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Jun 2, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | June 2, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | June 2, 2026
00:00
39:10
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, Let's Go Places.
1:00
Jay Khan joins us now to talk Stanley Cup Final, Hurricanes, Golden Knights. He joins us from Toronto, Canada. The T-dot, the 6, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow Jay on Twitter, jaykhan4.
1:13
That's H-A-H-N. Co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on Sirius XM NHL. Jay, how you doing, man? I'm, I'm doing great. We're rooting for Oji Aliassime here north of the border.
1:23
Good chance for him, obviously, with some big names not factoring into this, uh, this slam here. So it's, it's kind of wide open. You read off all the names there.
1:31
I co- I could kind of buy into any of those guys winning the, the French Open here, Gil. So I'm looking forward to seeing what the, the rest of this week brings there. Yeah, it's been such an awesome tournament.
1:40
Uh, Stanley Cup Final begins tonight at Carolina. I was sort of framing it earlier, and I've been framing it as you have this team, Carolina, they're 12 and 1 in this playoff.
1:50
Only the, like, the, the longest, again, the best 16 win format run to the Cup, the A- Edmonton Oilers of 1988. 16 and 2. So you got that history they're chasing.
1:59
Then you got the Golden Knights who are kind of the opposite, right? They didn't even win 40 games in the regular season. Here they are in their third final in nine seasons of history.
2:10
Uh, tonight the Hurricanes are a minus 150 favorite. Let's start with the game tonight before we sort of break down the... W- let's go the other way. Let's go break down the entire series. Who do you feel?
2:21
I mean, do you feel that h- the Hurricanes are the justified favorite here?
2:26
I, I, I do, and I understand why people are going to make the case for this to be maybe close pricer to a pick him, or I'll-- I've honestly heard the opinion from people that I, I very much trust that they think Vegas should actually be the favorite in this series as well.
2:39
Hmm. So I'm, I'm hearing varying opinions, guys, but I, I've been Canes from the get-go. I love this Canes team.
2:44
I, I really like the way that they play, and some of the holes that they've had in previous years that have held them back where they've lost conference finals, now ultimately they reach their first Stanley Cup Final with this iteration of the Hurricanes.
2:55
Depth scoring, they've solved that. They really haven't even had a, a great playoff run from their top guys, which is kind of interesting, with only one loss. The defense is strong. They're getting goal tending.
3:04
So all those things that I felt held the Canes back in previous years, they fixed those issues. This just feels like such a cohesive unit, Gil.
3:11
This is one of the most dominant runs I think I can remember to a Cup Final- Yes... now that we look back at it at the big picture.
3:16
One loss, and it was a loss after 11 days off between games, and they, they didn't look like themselves at all in that game. Uh, they just looked completely lost.
3:25
The Habs took advantage, and other than that, it's been completely dominant. So I like the Canes. I think they're justified favorites, especially with home ice.
3:32
I do have respect for Vegas and how they got here sweeping the Colorado Avalanche. No easy task. They do come in in great form, and I, I think it sets up a heck of a Cup Final.
3:40
But I, if you ask me for a pick, I'm sticking with the Canes. I'd go Canes in six games in this series against Vegas. Canes in six is, uh, is a plus 450, uh, proposition. Series total game six, plus 210.
3:55
Six games either way is plus 210, but the Canes to win it in six, plus 450. And you're right.
3:59
Look, we're showing minus 155 on the series for the Canes as the favorite here, with the Golden Knights plus 130 on the comeback.
4:04
I'm seeing the Canes as, as low as minus 146 in some spots, and I, uh, you know, I framed it the way I framed it, and then I asked the question that doesn't make any sense, which is, "Do you think they should be the justified favorite?"
4:14
But I heard exactly what you did, which is some folks are like, "Hmm, I don't get it. I think the Knights should be the favorite."
4:18
It, it feels NBA Finals-esque to me a little bit too, of like this is the, the Western Conference Spurs, Carolina Hurricanes, and then you've got this- Yeah...
4:26
hot VGK team, the hot Knicks team, that has driven down this price, and I think there's some value on the favorite now. Would you, is that how you would put it, Jay? I, I, I think you're bang on with that, Kelly, really.
4:36
That's how I view it. Obviously, I'm, I'm more in the weeds here with the NHL, but I have been following the NBA, and I'm, I'm actually very excited for that NBA Finals.
4:43
And to, just to see what, what we get because you got the Spurs team that, eh, nobody's really surprised that they're there. We kind of thought, okay, one of them or OKC would be there.
4:51
And the Knicks just come in rolling teams, and I'm thinking are, is that just because they played in the East, or are they actually that good and can they give the Spurs a, a great series?
5:00
So I think that's how a lot of people are looking at this one. I believe Carolina's the better team. That doesn't mean they can't lose this series- Mm-hmm... and Vegas can't find ways to win.
5:07
They just beat Colorado in four games, and Colorado looked unbeatable all season long. So, uh, Vegas is, they're, they're well-coached. They seem to have a good thing going on. They're getting good goal tending.
5:16
There's certainly ways that they can frustrate Carolina in this series, and I can't wait to find out. But I, I'm gonna stick with the Canes.
