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Jun 27, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 27, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 27, 2025
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44:39
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:09
If you're serious about winning this football season, the VSiN NFL Betting Guide is your first real edge, coming out this Tuesday, July 1st, four days away.
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0:40
Your smartest NFL season bet starts now at vsin.com/subscribe. I didn't even look at tweets yet. I'm, I'm gonna need till Fezzik Friday to recover from this, the Grigor Dimitrov news- [laughs]...
0:53
that I heard last segment. I already thought Grigor was cool- I-... and now, like, my mind has just got, was blown. Just- Did I not even mention Fezzik? Fezzik's on the show, of course. Yeah. Yeah, oh yeah.
1:01
I, I feel, I think I failed to mention Fezzik. Fezzik's on for, uh, three segments next hour. With, with maybe my favorite, favorite topic he's ever texted us that he wants to discuss before.
1:11
He wants to talk about, he has a shaving tip. He has a shaving tip. By the way, I don't think his shaving tip, I caught wind of what his shaving tip is. That it's, like, not all that secretive?
1:17
I don't think it's that spectacular. [laughs] I think every human being knows this shaving tip. So do. [laughs] And Fezzik is like, "I've got a great idea." We'll get to that and more.
1:26
[laughs] And everything on his mind in sports betting. Uh, and he has a lot on his mind sports betting wise. Uh, NFL teasers, uh, he wants to touch on. He's on a baseball heater. He wants to get into that. Yeah, he is.
1:38
He's got plays in baseball. Um- He's gonna pull, single-handedly pull me back into betting CFL, I know that. He, does he have any CFL picks? He's had a couple, yeah. He's had a couple.
1:47
Well, I mean, on today's show, though. I don't know about today's show. Yeah. So he's got, he's got a lot on his mind. We'll get to, uh, we'll get to Steve Fezzik coming up.
1:53
Um, let's talk soccer in the meantime, and maybe get some football thoughts, uh, domestic football, that is, from our buddy Paul Carr, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from the heartland, Topeka, Kansas.
2:04
What up, Paul? How are you, man? Hello. I've traveled west a little bit. I'm in Denver for, uh, did the US women's soccer game last night, so got a little more altitude, a little thinner air, but we're, we're cooking.
2:17
What about the elevation in addition to the altitude, Paul? Is it elevation- I don't know... or is it altitude? Just curious. Um- Uh, same thing, right? Yeah. [laughs] There's probably some technical difference.
2:24
I don't know, man. Oh, boy. Oh, don't do it, Paul. [laughs] Don't do it. We can't go down this discourse again. Oh, man. Oh, boy. Never mind. You, you don't wanna do this. Forget I said anything.
2:31
It's the greatest argument in the history of primetime action. Yeah, that's right.
2:34
Uh, Paul, by the way, working at True Media Networks, that's why he's, uh, that's why he, he's, he peddles analytics around to, uh, I shouldn't s- use the word peddles. He, uh- [laughs]...
2:43
he's always promoting analytics and trying to get, uh, different sports leagues and sports teams into analytics. They have, uh, services on that.
2:50
He's also the, uh, host of the Expected Value podcast, and worked for many years at ESPN. Um, what capacity now are you, where you are, in?
3:00
Yeah, so for these US games with TNT, and I do the guy in the booth next to the announcer and write notes on cards. Things happen.
3:08
Hey, it's the first time, you know, she scored two goals in a game since whenever, et cetera, et cetera. So keep the, keep the show going.
3:14
You care to share with us who the, uh, the kindest and the least kind announcers are that you've ever worked with? Care to share with us?
3:19
I mean, I will tell you, so JP DeLaCamera has been doing soccer since, like, literally the '80s, and he did the game last night. He's one of the best play-by-play guys to work with.
3:28
He's, uh, he did some hockey, uh, back in the day, but soccer's really where he's made his bones, and he's as good to work with as anybody. As good to work with as anybody. That's always good to hear.
3:38
Um, before we get into- Yep... uh, Club World Cup, and Gold Cup, and all of that, you are a Miami Dolphins fan. Well, you're a couple things. You're a Kansas City Royals fan. You're a Miami- Yes... Dolphins fan.
3:49
Um, I'm interested in, 'cause we have Jordan Sherwood coming up who's doing UFC, I'm gonna ask him, he's a Chicago Bears fan. I'm curious where he thinks the Bears end up in the NFC North. What is your take on it?
3:59
If the Bills are first, which I'm gonna guess you, you believe as well. Yes. Where do the Dolphins fall this year? I would like to think that they're second.
4:09
I know the Patriots are gonna get a lot of hype, 'cause they were, you know, not terrible last year, and I think they'll be better. I mean, the D- the Dolphins, it's almost as simple as like, is Tua gonna be healthy?
4:22
Uh, can, and is the offensive line going to hold together? You know, they, they've made some potential upgrades both through the draft and free agency to try to make that better.
4:29
If that's better, and Tua, if you told me that Tua plays 16 games, then I feel really good about the Dolphins being the second-best team in the division, but I feel like that's a coin flip at best. Yeah.
4:40
I have the Dol- I'm not gonna give away what one of my bets was in the, uh, in the NFL betting guide coming out in four days, but it involves the Dolphins, and, uh, my last line was, "Don't let me down, Tua." Mm. So.
4:49
[laughs] I know, I know there's someone in that guide that has them making the playoffs. Oh. Someone. Yeah. Someone. There's one. There oughta be a- Someone... fringy playoff team. Does he look like you?
4:57
He looks exactly like me. Okay. All right. I, no, I'm with Paul. I've been sitting here all off-season.
5:02
I think Paul just laid it out perfectly, but I've been sitting here all off-season, and we're, all of a sudden we've went from like a year ago thinking this Dolphins team could have a s- a s- this super huge upside to, oh, no, they're complete crap, which I don't really understand, and the Patriots are amazing all of a sudden.
