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Jun 2, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 2, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 2, 2025
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33:51
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat rock music] It is a numbers game here on a Monday.
0:15
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin right here with me. Hey, man. Thank you for giving us, you know, about an hour and 50 minutes of really good sports talk and 10 minutes of nonsense.
0:27
We appreciate you being here with us. That's right. Absolutely. It's good to have you back in the chair you belong, Matt, filling in what gives- Oh-... Gil's out... man, it is. Uh, it's good times being up here.
0:35
Listen, the 4:45 wake-up doesn't bother me too much. It really doesn't. Yeah. You're not- I'm a morning- You're not affected. Yeah... I'm a morning, I'm a morning guy.
0:40
Like, I just- Yeah, you're up, like, an hour later anyways. Yeah. We get a lot of weird people that work here at VSiN, actually, that wor- wake up extremely early when they don't have to. Yeah. It's, I, I...
0:48
Well, I kind of have to to get the day going. I, I really don't mind it at all. Paul Sporer gonna join us to talk some baseball a little bit later. Catching up with Paul. He hadn't talked to him- Yeah... in a while.
0:57
See what's going on with him and Ben Wilson from whatever island that he's at. You know, I mean, the villas that are across the world that is Ben Wilson and his life. Is, is he actually on an island this week?
1:05
I, I mean, like, we're gonna find out. We're gonna fi- It's a video call. We're gonna find out. At one of the family, at one of the family's compounds, at least. [laughs] For sure.
1:11
He's somewhere across this great nation of ours at, at one of the compounds. And so it is going to be amazing to talk to Ben Wilson. We'll get some tennis thoughts from him.
1:18
We'll get some college baseball thoughts from him as well, and maybe e- everything in between. You know, I'm sure he's got some golf thoughts as well. Oh, totally. Yeah. Golf, baseball with Ben. And curling.
1:26
NBA finals curling. Yeah. Come on. Yeah. Curling. If there was curling going on, we would get his curling thoughts. Ben did grow up curling. Did you- That is not, that is... We, we're not making that up. That happened.
1:35
Th- uh, that did happen. Did you know that there's a c- uh, curling section on Ken Pom's website? This, I, I... This was recently brought to my attention. [laughs] Retested. Yes. Yes.
1:44
Recently brought to my attention, which I guess, like, this is something, there must be an edge. There must be an edge.
1:49
I believe Drew Dinsick's the one who brought it up on this show, and Gil and I were both like, "Wait, what are you talking about?" And sure enough, there is a little curling logo over there on the Ken Pom site.
1:57
You can get cur- uh, curling Ken Pom ratings. Go, go at it. I know Gil's not in today, but if you wanna tweet at us and let us know what you're thinking about everything going on in the sports world, we are always here.
2:06
So @MattBrownM2 and, of course, @KellyBidlin. That's an E. The Kelly, Kelly with an E. Do you say Kelly with an E, or you just go with Kelly Bidlin these days? Uh, I go, I go Kelly with a E-Y is usually what I'll say.
2:16
Oh, okay. 'Cause people ask me, "Do you go with an E, or do you go with two Es?" 'Cause it's not really with an E, it's with two Es, right? Yeah, yeah. But no. Okay. I go E-Y, E-Y.
2:23
It's always the end that's the, uh, the weird.
2:25
It has nothing to do with the fact that Kel- Kelly and I are two of the three golf guys here on the network, that I want to start things with what Scottie Scheffler did at the Memorial this week in winning by four strokes and taking home another cool $4 million
2:37
for taking that tournament down. He was first in tee to green. He was first in approach. He was first on scrambling. He has won nine straight tournaments when he has had a 54-hole outright lead.
2:50
He has won three of his last four starts. He has nine top 10s in 12 starts this season. He has no finish outside the top 25 in any tournament that he has played, and he is no worse than T8 since the beginning of March.
3:06
We are watching absolute greatness right now, what is happening out there on the golf course. Last year, 16 top 10s in 19 events. He won seven times.
3:17
If you go the season before that, that's when we still had the wraparound season, so it's 2022/2023. 17 top 10s in 23 starts. He has not missed a cut since August of 2022.
3:33
That is the unbelievable streak that we are watching with Scottie Scheffler every single time that he tees it up. Out there against the deepest pool of competition that we've ever seen in professional golf.
3:44
And you can't help but compare him and Tiger Woods. And I'm not going to sit here and get into this massive debate about him and Tiger Woods. It's two different eras. Everything has changed. They...
3:55
The, everybody is longer. The balls are different. The clubs are different. They had to change golf courses for Tiger Woods. But now these courses are longer.