5:22
They've been great to me throughout the playoffs so far, only losing one game and, and winning a lot of those games in very dominant fashion, guys. Let's do a little Brett Musburger NFL Today thing.
5:31
Uh, power play advantage goes to who? Power play advantage, I, I actually would have to give this to the, to the Vegas Golden Knights.
5:38
Uh, watching the, the, the Canes power play throughout the course of the postseason so far has left me frustrated. There was, there was a five on three that stood out in that Montreal series. Obviously, it didn't matter.
5:47
They won the series quite easily, and I thought, "Oh, boy, what are you guys doing here?"
5:51
So I, I think, look, obviously special teams are, are going to play a huge factor here, but I love what Vegas has done with their power play.
5:58
Uh, Pavel Dorofeyev is lethal on one side, Mitch Marner facilitating the puck, Jack Eichel kind of doing a little bit of everything, Mark Stone planted in front of the net.
6:05
I, I would like, I would take Vegas' power play right now Netminder advantage This is a tough one, guys, because, uh, part of me doesn't trust Frederik Andersen, but the numbers are there, and he has been really solid.
6:17
Now, they dipped a little bit in the conference final, but Carolina was so dominant that, again, it didn't really seem to matter. I'm gonna go with Frederik Andersen here, but it's...
6:26
Uh, I, I don't feel too confident with it. It feels like the bubble could burst at any moment for him. But I'm gonna lean to Andersen over, over Hart in this series.
6:33
Remember, Kelly, you mind the net in hockey, you keep the goal in soccer. Hmm. Always remember these. Um, okay, Conn Smythe. You have a bet there. So this, this, uh, this is a good one as well, guys.
6:45
Obviously on Vegas, it, it feels like it's shortened down a little bit. Mitch Marner is going to get a lot of the love, uh, justifiably so for what he's done on the Vegas side.
6:53
But if Vegas wins, keep an eye on Jack Eichel. The point total is there. I think he could have a big conference final, and you're...
6:59
Or, sorry, and a big cup final, and you're getting a really nice number on Jack Eichel, a player of his talent.
7:03
So if you're looking to jump in now, I think Eichel would be the play instead of, you know, paying a, a bad price on Mitch Marner. And on the Carolina side, give me Taylor Hall, part of that Hall-Blake-Stankoven line.
7:14
Someone to step up, maybe score the majority of the goals in the cup final, and you're still getting a pretty decent price on Taylor Hall.
7:20
So Hall on the Canes, Eichel on the Vegas Golden Knights side i- if you're looking to jump in pre-cup final. Okay. What I think was interesting about that whole thing is he's on the Hurricanes.
7:28
Jake, you're on the Hurricanes. But I think if you're a Vegas Golden Knight fan or backer listening to that, there was enough waiver in you for them to feel good about it. That pretty much describe it? I think.
7:39
I, I gotta have respect for what Vegas has done- Yeah... to get here.
7:41
As much as I love this Canes team, uh, they're, they're full marks for, for getting to where they've gotten to, and they, they do scare me if I'm a Canes fan. Taylor Hall, by the way, 7-1 to win the Conn Smythe.
7:50
Thank you, Jake. Appreciate it. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
8:01
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8:10
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
8:24
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
8:29
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
8:43
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
8:50
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
8:59
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
9:08
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
9:20
[laughs] Mark Bor- Mark Borchard joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. He's Base Winner at basewinner, basewinner.com. Bet us, uh, bet us, bet US, I should say, baseball betting show.
9:33
He joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, where he wants to talk some divisions with us. How you doing, Mark? Gil, I'm doing good. Um, uh, I, I can barely hear you, but I, but I did- Oh...
9:45
hear you say, "I wanna talk about the division," and I, I definitely want to talk about the divisions 'cause there's a lot of, like, really, I... for me at least, really good value. All right. Well, the floor is yours.
9:55
What do you got? We may jump on these. Well, I'll... You know what? I, I'll just go down division by, by division 'cause there's a lot of good ones. So the first one's the, the Yankees, and they're minus...
10:04
I almost said the Jankees. But the- [laughs]... the Yankees, they're [laughs] they're minus 220. I, I have them with an 82% chance to win that division. Uh, the other one I like is the, uh...
10:16
I, I like a lot of these teams. The, the Mariners are minus 170. I think that they, they're about 72% to win that division. Um, and then the Brewers, that might be my favorite one, Gil.
10:27
The Brewers I have winning that division 82% of the time. They're minus 165. So those are really good ones.
10:34
And then there, like, there's a, there's a market that's kind of fun, and if you model this stuff, uh, you can, you can model what the number one seeds are.
10:43
And so for the National League, the Brewers are plus 900 to be the number one seed, and, but based on my simulations, I think they should be plus 400. Uh, but the one that I thought was- Ooh, I like that...
10:55
was, was really interesting was, uh, was Philly. Philly is 40 to 1, and I think they should be, like, more th- like 13 to 1. Yeah. So there's, there's a bunch of plays out there.
11:06
I, I don't remember seeing this much value, uh, in, in the, in the division markets.