5:16
I'm not on board with that. Amazing all of a sudden. That's so true. I'm not, I'm not on board with all that yet. It's, anecdotally, it's one of the, the, uh, the biggest hype trains this off-season. We shall see.
5:24
Um, okay, let's go to the FIFA Club World Cup. Uh- Yeah... true story, Kelly and I walked out of here one day. This is a true story. You'll, you'll verify this.
5:32
Oh, God, I thought I was gonna make so much money off Kelly. I say to, and I say to, uh, Kelly, I say, uh, "Hey, uh, Kelly Bidlin, see that game right up there?"
5:38
'Cause they're always, this feels like it's random times for these Club World Cup games, and they always put up a three-letter- Tri-code, so to call it. Yep... abbreviation of some kind- Mm-hmm...
5:48
for each of these clubs. And I said to Kelly, I go, "Kelly, $1,000 if you can name both of these clubs just based on those two, [laughs] based on those two things."
5:54
And Kelly thought I was gonna stop at the one, and he just felt $1,000 coming his way, but he could not name number two. Yeah.
6:00
[laughs] Um, at first- Paul, at first he said, "If you can name one of these clubs," and then he, right away he corrected himself, "both of these clubs," and it was Man City. [laughs] It was Man City was one of them. Oh.
6:08
And then I had no idea who they were playing. [laughs] Paul, if you can name both of these clubs, I'll spot you Man City. Um- If you didn't get Al Ain. Yeah, I mean, it was someone like that, yeah.
6:17
How are you doing- Yeah... in this, by the way? Uh, I'm being very cautious. I'm not going crazy on this, especially, just, just, we talked about it earlier.
6:25
It's the nature of, A, a tournament, and B, these clubs being at so many different, uh, stages of their seasons, dealing with the heat and all these things.
6:32
So I think, I haven't totaled it up, but I'm probably either up a little or down a little. I haven't made a whole lot of plays on this one yet.
6:38
Okay, but your South America call, South America team to win is still looking pretty good? Yeah. We got a shot. We got, let's see, we have three Brazilian teams all in one half of the bracket.
6:47
We're in the round of 16 now, and two of them play each other, which is, you know, for better and worse. So yes, there's a decent shot of one getting through.
6:54
Uh, the other one, there's a couple others, or no, one other in the other half of the bracket, but they're playing Bayern and then PSG potentially, and then Real Madrid potentially. So that'd be a tough shot.
7:02
But yeah, for a, what was it, eight to one, nine to one shot before the tournament, I still feel pretty good about it. Okay, and you do have a, you do have a bet here in the, uh, FIFA Club World Cup.
7:12
Yeah, I'm taking one of these Brazilian teams. I'm taking Flamengo to advance. Again, we're at the knockout stage of the tournament, so this is just to go through. Uh, plus 235 against Bayern.
7:21
Uh, Bayern's obviously a heavy favorite, uh, one of the better European teams, et cetera.
7:26
They won their first game 10-nil against Auckland City, but Auckland City is like, literally everybody there still has regular jobs type of club.
7:33
Um, so- [laughs] And Bayern wasn't very impressive in the other two games, and Flamengo was. They came from behind to beat Chelsea.
7:39
Uh, I think this is a pretty good price, and it also gets to what I think is one of the big picture stories of the tournament so far, which is just the, the heat.
7:48
You know, there, it's been, I mean, really hot even for North America so far, and these European teams in particular have been struggling.
7:55
I mean, Bayern, Dortmund, a couple other teams I think, like their bench guys who are usually, you know, on the bench watching the game, went back inside to watch the game at times, and this was when it was like 87 in some of these places.
8:08
So I think the South American teams will continue to handle the heat better, which is something to watch not only in this tournament, but also in the World Cup next year. Okay. Uh, let's go to the Gold Cup.
8:18
When Mexico plays Saudi Arabia, throw out the records. [laughs] Heated rivalry. Uh, you have a total play in this. That's right. I do. Mexico's never lost to Saudi Arabia, as you know.
8:29
Uh, yeah, but neither one of these teams was very good offensively in the group stage. Mexico got five goals, but four of them came from set pieces, and they haven't, they're not clicking.
8:38
They're still trying to figure things out under a newer manager about how to run their attack. They've tried a few different options so far. None of them have really worked very well.
8:45
And Saudi Arabia seems to have no interest in scoring, especially against the US, the best team they played in the group stage. They were content to try to scratch out a nil-nil draw.
8:53
Didn't quite work, and they lost one-nil. So I think this game will look a lot like that US game, where Saudi Arabia's just gonna lock things down.
9:00
If you told them they could get to penalties, they'd be ecstatic right off the bat. Uh, so I have under two and a half in this game at minus 130, and again, remember, this is a 90-minute regulation bet.
9:11
So it goes to extra time, it goes over, you're still winning. Under two and a half, minus 130. Okay, and you have a play on a, uh, side to win the Gold Cup at eight to one odds, and the reason that this is- Yeah...
9:22
fascinating to us is because we had Dallin Cuff on from ESPN yesterday, and he landed- Uh-oh... well, he gave out two sides, and one of them was this very one, and it is?
9:33
It's Panama at eight to one, and I mean, if I were to boil it down super simply, Panama is the best team in the group stage, and they're the fourth favorite at eight to one, which, I mean, it kind of makes sense, 'cause they're likely to run into Mexico in the semifinals, and then they would play presumably the US or Canada in the final.
9:51
But they've been the best team. You know, they were in control of all three games, and they're kind of the always a bridesmaid, never a bride team of CONCACAF the last few years.
9:59
Lost to Mexico in the Gold Cup final a couple years ago. Lost to them in Nations League final this year. Uh, so they've made, I think, four semis in the last three, four years, but haven't gotten over that hump.
10:07
And even though they don't have their best player and a couple others, they've looked as good and better than everybody else. So eight to one I think is a pretty good price on the best team so far in the tournament.
10:17
Ellie, is, is Wayne Brady gonna have to bet himself some Panama? I like it. I like it. Yeah. Might have a Gold Cup play come. Panama eight to one, uh, with a very simple handicap.