4:03
These courses are built to try and attack some of these bombers, strategically place bunkers, putting some trees in the way, doing whatever they can, pinching the landing zones for these guys.
4:15
And Scottie Scheffler continues to go out each and every week and prove that he is the best golfer in the world, no questions asked. Don't bring Rory up. Don't bring Bryson up.
4:26
And really and truly don't bring up anybody else outside of those two names when we're talking about the best golfer in the world.
4:33
I'm getting to know Scottie Scheffler's kid better than I'm getting to know the rest of these, uh, golfers on the- [laughs] I've seen his kid three, three, three weeks in a row. Like, three starts in a row. Wow.
4:42
We're gonna, we're gonna know when he loses his first tooth. We're gonna know when he gets the full head of hair. Yeah.
4:46
When he starts talking, we're gonna know because the kid gets more TV time than anybody outside of the final three groups in these golf tournaments because he holds the kid right there at the end.
4:55
I'm like, "Oh, there's Scottie's kid again. Look at that. He looks like he's grown a couple of inches since three weeks ago." I mean, this is what we're getting out of Scottie Scheffler right now.
5:03
And, and again, Kelly, you can't help but compare him to Tiger because it's the only time we've seen a run like this. The only thing I will say, the talent pool is deeper now than it was when Tiger was doing his thing.
5:15
Tiger still went and did it. You still have to go win. You still have to play consistent every single week. Mm-hmm. You still have to go get it done, and he did it. And it is... I grew up through both of the eras.
5:23
It was ridiculously impressive.
5:25
But what Scottie's doing right now against not just three or four or five guys that might could tee it up and win, which is what Tiger was going up against, where we have literally 20, 25, maybe 30 guys on any given week that could tee it up and win out there on a tough course in tough conditions.
5:41
We have to at least bring it into the conversation that it's not crazy to compare him to Tiger, because everyone wants to just dismiss it, right? It's like, "You can't compare him to Tiger." Yeah. "There's no way."
5:53
And they just blow it off, right? Well, that is not what we're getting here with Scottie Scheffler. This is actually something truly remarkable. Uh, it really is. I think it's...
6:02
I, I think it's interesting because you're hearing a lot of that conversation today about-[smacks lips] comparing it to Tiger and okay, what, the fields that they played in.
6:11
The one I'll say, Matt, is right now, there is weaker competition than what we've had, I think, in a while of where that mid-range and that second-tier, third-tier golfers are at.
6:21
I think there's a lot of question marks on the board right now with... We- we've seen glimpses from Ludvig Åberg this year. We've seen glimpses from Justin Thomas.
6:28
But the consistency's not really been there, and it's really been Rory and Scottie all season long with Br- Bryson DeChambeau kind of the other guy there. Um, and I know we're gonna talk some U.S.
6:38
Open here i- in a bit on the show, but I, I, I just don't know how you look beyond those three when you, when you are attack- attacking another major. We've seen it play out, the, at the Masters and the PGA.
6:48
Uh, those guys are just so far above everybody else right now.
6:51
And then I think we've, we've gotten to the point in the season, like you're talking about, where Scheffler is another step above tho- where those two are at. So, um, man, it's, it's his tour right now.
7:02
I don't know about you. I regret, uh, not jumping in on him in-game on Saturday. About middle of the round you were still seeing around pre-tournament odds on him, and he was at that point about T3, T4.
7:13
He had three, four shots back. But I, I think you have to, you have to be okay. You're always gonna get taxed on the Scottie Scheffler in-game bets, right? To try to get in on him in the game.
7:23
We've talked about it for years. You and I have said it for years- Yeah... of, hey, maybe let the tournament start, see if he drifts back. You're just not getting the odds that we used to see on that a couple years ago.
7:32
I got greedy because I had so many chasers, and I played the without, I played the without market this week. Yeah. We talked about this on Long Shots. Yep. And so I'm going, "Okay, Scottie can win. I don't care.
7:42
I just need one of these other dudes chasing to finish in second." Well, none of them did, and so, uh, you know, here we are. I di- What it's all about...
7:47
I just think it's like on Sa- so on Saturday I'm sitting there looking at it, and he's about plus 240. And i- it's, okay, there's three guys ahead of him, and he's four shots off.
7:54
Fine, that's still a better position of where Scottie Scheffler's at. Mm. For that number, I'd rather bet into that number than bet his pre-t- uh, his pre-tournament number, uh, at closer to three to one.
8:04
So I, I think it's stuff like that you gotta k- uh, start thinking about when you're betting golf these days. Um, I don't know about you. My betting card, uh, went really, really, really bad.
8:12
A lot of, uh, placement markets about one or two shots off. Luckily, though, Scottie Scheffler did have him one and done this week though, so that's- There you go. There you go. Uh.
