that's a big gap. W- how did you come down on this division in its entirety?
5:44
Yeah, well, I'll go ahead and throw out one of the awards picks that I had to kind of, you know, grease the wheels here on the NFC North, which is I heard Matt Brown.
5:51
One time I was coming in for a segment on The Handle, and I heard Matt Brown talking about Jared Goff 40 to one to win the MVP, and I thought, "Okay, this is really interesting. He's making a strong case for it.
6:01
I don't know that I can bet it, but I think that he's making a pretty strong case for it." Then the NFL schedule came out on May 15th, and Jared Goff plays 14 of his 17 games indoors this season.
6:12
He only has three games that are outside, only one of them pretty much guaranteed to be in bad weather. That's in late December in Chicago at Soldier Field. So the weather won't be good there. We know that.
6:22
There's no question about that. Other than that, his two outdoor road games, early November at Lambeau Field, and then late December out in Santa Clara against the 49ers.
6:32
I like Jared Goff 40-1 to win the MVP as well, and it was the schedule that gave me the push to kind of go over this one.
6:38
So if I expect Goff to be an MVP-level candidate, certainly I expect the Lions to be the top team here in the NFC North. They got a ton of weapons. The offense is good.
6:48
Dan Campbell went from being the butt of all jokes to being one of the better coaches in the NFL.
6:52
I think that, you know, this is a team that's really building nicely, and they can run it back on offense again with Ben Johnson, who didn't get a head coaching job.
6:59
So for me, it is the Lions that I think are the top dog here in the NFC North. AFC North, Ravens plus 130. By the way, I love the Jared Goff play. Uh, AFC North, Ravens plus 130, Bengals plus 145.
7:13
I already bet the Bengals some months ago at plus 175. Uh, it's top-heavy there. Then your Browns at six to one, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, uh, at plus 850 bringing up the rear. Best division in football?
7:26
Uh, I, yeah, I guess I would say best. I would certainly say deepest. You know, I, I don't know if maybe it's the best.
7:31
I, I wonder if maybe the NFC North, you know, is a little bit stronger top to bottom, but I do think that this is the deepest division and the most difficult one to play in.
7:40
I mean, these AFC North games are wars year in and year out. And I think it's gonna be really fascinating to see how things play out here.
7:46
It turns out I'm a little bit lower on the Bengals than, than most of us here at the network. I mean, when you look at the division winner picks, 10 picked the Ravens, 10 picked the Bengals.
7:55
So even across the board, one very brave soul took the Browns.
7:59
But I don't, I just don't know that there's a guarantee that Joe Burrow's gonna come back off of this weird wrist injury that, you know, we've never really seen in the NFL all that often.
8:09
And Burrow has kind of admitted, like, you know, "Hey, this is gonna be a thing where we're gonna have to monitor it for a while, because we don't know exactly how my body's going to respond to it."
8:18
Says he's fine, says he's doing all of his things to prep for the season, but I'm a little bit concerned here. Also, you know, does the offense maybe take a little bit of a step back with Brian Callahan gone?
8:28
The defense, we all talk up Lou Anarumo, but they really weren't that good last year. They struggled badly against the run, 25th in rush EPA, 24th in drop back EPA.
8:38
They gotta get a lot better on that side of the ball, I think.
8:40
And for Cleveland, I mean, look, th- this might be the best roster in the AFC outside of the quarterback position, and the problem is the quarterback position is the most important position in sports.
8:52
So we saw it last year. I mean, the Browns, Kevin Stefanski wins Coach of the Year. They're a playoff team with five different quarterbacks.
8:58
Watson had a good win-loss record as the starter, but his stats weren't really good.
9:03
Um, you know, the defense got exposed a little bit by a downfield passing game of the Texans that they hadn't really seen a whole lot, and Jim Schwartz didn't really account for it, but that's a rarity in today's NFL.
9:13
So I still think the Browns have a really high s- really high floor, potentially high ceiling if Watson's any good. I still think Baltimore wins the division, though. Adam, give us one more awards market.
9:23
You had said Goff to win MVP, Jared Goff to win MVP 40 to one earlier. Give us one more awards play you like.
9:30
Yeah, so this one, I mean, look, you know, when you look at the Coach of the Year markets, a lot of times it's a first-year guy, maybe a second-year guy who has a really big, you know, win upgrade with his team, right?
9:40
Maybe they win four, five, six more games, something like that, and he winds up winning Coach of the Year.
9:45
I think Nick Sirianni at 40 to one actually has a shot to do this, though, because, yeah, the Eagles were great last year, but they completely fell apart, and that's the only thing that people remember. They fell apart.
9:54
They got blown out by a very mediocre Tampa Bay team in the playoffs. I think the Eagles are 14 and three or better, kinda good this year.
10:02
So I think Sirianni, if they are the number one seed, this feels to me like when John Harbaugh won Coach of the Year a few years ago, because the first-year coaches outside of Matt LaFleur didn't do all that well.
10:13
So I think Sirianni at 40 to one with maybe the best team in the NFL in terms of a win-loss standpoint, I don't think it's as crazy as it sounds, even though you look at this award historically, it typically goes to younger coaches.