11:11
And then, uh, you know, if you go in and, and the, and the Brewers one is like if you go in and the Cubs are five and a half back, they're kind of, like, their main competition. All the components lead to the...
11:21
except for the offense. Now, the Cob- Cubs are, like, fifth offense, and the Brewers are, like, nine, but the pitching is really, I mean, starkly favoring the Brewers. So I...
11:29
that's probably my favorite play of, of all of those plays I just gave out is the Brewers to win that division.
11:34
I'm gonna guess that the three and a half minutes that Mark Borchard just had right there, or the three minutes, probably produced more bets in as many different directions right there as any three minutes you'll s- you'll hear today.
11:46
That's, that's awesome. All of... I, I kinda like all of them. I like the Yankees. I like the Mariners. I like the Brewers to win that division, though I do like the Cubs this month.
11:54
Um, and the Brewers' number one seed, again, the Dodgers loom, but remember the Brewers had the best record last year, right, over the Dodgers.
12:03
So, I mean, uh, you don't have to look far to, to see that it can happen Nine to one. Mark has it at four to one. A- about, by the way, did you model the month of June by any chance? I did. I did.
12:15
My, my teams were, uh, Believeland, your favorite, uh, but that wasn't my number one though. Philly's probably my number one team, uh, and then Cleveland and then the Yankees. They all showed value on the sims. Yeah.
12:27
Those are the three teams that showed the value. I had the Yankees as my two. Yeah, I had the Yankees as my two.
12:33
Uh, did y- have you a model, I'm gonna put you on the spot here, because a bet that I am thinking of making, I alluded to this yes- alluded to this yesterday, is worst record in Major League Baseball.
12:43
Um, right now, if you look at the standings, it is a log jam at the bottom of the Major League, uh, standings. You have at, I'll get these, uh, right here. I'll just call it up.
12:54
This is, right now you have the Colorado Rockies 23 and 38, the LA Angels 23 and 38, the Detroit Tigers 23 and 38, and then a half game better, the Kansas City Royals 23 and 37, and the San Francisco Giants 23 and 37.
13:10
You know what I'm thinking about? The Giants are the third shot at a distant 14 to one. Colorado and the Angels are the short shots. Who do you see value on there?
13:23
I can give you top five percentages, 'cause that'll put the Giants there, but it's really, it's really heavily weighted to those really crappy teams.
13:31
So I got 46% Rockies have the worst record, uh, 21% Angels, 11% Royals, uh, 10.55, so another 11% Tigers, and then you could say the Giants are 6%.
13:44
So whatever that comes out to, uh, on, on the, on the money line, which I don't think it's, is good for your bet. Well- But that, those are the probabilities I have.
13:51
But let me ask you about that market, unlike the other ones which, you know, clear path to what you're talking about. In this one, there's this, there's the trade deadline, right?
13:59
And there's the notion of buyers and sellers. Your model doesn't factor that in, I'm guessing. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I'm glad you brought that up, because this, I, it, I can't. I can't predict the future- Right...
14:10
on what these teams are gonna do.
14:12
I mean, you could guess a little bit, but then you're, you're gonna be guessing, and I, I'd rather have it like, hey, this is what, based on the, these, these components of the team, how they're set up right now, and then you can take a look at those, those probabilities and say, well, like what you're doing, you're like, "Well, hey, the Giants are gonna unload.
14:28
They're not gonna have- Yeah... their three best hitters," or whatever they're doing, and that, that makes a huge difference in it. So if it's close, then it would put it over the...
14:33
And I think it is pretty close from a probability standpoint. So- Yeah, 'cause I would, would- So I would agree with you on that, yeah.
14:38
Yeah, 'cause I would a- if the, if all rosters stayed the same throughout a season, I would agree with your numbers. But they are g- they are, they have to unload all of these players.
14:46
And I mean, before the draft, not even the trade deadline. So, 'cause I think that- Who do you think they're gonna get rid of? I'd hate to put you on the spot, but who do you- Oh...
14:53
do you think they're gonna get rid of Webb and, and, and Devers? I don't know about Webb, but I, I think, first of all, Ademas, first taker. Ademas, see you later. Uh, Chapman is on the block.
15:03
I think if Devers, if they got a good enough offer for Devers, I think he'd go. I don't want them to get rid of Arias or, uh, or, uh, Lee, but you know what? Everybody's available.
15:14
Everybody's available for the right price. It's a complete fire sale. It's a complete dis- again, we were just talking with Drew about football.
15:20
There's a, you know, a, a h- if everything goes r- right, you know, right for you, if everything goes bad. I always say this about baseball.
15:26
In 162 games, there is a season that breaks everything your w- right, everything your way. It's a g- best part of the spectrum. Then there's a season where everything goes against you, and there's everything in between.
15:36
The Giants are absolutely that. Everything they've touched, what's the opposite of gold? Whatever your word is, right? That's what's happened with them. And so they just...
15:46
By the way, Buster Posey, [laughs] he has not gotten criticism yet. Oh, it's coming if this continues, right? Like, they've gotta really revamp and start from scratch.
15:54
So that's, to me- Yeah, I think they get, I think they get a, a, a, a p- a, some kind of cushion, maybe like a year or two cushion, and then they'll, then they'll get on it.