10:26
They've been the best team in the group stage. I like a handicap like that. Uh, Paul, appreciate it very much. Uh, we'll talk, uh, between now and football season, but I'm sending the Dolphins good vibes, sir.
10:36
I hope it works out. Just send them a big bubble to keep Tua in. [laughs] First, first and foremost, both serious and, uh, both, both a serious comment as well on Tua. Thank you, Paul. Yep. Appreciate it, man.
10:47
Have a good weekend. Thank you. Paul Carr, everybody, @paulcarr, P-A-U-L-C-A-R-R. The big giveaway for a free Circa Millions and Survivor entry next.
10:58
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter this football season?
11:15
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11:53
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12:02
You know, we do the, uh, the reads, and we don't really stop down and, and truly say sincerely how great of a betting guide this is.
12:10
Uh, all the folks, Matt Humans, uh, Adam Burke, uh, Zach Cohen, everybody, Wes Reynolds, everybody who does such great work on all of the betting guides, no matter the sport, this one is the, the granddaddy of them all, pro football.
12:24
Mm-hmm. And, uh, Zach Cohen deserves, uh, tons of credit. Yeah, absolutely. Adam Burke, Adam Burke writing from multiple different countries across Europe. Yeah, yeah. Uh, I mean, gosh, we, we've had...
12:35
It's not even July yet, and every on-air person on VSAN involved made Gil do homework already. [laughs] Imagine. Uh, we get tweets at beating, at Beating the Book.
12:44
Eddie Vegan Runner, "Did you know that the U2 song Elevation was originally going to be titled Altitude?" Ha, makes sense. [laughs] Then they listen to this show.
12:51
John U at C2C Hoops, "On May 16th on your show when the Orioles were 15 and 27, Fezzik gave out the Orioles under 73 and a half wins. Since then they're 19 and 19. Have the O's turned it around?
13:02
Number today is again 73 and a half. Does Fezz still like that under bet or is he considering buying off it?" We shall ask him when he comes on here momentarily.
13:10
Um, Buddhist Man can't believe that we didn't use your world-famous AFC bucket hat to get the call for today's contest drawing.
13:17
Buddhist Man, as I've told you, I, I, I w- at least once a week I see that thing in my closet, and I, I chuckle 'cause it was, it was just a great gift, and I just wonder, when am I ever gonna have an opportunity to wear it?
13:27
Yeah. Hoops by Hoots, "Gil and Kelly, much more upfront on their drawing process than the NBA draft is, but how do we know Kelly didn't freeze the paper slips that he wanted to draw?" That's a good point.
13:37
That's a good point. Here's how you know. I would have frozen something that was, uh, that was a last name that was easier to pronounce.
13:43
[laughs] And by the way, we are way more open with that drawing process than the NBA lottery is, that's for sure. Fred Courier, Judge Kelly with the official ruling on the giveaway [laughs] contest.
13:52
And J&J Watering Hole, "LFG, I'm Jess and can't wait. Can you please give me a couple weeks to make the name change official through the courts? Congrats to the real winners." Good for you, J&J.
14:01
Congrats to the real winners from other listeners. Uh, let's talk some UFC 317. Jordan Sherwood joins us right now. Always a pleasure to have Jordan in.
14:10
He, of course, uh, the co-host of the unnamed MMA podcast for ESPN Chicago. You can follow him on Twitter @WoodOnESPN1000. What's happening, Jordan? Been a long time, man. Yeah, been a long time. Uh, everything is good.
14:23
I know it's a big fight night when I get the, uh, the text or the call from Kelly midweek and said, "Hey, can you jump on for a couple minutes, talk some fights?"
14:29
So, uh, yeah, happy to talk about what's gonna happen, uh, tomorrow night in the Octagon. All right. Just because I have to pay off this tease, I asked Paul Carr about his Dolphins fan hood. Real quick, you on the Bears.
14:39
Are they anything better than last place in the, uh, in the NFC North this year? I, I think, I think so. There's the Ben Johnson effect for sure. Uh, and, uh, a lot of people believe Minnesota's gonna take a step back.
14:52
They won't be the same team with J.J. McCarthy a- at the helm. So, uh, yes, they, they will not be the last place team. They will not be the cellar dwellers, uh, in the NFC North this season. There it is. Boom.
15:03
Don't even have to watch the season. They will not be last place. [laughs] Um, okay. You j- you just alluded to it.
15:09
So UFC 317, we walked in here, or I walked in, the very first thing that Dave Ross, who's a big UFC guy obviously, does UFC shows for us- Yeah... in addition to buy the books.
15:17
Um, first thing he said, he goes, "Great UFC card." To your, uh, to your, uh, vantage, from your vantage point, you agree with that? Really great one? Yeah. I, I, I think so.
15:27
You know, having a headliner of, of two title fights, uh, a guy who's, who's at, on the marquee, Ilia Topuria. You know, he, he's one of the best fighters we have currently, uh, in the sport.
15:37
He's vying for a two divisional, uh, championship, going up to lightweight to take on the former champion in Charles Oliveira, 'cause the belt, uh, is vacant. Uh, and he's expected to win.
15:48
You see those odds right there displayed. I mean, he's, uh, nearly a $5 favorite against a guy in Charles Oliveira that's a future Hall of Famer.
15:55
He holds the record for most, uh, UFC post-fight finishes and, and bonuses, uh, and a guy that's extremely difficult, uh, to deal with, whether it be on the ground or on the feet.
16:04
But I think the feet is where Topuria is gonna have the advantage in that fight.
16:10
Uh, in his previous, several of his previous fights, Oliveira has been dropped, uh, early in fights and then has to utilize, you know, his toughness a- and his, uh, his black belt, his, his, uh, off of his back to, to get back into fights.
16:24
I don't think he's gonna have that luxury against Topuria, a guy that's... You know, he knocked out Alexander Volkanovski. He knocked out Max Holloway, who's never been stopped, in his last two fights.