10:25
Adam's AFC North and NFC North write-ups, uh, including the, uh, two awards picks he just gave. He also has an Offensive Rookie of the Year play in the guide and a Defensive Rookie of the Year play guide.
10:36
Uh, both of those are, uh, 25 to one and 35 to one respectively currently, so check it out again at vsin.com/guide. The VSiN Pro Football, the VSiN NFL Betting Guide. Adam, thank you so much, man.
10:48
Thanks for making the time. Thanks, guys. Have a good one. Adam Burke, everybody, VSiN managing editor, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We'll come back. Zach Cohen on the NFL next.
10:57
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Our all-new VSiN NFL Betting Guide is out now. Have you heard this one?
11:13
It's out now, and it's packed with everything you need to dominate this NFL season.
11:17
We got in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, and proprietary betting trends that you won't find anywhere else, but that is not all.
11:24
Our experts have weighed in with their best bets on season win totals, futures, and props. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL Betting Guide is your ticket to smarter, more informed bets.
11:32
And to celebrate the release of the guide, VSiN is going all out today with expert NFL analysis, insider tips, and insight to help you start the season strong.
11:39
Visit vsin.com/guide to get your copy of our all-new NFL Betting Guide today. That's V-S-I-N.com/guide. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlin here at Bar Canada at the D.
11:53
Uh, thrilled to have Zach Cohen join us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, Zach, a VSiN writer and editor. You can follow him on Twitter at Betting on X.
12:01
Zach, I'm pumped because you, you had the NFC East beat, and I always love talking NFC East, so we'll get into that momentarily. Uh, but can we crescendo?
12:10
Can we start with, 'cause I'm looking at our grid here, and you've got some, uh, you've got some interesting thoughts on the Chicago Bears. What's your favorite bet there? Let's start there.
12:20
Yeah, so I took Caleb Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, which I got at about plus 200. I think it's down to plus 140 or so now. Uh, I'd still take it. I know it's a really short number.
12:30
You don't really wanna have your money tied up in a long-term bet like that without getting a really good payout.
12:34
But at the same time, like, I think that Williams is entering the league in a better position than any quarterback we've seen in recent memory.
12:41
I just can't think of a team that's been as loaded as Chicago is on the offensive side of the ball for a quarterback that we're touting as, you know, one of the best prospects we've seen in years.
12:49
So I think that Williams is entering a situation where you have DJ Moore, you have Keenan Allen, you have Rome Odunze, who they picked at number nine, and then Nicole Kanaal is a really good tight end as well.
12:57
I think that this is going to be a really good pass-catching weapons team, and I think that they're gonna do a really good job of making Williams comfortable in his first year in the league.
13:05
So I know that there are some tough games at the end of the year, but I actually like that he's going to have, you know, an earlier start to the season that's going to be a little bit easier.
13:12
It's going to allow him to ease into the year, and I just would be really surprised if he doesn't win. That's why I was willing to take that at a small number. It's, it's amazing the expectations on Caleb Williams.
13:22
Uh, but as you point out, maybe as good a situation as you can possibly expect for a guy getting drafted number one, uh, the one that Caleb Williams is entering.
13:32
And then you like the Bears as a, as a whole to make the playoffs. Yeah, I'm taking a shot on them to make the playoffs. I mean, I think that the defense last season was amazing once they got Montez Sweat.
13:41
They were top five in the league in EPA per play allowed from the time on that they got Sweat. The pass rush just needed a little bit of life, and he gave that to them.
13:48
It actually changed the entire way that they played defense. They became a much better pass-defending team once they got Sweat.
13:54
I think that that defense is only going to be better with another year with Sweat in the system. I think that Matt Eberflus is a really good defensive coach.
14:00
And then like I said, like, I think that this offense is going to be able to hit the ground running, even if Williams is, like, 75% of what we think he's going to be and not the full thing.
14:09
Like, I think that this offense is good enough to really do some special things.
14:12
Yeah, I was mentioning yesterday in the, uh, grid, the 21 VSiN experts, again, with divisions, conference, and, uh, Super Bowl plays, that, uh, in the AFC, three wild card teams, 21 teams, so 63 picks tire-- entirely.
14:25
There were no surprises for AFC wild card from anyone. But in the NFC, there were two Bears wild cards. You were one of them, I believe, as we just, uh, learned right here.
14:34
And, uh, then there was one Cardinals and there was one Commanders. I am the Commanders guy. And for those who would snicker at that because I grew up loving this team, I'm the guy who always bets against them.
14:45
So for me to actually like them, um, I would, I would actually think that that should carry a little more weight.
14:51
Let's talk NFC East, because I do feel like it is-- And by the way, I don't think the Commanders are gonna be great. I think it's a weak conference where they have a wide variety of outcomes.
15:02
And so I think that's a possibility because of that. But I also think the rest of the division is in complete chaos.
15:10
How do you view the division at wh- as a whole, and then, uh, that can segue into an MVP bet that you have? Well, I will, I will say I have the Commanders over six and a half.
15:19
I honestly, I took everybody, every team in the East to go over because, like you, I am down on the overall NFC, and I think that the NFC East is going to have some competitive football teams.