8:18
You get at least cash that $4 million in your account for, for that. We have ourselves an NBA Finals. It is the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Indiana Pacers.
8:26
The series price minus 700 on the Thunder, five to one if you wanna take the Pacers in this one. Uh, Kelly, I think the pricing is correct.
8:37
Yes, you are getting an offense in Oklahoma City that can match and run and do the different things that the Pacers can.
8:44
I think Pacers under the radar had one of the better offenses that people didn't pay attention to throughout the course of the season, unless you were a hardcore NBA fan.
8:50
You just don't think about the Pacers in that fashion.
8:53
But it's a whole different animal than what you got with the Knicks now, because you are getting a team that not only is elite on the offensive side of the ball, but is also elite on the defensive side of the ball, which is w- not what you got in this series with the Knicks.
9:05
You attacked Brunson. You attacked KAT. It worked over and over and over again.
9:10
You start getting the reports coming out that the teammates were actually kinda grumbling about Karl-Anthony Towns and his defense, or lack thereof, throughout the course of not only the playoffs, but the season as well.
9:22
Apparently in practice it was kinda like he didn't really care all that much about, you know, doing the switches right [chuckles] and all the things that really matter. Shocking. You know? Yeah.
9:31
A- and s- and of course it gets exposed in the playoffs and, and you watch this team go in and just attack these two guys, Brunson from a size standpoint, Karl-Anthony Towns from maybe an effort standpoint, on the defensive side, and the Pacers move on.
9:43
That's, that's it. Find themselves as massive, massive underdogs here to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it's kinda hard for me to poke a hole in that number. Yeah, totally. I, I mean, look, I think this is...
9:54
A- all credit to the Pacers, they have been incredible to watch in this playoffs, and I think they do have a little bit of that, uh, just winner kind of amazing mojo heading into the finals.
10:05
Like, they are kinda that team of destiny this year. I get it. Um, having said all that, if we're just looking at series price, and I made a couple bets.
10:12
We'll work our way through it, through these here the next couple segments.
10:14
But, um, I, I mean, that, that minus 650, I know it's minus 700 if you're watching at home right now, uh, is what you're seeing on your screen over at DraftKings.
10:21
There are a lot of places where this is sub, uh, minus 700. I know we don't have a lot of people with, uh, the bankroll to run out and bet that. Man, it's cheap, though. It's cheap.
10:31
SGA then compared for finals MVP is cheap. Uh, you're seeing about this series priced like the Pacers and the Denver Nuggets. I had Denver, uh, that was basically the same odds that we were getting on that series.
10:43
I had Denver rated a little bit tougher than this Pacers team. The biggest problem with this, this ga- or this matchup is just the matchups on the court. Mm.
10:51
Everything that the Pacers have succeeded at doing throughout this playoff run, the Thunder can match them or even do better.
10:58
If you wanna go back to pace statistics throughout the regular season, uh, the Pacers were up there top three. Guess what? So were the Thunder. They went even faster than the Indiana Pacers.
11:07
So they're gonna be okay playing them that way. Uh, I think it's a terrible draw for the Pacers. We'll talk through some of this, uh, here the rest of the show.
11:13
But there are, I think there's a couple different ways you can get in on the Thunder. Yeah, we'll look at game one here next segment. That's sitting about nine right now in favor of the Thunder at home, 230 and a half.
11:23
The total, if you think the Pacers win the thing outright, you can get it at plus 320. A bunch of other news and notes we've got to hit on inclue- including a big promotion over in Major League Baseball.
11:36
Could that make a difference there in the AL Central? Just getting going here on a Numbers Game.
11:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
A Numbers Game here on a Monday. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander to my left. Friend and colleague Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me. That is Kelly with a B-Y- Hey, what?... as you all know out there.
12:15
Here Monday to Thursday, so hang out with us for a couple hours, see what's going on, you know? Listen, we're gonna talk all kinds of craziness, and
12:23
we'll get to golf, we will get to, you know, baseball, we'll get to all of it. Let, l- you know, we continue this NBA finals discussion here, Kelly, because, you know, we've, we've...
12:33
I've texted with you throughout the course of the playoffs in which I have said, "You know, outside of a couple of spurts here and there, these finals have really been," and I'll just, uh, I'll, I'll censor myself.
12:46
Conference finals? Yeah. Y- yeah, have been not great. I'll just censor myself with, with that. And, you know, you can't help how it all plays out, how the match-ups work.
12:56
Some teams, obviously we know, you know, some teams match up better with other teams.