16:33
And I do believe Ilia Topuria carries that power up to lightweight. So to get that price down, I actually like Ilia Topuria to win the fight via TKO/KO, and I've s- I've seen it everywhere from $1.50 to $1.70.
16:45
That's where I would invest, uh, if you're gonna look to play the main event tomorrow night. I just don't think Charles Oliveira's gonna have the chin to be able to survive, uh, the left or right hand of Ilia Topuria.
16:54
Yeah. So Topuria, by the way, if you were just betting the side, w- a prohibitive favorite, minus 455. So Jordan's saying bet Topuria by knockout.
17:02
Um, Oliveira a great g- grappler, but what you're saying is h- the ability to get, to, to withstand, uh, the punches from Topuria and get Topuria on the ground, that's a whole nother story.
17:12
Not gonna happen, in your opinion. Y- y- yeah. I mean, look, uh, obviously going up in weight, Oliveira's gonna be the bigger fighter. He's gonna have the reach advantage.
17:19
Uh, we did see Ilia Topuria fight one time before at lightweight. He did get dropped in that fight by Jay Herbert from a head kick. And don't get me wrong, like, Charles Oliveira is, is a extremely talented fighter.
17:31
The problem is, is that he eats a lot of damage, and he does get dropped in a lot of fights.
17:36
In fact, when he was going on that run to win the lightweight championship against guys like Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, uh, a- and Michael Chandler, like, he gets dropped in all those fights.
17:45
I, I just don't think he's gonna be able to do that against Ilia Topuria, uh, which is why I like that price point at $1.50, $1.70 to win by KO/TKO. Okay. Fight preceding that is a title fight.
17:56
You have a, uh, parlay that involves Topuria and, uh, who you think is gonna win this one, uh, Alexandre Pantoja against Kai Kara-France. Uh, Pantoja's a minus 238 favorite.
18:09
This is a little different than the fight we just described, which is both are good on their feet, but only one good on the ground, correct? Yeah.
18:17
Uh, the, the one good on the ground is the defending champion, Alexandre Pantoja. I think that this is his division. Uh, y- you, you alluded to it, Gil. Like, he is extremely talented on the feet.
18:26
I think he's one of the best back takers and submission artists and grapplers we have, not only in the flyweight division, uh, in the sport.
18:33
I, I do think Kai Kara-France is talented, but I think when you're handicapping this fight, it's, it's a puncher's chance. Like, he does have knockout power.
18:40
He's probably the, the, the, the most powerful striker in the 125-pound division. And people that are fading Pantoja and picking Kai Kara-France are looking at, uh, Pantoja, who does eat a lot of punches.
18:51
You know, he got, he got pieced up a little bit in a, in a previous fight against Steve Erceg.
18:55
But, uh, I just think that that is the only way that, that Kai Kara-France is able to win this fight, and I do expect Pantoja at some point, uh, to get this fight to the ground, uh, take the back an- and submit Kai Kara-France.
19:07
Uh, and we've seen Kara-France s- submitted before. And look, he's got good takedown defense.
19:11
The percentages say he's at, like, an 83, 84% takedown defense, but I think those numbers are skewed because of, uh, of the opponents he's fought, not to the level of Pantoja. So, uh, couple things.
19:21
On that parlay, I like coupling Pantoja to win the fight straight up with that knockout prop that I mentioned for Topuria. So you combine those, and you get at about a +30, +135, uh, for a two-fight parlay.
19:34
But I also like a little sprinkle on Alexandre Pantoja to win via submission, and that's anywhere from +230 to +260. I think at some point he can take the back and choke out Kai Kara-France.
19:44
He's got five rounds to do it, so those would be the, the two recommended plays I have for the co-main event. Okay, let's, let's clarify that again. So Topuria, uh, by KO, straight.
19:54
Uh, then Topuria KO with the Pantoja win on a money line parlay, and then Pantoja by submission, also a bet from Jordan. Yeah. A fight before those two is one of the more closely lined fights.
20:05
I guess the only one that's closer lined is, uh, the, uh, Dariush-Mo- Moicano fight before that. But this is Brandon Royval is a slight dog here, and you like him. I, I, I do.
20:17
I, I, I like Brandon Royval, uh, just because of the experience he has. He's been in title fights. He only loses to, to, to champions or former champions. Everyone else, uh, you know, he gets through.
20:29
He's very difficult to deal with because he's a little bit of a wild man out there, but he's tremendous with his scrambles. Uh, he scraps. He's got great cardio. And Joshua Van is a talented fighter.
20:39
Uh, he's gonna try and set the record for most fights in a calendar year. Uh, but he's only 22.
20:44
He's taking this fight on short notice, and he has never fought anybody near the top five, top seven, eight of the flyweight division.
20:51
And though I do believe Joshua Van is a future title challenger, maybe even a future champion, uh, like a, kind of similar to, like, a Max Holloway when he first burst onto the scene.
21:00
I just don't think taking this fight on short notice, uh, he's gonna be able to deal with, uh, the scrambles, the pace, uh, and the variety of fighting that, that Brandon Royval is gonna bring.
21:10
So I'm surprised actually that, that Joshua Van is still hanging on as a, as a, as a favorite in this fight. So I'm grabbing Royval at plus money. Uh, even if he's $1.10, uh, come fight night, I, I still like him.
21:22
I just think that there's levels to this, and Joshua Van is not there yet. He will be eventually, but this is, uh, too much too soon for, uh, a fight against Brandon Royval.
21:30
All right, and, uh, we gotta run, but Jack Hermansson as a, as a, uh, prelim dog, big dog, yes? Yeah, +195, so that price is going up. I think people are fading him, but he's been out because of injury.
21:41
His pace, his footwork. It'll be a very boring fight- Okay... but, uh, I like Jack Hermansson, uh, to, to win against, uh, Robocop, Gregory Rodriguez, on the ma- on the main fight of the prelims. Thank you, Jordan.
21:53
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
22:04
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game+, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, that's Kelly Billin, everybody. Hey, everyone.