15:27
Two years ago, in 2022, all of these teams would have gone over this year's win total. So it's, you know, it's tough to say that they're all gonna do it again. I don't think that's going to happen.
15:36
But I do think that you're getting plus money odds on a lot of the overs in the NFC East. So if, you know, two or three of them hit, you'll end up profiting a little bit.
15:43
But I do think the Commanders are in a pretty good position to surprise some people. I just think that Dan Quinn is such a good defensive coordinator that he's going to fix a lot of the problems that they had last year.
15:53
He's going to play-- You know, they, they're gonna make less mistakes over the top of the defense, which has been a big problem for them is the secondary over the last couple years.
16:01
So I do think that he's going to fix that quite a bit. And then Bobby Wagner, they just added in the middle. I think he's one of the best linebackers in football still, even at an older age.
16:09
I think that he's going to change the locker room quite a bit. And I also think that, obviously, Jayden Daniels is every bit as talented as Caleb Williams, in my opinion.
16:16
I think that he's entering an offense that also has a pretty good amount of weapons.
16:19
It's not quite as good as Chicago, but I do think it's a team that can surprise some people because I think the defense will be better, and I think the offense has a lot of potential if Daniels hits.
16:28
We gonna have a back-to-back winner in this division for the first time in over 20 years? I don't think so. I mean, I think that the Eagles are going to win the division.
16:36
I, I, I took both of these teams to go over 10 and a half. Uh, I don't feel great. I feel better about the Eagles making a long run in the NFC than I do about them winning the division.
16:44
But I'm really high on Philadelphia this year. I just think that the coordinator changes they made in the off-season were massive. I think Vic Fangio is going to stabilize that defense after a really down year.
16:54
And I think that Kellen Moore is just gonna keep things a little bit more simple on offense. I think Brian Johnson was the reason that a lot of those drives stalled out for the Eagles last year.
17:03
And I think Barkley, you know, it's not a huge upgrade over Swift. It's, it's a weird situation where people wanna hype up a big name coming in. Swift did a good job for them, but it's a small upgrade.
17:12
I do think it'll help the offense a bit. But I think mostly the most important thing for Philadelphia will be that Jalen Hurts will be healthy this year after being banged up visibly for most of last season.
17:21
Can I, can I play devil's advocate? Can I give the, the case against the Eagles just to have a- Go ahead... a debate about this? Um, so they lose six of their last seven, including the playoff game last year.
17:32
They were a no-show against the Bucs. But remember, they got destroyed by, uh, Dallas and San Francisco. They lost to the Cardinals and the Giants down the stretch.
17:43
I think the, I think the, the, uh, point differential was minus 82 in those last regular season games. And then they lose to Tampa in the playoffs. Tampa Bay was nine and eight. Uh, as you point out, new coordinators.
17:54
So they fire Brian Johnson on offense. Sean Desai [chuckles], Sean Desai gave way to Matt Patricia, which ends up being Vic Fangio. So that's a good thing in the long term, one would think.
18:04
But there is a transitional period, right? And so I worry about that because Jalen Hurts, this is one of the things that, you know, tried and true NFL thing is continuity.
18:15
Continuity matters more than we ever say that it does. And so I'm going through the-- These are the coordinators, offensive coordinators for Jalen Hurts.
18:25
Not to mention, by the way, in college he was, he, he had to transfer right from Alabama to Oklahoma, so he's getting different systems there too. But it's Kellen Moore this year.
18:33
Before that it was Brian Johnson, Shane Steichen two years before that, Press Taylor before that. So that's four... What's that? Four coordinators in five years now as a pro, not to mention his college days.
18:45
And so I just wonder if some- if someone like Hurts can acclimate that quickly. Like, every year things are changing up. Um, and then I think about their defense, right? And, uh, we gave the s- them so much credit.
18:59
This is why, you know, I was saying with the NBA draft earlier, this is why you can't really analyze a draft the next day and say, "Oh, winners and losers," 'cause we were all like, "Oh, the Eagles, they're mimicking the Georgia defense."
19:09
Well, Jalen Carter didn't finish strong last year. Jordan Davis, they say he's in better shape, but he's still 350 pounds. Nakobe Dean is a backup. Um, Nolan Smith couldn't even get on the field.
19:20
Then you have Barkley's wear and tear. The schedule isn't easy. Um, the D-line depth is probably, you know, not something we bring up enough. So I guess, I, I guess what I'm saying is you throw all of that in.
19:33
And by the way, Sirianni seems like now he's one of these coaches where if things go bad early, he could be the scapegoat. All of that in the mix, my feeling about the Eagles, you might be right.
19:43
They might win this division, but what's the political term that they use at political conventions? It might be by acclamation, 'cause everybody else sucks. That's possible. Yeah.
19:53
I mean, I'm putting a lot of faith in Hurts this season. I think that last season what we saw was a bit of a fluke. Like I said, I think he was a little bit banged up. He looked uncomfortable for most of the year.
20:01
I think he threw more picks than we're going to see him throw this season. I think that he's not a player that's going to make a lot of mistakes in the passing game. I think that last year was a bit of a fluke, honestly.
20:10
His completion percentage over expected last season was higher than it was the year before. So I think we can trust him to bounce back and be an accurate passer again. And I think that Moore is going to come in.