16:02
But I guess so, I guess my number 6%, so that's like, uh, 15 to one, and then, but if you, if you put that in there, that'll, yeah, that'll, that'll, that should give you value on that play.
16:11
That's, that's a decent i- that's a decent look, Gil. Okay. What'd you end up with today? Well, today, speaking of the Brewers and the Yankees, I'm gonna put them in a parlay, Gil, your favorite, the base winner parlay.
16:21
[laughs] But you know, it's fitting because you got base winner B-A-S-S before me, and then you got base winner. So you have your own version of a base winner parlay. But, uh, I, [laughs] I've got the Yankees just...
16:32
God, the, the components of this team are so good. Best hitting, uh, team in baseball. And then this is controversial, 'cause I know you don't like the Yankees' bullpen. I, I don't hate it.
16:41
I mean, I don't love them, but they're 11th in baseball. And, uh, then Schlitter's just been tremendous. The, all the granular l- numbers are on his side.
16:49
And you wanna talk about granular, granular numbers, Gil, uh, Kyle Harrison, the same thing.
16:54
And then, uh, one of the things that we have going the Brewers and the Giants is we have a big bullpen edge as well in that game.
17:01
So I think that parlaying those two, getting even money, I think that's a, that's a good look on that. Brewers, Yankees, even money parlay. Anything, uh, straightforward side you wanna share with us?
17:11
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Diamondbacks here. And, and, uh, s- speaking of Diamondbacks, they're good to, to make the playoffs. They have about 54%, and you're still getting plus money in there.
17:20
But, uh, specifically today, you know the Dodgers, if you were to bet against the Dodgers on the road, just blanket betting, we always love to blanket bet, Gil.
17:28
[laughs] If you were just to bet the Dodgers on the road starting in 2025- Yeah... you'd be up 3.5%, which is decent in, in the, in the betting world. But today I've got the game priced at minus 141.
17:40
Uh, I, I like this, uh, this D-backs offense versus left-handed pitching. In fact, I like them so much they're rated number two in my ratings versus left-handed pitching. And that starts off with Marte and Carroll there.
17:52
You know, I've got them in a, in a side bet of to each get a hit, uh, and that's minus 140, and it should be like minus 186. So there's a lot of bets here, Gil. It's, it... [laughs] Wow.
18:02
I've got Kelly, Kelly writing down fastly. But, uh- Look at you... uh, yeah, so that's, those are my plays. That's fantastic. Mark Borchard, everybody. I don't even know if I said his name.
18:10
I just said base winner the whole time. Mark Borchard. I like when he catches himself. He goes, "We all like blanket bets, Gil." Oh, that was great. [laughs] That was a great line. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it.
18:17
My pleasure, Gil. Coming back on The Numbers Game. Paul Carr joins us, ladies and gentlemen, uh, from True Media Networks. You can follow him on Twitter at Paul Carr, C-A-R-R.
18:27
There are 12, 12, count them, 12 groups in the World Cup of 2026, and we really, uh, before we talk about anything else, Paul, because we, Paul has a, we're gonna do the first six of these groups today, A, B, C, D, E, and F.
18:44
We're gonna do the next six on Friday. Before we get to each of your picks in groups A through F, Paul, let us discuss, first of all, good morning to you, sir. How are you? Yeah. Hello. I'm well. Good morning.
18:55
Paul quipped off air. He goes, "Why did you read all those halftime scores from those basketball games?" Yeah. [laughs] From 1999. Full... 80 to 67. [laughs] 78 to 77. Unbelievable. Unbelievable.
19:06
Give us, give us a sense of the format, which is just bananas this year, where if I'm not mistaken- Yeah... eight of 12 third place teams advance? Correct. Yeah, this is a bad format from a competitive standpoint.
19:20
48 teams, 12 groups of four. Top two in each group advance, plus eight of 12 third place teams. So we're playing, uh, now I gotta math, 72 group games to eliminate a third of the field. 72 group games- Ugh...
19:34
to get rid of 16 teams. It's not great. And those third place teams advance, you're comparing them to each other. So if you play in Group A, you don't know what you have to do to be one of the best third place teams.
19:45
Oh, that's right. You have a general sense. That's right. But if you're in Group K, you're playing the last day, you know exactly what you have to do. So- Hmm...
19:52
that's unfair just from a competitive standpoint, and there's a decent chance we see a team or two settle for a draw when they're one, in one of those later groups, 'cause they know that's all they have to do to get through.
20:02
That is, it, if, that is an even extra layer that I hadn't thought of, that makes it just- It's really bad... it's really bad. And it makes for, as we, as we go through these now, let's start with Group A.
20:13
It, it's, y- so you have, uh, I guess this, the translation of this is do you have any, like, team to advance bets, or you st- steered clear of all those? I th- I think I have one. I think I gave out Panama- Yeah...
20:24
uh, on the show, like, plus 220 or so. But yeah, there's groups where all four teams are favored to advance. Like, the- [laughs]... worst one is minus 110, because it's a balanced group, and just that's what it is.
20:36
Or there's lots of groups where I like the third-best team, like a Senegal, but they're still minus 230 to go through or something like that.