13:00
Some teams are going to go on ridiculous heaters like the Pacers have in which they shoot 50%, [laughs] you know, from the floor, from three and all of this.
13:08
And, you know, sports are weird in general, but it does get us to a final here, though, in which, like we said, minus 700 in the series price here.
13:17
And so let's try and talk through different ways that maybe we can go about betting this. I mean, if you don't want to bet the minus 700, if that isn't for your bankroll, there's always just total games.
13:29
There's series correct scores out there. I mean, if you think Oklahoma City sweeps this thing plus 260, the gentleman sweep is plus 250.
13:38
If you think the Pacers can get scrappy here, Kelly, and get it out to six games or seven games, plus 450, plus 500.
13:45
Now, if that's your honest belief, you could just bet both of those and you're gonna make mon- you know, and you're gonna- Right, yeah... and you're gonna make money.
13:50
I mean, if that's, if that's your honest belief, you believe that the Pacers can get two games in this series and, and drag it out to six or seven, plus 450, plus 500, go and bet both of them, move on with your life.
14:01
But how are we going to try to attack this? 'Cause again, for most people out there, I know there's some high rollers that listen to the program, but for most people,
14:10
paying $700 to win 100 is just not really within their, their bankroll. Yeah, absolutely. So we'll start, um...
14:16
Look, I get the luxury of rolling, uh, rolling into this with some finals tickets already in pocket- Mm-hmm... for Thunder. But, look, there's, there's a couple ways I think you can bet this, and you, you hit on 'em.
14:25
I, like I, I already added one, one other series bet, Thunder 4-1 series correct score. Mm. That, that's where I started. I do think it goes five. That's where we're most likely ending at.
14:34
Yes, it's- That's, uh, plus 250 at DraftKings anyway. Which- Yeah... y- which if you have DraftKings available to you, Matt, that is a great price. Okay. 'Cause the best I was able to get was plus 215. Okay.
14:42
So, uh, plus 250, I think that's a great price on it. I think you could combine that with, you know, compare the lay two and a half games, right?
14:50
Or you could bet, kinda like you hinted at with going longer, you could do that with going shorter, too, right? You could bet- Yeah...
14:55
both Thunder to win, uh, win in a sweep, or Thunder to win in five, or Thunder to win in five, Thunder to win in six. I think I like Thunder in five. That's all I'm gonna play, Matt. Mm-hmm.
15:05
Gun to my head, I think this likely goes six rather than a sweep. Yeah. I do think the Pacers have that ability. Um, so I... Look, I think that's ways you could attack it. I, I, I'm gonna play the Thunder in five.
15:17
I think, though, if I had nothing on this series, I'd probably split up a little bit of Thunder in five, Thunder in six, um, or pay the price to lay a game and a half and not the full two games- Mm-hmm... and a half.
15:28
I think another one that caught my eye that I rarely play these unless I'm kinda doing a weird outcome, but another one that caught my eye is there is shops where you can get this under minus 300.
15:39
I saw a minus 290 on the Thunder to win game one and to win the series. Thunder have been incredible at home. I think that's a way to get involved in this series at a cheaper price. Yeah, so I saw a minus 275 on that.
15:51
I think it's a great bet.
15:52
So that could take you down from that minus 700 to at least minus 275, and I think your handicap, if you're playing them confidently at minus 700, is that they're gonna get it done in game one at home as it is anyway, right?
16:03
Right, yes. And so that then just takes it down, you know, well under half of what you'd have to pay just for the series price as it sits right now.
16:11
Again, as we kinda talk this through, there's, there's just the generic game totals, and that's, you know, does cover you at least a little bit should the Pacers go out there and shock the world.
16:21
That being said, Kelly, you look at the Pacers' side of things, they're not gonna sweep. So 45 to one, but I mean- Mm-hmm... I think we're all pretty much on the...
16:28
Four to one, 30 to one, four to two, 14 to one, and then four to three, 15 to one. I'm not playing six games or seven games generically there. I, I'm just... I would play 30, 14, and 15. You know what I'm saying?
16:40
I mean, like you just do that, right? Hmm. You just play four one, four two, four three all on Indiana at those prices- Yeah... as opposed to...
16:48
Because a, a generic seven games, I don't think that you're, you're sitting here thinking that's going to be the case. So I, I... That's how I would play it if I'm leaning towards the Pacers, right?
16:55
I'll just take, play the Pacers in these, you know, four one, four two, four three scenarios in which we're getting these ridiculously high numbers. I, I like that. I mean, what Matt- You know?...
17:03
what Matt's doing there is you're getting a much b- you're getting a much better series price on the Pacers. Yeah. You're just assuming they don't sweep the thing. Yeah. Right?