20:20
I don't think he's going to change the offense drastically. I think it's just going to be some small changes here and there, where there are gonna be some play calls that make a little bit more sense.
20:27
I think that Johnson threw a lot of QB draws in there in times that did not make sense, which, you know, were bad plays to begin with, but also put Hurts at harm's way.
20:35
So I think that the offense is going to be a little bit more simple.
20:37
I think that adding Paris Campbell is going to help as an underneath option to just kind of make things a little easier on Hurts with a short target in the passing game.
20:44
And then defensively, yeah, there are some major concerns.
20:47
Like, you're gonna need Carter to play a lot better than he did towards the end of last season, but I'm a big believer in his talent, and I'm a big believer in the line talent.
20:54
Like, the defensive line, I think, is going to be a strength there, even if, even though, despite what we saw towards the end of last season. Yeah. I didn't even mention Jason Kelce is retired also.
21:02
That's obviously in the mix. Yeah. That's a big one. In the mix as well. Yeah.
21:05
But you know, at the same time, that's why the NFC East, I think, is so fascinating this year, because I could also see a scenario where Dallas, right, 'cause Jerry's not paying anybody.
21:13
If things go bad for them, I could see, like, a complete revolt in terms of their play on the field, 'cause they'll be like, "Ah, he's not paying us either. This is terrible."
21:21
So I d- I do think the Eagles still might be the best team in this division despite all the warts. But it should be fascinating, because new coordinators, Sirianni just sort of overseeing it.
21:32
Uh, Zach Cohen on the NFC East and all of his plays, again, in the VSiN NFL betting guide, vsin.com/guide. Zach, appreciate it very much, man. Always great to talk to you. Thanks, guys. The great Zach Cohen.
21:46
Betting on X on the Twitter machine. We'll come back. Football: The Global Game with Paul Carr next.
21:54
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:13
Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
22:21
Just 'cause we're doing the NFL betting guide today doesn't mean our website shuts down. It is full, in full effect. It's in full effect mode wide, is what it is, to quote the great Al B. Sure.
22:30
Uh, NHL draft predict- uh, predictions from Johnny Lazarus. How about that? On the heels of the NBA draft first round, and the second round today, NHL draft taking place this weekend. Johnny Lazarus with his plays.
22:41
Uh, JBT does attempt a winners and losers from the first round of the NBA draft. Um, and then we got some, man, Adam Burke. You think, you think he's got it all covered?
22:51
How about the, uh, the Ally 400 NASCAR betting odds and predictions from Adam? And Lou Finaccaro on UFC 303, big UFC card this weekend as well. Adam d- Adam did NASCAR?
23:00
[laughs] He's got- Oh, I'm gonna have to text him about who he likes. He's doing it right here. It's amazing. Steve Macadam with bullpen betting systems. This is all at vsin.com. Check it out.
23:08
We get tweets at Betting The Book. Uh, this is from GillsGuys15284, 'cause 15283 was taken. Uh, "Is there any value on Naomi Osaka at Wimbledon?"
23:17
He says, "Chic," [laughs] that's how you refer to her, "Chic took Queen Iga the distance, was very impressive." Talking about the French Open. Yes, Iga's scare at the French Open.
23:25
Uh, I am not betting Osaka at Wimbledon, just to be honest. Um, but I don't hate it. Uh, I think there's, I think she's always with a flyer. We don't know the draw yet.
23:33
By the way, uh, Drew Dincic, Zach Cohen, and I, the, uh, the same gentleman who was just on the air with us, we are doing a Wimbledon podcast after the show today. This is from Snicklefritz Picks.
23:44
"I know a World Series prediction is a dart throw, but would you be enticed by a 30 to 1 Phillies over Guardians or Phillies over Orioles?" Um, I don't hate them, but I'd need more than 30 to 1, Snicker Picks.
23:57
Uh, Jesse Welch, "I cannot believe Connect fell so far. That decapitated my whole draft. Under nine and a half, eight and a half, and seven and a half. Dang.
24:06
Just to follow VSiN, I'm thinking draft numbers must not be installed on the board. Maybe taped up from behind facade. That's why I couldn't, that's why we couldn't bet them, even though the books put them up.
24:13
Mine would've been losers, too. Lol." I will tell that draft story coming up with Crack momentarily.
24:18
And then, uh, Dusty, dustyNoel7, uh, "When going through this two and a half month long journey," almost three months now, "with baseball month-long picks, you said you bet the teams blindly day to day.
24:28
What's your factor or price to betting minus one and a half compared to straight ML?" Good question.
24:33
Um, there's, there's no science to it other than, like, the, t- uh, two days ago I money lined- Excuse me, I run lined the Astros against the Rockies at a prohibitive price yesterday.
24:46
I, um, also run lined them because the price was too high in both cases. I w- didn't feel comfortable money lining them. But there is no...
24:54
To be honest with you, it's so brain-dead for me in these, but thank God for these handicaps in baseball, 'cause they are saving me from other bad bets in other sports.
25:02
So it's been great with- without question, but there is no tried and true, um, rule for me on that. Um, it is a value, whatever the value dictates. Uh, Paul Carr joins us now to talk about the global football.