22:15
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Jim Feist loves that tagline, by the way. He's your buddy. He loves you. He's good. Jim Feist loves you. Shout out, Jim. Jim Feist loves you, man.
22:24
Um, thank you to Jim Feist for having us all on his show, uh, this past year.
22:29
Uh, Steve Fezzik standing by to talk about all things on the mind of Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the, uh, Hilton Super Contest.
22:37
If you, if you're nearby, he's just cur- currently standing in the sportsbook analyzing women's tennis plays. [laughs] Is he? So, yeah, yeah.
22:44
Wi- he's, he's, he's- He, he was, he was, uh, explaining to me how, how the ladies' side can, uh, can screw up these lob shots so much, so much more often than the men's side. Oh, he's a big-time tennis player.
22:55
Yeah, that's right. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. He was really going into the X's and O's. [laughs] We, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Jay Buckley, it was a pleasure meeting Jay, uh, this week.
23:03
Jay was in town, a listener of not only this show, but the whole network. He says, "Gil, thanks again for taking the time to chat when we were there. The Buckleys love ANG." He and his wife couldn't have been nicer.
23:12
Um, always a pleasure to, uh, to meet with folks, and, uh, Jay was as nice as they come. JasonH11, "The only hat that should be allowed on ANG," and there's a great picture of you in the bucket hat.
23:22
[laughs] We should really, we should really throw that up on the screen, 'cause you look fantastic. Uh, Mike Alvarez, "Let those young tennis players know" [laughs]
23:31
He said, we were talking about Dimitrov and his girlfriend. He said, "Let those young tennis players know women weaken legs," he said. [laughs] Oh, wow.
23:39
And Big Kahuna says, uh, "Your pronunciation on these MMA names and tennis names is all world." Why, thank you. That's very nice of you. Gil does his homework for UFC. Gil, Gil does his homework for UFC. Oh, dude.
23:49
Dude, I absolutely have to. Yeah, I, it's, uh- Yeah. 'Cause otherwise you're- You do a good job with it, man... otherwise it's a- You really do... it's a botch fest otherwise. Yeah. Uh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Come on.
23:57
I mean, don't get, don't get me wrong. Or do we very much appreciate our guests like, uh, Jordan Sherwood and Paul Carr, who are always there [laughs] to help us out? Yes.
24:05
We need, yes, but- By the way, I messed up, uh, I messed up the last one, apparently. It's Hermansson. Mm. Let's, uh, let's not, let's not think I got unscathed. But I, I didn't wanna...
24:13
I knew we had picks to get to with Jordan. Yeah. But I, the one thing I did wanna ask, Br- Brandon Royval, I feel like I bet, like... I just did that elbow thing, by the way- Oh, yeah... with the elbow slips off. Uh-huh.
24:22
Um, Brandon Royval, if, uh, by my memory, I bet on him, and he fought roughly 18 times during the pandemic. That, that's, that's- Oh, there was, like, there was a couple fights like that.
24:31
There was a couple of those, yeah. Uh, that Brazilian dude named Gil Gil- Gil Burns, was it? Or Gil- Gilbert Burns is a bi-- he's a big fighter...
24:41
Gilbert Burns fought, like, it felt like five times during the pandemic M- Moreno's back there, yeah. Is that- Moreno just said Gilbert Burns, yeah... did, did he fight a bunch during the pandemic? Yep. Yeah.
24:48
Well, may- at least twice anyway. I don't know. That's how I remember it. Remember it was the only thing going on. It was the only thing going on, yeah. That and table tennis So we all became, like, huge UFC fans.
24:55
Oh, we were all such experts. Yeah.
24:57
[laughs] Uh, by the way, before we get to some of this other stuff, 'cause we wanna talk NBA Rookie of the Year real quick, and the Indianapolis Colts quarterback market is pretty fascinating.
25:05
But I am taking a, a glance. Thank you for letting me know, uh, the gentleman who let me know on Twitter. Forgive me for not remembering your name, but I mentioned you earlier.
25:13
Uh, they do have women's quarters at DraftKings up, and I have to tell you, man, like, in some respects, I was just mentioning this with Alexander Bublik in one of the quarters on the men's side, how I thought, "Oh man, this is gonna be great.
25:25
I'm gonna get a great price," and it wasn't a great price. They've gotten really sharper with some of this stuff. Um, I'll get to the, to the one that I'm talking about.
25:33
But quarter one, Aryna Sabalenka's a plus 150 short shot. I would not bet her. Her grass court numbers are, are not great historically. Maddie Keys is three to one.
25:44
Your girl, Marketa Vondrousova, with the tattoos, is seven to one. [smacks lips] Um, those are pretty... And by the way, Elise Mertens, also great grass court numbers, 12 to one. Donna Vekić, 14 to one.
25:55
Uh, Vekić is not in form, though. Um, [smacks lips] Keys, Vondrousova, Mertens, pretty darn interesting. Q2 is where I'm like, man, they really get it now. Amanda Anisimova is the short shot.
26:08
I was all ready to, like, get into that and say, "Oh, hey, maybe Anisimova's gonna have value." I have her as, like, the sixth best grass court numbers last two years. She's plus 370. Paolini's five to one.
26:24
This is an example of, like, oh man, no value where I thought there might be. Right. Um, Q3, Andreva plus 210. By the way, Andreva's glass court numbers are terrible. Uh, Pegula's plus 425. Alexandrova's plus 425.
26:39
There's gonna be some rando winning this one. Trying to look at, uh- The problem is, is that I couldn't tell you who it is. I think P- Pegula's so consistent, plus 425. Maybe it's her in the end.
26:53
But Alexandrova's another player. I'm like, well, surely they'll give me a great price on Alexandrova. Nope, they're onto it. Hey, this, this is from your friend, not your producer. Yeah.
27:02
Check stations before you make any bets today. Thank you, friend. Thank you, friend. Um- They don't have quarters up yet though. I just checked that...