20:43
So I don't have as many of those plays as I would have in a normal, better formatted tournament. So yeah, I had to look some different places for this one. All right. Let's start with Group A.
20:51
This is the Mexico group, if you will. These, again, the World Cup 2026 hosted in Mexico, in the United States, in Canada. Mexico on their home soil here.
20:59
They are with South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia in their group. Uh, I would imagine Mexico is the favorite. Yes, they are, minus 110. Yeah.
21:09
And just the, the buzz is I'm hearing a little South Korea love from some folks. How do you feel about this group? Uh, I do. I like South Korea. I like Czechia. Um, actually, I, I played South Korea a while back.
21:20
Czechia's odds were, like, plus 240 or something to win the group not too long ago, and they've jumped up to plus 330. So I do like the plus 330 price, price on Czechia.
21:29
Um, they have Patrick Schick, who led Euros in scoring a couple tournaments ago, so they have a good forward, which not every team does.
21:35
Patel Schulz is a midfielder, plays for Lyon in France, may be coming to the Premier League this summer. Uh, just good young midfielder who can really make them go. Uh, so at that price, I like them.
21:44
You know, Mexico is the best team, the highest ceiling in this group, but they've had a lot of injuries, especially on the back line.
21:50
They haven't totally figured out, uh, their attack either, even though they have a couple good forwards. So just a lot of questions about Mexico.
21:57
But so, sure, if, if I'm playing this straight, I'm still taking Mexico to win the group. But I got plus 330 on Czechia. I like that. I don't mind plus 350 on South Korea either.
22:06
Okay, but the bet is Czechia plus 330 to win Group A- Yep... from Paul. Group B, which is Canada's group, if you will.
22:14
Canada on their home soil, but Switzerland is the favorite, minus 125, followed by Canada, and then Bosnia and Qatar. What do you got? Yeah.
22:23
All these groups that have a host nation, so the hosts were seeded, uh, along the other nine best teams in the world. So these groups are all more balanced.
22:32
So yeah, you see Switzerland's actually the group favorite here. I like that even at a minus 125 price.
22:37
Uh, Switzerland has made the knockout stage at three straight World Cups, and the only other teams to do that at the last three, if I remember correctly, are Argentina, Brazil, and France.
22:46
So Switzerland is not that good, but they're a steady team. They've made the quarters at Euros the last couple times. Uh, they are what, it's some, I love it when the stereotypes come through- Oh...
22:56
at tournaments like this. Like, Switzerland is just, like, a steady clockwork type of team that's gonna give you- Totally... exactly what you think.
23:02
[laughs] Like, it's a stereotype, and it's been absolutely true for the last 10 plus years. So they're just a, a steady, good, solid team, a good mid-tier European team. Canada's got some injury questions.
23:13
Uh, Bosnia, you know, let's say pretty low ceiling for them. And Qatar, you know, they couldn't get out of the group stage at home. I don't think they're much better now.
23:20
So Switzerland minus 125, I like to win this group. [laughs] Positive stereotypes that exist in the world- It's so great... cup.
23:26
It reminds me of when my, my dad used to say some stuff, and I used to be like, "You can't, you can't say," yeah. I was like, "You can't say." He goes, "What do you mean? I'm saying something good about them."
23:33
I was like- Yes. [laughs] And my dad would be like, "The Albanians, they build great walls." It's, it- I'm like, "Really? Do you think they have something in there?" We, we do it at golf all the time too. Yeah.
23:40
It's like, "Well, it's windy and rainy out. Let's look at some of the Scottish players and English players." I'm like, "Do you know how many rounds for sure that they've played in rain and wind?"
23:49
Uh, let's go to group- Yeah... Group C, where it seems like everybody could agree that Scotland is third and Haiti is fourth. Um- Eh. Oh, okay, maybe not. Ooh. So this is my play here. I like Scotland- Yeah...
24:01
to finish at the bottom. Ooh. Um, at the price. Look. Oh, at the bottom, yeah. You see a plus 550 here. Uh, I s- I played it at plus 700 a week or so ago, but anything north of 500, I like.
24:11
So here, here's the gist of it. Brazil and Morocco are by far the best teams in the group. So we just assume they're gonna beat Moroc- or beat Scotland and beat Haiti.
24:19
So it comes down to Haiti and Scotland, which is in the opener.
24:22
Uh, it's in Boston, if I remember correctly, so we're rooting for, like, a blazing hot day, uh, where Haiti, you know, again We're playing to stereotypes a little bit, but these are also true, and it's played out historically at World Cups.
24:33
Teams from this region tend to do better in this region, uh, because in part they're used to the weather, et cetera. Haiti's like plus 185 on the double chance against Scotland here.
24:42
If they win that game, then they're pretty much in the driver's seat to finish third. Uh, even if it's a draw, then it just comes down to who can not lose to Morocco and Brazil as badly.
24:51
So I like Scotland to finish fourth in this group at, at least plus 550 or so. All right.
24:57
So group A, uh, Paul had Czechia to win at plus 330, Switzerland to win group B at minus 125, Scotland, as he gave out last week, to finish last in group C at seven to one.