25:15
He comes to us from Topeka, Kansas, @paulcarr on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:19
And of course, Paul is the host of the Expected Value podcast and works at True Media Networks, spreading analytics throughout the world. It's Paul Carr, everybody. How you doing, Paul?
25:30
Well, there's no Euro games today, during the day or at all, so I'm a little bit confused that I'm not gonna have soccer on- Oh... this afternoon. I have just the thing for you. You got something to do.
25:40
I have just the thing for you. What do you got? I, this afternoon, 'cause it's an afternoon thing, you're in Central Time? I am. So 3, 3:00 PM, sit down and just enjoy the pageantry of the second round of the NBA draft.
25:52
How about that? No? Nothing? Nothing? Don't wanna do that? Is, uh, is Danny Manning going number one this year? I can't- Uh, he's, uh- I'm trying to keep it up. I don't know. I don't think he's available, no. Oh, okay.
26:01
Okay. Let me, let me ask you, before we get to the Euros, let's talk about, uh, Copa America, where we had an upset. Yeah. Right? Venezuela beat, uh- Yeah... beat Mexico, and the US plays tomorrow? They play tonight.
26:11
They play tonight. Yeah, tonight. Oh, okay. They got a- Pardon me... they got Panama tonight. Panama's kind of been a bogey team a little bit for the US. They play them pretty tough.
26:19
They knocked them out in the Gold Cup semis last year on penalties. Um, I mean, the US should win this. They're minus, I forget, two something to, uh, win this game.
26:27
I'm not really gonna end up touching this one either way. I do think, you know, I, I kind of hate saying this, like, you get decent prices on Panama.
26:35
I think there's, you know, US is obviously the home team, and you get some favorable lines in that sense. So I kind of would lean that way if I had to play something, but I'm staying away from this game on the whole.
26:43
Well, what I got out of that was you hate America, Paul. That's what I got out of it. Is that- Yeah, that's pretty much it. That's, uh- Yeah, sure... Falika's rubbing off on me. What can I say? [laughs] Falika.
26:51
Wait, you tell the Falika story real quick? What was it again, in South Africa? 2010 World Cup. Yeah. Landon Donovan goal against Algeria just, you know, put the US through.
26:58
It's one of the great moments in US soccer history. I'm in the studio. Falika's in the newsroom in Johannesburg. [laughs] I get back from the studio after that, you know, I'm on this high.
27:05
Like, "Ah, this is great," whatever. Falika just kind of looks at me, shakes his head. He's like, "I had Algeria plus half a goal." [laughs] That's great. Of course he did. Of course he did. Of course he did.
27:15
That's our kind of guy. Okay. Um, so to the Euros. Yeah. England, we spoke about it briefly the other day. You have an NFL comp for their struggles. Yeah.
27:27
So they're, England was the pre-tournament favorite or co-favorite with France, depending on your book. But, I mean, they've been really bad offensively.
27:34
They have all this offensive talent that, you know, in the Premier League, you've got Ha- well, Harry Kane's in the Bundesliga now, but Harry Kane, and Phil Foden was the player of the year in the Premier League, and Bukayo Saka is Arsenal's best, best attacker, and there's a whole lot more.
27:47
And they have two goals in three games this tournament, and it's looked worse than that.
27:51
So I keep thinking of, remember early last NFL season, the 49ers hit that three-game losing streak, and I'm not sure they scored 20 points at all, and they lost to, it was, like, the Browns, and I don't re- you know, they just looked bad- Yeah...
28:04
even though they had McCaffrey and Deebo and Aiyuk and all these weapons. So I kind of feel like England is like that. The difference is, I think we all kind of thought Shanahan would figure things out.
28:16
I don't, not sure people think that Gareth Southgate, England's manager, knows how to figure this out, because it was a problem three years ago at Euros.
28:22
It was pretty much a problem at the World Cup a year and a half ago, and it's still an issue here. Just hasn't figured out how to use all this attacking talent to its maximum ability.
28:30
So a 49ers comparison, but not really, is what you're saying. Yeah, to a point. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Just the, the lull reminds me of that.
28:36
I'm just not so sure there's the upside, at least the way, you know, with the current English coaching setup. All right.
28:41
So you point out something about the bracket right now as we go into the knockout stage that is probably the headline about this tournament- Yeah...
28:48
which is pre-flop numbers and the bracket, it ain't exactly, uh, balanced. Yeah. And we knew this going in.
28:57
This is, you know, part of the reason the prices were on some of the title favorites, but you have four of the five favorites are in, I'll call it, the top half of the bracket.
29:03
You have Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, and sometimes this happens because, you know, a team stumbles and they're runner-up instead of they're winning the group.
29:11
This was really the draw itself, 'cause Spain, Germany, Portugal, France all won their groups, so they're all, you know, where they quote, "should be." Uh, but that just so happens to be the top half of the bracket.
29:21
So the bottom has England. This is the, I think I said it before, like, England make the semis and not be very good at all, and part of it was because they have a relatively easy draw.
29:30
Now, they could get Italy or even Switzerland in the quarters, which is not a cake, but they don't have any of those other four of the five favorites in their half of the bracket.