27:08
and by the way, Q4, Q4 just to wrap it up, Rybakina plus 240, Gauff plus 240, Iga, Iga grass tech three to one. Man, I hope she wins this tournament. MGM does. They do have... They have quarters up.
27:23
Stations does not yet. Okay. I s- I saw men's at MGM before the show. I did not see women's. That's why. I'm a- Yeah... d- I mean, dude, how many times? It's been two or three tournaments.
27:31
I mean, you have sat here, and, like, those stations numbers are so much better. So much better. And they'll take a bet on the app. They will not at the counter. Yeah, that's, that's fine That's always fun.
27:40
Hey, you know what? I'd rather- Yeah... I, I'd rather have that, though. Yep. I'd rather have that. No, I'm not complaining. Then Caesars reeling me in. They're reeling me in.
27:47
$30, Kelly, on the app, but come on down and pay $25 to park. We'll give you anything at the counter. [laughs] You, you wanted to talk about this again, NBA Rookie of the Year, where Cooper Flagg is minus 185.
27:58
Um, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, the two Rutgers teammates, are next, nine to one and plus 950 respectively, and we don't even know if Ace Bailey's gonna show up- Yeah... in Utah or not.
28:08
And then Trey Johnson leads the double digit parade. Uh, Trey Johnson with his steeple chase outfit that he had at the draft. Just a great, great fashion. It's become quite a fashion show. Oh, my God. Yeah.
28:17
Uh- Everybody else, 25 to one or longer. Why, why did you wanna bring this up again? Well, well, we didn't, we didn't go through the full odds, and, and me- Well, yeah...
28:23
I really wanna talk about Colts Week One starter more than this actually. But, uh- Yeah... just quickly wanted to lay this out.
28:27
Like, I usually, if I bet Rookie of the Year, it's, it's usually not till I see these guys in summer league action. So I would say, "Hey, let's, let's wait."
28:36
Uh, hit the pause button there before you go and bet any of these. I think, b- but I think this board is flawed a bit, Kill. Like, I, the Cooper Flagg number had come down.
28:46
It opened at, like, minus 400, I believe I saw at DraftKings right, uh, right after draft night. Uh, that was way too short. It coming back down, uh, it's more, a more realistic place. Dylan Harper I think is awesome.
28:59
I think he's gonna be awesome for that team. Man, the Spurs got a lot going with young players right now, though. I, a- and, uh, keep in mind, they've just won the past two Rookie, Rookies of the Year awards too.
29:08
I don't know if that's really gonna come into play, but just, you know, w- making notes on guys, right?
29:13
We just talked about Ace Bailey, and I brought this up yesterday, where Ace Bailey and Trey Johnson probably be the first looks for me. Well, let's make sure Ace Bailey gets to the team first- Mm-hmm. Yeah...
29:23
before we go make a bet. Um, I do think I'll be looking at guys like Trey Johnson, though, uh, in this market.
29:29
I just think that the, the scoring opportunities that he's gonna have on a Wizards team that is looking to develop younger players, and, you know, I know they just got CJ McCollum in there and stuff like that, but some of these teams have to be looking towards the future.
29:42
Um, and a guy that already had a very, very high usage rate in college, um, and'll put up a lot of shots in co- shots in college. Remember, you're looking for guys that score in this market.
29:52
Um, so that would be my first look, uh, at this point. K- Knipple and Fears at 40 to one don't interest you? I, I think, I think, well, Fears would be my, I think my next consideration, man.
30:01
That Pelicans team's gonna be a dumpster fire next year. I- it's gonna be so fun to watch, but, like, their roster construction makes no sense whatsoever.
30:08
Um, he's interesting to me 'cause I do think he'll be more involved. Kaan's just tough. I, a- and I, I think it's tough with, um, uh, with LaMelo Ball. Like, it's kinda tough to trust what he's... He's such a ball hog.
30:22
Mm-hmm. Like, Kaan Knipple's gotta be, I mean, he is going to be the three-point shooter on that team.
30:26
He- I think he's gonna slide in to what that team wants him to do as a role player very well, but is he gonna be putting up 15 a night for sure? I'm not, I'm not sold on that yet.
30:38
You know who my sneakiest play is on there? Kasparas Jaokeinas So I don't, I was gonna bring him up. I don't know enough about his college game. He scored, like, 15 points a game last, uh, last year.
30:49
But yeah, for a Heat team that has openings, sure. Great, great player. Okay. I don't hate that one. Uh, let's go to the Indianapolis Colts specifically.
30:59
Uh, the market of who is the quarterback that will take the first snap this year, first snap in week one for the Indianapolis Colts. Anthony Richardson, Kelly's guy, minus 130. Daniel Jones, Danny Dimes, minus 106.
31:14
Riley Leonard, a distant 80 to 1. Uh, Anthony Richardson, who is, uh, expected to be the next franchise quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, through two seasons, uh, he has posted a 50.6% completion rate.
31:27
That's it, 50.6%. That means that 40 point f- 49.4% of the time, the ball does not go where it's supposed to. Uh, 2,391 yards in two season, good for only 159.4 per game, 11 touchdowns, 13 picks.
31:44
He's rushed for 42.3 yards a game, 10 touchdowns, but he's also lost four of a dozen fumbles, which brings him to, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, 21 touchdowns and 17 turnovers as a pro. And health, obviously the bugaboo.
31:58
Daniel Jones, you ask, 64.1% completion rate, 208.3 yards per game career, 70 touchdowns, 47 picks in passing while rushing for 31.1 yards per game, 15 touchdowns. He also, though, the fumble bugaboo, 28 lost fumbles.
32:15
That brings him to a career total of 85 touchdowns with 75 turnovers. Uh, Adam Schefter from ESPN
32:23
really wanted to emphasize yesterday that a lot of people in the league think Daniel Jones is a lot better than the average fan does. Yeah. I feel like we've been hearing that for the past year or so.