25:08
And then we get to group D, the United- Oh, boy. Uh, real quick, Gil. Just wanted, just wanna circle back on that, Paul, 'cause I searched all over the place last week for, like, that seven to one price on Scotland.
25:18
Mm-hmm. Over five to one you're okay with. Anything over five to one? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I don't, I didn't see the seven to one this morning that I got last week.
25:24
That, that's dropped down to, it was, yeah, plus 500 or plus 550. Okay. Good clarification. Group D, the United States. Um, tell me if you agree with this. Mm-hmm. Yes.
25:34
No side is great here, but top to bottom it's one of the better groups, and doesn't that suck for us? Yeah. The, the positive way of looking at the group is there's no traditional power.
25:47
There is nobody in here definitively better than the US. The downside is there is no terrible team here. [laughs] I don't know, man. I don't know. I wouldn't say it's- Ugh... like, it's the most balanced group.
25:57
This is the one where Australia's the fourth-best team, and I think they're minus 110 to advance. So that's the downside. Um, the US has played all these teams in the last year, and all of them were one-goal games.
26:09
You know, the US beat Paraguay, they beat Australia, uh, they lost to Turkey. So that kind of tells you the, there's not a ton of margin for error, for better and worse, in this group.
26:18
So what I ended up, what I like the most here, uh, is Australia to finish at the bottom, plus 110. Uh, you might be able to find a little bit better price out there. Uh, Australia has the lowest ceiling, for sure.
26:29
They just don't have a lot of offensive firepower.
26:32
Uh, not as much, definitely not as much as Turkey, not as much as the US, uh, not even as much as Paraguay, which is a little bit more of a defensive-minded squad on the whole. So I just don't think that Australia...
26:42
They, they don't have the upside. So playing them to finish fourth, you know, wouldn't expect them to get a win. Maybe they grind out a draw or two. Uh, but again, it's a very balanced group.
26:51
Australia did beat Argentina, uh, or gave Argentina trouble four years ago. So I like Australia to finish fourth, but the margin for error in this group is very slim all around.
27:02
So Australia to finish last in group D is the play from Paul, plus 115. And remember with the USA, all we have to do is be one of the eight best of the 12 third-place teams. Right. Right?
27:15
That's all that has to happen here. If, if the US doesn't get out of the group- Oh, boy... the tournament is an utter catastrophe. Like, utter catas- They're like minus 750 to get out of the group or something like that.
27:24
So yeah, I think par for the US in this tournament is to reach the round of 16. So that's get out of the group. Uh- Par is 16...
27:31
if you finish first or second in the group, you, you should get a favorable knockout match-up, and then you get to the round of 16 and, you know, you're probably gonna run into a better team there.
27:39
But yeah, par is the round of 16. Don't, don't get there. It's probably a disappointing tournament, unless, you know, you get some weird round of 32 draw, get some much better team and put up a good fight or something.
27:48
But really, round of 16 is the par. I like looking at it that way. Okay, we promised six groups. We got two more to get to. Groups E and F, Paul's bets there.
27:57
That's next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
28:00
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
28:27
Back on Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Don't forget about our, uh, VSiN early bird special. Full VSiN pro access until the Super Bowl, $175. That is it.
28:40
Daily best bets, betting splits, data, AI-powered prop rejections, 24/7 video access, NFL betting guide also in there. That comes out June 22nd. That comes out in less than three weeks. Can you believe that? Wow.
28:52
We got, we got homework due next week, bud. Oh, you keep reminding me. Yeah. VSiN.com/subscribe for that full VSiN pro early bird special access until the Super Bowl. Check it out.
29:05
Don't just check it out, but follow through. We got tweets we need in the book. Uh, Dusty at dustynoel7, "Kelly Bidwill gets his Crown package before Greg gets his Texas Roadhouse package.
29:15
We need Hoops to get his package ASAP." Would you explain? Uh, thank you Crown Royal for, uh, listening to the show and, uh, sending me whiskey after, uh, I said it was my favorite whiskey, which is. It is. My go-to.
29:27
I leave for one, I leave for one second and you got a Crown Royal sponsorship. I, I, we, let's not go that far- Oh... just yet. Just yet. Hopefully. Hopefully. Money Capper Letty.
29:38
I just have to read this one tweet about our buddy Greg yesterday. We, we love Greg Peterson. Greg is such a nice kid. And I, I...
29:44
We started something yesterday on the show, and it, it took, it spiraled out on Twitter yesterday. I, yeah, go check his Twitter out.
29:49
But Money Capper Letty says, "Good Lord, could you imagine if she did need emergency care and Greg was a suspect?" I hadn't even thought about all that, right? Class act, he says. [laughs] That's good. He is a class act.
29:58
Now you just had 900 p- more people be like, "What did Gil just say? What is he talking about?" [laughs] String Fellow Hawk, "Paul Carr's handicap of the Champions League match was spot on.
30:07
I was 10 toes down on both plays, and Arsenal would've won one-nil 10 times out of 10." Nice job by Paul Carr. You know what, Gil? I went over to this little website called yahoo.com. Mm-hmm.