29:38
So things look good for England, even though they haven't been very good at all. Okay. You have a couple plays in individual games here, uh, one to m- uh, excuse me, one on Saturday, one on Sunday.
29:48
So let's start with Saturday. Yeah. So I'll give the standard disclaimer first. These are knockout games, so most of your bets are going to be 90-minute bets, meaning just through regulation.
29:58
So if you're playing a team plus half a goal, that's 90 minutes. You get to extra time and it's tied, you've won regardless of what happens. Uh, these two picks I have, though, are to advance.
30:07
So this means it doesn't matter if they win outright, if they win in extra time, if they advance on penalties. That's gonna cash the bet e- either way.
30:16
So, uh, I have Switzerland to advance against Italy on Saturday at, at plus 120. Uh, Italy also hasn't looked very good.
30:23
They don't really have a reliable number nine to score goals up top, and Switzerland is not a high-ceiling team, but they always...
30:32
They've made six straight major tournament knockout rounds, either at Euros or the World Cup. So they always kind of get here, and maybe they'll win a game, and that's about it. But they just kind of know who they are.
30:40
They're kind of that reliable, uh, I don't know, mid-major or lower, you know, major conference team that you, you know what they are, they know what they are.
30:48
And they can execute it fairly well even if they don't have the high ceiling of, of the top five, six teams. Uh, so yeah, Italy's struggling.
30:55
Switzerland, you know, a very competent team, which kind of feels right for Switzerland in general. I, I just like them to advance at plus 120.
31:03
So this is, again, the disclaimer at the front is if you're betting sides or if you're betting on the three-way, it's a 90-minute bet, but two advances, you win any which way. Correct. Yeah. Okay.
31:12
Yeah, so the prices will look a little bit different. So if you hear one thing, someone says something, but you just gotta make sure you got the right bet.
31:19
'Cause if you wanted Switzerland to win the game outright, you're gonna get like plus 240 or something like that- Right... to win in 90 minutes, but to advance at plus 120, 'cause it can go any way you want.
31:27
All right, and your advance on, uh, your two advance bet on Sunday is? I have Slovakia to advance over England. Wow. Now, this is price-based.
31:36
I will say there are a lot-- I've seen from like plus 350 to plus 490 out there this morning. So obviously I took the plus 490. That's the one you wanna find. Uh, again, this is the price.
31:48
So it's like, you know, one out of six, little better than that times. Is Slovakia gonna get past England? I think so. This is a fate of England. Again, two goals in three games. You can choose your bad offensive metric.
31:59
They had the fifth fewest shots in the group stage, the third fewest expected goals. They only outshot their opponents by three.
32:05
Yeah, England's going to want to grind out, in all likelihood, like a one-nil type of win, and then you're trying to do that, your margin for error is obviously slim.
32:13
So this is kind of the same logic as taking the England-Slovenia draw earlier in the week. It's gonna be close.
32:20
This is a, you know, average-ish European team they're playing, but England hasn't proven to be a lot better than that so far. All right, so Switzerland to advance versus Italy at plus 120 on Saturday.
32:29
Slovakia to advance, Paul's number's plus 490. Try to get the best number you can here, versus England on Sunday. And the other thing, of course, is he hates America. He likes the value on Panama. Oh. Yeah. All right.
32:40
Needs to wear a flag shirt next time or something. [laughs] That's right. Gotta prove it to us, Paul. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it as always, man. You bet. Have a good weekend. Paul Carr.
32:49
My NBA draft story next with Crack. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:04
Once again, our all-new VSiN NFL betting guide is out now and is packed with everything you need to dominate this NFL season.
33:11
We got in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, and proprietary betting trends that you won't find anywhere else. But that's not all.
33:18
Our experts have weighed in with their best bets on season win totals, futures, and props. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL betting guide is your ticket to smarter, more informed bets.
33:26
And to celebrate the release of the guide, VSiN's going all out today with expert NFL analysis, insider tips, and insight to help you start the season strong.
33:32
Visit vsin.com/guide to get your copy of our all-new NFL betting guide today. That's V-S-I-N.com/guide. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacationing Kelly Binning. You good? You all good? Good.
33:47
I was, uh, I enjoyed the, uh, the, the three segments with Crack. Oh, always. You know? By the way, that was, that was minus 5,000 that Crack was gonna say something on the way out. Fine, you want me to leave?
33:56
Uh [laughs] I was, I was gonna blame you for it, and I, 'cause he asked, "Who puts the show together?" I was like, "I, I, I didn't say three segments for you."
34:02
Well, I guess it's only fair that we go to the guy who actually displaced Crack. I know this is how he wants to be introduced. Ladies and gentlemen, @NotTheWillHill on Twitter.
34:11
He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. It's Will Hill, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Will? I'm okay. I feel a little bit like I'm pinch-hitting for Aaron Judge a little bit.
34:20
Uh, as you know, Cr- the Crack hour is, is my favorite hour of the week, so it's a little bit ironic. Little bit ironic. That's right. I told him you were, you were apologetic about it as well.
34:29
Uh, you have a football take or two that might not be conventional, yes? I've talked about the Jets a lot. I just think there's a major advantage in terms of their schedule.
34:40
When you look at Buffalo, they have to play every team in the conference title game from last year. So Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, 49ers. They play the Jets twice. They play the Dolphins twice, and they play the Texans.