17:09
You're just taking the sweep out and baking in a little extra, uh, money into that. Yeah, I, I think that's a good way to look. I don't know about you, but I do think these first, it...
17:17
Where, where the Pacers look, they have shown up in these game ones and surprised. I don't expect that to happen on Thursday night. Hmm.
17:23
I think that we are looking at, uh, a, a Thunder team that, that, that is overmatched for them. Um, I think that the only advantage that Indiana really has in this series is the coaching advantage. Right.
17:33
I think Carlisle will be able to make some of the in-game adjustments, some of the, uh, m- you know, in-between games in, in, in the series adjustments, uh, better than D'Antoni.
17:42
I just don't know how much, how many adjustments D'Antoni's [laughs] really gonna need to make throughout the course of this series. Uh, so look, they've g- Indiana's got that advantage.
17:50
I don't think the Thunder are getting surprised or anything like that- Hmm... when we look at the first couple games at home.
17:55
Um, so I do think those are ways of playing, playing that win at ho- win the first game, then win the series. I think it's a good look. Just a reminder what the Thunder have done at home, uh, this season.
18:05
35 and 6 in the regular season. They're eight and one in the playoffs, and the net rating at home in the nine playoff games is at 24.7. That is ridiculous. Um, they're not even... I...
18:15
They're shooting 36% from home, uh, from three i, in, in the playoffs, Matt. Mm-hmm. Like that, that could be a little bit better. Yeah. It's not even great. Like it's better than what they've done on the road.
18:25
It could actually be better aga- uh, uh, against this Indiana team. So I think, I think they're a freight train to r- uh, to try to go against at home where you can.
18:33
I think where we've seen the Thunder struggle in the playoffs, and the question is how real is it, is on the road. Four and three on the road in the seven games.
18:40
They've had a minus 6.2 net rating, shot under 30% from three on the road this season. I think if there was any spot that I was gonna, uh, going to try to attack OKC, it would be when this series shifts back to Indiana.
18:52
On a game by game basis, game one is sitting nine right now at the majority of books out there, nine and a half at MGM, nine and a half at, um, Fanatics as well, and ESPN Bet.
19:05
So if you wanna get the extra half point with Indiana, those three books are giving it to you.
19:10
If you want the flat nine, DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, Circa out here behind us, if you have access to them, they're all sitting at the flat nine.
19:19
Looking at about 230 and a half is the prevailing total here in this one. Kelly, the one thought I think that you could look at here from Oklahoma City is if you're, if you're bullish on Oklahoma City and you're gonna...
19:31
If you're willing to lay nine, probably willing to lay 11, right? Mm. You're probably willing to lay 11 and a half. Yeah. You're probably willing...
19:37
Like, so it's, i- if you think that this is going to be a, a l- a clinic from Oklahoma City at home here, sure, put half your bet, 70% of your bet there on the nine.
19:47
But I'm probably playing some alts as well because you're y- if y- when, when you're talking about winning by double digits, you are, you're predicting a butt kicking, you know? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
19:55
I mean, O- OKC at home, I'm never gonna blame anybody in this series for doing- Yeah... for be- for making bets like that. Yeah.
20:02
Ho- honestly, it's something that, um, I've probably gotten a little bit lazy with as an NBA bettor of just I think you should probably do, be doing that in most NBA games that you bet.
20:10
Leaning into your convictions a little bit more. Yeah, exactly. Right, right. Le- yeah. How, how often is this, is your number g- or is the spread gonna be off your number by exactly one point? Mm, mm. Right?
20:19
It's worth laddering up a little bit. Uh, regardless, I'm with you on that. I do think there's a better chance if we see an OKC blowout that it comes in game two than game one. Mm.
20:29
But look, we are still do- dealing with two younger teams. Uh, I think this also lends to the under a little bit in game one, too. How effective does everybody come out- Yeah...
20:38
is a little bit of a, a, y- you know, the, like the old boxing, uh, boxing expression, right? Getting a feel for your opponent sort of thing in game one. I could see that a little bit more, uh, Matt.
20:48
Maybe it's a second half where the Thunder run away with it in game one. I, I think I could see that more in game two. I do re- I really like the bet. Mm.
20:55
Like, if I had no- nothing in pocket right now and I had my, uh, NBA finals, uh, tickets on the, on the Thunder, I would be doing that game one in the series. Yeah.
21:03
I think under, at under minus 300, I think that's a great bet to at- to, uh, attack the series. Over on the MVP side of things, it's hard to make a case for anybody other than Shai on the Thunder side.
21:13
If you do believe in the Pacers, we already saw Pascal Siakam took the conference finals MVP, so it's not just going to automatically be Haliburton.