30:18
And today I see a big old article from one Paul Carr sa- titled The World Cup's Next Cinderella? Nine Teams That Could Make a Surprise Run to the Quarters. Wow. We'll get, we'll get to that momentarily. Brian M
30:32
Uh, is the Kelly Biddle in strategy to betting international soccer the country he can find on the map faster instead of betting the team he has heard of versus the team he hasn't?
30:40
Assuming Kelly knows the countries of the world. Hmm. B- B Earl Nelson. Hmm. I like a, I like an initial and then two names. Yeah. B Earl Nelson, "I'm riding with your confidence on Kostiuk.
30:51
I took her to win the women's side, along with Verve to win the men's in a parlay. I had a boost on FanDuel, so I got it at plus 1066." Let's go. And SuperJerk, [laughs] you ready for this?
31:02
"Yeah, I'm on the edge of my seat in anticipation for the Haiti-Scotland game." [laughs] SuperJerk. SuperJerk has not- Why doesn't he tweet at me anymore? [laughs] Because he doesn't, he forgot who you were.
31:15
He used to tweet at us separately. I don't get any tweets from him. Oh, God. Torch D, the one who put the sad in your panties, "This most certainly will not bite me in the tuchus."
31:22
He says, "Bet one, parlay Mensik to win at least one set, plus Nick's championship plus 249, or bet two, Victor Wembanyama MVP minus 175. It is possible to middle this," [laughs] he says. Uh, well, we'll see.
31:36
Um, Patrick Kelly, "Any reasonable reason why DraftKings has all the groups jumbled up in the to finish last? J-I-A-G-E-B-K-C-F-L-H-D." That's how they list them apparently. That is true. I don't know.
31:49
I don't know, but if you're watching- He said it's like they're trying to spell out fakakt there or something. [laughs] That's very... If you're watching- Yeah...
31:56
on YouTubeTV, reviews.com, Danny Higgins has done a great job of putting all the markets. We did group winner- Yes... runner-up to qualify and to finish dead last. Absolutely great. Great job by Danny Higgins.
32:06
Group winner, runner-up to qualify from group, and then to finish bottom. Four columns on each of these group graphics. Paul Carr joins us once again to, uh, discuss group C and F, but, uh, what about your Yahoo work?
32:18
What are you doing over there, Paul? Well, yeah, writing all kinds of pieces. Some betting, some not. Uh, you know, the one you just mentioned, Kelly, was, uh, next Cinderella team, so we can get through.
32:28
We've got a viewer's guide. So if you're a beginner and wanna jump in, there's one just kind of, all right, what do I need to know here?
32:33
Uh, if you wanna do some sort of pick'em game, I ta- talk through group winners and runners-up for all the groups. Who could go out early?
32:40
Uh, there's some more coming, and we'll have, you know, once a week or so some picks during the tournament as well. So keeping me busy over there. All right. Paul's the senior- Love it...
32:47
director, can, can you flash that back again? Senior Director of Media. I never get to see it. That's close enough. Senior Director of Media, and what else at, at True Media?
32:53
And bus- of bus- uh, and Business Operations at True Media Networks. Thank you. There we go. Thank you. I don't know what that means, but yeah. Yeah, that's what you do. You, you bring in the money. All right.
33:02
Let's go to- Something like that... let's go to Group E. In one of the biggest upsets of World Cup handicapping, Paul is not taking Germany to win this group, as we've learned earlier. Remind us who you're taking. Yeah.
33:14
Uh, I'm taking Ecuador at that price. They're plus 370 now. I have them plus 400. You might be able to find that out there somewhere still. Uh, this is one of the Cinderella teams I think can make a run.
33:22
Ecuador gave up five goals in 18 games in CONMEBOL qualifying. They tied a record there. So they've got a really solid defense, and, you know, that's what you need a lot of times as a foundation to, to build on.
33:33
So, uh, Germany is still good. They're still the group favorite, and rightfully so, but I don't think they have the high ceiling that they've typically had.
33:40
Now, a lot of people said that in 2014, and they won the World Cup, so they'll probably make me look bad here. But I like Ecuador to win the group at that price, the plus 370 or plus 400, if you can find it.
33:49
Curaçao in their first ever World Cup. Yeah. So Italy, Italy has to sit at home and watch sides like Curaçao play in the World Cup. Yep. Yeah.
33:59
Hey, they missed, Italy's missed three World Cups in a row, and in the middle of that they won a European championship. So I don't, I don't know what that means, but- [laughs]...
34:05
if you can't make a 48 team World Cup, then, you know, that's on you. Ecuador to win Group E from Paul, again at four to one. All right, let's go to Group F. Maybe this is the best group from top to bottom.
34:17
Uh, the Netherlands- Maybe... are the favorite at minus 125. Japan, always frisky. Sweden- Yeah... Tunisia. What do you got here? I like this Japan team a lot.
34:28
They, two of their starters are injured and not here, but they still have a roster that's playing all over Europe. So four years ago, we'll, we'll flash back. Four years ago, Japan was in a group with Spain and Germany.
34:40
Japan beat both of them and won the group, and, uh, then went out to Croatia on penalties in the knockout stage. Uh, in the last year, Japan has beaten Brazil and they've beaten England.