34:48
That's 9 of their 17 games. Miami at the end of the season has the Browns, the Jets, and the Packers all on the road at, all in cold weather. Miami's not a team that travels well.
34:58
And if you just look at projected wins by DraftKings, Jets' opponents are projected to win 120 games. The Bills and Dolphins are projected to win 142 and 140 or so each. Jets have a major advantage in the schedule.
35:10
I just think they really did a good job addressing their offensive line.
35:13
And look, a- as bad as it was last year, I mean, that's an absolute disaster with Rogers going down the first series of the season and having no backup quarterback, they still got to the seven.
35:21
So them getting to 10, 11, 12 wins I don't think is impossible. In the AFC where everyone has a tough schedule, theirs is not that bad after San Francisco week one.
35:31
So to me, Jets to win two to one, uh, Jets two to one to win the division and some longer shots on conference championship, win the Super Bowl. I, I, I really don't mind it. I think they're gonna be really good.
35:41
As long as you can get Rogers to be like the, I don't know, 10th or 12th best quarterback, I think they're gonna be good. I don't buy these off-season stories. I don't care what he does in June.
35:48
He's at mini camp, he's not at mini camp. This news cycle the last year ever since Rogers got hurt- Yeah... with when he's gonna return. Yeah. Is he gonna play on the ACL? What's he doing, you know, politically?
35:57
I, I, if, I pay no attention to it. I think they're gonna be a good football team. What is the conven- what, what is the opinion that is, throughout conv- what, what's the conventional wisdom right now about any team?
36:09
And part of this is anecdotal because we don't necessarily have this quantified, but from what you've experienced, what's the conventional wisdom opinion in the NFL that you disagree with the most?
36:19
The one that makes you wince a little bit where you're like, "People keep saying this, but I don't buy it." That's a good question. Other than like Washington going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl, um- [laughs]
36:31
Who said that? I will say I, my, my betting just instincts are any time, cover your ears, Mouse, Wyatt. Any team, I, I'll stick to the Texans.
36:40
I'll leave the Packers out of it, although I do, I get worried any time these teams are hyped.
36:43
Any time a team has a lo- a, a big jump in just overachieving from one year, uh, I just worry they take a step back next year. So my antenna's up with the Texans. Everyone just assumes they're gonna take- I'm with you...
36:55
a step forward, another step forward. It's not always linear I, I just think the schedule was easy. Everything broke right. Everything was house money.
37:03
You come into this year with expectations, you add Diggs, there's a spotlight on you. Now it's a first-place schedule.
37:08
I'm, I'm a little careful, and that directs me to one of my other bets because if I'm looking to fade the Texans, and I've never been a Trevor Lawrence fan. You and I are right on this. I've never been a Lawrence fan.
37:16
I have always thought he was overrated.
37:17
He's an okay player, but I, I think we're, we're deep enough into his, into his career where we think, you know, anything above being an a- a slightly above average quarterback to me is a stretch. I look at the Colts.
37:28
I love Steichen as a coach. Hell, he almost won the division without a... He lost his quarterback and almost won that division last year. I mean, we all love the Texans for winning the division.
37:34
The Colts almost won it with, with, you know, their backup. Uh, they're potentially a lead at quarterback and at coach because I love him, but I still, I'm interested, I worry he's gonna stay healthy.
37:43
He's, uh, like a car crash on every play. But he is super talented.
37:47
So if I got a potentially superstar coach and a superstar quarterback in a weaker division, I think the Colts, I, I'd like a little bit better of a number, but I saw plus 310 at DraftKings.
37:54
That's one where I think they could be better than people think. Yeah, I'm with you.
37:58
I, I said that about the Texans a b- couple months ago where it's like these things are, do not always get, you know, graphed perfectly in an upwards line. Um, so- Right...
38:08
I had the Jaguars, you know, as a better team than the Texans. But knowing, and, and that's with me not being a fan of Trevor Lawrence. Uh, let me ask you about a couple other things.
38:16
Do you have a, an awards bet that you have either made already or that you're eyeing? No. I think the awards markets, I've talked about this. I think Mahomes and Lamar won this in 2018 and 2019.
38:30
It, remember, if you remember, 70 to 1, 80 to 1, and then even 2020, Rodgers won it at 30 to 1, all at MVP.
38:36
And you'll, I, I think the books just kind of took their ball and went home and said, "We're not gonna hang these huge numbers on quarterbacks that are live because we know the award.
38:43
It's a quarterback, and it's a quarterback of a w- a winning team, a team that wins their division." So the days of getting guys that are live at 60, 70, 80 to 1, it's just not there.
38:52
I, I especially look at the MVP where everything, every, anyone you'd be interested and you th- think that, "Oh, this guy's a sleeper," like, okay, people that like Trevor Lawrence, 30 to 1.
39:02
Like, I would need double that. Me too. Okay, Herbert, you know- Yeah... maybe with hard ball he plays better. 15 to 1. I just think I need, like, double these available prices. To me, they're all s- kind of taking...
39:16
And remember, Lamar was 15 to 1 Christmas, so you can get good numbers on this late in the season. Yeah. That's interesting, and that sucks for bettors, but I think you're right. That is, c- and certainly for MVP.