21:23
We're looking at minus 600 on Shai, plus 750 for Haliburton, 16 to 1 on Siakam. Is there a case to be made for anybody else at all? No. Right? I mean, it's, it- I mean, no, but also- Not really, right? I mean, the...
21:38
And this is a keep in mind, like, i- it's, I, I know it's still not an attractive number, but we talk about this a lot with a Patrick Mahomes- Mm... in the Super Bowl, right?
21:46
This number on Shai, almost anything better than what you're getting series price, I, I, I'd almost say pull the trigger, Matt.
21:53
It, it's- Yeah, because there's just n- very, very few Sims out there that are ever gonna land on Chet Holmgren- Yeah... or Williams or whatever, you know what I'm saying? It's just, it's just not gonna happen.
22:02
I mean, most like- most likely other outcome to me is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets, gets hurt during the series- Mm... and Jalen Williams is probably winning this at 35 to 1. Yeah.
22:11
And if that's the case, you know what? You could put 90% of it on Shai and then put 10% of it on Williams as a cover your rear end. Yeah, [laughs] if you wanted to. As a safe. Yeah.
22:20
I guess it could be Chet, too, but I, [laughs] I think J-Dub's a little more likely. Yeah.
22:24
Guys, uh, we are running a special right now where you are going to get 14 months of everything we do over on VSiN Pro for just $199.
22:31
And if you go in and use the promo code BOOK right now, B-O-O-K, we are going to give you a free pre-order of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Applebaum. So again, go in, vsin.com/subscribe, $199 for 14 months.
22:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
[upbeat music] A numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Brown on the desk for Gil Alexander. Kelly Biblin here with me as we roll through what's going on over in the golf world.
23:14
A quick bow on the Memorial I gave my, what was, what was determined to be a rant by Jesse Watters. I thought it was just a take on Scottie Scheffler a little bit earlier, but- Here was the short version.
23:25
Scottie Scheffler's good at golf. Yeah, there you go. I'd spent a whole, yeah, three minutes talking about it and basically saying just that. But he does win the Memorial back to back now, $4 million for his efforts.
23:38
So good for Scottie Scheffler. He's actually good for the caddie. And yeah, yeah. Another guy who I don't think we really need to worry about their bank accounts much. Man, let me tell you. You get... I don't know.
23:48
Certainly he's worked out some sort of other deal, or maybe not. Scottie Scheffler seems like such an incredible guy that he still just pays 10% every single time, so he's just hucking out 400K like- Oh...
23:57
with every win. You're going down the road of, like, w- how you tip out properly when you win big contests or jackpots in this town. Like, the, the percentage needs to come down.
24:07
Well, no, I'm just wondering if the caddie goes to Scottie and says, "Hey, man, look." I'll take less, just don't kick me off the bag. Uh, yeah, like, like, "I'm good for 8%," or whatever, "I'm good for 5%.
24:17
You win so much money, I'm good for, I'm good for it." I'm gonna guess that conversation hasn't come up at all. That's what I'm saying. Yeah. With Scottie Scheffler, probably not. Yeah, Scottie Sh- yeah.
24:25
He just this guy, you know what he says? He probably not onl- he hands it to him with a smile every time, you know? Just like- Absolutely, yeah...
24:31
"Here's your 400K," and he smiles and- Have you ever heard anybody doing that? To, to- They pa-... making the caddie take less? Well, I've heard of fill-in caddies agreeing to. Right.
24:40
So, like, when they- And, and we had, what? The whole Couture incident- Yeah... right out in Mexico. Yeah, like I've heard fill-in caddies taking less. And- Me too. Yeah. So I don't know.
24:48
I, it's just something to think about whenever you're like, "Okay, this guy's winning $20 million a year." You know, like- God, I would love to be the, a fly on the wall in that conversation though...
24:59
you know what I'm saying? Like, it's like- Yeah, yeah, no, I get it... like, the caddy's making two mil right off the top. We're- You're a team, Matt, you gotta pay him the two mil...
25:07
plus whatever side stuff he's got going on. Because if you're Scottie Scheffler's caddy, you're making money elsewhere, for sure. You got money coming in. He's probably sponsored by Rolex or something.
25:17
Oh, yeah, yeah, I, we had NetJets and- Yeah... yeah, all that sort of stuff. The, uh, Ted Scott, I was blanking on his name. Yeah, Ted Scott, yeah. Yeah. Um,
25:24
it's a, imagine, imagine being in the room for that conversation though, where you're like, "Look, I'm winning a lot. You're taking home a lot. Like, we might need to dial this back." Oh, that would get ugly quick.