32:34
But, but yesterday he, like, he had to tell people, and it was sort of in this way that l- that kind of was, "Oh, Daniel Jones is starting." That's how I felt about it. Okay. I, I mean, look, we've talked to what?
32:46
Two Colts fans in the past week that both think that way or w- and/or want Daniel Jones- JBJ and Wes... yes. Yes.
32:54
That-- I was [laughs] I was really hoping you weren't gonna ask me who the second one was, 'cause I forgot it was Wes. [laughs] Yeah. The, uh [laughs] I think it was Wes. I'm pretty sure. Yeah. No, it was. Yeah.
33:01
It was definitely Wes. And it sounds like they're leaning towards him starting or wanting him to start. I just wanna, I'm gonna ask you, Gil, 'cause you know I have my bias. I'm gonna ask you one thing.
33:10
Have you feel like you've seen enough of Daniel Jones to b- to have an opinion on him going forward? Yes. Do you feel the same about Anthony Richardson? Uh, yes.
33:22
I don't think so, and, uh, yeah, that's where I think you're crazy. Well, the reason I- He's only played 15 games. You gotta give the kid another look. Well, the, the, wouldn't-- you're right.
33:30
Th- that wasn't the way I would've answered that. The way I would've answered it is, he only played one meaningful season in college. Why wouldn't you sit him a little while longer? Why thrust him into this?
33:40
Let Daniel Jones start, and then bring in AR once Daniel Jones inevitably Peters out. Fezzik, next.
33:46
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:02
Back on a numbers game, Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik in the chair, Kelly behind the glass, uh, for now. Uh, we get tweets at b- @beatofthebook.
34:09
BuddhistMan, "I'm currently scouring sportsbooks to see if they're offering Arias Ace Bailey [laughs] to be the, uh, 2030 MVP of the Turkish Super League at 5,000 to 1 or better."
34:20
[laughs] Hey, man, he might have a shot there. A lot of shaving response, Stevie. Uh, Jeffrey R at, uh, LL Wave Rider, he says, uh, "Try liquid soap instead of shaving cream. I'm a cue ball, so I've got some experience."
34:32
How about that? And then, uh, this is from S- [laughs] SN Right, Steven N. Right, "I got my shaving advice from Kramer. I use butter."
34:40
[laughs] And then, uh, oh, James Sat says, "Bro got me a few years ago a mirror that hangs in the shower that doesn't fog up. Game changer." Oh, that's an interesting one.
34:51
And then Off in the Dark, "Sorry if I missed this today. Turned in late. Is the Wimbledon podcast available to listen to live versus waiting until the recording? Thanks, and have a good weekend."
35:01
Uh, everybody back there, is, are we doing it live on YouTube, uh, the Wimbledon podcast? Twitter? Anything? Yes. I'm being told yes. Which one? YouTube TV? Yes, YouTube TV.
35:12
YouTube TV live for the Wimbledon podcast coming up in 45 minutes. Um, okay, let's recap all the best bets before we get back to Stevie here. Um, I still have my, uh...
35:22
By the way, the Detroit Tigers 16 to 1 is a loser for the month of June.
35:25
I have yet to make my July bet, uh, yet in Major League Baseball's most wins market, and I have yet to make, because they just came out here right before the show or during the show, quarter bets at Wimbledon, so I will have those, uh, for VSiN subscribers at vsin.com/picks.
35:40
Kelly, Hawks to win the Eastern Conference 55 to 1 in the National Basketball Association, and he's got the Bills most regular season wins at plus 450. He added those, uh, this week.
35:53
St- uh, by the way, I added Katel Marte 90 to win for NL MVP this week as well.
35:58
Steve Fezzik's best bets, uh, he gave out two baseball plays today, Cardinals, Guardians under eight and a half, Mariners, Rangers under seven and a half.
36:05
Stevie's on a baseball heater, 55 and 19, I believe he said, uh, in his last 74 plays. And the Pirates under 66 and a half wins, and I've seen Steve's, uh, apps, and these bets just cascade down your account.
36:21
You've bet this multiple times. Absolutely, yeah. And- I'm sure I'm violating the Kelly criterion, but you know what? I've already c- I've mentally cashed my Pirates pre-flop under 77 [laughs] and under 74. Yeah.
36:32
So it's like, uh, uh, those have already won. Ma- many violations of the Kelly criterion on that. Jordan Sherwood's best bets for UFC 317, Ilia Topuria, uh, by knockout at minus 175.
36:44
Then he's got the Topuria knockout, [clears throat] pardon me, with a Pandogia straight up win parlay. So Topuria knockout, Pandogia win parlay pays about plus 123. Always shop around.
36:55
Brandon Royval is a slight dog in the fight right before those two final ones at plus 105. And then the final of the prelims, Jack Hermansson at plus 180, the big dog from Jordan today in UFC 317.
37:08
And then Paul Carr, not to be outdone with some soccer, uh, both with the, uh, FIFA, uh, Club World Cup and the Gold Cup. Gold Cup plays Mexico, Saudi Arabia under two and a half goals in that game.
37:22
And like Dallin Cuff yesterday, Panama to win the Gold Cup at eight to one. As far as the, uh, FIFA Club World Cup, he's got Flamengo to advance plus 235 versus Bayern Munich.
37:35
That is your VSiN best bets of the day brought to you by the official bank of VSiN, G Bank. Introducing the $500 trifecta from G Bank, First Bet, and VSiN. All you need to do is open a G Bank Visa signature credit card.
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38:07
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38:18
Terms and conditions apply. Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik in the house, @FezzikSports on Twitter. By the way, follow at your own peril. He's not the same on Twitter as he is in real life.
38:31
Not a very nice human being on Twitter. Why can't you help yourself, Stevie? Why? I've been better and better. Have you? I, I have. Okay. Like, wh- so, you know, being complimentary of, um, of everyone.
38:43
But what a great group we had lunch with this week. Oh, I brought it up yesterday. Jim Feist's group. Yes. Nicest guys. Matt Humans and Wes Reynolds from VSiN were there. Steve was, Steve Fezzik was there.