39:25
Now, might there be opportunity in some of the other awards markets? Maybe so, 'cause they're a little more nebulous and a little more volatile. But MVP, uh, yeah, it's, it's, it seems to be muted. I, I will say- Yes.
39:38
Yeah, I will say if I like coach of the year, if I like the Jets, maybe Saleh coach of the year just because you're, you're getting a jump in wins.
39:44
You're getting, uh, a situation where they haven't been to the playoffs in a while. Remember Mike Brown won this award in basketball because the Kings hadn't been to the playoffs in a while.
39:50
So could Saleh be the beneficiary of a big jump, a big jump for the Jets? Maybe at, like, you know, 11, 12 to 1. Maybe that's not a bad one.
39:57
I don't know if you heard earlier, Zach Cohen was on, uh, talking about, uh, the NFC East, and he has the Eagles winning.
40:03
He has Jalen Hurts winning MVP, and I sort of just gave the devil's advocate argument of, "All right, but here's all the things happening with the Eagles." And so yeah, they might win the division.
40:13
Like I, I, th- I just think the division top to bottom has so many question marks. The Giants are terrible, and then everybody else has question marks. And so I, I wanna ask it of you in sort of a broader sense.
40:23
When we think of the best teams in the NFC, AFC's a little more hard 'cause there's, you know, the, there, there's the Chiefs, but then there's tons of other good teams. The NFC, we, we, we think of the Eagles.
40:32
Maybe some people think of the Cowboys. We think of the Lions and the Packers, and we think of the Niners. Maybe some people think of the Falcons, but generally not, and then maybe some also with the Rams.
40:41
But it's, it's much more defined, right? I'm just, I'm allowing for those other teams, but it's really Eagles, Lions, Packers, Niners as a group of four. Do you, w- who would you, how would you rank those four?
40:55
Like are... 'Cause I think, I think a lot of people are still like, "Oh, the Eagles are still the class." I don't see it that way. How do you see it? It's funny. I,
41:04
I, I was talked into the Eagles a little bit just because so many people think, "Hey, the narrative, they added Barkley. They had a good draft."
41:10
Drew Dintic did a good job of at least making me think twice that they're a lock to win this division or, or a great bet to win this division because he takes it back to two years ago.
41:18
Remember they made the Super Bowl, and they beat up on all these bad quarterbacks. Yes.
41:21
And I think this narrative has formed they have a good defense, and they've been living off that where last year I know they were what, 10 and 1, but a lot of that was luck.
41:29
So there's been this confluence of events where they had a soft schedule with quarterbacks two years ago, then they had things break right just in close games last year.
41:35
So they are, to me, the most confusing team in the league. So I think there's a wide range of outcomes where if they bounce back and they were 13 and 4, I wouldn't be shocked.
41:43
And if they were, like, 9 and 8, 8 and 9, I don't think I'd be shocked. Hurts is a confusing player. Uh, the whole team, th- everything with Sirianni where they don't seem to like him.
41:52
I mean, there's some immaturity there. To me, i- if there's one team that's just completely confusing to me, it is Philly. Uh, baseball rapid fire to close. Are you worried about your Yankees? Uh, they have some holes.
42:04
They definitely need some additions, so yes and, y- yes and no. I think this is just a, a... I mean, they're still 52 and 30, but they, they certainly need some things addressed. Cole hasn't pitched well.
42:14
The starters haven't pitched well. They got holes everywhere. They need a bat. They need a couple relievers. But big picture, they're gonna make some additions.
42:20
I think they'll be okay, but right now, like this version of the Yankees is not a title team. So they're gonna need to, to make some renovations, but I, I think they'll be okay.
42:27
They've gotten lucky in that Baltimore slumped the same time they did, so i- if, if things didn't go well for them with, with Baltimore slumping, they could be looking, you know, at three, four-game deficit.
42:36
They're still in decent shape. I do think they'll bounce back, but certainly have to be concerned. It's been ugly. And how about the Mets? What a stunning turnaround. Yeah. I went to a Mets game like three weeks ago.
42:44
They were 11, 12 games under. Now you blink and they're 500. It really is, uh, a stunning turnaround as I can remember. Uh, one correction, the Yankees, uh, didn't benefit from an Orioles slump.
42:54
The Astros destroyed the Orioles. Just wanna point that out. That's a correction. And, uh, the Yankees 12- No, they didn't... 12 and 11 minus four run differential in the month of June. Any picks on the way out?
43:03
Anything today? Short slate. Under f- under four and a half first five with your Giants magic against the Cubs. Imanaga I think bounces back against Hicks. That's a pretty good pitching matchup.
43:12
And I think if you can l- put the date on when you, you were at the game Yankees-Giants, you, you might have put a little hex on the Yankees 'cause they've not played well since.
43:20
I was at that June 2nd game in the glorious sun of San Francisco when the Yankees put up four on Duvall in the ninth to beat them. Yes. May you be hexed forever. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it.
43:33
Will Hill, Shoulda Bet Moore is the name of his podcast. Does a great job. Check it out. We've done all we can do. GoJoe and Golick are next. And Joy from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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