25:34
You gotta be, you gotta be prepared to, uh, to, to lose Ted on the bag forever. I don't think Scottie Scheffler wants to have that happen. We'll get into the golf here as we move up to Canada.
25:43
Uh, real quick for everybody out there, this is just a PSA, the Masters lottery is now open if you wanna go in. If you love rejection, go in and sign up.
25:52
Fill out, fill out all that just to get an email in about three weeks that says your selection was not picked. But it is out there for anyone that wants to go inside. So how many times has that happened to you?
26:01
27 straight years now, I guess, something like- You've done it that many years?... 20, yeah. I mean, I did it- I did not know that... I did it since, like, early college. Wow, okay. I did not know that.
26:10
Like, yeah, so I don't know, whatever, 20, maybe, whatever, 24 years ago, something like that. You were there, what, last year? Yes, I went last year, but it was not because I won the lottery. Right, okay. Yeah.
26:20
It was not because I won the lottery. I just had to buy third-party tickets. So yeah. Which also- Well, well, good luck... which by the way, they frown upon.
26:27
[laughs] That is, uh, that's the other thing, that they frown upon that. Like the- So, like, maybe you shouldn't say it on a national radio show...
26:33
you go, you go in and, uh, you go in and you get briefed by the people that are giving you these tickets as to where you got them, who you got them from. You learn, like, the family's backstory- Yep...
26:42
and all of that and everything because, like, it can only be gifted. It cannot be sold, right? And so you can't, uh, can't buy these things technically. Family's backstory? Oh, yeah. That is- You got this person-...
26:54
that is creepy, man... yeah, whatever, blah, blah, blah. They've had it in the family for whatever. They do this, that, whatever, and you got it because you're their, you're the cousin's brother-in-law or whatever.
27:03
You're the cousin's husband or something. Man. Yeah. Wonder if the Wilson family works. It's a covering your rear end thing. Yeah. You know, as well with all of that.
27:12
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27:17
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27:26
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27:33
Listen to the VSiN Daily Morning Bets podcast wherever you get your podcasts or get it on the VSiN Watch app as well. By the way, that VSiN Watch app, free to download at any of the, uh, stores out there that you...
27:45
Listen, let's just, let's just, let's, let's peel the curtain back again. I'm shaming you if you still have an Android phone. Just go and get an iPhone. Everybody doesn't like you. Everyone hates you.
27:55
They talk about you behind your back whenever your green message shows up in the thing. Uh, if you're like- Just go get an iPhone... if you're like me, they don't talk to you about, uh, about it behind your back.
28:01
They say it to your face. It's annoying as hell. Get an iPhone. Did you- Can't have these group messages. Did you have, did you, did you ever go Android ever- No... or you've, you've just been iPhone since day one?
28:11
No, since day one. Yeah. Yeah. I've ventured- S- since what? I wanna say, like, 0- uh, like, '06, '07, something like that.
28:19
I've ventured over one time for, like, three months because it was the, "We'll give you this awesome new phone absolutely free if you do," you know, whatever and all that.
28:29
And I was like, "Okay, how much different can it..." The answer's a lot different. Yeah. That's how, that's how different it can be. You, I felt like I didn't even know what was going on.
28:36
I didn't know how to answer the calls. I didn't know how to do anything. So it was just not, it was not fun. I don't like it. I went from Razor to iPhone, so whatever year that was.
28:43
Ooh, you- Those Razors were badass, though, back in the day- You were-... man. You kidding me? You, you were the cool kid. I was styling- Oh, yeah. You were the cool kid... in Florida with that Razor. You kidding me?
28:50
Yeah, you were the cool kid. Woo-hoo. You were the cool kid, and people that had Razors were cool. I did not, I did not have a Razor. Yeah. Yep, yep. I wish I, I wish I'd have had a Razor.
28:57
All right, so we're gonna head to Canada for this. TPC Toronto, RBC Canadian Open. It's about 7,400 yards, par 70 in this one here. Uh, Kelly, the field is very likely to...
29:11
I'm sure we're going to get some withdrawals today as well. Yeah. We kind of tend to see this with all of this. As we sit right now, Rory McIlroy is going to play. Ludvig is going to play.
29:20
But then the drop-off is, is pretty, uh, big from there. Down to Corey Conners, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Bob McIntyre. And then once you get past Bob McIntyre at 30 to 1, Kelly, the next guy, Harry Hall.
29:32
So that's, like, where we get... It, it is, like, a couple of big names, a couple mid names, and then it falls off a cliff pretty quickly. Yes, it does. I'm just scanning through this right now.
29:41
Yeah, I guess the names that you'd most wanna watch out for, I mean, Ludvig, Ludv- I'd imagine Conners is gonna play, but, like, Ludvig, Shane Lowry may be the most likely to, to withdraw if you're gonna have that.