38:53
Bill Krackomberger, uh, Scott Spreitzer was there, uh, Brandi McKay. I met, uh, Jeff Whitelaw for the first time- Mm-hmm... after all these years. Just a great, just really awesome to be there.
39:06
Everybody who was, who was l- lucky enough to be on Jim Feist's show this year. I put Al on my VIP list. All right? Al DeMarco at Dom DeMarco's Pizza.
39:13
Y- y- yeah, so I p- I, I, I, I, I went ahead and put Albert on my, um, my VIP list, and so now the, the, the...
39:20
I'm, I'm so nervous because he hasn't been on my list, so the first two days have gone great with the plays I've given him, so I'm, I, like, text him. It's like, "It's not always this easy."
39:27
It's, it's not, it's not sustainable at this level. Uh, all right, uh, teasers. Teasers in general and then NFL teasers, what say you, sir?
39:36
All right, so teaser basic strategy, and you hear this all the time, and people get it wrong still, but teasers are dead in Vegas. Can no longer play teasers any sport.
39:46
There's always exceptions to the rule, but does these, in general- Been for a little while now, right? Uh, yeah. So what happened is that it used to be you could play selectively at minus 100. Then it was minus 110.
39:58
Some people would call minus 100 even money, by the way. Then minus 115, minus 120. [laughs] But now every single place in town is minus 125 or higher, and frankly, I stopped paying attention because you just...
40:10
The way the math works out, you just can't win. So no more good advantage teasers in all of Las Vegas, the sports betting capital of the world. Anything over minus 120, don't do it. Forget about it. Okay.
40:22
So minus 120, still viable, still offered at several books, including DraftKings, so. Okay. I think the broader advice for new bettors or newish bettors has to do with teasers in general beyond that.
40:32
Don't, i- if it's not the NFL, don't tease, period. Don't tease, period.
40:37
And there, there's always the exception to the rule where some book deals some college game, you know, like minus eight, minus 125 on a low total, and that would be tease, teasable.
40:46
But in general, don't tease anything else. Don't tease anything else. And by the way, b- beyond the math of that, i- intuitively, you can kind of get that, too, right?
40:56
Because you know that scoring in college football is much more volatile than it is in the NFL. You know that scoring in the NBA is much more random than it is in the NFL, so the value of each point is that much less.
41:09
So it makes sense that way. And you don't even get six points in, in NBA. Correct. They give you four points, so it's even- Right... so it's, so it's even worse.
41:15
But the good news is, see, there's still books like DraftKings that you can play at minus 120, and then the Wong basic strategy.
41:21
Stanford Wong wrote a book, Sharp Sports Betting, and of course you're gonna tease through the three, through the seven in the NFL.
41:27
So you take a two-point dog up to plus eights, or you take a home favorite minus eight down to minus two.
41:33
Now, what a lot of people are doing now, they're saying, like, a seven-point favorite is a Wong teaser, or a seven-and-a-half point road favorite is a Wong teaser. No. No. No.
41:42
Both, the, a, a road favorite cannot be used as a teaser, uh, because they just don't win as often as the home favorite. And I'm just anticipating what, what a listener would, some listeners would think right now.
41:53
Some people would shout back at you, "What about totals? Are there, do you ever tease totals?" Um, no. There are a few people that swear by preseason low totals- Yes...
42:04
where they'll take an extra not s- uh, six points, but 10 points- 10 points... and tease that 32- 'Cause, 'cause it gets so low, it's ridiculous... to over 22.
42:12
And, and what happens is basically even if the offenses can't play a lick, the defense then will get you- Right... a defensive score which will be just enough to get you to 16 to 10 in the preseason.
42:22
We've done that on this show before. Yes. By the way, the Wong teasers are, uh, subject to the total though, right? Yeah. W- um, no, but they're better. The lower the teaser- The lower the-... the better they, they are.
42:35
The lower the total. So if you have a marginal teaser, thinking about playing it or not, and the total's 51, maybe past 41, go for it. Um, okay. Last thing you wanted to talk about here, gouging in Vegas.
42:47
You have something to say about that? It, it... I was in New York City. New York is cheaper to eat than Las Vegas on the Strip. I was shocked by this. I went to gourmet restaurants in New York.
42:56
I went in, in, you know, mom-and-pop places. And in general, the, the restaurants I go to Vegas, and the drinks especially, are more expensive in Vegas than anywhere else.
43:05
Like, think about the pools when you go in Vegas, like how much, you know, a, a, a strawberry daiquiri is gonna run you, you know, $35 in Las Vegas. But I think the gouging is gonna slow, because if I
43:19
judge things by the offers I'm getting, because I'm, you know, I'm, I'm in the system and the like, and maybe I haven't played at a place for a couple years, and here it comes in the mail, and, "Oh, we're gonna give you a, you know, $20 free bet or a $50 free bet once a week," and the like.
43:32
And I'm getting more of those offers than I've gotten in years, and I think that means Vegas is slowing, and they're trying to do things. That is absolutely the barometer for trying to figure that out. It ha- it is.
43:43
It has to be. Has to be. Has to be. And, and you believe this started at the Super Bowl? 'Cause we got some data that said, "Oh, the Super Bowl wasn't down," but we know from being here something was amiss. Exactly.
43:53
And I feel like that's when, that was the point where folks were like, "Okay, I can just stay home. We can have a good time with friends. We don't have to spend all this money having the Vegas experience."
44:08
And that, that's the only way they're gonna learn. When we hosted the Super Bowl, the gouging got so out of control, it's like that Fonzie moment, jumping the shark- Jumping the shark...
44:16
in, in, in, in Happy Days, where basically that's where the show went downhill, and that's where the gouging just got out of control was when Vegas hosted the Super Bowl.
44:25
Good jumping the shark knowledge by you, by the way. Origin. Well done. Happy days. Uh, Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen. Again, @FezzikSports. Follow at your peril. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it, as always.
44:34
Thank you, Gil. Money Moves is next. Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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