34:49
Uh, these are just friendlies, but it's something. Uh, this Japan s- side, they are really fun to watch. They press high, they move quickly with and without the ball.
34:58
This is not your stereotypical Asian team that's like finesse and whatever. Like, Japan will get after you physically, um, and move quickly. So I like this Japan team a lot.
35:07
I like them to win the group, plus 275 on the screen, plus 300's out there as well. Uh, so yeah, Netherlands is a good team.
35:14
I mean, they're, again, rightfully the group favorite, but Japan is not scared of these giants and they could win this group, I think, again, more than one out of four, one out of, yeah, four times that you need for this price.
35:24
All right, to review then, from Group A, Czechia to win Group A plus 330. Switzerland to win Group B from Paul at minus 125. Scotland to finish last in Group C, um, anything five to one-ish is good.
35:36
He got it at seven to one. Yeah. Aus- Australia, last in Group D at plus 115. Ecuador to win Group E at four to one. And then Japan just now to win Group F at three to one.
35:46
We will do groups G, H, I, J, K, and L on Friday. By the way, do we have, uh, Paul's other bets from earlier, uh, in appearances as well? Again, this, this World Cup needs to happen or Paul's gonna have 75 bets.
36:00
Um- Yeah, it might be too late already. [laughs] Um, I'm gonna ask Paul which he, which he enjoys the most of these bets, but he's got France to win it all at plus 750.
36:07
Ecuador, ooh, there's a couple of these that, that were, uh, crossover, so we already saw the Ecuador, uh- Sure... to win Group E. But Colombia to win Group K, pr- portent of things to come on Friday, uh, plus 250.
36:18
Panama to advance, plus 225, his one and only to advance bet. Scotland to finish last we went over today in Group C. And then Repino to win Golden Boot, to win the Golden Boot at 33 to 1. Yeah.
36:29
And Mikel Oyarzabal to win the Golden Boot at 30 to 1. Are you feeling good about those Golden Boot bets still? I am. The Oyarzabal one might be gone.
36:39
I've s- he's, he's down under minus or plus 2,000 now, so that one, I don't think I would play that at plus 1800, wherever it is now. Raphinha is still in the 30 to one range, so I still like that. I mean,
36:49
again, we're looking at the schedule here. Brazil's playing Haiti, they're playing Scotland. Those are two far worse teams, and a big opportunity for Raphinha to rack up some goals in the group stage.
36:59
Uh, expected to take penalties as well. We always talk about that as important in these tournaments to pick up an extra couple of goals or so. So yeah, Raphinha is, you know, Vini Jr.
37:09
from Real Madrid is kind of maybe a little more of the star here, but Raphinha, uh, could easily pile up, you know, two, three goals against Haiti and/or Scotland and then be in good shape once they hit the knockout stage.
37:19
I asked you this earlier, this has nothing to do with betting, but I'm just curious. Where, where do the ticket prices stand? What's that whole culture looking like right now?
37:28
On the whole, they seem to be drifting down, uh, from, you know, it's just been kind of a mess the way FIFA has rolled this out because FIFA wants all the money.
37:37
And so some of those high prices that we saw, you know, a month or two or three or six ago aren't quite there anymore. I mean, they're still expensive, but they're drifting down.
37:47
So I suspect if you're kind of on the fence, you're probably gonna be better off waiting.
37:51
You know, maybe some of the marquee games won't drop much, but if you're on the fence about going to a game near you, I think the tickets will only continue to drop in the next few weeks.
37:59
Uh, Parlay, Jeff Parlay, producer number, uh, five and eight, the Grover Cleveland of producers was telling us- Yeah... he applied, what was it, to like eight different venues, something like that, in the US- Yeah...
38:09
he, and he ended up getting one of them at SoFi, and I- I was just trying to think of this. I don't remember the match he's going to. Was it Paraguay and somebody? I thought it was Switzerland, actually. Oh, maybe.
38:19
Maybe it was. Anyway, it was like- Yeah... he was hoping for, you know- Switzerland and Bosnia, maybe? Oh, maybe that's it. Maybe he got Switzerland and Bosnia. Maybe, yeah. Yeah, I think so.
38:26
I think he got Switzerland and Bosnia. So yeah, he'll just fly, he just flies out of Vegas in the morning, goes to the, goes to SoFi, flies back at night. Yeah. So anyway.
38:34
But that- Yeah, I, I get to go to some Kansas City games, including Ecuador/Curaçao, so that's gonna be a fun one. Okay. Ecuador/Curaçao. [laughs] Uh, throw out the- Yeah...
38:41
throw out the records when those two countries play each other. Throw 'em out. Throw 'em out. Lots of yellow in the stadium. Both yellow jerseys there. Paul, I appreciate it very much. Um, nine days away, man.
38:51
Try not to make more bets, okay? All right. This, this is enough. All right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Good luck with that. Okay. Paul Carr, everybody, @PaulCarr on Twitter, and again, check out all his stuff at Yahoo!. Mm-hmm.
39:01
Betting, non-betting when it comes to the World Cup, including nine Cinderellas that could make some noise. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it
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