29:53
Rory's gonna play. We know that. He skipped last week. Mm-hmm. Um, he's gonna- Yeah, Rory's gonna give it a go... yeah, has played here the past couple years now, so that, that, that should be expected.
30:02
Um, man, I don't know where you're at. I, I think odds at the top, I'm not really surprised by that +450. I, I, I think a few weeks ago I would've said this is gonna be sho- uh, R- uh, Rory a little shorter- Mm-hmm...
30:13
uh, in this event with the rest of the names that are in here, but I think +450, man, that, I, I think there's some, some concerns and some things Rory's- Sure... gotta work on before we head into the U.S. Open.
30:22
R- Rory is not, Rory is not Scottie. Scottie goes out, and Scottie is just automatic, right? Like, his swing is the same every single time. Everything works the same every single time. Everything is just programmed.
30:32
It, it's not the same way with Rory. I mean, like, we saw a couple years ago we didn't bet him because the wedges weren't working.
30:38
Then we got to a point where he was spraying off the tee a little bit too much for our liking.
30:41
There's, there, there, there's always seems to be at least something at work a little bit with Rory where you don't get that from a Scottie standpoint. That being said, I mean, +110 on top five,
30:53
it, it includes ties as well. Yeah. So, I mean, it, it's like, it, it includes ties That's at least somewhat tempting. I mean, unless he just completely falls off here in a course that is, is gettable.
31:04
Uh, I mean, it's a driver-heavy course, you know? And like, that's where he exceeds. I think I will be right back to a... Yeah, no, I like that. I like that.
31:13
The other one that's jumping out to me right now, I, f- look, I played it last week and finally lost, but it cashed, like, in six of the last seven tournaments in four-hand.
31:20
Co- of cour- I, I mean, Corey Conners, top 20- Mm... minus 110 staring me at the, is staring me in the face. Yeah. A, a Canadian guy, too. He's gonna wanna show up for his home, his home open, uh, play well.
31:30
Uh, yeah, I know you and I have been betting him pretty regularly here recently.
31:33
I, I don't know if I'm there for the, for the outright win yet with Corey Conners, but man, I think top 20 I'll keep, I'll keeping playing him in that market, at minus 110.
31:42
Pro- it's actually probably one of those, Matt, that I'll probably bet earlier in the week, 'cause I think that's only gonna get bet on and move, uh, to a shorter number.
31:49
So that might actually be one that I plu- plug in right after the show here.
31:52
I think for me, in this one, in a tournament in which, again, it's a driver-heavy course, which really is what separates Rory from the rest of the field,
32:01
I think I'm going to be looking at maybe firing on some of these longer shot guys, and then just kind of walking away from this tournament. And like, and just hoping that Rory finishes third or something- Yeah...
32:11
as opposed to winning it, because it's just, you know, he, he should win. I mean, like, you look at some of these dudes who-- Max Homa we have seen at least shades of the old Max Homa.
32:22
Now, he struggled mightily a couple different rounds. Played a good round as well this past week. He's out, like, at 60 to 1. Do you try to- He's, he's getting there number-wise.
32:32
It's like, yeah, it's like, do you tr- Like, that one jumped out to me. So I'm saying, like, do you try to, like, catch him on the, on, on the way up before things get crazy with him?
32:39
I mean, we've kind of seen a little bit of Wyndham Clark as well, where it's like he'll throw one good round in with two bad rounds. Can he figure it out? Has he got something going on?
32:49
I mean, maybe I'm just throwing it on some of these, like, s- 50, 60 to 1 dudes and then just moving on. I mean, Sam Burns is out to 30 to 1 in this weak field. Burns went 75, 65, 74,
33:02
like, at, at, uh, on the first three days of the Memorial this past week. So he literally shot 65- Yeah... on Friday, only to come back and shoot 74 again on Saturday.
33:11
So I mean, he's, you know, he's, he's as crazy as they come. Man, Seth Thigpen all the way down to 80 to 1 too now. Wow.
33:18
So, I, so this is what, th- this is what we're talking about, going back to your, your Scottie Scheffler rant a little bit.
33:23
It's, but we've seen a lot of the mid-range guys you can't really trust, and then some guys that were in the mid-range, like the Homos and the Thigpens and stuff, have just fallen off the face of the planet.
33:31
I, I, you can't back them with money right now. Unbelievable. The rant. Called it a rant yet again, Kelly. I expect better from you.
33:38
When we come back, from the west wing of whatever mansion that he is at across this country of ours, we're gonna have Ben Wilson in with us. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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